Article

A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change, 18, 397-411

Authors:
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the author.

Abstract

In 1972, the Club of Rome's infamous report “The Limits to Growth” [Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., Behrens_III, W. W. (1972). The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. Universe Books, New York] presented some challenging scenarios for global sustainability, based on a system dynamics computer model to simulate the interactions of five global economic subsystems, namely: population, food production, industrial production, pollution, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. Contrary to popular belief, The Limits to Growth scenarios by the team of analysts from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology did not predict world collapse by the end of the 20th century. This paper focuses on a comparison of recently collated historical data for 1970–2000 with scenarios presented in the Limits to Growth. The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compare favorably with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the “standard run” scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st century. The data do not compare well with other scenarios involving comprehensive use of technology or stabilizing behaviour and policies. The results indicate the particular importance of understanding and controlling global pollution.

No full-text available

Request Full-text Paper PDF

To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the author.

... Scientifically, World3 introduced Jay Forrestor's 7 newly established computational approach of system dynamics modeling and quantitative scenario analysis into the environmental discipline. By linking the world economy with the environment, it was the first integrated global model to analyze the impacts of human activities in deterioration of environment or climate change (Costanza et al. 2007;Turner, 2008). It was the first time that system dynamics was used in environment and sustainability analysis. ...
... Graham Turner (2008) analyzed and tested change in propositions and projections made by "TLtG" by publishing research output through an article "A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality." The salient message from the Limits to Growth modeling was that continued growth in the global economy would lead to planetary limits being exceeded sometime in the 21st century, most likely resulting in the collapse of the population and economic system; but also that collapse could be avoided with a combination of early changes in behavior, policy and technology. ...
... Despite these major contributions, and dire warnings of "overshot and collapse," the Limits to Growth recommendations on fundamental changes of policy for sustainability have not taken as the authors recently acknowledge (Meadows et al., 2004a). Turner (2008) identified four key elements to understand the constraints and behaviors of the world system. The first involves the existence of feedback loops, both positive and negative. ...
Thesis
Full-text available
This research delivers a cohesive system dynamic model for the assessment of sustainable development indicators, which will assist to explore the alternative scenarios of access to market, human well-being, environmental degradation, environmental balance, sustainability, and quality of life. This model is developed through the interaction of three pillars of sustainable development: social, economic, and environment. Since Nepal has adopted the agenda for sustainable development in 2003, this study helps policy makers and decision makers for sustainable development planning in Nepal. The initial simulation output shows that quality of life expands exponentially after 20 years in the modeling period. Further, the environment will be balanced within 40 years of the modeling period, but, because of increase in pollution and urbanization, the degree of environmental degradation also exhibits exponential growth. Therefore, the government of Nepal should adopt the appropriate policy measures to reduce the environmental degradation and its impacts on human beings and ecosystem. In addition, this model creates wider space for policy makers, professionals, academicians, and researchers to analyze the interconnectedness of sustainable development indicators and their future prospects.
... The publication of the modelling report spurred much debate and criticism following its conclusion that without significant efforts to enact change, 'business as usual' would lead to "sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity" (Meadows et al. 1972, p23). Despite heavy criticism from numerous quarters since its conception, the model has arguably withstood the test of time, with several recent studies still maintaining the validity of its outputs (Turner 2008;Bardi 2011;Turner 2012Turner , 2014Randers 2012a;Pasqualino et al. 2015). ...
... Thus whilst there are genuine criticisms to be made about the model and report, it seems a large portion of this criticism is based upon misrepresentation or misunderstanding (Randers 2012b; Jackson and Webster 2016; Lane 2019). The world model employed in LtG has gained renewed interest more recently, with a number of authors arguing that its results stand up against historical data, nearly 50 years after its creation (Simmons 2000;Myrtveit 2005;Turner 2008Turner , 2014Randers 2012a;Hall and Day 2009). There is evidence too of consideration of LtG and related literature from a policy perspective, with the establishment of the 'All Party Parliamentary Group on the Limits to Growth' in the UK in 2016 (Jackson and Webster 2016), and the UN's brief consideration of 'planetary boundaries' at the 2012 Rio Earth Summit (UN 2012b). ...
... Coupled with interest in the discourse surrounding the report and model (Bardi 2011;Gómez-Baggethun and Naredo 2015;Eastin et al. 2011), and more technical aspects surrounding the World3 model (Pasqualino et al. 2015;Ansell and Cayzer 2018), it seems the model maintains a clear relevance to contemporary research. Turner (2008) compares historical data to three scenarios from the original 1972 ...
Thesis
Full-text available
Despite its ubiquity urban sustainability is a contested concept with no widely accepted definition of what it is, or what it should look like. This lack of consensus surrounding meaning presents barriers to coherent operationalisation to bring about positive change, leading to the dominance of undertheorised indicator based approaches. Such approaches present various issues including the marginalisation of less quantifiable aspects, and the erasure of holism and interaction between relevant phenomena. This thesis seeks to develop a deeper understanding of urban sustainability, and how it can be operationalised to explore coherent ways of improving upon it. These issues are explored in three distinct research streams, centred around the descriptors of ‘define, measure, model’. Initially urban sustainability is decomposed into its two constituent terms which are reviewed in isolation, in reference to the ‘fractures’ within the bodies of literature. An integrative review utilising backward snowballing probes the origins of the three pillar paradigm of sustainability with reference to the early literature. A semi-systematic review then explores the disciplinary divide between urban studies and urban science drawing out common themes that emerge across the two. This literature analysis is followed by an exploration, through physical analytical techniques, of thermodynamic entropy as a ‘physical basis’ for measuring unsustainability. Following this, a prototype urban integrated assessment model is developed through the adaptation of Meadows et al. (2005)’s World3 model. Here the paradigm of system dynamics is investigated as a useful frame for emphasising the interaction and feedback between relevant phenomena. Whilst starting from a post-positivist research frame attempting to ‘define, measure, and model’, an epistemological shift was made within this work to a more interpretivist approach using the language of ‘understanding’; this forms an underlying meta-narrative.
... Since it has not been possible to price the value of a declining resource [21,22], landfilling will often be the cheapest management solution for these waste problems. Landfills are the antithesis of circularity, representing the rather embarrassing results of most countries' linear economies, conspicuous consumption and cavalier use of finite resources [23][24][25]. Moreover, in addition to systemic issues connected with resources, there are other localised problems, for example, the creation of unhygienic conditions detrimental to public health, a source of food for stray animals and wildlife, the possibility of poor groundwater quality in the vicinity of a landfill and physical safety issues for people living in their locale. ...
... While self-regulation may be less onerous for the consumer, a rejection notice on a recycling bin ( Figure 5, above) goes very little further, and a penalty system is probably needed to ensure that violations are minimised and the practice of clean separation becomes habitual. Indeed, for the eminently recyclable materials involving metals and glass, a participation rate which is as purposeful and intense as possessing a driving licence should be enforced, though that position in many non-European western countries such as Australia and the USA may not be reached until material scarcity begins to be felt [23][24][25]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Landfills have been considered the most convenient approach for dealing with waste from time immemorial, even though some have led to disasters of catastrophic proportions. Moreover, recent findings by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that the decomposing fraction of landfill waste that generates greenhouse gases (GHGs) may not be adequately accounted for and could become a critical issue in our effort to restrict atmospheric temperature increases to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. (According to the IPCC, the maximum atmospheric temperature rise is a factor of cumulative net CO2 emissions as well as net non-CO2 radiative forcing. These anthropogenic forcing agents include methane, nitrous oxide and other trace gases from landfill sites. In that sense, landfills can tip the balance from 1.5 towards 2 degrees of warming). This paper draws on data from a number of countries for review and is a timely reminder that society needs to develop a more environmentally and socially sensitive set of methods that could ultimately replace landfills. The paper first examines problems connected with landfills and evaluates alternatives such as incineration, biomass burning and mechanical biological treatment, which generally present their own problems. The paper then considers the range of materials conventionally dispatched to landfill, dealing with them in the context of a zero-waste philosophy. The conclusions propose more disciplined waste management to embrace collective accountability, wherein those who create the waste—chiefly, households and businesses—would be expected to deal with it responsibly. With attitudinal changes and education, supported by regulatory measures, it should be possible to reach the long-term objective of zero waste and the retirement of the traditional landfill.
... Quantitative comparisons between LtG scenarios and empirical data were conducted by Turner (2008Turner ( , 2012Turner ( , 2014. He compared global observed data for the LtG variables with 3 of the 12 scenarios from the first book: BAU, CT, and SW. ...
... To quantify how closely the LtG scenarios compare with observed data, the same two measures as in Turner (2008) were used: ...
Article
In the 1972 bestseller Limits to Growth (LtG), the authors concluded that, if global society kept pursuing economic growth, it would experience a decline in food production, industrial output, and ultimately population, within this century. The LtG authors used a system dynamics model to study interactions between global variables, varying model assumptions to generate different scenarios. Previous empirical‐data comparisons since then by Turner showed closest alignment with a scenario that ended in collapse. This research constitutes a data update to LtG, by examining to what extent empirical data aligned with four LtG scenarios spanning a range of technological, resource, and societal assumptions. The research benefited from improved data availability since the previous updates and included a scenario and two variables that had not been part of previous comparisons. The two scenarios aligning most closely with observed data indicate a halt in welfare, food, and industrial production over the next decade or so, which puts into question the suitability of continuous economic growth as humanity's goal in the twenty‐first century. Both scenarios also indicate subsequent declines in these variables, but only one—where declines are caused by pollution—depicts a collapse. The scenario that aligned most closely in earlier comparisons was not amongst the two closest aligning scenarios in this research. The scenario with the smallest declines aligned least with empirical data; however, absolute differences were often not yet large. The four scenarios diverge significantly more after 2020, suggesting that the window to align with this last scenario is closing.
