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The Influence of Climatic Change on Price Fluctuations in Germany During the 16th Century Price Revolution
Abstract
In our paper we analyze the influence of climatic changes on annual price fluctuations (harvest year) of agricultural products in Germany during the 16th century price revolution. The price series under analysis are from Nuremberg, Cologne, Augsburg, and Munich. The prices are compared with quarterly climatic indices for Germany, which cover the observation period 1500-1599. The main finding is that the length of the vegetation period is an important factor in determining grain price fluctuations. During the climatic deterioration in the 16th century, there is some evidence that the impact of climate (and therefore of supply fluctuations) on grain price fluctuations increases.
... This research direction, represented over the past decades by numerous studies from various countries, has demonstrated this relationship. For instance, studies conducted in Switzerland (Pfister, 1988), Germany (Bauernfeind and Woitek, 1999), Sweden (Edvinsson, 2009), England (Campbell, 2010;Campbell and Ó Gráda, 2011;Pribyl, 2017;Bekar, 2019), the Burgundian Low Countries (Camenisch, 2015), Finland (Huhtamaa, 2018), Sweden,40 Switzerland, and Spain (Ljungqvist et al., 2023), and across Europe (Esper et al., 2017;Ljungqvist et al., 2022), have all shown such relationships. Novotný (1963) analyzed wheat and rye prices in Moravia (eastern Czech Republic) before 1618 CE, focusing on their dependence on "the natural character of the year". ...
... Our analysis of seasonal temperature and precipitation did not find statistically significant effects on grain prices in southwestern Bohemia for 1725-1824 CE, except for MAM temperatures, which partially aligns with findings from other European studies. For instance, Bauernfeind and Woitek (1999) noted the duration of the vegetation period (i.e., temperature effects) as a crucial factor influencing annual grain prices in German cities like Nuremberg, Cologne, Augsburg, and Munich 515 during 1500-1599 CE. They also reported a particular positive impact of DJF precipitation and low SON temperatures on prices. ...
Grain prices in early modern Europe reflected the effects of weather on crop yields and a complex array of societal and socio-economic factors. This study presents a newly-developed series of grain prices for Sušice (southwestern Bohemia, Czech Republic) for the period 1725–1824 CE, based on various archival sources. It aims to analyze their relationships with weather and climate, represented by temperature, precipitation, and drought (self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, scPDSI) reconstructions, as well as particular weather extremes and anomalies reported in documentary evidence. Wheat, rye, barley, and oats series in Sušice showed high mutual correlations. The highest prices in mean annual variations typically occurred from May to July before the harvest, while prices usually declined afterwards. Wheat, rye, and barley prices were significantly negatively correlated with spring temperatures and positively correlated with scPDSI from winter to summer. This indicates that wetter winters, cooler and wetter springs, and wetter summers contributed to higher prices. The extremely high grain prices in the years 1746, 1771–1772, 1802–1806, and 1816–1817 were separately analyzed with respect to weather/climate patterns and other socio-economic and political factors. The results obtained were discussed in relation to data uncertainty, factors influencing grain prices, and the broader European context.
... More recently, the science of economic history has focused on the influence of climatic changes on important economic and demographic variables (e.g. Bauernfeind and Woitek, 1999;de la Croix et al., 2009;Edvinsson, 2005Edvinsson, , 2009aEdvinsson, , 2009bJutikkala, 1975;Le Roy Ladurie, 1971;Pfister, 1988;Utterström, 1988). This paper investigates the relationships between prevailing temperatures, crop yields and domestic agricultural prices in Sweden over the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, the period of rising influence of globalisation in the study region (e.g. ...
... Several economic historians have investigated the influence of past climate changes on economic and demographic variables (e.g. Bauernfeind and Woitek, 1999;Jutikkala, 1975;Le Roy Ladurie, 1971;Pfister, 1988;Pfister and Brázdil, 1999). Our study lends support to the idea that climatic and economic fluctuations are related to one another, at least when crop yield is a strong determinant of price. ...
Climate and weather variation affect agricultural productivity, with consequences for both overall food availability and the wider economy. Knowledge of these processes has implications for understanding historical demography and predicting effects of climate change on societies. We studied the relationships between ambient temperature and the yields and prices of principle grains (wheat, rye, barley oats) in Sweden from 1803 to 1914. We found that the annual general crop index (a measure of overall crop yield) correlated negatively with the annual average price of the four grains. Overall temperature during the period of crop growth was related positively to general crop index and negatively to average crop price. At the level of month of crop growth, when the relationship between temperature and general crop index was most positive, that between temperature and average crop price was most negative. This strong structured relationship was found to be consistent when yields of each crop were considered separately, and indicates that the relationships between crop yield and crop price were to a large extent due to the influence of ambient temperature. Price correlations between pairs of crop species were in all cases greater than the correlation of yields. Within individual crops, correlations between price and yield were stronger for those crops for which imports were not available, and which were therefore subject to the weakest influence from rising globalisation. Our analyses demonstrate the sensitivity of historical agriculture to climatic factors, and the extent to which this affected the wider economy. It is likely that the susceptibility of agriculture to climatic risks was ascended by the concomitant climate regime, the ‘Little Ice Age’. Moreover, our study period spans the period of rising globalisation, and suggests a weakening influence of prevailing weather on crop prices.
