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The impact of climate change on cherry trees and other species in Japan
... Monitoring at other weather stations started later, and not all stations have operated continuously. Temperatures have risen across the country over the study period, with greater temperature increases in areas with larger human populations (Primack et al., 2009). These data have been extensively used to investigate how species are changing their phenology over time and in response to annual variation in temperature (Lee et al., 2011;Ellwood et al., 2012;Kim et al., 2021). ...
... We used means over February and March after exploratory analysis revealed that these were the most strongly predictive regions and also to match previous work (e.g. Primack et al., 2009). While temperature sensitivity is often calculated using degree-day models, we follow similar studies interested in variance shifts through time (notably Stemkovski et al., 2023, who further justify this approach) in order to ensure comparability among studies. ...
... For example, the timing of cherry blossoms has been recorded in Kyoto for 1200 years, so long that they have been used in climate reconstructions Aono & Kazui [15]. Centuries-long phenology data also exist for other plant and animal species across Japan Primack et al., [16]. The study of Ivan and Margary [17] is also pertinent as it reports how many centuries ago, in 1736, Robert ...
... Of the nine projects we have presented above, about half engage with citizen scientists as collectors only whilst in the case of the Other half, citizens are both collectors and co-active. In an endeavour to define a set of criteria that indicate citizen science and its emancipatory potential-achieving social justice, equity and democratisation of knowledge-we propose that these ten guidelines are helpful 16 . ...
In their recent publication entitled Diamonds on the Soles of their Feet, Goldin, et al.,[1] present a project on groundwater monitoring in the Hout Catchment, Limpopo. The title of the article captures the idea of wealth (democratisation of knowledge, water literacy, social justice) attributed to citizen scientists with their feet on the ground, gathering valuable information-in the case of their study-on groundwater levels and rainfall. Jewels of Africa takes up the idea of democratisation of knowledge and what we see as ‘science of the people’ within the context of the African Continent. We first present some background ideas on CS before defining CS and then, whilst acknowledging the vagaries of coming up with a CS definition, and the huge efforts made by the CS community to define CS, we offer a new and more simple working definition for CS. We then consider CS applications in general before giving nine examples within the African context. We look briefly at the potential of CS in East Africa before we make our contribution to debates around CS and propose ten guidelines which, we believe, complement the ten principles for CS proposed in 2015 by the European Citizen Science Association (ECSA) but which are pertinent when considering CS projects in a developing country context.
... Many researchers have studied the responses of plant phenology to climate change (e.g., Guo et al., 2013;Fu et al., 2015;Xie et al., 2015;Piao et al., 2019a). For instance, an increase in mean temperature leads to earlier phenology in spring and later phenology in autumn (Jentsch et al., 2009;Primack et al., 2009). Plant phenology may be significantly affected by the precipitation or temperature accumulated before the growing season (Shinoda et al., 2007;Richardson et al., 2013;Piao et al., 2015;Yun et al., 2018). ...
... LOS tended to be shortened early and then prolonged late because the SOS tended to be delayed but then somewhat advanced, and EOS also exhibited a significant delay. Many studies have shown that with continuous warming, spring phenology appears significantly earlier, autumn phenology is delayed considerably, and the LOS becomes longer (Jentsch et al., 2009;Primack et al., 2009;Jeong et al., 2011;Piao et al., 2006); however, few studies have reported a delay in SOS (Zhang et al., 2008;Yuan, 2007;Li et al., 2019). ...
... Synchronising the annual temperature cycle with the developmental cycle at the site of plant habitat is crucial for the survival of trees, particularly in cold and temperate regions [3]. Temperature increases and changes in rainfall may create particularly unfavourable conditions for the survival of some species, which may lead to a decrease in their current distribution [4]. The range of plants possessing phenotypic plasticity, due to having undergone adaptive evolution, ensures the maintaining of plant fitness across a range of environmental conditions. ...
... In this case, geographical distribution and rapid temperature changes may turn out to be unfavourable for a given species, given that the migratory capacity of woody plants affects their reaction in a limiting manner [118]. Changes in plant distribution ranges caused by climate change may not only result in migration to new areas that are more suitable for a given organism but may also select against phenotypes that adapt poorly to local conditions or disperse poorly [4,120,121]. Epigenetic regulations, which is the basis of plasticity, give the plants the ability to cope with the variability of the habitat conditions. ...
Forest trees are complex perennial organisms that are adapted to the local environment in the results of prevailing climate conditions in population history. Because they lead a sedentary lifestyle, plants are exposed to various environmental stimuli, such as changes which can lead to the rapid adjustment or failure of their defence mechanisms. As forests play a key role in environment homeostasis and are the source of many products, it is crucial to estimate the role of forest trees' plasticity mechanisms in the face of the climate change. Fast epigenetic adjustment is the basis for surviving climate fluctuations, however the question is whether this mechanism will be also efficient if climate fluctuations increase. Epigenetic modifications enable rapid reactions to the inducing stimulus by establishing chromatin patterns and manipulating gene expression without affecting the DNA itself. This work aimed to gather information about the epigenetic mechanisms of tree responses to changing environmental conditions, in order to summarise what is known so far and emphasize the significance of the discussed issue. Applying this knowledge in the future to study the interactions between climate change and gene regulation at the levels of plant development could generate answers to questions about the limitations of plasticity of plant adaptation to changing environment. We still know very little about how organisms, especially trees, cope with climate change and we believe that this overview will encourage researchers to fill this gap in the knowledge, and that results will be applied in improving defensive capacity of this ecologically and economically important species.
... Plant life cycle events such as flowering, leaf expansion, leaf coloring, and defoliation are closely related to the environment and climate. Temperature is one of the main factors affecting plant phenology (Badeck et al., 2004;Cleland et al., 2006;Primack et al., 2009;Tomczyk and Szyga-Pluta, 2019;Vitasse et al., 2011;Wang and Tang, 2019). For example, increasing temperatures due to climate change alter the phenology of various plants (Gaira and Dhar, 2020;Piao et al., 2019;Richardson et al., 2013). ...
... Changes in the phenology of a plant alter its ecology and interrelationships with other plants and animals. These changes also affect traditional cultural events associated with a plant, which may affect local communities and economies (Chung et al., 2011;Nagai et al., 2019;Primack et al., 2009). ...
Climate change alters the phenology of various plants. For example, increasing temperatures shift the first flowering and full blossom days of Yoshino cherry trees and affect cultural events related to cherry blossoms. We developed models to estimate the first flowering and full blossom dates of Yoshino cherry in Japan based on temperature and phenological data observed at 82 stations in Japan for 68 years (1953–2020). Three machine learning algorithms, namely, the random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) algorithms, were utilized, and the hyperparameters were optimized using Optuna. The GBDT models produced the best estimation accuracy, with an overall root mean square error (RMSE) = 1.53 and 1.48 days for the first flowering date and full blossom date, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) revealed that in the RF and GBDT models, the low temperature in winter and high temperature in spring would advance the estimated first flowering and full blossom dates.
... (3) More favourable microclimate: The heat generated and re-radiated by anthropogenic surfaces means cities are generally warmer than rural areas, termed the urban heat island effect (Rizwan et al., 2008). Milder winter temperatures can extend the flowering season of plants (Primack et al., 2009;Zipper et al., 2016), ensuring that bees have access to food for more of the year and that a higher proportion of days are warm enough to conduct foraging trips (Stelzer et al., 2010). The tolerance for high temperatures that B. terrestris ...
... terrestris to raise more broods (Falk, 2015;Stelzer et al., 2010) and could be an important factor explaining its high colony density reported in Chapter 4. The extended flowering season seen in gardens is possible because of the wide variety of exotic species and horticultural cultivars available to gardeners that have particularly early or late flowering periods (Harrison and Winfree, 2015;Salisbury et al., 2015), which could be further prolonged by the urban heat island effect (Primack et al., 2009;Zipper et al., 2016). ...
... Many studies indicate that flowering dates are being advanced in flowering species. A study in Japan on the cherry tree found that flowering times in and around Osaka and other cities in Japan, with average temperature rise in urbanised cities, cause cherry plants to flower earlier than under the normal average temperature present in parks and outlying suburban areas (Primack et al. 2009). In Japan, the date of the cherry tree flowering season is celebrated as a large festival, providing one of the most important sources of data on the impacts of global warming on flowering phenology. ...
... From 1971 to 2000, cherry trees flowered an average of 7 days earlier in comparison to the average of all previous records. Flowering records at Mt. Takao from a large cherry botanical garden of Tokyo revealed that both among and within species, advanced flowering of trees is linked to their response against temperature variation (Primack et al. 2009). ...
The analysis of rainfall trends is of the utmost importance for sustainable management and planning of agriculture and water resources under changing climate. Therefore, this study aims to detect the long-term rainfall trends of 36 meteorological subdivisions of India for the period 1901–2015. The graphical innovative trend analysis (ITA) technique and the classical statistical Mann–Kendall (MK) or modified Mann–Kendall (mMK) tests are used to detect historical rainfall changes. The nonparametric Sen’s slope (Q) estimator is also applied to measure the magnitude of change. The ITA results show about 61.11% of the subdivisions exhibited decreasing trends in annual rainfall. On the seasonal scale, about 58.33%, 50%, 69.44%, and 88.88% of the subdivisions are experiencing decreasing trends in pre-monsoon (Mar–May), monsoon (Jun–Sep), post-monsoon (Oct–Nov), and winter (Dec–Feb) seasons, respectively. The results of the Z statistic show a good match (about 90%) with the graphical ITA method. However, the ITA method is able to detect subtrends while, MK/mMK shows only the monotonic trend. Such a trend analysis of rainfall can provide significant information that will be useful to build up adaptive capacity and community resilience against climate change. This study can be helpful for regional-scale planning about pre and post-disaster floods, drought mitigation, and agricultural development.
... Для лучшего понимания происходящих процессов необходимо продолжение имеющихся наблюдений и расширение фенологической сети. ЛИТЕРАТУРА В опросы изучения фенологии обрели особую актуальность в свете оценки влияния изменений климата на разные биологические процессы (Cleland et al., 2007;Morin et al., 2009;Primack et al., 2009;Минин, 2011;Richardson et al., 2013). При этом во многих странах, включая Россию, имеются сформированные сети фенологического мониторинга. ...
... На территории Азии также имеются развитые фенологические сети: в Китаеобщенациональная фенологическая сеть Китайской метеорологической администрации и фенологическая сеть Китайской академии наук (Liu et al., 2014;Ge et al., 2014), Японии -Агентство метеорологии Японии (Doi, Takahashi, 2008;Primack et al., 2009), Южной Корее -погодный сервис Кореи (Ho et al., 2006;Chung et al., 2009). ...
This book is describing history of phenological studies in Transbaikalia and emphasizing the contribution of Innokentii Kotov to organizing phenological observations in Buryatia. The book contains the results of digitized archive phenological data and their comparison with modern studies. Modern approaches in phenological studies and their implementation also have been summarized. Book is published on Russian.
... In many developed countries, especially those located in Europe, dependable records of phenological details, often going back to >100 years, are available and have been used to study species migration and their phenological shifts. The flowering phenology of cherry blossoms (Prunus species) in Japan is the longest (over 1200 years) phenological record available (see Primack et al. 2009). Herbarium specimens deposited in standard herbaria provide the location of collection and the period of flowering and fruiting at the time of their collection. ...
... Advances in the days of celebration of the cherry blossom festival in Japan in recent decades are attributed to the climate-induced shift in flowering phenology. This festival is an important cultural event in Japan, celebrated during April, which coincides with the peak flowering period of cherry blossom trees (Primack et al. 2009). The analysis of the dates shows the trees flowered an average of 7 days earlier from 1971 to 2000 than the average of all earlier records for the species. ...
