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A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change, 18, 397-411
Abstract
In 1972, the Club of Rome's infamous report “The Limits to Growth” [Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., Behrens_III, W. W. (1972). The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. Universe Books, New York] presented some challenging scenarios for global sustainability, based on a system dynamics computer model to simulate the interactions of five global economic subsystems, namely: population, food production, industrial production, pollution, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. Contrary to popular belief, The Limits to Growth scenarios by the team of analysts from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology did not predict world collapse by the end of the 20th century. This paper focuses on a comparison of recently collated historical data for 1970–2000 with scenarios presented in the Limits to Growth. The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compare favorably with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the “standard run” scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st century. The data do not compare well with other scenarios involving comprehensive use of technology or stabilizing behaviour and policies. The results indicate the particular importance of understanding and controlling global pollution.
... The top twenty-first century competences of communication skills and interpersonal skills were excluded from the survey because retrospective rating of these two competences would have been too unreliable. Finally, the competence of environmental sustainability knowledge was added to the rating list because it had been so prevalent in the literature on twenty-first century life (EEA, 2015;Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008;WWF, 2016 Competences were sometimes rated individually but were often split into between two and five sub-competences that were easier for respondents to identify. For example, the competence of collaboration was divided into the sub-competences of idea &/or resource sharing in a student group or student partnership, role/responsibility taking in a student group or student partnership, and co-design &/or co-decision making amongst students. ...
... We recommend that environmental sustainability knowledge be recognised as an important twenty-first century competence in the literature. The twenty-first century life authors refer to it repeatedly (Davidson, 2005;Meadows et al., 1972;Randers, 2012;Turner, 2008) and the majority of participants in this research considered it as a crucial knowledge area. Environmental protection will be crucial across the globe over coming decades (Davidson, 2005;Meadows et al., 1972;Randers, 2012, Turner, 2008 so all twenty-first century students should study it extensively in order to be able to problem solve in this area as they progress into the workforce. ...
... The twenty-first century life authors refer to it repeatedly (Davidson, 2005;Meadows et al., 1972;Randers, 2012;Turner, 2008) and the majority of participants in this research considered it as a crucial knowledge area. Environmental protection will be crucial across the globe over coming decades (Davidson, 2005;Meadows et al., 1972;Randers, 2012, Turner, 2008 so all twenty-first century students should study it extensively in order to be able to problem solve in this area as they progress into the workforce. Environmental sustainability knowledge needs to be listed alongside creativity, problem solving, critical thinking, and all the other top twenty-first century competences. ...
Industrial Design education is poorly understood by laypeople but is present in Australian curricula from primary through to tertiary education levels. Designers and design researchers have long recognised the value of the broad-ranging skills, knowledge fields, and personal qualities design education imparts, but this understanding is generally not shared by the wider community who may see design as surface decoration. This research identifies indicators of value and relevance taken from the twenty-first century competences literature, then measures their presence in four different Industrial Design education settings. Two studies were undertaken. First, Industrial Design educators from primary, secondary, and tertiary levels were surveyed. Then diverse Industrial Design education stakeholders from education and non-education settings were interviewed. The studies gathered both quantitative and qualitative data on the value and relevance of current Industrial Design education in Australia. The result is a comprehensive analysis of the twenty-first century competences present in Australian Industrial Design education, which concludes with recommendations for ways Industrial Design education can benefit twenty-first century learners, as well as ways it should evolve to remain relevant.
... The involvement of young people in environmental promotion and protection opens up a platform for opportunities leading to general community sustainability (Failler, Keran, Seid, 2016). These opportunities transform people's attitudes towards the environment leading to healthy living (Turner, 2008). On the contrary, ignoring young people in matters of environmental promotion and protection only leads to the destruction of the environment (Church & Young, 2001). ...
... On the contrary, ignoring young people in matters of environmental promotion and protection only leads to the destruction of the environment (Church & Young, 2001). This occurrence deters the young people's responsibility concerning the environment and continual compromise with the environment (Turner, 2008). Through youth involvement, it is clear that communities are fostered in sustainable environmental promotion and protection. ...
A framework that can be used for the Anglican Church of Uganda for environmental promotion and protection using different approaches has been presented. The framework has an integration of all stakeholders of the Anglican Church of Uganda for example, Christian youths, Christian men, and Christian women, working together with the non-Christians, Community leaders and Non-Government Organizations that respond to the environmental promotion and protection. It calls for responsible Church carrying out activities such as sensitization, policy adherence, planting of trees, fighting plastic materials. All these can be realized through youth involvement, men involvement, women inclusiveness, community leaders’ engagement, and collaboration with NGOs.
... The subsystems dynamically change with time. A later study using identical subsystems and approaches to the analysis of the earlier study has shown that the previous predictions have changed, and the neoclassical economics-based market system can lead to adverse effects on the environment, and the technology cannot stabilise or reduce the harmful effects (Turner, 2008) [58]. Renewable and non-renewable natural resources limit growth if they are not used where resources can maintain ecological balance (Hahn and Stavins, 1992) [59]. ...
... The subsystems dynamically change with time. A later study using identical subsystems and approaches to the analysis of the earlier study has shown that the previous predictions have changed, and the neoclassical economics-based market system can lead to adverse effects on the environment, and the technology cannot stabilise or reduce the harmful effects (Turner, 2008) [58]. Renewable and non-renewable natural resources limit growth if they are not used where resources can maintain ecological balance (Hahn and Stavins, 1992) [59]. ...
This study aims to determine the influence of the fiscal, monetary, and public policy environment in Sri Lanka and its impact on sustainable development before and after COVID-19. This study used the document analysis qualitative research method to obtain and analyse fiscal, monetary, and public policy data. It assigned and measured the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) values and trends. The goals were clustered into social, environmental, and sustainability-related intellectual capital to measure their dimensional capital status values and trends. Despite the economic crisis, Sri Lanka has moderately progressed in sustainable development, with most improvements in social capital. The environmental and sustainability-related intellectual capital dimensions follow. The 17 SDGs were advancing at various levels. Two were on track (Goal 4: Quality education and Goal 9: Industry, innovation, and infrastructure). Five moderately improved goals (Goal 2: Zero hunger, Goal 3: Good health and well-being, Goal 6: Clean water and sanitation, Goal 12: Responsible consumption and production, and Goal 13: Climate action). Seven were stagnant (Goal 5: Gender equality, Goal 7: Affordable clean energy, Goal 8: Decent work and economic growth, Goal 11: Sustainable cities and communities, Goal 14: Life below water, Goal 16: Peace, justice, and strong institutions, and Goal 17: Partnership for the goals). Two showed a decrease (Goal 1: Poverty and Goal 15: Life on land). No data are reported for Goal 10 (Reduce inequalities). Fiscal and monetary policies were overly focussed on economic repair and reconstruction. Public policy has nevertheless contributed to sustainable development. This is the first study to examine the multidimensional policy environment and its impact on sustainable development in Sri Lanka.
... The authors summarize the debate since the 1970s and relate the topic to modern concepts such as the Planetary Boundaries of Rockström et al. (2009). Turner (2008) found that 30 years of historical data best fit the standard run scenario of the original World3 model. An update of this study in 2012 concluded that even after 40 years of empirical data, the standard run is still the best fitting scenario. ...
... The author found that, in contrast to previous comparisons, the closest matching scenarios were BAU2 and CT. These divergent results may also be due to slightly different comparison parameters and the use of the 1972 version of World3 by Turner (2008) and the updated 2005 version of the model by Herrington (2021). ...
After 50 years, there is still an ongoing debate about the Limits to Growth (LtG) study. This paper recalibrates the 2005 World3‐03 model. The input parameters are changed to better match empirical data on world development. An iterative method is used to compute and optimize different parameter sets. This improved parameter set results in a World3 simulation that shows the same overshoot and collapse mode in the coming decade as the original business as usual scenario of the LtG standard run. The main effect of the recalibration update is to raise the peaks of most variables and move them a few years into the future. The parameters with the largest relative changes are those related to industrial capital lifetime, pollution transmission delay, and urban‐industrial land development time.
... Dalla pubblicazione del famoso rapporto sui limiti dello sviluppo (Meadows, 1972), la situazione planetaria non è migliorata, tutt'altro. Se da una parte gli scenari del rapporto Meadows sono stati parzialmente confermati da misure effettuate posteriormente (Turner, 2008;Herrington, 2021), dall'altra si deve purtroppo constatare che alle crisi energetiche degli anni '70 e primi '80, si sono sommate negli ultimi decenni altre crisi, relative al clima, alla disponibilità di acqua dolce e di alimenti, al rapido diffondersi di agenti patogeni pericolosi per la nostra specie. La natura termodinamica dell'economia e la relazione dello sviluppo con i processi biofisici è peraltro sempre più evidente (Georgescu-Roegen, 1971). ...
