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A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change, 18, 397-411
Abstract
In 1972, the Club of Rome's infamous report “The Limits to Growth” [Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., Behrens_III, W. W. (1972). The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. Universe Books, New York] presented some challenging scenarios for global sustainability, based on a system dynamics computer model to simulate the interactions of five global economic subsystems, namely: population, food production, industrial production, pollution, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. Contrary to popular belief, The Limits to Growth scenarios by the team of analysts from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology did not predict world collapse by the end of the 20th century. This paper focuses on a comparison of recently collated historical data for 1970–2000 with scenarios presented in the Limits to Growth. The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compare favorably with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the “standard run” scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st century. The data do not compare well with other scenarios involving comprehensive use of technology or stabilizing behaviour and policies. The results indicate the particular importance of understanding and controlling global pollution.
... The top twenty-first century competences of communication skills and interpersonal skills were excluded from the survey because retrospective rating of these two competences would have been too unreliable. Finally, the competence of environmental sustainability knowledge was added to the rating list because it had been so prevalent in the literature on twenty-first century life (EEA, 2015;Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008;WWF, 2016 Competences were sometimes rated individually but were often split into between two and five sub-competences that were easier for respondents to identify. For example, the competence of collaboration was divided into the sub-competences of idea &/or resource sharing in a student group or student partnership, role/responsibility taking in a student group or student partnership, and co-design &/or co-decision making amongst students. ...
... We recommend that environmental sustainability knowledge be recognised as an important twenty-first century competence in the literature. The twenty-first century life authors refer to it repeatedly (Davidson, 2005;Meadows et al., 1972;Randers, 2012;Turner, 2008) and the majority of participants in this research considered it as a crucial knowledge area. Environmental protection will be crucial across the globe over coming decades (Davidson, 2005;Meadows et al., 1972;Randers, 2012, Turner, 2008 so all twenty-first century students should study it extensively in order to be able to problem solve in this area as they progress into the workforce. ...
... The twenty-first century life authors refer to it repeatedly (Davidson, 2005;Meadows et al., 1972;Randers, 2012;Turner, 2008) and the majority of participants in this research considered it as a crucial knowledge area. Environmental protection will be crucial across the globe over coming decades (Davidson, 2005;Meadows et al., 1972;Randers, 2012, Turner, 2008 so all twenty-first century students should study it extensively in order to be able to problem solve in this area as they progress into the workforce. Environmental sustainability knowledge needs to be listed alongside creativity, problem solving, critical thinking, and all the other top twenty-first century competences. ...
Industrial Design education is poorly understood by laypeople but is present in Australian curricula from primary through to tertiary education levels. Designers and design researchers have long recognised the value of the broad-ranging skills, knowledge fields, and personal qualities design education imparts, but this understanding is generally not shared by the wider community who may see design as surface decoration. This research identifies indicators of value and relevance taken from the twenty-first century competences literature, then measures their presence in four different Industrial Design education settings. Two studies were undertaken. First, Industrial Design educators from primary, secondary, and tertiary levels were surveyed. Then diverse Industrial Design education stakeholders from education and non-education settings were interviewed. The studies gathered both quantitative and qualitative data on the value and relevance of current Industrial Design education in Australia. The result is a comprehensive analysis of the twenty-first century competences present in Australian Industrial Design education, which concludes with recommendations for ways Industrial Design education can benefit twenty-first century learners, as well as ways it should evolve to remain relevant.
... This intensification of collapse research because of climate change has led some to propose that a certain level of ecological and societal collapse over the next few decades will occur (Kenkel, 2020), requiring adaptation and/or mitigations to the challenges and threats posed by global environmental change (Richards et al., 2021). It has also prompted discussions about limits to economic and societal growth (e.g., Meadows, Meadows, Randers, & Behrens, 1972;Turner, 2008;Herrington, 2021), attempts to identify causes of the potential collapse of contemporary global civilization (e.g., Motesharrei et al., 2014), and discussions about possible solutions (e.g., Odum & Odum, 2001;Gowdy, 2020). More pessimistic views include existential repercussions of a possible future collapse (e.g., Scranton, 2015) and dismal portrayals of a possible future society affected by global warming (e.g., Wallace-Wells, 2019;Figueres & Rivett-Carnac, 2020), emphasizing the need to adapt to this kind of future (Bendel & Read, 2021). ...
... Indeed, Homer-Dixon (2006), for example, was more concerned with a differential population growth, the imbalance in population growth in two neighboring regions or countries, creating stress in terms of risks of conflict and political radicalization as a consequence. Other interesting examples related to the population question are Turner's (2008Turner's ( , 2012 updates of LtG with real-time data and conclusion that "[r]egrettably, the alignment of data trends with the LtG dynamics indicates that the early stages of collapse could occur within a decade, or might even be underway" (Turner, 2014, p. 16). Similar conclusions were drawn by the most recent LtG update as well (Herrington, 2021). ...
... The classification, together with the supplemental bibliometric analysis in Appendix 3, shows a demarcation between past collapses (the first three conversations, mostly) and future climate change and societal collapse (mostly in Conversation 4 and particularly in the associated Conversation 5), with some exceptions (e.g., Costanza et al., 2007). Global collapse should be embraced and humanity should prepare for extinction on one side (Scranton, 2015;Turner, 2008;Bologna and Acquino 2020); global society can sustainably transform on the other side (Hayward et al., 2020;Paterson, 2020) Theme The need to transform global society to meet the challenges of ongoing climate change Presents and discusses difficulties of transforming global society, in terms of institutions, politics, and policies A prosperous way down, planetary boundaries, key challenges of transforming the agricultural system, and phasing out fossil fuels (Odum & Odum, 2001;Rockström et al. 2009;Ehrlich & Ehrlich, 2013) Theme Emotional responses to future climate change and possible societal collapse Presents and discusses various emotional responses to the possibility of future climate change and societal collapse Ecopsychology (Baker, 2009;Roszak et al., 1995) Some overlaps between the conversations exists. For example, the tension concerning the perception of a particular past collapse in Conversation 1 may be considered to overlap with the collapse or resilience tension in Conversation 3. Also, how collapse fictions may influence public and social opinion overlaps with the emotional responses to climate change in Conversation 5. ...
Because of concerns that ongoing climate change could lead to a possible collapse of human civilization, the topic of societal (civilization) collapse has emerged as especially relevant, not least for the futures-oriented studies. While this has led to extensive research on societal collapse, there is a lack of consolidation and synthesis of the research. The purpose of this article is thus to systematize the extant research on societal collapse and suggest future research directions. This article offers a systematic multidisciplinary review of the existing literature (361 articles and 73 books) and identifies five scholarly conversations: past collapses, general explanations of collapse, alternatives to collapse, fictional collapses, and future climate change and societal collapse. The review builds the foundation for a critical discussion of each line of inquiry by focusing on theoretical tensions and themes within each scholarly conversation, ending with a discussion of how these conversations inform futures research.
... Second, many of the critics of the LtG had misunderstood the time scale on the bottom, partly as a consequence of the computer technology of the time, which put only the start and ending years (1900 and 2100) but did not put on intermediate years, but also because the authors were not trying to build an explicit predictor. Even so, a series of studies by myself and independently by others have shown that the "predictions" of the LTG model have actually been quite accurate ( Figure 2) [9][10][11][12][13][14]. Despite our inattention, the issues raised in the LtG model, such as growth of global human populations and pollutants, and resource depletion, have been continuing to unroll relentlessly, pretty much as the model suggested. ...
... However, in fact, it is the unrolling of the issues laid out so clearly by the authors of LtG in 1972. At least four recent studies have shown that for the world the LtG model is a pretty good predictor for most parameters, even though it was not designed to be an explicit predictor (Figure 2) [10][11][12][13][14]. In addition, there is a whole suite of environmental issues barely recognized in the original study [51]. ...
The Limits to Growth was a remarkable, and remarkably influential, model, book and concept published 50 years ago this year. Its importance is that it used, for essentially the first time, a quantitative systems approach and a computer model to question the dominant paradigm for most of society: growth. Initially, many events, and especially the oil crisis of the 1970s, seemed to support the idea that the limits were close. Many economists argued quite the opposite, and the later relaxation of the oil crisis (and decline in gasoline prices) seemed to support the economists’ position. Many argued that the model had failed, but a careful examination of model behavior vs. global and many national data sets assessed by a number of researchers suggests that the model’s predictions (even if they had not been meant for such a specific task) were still remarkably accurate to date. While the massive changes predicted by the model have not yet come to pass globally, they are clearly occurring for many individual nations. Additionally, global patterns of climate change, fuel and mineral depletion, environmental degradation and population growth are quite as predicted by the original model. Whether or not the world as a whole continues to follow the general patterns of the model may be mostly a function of what happens with energy and whether humans can accept constraints on their propensity to keep growing.
... In the years that followed, the trend in the consumption of fossil sources confirmed what was predicted in the "Meadows Report" rather well [17]. ...