Pollination is an essential requirement for fruit and seed set. It is, therefore, crucial for crop productivity and sustenance of flowering plant diversity in their natural habitats. Nearly 90% of flowering plants use a range of animals to achieve pollination. Human-induced environmental changes in recent decades have markedly reduced the diversity, density and distribution of pollinators around the world, resulting in global pollinator crisis. The crisis is also threatening the survival of managed pollinators that are being used routinely for decades for pollination services of a large number of crop species grown in monoculture cropping system. Thus, pollination constraints have raised serious concern on the sustenance of crop productivity and plant diversity in the coming decades. Concerted efforts are being made around the world to study pollinator and pollination both in natural and agricultural habitats to mitigate the crisis. Recent approaches have been to use integrated pollination services using the wild as well as managed pollinators for crop species and to make the agricultural and natural habitats favourable for the sustenance of pollinators. Unfortunately, biologists in the tropics in general and India in particular have remained indifferent about pollinators and pollination services of wild as well as pollinator-dependent crop species. Serious efforts are needed to initiate extensive studies on the pollination ecology of our crops and wild species and make all possible efforts to identify and alleviate the pollinator crisis.
... Our collective memory lies in our recordings-in our written texts, artworks, photographs, audio, and videoand in our retellings and reinterpretations of that which becomes history. The relatively recent digitization of historical texts, from books [1][2][3][4] to news [5][6][7][8] to folklore [9][10][11][12] to governmental records [13], has enabled compelling computational analyses across many fields [10,14,15]. But books, news, and other formal records only constitute a specific type of text-carefully edited to deliver a deliberate message to a target audience. ...
... Emerging pop culture trends can also be observed in the anticipation of the first album by a K-pop South Korean band 'SuperM', entitled 'Super One'. 14 In Fig. 5E, we see names of swing states and political candidates come to the fore during the US presidential election held on 2020-11-04. We observe another surge of retweets during the storming of the US Capitol by Trump supporters on 2021-01-06. ...
In real-time, Twitter strongly imprints world events, popular culture, and the day-to-day; Twitter records an ever growing compendium of language use and change; and Twitter has been shown to enable certain kinds of prediction. Vitally, and absent from many standard corpora such as books and news archives, Twitter also encodes popularity and spreading through retweets. Here, we describe Storywrangler, an ongoing, day-scale curation of over 100 billion tweets containing around 1 trillion 1-grams from 2008 to 2020. For each day, we break tweets into 1-, 2-, and 3-grams across 150+ languages, record usage frequencies, and generate Zipf distributions. We make the data set available through an interactive time series viewer, and as downloadable time series and daily distributions. We showcase a few examples of the many possible avenues of study we aim to enable including how social amplification can be visualized through 'contagiograms'.
... Local monitoring can allow researchers to compare phenology among individuals, species, and, if monitoring covers a sufficient environmental gradient across space or time, in changing conditions . Historical records, including naturalist, government, and agricultural observations, allow contemporary researchers to measure changes in phenology over dozens to hundreds of years, and have provided a blueprint for how local-scale phenology monitoring is done (Chuine et al., 2004;Primack et al., 2009;Primack and Miller-Rushing, 2012;Ellwood et al., 2013). For instance, Henry David Thoreau's records of spring flowering and leaf-out out in the 1850s, combined with present-day observations, indicate that many species have advanced their phenology by several weeks Polgar et al., 2014); observations from cherry blossom festivals in Japan show that cherry trees are now flowering earlier than they have in over 1200 years (Primack et al., 2009); and records from the International Phenological Gardens in Europe from 1959-1996 indicate spring leaf-out has advanced and autumn leaf senescence has delayed, resulting in a lengthening of the growing season of around 11 days (Menzel, 2000). ...
... Historical records, including naturalist, government, and agricultural observations, allow contemporary researchers to measure changes in phenology over dozens to hundreds of years, and have provided a blueprint for how local-scale phenology monitoring is done (Chuine et al., 2004;Primack et al., 2009;Primack and Miller-Rushing, 2012;Ellwood et al., 2013). For instance, Henry David Thoreau's records of spring flowering and leaf-out out in the 1850s, combined with present-day observations, indicate that many species have advanced their phenology by several weeks Polgar et al., 2014); observations from cherry blossom festivals in Japan show that cherry trees are now flowering earlier than they have in over 1200 years (Primack et al., 2009); and records from the International Phenological Gardens in Europe from 1959-1996 indicate spring leaf-out has advanced and autumn leaf senescence has delayed, resulting in a lengthening of the growing season of around 11 days (Menzel, 2000). Local-scale observational studies coupled with local meteorological observations can yield suggestions about potential environmental drivers of phenology. ...
Plant ecologists in the Anthropocene are tasked with documenting, interpreting, and predicting how plants respond to environmental change. Phenology, the timing of seasonal biological events including leaf‐out, flowering, fruiting, and leaf senescence, is among the most visible and oft‐recorded facets of plant ecology. Climate‐driven shifts in plant phenology can alter reproductive success, interspecific competition, and trophic interactions. Low‐cost phenology research, including observational records and experimental manipulations, is fundamental to our understanding of both the mechanisms and effects of phenological change in plant populations, species, and communities. Traditions of local‐scale botanical phenology observations and data leveraged from written records and natural history collections provide the historical context for recent observations of changing phenologies. New technology facilitates expanding the spatial, taxonomic, and human interest in this research by combining contemporary field observations by researchers and open access community science (e.g., USA National Phenology Network) and available climate data. Established experimental techniques, such as twig cutting and common garden experiments, are low‐cost methods for studying the mechanisms and drivers of plant phenology, enabling researchers to observe phenological responses under novel environmental conditions. We discuss the strengths, limitations, potential hidden costs (i.e., volunteer and student labor), and promise of each of these methods for addressing emerging questions in plant phenology research. Applied thoughtfully, economically, and creatively, many low‐cost approaches offer novel opportunities to fill gaps in our geographic, taxonomic, and mechanistic understanding of plant phenology worldwide.
... Вопросы изучения фенологии растений обрели особую актуальность в свете оценки влияния изменений климата на разные биологические процессы (Cleland et al., 2007;Morin et al., 2009;Primack et al., 2009;Минин, 2011;Richardson et al., 2013). При этом во многих странах (включая и Россию) имеются сформированные сети фенологического мониторинга. ...
... В Европе уже давно идут процессы интеграции национальных фенологических сетей, унификации методик наблюдений и анализа многолетних рядов фенологических данных (Chmielewski, Rötzer, 2001;Mensel et al., 2006). На территории Азии также имеются развитые фенологические сети в Китае -сеть фенологических наблюдений Китая ( Liu et al., 2014;Ge et al., 2014), Японии -Агентство метеорологии Японии (Doi, Takahashi, 2008;Primack et al., 2009), Южной Кореи -погодный сервис Кореи (Ho et al., 2006;Chung et al., 2009). В России значительный объем фенологических данных накоплен в заповедниках в рамках программы «Летопись природы» (Минин, 2011). ...
Анализ многолетних фенологических трендов растений на территории Баргузинского заповедника с 1960 по 2017 гг. выявил более раннее наступление фенофаз в весенний и летний период и небольшое запаздывание осенью. Наблюдаемые фенологические сдвиги являются синхронными и характерны как для древесных, так и для травянистых растений. Значимые изменения в фенологии растений отмечены с 2010 года и характеризуют отклик растительности на глобальное потепление климата.
Long-term analysis of plant phenological trends in Barguzin reserve from 1960 to 2017 revealed advanced phenology in spring and summer and small delay in autumn. Observed phonological shifts are synchronous and actual for woody and herbaceous species. Significant changes in plant phenology started from 2010 and characterized the response of plants to global climate warming.
... Some species have developed great adaptations to the long-term climate pattern, while others are vulnerable to slight changes. Data from phenological research have shown that global climate change has caused dramatic changes in the phenology of numerous species during the last few decades (Primack, Higuchi and Miller-Rushing, 2009). Temperatures in the air and soil govern different phenophases (Diekmann, 1996), and they vary with latitude, altitude, community type, and plant growth, thus influencing species dispersion. ...
Lilium mackliniae Sealy is an endemic lily of NorthEast India. The changing climate conditions, human activities, and natural resource exploitation have pushed the lily population to the brink of extinction. It has been well documented that the need to conserve L. mackliniae is in its critical stage. Plant phenology is closely correlated with environmental and human-caused factors. Therefore, a well-defined study of phenological traits can aid conservation aims. This paper utilized the BBCH scale to study its phenological characteristic, described by Phenological Growth Stages (PGS) in response to environmental conditions. Our findings can help the researchers as a means of conservation strategies.
... The rate and extent of these changes challenges traditional data collection, making 40 new data sources increasingly important. Hence, we explore the use of social network site (SNS) data 41 to monitor cherry blooms in Japan, a charismatic event that has a high photographic presence and is 42 important for understanding climate change's impact on phenology (Primack, Higuchi et al. 2009, 43 Nagai, Saitoh et al. 2020. This is also an ideal model to bridge SNS and historical data to provide 44 ground truths and evaluate emerging ecological monitoring methods. ...
... Anthropogenic climate change has been shown to induce phenological shifts in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. 113 For example, flowering of cherry trees in Japan has been documented since AD 801 and has shifted to earlier dates since the late nineteenth century 114,115 due to the effects of climate change and urban development. 116 In 2021, the full flowering date was 26 March, the earliest recorded in over 1200 years ( Figure 28). ...
This report shows that, once again, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to reach record levels – contributing to warming of the land and ocean, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, rising sea levels, and warming and acidifying of oceans. There are major gaps in the weather and climate observing networks, especially in the least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing States (SIDS), which is an obstacle for climate baseline monitoring, especially at regional and national scales, and for the provision of early
warning and adequate climate services. WMO works with its members and partners to improve climate observations through the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and by ensuring adequate financial mechanisms for weather and climate observations through the Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF).
... ). An enhanced understanding of urban grassland phenology is important to predict and evaluate vegetation feedback on micro-climate(Penuelas et al., 2010), to understand the timing of ecosystem services to urban inhabitants (reviewed inJochner & Menzel, 2015) and potential ecological mismatches (especially with birds and pollinators)(Primack et al., 2009), as well as effects on human health in relation to allergies(Ziska et al., 2003). ...
Understanding phenological responses of plants to changing temperatures is important because of multiple associated ecological consequences. Cities with their urban heat island can be used as laboratories to study phenological adaptation to climate change. However, previous phenology studies focused on trees and did not disentangle the role of micro-climate and urban structures.
We studied reproductive phenology of dry grassland species in response to micro-climate and urbanization in Berlin, Germany. Phenological stages were recorded weekly at the individual plant level for five native grassland species across 30 dry grassland sites along an urbanization and temperature gradient. We estimated 50% onset probabilities for flowering and seed maturation of populations, and analysed variation in onset dates using regression models.
Early flowering species significantly advanced flowering phenology with increasing mean air temperature but were little influenced by urbanization. By contrast, late-flowering species showed significant phenological responses to both air temperature and urbanization, possibly because micro-climate was most affected by urbanization in late summer. Surprisingly, not all grassland species showed an advanced phenology with increasing intensity of urbanization.
This contradicts observed patterns for urban trees, indicating that phenological shifts in urban areas cannot be generalized from the observation of one growth form or taxonomic group. Growth form appears as a possible determinant of phenological responses. Results suggest that the phenology of dry grassland species may directly respond to the urban heat island, albeit with variable direction and magnitude. This has implications for ecosystem services, shifted allergy seasons, changes of biogeochemical cycles and potential ecological mismatches.
... However, phenological changes of grassland species may affect ecological functions of grassland (Jochner and Menzel 2015). An enhanced understanding of urban grassland phenology is important to predict and evaluate vegetation feedback on micro-climate (Penuelas et al. 2010), to understand the timing of ecosystem services to urban inhabitants (reviewed in Jochner and Menzel 2015) and potential ecological mismatches (especially with birds and pollinators) (Primack et al. 2009), as well as effects on human health in relation to allergies (Ziska et al. 2003). However, the seasonally varying role of the urban heat island on microclimate and thus indirectly on the phenology of different grassland species has not been studied before. ...