... The complex relationship between weather and climate, harvests, and grain prices has long been studied, primarily in local, regional, or national settings (e.g. Pfister, 1988;Hildebrandt and Gudd, 1991;Bauernfeind and Woitek, 1999;Brázdil and Durd'áková, 2000;Holopainen et al., 2012;Camenisch, 2015;Huhtamaa et al., 2015;Yin et al., 2015;Pribyl, 2017;Skoglund, 2022;Brázdil et al., 2024a). In recent years, several studies have explored this connection on a broader territorial scale. ...
Public granaries served as key infrastructure to improve food security in agrarian societies. Their history dates to the oldest complex societies, but they experienced a boom period during the 18th and early 19th centuries in Europe. In Bohemia and Moravia (modern-day Czech Republic), numerous granaries were established by decree in 1788 to provide serfs with grain for sowing in the face of fluctuating weather. Here, we analyse granary data from 15 out of a total of 17 considered domains in the Sušice region (southwestern Bohemia) from 1789 to 1849 CE. We use the documented annual values of grain borrowed by serfs, their grain depositions, total grain storage, and the total debt of serfs at the end of the year as proxies for harvest quality and size. Based on the series of these four variables, we calculate weighted grain indices, considering the balance between borrowed and returned grain: a weighted bad harvest index (WBHI), a weighted good harvest index (WGHI), a weighted stored grain index (WSGI: WSGI-, more borrowed than returned; WSGI+, more returned than borrowed), and a weighted serf debt index (WSDI: WSDI+, more borrowed than returned grain; WSDI-, more returned than borrowed grain). WBHI, WSGI-, and WSDI+ were used to select years of extremely bad harvests, while WGHI, WSGI+, and WSDI- were used to identify years of extremely good harvests. We tested selected extreme harvest years against documentary weather data and reconstructed temperature, precipitation, and drought series from the Czech Lands. We discuss the uncertainty in the data and the broader context of the results obtained. The findings document the potential of this new methodology using widely available public granary data as proxies for historical climatological research.
... The study indicated that such price instabilities have led to many uncertainties within the food industry (Reilly, 1994). It was also noted that the extent to which climate change has severely impacted the regions differs, leading to the commodity production period being critical in determining the extent to which the price will fluctuate (Bauernfeind & Woitek, 1999). The results of Discriminant scores and levels of explanatory variables are presented in Table 3 below. ...
Climate change negatively affects food security, threatening agricultural sustainability, particularly in grassroots communities. The impact of climate change has significantly influenced agricultural price dynamics, leading to the interrupted and reduced food supply. Furthermore, climate change has increased agricultural production costs; meanwhile, farmers settle for minimum selling prices for survival. With the continuous farming adjustment to adapt to climate change, the study focused on investigating market price dynamics between contracted and non-contracted sunflower farmers because of climate change. The study was conducted in the North-West province, rich in tourism and agricultural production. A simple random sampling technique was used to select a sample size of 257 participants. Data was
collected through interviews with the farmers; 257 questionnaires were administered during face-to-face interviews. The Discriminant analysis method was used to draw differences in
market price dynamics between the two groups. The study's findings revealed that only contracted farmers enjoy selling their produce at a stable selling price. The study also revealed that non-contracted farmers sell at a minimum price to survive. Furthermore, the study revealed that non-contracted farmers lose their produce due to high spoilage. Therefore, the study
recommends that there should be tighter regulatory standards for rural markets to minimize price volatility as they enhance sustainability among sunflower farmers, particularly non-contracted ones.
... Despite the scepticism expressed by many historians, modern research has detected a robust influence of climate-induced harvest variations on both grain prices and real wage levels across early modern Europe. 4 Dry summers were 4 See, for example, Pfister (1988Pfister ( , 2005 for Switzerland, Pfister and Brázdil (1999) for Central Europe more generally, Brázdil and Durd'áková (2000) for the Czech Republic, Bauernfeind and Woitek (1999) for Germany, Edvinsson et al. (2009) for Sweden, Huhtamaa (2018) for Finland, and Esper et al. (2017) for entire Europe. Some studies have also addressed the medieval period with somewhat mixed results. ...
... Despite the scepticism expressed by many historians, modern research has detected a robust influence of climate-induced harvest variations on both grain prices and real wage levels across early modern Europe. 4 Dry summers were 4 See, for example, Pfister (1988Pfister ( , 2005 for Switzerland, Pfister and Brázdil (1999) for Central Europe more generally, Brázdil and Durd'áková (2000) for the Czech Republic, Bauernfeind and Woitek (1999) for Germany, Edvinsson et al. (2009) for Sweden, Huhtamaa (2018) for Finland, and Esper et al. (2017) for entire Europe. Some studies have also addressed the medieval period with somewhat mixed results. ...
Grain was the most important food source in early modern Europe ( c . 1500–1800), and its price influenced the entire economy. The extent to which climate variability determined grain price variations remains contested, and claims of solar cycle influences on prices are disputed. We thoroughly reassess these questions, within a framework of comprehensive statistical analysis, by employing an unprecedentedly large grain price data set together with state-of-the-art palaeoclimate reconstructions and long meteorological series. A highly significant negative grain price–temperature relationship (i.e. colder = high prices and vice versa) is found across Europe. This association increases at larger spatial and temporal scales and reaches a correlation of - 0.41 considering the European grain price average and previous year June–August temperatures at annual resolution, and of - 0.63 at decadal timescales. This strong relationship is of episodic rather than periodic (cyclic) nature. Only weak and spatially inconsistent signals of hydroclimate (precipitation and drought), and no meaningful association with solar variations, are detected in the grain prices. The significant and persistent temperature effects on grain prices imply that this now rapidly changing climate element has been a more important factor in European economic history, even in southern Europe, than commonly acknowledged.
