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Communication innovations, urban form and travel demand: Some hypotheses and a bibliography

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Abstract

Hypotheses are developed about the effects of telecommunication advances on urban growth patterns and urban travel demands. It is suggested that CBD (central business district) office employment might decentralize if telecommunications could effectively substitute for short inter-office business trips and that job decentralization would alter journey-to-work patterns and the viability of certain public transit systems. Major research questions are raised and keyed to an extensive bibliography.

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... Others have proposed the term 'intercommunications' (Falk and Abler, 1980). What is meant by each of these terms is the 'communication revolution' (Harkness, 1973), the 'cybernetic age' (Lehman-Wilzig, 1981) or the 'information revolution' (Ostry, 1980) (a term which may have a different connotation to be discussed later), that consists of develop ments with respect to three major devices, namely the telephone, the television and the computer which, in addition, facilitate the integration of the three devices or any combination of two of them into powerful communication systems. The major developments within the telephone industry are digital dialing, facsimile (telecopying) service, fibre optics wires and satellite transmission (Mayo, 1982). ...
... Writers on communications and others have preferred implicitly or explicitly a different approach, namely that transportation-communications 'facilitate' urban spatial growth, the factors for which are other, so that trans portation and communications are considered as 'spatial growth netural ' (e.g. Gottman, 1977;Webber, 1982;Harkness, 1973;Pool, 1977). In other words, if there exist any growth factors such as economic growth, transportation and communication may permit and encourage spatial growth. ...
... Second, as Meier predicted as early as 1962 (!) telecommunications is be coming 'the dominant activity of the world'. Third, since most of its infrastructure is unseen and it has few environmental side-effects it is much easier to develop telecommunications networks than transportation networks (Harkness, 1973), which is in addition to the constantly falling prices of telecommunications due to the continuous wave of innovations. Fourth, telecommunications will probably undergo further processes of specialization and division of labour as has happened in other industry sectors (Harkness, 1973). ...
Article
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'Maximizers' believe that any or most new technologies will eventually be applied in daily life. 'Minimizers' believe that not everything that is possible technologically will eventually be used. This review takes a middle course, considering technologies that are already in experimental or mass use. Presents telecommunications as a powerful device that may assist society to achieve goals that are determined independently of telecommunications. -A.F.Pitty
... If such a view were really to take hold, it would undermine much current "comprehensive" urban planning, which assumes current patterns of land use, work-home travel, and existing transport and communication facilities. As Harkness notes, costs and benefits (even in economic terms alone) may lead to a use of telecommunications as a tool for reshaping urban form-office locations, urban travel demands, transportation investments, and a host-of related variables [21]. ...
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To keep our high-technology, fast-changing, urbanized society going, new ways are needed to share information, solve problems, anticipate the future decide, and manage. "Business as usual " in these respects seems likely to become even less acceptable than at present in an era of scarce human and physical resources and inflationary cost
... New forms of production and goods, combined with changing tastes and income, have expanded scale effects and added new ones. Advances in telecommunication should perhaps be seen more as a facilitator of this trend than a strict driver; the main forces for this pattern of land-use being more in terms of widespread automobile ownership and changes in the types of goods produced and the production management adopted (Harkness, 1974). Improved telecommunications has allowed it to evolve more efficiently. ...
... In this context of technological advances, it was not surprising that some dared to state that at a certain point "the office might cease to exist except as a switchboard and electronic databank tucked away in any convenient location" (Harkness, 1973). It was a vision that was powerful, seemingly logical and attractive. ...
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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to describe the origins of today's new office concepts, focusing on the emergence of mobile and flexible working practices in the 1960s and 1970s. Thereby it intends to add a sense of historical awareness to the ongoing debate about the work environment. Design/methodology/approach - The historical description is based on literature study, looking at research reports, design handbooks and depictions of office life in popular culture such as movies and advertisements. Findings - The paper demonstrates that today's "new ways of working" are by no means new. It shows that the concepts of mobile offices, paperless offices, videoconferencing and flexible workplaces all originate from the end of the 1960s and the early 1970s. It also shows that these concepts were far from mainstream, standing in stark contrast to the rigidity and conservatism of everyday office life at the time. Research limitations/implications - This paper is the first result of a larger historical analysis of the recent history of the work environment. Further historical research will add to the presented insight in the evolution of office concepts. Practical implications - The paper's insight into the historical development of office concepts can help workplace strategists to make better, more careful forecasts of future workplace trends. Originality/value - Whereas most literature on the office concept tends to look at novel ideas and future developments, this paper looks back at the recent past. It discusses early workplace experiments that have been largely ignored, or remained unidentified, in much of the discourse on new ways of working.