Understanding phenological responses of plants to changing temperatures is important because of multiple associated ecological consequences. Cities with their urban heat island can be used as laboratories to study phenological adaptation to climate change. However, previous phenology studies focused on trees and did not disentangle the role of micro-climate and urban structures.
We studied reproductive phenology of dry grassland species in response to micro-climate and urbanization in Berlin, Germany. Phenological stages were recorded weekly at the individual plant level for five native grassland species across 30 dry grassland sites along an urbanization and temperature gradient. We estimated 50% onset probabilities for flowering and seed maturation of populations, and analysed variation in onset dates using regression models.
Early flowering species significantly advanced flowering phenology with increasing mean air temperature but were little influenced by urbanization. By contrast, late-flowering species showed significant phenological responses to both air temperature and urbanization, possibly because micro-climate was most affected by urbanization in late summer. Surprisingly, not all grassland species showed an advanced phenology with increasing intensity of urbanization.
This contradicts observed patterns for urban trees, indicating that phenological shifts in urban areas cannot be generalized from the observation of one growth form or taxonomic group. Growth form appears as a possible determinant of phenological responses. Results suggest that the phenology of dry grassland species may directly respond to the urban heat island, albeit with variable direction and magnitude. This has implications for ecosystem services, shifted allergy seasons, changes of biogeochemical cycles and potential ecological mismatches.
... Air temperature (Ta) can be used as an indicator of EOS in many terrestrial ecosystems [39][40][41] . As Ta decreases in late autumn, plant hormone abscisic acid (ABA) starts to form [42,43] and chlorophyll degradation occurs [6,[44][45][46] . Therefore, it is a promising method to develop the EOS monitoring algorithm by combing VIs and Ta [47][48][49] . ...
Phenology exercises a critical control on annual terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake and indicates interaction between climate and vegetation. Solely vegetation index is insufficient to accurately detect the end of growing season (EOS). Soil temperature (
T<sub>s</sub>
) plays a modulating role in soil microbial functioning and plant growth, while its impact on EOS remains largely unknown. Hence, we compared the potential between
T<sub>s</sub>
and air temperature (
T<sub>a</sub>
) as the indicators of EOS by using flux data from 14 deciduous broadleaf forests, 24 evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF), 7 mixed forests, and 23 nonforests over Northern temperate and boreal regions (30°–60°N) for 2001–2014. The widely used NDVI-based double-logistic approach failed to capture EOS variability for these ecosystems, and we derived a new EOS algorithm with a soil temperature-based scaler, which improved the EOS modeling for all plant functional types. We found that
T<sub>s</sub>
at different depths showed varied abilities for EOS modeling, and
T<sub>s</sub>
at the 0–10 cm depth provided the best estimates of EOS in terms of both numbers of significant sites and the correlation coefficients (
R
). Estimated EOS occurred earlier by on average 2.9 days than the current MODIS phenology product for ∼56.5% pixels, especially for the ENF ecosystems (∼5.5 days). Our study suggests the usefulness of surface soil temperature for autumn leaf senescence phenology modeling, and that combination of environmental variables with the current modeling strategy can improve our understanding of autumn phenology with future climate change.
... Given its fleeting appearance, understanding its timing is critical in countries like Japan and South Korea, where spring festivals are vital to the local economy [1]. A warming climate leads to earlier flowering times and poses a challenge to predictability [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Besides tourism, the sensitivity of tree phenology to rising temperatures would also have knock-on effects on crop-tree farming and land management practises [12][13][14]. ...
The full flowering of Kyoto’s cherry trees in 2021 was observed on the 26th of March, the earliest date recorded in over 1200 years. An early shift of the flowering season is consistent with Kyoto’s warming climate and could have serious repercussions for the local economy. It is therefore crucial to assess how human activity impacts flowering dates and alters the likelihood of extremely early flowering. To make this assessment, our study combines a risk-based attribution methodology with a phenological model that estimates full flowering dates from daily temperature data. We employ 14 state-of-the-art climate models that provide ensembles of simulations with and without the effect of anthropogenic forcings, and, using the simulated temperatures at Kyoto, we obtain representations of the cherry flowering season under different climatic conditions. An observationally-based correction is also applied to the simulated temperatures to introduce the effect of urban warming. We find a significant anthropogenic shift in the mean flowering season of over a week, about half of which is due to urban warming. By the end of the century and under medium emissions, the early shift is estimated to further increase by almost a week. Extremely early flowering dates, as in 2021, would be rare without human influence, but are now estimated to be 15 times more likely, and are expected to occur at least once a century. Such events are projected to occur every few years by 2100 when they would no longer be considered extreme.
... In Manyoshu, an anthology of poetry published in the 7th and 8th centuries in Japan, wild cherries are praised many times for their beauty. Moreover, wild cherries appeared frequently in ancient writings, plays, arts, and festivals (Sato 2005;Primack et al. 2009;Sakurai et al. 2011;Katsuki 2015). Thus, in Japan, wild cherries have a unique significance in supporting relationships between humans and nature. ...
Charismatic organisms are often used as symbols of nature-based community development. Understanding value perceptions of ecosystems services provided by symbolic species is important because such perceptions often influence land management and cultural associations between people and nature. Here, we aimed to characterize local perceptions of social values for ecosystem services of wild cherries in Sakuragawa city, Japan. The city has long been renowned for the beautiful traditional landscape of its flowering wild cherries and is involved in various conservation activities as a part of regional planning. We administered a questionnaire survey to three socio-cultural groups: local residents, tourists, and high school students; their responses were analyzed by using SolVES. Value perceptions of ecosystem services provided by wild cherries differed considerably among these groups. The residents and tourists ranked the value ‘aesthetic in spring’ as highest, whereas high school students ranked many values equally. In addition, most of the students confused wild cherry trees with the popular cultivar ‘Somei-yoshino’. The students’ more limited knowledge of wild cherries may have affected their value perceptions. Looking at the spatial distribution of perceived values, local residents and tourists highly valued the specific sites famous for their wild cherry scenery. In contrast, students did not value such sites and perceived more value in urbanized areas. Although symbolic species help to develop the perceived value of nature, filling a knowledge gap and sharing a variety of values within local communities is important for promoting community-based management of traditional forest landscapes characterized by wild cherries.
... The dates of celebration of the cherry blossom festival, an important cultural event in Japan that coincides with the peak of flowering period of this species and for which > 1000 years of historical records are available, has shown advances in the dates of the festival in recent decades (Primack et al. 2009). The records between 1971 and 2000 showed that the trees flowered an average of 7 days earlier than all the earlier years (Allen et al. 2013). ...
Climate change refers to the long-term changes in temperature and weather due to human activities. Increase in average global temperature and extreme and unpredictable weather are the most common manifestations of climate change. In recent years, it has acquired the importance of global emergency and affecting not only the wellbeing of humans but also the sustainability of other lifeforms. Enormous increase in the emission of greenhouse gases (CO2, methane and nitrous oxide) in recent decades largely due to burning of coal and fossil fuels, and deforestation are the main drivers of climate change. Marked increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, rise in sea level, decrease in crop productivity and loss of biodiversity are the main consequences of climate change. Obvious mitigation measures include significant reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases and increase in the forest cover of the landmass. Conference of Parties (COP 21), held in Paris in 2015 adapted, as a legally binding treaty, to limit global warming to well below 2 °C, preferably to 1.5 °C by 2100, compared to pre-industrial levels. However, under the present emission scenario, the world is heading for a 3–4 °C warming by the end of the century. This was discussed further in COP 26 held in Glasgow in November 2021; many countries pledged to reach net zero carbon emission by 2050 and to end deforestation, essential requirements to keep 1.5 °C target. However, even with implementation of these pledges, the rise is expected to be around 2.4 °C. Additional measures are urgently needed to realize the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 °C and to sustain biodiversity and human welfare.
... Changes in seasonal growth cycles of trees, or tree phenology, have consequences across a broad range of sectors, from wildlife to hydrology to human health and well-being. For wildlife, shifting tree phenology has strong links with herbivory (Korösi et al., 2018), habitat provisioning (Evans et al., 2016), migratory patterns (Tryjnowski et al., 2013), and community level interactions (Primack et al., 2009;Walther et al., 2002). For humans, altered tree phenology influences water movement and infiltration (Xiao and McPherson, 2002), cooling capacity (Stanley et al., 2019) and other ecosystem services (Tzoulas et al., 2007). ...
Trees are bioindicators of global climate change and regional urbanization, but available monitoring tools are ineffective for fine-scale observation of many species. Using six accelerometers mounted on two urban ash trees (Fraxinus americana), we looked at high-frequency tree vibrations, or change in periodicity of tree sway as a proxy for mass changes, to infer seasonal patterns of flowering and foliage (phenophases). We compared accelerometer-estimated phenophases to those derived from digital repeat photography using Green Chromatic Coordinates (GCC) and visual observation of phenophases defined by the USA National Phenology Network (NPN). We also drew comparisons between two commercial accelerometers and assessed how placement height influenced the ability to extract seasonal transition dates. Most notably, tree sway data showed a greenness signal in an urban environment and produced a clear flowering time-series and peak flowering signal (PF), marking the first observations of a flower phenophase using accelerometer data. Estimated start of spring (SOS) from accelerometers and time-lapse GCC were more similar than start of autumn (SOA); accelerometers lagged behind the time-lapse camera dates by three and four days for SOS and 13 and 14 days for SOA for each tree. Estimates for SOS and SOA from accelerometers and time-lapse cameras aligned closely with different NPN phenophases. The two commercial accelerometers produced similar season onset: a difference of 2.4 to 3.8 days for SOS, 2.1 days for SOA, and 0.5 to 2.0 days for PF. Accelerometers placed at the main crown branch point versus higher in the canopy showed a difference of 0.2 to 4.9 days for SOS and -1.5 to 1.7 days for PF. Our results suggest accelerometers present a novel opportunity to objectively monitor reproductive tree biology and fill gaps in phenology observations. Furthermore, widely available accelerometers show promise for scaling up from individual trees to the landscape level to aid forest management and assessing climate change impacts to tree phenology.
... Moreover, the flowering period of cherry blossoms is highly sensitive to climate change. The mean monthly temperature in Japan has risen by 1.8°C over the last 25 years, and the flowering period of cherry blossoms has advanced by 5.5 days on average (Miller-Rushing et al., 2007;Primack et al., 2009). The statistical data of cherry blossom viewing tourism tourist volume remains rare. ...
The lack of high-resolution tourist volume data for specific types of tourism activities poses a substantial obstacle to quantitatively assessing the impacts of climate change. Here, a new method of generating daily tourist volume for cherry blossom viewing tourism from user-generated content (UGC) was proposed, based on which the daily tourist volume for cherry blossom viewing in 220 cities across China from 2010 to 2019 was generated and verified. Then, generalized additive model (GAM) and segmented regression were introduced to reveal the non-linear and threshold relationships between daily tourist volume and temperature. Finally, the trends in the daily tourist volume from 2020 to 2050 were simulated under two future climate change scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, SSP). The proposed method can provide methodological support for analyzing other specific types of tourism activities by generating alternative data on tourist volume. ARTICLE HISTORY
... Native annual flowering plants are often measured, but these data can be problematic to interpret because of the year-to-year variation of the plants measured and their physical location (microclimate). For this (Lechowicz & Koike, 1995 (Kramer et al., 2000;Keatley et al., 2002;Chmielewski et al., 2004;Lu et al., 2006;Miller-Rushing et al., 2007;Doi & Katano, 2008;Guedon & Legave, 2008;Primack et al., 2009;Vitasse et al., 2009). Other works on blossoming of apples have shown a significant relation between increasing spring temperatures and their influence on the pheno-phases (Chmielewski et al., 2004;Doi, 2007;Miller-Rushing et al., 2007;Doi & Katano, 2008), and in some circumstances, flowering is most sensitive to mean temperatures during the month before average blossoming date (Lu et al., 2006). ...
