Conference Paper

A probabilistic model for estimating driver behaviors and vehicle trajectories in traffic environments

Inst. for Anthropomatics, Karlsruhe Inst. of Technol., Karlsruhe, Germany
DOI: 10.1109/ITSC.2010.5625262 Conference: Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC), 2010 13th International IEEE Conference on
Source: IEEE Xplore

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a filter that is able to simultaneously estimate the behaviors of traffic participants and anticipate their future trajectories. This is achieved by recognizing the type of situation derived from the local situational context, which subsumes all information relevant for the drivers decision making. By explicitly taking into account the interactions between vehicles, it achieves a comprehensive situational understanding, inevitable for autonomous vehicles and driver assistance systems. This provides the necessary information for safe behavior decision making or motion planning. The filter is modeled as a Dynamic Bayesian Network. The factored state space, modeling the causal dependencies, allows to describe the models in a compact fashion and reduces the computational complexity of the inference process. The filter is evaluated in the context of a highway scenario, showing a good performance even with very noisy measurements. The presented framework is intended to be used in traffic environments but can be easily transferred to other robotic domains.

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    • "Another way of solving the prediction problem is to predict the future vehicle motions based on the observation of past vehicle movements[5][6]. In addition to simply using the system dynamics, approaches considering driver's intention[7], behavior difference under different traffic situation [8][11] are also proposed to improve prediction accuracy. Sorstedt, et al[4] proposed a long term motion prediction approach with respect to driver intentions by including the expected driver input in their vehicle motion model. "
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    ABSTRACT: Accurate trajectory prediction of a lane changing vehicle is a key issue for risk assessment and early danger warning in advanced driver assistance systems(ADAS). This paper proposes a trajectory prediction approach for a lane changing vehicle considering high-level driver status. A driving behavior estimation and classification model is developed based on Hidden Markov Models(HMMs). The lane change behavior is estimated by observing the vehicle state emissions in the beginning stage of a lane change procedure, and then classified by the classifier before the vehicle crosses the lane mark. Furthermore, the future trajectory of the lane changing vehicle is predicted in a statistical way combining the driver status estimated by the classifier. The classifier is trained and tested using naturalistic driving data, which shows satisfactory performance in classifying driver status. The trajectory prediction method generates different trajectories based on the classification results, which is important for the design of both autonomous driving controller and early danger warning systems.
    No preview · Conference Paper · Nov 2014
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    • "They test their approach in a simulated highway scenario. A fully probabilistic approach is presented in [4]. It uses contextual information to detect the type of situation a vehicle is in. "
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    ABSTRACT: Abstract — Estimating and predicting traffic situations over time is an essential capability for sophisticated driver assistance systems or autonomous driving. When longer prediction hori- zons are needed, e.g., in decision making or motion planning, the uncertainty induced by incomplete environment perception and stochastic situation development over time cannot be neglected without sacrificing robustness and safety. Especially describing the unknown behavior of other traffic participants poses a complex problem. Building consistent probabilistic models of their manifold and changing interactions with the environment, the road network and other traffic participants by hand is error- prone. Further, the results could hardly cover the complete diversity of human behaviors. This paper presents an approach for learning continuous, non-linear, context dependent process models for the behavior of traffic participants from unlabeled observations. The resulting models are naturally embedded into a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) that enables the prediction and estimation of traffic situations based on noisy and incomplete measurements. Using a hybrid state repre- sentation it combines discrete and continuous quantities in a mathematically sound way. Experiments show a significant improvement in estimation and prediction accuracy by the learned context dependent models over standard models, which only consider vehicle dynamics.
    Full-text · Conference Paper · Oct 2013
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    • "Another solution is to use Monte-Carlo simulation to explore the dierent possible realizations of a maneuver by sampling on the input variables [16]. Other works propose integrated frameworks based on Markov State Space Models (MSSM) which explicitly represent the maneuver intention of drivers and allow the prediction of future trajectories without the need of a separate maneuver intention estimation step [17] [18] [19]. "
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    ABSTRACT: This work tackles the risk estimation problem from a new perspective: a framework is proposed for reasoning about traffic situations and collision risk at a semantic level, while classic approaches typically reason at a trajectory level. Risk is assessed by estimating the intentions of drivers and detecting conflicts between them, rather than by predicting the future trajectories of the vehicles and detecting collisions between them. More specifically, dangerous situations are identified by comparing what drivers intend to do with what they are expected to do according to the traffic rules. The reasoning about intentions and expectations is performed in a probabilistic manner, in order to take into account sensor uncertainties and interpretation ambiguities. This framework can in theory be applied to any type of traffic situation; here we present its application to the specific case of road intersections. The proposed motion model takes into account the mutual influences between the maneuvers performed by vehicles at an intersection. It also incorporates information about the influence of the geometry and topology of the intersection on the behavior of a vehicle, and therefore can be applied to arbitrary intersection layouts. The approach was validated with field trials using passenger vehicles equipped with Vehicle-to-Vehicle wireless communication modems, and in simulation. The results demonstrate that the algorithm is able to detect dangerous situations early and complies with real-time constraints.
    Full-text · Article · Oct 2013
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