... Meteorological variables other than droughts influence harvests and yields of agricultural crops (grain in particular), which can again be reflected in grain prices. For example, Bauernfeind and Woitek (1999) analysed fluctuations in annual grain prices in the German cities of Nuremberg, Cologne, Augsburg and Munich for 1500-1599. They drew attention to the fact that the duration of the vegetation period was an important factor in determining grain price fluctuations, reporting in particular a positive impact of precipitation in DJF and low SON temperatures on grain prices. ...
The Czech Lands are particularly rich in documentary sources that help elucidate droughts in the pre-instrumental period (12th–18th centuries), together with descriptions of human responses to them. Although droughts appear less frequently before 1501, the documentary evidence has enabled the creation of a series of seasonal and summer half-year drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI; Z index) for the Czech Lands for the 1501–2017 period. Based on the calculation of return period for series of drought indices, extreme droughts were selected for inclusion herein if all three indices indicated a return period of ≥20 years. For further analysis, only those from the pre-instrumental period (before 1804) were used. The extreme droughts selected are characterized by significantly lower values of drought indices, higher temperatures and lower precipitation totals compared to other years. The sea-level pressure patterns typically associated with extreme droughts include significantly higher pressure over Europe and significantly lower pressure over parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Extreme droughts with a return period ≥50 years are described in detail on the basis of Czech documentary evidence. A number of selected extreme droughts are reflected in other central European reconstructions derived from documentary data or tree rings. Impacts on social life and responses to extreme droughts are summarized; analysis of fluctuations in grain prices with respect to drought receives particular attention. Finally, extreme droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental periods are discussed.
... Meteorological variables other than droughts influence harvests and yields of agricultural crops (grain in particular), which can again be reflected in grain prices. For example, Bauernfeind and Woitek (1999) analysed fluctuations in annual grain prices in the German cities of Nuremberg, Cologne, Augsburg and Munich for 1500-1599. They drew attention to the fact that the duration of the vegetation period was an important factor in determining grain price fluctuations, reporting in 15 particular a positive impact of precipitation in DJF and low SON temperatures on grain prices. ...
The Czech Lands are particularly rich in documentary sources that help elucidate droughts in the pre-instrumental period (12th–18th centuries), together with descriptions of human responses to them. Although droughts appear less frequently before AD 1501, the documentary evidence has enabled the creation of series of seasonal and summer half-year drought indices (SPI, SPEI and Z-index) for the Czech Lands for the 1501–2017 period. Based on calculation of return period for series of drought indices, extreme droughts were selected for inclusion herein if all three indices indicated a return period of ≥20 years. For further analysis, only those from the pre-instrumental period (before AD 1804) were used. The extreme droughts selected are characterised by significantly lower values of drought indices, higher temperatures and lower precipitation totals compared to other years. The sea-level pressure patterns typically associated with extreme droughts include significantly higher pressure over Europe and significantly lower pressure over parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Extreme droughts with a return period ≥50 years are described in detail on the basis of Czech documentary evidence. A number of selected extreme droughts are reflected in other central European reconstructions derived from documentary data or tree-rings. Impacts on social life and responses to extreme droughts are summarised; analysis of fluctuations in grain prices with respect to drought receives particular attention. Finally, extreme droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental periods are discussed.
... Some of these factors, e.g., harvests, quality and pricing, are influenced by climate to some degree. This hypotheses is supported by the results given by Bauernfeind and Woitek (1999), who analyzed the relation between weather conditions and harvests in the southern and western parts of Germany during the 16th century -but for the 19th century and in connection with migration it has hardly been examined. Firstly, relevant numerical data on migration development and the assumed influencing factors were collected and compiled. ...
This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the extent to which climate and climatic change can have a negative impact on societies by triggering migration, or even contribute to conflict. It summarizes results from the transdisciplinary project “Climate of migration” (funded 2010–2014), whose innovative title was created by Franz Mauelshagen and Uwe Lübken. The overall goal of this project was to analyze the relation between climatic and socioeconomic parameters and major migration waves from southwest Germany to North America during the 19th century. The article assesses the extent to which climatic conditions triggered these migration waves. The century investigated was in general characterized by the Little Ice Age with three distinct cooling periods, causing major glacier advances in the alpine regions and numerous climatic extremes such as major floods, droughts and severe winter. Societal changes were tremendous, marked by the warfare during the Napoleonic era (until 1815), the abolition of serfdom (1817), the bourgeois revolution (1847/48), economic freedom (1862), the beginning of industrialization accompanied by large-scale rural–urban migration resulting in urban poverty, and finally by the foundation of the German Empire in 1871.
The presented study is based on quantitative data and a qualitative, information-based discourse analysis. It considers climatic conditions as well as socioeconomic and political issues, leading to the hypothesis of a chain of effects ranging from unfavorable climatic conditions to a decrease in crop yields to rising cereal prices and finally to emigration. These circumstances were investigated extensively for the peak emigration years identified with each migration wave. Furthermore, the long-term relations between emigration and the prevailing climatic conditions, crop yields and cereal prices were statistically evaluated with a sequence of linear models which were significant with explanatory power between 22 and 38 %.
... below for a discussion of these two datasets), but the fit with our aggregate rye price series was poor. Bauernfeind and Woitek (1999) also demonstrate at best a modest fit between quarterly temperature and precipitation means and grain prices in several German towns during the sixteenth century. ...