Climate-related threats are becoming even more evident worldwide. However, the vulnerability to climate change is underestimated mainly due to the lack of an established and globally standardized set of indicators that measure the effects of climate change. There is a lack of awareness, particularly in microclimatic variability in big and small valleys of the Himalaya. In this study, environmental and socioeconomic indicators have been selected to study the impacts of climate change in Kashmir Valley. The indicators like temperature, precipitation, and receding of glaciers are particularly useful in summarizing the effectiveness of climate change studies. Comparisons with a collection of baseline results demonstrate the immediate effects of climate change. Information extracted from such climate change metrics will lead to policy-making at the national, regional, and local levels for successful conservation strategies.
... The flowering of Siamese oranges as a reproductive event is the main key to fruit production. The stage after the flowers bloom, the next process is the formation of young fruit (Pau et al., 2011;Pieri et al., 2010;Primack et al., 2009). Approximately 36 weeks or 252 days after the flowers bloom, the Siamese citrus plant will form ready-to-harvest fruit, both in the gadu and intermittent observation period. ...
The productivity of citrus plants in Indonesia is still low. This is due to the insufficient land used for citrus cultivation. Besides, several factors influence the production and quality of citrus, namely genetics, cultivation, and post-harvest handling, as well as other environmental factors, namely land. Environmental factors that affect the production and quality of citrus are soil and climate. Soil factors include altitude, topography, drainage, soil type, soil physical properties, and soil chemical properties, while climatic factors include rainfall and temperature. On a large scale, these environmental factors are difficult to modify, so to avoid the risk of damage and death, citrus plants are recommended to be planted on suitable land. The purpose of land suitability research is also intended to increase the production and quality of oranges.
... (Koike et al., 2008;Thompson & Willson, 1979) y con poca variación interanual (Jeanneret & Rutishauser, 2010;Taylor, 1974) tal como lo encontrado en la mayoría de las fenofases de P. lundelliana. Sin embargo, hay especies que no siguen este patrón (Fidalgo, 2019;Heiling & Gilbert, 2016) y otras donde el cambio climático está provocando variaciones (Doi, 2007;Kai et al., 1993;Primack et al., 2009). ...
La fenología estudia los cambios estacionales en los ciclos de vida de los organismos. Una utilidad de la fenología, es que permite establecer periodos en que se pueden colectar semillas para programas de restauración ecológica. Por lo que, de abril de 2017 a mayo de 2019, en el volcán Tacaná, San Marcos, Guatemala, se estableció la estacionalidad, variación anual, sincronía, intensidad y duración de las fenofases reproductivas de Prunus lundelliana Standl. Aproximadamente cada 15 días, en 10 individuos se registró la presencia e intensidad de las flores (botones y abiertas) y frutos (inmaduros y maduros). Los datos se analizaron con estadística circular, encontrándose que todas la fenofases fueron estacionales y que solo el patrón de los frutos inmaduros varió significativamente entre los dos periodos. La sincronía fue principalmente alta y la intensidad no superó el 40%. En ambos periodos las intensidades menores las presentaron los frutos maduros (17 y 25%). Los índices de actividad e intensidad se correlacionaron significativamente, por lo que los ángulos medios fueron semejantes en las fenofases y periodos de estudio. Los picos de actividad-intensidad de las flores abiertas y de los frutos maduros ocurrieron durante los meses secos (noviembre-abril), patrón que se ha registrado en otros bosques nubosos. La duración de las fenofases varió entre 2.5-3.5 meses, siendo la más pequeña la de frutos maduros. Para fines de manejo, la colecta de frutos maduros puede hacerse desde mediados de
marzo hasta finales de mayo, sin embargo, se sugiere hacerlo principalmente entre el 15 de abril y el 15 de mayo.
... For example, the timing of cherry blossoming has been recorded in Kyoto for 1200 years, so long that they have been used in climate reconstructions (Aono & Kazui, 2008). Centuries-long phenology data also exist for other plant and animal species across Japan (Primack et al., 2009). Kobori et al. (2016) also cite examples in the UK, in particular the study of Ivan and Margary (1926), where, in 1736, Robert Marsham started recording 27 phenological events, such as first flowering, leafing and the appearance of migratory birds, for more than 20 common plant and animal species in his family estates in Norfolk. ...
With the impulse to control and order the disorderly, the threads or tributaries of affect and emotion, which mimic the meanderings of the aquifer itself, are often oversimplified or ignored. These are not anomalies of citizen science (CS) but ‘normal’ and expected ‘disconnects’ that surface when working within a multidisciplinary environment. The article adds value to current discourse on CS by reflecting on the confusing configurations and shifting allegiances that are part and parcel of CS experience. In presenting research from a current project in the Hout Catchment, Limpopo Province in South Africa, it suggests that CS is often oversimplified and does not capture the array of emotions that emerge at multiple scales around CS projects. The authors reflect on the field, which is fraught, fragile and fleeting—and on the intrusions into the field—similar itself to an aquifer with its dykes and flows. Considering CS within the frame of feminist philosophy, it is emancipatory and personally transformative with the element of ‘surprise’ that the end point is undetermined—and the process, however much ‘planned’ is unknown. CS in this instance is a powerful tool for creating virtuous cycles of inclusion and equality and promoting sustainable development through improved water literacy through a grassroot, out-of-the-classroom pedagogy.
... According to [83], early flowering plays an important role in determining plant reproduction and pollen limitations by increasing the probability of experiencing frost damage. In addition, a delay or shortening of the flowering period can have a significant influence on the pollination process by affecting the available time of pollen and the sharing of pollen [84]. Differences in the timing of phenological events between urban and rural areas can lead to reproductive isolation, especially with plants that have a short flowering period [29]. ...
Urbanization and the resulting increase in development areas and populations cause micro-climate changes such as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This micro-climate change can affect vegetation phenology. It can advance leaf unfolding and flowering and delay the timing of fallen leaves. This study was carried out to clarify the impact of urbanization on the leaf unfolding of Mongolian oak. The survey sites for this study were established in the urban center (Mts. Nam, Mido, and Umyeon in Seoul), suburbs (Mts. Cheonggye and Buram in Seoul), a rural area (Gwangneung, Mt. Sori in Gyeonggi-do), and a natural area (Mt. Jeombong in Gangwon-do). Green-up dates derived from the analyses of digital camera images and MODIS satellite images were the earliest in the urban center and delayed through the suburbs and rural area to the natural area. The difference in the observed green-up date compared to the expected one, which was determined by regarding the Mt. Jeombong site located in the natural area as the reference site, was the biggest in the urban center and decreased through the suburbs and rural area to the natural area. Green-up dates in the rural area, suburbs, and urban center were earlier by 11.0, 14.5, and 16.3 days than the expected ones. If these results are transformed into the air temperature based on previous research results, it could be deduced that the air temperature in the urban center, suburbs, and rural area rose by 3.8 to 4.6 °C, 3.3 to 4.1 °C, and 2.5 to 3.1 °C, respectively. Green-up dates derived based on the accumulated growing degree days (AGDD) showed the same trend as those derived from the image interpretation. Green-up dates derived from the change in sap flow as a physiological response of the plant showed a difference within one day from the green-up dates derived from digital camera and MODIS satellite image analyses. The change trajectory of the curvature K value derived from the sap flow also showed a very similar trend to that of the curvature K value derived from the vegetation phenology. From these results, we confirm the availability of AGDD and sap flow as tools predicting changes in ecosystems due to climate change including phenology. Meanwhile, the green-up dates in survey sites were advanced in proportion to the land use intensity of each survey site. Green-up dates derived based on AGDD were also negatively correlated with the land use intensity of the survey site. This result implies that differences in green-up dates among the survey sites and between the expected and observed green-up dates in the urban center, suburbs, and rural area were due to the increased temperature due to land use in the survey sites. Based on these results, we propose conservation and restoration of nature as measures to reduce the impact of climate change.
... In China, citizens and officials have documented locust outbreaks for 3,500 years (Tian et al. 2011). Court diarists in Japan have documented cherry blossom festivals for 1,200 years (Primack et al. 2009). Winegrowers in France have documented dates of their grape harvests for over 640 years (Chuine et al. 2004). ...
Citizen science, which has contributed greatly to scientific understanding, works through partnerships between non-governmental and governmental organizations, academia, and most importantly, volunteers. In the United States, Master Naturalist training programs prepare adults as knowledgeable environmental stewards. Once certified, Master Naturalists are encouraged to log annual volunteer activity hours involving scientific research and education. Compared to untrained volunteers, individuals who have completed Master Naturalist training (or similar programs) exhibit greater project involvement and efficiency at collecting data. These traits align well with the goals of citizen science and point to a symbiotic relationship between citizen science and Master Naturalist programs. Here, we convey how Master Naturalist programs benefit citizen science and provide guidelines for individuals who wish to pursue citizen science projects or programming to produce high quality citizen scientists.
... times have been recorded since 850 (Primack et al., 2009) or grapes, whose harvest dates in Burgundy have been recorded since 1370 (Chuine et al., 2004). ...
Premise:
State-sponsored weather stations became ubiquitous by the 1880s, yet many old climate data and phenological observations still need to be digitized and made accessible.
Methods:
We here make available flowering times for 450 species of herbs and shrubs gathered in 1844 by Carl Friedrich Philipp von Martius (1794-1868), director of the Munich Botanical Garden. The data formed part of the world's third-oldest phenological monitoring network as we explain in a brief overview of the history of such networks. Using data from one of the world's oldest continuously functioning weather stations, Hohenpeißenberg, we relate temperature to flowering in three species with short flowering times and herbarium collections made since 1844 within the city's perimeter, namely, Anemone patens, A. pulsatilla, and Arum maculatum.
Results:
Mean advances in flowering dates were 1.3-2.1 days/decade or 3.2-4.2 days/1°C warming. These advances are in keeping with similar advances in other European herbs during more recent periods.
Conclusions:
Future studies might use the 1844 flowering data made available here as a source of information on the availability of particular flowers for specialized pollinators including insects looking for oviposition sites, such as the Psychoda flies that become trapped in Arum inflorescences. Another use of Martius's 1844 data would be their incorporation into larger-scale analyses of flowering in southern-central Europe.
... amateur natural historians) documenting diversity and change in the natural world. Historical archives have revealed examples dating back several millennia, such as Japanese officials, journalists and botanists carefully monitoring the phenology of the cherry blossom (Primack et al., 2009). Ornithology is another example of a field of natural history with a strong tradition of involvement of dedicated volunteers (Greenwood, 2007), with regular birdwatchers and long-running projects like the Christmas Bird Count (National Audubon Society, n.d.) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (Hudson et al., 2017) contributing to our understanding and protection of bird populations across the world. ...
Human actions may be responsible for much destruction of nature, but it can also be a key solution. Around the world countless volunteers take action for nature: through citizen science, through activities such as planting trees, by organizing excursions, you name it. But who are these nature volunteers? What is it they do, and why do they do it? These questions are rarely asked. This thesis aims to answer these questions based on several surveys among large numbers of Dutch green volunteers.
Contributing to nature conservation and a personal connection to nature were found to be key motivations for the volunteers, regardless of their activities. Other diverse motivations also play a role: these include being outside, learning about nature and working together with others. In terms of profile, the high average age and level of education among the respondents is notable.
(Re)connecting humans and nature is urgent and important, how can we stimulate this? Suggestions for nature organisations include further strengthening their support and appreciation of their volunteers. In addition, appealing to diverse motivations can help enthuse a wider public.
... The flowers blossom an average of 7 days earlier compared with records before 1970. 47 For a nearly 50-year dataset from a Europe-wide network , the International Phenological Gardens reported an increase in annual growing season by approximately 11 days. 48 A detailed compilation of the effects of 2 environmental factors, increased CO 2 and temperature, alone or in combination, on the flowering times of a wide range of flowering species and specific ecosystems has been analyzed and reported. ...
