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A new database on human mortality and morbidity, and civil evacuations arising from volcanic activity is presented. The aim is to quantify the human impacts of volcanic phenomena during the 20th Century. Data include numbers of deaths, injuries, evacuees and people made homeless, and the nature of the associated volcanic phenomena. The database has been compiled from a wide range of sources, and discrepancies between these are indicated where they arise. The quality of the data varies according to the source and the impacts reported. Data for homelessness are particularly poor and effects from ashfall and injuries appear to be under-reported. Of the 491 events included in the database, ∼53% resulted in deaths, although the total death toll of 91,724 is dominated by the disasters at Mt Pelée and Nevado del Ruiz. Pyroclastic density currents account for the largest proportion of deaths, and lahars for the most injuries incurred. The Philippines, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia, as a region, were the worst affected, and middle-income countries experienced greater human impacts than low or high-income countries. Compilation of the database has highlighted a number of problems with the completeness and accuracy of the existing CRED EM-DAT disaster database that includes volcanic events. This database is used by a range of organisations involved with risk management. The new database is intended as a resource for future analysis and will be made available via the Internet. It is hoped that it will be maintained and expanded.
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Volcanic disasters and incidents: A new database
C.S. Witham*
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK
Received 29 June 2004; received in revised form 26 April 2005; accepted 27 April 2005
Abstract
A new database on human mortality and morbidity, and civil evacuations arising from volcanic activity is presented. The aim
is to quantify the human impacts of volcanic phenomena during the 20th Century. Data include numbers of deaths, injuries,
evacuees and people made homeless, and the nature of the associated volcanic phenomena. The database has been compiled
from a wide range of sources, and discrepancies between these are indicated where they arise. The quality of the data varies
according to the source and the impacts reported. Data for homelessness are particularly poor and effects from ashfall and
injuries appear to be under-reported. Of the 491 events included in the database, ~53% resulted in deaths, although the total
death toll of 91,724 is dominated by the disasters at Mt Pele´e and Nevado del Ruiz. Pyroclastic density currents account for the
largest proportion of deaths, and lahars for the most injuries incurred. The Philippines, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia, as a
region, were the worst affected, and middle-income countries experienced greater human impacts than low or high-income
countries. Compilation of the database has highlighted a number of problems with the completeness and accuracy of the
existing CRED EM-DAT disaster database that includes volcanic events. This database is used by a range of organisations
involved with risk management. The new database is intended as a resource for future analysis and will be made available via
the Internet. It is hoped that it will be maintained and expanded.
D2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Volcano; human impacts; disaster; casualties; fatalities; evacuation
1. Introduction
The record of human impacts of volcanism offers
important lessons for volcanic risk management.
Impacts range in magnitude from mass casualty
events arising from lahars or pyroclastic currents in-
undating urban areas to light ashfalls that inconve-
nience only a small number of people. The further
back in history we look, the scarcer the written
records of such impacts become and the harder it is
to evaluate the global picture. Records for recent
events are more numerous and often contain informa-
tion on the human consequences. In recent decades,
international news reports and aid-agency press
releases have added to the amount of information
available. The 20th Century provides a reasonable
0377-0273/$ - see front matter D2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2005.04.017
* Fax: +44 1223 333392.
E-mail address: claire.witham@metoffice.gov.uk.
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191 – 233
www.elsevier.com/locate/jvolgeores
balance between length of time of the record and
availability of data, and for this reason was selected
as the focus of analysis here.
An obvious classification of the human impacts of
historical volcanic eruptions is by numbers of fatali-
ties. But other impacts are important, including inju-
ries sustained and medical intervention (although
these factors are less frequently reported). With the
development of volcano monitoring and risk manage-
ment practice, the evacuation and relocation of popu-
lations is increasingly common (Tobin and Whiteford,
2002). Evacuees clearly also represent an important
impact, since evacuation itself is often a traumatic
process, and the housing of evacuees in often crowded
shelters can lead to public health concerns. Famine
and epidemic disease in displaced communities have
led to high mortality in some historical volcanic dis-
asters; for example, an estimated 49,000 people died
following the Tambora eruption of 1815 (Tanguy et
al., 1998). The threat of disease is still present when
large numbers of people are displaced, even with the
resources of today’s international aid community. In
the case of the spontaneous evacuation of several
hundred thousand residents of Goma during the
2002 Nyiragongo eruption, a key action was the
purification of water supplies to mitigate against chol-
era outbreaks (Baxter and Ancia, 2002).
The effects on society can persist long after the
onset of volcanic unrest or cessation of activity. For
instance, people may be displaced in evacuation cen-
tres for many months after the activity starts, their
homes and livelihoods may have been destroyed, and
subsequent heavy rains may remobilise deposited ma-
terial forming hazardous lahars (volcanic mudflows).
Such impacts need to be considered when assessing
the human consequences of eruptions.
Databases cataloguing some of the human impacts
of volcanic activity already exist (CRED, 2004; Sim-
kin and Siebert, 1994; Tanguy et al., 1998), but they
vary in the impacts that they record, the scale of the
impacts included, and the time period that they cover.
Tanguy et al. (1998) tallied best estimates of fatalities
and their causes for what they considered the major
eruptions since 1783. They estimated that 221,907
people died in this period, with about 86,224 of
these fatalities the result of only 27 eruptions in the
20th Century. Simkin and Siebert (1994) (based partly
on the work of Russell Blong) list fatalities for his-
torical eruptions through to 1994, and evacuations
from 1976 to 1994, based on volcanological reports
and papers.
The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of
Disasters (CRED) Disaster Events Database (EM-
DAT) (CRED, 2004; Sapir and Misson, 1992) was
developed in the early 1990s and contains records of
disasters requiring international assistance since 1900.
This database is available on the Internet and its bmain
objective ... is to serve the purposes of humanitarian
action at national and international levels. It is an
initiative aimed to rationalise decision making for
disaster preparedness, as well as providing an objec-
tive base for vulnerability assessment and priority
settingQ(CRED, 2004). It is used by agencies such
as the Asian Disaster Reduction Centre in risk man-
agement. EM-DAT uses international aid organisation
reports, national government statements, insurance
company reports and media reports, as sources on
disaster events, and includes information on fatalities,
injuries, homelessness, persons affected and financial
losses. A cursory inspection of the volcanic events
section of the database reveals a range of errors. These
include eruptions listed more than once, eruptions
with the incorrect name and/or date (some the
wrong year), and the omission of a number of signif-
icant volcanic disasters. One of the consequent aims
of this work is to match up the EM-DAT events with
the best available information from other sources.
The CRED database, by definition, lists only di-
saster events and Tanguy et al. (1998) only included
eruptions with high fatalities. This means that small
events are missing from these records. To determine
the cut-off point of inclusion in these databases, it is
necessary to consider what the impact thresholds are
for a natural hazard event to be classed as a bdisasterQ.
A variety of definitions of disaster exist: some are
qualitative descriptions of impacts, whilst others are
quantitative thresholds that must be exceeded. Differ-
ences in these definitions can produce very different
outcomes for disaster statistics (e.g., Wijkman and
Timberlake, 1984) and lead to confusion. The UN
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)
defines a disaster as: ba serious disruption of the
functioning of society, causing widespread human,
material or environmental losses, which exceed the
ability of the affected society to cope using only its
own resourcesQ(UN/ISDR, 2004). A similar defini-
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233192
tion of disaster was originally used in EM-DAT: bAn
interruption in time and space of normal processes
beyond the coping capacity of the community, causing
death, injury or homelessness, direct material losses
and/or negative economic impact. The interruption
can be either sudden or gradual onsetQ(Sapir and
Misson, 1992). These definitions specify the main
categories of human impact, but they do not provide
much of a basis for quantifying their scale.
The first inventory of natural disasters and impacts
(Sheehan and Hewitt, 1969) and its follow-up (Dwor-
kin, 1974), defined a major disaster in quantitative
terms, as one that satisfied at least one of the follow-
ing conditions:
!At least 100 persons dead.
!At least 100 persons injured.
!At least US$1,000,000 damage (this was subse-
quently inflation-adjusted to $3,600,000 by Shah,
1983).
Other quantitative definitions of disaster thresholds
include more than 50 people seriously injured or 2000
homes destroyed or damage exceeding US$58,600,000
at 1992 prices (McGuire, 1999), and at least 20
people dead or missing, or 50 people injured, or
2000 homeless, or total insured losses of US$74.9
million at 2004 prices (Swiss Re, 2005). The current
quantitative criteria used by CRED for entering an
event into EM-DAT is: bA disaster has to have killed
10 or more persons or affected 100 or more persons.