Long series of vital events for European countries (England, Germany) suggest a decline of volatility from the seventeenth to the 18th century. From the perspective of endogenous growth theory this fact is significant because it improved the risk-return profile of household creation and human capital accumulation. Drawing on a new data set of grain prices from about two dozens of German towns from the sixteenth to the nineteenth centuries we show that the volatility decline of life events is paralleled by a similar downward movement of the price volatility of basic foodstuffs. Thus, increasing food security explains the volatility decline of vital events at least in part. We explore two potential explanations of the decline of grain price volatility, namely, climatic change and market integration. A very preliminary model of the relationship between climatic variables and a synthetic rye price series suggests that the increase in temperature level and the decrease of temperature volatility that occurred between the second half of the seventeenth and early eighteenth century can only explain a small part in the volatility decline of food prices. Interurban grain price dispersion declined between c. 1650 and 1750 as well as during the first quarter of the nineteenth century, suggesting a process of market integration. A comovement analysis of grain prices using a dynamic factor model, however, demonstrates a decrease of the common component during the period 1650-1750 and an increase during the first half of the nineteenth century. We argue that the trajectory of our measures of market integration are strongly influenced by the decline of the frequency and severity of symmetric climatic shocks. Thus, it remains highly doubtful, whether there occurred a significant change in the level of market integration before c. 1750. Only during the early nineteenth century did full market integration emerge.
... Pfister and Brázdil 1999;Behringer 2005), had at best a secondary impact on material welfare (cf. Bauernfeind and Woitek 1999). Otherwise, a clear downward shift of the labour productivity schedule should have occurred during the final third of the sixteenth century, which was obviously not the case. ...
The paper develops a consumer price index and two real wages series for Germany c. 1500–1850. Consumer price indices (CPI) based on eleven goods can be developed for ten towns; one of the two real wage series includes another six towns. Since German bullion markets were little integrated far into the early modern period it is difficult to establish a reliable national CPI. Preference should therefore be given to wage series that can be deflated by local CPIs. The analysis of the aggregate real wage series produces the following insights: First, there was a strong negative feedback between population and the real wage until the middle of the seventeenth century. While the Thirty Years War benefited the material welfare of the survivors through a huge decline in population size, the real wage was probably lower than extrapolated on the basis of the labour productivity schedule, suggesting a net loss in welfare. Second, the relationship between the real wage and population size was much weaker in the eighteenth than in the sixteenth century, which points to a continuous growth of labour productivity. Third, already between the 1810s and 1820s the Malthusian relationship between the real wage and population size prevailing in the eighteenth century was broken. The reasons for this structural rupture remain obscure and require further study.
... under torture confessed to be involved in devilish plans to destroy vineyards and grain for several years in order to create hunger and disease to such an extent that people would be forced to become cannibals. Results obtained by Bauernfeind and Woitek (1999) and by Landsteiner (1999) clearly show that the notion of an extremely long sequence of small wine and grain harvests was not a product of popular imagination. Rather, accusations drew on a combination of outstanding cold shocks which were beyond known experience in the peasant villages which su!ered large collective damage. ...
At this critical moment of Earth’s history, as we move from a century with rapidly growing human impacts on all the different ecosystems of our planet, to a century with a probable further acceleration in the pace of environmental change, resource use, and vulnerability for societies and economies, we have to rethink the changing relationship between nature and human beings from the past, through the present, towards a future full of uncertainty. It becomes more and more evident that major natural processes from the local to the global level are influenced by human activities, creating a much higher degree of complexity through the interaction of processes which are within the domain of both the natural and social sciences. This implies a need to bridge the gulf between the two cultures of science in order to advance our understanding of contemporary driving forces and their rapidly growing impact on earth’s ecosystems. “The biggest changes happened in our century, more precisely in the last 50 years, with a rate unknown before in Earth’s history” (Pfister 1995a). In light of continued population growth, economic development, urbanisation, industrialisation and resource use, it is clear that human impacts on ecosystems world-wide will continue to increase in the next century.
... Exceptions from this rule are very few (e.g. Bauernfeind, 1993;Bauernfeind and Woitek, 1999;Landsteiner, 2005). Wilhelm Abel (1972) thought that climatic impacts on the economy should be understood as a series of random shocks. ...
... Exceptions from this rule are very few (e.g. Bauernfeind, 1993;Bauernfeind and Woitek, 1999;Landsteiner, 2005). Wilhelm Abel (1972) thought that climatic impacts on the economy should be understood as a series of random shocks. ...
The paper is oriented on social vulnerability to climate in Switzerland and in the Czech Lands during the early 1770s. Documentary sources of climate related to man-made archives are discussed. Methods of temperature and precipitation reconstruction based on this evidence as well as climate impact analyses are presented. Modelling of Little Ice Age-type Impacts (LIATIMP) is applied to highlight climate impacts during the period 1750?1800 in the Swiss Plateau and in the Czech Lands. LIATIMP are defined as adverse climate situations affecting grain production, mainly in terms of rainy autumns, cold springs and rainy harvest-periods. The most adverse weather patterns according to this model occurred from 1769 to 1771 causing two, in the case of the Czech Lands even three successive harvest failures. The paper addresses the social and economic consequences of this accumulation of climatic stress and explores how the authorities and the victims dealt with this situation.