... Since the famous report on limits to growth were published (Meadows, 1972), the state of the planet has not improved but is, instead, getting worse. If, on the one side, the scenarios of Meadows report have been partially confirmed by measurements (Turner, 2008;Herrington, 2021), on the other hand we should unfortunately admit that new crises relative to climate, water and food provision, and pathogen agent diffusion that is dangerous for our species must be added to the energy crisis of the '70s and early '80s. Moreover, the thermodynamic nature of the economy and relations between development and biophysical processes is always more evident (Georgescu-Roegen, 1971). ...
Technological imagination and innovation processes have always been at the basis of economic growth and the expansion of human domination over other species. Nevertheless, something seems to have got stuck. Can the leaps in technological development that make it possible to "reset" the clock to start growing again in a sustained form really be infinite? Or are we facing something different, a limit in the structural stability of the ecosystem itself? The worsening of the polycrisis-certainly also energetic-will require drastic solutions but should also allow, finally, the (re)emergence of radical ideas of renewal and transformation, as well as concrete proposals for spatial organization associated with the new lifestyles that they prefigure.
... We discovered an inspiring example that delivered on this potential: the 2018 Sámi Márkomeannu festival set 100 years in the future which foresees the Earth transformed by climate change and social inequalities, where only Indigenous peoples have managed to preserve nature and culture in isolated enclaves framed as Indigenous sanctuaries. Given consistent evidence that humanity is facing major population and resource-use transitions over the next 100 years with high uncertainty around the impacts of future changes, increasing the time frame of futures thinking is urgent (Nebel et al. 2023;Turner 2008). ...
Human societies face existential challenges on multiple fronts: climate change, biodiversity loss, altered biogeochemical flows, social unrest and injustices. Innovative solutions are needed to shift current trajectories towards a sustainable and just future. Futures thinking enables people to explore and articulate alternative futures and find pathways towards their desired futures. Indigenous people have the potential to make significant contributions to futures thinking because of their distinctive perspectives: the viewpoint of already living in a post-apocalyptic world in the context of colonisation, unique knowledges, worldviews, and perspectives on time, as well as significant contributions to safeguarding biological and cultural diversity. A body of literature is emerging where Indigenous peoples contribute to and lead futures thinking approaches; however, this literature is diffuse and highly diverse in its approaches and terminology. Thus, we take an innovation-seeking and systematic approach to (1) identify patterns and processes in futures thinking with, for, and by Indigenous people; (2) highlight innovative approaches; (3) bring together diverse and sector-specific terminology; and (4) foreground emerging strengths and weaknesses. We identified four framings of Indigenous futures thinking: Adaptation oriented, Participatory, Culturally grounded, and Indigenising. Factors contributing to innovation include strong involvement of Indigenous people in the research team, co-design, and authorship, using Indigenous methodologies, cultural protocols, and explicitly employing decolonisation and trauma-informed approaches. We spotlight the challenges of conducting an exhaustive literature review in an emerging field with inconsistent terminology (e.g., capturing regions where Indigeneity is contested). We also create a living glossary of terms to aid other researchers and communities in using and refining the suite of methods identified here, with the aim of stimulating further innovations in this field.
... The concept of sustainability broadly encompasses environmental, economic, and social issues, which necessitates a balanced approach across various domains, ranging from the conservation of natural resources to the enhancement of societal well-being and human health (Morelli, 2011). The balanced and future-oriented use of natural resources is referred as environmental sustainability (Turner, 2008). Economic sustainability, on the other hand, concerns ensuring sufficient resources for future generations while meeting the economic needs of today and maintaining economic equity (Ikert, 2012). ...
The objective of this study is to uncover a deep insight into the impact of demographic characteristics on sustainable eating habits within restaurants. Based on data collected from 401 participants and grounded in the sustainable and healthy eating behavior scale, this study presents findings using a quantitative methodology. The results indicate that although there is significant variability in healthy eating practices among different social groups, overall participation in these habits is moderate. Specifically, practices related to seasonal foods and avoiding food waste, which demonstrate a strong awareness of food preservation, garnered the highest levels of participation. In contrast, dimensions such as animal welfare, local food consumption, and meat reduction showed the lowest levels of participation, indicating areas where awareness is comparatively lower. Demographic analyses revealed that older and married participants exhibited a greater inclination towards sustainable eating behaviors compared to younger and single participants. The study also found a positive correlation between higher income levels and greater awareness and practice of sustainable eating behaviors. Moreover, it was observed that as participants' income levels increased, so did their awareness and engagement with sustainable eating practices. These findings underscore the need for educational initiatives to promote sustainable eating habits, particularly among younger and more highly educated participants, to increase awareness and adoption of such behaviors.
... Em 1987, o conceito de desenvolvimento sustentável é publicado pela Comissão Mundial sobre Meio Ambiente e Desenvolvimento, no relatório Our Common Future (WCED, 1987), como sendo: "O desenvolvimento que encontra as necessidades atuais sem comprometer a habilidade das futuras gerações de atender suas próprias necessidades". Desde então, estas preocupações ganharam relevância com diversos estudos, que aprofundam os conhecimentos e atualizam as projeções referentes ao crescimento da atividade econômica e a oferta de recursos (TURNER, 2008;HERRINGTON, 2021;HALL, 2022). ...
No setor de energia, o trilema é caracterizado como sendo as correlações entre segurança energética, equidade energética e sustentabilidade ambiental. Devido à crescente preocupação com relação às mudanças ambientais globais, o peso atribuído ao pilar ambiental tem aumentado e criado um novo ponto de equilíbrio para o trilema. Isso tem pressionado a transição energética, embora as ações de muitas nações ainda não estejam alinhadas com a urgência ambiental atual. Com base em uma revisão de literatura, este artigo apresenta uma caracterização do trilema da energia, visando entender como as mudanças ambientais têm o impactado na sociedade, considerando tanto a perspectiva global como brasileira. É possível concluir que as relações entre os temas que compõem o trilema de energia são complexas e devem ser balanceadas refletindo as características, necessidades e disponibilidades tecnológicas de cada região, não sendo plausível uma solução única global para esse balanço. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Transição Energética. Planejamento Energético. Segurança Energética. Equidade Energética. Sustentabilidade Ambiental.
... And yet, over time, the MIT group's firstorder projections have proven to be surprisingly accurate. A comparison of historical data with model predictions confirmed that the base case scenario model was broadly correct (Turner 2008), at least up until around 2010 (Jackson et al. 2016). Moreover, more recent studies have confirmed the basic thesis that business-as-usual economic growth is exceeding fundamental planetary boundaries (Wackernagel et al. 2002, Randers et al. 2019). ...
There is a growing view that the mission of the Earth sciences ought to be reframed around the global sustainability agenda, and specifically the grand challenges of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Yet the SDGs are criticised for lacking a coherent sense of the complex interconnections and synergies between its economic, environmental and social ambitions, for maintaining the impetus of economic growth, and for the absence of a compelling narrative for what a sustainable future world might look like. Given those limitations, this paper offers an alternative meta-narrative to the global sustainability challenge in the form of coupled planetary and human well-being. It is a narrative that emerges from an overview of five decades of environmental discourse and debate to emphasise the central importance of Earth stewardship as a unifying theme. It presents the Daly Triangle as a holistic conceptual framework to link the health of the planet’s natural resource base, through the operations of a sustainable economy, to the ultimate ends of long-term well-being for all.
... During the last 50 years, the WORLD3 model has undergone several changes (Meadows et al., 1993(Meadows et al., , 2004, to several sensitivity analyses (Heath et al., 2019;Jochaud Du Plessix, 2019;Vermeulen & de Jongh, 1976), and to several forecast verifications (Herrington, 2021(Herrington, , 2022Turner, 2008). ...
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are popular tools used to predict the evolution of human society, a challenging question that science has long tried to address. The World3 model is a popular IAM, designed in the seventies by several scientists convened by the Club of Rome and mostly known for its usage to analyze the so‐called limits to growth. The recent Earth for all (E4A) model has been initiated by one of the major co‐authors of the World3 model, Jørgen Randers. It is substantially more complicated than the relatively simple World3 model, and it has been used to compare two different and opposite world development scenarios: the too little too late scenario, in which current policies are assumed to continue, and the giant leap (GL) scenario, in which 21 policies related to five turnarounds are identified to produce significant improvements in six indicators of human well‐being. By using global and local sensitivity analyses of the E4A model, we suggest that the evolution of the six indicators in the GL scenario can be approximately reached by focusing on just six policies and three turnarounds (namely, the energy, the inequality, and the poverty turnarounds). The evolution of the six indicators can be even improved by investing “reasonably” more on three of these six policies and by keeping unchanged the remaining three. From a methodological point of view, we exploit both global (Sobol) and local sensitivity analyses to identify the policies that most influence the six indicators, and we subsequently execute a scenario analysis of the identified policies to confirm that they can produce a similar (or even a better) evolution of the indicators themselves.