An international appeal for assistance, however, takes
first precedence for entry, even if the first two criteria
are not fulfilledQ(Sapir and Misson, 1992). This
improves the original CRED definition by providing
baseline numbers of people, but the differences be-
tween the thresholds in the various definitions dem-
onstrate the uncertainty and confusion that can arise
when dealing with natural disasters. Shah (1983)
suggested that the criteria for judging the impact of
any natural disaster should also include the extent of
the geographical area affected. In a volcanic disaster
context, geographical area affected is difficult to as-
sess, as there may be vast areas receiving small, but
inconsequential, amounts of ashfall. That said, the
health risks of ash remain poorly understood, and
the widespread fallout of ash from major eruptions
may have long-term health impacts in certain cases
(Horwell et al., 2003a,b; Searl et al., 2002). Impact
will then depend significantly on population distribu-
tion. For these reasons, area affected is a problematic
category to include in a volcanic disaster database.
The number of people evacuated must, however, be
considered for a volcanic disaster.
Here we present a new database of 20th Century
volcanic events that have impacted people. The ratio-
nale behind constructing this new database is that
there is no comprehensive catalogue of all the
human impacts over time. The availability of accurate
and comprehensive statistics is vital to understanding
the impacts of volcanism on society. This understand-
ing, in turn, contributes to the efficiency and effec-
tiveness with which humanitarian agencies serve
vulnerable people (International Federation of Red
Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2002). We have
aimed here to include all volcanic events that have
affected humans in the 20th Century. To avoid the
somewhat arbitrary definitions of bdisasterQand ex-
pand on previous work, we consider all volcano-re-
lated incidents in the database, where an bincidentQis
an event that causes a human impact, but is not
necessarily on a scale to classify as a disaster. To
avoid confusion, we use the terms bincidentQor
beventQto refer to all entries in the database. We not
only consider eruptions, but any event associated with
prior or ongoing volcanic activity. This includes inci-
dents at non-erupting volcanoes such as deaths from
gas emission or secondary lahars.
The years that should be taken as the start and the
end of any century are subject to debate, but for this
purpose the 20th Century is taken to be the years 1900
to 1999. The database is constructed in such a way
that it is easy to expand into the 21st Century or back
into history. The bliveQdatabase will be published
online at the website of the International Volcanic
Health Hazards Network (www.ivhhn.org) in due
course.
2. Methods
Data on the human consequences of volcanic inci-
dents were compiled from a wide range of primary
and secondary sources and these are referenced for
each database entry. These sources include the CRED-
EMDAT database, Volcanoes of the World (Simkin
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233 193
and Siebert, 1994), the Smithsonian Institution activ-
ity reports, the Catalogue of Active Volcanoes and the
Bulletin of Volcanic Eruptions, in addition to many
peer-reviewed articles and press reports. It was not
feasible to check from primary sources every listed
event contained in the secondary sources, but wher-
ever possible more than one source is used for each
event. Readers interested in more qualitative data are
referred to the relevant publication(s) listed as the
source. Abbreviations used in the database to denote
sources are:
!CAVW—Catalogue of Active Volcanoes of the
World.
!CSLP—Center for Short-Lived Phenomena, Event
Notification Report, Smithsonian Institution.
!BGVN—Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Net-
work, Smithsonian Institution.
!BVE—Bulletin of Volcanic Eruptions, published in
Bulletin Volcanologique.
!SEAN—Scientific Event Alert Network Bulletin,
Smithsonian Institution.
!VoW—Simkin and Siebert, 1994, Volcanoes of the
World.
Information for each volcano in the database
includes name, Smithsonian Institution volcano num-
ber, country and geographic coordinates. Where nec-
essary, volcano names given in the original sources
were changed to those used in the Smithsonian Insti-
tution gazetteer (www.volcano.si.edu). This provides
consistency in the database and allows cross-referenc-
ing. Latitude and longitude of each volcano are also
taken from the gazetteer allowing the geographical
distribution of disasters to be interrogated.
The dates used for the events in the database are
generally the dates that the activity or listed phenom-
ena had a severe impact on people (causing evacua-
tions, deaths etc). Where such dates are unknown or
unclear, the start date of the activity is given instead.
Problems with dates ascribed to volcanic activity have
been considered by Hittelman et al. (2001).
For each event, the number of people bkilledQ,
binjuredQ,baffectedQand bmade homelessQare listed.
The total number of people impacted by the event is
also given. Some sources occasionally report financial
losses caused by volcanic activity, but there is little
consistency in the availability of such data so this
attribute has been omitted. The number of persons
bkilledQincludes all confirmed dead, all missing and
all presumed dead (where this information is available).
Persons binjuredQincludes all those with physical inju-
ries requiring medical attention or hospitalisation. Per-
sons baffectedQprimarily refers to evacuees. The four
categories are not necessarily mutually exclusive. For
instance, the people that are made homeless will nor-
mally make up part of the population that has been
evacuated. The inclusion of such people in more than
one category in the database would result in over-
inflated values for the total number of people affected.
Where there is sufficient information to suggest that
this is the case, the btotal affectedQcategory has been
adjusted. Consequently, the total is not always the sum
of all four categories.
The terms binjuredQand baffectedQcause problems
in that they are not properly defined in disaster report-
ing and collection of data may be strongly controlled
by the location and type of the event. Event location
and development status of the country will influence
the presence and accessibility of medical facilities for
injured persons and in remote locations and less-de-
veloped countries injuries may go unaided and, hence,
unreported. This will be a problem particularly for the
early events in the database. bAffectedQis an awkward
category, because it is inexact. People can be affected
by volcanic activity in many ways, from ashfall hin-
dering daily activities to long-term evacuation, the
exact effect being determined by the type and location
of the volcanic activity. There are no standards for
reporting these different impacts and so, at present,
they are all contained within the one category, if they
are reported at all.
One of the aims of the database is to provide a
quantitative indication of the impacts of volcanic
phenomena on people in the 20th Century. Often,
accurate figures for people affected are unavailable,
particularly where large areas have been impacted.
Consequently, any numerical analysis will be, at
best, a rough estimate. The large events and their
associated errors will also drown out the signal from
the smaller events. A range of values can often be
found in the literature for given impacts. In these
instances, the CRED approach is to take the average
value. The volcanological records and literature are
generally more precise (although not necessarily more
accurate) when quoting numbers of people, so we
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233194
have tried to avoid the CRED approach by collecting
data from other sources. Where a number of values do
occur in trusted sources, the range is given in the
relevant impact field of the database and the reported
values provided in the accompanying notes. Ranges of
values hinder quantitative analysis, so the value from
the most trusted source (or an average if there is
uncertainty) is identified in a separate bquantitativeQ
field for each impact.
The 1994 unrest of Taal volcano in the Philippines
highlights the difficulty of establishing firm estimates
of the movement and behaviour of people during a
volcanic crisis. News reports on the situation (sum-
marised in BGVN 19:02) are unclear on both the
number of people evacuated from the island and the
circumstances of their departure, with one report tell-
ing of hundreds who fled and another of thousands
who were ordered to evacuate. Similar conflicting
accounts exist for many other incidents in the data-
base. This makes estimating evacuation numbers
problematic and increases the error associated with
this category.
Many records give only a qualitative indication of
the impacts of events, such as bmany were injuredQor
bone village was evacuatedQ. To enable a quantitative
examination of the database, these descriptors had to
be transferred into numbers. The enumeration policy
in Table 1 was adopted based on the approaches of
Simkin et al. (2001) and CRED. The values of Simkin
et al. (2001) have been used in preference to those
from CRED to enable comparison between this work
and theirs. A default value of 1000 has been applied
here whenever there is reference to a village, an area
or an island being evacuated or affected, but no
further information. It is acknowledged that this
value may be too large for some instances (for exam-
ple remote villages) and that future refinement of the
enumeration policy based on geographical knowledge
could reduce the range of error associated with such
events. A default value of 10 000 (and multiples
thereof) was applied in three instances where there
were references to a town(s) being affected. Where
there is no value, range or qualitative statement given,
but impacts are known to have occurred, a question
mark is shown in the database. In such instances, a
default numeric value of 15 is attributed to the event,
following the specification of Simkin et al. (2001).
Their derivation of the values for bunknownQand
bmanyQis explained in more detail in Simkin et al.