Public granaries served as key infrastructures to improve food security in agrarian societies. Their history dates to the oldest complex societies, but they experienced a boom period during the 18th and early 19th centuries in Europe. In Bohemia and Moravia (modern-day Czech Republic), numerous granaries were established by decree in 1788 to provide serfs with grain for sowing in the face of fluctuating weather. Here, we analyze granary data from 15 out of a total of 17 considered domains in the Sušice region (southwest Bohemia) from 1789 to 1849 CE. We use the documented annual values of grain borrowed by serfs, their grain depositions, total grain storage, and the total debt of serfs at the end of the year as proxies for harvest quality and size. Based on the series of these four variables, we calculate weighted grain indices, considering the balance between borrowed and returned grain: a weighted bad harvest index (WBHI), a weighted good harvest index (WGHI), a weighted stored grain index (WSGI: WSGI-, more borrowed than returned; WSGI+, more returned than borrowed), and a weighted serf debt index (WSDI: WSDI+, more borrowed than returned grain; WSDI-, more returned than borrowed grain). WBHI, WSGI-, and WSDI+ were used to select years of extreme bad harvests, and WGHI, WSGI+, and WSDI- to identify years of extreme good harvests. We tested selected extreme harvest years against documentary weather data and reconstructed temperature, precipitation, and drought series from the Czech Lands. We discuss the uncertainty of the data and the broader context of the results obtained. The findings document the potential of this new methodology, using widely available public granary data as proxies for historical climatological research.
Grain price volatility during historical periods is regarded as an important indicator of the impact of climate change on economic system, as well as a key link to adjust food security and social stability. The present study used the wheat prices in Baoding Prefecture, China, during 1736–1850 to explore connections between climatic transition and grain price anomalies in the North China Plain. The main findings were as follows: (1) The grain price change showed an apparent correspondence with climatic transition. The period 1781–1820 was a transition phase, with more extremes and decreased precipitations when the climate shifted from a warm phase to a cold one. Corresponding with the climatic transition, the grain price during 1781–1820 was characterized by that the mean of the original grain price series was significantly higher (lower) than the previous (later) phase, and the variance and anomaly amplitude of the detrended grain price series was the highest during 1736–1850. (2) The correspondence between grain price extremes and drought events occurred in phases. Five grain price extremes occurred following drought events during 1781–1810, while extreme droughts were the direct cause of the grain price spike during 1811–1820. (3) Social stability affected by climate change also played an important role in the grain price spike between 1811 and 1820. Paralleling the pathway of “precipitation-grain production-grain price”, climate change could have an impact on grain price via the pathway of “precipitation-grain production-grain price-famine-uprising-grain price”, as shown during the Tianli Uprising in 1813. These findings could contribute to an improved understanding of the interaction between climate change and human society during the historical period.
Scholars in many disciplines have used diverse methods and sources to establish that, between the 15th and 18th centuries, a “Little Ice Age” considerably cooled Earth's climate. In four particularly chilly periods—the Spörer Minimum, Grindelwald Fluctuation, Maunder Minimum, and Dalton Minimum—falling temperatures both caused and reflected changes in atmospheric circulation that altered regional patterns of precipitation. Many scholars have argued that weather in these cold periods provoked or worsened regional food shortages, famines, rebellions, wars, and outbreaks of epidemic disease, in ways that may have contributed to mass mortality across the early modern world. More recently, some scholars have contrasted the fates of societies or communities that were “vulnerable” to climate change with those that were “resilient” or even consciously or unconsciously adaptive in the face of the Little Ice Age. Overall, research that connects climatic and social histories has suggested that human decisions, political structures, economic arrangements, institutions, and cultures either magnified or mitigated the impact of climate change on the societies of the early modern world.
This article is categorized under:
• Climate, History, Society, Culture > Major Historical Eras
Grain price (GP) volatility has been a central constituent of European commerce, with fluctuations in barley, rye and wheat prices having been carefully documented over centuries. How- ever, a thorough understanding of the climatic and environmental drivers of long-term GP variations is still lacking. Here, we present a network of historical GP records from 19 cities in central and south- ern Europe for the 14th to 18th centuries. Spatial variability at interannual to multidecadal scales within this network was compared with reconstructed warm-season temperatures and hydroclimatic conditions. We show that European GPs are tightly coupled with historical famines and that food shortages coincide with regional summer drought anomalies. Direct correlations between historical GP and reconstructed drought indices are low, hardly exceeding r = −0.2. Yet if the analysis is focused on extreme events, the climatic controls on high-frequency price variations become obvious: GPs were exceptionally high during dry periods and exceptionally low during wet periods. In addition, we find that GP variations were affected by temperature fluctuations at multidecadal timescales. The influence of summer temperatures is particularly strong over the 1650−1750 period, subsequent to the Thirty Years’ War, reaching r = −0.40 at the European scale. This observation is supported by the lack of correlation among regional GP clusters during the period of hostilities and increased inter-regional correlation thereafter. These results demonstrate that the exchange of goods and spatial coherence of GP data in Europe were controlled both by socio-political and environmental factors, with environmental factors being more influential during peacetime.
Extreme weather phenomena and climate change have decisively influenced the culture and everyday life of pre-modern societies. To date, this circumstance has received little attention in the cultural sciences. There is an enormous potential for the analysis of the cultural interpretation of extreme weather phenomena available to cultural anthropologists/ethnologists who consider both the past and the present in their work. However, interdisciplinary climate impact research is necessary in order to take advantage of these possibilities. From a historical perspective this paper points out the convergence of very different strategies for coping with extreme weather phenomena, strategies that range from a primary individual economic approach to the evolution of superstitious practices as collective behavioral strategies.