... The sustainable case manages to reach a steady state for the system with little loss of life, but it required parameter choices that in the real world would correspond to drastic action to curtail pollution and population growth. Given its dire outlook, the LTG study has received significant amount of criticism from economists (Bardi, 2011), but in recent years the standard run of the model has been found to match well historical trajectories (Turner, 2008). ...
... Such a set of equations constitutes a dynamical system that attempts to capture important feedbacks present in socio-environmental systems. Recent research by Turner (2008) has compared the trajectories from Meadows et al. (1972) with real data over a span of 30 years. The comparison shows a reasonably good fit despite the initial modelling e↵ort not aiming to be predictive but only precautionary. ...
Thesis
The dynamics and structure of societies have long been a puzzle to archaeologists, historians and social scientists in general. In particular, increases in social inequality and the possibility of societal collapse are two deeply distressing prospects for any society. In this three paper thesis we provide two contributions to the literature of societal collapse and one regarding the emergence of social inequality. In the first article we present a mathematical model of Easter Island and show that the collapse can be modelled as a supercritical Hopf bifurcation where the critical parameter is the harvesting rate of resources. This suggests an universal mechanism by which societal collapse can be understood quantitatively. In addition, we show that societies coupled together can be more robust against collapse, which means that, within a larger region of parameter space, a sustainable outcome can occur for both societies than in the case when the societies are isolated. In particular, if at least one society has a harvesting rate below the critical value, then collapse can be prevented for the entire system. In the second article we build a dynamical system model of the Maya civilisation taking into account the main specialisations of the population: swidden and intensive agriculturalists, and monument builders. The archaeological record for population growth and monument construction is accurately reproduced, with the model calibration close to archaeologically determined values for the parameters. We show that if, after the year 550 CE, a significant part of each new generation moved from swidden to using intensive agricultural methods, then this would explain the rapid population growth and the subsequent collapse. This conclusion is reached irrespective of the impact of drought. Furthermore, the model is shown to also undergo a supercritical Hopf bifurcation when the harvesting rate is high. An extensive sensitivity analysis indicates that the model predictions are robust under parameter changes, which means that the period around the year 550 CE played a key role in the collapse. In the third article we address the issue of social inequality by considering games on networks. In contrast to large parts of the literature, we investigate for what network structure a system of linked agents can exhibit maximally rational strategic behaviour. The agent’s strategies are quantified through the quantal response equilibrium, and the network is optimised so that the strategies are as close as possible to the Nash equilibrium. Previous work has argued that a scale-free topology maximises system rationality. In contrast, we show that a core-periphery structure emerges, where a small set of nodes enjoy higher degrees than the majority, which are leaf nodes. In symmetric games the difference in degrees between the two node types are stark, whereas in asymmetric games the difference is less notable. Taken together, the different parts of this thesis highlight and explain dynamical and large-scale structural features in societies as seen throughout the history of the world. Thus, this work can help deepen our understanding of complex social phenomena.
... In the early decades of the IAMs' existence, it was doubted that they were useful tools for studying, for example, the effects of climate change or the evolution of energy resources, with the World3 model even being heavily criticized [34]. However, more than 30 years later, it has been observed that the historical data are largely in line with those obtained in the World3 base scenario [35]. In recent years, despite continuing to receive criticism [36], IAMs have been widely accepted and are seen as one of the best tools for analyzing the effects of climate change [19]. ...
Article
Full-text available
The climate change that is currently occurring is due to the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere as a result of human activity. The large number of factors and variables that directly or indirectly affect GHG emissions, as well as the multiple and complex relationships between them, makes it difficult to make decisions on the best measures to be adopted to slow down or mitigate climate change and to analyze the consequences that each decision entails. This has led to the development of complex simulation models called Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or Energy-Economy-Environment Models (E3 models), with a particular focus on climate change. The development and use of these models to guide policy decisions on climate change has grown very significantly in recent years, as evidenced by the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper is a panoramic review of the main existing IAMs and analyzes their main characteristics. The paper focuses especially on the analysis of the limitations of the current IAMs, which should mark the future developments of these tools.
... NhiÒu m« h×nh t¨ng trëng kh«ng nh÷ng kh«ng ®em ®Õn cho con ngêi cuéc sèng tèt ®Ñp mµ tr¸i l¹i cßn ®Ó l¹i nh÷ng hËu qu ¶ kh«ng tèt, c¸c thÕ hÖ t¬ng lai cã thÓ ph ¶i g¸nh chÞu vÒ m«i trêng, gia t¨ng nghÌo ®ãi vµ bÊt b×nh ®¼ng (Turner, 2008). NhiÒu kh¸i niÖm t¨ng trëng tiªu cùc ®îc ®Ò cËp nh sù xuèng cÊp (Demaria vµ céng sù, 2013), sù kÕt thóc t¨ng trëng (Heinberg, 2011), hoAEc sù ®×nh trÖ (Teulings vµ Baldwin, 2014). ...
... extreme weather events, bushfires, droughts, floods, glacier melting, sea level rise, marine heatwaves). In retrospect, even the dire warnings of the 1970s -dismissed as alarmism and infamously labelled as an eco-scam (Bailey 1993) -may have been imprecise but turned out to contain substantial truths (Meadows et al. 2005, Turner 2008, Ehrlich & Ehrlich 2013, Nekola et al. 2013, Running 2013. ...
Presentation
Full-text available
Una presentazione video in italiano (20 min 56 sec) basata sull'articolo: Bearzi G (2020) Marine biology in a violated planet: from science to conscience. Ethics in Science and Environmental Politics 20, 1-13. https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/esep/v20/p1-13/
... They are leading us toward global environmental and economic collapse -but there may still be time to address these problems and soften their impact." A comparison of the predictions of the first report with the historical data for the period 1970-2000 showed [53] that "The data compare favorably with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the 'standard run' scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st century." Considering all of our experiences and the scientific knowledge available, the authors of this book believe that there are specific natural barriers that limit the planet's economic expansion. ...
Book
Full-text available
How the marriage of Industry 4.0 and the Circular Economy can radically transform waste management—and our world Do we really have to make a choice between a wasteless and nonproductive world or a wasteful and ultimately self-destructive one? Futurist and world-renowned waste management scientist Antonis Mavropoulos and sustainable business developer and digital strategist Anders Nilsen respond with a ringing and optimistic “No!” They explore the Earth-changing potential of a happy (and wasteless) marriage between Industry 4.0 and a Circular Economy that could—with properly reshaped waste management practices—deliver transformative environmental, health, and societal benefits. This book is about the possibility of a brand-new world and the challenges to achieve it. The fourth industrial revolution has given us innovations including robotics, artificial intelligence, 3D-printing, and biotech. By using these technologies to advance the Circular Economy—where industry produces more durable materials and runs on its own byproducts—the waste management industry will become a central element of a more sustainable world and can ensure its own, but well beyond business as usual, future. Mavropoulos and Nilsen look at how this can be achieved—a wasteless world will require more waste management—and examine obstacles and opportunities such as demographics, urbanization, global warming, and the environmental strain caused by the rise of the global middle class. · Explore the new prevention, reduction, and elimination methods transforming waste management · Comprehend and capitalize on the business implications for the sector · Understand the theory via practical examples and case studies · Appreciate the social benefits of the new approach Waste-management has always been vital for the protection of health and the environment. Now it can become a crucial role model in showing how Industry 4.0 and the Circular Economy can converge to ensure flourishing, sustainable—and much brighter—future.
... In a number of insightful, and decades ahead of their time, publications Boulding argued for recognizing the ultimately closed nature of the system and to stop pursuing economic growth at all costs (Boulding 1945(Boulding , 1949(Boulding , 1966. The Limits to Growth debate has reverberated for decades, but there can be little doubt that there is a limit to resources on 'spaceship earth' (Bardi 2011;Meadows et al. 1972;Meadows and Randers 2012;Stokey 1998;Turner 2008). Macromarketing also deals with wider systems and the use of a closed system assumption is appropriate. ...
Article
Macromarketing is definitionally concerned with systems — marketing, markets and society — and their interactions. This paper lays out a case for systems research in macromarketing, the use of methods designed to study systems. In doing so, it highlights the limitations of much micromarketing research. Macromarketing and the Journal of Macromarketing is the home of systems research in marketing. Macromarketing scholars need to increase our use of systems research methodologies. We also need to connect macromarketing to wider, particularly business, systems research. Following the calls by this Journal’s first editor George Fisk, systems research must not live in our discipline and journal alone, all social sciences need the insights of systems research and systems research needs the insights of macromarketing.