... The information generated by the stock and flow computer simulations for both the renewable and the non-renewable resource cases in this paper are both driven by the underlying business growth goals in the system. The profound idea that there are limits to growth and that mankind is still on course to overshooting our ecological footprint has been empirically validated (Meadows et al., 1972;Meadows et al., 2004;Turner, 2008). Changing our current trajectory and living in a stable balance with our natural world requires a change in thinking or mental models. ...
... This book certainly raised awareness of the limits that planetary systems pose for humanity, though it evoked huge criticism from many who did not want to believe its messages. Despite critiques, however, most of the report's business as usual projections have now been documented to be on target with the reality generating today's polycrisis (Herrington 2021;Meadows et al. 2004;Turner 2008). ...
This paper argues that for humanity to deal with the intersecting, existential threats of polycrisis, broad-based narrative changes are needed to make practical and relevant eco-social (or social ecological) imaginaries and related contracts. An imaginary is how people conceive or think about the world around them and their relationship to it. Social contracts are explicit and implicit agreements about how humans structure their social institutions, including rights and obligations, privileges, benefits, and restrictions. Current imaginaries (and related contracts) are almost solely human-centric, while the shift argued for here is towards eco-social imaginaries, in which both humans and nature are granted rights to flourish. Such new imaginaries have the potential to shift ideas about humans as actors in the world towards life-centric eco-social understandings in which human beings are seen as part of and interdependent with nature, and develop economies and societies oriented towards wellbeing for both humans and nature. While historically social imaginaries and their related social contracts have been human-centric, more ecologically centric imaginaries have been emerging for several decades, and in the early 2020s, as this paper documents, have now begun to become explicit. This paper identifies seven recent efforts to define and make explicit the broad parameters of such eco-social imaginaries that might be widely deployed to begin the difficult and long-term process of systemic change needed to achieve flourishing for humans and nature.
... The negative reactions to the observations and policy response explorations made, for example, by the authors of The Limits to Growth (Meadows et al. 1972;Meadows et al. 2004) are a telling case in point, and the almost-gleeful manner in which this work was systematically and deliberately misrepresented and widely ridiculed makes for blood-boiling and blood-chilling reading for anyone wanting to influence global public policy (Bardi 2008(Bardi , 2011. This is all the more ironic since subsequent follow-up work tracking the actual trajectory of human civilizationas it has compared to the "baseline" "business-asusual" "do-nothing-differently" "standard run" of The Limits to Growthshows that global civilization is right on track for the resulting baseline "overshoot and collapse" scenario to unfold, essentially right on schedule (Turner 2008(Turner , 2014. We seem to have blithely wasted the very narrow window of opportunity we would have had to avert this future which heeding the message of The Limits to Growth might have afforded us (Randers 2012). ...
... In an early analysis, Limits was criticized by researchers who questioned its outcome assessments [46]. A more recent reanalysis employing updated data illustrates that Limits' conclusions-which specified a mid-21st century global ecological collapse-remain plausible [47]. Scientific studies of the stability of "planetary boundaries" [4] support similar conclusions. ...
Among environmental sociologists, ecological Marxists argue that there is an association between capitalism and ecological destruction/disorganization. This argument suggests that capitalism and nature are in contradiction with one another, so that the expansion of capitalism necessarily results in the destruction of nature. Green criminologists expand on this point and argue that ecological disorganization generates legal and illegal green crimes and injustice. This capitalism–nature association suggests that solving the current ecological crisis would require replacing capitalism. In contrast, the dissipative structure analysis (DSA) argues that capitalist nations pass through phases of development and that as advanced capitalist nations age, the level of ecological destruction they cause becomes attenuated. If true, this outcome suggests that capitalism might solve the problem of ecological destruction by aging. This article reviews these two theoretical arguments, exposes the limitation of the dissipative structure argument, and suggests that future research is required to completely address dissipative structure assumptions. A major limitation of the dissipative structure analysis is its failure to account for the effect of developing capitalist nations on the expansion of ecological disorganization. Trend charts are employed to illustrate the limitations of the DSA hypothesis concerning reduced ecological disorganization.
... In 1972, the Club of Rome report marked the beginning of the sustainable development approach [1]. The approach to sustainable development involves meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future residents to meet their own needs [2]. ...
The COVID-19 crisis has disrupted economies and societies and the sustainability characteristics of agri-food due to a significant decline in turnover, difficulties in transportation, and changes in market and contact habits. An analysis was carried out using the PRISMA protocol and the Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Direct electronic databases. The aim of this research is to present the main research issues in agri-food sustainability (economic, environmental, and social issues) in the pre-COVID-19 period, to compare it with the research trends in the COVID-19 period, and to explore the influence of the epidemic. This research looks for research gaps and possible future research directions. Research before COVID-19 was primarily concerned with environmental and economic sustainability. The main focus areas were business development and environmental issues. During COVID-19, the focus shifted to economic sustainability. Survival was the primary issue. The main research areas were financial, inventory, waste management, and innovation issues. Food safety and digitalisation were highlighted. Precision agriculture, short food supply chains, and collaboration increased efficiency. The role of trust has increased. The COVID-19 experience is valuable for almost all disciplines. Policy, health, and economic decision-makers can apply better solutions to future crises.
... Ces rapports sont la plupart du temps basés sur des modèles de prévision à plus ou moins long terme, modélisant notamment l'évolution temporelle du comportement social en fonction du capital financier, du capital humain et du capital écologique. (Turner 2008). On y constate un décrochage avant 2025 de la production industrielle, de la production agricole (nourriture disponible), de l'espérance de vie, du bien-être humain et des ressources non renouvelables de la planète, avec une réplique en 2050. ...
Algiers city is going through a particular period of crisis, due to the
drought, which has heavily impacted the population's water supply system
over the past three years. Public strategies have been flawed, since their
objective of meeting water needs has accentuated and brought closer the
occurrence of new crises. Systems theory and the concept of carrying capacity threshold have been used to analyze system instabilities and the
occurrence of breaks and accidents. The perspective is to set up an urban
and territorial intelligence and a socio-ecological transition in Algiers and
its hinterland for better resilience and more sustainable development.
... Bu kavram temel olarak çevrebilim ve ekolojik sistemlerin fonksiyonlarını, süreçlerini ve üretkenliğini gelecekte de ilerletebilme yeteneği olarak görülmektedir (Chapin ve diğerleri, 1996). Dünyada bulunan kaynakların ve çevrenin insan aktiviteleri sonucunda tükenme sınırına doğru yaklaştığı ile ilgili konu hakkında genel bir görüş birliği bulunmaktadır (Turner, 2008). Bu bakımdan incelendiğinde sürdürülebilirlik, yalnızca doğadaki kaynakların kendiliğinden yenilenebilmesiyle sağlanabilmektedir. ...
... Despite one of the primary research studies, Limits to Growth, sustainability is a notion that is finally becoming more widely understood by the general population. The 35-year-old Limits to Growth [65] has recently undergone a big update [66]. Overshoot represents a fundamental idea in sustainability that has a direct connection to ergonomics [67]. ...
The study and implementation of ergonomics are vital for the growth of industries and improvement in work cultures. Sustainable manufacturing cannot be achieved without the implementation of human-factor ergonomics. Ergonomics is used to analyze the link between research studies and industrial practices in order to maximize the efficiency of processes by keeping in view the well-being of workforce. Designing tools, tasks, machines, systems, jobs, and settings for efficient, safe, and successful human usage involves applying knowledge about human behavior, abilities, and limitations. Workers are the backbone of the manufacturing economy. The review outlines significant advancements in preventing ergonomic problems during the design stage of the manufacturing process to achieve sustainability. The bibliometric analysis is used to identify the literature base for ergonomics. To maximize the benefits of ergonomics and to integrate sustainable practices, various methods are required to organize existing processes and technologies. The human-centered design identifies problems and aligns the output with the intended objectives of sustainability. The goal of human factors and ergonomics is to successfully integrate people into systems and develop the manufacturing processes around the well-being of workers and sustainability principles. Similarly, ergoecology, eco-ergonomics, and green ergonomics are frequently used for sustainable manufacturing. Achieving sustainability in manufacturing is not possible without considering human ergonomics. Ergonomists frequently research management, planning, and other topics to increase the efficiency of the manufacturing process. Efficient worker performance and quality of life can be enhanced through work design, management, and organizational ergonomics. Human ergonomics relates sustainability with cognitive variables such as situational awareness, human reliability, and decision-making abilities. This review explains the role of human factors and ergonomics for sustainable manufacturing.
... However, Raskin and Swart argue that there is some evidence of a much broader set of scenarios including those that would lead to thriving ecosystems and societies (e.g., what Raskin and Swart call "Great Transitions," and what we call "Transformations"), as well as Figure 4. Adaptation of the Tellus Global Scenarios framework, including the three branches of "conventional worlds," "great transitions," and "barbarization," along with the subsequent branches. We overlay this with examples of SSP climate scenarios, a proposed normative scenario titled "Just transition" (from Figure 2), and an additional example in the Barbarization branch using the "Standard Run" from Herrington (2020), D. H. Meadows et al. (1972), D. L. Meadows andRanders (2012), andTurner (2008). the potential for trajectories of crisis and collapse (e.g., what Raskin and Swart call "Barbarization," and what we call "Breakdown of systems"). ...