Basic groups of historical-climatological data sets divided into man-made and natural sources are characterised. The general method of the historical-climatological analysis is described. Main results obtained of historical climatology during the last millennium in central Europe (climate fluctuations, circulation patterns and forcing, climatic anomalies and weather extremes, climate impacts and perceptions) are mentioned and the present state and prospects of future research are defined.
Some of the most diverse and invaluable sources of proxy data are historical records. These data are particularly important since they deal with short-term (high-frequency) climatic fluctuations during the most recent past. In terms of the climatic future, it is this timescale and frequency domain that is often of most interest to planners and decision makers. A great deal can be learned about the probability of extreme events by reference to historical records, and this provides a more realistic perspective on the likelihood of similar events recurring in the future.
Tiere und Menschen – dies ist ein oft angenehmes, aber auch spannungsgeladenes Verhältnis (Becker 1991; Baranzke 2000). Ein Blick in die Geschichte des kulturellen Umgangs mit Tieren, besonders auf die Rolle von Tieren im menschlichen Nahrungssystem, zeichnet dabei ein wandlungsreiches Bild (Dinzelbacher 2000; Dittmer 2000). Es macht deutlich, wie Wertigkeiten und Normen jeweils zeitlich spezifiziert betrachtet werden müssen, wie stark das heutige Mensch-Tier-Verhältnis auf kulturell tradierten Vorstellungen basiert und letztendlich, wie dieses moderne Verständnis dadurch relativiert wird. Vor allem in der frühen Menschheitsgeschichte stellte sich die Angelegenheit für die Hominiden schwierig dar, wurden sie doch von Raubtieren gejagt und im schlimmsten Fall gefressen. Mit fortschreitender Evolution kehrten sich die Verhältnisse um. Wenn, wie im April 2009 in Australien geschehen, ein Tier einen Menschen frisst – in diesem Fall handelte es sich um ein Krokodil, das einen jungen Mann am Vorabend seines 21.
The influence of 14 monosubstituted 4-arylsemicarbazides on the heterotrophic growth of Chlorella vulgaris suspensions was studied. In all cases of inhibition we obtained a typical dependency between activities and concentrations of the semicarbazides.
Isoactive concentrations inhibiting algae suspension growth by 50% vary from 2 × 10-3 M to 1 · 10-4 M within the group of substances studied. Displays of the pc501) values as a function of various series of hydrophobic substituent constants showed linear relations with high correlation coefficients, in contrast to electronic substituent parameters. Ortho-substituted derivatives were less active. With the exception of 4-(2-hydroxyphenyl)-semicarbazide we suggest a simple quantitative structure - activity relation for the growth inhibition of heterotrophic Chlorella vulgaris suspension, which corresponds with earlier results obtained with autotrophic Chlorella vulgaris suspensions.
Variations in the agricultural production of cereals and grapes observed in sixteenth century Ottoman tax registers of Northern Bosnia could be ascribed to changes provoked, among other causes, by climatic variability during the early phase of the 'Little Ice Age' (ca 1550-1650). Comparative analysis with other well-studied European regions is conducted within the general frame of the socio-cultural context of climate and other impacts on a pre-industrial society. Secondly, a significant cultural change is evaluated: the beginning of raki (brandy or Brandtwein) production and consumption in the Central Balkans. This change is first recorded in Bosnia and Serbia in the late sixteenth century, at the same time as wine-growing began to diminish, and by the nineteenth century raki had replaced the popular consumption of wine. The results of the historical analysis show which adaptive strategies farmers in Ottoman Bosnia applied as they faced the challenges of climate deterioration and harvest failures, as well as those of war, famine and epidemics. The survival strategies included crop pattern changes, abandonment of viticulture, intensification of pig rearing and itinerant trade and population migrations, which all correspond well to the situation observed in other European states and the Ottoman Empire. The study aims to increase the historical knowledge of a marginalised region whose environmental history has not yet been brought under closer investigation.
Thirty-two weather diaries written in astronomical calendars in central Europe in the late fifteenth and sixteenth centuries are presented and discussed. Systematic weather observations were promoted by the rise of planetary astronomy and its application in astro-meteorology. The practice of keeping weather diaries spread from Cracow (Poland) to Ingolstadt (Germany) and from there to other universities. The data obtained from these sources provided the backbone for setting up series of precipitation indices for Poland, Germany and Switzerland. Monthly statistics of days with precipitation, snowfall and frost were computed by counting the relevant entries in the most important diaries. The results were compared with either those obtained from instrumental measurements in the same place or with those from modern instrumental measurements in a neighbouring place. The final results show that autumn was considerably colder in the early sixteenth century. April was considerably drier and July was wetter during the period 1508-1531 than during 1901-1960. In order to highlight the impact of weather patterns on grain prices in a year of crisis, the timing of wet and dry spells in southern Poland and southern Germany is compared for the year 1529. Winters became 1.7C colder from 1564 to 1576 and the month of July tended to be wetter than in 1901-1960. Details noted in the diaries kept between 1585 and 1600 by the astronomers Brahe (near Copenhagen) and Fabricius (in the Ostfriesland region of northwestern Germany) closely agree. It rained more often in June and July and temperatures dropped. The winter months were more frequently dominated by winds from easterly directions, the frequency of snowfall was higher and a deficit occurred in precipitation. This points to a higher frequency of high pressure in the Fennoscandian area with cold air advection from the east or northeast.
