Bray F, Jemal A, Grey N, Ferlay J, Forman DGlobal cancer transitions according to the Human Development Index (2008-2030): a population-based study. Lancet Oncol 13(8): 790-801

Section of Cancer Information, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
The Lancet Oncology (Impact Factor: 24.69). 05/2012; 13(8):790-801. DOI: 10.1016/S1470-2045(12)70211-5
Source: PubMed


Cancer is set to become a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the coming decades in every region of the world. We aimed to assess the changing patterns of cancer according to varying levels of human development.
We used four levels (low, medium, high, and very high) of the Human Development Index (HDI), a composite indicator of life expectancy, education, and gross domestic product per head, to highlight cancer-specific patterns in 2008 (on the basis of GLOBOCAN estimates) and trends 1988-2002 (on the basis of the series in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents), and to produce future burden scenario for 2030 according to projected demographic changes alone and trends-based changes for selected cancer sites.
In the highest HDI regions in 2008, cancers of the female breast, lung, colorectum, and prostate accounted for half the overall cancer burden, whereas in medium HDI regions, cancers of the oesophagus, stomach, and liver were also common, and together these seven cancers comprised 62% of the total cancer burden in medium to very high HDI areas. In low HDI regions, cervical cancer was more common than both breast cancer and liver cancer. Nine different cancers were the most commonly diagnosed in men across 184 countries, with cancers of the prostate, lung, and liver being the most common. Breast and cervical cancers were the most common in women. In medium HDI and high HDI settings, decreases in cervical and stomach cancer incidence seem to be offset by increases in the incidence of cancers of the female breast, prostate, and colorectum. If the cancer-specific and sex-specific trends estimated in this study continue, we predict an increase in the incidence of all-cancer cases from 12·7 million new cases in 2008 to 22·2 million by 2030.
Our findings suggest that rapid societal and economic transition in many countries means that any reductions in infection-related cancers are offset by an increasing number of new cases that are more associated with reproductive, dietary, and hormonal factors. Targeted interventions can lead to a decrease in the projected increases in cancer burden through effective primary prevention strategies, alongside the implementation of vaccination, early detection, and effective treatment programmes.

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    • "For some, half of cancer cases could be avoided by applying existing etiological knowledge. After Bray et al. [6], cancer remains the leading cause of death in many high-income countries and will become a major cause of morbidity and mortality in coming decades, in all regions of the world. Assuming trends in HDI countries with very high average apply at the global level, namely the increase in incidence rates of colorectal cancers, breast, prostate, lower stomach cancer incidence rates and cervix, and lung cancer increase in women and drop it in men (in high HDI regions and very high only), the authors estimate that we will have over 22 million of new cancer cases per year by 2030. "
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    ABSTRACT: This framework is designed to encourage transdisciplinary research that will integrate social determinants in cancer research. This framework is designed to help conceptualize how the social determinants interact with other factors in the etiology of cancer. The factors influencing the populations of cancer in Morocco and other countries of the world can be classified into seven groups: 1) Political and institutional factors, 2) Socio-cultural factors, 3) Socioeconomic factors, 4) Environmental factors, 5) Biological factors, 6) Factors related to lifestyle, and 7) Those related to the health system.
    Full-text · Article · Nov 2015 · Open Journal of Preventive Medicine
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    • "Unfortunately, BC incidence is increasing everywhere and in less developed countries BC is becoming a major health issue [36] [37] [38]. On the other hand, mortality rates for BC are decreasing [36] [39] and it has been estimated that lung cancer instead of BC will become the first cause of death among women and in Europe in 2014, for the first time [39]. A better knowledge of biological features, screening protocols, and access to cutting edge therapies plays a key role in BC treatment. "
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    ABSTRACT: Because of their high incidence and mortality solid cancers are a major health problem worldwide. Although several new biomarkers and potential targets for therapy have been identified through biomolecular research in the last years, the effects on patients’ outcome are still unsatisfactory. Increasing evidence indicates that hERG1 potassium channels are overexpressed in human primary cancers of different origin and several associations between hERG1 expression and clinicopathological features and/or outcome are emerging. Aberrant hERG1 expression may be exploited either for early diagnosis (especially in those cancers where it is expressed in the initial steps of tumor progression) or for therapy purposes. Indeed, hERG1 blockage impairs tumor cell growth both in vitro and in vivo in preclinical mouse model. hERG1-based tumor therapy in humans, however, encounters the major hindrance of the potential cardiotoxicity that many hERG1 blockers exert. In this review we focus on recent advances in translational research in some of the most frequent human solid cancers (breast, endometrium, ovary, pancreas, esophagus, stomach, and colorectum) that have been shown to express hERG1 and that are a major health problem.
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    • "The Human Development Index was geometric mean of achieving success in every province in three main dimensions of human development, including long and healthy life, having access to knowledge and normal life standards. It ranges from zero to one (Bray et al., 2012). "
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    ABSTRACT: Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed form of cancer and the sixth leading cause of cancer-related deaths among men in the entire world. Reported standardized incidence rates are 12.6, 61.7, 11.9 and 27.9 in Iran, developed countries, developing countries and the entire world, respectively. The present study investigated the relative risk of PC in Iran at the province level and also explored the impact of some factors by the use of Bayesian models. Our study population was all men with PC in Iran from 2005 to 2008. Considered risk factors were smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, obesity and human development index. We used empirical and full Bayesian models to study the relative risk in Iran at province level to estimate the risk of PC more accurately. In Iran from 2005 to 2008 the total number of known PC cases was 10,361 with most cases found in Fars and Tehran and the least in Ilam. In all models just human development index was found to be significantly related to PC risk Conclusions: In the unadjusted model, Fars, Semnam, Isfahan and Tehran provinces have the highest and Sistan-and-Baluchestan has the least risk of PC. In general, central provinces have high risk. After adjusting for covariates, Fars and Zanjan provinces have the highest relative risk and Kerman, Northern Khorasan, Kohgiluyeh Boyer Ahmad, Ghazvin and Kermanshah have the lowest relative risk. According to the results, the incidence of PC in provinces with higher human development index is higher.
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