... Apparently, the capability to conduct business from remote locations has been a practical option for some time but until recently firms had little incentive to leave downtown. In a sense then, the communications revolution that makes decentralization feasible occurred many years ago with the invention of the telephone" (Harkness 1973). This permissive nature of telecommunications makes it difficult to properly model its role in location changes. ...
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This paper provides an overview of the status of telecommuting in the United States, especially as it relates to changes in travel behavior. Regarding the state of the practice, the paper discusses some refinements to the definition of telecommuting that have developed through increased operational experience. It reports several policy statements involving telecommuting, and explores the appeal of telecommuting as a public policy instrument. It highlights some trends in the implementation of home-based and work center-based telecommuting, and suggests that visible public-sector involvement has been crucial to the increased activity in this area. In sketching the state of the art, the paper outlines some frequently-stated hypotheses on telecommuting and travel behavior, and summarizes current empirical findings relating to those hypotheses. Finally, it suggests a variety of topics suitable for further research. These include studying factors influencing the ultimate adoption levels of telecommuting; impacts on energy/air quality, mode choice, and location/urban form; interactions with other transportation demand management strategies; relationships to the traditional urban travel demand forecasting process; cost/benefit tradeoffs; and telecommuting centers.
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The authors would like to thank Paul Davidson for his comments and helpful discussions. They would also like to thank Peter Loeb for statistical assistance and William Harrington and the Western Union Telegraph Company for providing the data. The analysis and inferences are entirely the authors' and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Telegraph Company.
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A CATV system can be converted into an integrated CATV/Pay TV/Audience Rating/Audience Response system by providing for two-way transmission on the cable network and connecting, at each home TV set, a program selector unit that is arranged to generate signals indicative of the program selected and also subscriber response signals for TV shopping, opinion surveys, TV auctions, etc. These identification and response signals are sent back down the cable network to a central office interrogation system which is computer-controlled. A proposed design that meets specified system requirements for these new services would cost approximately $50 per subscriber more than a CATV system alone.
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The technique of exchanging resolution according to the amount of movement in a picture has been previously described; in stationary parts of the picture the temporal resolution is reduced while in moving parts of the picture the spatial resolution is reduced. Here, we describe a method of applying resolution exchange to a differentially quantized (DPCM) signal. The resulting channel capacity required for the subjectively satisfactory transmission of the differential signal is halved. The coder is simpler than most interframe coders and should not increase the sensitivity of the system to channel errors.
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Communication is replacing travel or transportation in an increasing number of ways. It is argued that this substitution should be studied in detail, taking account of the economic, political, and psychological, as well as technical factors involved. The basic problem is formulated in terms of the ways in which the substitution can be made and the kinds of environment in which it might be made. A decision matrix and a decision rule, which can be used to determine whether the decision to make a communications-transportation substitution should be made, are formulated. Ways in which the elements of the decision matrix will be determined are discussed.
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Two sets of data are fundamentally required to describe a television picture, one giving the significant changes of brightness, and the other the positions of such changes. The total information content is calculated according to Shannon, and the means are discussed for reducing bandwidth by redistributing the data in time so as to achieve a constant rate of transmission. Maximum compression is achieved by treating the two sets of data as independent quantities, and using two channels for their transmission. A compromise may be adopted, however, in which almost the maximum bandwidth compression is achieved using a single channel at the cost of an increase of signal power. The method is flexible in that it permits of an exchange to be made between the size of picture element and the continuity of grey scale, for a minimum stated bandwidth.
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Two-way communications on a cable television system can be achieved in many different ways. This special report surveys the various approaches that have been proposed and are being tried experimentally in the field. The emphasis is on the basic engineering configurations rather than on the uses to which the systems can be put. For almost all of the systems, the possible two-way uses are limited only by one's imagination. The capability for any communications task exists if one is willing to pay the price.
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"Reprinted from The Rand Corporation paper P-2489." Thesis--University of California. Includes bibliographical references. Microfilm of typescript.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 1971. Includes bibliography.
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Schiller R. K. (1971) Location trends of specialist services, Reg. Studies 5, 1--10. Evidence is produced to show that specialist services in the Outer Metropolitan Area, around London, are less centrally located than would be expected by current theory. High income, car ownership and population dispersal are suggested as causes. It is argued that specialist services will tend to polarize in future between non-central locations serving car-based local consumers, and metropolitan CBDs serving public transport-based commuters, tourists and distant visitors.
