No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
The potential effect of climate change on the Scottish tourist industry
Abstract
Climate changes currently taking place have impacted upon the pattern of visitor activity and threatened the financial viability of tourism-related enterprises. Previous attempts to evaluate the effects of climate change have been based upon a relatively coarse spatial resolution of climatic variation, which cannot readily be related to the more localised aspects of tourist activity. By combining simple spatial climate models with digital topographic data in a Geographical Information System, more detailed maps of spatial patterns of potential changes in the Scottish climate have been produced which have been related to particular aspects of tourism, such as winter skiing. In Scotland, the indications are that winters are becoming milder and summers drier. Predictions of changes in winter snow cover and summer dryness have been based upon historical analogues. Although lowland areas may experience less frequent snow cover, changes may be relatively less signficant on the highest ground above 1000 m. Upland areas may also see the greatest reduction in dull and damp ‘dreich’ summer days. It is possible that Scottish tourism may reap some localised benefits from ongoing climate changes.
... Specifically, with regards to the association between environmental factors and tourism, much of the literature tends to focus on the impact of tourism on the environment (see, e.g., Al-Mulali et al., 2015;Gössling, 2002;Katircioglu, 2014;Paramati et al., 2017aParamati et al., , 2017bTabatchnaia-Tamirisa et al., 1997). Although a growing body of literature examines the effects of environmental factors on tourism, most of these studies focus on the impact of climate change with emphasis on shifts in seasonal temperature averages and other dimensions of climate change (see, e.g., Agnew and Viner, 2001;Harrison et al., 1999;Sajjad et al., 2014). Further, these studies are limited in scope as they tend to focus on single countries or specific geographic areas (Ceron and Dubois, 2005;Harrison et al., 1999;Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie, 2006). ...
... Although a growing body of literature examines the effects of environmental factors on tourism, most of these studies focus on the impact of climate change with emphasis on shifts in seasonal temperature averages and other dimensions of climate change (see, e.g., Agnew and Viner, 2001;Harrison et al., 1999;Sajjad et al., 2014). Further, these studies are limited in scope as they tend to focus on single countries or specific geographic areas (Ceron and Dubois, 2005;Harrison et al., 1999;Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie, 2006). ...
... The closest in the literature to ours are those studies that examine the effects of a wide range of environmental factors on tourism (see, e.g., Agnew and Viner, 2001;Ceron and Dubois, 2005;Harrison et al., 1999;Sajjad et al., 2014;Yeoman and McMahon-Beattie, 2006). We differ from these studies given the scope of our study. ...
Theoretically, it is well argued that environmental factors affect the growth of the tourism industry; however, from an empirical perspective, some gaps still exist in the literature. We empirically examine the effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) and particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions on tourist arrivals in a panel of G20 countries. Using annual data from 1995 to 2014 and a series of panel data models, our results suggest that the growth of both CO2 and PM2.5 emissions adversely affects international tourist arrivals. The results also show that the observed effect of CO2 emissions is more pronounced in developed economies, while the effect of PM2.5 emissions is stronger for developing economies. Given these findings, our study provides and discusses a number of policy and practical implications.
... According to the various means and techniques through which climate affects tourism, studies on climate change and tourism divided into three categories: a. Assessing the effects of climate change on the physical conditions required for tourism, according to this trend, the change in the depth of snow cover is a direct result of climate change, and the financial viability of winter tourism thus depends on favorable snow conditions. These studies are based on an evaluation of the material conditions that enable tourism in these areas for a specific activity, which is the provision of tourism services to a specific market segment (Koenig and Abegg, 1997;Harrison et al., 1999;Elsasser and Messrli, 2001;Scott et al., 2001) b. Using climate indicators to compare the attractiveness of tourist destinations under different scenarios of climate change, this trend has been implemented in a number of studies, such as (Rotmans et al., 1994;Moreno and Amelung, 2009;Amelung et al., 2007;Scott et al, 2004, Amelung andViner, 2006) c. ...
... However, it agrees with (Seetanah and Fauzel, 2018), who argue that high temperatures can benefit the tourism industry by extending the warm season. This disparity can be explained by the fact that most studies on the impact of temperature and rain on winter tourism, particularly in Europe (Koenig and Abegg, 1997;Harrison et al. 1999), predict that rising temperatures will have a negative impact on the ice and thus on the tourism industry. As a result of rising temperatures, some countries, particularly those in the Mediterranean, including Egypt, will benefit. ...
The tourism industry is one of the most important sectors that contributes to global growth. Climate change can have a significant impact on tourism since it requires appropriate weather conditions and a clean environment. Given the close relationship between climate change and tourism, the current study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on international tourism in Egypt from 1990 to 2020. This study aims to supplement the literature on tourism and environmental quality. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model used in this study to investigate both short and long-run estimates at the same time. Climate change was measured using changes in precipitation, carbon dioxide emissions, and temperature, with gross capital formation (% of GDP) and arable land (% of land area) serving as control variables. The results show that two climate variables (precipitation rate and temperature) have a positive impact but are not significant in the short and long run-on international tourism revenue. Furthermore, carbon dioxide emissions have a long-term negative impact on international tourism revenues.
... There are a number of recent papers that provide useful summaries of the research on climate change in tourism (Pang, McKercher, and Prideaux 2013;Gössling et al. 2012;Weaver 2011;Scott 2011;Scott and Becken 2010;Hall et al. 2014). Tourist destinations can be significantly affected by climate change impacts, as has been anticipated in numerous studies covering skiing tourism (Bicknell and McManus 2006;Scott et al. 2006;Pickering 2011) and other types of tourism (Harrison, Winterbottom, and Sheppard 1999;Rebetez 2011;Amelung, Nicholls, and Viner 2007;Hein, Metzger, and Moreno 2009;Moore 2010). These impacts will be particularly noticeable in beach erosion, changing climate conditions, landscape changes, biodiversity loss, and higher risks of tropical illnesses. ...
... These impacts will be particularly noticeable in beach erosion, changing climate conditions, landscape changes, biodiversity loss, and higher risks of tropical illnesses. Potential impacts on environmental assets and tourism demand have been identified by many studies, among others, by Giles andPerry (1998), Harrison, Winterbottom, andSheppard (1999), Wall (1998), Agnew andViner (2001), De Freitas (2005), Hamilton (2004), Lise and Tol (2002), Maddison (2001), and Scott, Jones, and Konopek (2007) . A general result is that there is a need for anticipatory action in order to counterbalance the potential impacts of climate change in tourist destinations (Higham and Cohen 2011;Perry 2005Perry , 2006Scott & McBoyle 2007;Jopp, DeLacy, and Mair 2010). ...