Increased levels of CO2 and various greenhouse gases cause global warming and, in combination with pollutants from fossil fuel combustion and vehicular and industrial emissions, have been driving increases in noncommunicable diseases across the globe, resulting a higher mortality and morbidity. Respiratory diseases and associated allergenic manifestations have increased worldwide, with rates higher in developing countries. Pollen allergy serves as a model for studying the relationship between air pollution and respiratory disorders. Climate changes affect the quality and amount of airborne allergenic pollens, and pollutants alter their allergenicity, resulting in greater health impacts, especially in sensitized individuals.
... For phenological traits that are at least partly cued by temperature, there are many well-documented examples, some extending decades to centuries, of shifts in the timing and length of lifecycle events, such as plant flowering (Primack et al. 2009), butterfly development (Roy and Sparks 2000), and bird migration (Cotton 2003), in response to global change. These patterns lead to the prediction that phenological events should generally advance with urbanization due to the UHI effect. ...
As humans continue to modify the climatic conditions organisms encounter, downstream effects on the phenotypes of organisms are likely to arise. In particular, the worldwide proliferation of human settlements rapidly generates pockets of localized warming across the landscape. These urban heat island effects are frequently intense, especially for moderate to larger sized cities, where urban centres can be several degrees Celsius warmer compared with nearby non-urban areas. Although organisms likely ameliorate the effects of warming through phenotypic plasticity, the evolution of thermally sensitive traits may be an important yet underappreciated means of survival. Recent work suggests the potential for contemporary evolutionary change in association with urban heat islands across a diverse suite of traits from morphology to physiological tolerance, growth rate, and metabolism. This chapter reviews and synthesizes this work. It first develops a comprehensive set of predictions for adaptive evolutionary changes in morphology, physiology, and life-history traits driven by urban heat islands. It then evaluates these predictions with regard to the burgeoning literature on urban evolution of thermally sensitive traits.
... There have also been related changes in seasonality in many areas, especially with an earlier onset of the spring season (Andresen et al., 2013). In Japan, for example, Primack et al. (2009) reconstructed a climate series based on cherry blossom festivals back to the ninth century and concluded that cherries are currently flowering earlier than they have at any time during the previous 1200 yr. In the Great Lakes region of North America, the seasonal spring warm-up is also occurring earlier on average than in the past, trending as much as 10 d earlier in just the past 30 yr, which has in turn has advanced the dates of budbreak and other phenological stages of most perennial crops, potentially leaving them more vulnerable to subsequent cold injury (Fig. 5). ...
... Fenologi buah-buahan seperti apel, cheri, pear dan bits mengalami perubahan akibat peningkatan suhu udara (Chmielewski et al. 2004). Hal yang sama juga dilaporkan pada tanaman anggur di berbagai belahan dunia (Pieri et al. 2012;Jones and Alves 2012;Webb et al. 2012;Ramos 2017;Primack et al. 2009;Guédon and Legave 2008). ...
p>Climate change has significant negative impact on agriculture in tropical region. Inrecent years, research on climate change has focused mainly on food crops while horticultural crops have received little attention. This paper is an overview of Indonesian future climate projection for precipitation, temperature and extreme climate, climate change impact and adaptation strategies on vegetable and fruit crops and future challenge for horticultural development under climate change. The climate change will decrease crop productivity and quality, increase the incidence of new pest and disease, and the outbreaks on vegetable and fruit crops. Further climate change will disrupt water availability, alter climate-crop suitability and cause crop failure due to extreme climate. Several adaptation measures have been developed in farming system, among other adjustment of planting time, using resistant varieties to environmental strees, adopting irrigation technology for efficient water use, using green house and increasing farmers and extention service capacity through climate field school. For future research it is necessary to assess climate projections with several scenarios and Global Circular Models (GCMs) and their impact on future vegetable and fruits crops by developing crop modeling which should be given a priority of in agriculture. This information crucially needed for adaptation strategy and a long term agricultural planning in the future.
Keywords: Vegetable, fruit, climate change, global circular model, adaptation
Abstrak
Perubahan iklim berdampak negatif terhadap pertanian di daerah tropis. Selama ini penelitian dampak perubahan iklim terhadap pertanian lebih banyak dilakukan pada tanaman pangan, sementara pada tanaman hortikultura, khususnya sayuran dan buah-buahan masih terbatas. Tulisan ini merupakan tinjauan tentang proyeksi dampak perubahan iklim di Indonesia yang meliputi curah hujan, suhu udara, dan iklim ekstrim terhadap produksi tanaman buah dan sayuran, di samping berbagai upaya adaptasi yang telah dilakukan dan tantangan pembangunan hortikultura ke depan. Perubahan iklim pada tanaman sayuran dan buah-buahan terbukti menurunkan kuantitas dan kualitas produksi, munculnya hama penyakit baru, meningkatnya serangan hama dan penyakit, gagal panen, penurunan kapasitas air irigasi, perubahan kesesuian lahan dan tanaman. Beberapa langkah adaptasi yang sudah dilakukan yaitu penyesuaian sistem usaha tani yang meliputi penggunaan varietas toleran cekaman lingkungan, penyesuian waktu tanam, penggunaan teknik irigasi hemat air, pengembangan teknologi pencarian sumber daya air baru, penggunaan rumah kasa/rumah plastik, peningkatan kemampuan petani dan penyuluh dalam memahami perubahan iklim melalui sekolah lapang. Ke depan masih perlu dilakukan kajian proyeksi iklim dengan berbagai skenario dan berbagai Global circular model (GCM) serta kajian dampak perubahan iklim terhadap tanaman sayur dan buah unggulan melalui pengembangan pemodelan sistem usaha tani. Informasi proyeksi dampak perubahan iklim diperlukan sebagai upaya adaptasi dan perencanaan pembangunan pertanian yang dikaitkan dengan perubahan iklim.
Kata kunci: Buah-buahan, sayuran, perubahan iklim, global circular model, adaptasi </p
... The issue of climate change has received considerable attention in recent years due to its potential to affect the precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration components of the hydrological cycle (Attarod et al., 2015;Liang et al., 2008). Many natural disasters associated with changes in hydrological processes due to the climate change have led to major problems in Japan (Iizumi et al., 2012;Kawagoe et al., 2010;Mouri et al., 2012;Primark et al., 2009;Shiono et al., 2013). Japan is likely to experience more Correspondence to: Fereshteh Ghiami-Shomami, Graduate School of Engineering, Department of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Gifu University, Yanagido 1-1, Gifu 501-1193, Japan. ...
Estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is important in hydrological studies. As climate change is predicted to cause changes in water resources and agriculture sectors, the possible implications of changes in different climate variables on ET0 need to be understood. Sensitivity analysis was employed to illustrate the effects of perturbation in meteorological parameters (maximum and minimum air temperature (Tmax and Tmin), sunshine hours (n), maximum and minimum relative humidity (RHmax and RHmin)) and wind speed (uz) on ET0. ET0 was calculated by The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 56 Penman-Monteith approach using climate data from 1979–2017 for the Enbara and Futatsumori watersheds in forested mountain areas in Japan. We quantified the contributions of climatic factors to ET0 at daily, monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. Daily results showed large fluctuations. According to the monthly and seasonal analysis, during warm seasons, Tmax and n had more influence on ET0, especially in May, while for the cold seasons, RH effect was dominant, especially in December. Based on the annual results, the factors most influencing ET0 were Tmax followed by n, uz, RH and Tmin. We also found that the response of ET0 to changes in climatic parameters differs for sites with different topographic and geographic characteristics.
... Means ± SD (standard deviation) are given. Means followed by the same lower-case letter are not significantly different between years within cultivars, and values followed by the same capital letter are not significantly different between cultivars, at p = 0.05 based on Tukey's HSD test conditions or even climate change affecting the tree flowering period (Primack et al., 2009). P. serrulata 'Kanzan' and P. serrulata 'Amanogawa' are characterized by a mass floral display (Kato et al., 2012). ...
Planting ornamental species can help to create pollinator-friendly habitats. In the present study the flowering phenology and floral reward (nectar and pollen) in two cultivars of Prunus serrulata (‘Kanzan’ and ‘Amanogawa’) were evaluated in 2014-2015 in the city of Lublin (south-east Poland). On average, the onset of flowering of P. serrulata occurred in the first ten days of April (‘Kanzan’) or at the end of April (‘Amanogawa’), and lasted 8-17 days. In each year of the study, P. serrulata ‘Kanzan’ started flowering 11-18 days earlier than P. serrulata ‘Amanogawa’. The double flowers of P. serrulata ‘Kanzan’ offered only tiny amounts of nectar and pollen. The total mass of sugars was 0.59 mg per flower and that of pollen 0.08 mg per flower. The semi-double flowers of P. serrulata ‘Amanogawa’ produced 4.5 mg of sugars per flower and 0.17 mg of pollen per flower. The frequency of pollinator visits to flowers was low in P. serrulata ‘Amanogawa’ and very low in P. serrulata ‘Kanzan’. Therefore, if pollinator-friendly arrangements are made in urban areas, these cultivars should not be planted.
... However, recent changes in climate and disturbance regimes are affecting ecosystem functions, such as net primary productivity, phenology, and post-disturbance succession. Phenological variability and trends affect park resource management through impacts on predator-prey, plant-herbivore, and plant-pollinator interactions [12][13][14]; species' phenotypic mismatch and resulting food web disruption and biodiversity loss [15][16][17]; large-scale movements of herbivores tracking green-up-associated resource waves [18]; spread of invasive species with flexible phenologies and need for mechanical removal or herbicide application [19,20]; and altered timing of cultural festivals linked to flower displays and migrations [14,21]. According to the green wave hypothesis, plant phenology critically shapes the resource landscape and migratory ungulates are found to track the green wave, with implications of climate change affecting the persistence of migratory taxa [18]. ...
The study’s objective was to quantify the responses of vegetation greenness and productivity to climate variability and change across complex topographic, climatic, and ecological gradients in Yellowstone National Park through the use of remotely sensed data. The climate change signal in Yellowstone was pronounced, including substantial warming, an abrupt decline in snowpack, and more frequent droughts. While phenological studies are increasing in Yellowstone, the near absence of long-term and continuous ground-based phenological measurements motivated the study’s application of remotely sensed data to aid in identifying ecological vulnerabilities and guide resource management in light of on ongoing environmental change. Correlation, time-series, and empirical orthogonal function analyses for 1982–2015 focused on Daymet data and vegetation indices (VIs) from the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The study’s key questions address unique time scales. First, what are the dominant meteorological drivers of variability in vegetation greenness on seasonal to interannual time scales? Key results include: (1) Green-up is the most elevation- and climate-sensitive phenological stage, with La Niña-induced cool, wet conditions or an anomalously deep snowpack delaying the green-up wave. (2) Drought measures were the dominant contributors towards phenological variability, as winter–spring drought corresponded to enhanced April–June greening and spring–summer drought corresponded to reduced August–September greening. Second, how have patterns of productivity changed in response to climate change and disturbances? Key results include: (1) The park predominantly exhibited positive productivity trends, associated with lodgepole pine re-establishment and growth following the 1988 fires. (2) Landscapes which were undisturbed by the 1988 fires showed no apparent sign of warming-induced greening. This study motivates a systematic investigation of remote-sensing data across western parks to identify ecological vulnerabilities and support the development of climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies.
... Previous studies have considered the temperature before flowering an important factor determining the flowering time in flowering cherry cultivars (Maruoka and Itoh, 2009;Aono and Saito, 2010;Ohashi et al., 2012). Several forecasting methods for blooming dates have been presented (Omoto and Aono, 1989;Aono and Omoto, 1990;Ishii, 1990;Aono and Moriya, 2003), as have several models and predictions of the effects on these dates by global warming or urbanization Miller-Rushing et al., 2007;Primack et al., 2009). Temperature affects the annual variation in flowering date of each cultivar/variety; however, variation between varieties is critically large. ...