... We should note that many in the social science community have raised concerns regarding this program, arguing that FuturICT's rhetoric was reminiscent of previous failed attempts to develop 'global modeling' tools. In this respect, many attempts come to mind, not least the misinterpretations around the well-known and controversially discussed book The Limits of Growth [40]; (see however [41]), but also an ambitious project led by Karl Deutsch at WZB in Berlin in the 1980s that failed. In fact, macrosimulation acquired a really bad name in the 1980s and 1990s, especially among social scientists [42]. ...
Article
Full-text available
We present an analysis of a large emerging scientific project in the light provided by the social bubbles hypothesis (SBH) that we have introduced in earlier papers. The SBH claims that, during an innovation boom or technological revolution, strong social interactions between enthusiastic supporters weave a network of reinforcing feedbacks that leads to widespread endorsement and extraordinary commitment, beyond what would be rationalized by a standard cost–benefit analysis. By probing the (Future and Emerging Technologies) FET Flagship candidate FuturICT project, as it developed in 2010–2013, we aimed at better understanding how a favorable climate was engineered, allowing the dynamics and risk-taking behaviors to evolve. We document that significant risk-taking was indeed clearly found—especially during workshops and meetings, for instance, in the form of the time allocation of participants, who seemed not to mind their precious time being given to the project and who exhibited many signs of enthusiasm. In this sense, the FuturICT project qualifies as a social bubble in the making when considered at the group level. In contrast, risk-perception at the individual level remained high and not everyone involved shared the exuberance cultivated by the promoters of FuturICT. As a consequence, those not unified under the umbrella of the core vision built niches for themselves that were stimulating enough to stay with the project, but not on a basis of blind over-optimism. Our detailed field study shows that, when considering individuals in isolation, the characteristics associated with a social bubble can vary significantly in the presence of other factors besides exaggerated risk-taking.
... 30-31, 33). Turner (2014Turner ( , 2008 vuelve a comparar los escenarios de World-3 con la realidad y el resultado es que 40 años después, las proyecciones siguen siendo bastante acertadas para el escenario base (Business-as-usual, BAU). Turner (2014) señala que esta comparación hace que World-3 en su escenario base no debería descartarse como muchos críticos han intentado hacer y se incrementa la confianza en el modelado del escenario base. ...
... L'humanité est doté d'un capital initial de ressources non renouvelables qui alimente une production agricole, industrielle et de services, en créant au passage de la pollution, laquelle se décrit comme un élément venant diminuer la qualité (et la quantité) des ressources naturelles restantes ou l'espérance de vie. La comparaison des résultats de ce modèle avec la réalité pour les années 1970 à 2000 à été effectuée par Turner (2008) pour les variables population, production de nourriture, pollution et consommation des ressources énergétiques non-renouvelables. Cette comparaison montre un bon accord entre les résultats du modèle et la réalité pour le scénario standard, en particulier pour les variables consommation des ressources énergétiques non-renouvelables (figure 1.6) et pollution, qui suit parfaitement la courbe d'émission des gaz à effet de serre (figure 1.3) sur la même période. ...
Thesis
Dans le contexte actuel du réchauffement climatique, l’extraction de l’énergie des courants marins par des hydroliennes se doit d’intégrer le mix énergétique de demain. Ces machines étant confrontées à un environnement marin difficile, il est nécessaire de connaître leur comportement dans des conditions de fonctionnement réaliste pour garantir une utilisation optimale. Dans ces travaux, les performances d’une hydrolienne sont étudiées, quand la machine est soumise à un courant turbulent ou aux effets combinés de la houle et du courant. La représentation physique des essais à échelle réduite est d’abord abordée, en se focalisant sur la caractérisation de l’écoulement incident et ses effets sur une maquette d’hydrolienne à l’échelle 1/20. La position et le type de mesure de la vitesse amont sont discutés afin de définir avec précision ses performances et sa réponse temporelle et spectrale. Ces éléments sont essentiels dans la définition des standards de certification des modélisations expérimentales. La représentation de variations bathymétriques permet de générer des écoulements turbulents, caractérisés par le passage de structures tourbillonnaires de la taille du rotor. La réponse de la machine est déterminée de manière globale et locale, pour plusieurs positions relatives de la machine par rapport aux obstacles. Les effets combinés de la houle et du courant sur le comportement de la machine sont étudiés à partir de résultats de mesures obtenues dans trois infrastructures d’essais. Des différences significatives entre les bassins apparaissent et une discussion sur leur origine est menée.
... Zdiagnozowane w latach 70. XX w. bariery dla dalszego wzrostu cywilizacji przemysłowej (Meadows i in., 1973) pozostają w mocy (Meadows i in., 2005;Turner, 2008;Bardi, 2011). Kryzys klimatyczny, będący jednym z przejawów sięgnięcia granic wzrostu przez cywilizację, przyczynił się do intensyfikacji działań zmierzających do redukcji emisji gazów cieplarnianych. ...
... It becomes apparent that humanity's appetite for resources became too much for the planet Earth to bear (Meadows et al., 1972;Turner, 2008). Exponential population build-up combined with the global pursuit of economic growth results in the exponential growth of the demand for housing and infrastructure as well as production facilities. ...
... The Limits to Growth, also known as the Meadows Report [1], was published by the Club of Rome, in 1972. It presented a computer model developed by MIT called World3, which allowed Meadows et al. [1] to explore the relationship between five subsystems of the world economy: population, food and industrial production, pollution and consumption of non-renewable natural resources [16]. The key finding has been that unlimited growth in the economy and population would lead to a collapse of the global system by the mid to late twenty-first century [1,[17][18][19]. ...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents and explores the different Earth Observation approaches and their contribution to the achievement of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. A review on the Sustainable Development concept and its goals is presented followed by Earth Observation approaches relevant to this field, giving special attention to the contribution of Machine Learning methods and algorithms as well as their potential and capabilities to support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals. Overall, it is observed that Earth Observation plays a key role in monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals given its cost-effectiveness pertaining to data acquisition on all scales and information richness. Despite the success of Machine Learning upon Earth Observation data analysis, it is observed that performance is heavily dependent on the ability to extract and synthesise characteristics from data. Hence, a deeper and effective analysis of the available data is required to identify the strongest features and, hence, the key factors pertaining to Sustainable Development. Overall, this research provides a deeper understanding on the relation between Sustainable Development, Earth Observation and Machine Learning, and how these can support the Sustainable Development of countries and the means to find their correlations. In pursuing the Sustainable Development Goals, given the relevance and growing amount of data generated through Earth Observation, it is concluded that there is an increased need for new methods and techniques strongly suggesting the use of new Machine Learning techniques.
... Sustainability and its' sub-concepts have received considerable attention with the increasing global environmental and socio-economic awareness. In the mid-20th century, the increased use of conventional resources of energy such as fossil fuels, environment-degrading factories, and over-production leading to unconscious consumption had caused global environmental problems (Turner, 2008). As negative outcomes of unsustainable processes escalate, reformative and preventive sustainable measures are required to fix them. ...
Article
Full-text available
Sustainable living is a key concept for eco-friendly lifestyles in consumer societies. Two major sustainable living solutions are based on knowledge and product. Their roles and impacts on sustainable living are controversial. Despite offering innovative approaches to sustainability solutions, products are consumption-dependent. On the contrary, knowledge-based solutions are resource-intensive, while technically resources are limited. This research analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of knowledge-based and product-based sustainable living solutions through a survey regarding environmental sensitivity and sustainable lifestyles from a specific local market. This study highlighted IKEA as the case. From the consumer's point of view, some IKEA sustainable living dimensions are more knowledge-based, yet the rest of them are product-based. For holistic sustainable living solutions, the combination of the two is crucial. The findings of this study suggest strategies to increase individual and corporate awareness of sustainable living practices from knowledge and product perspectives. In this respect, this study is valuable for IKEA and other companies to revise their strategies in promoting sustainable living and guide sustainable consumer behavior.
... Another important influence was the System Dynamics approach by Forrester which models the nonlinear behaviour of a system with feedback loops, signal delays, and other complex behaviour. It is for example known for its application in the "Limits to Growth" model from the Club of Rome where the exponential growth of economy and population and linear growth of available resources is simulated (Turner, 2008). ...
Chapter
Agent-based modeling is a powerful technique that allows modeling social phenomena ab-initio or from first principles. In this paper, we review the history of agent-based models and their role in the social sciences. We review 62 papers and create a timeline of developments starting from 1759 and Adam Smith into the recent past of 2020 and efforts to model the Covid-19 pandemic. We reflect on model validation, different levels of model complexity, multi-scale models, and cognitive architectures. We identify key trends for the future use of agent-based modeling in the socials sciences.
... The grand challenge needs to be tackled pragmatically (Ferraro, Etzion & Gehman, 2015). The world dynamics (Forrester, 1971) and limits to growth (Meadows, Meadows, Randers & Behrens, 1972) studies and updates (Turner, 2008;Meadows & Randers, 2012;Herrington, 2021) had shown the problems with such a economic development model of market pricing in the political-economic interaction space as well as the social challenges it will throw (Hirsch, 2013). ...
