Content uploaded by G. William Walster
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by G. William Walster on Apr 22, 2016
Content may be subject to copyright.
Uxps*v H{dpsoh Uhylvlwhg
Hxjhqh Ork
Vxq Plfurv|vwhpv
J1 Zlooldp Zdovwhu
Vxq Plfurv|vwhpv
Mdqxdu| 53/ 5335
Devwudfw
Lq 4<;;/ Uxps ^7` sxeolvkhg dq h{dpsoh lq zklfk qxphulfdo hydoxdwlrq
ri dq h{suhvvlrq jdyh d plvohdglqj uhvxow/ hyhq wkrxjk xvh ri lqfuhdvlqj
dulwkphwlf suhflvlrq vxjjhvwhg uholdeoh frpsxwdwlrq1 Wklv riw0flwhg h{0
dpsoh kdsshqv qrw wr eh uhsurgxfleoh rq pdq| prghuq frpsxwhuv1 Wkh
h{suhvvlrq lv uhzulwwhq vr wkdw Uxps*v uhvxow lv uhsurgxfleoh xvlqj LHHH
:87 dulwkphwlf1
4Lqwurgxfwlrq
Uxps*v h{dpsoh ^7` lv wr frpsxwh wkh h{suhvvlrq
i@ 666=:8e9.d5+44d5e5e9454e75, . 8=8e;.d
5e>+4,
zlwk d@ ::94: dqg e@ 663<91 Rq dq LEP V26:3 pdlq iudph kh frpsxwhg i
lq +4, xvlqj vlqjoh/ grxeoh/ dqg h{whqghg0suhflvlrq dulwkphwlf/ wr surgxfh wkh
uhvxowv=
Vlqjoh suhflvlrq= i@4=4:5936===
Grxeoh suhflvlrq= i@4=4:5936<733864===
H{whqghg suhflvlrq= i@4=4:5936<733864:;===
Wklv vxjjhvwv d uholdeoh uhvxow ri dssur{lpdwho| 414:5936 ru hyhq
414:5936<7338651 Lq idfw/ krzhyhu/ wkh fruuhfw uhvxow +zlwklq rqh xqlw ri wkh
odvw gljlw, lv
i@3=;5:6<938<<79;5469;4744983<87:<;49=== +5,
Hyhq wkh vljq zdv zurqj1
Wklv h{dpsoh lv riwhq flwhg +iru h{dpsoh/ vhh ^6` dqg ^5`, lq wkh lqwhuydo olw0
hudwxuh wr looxvwudwh wkh idfw wkdw lqfuhdvlqj suhflvlrq grhv qrw dozd|v h{srvh
Wf
?5335 Vxq Plfurv|vwhpv/ Lqf1 Doo uljkwv uhvhuyhg1 Vxq/ Vxq Plfurv|vwhpv/ wkh Vxq
Orjr dqg Iruwh duh wudghpdunv ru uhjlvwhuhg wudghpdunv ri Vxq Plfurv|vwhpv/ Lqf1 lq wkh
Xqlwhg Vwdwhv dqg rwkhu frxqwulhv1
4
qxphulfdo lqvwdelolw|/ zkhuhdv lqwhuydo dulwkphwlf pxvw1 Rwkhu vlplodu h{dp0
sohv duh qrw nqrzq wr wkh dxwkruv1 Dv qrwhg lq ^5`4/ wkh vwulnlqj uhvxowv uh0
sruwhg e| Uxps duh qrw gxsolfdwhg rq d ydulhw| ri prghuq frpsxwhuv1 Iru
wkh suhvhqw sdshu/ wkh dxwkruv yhulhg wkdw Uxps*v uhvxow duh qrw gxsolfdwhg
xvlqj LHHH :87 dulwkphwlf dqg dq| urxqglqj prgh lqfoxglqj wkh prvw frpprq/
urxqg0wr0qhduhvw1 Wkh uhvxowv xvlqj vlqjoh/ grxeoh/ dqg txdguxsoh suhflvlrq uhdo
dulwkphwlf lq wkh Iruwh Ghyhorshu 9 Xsgdwh 5 Iruwudq <8 frpslohu iurp Vxq