Climate change policies may compete for scarce economic resources with other alternative policies that might also be needed in tourist destinations. This article studies the economic valuation of tourists of a “carbon neutral” destination policy in the Canary Islands, under the context of joint valuation with potential alternative tourism policies, taking into account the impact of emotions and knowledge. Results show that the economic value assigned by tourists for this policy increases when other competing policy alternatives are jointly evaluated. In addition, the amount of knowledge on the causes and consequences of climate change positively influences the economic value the tourists give to the carbon-neutral policy. Negative emotions such as fear, anger, and sadness also raise the economic value assigned by tourists. The results have implications for the design of tourism policies and the study of the economic value of tourism policies.
... In addition to policymakers, academic researchers have highlighted the impact of climate change on the tourism sector and the latter's vulnerability through numerous published studies. The sector's vulnerability has been examined across various dimensions, including exposure [36,107,108], sensitivity [109][110][111][112][113], and adaptation [95,114], as well as through analyses of combined vulnerability dimensions [35,90,[115][116][117][118]. Quantitative research exploring the relationship between climate and tourism has investigated various destination types, including urban areas [119,120], beach resorts [18,[121][122][123], climate indices for tourism [124]; Development Assistance Research Associates [90,125], winter sports destinations [12,28,89,90,[126][127][128], and rural tourism [129]. ...
... This composite index integrates various climate variables deemed pertinent to capture the climate preferences of tourists. Several studies have used this index to capture the climate suitability of tourism destinations (Harrison et al 1999, Amelung et al 2007, Hein 2007, Goh et al 2008, Moore 2010, Goh 2012. The index comprises four sub-indices, encompassing daily thermal comfort, precipitation, hours of sunshine, and wind speed, ...
The European tourism industry, a significant contributor to employment and income, is under threat due to climate change. This study, using data from 1315 European regions and considering a tourism-specific climate index and tourism typologies, examines the potential impact of climate change on tourism demand across the continent under four warming scenarios. We find that climate change impacts in Europe will be highly asymmetrical across regions and seasons, resulting in significant reallocations of tourism demand in space and time across all warming scenarios. A clear north-south pattern in tourism demand changes emerges, with northern regions benefiting and southern regions experiencing significant reductions, particularly under higher warming. Summer demand and coastal areas, where tourism demand is more concentrated, will be particularly affected. We also quantify the deseasonalising efforts necessary to maintain the status quo in the annual demand for tourism, involving relative reductions in summer demand and increases in shoulder and winter seasons.
... Limited academic work has been conducted into the UK ski industry generally, and specifically its relationship to climate change. The Scottish ski industry has, however, been the subject of several studies (Harrison et al., 1999;Harrison et al., 2001a;Harrison et al., 2001b;Hopkins & Maclean, 2014). Most recently, Hopkins and Maclean (2014) demonstrated that despite local weather variability being perceived to be a substantial and unmanageable risk to the Scottish ski industry and trends of reduced snow reliability, such issues were not believed to be tied to anthropogenic climate change by Scottish ski industry stakeholders. ...
Previous work identified Northern Swedish skiing as a beneficiary from worsening climate change, with its relative improvement in snow reliability increasing its attractiveness over areas of the European Alps. This study advances the supply-side discussion of Northern Sweden as a ‘last resort’ with demand-side insights. It examines whether Europe’s major outbound ski market would adapt its destination choice due to climate change impacts on European skiing. A survey of 296 skiers was administered through the Ski Club of Great Britain. British ski tourists held negative perceptions of the price, accessibility, and quality/variety
of ski terrain in Sweden. These concerns improved amongst those who had visited Sweden to ski, demonstrating familiarity with Swedish skiing may overcome barriers to substituting away from the European Alps. British ski tourists ranked snow conditions as the most important factor in their destination choice, thus snow reliability should form the basis of Swedish destination image moving forward. The majority of respondents (76%) opted for spatial substitution under poor snow conditions, ranking Sweden as the fifth most popular substitution destination, after four major Alpine ski nations, indicating that until climate reliable locations in the European Alps are exhausted, Sweden may not benefit substantially from climate change adaptation.
... One such destination is the Mediterranean, which has become the world's most popular tourist destination because of its suitable climate for sea-sand-sun tourism. The other is weather-sensitive tourism, in which specific activities based on climate conditions are offered, such as ski tourism in the Alps (Harrison et al. 1999;Giles and Perry 1998). Tourists make their final decision with an expectation of certain climate conditions. ...
This paper aims to assess the impacts of climatic shifts caused by climate change on tourism destinations and provide a strategic roadmap to manage tourism development and investments in Turkiye. To assess the climate change impacts on the tourism sector, we focus on spatial variations in climate change, model the changing suitability of climatic conditions on tourism activities in different regions of Turkiye and estimate future climate conditions by considering climate scenarios. The “Tourism Climate Index” (TCI) is adopted to compare the suitability of the climate for tourism activities during the base years (1963–2017) and the projected years (2040–2069). In applying current and estimated climatic data, the case study destinations are assembled into three groups based on magnitude and direction of change, namely, alarming, moderate, and advantageous destinations. To provide a strategic roadmap, a matrix is developed regarding the number of international tourists, the number of accommodation facilities, tourism type and TCI results. As a result, nine zones are defined to represent the risks and potentials of the destinations, their priority levels in future tourism development are determined, and recommendations for each zone are formulated. İstanbul and Antalya excel with their high demand, advanced infrastructure and potential for an extended tourism season, while Nevşehir, Ankara, and Konya stand out as alternative destinations. On the other hand, İzmir and Muğla stand out with their high risk and high demand. The significance of this study lies in adaptions of climatic shifts to a tourism development roadmap. The results are critical for formulation of strategic tourism development plans from the local to the national levels for sustaining viability of the tourism market.
... With various economic multipliers included, the projected losses approached 30 per cent (or roughly 1.5 per cent of Austrian GDP). Harrison et al. (1999) examined the trend in ski season length at the Cairngorm ski area in Scotland from 1972 to 1996. The ski season was getting shorter on average, but the highest elevation ski lift (1060-1150 masl) indicated no change. ...