Preprint
Full-text available
COVID19 crisis has brought several fervent issues related to the relationship between government, business, civil society and public to the forefront of discussion both among academicians beyond disciplinary boundaries and amidst practitioners outside their spaces of practice. In the political-economic space, the French ideal of Liberté, égalité, fraternité serves as the cornerstone and foundational principle for creation of democratic societies, nations and the world. Inequality is the biggest challenge of the 21 st century and these three ideals have failed to achieve the goals of an equitable society they espoused. This research delves into the idea of investigating the sequentially of the ideals through study of three distinct cases 1. The Supremacy clash between United States and China in Huawei case 2. The Adani Case 3. The Case of Management Profession. Based on the analysis at three levels viz, global-societal, business-societal and professional-individual, the forgotten ways of public sociality are reiterated.
... For decades, researchers have warned that the continued growth of linear production and consumption patterns poses significant threats to a sustainable future (Turner, 2008). In response, a circular transition is the pursuit of an idealized system in which businesses profit from reducing, reusing, and recycling products and materials while decreasing the overall environmental impact (de Jesus and Mendonça, 2018). ...
Article
Full-text available
Barriers to access-based consumption (ABC) have been extensively studied in different strands of literature. However, cumulative knowledge is not organized to date, and a comprehensive overview of barriers identified by empirical studies in diverse strands is lacking. Such a picture is essential for laying the ground for further change-oriented research and actual changes in practice. This article reports on the results of a systematic review on barriers to transitioning from ownership-to access-based consumption. The review focuses on the literature strands product-service systems, circular economy, sharing economy, and collaborative consumption. Through open and axial coding of 289 barriers reported in 45 empirical studies, we found 17 themes of barriers concerning consumers, business, and society. The analysis of the barriers reveals four significant insights important for the research and practitioner community: (1) the overall experience of ABC and trust mechanisms need to be better understood; (2) organizational aspects in traditional business need a system change; (3) regulation plays a fundamental role in making ABC work for business, society, and sustainability; and (4) sharing risks and experimentation for new learnings are necessary. These four major insights suggest that consumers need business and government to offer enabling conditions for ABC-spanning from raising awareness and understanding to improving user experience. Furthermore, businesses need governments to create the necessary structures to support ABC offerings-from decreasing risks to increasing incentives. How and which mechanisms can further facilitate circular behaviors is a salient topic for future investigations.
... The link between the consumption of non-renewable natural resources and other global economic subsystems, namely population, food production, industrial production, and pollution, was already described in the infamous Club of Rome's 1972 report "The limits to growth" [4]. Beyond the erroneous popular belief about a premature world collapse, the trends of the defined challenging scenarios for global sustainability indicate a significant match with the observations of the past decades [5]. It shows the obvious damaging impacts of natural resources over-consumption. ...
Thesis
Full-text available
This thesis aims at proposing an alternative definition of energy communities that leverage prosumer empowerment and mutualization of excess resources to optimize a truer reflection of electricity consumption cost. In such responsible communities, the sharing of a common infrastructure, i.e., the power grid, is also acknowledged. Non-linear network costs are thus defined, and the individual electrical loads are aggregated to evaluate the incurred costs. In addition, the members pool and share their excess energy resources, namely the photovoltaic generation and the available storage space in their batteries, for free. In particular, several collaborative scenarios of day-ahead energy consumption scheduling are designed. These scenarios use the temporal flexibility consented by prosumers and the sharing of electrical resources to define the consumption schedule that will lead to optimized global costs. Several billings are defined, each promoting different behaviors and meeting different definitions of fairness. They are studied under the angle of game theory. Nash equilibrium games are formulated, and billings are designed, some of them using concepts of coalitional game theory. Results are obtained based on benchmarks assuming residential prosumers, equipped with combinations of time flexible appliances such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, individual generation (solar panels), and battery storage systems. They show that such coordinated energy consumption scheduling is essential to prevent power consumption peaks and the related increased prices. Besides, some billings lead to undifferentiated prices, whereas other billings reward the time flexibility consented by individuals by either considering the actual mobilized flexibility or the pledged flexibility. Billing solutions assigning a proportion of the daily total cost of the whole community are computed using the framework of convex optimization. Billings distributing costs on another basis were computed by formulating suitable variational inequalities. All billing solutions are conveniently solved using distributed algorithms. Moreover, several options for coordinated investments and intraday settlement of energy exchanges are proposed to offer a complete solution of responsible energy communities.
... Remarkably, these trends follow drastically different trajectories which mark an increasing divergence over the years [3,4]. On one hand, the dramatically increasing total and per capita amount of non-renewable natural resources used for economic development indicates a strong coupling, worrying many environmental scientists who are concerned about resource depletion and environmental damage [5][6][7]. On the other hand, the MI is declining in the vast majority of national economies due to several factors such as technological advances, outsourcing of heavy industry, and the restructuring of economies toward the service sector [1,[8][9][10][11][12]. This is the so-called decoupling effect that provides empirical evidence for the lack of concern over the scarcity of natural resources, an optimism adopted by several scholars, including some Nobel laureates in economics [13,14]. ...
Article
Full-text available
With the UN indicating that climate objectives are well off track, the dependency of the economy on resources remains a crucial issue demanding holistic consideration. As a key global sustainability issue, the linkage between resource use and economic growth has long been under heated debate. The increasing amount of resources used for economic growth has elevated environmentalists’ concerns over resource scarcity and environmental impacts, suggesting the existence of coupling between resources and the economy. In contrast, the declining Material Intensity (MI)—resources needed to produce one unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—has led to optimism for many economists and decision makers with far reaching implications for resources and economic policies. Through novel divergence indicators by using long-term datasets, we find that there has been increasing divergence between total and per capita resources use and MI at both the global and the national level. This increasing divergence is due to the faster growth in the total and per capita amount of resources rather than the reduction in the amount of resources per unit of GDP (MI). These divergences indicate underappreciated challenges and opportunities for sustainable economic growth, resource management and implementation of circular economy policies. Open Access: Available here: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/3/1459
Chapter
This introductory chapter of the book has two main goals. First, we outline why a stronger connection between Biology and Mathematics (especially modeling) could provide new insights into current biological problems. Second, we map out the central theme of this monograph and the logical connections among the following chapters with each other. We believe that one of the central and most important issues of how society can survive in our fast-changing world is to understand and learn how biological systems are able to stay stable and resilient against many perturbations. Besides providing a “big picture,” an overview of some of the important aspects of ecosystem stability, we also present tools and approaches that make it accessible to the reader. We are taking examples mostly from our own research, make our models accessible, encourage further experimentation and involvement in this field. Ecosystems can teach us how resilient mechanisms can operate in a decentralized and dynamic way, driven by self-organization, which is achieved through several interacting feedback loops. Knowledge derived from biological systems has already inspired technology and arts. In our opinion, the same kind of bio-inspiration will soon influence politics, governance, economics, and other important aspects of human society as well.
Chapter
The novelty of this book is emphasized in this chapter in which the theoretical foundations of economies and Degrowth are analytically overlapped and integrated with the Transition Towns literature, to achieve a change of perspective necessary to change the collective imagination. This chapter is divided into two main parts. The first part is a debate between the Club of Rome, Serge Latouche, and the application of resilience framed as a tool to achieve the buen vivír, while the second part is intended as a new reading key and complementary to the implementation of a Degrowth society, devoted to community resilience and to the rise of homo resaliens. In this a new term, homo resaliens, was coined, discussed and defined to explain the attempt to fill a gap in the literature, integrate two existing literatures, and to strengthen the narrative framework of the concept of sense of community and related values and tools.
Article
Full-text available
The fundamental assumption we base this Special Issue on is that narrow concepts of growth have become the ruling ideas of this age, entrenched both in everyday life and to a considerable extent in the theoretical thinking and traditions of research conducted by organization and management studies scholars. We explain how tacit (or overt) endorsement of unbridled economic growth (the growth imperative) has pernicious practical effects and how it tends to restrict the intellectual base of the field. We argue that notions of degrowth present scholars with challenges as well as opportunities to reframe core assumptions and develop new directions in theory and research. Envisioning a post-COVID 19 world where societies and organizations can flourish without growth is one of the most difficult tasks facing theorists. We approach this challenge first by discussing the hegemonic properties of growth ideology and second by sketching an alternative political economy as a context for reimagining social and economic relations within planetary capacities in a post-growth era. Drawing on degrowth literature in ecological economics, sociology and
Chapter
One of the key challenges of sustainable transitions is a deep reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in transport. Therefore, new propulsion systems are being improved—mainly hybrid and electric ones. In the last five years, they have been increasingly used on ferries in ports and on coastal waters. The short route and the use of the same ferry ports facilitate the use of hybrid or electric propulsion. The basis of this article is the assumption that the development in ferry shipping electrification is a result of interactions between technical and operational features as well as geographical and economic conditions. Its purpose, however, is to identify these features and conditions based on four case studies of hybrid or electric ferry implementations on port or coastal routes. The final solutions for each ferry crossing are the result of a specific configuration of mentioned earlier features and conditions. All analyzed case studies concerned Europe, which is why there is a need for further research into this type of investment. Along with their spread in other parts of the world, it will be possible to verify the identified catalog of conditions.