The Anthropocene is the present time of human‐caused accelerating global change, and new forms of Anthropocene risk are emerging that society has hitherto never experienced. Science and policy are grappling with the temporal and spatial magnitude of these changes. However, there is a gap in the transparency—and perhaps even in the awareness—of the profound role that Anthropocene science plays in shaping the structure and possibility of our future world. In this work, we explore three key features of Anthropocene scenarios, including: worlding capacity, values shaping what is possible, and refusal to look. We explore these three features using three cases of Anthropocene science including international energy scenarios, climate change projections, and the possibility of social collapse. We discuss how Anthropocene science modulates new risks and systematically, though perhaps inadvertently, entrains certain social‐ecological futures. We find that clarity in these three attributes of Anthropocene science could enhance its integrity and build trust, not least in the arena of public policy. We conclude with recommendations for improving the interpretability and scope of Anthropocene science in the context of a growing urgency for accurate information to inform our collective future.
... We will not enter into any discussion of this thesis here, which was extensively criticized or, according to some, later revalidated(Turner 2008). ...
... One of the most reasoned and substantiated confirmations of the correctness of the forecasts of D. Mendouz's group is the research of Graham Turner [25][26][27]. ...
The relevance of the issue is due to the intensification of global crisis phenomena in the field of ecology and social sphere, the increasing imbalance of the world economy, the insufficient scale of implementation in practical activities of environmental and social aspects of development that contribute to the sustainable growth of society. Goal of the issue is to identify how the environmental and social values of modern global sustainable development are taken into account in regulatory international and national documents, in the concepts of Industry 4.0, Industry 5.0 and Society 5.0 and how they are consistent with each other. Research methods include bibliographic analysis, comparative analysis, cliometric methods, modeling. The reports and scenarios of the Club of Rome for 1972-2023, studies of large consulting companies were used as a database. Results. The study revealed a gradual strengthening of the role and importance of environmental and social values in international documents and policies in the field of sustainable development. However, these rates are not sufficient to form favorable trends in the field of sustainable development and overcome the movement of humanity along the trajectory of the crisis. Conclusions. Based on the results of the study, it was concluded that following only economic goals without an active transition to achieving environmental and social goals based on corresponding values leads humanity to climate and social crises.
... Although Malthus's views are widely seen as having been discredited by actual developments, notably the expansion of food supply by modern farming techniques, the idea that the growing demand for resources, from population growth and increased standards of living, will outstrip the capacity of the earth to provide for humans, has not disappeared. It made a strong come-back with the publication, in 1972, of the Limits to Growth report by the Club of Rome (Meadows, 1972), which, although criticised for flaws in the models and underlying assumptions on which they were based, has stood up remarkably well to the test of time (Meadows, et al., 2005;Turner, 2008). That resources are getting scarcer, because of the unmitigated growth in demand and the decline or erosion of the environmental basis on which their production depends, is an idea that has gained wide support in scientific and political circles, not just from doomsayers (Brown, 2006;Cohen, 2007;Gordon, et al., 2006;Kerr, 2007;Menzie, et al., 2005;Simpson, et al., 2005). ...
In recent years, conflicts about resources (water, minerals/mining, land, among other) appear to have gained in prominence in New Zealand. However, New Zealand is the not only country affected by resource conflicts, and there is a growing literature that signals a rise of conflicts about resources around the world, and between and within countries, in large part due to increased scarcity. In parallel, governments are said to have become more concerned about resource security. However, whether the conflicts around resources in New Zealand can be (best) explained on the basis of the ideas or theories of this increasingly influential school of thought is open to debate. There are at least two other, more traditional, bodies of thinking-pluralism and political-economy-that offer alternative interpretations and explanations of conflict. The aim of this paper is to assess the extent to which these three theoretical perspectives, on their own or in combination, offer plausible explanations for the more recent resource conflicts in New Zealand.
... As the stated or implied purpose of scenario analysis is to influence decisions with an 'if-then…' type of analysis, a match between actual real-world outcomes and simulation results may indicate a lack of influence rather than a sign of the validity of the model used. For example, Randers [13] and Turner [14], in their reviews of evidence on the seminal 'limits to growth' studies thirty years after they were made, noted both model shortcomings and aspects where actual decisions were apparently influenced to change direction. The new research agenda for plausible and desirable human futures in the Anthropocene requires prospecting tools that reflect human decisions in their full and challenging complexity of interacting intuitive and deliberative aspects [15,16] ( Figure 1). ...
Assertion of the validity of the way agents' decision-making remains one of the central epistemological problems in empirical agent-based model (ABM) simulations. Reliable and robust models of individual and group-level decision-making are needed if scenarios are to be relevant for policies with implications in natural resource management. Serious games (in the form of role-playing games) have emerged as stakeholder-centric ways of parameterizing human behavior and decision-making and validating ABM results. Iterations between games and ABMs may offer attractive options for quality control in salient, credible, and legitimate ABM use. However, a revisit to a validated case study after six years suggested that models and games generate 'prospects' rather than 'predictions' as events not foreseen in model development added to recognized parameter uncertainty.
... Another facet of sustainability involves the ability to perpetuate the Earth's natural cycles and productivity for future generations (Chapin et al., 1996). Regrettably, many scientists expressed concerns that the world's resources have reached a critical depletion point (Turner, 2008). From this perspective, achieving sustainability necessitates utilizing natural resources at a pace that allows for their spontaneous regeneration. ...
... A study conducted some 30 years later ran the model again with updated data, finding that it fitted trends over the last three decades remarkably well. 72 The Limits to Growth thesis has been a source of heated debate. Proponents of the 'degrowth' approach argue that, to date, no country has decoupled material consumption from economic growth, 73 that limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C will require contractions in energy demand (and likely economic activity) which are incredibly challenging to achieve alongside continued economic growth, that infinite growth is impossible on a finite planet, 74 and that growth brings neither happiness nor human flourishing. ...
This innovative and comprehensive collection of essays explores the biggest threats facing humanity in the 21st century; threats that cannot be contained or controlled and that have the potential to bring about human extinction and civilization collapse. Bringing together experts from many disciplines, it provides an accessible survey of what we know about these threats, how we can understand them better, and most importantly what can be done to manage them effectively.
These essays pair insights from decades of research and activism around global risk with the latest academic findings from the emerging field of Existential Risk Studies. Voicing the work of world leading experts and tackling a variety of vital issues, they weigh up the demands of natural systems with political pressures and technological advances to build an empowering vision of how we can safeguard humanity’s long-term future.
The book covers both a comprehensive survey of how to study and manage global risks with in-depth discussion of core risk drivers: including environmental breakdown, novel technologies, global scale natural disasters, and nuclear threats. The Era of Global Risk offers a thorough analysis of the most serious dangers to humanity.
Inspiring, accessible, and essential reading for both students of global risk and those committed to its mitigation, this book poses one critical question: how can we make sense of this era of global risk and move beyond it to an era of global safety?
... The LTG study brought an engineering perspective to inter-connections between socio-ecological systems and provided a technological system's tool, aptly called System Dynamics Methodology (SDM). Further, after 30 years of its publication, some of the predicted results from LTG study, were corroborated by G.M.Turner [28]. ...
SUPPORTING INFORMATION Assessing environmental-economic costs for rainfed, irrigated and rainwater-harvested systems: A system dynamic modeling application for the Free State, South Africa
... To introduce the historical context, it is essential to point out that concern for the environment began to emerge at the end of the Second World War [9], which is the period when concerns about the significant problems of that period became evident. At this stage, we should highlight the First Report of the Club of Rome, dated 1972, called "the limits of growth" [10], which concluded that the planet would reach the limits of its growth over the next one hundred years. It was in 1987 that the concept of sustainable development came into existence [11], which had international repercussions thanks to the Brundtland Report presented by the World Commission on Environment and Development [12]. ...
Sustainable development and its significant challenges motivate various international organisations in a way that has never been seen before. With Europe at the forefront, countries such as the United States want to be included in the progress and what a clear and determined commitment to sustainability means for future generations. Our study aimed to go deeper into the follow-up and monitoring of the development of reliable indicators that make the continuous improvement process in sustainability robust. To this end, and using the fuzzy logic methodology, we applied it to one of the indices that have been developed to date, the “Sustainable Development Report” (in its 2022 edition), working on the specific application of SDG 11. Our results show favourable positions for countries such as Brunei Darussalam, Tonga, Tuvalu, Andorra, and the Netherlands and provide robustness when there is a lack of data quality and improvements in the implementation of the process when experts intervene.