... The question arises whether climate change will affect flow in the snow-affected catchments in Scotland. Changes in snow cover below the 600m elevation have occurred in conjunction with increases in precipitation between October and March, a marked spring warming, and a more frequent occurrence of heavy daily rainfalls and strong winds (Harrison et al., 1999). In the UK, flow changes in small catchments heavily affected by declining snow cover are likely to involve increases in winter flow due to winter snowmelt and decreases in spring flow (Harrison et al., 2001). ...
The aim of this study was to better understand the likely impacts of climate change (amount, frequency, and distribution of precipitation) on Private Water Supplies (PWS) in Scotland. In particular, the consequences on PWS resilience to water shortages in order to assess changes in vulnerability due to reduced quantity of water as a result of climate change.
... Différents rapports, dont certains basés sur des modélisations parfois partielles ont tenter de comprendre l'implication du changement climatique sur le tourisme. Dès les années 1990, le changement climatique était étudié comme menace pour le secteur touristique par de nombreux auteurs (voir : Braun et al., 1999Braun et al., , 1999Harrison et al., 1999;Smith, 1990;Wall, 1998 (Agnew & Palutikof, 2006;Rosselló-Nadal et al., 2011;Scott & Lemieux, 2010). ...
After being perceived negatively by the inhabitants of mountain areas, glaciers have been promoted as a tourist attraction for over two centuries. The first visits to the Arveyron Arch (Chamonix) in the 18th century were followed by cog railways and cable cars that allow access to the largest glaciers in the Alps and in the world in just a few dozen minutes. Thus, glacier tourism today includes practices and touristic sites that are emblematic of certain mountain territories. However, rising temperatures and the extremely rapid glacier retreat also make these glacier sites markers of climate change. The Mer de Glace in France, the Rhone glacier in Switzerland and the Pasterze glacier in Austria are among the major glacier tourist sites that are experiencing the full force of landscape changes linked to the retreat of the cryosphere. What do these changes imply for the operators of these glacier tourism sites? And for their visitors? Using mixed methodologies, this PhD thesis attempts to answer these two questions for six major Alpine glacier tourism sites. In essence, the results show that glacial tourism sites are largely impacted by climate change and the glaciological and geomorphological changes it brings to mountain territories. These impacts lead to difficulties in site management, itinerary issues, difficulties in carrying out certain activities which may become more dangerous, or a decrease in the attractiveness of the sites through less attractive glacial activities or through a "landscape degradation" feared by the site managers. However, our results with visitors to the sites show that this "degradation" of the landscape does not drastically reduce visitors' satisfaction with the glacial landscape: the negative judgements are limited to glaciers or paraglacial forms, but only slightly affect visitors' general appreciation of the landscape. At the same time, a new form of tourism - last chance tourism - is developing around glaciers and shows that they are now considered as "endangered species". Furthermore, the site managers in question are implementing strategies for adapting to climate change that are mainly reactive and which raise the question of their long-term sustainability. This question is even more important as glacier modelling for the year 2050 suggests that current adaptations will not be sufficient.
... Différents rapports, dont certains basés sur des modélisations parfois partielles ont tenter de comprendre l'implication du changement climatique sur le tourisme. Dès les années 1990, le changement climatique était étudié comme menace pour le secteur touristique par de nombreux auteurs (voir : Braun et al., 1999Braun et al., , 1999Harrison et al., 1999;Smith, 1990;Wall, 1998 (Agnew & Palutikof, 2006;Rosselló-Nadal et al., 2011;Scott & Lemieux, 2010). ...
Depuis la mise en tourisme des « glacières » de Chamonix en 1741, les paysages glaciaires contribuent fortement à l’attractivité des territoires alpins, et donc à leur économie. Le recul généralisé des glaciers lié au changement climatique en cours engendre de profonds changements paysagers qui impactent de nombreux sites touristiques de l’arc alpin. Le travail doctoral proposé sur l’avenir des activités touristiques liées aux paysages englacés, novateur et pluridisciplinaire, s’empare d’une question sensible pour les acteurs du tourisme et de l’aménagement en montagne. Il se propose d’y répondre : 1.en établissant une typologie des sites touristiques en contexte glaciaire, qui intègre sur la longue durée leur développement et la dynamique des glaciers correspondants, 2.en étudiant l’évolution interannuelle de leur fréquentation depuis les années 1980, caractérisées par la dernière avancée glaciaire alpine, 3.en explicitant les représentations et attentes du public au moyen d’enquêtes accompagnées d’une approche photographique, 4.en proposant une approche méthodologique applicable à plusieurs échéances à partir d’une analyse critique des aménagements passés et actuels. L’étude sera prioritairement conduite à l’échelle des Alpes occidentales, éventuellement étendue aux Alpes centrales et orientales, afin de permettre une dimension comparative. Les résultats enrichiront les connaissances actuelles sur les conséquences économiques du changement climatique en montagne. Ils contribueront à fonder les prises de décisions des gestionnaires d’infrastructures (refuges, téléphériques, buvettes) et des décideurs locaux (communes, communautés de communes, syndicats) et régionaux quant à l’évolution des produits touristiques proposés en contexte glaciaire.
... Climate conditions are considered a motivator for travel, an image and asset of a destination, and a determinant of tourism activities (Day et al., 2013) in tourism discourse. In other words, climate is part of the attraction of a destination and has a significant impact on a destination's image and tourist satisfaction (Smith, 1993;Giles and Perry, 1998;Harrison et al., 1999;Rossello-Nadal, 2014). The literature is accordingly clear that climate change will inevitably affect tourism demand trends, the pattern of tourism flow, destination choice, travel period, length of visitation, and activities undertaken and indirectly influence the socio-economic structure of destinations as well as investments in and the costs of the tourism industry (Scott, 2003;Hamilton and Lau, 2005;Hamilton and Tol, 2007;Scott & Lemieux, 2010;Michailidou et al., 2016;Scott and Gössling, 2018;Tervo-Kankare et al., 2018). ...