A significant portion of postwar buildings, typically concentrated in suburban areas, are now difficult assets to manage due to their poor sustainability and limited replacement feasibilities. This paper focuses on strategies to improve their metabolism using energy-saving measures based on optimizing energy needs and integrating internal and external energy sources: a new organizational model for energy management should focus first on saving energy, and then on the possibility of integration into a local energy network. This positively affects the anthropogenic impact and becomes a role model for aggregating buildings not only into a district system, but also into a wider, large-scale energy network. The paper shows a significant case study of actual retrofitting intervention that is examined in order to confirm the theoretical guidelines proposed in the first part of the paper. Moreover, another significant case study, taken from common practice, is illustrated, in which different levels of retrofitting are tested. While taking into account the complexity and fragmentation of private property both in a single building and in the city, some strategies are finally described with the aim of reducing the anthropic impact of the postwar building stock.
... Critics, however, suggested that the model was faulty and made the future look too bleak. Yet, recent research including a "30 year update" largely confirms the predictions of the 1972 model (Meadows et al. 2009;Randers 2012;Turner 2008. ...
The Routledge Handbook of Global Sustainability Governance provides a state-of-the-art review of core debates and contributions that offer a more normative, critical, and transformatively aspirational view on global sustainability governance.
In this landmark text, an international group of acclaimed scholars provides an overview of key analytical and normative perspectives, material and ideational structural barriers to sustainability transformation, and transformative strategies. Drawing on pivotal new and contemporary research, the volume highlights aspects to be considered and blind spots to be avoided when trying to understand and implement global sustainability governance. In this context, the authors of this book debunk many myths about all-too optimistic accounts of progress towards a sustainability transition. Simultaneously, they suggest approaches that have the potential for real sustainability transformation and systemic change, while acknowledging existing hurdles.
... They gave one of their first performances was the commissioning of a report by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) called "The Limits to Growth", published in 1972. It examined five fundamental factors and their interactions that determine growth on this planet -population, agricultural production, non-renewable resource depletion, industrial output and pollution (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008;Purvis et al., 2019). Many authors, including Fukuda-Parr and Muchhala (2020), place this moment as the origin of the term "sustainable development". ...
This descriptive study aims to identify the most published SDGs by @GlobalGoalsUN, the United Nations' official account for sustainable development goals, and elaborate the segmentation profiles of these messages that promote a more significant impact from the perspective of social marketing and happiness. With more than 345 million active users in 2022, Twitter is a relevant social media tool for researching and knowing public reactions. In order to identify the most relevant SDGs, we have downloaded tweets from January 1, 2021, to September 30, 2022. The segmentation profiles have been elaborated with the classification tree using the division method called CHAID (Chi-square automatic interaction detector), which allows the automatic detection of interactions through Chi-square. This technique has made it possible to identify four homogeneous sub-samples corresponding to the segmentation profiles of messages based on impact, social marketing and happiness. The results of these profiles show the categories of the variables that best distinguish the messages. In addition, it has been verified that the most published SDGs do not coincide with those that have achieved the greatest impact. The climate has been the most published SDG (SDG 13 Climate action), but the one that has obtained the most significant reaction from the public has been the SDG related to well-being (SDG 3 Health and well-being). The most popular format has been video, the most recurrent emotional tone has been neutral, and, about social marketing, a category of action messages stands out, unlike behavioural ones, which do not specify the indications to carry out a specific initiative.
... Looking back at the original Limits to Growth study (Meadows et al., 1972), it is obvious how realistic it has been-most of the current trends follow rather closely the 'Double Resources' scenario (Turner, 2008). This scenario assumed significant resource discoveries, but unlike the 'Stabilised World' scenario combining technological progress with an end to economic and population growth, it still ended up in collapse. ...
The perfect storm of converging political, security, environmental and social crises enforces an epochal turn. Necessarily increasing defensive expenditures for health and climate damage compensation combine with climate adaptation and increased security spending to drive already sluggish economic growth rates into negative territory. The result will by accelerating degrowth, an end to just‐in‐time production concepts, higher resource cost, new dependencies on metal exporters (some of them as nasty as Putin's Russia), and decreasing median incomes. Without significant U‐turns on tax and distribution policies, funds will be lacking to address the challenges. Rather than promising easy ways out of the crises, stopping the drivers, focussing on well‐being instead of growth, and exploring ways to a dignified life within the crises need to be political priorities.
... The high-coal conclusion can be traced back to scenario modelling through the 1970s, which assumed coal-to-liquids as a backstop liquid energy supply [107]. Other 'resource pessimists' argue that there is greater uncertainty and significantly lower economically-recoverable resources than often assumed in IAM scenarios [108][109][110][111][112][113]. ...
The following article conducts an analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), specifically in relation to Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). We focus on the key drivers of economic growth, how these are derived and whether IAMs properly reflect the underlying biophysical systems. Since baseline IAM scenarios project a three- to eight-fold increase in gross domestic product (GDP)-per-capita by 2100, but with consumption losses of only between 3–11%, strong mitigation seems compatible with economic growth. However, since long-term productivity and economic growth are uncertain, they are included as exogenous parameters in IAM scenarios. The biophysical economics perspective is that GDP and productivity growth are in fact emergent parameters from the economic-biophysical system. If future energy systems were to possess worse biophysical performance characteristics, we would expect lower productivity and economic growth, and therefore, the price of reaching emission targets may be significantly costlier than projected. Here, we show that IAMs insufficiently describe the energy-economy nexus and propose that those key parameters are integrated as feedbacks with the use of environmentally-extended input-output analysis (EEIOA). Further work is required to build a framework that can supplement and support IAM analysis to improve biophysical rigour.
... Currently, with over 50% of the global population living in cities [21], a number that is expected to rise to 70% in 2050 [22], these impacts deserve attention from urban professionals. Additionally, future problems, such as climate impacts [23,24]; social unrest [25,26] and migration [27][28][29]; increased inequality [30][31][32]; and the limitations of natural resources [33][34][35], i.e., the limits to growth [36][37][38], potentially accelerate the need for urban responses. Thus far, the urban professional, being an urban planner or designer or an urbanist, is confronted with an enormity of subjects, complexities and uncertainties, which makes it a next to impossible task. ...
The context of urbanism is changing rapidly. The context for working in the field of urban design and planning is influenced by the pace of change; uncertainty; and massive transitions. The urban professional, however, is still used to planning for small changes and repeating traditional approaches. In this paper, we have investigated major future tasks and problems that require rethinking the skills required from people working in the urban arena. By conducting in-depth conversation with leading thinkers in the field, the tension between idealism and the urgency to act versus realism and the trust in current systems dominated by economic laws is present. This results in the conclusion that a different skillset is required in order to face future complexities and to be able to connect design creativity with process sensitivity in short- and long-term periods and at small and large scales.
... Indeed, there has been an escalation in challenges of overconsumption of resources prompted by rapidly growing urban populations. Also, there has been more realization that human activities, such as increased energy production from nonrenewable sources, were negatively impacting the environment, hence calling for the need to acknowledge limits to growth and shift to alternative development pathways (Kennedy et al., 2007;Rees & Wackernagel, 2008;Turner, 2008). Three key distinct areas of environmental planning can be distinguished from Fig. 5. ...
The global population has rapidly urbanized over the past century, and the urbanization rate is projected to reach about 70% by 2050. In line with these trends and the increasing recognition of the significance of cities in addressing local and global challenges, a lot of research has been published on urban studies and planning since the middle of the twentieth century. While the number of publications has been rapidly increasing over the past decades, there is still a lack of studies analyzing the field's knowledge structure and its evolution. To fill this gap, this study analyzes data related to more than 100,000 articles indexed under the “Urban Studies” and “Regional & Urban Planning” subject categories of the Web of Science. We conduct various analyses such as term co-occurrence, co-citation, bibliographic coupling, and citation analysis to identify the key defining thematic areas of the field and examine how they have evolved. We also identify key authors, journals, references, and organizations that have contributed more to the field's development. The analysis is conducted over five periods: 1956–1975 (the genesis period), 1976–1995 (economic growth and environmentalism), 1996–2015 (sustainable development and technological innovation), 2016–2019 (climate change and SDGs), and 2020 onwards (post-COVID urbanism). Four major thematic areas are identified: 1) socio-economic issues and inequalities, 2) economic growth and innovation, 3) urban ecology and land use planning, and 4) urban policy and governance and sustainability. The first two are recurring themes over different periods, while the latter two have gained currency over the past 2–3 decades following global events and policy frameworks related to global challenges like sustainability and climate change. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, issues related to smart cities, big data analytics, urban resilience, and governance have received particular attention. We found disproportionate contributions to the field from the Global North. Some countries from the Global South with rapid urbanization rates are underrepresented, which may have implications for the future of urbanization. We conclude the study by highlighting thematic gaps and other critical issues that need to be addressed by urban scholars to accelerate the transition toward sustainable and resilient cities.