... In "The Limits to Growth" [14], this idea of the necessity for a balance between nature and the economy was taken up again, with a team of interdisciplinary MIT specialists predicting overshoot and collapse of economy, environment, and population before 2070 if no actions were taken against continued growth and increasing use of resources. The writers, at times harshly criticized -New York Times journalists calling it "little more than polemical fiction" [15] and others wanting to assign it to the "dustbin of history" [16] -have since been largely vindicated by more recent climate research and obvious global environmental degradation (e.g., [17]). Another notable milestone in the history of sustainability is the publication of the "Our Common Future" 1 report of the World Commission on Environment and Development in 1987, in which Sustainable Development is being defined as development "meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" [18]. ...
The report was presented at the 16th UN Internet Governance Forum (IGF) in Poland. You can download the full report and watch the presentation here: https://www.intgovforum.org/en/content/policy-network-on-environment-pne
... Critics had claimed that this well-known work from the 1970s had been shown to be wrong, and tried to discredit the Australian work by connection. Fiowever, a detailed examination of the LtG shows clearly that the critics were outright lying or regurgitating a myth (Turner, 2012;Turner, 2008). The LtG is worth briefly revisiting in the following section before delving into some key findings from the detailed Aus¬ tralian modelling. ...
... In the years that followed, the trend in the consumption of fossil sources confirmed what was predicted in the "Meadows Report" rather well [17]. ...
A significant portion of postwar buildings, typically concentrated in suburban areas, are now difficult assets to manage due to their poor sustainability and limited replacement feasibilities. This paper focuses on strategies to improve their metabolism using energy-saving measures based on optimizing energy needs and integrating internal and external energy sources: a new organizational model for energy management should focus first on saving energy, and then on the possibility of integration into a local energy network. This positively affects the anthropogenic impact and becomes a role model for aggregating buildings not only into a district system, but also into a wider, large-scale energy network. The paper shows a significant case study of actual retrofitting intervention that is examined in order to confirm the theoretical guidelines proposed in the first part of the paper. Moreover, another significant case study, taken from common practice, is illustrated, in which different levels of retrofitting are tested. While taking into account the complexity and fragmentation of private property both in a single building and in the city, some strategies are finally described with the aim of reducing the anthropic impact of the postwar building stock.
... Critics, however, suggested that the model was faulty and made the future look too bleak. Yet, recent research including a "30 year update" largely confirms the predictions of the 1972 model (Meadows et al. 2009;Randers 2012;Turner 2008. ...
The Routledge Handbook of Global Sustainability Governance provides a state-of-the-art review of core debates and contributions that offer a more normative, critical, and transformatively aspirational view on global sustainability governance.
In this landmark text, an international group of acclaimed scholars provides an overview of key analytical and normative perspectives, material and ideational structural barriers to sustainability transformation, and transformative strategies. Drawing on pivotal new and contemporary research, the volume highlights aspects to be considered and blind spots to be avoided when trying to understand and implement global sustainability governance. In this context, the authors of this book debunk many myths about all-too optimistic accounts of progress towards a sustainability transition. Simultaneously, they suggest approaches that have the potential for real sustainability transformation and systemic change, while acknowledging existing hurdles.
... They gave one of their first performances was the commissioning of a report by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) called "The Limits to Growth", published in 1972. It examined five fundamental factors and their interactions that determine growth on this planet -population, agricultural production, non-renewable resource depletion, industrial output and pollution (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008;Purvis et al., 2019). Many authors, including Fukuda-Parr and Muchhala (2020), place this moment as the origin of the term "sustainable development". ...
This descriptive study aims to identify the most published SDGs by @GlobalGoalsUN, the United Nations' official account for sustainable development goals, and elaborate the segmentation profiles of these messages that promote a more significant impact from the perspective of social marketing and happiness. With more than 345 million active users in 2022, Twitter is a relevant social media tool for researching and knowing public reactions. In order to identify the most relevant SDGs, we have downloaded tweets from January 1, 2021, to September 30, 2022. The segmentation profiles have been elaborated with the classification tree using the division method called CHAID (Chi-square automatic interaction detector), which allows the automatic detection of interactions through Chi-square. This technique has made it possible to identify four homogeneous sub-samples corresponding to the segmentation profiles of messages based on impact, social marketing and happiness. The results of these profiles show the categories of the variables that best distinguish the messages. In addition, it has been verified that the most published SDGs do not coincide with those that have achieved the greatest impact. The climate has been the most published SDG (SDG 13 Climate action), but the one that has obtained the most significant reaction from the public has been the SDG related to well-being (SDG 3 Health and well-being). The most popular format has been video, the most recurrent emotional tone has been neutral, and, about social marketing, a category of action messages stands out, unlike behavioural ones, which do not specify the indications to carry out a specific initiative.
The phenomenon of sustainability, which developed as a response to increasing environmental problems on a global scale, has revealed the concept of sustainable architecture in the field of design and construction. Sustainable architecture, emphasizing the conscious and efficient use of energy and natural resources, entails a contemporary architectural approach designed and constructed balanced from economic, social, and ecological perspectives. The sustainable architecture approach, which advocates the necessity of a site-specific design approach, moves away from the concept of a typical project and determines the geography of the buildings. It draws attention to its design in line with its climatic, ecological, and sociocultural characteristics.
This thesis aims to examine mosque structures built between 1970 and 2020 from the perspective of sustainable architecture, focusing on the problems of mosque architecture that have emerged through examples produced in Turkey during this period. Within the scope of the research conducted in the Diyarbakır sample, 23 mosques located in an urban area where urbanization continued uninterrupted between 1970 and 2020 are considered. The research conducted in the Diyarbakır sample encompasses 23 mosques in an urban area where continuous urbanization occurred between 1970 and 2020. The mosques, examined at the urban, plot, and building scales, are analyzed in six thematic areas of sustainable architecture: effective use of energy, water, and materials; human health and comfort; urban design and land planning; and preservation of social and cultural values. The design data and improvement strategies obtained through the analysis aim to provide a different perspective on the issue of mosques through the lens of sustainable architectural principles.
The multidimensional nature of the problems encountered in mosques built in the 1970s and later provides a research laboratory that allows for a detailed examination of sustainable architecture for mosques. The thesis's main structure is identifying what is unsustainable in mosques and discussing how sustainability can be achieved. This is accomplished through the analysis of existing issues and the discussion of these problems through contemporary approaches. Findings obtained through various focused data collection efforts are systematically collected and described in the primary and sub-thematic areas identified. Sustainable architectural strategies are customized and discussed based on mosques religious and cultural context and their unique structural, spatial, and functional features.
The ways in which societies, institutions and citizens relate to and value nature have played a key role in the interconnected biodiversity, climate change, natural resource and health crises we face. This briefing explores how to reframe the relationships between humans and nature. It examines how holistically understanding humans deep interconnection with other life forms and ecosystems could lead to new motivations to protect nature and accelerate the societal transformation we need to live well within the limits of the planet.
Limits to growth raise concerns about “growth dependencies” or adverse social effects that follow if the economy does not grow. The first point of this article is that identifying pensions as growth-dependent is more conditional than has so far been recognized. It requires operationalizing growth dependence, making complete economic assumptions, and scoping the issue to specific pension functions. The second point is to take those steps and, with exploratory scenarios, show how growth dependence is and is not evident under all ideal-type pension-financing principles. All plans would be growth-dependent if we interpret the end of growth as lower interest rates and earnings development but higher inflation than under growth assumptions. However, no plan shows growth dependence under all assumptions. I also discuss post-growth pensions, arguing that funded pensions entail vulnerability and distributional issues that make them problematic in a non-growing system. Unfunded financing combined with comprehensive social and economic policies could work as a long-term approach. Growth dependence is an important research area. However, without specification, the concept may blur the conditionalities that generate and alleviate pension vulnerabilities.