Article
Energy and environmental data represent fundamental information for the analysis of sustainable development. On the other hand, these aspects should be associated with economic and human dimensions in order to obtain a more holistic vision. From this perspective, some indicators are discussed and analyzed in this paper in order to assess the performance of a country. As regards the energetic aspects, the data of total primary energy supply and exergy losses were considered. The environmental aspects were taken into account by considering the greenhouse gas emissions and the particulate matter emissions. These energy and environmental data were put in relation to the GDP (gross domestic product) and HDI (human development index, a multidimensional index proposed by United Nations), respectively. So, two sets of indicators were introduced-the set E for economic properties and the set H for human aspects. A case study was conducted by analyzing a group of countries that meet two criteria: the same macro-geographical area and comparable numbers of citizens. The European area-in particular, its six most populous countries-was chosen. From the results obtained, it is possible to point out that some countries present different rankings depending on whether set E or set H is considered. Another important aspect discussed is the temporal evolution of the indicators (the interval from 1990 to 2017 was considered). Political decision-makers can be supported by the use of the indicators of set H in order to evaluate well-being related to their choices on actions related to the energy and environment. These indicators can be used both to analyze the trends of a country and to compare them with the performance of some other similar countries.
Chapter
This chapter is divided into two main parts. The first part presents a review of the relevant literature that describes environmental issues and highlights the milestones of a scientific, and institutional maturation process necessary to place the paradigm of Degrowth in a historical and critical perspective. The aim of this section is to provide the reader with the theoretical knowledge on this topic which is crucial to discussions that will follow in the next chapters. The second part of this chapter discusses an overview of the background starting from the original thoughts of Serge Latouche, his limits, the response from the formal economy, and the introduction of concepts such as transition and resilience and their importance in the overall structure of a new narrative.
Chapter
As a basic concept, sustainable development combines meeting global environmental challenges with the realisation of social aspirations. Sustainability history must, therefore, constitute a branch of historical inquiry that combines social and environmental issues into a connected whole. In order to do so, it is necessary to clarify the deeper historical meanings of society and environment and their interrelations, and to establish a platform from which to observe the hybrid realities of change.
Chapter
There are many actions we can take as individuals to reduce our global spatial, resource consumption, and pollution footprint! However, four high-impact actions (those actions that result in low emissions) that would substantially reduce individual annual carbon emissions are controversial. They necessitate we have one fewer children, live car-free, avoid plane travel, and eat a plant-based diet. There are many low-impact actions that, in combination and across the world, are still important—these include recycling, converting to renewable energy forms, grow your own food and eat organic, reduce cloth purchases, plant trees/scrubs, not grass in gardens, live in higher density housing, among many others.
Chapter
Full-text available
Participatory approaches to scenario development, based on "visions of the future", have been gaining momentum and being widely used in the environmental field, in the context of transition to sustainability. In this context, scenarios are developed through the discussion of trajectories (which consider actions and obstacles) that link the visualized future with the present through back-casting methods. Considering the complexity of social and environmental issues in the Paraíba do Sul River basin — due to the pressures exerted by the demands of the Metropolitan Regions of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro combined with the institutional conjuncture and the environment change settings —, a formative process was proposed involving social actors from the São Paulo area of this basin, with the aim of outlining scenarios and trajectories for this basin. This process has been informed by elements, principles and tools of environmental education, in order to build collective knowledge and, consequently, contribute to a social learning process among its participants. This came about as a strategy to mobilize the social actors within the basin, aiming at training popular researchers from the scenario-building process. In order to foster the engagement of stakeholders, a hybrid methodology, inspired by citizen science, popular education, praxis and alternation pedagogy, was built. In addition to training participants in techniques, methods and processes of diagnosis and prognosis, this methodology provided the co-production of a participatory socio-environmental diagnosis as well as scenarios and trajectories for the Paraíba do Sul River basin.
Article
Full-text available
The main interlinked challenges to achieve a low-carbon emission economy are analyzed. It is argued first that there are no obstacles to a free market working effectively with a high penetration of distributed Renewable Energies (RE), since intermittency has been overstated, and affordable storage solutions are available because of strong learning rates. Demand-side management policies are promising too, neither are there foreseeable boundaries to the availability of economically extractable photovoltaic and wind energies. A full 100% RE system may be more challenging though, partly because bioenergy, a key dispatchable source in most available RE roadmaps, clashes with growing food needs and reforestation to counter greenhouse gases emissions. Similarly, the green growth proposal is constrained by materials availability, mainly cobalt and phosphorus, which will also constrain the deployment of electric vehicles. Alternatively, the United Nations Human Development Index may be a more suitable target for a sustainable RE system. Although history is not reassuring, the main global economic hurdle is possibly existing fossil fuel-related investments, likely to become stranded. An assessment of their value yields a substantially lower figure than is sometimes claimed, though. Finally, a limited role for nuclear energy is assessed positively, provided it is publicly owned.
Book
Full-text available
A Planetary Tragedy addresses the question why, some 50 years after ‘the environment’ became a topic of public concern, efforts to address environmental problems have by and large failed and the world appears to be headed for a disastrous future. Although over these years, governments have adopted a raft of national and international measures to combat environmental issues, most of these have proven to be inadequate and the rate of environmental degradation has continued unabated. The book critically surveys and analyses the environmental performance of countries, in particular some that have been regarded as ‘environmental leaders’ and identifies and discusses three broad reasons for this failure. First, the way environmental problems have been predominantly interpreted, which largely ignores the deep and interconnected nature of the environmental challenge; second, the failure to recognise, let alone address, the systemic sources and causes of environmental problems; third, the power structures in the prevailing political-economic systems, which make it virtually impossible to fundamentally change those systems and to put societies onto a path towards sustainability. Covering an extensive literature, the book draws on research, theories, findings, and ideas from the fields of environmental politics and policy, including comparative, international, and global analyses and perspectives, environmental sociology and history, economics and the environment, political and social theory, and environmental management. It puts forward a framework that can assist in taking a comprehensive and integrated approach to the environmental challenge, discusses the strengths and weaknesses of a range of theoretical perspectives, clarifies key concepts and factors central to better understanding the systemic issues and obstacles lying at the heart of the environmental challenge, and puts forward ideas on how to strategically address the enormous imbalance of power that stands in the way of transformative change. The main suggestion is the creation of national-level Sovereign People’s Authorities based on the principle of popular sovereignty that will enable societies to democratically steer themselves towards a sustainable and desirable future. The book is essential reading for students and academics in the areas of environmental politics and policy, including comparative, international and global environmental politics, and all those who wish to gain a deeper understanding of why societies have been unable to address the environmental challenge more effectively. While not offering a basis for facile optimism, it puts the finger on what will be needed to prevent the world from sliding further towards the abyss.
Article
Full-text available
The population covered by the hydrographic basins of the Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiaí rivers is exposed to continuous episodes of water scarcity. The imbalance of supply to demand could have originated in the increase in consumption, reduction in the volume of rainfall and water stocks in the reservoirs, or even in the confluence of these with other factors. Achieving sustainability and water security, therefore, depends on efficient management plans. In this article, the authors propose to evaluate the contribution of Environmental Education in the context of sustainable management of water resources. Based on the data analysis collected in the Reports of the Hydrographic Basins of the Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiaí rivers and Law 9433/97, which instituted the National Policy on Water Resources, they search evidence of the correlation between values, education, and awareness regarding the use of water resources. However, although foreseen, Environmental Education practices are not part of the list of measures to mitigate water scarcity in the analyzed context.
Chapter
The growth paradigm of capitalism has energetic foundations, exemplified by the close correlation between GDP growth and energy use globally. Furthermore, the magnitude of debt suggests that, for economic stability, growth must continue in order for that debt to be repaid. But various ecological pressures imply that the energetic foundations of ongoing growth may not be available if societies decarbonise deeply and swiftly. Substantial contraction of human energy and resource use may be forced upon us, especially in the most developed regions of the world. It is both too late and also not feasible to achieve this by carbon taxes or pricing alone. A dual-price mechanism where every transaction requires both money and tradeable Universal Carbon Credits could ensure that the burden of income reduction fell on the rich rather than the poor. At the same time, we need to avoid past private sector financial commitments crippling the post-carbon economy, via a Modern Debt Jubilee. Financing both proposals can be achieved using the insights of Modern Monetary Theory.
Article
Full-text available
Psychological Impact on Employees during down Sizing and Right Sizing
Chapter
Commissioned by the Club of Rome, the Meadows team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) produced The Limits to Growth in 1972. Using system dynamics modelling, the team found that economic growth will reach physical limits by the middle of the twenty-first century. Economists in particular rejected the notion that human economies have any limits and treated the work with derision. Scientists took a more supportive approach and have written independent reviews and developed the limits ideas. A number of them have tested the modelling against real-world outcomes 30, 40 or 50 years later, and have found that the Limits projections are reliable. While it is often claimed that collapse can be avoided by large technological advances, it is likely that a paradigm shift in human, social and economic expectations is also necessary.
Chapter
From a historical perspective, the engine that has propelled us towards the prosperity enjoyed by developed societies like Denmark is economic growth. Yet, it also created the environmental problems that we now all face. Continued growth in large parts of the world is unquestionably a prerequisite for achieving the defined social sustainability goals for all of humankind. But when the SDGs bring together environmental and societal targets, where does that leave rich countries like Denmark? Will our economic activity (and the affluence derived from it) necessarily decline? Or is it possible to combine sustainability and affluence? In other words, can a rich society develop sustainably while remaining rich?