Abstarct
This study focuses on quantifying the impacts of climate change on international tourism in Turkey through the estimation of the future number of international tourists for different tourism destinations. For this purpose, 30 tourism destinations were selected from different regions in Turkey offering different kinds of tourism attributes and climatic conditions. Future tourism demand was estimated based on comfort level change, a major determinant of tourist preference, and evaluated through the Tourism Climate Index. Changes in climate comfort levels between a base period (1963–2017), a projected medium term period representing the 2050s (2040–2069), and a projected long term period representing the 2080s (2070–2099) were correlated with the number of international tourists using a regression model developed by Hein et al. (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,1:170–178, 2009). The results of this study project extreme drops in demand, seasonal shifts, and the emergence of new alternative destinations. The study is significant as the first quantitative evaluation of climate change impacts on tourism demand in Turkey through a comparison of the spatial exposures of destinations. The results will help lead the way to a national tourism development roadmap in Turkey through the revelation of regional risks and opportunities and will serve as a benchmarking study for tourism destinations that have similar climate conditions and tourism patterns.
... It can be said that the popular tourism destinations have their popularity due to their pleasant climate (Amelung et al., 2007). On the other hand, he defines some tourism activities as "weather-sensitive" which means the necessity of certain weather conditions for specific tourism activities such as ski tourism (Giles and Perry, 1998;Harrison et al., 1999). These kinds of tourism are highly sensitive because the only condition of activity is a certain climate condition. ...
Tourism has 10.4% contribution to global GDP and 10% to global employment that makes it one of the most critical economic sectors. The tourist motivation, destination choices and travel time decisions are the most questioned issues in tourism literature while climate change may change those dynamics. Climate is one of the factors in
travel timing, type of tourism activities, destination and length of stay. Climatic attributes are especially important on climate sensitive and climate dependent tourism activities that require specific climate conditions. For example, winter tourism requires specific snow cover and weather conditions for sports tourism, trekking, hiking or
climbing are preferred under specific climate conditions that ensures safety. The changing climate is expected to have inevitable social, economic and environmental
consequences which the tourism sector itself will also face. Climate change and
tourism have two-sided interaction; tourism activities especially transportation
demand generate a great amount of greenhouse gas emission, on the other hand,
tourism activities are highly sensitive to climate change impacts. Climate change will
cause warmer temperatures, extreme weather events and precipitation change. The first
impact, temperature increase, is expected to affect today’s popular destinations that
are attractive for their pleasant weather. Due to the increased temperatures those
regions are projected to be too hot for tourism activities, have poor climate conditions
and low comfort levels, consequently lose their attractive feature or the peak season of
tourism may shift from summer season to fall and spring. On the other hand, northern
regions are expected to have moderate and warm weather conditions that are suitable
for tourism activities. This situation may create new popular destinations in the global
market. The precipitation is less likely preferred by tourists during their visitation. The
sudden, unexpected and strong variations on precipitation generates uncertainty and
affects the tourist preferences. Extreme weather event is a threat to tourism
destinations due to the safety and security concerns.
Climate change will also have negative impacts on tourism industry such as loss of
resources, biodiversity, less snow cover, sea level rise. The natural heritage, beaches
and environmental assets are the important components of destination attributes that
contribute to attractiveness and competitiveness. The loss of these attributes is
expected to influence the preferences of tourists. The changing pattern of tourism flow
and impacts on local tourism markets inevitably generate socio-economic problems in
those tourism dependent countries such as unemployment, decreased income and
poverty. Therefore, investigating climate change impacts on tourism gains great
importance to adapt the climate change, eliminate the risks and benefit the potentials.
Today, Turkey is one of the most popular tourism destinations in the world. Turkey
has climatic, natural and environmental attractions that successfully have been valued
in the tourism sector and achieved to be recognized in the global market.
Turkey is vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location in the
Mediterranean region. Climate change projections on Turkey deduce 2-60C increase
in temperatures especially in the summer period, 20% decrease in precipitation, and a
longer warm period. According to researches, climate change will have adverse
impacts on tourism sector, the popularity of the country as a tourism destination will
diminish due to sea level rise, extreme weather events, the extreme hot waves, and loss
of biodiversity and natural values. Both summer and winter tourism will be affected
by these changes. The national strategic climate change plans mention the climate
change impacts on tourism sector. There are also some studies focusing of specific
destinations or tourism types and investigating climate change impacts on these areas
and activities. Although the awareness of vulnerability of tourism sector to climate
change has increased, there has no constructive step taken yet at national, local or
academic level. A comprehensive perspective is missing in policy and strategy papers
and literature. The impacts of climate change should be defined for each region, risks
should be revealed and development strategies should be developed to eliminate the
risks, mitigate the impacts and adapt to the changing conditions.
From this point of view, this study mainly focused on: (i) “What are the impacts of
climate change on tourism sector in Turkey in terms of regional challenges,
international demand and socio-economic dynamics?” (ii) “How should be the
roadmap of the sectoral development to manage climate change challenges; eliminate
risks and benefit opportunities without jeopardizing the socio-economic structure?”
The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate change on
international tourism in popular tourism destinations in Turkey and provide a strategic
roadmap. The objectives of the study are; (i) evaluating physical impacts of climate
change in terms of changing comfort levels on popular tourism destinations in Turkey,
(ii) investigating the reflections of these impacts on number of tourists, income and
employment,(iii) revealing the different exposures to climate change by comparing
different tourism destinations that have different climatic, geographic conditions as
well as offer different tourism attractions and tourism types in Turkey, (iv) determining
the most vulnerable tourism regions to climate change impacts, (v) addressing high
risk regions (vi) highlighting opportunities that can be turned into benefit of
destination’s tourism industry, (vii) providing a tentative strategic framework for
climate change responsive tourism development.
In order to achieve this purpose, 30 tourism destinations in Turkey are included in the
case study. While determining the case study cities, the number of tourists they host,
their role in the Tourism Strategy Plan, tourism activities and geographic locations are
taken into consideration. From different geographical regions, with different climatic
character, having different tourism activities and attractiveness, 30 cities were
selected. In order to evaluate the physical impacts of climate change on climate
comfort levels, Tourism Climate Index (TCI) is used. The results of TCI analysis were
used to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on international tourism
demand. The model developed by Hein et al. (2009) which assumes the climate as the
only variable changing over time and the rest constant is used. The comparison
between base year (1963-2017) and projected year (2019-2100) is revealed in terms of
both climate comfort levels and the number of tourist/tourism demand. Finally, the
socio-economic impacts of changing demand are evaluated by adapting Input-Output
Analysis for national assessment and Ryan Short Cut Model for regional assessment.