Plfurv|vwhpv Lqf1 ^4` duh=
650elw= i@9=66;586H .5<
970elw= i@4=4;38<4953:4:7446H .54
45;0elw= i@.4=4:5936<733864:;964;8;;67<378534;6;
+6,
Wkhvh uhvxowv duh hyhq ohvv fruuhfw wkdq Uxps*v ruljlqdo1 Qhyhuwkhohvv/ xvh
ri lqfuhdvlqj suhflvlrq zduqv wkdw wkh frpsxwdwlrq lv xqvwdeoh1 Wklv vxjjhvwv
wkdw shukdsv LHHH dulwkphwlf/ xqolnh wkdw rq LEP*v V26:3/ h{srvhv qxphulfdo
lqvwdelolw|1 Zkloh lq pdq| fdvhv lqfuhdvlqj rdwlqj0srlqw suhflvlrq +zkhwkhu
LHHH :87 ru qrw, fdq h{srvh qxphulfdo lqvwdelolw|/ frxqwhu h{dpsohv h{lvw1 Iru
h{dpsoh/ wkh iroorzlqj uhduudqjhphqw ri Uxps*v h{suhvvlrq surgxfhv klv ruljlqdo
hhfw rq LHHH0:87 frpsxwhuv=
i@ +666=:8 d5,e9.d5+44d5e5454e75, . 8=8e;.d
5e=+7,
Xvlqj 650elw/ 970elw/ dqg 45;0elw urxqg0wr0qhduhvw LHHH0:87 dulwkphwlf/ +7, sur0
gxfhv=
650elw= i@4=4:5937
970elw= i@4=4:5936<733864:;9
45;0elw= i@4=4:5936<733864:;964;8;;67<378534;6;
+8,
Hyhq wklv uhirupxodwhg h{suhvvlrq lv qrw frpsohwho| vwdeoh1 Zlog yduldwlrqv lq
uhvxowv pd| rffxu iru dowhuqdwlyh urxqglqj prghv/ urxqglqj suhflvlrqv/ dulwk0
phwlf irupdwv +vxfk dv <90elw zrugv,/ ru h{srqhqwldo hydoxdwlrq phwkrgv1
5Dqdo|vlv
Wkh ydoxhv ri ddqg elq +4, vdwlvi| wkh htxdwlrq=
d5@8=8e5.4=+9,
Dqdo|vlv xvlqj +9, vkrzv wkdw wkh kljk rughu whupv lq +4, dqg +7, fdqfho wr
surgxfh
i@d
5e
5+:,
@3=;5:6<938<<79;5469;4744983<87:<;49===
4Wkh dxwkruv ohduqhg ri wklv sdshu dv wkh suhvhqw sdshu zdv jrlqj wr suhvv1 Qhlwkhu wkh
frqwhqw qru wkh frqfoxvlrqv wkdw iroorz kdyh fkdqjhg dv d frqvhtxhqfh1
5
Wkh whup d
5elv hylghqw lq Uxps*v ruljlqdo h{suhvvlrq dqg lq +7,1 Wkh whup 5
rqo| hphujhv diwhu fdqfhoolqj whupv lqyroylqj d5dqg e51 Wklv vxjjhvwv d pruh
wudqvsduhqw irup ri wkh h{suhvvlrqv lq +4, dqg +7,=
i@8=8e;58=8e;.d
5e=+;,
Xqghu doo irxu LHHH urxqglqj prghv/ wkh LHHH rdwlqj0srlqw uhvxowv iurp +;,
duh zlwklq 4 xos ri ehlqj wkh vdph dv wkrvh lq +8,1 Krzhyhu/ +;, h{srvhv wkh
fdwdvwursklf fdqfhoodwlrq wkdw lv klgghq lq Uxps*v ruljlqdo h{dpsoh1
Qrwh wkdw wkh qdo uhvxow lq +4,/ +7, dqg +;, lv ri rughu 4/ exw wkh odujhvw whupv
duh ri vl}h 8=8e;@:1<4:4438H.69/ zklfk lv qhduo| htxdo wr 5456=Wkxv/ Uxps*v
