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Abstract

The final decision for the introduction of the Euro as the common currency of eleven member states of the EU from January 1, 1999 on was reached despite the negative or at least sceptical public opinion in Germany. The research question to be answered in this article is whether the CDU/CSU-FDP-coalition was punished for the decision by the German voters. After a description of the development of German public opinion towards the Euro and the priority of this topic over time, we present results of a special survey on the topic aiming at an explanation of the German Euro sceptics and the possible consequences of it for the attitude towards further European integration. Then in section 4, we analyze the perceptions of the positions of the German parties concerning further integration. Thus, we can check the argument that the decision in favor of the Euro would not cause any disadvantages of the Kohl government since the established German parties all favored the same pro-European policy. Empirically, we can show that the German voters perceived the CDU/CSU in the position of the most integrationist party so that it is no surprise that this party had to face disadvantages at the 1998 Bundestag election. But the loss of votes of the larger coalition party CDU/CSU was not big; we estimate the CDU/CSU-loss due to the Euro decision of the Kohl government to be about one half percentage point.

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... Examining the the questions as posed by Schneider/Weitsman for the case of national elections, Pappi/Thurner (2000) and Thurner/Eymann/ Pappi (2000) ask whether the electorate reacted in a noticeable manner to the adoption of EMU when voting in the ballot box. In a discrete choice model of party choice in the German general election 1998, Pappi/Thurner (2000) simulate whether repositioning of the responsible coalition government would have been followed by a significant increase of market shares. ...
... Examining the the questions as posed by Schneider/Weitsman for the case of national elections, Pappi/Thurner (2000) and Thurner/Eymann/ Pappi (2000) ask whether the electorate reacted in a noticeable manner to the adoption of EMU when voting in the ballot box. In a discrete choice model of party choice in the German general election 1998, Pappi/Thurner (2000) simulate whether repositioning of the responsible coalition government would have been followed by a significant increase of market shares. ...
... Examining the the questions as posed by Schneider/Weitsman for the case of national elections, Pappi/Thurner (2000) and Thurner/Eymann/ Pappi (2000) ask whether the electorate reacted in a noticeable manner to the adoption of EMU when voting in the ballot box. In a discrete choice model of party choice in the German general election 1998, Pappi/Thurner (2000) simulate whether repositioning of the responsible coalition government would have been followed by a significant increase of market shares. Within the framework of a punishment model, Thurner/Eymann/ Pappi (2000) investigate whether the stated refusal of EMU led to a significant choice of 'exit'. ...
... In Deutschland konnten daher Geschwindigkeit und Ausgestaltung der europäischen Integration schwerlich als Gegenstände intensiver, kontroverser, möglicherweise die Bürger zur Auseinandersetzung anregender und integrierender öffentlicher Diskussionen gelten. Da Wahlberechtigte in Wahlen aus dem von Parteien unterbreiteten Politik-und Personalangebot auswählen können (Key 1966: 2), erstaunt es kaum, dass europapolitische Fragen für das Wahlverhalten bei Bundestagswahlen keine wesentliche Rolle spielten (z.B. Pappi und Thurner 2000;Dolezal 2008). Insofern eignete sich der vielzitierte permissive Konsens (Lindberg und Scheingold 1971) besser als in anderen Ländern (z.B. ...
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Ein Plebiszit gegen Kanzler Kohl?
  • Oscar W Gabriel
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Fifty years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences, Chicago. Pappi, Franz Urban, 1996: Political behavior: Reasoning Voters and Multi-party Systems A New Handbook of Political Science
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  • I Benjamin
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Page, Benjamin I./Shapiro, Robert Y.,1991: The Rational Public. Fifty years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences, Chicago. Pappi, Franz Urban, 1996: Political behavior: Reasoning Voters and Multi-party Systems, in: Robert Goodin/Hans-Dieter Klingemann (Hrsg.), A New Handbook of Political Science, Oxford, 255– 275.
Nationale Parteien als Vermittlungsinstanz europäischer Politik? Das Beispiel der Debatte um die Einführung des Euro
  • Westle
  • Bettina
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Westle, Bettina/Staeck, Nicola, 1998: Nationale Parteien als Vermittlungsinstanz europäischer Politik? Das Beispiel der Debatte um die Einführung des Euro, in: Thomas König/Elmar Rieger/Hermann Schmitt (Hrsg.), Europa der Bürger?, Frankfurt a.M./New York. Die deutschen Wähler und der Euro: Auswirkungen auf die Bundestagswahl 1998?
Wer zu spät geht, den bestraft der Wähler. Eine Analyse der Bun-destagswahl
  • Jung
  • Roth
  • Dieter
Jung, Matthias/Roth, Dieter, 1998: Wer zu spät geht, den bestraft der Wähler. Eine Analyse der Bun-destagswahl 1998, in: Aus Politik Und Zeitgeschichte B 52, 3–19.
Wählen als rationale Entscheidung. Die Modellierung von Politikreaktio-nen im Mehrparteiensystem Policy-specific Alienation and Indifference in the Calcu-lus of Voting: A Simultaneous Model of Party Choice and Abstention
  • Roth
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Roth, Dieter, 1998: Empirische Wahlforschung, Opladen. Thurner, Paul W., 1998: Wählen als rationale Entscheidung. Die Modellierung von Politikreaktio-nen im Mehrparteiensystem, München. Thurner, Paul W./Eymann, Angelika, 2000: Policy-specific Alienation and Indifference in the Calcu-lus of Voting: A Simultaneous Model of Party Choice and Abstention, in: Public Choice 102, 51–77.
Ideologie und Wählerverhalten am Bei-spiel der Bundestagswahl
  • Franz Urban Pappi
Pappi, Franz Urban/Melvin Hinich/Susumu Shikano, 2000: Ideologie und Wählerverhalten am Bei-spiel der Bundestagswahl 1998, in: Edward Keynes (Hrsg.), Willensbildungsprozesse und Demo-kratie, Frankfurt a.M., 27–59.
Die öffentliche Meinung zur Europäischen Währungs-union bis 1998: Befund, geldpolitische Zusammenhänge und politische Führung in Deutsch-land, in: Zeitschrift für Politik 46
  • Eckstein
  • Gabriele
  • Franz Urban Pappi
Eckstein, Gabriele/Pappi, Franz Urban, 1999: Die öffentliche Meinung zur Europäischen Währungs-union bis 1998: Befund, geldpolitische Zusammenhänge und politische Führung in Deutsch-land, in: Zeitschrift für Politik 46, 298–334.
Political behavior: Reasoning Voters and Multi-party Systems
  • Franz Pappi
  • Urban
Ein Ende des ‚Permissive Consensus’? Zum Wandel europapolitischer Einstellungen in der öffentlichen Meinung der EG-Mitgliedstaaten
  • Karlheinz Reif
Supranational Governance: The Institutionalization of the European Union
  • Richard Eichenberg
Die Bundestagswahl 1998: Ein Plebiszit gegen Kanzler Kohl?
  • Oscar W Gabriel
  • Frank Brettschneider
  • O. W. Gabriel