... Trees show strong acclimation potential to temperature change (and subsequent changes in vapor pressure deficit, VPD), although contradictory responses have been observed depending on the species (Way and Oren 2010) and background climate (e.g., Linderholm 2006, Adams et al. 2015. For example, experimental and observational studies have found enhanced or reduced metabolic and photosynthetic productivity (Larcher 2003, Garcia-Forner et al. 2016, advanced or slowed phenology due to shifts in the growing season (Linderholm 2006, Primack et al. 2009, Adams et al. 2015 or modifications of structural foliar traits (Grossiord et al. 2017a) in response to warming. ...
The leaf area to sapwood area ratios of trees (A l :A S) can shift to maintain homeostatic gas exchange per unit leaf area in response to climate variability. We tested the hypothesis that trees alter their A l :A S ratios in response to long-term warming and reduced precipitation in order to maintain leaf-specific gas exchange rates under more stressful conditions. Whole-tree A l :A S was measured on mature piñon pine (Pinus edulis Engelm.) and one-seed juniper (Juniperus monosperma (Engelm.) Sarg.) trees after 5 years (2012-16) of chronic exposure to increased temperature (+4.8 °C), precipitation reduction (−45%), or both simultaneously. No difference was found in A l :A s among treatments for either species. Associated with this lack of shift in A l :A s were large changes in pre-dawn leaf water potential and stomatal conductance, consistent with theoretical expectations of interactions between leaf and whole-tree hydraulic supply. Our results suggest that a lack of whole-tree acclimation in A l :A s results in the reductions in plant gas exchange and water status associated with long-term warming and reduced precipitation in semi-arid woodlands.
... According to the ITTA, tropical timber is defined as nonconiferous tropical timber for industrial uses, which is produced in the countries situated between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn (ITTA 1994). Typical tropical timber species, as considered by the ITTA, are, for example, mahogany, meranti, rosewood or virola. 2 Non-tropical hardwood timber species, which also occur in tropical forests, are, for example, oak, beech, cherry and ash (Nixon, 2006;Peters, 1997;Primack, Higuchi, & Miller-Rushing, 2009;Singh, Malik, & Sharma, 2016). Tropical and non-tropical hardwood is typically used for furniture making, boat building and flooring. ...
This paper addresses the impact of sustainability in production on international trade. In particular, it examines the effect of the International Tropical Timber Agreement (ITTA) on tropical timber trade. The empirical analysis is based on a gravity equation in a difference‐in‐difference setting, which is estimated by a panel Heckman's selection model. This accounts for the potentially systematic selection of trading partners into timber trade activity. We then conduct a comprehensive comparative static analysis solving the structural gravity model with and without the ITTA. This allows us to determine the trade impact of an ITTA‐induced increase in sustainability for participating as well as for third countries. We find that countries participating in the ITTA exhibit a significant and substantial increase in trade values ranging from 4% to 6%. Furthermore, we observe that this effect is more pronounced for smaller member countries. Non‐ITTA countries are confronted with reduced values of tropical timber trade flows.
Anthropogenic climate changes have many impacts on plants and these changes leave imprints in their key anatomical and genetic characteristics. The first section of this chapter presents the roles of morpho-anatomical traits in shaping plant diversity patterns and forest landscapes, focusing on the trade-offs in plant morpho-anatomy, physiological functions, and structural diversity were discussed. The functional implications of morpho-anatomical traits will help in understanding the mechanisms of plants' resistance strategies that underpin plant resilience amid frequent anthropogenic climate change and human-induced activities. These implications are demonstrated in the different type of plants according to their water relations: mesophytes, xerophytes, halophytes, hydrophytes, and heliophytes. The morpho-anatomical trait–functioning relationships were also discussed in terms of the aboveground and belowground traits and plant and ecosystem functions. Variations of morpho-anatomical traits at multi-scales (forest landscape structure) along different environmental gradients, which will help in predicting the likely responses of plant species to climate change, were also presented. The second section accounted the coevolution of plants and human and highlighted how the different anthropogenic activities, centering on domestication and introductions resulting to biological invasion, caused genetic and molecular changes in plants. In particular, the genetic effects of human-driven population bottlenecks and selection pressures brought about by domestication processes and streamlined agricultural and silvicultural practices and interventions alongside climate change were discussed. Genetic responses were centered on two significant climate change-induced responses in plant populations: changes in flowering and fruiting patterns and changes in the patterns of the population genetic diversity and structure. Lastly, various molecular and potential biotechnological interventions for plants to adapt to climate change, revive and make ecosystems more climate-resilient, sustain food, and climate change mitigation for the attainment of the greater good of human were synthesized.KeywordsAnthropogenic climate changeMorpho-anatomical traitsMorpho-anatomical trait–functioning relationshipsPlant genetic responsesPopulation bottlenecks
Plant phenology in terrestrial ecosystems, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, is expected to change owing to the projected increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes in the context of global warming. Although such changes under mean climate change have been extensively reported in the literature, little is known about the impacts of climate extremes. In this study, climatic changes and their effects on plant phenology were characterized using long-term climatic and phenological data from the start and end of the growing season (SOS and EOS, respectively) from 2005 to 2020 for Stipa baicalensis, a dominant species in a temperate meadow steppe. The results showed that the temperature, including the mean and minimum temperatures, and extreme warm indices significantly increased; however, annual precipitation, and the frequency of extreme cold and precipitation events decreased. The SOS of S. baicalensis was initially earlier and later, whereas the EOS trended to be delayed. However, the growing season (LOS) was slightly prolonged. Compared with the indices under mean temperature, the pre-season (before SOS or EOS) minimum temperature dominantly affected SOS and EOS, whereas the mean and extreme precipitation slightly affected them. Furthermore, the findings showed that plant phenology responded to extreme temperatures quicker and stronger than mean temperatures. This study provides insight into how key extreme climatic factors could affect plant phenophases and improve and refine the phenological model. This could also be useful in enhancing grassland ecosystem management and sustainable development.
Urban forests and trees are affected by potential biotic and abiotic climate change impacts. To enhance urban forest adaptability and resilience to climate change impacts, tree species with high local climate adaptability and robust stress tolerance should be identified and selected. Climate events in the Shanghai area, such as late frost, chilling, heat waves, drought, typhoons, waterlogging, soil salinization, pests, and disease, directly or indirectly impact urban forests and trees. For urban tree species selection in the context of climate change, an assessment framework was proposed and applied to assess the climate change adaptability of 65 urban tree species in Shanghai using a method combined with quantitative data and qualitative descriptions. In this study, the climate types of tree species were divided into four groups according to annual mean temperature (AMT) and annual precipitation (AP): temperate, cool subtropical, warm subtropical, and moist subtropical species. The results showed that hardness, heat tolerance, chilling requirement, and drought tolerance were categorized as climate-related tolerances, while other tolerances were categorized as non-climate-related tolerances. The tree species’ optimal AMT and AP were significantly correlated with climate-related tolerances, but they did not respond to the non-climate-related tolerances. The warm subtropical species had higher stress tolerances than other climate types in the Shanghai area; therefore, the warm subtropical species with high tolerances were the most suitable alternatives for urban tree species selection with regards to Shanghai’s climate change impacts. This study also found that the AMT optimum is a better index to reflect tree species’ climate-related tolerances rather than the AP optimum. Finally, the adaptability assessment framework of climate change impact will offer guidance for future-oriented urban forest management and urban tree species selection in Shanghai.
Forests are an integral part of the terrestrial ecosystem, maintaining the biodiversity, carbon flux, and ecosystem services and even supporting livelihoods. Rampant exploitation of forest resources has resulted in deforestation and the loss of associated benefits. It is estimated that deforestation accounts for 11% of global carbon emissions. Their role in carbon sequestration has helped international bodies to create programmes such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). The phenomena of climate change adversely affect the functioning of forest species: it changes the timing of their flowering and fruiting habits, and brings about changes in the ecophysiology of the species. However, such changes depend on the species and the climatic conditions to a large extent. Phenology, the temporal order of the annual cycle of plant functions, is quite sensitive to the changes in climate. In this chapter we have explored the relationships between climate change and its impact on tree phenology, and mitigation and adaptation strategies. Some species may tend to exhibit a certain amount of resilience against climate change.
Phenological events play a key role modulating ecosystem services; however, the complex and interlinked nature of ecosystems indicates that interactions among different taxa during phenological events can have consequences for the entire ecosystem. Currently, there is a lack of a unified criteria on the methodologies studying phenology and biotic interactions.
We performed an extensive integrative review of works evaluating phenology and biotic interactions. We identified four broad categories of studies that have explored biotic interactions within phenology research: (a) spatial and temporal asynchronies, (b) biotic factors as covariates, (c) simulation studies and (d) interaction indices.
We found that spring phenology has received much more attention than any other season, while mutualistic and obligated interactions, as well as trophic interactions and networks have been explored more routinely than facilitation or competition. Authors tend to interpret coexistence among species as biotic interactions without any direct measurement, particularly in spatial and temporal asynchrony studies, but this also occurs to a certain extent in all categories. We also found a lack of formal examination in most studies exploring phenological mismatches in response to climate change.
We propose a conceptual framework for the inclusion of phenology in the study of biotic interactions that apportions research into the conceptualisation and modelling of biotic interactions. Conceptualisation explores phenological data, types of interactions and the spatiotemporal dimensions, which all determine the representation for biotic interactions within the modelling framework, and the type of models that are applicable.
Finally, we identify emerging opportunities to investigate biotic interactions in phenology research, including spatially and temporally explicit species distribution models as proxies for phenological events and the combination of novel technologies (e.g. acoustic recorders, telemetry data) to quantify interactions.
Human-induced environmental changes caused by habitat loss and its degradation, overexploitation of resources and climate change, have already pushed considerable number of plant and animal species to extinction, and a large number of them are at the verge of extinction. These catastrophic environmental changes have precipitated the ‘sixth mass extinction crisis’ in which a large proportion of the species would be lost in geologically a short time. As biological diversity and ecosystem functioning form the basis of human existence, human-induced environmental changes may eventually lead to serious repercussions on the biosphere and threaten the survival of the human race itself. Conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning has, therefore, become a major challenge the humanity has to face in the coming decades. Flowering plants form the major component of plant diversity. Sustainability of the prevailing diversity depends on the ability of species/populations to reproduce and recruit new individuals to sustain populations. Recruitment is the final step in a long series of sequential events starting with the flower. Among these sequential events, pollination, a prerequisite for fruit and seed set, and seed dispersal, needed for effective recruitment of new individuals, are two of the most critical events, and both involve largely plant–animal mutualism. Human-induced environmental changes have imposed serious constraints on these mutualisms, thus seriously hampering recruitment. ‘Global pollinator crisis’ has been recognized as a major hazard not only for the sustainability of plant diversity but also for crop productivity and thus the food and nutritional security of human beings. Climate change, apart from inducing migration of species to higher altitudes and latitudes, brings about phenological changes particularly in the time of flowering and fruiting resulting in mismatches between the plant and animal partners involved in mutualistic interactions. There is an urgent need for concerted global action to reduce and reverse this trend of environmental degradation and thus conserve our biological diversity and ecosystem services to protect ourselves and our Planet.
Many plant phenological events are sensitive to temperature, leading to changes in the seasonal cycle of ecosystem function as the climate warms. To evaluate the current and future implications of temperature changes for plant phenology, researchers commonly use a metric of temperature sensitivity, which quantifies the change in phenology per degree change in temperature.
Here, we examine the temperature sensitivity of phenology, and highlight conditions under which the widely used days‐per‐degree sensitivity approach is subject to methodological issues that can generate misleading results. We identify several factors, in particular the length of the period over which temperature is integrated, and changes in the statistical characteristics of the integrated temperature, that can affect the estimated apparent sensitivity to temperature.
We show how the resulting artifacts can lead to spurious differences in apparent temperature sensitivity and artificial spatial gradients. Such issues are rarely considered in analyses of the temperature sensitivity of phenology.