The introductory paper to this special issue of Climatic Change summarizes the results of an array of studies dealing with the reconstruction of climatic trends and anomalies in sixteenth-century Europe and their impact on the natural and the social world. Areas discussed include glacier expansion in the Alps, the frequency of natural hazards (floods in central and southern Europe and storms on the Dutch North Sea coast), the impact of climate deterioration on grain prices and wine production, and finally, witch-hunts.
The documentary data used for the reconstruction of seasonal and annual precipitation and temperatures in central Europe (Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic) include narrative sources, several types of proxy data and 32 weather diaries. Results were compared with long-term composite tree ring series and tested statistically by cross-correlating series of indices based on documentary data from the sixteenth century with those of simulated indices based on instrumental series (1901–1960). It was shown that series of indices can be taken as good substitutes for instrumental measurements.
A corresponding set of weighted seasonal and annual series of temperature and precipitation indices for central Europe was computed from series of temperature and precipitation indices for Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic, the weights being in proportion to the area of each country. The series of central European indices were then used to assess temperature and precipitation anomalies for the 1901–1960 period using transfer functions obtained from instrumental records. The statistical analysis of these series of estimated temperature and precipitation anomalies yielded features which are similar to those obtained from instrumental series.
Results show that winter temperatures remained below the 1901–1960 average except in the 1520s and 1550s. Springs fluctuated from 0.3°C to 0.8°C below this average. Summer climate was divided into three periods of almost equal length. The first was characterized by an alternation of cool and warmer seasons. The second interval was 0.3°C warmer and between 5 and 6% drier than in the 1901–1960 period. It is emphasized that this warm period included several cold extremes in contrast to the recent period of warming. Summers from 1560 were 0.4°C colder and 4% more humid. Autumns were 0.7°C colder in the 1510s and 20% wetter in the 1570s. The deterioration of summer climate in the late sixteenth century initiated a second period of enlarged glaciers in this millennium (the first having been in the fourteenth century) which did not end until the late nineteenth century.
An analysis of forcing factors (solar, volcanic, ENSO, greenhouse) points only to some volcanic forcing. In order to understand circulation patterns in the sixteenth century in terms of synoptic climatology, proxy information was mapped for a number of anomalous months. Attempts to compare circulation patterns in the sixteenth century with twentieth-century analogues revealed that despite broad agreements in pressure patterns, winters with distinct northeasterly patterns were more frequent in the sixteenth century, whereas the declining summer temperatures from the mid-1560s seem to be associated with a decreasing frequency of anticyclonic ridging from the Azores’ center of action towards continental Europe. The number of severe stonns on the Dutch North Sea coast was four times greater in the second half of the century than in the first. A more or less continuous increase in the number of floods over the entire century occurred in Germany and the Czech lands. The Iberian peninsula and the Garonne basin (France) had the greatest number of severe floods in the 1590s.
The analysis of the effects of climate on rye prices in four German towns involved a model that included monthly temperatures and precipitation values known to affect grain production. The correlation with rye prices was found significant for the entire century and reached its highest values between 1565 and 1600. From the 1580s to the turn of the century wine production slumped almost simultaneously in four regions over a distance of 800 kilometers (Lake Zurich to western Hungary). This had far-reaching consequences for the Habsburg treasury and promoted a temporary shift in drinking habits from wine to beer. Peasant communities which were suffering large collective damage from the effects of climatic change pressed authorities for the organization of witch-hunts. Seemingly most witches were burnt as scapegoats of climatic change.
This paper discusses the state of European research in historical climatology. This field of science and an overview of its development are described in detail. Special attention is given to the documentary evidence used for data sources, including its drawbacks and advantages. Further, methods and significant results of historical-climatological research, mainly achieved since 1990, are presented. The main focus concentrates on data, methods, definitions of the “Medieval Warm Period” and the “Little Ice Age”, synoptic interpretation of past climates, climatic anomalies and natural disasters, and the vulnerability of economies and societies to climate as well as images and social representations of past weather and climate. The potential of historical climatology for climate modelling research is discussed briefly. Research perspectives in historical climatology are formulated with reference to data, methods, interdisciplinarity and impacts.
Se analizan las principales anomalías de la precipitación de primavera y verano en el sur de la provincia de Alicante, reconstruidas mediante técnicas endroclimáticas. Su análisis permite destacar una alternancia de periodos secos (1598-1651, 1671-1687 y 1764-1781) y húmedos (1650-1670 y 1688-1739) de desigual duración e intensidad. A partir del siglo XIX las anomalías de uno y otro sentido son más cortas, aunque su intensidad es similar. In this paper we analyze the main anomalies of spring and summer precipitation in the south of the province of Alicante (SE of Spain), reconstructed using dendroclimatological techniques. We have identified an alternation of dry periods (1598-1651, 1671-1687 and 1764-1781) and humid (1650-1670 and 1688-1739) of different duration and intensity. In the 19th century the rainfall anomalies are shorter, although of similar intensity. Parte de este trabajo se llevo a cabo durante el proyecto CLI96-1862 «Precipitaciones y temperaturas de la mitad septentrional de España a partir del siglo XVII» financiado por la Comisión Interministerial de Ciencia y Tecnología CICYT. Actualmente se encuentra enmarcado dentro del Programa de grupos de investigación consolidados (grupo Clima, Cambio Global y Sistemas Naturales) financiado por el Gobierno de Aragón.