(2001). The conversion of cases of homelessness
defined in terms of families is done by multiplying
by the average family size in the region as defined by
CRED: 5 for developing countries and 3 for devel-
oped countries (reduced from actual estimates of 5.6
and 3.5, respectively (Sapir and Misson, 1992)). The
developed country value probably underestimates ac-
tual numbers for the early part of the century, as
families and households were larger then than today.
Similar issues of under-estimation surround records
where the best estimate is known to be the minimum
possible value.
To enable geographical analysis of events, each
record includes the volcano’s location, country and
region. The fifteen regions used were modified and
extended from those used in the EM-DAT to make
them more applicable to the distribution of the volca-
noes. Hawaii is here included under North America.
For each region, a representative location on the world
map was used for plotting the data graphically.
Each country was assigned a development level
using the World Bank’s 2000/2001 development re-
port (World Bank, 2000). This divides the economic
status of countries into one of three categories: low
income (L), middle income (M), and high income (H).
Islands belonging to other countries—e.g., Martini-
que, which is an overseas department of France—
have been given the development code of their parent
country, which may be unrepresentative. These codes
are only valid for the recent past, but provide a
Table 1
Enumerators/multipliers used where qualitative descriptions of
impacts are given instead of numbers
Qualitative description CRED-EMDAT Simkin
et al. (2001)
This
work
Few/some 3 3
Several 5 5
Unknown 15 15
Family/house
developed country
3–3
Family/house
developing country
5–5
Many 100 100
Hundreds 200 300 300
Thousands 2000 3000 3000
Village – 1000
Town 10 000
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233 195
reasonable proxy for the general pattern of develop-
ment over the 20th Century. However, it is important
to recognise the relationships between development
and disasters (e.g., UN/ISDR, 2004). The economic
development of Honduras, for example, was put back
by approximately 20 years by the damage wrought by
Hurricane Mitch in 1998 (International Federation of
Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2002). Some
volcanoes are located in generally uninhabited areas
and appear in the database because people have been
injured or killed whilst on fieldwork or tourist trips.
Although these volcanoes have been assigned a de-
velopment status, its relevance is debatable.
The cause of a volcanic incident is an important
consideration for future hazard assessment and the
phenomena causing death/injury/affect is given for
each event where known. The cause has been sub-
divided into 14 categories (Table 2). Each phenome-
non has been given a code letter, which is used in the
database bDis codeQfield. These codes have been
derived following the classification schemes of Sim-
kin and Siebert (1994) and Tanguy et al. (1998).
Different letters are used for each phenomenon to
avoid confusion and facilitate sorting and query of
the database in an electronic environment. Where
more than one type of volcanic activity has occurred,
the numbers of people affected by each phenomenon
are given for the data entries, if known. In many
instances, however, it is unclear what the cause(s) of
death/injury/evacuation was. These events are not
assigned a disaster code due to lack of information.
The numbers of people mildly affected by ashfall are
often vast and unrecorded and these are not included.
Neither are the numbers of people injured in road-
traffic accidents following ashfall, as such statistics
are difficult to obtain. Major aviation incidents involv-
ing multiple engine loss to individual aircraft are
included, but other aviation events such as rerouting
or airport closure are omitted for similar reasons.
2.1. Problems in assigning event data
A number of complications were encountered
when compiling the database. The main problems
were:
!Lack of corroboration between the dates and
impacts given in different sources, leading to
many double entries during the building of the
database;
!Incorrect naming of the volcano causing an event;
!Double reporting of the same event, but with dif-
ferent dates in the same source;
!Finding literature sources to verify events listed in
the CRED database or mentioned in online reports
or news articles;
!Determining the phenomena causing the effect,
particularly for the older eruptions. In a number
of instances this was not possible;
!Determining numbers of people from vague qual-
itative statements;
!Determining whether references to bcasualtiesQin-
dicated numbers of dead and/or injured.
Data from additional sources was sought in all
cases where problems arose, but in some instances
uncertainty could not be resolved. Careful cross-
Table 2
Codes for impact causes
Code Phenomena
causing impact
Comments
T Tephra Includes ballistics and explosions
(including steam blasts). Deaths
may be due to suffocation and
tephra loading causing roofs to
collapse.
P Pyroclastic
density currents
Includes directed blasts
M Primary lahars Mudflows associated with eruptions
N Secondary
lahars/flooding
Non-eruptive. May be triggered by
heavy rainfall.
D Debris
flows/avalanches
L Lava flows
S Seismicity Associated with volcanic activity,
leading to building collapse.
W Tsunami (waves) Volcanogenic
JJo¨kulhlaups
G Gas/acid rain No eruption necessary
H Volcanic unrest Volcanic unrest or hazard leading to
evacuation, where a range of
precursors had been noticed.
F Famine Indirect
E Epidemic Indirect, often a factor in displaced
populations
I Other indirect Indirect, other than famine or
epidemic
Derived following Tanguy et al. (1998) and Simkin and Siebert
(1994).
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233196
referencing of events and their dates and impacts
allowed most of the problems above to be solved
and we believe that all the double and incorrect events
have been removed. Data from all the sources con-
sulted for each event, including those that are recog-
nised as erroneous, are noted in the database to
highlight the discrepancies that exist in the available
literature and clarify previous inaccuracies.
3. Results
A total of 491 events are listed in the database
spanning the whole of the 20th Century (1900 to
1999). These range in type from the evacuation of a
couple of people, to the deaths of tens of thousands
and show that the values for the total number of
people impacted by eruptions are predominantly con-
trolled by the numbers of people evacuated/affected.
The information contained in the database about each
event allows the spatial and temporal distribution of
incidents over time to be considered and results of
analysis of the data by impacts, location, cause and
year are presented below.
The quality of the data contained in the database is
variable, ranging from published anecdotal reports to
summaries of medical records. Even for well-studied
eruptions the information on numbers of people im-
pacted is often imprecise and in many cases data on
injuries and wider effects is suspected to be lacking.
This partly reflects the problems associated with col-
lecting such data, particularly in developing countries
where medical and communication facilities may be
limited. To indicate the problems with data quality, all
reported values found for the different impacts are
given in the database. These show that the increase
through the century in communication of human
impacts has sometimes compounded the problem of
obtaining accurate statistics by providing an increased
number of differing values. Lack of meta-data on
where values have been obtained from and when
(fatality estimates/counts often change with time
since the event (e.g., Alexander, 1993)) reduces the
confidence that can be placed in some of the data.
A simplified version of the database is given in
Table 3. For compactness, this version excludes the
Smithsonian Institution number, latitude and longi-
tude of the volcanoes, and accompanying comments,
and reduces the date to one column. All dates are
given in yyyy/mm/dd format. Where the days or
months are unknown or uncertain, they are either
left blank or denoted by b~Q, respectively. The list of
sources for the database is given in Appendix A. The
full version of the database, which includes comments
on the different data sources, will be posted online at
the website of the International Volcanic Health
Hazards Network (www.ivhhn.org).
3.1. By number killed/injured/homeless/affected
The total numbers of people killed; injured; made
homeless, and evacuated or affected by volcanic phe-
nomena in the 20th Century are given in Table 4. Due
to the qualitative references present in many event
descriptions, these values should be treated as approx-
imations only, particularly those for the homeless,
evacuated and total affected categories. Ranges for
deaths and injuries are much better constrained than
those for the other categories. To account for the
uncertainty, maximum and minimum estimates were
calculated (Table 5) using the ranges in the database.
For the minimum estimation, all values corresponding
to qualitative references were removed. For the max-
imum estimate, the same enumerators were applied as
in the best estimate scenario. This means that the best
estimate values appear closer to the maximum than
the minimum and that the maximum value is only a
rough estimate. The values used in the rest of the data
analysis are those from the best estimate.
The results discussed below assume that the data-
base is reasonably comprehensive in its inclusion of
events. This is impossible to test or prove and it
should be remembered that all percentages and ratios
here are relative to the calculated best estimate totals
and do not account for any error ranges. Under report-
ing of certain outcomes, such as injuries, and issues of
data completeness and quality mean that all values
should be viewed with a high degree of caution.