... Sustainability is basically perceived as ecology and the ability of ecological systems to maintain their functions, processes and productivity in the future (Chapin et al., 1996). There is now a general consensus that the world's resources and the environment are moving towards the limit of depletion as a result of human activities (Turner, 2008). From this point of view, sustainability can only be achieved by using the resources offered by nature at a speed that allows them to be regenerated spontaneously. ...
Using natural resources without depleting the environment and leaving a livable world to future generations are among the basic principles of sustainability. Building materials are environmentally friendly in their production, use and recycling, if they do not cause irreparable harm to the environment. Environmentally friendly building materials are expected to be durable, reusable and renewable. For this reason, it has gained importance that the elements used in the building can be "disassembled", "reused", and "disposal" without harming the environment when necessary, in order to reduce waste. The "detachability" of buildings is becoming more and more important. The transport factor plays a major role in ensuring the reuse of the missing elements and additions or reductions that must be made in the buildings over time. "Lightness" and "easy transportation" gain importance due to the restrictions to be made in energy use. Elements whose raw material is wood can be reused at the end of their life, destroyed by biological means, and used as energy or raw material. The production of wooden structures is fast, the light parts can be easily stored and transported. The quality of laminated wood produced by applying lamination technique is far superior to solid wood material. Its carrier properties and mechanical resistance also differ depending on the tree species. It is possible to produce wooden boards in a wide variety of lengths and sections in lamination. Structural wooden elements in many different forms such as columns, trusses, arches can be produced by special lamination method upon request. As a result; The developments in laminated wood technology allow the design of unique spaces. All geometric structures such as geodesic domes, pyramids, vaults, etc. can be built in large and single-span structures such as concert halls, educational buildings and product display/sales buildings.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
Contemporary philanthropy relies on a gift/counter-gift process: a person making a donation receives benefits for it, mostly financial (tax deductions) or symbolic (recognition). Donor recognition is an important part of philanthropy and comes in many forms. One of them is donor plaques—on walls, signs, or objects/buildings—associated with naming, i.e., the material traces of recognition that have the name of the donor on them. The analysis of donor plaques deepens our understanding of the way the act of giving leaves traces. What are these traces of philanthropy? How long do donor plaques stay on the walls of institutions? How are they negotiated? How do they change the urban landscape at a bigger scale? This chapter aims at understanding the specificity and the symbolic role of donor plaques as traces left voluntarily by philanthropic donors. Focusing on an understudied topic (philanthropic traces) and based on two qualitative research conducted in philanthropic settings, it questions the relationship elite donors have with time and space through the analysis of a concrete object (the plaque). It also examines the meaning of these traces (and the values they convey), as well as the power relations (and resistances) they create.
... The authors agreed with the critics and after 30 years they applied an improved method, yet obtained similar results (Meadows, Randers, and Meadows 2004) . However, the new publication did not raise a similar controversy or discussion, similar to other comments on that subject (Turner 2008) . Once the Report is mentioned, it is worth noting the "zero growth" concept as a reply to the ominous exhaustion of natural deposits claimed by Mishan (1977), a British citizen . ...
The issue of the exhaustibility and limited of natural resources has been noticed, among others, as a result of intensive economic development and civilization progress. In the second half of the 20th the emission of industrial and municipal pollutants, mainly as a result of burning fossil fuels, also became a serious problem. The article presents the essence and manifestations of the economy in a closed circuit and its impact on shaping sustainable socio-economic development, as well as the analysis of the possibilities of implementing these principles in business practice and in everyday life. According to the authors, managing in a closed circulation appears to be the highest stage of civilization development. Closing the so-called the loop and the economic cycle is becoming real in many areas as a result of extending the life cycle of products, the use of an ever-wider range of waste as secondary raw materials — instead of primary raw materials, the use of renewable energy sources, rationalization of water and forest management, etc.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
The growing masses of digital traces generated by the datafication process make the algorithms that manage them increasingly central to contemporary society.
There is widespread agreement in considering traces and algorithms as complex objects that intertwine social and material practices with their own cultural, historical, and institutional nature (Halford et al., 2010).
Accordingly, given this strong intertwining between the social world and the digital world that is formed by material and technological objects, it becomes possible to consider the algorithms and traces as socio-digital objects. For this reason, this article aims to identify the features that allow us to frame them as socio-digital objects starting from concepts borrowed from the actor-network theory (Latour and Woolgar 1879). In particular, we will first discuss opacity, authority and autonomy concepts and then see how those features emerge in digital geographical traces.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
Visits to museums in the twenty-first century do not merely involve coming in contact with art but also living an interactive and relational experience that has changed the organization of museums, not only the exhibition rooms but also other museum spaces: boutiques, cafés, restaurants, and public areas. This new type of visit implies the role of an original agent: the frontalier visitor who, by inhabiting spaces adjacent to exhibition rooms, expands and reinforces the museum’s boundaries and the museum experience itself. This work is focused on visitors’ footprints as material and virtual marks and aims at showing the results of a field analysis carried out from 2017 to 2019 addressing the architecture of modern art museums. Fourteen museums have been analyzed, and four of them have been selected as the main objects of analysis: Malba, Moma, Tate Modern, and Centre Pompidou. We have studied their façades, esplanades, and entrance halls as spaces advancing what the public will experience inside the buildings. This analysis considers these adjacent spaces essential for the pass-through from the material experience to the virtual experience and from material footprints to virtual ones.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
In this chapter, I reflect on the relationship between shame and digital traces in cases of image-based sexual abuse (IBSA) (I am thankful to Giovanni Zampieri, Dario Lucchesi and Massimo Cerulo for their invaluable help in writing and revising this chapter.). I will introduce the concept of shameful trace to describe records of diverse nature that can be used by a group of people participating in an effort to stigmatise an appearance, a conduct, an attitude or any other cause of social disapproval. Such a record is an object of shame only in a latent form. For it to become a shameful trace, it is necessary that it be shared and focussed on particular situations of moral condemnation.
This is neither a purely theoretical nor a purely empirical article. Rather, I first consider a case study of moral violence against a young Italian woman, Tiziana Cantone, who committed suicide in 2016 after the widespread non-consensual dissemination of intimate images. Further, I propose a theoretical understanding of the diffusion of shameful traces as a process of concerted social action including five elements: first, the ontology of the trace; second, the actors involved in its production and diffusion; third, the temporal and spatial coordinates of the shame diffusion and the technical or social means employed in it; and finally (fourth and fifth), the cultural and normative frameworks. Finally, I investigate how social bonds and sociotechnical and normative regulations favour the diffusion of shame in cases of IBSA.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
This chapter explores the traces that we voluntarily leave behind on social media platforms, dictated by the selection of what we want to show and what we want to hide and how this affects the perception of ourselves.
Nowadays, digital platforms have a huge impact on our lives, in re-shaping both our habits and our personal attitudes. Particularly on social media, both tangible and intangible aspects of our lives can be datafied , which in turn affect and shape our feelings and experiences.
In order to explore this dynamic, I interviewed a selected target group of young media professionals who are used to promoting themselves and their work on social media, through the so-called practice of self-branding .
From the qualitative analysis of 20 in-depth interviews, this chapter investigates traces derived from implicit self-branding practices , which can take the form of controlling what is not to be shared, measuring the online reactions, and hiding relevant information. All these non-activities are also strategic in building and managing the users’ online branded personas.
Thus, through the management of the visible and invisible traces on social media profiles, users convey a branded and polished version of themselves.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
Why do users generally pay little attention to the serious threats to their privacy inherent in new communication technologies? In attempting to answer this question, I consider two different and complementary approaches to the issue of surveillance: the now classic view of Bauman and the more recent, but already well-known, view of Zuboff. I show how Bauman focuses mainly on subjective factors, represented by the psychic motivations of the user, and assigns little importance to technology, whereas technology as an objective factor plays a fundamental role in Zuboff’s analysis of surveillance capitalism.