Thesis
Full-text available
Les énergies renouvelables (ENR) jouent un rôle central pour décarboner les systèmes énergétiques et lutter contre le réchauffement climatique. Du fait de défaillances de marché, des politiques publiques visant à soutenir ces technologies sont nécessaires. Cette thèse vise à évaluer l’efficacité des politiques climatiques de soutien à l’innovation et à la diffusion dans les ENR. Cet objectif général se décline en trois problématiques qui sont abordées dans trois différents chapitres.Deux types de politique de soutien aux ENR sont généralement distinguées: les politiques de soutien à l'innovation (dites techno-push) et les politiques de soutien à la diffusion (dites demand-pull). Un débat existe dans la littérature académique pour définir la répartition optimale entre soutien demand-pull et soutien techno-push. En effet, il existerait un fort déséquilibre entre les dépenses publiques accordées aux deux types de politiques. Ce constat pose la question de la pérennité du processus de changement technologique en cours et de la nécessité, ou non, d’un redéploiement par l’innovation. Cette thèse vise à éclairer ce débat en se basant sur une revue des études empiriques. Cette revue de la littérature montre que l'effet des politiques sur l’innovation et la diffusion varie selon le type de politique et selon le niveau de maturité des ENR. Les politiques indifférenciées quant aux technologies ciblées (certificats verts par exemple), stimulent l’innovation dans les technologies matures et proches de la compétitivité alors que les prix garantis (tarifs d’achat par exemple) sont plus appropriés pour les technologies plus coûteuses.Les résultats de notre revue de la littérature font également ressortir un manque d’études sur l’effet des spillovers de connaissances sur les performances en innovation des pays dans les ENR. Le chapitre deux vise à combler cette lacune en étudiant, au niveau national, la relation entre la performance relative en innovation dans les énergies éoliennes et solaires photovoltaïques (PV) et la performance relative en innovation dans leur(s) principale(s) technologie(s) complémentaire(s). Les résultats montrent que les innovations dans le domaine des transports, de la mécanique et du bâtiment jouent un rôle crucial pour le développement de l'énergie éolienne. Les innovations en matière d'optique, de revêtement et de chimie sont essentielles pour le solaire PV. Ce chapitre aboutit à l’identification de pays qui auraient un fort intérêt à innover davantage dans les ENR du fait de leur spécialisation dans les technologies complémentaires (en particulier la France dans les énergies éoliennes et la Belgique dans les énergies solaires PV).Par ailleurs, la littérature empirique existante semble se heurter à des difficultés à modéliser et à prendre en compte les interactions entre les politiques publiques, la performance en innovation et la performance à l’export, alors que dans un objectif de croissance verte ces enjeux sont cruciaux pour les pays. L’objectif du chapitre trois est de contribuer à combler cette lacune en utilisant des modèles PVAR (Panel Vector Autoregressive). Nos résultats montrent que les dépenses publiques de RD semblent être plus appropriées que les politiques de diffusion pour améliorer les performances à l'exportation pour les deux technologies (éolien et solaire PV). Pour les technologies éoliennes et solaires PV nous concluons également à l’absence de cercle vertueux entre les performances relatives en innovation et à l’export. Nous constatons néanmoins quelques résultats différents entre les deux technologies, qui pourraient être expliqués par les différences de barrières à l'entrée et sur les coûts irrécupérables.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Günümüzde, statü, prestij ve imaj değeri yüksek, sahip olunması gereken ürünlerin ön planda tutulduğu “sembolik bir tüketim” anlayışı ön plandadır. Bu anlayış, tüketiciyi ürünü imgeleştirme ve sahip olma dürtüsüyle sürekli bir tüketme ihtiyacına yönlendirmektedir. Sonuç olarak, hızlı ve yoğun bir tüketim ortamı oluşmakta ve üretim için ihtiyaç duyulan kaynak yeterliliği konusunda sorun yaşanmaktadır. Tüketim motivasyonunun devamı açısından bu soruna çözüm oluşturma bağlamında son zamanlarda “sürdürülebilirlik” kavramı gündeme gelmektedir. Böylece, malzemede geri dönüşüm sağlanarak aynı malzeme ile farklı biçim ve işlevde ürünün yeniden hayat bulması, bir anlamda ürünün reenkarnasyonu sağlanmaktadır. Bu da ürünün tasarlanma sürecini etkilemekte, “kullan at” tasarım anlayışı yerini uzun ömürlü, geri dönüşebilir, doğada çözünebilir malzemeleri ön planda tutan bir tasarım anlayışına bırakmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, tüketici çevreye duyarlı olduğu imajını vermek için, üretici de tüketim ortamında varlığını sürdürebilmek için bu anlayışı benimsemekte ve sürdürülebilirlik, günümüzde çevreci bir bakış açısına sahip olması nedeniyle gelip geçici bir moda gibi algılanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, yoğun tüketim sonucunda kaynak yetersizliği sebebiyle üretim-tüketim dengesinin devamlılığı açısından “sürdürülebilirlik” kavramının zorunluluk haline geleceği, dolayısıyla bir moda gibi algılanmaktan öteye geçeceği ön görülmektedir. Geleceğin tüketim anlayışını şekillendireceği düşünülen sürdürülebilirlik kavramının irdelenmesi bakımından çalışma önem taşımaktadır. Konuya dair ilgili kitaplar, konu ile ilişkili hazırlanmış makaleler, kataloglar, internet ortamında var olan kaynaklar üzerinde yoğunlaşarak elde edilen bilgilerin kuramsal-analizi temelli bir yöntem kullanılacaktır.
Article
Full-text available
The COVID19 pandemic has created a massive shock, unexpectedly increasing mortality levels and generating economic recessions all around the world. In recent years, several efforts have been made to develop models that link the environment, population and the economy which may be used to estimate potential longer term effects of the pandemic. Unfortunately, many of the parameters used in these models lack appropriate empirical identification. In this study, first I estimate the parameters of “Wonderland”, a system dynamics model of the population-economy-environment nexus, and posteriorly, add external GDP and mortality shocks to the model. The estimated parameters are able to closely match world data, while future simulations point, on average and regardless of the COVID19 pandemic, to a world reaching dangerous environmental levels in the following decades, in line with consensus forecasts. On the other hand, the effects of the pandemic on the economy are highly uncertain and may last for several decades.
Article
Sustainable development is based on a multi-layered understanding of development, particularly in terms of environmental, economic, and social factors. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), on the other hand, are a continuous and evolving development goal that can be implemented by any country in the world. The study's goal is to assess and compare countries in terms of the relationship between the SDG's 11th global goal, "sustainable cities and communities," and the SDG's 13th global goal, "climate action." Through quantitative analysis, the relationship between making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable and addressing climate change is assessed in this study. DEMATEL and PIV methods were used in the study as part of the multi-criteria decision model to rank the countries. The carbon footprint was identified as the most important criterion in the DEMATEL results. Sweden, Uruguay, Colombia, Norway, and Brazil were the top five countries in the PIV ranking.
Article
Full-text available
Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.
Article
Full-text available
Abstract Assessments of global coal, oil, and natural gas occurrences usually focus on conventional hydrocarbon reserves, i.e. those occurrences that can be exploited with current technology and present market conditions. The focus on reserves seriously underestimates long-term global hydrocarbon availability. Greenhouse gas emissions based on these estimates may convey the message that the world is running out of fossil fuels, and as a result, emissions would be reduced automatically. If the vast unconventional hydrocarbon occurrences are included in the resource estimates and historically observed rates of technology change are applied to their mobilization, the potential accessibility of fossil sources increases dramatically with long-term production costs that are not significantly higher than present market prices. Although the geographical hydrocarbon resource distribution varies significantly, a regional breakdown for 11 world regions indicates that neither hydrocarbon resource availability nor costs are likely to become forces that automatically would help wean the global energy system from the use of fossil fuel during the next century.
Article
Full-text available
Sustainable development has been defined by political and corporate leaders as the combination of environmental protection and economic growth. As a result, the concept of eco-efficiency has been promoted as the primary tool for achieving industrial sustainability. However, there are at least four reasons why technological improvements in eco-efficiency alone will be insufficient to bring about a transition to sustainability. First, considering that the very foundations of western industrial societies are based on the exploitation of non-renewable minerals and fuels, it will be extremely difficult to switch to an industrial and economic system based solely on renewable resources. Clearly, the continuing use of non-renewables is inherently unsustainable because of finite material supplies and the fact that 100% recycling is impossible. Second, given the limited supply of non-renewable fuels, long-term sustainability can only be guaranteed if all energy is derived directly or indirectly from the sun. However, if the current U.S. energy demand would have to be supplied solely from solar sources, a wide range of serious and unavoidable negative environmental impacts are likely to result. Third, even the best of human ingenuity and the greatest technological optimism are bounded by the second law of thermodynamics, which dictates that all industrial and economic activities have unavoidable negative environmental consequences. Finally, improvements in eco-efficiency alone will not guarantee a reduction in the total environmental impact if economic growth is allowed to continue. Unless growth in both population and consumption is restrained, these technological improvements only delay the onset of negative consequences that, as a result, will have increased in severity, thereby reducing our freedom to choose satisfying solutions.
