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Social Networks and Mass Media as Mobilizers and Demobilizers: A Study of Turnout at a German Local Election

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Abstract

This paper explores the impact of informal communication in voters’ social networks and the formal communication of the mass media on individuals’ propensity to take part in elections. Analyzing survey data from a recent local election in Germany it shows how both forms of communication may not only mobilize, but also demobilize voters. On the whole, personal communication appears more influential than mass communication. The media’s effects are generally weaker than those of social networks. Moreover, they are mediated by attitudes, while social networks have strong direct effects. These originate mainly from information conveyed through personal contact with voters and abstainers in one’s immediate social environment. Social voting norms are only influential, if they originate from persons’ families and are in favor of electoral participation.

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... Also coined 'discursive actions', this has in recent years been regarded as one sub-aspect defining political consumerism (Stolle & Micheletti 2013;). On the other hand, research studying explanations for political participation or absenteeism tells relatively clearly that engagement with information through conversation and interaction with others are crucial seeds of political action (Nickerson 2008;Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt 2010;Partheymüller & Schmitt-Beck 2012;Schlozman et al. 2012) -while a lack thereof sows abstention. ...
... As these authors suggest, not only structural characteristics of people's social environments matter for their tendency to get involved in politics or abstaining from it. Also the ways in which people interact within these structures, and whether or not they observe politically related cues among their peers matter (e.g., Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt 2010;Partheymüller & Schmitt-Beck 2012). Economics, sociology, and psychology research point to the same, illustrating the relevance of verbal and non-verbal social interaction for the development and adoption of consumer behaviours. ...
... Likewise, studies of electoral participation demonstrate the remarkable influence that surrounding people have on a person to vote -or to abstain from voting. Talking about politics or living together with others who vote increases a person's probability to turn out at elections dramatically (McClurg 2003;Nickerson 2008;Lim 2010;Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt 2010;Ikeda & Boase 2011;Fieldhouse & Cutts 2012;Partheymüller & Schmitt-Beck 2012). Similar effects are found for communication online, where merely receiving information that peers have voted seems to increase someone's odds to turn out (Bond et al. 2012). ...
Article
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The ecological impacts of consumption are well acknowledged, and most people worldwide are likely to have encountered proofs for or information about it. Likewise, online and offline media seem to be full of information on the issue. Even so, large numbers of people are ‘non‐political’ consumers, inconsiderate of the ethical and ecological implications of what they buy and consume. Using representative survey data from Sweden collected in 2019, this paper shows that a major reason for non‐political consumerism can be seen in the lack of interpersonal ‘recruitment’ efforts; that is, deliberate attempts by some to influence another's consumption. Moreover, the analyses show that for a person having faced such attempts by others to influence their consumption is distinct from them discussing political consumption issues. With this, the paper also provides one of the first large‐N studies confirming recent theoretical propositions of an extended definition of political consumerism: discussion, that is, discursive action, is a sub‐form of political consumerism next to boycotting, buycotting, and lifestyle change. Interpersonal influence, in turn, is a key predictor of political consumerism. Altogether, the results suggest that spreading information may feed discursive actions. Yet, to get more people change their consumption choices and engage in political consumerism, what is needed is that people influence each other to do so.
... As shown there, conscious imitation and unconscious contagion of attitudes, opinions, and behaviors happen across an extensive set of everyday decisions [26][27][28][29]. Similar dynamics are observed and highlighted more and more in the study of electoral behavior and public opinion [27,[30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. Rather than judging choices and deliberately deciding what to do, people regularly seem to engage in more or less mindless, automated imitation of what the people next to them are doing. ...
... Comparable dynamics are observed and discussed in public opinion and political behavior research [33,[72][73][74][75], as well as in food contexts [76][77][78][79]. As these studies highlight, interpersonal communication, interaction, or mere co-existence can make people behave in certain ways [27,30,[32][33][34][35][36][37][38]. People imitate each other's choices; likewise, behavior change is regarded as depending on social dynamics favorable to it [64]. ...
... This can apply to opinions, beliefs, and emotions, as well as to single actions and more general behavioral patterns. The 'transmission' processes are said to work through interpersonal communication, interaction, or mere co-existence [27,30,[32][33][34][35][36][37][38]. Co-existence, for instance, increases people's odds to turnout if they live together with others who turnout [27,30,36,37,75,[122][123][124][125], to eat the same kinds and amounts of food [78,79,97,120], and even to commit suicide [126]. ...
Article
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Nudging' symbolizes the widespread idea that if people are only provided with the 'right' options and contextual arrangements, they will start consuming sustainably. Opposite to this individual-centered, top-down approach stand observations highlighting the 'contagiousness' of thoughts, emotions, and behaviors of reference groups or persons present in a decision-context. Tying in these two lines, this paper argues that nudging may sound promising and easily applicable, yet the social dynamics occurring around it can easily distort or nullify its effects. This argument stems from empirical evidence gained in an exploratory observation study conducted in a Swedish cafeteria (N = 1073), which included a 'nudging' treatment. In the study, people in groups almost unanimously all chose the same options. After rearranging the choice architecture to make a potentially sustainable choice easier, people stuck to this mimicking behavior-while turning to choose more the non-intended option than before. A critical reflection of extant literature leads to the conclusion that the tendency to mimic each other (unconsciously) is so strong that attempts to nudge people towards certain choices appear overwhelmed. Actions become 'contagious'; so, if only some people stick to their (consumption) habits, it may be hard to induce more sustainable behaviors through softly changing choice architectures.
... However, people's willingness to vote may also be actively undermined by communication asking them to abstain, or downplaying the importance of the election. Scholars studying demobilization as an electoral behavior (Partheymüller & Schmitt-Beck, 2012;Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010) argue that under some conditions, we may find an active disincentive to voting, operating through communication (Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010). In this "social logic" of demobilization, abstention from voting is not only the consequence of insufficient enforcement of the voting norm -rather, in some segments of the electorate the dominant social norm may be one of nonvoting. ...
... However, people's willingness to vote may also be actively undermined by communication asking them to abstain, or downplaying the importance of the election. Scholars studying demobilization as an electoral behavior (Partheymüller & Schmitt-Beck, 2012;Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010) argue that under some conditions, we may find an active disincentive to voting, operating through communication (Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010). In this "social logic" of demobilization, abstention from voting is not only the consequence of insufficient enforcement of the voting norm -rather, in some segments of the electorate the dominant social norm may be one of nonvoting. ...
... In this case, active communication with other nonvoters may suppress voter turnout. Such messages may come both from the mass media and from interpersonal communication (Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010) -both of which today often take place through social media. ...
Article
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While scholarly attention has been devoted to social media’s potential mobilizing function, they may also contribute to demobilization discourses: social communication actively promoting nonvoting. This paper examines discourses around mobilization vs. demobilization in the context of the municipal elections in Jerusalem. As the sweeping majority of East Jerusalem Palestinians have continuously been boycotting Jerusalem’s municipal elections, this is a potent case through which to examine how demobilization functions in action, through social media conversations. Using a mixed-methods analysis of Twitter contents as structured by different languages, our findings show how mobilization and demobilization discourses can co-occur during the same election event. Users of different languages – reflecting different social and political identities – interpret the elections in contrasting ways, with tangible implications for (in)equality in political participation. The study thus contributes theoretically to several domains of political communication, including election studies, local politics, and language fragmentation in online political discourse.
... Die Höhe der Wahlbeteiligung hängt von mehreren Bedingungen ab, vor allem von institutionellen Rahmenbedingungen wie dem Wahlsystem, von individuellen Ressourcen der Wählerinnen und Wähler wie u. a. Bildung, Alter und sozioökonomischer Status, von motivationalen Voraussetzungen wie Parteimitgliedschaft und der Überzeugung, Wählen sei Bürgerpflicht, von situativen politischen Bedingungen wie etwa aktuellen Themen und Parteienkonstellationen, schließlich auch von Anregungen durch Wahlkampfaktivitäten der Parteien, durch mediale und interpersonale Kommunikation (Norris, 2000, S. 255-256;Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010). Der Wahlkampf soll nicht nur Orientierung bieten, die Entscheidungsfindung unterstützen und beeinflussen, sondern auch zur Stimmabgabe motivieren. ...