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Lichfield N. (1969) Cost benefit analysis in urban expansion. A case study: Peterborough, Reg. Studies 3, 123--155. The City of Peterborough is to be expanded by a New Town Development Corporation to accommodate twice its present population, of 80,000. In 1966 the Minister appointed an inter-disciplinary team of Consultants to prepare a Draft Basic plan as a basis for the area to be designated for the expansion. At an early stage in the design process it emerged that the expansion appeared to allow for at least four conceptually different approaches, termed hypotheses. Cost benefit analysis in the form of the Planning Balance Sheet was then used to evaluate these approaches, and to form the basis for designing a fifth, which became the recommended designated area. The article presents the analysis and shows how the technique of the Planning Balance Sheet can be used as a design tool in the process of plan making and as a method of setting out the rationale behind the Plan recommended by the professional planners. In consequence the Corporation and other Authorities can reconsider the judgements made by the Consultants during the process of building the town.
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Townroe P. M. (1969) Locational choice and the individual firm, Reg. Studies 3, 15--24. A complementary approach to the use of locational theory for the understanding of the mobility of industrial concerns is found in a concentration on the individual enterprise. In a series of four charts, the internal and external pressures on the decision-making process are set out and the interrelationships explored. A clarification of the factors involved sets the process of locational choice in the context of the investment evaluation procedure of the enterprise and in the framework of public policy.
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The paper reports on theoretical and empirical studies of contact systems. It refines and extends the framework, and consequently the implications, of such systems. This framework forms a base for extensive empirical studies, the results of which are used to suggest how contact systems are resolved and how they affect the quantitative and qualitative aspects of regional development. The analysis aims to determine how control of the course of development can be exerted by planning bodies at various levels.
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Cable television (CATV) is unique in that it is the only wire, besides telephone, with potential access to 80 million customers. Many new services have been proposed to utilize this access-from meter reading to transmission of an entire book in seconds. The author postulates that electronic mail is the market CATV should pursue and describes the market potential, a system design in some detail, and an estimate of the costs involved. An intriguing result of this analysis is the possibility of sending mail electronically for only 10 cents a letter.
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The transmitter/receiver system for bandwidth or data-rate compression of television signals, described herein, is a prototype model of the experimental system of Cherry et al. [1]. The system is suitable for both black-and-white or half-tone pictures, in realistic noise conditions. The system parameters my be adjusted so that an optimum run-length encoding may be found; the great advantages of run-length quantizing are shown, especially with regard to practical instrumentation, leading to the use of buffer stores of modest capacity. One particular cheap form of receiver operates on a quantized-variable-velocity principle and, being much more simple and cheap than the transmitter, is suitable for use in situations requiring many receivers.
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This paper was also reprinted in: In Memoriam: J. C. R. Licklider 1915-1990 Research Report 61 Digital Equipment Corporation Systems Research Center August 1990 http://gatekeeper.dec.com/pub/DEC/SRC/research-reports/abstracts/src-rr-061.html The Computer as a Communication Device
Substitutability of Communications for Transportation: A Problem Statement. Department of Geography The Pennsylvania State Uni-versity Teleconferencing: Literature Review, Field Studies, and Working Papers. Research and Engineer-ing Support Div., Institute for Defense Analysis
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Abler, R. (1971). Substitutability of Communications for Transportation: A Problem Statement. Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State Uni-versity, University Park, Pennsylvania (June), mimeo. 191 Bailey, Gerald C., P.G. Nordlie, and F. Sistruch (1966). Teleconferencing: Literature Review, Field Studies, and Working Papers. Research and Engineer-ing Support Div., Institute for Defense Analysis, Arlington, Va. (March), NTIS, AD-480-695.
RCA Electronics Age (Summer)
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Wilson, W. F. (1971). RCA Electronics Age (Summer). pp. 21-23.
Census Bureau. 115 U.S. CensusCentral Administrative Offices and Auxiliaries," 1954 Census of Business, Manufacturers and Mineral Industries Country Business Patterns, First Quarter 1956 Metropolis 1985; an interpretation of the findings of the New York Metropolitan region study
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Commerical Uses of Broadband Communications
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Kahn, Ephraim (1971). "Commerical Uses of Broadband Communications," Report prepared for the Sloan Commission on Cable Communications (June).
Factors and Trends in Trip Lengths
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Voorhees, Alan M., and Associates (1968). "Factors and Trends in Trip Lengths," Report 48. National Cooperative Highway Research Program, Na-tional Research Council, Highway Research Board, Washington, D.C. 70 pp.
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Wood, Robert C. (1959). Metropolis Against Itself. Committee for Economic Development, New York, supplementary paper 2. City Center: A London Example," Regional Studies. 2.
Urban Atlas: 20 American Cities Population and Employment Forecasts and Distribution for the Central Puget Sound Region
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Passonneau, J. R., and R. S. Warman (1966). Urban Atlas: 20 American Cities. MIT Press, Cambridge. 103 Puget Sound Governmental Conference (1969). Population and Employment Forecasts and Distribution for the Central Puget Sound Region, 1975-1990.