The results of the study reveal that the climate comfort levels are expected to decrease
in the future up to 2100 comparing with today’s climate conditions especially in
summer period. On the other hand, comfort levels are projected to increase in winter
period. Moreover, the impacts are different for each geographic region. There are
highly vulnerable cities especially in coast line, and there are more resilient cities
mostly located inland. Relationally, the demand in summer period is expected to
decrease while the demand in winter is expected to increase. The coastal region is
expected to be impacted negatively while inner Anatolia impacted slightly positive or
neutral. Moreover, the seasonal shift is the most important outcome of the changing
climate. The coastal tourism-dependent cities will be the most vulnerable areas under
new climatic conditions. The socio-economic impacts of changing climatic conditions
will be more intense for those tourism-dependent cities. The results reveal the regional
opportunities for tourism investments and alternative tourism development. They also
address the vulnerabilities and risks that can be managed through adaptation and
mitigation strategies.
Regarding these projected consequences, a proposal for climate change responsive
tourism development plan is provided at the end of the study. This study highlights the
climate change and tourism interaction, the impacts of climate change on Turkey’s
tourism industry from a comprehensive, comparative and multi-dimensional
perspective and provides a roadmap to manage climate change impacts by revealing
the regional potentials and vulnerabilities.
... Winter tourism, one of the sectors of tourism, suffered from projected climate conditions. Ski industries saw a decrease in natural snowfall and a subsequent reduction in season length, which was attributed to climatic changes in Canada (Scott et al. 2003), Scotland (Harrison et al. 1999), and the European Alps (Elsasser and Messerli 2001). Similarly, due to climate change, extreme events are projected to impact small islands and low-lying areas. ...
Disaster and climate change have impacted tourism around the world. Tourist areas are often hit by extreme events, and respective damages severely affect regions and their economies. Disasters, directly or indirectly, affect the number of tourists visited, the hotel industry, revenue generation, employment, and an overall economy of a region. The paper reviews the literature on disasters and the tourism industry. This review paper follows the PRISMA guidelines and statements on the systematic review using "tourism and disasters" keywords. The study aims to ascertain common research themes in the domain of tourism and disasters. Results have revealed that economy, environment, emergency management and response, community-based participation, post-disaster tourism recovery, psychological behavior of people, nature-based tourism, dark tourism, and transportation are the key thematic areas. The findings of the study can help consolidate the research to effectively help future research and relevant stakeholders to work out disaster mitigation measures and improve the preparedness of the tourism industry.
... In the subsequent 'growth phase' additional studies were completed in these four countries (e.g. K€ onig, 1999;Scott, McBoyle, & Mills, 2003;Scott, McBoyle, Minogue, & Mills, 2006) as well as new major ski markets like Austria (Breiling & Charamza, 1999), Japan (Fukushima, Kureha, Ozaki, Fujimori, & Harasawa, 2002), and Sweden (Moen & Fredman, 2007), as well as small markets like Scotland (Harrison, Winterbottom, & Sheppard, 1999). In the 'diversification phase' the literature grew tremendously and studies became more diversified methodologically, but also geographically (e.g. ...
Climate change risk has gained considerable attention within the ski industry and its investors. Several past studies have overlooked the adaptive capacity of snowmaking and within-season demand variation and therefore overestimated climate change impacts. This study of the Austrian ski market (208 ski areas) including snow-making found impacts are substantial and spatially highly differentiated, but nonetheless manageable (season length losses of 10-16%) for the majority of ski areas until the 2050s under a high emissions pathway (RCP 8.5) or even the 2080s in a low emission pathway (RCP 4.5). The economic impacts of reduced operations are largely concentrated in regions less dependent on tourism. Preserving this sector in high-risk areas can be considered maladaptive, but may be important to maintain demand. A sustainable end-of-century future for a high proportion of Austria's ski areas is dependent on achieving the low-emission future set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.
... Austria (Breiling et al., 1997), Scotland (Harrison et al., 1999) and Switzerland (König and Abegg, 1997) all project negative consequences for the industry and associated businesses, including shortened operating seasons. In North America, Lamothe and Periard (1988) and McBoyle and Wall (1992), using the climate change scenarios of the period, estimated that the lower Laurentian Mountains in Quebec would experience a 34 to 49% and 42 to 87% reduction in ski seasons, respectively. ...
... Some studies model snow cover days near ski areas (e.g. Galloway, 1988;Harrison, Winterbottom, & Johnson, 2005;Harrison, Winterbottom, & Sheppard, 1999;McBoyle et al., 1986;Sauter, Weitzenkamp, & Schneider, 2009). Although snow cover is defined differently (e.g. 1, 2.5, 5, or 10 cm of snow), none are suitable indicators for ski operations that require a snow depth of 30-75 cm (Witmer, 1986, and widespread consultations by the authors with ski area operators). ...
Ski tourism is a multi-billion dollar international market attracting between 300 and 350 million annual skier visits. With its strong reliance on specific climatic conditions, the ski industry is regarded as the tourism market most directly and immediately affected by climate change. A critical review of the 119 publications that have examined the climate change risk of ski tourism in 27 countries is provided. This growing and increasingly diverse literature has projected decreased reliability of slopes dependent on natural snow, increased snowmaking requirements, shortened and more variable ski seasons, a contraction in the number of operating ski areas, altered competitiveness among and within regional ski markets, and attendant implications for ski tourism employment and values of vacation property real estate values. The extent and timing of these consequences depend on the rate of climate change and the types of adaptive responses by skiers as well as ski tourism destinations and their competitors. The need to understanding differential climate risk grows as investors and financial regulators increasingly require climate risk disclosure at the destination and company scale. Key knowledge gaps to better assist ski tourism destinations to adapt to future climate risk are identified.
... (2) The impact of climate change on tourism and adaptation options. The implications of climate change on tourism have been examined since 1990 (Smith, 1993) and since then many scholars have devoted themselves to this issue (Giles & Perry, 1998;Harrison, Winterbottom, & Sheppard, 1999;Nicholls & Hoozemans, 1996;Pendleton & Mendelsohn, 1998). In the twenty-first century, more and more studies related to the impacts of climate change on tourism have been carried out, which has resulted in the broadening of the scope of this field. ...