Article
Full-text available
Integrated global models (IGMs) attempt to build quantitative understanding of the complex, dynamic history and future of human–environment interactions at the global scale. There is now a 30 year history of this approach. Over this period, computer simulation modeling has become a well-accepted technique in scientific analysis, but truly integrated simulation models — those that deal with the dynamics of both the natural and human components of the system and their interactions — are still relatively rare, and those that do this at the global scale are even rarer. This paper is a survey of past experience with IGMs to serve as the basis for discussion about their role in the IHOPE project. We analyze seven IGMs in some detail, comparing and contrasting their characteristics, performance, and limitations. The integrated global data base that IHOPE will create can greatly spur the development, testing and application of IGMs. At the same time, the development of IGMs can greatly facilitate thinking about what data needs to be collected. IGMs therefore will play a central role in the IHOPE project and deserve careful consideration.
Article
Full-text available
Stabilizing the carbon dioxide–induced component of climate change is an energy problem. Establishment of a course toward such stabilization will require the development within the coming decades of primary energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, in addition to efforts to reduce end-use energy demand. Mid-century primary power requirements that are free of carbon dioxide emissions could be several times what we now derive from fossil fuels (∼1013 watts), even with improvements in energy efficiency. Here we survey possible future energy sources, evaluated for their capability to supply massive amounts of carbon emission–free energy and for their potential for large-scale commercialization. Possible candidates for primary energy sources include terrestrial solar and wind energy, solar power satellites, biomass, nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, fission-fusion hybrids, and fossil fuels from which carbon has been sequestered. Non–primary power technologies that could contribute to climate stabilization include efficiency improvements, hydrogen production, storage and transport, superconducting global electric grids, and geoengineering. All of these approaches currently have severe deficiencies that limit their ability to stabilize global climate. We conclude that a broad range of intensive research and development is urgently needed to produce technological options that can allow both climate stabilization and economic development.
Article
Full-text available
CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y(-1) for 1990-1999 to >3% y(-1) for 2000-2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the world's population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity.
Article
Sequel to The limits to growth this book presents a renewed and refined version of the 1972 assessment and warnings. Better data, improved modelling and 20 yr of hindsight lead the authors to conclude that many resource and pollution flows are now no longer approaching the limits. Adopting a systems viewpoint and using the World3 model it is shown that mankind has a choice, and must make it soon. The choice is between allowing development to continue as it is and suffer global collapse, or take action to secure a sustainable future. The authors stress a sustainable future is technically and economically feasible, if growth in material consumption and population are eased down and there is a drastic increase in the efficiency of use of materials and energy. Chapters consider: overshoot; exponential growth; the limits (sources and sinks); dynamics of growth in a finite world; back from beyond the limits (the ozone story); technology, markets, and overshoot; transitions to a sustainable system; overshoot but not collapse. -C.J.Barrow
Conference Paper
In this paper we discuss verification and validation of simulation models. Four different approaches to deciding model validity are described; two different paradigms that relate verification and validation to the model development process are presented; various validation techniques are defined; conceptual model validity, model verification, operational validity, and data validity are discussed; a way to document results is given; a recommended procedure for model validation is presented; and model accreditation is briefly discussed.
Article
Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book is the first to give a comprehensive description of the causes and impacts of technological change and how they relate to global environmental change. Written for specialists and nonspecialists alike, it will be useful for researchers and professors, as a textbook for graduate students, for people engaged in long-term policy planning in industry (strategic planning departments) and government (R & D and technology ministries, environment ministries), for environmental activists (NGOs), and for the wider public interested in history, technology, or environmental issues.
Article
This paper briefly outlines the basic science on climate change, as well as the IPCC assessments on emissions scenarios and climate impacts, to provide a context for the topic of key vulnerabilities to climate change. A conceptual overview of "dangerous" climate change issues and the roles of scientists and policy makers in this complex scientific and policy arena are suggested, based on literature and recent IPCC work in progress. Literature on assessments of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" with the climate system is summarized, with emphasis on recent probabilistic analyses.
Article
Over the last 25 yr, considerable debate has continued about the future supply of fossil fuel. On one side are those who believe we are rapidly depleting resources and that the resulting shortages will have a profound impact on society. On the other side are those who see no impending crisis because long-term trends are for cheaper prices despite rising production. The concepts of resources and reserves have historically created considerable misunderstanding in the minds of many nongeologists. Hubbert-type predictions of energy production assume that there is a finite supply of energy that is measurable; however, estimates of resources and reserves are inventories of the amounts of a fossil fuel perceived to be available over some future period of time. As those resources/reserves are depleted over time, additional amounts of fossil fuels are inventoried. Throughout most of this century, for example, crude oil reserves in the United States have represented a 10-14-yr supply. For the last 50 yr, resource crude oil estimates have represented about a 60-70-yr supply for the United States. Division of reserve or resource estimates by current or projected annual consumption therefore is circular in reasoning and can lead to highly erroneous conclusions. Production histories of fossil fuels are driven more by demand than by the geologic abundance of the resource. Examination of some energy resources with well-documented histories leads to two conceptual models that relate production to price. The closed-market model assumes that there is only one source of energy available. Although the price initially may fall because of economies of scale long term, prices rise as the energy source is depleted and it becomes progressively more expensive to extract. By contrast, the open-market model assumes that there is a variety of available energy sources and that competition among them leads to long-term stable or falling prices. At the moment, the United States and the world approximate the open-market model, but in the long run the supply of fossil fuel is finite, and prices inevitably will rise unless alternate energy sources substitute for fossil energy supplies; however, there appears little reason to suspect that long-term price trends will rise significantly over the next few decades.
Article
Natural resource consumption has increased considerably in the past 200 years despite more efficient technology advancements. This correlation between increased natural resource consumption and increased efficiency is known as Jevons’ Paradox. Since all the inputs to economic production come from the environment, increased resource consumption and ecosystem destruction should be of concern. Furthermore, the expenditure of natural resources to provide energy and other consumer goods is an irreversible process, worsening the human condition instead of improving human welfare as neoclassical theory would have one to believe. Therefore, sustainable development policies need to be considered to end the continued excess consumption, beyond sustainable levels, of natural resources and the potential resulting conflicts. To design environmentally sustainable policies, the effect of economic activity, of resource utilization, and increased efficiency must be understood. In this paper, we attempt to illustrate how human consumption of natural resources alters the natural state of the economy and the environment. Further, using energy data from the Energy Information Administration we develop models that provide some empirical support that Jevons’ Paradox may exist on a macro level. Finally, we examine the resulting policy implications and the applications for an ecological economic approach.
Article
This article highlights the strength of the basic system dynamics tools (system structure, unquantified variables, the reference mode, and leverage points) by testing the original World2 (1970) and World3 (1972) analyses against 30 years of history. Critical feedback structures in those models are revisited in the context of the current ‘sustainable development’ agenda. Time cannot yet confirm or reject the “;overshoot and collapse” reference mode of behaviour for the standard world-model run, but the tendencies and pressures that produced it still persist. The article closes with the identification of possible leverage points for attaining sustainable development in the expected fields of education, eco-efficiency, and resource management and energy policies, and speculates on possible others that the new millennium may offer. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Article
The world's production of conventional hydrocarbons will soon decline. Hydrocarbon shortages are inevitable unless radical changes occur in demand, or in the supply of non-conventional hydrocarbons. The details are as follows:Global conventional oil supply is currently at political risk. This is because the sum of conventional oil production from all countries in the world, except the five main Middle-East suppliers, is near the maximum set by physical resource limits. Should Middle-East suppliers decide to substantially curtail supply, the shortfall cannot be replaced by conventional oil from other sources.World conventional oil supply will soon be at physical risk. The Middle-East countries have only little spare operational capacity, and this will be increasingly called upon as oil production declines elsewhere. Large investments in Middle-East production, if they occur, could raise output, but only to a limited extent. (A partial exception is Iraq, but even here, there would be significant delays before prospects are confirmed, and infrastructure is in place.) If demand is maintained, and if large investments in Middle-East capacity are not made, the world will face the prospect of oil shortages in the near term.Even with large investments, resource limits will force Middle-East production to decline fairly soon, and hence also global conventional oil production. The date of this resource-limited global peak depends on the size of Middle-East reserves, which are poorly known, and unreliably reported. Best estimates put the physical peak of global conventional oil production between 5 and 10 years from now.The world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil, and various oil substitutes. But the rapidity of the decline in the production of conventional oil makes it probable that these non-conventional sources cannot come on-stream fast enough to fully compensate. The result will be a sustained global oil shortage.For conventional gas, the world's original endowment is probably about the same, in energy terms, as its endowment of conventional oil. Since less gas has been used so far compared to oil, the world will turn increasingly to gas as oil declines. But the global peak in conventional gas production is already in sight, in perhaps 20 years, and hence the global peak of all hydrocarbons (oil plus gas) is likely to be in about 10 or so years.
Article
This paper argues that perceptual distortions and prevailing economic rationality, far from encouraging investment in natural capital, actually accelerate the depletion of natural capital stocks. Moreover, conventional monetary analyses cannot detect the problem. This paper therefore makes the case for direct biophysical measurement of relevant stocks and flows, and uses for this purpose the ecological footprint concept. To develop the argument, the paper elaborates the natural capital concept and asserts the need of investing in natural capital to compensate for net losses. It shows how the ecological footprint can be used as a biophysical measure for such capital, and applies this concept as an analytical tool for examining the barriers to investing in natural capital. It picks four issues from a rough taxonomy of barriers and discusses them from an ecological footprint perspective: it shows why marginal prices cannot reflect ecological necessities; how interregional risk pooling encourages resource liquidation; how present terms of trade undermine both local and global ecological stability; and how efficiency strategies may actually accelerate resource throughput. Affirming the necessity of biophysical approaches for exploring the sustainability implications of basic ecological and thermodynamic principles, it draws lessons for current development.