Hence, I propose to broaden the theoretical framework in order to better capture the intertwining of subjective and objective factors, particularly by taking into account studies on the new philanthropy. On closer inspection, the fact that the new economy tycoons are also often committed to ostentatiously doing good for the less fortunate could explain users’ overconfidence. Since ordinary people see the alleged generosity of the owners of Microsoft, Amazon, or Facebook widely publicized, it is reasonable for them to assume that these “modern-day heroes” are offering their services free of charge to all and sundry for the common good.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
In the United States, gentrification typically involves whites displacing African American, working-class communities. This work uses a political economy framework to better understand the clues displacement leaves behind. Specifically, this research investigates what happened to a former community in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, known as Silver Hill, which was an enclave of mostly African American residents founded in the late nineteenth century just west of the city. Through archival research and investigation of the remaining traces of the neighborhood, we develop a theory of spatial erasure that highlights how wealthy white communities that grew up around Silver Hill subsumed and eradicated it. Specifically, racial capitalism played a major role in the abuse and neglect of Silver Hill. The neighborhood became surrounded by wealthy white developments which cut off road access to their homes. Today, a cemetery, two houses, and a litany of historical records offer clues about what was once a thriving African American community. Additionally, descendants of the neighborhood’s residents provide key information about its life and death. We discuss the implications of examining this history, especially as it pertains to the collective remembrance of Silver Hill.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
This chapter deals with the analysis of Julian Assange as a public figure through the use of three perspective angles. In the first part, Assange’ history is briefly outlined, tracing it back to the systems of thought of authors such as Norbert Elias and Pierre Bourdieu, with the aim of highlighting how the Australian journalist’s biography helps to illuminate his (and our) historical time and, vice versa, how historical time helps to depict his biography and his courageous journalistic campaigns more precisely. The second part shows how the apparently subversive aspects of Assange’s activity in fact need to be analysed within the web of social control and the subsequent fight between rulers and outsiders. The criminalisation of Julian Assange is, by this token, a consequence of the reaction enacted by power against militant practice aimed at claiming an alternative use of the web. The third paragraph examines three basic principles of Enlightenment which are apparent in the WikiLeaks approach and explicitly recalled by Assange: the connection between the duty to improve knowledge and the right to communicate, publicity as a test to reveal injustice and the understanding of freedom of the press as an antitotalitarian device.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
Understanding social practices as they co-evolve between researcher-community is fundamental in “design and social innovation” where local knowledge, resources, and agency meet to solve wicked problems (Rittel and Webber, Policy Sciences, 4, 155–169, 1973). In this chapter, we seek to explore the traces that researchers and community members leave behind as indexical forms of representation. Contemporary perspectives urge a critical examination of the interplay between design and broader structural and cultural issues (Björgvinsson et al., CoDesign, 8(2–3), 127–144, 2012). Design methods, however, are often chosen arbitrarily reflecting a “toolbox” mentality that potentially misses culturally embedded nuances (Dourish, Implications for design. In Proceedings of the SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (pp. 541–550), 2006). Cultural probes as part of this “toolbox” are often associated with ethnographic methods, yet were never intended to generate data, whereas ethnography goes beyond data gathering to analyze socio-cultural meaning and practices (Boehner et al., How HCI interprets the probes. In CHI Proceedings Designing for Specific Cultures, 2007). We present two case studies to discuss the use of cultural probes in participatory design as enablers of dialogue in open-ended conversations with communities. We draw on reflexive practices and Manzini’s concept of “diffuse design” and “expert design.” Working in communities can thus become a form of “public ethnography,” an effort to understand and analyze social practices from multiple knowledge perspectives as an ongoing process.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
The concept of trace is useful for a semiotic reflection upon what is left behind. Similar to the concepts of index and footprint, traces are traditionally described as already signs, or more precisely as something recognized as a sign (Violi, Riv Ital Filos Linguaggio, 2016, http://www.rifl.unical.it/index.php/rifl/article/view/365 ; Mazzucchelli, Riv Ital Filos Linguaggio, 2015, http://www.rifl.unical.it/index.php/rifl/article/view/312 ). This act of recognition is fundamentally dependent on a community’s work of interpretation, in order to actualize a potential narration lying in the trace, but what if the promised sense is not grasped? Adopting the notion of intentionality (Greimas and Courtés, Sémiotique: dictionnaire raisonné de la théorie du langage. Hachette, Paris, 1979) to include partially unconscious traces within the sphere of semiotic investigation, the article considers the possibility to conceive traces as paradoxical signs standing for nothing, i.e., signs of insignificance (Leone, On insignificance. The loss of meaning in the post-material age. Routledge, 2020). Through the analysis of digital traces and trolling, (in)significance is disputed on the basis of a proposed paradigm, within which even such seemingly accidental traces may possess profound significance within a digital network constructed of distributed subjectivity. One conclusion drawn from the example is that strong normative claims about what may qualify as significant often conceal an ideologically charged agenda. For this reason in particular, a detailed account of digital traces should be the highest priority of semiotics today.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
Physical daily contexts are replete with traces of the past. A statue in a park, the name of a street, or an old advertisement can all remind people of specific historical moments or periods. Often, they recall glorious episodes, but traces of less glorious pasts also persist. Among them, the most self-censored ones refer to past immoral actions that tarnish the overly idealized moral standard attributed to the group. As a case in point, material traces of the colonial past became the focus of controversies within formerly colonizing countries during the last decade. European anti-racist movements questioned the colonial heritage of European societies in an unprecedented manner and active social minorities also brought to the fore some traces still in the background of physical environments. Part of public opinion reacted by denouncing the “cancel culture” or the danger of “erasing” history. This chapter outlines a social psychological approach about contemporary perceptions and interpretations of still self-censored material traces of Italian colonialism. Results of a qualitative survey on Italian participants’ representations and attitudes toward a candy with a colonial wrapping will illustrate how Italian participants of different generations question this ephemeral trace and take on the challenge of a cumbersome past.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
This introduction chapter provides context and background to the concept of trace in social sciences, also presenting an overview of key concepts discussed in the subsequent chapters of this volume. Information that was not meant to be informative and evidence that did not expect to possess evidential character, traces are construed as evidence only from the vantage point of the observer, inadvertently left behind by those who produced the trace in the first place (indeed, awareness might change footprints and make them fade out). Conceived as clues rather than statements, traces prove to be useful for studying current social facts and individuals who have not yet vanished. This holds to be true especially in our contemporary platform society, due to its datafication processes and the ensuing quantification of features never quantified before; digital footprints determine the selection of the most relevant content or services to offer, creating accordingly personalized feedback. Thus, individual and collective online behavior leading to traces production is shaped by digital environments’ affordances and constraints; at the same time, such socio-technically situated traces retroact over digital systems (by fueling algorithms and predictive models), thus reinforcing, or questioning, the power relations at stake. Conclusively, a brief remark is made on future research possibilities associated with the sociology of traces.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
Individuals and groups leave evidence of their lives when they are engaged in their activities. In this way, they create a rich amount of material that tells us about their behaviours, opinions and values. This material is not created for research purposes and is different from that solicited by researchers. In recent decades, the spread of new communication technologies has amplified the possibility of creating and disseminating this kind of data outside the research context.
In this chapter, what people leave behind (WPLB) online is studied from a strictly methodological point of view. What kind of evidence are researchers dealing with? Is it possible to reconnect it with the traditional methodological framework? We suggest that data left behind by people and groups on the Internet should be divided into three different categories: online found data ( digital traces ), online retrieved data ( web-mediated documents ) and online captured data ( online behaviours ). The phase of contextualization proves essential in understanding the very nature of (online) data.
This work leads to rediscovering the potential of classical methodological tools such as simple observation, documentary analysis and trace analysis. These practices provide methodological value to research projects that analyse WPLB in physical and web-mediated environments.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
From the study of semiotic paradigms in relation to the face, we focus on the traces, understanding how some flourish from the tangible but ignored signs left by humans daily, while others are totally imbricated in the face from/in which they transpire.
We typologize them in three varieties, from their multidimensional configuration, offering case studies of emanation, imbrication, and cancellation. First, between art and forensic tendencies, Dewey-Hagborg uses hair, cigarettes, and chewing gum off the streets to program and build 3D faces through the DNA found in them. Secondly, we examine the artistic work of Jorit who engraves on his face the sign that symbolizes belonging to a tribe he is working with. Name-face isomorphism emerges in the third case: Janez Janša carries out a performative sociopolitical program to test, destabilize, and reorganize cultural complexity.
