Background
Over the past several decades, the overweight and obesity epidemic in the USA has resulted in a significant
health and economic burden. Understanding current trends and future trajectories at both national and state levels is
crucial for assessing the success of existing interventions and informing future health policy changes. We estimated
the prevalence of overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 with forecasts to 2050 for children and adolescents (aged
5–24 years) and adults (aged ≥25 years) at the national level. Additionally, we derived state-specific estimates and
projections for older adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and adults for all 50 states and Washington, DC.
Methods
In this analysis, self-reported and measured anthropometric data were extracted from 134 unique sources,
which included all major national surveillance survey data. Adjustments were made to correct for self-reporting bias. For
individuals older than 18 years, overweight was defined as having a BMI of 25 kg/m² to less than 30 kg/m² and obesity
was defined as a BMI of 30 kg/m² or higher, and for individuals younger than 18 years definitions were based on
International Obesity Task Force criteria. Historical trends of overweight and obesity prevalence from 1990 to 2021 were
estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. A generalised ensemble modelling approach was
then used to derive projected estimates up to 2050, assuming continuation of past trends and patterns. All estimates
were calculated by age and sex at the national level, with estimates for older adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and adults
aged (≥25 years) also calculated for 50 states and Washington, DC. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were derived from the
2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of the posterior distributions of the respective estimates.
Findings
In 2021, an estimated 15·1 million (95% UI 13·5–16·8) children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years),
21·4 million (20·2–22·6) older adolescents (aged 15–24 years), and 172 million (169–174) adults (aged ≥25 years) had
overweight or obesity in the USA. Texas had the highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight or obesity for male
adolescents (aged 15–24 years), at 52·4% (47·4–57·6), whereas Mississippi had the highest for female adolescents
(aged 15–24 years), at 63·0% (57·0–68·5). Among adults, the prevalence of overweight or obesity was highest in North
Dakota for males, estimated at 80·6% (78·5–82·6), and in Mississippi for females at 79·9% (77·8–81·8). The
prevalence of obesity has outpaced the increase in overweight over time, especially among adolescents. Between
1990 and 2021, the percentage change in the age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased by 158·4% (123·9–197·4)
among male adolescents and 185·9% (139·4–237·1) among female adolescents (15–24 years). For adults, the percentage
change in prevalence of obesity was 123·6% (112·4–136·4) in males and 99·9% (88·8–111·1) in females. Forecast
results suggest that if past trends and patterns continue, an additional 3·33 million children and young adolescents
(aged 5–14 years), 3·41 million older adolescents (aged 15–24 years), and 41·4 million adults (aged ≥25 years) will have
overweight or obesity by 2050. By 2050, the total number of children and adolescents with overweight and obesity will
reach 43·1 million (37·2–47·4) and the total number of adults with overweight and obesity will reach 213 million
(202–221). In 2050, in most states, a projected one in three adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and two in three adults
(≥25 years) will have obesity. Although southern states, such as Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, West
Virginia, and Kentucky, are forecast to continue to have a high prevalence of obesity, the highest percentage changes
from 2021 are projected in states such as Utah for adolescents and Colorado for adults.
Interpretation
Existing policies have failed to address overweight and obesity. Without major reform, the forecasted
trends will be devastating at the individual and population level, and the associated disease burden and economic
costs will continue to escalate. Stronger governance is needed to support and implement a multifaceted whole-system
approach to disrupt the structural drivers of overweight and obesity at both national and local levels. Although clinical
innovations should be leveraged to treat and manage existing obesity equitably, population-level prevention remains
central to any intervention strategies, particularly for children and adolescents.