Table 4 shows that more events resulted in fatalities
than any other outcome (~53% of events), but that
more people were evacuated or affected than any
other consequence (~94% of people). This indicates
the importance of including numbers on people af-
fected in incident reports, even if they are at best
rough approximations. Injuries account for the smal-
lest group of people (~0.3%), suggesting that, consid-
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233 197
Tab le 3
Database of 20th Century volcanic incidents
Kirishima
Asama
Adatara
Kelut
Pelée
Soufriere
St. Vincent
Tori–shima
Santa Maria
Okataina
(Tarawera)
Karthala
Merapi
Karthala
Vesuvius
Savaii
Vesuvius
Alayta
Lewotobi
Semeru
Taupo
Usu
Taal
Asama
Asama
Novarupta
(Katmai)
Nyamuragira
Asama
Ambrym
Sakura–jima
Lassen
White Island
Japan
Japan
Japan
Indonesia
Martinique
St .Vincent
Japan
Guatemala
New Zealand
Comoros
Indonesia
Comoros
Italy
Western
Samoa
Italy
Ethiopia
Indonesia
Indonesia
New Zealand
Japan
Philippines
Japan
Japan
Alaska
Zaire
Japan
Vanuatu
Japan
USA
New Zealand
H
H
H
L
H
M
H
M
H
L
L
L
H
M
H
L
L
L
H
H
M
H
H
H
L
H
M
H
H
H
East Asia
East Asia
East Asia
South–east Asia
Caribbean
Caribbean
East Asia
Central America
Oceania
East Africa
South–east Asia
East Africa
European Union
Oceania
European Union
Central Africa
South–east Asia
South–east Asia
Oceania
East Asia
South–east Asia
East Asia
East Asia
Aleutians
Central Africa
East Asia
Oceania
East Asia
North America
Oceania
P
T/P
M
P(28,577)/
M(423)
P
T
T?(2000–
3000)/E(50
00–10,000)
T
G
P
L
T
L
T(213)/L(3)
/G(2)
M
M
M
P/W
T
T
T
L
T
T
D(12–26?)
/T(2)/I(23)
/S(rest)
T
D
1900/2/16
1900/7/15
1900/7/17
1901/5/22
1902/5/5
1902/5/7
1902/8/8
1902/10/24
1903/8/30
1903//
1904/1/30
1904/2/25
1905/3/10
1905/8/4
1906/4/6
1907/6/
1907/10/16
1909/8/29
1910/3/20
1910/7/25
1911/1/30
1911/5/8
1911/8/15
1912/6/6
1912/12/
1913/5/29
1913/12/5
1914/1/12
1914/6/14
1914/9/10
2
> 25?
72
many?
29,000
1565–
1680
125
> 4500
–13000
3 to 4
17
16
1
1
218–700
?
1
221
1
1
1335
1
2+
2
20
1
21
23–140
10 to 11
3
10
123
120–144
20–45
1
300
several
199
87–127
1
3
10
123
144
45
1
300
5
199
121
1
3 villages
several/5
villages
3000
5000
1350
100,000
15,000
islanders
50,000
5
25
82
100
30,473
1709
125
8750
4
17
3061
1
2
5000
100,518
15
6
221
1
15,001
1534
1
2
2
20
1
1021
50,179
1
11
2
25
72
100
29,000
1565
125
8750
4
17
16
1
1
218
15
1
221
1
1
1335
1
2
2
20
1
21
58
11
Volcano Country Dev Region Dis code Date yyyy
/mm/dd Killed Killed
quant Injured Injured
quant Homeless Homeless
quant Affected
(incl evac) Affected (incl
evac) quant TotAff quan
t
1350
100,000
15,000
1000
50,000
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233198
Okataina
(Tarawera)
Agrigan
San Salvador
(El Boqueron)
Urupuzima (?)
Kelut
Stromboli
Nasu
Merapi
Nasu
Tangkuban-
parahu
Kirishima
Kilauea
Papandayan
Santorini
Tokachi
Tokachi
Izalco
Dieng
Mayon
Paluweh
Etna
Vesuvius
Komagatake
Etna
Santa Maria
Ambrym
Asama
Stromboli
Merapi
Asama
Fuego
Kusatsu
Shirane
Harimkotan
Hakone
Kuchinoerabu
jima
New Zealand
Mariana Is.
El Salvador
Japan
Indonesia
Italy
Japan
Indonesia
Japan
Indonesia
Japan
USA
Indonesia
Greece
Japan
Japan
El Salvador
Indonesia
Philippines
Indonesia
Italy
Italy
Japan
Italy
Guatemala
Vanuatu
Japan
Italy
Indonesia
Japan
Guatemala
Japan
Kurile Is.
Japan
Japan
H
H
M
H
L
H
H
L
H
L
H
H
L
H
H
H
M
L
M
L
H
H
H
H
M
M
H
H
L
H
M
H
M
H
H
Oceania
Oceania
Central America
East Asia
Southeast Asia
European Union
East Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
North America
Southeast Asia
European Union
East Asia
East Asia
Central America
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
European Union
European Union
East Asia
European Union
Central America
Oceania
East Asia
European Union
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Central America
East Asia
East Asia
East Asia
East Asia
T
T
S/L
W
M
T
G
P
G
G
T
G
T
M(137)
/T(3)
M
P
T(1)
P
W(128)/T
L
L
T
P/M
T
P
P
T
T
M
W
G
T, ?P(26)
1917/4/1
1917/4/9
1917/6/6
1918/9/8
1919/5/19
1919/5/22
1919/7/6
1920/10/12
1921/11/26
1923/6/
1923/7/
1924/5/18
1924/12/18
1925/8/11
1926/5/24
1926/9/8
1926/11/5
1928/5/13
1928/6/25
1928/8/4
1928/11/7
1929/6/3
1929/6/17
1929/8/2
1929/11/2
1929//
1930/8/20
1930/9/11
1930/12/18
1931/8/20
1932/1/21
1932/10/1
1933/1/8
1933/5/10
1933/12/24
2
352?
24
5000
5160
4
2
3335
1?
3
1
1
1
144
2
?
40
> 1
226
2
2
2005000
6
4>6
1369
3
some
2
2
1
8
1+ 1
100
1000
13,000
3
1
352
24
50,110
54
2
1035
1
3
1
1
1
100
15,351
2
15
40
1
426
4650
180
6
2
5000
1000
6
24
14,369
3
3
9
2
1
34
9000 houses
/104 villages
10 houses
1 village
5000/5080
houses
43005000
60 houses
13 villages
45,000
30
1000
15,000
4650
180
13,000
many
islanders
higher villages
Aoba Vanuatu M Oceania M 1914// 12
1
20
> 207
200
4
20
7
26
1
20
207
200
4
20
7
26
12
2
352
24
5110
4
2
35
1
3
1
1
1
144
2
15
40
1
226
2
2
5000
6
4
1369
3
3
2
2
1
8
12
(continued on next page)
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233 199
Tab le 3 ( continued)
Volcano Country Dev Region Dis code Date yyyy
/mm/dd Killed Killed
quant Injured Injured
quant Homeless Homeless
quant Affected
(incl evac) Affected (incl
evac) quant TotAff quan
t
Merapi
Mt. Hood
Asama
Asama
Rabaul
Asama
Lopevi
Torishima
Dieng
MiyakeJima
Karangetang
Karangetang
Asama
Michoacan
(Paricutin)
Merapi
Cerro Azul
Vesuvius
Cleveland
Usu
Usu
Dieng
Usu
Sakurajima
Semeru
Ruang
Niuafo'ou
Asama
Hekla
Iliwerung
Villarica
Purace
HibokHibok
Villarica
Mauna Loa
HibokHibok
Asama
Ambrym
Indonesia
USA
Japan
Japan
Papua New
Guinea
Japan
Vanuatu
Japan
Indonesia
Japan
Indonesia
Indonesia
Japan
Mexico
Indonesia
Galapagos
Italy
Aleutian Is.
Japan
Japan
Indonesia
Japan
Japan
Indonesia
Indonesia
Tonga
Japan
Iceland
Indonesia
Chile
Colombia
Philippines
Chile
USA
Philippines
Japan
Vanuatu
L
H
H
H
M
H
M
H
L
H
L
L
H
M
L
M
H
H
H
H
L
H
H
L
L
M
H
H
L
H
M
M
H
H
M
H
M
Southeast Asia
North America
East Asia
East Asia
Oceania
East Asia
Oceania
East Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Central America
Southeast Asia
South America
European Union
Aleutians
East Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Oceania
East Asia
Rest of Europe
Southeast Asia
South America
South America
Southeast Asia
South America
North America
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Oceania
P
G
T
T
P/T(375
Blong)/
I(few)
T
L
L
T
L
T
O(3)/I(100)
P
T
T(24)
/L(2)/ I(1)
T
T
G
T
T
L(homes)
T
H
L
T
L
P
M
T
P?