... Auf diesem Wege werden mediale Informationen und politischer Einfluss vermittelt (vgl. etwa Beck, Dalton, Greene, & Huckfeldt, 2002;Boomgaarden, 2014;Schmitt-Beck, 2000;Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010). Das gilt zunehmend auch für die interpersonale Kommunikation über das Internet, speziell über soziale Medien (Bond et al., 2012;Hinz, 2017). ...
Article
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Trägt die Nutzung politischer Information im Internet zur Mobilisierung der Wählerinnen und Wähler bei? Dieser Frage geht diese Studie nach und vergleicht dabei Online-Quellen und Offline-Quellen der Wahlberechtigten wie auch ihre Involvierung in Wahl und Wahlkampf und ihre Wahlabsicht. Die bisherige Forschung dazu liefert uneinheitliche Ergebnisse. Das liegt auch daran, dass sie zumeist auf Daten und Analyseverfahren beruht, die keine eindeutigen Aussagen zulassen. Im Unterschied dazu verwendet diese Studie ein neuartiges Analysemodell, das die Überprüfung von kausalen Beziehungen mit sehr viel mehr Evidenz ermöglicht als herkömmliche statistische Instrumente. Datenbasis ist eine dreiwellige Panelbefragung aus der Endphase des Bundestagswahlkampfs 2013. Theoretischer Ausgangspunkt ist Slaters Spiralmodell der Wechselwirkungen, das ein Konzept der Erie-County-Studie aus den 1940er Jahren weiterentwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass offensichtlich ein Kernbefund der frühen Wahlforschung auch in der neuen Medienwelt gilt: Zwischen Informationsnutzung und Mobilisierung gibt es Wechselwirkungen und positive Rückkopplungen mit kumulativen Effekten. Diese Spiralprozesse sind für das Internet allerdings weniger deutlich ausgeprägt als für Offline-Quellen wie politische Gespräche in der Familie und Nachrichten im öffentlich-rechtlichen Fernsehen. Der Beitrag diskutiert mögliche Erklärungen dafür wie auch für Unterschiede zwischen einzelnen Indikatoren der Mobilisierung.
... Spouses in particular appear to be extremely influential (Zuckerman et al . 2007;Schmitt-Beck and Mackenrodt 2010) . ...
... Conclusions reached in the few studies conducted in Germany are, by and large, consistent with these findings . In particular, agreeable exchanges of political views with close, intimate others, were found to boost electoral participation (Faas and Schmitt-Beck 2010;Schmitt-Beck and Mackenrodt 2010) . Frequent political conversations with close, intimate others who are deemed to be politically knowledgeable but do not intend to participate in elections were shown to demobilize voters (Partheymüller and Schmitt-Beck 2012) . ...
Book
Wahlkämpfe gelten als unverzichtbare Spielwiesen der Demokratie und als Hochzeiten politischer Kommunikation. In ihnen verdichten sich in periodisch wiederkehrenden Abständen die routinemäßig ablaufenden Interaktionen zwischen Parteien, Massenmedien und WählerInnen. Eine Veränderung erfahren diese Austauschprozesse durch das zeitlich befristete Hinzukommen von politischer Werbung und wahlkampfspezifischen Kommunikationsereignissen wie TV-Duellen. Die Beiträge dieses Bandes widmen sich den vergangenen Bundestags-, Europa- und Landtagswahlkämpfen in Deutschland in konsequent vergleichender Perspektive. Zum einen handelt es sich um Zeitvergleiche, die Veränderungen der Wahlkampfkommunikation überprüfen. Zum anderen werden die Wahlkampfkommunikation und deren Wirkungen, wie sie sich auf verschiedenen politischen Ebenen realisieren, in Bezug zueinander gesetzt. Dadurch wird die populäre Annahme, Haupt- und Nebenwahlkämpfe würden von Parteien, Massenmedien und WählerInnen unterschiedlich angegangen werden, auf den empirischen Prüfstand gestellt.
... Local canvassing may also be more effective because the local canvasser signals a shared social norm to the voter."(Sinclair et al., 2013, p. 53) A survey study for local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia found that social networks are even better at (de)mobilizing people than mass media(Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010). 10 There is also some solid scholarly agreement that fiscal incrementalism comes with higher voter turnout(Cancela & Geys, 2016).Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. ...
Article
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This study seeks to identify the factors that moderate pre-electoral increases in culture budgets of small, rural municipalities, using a panel sample of 876 Austrian municipalities for the period 2010 to 2019. Whenever politicians increase public funding to mobilize their constituencies in the run-up to elections, they create cycles in the financial figures. These so-called political business cycles (PBCs) are manifestations of the incumbents’ pre-electoral mobilization efforts and allow to concisely study fiscal approaches to voter activation. Citizens of small municipalities have concentrated preferences and a relatively pronounced propensity for cultural goods, so the mere existence of PBCs in municipal cultural spending is not contentious. However, what are the factors that influence the cumulative financial output of get-out-the-vote efforts? In deduction of established literature on electoral politics, I hypothesize that the extent of the PBCs in municipal cultural spending is moderated by electoral competition and fragmentation, while the mayor’s ideology should not be a significant moderating influence. The results of the dynamic panel model provide evidence in favour of these expectations, except for political fragmentation, which does not seem to be determinative of PBCs. The conclusion is that increasing the culture budget seems to be a much-used allocative method of voter mobilization in competitive elections, which puts the commonplace that small communities lack political competition into question. By researching the policymakers’ propensity to make top-down fiscal value propositions in the run-up to elections, the study characterizes the strategic timing in budgetary politics and assesses the contextual factors of materialist political considerations in today’s era of post-materialism.
... Political consumerism could, thus, relate to a multitude of other political or civic behaviors, considering that people pick up on cues from their peers and are influenced by them (Partheymüller and Schmitt-Beck 2012;Schmitt-Beck and Mackenrodt 2010). ...
Article
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Political consumerism has emerged as a popular form of participation among lay citizens. For the most part, research has delved into the main antecedents that explain this type of consumption. However, research has generally neglected to consider political consumerism as an independent variable, and its role influencing and igniting other forms of political behavior. This study theoretically argues that politically motivated consumerism will incite people to generally seek to persuade others of political issues. Using causal order tests and Random Intercept Cross-lagged Panel Structural Equation Models from a two-wave panel survey from the United States, the study shows robust empirical evidence that this is the case.
... The topics published in electoral studies journals help us understand the phenomenon of female voters' tendencies(Woo Chang , populism (Haugsgjerd, 2019;Cassell, 2021); for example, in Denmark (Thesen, 2018), Great Britain (Magni, 2017), Dutch (van Heerden & van der Brug, 2017Rooduijn et al., 2016), in the European parliament elections (Zulianello & Larsen, 2021; and the leadership of political parties (Cozza & Somer-Topcu, 2021). Furthermore, there is also political racism in the 2014 and 2016 Brazilian elections (A Janusz, 2021), ideological polarization in a democratic system (Dalton, 2021), party polarization and its effect on voter turnout (Muñoz & Meguid, 2021), voter fragmentation due to polarization of political parties as happened in the Netherlands (Harteveld, 2021), use and influence of mass media in German elections (Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010), use of social media in elections (Nulty et al., 2016;Nai & Maier, 2020;Quinlan et al., 2015;Hendrawan et al., 2021) and patronage (Mechkova & Wilson, 2021). ...