The interaction between climate change and tourism has been one of the most critical and dynamic research areas in the field of sustainable tourism in recent years. In this paper, a scientometric analysis of 976 academic publications between 1990 and 2015 related to climate change and tourism is presented to characterize the intellectual landscape by identifying and visualizing the evolution of the collaboration network, the co-citation network, and emerging trends. The results show that the number of publications in this field has increased rapidly and it has become an increasingly interdisciplinary research subject. The most productive authors and institutions in this subject area are in Australia, USA, Canada, New Zealand, and European countries. In this paper, we identify the most pressing topics of climate change and tourism research, as represented in the existing literature, which include the consequences of climate change for tourism, necessary adaptations, the vulnerability of the tourism industry, tourist behaviour and demand in response to climate change, and emission reductions in the tourism sector. The paper presents an in-depth analysis of climate change and tourism research to better understand global trends and directions in this field that have emerged over the past 25 years.
... Existing impact assessment studies are as varied in geographical focus as they are from a methodological point of view: some are concerned with a single destination, such as a national park (Richardson and Loomis, 2004), or type of tourism, for example winter tourism in the Alps (Elsasser and Bürki, 2002); others deal with entire countries (Harrison et al., 1999;Hein et al., 2009), or take a global perspective (Berrittella et al., 2005;Hamilton et al., 2005b). The area we examine is Tuscany, in central Italy. ...
... In Scotland, the Glenshee Tourism Association has been reported as targeting ramblers, cyclists, historians and sightseers due to concerns about sustainability of the skiing industry (SCCIP, 2010). However, evidence from Harrison et al. (1999) suggests Scotland may benefit from an improved summer climate and coast, conducive to outdoor activities, and access roads to ski resorts may be less prone to blockage by snow and ice. ...
The chapter reviews if and how the current and future climate poses risks and creates
opportunities for business activities in the UK. This is in order to explore where government
action is needed most urgently between 2018 and 2022 to support private sector adaptation.
https://documents.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UK-CCRA-2017-Chapter-6-Business-and-industry.pdf
... The effects of climate change on tourism -mountain slopes tourism could show themselves particularly vulnerable to a context of climate change. It is not so surprising that the impact of climate change on mountain tourism or related to the snow sports has been extensively studied in the context of the literature on climate change and tourism, focusing on the likely depleted conditions of the facilities slopes, the need for better technologies to increase the amount of snow available, the need to build facilities at higher altitudes, amplify the supply of tourism products and activities less snow-dependent (König and Abbeg, 1997;König, 1999, Harrison, Winterbottom andSheppard, 1999;Breiling and Charamza, 1999;Elsasser and Messerli, 2001;Elsasser and Bürki, 2002;Bürki, Elsasser and Abegg, 2003;Scott, McBoyle and Mills, 2003;Harrison, Winterbottom and Johnson, 2005;Hall and Highmans, 2005;Bürki et al., 2005;Moen and Fredman, 2007). In any case, some authors have also sought to highlight the positive side for warm countries with higher altitudes, who could benefit from seeing their increased attraction (Amelung and Viner, 2004;. ...
The fast growth of the tourism industry over the past decades is one of the most remarkable economic phenomena of our time. In a context of global warming, many of the countries or destinations are considering which effects on the demand and the tourism industry can be foreseen and how they should be tackled. In this paper the most relevant studies that have tried to link climate change and tourism from the economic point of view are analyzed. Then, the possible impacts of global warming on the tourism and their contribution to greenhouse gases emission are reviewed as well as the effects that different mitigation measures could have on the tourism industry. Although there has been an increase of knowledge about the perception of stakeholders on climate change and its effects on tourism activity, the results of this literature review suggest the need to expand the climatic variables included in the analysis, to consult tourist about weather as a travel decision determinant and to regionalize the studies already performed (in special those predicting models), in order to go in deep in the analysis of the interactions between climate change and tourism, but also the necessity to know the consequences of global warming on environment in the sense that it is the most important attraction for the main tourist destinations.
... TCI is a weighted index indicating the relative importance of the weather and climate variables in terms of their contribution toward tourists' wellbeing. Some studies have used this index to model tourism demand (e.g., Goh 2012;Moore 2010;Goh, Law, and Mok 2008;Harrison, Winterbottom, and Sheppard 1999;Amelung, Nicholls, and Viner 2007;Hein 2007). However, research on the relationship between climate/weather and tourist behavior should not be based solely on how climatic dimensions affect tourists' comfort or well-being. ...
A new model that links climate and seasonal tourism demand is developed to study the effects of home climate, destination climate, and climate difference between destinations and source markets on seasonal tourism demand. Using the dynamic panel data technique, the study focuses on the demand of tourists from Hong Kong for 19 of the major tourism cities in Mainland China. The results show that the home climate, destination climate, and the difference in climate between home and destination cities all have significant influence on tourism demand. Furthermore, demand for Mainland Chinese tourism among Hong Kong residents is found to be driven by the climate at the place of origin, while the effects of destination climate and climate difference are weaker.
... Relatedly, Hamilton and his colleagues (2007) found the amount of snowfall in metropolitan areas adjacent to ski destinations in the northeastern US was positively and significantly related to daily visitation rates at those destinations. Similar strong correlations between visitation rates (most commonly measured as daily counts at ski resorts) and snowfall have been found in Australia (Pickering, 2011), Austria (Elsasser and Burki, 2002), Canada (Scott et al., 2003), Japan (Fukushima et al., 2002), and Scotland (Harrison et al., 1999). Two simulation-based studies in Italy (Balbi et al., 2013) and the Pyrenees (northern Spain, southern France and Andorra) (Pons et al., 2014) have projected the demand for skiing into the future under variable rates of climate change using downscaled climate models; both studies suggest demand will likely see declines proportional to reductions in snowfall unless artificial snow production is used. ...
... The use of inappropriate impact indicators is a first limitation. Some studies simply model natural snow conditions near ski areas without any specific indicators relevant to ski operations, such as the length of the ski season or openingclosing dates (e.g., Harrison et al. 1999;Uhlmann et al. 2009;Endler and Matzarakis 2011). Others utilize indicators that are not relevant to ski area operations, such as snow cover (which is a meteorological variable defined as 2.5 cm of snow, when ski operators require 30-100 cm of snow to open a ski run depending on terrain) (e.g., McBoyle et al. 1986;Lamothe and Periard 1988) or snow water equivalent on the first day of April (which is a widely used hydrological indicator for summer water supply in mountainous regions, but one that provides no insight into snow accumulation in the vital start of the ski season or the number of days with necessary operational snow depth) (e.g., Zimmerman et al. 2006). ...