Given the issues identified, we advocate for process‐oriented modelling approaches, informed by observations and with fully characterised uncertainties, as a more robust alternative to the simple days‐per‐degree temperature sensitivity metric. We also suggest approaches to minimise and assess spurious influences in the days‐per‐degree metric.
Variations in the amplitude and timing of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 have shown an association with surface air temperature consistent with the hypothesis that warmer temperatures have promoted increases in plant growth during summer1 and/or plant respiration during winter2 in the northern high latitudes. Here we present evidence from satellite data that the photosynthetic activity of terrestrial vegetation increased from 1981 to 1991 in a manner that is suggestive of an increase in plant growth associated with a lengthening of the active growing season. The regions exhibiting the greatest increase lie between 45°N and 70°N, where marked warming has occurred in the spring time3 due to an early disappearance of snow4. The satellite data are concordant with an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric carbon dioxide exceeding 20% since the early 1970s, and an advance of up to seven days in the timing of the drawdown of CO2 in spring and early summer1. Thus, both the satellite data and the CO2 record indicate that the global carbon cycle has responded to interannual fluctuations in surface air temperature which, although small at the global scale, are regionally highly significant.
Although it is likely that winter flowering of various plant species has been influenced by recent climate change, previous phenological analyses have not focused on flowering phenology in winter. In Japan, the Japanese apricot Prunus mume historically flowers during the cold months of winter from January to March. I used a continuous dataset of the flowering date at 32 sites in various regions of Japan from 1953 to 2005. Over the course of this period, the flowering date of apricots has advanced, with a notable shift in regimes between 1953-1989 and 1990-2005. The correlation results show that mean winter air temperature significantly affected the flowering date of the apricots at all of the sites, but snowfall was not correlated with the flowering date at 30 out of 32 sites. The difference between the mean flowering dates of 1953-1989 and 1990-2005 was correlated with the correlation coefficient between the flowering date and air temperature. Winter flowering of Japanese apricot has been influenced by recent climate change, especially by drastic climate-related shifts in the timing of key processes.
1 The Marsham phenological data have been 'rediscovered' several times. This unique data set, spanning two centuries, consists of first dates of observation, or 'indications of spring', for 27 phenological events which relate to over 20 species of plants and animals. 2 This paper extends the 1926 appraisal of the data from 1736 to 1925 by adding the 22 years up to 1947, when publication of the record ceased. 3 The Marsham data are examined in relation to Manley's central England monthly temperature data and Craddock's annual rainfall data and are further examined for unexplained trends over time. 4 Most of the phenological variables were significantly related to climatic variables or changed through time. 5 An appraisal of the historical response of flora and fauna to climate was made and allowed us to predict changes in species performance due to climate change in the future. If commonly used climate scenarios are accurate we predict that most or all of the indications of spring noted in the Marsham record will occur earlier in the calendar year.
Argues that there are close ecological and evolutionary relationships between flowers and pollination, fruits and seed dispersal, and seed and seedling establishment. Empirical evidence is drawn from Calophyllum (Guttiferae), Agave (Agavaceae), Astragalagus (Leguminosae), Lesquerella (Cruciferae), Phacelia (Hydrophyllaceae) and Asclepias (Asclepiadaceae).-P.J.Jarvis
Como resultado de los cambios climáticos durante los últimos 100 años, muchas aves están llegando a puntos en sus rutas migratorias durante la primavera más temprano de lo que llegaban en el pasado. Cada vez con mayor frecuencia, los investigadores están utilizando una variedad de fuentes de información, como diarios de naturalistas y registros de clubes de observadores de aves, para documentar los tiempos de migración. Sin embargo, no está claro si los investigadores pueden usar exitosamente diferentes fuentes de datos para comparar cambios en los tiempos de migración. Examinamos 25 años de cambios en los tiempos de migración para 30 especies de aves en el Cementerio Mt. Auburn en Cambridge, Massachusetts, según fue documentado por los miembros de los clubes de observadores y publicado en una revista regional de aves. Encontramos que, en general, las aves llegaron más temprano en las primaveras más cálidas en el este de Massachusetts. Comparamos nuestros hallazgos con los de estudios previos en Massachusetts, los cuales incluyeron datos de una estación estandarizada de anillado de aves y observaciones de un diario de un naturalista y registros de un club de observadores. Considerando especie por especie, los cambios en los tiempos de migración no estuvieron correlacionados entre los estudios. Creemos que los cambios locales en los tamaños poblacionales y el esfuerzo de muestreo en alguno de los sitios pueden haber contribuido a la falta de correlación. Para las comparaciones de cambios en los tiempos de migración entre especies y localidades, los datos estandarizados de anillado de aves son mejores que los datos colectados por voluntarios naturalistas. Sin embargo, las fuentes de datos de los naturalistas son útiles y muestran la tendencia ampliamente observada hacia migraciones más tempranas en las primaveras cálidas.
A shift in a life cycle event of one species relative to other species in an ecosystem should be considered more relevant than an absolute shift in phenological dates. However, there is very little evidence regarding the differential effects of climate change on the phenologies of different trophic levels and their potential effects on ecosystem functioning. The Japan Meteorological Agency has monitored the flowering of 4 Prunus tree species and the appearance date of the butterfly Pieris rapae (a proxy for potential pollinators) in spring at Nagano, Japan, since 1953. Flowering tended to occur earlier over the last 3 decades, whereas the appearance of the butterfly was delayed. The effects of climate and the timing of the sensitive period differ between both trophic levels. The plants were strongly affected by temperature (r = –0.87) 30 to 40 d prior to flowering, whereas the butterfly was less affected by temperature (r = –0.50), and the effects mainly occurred during the 15 d prior to its appearance. The temperature during the plants’ sensitive period has increased sharply since 1953, whereas the temperature during the butterfly’s sensitive period has not changed significantly. The phenologies of the plants and butterfly are changing in opposite directions because they use different climatic cues with different temporal trends. This is the first documentation of differential effects of climate change between plant and insect phenology in Japan.
Mean global temperatures have risen this century, and further warming is predicted to continue for the next 50-100 years. Some migratory species can respond rapidly to yearly climate variation by altering the timing or destination of migration, but most wildlife is sedentary and so is incapable of such a rapid response. For these species, responses to the warming trend should be slower, reflected in poleward shifts of the range. Such changes in distribution would occur at the level of the population, stemming not from changes in the pattern of indivduals' movements, but from changes in the ratios of extinctions to colonizations at the northern and southern boundaries of the range. A northward range shift therefore occurs when there is net extinction at teh southern boundary or net colonization at the northern boundary. However, previous evidence has been limited to a single species or to only a portion of the species' range. Here we provide the first large-scale evidence of poleward shifts in entire species' ranges. In a sample of 35 non-migratory European butterflies, 63% have ranges that have shifted to the north by 35-240 km during this century, and only 3% have shifted to the south.
Past studies of bird migration times have shown great variation in migratory responses to climate change. We used 33 years of bird capture data (1970–2002) from Manomet, Massachusetts to examine variation in spring migration times for 32 species of North American passerines. We found that changes in first arrival dates – the unit of observation used in most studies of bird migration times – often differ dramatically from changes in the mean arrival date of the migration cohort as a whole. In our study, the earliest recorded springtime arrival date for each species occurred 0.20 days later each decade. In contrast, the mean arrival dates for birds of each species occurred 0.78 days earlier each decade. The difference in the two trends was largely explained by declining migration cohort sizes, a factor not examined in many previous studies. We found that changes in migration cohort or population sizes may account for a substantial amount of the variation in previously documented changes in migration times. After controlling for changes in migration cohort size, we found that climate variables, migration distance, and date of migration explained portions of the variation in migratory changes over time. In particular, short-distance migrants appeared to respond to changes in temperature, while mid-distance migrants responded particularly strongly to changes in the Southern Oscillation Index. The migration times of long-distance migrants tended not to change over time. Our findings suggest that previously reported changes in migration times may need to be reinterpreted to incorporate changes in migration cohort sizes.
Evidence for global warming is inferred from spring advances in first-flowering in plants. The trend of average first-flowering times per year for the study group shows a significant advance of 2.4 days over a 30-year period. When 11 species that exhibit later first-flowering times are excluded from the data set, the remaining 89 show a significant advance of 4.5 days. Significant trends for earlier-flowering species range from -3.2 to -46 days, while those for later-flowering species range from +3.1 to +10.4 days. Advances of first-flowering in these 89 species are directly correlated with local increase in minimum temperature (T
min).
Climate change is affecting plant phenology worldwide. Phenological responses vary among species, but it is not clear how responses differ among closely related species. We examined a 25-yr record (1981-2005) of flowering times for 97 trees, representing 17 species and hybrids of cherry (Cerasus sp. or Prunus sp.) grown at Mt. Takao, in Tokyo, Japan. The cherry trees flowered earlier over time, by an average of 5.5 d over the 25-yr study. Earlier flowering was explained largely by a 1.8°C increase in February-March mean monthly temperatures. Most species and hybrids flowered 3-5 d earlier for each 1°C increase in temperature, but early-flowering taxa flowered as much as 9 d earlier for each 1°C increase in temperature. Flowering durations and differences in flowering times among species were greater in warm years than in cold years. Species and individual trees also flowered longer in warm years. These results show that the flowering times of closely related species may change similarly in response to climate change, but that early-flowering species may diverge from the overall trend in a predictable way. Such changes in flowering may affect gene flow and pollination as the length of the flowering season increases.
Changes in phenology (seasonal plant and animal activity driven by environmental factors) from year to year may be a sensitive and easily observable indicator of changes in the biosphere. We have analysed data from more than 30 years of observation in Europe, and found that spring events, such as leaf unfolding, have advanced by 6 days, whereas autumn events, such as leaf colouring, have been delayed by 4.8 days. This means that the average annual growing season has lengthened by 10.8 days since the early 1960s. These shifts can be attributed to changes in air temperature.
Climate change has led to major changes in the phenology (the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering) of some species but not others. The extent to which flowering-time response to temperature is shared among closely related species might have important consequences for community-wide patterns of species loss under rapid climate change. Henry David Thoreau initiated a dataset of the Concord, Massachusetts, flora that spans ≈150 years and provides information on changes in species abundance and flowering time. When these data are analyzed in a phylogenetic context, they indicate that change in abundance is strongly correlated with flowering-time response. Species that do not respond to temperature have decreased greatly in abundance, and include among others anemones and buttercups [Ranunculaceae pro parte (p.p.)], asters and campanulas (Asterales), bluets (Rubiaceae p.p.), bladderworts (Lentibulariaceae), dogwoods (Cornaceae), lilies (Liliales), mints (Lamiaceae p.p.), orchids (Orchidaceae), roses (Rosaceae p.p.), saxifrages (Saxifragales), and violets (Malpighiales). Because flowering-time response traits are shared among closely related species, our findings suggest that climate change has affected and will likely continue to shape the phylogenetically biased pattern of species loss in Thoreau's woods.
• conservation
• extinction
• phenology
• phylogenetic conservatism
• phylogeny
Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species.
Spring temperatures in temperate regions have increased over the past 20 years, and many organisms have responded to this increase by advancing the date of their growth and reproduction. Here we show that adaptation to climate change in a long-distance migrant is constrained by the timing of its migratory journey. For long-distance migrants climate change may advance the phenology of their breeding areas, but the timing of some species' spring migration relies on endogenous rhythms that are not affected by climate change. Thus, the spring migration of these species will not advance even though they need to arrive earlier on their breeding grounds to breed at the appropriate time. We show that the migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca has advanced its laying date over the past 20 years. This temporal shift has been insufficient, however, as indicated by increased selection for earlier breeding over the same period. The shift is hampered by its spring arrival date, which has not advanced. Some of the numerous long-distance migrants will suffer from climate change, because either their migration strategy is unaffected by climate change, or the climate in breeding and wintering areas are changing at different speeds, preventing adequate adaptation.