vwulnlqj h{dpsoh uhtxluhv rdwlqj0srlqw dulwkphwlf wkdw kdv d g|qdplf udqjh ri
dw ohdvw 5456 wr dyrlg ryhu rz/ exw suhflvlrq wkdw lv ohvv wkdq 456 elwv wr fdxvh
wkh huurqhrxv fdqfhoodwlrq1 Wkhvh frqglwlrqv duh vdwlvhg e| LHHH dulwkphwlf
zlwk 650/ 970/ dqg 45;0elw suhflvlrq/ dv lqglfdwhg lq Wdeoh 41 Qhyhuwkhohvv/
LHHH Zrug Ohqjwk G|qdplf Udqjh Suhflvlrq
65 elwv 545: 56 elwv
97 elwv 54356 85 elwv
45; elwv 5496;6 445 elwv
Wdeoh 4= LHHH :87 Iordwlqj0Srlqw Frpsrqhqw Ydoxhv
dv phqwlrqhg lq wkh glvfxvvlrq iroorzlqj +8,/ wkh deryh frqglwlrqv duh rqo|
qhfhvvdu| dqg qrw vx!flhqw wr surgxfh wkh Uxps uhvxow1
Dv dgyhuwlvhg/ hydoxdwlqj +4,/ +7,/ dqg +;, xvlqj lqwhuydo dulwkphwlf lq wkh
i<8 frpslohu ^8`/ surgxfhv zlgh lqwhuydov wkdw frqwdlq wkh fruuhfw dqvzhu/ dqg
wkhuhe| h{srvh wkh lqvwdelolw|1 Dv h{shfwhg/ lqfuhdvlqj suhflvlrq qduurzv wkh
zlgwk ri wkh uhvxowlqj lqwhuydov1 Vhh Wdeoh 51
H{suhvvlrq
+4, +7, +;, +:,
650elw= 916H.63 717H.63 615H.63 415H03:
970elw= 414H.55 :14H.54 81<H.54 515H049
45;0elw= 814H.36 614H.36 814H.36 41<H067
Wdeoh 5= Lqwhuydo Zlgwkv
Dfnqrzohgjhphqw 4 Wkdqnv wr Uxxg Ydq ghu Sdvv iru fkhfnlqj Uxps*v rulj0
lqdo h{dpsoh xvlqj LHHH dulwkphwlf dqg glvfryhulqj wkdw wkh h{shfwhg uhvxowv duh
qrw surg xfhg 1
Dfnqrzohgjhphqw 5 Wkdqnv wr Doh{hl Djdirqry iru shuiruplqj ydulrxv whvwv
rq glhuhqw suhflvlrq rdwlqj0srlqw qxpehuv1
Dfnqrzohgjhphqw 6 Wkdqnv wr wkh uhihuhhv iru wkhlu khosixo frpphqwv dqg
vxjjhvwlrqv1
6
Uhihuhqfhv
^4` Iruwh
wp
Ghyhorshu 9 Iruwudq <8 Xsgdwh 51 Vxq Plfurv|vwhpv/ Mxo| 53341
^5` D1 Fx|w/ E1 Yhugrqn/ V Ehfxzh/ dqg S1 Nxwhuqd1 D uhpdundeoh h{dpsoh ri
fdwdvwursklf fdqfhoodwlrq xqudyhohg1 Frpsxwlqj/ 99=63<653/ 53341
^6` H1U1Kdqvhq1Joredo Rswlpl}dwlrq Xvlqj Lqwhuydo Dqdo|vlv1 Pdufho Ghnnhu/
Lqf1/ Qhz \run/ 4<<51
^7` V1 P1 Uxps1 Dojrulwkpv iru yhulhg lqfoxvlrqv= Wkhru| dqg sudfwlfh1 Lq
U1 H1 Prruh/ hglwru/ Uholdelolw| lq Frpsxwlqj= Wkh Uroh ri Lqwhuydo Phwkrgv
lq Vflhqwlf Frpsxwlqj/ fkdswhu 41 Frpsxwhu Dulwkphwlf dqg Pdwkhpdwlfdo
Vriwzduh/ sdjhv 43<4591 Dfdghplf Suhvv/ Ervwrq/ PD/ 4<;;1
^8` J1 Z1 Zdovwhu1 Lqwhuydo Dulwkphwlf Surjudpplqj Uhihuhqfh= Iruwhwp Zrun0
Vkrs 9 Xsgdwh 5 Iruwudq <81 Vxq Plfurv|vwhpv/ Mxo| 53341
7