M
L
P
T
T
1934/11/17
1934
1936/7/29
1936/10/17
1937/5/29
1938/7/16
1939/2/2
1939/8/18
1939/10/13
1940/7/12
1940/8/23
1940/10/
1941/7/9
1943/2/20
1943/4/1
1943/4/13
1944/3/
1944/6/10
1944/6/23
1944/8/26
1944/12/4
1944/12/28
1946/1/
1946/2/
1946/9/
1946//
1947/8/14
1947/11/2
1948/5/7
1948/10/18
1949/5/26
1949/6/
1949/12/
1950/6/1
1950/9/15
1950/9/23
1950//
1
1
1
441507
a few
2
10
11
1
1
~103
1
2627
1
1
114117
1
1
11
1
?
40100
1617
2
36
6684
1
1
1
1
506
3
2
10
11
1
1
103
1
27
1
1
114
1
1
11
1
15
40
16
2
36
66
1
?
20
2
1
1
38 or 250
200
1
20
2
1
1
250
200
1
valley population
several villages
2 villages
63 houses
85 houses
2528
173 houses
2 villages
100 houses
several houses
100
5000
2000
315
255
2528
865
2000
500
15
7500
island evacuated
3288
sector pop
1 village
900
11722500
701+
7500
2000
3288
1000
1000
900
1172
701
100
1
1
1
8006
3
2000
2
325
286
3
1
2
5919
1000
1
27
1
1000
1
1229
1
2001
500
900
1172
11
1
15
240
16
2
36
15
66
2
701
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233200
Lamington
Kelut
Hakone
HibokHibok
Ambrym
Hakone
Bayonnaise
rocks
Binuluan
Tinakula
Sangeang Api
Aso
Sirung
Hakone
Oshima
Ruapehu
Merapi
Kilauea
Tateyama
Bam
HibokHibok
CarranLos
Venados
Sakurajima
Merapi
Bristol Island
Oshima
Capelinhos
Manam
Capelinhos
Aso
Mahawu
Daisetsu
Papua New
Guinea
Indonesia
Japan
Philippines
Vanuatu
Japan
Japan
Philippines
Solomon Is
Indonesia
Japan
Indonesia
Japan
Japan
New Zealand
Indonesia
USA
Japan
Papua New
Guinea
Philippines
Chile
Japan
Indonesia
South
Sandwich
Islands
Japan
Azores
Papua New
Guinea
Azores
Japan
Indonesia
Japan
M
L
H
M
M
H
H
M
L
L
H
L
H
H
H
L
H
H
M
M
H
H
L
H
H
M
H
H
L
H
Oceania
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Oceania
East Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Oceania
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
East Asia
Oceania
Southeast Asia
North America
East Asia
Oceania
Southeast Asia
South America
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Antarctica
East Asia
North Atlantic
Oceania
North Atlantic
East Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
P
T
G
P
T
G
T
M
T
T
D
N
P
L
G
I
N
G
P/T
T
T
P
S
T
M
G
67
several
> 100
1
57
many
53
2028
10
67
5
100
1
57
100
53
28
10
3 villages and
90 homes
~20 homes and
plantation
village
houses
1 village
5 houses
3000
100
75
1000
15
areas evac
islanders from
the South
island evacuated
Sangeang
1 village
island
population
surroundings of
Apu
island
4811
30003200
western part of
island
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
15
4811
3000
1000
3009
7
2
1500
1000
1
29
12
1000
1005
106
6
10
1
151
3121
1000
1
1000
2
2
1
1000
15
54
4811
3000
1000
55
11
2
1951/1/21
1951/8/31
1951/11/5
1951/12/4
1951//
1952/3/27
1952/9/24
1952//
1952//
1953/3/25
1953/4/27
1953/6/
1953/7/26
1953/10/13
1953/12/24
1954/1/18
1954/2/28
1954/7/21
1954//
1954//
1955/7/27
1955/10/13
1956/1/3
1956/1/19
1957/10/13
1957/10/
1957/12/
1958/5/12
1958/6/24
1958/7/12
1958/7/21
2942
3000
7
2
500
1
29 or 31
12
5 to 11
5
10
1
151
3768
1
25
2
2
1
1
10 to12
1
2
2942
7
2
500
1
29
12
6
5
10
1
151
64
1
25
2
2
1
1
12
1
2
(continued on next page)
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233 201
Table 3 (continued)
Volcano Country Dev Region Dis code Date yyyy
/mm/dd Killed Killed
quant Injured Injured
quant Homeless Homeless
quant Affected
(incl evac) Affected (incl
evac) quant TotAff quan
t
Asama
Okinawa
ToriShima
Manam
Lopevi
Merapi
Tateyama
Daisetsu
Asama
Tristan da
Cunha
Tokachi
Merapi
Gamalama
Irazu
Agung
Villarica
Fuego
Batur
Irazu
Merapi
Paluweh
Villarica
Dieng
Taal
Kelut
Taal
Awu
Kuchinoerabu
jima
Rincon de la
Vieja
Tateyama
Semeru
Japan
Japan
Papua New
Guinea
Vanuatu
Indonesia
Japan
Japan
Japan
Atlantic
Japan
Indonesia
Indonesia
Costa Rica
Indonesia
Chile
Guatemala
Indonesia
Costa Rica
Indonesia
Indonesia
Chile
Indonesia
Philippines
Indonesia
Philippines
Indonesia
Japan
Costa Rica
Japan
Indonesia
H
H
M
M
L
H
H
H
H
H
L
L
H
L
H
M
L
H
L
L
H
L
M
L
M
L
H
H
H
L
East Asia
East Asia
Oceania
Oceania
Southeast Asia
East Asia
East Asia
East Asia
South Atlantic
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Central America
Southeast Asia
South America
Central America
Southeast Asia
Central America
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
South America
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Central America
East Asia
Southeast Asia
I
T
H
P
G
G
T
S
T
N
T
P(820/59);
T(155/201);
M(163/36)
M
M
M
N
M
P/W/I
P(1)/M
(211)
T
P/M(10)/I
(1)/T
(injuries)
T
T
G
M
7
6
11
5
5
200
296
3
785
6086
1000
1000s
3
7
6
11
5
5
200
296
3
785
86
2000
3
86
thousands
8000
2000
5000
2000
86
3000
1000
10,000
270
5000
4500
332,234
3000
2000
15
2000
58,000
5000
14,000
40,000
1000
1000
7
86
3000
1000
10012
1
2
1
270
16
5000
10
4715
333,668
15
7
3002
2030
15
4
2025
114
58,975
10,298
14,000
42,039
3
1000
2
1003
1958//
1959/6/
1960/3/17
1960//
1961/4/13
1961/4/23
1961/6/18
1961/8/18
1961/10/10
1962/6/29
1962/10/
1962/12/31
1963/3/17
1963/3/17
1963/5/21
1963/9/30
1963/9/
1963/12/10
1963/12/
1964/1/1
1964/3/3
1964/12/13
1965/9/28
1966/4/24
1966/7/
1966/8/12
1966/11/22
1967/2/23
1967/11/4
1968/3/8
6
1
2
1
5
2
5
5 to 15
1138>
1584
?
7
2?
30 to 40
1
4 to 25
114
190 >
355
208
215
3988
2
3
6
1
2
1
5
2
5
15
1138
15
7
2
30
1
25
114
190
212
39
2
3
810
villages
400 houses
5000
2 villages
island evacuated
communities in
forbidden zone
264270
5 villages
45005000
332,234
3 villages
> 1000
orphanage
2000
13,000 familes;
58,000
5000
~14,000
40,000
population
1000
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233202
Mayon
Arenal
Cerro Negro
Merapi
Iya
Deception Is.
Didicas
Narugo
Canlaon
Campi Flegrei
Tateyama
Lopevi
Jan Mayen
Cerro Negro
Hudson, Cerro
Fuego
Tinakula
Soufriere
St. Vincent
La Palma
Kusatsu
Shirane
Villarica
Piton de la
Fournaise
Hakone
Tateyama
Vestmannaey-
jar (Heimaey)
Hudson, Cerro
Sakurajima
Iliboleng
Iliwerung
Karangetang
Sakurajima
NiigataYake
yama
Philippines
Costa Rica
Nicaragua
Indonesia
Indonesia
Antarctica
Philippines
Japan
Philippines
Italy
Japan
Vanuatu
Jan Mayen
Nicaragua
Chile
Guatemala
Solomon Is.
St. Vincent
Canary Is.