Tourism is an increasingly salient global economic sector that is recognized as highly climate sensitive. Mountain destinations and the multi-billion dollar ski industry are considered particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change. This chapter explores the evolution of the ski industry's climate sensitivity over the last three decades and the climate adaptations that made this possible. Existing climate vulnerability assessments of the ski industry are critically examined and a new sensitivity analysis framework introduced to facilitate future vulnerability comparisons of the world's major ski regions and specific destinations. Recommendations for policy makers and ski industry stakeholders conclude the chapter.
... Austria (Breiling et al., 1997), Scotland (Harrison et al., 1999) and Switzerland (König and Abegg, 1997) all project negative consequences for the industry and associated businesses, including shortened operating seasons. In North America, Lamothe and Periard (1988) and McBoyle and Wall (1992), using the climate change scenarios of the period, estimated that the lower Laurentian Mountains in Quebec would experience a 34 to 49% and 42 to 87% reduction in ski seasons, respectively. ...
... More recently, Connoly (2008) and Graff Zivin and Neidell (2010) provide empirical evidence suggesting that climate change might also alter the allocation of time between leisure and labour supply and bear significant economic consequences. 2 There are also numerous specific case-studies concerning European regions where site-specific vulnerability to climatic conditions is more easily identified, see, for instance, Maddison (2001), Maddison and Bigano (2003), Harrison et al. (1999) and Perry (2000). represent the most common form of tourism. ...
We investigate the impact of climatic change on welfare in European regions using a hedonic travel-cost framework and focusing on tourism demand. Our hedonic price estimations combine detailed hotel price information with tourism-specific travel cost estimations for each pair of EU region. This approach allows us to estimate different valuations of climate amenities depending on time duration of holidays. In our analysis of adaptation to climate change we therefore consider holiday duration as variable of adaptation. Our findings suggest that the rise in temperature in preferred destination choices during the summer season (i.e. southern EU) is likely to yield significant welfare losses. As a result European tourists are more likely to spend shorter (and more frequent) holidays and to diversify their destination choices in order to mitigate these losses.
Dünya genelinde önemli bir sorun haline gelen iklim değişikliği, ülkelerin ekonomilerini tehdit eden konuma ulaşmıştır. İklim değişikliğinde meydana gelen değişimler tarım, sağlık, çevre ve ekonomi gibi faktörleri olumlu ya da olumsuz yönde etkileme potansiyeline sahiptir. İklimde meydana gelen değişim, sıcaklık ve yağışta değişikliğe neden olmakta ve bunun sonucu aşırı sıcaklık ve aşırı yağış durumları ortaya çıkmakta ve tarımsal üretim bundan önemli ölçüde etkilenebilmektedir. Bu durumda tarımsal katma değer azalarak ekonomik büyümenin olumsuz etkilemesine neden olmaktadır. İklim değişikliği, ekonomik büyümeyi doğrudan değil dolaylı olarak etkileyebilir. Bazı ülkeler sahip oldukları coğrafya ve gelişmişlik düzeyine bağlı olarak iklim değişikliğine daha kolay uyum sağlayarak bu durumdan daha az etkilenirken, bazıları ise iklim değişikliğine uyum sağlamakta zorlanmakta ve ondan daha olumsuz etkilenebilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, iklim değişikliğinin tarımsal katma değer üzerindeki etkisini 16 Akdeniz ülkesinin gelişmişlik düzeyleri ve bölgesel farklılıklarını da dikkate alarak analiz etmektir. Panel veri analizi yönteminin kullanıldığı çalışmada 1990-2019 arası yıllık verileri kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, bölgesel farklılık bağlamında Güneybatı Akdeniz ülkelerine kıyasla sıcaklığın tarımsal katma değer üzerindeki etkisi Kuzeybatı Akdeniz ve Kuzeydoğu Akdeniz bölgesi ülkelerinde daha olumsuz iken, Güneydoğu Akdeniz bölgesi ülkelerinde ise daha az olumsuz etkiye sahiptir. Gelişmişlik düzeyleri bağlamında orta insani gelişme endeksine sahip ülkelere göre sıcaklığın tarımsal katma değer üzerindeki etkisi çok yüksek insani gelişme endeksi ekonomiler de daha az ve olumlu yönde seyretmektedir.
Bringing together many of the world's leading experts, this volume is a comprehensive, state-of-the-art review of climate change science, impacts, mitigation, adaptation, and policy. It provides an integrated assessment of research on the key topics that underlie current controversial policy questions. The first part of the book addresses recent topics and findings related to the physical-biological earth system. The next part of the book surveys estimates of the impacts of climate change for different sectors and regions. The third part examines current topics related to mitigation of greenhouse gases and explores the potential roles of various technological options. The last part focuses on policy design under uncertainty. Dealing with the scientific, economic and policy questions at the forefront of the climate change issue, this book will be invaluable for graduate students, researchers and policymakers interested in all aspects of climate change and the issues that surround it.
Depuis l‘occurrence des phénomènes climatiques extrêmes dus aux changements climatiques beaucoup d‘études ont été menée sur différents secteurs de la vie économique, sociale et environnementale. Mais l'ensemble des données disponibles touche très peu le secteur du tourismequi est l’un des plus importants dans la croissance économique des pays du Monde. En conséquence, cette étude vise à mettre en exergue les relations qui lient actuellement le bioclimat humain et le tourisme dans un contexte d’adaptation et de prévision.Pour cette étude, les données touristiques (statistiques d’arrivée, nuitée, nationalité, lieu de provenance) et les données climatologiques (pluie, température, humidité relative, insolation et vent) ont été utilisés. Ces données à l‘aide des calculs statistiques (moyenne, ACP, corrélation de Pearson), des indices bioclimatiques (indice climato-touristique, tension de vapeur) et des investigations sur le terrain, ont permis de déterminer les ambiances de climato-touristiques dans l’espace côtier du Bénin et la perception des acteurs du tourisme sur l’évolution des bioclimats humains sur la période de 1971-2010.Le score ICT dans toutes les villes oscille entre l’acceptable et l’excellent. Le score est plus réduit pendant les mois de saisons de pluie. Quant à la préférence climatique des touristes, plus de 80 % des touristes préfèrent le temps beau et ensoleille contre 10 % de temps chaud et lourd et 2 % de beau temps avec couverture nuageuse. À l’horizon 2020-2039, la baisse des ambiances climato-touristiques serait de l’ordre 2 à 3 % selon les résultats du scénario A1B du modèle ReMO.Plus de 80 % des professionnels ont remarqué une modification dans l’évolution des paramètres climatiques spécifiquement dans la perception du temps ressenti. Sur les 80 % des professionnels du secteur ludique et 40 % du secteur culturel s’accordent sur une conséquence plus ou moins faible sur leurs activités. Par contre 51 % du secteur hôtellerie et restauration s’accorde sur une régression sensible de leurs activités. Ces tendances sont de nature à nécessiter des stratégies d’adaptation dans l’espace côtier du Bénin. Ces stratégies appellent à la connaissance des risques et à la mise en place de dispositifs d’alerte et de gestion des crises adaptés aux populations touristiques.