RESUMEN En este trabajo se presentan los aspectos fundamentales de la evolución del clima de Haro, observatorio situado en el sector noroccidental de La Rioja, desde el siglo XV, a partir de la información aportada por las reconstrucciones dendrocli-máticas de la temperatura y la precipitación trimestral y anual. En esta evolución, destacan las características climáticas del siglo XVI, momento en el que parece situarse la fase más álgida de la Pequeña Edad del Hielo (PEH) en esta zona, así como otras anomalías importantes en los siglos XVII y en menor medida en el XVIII. Palabras clave: La Rioja, Haro, Paleoclimatología, Dendroclimatología, Pequeña Edad del Hielo This paper presents the main aspects of the climatic evolution since 15 th century in Haro, a weather station located in the nordwest sector of La Rioja (Spain). Such aspects are based on the information of the dendroclimatic reconstructions of seasonal and annual temperatures and rainfall. In this evolution, it is relevant to highlight the climatic features of the 16 th century. Indeed, they correspond to the highest period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in this area, as well as to the greater climatic anomalies of the 17 th and 18 th centuries.
Les économistes et les géographes, de Thomas W. Tooke à W. Stanley Jevons, Eduard Brückner, Ellsworth Huntington, Lord Beveridge et Eli Heckscher, des historiens tels que Jean Georgelin ou Michel Morineau, estiment que les cycles climatiques jouent un rôle important dans la vie économique par leurs répercussions sur les récoltes et leurs influences sur le niveau des prix. La théorie de Labrousse sur la conjoncture préindustrielle considère la récolte (et donc les problèmes climatiques sous-jacents à la production céréalière) comme l'élément déterminant par l'influence qu'elle exerce sur les prix des céréales et le niveau d'emploi rural, ces deux éléments fixant à leur tour les revenus urbains. Ainsi que l'a écrit Fernand Braudel : « rythme, qualité et insuffisance des récoltes régissent la vie matérielle ».
The article in hand presents a comparative analysis of unweighted thermic and hygric index series of different European regions (northern Switzerland, Germany, the Czech Republic, northern Italy, ancient Hungary, Poland and Spain). Besides methodological aspects about the formation of indices, especially the progress as well as the question of similarity development of these series in the 16th century are discussed and shown on the balance sheet. It becomes evident that with respect to the temperature on the level of unweighted indices the European regions of Germany, the Czech Republic and Switzerland are very similar during all seasons. In winter and summer these correlations are especially evident, during the transitional seasons they are smaller. Larger differences exist between the central European core region and the adjacent areas of research. In principle, the hygric differences are larger than the thermic ones.
In the course of the sixteenth century marked cooling phases occurred during all seasons with increasing accentuation. These phases were typical for the climate of the Little Ice Age. In addition to this long-term analysis, some outstanding years of extreme weather like those of 1540, 1573 and 1587 are presented, in the course of which questions of climatic impact are included. Finally, recent instrumental data was used to conduct an analysis that compared the similarities between the respective regions and the similarities between the empirical data and indices. On the one hand, this confirmed the spatial pattern, on the other hand the usability of the indices.
The History of Econometric Ideas covers the period from the late-nineteenth century to the middle of the twentieth century, illustrating how economists first learnt to harness statistical methods to measure and test the ‘laws’ of economics. Though scholarly, Dr Morgan’s book is very accessible and does not require a high level of prior statistical knowledge.
Examination of the responses of vital rates to variations in grain prices in nine pre-industrial European countries confirms the existence of the short-term Malthusian preventive and positive checks. The structure and magnitude of the preventive check are strikingly similar in all countries and all periods. On the other hand, the strength of the positive check varies widely and in remarkable accord with measures of economic development. The size of the positive relative to the preventive check diminishes as economic development increases. Among the countries examined, differences in the response of population growth rates to price fluctuations can be attributed primarily to differences in the strength of the positive check.
"Annual variations in births, marriages, deaths, grain prices, and quarterly temperature series in England, France, Prussia, and Sweden [for the period 1460-1909] are analyzed using a distributed lag model. The results provide support for the existence of the short-term preventive, positive and temperature checks to population growth. Decreases in fertility and nuptiality are generally associated with increases in grain prices. Increases in mortality appear to be associated with high grain prices, cold winters and hot summers. Changes in these responses over time are examined within the context of economic development."
Price series of agricultural products are one of the few types of time series available for the description of economic activity in the preindustrial world. Therefore, they have always attracted the interest of economic historians dealing with this period. In addition to newly constructed time series of rye prices in an important economic region in preindustrial Europe, we present corresponding data on grain output based on tithe statistics. The data are analyzed using new univariate and multivariate spectral techniques. The main finding is that the price series exhibit genuine cyclical movements, which can be explained to a large extent as harvest cycles. The cycles vary over the period under consideration. The existence of similar patterns in grain price data developed by others as well as the correlation of prices in various regions of Germany is demonstrated.
Materielle Grundstrukturen im Spätmittelalter und der Frühen Neuzeit – Preisentwlicklung und Agrarkonjunktur am Nümberger Getreidemarkt von 1339-1670
- W Bauernfeind
Mathus and the Weather Report: Heights, Population Densities, and Climate in Southern Germany During the 18th Century'. Paper presented at the Conference of the Social Science History Association
- J Baten
Die langfristigen Bewegungen der französischen Getreideproduktion vom 14.-18
- H Neveux
Getreideumsatz, Getreide-und Brotpreise in Köln 1368-1797
- D Ebeling
- F Irsigler
Die deutsche Wirtschafl im 16
- F Mathis
Prices in Europe from 1450-1750 The Cambridge Economic History of Europe
- F Braudel
- F Spooner
Generating Economic Cycles
- H L Moore
Agrarkrisen und Agrarkonjunktur
- W Abel