Japan
Chile
Reunion
Japan
Japan
Iceland
Chile
Japan
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Japan
Japan
M
H
L
L
L
M
H
M
H
H
M
H
L
H
M
L
M
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
H
L
L
L
H
H
Southeast Asia
Central America
Central America
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Antarctica
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
European Union
East Asia
Oceania
Rest of Europe
Central America
South America
Central America
Oceania
Caribbean
North Atlantic
East Asia
South America
East Africa
East Asia
East Asia
Rest of Europe
South America
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
East Asia
M(35?),
P(1)
P
T
M/P(dead)
T(1)/N(1)
S
T
G
S
G
T/L
M
T
L
L
G
M
I
G
G
G/L
M
T
T
W
D
N
T
1968/4/21
1968/7/29
1968/10/27
1969/1/7
1969/1/27
1969/2/21
1969/3/26
1969/8/26
1969/10/11
1970/3/2
1970/4/30
1970/5/
1970/9/20
1971/2/3
1971/8/12
1971/9/14
1971/9/27
1971/10/17
1971/10/28
1971/12/27
1971/12/29
1972/8/
1972/10/2
1972/11/25
1973/1/23
1973/4/5
1973/6/1
1973/9/
1973/12?/
1974/4/27
1974/6/17
1974/7/28
3>6
7887
13
2
2 to 3
1
3
1
3 to 5
2 to 10
?
6
1530
3
2
1
1
2
2
4
3
3
6
78
3
2
3
1
3
1
5
10
15
6
15
3
2
1
1
2
2
4
3
3
10
1
10
1
6000
3280
3800; 742
793 homes
287 houses
600
300 houses
4 villages
6000
3280
3800
1435
600
900
4000
45,000
12,391
35 families
surrounding
residents
scientists
evacuated
1700
36,000
island evacuated
39
3000
most settlers, 50
families
1606000
2000
52005300
People around
the volcano
45,000
12,391
175
8000
15
1700
36,000
1000
39
3000
250
6000
2000
5300
1000
51006
15,749
175
3803
8012
15
3
1
1700
36003
1
1000
39
3600
255
10
6000
2000
15
6
15
3
2
1
5301
2
1
1000
2
4004
3
3
(continued on next page)
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233 203
Tab le 3 ( continued)
Volcano Country Dev Region Dis code Date yyyy
/mm/dd Killed Killed
quant Injured Injured
quant Homeless Homeless
quant Affected
(incl evac) Affected (incl
evac) quant TotAff quan
t
Sakurajima
Fuego
Etna
Aso
Arenal
Tateyama
Kilauea
Makian
Kusatsu
Shirane
Sangay
Soufrière
Guadeloupe
Taal
Karangetang
Sarychev
Arenal
Merapi
Semeru
Kadovar
San Miguel
Nyiragongo
Karthala
Piton de la
Fournaise
Aso
Usu
Kilauea
Taal
Semeru
Westdahl
Semeru
Mayon
Bulusan
Sakura-jima
Santa Maria
Japan
Guatemala
Italy
Japan
Costa Rica
Japan
USA
Indonesia
Japan
Ecuador
Guadeloupe
Philippines
Indonesia
Kurile Is.
Costa Rica
Indonesia
Indonesia
Papua New
Guinea
El Salvador
Zaire
Comoros
Reunion
Japan
Japan
USA
Philippines
Indonesia
Aleutian Is.
Indonesia
Philippines
Philippines
Japan
Guatemala
H
M
H
H
H
H
H
L
H
M
H
M
L
M
H
L
L
M
M
L
L
H
H
H
H
M
L
H
L
M
M
H
M
East Asia
Central America
European Union
East Asia
Central America
East Asia
North America
Southeast Asia
East Asia
South America
Caribbean
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Central America
South-east Asia
South-east Asia
Oceania
Central America
Central Africa
East Africa
East Africa
East Asia
East Asia
North America
South-east Asia
South-east Asia
Aleutians
South-east Asia
South-east Asia
South-east Asia
East Asia
Central America
N
T
T
S
P
G
W
H
G
T
T
T
L
T/L
N
M
S
T
L
L
L
T
N/T(evac)
L
T
N
T
N
T/L
T
N
1974/8/9
1974/10/10
1974//
1975/1/23
1975/6/17
1975/8/12
1975/11/29
1976/6/13
1976/8/3
1976/8/12
1976/8/12
1976/8/31
1976/9/19
1976/9/23
1976/10/21
1976/11/25
1976/11/11
to 14
1976/11/
1976/12/2
1977/1/10
1977/4/5
1977/4/8
1977/7/
1977/8/7
1977/9/29
1977/10/3
1977/12/16/26
1978/2/4
1978/3/5
1978/5/7
1978/7/29
1978/8/30
1978/9/2
5
few
some
2
1
2
3
2
1
29
40 or
119?
50-600
0 or ?1
3
1
5
3
3
2
1
2
3
2
1
29
40
600
3
1
10
1many
many
4
4
~ 100
1
10
1
several
2
3
10
100
100
4
4
100
1
10
1
5
2
3
1000s
16 houses
24 homes
258 homes
800
3 villages/5000
2 homes
15 houses
3000
48
96
1290
800
3000
10
75
several towns
8000/3250
families
73,500
several
thousand/11,510
1800
Met staff
70,000
1000?
a few
8000-65,000
4000-20,000
1000-2500
10,000-27,000
250
Taal Island
residents
lighthouse staff
23,000-25,000
1000
40,000
8000
73,500
11,510
1800
15
70,000
1000
3
50,000
4000
2500
27,000
250
10,000
10
5
23,000
1000
5
3003
3
58
40,102
1
102
8000
3
6
73,504
11,610
1802
15
70,000
29
1330
1000
3
51,410
4000
2501
5
27,005
250
10,000
10
5
75
23,000
1000
3
1
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233204
Semeru
Usu
Kliuchevskoi
Piton de la
Fournaise
Ambrym
Dieng
Karkar
Soufriere
St. Vincent
CarranLos
Venados
Marapi
Iliwerung
Etna
Aso
Etna
Llaima
Sierra Negra
Bulusana
Mt. St. Helens
Mt. St. Helens
Bulusan
Mt. St. Helens
Mt. St. Helens
Gamalama
Ulawun
Mt. St. Helens
Paluweh
Etna
Semeru
Semeru
Pagan
Mayon
Gamkonora
Paluweh
Indonesia
Japan
Kamchatka
Reunion
Vanuatu
Indonesia
Papua New
Guinea
St. Vincent
Chile
Indonesia
Indonesia
Italy
Japan
Italy
Chile
Galapagos
Philippines
USA
USA
Philippines
USA
USA
Indonesia
Papua New
Guinea
USA
Indonesia
Italy
Indonesia
Indonesia
Mariana Is.
Philippines
Indonesia
Indonesia
L
H
M
H
M
L
M
M
H
L
L
H
H
H
H
M
M
H
H
M
H
H
L
M
H
L
H
L
L
H
M
L
L
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Aleutians
East Africa
Oceania
Southeast Asia
Oceania
Caribbean
South America
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
European Union
East Asia
European Union
South America
South America
Southeast Asia
North America
North America
Southeast Asia
North America
North America
Southeast Asia
Oceania
North America
Southeast Asia
European Union
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Oceania
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
N
N
T
L
G
G
T
T/P
T
N
W
L
T
T
T
T/L
S
T(51)/M(6)
/I(4+)
T
S
S
S
T
P
S
P
L
P
N
T/L
N
T
T(evac),
P (damage)
1978/9/19
1978/10/24
1978//
1978//
1979/2/10
1979/2/20
1979/3/8
1979/4/13
1979/4/14
1979/4/30
1979/7/7
1979/8/4
1979/9/6
1979/9/12
1979/10/15
1979/11/13
1980/2/7
1980/5/18
1980/6/12
1980/7/6
1980/7/22
1980/8/7
1980/9/4
1980/10/6
1980/10/16
1981/1/18
1981/3/17
1981/3/29
1981/5/14
1981/5/15
1981/6/30
1981/7/19
1981/8/22
12
3
1
142149
2
0 or 2
8082
500
3
9
58
1
192378
47>200
12
3
1
149
2
80
500
3
9
58
1
372
47
2
local
inhabitants
1000
11
2324
10 to 12
152
1
9
2
1000
1000
11
23
12
152
1
9
village
15,00017,000
17,00022,000
125
250
tourists/residents
3090?