Article
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Elections are one of the important topics in the study of global democracy. This study aims to analyze scientific literature in the Journal of Electoral Studies as one of the highly reputable international journals from 2016 to August 2021. The data was analyzed using a bibliometric approach and visualization using VOSViewer and R Studio. This study took 618 articles from various international authors which showed that the electoral studies journal was consistently published with the most authors coming from the United States even though the origin of the university came from the Universiteit van Amsterdam Netherlands. Voting behavior and elections are two important keywords that often appear, indicating that these two issues are most often discussed by authors because they are considered to contribute greatly to electoral studies. These two keywords will also continue to be relevant in future election studies both in electoral studies journals and in other reputable journals because the development of the issue is very dynamic.Pemilu merupakan salah satu topik penting dalam kajian demokrasi global. Penelitian ini bertujuan melakukan analisis literatur ilmiah di Jurnal electoral Studies sebagai salah satu jurnal internasional bereputasi tinggi dari terbitan 2016 sampai dengan Agustus 2021. Data dianalisa dengan menggunakan pendekatan bibliometrik dan visualisasi menggunakan VOSViewer dan R Studio. Studi ini mengambil 618 artikel dari berbagai penulis internasional yang menunjukan bahwa jurnal electoral studies konsisten terbit dengan penulis terbanyak berasal dari amerika serikat meskipun untuk asal universitas berasal dari Universiteit van Amsterdam Belanda. Voting behavior dan elections adalah 2 kata kunci penting yang sering muncul yang menandakan bahwa kedua isu tersebut paling sering dibahas oleh para penulis karena dianggap sangat memberikan kontribusi dalam kajian kepemiluan. Kedua kata kunci tersebut juga akan terus relevan dalam kajian-kajian pemilu selanjutnya baik di jurnal electoral studies maupun di jurnal-jurnal bereputasi lainya karena perkembangan isunya yang sangat dinamis.
... Vorliegende Studien sind dementsprechend in der Regel Fallstudien zu einzelnen oder mehreren Städten (u. a. Schmitt-Beck et al. 2008;Schmitt-Beck und Mackenrodt 2010). Zum anderen basieren die meisten Studien ausschließlich auf Aggregatdaten (Kjaer und Steyvers 2019, S. 408;Holtkamp und Garske 2021;Vetter 2014). ...
Article
Full-text available
Zusammenfassung Kommunalwahlen werden nicht zuletzt aufgrund ihrer geringen Wahlbeteiligung häufig als nationale Nebenwahlen betrachtet. Die Fokussierung der Nebenwahlperspektive auf nationale Einflussfaktoren führt jedoch zu einer Unterbewertung lokaler Heterogenität. Der Artikel untersucht, inwiefern lokale Kontextfaktoren, insbesondere Gemeindegröße, Wahl- und Parteiensysteme sowie die wahrgenommene Bedeutung der kommunalen Ebene einen Beitrag zur Erklärung von Beteiligungsunterschieden zwischen Kommunalwahlen leisten. Dazu analysieren wir die Wahlbeteiligung bei den Kommunalwahlen 2014 in neun Bundesländern. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Wahlsysteme freier Listen einen negativen Einfluss auf die Wahlbeteiligung haben. Die Erwartung, dass die kommunale Wahlbeteiligung mit steigender Gemeindegröße abnimmt, kann hingegen nur mit Einschränkung bestätigt werden. Auch kann ein Einfluss des lokalen Parteiensystems nur unter Vorbehalt nachgewiesen werden. Gemeinden mit nationalisiertem Parteiensystem genießen zwar eine höhere Wahlbeteiligung, aber der Effekt ist nur von geringem Umfang und kann lediglich auf der Aggregatdatenebene geschätzt werden. In Einklang mit der Nebenwahlthese zeigt sich schließlich, dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit der individuellen Wahlteilnahme mit der wahrgenommenen Bedeutung der Kommunalwahlen steigt.
... According to official reports, as of January 1, 2020, the number of internet subscribers in Ukraine was 28,787.6 thousand people (Number of Internet..., 2020). At the same time, on January 16, 2020, Media Business Reports (MBR) -an informationanalytical publication on the media business and audio-visual industry, published generalised data of the video content agency VIDEOFIRMA; their figures were slightly lower -25.6 million people made up the online audience of Ukraine, 23 million used the Internet periodically; 70% of Ukrainians visit the network weekly, 80% of all Internet users watch videos on the YouTube platform (Ahmed, 2021;Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010). An interesting analytical report was prepared in March 2020 by Koldomasov (2020), a participant of the programme "Interns with Experience", who addressed the methods of direct and indirect communication of modern parliamentary parties in Ukraine, the thematic content of their sites, the number of site visitors, offline communication through local cells. ...
Article
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The dynamics of the creation of the party press in Ukraine at the end of the 20th – beginning of the 21st century becomes obvious in the context of the emergence of new parties and the establishment of their journals. The main purpose of political communication is to inform, persuade, and mobilise the electorate. The quantitative indicators of the party press have changed because the number of parties has increased, as a result of which new publications have appeared more intensively. The party press is one of the most important sources of information about the party and its leader(s), the social orientation of the programme foundations; it is one of the main channels of communication with party members, supporters, and opponents. As a result of the development of information technologies, political parties started using internet resources to establish effective communication with more voters. The use of digital technologies, multimedia tools, bringing the information and propaganda activities of parties closer to the needs and opportunities of the readership in a certain way expands the social and communication horizons of party influence.
... Network-based theories hold that networks can amplify information effects. While anonymous protesters can be brushed off as extremists or radicals, environmental cues from one's own social context are harder to ignore (Schmitt- Beck and Mackenrodt, 2010). ...
... La deliberación en democracias contemporáneas ocurre, la mayor parte del tiempo, mediante dos mecanismos importantes de intermediación: la discusión entre ciudadanos y la exposición a la información de los medios de comunicación. La discusión política puede producir una ciudadanía más informada y comprometida (Eveland y Thomson, 2006;Eveland y Hively, 2009) y conduce a mayores niveles de participación política (Verba, Scholzman y Brady, 1995;Lake y Huckfeldt, 1998;Mutz, 2002a;Sheufele, Nisbet, Brossard y Nisbet, 2004;Schmitt-Beck y Mackenrodt, 2010). Esta influencia positiva ha sido señalada tanto si se habla de la cantidad de interlocutores personales a los que el ciudadano está expuesto, como para la presencia de distintos puntos de vista políticos entre estos interlocutores (Huckfeldt, Mendez y Osborn, 2004;Mutz, 2002a;Nir, 2005;Moy y Gastil, 2006). ...
... For instance, by comparing self-reported and validated data in Denmark, Dahlgaard and colleagues (2019) show that survey measures fail to detect the actual, though small, gender gap in turnout in favour of women. By applying a similar research design in Switzerland, Sciarini and Goldberg (2016) found that political involvement makes individual participation in electoral surveys more likely. Even self-reported measures of party contact could be affected by non-random measurement errors, since politically engaged people could be more likely to over-report the number of contacts. ...
Article
In recent years several European countries have experienced a significant decrease in turnout, even as the level of campaign professionalisation has been increasing. Since scholars have recognised mobilisation as a key aspect in determining turnout, this article aims to disentangle the effects of mobilisation on electoral participation. It will do this by focussing on the 2013 Parliamentary Election in Austria, which saw the lowest turnout rate ever recorded in that country. The data used are taken from the Austrian National Election Study Rolling Cross-Section Panel 2013. This data source allows for the dynamic analysis of campaign effects through LOWESS estimations of the daily means of the measures of interest. Moreover, its panel structure permits us to take under control the individual likelihood to turn out before the elections whilst studying the effects of various forms of party contact on self-reported turnout. The findings show that only personal forms of party contact significantly increase electoral participation. Furthermore, these forms are more effective in increasing the turnout among low-propensity voters. Overall, one of the main contributions of the work is to provide differentiated estimations of the effects of various forms of party contact on turnout, computed on the same sample and concerning the same electoral context.
... Trifft eine Person außerhalb der Familie sehr häufig auf Diskussionspartner, die nicht seine ideologische Einstellung und Wertvorstellung teilen, dann hat dies einen Einfluss auf die Stabilität der Wahlabsicht sowie auf die Mobilisierungsbereitschaft des betroffenen Individuums (vgl. auchSchmitt-Beck und Mackenrodt 2010). ...