All offer a syncretic situation analyzable by means of the semiotic approach and bioanthropological resources. The divergent weights of similar elements make us reflect on the relationship between the innermost meanings of our faces and their tracks in a sort of anticlockwise movement but also on the convergence between macro-cultural and techno-political orientations with intimate and located magnitude.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
In the digital era, there is an increasing number of areas where the footprints we leave behind (voluntarily or not) become relevant for the use (legitimate or not) that can be made of them, creating new broad scenarios of analysis in different fields of interest. These developments have affected a wide range of scientific fields, and social sciences have also been called upon to face major challenges from an epistemological, theoretical and methodological standpoint. In this regard, the use of research tools, such as social network analysis and sentiment analysis , poses many questions to the researcher regarding their robustness, also in comparison to traditional research methods and techniques, i.e. the two-step flow communication model . This paper will propose a theoretical and methodological comparison between the Katz-Lazarsdeldian tradition of the notion of personal influence and the one of influencer logic that is central in digital methods . Starting from this evaluation, the question is whether what is happening in the field of the analysis of the big data provided by the spread of the digital footprint is capable of adding some new element to what has already been highlighted by the “two-step communication theory”, or whether it simply represents its explication.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
The right to be forgotten (RTBF) is meant to provide individuals with an actual representation of their personal identity by obtaining the erasure of their past “digital traces” left online. In 2014, the CJEU’s leading case Google Spain accorded the data subject the right to obtain the de-referencing of personal information related to past events from search engines. Consequently, the RTBF has been included in the title of Article 17 GDPR as a synonym of the right to erasure, without however being explicitly explained or regulated. Alongside this process, the ECtHR has constantly highlighted the need for fair balancing between the right to respect for private life and the right to freedom of expression, often denying the applicants the right to obtain removal or anonymization of news reports published in the past because of their permanent public interest. By stressing that Internet archives constitute an important source for education and historical research, it admitted, though, that the obligations of search engines may differ from those of the original publishers of the information. This reasoning, however, does not seem to have influenced a recent decision of the Italian Corte di Cassazione , commented in the final part of this chapter.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
Starting from the commonly used meaning of a “human” footprint, connected to the traces that every action, product or process leaves in the atmosphere as greenhouse gases, the paper explores new perspectives for a changing social theory considering the principles of sustainability. This theoretical hypothesis stands on the necessity of a revision of the sociological principles to observe and analyse the contemporary phenomena connected to economic, political and social transformations due to environmental problems. The focus is on human action and its new role in the changing social space, time and relations. The application of these revised notions to a concrete process, such as the assessment of policies and social participation in Italian National Parks, according to the “positive thinking” model, will add some evidence about the radical transformation of cognitive paths and social dynamics.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
The expanding use of algorithms in society has called for the emergence of “critical algorithm studies” across several fields, ranging from media studies to geography and from sociology to the humanities. In the past 5 years, a consistent literature on the subject has developed. Inspired by these studies, we explored the ways digital traces may be employed for auditing algorithms and find evidence about algorithmic functioning. We focus on the analysis of digital traces through search engines and Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). We present four cases of how digital traces may be used for auditing algorithms and testing their quality in terms of data, model, and outcomes. The first example is taken from Noble’s (2018) book Algorithms of Oppression . The other three examples are very recent, two of them related to COVID-19 pandemic and about the most controversial type of algorithms: image recognition. Search as research and the analysis of digital traces and footprints within quasi-experimental research designs are useful methods for testing the quality of data, the codes, and the outcomes of algorithms.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
In this chapter, we focus on how virtual communities (VCs) leave “traces” or “unintentional information” and study how they can affect VCs and their features. In doing so, we use qualitative data from a doctoral research project developed between Italy and Belgium. Firstly, in this introduction, we briefly describe how “traces” are considered. Secondly, we unpack the concepts “VC” and “sense of community.” Thirdly, we explore the context in which VCs take place Theoretically. Fourthly, we explain the methodology used and the case selection procedure. Then, we describe our results, and finally, the chapter ends with a discussion and a conclusion. We consider the notion “traces” in Bloch’s terms (1992: 51) and use the interpretation given by Ricoeur; traces are “documents in archives (which) for the most part come from witnesses in spite of themselves” (2009: 171); “The trace is thus the higher concept under whose aegis Bloch places testimony. It constitutes the operator par excellence of ‘indirect’ knowledge” (170). Information disseminated by social media users, considered as unconscious “tracks,” can be used by others in different ways than the original intent, thus acquiring a different meaning. In this chapter, our first research question polls for the features of information that are left unintentionally by the users of virtual communities (RQ1). Our second research question focuses on the role that such unintentional information has in virtual communities (RQ2) or, in other words, on how users of VCs appropriate and apply these traces in different ways than originally intended.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
This chapter continues the recent debate on the epistemological dimension of traces and tracing. Following our own preliminary work and in confrontation with an explicitly non-Western epistemology—namely, the case of “First Australians”—the chapter proposes the perspective of interpretive tracing. It calls for the systematic reflection of practices and underlying epistemologies of traces as objects of interpretation in a cross-cultural, i.e., cosmopolitan, perspective. It is a perspective that is sensitive to the tacit assumptions of objectivity and linear inferencing that underlie many Western approaches. Further, it is an open perspective that is sensitive to various embedded notions of time and temporality (not just time as a linear approach to the world) in particular. Furthermore, this perspective we advocate can eventually show that trace and tracing entail different social, cultural, and societal notions of social binding.
... The shift away from a previous model of development, the modern one, can be recognised by the elements described so far, relating to the increasingly intrinsic limitation of human actions and their changed spatial, temporal and relational conditions (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). To have clear evidence of this, it is sufficient to refer to the definition of development coined as early as 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development set up by the United Nations and chaired by the Norwegian politician Gro Harlem Brundtland, which stressed that "development is sustainable when it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (United Nations, 1987). ...
This open access book focuses on a particular but significant topic in the social sciences: the concepts of “footprint” and “trace”. It associates these concepts with hotly debated topics such as surveillance capitalism and knowledge society. The editors and authors discuss the concept footprints and traces as unintended by-products of other (differently focused and oriented) actions that remain empirically imprinted in virtual and real spaces. The volume therefore opens new scenarios for social theory and applied social research in asking what the stakes, risks and potential of this approach are. It systematically raises and addresses these questions within a consistent framework, bringing together a heterogeneous group of international social scientists. Given the multifaceted objectives involved in exploring footprints and traces, the volume discusses heuristic aspects and ethical dimensions, scientific analyses and political considerations, empirical perspectives and theoretical foundations. At the same time, it brings together perspectives from cultural analysis and social theory, communication and Internet studies, big-data informed research and computational social science.
This innovative volume is of interest to a broad interdisciplinary readership: sociologists, communication researchers, Internet scholars, anthropologists, cognitive and behavioral scientists, historians, and epistemologists, among others.
... The information generated by the stock and flow computer simulations for both the renewable and the non-renewable resource cases in this paper are both driven by the underlying business growth goals in the system. The profound idea that there are limits to growth and that mankind is still on course to overshooting our ecological footprint has been empirically validated (Meadows et al., 1972;Meadows et al., 2004;Turner, 2008). Changing our current trajectory and living in a stable balance with our natural world requires a change in thinking or mental models. ...
In this paper we define the nature of the climate change problem and we analyze the task of getting human society to act quickly enough and appropriately to solve this global crisis. We show how our current citizen mental models keep us locked into fossil fuels and prevent us from acting. We demonstrate how simple system dynamics models provide the necessary insight, expand the boundaries of our mental models, and give us the understanding to redesign how our business and governing systems work. We suggest transforming business education using these insights as the key to appropriate climate change action and setting us on the road to a prosperous and sustainable future.
... /frsus. . of development (Turner, 2008(Turner, , 2012Meadows and Randers, 2012;Herrington, 2020). Despite serving as a poor proxy for human well-being, economic growth is nevertheless considered a panacea for multiple social and ecological problems, as reflected in the "green growth" framing of the SDGs (Hickel, 2019). ...
Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) aims to achieve “energy for all” by improving energy security for the world's poor while supporting a global transition toward low-carbon energy sources. The aim of this policy brief is to evaluate and propose energy sufficiency as a feasible policy response to negative interactions of SDG 7, for climate (SDG 13), the biophysical environment (SDG 14 and 15), and social equity (SDG 10), when linked to the pursuit of unending economic growth (SDG 8). Recommendations for SDG 7 target economy-wide absolute and per capita limits in overall energy use to precede adjustments in technology and behavior, thus shifting from energy excess for some to energy sufficiency for all.
... Sustainability is a complex, dynamic and multidimensional concept. Since 1987 and the definition of sustainable development by the Brundtland Report (World Commission on Environment and Development 1987), there has been a variety of interpretations and approaches from various disciplines with different assumptions about the interconnection of environment, society and the economy (Elliot 1994(Elliot , 2011Howarth 1997), for instance, sustainability of natural resources and economic growth (Klaassen and Opschoor 1991;Meadows, Meadows et al. 2004;Turner 2008;Kandachar 2014), notions of intergenerational fairness (Woodward 2000;Hunt and Fund 2016), ecological equilibrium and resilience (Donohue et al. 2016;Kéfi et al. 2019) and ecosystems and economic development (McMichael et al. 2003;Barbier 2012;Harris 2013). ...
The electrification transition will intensify the demand for lithium. The endowment in the Lithium Triangle is significant, and the expectations for the global supply are high in terms of resources and sustainability. In this paper, we investigate the impact of environmental, social and governance (ESG) challenges to the future of sustainable lithium extraction. We undertook a qualitative analysis to prioritise the risks associated with these challenges and discussed their interlinkages. We argue that a sustainable perspective for lithium extraction in the region requires continuous and informed dialogue among government, industry and community stakeholders and participatory processes that reduce the asymmetries of power and knowledge. We provide a list of urgent mitigation actions that could assist the move towards sustainability. These include the following. First is expanding our understandings of the water cycle of lithium brines in this region. This should be underpinned by baseline data and ongoing monitoring at the watershed scale, capacity building to strengthen institutions, improved regulations and data infrastructures to promote data transparency and accessibility. Second is integrating biodiversity impacts within existing mining practices and procedures (e.g. Environmental Impact Assessments — EIA). We propose the strategic implementation of the mitigation hierarchy and IFC’s Performance Standards to avoid, reduce and offset the risks of lithium extraction on ecosystem services and critically important biodiversity impacts. Third is strengthening social participatory processes that enable the local communities to become actors in decision-making and the ongoing management and monitoring of lithium projects. Fourth is establishing a framework to support a Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment (SESA) process specific to lithium with a regional approach in the Lithium Triangle.