area residents
360 + ~5 in
aircraft
1500
area residents
> 120
workers on
flanks
40,00052,235
2000
92
1850
250
272
5000
5354
2500 >3500
inhabitants?1850
1000
17,000
17,000
125
250
1000
60
1000
365
1500
1000
120
120
52,235
2000
92
1850
250
272
5000
53
3500
1850
12
5
1
1000
1000
18149
2
17,000
125
80
500
250
14
32
1000
60
1000
2935
1500
1000
120
120
52,235
2000
92
1850
550
273
5524
53
56
3500
1850
2500
many houses
1 village
2500
300
1000
(continued on next page)
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233 205
Tab le 3 ( continued )
Nyamuragira
Telica
Mt. St. Helens
El Chichón
Galunggung
El Chichón
Santa Maria
Soputan
Cameroon
Sakurajima
Manam
Kilauea
Santa Maria
Colo
(Una Una)
Gamalama
Iliwerung
MiyakeJima
Campi Flegrei
Kliuchevskoi
Llaima
Kilauea
Soputan
Merapi
Unzen
Lake Monoun
Karangetang
Mayon
Ontake
Galunggung
Etna
Kilauea
Zaire
Nicaragua
USA
Mexico
Indonesia
Mexico
Guatemala
Indonesia
Cameroon
Japan
Papua New
Guinea
USA
Guatemala
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Japan
Italy
Kamchatka
Chile
USA
Indonesia
Indonesia
Japan
Cameroon
Indonesia
Philippines
Japan
Indonesia
Italy
USA
L
L
H
M
L
M
M
L
L
H
M
H
M
L
L
L
H
H
M
H
H
L
L
H
L
L
M
H
L
H
H
Central Africa
Central America
North America
Central America
Southeast Asia
Central America
Central America
Southeast Asia
Central Africa
East Asia
Oceania
North America
Central America
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
European Union
Aleutians
South America
North America
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Central Africa
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
European Union
North America
L
T
M
S(10
SEAN)/T(1
53 Blong)/
P(rest)
T/P/L(dest
oyed some
homes)
N
N
T
L
T
L
M
P
T
W
L
S
T
T
L
T
P
D
G
T/M
T/M(1)
D
N
S
L
1002000
23188
1
?some
1
37
1
29
1
2000
37
1
3
1
37
1
29
1
200500
6dozens
3
1
1
2
1
15+
500
100
3
1
1
2
1
30
15,000
22 villages
13 houses
70007101
423 houses
/1100 people
3 houses
1400
area residents
50+
70 families
60,000
62,000300,000
evac and ~755
affected on
aircraft
hundreds
85030,000
~300 + small
town
?
hundreds3500
> 50006334
14004500
< 40,000
tourists/residents
350
10005000
area residents
20,000
70,00073,000
half of village
300
1000
50
210
60,000
62,755
300
850
1300
1000
3500
6334
4400
40,000
1000
350
1000
1000
20,000
73,000
500
300
1000
50
210
62,500
62,892
4
300
850
1300
1
1000
40
3500
7101
6334
3
4400
40,000
1
1000
9
350
1000
2
1038
20,000
73,001
29
500
1431
300
15,000
22,000
39
7101
1100
9
1400
1981/12/26
1982/2/12
1982/3/19
1982/3/29
1982/4/5
1982/5/27
1982/8/25
1982/8/26
1982/10/16
1982/?/
1982//
1983/1/
1983/7/6
1983/7/18
1983/8/9
1983/8/17
1983/10/3
1983/10/4
1983//
1984/4/20
1984/4/20
1984/5/24
1984/6/13
1984/8/6
1984/8/16
1984/9/5
1984/9/10
1984/9/14
1984/9/
1984/10/16
1985/1/
Volcano Country Dev Region Dis code Date yyyy
/mm/dd Killed Killed
quant Injured Injured
quant Homeless Homeless
quant Affected
(incl evac) Affected (incl
evac) quant TotAff quan
t
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233206
Kilauea
Tateyama
Sangeang Api
Canlaon
Nevado del
Ruiz
Nevado del
Ruiz
Concepcion
Piton de la
Fournaise
Tacana
Akita
Yakeyama
Iliboleng
Nevado del
Ruiz
Stromboli
Lake Nyos
Oshima
Kilauea
Oshima
Sakurajima
Santa Maria
Merapi
Pacaya
Kilauea
Etna
Kilauea
Pacaya
Kilauea
Taal
Oshima
Kilauea
Ranakah
Nevado del
Ruiz
USA
Japan
Indonesia
Philippines
Colombia
Colombia
Nicaragua
Reunion
Mexico
Japan
Indonesia
Colombia
Italy
Cameroon
Japan
USA
Japan
Japan
Guatemala
Indonesia
Guatemala
USA
Italy
USA
Guatemala
USA
Philippines
Japan
USA
Indonesia
Colombia
H
H
L
M
M
M
L
H
M
H
L
M
H
L
H
H
H
H
M
L
M
H
H
H
M
H
M
H
H
L
M
North America
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
South America
South America
Central America
East Africa
Central America
East Asia
Southeast Asia
South America
European Union
Central Africa
East Asia
North America
East Asia
East Asia
Central America
Southeast Asia
Central America
North America
European Union
North America
Central America
North America
Southeast Asia
East Asia
North America
Southeast Asia
South America
L
G
L/T
T
M
T/M
G
L
S/T
G
T
H
T
G
I
L
T/L
T
P
N
T
L
T
L
T
L
S
T
L
T
H
1
23,080
1
1
1746
1
1
2
1
23,080
1
1
1746
1
1
2
1
4470
> 845
6
2735
7
1
4470
845
6
27
7
8 houses/51
2830 houses
3 homes
7 homes
1 house
10781242
4 km area
residents
50,000
15,000
some homes
abandoned
250430
17,000
570
1700
4430
all community
residents = 100
homes
10,00013,000
many families
< 3000
some residents
600
a few families
150
420020,000
15,000
1242
1000
50,000
15,000
15
430
17,000
570
1700
4430
300
12,000
500
3000
3
600
15
150
13,000
15,000
1
1
1242
1000
77,550
15,000
15
430
17,000
1
570
1700
1
7021
1
390
12,000
6
500
1
3027
3
9
9
600
21
15
150
3
13,000
15,000
51
90
9
21
3
1985/6/12
1985/7/22
1985/7/30
1985/10/5
1985/11/13
1986/1/4
1986/2/4
1986/3/19
1986/5/7
1986/5/8
1986/5/28
1986/6/12
1986/7/24
1986/8/21
1986/11/15
1986/11/20
1986/11/21
1986/11/23
1986/12/1
1986/12/31
1987/1/21
1987/2/22
1987/4/17
1987/5/
1987/6/14
1987/9/21
1987/10/30
1987/11/16
1987/12/3
1987/12/28
1988/1/4
(continued on next page)
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233 207
Tab le 3 ( continued)
Volcano Country Dev Region Dis code Date yyyy
/mm/dd Killed Killed
quant Injured Injured
quant Homeless Homeless
quant Affected
(incl evac) Affected (incl
evac) quant TotAff quan
t
Gamalama
Nevado del
Ruiz
Banda Api
Sakurajima
Arenal
Makian
Semeru
Karangetang
Tokachi
Lonquimay
Akita
Yakeyama
Poas
Aso
Pacaya
Stromboli
Soputan
Galeras
Kilauea
IzuTobu
Lonquimay
Kirishima
Nevado del
Ruiz
Esa 'Ala
(Dawson Strait
Group)
Redoubt
Redoubt
Kelut
Redoubt
Aso
Poas
Mammoth
Mountain
Anatahan
Indonesia
Colombia
Indonesia
Japan
Costa Rica
Indonesia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Japan
Chile
Japan
Costa Rica
Japan
Guatemala
Italy
Indonesia
Colombia
USA
Japan
Chile
Japan
Colombia
Papua New
Guinea
Alaska
Alaska
Indonesia
Alaska
Japan
Costa Rica
USA
Mariana Is.
L
M
L
H
H
L
L
L
H
H
H
H
H
M
H
L
M
H
H
H
H
M
M
H
H
L
H
H
H
H
H
Southeast Asia
South America
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Central America
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
South America
East Asia
Central America
East Asia
Central America
European Union
Southeast Asia
South America
North America
East Asia
South America
East Asia
South America
Oceania
Aleutians
Aleutians
Southeast Asia
Aleutians
East Asia
Central America
North America
Oceania
T
T
T(2)/L(1)
T
T
T
T
N
M
T/G
G
G
L
I
T
T
L
S
T/G
G
M
S
T/M
M
T(32)/M
M
G
G
G
S
3 to 7
1
1
1
3?