Chapter
In this book, 30 contributions provide a comprehensive overview of theories and findings from research on political attitudes and political behaviour, subdivided into the fields of ‘political communication’, ‘political attitudes’, ‘political participation’, ‘voting behaviour’ and ‘methods’.
... The mass media communicate political perceptions and codetermines voting behavior (Campus, Pasquino, & Vaccari, 2008;Pabjan & Pekalski, 2008;Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010). Multiple election studies documented the significance of the media in political campaigning by claiming agenda-setting theory effects (Campus, 2008;Dunn, 2009;Balmas & Sheafer, 2010;Nesbitt-Larking, 2010). ...
Research
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Communication, political party perception and voting behavior of the people keep congenial nexus. Grounded on this bond, the main purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that impact political party perception and voting behavior of the people in Nepal from the perspective of communication, particularly residing on social networking sites: Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. In purposive sampling method perception level detailed data were obtained from 333 respondents aged 20 years and above just before the historic constitutional assembly election in Nepal. A set of questionnaires including multiple choices and Likert scale questions were provided to obtain the information. Drawing the coherent substance from Technological Determinism, Social Judgment, Agenda Setting, Uses and Gratification, and Habermas's Concept of Public Sphere and Political Campaign theories, the research explores the roles of social media in political party perception and voting behavior. The results show that political interest is positively related to political party perception and voting behavior, which infer that political party perception is influenced by political interest of the politician. The analysis also indicates that political trust is also positively related to political perception and voting behavior, which shows that political trust highly influences political party perception. Likewise, religion and social media are also positively related to political party perception and voting behavior. The study roots on primary source of data and contributes to understand the impact of social media in the society and politics.
... The mass media communicate political perceptions and codetermines voting behavior (Campus, Pasquino, & Vaccari, 2008;Pabjan & Pekalski, 2008;Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010). Multiple election studies documented the significance of the media in political campaigning by claiming agenda-setting theory effects (Campus, 2008;Dunn, 2009;Balmas & Sheafer, 2010;Nesbitt-Larking, 2010). ...
Article
Full-text available
Communication, political party perception and voting behavior of the people keep congenial nexus. Grounded on this bond, the main purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that impact political party perception and voting be- havior of the people in Nepal from the perspective of communication, partic- ularly residing on social networking sites: Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. In purposive sampling method perception level detailed data were obtained from 333 respondents aged 20 years and above just before the historic con- stitutional assembly election in Nepal. A set of questionnaires including mul- tiple choices and Likert scale questions were provided to obtain the informa- tion. Drawing the coherent substance from Technological Determinism, So- cial Judgment, Agenda Setting, Uses and Gratification, and Habermas’s Con- cept of Public Sphere and Political Campaign theories, the research explores the roles of social media in political party perception and voting behavior. The results show that political interest is positively related to political party perception and voting behavior, which infer that political party perception is influenced by political interest of the politician. The analysis also indicates that political trust is also positively related to political perception and voting behavior, which shows that political trust highly influences political party perception. Likewise, religion and social media are also positively related to political party perception and voting behavior. The study roots on primary source of data and contributes to understand the impact of social media in the society and politics.
... También se suele mencionar la corrupción como otro factor, pero con menos frecuencia y énfasis. En otros países, en cambio, se encuentran un mayor número de posibles explicaciones, por ejemplo, hay trabajos que revisan si los medios de comunicación (al concentrarse en malas noticias) se relacionan con la evaluación del Gobierno y sus funcionarios (Street, 2011;Pinkleton, Austin, Zhou, Willoughby y Reiser, 2012;Schmitt-Beck y Mackenrodt, 2010). Esta idea sólo generó un tímido eco en México (Molina y Vedia, 2004). ...
Article
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This paper puts to test the hypothesis that Mexican citizens are dissatisfied with its government because it has not fulfilled expectations, mainly in regard to economy and security, since political discontent with Mexican government has become a problem for democracy in this country. Using data from the Latinobarómetro, it was found that those with worse opinions of economy and security are actually those who held the worse opinion of the government. However, this relationship did not appear when real economic and security data were considered instead of the perception of these, so qualitative interviews were conducted, and it was found that citizens have a moral expectation of their officials that seems to determine their opinions and expectations. This moral demand doesn’t appear to be related to pragmatic government performance.
... Further, social media enable relatively close communicative contact with a wider network-encompassing everything from campaign outreach to exposure to cross-cutting communication-of weaker ties than everyday analog life (De Meo, Ferrara, Fiumara, & Provetti, 2014;Kim & Chen, 2016;Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010). Given that the nature of political information on social media remains an unresolved debate, we refrain from offering a directional hypothesis, asking instead: ...
Article
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When political disputes devolve into heated partisan conflicts, do the factors known to trigger electoral political engagement continue to operate, or do they change? We consider this question during a divisive electoral context—a gubernatorial recall—focusing on how media consumption, conversations, and interactions with social media feed into the decision to participate in politics. To do so, we employ high-quality survey data collected in the weeks before the 2012 Wisconsin recall election. Results indicate that during times of contentious politics, political communication does not operate as observed in less polarized settings, calling into question widely held assumptions about what spurs and suppresses electoral participation. Most notably, we find that broadcast news consumption negatively predicts participation, whereas political conversation with coworkers and use of political social media positively predict participation. The implications for electoral behavior research in contentious political environments are discussed.
... Sjaldan eða aldrei gegna fjölmiðlar jafn veigamiklu hlutverki eins og í kosningum. Þannig getur umfjöllun fjölmiðla baeði hvatt og latt fólk til að maeta á kjörstað og nýta kosningarétt sinn (Schmitt-Beck og Mackenrodt, 2010). Í nóvember 2010 var kosið til stjórnlagaþings á Íslandi og buðu 522 sig fram til setu á þinginu. ...
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tdráttur: Fyrstu fraeðilegu rannsóknirnar á fjölmiðlum og notendum þeirra voru gerðar í lok þriðja áratugar 20. aldar. Í upphafi voru það einkum félagsfraeðingar, sálfraeðingar og stjórnmálafraeðingar sem stunduðu fjölmiðlarannsóknir. Nú á tímum er fjölmiðlafraeði kennd sem sjálfstaeð fraeðigrein en hún spannar enn víðfemt svið. Bandarískar rannsóknir þykja undir sterkum áhrifum félagssálfraeð-innar meðan margir evrópskir fraeðimenn nálgast hins vegar viðfangsefni sín út frá sjónarhóli málvísinda og jafnvel heimspeki. Raetur íslenskra fjölmiðlafraeði-rannsókna hafa í hálfa öld legið í megindlegum aðferðum til að rannsaka notkun barna og unglinga á fjölmiðlum en sjónum hefur í auknum maeli verið beint að hlutverki fjölmiðla í kosningum og starfsumhverfi og vinnubrögðum blaða-og fréttamanna. Lykilorð: Fjölmiðlarannsóknir ■ fjölmiðlanotkun barna ■ áhrif fjölmiðla fjölmiðlar og stjórnmál ■ starfsumhverfi blaðamanna Abstract: Academic research on media and media users started towards the end of the 1920s. Initially media research was primarily conducted by sociologists, psychologists and political scientists. Although media studies have become an independent discipline, the field has retained its interdisciplinary characteristics. There is some difference between media studies in the United States and Europe, as U.S. researchers tend to be strongly influenced by social psychology. In contrast, many European scholars approach media from the perspective of linguistics and even philosophy. In the beginning of media research in Iceland, scholars employed quantitative methods in studies of media use by children and adolescents but recently they have turned their research focus more towards political communication and elections, and the culture of journalism.
... The very nature of social networks makes this source of information more likely to influence citizen electoral expectations and behavior than other sources such as the news media or polls. For instance, Schmitt-Beck and Mackenrodt (2010) show that personal communication appears to be more influential regarding turnout in a German local election than mass communication. Despite the fact that the media and polls may provide more reliable and balanced information about the electoral environment than social networks, information from social networks may provide more personalized information by using language and terms that are closer to the local context and more familiar. ...