İnsanoğlu, varoluşundan itibaren ihtiyaç sahibi bir varlık olarak dünyaya gelir. Dünya hayatına adım attığı an itibarıyla, çeşitli ihtiyaçlarını karşılamak için bir mücadele içine girer. Özellikleri sınırlandırılmış insanoğlunun bu mücadelesinde, kendisi gibi özellikleri sınırlandırılmış dünyada varlığını sürdürme çabası kadar Yüce Yaratıcının belirleyiciliği de büyük rol oynamaktadır. İnsan, aile ve toplum içinde yaşayarak görev ve sorumluluklarının farkında olur; ancak sahip olduğu imkanlar ve yeteneklerle ihtiyaçlarını tam olarak karşılayamayabilir. Zamana göre değişen ihtiyaçlar, bazen insanların kendi imkanlarıyla karşılayabileceği düzeyde olabilirken, bazen de yetersizlikle sonuçlanabilir. İşte bu noktada, insanlar yardımlaşmaya ihtiyaç duyarlar. Tarihsel süreç içinde, insanların ihtiyaçlarını karşılamak için farklı yöntemler ve çözümler aradığına dair birçok örnek bulunmaktadır. Bu durum, insanlığın birlikte yaşama ve birbirine destek olma gerekliliğini vurgular. Bu çalışma, insanın yardımlaşmaya olan ihtiyacını ve farklı din ve topluluklarda bu ihtiyacın nasıl uygulandığını incelemektedir. Ayrıca, yardımlaşmanın sürdürülebilirliği ve finansal kaynakların önemi üzerine odaklanmaktadır. Vakıf anlayışı, yardımlaşma uygulamalarının finansal sürdürülebilirliğini sağlayan bir yöntem olarak ele alınmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın ana soruları şunlardır: “İnsan nasıl bir varlıktır ve neden yardımlaşmaya ihtiyaç duymaktadır?”, “Farklı din ve topluluklarda yardımlaşma nasıl uygulanmıştır?”, “Yardımlaşmanın sürekliliğinde finansal kaynaklara ihtiyaç var mıdır?”, “Sürdürülebilirlik hedeflerinin sağlanmasında vakıf uygulamaları katkı sağlayabilir mi?”. Bu soruların yanıtları, insanın yardımlaşmaya olan doğal eğilimini, farklı kültürler ve dinlerdeki yardımlaşma uygulamalarını, finansal kaynakların yardımlaşmanın sürekliliğindeki rolünü ve vakıf uygulamalarının sürdürülebilirlik hedeflerine katkısını açıklığa kavuşturacaktır. Bu çerçevede, vakıf anlayışının tarihi perspektifi de göz önünde bulundurularak, yardımlaşmanın geleceğine ışık tutulması hedeflenmektedir. Dini inanç sistemlerindeki zorunlu veya gönüllü yardımların varlığına rağmen, yardım yapılması veya yapılmaması bireyin Yüce Yaratıcı ile olan inanç ilişkisine bağlıdır ve bu dünyada herhangi bir yaptırımı yoktur. Ancak, bu durum ihtiyaç sahiplerinin gereksinimlerini karşılamada yetersiz kalabilir. Çalışmanın sonuçları, yardımlaşmada karşılaşılan finansal sürdürülebilirlik sorunlarının, vakıf uygulamalarının politik, ekonomik ve hukuki düzenlemelerle çözülebileceğini öne sürmektedir.
For all living things, including humans, to continue existing, the environment plays a crucial role. Microbiological and molecular biology technologies are becoming more popular, and their environmental applications are growing. Proteomics, metabolomics, and genomics environmental bioremediation technologies are cheaper, greener, and have significant application potential. Due to their fast response to environmental changes, microorganisms can monitor environmental changes. Environmental sustainability measures how effectively the physical environment can support its constituent parts over time. Further, trying to dispose of harmful or poisonous compounds using any recognized technique is insufficient. To achieve environmental sustainability at its finest, one must reuse and recycle all materials, including trash, to put them to good use and preserve the harmonious interplay between living things and their environment. Numerous biosensors for biomonitoring environmental samples for pesticide evaluation have been created worldwide due to their high performance, ease of use, and on-site operation. Environmental biotechnology’s potential to improve remediation, waste reduction, and pollution avoidance is highlighted. Innovative molecular biology and genetic engineering strategies are studied to capitalize on this potential. These strategies would improve biological process understanding to boost efficiency, productivity, and adaptability. The biological approach to environmental sustainability involves examining the various biotools currently in use and those under study for potential future applications.
Sürdürülebilir kalkınma, toplumların iktisadi büyüme hedefine ek olarak, gelecek nesilleri düşünerek, çevre ve yaşam kalitesini de göz önüne aldıkları bir kavramdır. Sürdürülebilir kalkınma, iktisadi, sosyal ve çevresel olmak üzere üç boyuttan oluşmaktadır. Çalışmada, iktisadi boyut; makroekonomik performans endeksi (MEPE), sosyal boyut; sosyal ilerleme endeksi (SİE) ve çevresel boyut; ekolojik ayak izi aracılığıyla temsil edilmiştir. Türkiye ve Türki cumhuriyetlere ilişkin 2022 yılı sürdürülebilir kalkınma performansı bu endekslerden elde edilen 12 kriter aracılığıyla hesaplanmıştır. İlgili hesaplamada iktisadi dört, sosyal üç ve çevresel beş değişken kriter olarak alınmıştır. Kriter ağırlıkları CRITIC-LOPCOW yöntemlerinin IDOCRIW yöntem formülü benzeri bir formülle bayes yaklaşımı kullanılarak birleştirilmesi sonucunda elde edilmiştir. Ülkelerin sürdürülebilir kalkınma performansları, CoCoSo yöntemiyle belirlenmiştir. Sürdürülebilir kalkınma üzerinde en etkili kriterler sırasıyla, büyüme oranı, deniz alanları ekolojik ayak izi, işsizlik oranı iken en etkisiz kriterler sırasıyla, otlatma alanları, ekilebilir arazi ve CO2 olmuştur. Sürdürülebilir kalkınma performansı en yüksek ülkeler sırasıyla, Özbekistan, Kırgızistan ve Kazakistan olurken; performansı en düşük ülkeler sırasıyla, Türkiye, Özbekistan ve Tacikistan olmuştur. Sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın bu kriterler aracılığıyla hesaplanıyor olması, Türkiye ve Türki cumhuriyetler üzerine bu konuda çalışma yapılması ve bu yöntemler bütünüyle sürdürülebilir kalkınma performansının ilk kez hesaplanması çalışma aracılığıyla literatüre yapılmış katkılardır.
Human societies face existential challenges on multiple fronts: climate change, biodiversity loss, altered biogeochemical flows, social unrest and injustices. Innovative solutions are needed to shift current trajectories towards a sustainable and just future. ‘Futures thinking’ enables people to explore and articulate alternative futures and find pathways towards these desired futures. Indigenous people have the potential to make significant contributions to futures thinking because of their/our distinctive perspectives: the viewpoint of already living in a post-apocalyptic world in the context of colonisation, unique knowledges, worldviews, and perspectives on time, as well as significant contributions to safeguarding biological and cultural diversity. Here we take an innovation-seeking and systematic approach to (1) identify patterns and processes in futures thinking with, for, and by Indigenous people; (2) highlight innovative approaches; (3) bring together diverse and sector-specific terminology; and (4) foreground emerging strengths and weaknesses. We identified four framings of Indigenous futures thinking: Adaptation-oriented, Participatory, Culturally-grounded, and Indigenising. Factors contributing to innovation include strong involvement of Indigenous people in the research team, co-design, and authorship, using Indigenous methodologies, cultural protocols, and explicitly employing decolonisation and trauma-informed approaches. We spotlight the challenges of conducting an exhaustive literature review in an emerging field with inconsistent terminology (e.g., capturing regions where Indigeneity is contested). We also create a living glossary of terms to aid other researchers and communities in using and refining the suite of methods identified here, with the aim of stimulating further innovations in this field.
This paper uses the metaphor of the musical jam to identify a working set of holistic core guidelines and norms useful for transformation catalysts—and participants in transformation systems who are collectively stewarding organizing purposeful, whole system transformative change. Since purposeful whole system change involves bringing together actors and initiatives outside the context of conventional hierarchical organizations, it requires a set of skills and design guidelines associated with musical jams. Jams are musical sessions that enable musicians who do not necessarily play together as a formal group to produce good music over significant periods of time when certain norms are followed. Similarly, system change makers, operate in systems where change agents and initiatives voluntarily come together around (emergent) shared aspirations and actions. Doing that well means that transformation catalysts need to employ a constellation of key skills synthesized here as improvisation, stewardship, pattern recognition, collaboration, connection, generativity, and presence.
Environmental problems such as global warming, increasing world population, decreasing natural resources, rapid industrialization, decreasing biological diversity, and air pollution negatively affect the life standards of future generations and threaten sustainable life. Under these circumstances, it is impossible for organizations to be detached from society and remain insensitive to these issues. Corporate and institutional activities should not be allowed to disrupt the ecological balance, they should contribute to maintaining this balance. On the other hand, women's involvement and contribution in business life leads to economic growth and human development. It is a common problem in developed and developing countries that the role of women is secondary in the labor market and in the society despite the economic value of women's labor in the development of world economy. In this study, it is predicted that preventing gender inequality will help organizations reach their sustainability goals; and the effect of gender inequality on corporate sustainability is investigated.
After the Great Financial Crisis, economic theory was fiercely criticized from both outside and inside the discipline for being incapable of explaining a crisis of such magnitude. Slowly but persistently, new strands of economic thought are developing, to replace the old-fashioned neoclassical economic theory, which have a common characteristic: they are better suited to help understand the real-world economy. This book explores the key tenets and applications of these. This book opens with an explanation of the “real world” approach to economics in which theoretical models resemble real-world situations, realistic assumptions are made, and factors such as uncertainty, coordination problems, and bounded rationality are incorporated. Additionally, this book explores the ramifications of considering the economy as both a dynamic system - with a past, present, and future - and a complex one. These theoretical precepts of the real-world economy are then applied to some of the most pressing economic issues facing the world today including ecological sustainability, the rise of corporate power, the growing dominance of the financial world, and rising unemployment, poverty, and inequality. In each case, this book reveals the insights of the shortcomings of the neoclassical approach which fails to illuminate the complexities behind each issue. It is demonstrated that, by contrast, adopting an approach grounded in the real world has the power to produce policy proposals to help tackle these problems. This book is essential reading for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the economy, including readers from economics and across the social sciences.