Article
This paper challenges the view that improving the efficiency of energy use will lead to a reduction in national energy consumption, and hence is an effective policy for reducing national CO2 emissions. It argues that improving energy efficiency lowers the implicit price of energy and hence make its use more affordable, thus leading to greater use—an effect termed the ‘rebound’ or ‘takeback’ effect. The paper presents the views of economists, as well as green critics of ‘the gospel of efficiency’. The paper argues that a more effective CO2 policy is to concentrate on shifting to non-fossil fuels, like renewables, subsidized through a carbon tax. Ultimately what is needed, to limit energy consumption, is energy sufficiency (or conservation) rather than energy efficiency.
Article
Environmental disasters. Terrorist wars. Energy scarcity. Economic failure. Is this the world's inevitable fate, a downward spiral that ultimately spells the collapse of societies? Perhaps, says acclaimed author Thomas Homer-Dixon - or perhaps these crises can actually lead to renewal for ourselves and planet earth. The Upside of Down takes the reader on a mind-stretching tour of societies' management, or mismanagement, of disasters over time. From the demise of ancient Rome to contemporary climate change, this spellbinding book analyzes what happens when multiple crises compound to cause what the author calls "synchronous failure." But, crisis doesn't have to mean total global calamity. Through catagenesis, or creative, bold reform in the wake of breakdown, it is possible to reinvent our future. Drawing on the worlds of archeology, poetry, politics, science, and economics, The Upside of Down is certain to provoke controversy and stir imaginations across the globe. The author's wide-ranging expertise makes his insights and proposals particularly acute, as people of all nations try to grapple with how we can survive tomorrow's inevitable shocks to our global system. There is no guarantee of success, but there are ways to begin thinking about a better world, and The Upside of Down is the ideal place to start thinking.
Article
Propuestas para el diseño de modelos y la medición de la sustentabilidad, planteadas con base en un estudio de caso nacional desarrollado durante cuatro años en Escocia.
Book
Traditional growth theory emphasizes the incentives for capital accumulation rather than technological progress. Innovation is treated as an exogenous process or a by-product of investment in machinery and equipment. Grossman and Helpman develop a unique approach in which innovation is viewed as a deliberate outgrowth of investments in industrial research by forward-looking, profit-seeking agents.
Article
Rapid global economic growth, centred in Asia but now spread across the world, is driving rapid greenhouse-gas emissions growth, making earlier projections unrealistic. This paper develops new, illustrative business-as-usual projections for carbon dioxide (CO) from fossil fuels and other sources and for non-CO greenhouse gases. Making adjustments to 2007 World Energy Outlook projections to reflect more fully recent trends, we project annual emissions by 2030 to be almost double current volumes, 11 per cent higher than in the most pessimistic scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and at a level reached only in 2050 in the business-as-usual scenario used by the Stern Review. This has major implications for the global approach to climate-change mitigation. The required effort is much larger than implicit in the IPCC data informing the current international climate negotiations. Large cuts in developed country emissions will be required, and significant deviations from baselines will be required in developing countries by 2020. It is hard to see how the required cuts could be achieved without all major developing as well as developed countries adopting economy-wide policies.
Article
At present, the most accurate knowledge about climate sensitivity is based on data from the earth's history, and this evidence reveals that small forces, maintained long enough, can cause large climate change. Human-made forces, especially greenhouse gases, soot and other small particles, now exceed natural forces, and the world has begun to warm at a rate predicted by climate models. The stability of the great ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica and the need to preserve global coastlines set a low limit on the global warming that will constitute "dangerous anthropogenic interference" with climate. Halting global warming requires urgent, unprecedented international cooperation, but the needed actions are feasible and have additional benefits for human health, agriculture and the environment.
Article
Increasing energy use, climate change, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels make switching to low-carbon fuels a high priority. Biofuels are a potential low-carbon energy source, but whether biofuels offer carbon savings depends on how they are produced. Converting rainforests, peatlands, savannas, or grasslands to produce food crop–based biofuels in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the United States creates a “biofuel carbon debt” by releasing 17 to 420 times more CO2 than the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions that these biofuels would provide by displacing fossil fuels. In contrast, biofuels made from waste biomass or from biomass grown on degraded and abandoned agricultural lands planted with perennials incur little or no carbon debt and can offer immediate and sustained GHG advantages.
Facing the Future: Mastering the Probable and Managing the Unpredictable. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Develop-ment)
  • Interfutures
Interfutures, 1979. Facing the Future: Mastering the Probable and Managing the Unpredictable. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Develop-ment), Washington, DC.
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of Working Group 1: Climate Change 2007—The Physical Science BasisM., unpublished, A review of claims made against The Limits to Growth about its prediction of global collapse Statistical Yearbook. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Statistical Division
  • S Solomon
  • D Qin
  • M Manning
  • M Marquis
  • K Averyt
  • M M B Tignor
  • H R Miller
  • Z Chin
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M.M.B., Miller, H.R., Chin, Z. (Eds.), 2007. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of Working Group 1: Climate Change 2007—The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Turner, G.M., unpublished, A review of claims made against The Limits to Growth about its prediction of global collapse. UN, 2001a. Statistical Yearbook. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Statistical Division, United Nations, New York. UN, 2001b. World Population Monitoring 2001: Population, Environment and Development. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations, New York. UN-Energy, 2007. Sustainable Bioenergy: A Framework for Decision Makers. United Nations. UNEP, 2002. Global Environment Outlook 3: Past, Present and Future Perspectives. Earthscan Publications Ltd, London.
Limits of a Modern World: A Study of the Limits to Growth Debate Evaluating past forecasts: reflections on one critique of The Limits to Growth Sustainability or Collapse? An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth
  • R Mccutcheon
  • Butterworths
  • London
  • D L Meadows
McCutcheon, R., 1979. Limits of a Modern World: A Study of the Limits to Growth Debate. Butterworths, London. Meadows, D.L., 2007. Evaluating past forecasts: reflections on one critique of The Limits to Growth. In: Costanza, R., Grqumlich, L., Steffen, W. (Eds.), Sustainability or Collapse? An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 399–415.
In: Department of Physical Resource Theory
  • B A Andersson
Andersson, B.A., 2001. In: Department of Physical Resource Theory. Chalmers University of Technology and Gö teborg University, Gö teborg.
Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World Beyond the Limits: Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update Measuring and Modelling Sustainable Development
  • D L Meadows
  • W W Behrens_Iii
  • D H Meadows
  • R F Naill
  • J Randers
  • E K O Zahn
  • D H Meadows
  • D L Meadows
  • J Randers
Meadows, D.L., Behrens_III, W.W., Meadows, D.H., Naill, R.F., Randers, J., Zahn, E.K.O., 1974. Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World. Wright-Allen Press, Inc, Massachusetts. Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., 1992. Beyond the Limits: Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future. Earthscan Publications Ltd, London. Meadows, D.H., Randers, J., Meadows, D.L., 2004. Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. Chelsea Green Publishing Co., White River Junction, Vermont. Moffatt, I., Hanley, N., Wilson, M.D., 2001. Measuring and Modelling Sustainable Development. The Parthenon Publishing Group, New York.
The Next 200 Years. Abacus, LondonOpportunity in Crisis''—Inaugural Lecture of the Geneva Lecture Series
  • H Khan
  • W Brown
  • L Martel
  • B Ki-Moon
Khan, H., Brown, W., Martel, L., 1976. The Next 200 Years. Abacus, London. Ki-Moon, B., 2008. ''Opportunity in Crisis''—Inaugural Lecture of the Geneva Lecture Series. United Nations, Geneva (Switzerland) /http://www.un.org/ apps/news/story.asp?NewsID ¼ 26395&Cr ¼ food&Cr1 ¼ crisisS.
What was there in the famousReport to the Club of Rome
  • J.-M Jancovici
Jancovici, J.-M., 2003. What was there in the famous ''Report to the Club of Rome''? /http://www.manicore.com/anglais/documentation_a/club_rome_a.htmlS. Jevons, W.S., 1865. The Coal Question; An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal Mines. Macmillan & Co., London.
Facts, Not Fear: Teaching Children About the Environment
  • M Sanera
  • J S Shaw
Sanera, M., Shaw, J.S., 1996. Facts, Not Fear: Teaching Children About the Environment. Regnery Pub., Washington, DC.
Revisiting The Limits to Growth: Could The Club of Rome have been correct, after all? An Energy White Paper
  • M R Simmons
Simmons, M.R., 2000. Revisiting The Limits to Growth: Could The Club of Rome have been correct, after all? An Energy White Paper.
The Prince Philip Lecture with HRH Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, in the Chair
  • Article In Press Ridley
ARTICLE IN PRESS Ridley, M., 2001. The Prince Philip Lecture with HRH Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, in the Chair. Royal Society of Arts.
Opportunity in Crisis -Inaugural lecture of the Geneva Lecture Series
  • B Ki-Moon
Ki-Moon, B. (2008) Opportunity in Crisis -Inaugural lecture of the Geneva Lecture Series. United Nations, Geneva (Switzerland). <http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=26395&Cr=food&Cr1=crisis>