... (Meadows vd., 1972) Araştırmacılar tarafından hazırlanan üç senaryonun ikisinde 21. Yüzyılın ortalarına kadar küresel sistemin "hedeflerin aşılması ve çökmesi" sonuçlarıyla karşı karşıya kalacağı öngörüsü vardır (Turner, 2008). ...
Turkish abstract: Bu çalışmada Kuznets tarafından ortaya konulan ve ekonomik gelişmenin farklı aşamalarında gelir eşitsizliğinin çizdiği grafiği anlatan Kuznets eğrisine olan benzerliğinden dolayı Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (ÇKE-EKC) adı verilen ve çevresel kirlenme ile ekonomik büyüme arasında ters-U şeklinde bir ilişki bulunduğunu ortaya koyan hipotez test edilmiştir. Yapılan çalışma kapsamında Karbondioksit emisyon hacmini (CO2) etkileyen değişkenler kullanılarak bir ekonometrik model ortaya konulmuştur. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmek için VAR modeli çerçevesinde; Johansen koentegrasyon testi, etki-tepki analizi ve varyans ayrıştırması kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizlerde değişkenlerin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettikleri ve CO2 bağımlı değişkenine etki eden bağımsız değişkenleri ortaya koyan modelin geçerli olduğu görülmüştür. Yapılan değerlendirme sonucunda Türkiye örneğinde çevresel kirlenme ile ekonomik büyüme arasında ters-U şeklinde bir ilişki olabileceği, fakat bu ilişkinin Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınma sürecinin tam olarak oluşumunu tamamlamamış olması dolayısıyla zaman içerisinde daha belirgin şekilde ortaya çıkacağı düşünülmektedir.
English abstract: In this study, the hypothesis, which is called Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and which reveals that there is an inverseU relation between environmental pollution and economic growth, was tested due to its similarity to Kuznets curve, which was presented by Kuznets and describes the graph of income inequality at different stages of economic development. Within the scope of the study, an econometric model was put forward by using the variables affecting the carbon dioxide emission volume (CO2). Within the framework of the VAR model to analyze the relationship between the variables; Johansen cointegration test, impulse-response analysis and variance decomposition was used. In the analyzes made, it has been seen that the variables act together in the long term and the model that reveals the independent variables that affect the CO2 dependent variable is valid. As a result of the evaluation, it is thought that there may be an inverted-U-shaped relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth in the case of Turkey, but this relationship will emerge more clearly in time, since Turkey's economic growth and development process has not been fully formed.
The Anthropocene is the present time of human-caused accelerating global change, and new forms of Anthropocene risk are emerging that society has hitherto never experienced. Science and policy are grappling with the temporal and spatial magnitude of these changes, as well as the diminishing margin between science and policy itself. However, there is a gap in the transparency — and perhaps even in the awareness — of the profound role that Anthropocene science plays in shaping the structure and possibility of our future world. In this work, we explore three broad categories of Anthropocene science, including international energy scenarios, climate change projections, and the possibility of social collapse. These cases exemplify three key features of Anthropocene science: worlding capacity, values shaping what is possible, and refusal to consider all options. We discuss how Anthropocene science modulates new risks and systematically, though perhaps inadvertently, entrains certain social-ecological futures. We find that clarity in these three attributes of Anthropocene science could enhance its integrity and build trust, not least in the arena of public policy. We conclude with recommendations for improving the interpretability and scope of Anthropocene science in the context of a growing urgency for accurate information to inform our collective future.
In 2020, Christiaan De Beukelaer spent 150 days covering 14,000 nautical miles aboard the schooner Avontuur, a hundred-year-old sailing vessel that transports cargo across the Atlantic Ocean. Embarking in Santa Cruz de Tenerife, he wanted to understand the realities of a little-known alternative to the shipping industry on which our global economy relies, and which contributes more carbon emissions than aviation. What started as a three-week stint of fieldwork aboard the ship turned into a five-month journey, as the COVID-19 pandemic forced all borders shut while crossing the ocean, preventing the crew from stepping ashore for months on end.
Trade winds engagingly recounts De Beukelaer's life-changing personal odyssey and the complex journey the shipping industry is on to cut its carbon emissions. The Avontuur's mission remains crucial as ever: the shipping industry urgently needs to stop using fossil fuels, starting today. If we can't swiftly decarbonise shipping, we can't solve the climate crisis.
Despite many advances in food sanitation techniques, foodborne diseases remain as one of the
major causes of death worldwide. Traditional antimicrobial methods not only reduce the
microbial population in foods to a varying extent, but damage the beneficial microorganisms
found naturally in foods. Increasing number of foodborne outbreaks due to the pathogens
resistant to antibiotics also require novel strategies. Although novel food processing
technologies (pulsed electric field, high pressure applications, ultrasound, plasma treatment,
and irradiation) are prominent processes in preventing bacterial contamination and bacteria
multiplication in food, they are extremely costly and time consuming processes. Alternatively,
the use of bacteriophages as biocontrol agents in food safety is attracting attention as a cheap
and fast method. Phages are viruses that infect bacterial cells only and harmless to humans,
animals, and plants. Phages are categorized as lytic or lysogenic based on their life cycles.
Lytic phages have various potential applications as biocontrol agents in the food industry.
Phage products developed for the main pathogenic bacteria that cause foodborne diseases
have been used as antimicrobial agents on foods by obtaining GRAS (Generally Recognized
As Safe) status and FDA approval. Phages have also been proposed as an alternative to
antibiotics in animal health. The use of phages as an alternative method in food industry and
health is today a popular topic that is gaining importance. In this report, it is aimed to provide
an overview of the use of phages as biocontrol agents against foodborne pathogens and to
provide up-to-date information on the common use of phages in food safety.
Keywords: Bacteriophage, phage, pathogens, food safety
A Planetary Tragedy addresses the question of why, some 50 years
after the environment became a topic of public concern, efforts to address
environmental problems have by and large failed and the world appears to
be heading for a disastrous future. Although over these years, governments
have adopted a raft of national and international measures to combat
environmental issues, most of these have proven to be inadequate and the
rate of environmental degradation has continued unabated. The book critically surveys and analyses the environmental performance of countries, in particular, some that have been regarded as environmental leaders, and identifies and discusses three broad reasons for this failure. First, the way environmental problems have been predominantly interpreted, which largely ignores the deep and interconnected nature of the environmental challenge; second, the failure to recognise, let alone address, the systemic sources and causes of environmental problems; third, the power structures in the prevailing political-economic systems, which make it virtually impossible to fundamentally change those systems and to
put societies onto a path towards sustainability.
Covering an extensive literature, the book draws on research, theories,
findings, and ideas from the fields of environmental politics and policy,
including comparative, international, and global analyses and perspectives,
environmental sociology and history, economics and the environment,
political and social theory, and environmental management. It puts forward
a framework that can assist in taking a comprehensive and integrated
approach to the environmental challenge, discusses the strengths and
weaknesses of a range of theoretical perspectives, clarifies key concepts and
factors central to better understanding the systemic issues and obstacles
lying at the heart of the environmental challenge, and puts forward ideas on
how to strategically address the enormous imbalance of power that stands
in the way of transformative change. The main suggestion is the creation of
national-level Sovereign People’s Authorities based on the principle of
popular sovereignty that will enable societies to democratically steer
themselves towards a sustainable and desirable future.
To avoid catastrophic climate change, the world is promoting a fast and unprecedented transition from fuels to renewables. However, the infrastructures of renewables, such as wind turbines and solar cells, rely heavily on critical minerals like rare earths, indium, etc. Such interactions between climate targets, energy transitions, and critical minerals were widely overlooked in the present climate scenario analysis. This study aims to fill this gap through an introduction of metal-energy-climate (MEC) nexus framework with its application on global energy transition towards carbon-neutral (or below 1.5 °C) target, in which six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models (IAMs) under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were applied. Our analysis revealed that climate mitigation is expected to greatly boost the critical mineral demand by 2.6-267.3 fold, which varies greatly by IAM models. The solar power development may be constrained by Tellurium (Te) and Selenium (Se) shortage, while the wind power will be jeopardized by the limited scalability in rare earth production capacity. Moreover, a more sustainable pathway may come at higher demand for critical minerals along with higher renewable ratios. Consequently, a holistic investigation on the interaction of mineral, energy, and climate systems is highly recommended for future scenario designing.