The Anthropocene is the present time of human-caused accelerating global change, and new forms of Anthropocene risk are emerging that society has hitherto never experienced. Science and policy are grappling with the temporal and spatial magnitude of these changes, as well as the diminishing margin between science and policy itself. However, there is a gap in the transparency — and perhaps even in the awareness — of the profound role that Anthropocene science plays in shaping the structure and possibility of our future world. In this work, we explore three broad categories of Anthropocene science, including international energy scenarios, climate change projections, and the possibility of social collapse. These cases exemplify three key features of Anthropocene science: worlding capacity, values shaping what is possible, and refusal to consider all options. We discuss how Anthropocene science modulates new risks and systematically, though perhaps inadvertently, entrains certain social-ecological futures. We find that clarity in these three attributes of Anthropocene science could enhance its integrity and build trust, not least in the arena of public policy. We conclude with recommendations for improving the interpretability and scope of Anthropocene science in the context of a growing urgency for accurate information to inform our collective future.
Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester
carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers
worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted
to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based
ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases
for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns
about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.
Abstract Assessments of global coal, oil, and natural gas occurrences usually focus on conventional hydrocarbon reserves, i.e. those occurrences that can be exploited with current technology and present market conditions. The focus on reserves seriously underestimates long-term global hydrocarbon availability. Greenhouse gas emissions based on these estimates may convey the message that the world is running out of fossil fuels, and as a result, emissions would be reduced automatically. If the vast unconventional hydrocarbon occurrences are included in the resource estimates and historically observed rates of technology change are applied to their mobilization, the potential accessibility of fossil sources increases dramatically with long-term production costs that are not significantly higher than present market prices. Although the geographical hydrocarbon resource distribution varies significantly, a regional breakdown for 11 world regions indicates that neither hydrocarbon resource availability nor costs are likely to become forces that automatically would help wean the global energy system from the use of fossil fuel during the next century.
Sustainable development has been defined by political and corporate leaders as the combination of environmental protection
and economic growth. As a result, the concept of eco-efficiency has been promoted as the primary tool for achieving industrial
sustainability.
However, there are at least four reasons why technological improvements in eco-efficiency alone will be insufficient to bring
about a transition to sustainability. First, considering that the very foundations of western industrial societies are based
on the exploitation of non-renewable minerals and fuels, it will be extremely difficult to switch to an industrial and economic
system based solely on renewable resources. Clearly, the continuing use of non-renewables is inherently unsustainable because
of finite material supplies and the fact that 100% recycling is impossible. Second, given the limited supply of non-renewable
fuels, long-term sustainability can only be guaranteed if all energy is derived directly or indirectly from the sun. However,
if the current U.S. energy demand would have to be supplied solely from solar sources, a wide range of serious and unavoidable
negative environmental impacts are likely to result. Third, even the best of human ingenuity and the greatest technological
optimism are bounded by the second law of thermodynamics, which dictates that all industrial and economic activities have
unavoidable negative environmental consequences. Finally, improvements in eco-efficiency alone will not guarantee a reduction
in the total environmental impact if economic growth is allowed to continue. Unless growth in both population and consumption
is restrained, these technological improvements only delay the onset of negative consequences that, as a result, will have
increased in severity, thereby reducing our freedom to choose satisfying solutions.
Integrated global models (IGMs) attempt to build quantitative understanding of the complex, dynamic history and future of human–environment interactions at the global scale. There is now a 30 year history of this approach. Over this period, computer simulation modeling has become a well-accepted technique in scientific analysis, but truly integrated simulation models — those that deal with the dynamics of both the natural and human components of the system and their interactions — are still relatively rare, and those that do this at the global scale are even rarer. This paper is a survey of past experience with IGMs to serve as the basis for discussion about their role in the IHOPE project. We analyze seven IGMs in some detail, comparing and contrasting their characteristics, performance, and limitations. The integrated global data base that IHOPE will create can greatly spur the development, testing and application of IGMs. At the same time, the development of IGMs can greatly facilitate thinking about what data needs to be collected. IGMs therefore will play a central role in the IHOPE project and deserve careful consideration.
Stabilizing the carbon dioxide–induced component of climate change is an energy problem. Establishment of a course toward
such stabilization will require the development within the coming decades of primary energy sources that do not emit carbon
dioxide to the atmosphere, in addition to efforts to reduce end-use energy demand. Mid-century primary power requirements
that are free of carbon dioxide emissions could be several times what we now derive from fossil fuels (∼1013 watts), even with improvements in energy efficiency. Here we survey possible future energy sources, evaluated for their capability
to supply massive amounts of carbon emission–free energy and for their potential for large-scale commercialization. Possible
candidates for primary energy sources include terrestrial solar and wind energy, solar power satellites, biomass, nuclear
fission, nuclear fusion, fission-fusion hybrids, and fossil fuels from which carbon has been sequestered. Non–primary power
technologies that could contribute to climate stabilization include efficiency improvements, hydrogen production, storage
and transport, superconducting global electric grids, and geoengineering. All of these approaches currently have severe deficiencies
that limit their ability to stabilize global climate. We conclude that a broad range of intensive research and development
is urgently needed to produce technological options that can allow both climate stabilization and economic development.
CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y(-1) for 1990-1999 to >3% y(-1) for 2000-2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the world's population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity.
Sequel to The limits to growth this book presents a renewed and refined version of the 1972 assessment and warnings. Better data, improved modelling and 20 yr of hindsight lead the authors to conclude that many resource and pollution flows are now no longer approaching the limits. Adopting a systems viewpoint and using the World3 model it is shown that mankind has a choice, and must make it soon. The choice is between allowing development to continue as it is and suffer global collapse, or take action to secure a sustainable future. The authors stress a sustainable future is technically and economically feasible, if growth in material consumption and population are eased down and there is a drastic increase in the efficiency of use of materials and energy. Chapters consider: overshoot; exponential growth; the limits (sources and sinks); dynamics of growth in a finite world; back from beyond the limits (the ozone story); technology, markets, and overshoot; transitions to a sustainable system; overshoot but not collapse. -C.J.Barrow
In this paper we discuss verification and validation of simulation models. Four different approaches to deciding model validity are described; two different paradigms that relate verification and validation to the model development process are presented; various validation techniques are defined; conceptual model validity, model verification, operational validity, and data validity are discussed; a way to document results is given; a recommended procedure for model validation is presented; and model accreditation is briefly discussed.
Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book is the first to give a comprehensive description of the causes and impacts of technological change and how they relate to global environmental change. Written for specialists and nonspecialists alike, it will be useful for researchers and professors, as a textbook for graduate students, for people engaged in long-term policy planning in industry (strategic planning departments) and government (R & D and technology ministries, environment ministries), for environmental activists (NGOs), and for the wider public interested in history, technology, or environmental issues.
This paper briefly outlines the basic science on climate change, as well as the IPCC assessments on emissions scenarios and climate impacts, to provide a context for the topic of key vulnerabilities to climate change. A conceptual overview of "dangerous" climate change issues and the roles of scientists and policy makers in this complex scientific and policy arena are suggested, based on literature and recent IPCC work in progress. Literature on assessments of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" with the climate system is summarized, with emphasis on recent probabilistic analyses.
Over the last 25 yr, considerable debate has continued about the future supply of fossil fuel. On one side are those who believe we are rapidly depleting resources and that the resulting shortages will have a profound impact on society. On the other side are those who see no impending crisis because long-term trends are for cheaper prices despite rising production. The concepts of resources and reserves have historically created considerable misunderstanding in the minds of many nongeologists. Hubbert-type predictions of energy production assume that there is a finite supply of energy that is measurable; however, estimates of resources and reserves are inventories of the amounts of a fossil fuel perceived to be available over some future period of time. As those resources/reserves are depleted over time, additional amounts of fossil fuels are inventoried. Throughout most of this century, for example, crude oil reserves in the United States have represented a 10-14-yr supply. For the last 50 yr, resource crude oil estimates have represented about a 60-70-yr supply for the United States. Division of reserve or resource estimates by current or projected annual consumption therefore is circular in reasoning and can lead to highly erroneous conclusions. Production histories of fossil fuels are driven more by demand than by the geologic abundance of the resource. Examination of some energy resources with well-documented histories leads to two conceptual models that relate production to price. The closed-market model assumes that there is only one source of energy available. Although the price initially may fall because of economies of scale long term, prices rise as the energy source is depleted and it becomes progressively more expensive to extract. By contrast, the open-market model assumes that there is a variety of available energy sources and that competition among them leads to long-term stable or falling prices. At the moment, the United States and the world approximate the open-market model, but in the long run the supply of fossil fuel is finite, and prices inevitably will rise unless alternate energy sources substitute for fossil energy supplies; however, there appears little reason to suspect that long-term price trends will rise significantly over the next few decades.