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Most citizens correctly forecast which party will win a given election, and such forecasts usually have a higher level of accuracy than voter intention polls. How do citizens do it? We argue that social networks are a big part of the answer: much of what we know as citizens comes from our interactions with others. Previous research has considered only indirect characteristics of social networks when analyzing why citizens are good forecasters. We use a unique German survey and consider direct measures of social networks in order to explore their role in election forecasting. We find that three network characteristics – size, political composition, and frequency of political discussion – are among the most important variables when predicting the accuracy of citizens’ election forecasts.
... Утицај Интернета и друштвених мрежа на стварање или промену политичких, социјалних или економских околности у државама, био је предмет бројних истраживања (Schmitt-Beck & Mackenrodt, 2010;Margetts et al., 2011;Bošković & Putnik, 2011). Са увећањем броја друштвених мрежа и усавршавањем графичких корисничких интерфејса, социјални и политички активисти имају још више мо-гућности да одржавају дебате, доказују властите "истине", сакупљају новчане фондове или врбују нове чланове. ...
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... The very nature of social networks makes this source of information more likely to influence citizen electoral expectations and behavior than other sources such as the news media or polls. For instance, Schmitt-Beck and Mackenrodt (2010) show that personal communication appears to be more influential regarding turnout in a German local election than mass communication. Despite the fact that the media and polls may provide more reliable and balanced information about the electoral environment than social networks, information from social networks may provide more personalized information by using language and terms that are closer to the local context and more familiar. ...
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Most citizens correctly forecast which party will win the election, usually with greater accuracy than voter intention polls. How do they do it? We argue that social networks are a big part of the answer: much of what we know as citizens comes from our communication with others. Previous research has considered only indirect characteristics of social networks to analyze why citizens are good forecasters. Using a unique German survey, we consider direct measures of social networks to explore their role in election forecasting. We find that three network characteristics – size, political composition, and frequency of political discussion – are among the most important variables when predicting the accuracy of citizens' election forecasts.
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This research project examines the influence of propagandistic content on Facebook during the 2023 sectional elections in Imbabura, Ecuador. It draws attention to the strategic communication requirements that align with generational preferences and the distinctive characteristics of each digital platform. The objective is to elucidate the influence of such content on voting decisions and public perceptions of candidates. A case study approach was employed, integrating discourse analysis through Atlas.ti and the application of factor analysis to survey interpretation. The findings revealed that specific content, such as memes, exerts a notable influence on the younger electorate. This influence is reinforced by communication strategies that emphasise the frequency and repetition of this content, although no direct correlation with key demographic variables was found. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that a communication strategy devoid of value con-tent reduces social networks to mere information channels, akin to open television. In conclusion, the study emphasises the necessity for digital communication strategies that prioritise the crea-tion of valuable content for audiences, with the aim of fostering a more discerning and engaged electorate.
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Die Mobilisierung der Bürgerinnen und Bürger ist ein wichtiges Ziel jeder Wahlkampagne, auch weil die Höhe der Wahlbeteiligung mitentscheidend ist für das Abschneiden der einzelnen Parteien. Viele empirische Studien gehen daher der Frage nach, ob Wahlwerbung oder andere Kampagnenmaßnahmen zur Mobilisierung der Wahlberechtigten beitragen. Bisherige Untersuchungen konnten jedoch nicht aufklären, ob Zusammenhänge zwischen Wahlkommunikation und Mobilisierung tatsächlich auf einen Kommunikationseffekt zurückgehen oder doch eher auf selektive Kommunikationsnutzung der schon Mobilisierten. Diesen blinden Fleck der Forschung beseitigt dieser Beitrag exemplarisch mit einem statistischen Ansatz, der zwischen Effektbeziehungen und Selektionsbeziehungen unterscheidet. Anhand von Daten eines Panels zur Bundestagswahl 2017 lassen sich Mobilisierungseffekte sowohl für Wahlwerbung wie auch für politische Gespräche nachweisen, ebenso auch Selektionsbeziehungen - also Selektion von Wahlkommunikation, ausgehend von der Wahlabsicht. Darüber hinaus zeigt die Analyse dynamische Reziprozität über mehrere Wochen nach dem Muster einer Spiralbeziehung, und zwar für die Beziehungen zwischen Werbung und Wahlabsicht, wobei die Wahlabsicht in der frühen Phase des Wahlkampfs ein stärkerer Treiber der Dynamik ist als die Wahlwerbung. Die dynamische Reziprozität ist besonders ausgeprägt bei Personen, die zu Beginn der heißen Kampagnenphase parteipolitisch noch nicht entschieden sind.
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Recent decades have seen an upsurge of interest in populist radical right (PRR) parties. Yet despite a large body of research on PRR voters, there are few studies of the internal life of these parties. In particular, there is a dearth of research about why people are active in them. This article uses data from a unique large-scale survey of United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) members to investigate if drivers of voting support for these parties are also important for explaining party activism. Analyses show that traditional models of party activism are important for understanding engagement in UKIP, but macro-level forces captured in an expanded relative deprivation model also stimulate participation in the party. That said macro-level forces are not the dominant driver of activism.
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The MZES project 'Conversations of Democracy' (CoDem) addresses a major gap in the empirical study of deliberative politics. Although democratic theory's deliberative turn stimulated increasing interest in the role of talk for the quality of democratic politics, research has paid hardly any attention to ordinary citizens' informal conversations about politics so far. No assured knowledge exists about how this form of political communication stands up to the high normative standards of deliberation. Likewise, there is no robust evidence on the factors that lead to a higher deliberative quality of everyday political talk, nor on whether everyday political talk actually entails the beneficial influences on the democratic process expected by deliberative theory. By investigating the deliberativeness as well as the conditions and consequences of everyday political talk, the project seeks to contribute to a deeper understanding of people's conversations about public affairs as the most basic form of political communication and foundation of democracy's deliberative system. The paper offers an overview of the background, aims and rationale of the project. It discusses the research design and documents its implementation in detail. The methodological core of the project is a face-to-face survey of voters that was conducted during the run-up to the 2017 German federal election in the city of Mannheim. Two further design components are derivatives from this baseline survey: re-interviews of the same respondents in a second panel wave conducted via telephone several months after the election, and follow-up telephone or Web interviews with individuals whom the respondents named as their most important political discussion partners during the main interviews.
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The present study was conducted with the aim of analyzing the impact of social networks on political socialization and political participation of political science students of the Islamic Azad University of Tehran, Tehran south branch during 2007-2017. This article is a descriptive-survey research based on the theory of planned behavior and has been done based on random sampling with a population of 280 samples. The findings indicate that 93% of students use social media and spend a significant part of their study hours on social networks, which mainly include Telegram, Instagram, Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp. The variables related to social networks affect the socialization and political participation of students, and the extent of the impact of social networks on encouraging individuals to participate in the election as a component of political socialization is positive and significant. This finding and other findings are a positive and significant impact of social networks on the attitudes, values and norms, attitudes and behaviors of political science students as a sample population, and thus the hypothesis of this research has been confirmed.
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When casting a split-ticket ballot, voters in established democracies have strong political predispositions and electoral experience that influence their decision. However, voters in a new democracy, lacking long-term party attachment and experience with democracy, may instead be informed and motivated by their social networks. Using the 1990 Cross-National Election Project German Unification study, I examine which factors predict split-ticket voting for East and West Germans. I find that political disagreement within a social network is more influential for East Germans, while partisan predispositions, particularly party supporter type, play a greater role for West Germans. These findings indicate that, in absence of competition between long-term partisanship and democratic experience, network characteristics may have a profound impact on political decision-making.
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The rational choice model of voting has been criticized for the fact that citizens expecting greater costs than the benefits associated with voting still turn out. This article focuses on the function of partisanship by which the effect of the rational calculation on voting is moderated. Previous studies have only tested the effect of partisanship on turnout additively failing to explore its interactions with the costs and benefits of voting. My multilevel analyses using the CSES data show that partisanship significantly moderates the effects of the information costs and intrinsic benefits of voting on turnout. These results, however, are not found in the postcommunist new democracies with unstable party systems hindering partisanship from serving as a political cue and from providing an expressive satisfaction of voting.