The main objective of this article is to explore new paradigms of teacher training in the field of environmental education. That is why this qualitative study explores the literature on ecological economics and degrowth to identify the most important theoretical principles that can be integrated into environmental education practices. From a transdisciplinary approach, the study integrates a philosophical and epistemological dialogue between scientific knowledge and indigenous wisdom of the Ecuadorian peoples. Then, the results of introducing the ecological economics foundations in the Ecuadorian environmental education policies are described with the analysis of the TiNi program. Subsequently, the emergence of the regenerative economics in the literature is discussed. To conclude, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are questioned for their conventional economic vision, and regenerative cultures are proposed to promote world futures focused in human well-being and environmental justice.
Sustainability is an imperative of the 21st century in order to preserve the environment for the next generations, but sustainable development also requires the introduction and use of new technologies, and the related abilities for their use. The United Nations have adopted the Human Development Index HDI in order to assess human well-being. This index includes a component related to knowledge, the Education Index, which is expressed in terms of the mean schooling years. However, this information does not contain a measure of the student’s ability to solve complex problems or ability to reason, which are fundamental skills for sustainable development. In this study, an improved version of the Education Index was developed by considering the data available from the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). This new index takes into account both the social impact of schooling years and the outcomes of the education systems for each country (PISA scores). As a consequence of this new Education Index, a new Human Development Index, HDI*, is proposed. Two case studies were performed, comparing the European and non-European countries, focusing on government education spending. Moreover, the trends of an energy and an environmental indicator are analyzed in relation to the HDI*.
Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester
carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers
worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted
to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based
ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases
for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns
about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.
Abstract Assessments of global coal, oil, and natural gas occurrences usually focus on conventional hydrocarbon reserves, i.e. those occurrences that can be exploited with current technology and present market conditions. The focus on reserves seriously underestimates long-term global hydrocarbon availability. Greenhouse gas emissions based on these estimates may convey the message that the world is running out of fossil fuels, and as a result, emissions would be reduced automatically. If the vast unconventional hydrocarbon occurrences are included in the resource estimates and historically observed rates of technology change are applied to their mobilization, the potential accessibility of fossil sources increases dramatically with long-term production costs that are not significantly higher than present market prices. Although the geographical hydrocarbon resource distribution varies significantly, a regional breakdown for 11 world regions indicates that neither hydrocarbon resource availability nor costs are likely to become forces that automatically would help wean the global energy system from the use of fossil fuel during the next century.
Sustainable development has been defined by political and corporate leaders as the combination of environmental protection
and economic growth. As a result, the concept of eco-efficiency has been promoted as the primary tool for achieving industrial
sustainability.
However, there are at least four reasons why technological improvements in eco-efficiency alone will be insufficient to bring
about a transition to sustainability. First, considering that the very foundations of western industrial societies are based
on the exploitation of non-renewable minerals and fuels, it will be extremely difficult to switch to an industrial and economic
system based solely on renewable resources. Clearly, the continuing use of non-renewables is inherently unsustainable because
of finite material supplies and the fact that 100% recycling is impossible. Second, given the limited supply of non-renewable
fuels, long-term sustainability can only be guaranteed if all energy is derived directly or indirectly from the sun. However,
if the current U.S. energy demand would have to be supplied solely from solar sources, a wide range of serious and unavoidable
negative environmental impacts are likely to result. Third, even the best of human ingenuity and the greatest technological
optimism are bounded by the second law of thermodynamics, which dictates that all industrial and economic activities have
unavoidable negative environmental consequences. Finally, improvements in eco-efficiency alone will not guarantee a reduction
in the total environmental impact if economic growth is allowed to continue. Unless growth in both population and consumption
is restrained, these technological improvements only delay the onset of negative consequences that, as a result, will have
increased in severity, thereby reducing our freedom to choose satisfying solutions.
Integrated global models (IGMs) attempt to build quantitative understanding of the complex, dynamic history and future of human–environment interactions at the global scale. There is now a 30 year history of this approach. Over this period, computer simulation modeling has become a well-accepted technique in scientific analysis, but truly integrated simulation models — those that deal with the dynamics of both the natural and human components of the system and their interactions — are still relatively rare, and those that do this at the global scale are even rarer. This paper is a survey of past experience with IGMs to serve as the basis for discussion about their role in the IHOPE project. We analyze seven IGMs in some detail, comparing and contrasting their characteristics, performance, and limitations. The integrated global data base that IHOPE will create can greatly spur the development, testing and application of IGMs. At the same time, the development of IGMs can greatly facilitate thinking about what data needs to be collected. IGMs therefore will play a central role in the IHOPE project and deserve careful consideration.
Stabilizing the carbon dioxide–induced component of climate change is an energy problem. Establishment of a course toward
such stabilization will require the development within the coming decades of primary energy sources that do not emit carbon
dioxide to the atmosphere, in addition to efforts to reduce end-use energy demand. Mid-century primary power requirements
that are free of carbon dioxide emissions could be several times what we now derive from fossil fuels (∼1013 watts), even with improvements in energy efficiency. Here we survey possible future energy sources, evaluated for their capability
to supply massive amounts of carbon emission–free energy and for their potential for large-scale commercialization. Possible
candidates for primary energy sources include terrestrial solar and wind energy, solar power satellites, biomass, nuclear
fission, nuclear fusion, fission-fusion hybrids, and fossil fuels from which carbon has been sequestered. Non–primary power
technologies that could contribute to climate stabilization include efficiency improvements, hydrogen production, storage
and transport, superconducting global electric grids, and geoengineering. All of these approaches currently have severe deficiencies
that limit their ability to stabilize global climate. We conclude that a broad range of intensive research and development
is urgently needed to produce technological options that can allow both climate stabilization and economic development.
CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y(-1) for 1990-1999 to >3% y(-1) for 2000-2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the world's population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity.
Sequel to The limits to growth this book presents a renewed and refined version of the 1972 assessment and warnings. Better data, improved modelling and 20 yr of hindsight lead the authors to conclude that many resource and pollution flows are now no longer approaching the limits. Adopting a systems viewpoint and using the World3 model it is shown that mankind has a choice, and must make it soon. The choice is between allowing development to continue as it is and suffer global collapse, or take action to secure a sustainable future. The authors stress a sustainable future is technically and economically feasible, if growth in material consumption and population are eased down and there is a drastic increase in the efficiency of use of materials and energy. Chapters consider: overshoot; exponential growth; the limits (sources and sinks); dynamics of growth in a finite world; back from beyond the limits (the ozone story); technology, markets, and overshoot; transitions to a sustainable system; overshoot but not collapse. -C.J.Barrow
In this paper we discuss verification and validation of simulation models. Four different approaches to deciding model validity are described; two different paradigms that relate verification and validation to the model development process are presented; various validation techniques are defined; conceptual model validity, model verification, operational validity, and data validity are discussed; a way to document results is given; a recommended procedure for model validation is presented; and model accreditation is briefly discussed.
Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book is the first to give a comprehensive description of the causes and impacts of technological change and how they relate to global environmental change. Written for specialists and nonspecialists alike, it will be useful for researchers and professors, as a textbook for graduate students, for people engaged in long-term policy planning in industry (strategic planning departments) and government (R & D and technology ministries, environment ministries), for environmental activists (NGOs), and for the wider public interested in history, technology, or environmental issues.
This paper briefly outlines the basic science on climate change, as well as the IPCC assessments on emissions scenarios and climate impacts, to provide a context for the topic of key vulnerabilities to climate change. A conceptual overview of "dangerous" climate change issues and the roles of scientists and policy makers in this complex scientific and policy arena are suggested, based on literature and recent IPCC work in progress. Literature on assessments of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" with the climate system is summarized, with emphasis on recent probabilistic analyses.
Over the last 25 yr, considerable debate has continued about the future supply of fossil fuel. On one side are those who believe we are rapidly depleting resources and that the resulting shortages will have a profound impact on society. On the other side are those who see no impending crisis because long-term trends are for cheaper prices despite rising production. The concepts of resources and reserves have historically created considerable misunderstanding in the minds of many nongeologists. Hubbert-type predictions of energy production assume that there is a finite supply of energy that is measurable; however, estimates of resources and reserves are inventories of the amounts of a fossil fuel perceived to be available over some future period of time. As those resources/reserves are depleted over time, additional amounts of fossil fuels are inventoried. Throughout most of this century, for example, crude oil reserves in the United States have represented a 10-14-yr supply. For the last 50 yr, resource crude oil estimates have represented about a 60-70-yr supply for the United States. Division of reserve or resource estimates by current or projected annual consumption therefore is circular in reasoning and can lead to highly erroneous conclusions. Production histories of fossil fuels are driven more by demand than by the geologic abundance of the resource. Examination of some energy resources with well-documented histories leads to two conceptual models that relate production to price. The closed-market model assumes that there is only one source of energy available. Although the price initially may fall because of economies of scale long term, prices rise as the energy source is depleted and it becomes progressively more expensive to extract. By contrast, the open-market model assumes that there is a variety of available energy sources and that competition among them leads to long-term stable or falling prices. At the moment, the United States and the world approximate the open-market model, but in the long run the supply of fossil fuel is finite, and prices inevitably will rise unless alternate energy sources substitute for fossil energy supplies; however, there appears little reason to suspect that long-term price trends will rise significantly over the next few decades.