Climatologists tell us that Earth's climate is changing (1): It currently seems clear that a warmer climate is developing in the northern hemisphere, and that the weather will become more variable (2, 3). As part of this global change, seasonal patterns are being altered to make spring conditions occur earlier in the year in the north (4), without necessarily corresponding changes in more southern latitudes (5).
Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 degrees C and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate. Although species have responded to climatic changes throughout their evolutionary history, a primary concern for wild species and their ecosystems is this rapid rate of change. We gathered information on species and global warming from 143 studies for our meta-analyses. These analyses reveal a consistent temperature-related shift, or 'fingerprint', in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees. Indeed, more than 80% of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant populations. The synergism of rapid temperature rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions.
Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Ecological processes are changing in response to climatic warming. Birds, in particular, have been documented to arrive and breed earlier in spring and this has been attributed to elevated spring temperatures. It is not clear, however, how long-distance migratory birds that overwinter thousands of kilometers to the south in the tropics cue into changes in temperature or plant phenology on northern breeding areas. We explored the relationships between the timing and rate of spring migration of long-distance migratory birds, and variables such as temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and plant phenology, using mist net capture data from three ringing stations in North America over a 40-year period. Mean April/May temperatures in eastern North America varied over a 5 degrees C range, but with no significant trend during this period. Similarly, we found few significant trends toward earlier median capture dates of birds. Median capture dates were not related to the NAO, but were inversely correlated to spring temperatures for almost all species. For every 1 degrees C increase in spring temperature, median capture dates of migratory birds averaged, across species, one day earlier. Lilac (Syringa vulgaris) budburst, however, averaged 3 days earlier for every 1 degrees C increase in spring temperature, suggesting that the impact of temperature on plant phenology is three times greater than on bird phenology. To address whether migratory birds adjust their rate of northward migration to changes in temperature, we compared median capture dates for 15 species between a ringing station on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana in the southern USA with two stations approximately 2,500 km to the north. The interval between median capture dates in Louisiana and at the other two ringing stations was inversely correlated with temperature, with an average interval of 22 days, that decreased by 0.8 days per 1 degrees C increase in temperature. Our results suggest that, although the onset of migration may be determined endogenously, the timing of migration is flexible and can be adjusted in response to variation in weather and/or phenology along migration routes.
Strong correlations were found between blooming dates and meteorological factors. On the basis of on these correlations, predictive maps of blooming dates in the Japanese Islands were proposed for each case of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C of monthly mean temperature warming. The correlation was tested for the blooming dates of Prunus yedoensis, Prunus Munie, Camellia japonica, Taraxacum sp., Rhododendron Kaempferi, Wistaria floribunda, Lespedeza bicolor, Hydrangea macrophylla,Lagerstroemia indica, Miscanthus sinensis, etc., using the data on monthly mean temperatures from 102 meteorological stations in Japan for the period 1953–1990. Simple and multiple regression analyses were used for the correlation.
Among meteorological factors, the strongest correlation was shown for monthly mean temperatures. Notably, the strongest was obtained for the case of Prunus yedoensis. The mean temperature of the previous December also showed the best correlation for species such as Prunus Mume and Camellia japonica. Strong correlations between the leaf color-changing dates of Ginkgo biloba and Acer palmatum and the monthly mean temperature were found in one month of autumn. In these species, there was a delay of 2–7 days with a 1 degree increase in mean temperature.
The 30-year 1 km2 temperature-climate mesh-file developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency was used for the phenological estimation and predictive maps of phenological dates. Each observatory station was classified according to its annual mean temperature. Phenological dates for each mesh were estimated through monthly mean temperatures and regression equations of corresponding stations. Then, distribution maps of predictive phenological dates distinguished by 5-day divisions were made.
The change of the monthly mean temperature for March since the 11th century is estimated from the records of cherry blossom in old documents. The dates given as cherry blossom festivals in old diaries and chronicles are assumed as full flowering dates of Prunus jamasakura, one of the native cherry tree species of Japan. The temperatures are estimated by means of DTS method, which has been used to estimate flowering date from temperature data. It is shown that computations for the recent 40 years proved that the decadal average values of the March temperature may be obtained by the method for P. jamasakura with the accuracy of 0.1°C of the root mean square error.
It is shown that the entire study period can be roughly divided into three subsections. In the first period (the 11-13th centuries), the March appeared to be generally very warm compared with other periods, however, accuracy of the estimated values are rather poor because decadal averages are computed from relatively small number of years due to missing of records.
For the second period (the 14-16th centuries), there was a period of warming of 2°C from 1470's to 1610's, otherwise the decadal averages suggest large fluctuations, at least partly attributed to poor quality of full flowering data of P. jamasakura.
For the third period (the 17-20th centuries), temperatures generally tend to be estimated in low values, especially estimations in 1690-1710's and 1810-30's continued to the present is noticeable. The rise amounts to 3.4°C seems due both to urban warming and larger scale warming over the central Japan roughly the same degree.
It has been known that cherry trees in the central area of a large city come into blossom earlier than those in the suburbs. One of the main causes of this advancement of blooming dates is urban warming. The purpose of this paper is to show the relationship between the amount of urban warming (ΔTu), and the amount of advancement of blooming dates (ΔBDu). Data used in this study are official records of blooming dates of Prunus yedoensis (the most popular species of cherry trees in Japan) at stations of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and daily mean temperatures at these stations.
In oder to obtain ΔBDu which is assumed to be entirely temperature dependent, it is necessary to estimate blooming dates from temperature data. This could be made by the method reported in our previous paper (Omoto and Aono, 1989). It enables us to relate deviation of blooming dates of a particular year from mean blooming dates (ΔBD) with deviation of temperature from the normal (ΔTa). The linear relationship between ΔBD and ΔTa found at each site suggests that we can replace these parameters by ΔBDu and ΔTu respectively. The evaluation of ΔTu is made by the method proposed by Omoto and Hamotani (1979). It is pointed out that the proportional constants β at various stations differ systematically such that the earlier the mean blooming date, the smaller the value of β.
Nevertheless there are several sources of error in the computations of ΔBDu and ΔTu, comparisons between variations of actual and estimated blooming dates in several large cities in Japan indicate that the present method gives reasonable estimation.
Changes in spring temperatures in Kyoto since the 14th century are estimated using flowering phenological data of cherry trees (Prunus jamasakura, a native species) from old records. It is shown that flowering dates of cherry trees in Kyoto are closely related to the monthly mean temperature of March. This result is obtained using the so called DTS method, which has been used to estimate the first flowering date of P. yedoensis (a horticultural species). However, in this case it is applied to estimate the full flowering date of P. jamasakura. It is shown that accuracy for both is almost the same. In this study, using this method with a reversed procedure, namely monthly temperatures for arch are estimated from full flowering dates. It is shown that for decadal means, calculated averaged March temperatures fell within 0.5°C from the actual value in the 20th century.The result shows that there were relatively cold periods around the mid-14th, early 16th and late 17th through the early 19th centuries. There were warm springs during the early 17th century. A steady warming trend starting the early 19th century continuing to the present i s noteworthy. It is attributable to both urban warming and large scale warming.
Strong correlations were found between blooming dates and meteorological factors. Based on these correlations, predictive maps of blooming dates in the Japanese Islands were proposed for each case of 1, 2 and 3°C of warming. The correlation was tested for the blooming dates of Prunus yedoensis, Prunus mume, Camellia japonica, Taraxacum, Rhododendron kaempferi, Wistaria floribunda, Lespedeza bicolor, Hydrangea macrophylla, Lagerstroemia indica, Miscanthus sinensis, etc., using the data of monthly mean temperatures, warming indices and cold indices from 102 meteorological stations in Japan between 1953-1990. Simple and multiple regression analyses were used for the correlation.
Among meteorological factors, the strongest correlation was shown for monthly mean temperatures. Notably, the strongest was obtained for the case of Prunus yedoensis. The cold index and mean temperature of the previous December also showed the best correlation for species such as Prunus mume and Camellia japonica. Strong correlations between the leaf color-changing dates of Ginkgo biloba and Acer palmatum and the monthly mean temperature were found in one month of autumn. In these species, there was a delay of 2-7 days with a 1 degree increase in mean temperature.
The 30-year 1km² temperature-climate mesh-file developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency was used for the phenological estimation and predictive maps of blooming dates. Each observatory station was classified according to its annual mean temperature. Blooming for each mesh was estimated through monthly mean temperatures and regression equations of corresponding stations. Then, distribution maps of predictive blooming dates distinguished by 5-day divisions were made.
We analyzed the relationships between a long-term trend of rising air temperature and the lives of three species of creatures: red-cheeked starlings, paleotropical migratory birds that breed in Japan, small white butterflies and cherry trees (Somei-Yoshino cherry). We studied the egg-laying dates of the star- lings in Niigata City located in the central part of Honshu, the largest of the four main islands of Japan. We obtained the first appearance dates of imagoes of small whites and the blooming dates of Somei-Yoshino cherry trees in Niigata from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Red-cheeked starlings had a significant tendency to start their egg-laying earlier each year; over the course of 28 years the lay- ing date became 15.3 days earlier. Their progressively earlier egg-laying dates were significantly corre- lated with the rise in early spring temperatures in Niigata City, their breeding ground, and with the tem- perature of Naha City in Okinawa Prefecture, which is a migration stopover area in southern Japan. Since temperatures of both areas rose significantly during the period, it is likely that the temperature rise was the cause of the advanced egg-laying dates. The cherries' blooming date also tended to become ear- lier year-by-year, showing a strong negative correlation with the temperature of early spring. The first appearance date of small whites showed no tendency to become earlier year-by-year, but showed a sig- nificant negative correlation with the temperature of early spring. We think that the reason for the cherry trees' blooming date showing a stronger correlation with the temperature of early spring than the laying date of the starlings is because, unlike migratory birds, cherry trees grow in the same region for the en- tire year. Thus they are greatly influenced by the temperature of our investigation area (Niigata City). Also, unlike small whites whose chrysalises pass the winter close to the surface of the earth covered with snow, cherry buds are exposed to the air and so might have been more influenced by the long-term warming trend in early spring air temperatures.
Since the theoretical paper of Levin and Anderson1, it has been widely recognised that animal pollinators represent resources for which plants can compete. Competition for pollination might take several forms and act as a powerful selective force in establishing or maintaining sequential flowering among sympatric species2. Sequential flowering in Arctic3, temperate4–9 and neotropical10–13 plant assemblages has been interpreted as an evolutionary result of competition for pollination. This interpretation may prove correct in many cases, although strong evidence for competition is available for few systems9,14. Heinrich and Raven15 (see also Baker16 and Baker et al.
17) pointed out that sympatric plant species may act as mutualistic partners at the same time that their sequential flowering is maintained by competition. We develop this hypothesis here explicitly and present evidence that effective mutualism occurs between two species which also compete for pollination.
Regional climate models suggest that climate change resulting from a doubling of the pre-industrial levels of atmospheric CO2 may increase annual air temperatures by 3-4oC. Changes in precipitation are highly uncertain, but the most probable scenario shows higher levels over all but the northernm interior portions of the region, with increases primarily occurring in summer and occurring as more intense or clustered storms. Only in Florida and the Gulf Coast ares of the USA and Mexico are precipitation increases likely to exceed evapotranspiration increases, producing an incarease in runoff. The ecological effects of climate change on freshwaters of the region include: a general increase in rates of primary production organic matter decomposition and nutrient cycling; reduction in habitat for cool water species, particularly fish and macroinvertebrates; reduction in water quality and in suitable habitat in summer; reduction in organic matter storiage and loss of organisms during more intense flushing events in some streams and wetlands; shorter periods of inundation of iparian wetlands and greater drying of wetland soils; expansion of subtropical species northwards; expansion of wetlands in Florida and coastal Mexico, but increase in eutrophication of Florida Lakes; and changes in the flushing rate of estuaries that would alter their salinity regimes, stratification and water quality as well as influence productivity in the Gulf of Mexico.