Chapter
Schon lange stellen Medien und interessierte Öffentlichkeit die Frage, was denn mit „der Jugend“ von heute los sei? Statt protestierend auf die Straße zu gehen oder sich in demokratischen Parteien zu engagieren, säßen, so heißt es, die jungen Leute „von heute“ nur träge in Cafés und tränken Cappuccinos. Statt Einsatz für das Kollektivgut Demokratie sei die sogenannte „Generation Golf“ nur mit sich selbst und ihrem Leben beschäftigt. Besonders gerne werden solche Anwürfe von Autoren der 1968er Generation, heute selbst über 60 Jahre alt, formuliert, die ihre politisierte Jugendzeit als idealistische Blaupause nutzen. Wechselweise wird jungen Menschen dabei Politikverdrossenheit, Apathie oder Unlust auf die zähen und komplexen Prozesse demokratischer Entscheidungsfindung vorgeworfen. Gleichzeitig beobachten wir, dass in Deutschland aber auch in anderen etablierten Demokratien die Wahlbeteiligung teilweise massiv sinkt. Was liegt also näher als der nachwachsenden Generation die Schuld zu geben?
Article
When deciding to cast a split ticket ballot, voters in established democracies can rely on their experience with democracy and long term party attachments to guide their voting behavior. However, voters in new democracies do not have these individual level sources of information and motivation, and may instead rely on information from their social networks. Using the 1990 Cross-National Election Project German Unification election study, I examine the information sources West and East Germans use when splitting their ballot. I find that political disagreement within a social network is much more influential in decisions to cast a split ticket ballot for East German voters, while individual-level traits, particularly party attachment, play a greater role for West German voters. These findings indicate that, in absence of competition between individual-level information sources, network characteristics may have a profound impact on political decision-making.
Chapter
Der Beitrag untersucht die soziale Topografie der Nichtwahl. Auf Basis von Zeitreihen, Daten aus 1 000 Stadtteilen in 28 Großstädten und einer repräsentativen Stichprobe von 640 Stimmbezirken zeigen wir, dass Unterschiede in der Beteiligungsrate im Verlauf der letzten vier Jahrzehnte massiv angestiegen sind. Zudem weisen sie ein klares Muster auf: Ist die Arbeitslosenquote hoch und der Abiturientenanteil gering, erreicht die Wahlbeteiligung regelmäßig Tiefstwerte. Ist hingegen die Zahl der Arbeitslosen gering und der Anteil an Abiturienten hoch, ist auch die Wahlbeteiligung entsprechend hoch. Wo sich soziale Probleme verdichten, geht heute selbst bei Bundestagswahlen nur noch die Hälfte der Wahlberechtigten zur Wahl. Dieses Phänomen tritt nicht allein in den großstädtischen Problembezirken auf, sondern ist immer dort zu finden, wo soziale Benachteiligungen kumulieren – auf dem Land wie in der Großstadt, im Osten und im Westen Deutschlands gleichermaßen. Unser Befund ist somit eindeutig: Unterschiede in der Wahlbeteiligung sind nicht nur groß (und steigend), sondern auch sozialstrukturell bedingt und kleinräumlich klumpend.
Article
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This paper establishes the methodological foundations for a systematic analysis of the direct impact of the media on the vote. We propose to combine two different approaches: the ‘linkage’ approach which relates media coverage to voting intentions, and the ‘attentiveness’ approach which compares the vote choice of those who pay most and least attention to television news. We apply these two methods to the 1997 Canadian election. We find support for the hypothesis that, during the election campaign, voting intentions for a party increased (decreased) when media coverage of that party was systematically positive (or negative), among those who followed the news and decided how to vote during the campaign, but we find no evidence that, on election day, those more attentive to the news voted differently from those less attentive. We conclude that the media temporarily moved voting intentions during the course of the 1997 Canadian election but that they appear to have had no direct impact on the final vote.
Article
Full-text available
According to the rational choice model, the calculus of voting takes the form of the equation R = BP - C, where the net rewards for voting (R) are a function of the instrumental benefits from the preferred outcome compared to others (B) and the probability (P) of casting the decisive vote that secures these benefits, minus the costs of becoming informed and going to the polls (C). Here, we provide a systematic test of this model. The analysis relies on two surveys, conducted during the 1995 Quebec referendum and the 1996 British Columbia provincial election, in which very specific questions measured each element of the model. As well, this study incorporates two other factors that can affect the propensity to vote – respondents' level of political interest and their sense of duty. We find that B, P, and C each matter, but only among those with a relatively weak sense of duty. The feeling that one has a moral obligation to vote is the most powerful motivation to go to the polls. We conclude that the rational choice model is useful, but only in explaining behaviour at the margins of this important norm.
Article
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This article discusses the consequences of deregulation of the electronic mass media for political programming. The particular focus of the current debate in Germany is the question of whether the dualization of the broadcasting system, which kick-started intensive competition between the public and commercial stations, will bring about convergent programming. Such a development was thought to undermine the communication of political information and eventually contribute to a weakening of the political functions of television. The article reports findings from a study of television news comparing the presentation of politics in 1985/6 immediately after the deregulation of television and in 1993 when the dual broadcasting system was well established. The evidence suggests that the heavy competition between public and commercial stations does have an impact on the communication of politics to the effect that the marginalization of political information continues, while at the same time political coverage in the news genre format converges. Moreover, the innovation which came about through commercialization is that `serious' politics on television is reduced to the traditional news format, while new formats have appeared that blur the boundaries between political information and entertainment.
Book
Why do some citizens vote while others do not? Why does less than half of the American voting public routinely show up at the polls? Why is it that the vast majority of political issues affecting our day-to-day lives fail to generate either public interest or understanding? These questions have troubled political scientists for decades. Here, Kathleen Hall Jamieson and Joseph N. Cappella provide the first conclusive evidence to date that it is indeed the manner in which the print and broadcast media cover political events and issues that fuels voter non-participation. This book illustrates precisely how the media’s heavy focus on the game of politics, rather than on its substance, starts a “spiral of cynicism” that directly causes an erosion of citizen interest and, ultimately, citizen participation. Having observed voters who watched and read different sets of reports—some saturated in strategy talk, others focused on the real issues—the authors show decisive links between the way in which the media covers campaigns’ and voters’ levels of cynicism and participation. By closely monitoring media coverage among sample audiences for both the recent mayoral race in Philadelphia and the national health care reform debate, the authors confront issues concerning the effects of issue-based and competitive-based political coverage. Finally, they address the question repeatedly asked by news editors, “Will the public read or watch an alternative media coverage that has more substance? ” The answer their findings so clearly reveal is “yes.” Spiral of Cynicism is a pioneering work that will urge the media to take a close look at how it covers political events and issues, as well as its degree of culpability in current voter dissatisfaction, cynicism, and non-participation. For, in these pages, a possible cure to such ills is just what Jamieson and Cappella have to offer. Moreover, their work is likely to redefine the terms of the very debate on how politics should be covered in the future.
Article
Social Capital is created through the patterns of interdependence and social interaction that occur within a population, and we attempt to understand the participatory consequences of these patterns relative to the effects of human capital and organizational involvement. The production of social capital in personal networks was examined with the use of social network and participation data from the 1992 American study of the Cross National Election project. The results suggest that politically relevant social capital (that is, social capital that facilitates political engagement) is generated in personal networks, that ir is a by-product of the social interactions with a citizen's discussants, and that increasing levels of politically relevant social capital enhance the likelihood that a citizen will be engaged in politics. Further, the production of politically relevant social capital is a function of the political expertise within an individual's network of relations, the frequency of political interaction within the network, and the size or extensiveness of the network. These results are sustained even while taking account of a person's individual characteristics and organizational involvement. Hence, the consequences of social relations within networks are not readily explained away on the basis of either human capital effects ol the effects of organizational engagement.