Natural resource consumption has increased considerably in the past 200 years despite more efficient technology advancements. This correlation between increased natural resource consumption and increased efficiency is known as Jevons’ Paradox. Since all the inputs to economic production come from the environment, increased resource consumption and ecosystem destruction should be of concern. Furthermore, the expenditure of natural resources to provide energy and other consumer goods is an irreversible process, worsening the human condition instead of improving human welfare as neoclassical theory would have one to believe. Therefore, sustainable development policies need to be considered to end the continued excess consumption, beyond sustainable levels, of natural resources and the potential resulting conflicts. To design environmentally sustainable policies, the effect of economic activity, of resource utilization, and increased efficiency must be understood. In this paper, we attempt to illustrate how human consumption of natural resources alters the natural state of the economy and the environment. Further, using energy data from the Energy Information Administration we develop models that provide some empirical support that Jevons’ Paradox may exist on a macro level. Finally, we examine the resulting policy implications and the applications for an ecological economic approach.
This article highlights the strength of the basic system dynamics tools (system structure, unquantified variables, the reference mode, and leverage points) by testing the original World2 (1970) and World3 (1972) analyses against 30 years of history. Critical feedback structures in those models are revisited in the context of the current ‘sustainable development’ agenda. Time cannot yet confirm or reject the “;overshoot and collapse” reference mode of behaviour for the standard world-model run, but the tendencies and pressures that produced it still persist. The article closes with the identification of possible leverage points for attaining sustainable development in the expected fields of education, eco-efficiency, and resource management and energy policies, and speculates on possible others that the new millennium may offer. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The world's production of conventional hydrocarbons will soon decline. Hydrocarbon shortages are inevitable unless radical changes occur in demand, or in the supply of non-conventional hydrocarbons. The details are as follows:Global conventional oil supply is currently at political risk. This is because the sum of conventional oil production from all countries in the world, except the five main Middle-East suppliers, is near the maximum set by physical resource limits. Should Middle-East suppliers decide to substantially curtail supply, the shortfall cannot be replaced by conventional oil from other sources.World conventional oil supply will soon be at physical risk. The Middle-East countries have only little spare operational capacity, and this will be increasingly called upon as oil production declines elsewhere. Large investments in Middle-East production, if they occur, could raise output, but only to a limited extent. (A partial exception is Iraq, but even here, there would be significant delays before prospects are confirmed, and infrastructure is in place.) If demand is maintained, and if large investments in Middle-East capacity are not made, the world will face the prospect of oil shortages in the near term.Even with large investments, resource limits will force Middle-East production to decline fairly soon, and hence also global conventional oil production. The date of this resource-limited global peak depends on the size of Middle-East reserves, which are poorly known, and unreliably reported. Best estimates put the physical peak of global conventional oil production between 5 and 10 years from now.The world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil, and various oil substitutes. But the rapidity of the decline in the production of conventional oil makes it probable that these non-conventional sources cannot come on-stream fast enough to fully compensate. The result will be a sustained global oil shortage.For conventional gas, the world's original endowment is probably about the same, in energy terms, as its endowment of conventional oil. Since less gas has been used so far compared to oil, the world will turn increasingly to gas as oil declines. But the global peak in conventional gas production is already in sight, in perhaps 20 years, and hence the global peak of all hydrocarbons (oil plus gas) is likely to be in about 10 or so years.
This paper argues that perceptual distortions and prevailing economic rationality, far from encouraging investment in natural capital, actually accelerate the depletion of natural capital stocks. Moreover, conventional monetary analyses cannot detect the problem. This paper therefore makes the case for direct biophysical measurement of relevant stocks and flows, and uses for this purpose the ecological footprint concept. To develop the argument, the paper elaborates the natural capital concept and asserts the need of investing in natural capital to compensate for net losses. It shows how the ecological footprint can be used as a biophysical measure for such capital, and applies this concept as an analytical tool for examining the barriers to investing in natural capital. It picks four issues from a rough taxonomy of barriers and discusses them from an ecological footprint perspective: it shows why marginal prices cannot reflect ecological necessities; how interregional risk pooling encourages resource liquidation; how present terms of trade undermine both local and global ecological stability; and how efficiency strategies may actually accelerate resource throughput. Affirming the necessity of biophysical approaches for exploring the sustainability implications of basic ecological and thermodynamic principles, it draws lessons for current development.
This paper challenges the view that improving the efficiency of energy use will lead to a reduction in national energy consumption, and hence is an effective policy for reducing national CO2 emissions. It argues that improving energy efficiency lowers the implicit price of energy and hence make its use more affordable, thus leading to greater use—an effect termed the ‘rebound’ or ‘takeback’ effect. The paper presents the views of economists, as well as green critics of ‘the gospel of efficiency’. The paper argues that a more effective CO2 policy is to concentrate on shifting to non-fossil fuels, like renewables, subsidized through a carbon tax. Ultimately what is needed, to limit energy consumption, is energy sufficiency (or conservation) rather than energy efficiency.
Environmental disasters. Terrorist wars. Energy scarcity. Economic failure. Is this the world's inevitable fate, a downward spiral that ultimately spells the collapse of societies? Perhaps, says acclaimed author Thomas Homer-Dixon - or perhaps these crises can actually lead to renewal for ourselves and planet earth. The Upside of Down takes the reader on a mind-stretching tour of societies' management, or mismanagement, of disasters over time. From the demise of ancient Rome to contemporary climate change, this spellbinding book analyzes what happens when multiple crises compound to cause what the author calls "synchronous failure." But, crisis doesn't have to mean total global calamity. Through catagenesis, or creative, bold reform in the wake of breakdown, it is possible to reinvent our future. Drawing on the worlds of archeology, poetry, politics, science, and economics, The Upside of Down is certain to provoke controversy and stir imaginations across the globe. The author's wide-ranging expertise makes his insights and proposals particularly acute, as people of all nations try to grapple with how we can survive tomorrow's inevitable shocks to our global system. There is no guarantee of success, but there are ways to begin thinking about a better world, and The Upside of Down is the ideal place to start thinking.
Propuestas para el diseño de modelos y la medición de la sustentabilidad, planteadas con base en un estudio de caso nacional desarrollado durante cuatro años en Escocia.
Traditional growth theory emphasizes the incentives for capital accumulation rather than technological progress. Innovation is treated as an exogenous process or a by-product of investment in machinery and equipment. Grossman and Helpman develop a unique approach in which innovation is viewed as a deliberate outgrowth of investments in industrial research by forward-looking, profit-seeking agents.
Rapid global economic growth, centred in Asia but now spread across the world, is driving rapid greenhouse-gas emissions growth, making earlier projections unrealistic. This paper develops new, illustrative business-as-usual projections for carbon dioxide (CO) from fossil fuels and other sources and for non-CO greenhouse gases. Making adjustments to 2007 World Energy Outlook projections to reflect more fully recent trends, we project annual emissions by 2030 to be almost double current volumes, 11 per cent higher than in the most pessimistic scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and at a level reached only in 2050 in the business-as-usual scenario used by the Stern Review. This has major implications for the global approach to climate-change mitigation. The required effort is much larger than implicit in the IPCC data informing the current international climate negotiations. Large cuts in developed country emissions will be required, and significant deviations from baselines will be required in developing countries by 2020. It is hard to see how the required cuts could be achieved without all major developing as well as developed countries adopting economy-wide policies.
At present, the most accurate knowledge about climate sensitivity is based on data from the earth's history, and this evidence reveals that small forces, maintained long enough, can cause large climate change. Human-made forces, especially greenhouse gases, soot and other small particles, now exceed natural forces, and the world has begun to warm at a rate predicted by climate models. The stability of the great ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica and the need to preserve global coastlines set a low limit on the global warming that will constitute "dangerous anthropogenic interference" with climate. Halting global warming requires urgent, unprecedented international cooperation, but the needed actions are feasible and have additional benefits for human health, agriculture and the environment.
Increasing energy use, climate change, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels make switching to low-carbon fuels a high priority. Biofuels are a potential low-carbon energy
source, but whether biofuels offer carbon savings depends on how they are produced. Converting rainforests, peatlands, savannas,
or grasslands to produce food crop–based biofuels in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the United States creates a “biofuel carbon
debt” by releasing 17 to 420 times more CO2 than the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions that these biofuels would provide by displacing fossil fuels. In contrast,
biofuels made from waste biomass or from biomass grown on degraded and abandoned agricultural lands planted with perennials
incur little or no carbon debt and can offer immediate and sustained GHG advantages.
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Limits of a Modern World: A Study of the Limits to Growth Debate Evaluating past forecasts: reflections on one critique of The Limits to Growth Sustainability or Collapse? An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth
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