Natural resource consumption has increased considerably in the past 200 years despite more efficient technology advancements. This correlation between increased natural resource consumption and increased efficiency is known as Jevons’ Paradox. Since all the inputs to economic production come from the environment, increased resource consumption and ecosystem destruction should be of concern. Furthermore, the expenditure of natural resources to provide energy and other consumer goods is an irreversible process, worsening the human condition instead of improving human welfare as neoclassical theory would have one to believe. Therefore, sustainable development policies need to be considered to end the continued excess consumption, beyond sustainable levels, of natural resources and the potential resulting conflicts. To design environmentally sustainable policies, the effect of economic activity, of resource utilization, and increased efficiency must be understood. In this paper, we attempt to illustrate how human consumption of natural resources alters the natural state of the economy and the environment. Further, using energy data from the Energy Information Administration we develop models that provide some empirical support that Jevons’ Paradox may exist on a macro level. Finally, we examine the resulting policy implications and the applications for an ecological economic approach.
This article highlights the strength of the basic system dynamics tools (system structure, unquantified variables, the reference mode, and leverage points) by testing the original World2 (1970) and World3 (1972) analyses against 30 years of history. Critical feedback structures in those models are revisited in the context of the current ‘sustainable development’ agenda. Time cannot yet confirm or reject the “;overshoot and collapse” reference mode of behaviour for the standard world-model run, but the tendencies and pressures that produced it still persist. The article closes with the identification of possible leverage points for attaining sustainable development in the expected fields of education, eco-efficiency, and resource management and energy policies, and speculates on possible others that the new millennium may offer. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The world's production of conventional hydrocarbons will soon decline. Hydrocarbon shortages are inevitable unless radical changes occur in demand, or in the supply of non-conventional hydrocarbons. The details are as follows:Global conventional oil supply is currently at political risk. This is because the sum of conventional oil production from all countries in the world, except the five main Middle-East suppliers, is near the maximum set by physical resource limits. Should Middle-East suppliers decide to substantially curtail supply, the shortfall cannot be replaced by conventional oil from other sources.World conventional oil supply will soon be at physical risk. The Middle-East countries have only little spare operational capacity, and this will be increasingly called upon as oil production declines elsewhere. Large investments in Middle-East production, if they occur, could raise output, but only to a limited extent. (A partial exception is Iraq, but even here, there would be significant delays before prospects are confirmed, and infrastructure is in place.) If demand is maintained, and if large investments in Middle-East capacity are not made, the world will face the prospect of oil shortages in the near term.Even with large investments, resource limits will force Middle-East production to decline fairly soon, and hence also global conventional oil production. The date of this resource-limited global peak depends on the size of Middle-East reserves, which are poorly known, and unreliably reported. Best estimates put the physical peak of global conventional oil production between 5 and 10 years from now.The world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil, and various oil substitutes. But the rapidity of the decline in the production of conventional oil makes it probable that these non-conventional sources cannot come on-stream fast enough to fully compensate. The result will be a sustained global oil shortage.For conventional gas, the world's original endowment is probably about the same, in energy terms, as its endowment of conventional oil. Since less gas has been used so far compared to oil, the world will turn increasingly to gas as oil declines. But the global peak in conventional gas production is already in sight, in perhaps 20 years, and hence the global peak of all hydrocarbons (oil plus gas) is likely to be in about 10 or so years.
This paper argues that perceptual distortions and prevailing economic rationality, far from encouraging investment in natural capital, actually accelerate the depletion of natural capital stocks. Moreover, conventional monetary analyses cannot detect the problem. This paper therefore makes the case for direct biophysical measurement of relevant stocks and flows, and uses for this purpose the ecological footprint concept. To develop the argument, the paper elaborates the natural capital concept and asserts the need of investing in natural capital to compensate for net losses. It shows how the ecological footprint can be used as a biophysical measure for such capital, and applies this concept as an analytical tool for examining the barriers to investing in natural capital. It picks four issues from a rough taxonomy of barriers and discusses them from an ecological footprint perspective: it shows why marginal prices cannot reflect ecological necessities; how interregional risk pooling encourages resource liquidation; how present terms of trade undermine both local and global ecological stability; and how efficiency strategies may actually accelerate resource throughput. Affirming the necessity of biophysical approaches for exploring the sustainability implications of basic ecological and thermodynamic principles, it draws lessons for current development.
This paper challenges the view that improving the efficiency of energy use will lead to a reduction in national energy consumption, and hence is an effective policy for reducing national CO2 emissions. It argues that improving energy efficiency lowers the implicit price of energy and hence make its use more affordable, thus leading to greater use—an effect termed the ‘rebound’ or ‘takeback’ effect. The paper presents the views of economists, as well as green critics of ‘the gospel of efficiency’. The paper argues that a more effective CO2 policy is to concentrate on shifting to non-fossil fuels, like renewables, subsidized through a carbon tax. Ultimately what is needed, to limit energy consumption, is energy sufficiency (or conservation) rather than energy efficiency.
Environmental disasters. Terrorist wars. Energy scarcity. Economic failure. Is this the world's inevitable fate, a downward spiral that ultimately spells the collapse of societies? Perhaps, says acclaimed author Thomas Homer-Dixon - or perhaps these crises can actually lead to renewal for ourselves and planet earth. The Upside of Down takes the reader on a mind-stretching tour of societies' management, or mismanagement, of disasters over time. From the demise of ancient Rome to contemporary climate change, this spellbinding book analyzes what happens when multiple crises compound to cause what the author calls "synchronous failure." But, crisis doesn't have to mean total global calamity. Through catagenesis, or creative, bold reform in the wake of breakdown, it is possible to reinvent our future. Drawing on the worlds of archeology, poetry, politics, science, and economics, The Upside of Down is certain to provoke controversy and stir imaginations across the globe. The author's wide-ranging expertise makes his insights and proposals particularly acute, as people of all nations try to grapple with how we can survive tomorrow's inevitable shocks to our global system. There is no guarantee of success, but there are ways to begin thinking about a better world, and The Upside of Down is the ideal place to start thinking.
Propuestas para el diseño de modelos y la medición de la sustentabilidad, planteadas con base en un estudio de caso nacional desarrollado durante cuatro años en Escocia.
Traditional growth theory emphasizes the incentives for capital accumulation rather than technological progress. Innovation is treated as an exogenous process or a by-product of investment in machinery and equipment. Grossman and Helpman develop a unique approach in which innovation is viewed as a deliberate outgrowth of investments in industrial research by forward-looking, profit-seeking agents.
Rapid global economic growth, centred in Asia but now spread across the world, is driving rapid greenhouse-gas emissions growth, making earlier projections unrealistic. This paper develops new, illustrative business-as-usual projections for carbon dioxide (CO) from fossil fuels and other sources and for non-CO greenhouse gases. Making adjustments to 2007 World Energy Outlook projections to reflect more fully recent trends, we project annual emissions by 2030 to be almost double current volumes, 11 per cent higher than in the most pessimistic scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and at a level reached only in 2050 in the business-as-usual scenario used by the Stern Review. This has major implications for the global approach to climate-change mitigation. The required effort is much larger than implicit in the IPCC data informing the current international climate negotiations. Large cuts in developed country emissions will be required, and significant deviations from baselines will be required in developing countries by 2020. It is hard to see how the required cuts could be achieved without all major developing as well as developed countries adopting economy-wide policies.
At present, the most accurate knowledge about climate sensitivity is based on data from the earth's history, and this evidence reveals that small forces, maintained long enough, can cause large climate change. Human-made forces, especially greenhouse gases, soot and other small particles, now exceed natural forces, and the world has begun to warm at a rate predicted by climate models. The stability of the great ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica and the need to preserve global coastlines set a low limit on the global warming that will constitute "dangerous anthropogenic interference" with climate. Halting global warming requires urgent, unprecedented international cooperation, but the needed actions are feasible and have additional benefits for human health, agriculture and the environment.
Increasing energy use, climate change, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels make switching to low-carbon fuels a high priority. Biofuels are a potential low-carbon energy
source, but whether biofuels offer carbon savings depends on how they are produced. Converting rainforests, peatlands, savannas,
or grasslands to produce food crop–based biofuels in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the United States creates a “biofuel carbon
debt” by releasing 17 to 420 times more CO2 than the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions that these biofuels would provide by displacing fossil fuels. In contrast,
biofuels made from waste biomass or from biomass grown on degraded and abandoned agricultural lands planted with perennials
incur little or no carbon debt and can offer immediate and sustained GHG advantages.
Facing the Future: Mastering the Probable and Managing the Unpredictable. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Develop-ment)
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Limits of a Modern World: A Study of the Limits to Growth Debate Evaluating past forecasts: reflections on one critique of The Limits to Growth Sustainability or Collapse? An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth
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The Prince Philip Lecture with HRH Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, in the Chair
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