Chapter
In political science, the study of political choice and behavior-the focus of this collection of essays-has had a complex relationship with the social logic of politics. It is both obvious and well known that the immediate social circumstances of people's lives influence what they believe and do about politics. Even so, relatively few political scientists incorporate these principles into their analyses. The founders of the behavioral revolution in political science-Angus Campbell, Philip Converse, Warren Miller, and Donald Stokes, Anthony Downs, Heinz Eulau, V. O. Key, Robert Lane, and Sidney Verba-those intellectual visionaries who set the agenda for more than half a century of scholarship-understood and accepted these theoretical principles. Even so, they directed research away from them. Driven primarily by issues of data and survey methodology, Campbell, Converse, Miller, and Stokes changed direction, first in small steps and then in leaps and bounds. Explicit theoretical needs moved others like Key and Downs to blaze new paths. None, I will argue, offered compelling reasons for the change of course. Furthermore, recent advances in theory and methods support a return to the social logic of political behavior. This chapter offers an intellectual history. I present the critical texts that helped to define the research orientation. Passages, statements, and long quotations stand as the data for this analysis. Here I set out the story of the social logic of politics in the behavioral revolution in political science, and I give reasons for political scientists and others who study political choice and behavior to return to this social logic.
Article
The shift away from the social logic of politics noted by Alan Zuckerman in Chapter 1 has not only served to reinforce the perception that social location is a secondary, less important determinant of political choice but also led some to conclude that modern citizens have become largely independent of groups and social influence. For example, Dalton and Wattenberg (1993, 212-13), in their review of the voting literature, argue that the balance of research regarding voting behavior suggests that modern citizens are increasingly employing a more individualized approach to decision making, one that leads them to rely only marginally on others in this process. Although few would agree that this asocial model of political choice accurately represents reality for most Americans, it is striking how little empirical evidence exists to challenge it. The purpose of this chapter is to take a closer look at the network basis of modern political choice in order to assess the extent to which modern citizens conform to the individualized model. I seek to determine, first, whether social networks exert an impact on choice that is both immediate and powerful, even after controlling for key attitudinal variables. As noted, few political scientists argue that modern citizens make decisions entirely without the help of social contacts. Nevertheless, it is important to demonstrate not only the existence of network effects but also their relative strength. I also look to see whether social influence operates beyond the boundaries of close relationships such as family members and close friends to involve more casual acquaintances. Information that is communicated through such acquaintances has two important characteristics: It is more likely to be both contradictory and current than information received through intimate contacts (Granovetter 1973; Huckfeldt and Sprague 1995; Huckfeldt et al. 1995; also see Kotler-Berkowitz and Lin, in this volume). As a consequence, evidence that social influence occurs outside cohesive social groups would indicate that social interaction consists of more than a simple exchange of opinions between like-minded citizens. Instead, it would suggest that citizens engage in the sort of the discussions long considered necessary to the democratic process-those in which they are exposed to novel and contradictory points of view (Berelson 1952, 324). I find that that even after controlling for powerful individual-level attitudinal variables, social network members exert a direct, powerful, and consistent influence on key political decisions, including candidate choice, partisan affiliation, and key issue opinions. In addition, the analyses confirm that social influence is not restricted to networks of family members or close friends; a significant amount of persuasion occurs outside of such intimate relationships. These results not only present a strong empirical challenge to the individualized model of citizen choice but also suggest the existence of a modern citizenry capable of engaging in informal deliberation and debate.
Chapter
Als bei der Bundestagswahl 1987 die Beteiligung von 89,1 Prozent um 4,8 Prozentpunkte auf 84,3 Prozent abnahm, konnte man sich noch mit dem Gedanken beruhigen, der ungewöhnliche Wahltermin am 25. Januar mit einer nachhaltigen Unterbrechung des Wahlkampfs durch die Weihnachtszeit und einem, wie Umfragen zeigten, weitgehend festliegenden Ergebnis zugunsten der regierenden konservativliberalen Koalition habe zu dieser Abnahme geführt. Um so gespannter mußte man der nächsten Bundestagswahl entgegensehen, die entweder eine Korrektur oder Bestätigung der sich 1987 erstmals andeutenden Tendenz erbringen würde.
Chapter
In der amerikanischen Wahlforschung, die auch heute noch die internationalen Standards setzt, hat der Rational-Choice-Ansatz in den letzten Jahrzehnten einen erheblichen Aufschwung genommen. Es ist sicherlich nicht unangemessen, von einem Paradigmenwechsel vom sozialpsychologischen Ansatz der Michigan-Schule zum Rational-Choice-Ansatz zu sprechen. Allerdings geben die Kritiker des Rational-Choice-Ansatzes das Feld nicht umstandslos preis, wie eine kürzlich von Green und Shapiro vorgelegte, äußerst differenzierte und sehr kritische Bestandsaufnahme der Anwendung dieses Ansatzes in der Politikwissenschaft zeigt1.
Article
In recent years there has been a revived interest in the question of whether the media can not only inform, but also persuade their audiences. Opinions, attitudes, and even behavior are no longer believed to be totally immune from media influences (Page et al. 1987; Ansolabehere et al. 1993; Bartels 1993; Kepplinger et al. 1994; Joslyn and Ceccoli 1996; Zaller 1996; Dalton et al. 1998; Kinder 1998; Schmitt-Beck 2000; Denemark 2002; Farrell and Schmitt-Beck 2002). This chapter will discuss this theme in comparative perspective, with a particular focus on voting decisions. Two different angles of comparison will be applied. One concerns differences and similarities between various countries and societies. As Blumler and Gurevitch note, inspecting political communication in more than one systemic context can serve as an “essential antidote” against ethnocentrism and premature generalizations (Gurevitch and Blumler 1990, 308–9). The empirical basis for analytical statements is extended, and above all it becomes clear to what extent observed relationships are tied to specific settings and contexts (Dogan and Pelassy 1984, 5–19; Kohn 1989, 21–2). Another dimension of comparison concerns different modes of political communication. Voters not only participate in processes of mass communication, thus opening up avenues for media influence; to varying degrees, they also talk to other people and discuss political matters. The messages they receive during such conversations may also influence their attitudes and behavioral intentions (Huckfeldt and Sprague 1995).
Article
People decide about political parties by taking into account the preferences, values, expectations, and perceptions of their family, friends, colleagues, and neighbors. As most persons live with others, members of their households influence each other's political decisions. How and what they think about politics and what they do are the outcomes of social processes. Analyzing data from extensive German and British household surveys, this book shows that wives and husbands influence each other; young adults influence their parents, especially their mothers. Wives and mothers sit at the center of households: their partisanship influences the partisanship of everyone else, and the others affect them. © Alan S. Zuckerman, Josip Dasovi´c, Jennifer Fitzgerald 2007.
Article
Without the experience of disagreement, political communication among citizens loses value and meaning. At the same time, political disagreement and diversity do not always or inevitably survive. This book, accordingly, considers the compelling issue of the circumstances that sustain political diversity, even in politically high stimulus environments where individuals are attentive to politics and the frequency of communication among citizens is correspondingly high. © Robert Huckfeldt, Paul E. Johnson, John Sprague 2004 and Cambridge University Press, 2010.
Article
The media environment is changing. Today in the United States, the average viewer can choose from hundreds of channels, including several twenty-four hour news channels. News is on cell phones, on iPods, and online; it has become a ubiquitous and unavoidable reality in modern society. The purpose of this book is to examine systematically, how these differences in access and form of media affect political behaviour. Using experiments and new survey data, it shows how changes in the media environment reverberate through the political system, affecting news exposure, political learning, turnout, and voting behavior.
Chapter
This chapter analyzes the political messages received by voters from personal discussants and the mass media, in long-established democracies as well as new democracies, in twelve different countries. It starts by addressing citizen exposure to political information from spouses, other personal discussants, newspapers, and television. It takes into account voter perceptions of the partisanship of the political messages they receive from each intermediary or the partisan bias of the information. It also examines how the voters' partisanship is related to the information they seek and receive. The chapter concludes that replication of the analysis on other election surveys should be done in the next stage of CNEP.