1
2
3236
1
4
1
1
1
3
1
2
35
1
4
1
1
1822
3281
1
4
1
1
22
81
1
430 homes
/2500
32 houses
4 houses
500 houses
3500
several
hundred/1900
500010,000
15,000
~800
10,000
681 and residents
in nearby towns
120
500 3000
2000
300
10,000
< 5000
Dobu Is.; Oiau
area
15 evac and
~245 affected
on aircraft
7
42,77060,000
7
residents in
nearby towns
23
3500
500
7500
15,000
800
10,000
681
120
500
2000
300
10,000
5000
1000
260
7
42,270
7
30,000
23
3500
500
7504
4
2
15,000
1
160
800
10,001
3
681
1
120
1
500
2000
12
322
10,000
2
5000
1000
260
7
42,386
7
1
30,000
1
23
2500
160
12
2500
1988/2/12
1988/3/22
1988/5/8
1988/6/16
1988/7/6
1988/7/17
1988/7/30
1988/11/
1988/12/24
1988/12/25
1988//
1989/1/
1989/2/12
1989/3/7
1989/3/26
1989/4/22
1989/5/4
1989/5/15
1989/6/30
1989/6/
1989/8/26
1989/9/1
1989/12/10
1989/12/14
1990/1/2
1990/2/10
1990/2/15
1990/3/26
1990/3/
1990/3/
1990/4/4
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233208
Kilauea
Aso
Sabancaya
Rabaul
Santa Maria
Agrigan
Kilauea
Ahuachapan
Geothermal
Field , Laguna
Verde
Aso
Nyiragongo
Kelut
Santa Maria
Planchón
Peteroa
Taal
Pinatubo
Unzen
Unzen
Pinatubo
Karthala
Mutnovsky
Lewotobi
Pacaya
Galeras
Hudson, Cerro
Unzen
Hudson, Cerro
Hudson, Cerro
LokonEmpung
Etna
Pinatubo
Deception Is.
USA
Japan
Peru
Papua New
Guinea
Guatemala
Mariana Is.
USA
El Salvador
Japan
Zaire
Indonesia
Guatemala
Chile
Philippines
Philippines
Japan
Japan
Philippines
Comoros
Kamchatka
Indonesia
Guatemala
Colombia
Chile
Japan
Chile
Chile
Indonesia
Italy
Philippines
Antarctica
H
H
M
M
M
H
H
M
H
L
L
M
H
M
M
H
H
M
L
M
L
M
M
H
H
H
H
L
H
M
North America
East Asia
South America
Oceania
Central America
Oceania
North America
Central America
East Asia
Central Africa
Southeast Asia
Central America
South America
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
East Africa
Aleutians
Southeast Asia
Central America
South America
South America
East Asia
South America
South America
Southeast Asia
European Union
Southeast Asia
Antarctica
L
G
T
G
T
G
L
T
G
S
N
D
T
S
T
M
P/D(1
injury)
T(359 T);
M(100
F&M);
E(rest?)
S
I
T
T/S
S
M
P
T
G
T
L
G
S
1
6
4
26
1
1
4
25
43
6401202
1
1
1
6
4
26
1
1
4
25
43
932
1
1
8
11 to 20
184195
3
some
people
8
11
184
3
3
63 houses
210 houses
53,00030,2171
2000
~190 houses
1200
23
4000
9
Kalapana
subdivision
350?
1200
38004000
2000
1200
1000012395 +
~250 on aircraft
967193 >1.3
million + ~250
on aircraft
1000
nearby residents
1500
11
11
500
62,000
767910000
7000
5000
sci team
4000
9
1000
350
1200
3800
2000
1200
12,645
967,443
1000
1000
1500
11
11
500
62,000
7679
7000
5000
15
189
1
4000
6
4
9
1000
34
1
1
354
25
1200
3800
2000
1200
13,329
1,021,559
1000
1
1000
3503
11
11
570
63,200
3
7680
7000
5000
15
189
630
53,000
2000
570
1200
1990/4/4
1990/4/18
1990/6/5
1990/6/24
1990/7/19
1990/8/1
1990/10/1
1990/10/13
1990/10/19
1990/11/21
1990/11/25
1991/1/
1991/2/9
1991/4/1
1991/4/2
1991/5/19
1991/6/3
1991/6/14
1991/6/30
1991/6/
1991/7/19
1991/7/27
1991/7/
1991/8/11
1991/8/31
1991/8/13
1991/10/11
1991/10/25
1991/12/14
1991/4 and 5/
1992/1/19
(continued on next page)
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233 209
Tab le 3 ( continued)
Volcano Country Dev Region Dis code Date yyyy
/mm/dd Killed Killed
quant Injured Injured
quant Homeless Homeless
quant Affected
(incl evac) Affected (incl
evac) quant TotAff quan
t
Taal
Sabancaya
Ol Doinyo
Lengai
Dieng
Cerro Negro
Karangetang
Pacaya
Marapi
Copahue
Unzen
Santa Maria
Arenal
Manam
Kilauea
Pinatubo
Pacaya
Galeras
Karangetang
Wurlali
Mayon
Raoul Is.
Guagua
Pichincha
Lascar
Kilaue
Unzen
Krakatau
Unzen
Pinatubo
Arenal
Pinatubo
Stromboli
Semeru
Yasur
Taal
Llaimaa
Philippines
Peru
Tanzania
Indonesia
Nicaragua
Indonesia
Guatemala
Indonesia
Chile
Japan
Guatemala
Costa Rica
Papua New
Guinea
USA
Philippines
Guatemala
Colombia
Indonesia
Indonesia
Philippines
Kermadec
Ecuador
Chile
USA
Japan
Indonesia
Japan
Philippines
Costa Rica
Philippines
Italy
Indonesia
Vanuatu
Philippines
Chile
M
M
L
L
L
L
M
L
H
H
M
H
M
H
M
M
M
L
L
M
H
M
H
H
H
L
H
M
H
M
H
L
M
M
H
Southeast Asia
South America
East Africa
Southeast Asia
Central America
Southeast Asia
Central America
Southeast Asia
South America
East Asia
Central America
Central America
Oceania
North America
Southeast Asia
Central America
South America
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Oceania
South America
South America
North America
East Asia
Southeast Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Central America
Southeast Asia
European Union
Southeast Asia
Oceania
Southeast Asia
South America
S
T
L
G
I/T
P
T
T
G
D
M
D/I
L
I
M
T
T
M
I(1)/D
P
S
T
P
L(1)/T
(injuries)
N
T
P(1)/D
(evacs)
N
P/I
M
T
P
T
S
M
1
2
6
1
2680
9
2?
1
> 7079
2
1
1
1
4
14
6 to 7
2
1
2
6
1
26
9
2
1
75
2
1
1
1
4
14
6
2
1
2
5075
1
5
2
3
6 to 7
8
12
9 to > 100
22
5
1
2
1
1
1
2
50
1
5
2
3
6
8
12
100
22
5
1
2
1
1
> 30 houses
200 houses
2943 houses
15,700/3281
houses
2 houses
15782600
several towns
6000300,000
several villages
< 300
200
500 <6000
787,042803,971
2 villages
452
30004000
57,000+
4
70
70,000
4930
area residents
2752000
100's to 1000's
10 and 22
families/>50
2600
30,000
9000
3000
3
200
500
787,042
2000
452
4000
57,000
4
70
70,000
4930
1000
2000
1000
120
2600
30,000
1
3
9052
157
3000
6
3
600
200
2
645
3
802,774
2000
17
454
4013
57,175
4
2
70
23
70,000
6
4931
1004
1
14
2
2007
3
1000
120
150
150
600
145
15,700
10
1992/2/15
1992/2/19
1992/2/26
1992/3/18
1992/4/10
1992/5/11
1992/5/
1992/7/5
1992/8/2
1992/8/8
1992/8/
1992/9/
1992/10/15
1992/11/22
1992/by
end 8/
1993/1/10
1993/1/14
1993/1/21
1993/1/21
1993/2/2
1993/3/9
1993/3/12
1993/4/19
1993/4/19
1993/4/28
1993/6/13
1993/6/23
1993/6/26
1993/8/29
1993/10/4
1993/10/16
1994/2/3
1994/2/
1994/3/11
1994/5/17
C.S. Witham / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 148 (2005) 191–233210
Aso
Huila
Aso
Colima
Rabaul
Pacaya
Rinjani
Merapi
Popocatepetl
Yakedake
Yasur
Galeras
Fogo
Pacaya
Kelimutu
Pacaya
Soufrière Hills
Pinatubo
Parker
Ruapehu