Article
We use national survey data to examine the extent to which various sources of political information expose people to dissimilar political views. We hypothesize that the individual's ability and desire to exercise selective exposure is a key factor in determining whether a given source produces exposure to dissimilar views. Although a lack of diverse perspectives is a common complaint against American news media, we find that individuals are exposed to far more dissimilar political views via news media than through interpersonal political discussants. The media advantage is rooted in the relative difficulty of selectively exposing oneself to those sources of information, as well as the lesser desire to do so, given the impersonal nature of mass media.
Article
Am 27. September 1998, 18 Uhr, stand fest: Erstmals in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik Deutschland hatten die Wähler eine Regierung von den weichen Regierungsbänken auf die harten Oppositionsbänke verbannt. Damit hatten sich die im Vorfeld der Wahl veröffentlichten Prognosen der Meinungsforschungsinstitute bewahrheitet. Trotzdem dürften SPD-Politikern und -Anhängern Steine vom Herzen gefallen sein, als sie am Wahlabend endlich Gewißheit hatten, gab es doch in der heißen Phase des Wahlkampfs durchaus noch Anzeichen, die einen SPD-Sieg keineswegs gesichert erschienen ließen. Hier spielte vor allem die Landtagswahl in Bayern am 13. September 1999, also nur zwei Wochen vor der Bundestagswahl, eine große Rolle, nach der die Union im Aufwind schien. Ministerpräsident Stoiber sprach von einer „Steilvorlage“ für Bonn, auch Bundeskanzler Kohl erhoffte sich „neuen Schub“. Die SPD interpretierte das Ergebnis zwar als reine Landtagswahl, was allerdings der Interpretation der CDU entgegenstand, die auf das hohe Engagement des SPD-Kanzlerkandidaten Schröder im bayerischen Landtagswahlkampf hinwies und die Wahlniederlage der SPD entsprechend als Votum gegen deren Kandidaten auslegte.
Article
Why do people living in different areas vote in different ways? Why does this change over time? How do people talk about politics with friends and neighbours, and with what effect? Does the geography of well-being influence the geography of party support? Do parties try to talk to all voters at election time, or are they interested only in the views of a small number of voters living in a small number of seats? Is electoral participation in decline, and how does the geography of the vote affect this? How can a party win a majority of seats in Parliament without a majority of votes in the country? This book explores these questions by placing the analysis of electoral behaviour into its geographical context. Using information from the latest elections, including the 2005 General Election, the book shows how both voters and parties are affected by, and seek to influence, both national and local forces. Trends are set in the context of the latest research and scholarship on electoral behaviour. The book also reports on new research findings.
Article
This paper examines the distinction made by Huckfeldt (1979, 1986) and Giles and Dantico (1982) between individually and socially based forms of participation as affected by social environment. Using survey responses from the 1984 South Bend study, the relationship between political discussion partners is explicitly modeled and estimated for several forms of individually and socially based participatory acts. The evidence indicates that certain types of both individually based and socially based participation are affected by those in the immediate social environment, suggesting that a modification of this distinction is in order.
Article
Television journalism can produce significant changes in opinions about basic American institutions and may also foster political malaise. Laboratory investigation revealed that the CBS documentary, “The Selling of the Pentagon,” convinced viewers that the military participated more in national politics and misled the public more about Vietnam than these viewers had previously believed. The program also caused a significant decrease in political efficacy among all our groups. This finding led to correlational research to determine if exposure to television news is also associated with lower levels of efficacy. SRC survey data suggest that reliance upon television news programs is associated with feelings of inefficacy and political self-doubt. These data also indicate that reliance upon television news fosters political cynicism and distrust, political instability, and frustration with civil rights. Holding constant the level of education or income of these respondents does not appreciably alter these relationships. In short, the two sets of data imply that the networks helped to create Scammon's Social Issue and that video journalism fostered public support for George Wallace.
Article
Although the role of political parties in structuring vote choice has become considerably weaker in the last 30 years, we find that parties continue to be active organizations and contact one-fifth to one-quarter of the electorate, an activity that has important consequences. Specifically, when contacted by the parties, individuals have a greater propensity to vote and to engage in other political activities. We also find that each of the two major parties has the capability of mobilizing the electorate even when it is not the incumbent party. Even when placed alongside a plethora of control variables, these findings hold up. We conclude that citizen contacting is a method by which party organizations effectively reduce the transaction costs associated with political participation and that it is an important and largely neglected element in most analyses of political behavior.
Chapter
This chapter discusses the stability and viability of the new democracies that emerged during the 'third-wave' of democratization and the role that mass media played. It tries to find evidence that the media influenced the emergence of a political culture that supported the new democracies in various stages. It presents the media policy in the third-wave democracies, including the design of the study which, in turn, includes the orientations toward political systems, media dependency and selection of countries, and patterns and backgrounds of media exposure. The chapter concludes by answering four key questions: (1) Does the media matter?; (2) Is the media gravediggers or seedsmen of democracy?; (3) Does the medium matter?; and (4) Does the context matter?.
Book
Voting is a habit. People learn the habit of voting, or not, based on experience in their first few elections. Elections that do not stimulate high turnout among young adults leave a ‘footprint’ of low turnout in the age structure of the electorate as many individuals who were new at those elections fail to vote at subsequent elections. Elections that stimulate high turnout leave a high turnout footprint. So a country's turnout history provides a baseline for current turnout that is largely set, except for young adults. This baseline shifts as older generations leave the electorate and as changes in political and institutional circumstances affect the turnout of new generations. Among the changes that have affected turnout in recent years, the lowering of the voting age in most established democracies has been particularly important in creating a low turnout footprint that has grown with each election.
Article
This chapter tackles the role of information on electoral behaviour by examining whether the informational biases to which voters are exposed during electoral campaigns end up influencing their voting choices. The second part of the chapter inspects the intermediation process and determines whether and why some types of intermediaries are more influential than others. The features that maximize informational bias include interpersonal communication, high levels of politicization, one-sided messages and credibility. Lastly, the chapter looks into the specific case of mass-media outlets using alternative measures of media bias, and he analyzes whether the degree to which media landscapes are dominated by partisan outlets makes a difference regarding the extent to which exposure to the media influences voting choices.
Article
The concept of `videomalaise' was first used in America in the 1970s to describe the dual phenomenon of a loss of trust in political institutions and individuals' increasing reliance on television as a means of obtaining political information. Could it be that the particular features of political programming caused political malaise? Using West German survey data, the research presented here tests the validity of the videomalaise thesis. No connection was found between political malaise and the contents of political programming which leads to the conclusion that the videomalaise thesis is unwarranted. Instead, political alienation and low participation are related to the use made of entertainment content in both television and the press.
Article
Voter participation is viewed as a collective action problem overcome chiefly by means of “solidary” and “purposive” selective incentives in the contemporary United States rather than by material incentives. It is argued that these incentives are primarily in the form of civic or societal norms rather than special interest norms associated with partisan or group loyalties as in Uhlaner's (1986) model. The emphasis on civic norms is supported by positive correlations between turnout and other socially cooperative behaviors such as responding to the census, participating in parent-teacher associations, and giving to charities. Data on interpersonal pressures to vote are found to support the hypothesis that “enforcement” of voting norms via social sanctions significantly enhances turnout. The American turnout decline is interpreted in terms of a weakening of social ties adversely affecting the socialization and enforcement of norms responsible for generating civic participation.
Article
This article investigates the claim that individual political participation is affected by the tendency of politically significant others to participate, particularly if that other is a spouse. Models of reported turnout, validated turnout, and campaign activity are developed that explicitly model the relationship between pairs of political discussants. These models are estimated using a unique data set collected in South Bend, Indiana during the 1984 presidential election that includes direct information for both respondents and individuals named as political discussants. The results show that the likelihood of participation increases as discussants become more likely to participate. Spouses are found to be particularly important types of discussants in the case of turnout, but not when campaign activity is the measure of participation.