İklim, turizm destinasyonunun se iminde, turizm faaliyetlerinin ve turizm periyodunun
belirlenmesinde nemli bir fakt rdür. İklim değişikliği ve turizm ilişkisine
bu perspektiften yaklaşıldığı zaman, dünyadaki turizm dinamiklerinin,
popüler turizm destinasyonlarının, turist eken ve turist üreten merkezlerin
yeniden tanımlanma sürecine girecekleri ve bu süre te farklı b lgeler i in farklı
tehditler ve fırsatların ortaya ıkacağı g rülmektedir. Bugün dünyanın en
popüler turizm destinasyonlarından biri olan ve Türkiye’nin de i inde bulunduğu
Akdeniz havzası i in oluşacak fırsat ve tehditleri ng rebilmek ve buna
uyumlu turizm planlaması yapmak bu b lgedeki turizm sekt rünün sürekliliği
a ısından olduk a kritiktir. Türkiye i in nemli bir ekonomik sekt r olan turizmin
iklim değişikliğine karşı dayanıklılığının arttırılması, gelecekteki turizm gelişme,
yatırım ve teşvik politikalarının ng rülen tehdit ve fırsatları g zeterek
oluşturulması ile mümkündür. Bu alışma, Türkiye i in ng rülen iklim değişikliği
senaryolarını dikkate alarak turizm sekt rünün karşı karşıya kalacağı fırsat
ve tehditleri belirlemeyi ve gelecek turizm planlaması i in altlık oluşturacak
neriler geliştirmeyi ama lamaktadır. Bu ama er evesinde detaylı bir literatür
alışması yapılarak, elde edilen bulgular GZFT (SWOT) analizi y ntemi
ile değerlendirilmiştir. Bu alışma, iklim değişikliğine karşı Türkiye turizminin
güncel ve gelecekteki durumunu ortaya koyması ve bu temelde neri geliştirmesi
bakımından nemlidir.
Økologisk kunnskap om fortida er en nøkkel til å kunne forstå og forklare dagens variasjon i jordsmonn, plantesamfunn, artsutbredelse og artsmangfold i fjellet. Variasjon i temperatur, isforhold og økologiske prosesser under og etter istiden har skapt grunnlaget for dagens plantesamfunn og økologiske forhold. Forholdene under den varmeste perioden etter istiden kan også indikere hvordan forholdene kan bli med økende temperaturer i framtida. Et sentralt spørsmål har lenge vært om istiden utslettet all vegetasjon slik at plantene måtte etableres på nytt, eller om planter kan ha overlevd noen steder i Skandinavia eller i nærområdene.
This paper aims to analyse the operational performance of French ski resorts by using data envelopment analysis models. The findings show that the hierarchical category data envelopment analysis is more appropriate than the standard one as it takes into account heterogeneity. The impact of the business environment (size, ownership, elevation, and location) on performance level is assessed with efficiency scores that are significantly higher for smaller ski resorts, those that are public managed, and those located at medium elevations. In addition, the results highlight a statistical relation between ski resort location and performance. Finally, the implications of the results and future research perspectives are discussed.
Küresel ısınma ve dolayısıyla iklim değişiklikleri, dünyanın dengesini değiştiren önemli bir coğrafi olaydır ve bu olaydan tüm flora ve fauna etkilenmektedir. Küresel ısınmanın ortaya çıkaracağı iklim değişikliğinin en çok Akdeniz bölgesindeki ülkeleri etkileyeceği belirtilmektedir. Bu etkilerin başında; orman yangınların artması, deniz suyu seviyesinin yükselmesi, aşırı sıcak geçecek yaz aylarında yangınların artması ve vahşi yaşamı etkilemesi gelmektedir. Bu saydığımız tehditler bir Akdeniz ülkesi olan ülkemizi ve ülkemiz turizmini etkileyeceği çok açıktır. Çalışmamızda küresel ısınma ve iklim değişikliğine ilişkin genel açıklamalar, iklim değişikliğinin nedenleri, iklim değişikliğine neden olan gazların sanayi devriminden sonra başlayarak günümüze kadar olan artış oranları, iklim değişikliğinin insan sağlığı, ekosistemler, Türkiye ve Akdeniz Bölgesi başta olmak üzere tüm dünya üzerinde olası etkileri ve turizme yönelik etkilerine değinilmiştir. Ayrıca iklim değişikliğini önlemeye yönelik yapılmış olan önceki araştırmalara da değinilmiştir.
Weather and climate affect all living organisms that inhabit our planet. At the same time, weather and climate influence a person as a biological being (on his or her well-being), as well as on most branches of his or her economic activity. The tourism sector (and especially some types of tourism) is among the most dependent on the weather and climate among human activities. The customer loyalty plays a vital role within the tourism and hospitality industry. It is very important to make sure the customers are satisfied and remain as loyal as possible, because the loyal customers work as a good promotion tool as they spread the WoM (word of mouth) within their friends, family, relatives and others. On the contrary, not being satisfied to the service or product may translate into a negative feedback, which can lead to a bad image for the business of a certain destination. The main purpose of this study is to identify the variables that are significant to explain loyalty to Algarve, as a touristic destination in terms of the climatic factors. Here, in this study, one tries to study the relation between meteorological factors and level of loyalty of tourists. The definition of climate requires a long-term duration (almost a year). Given the fact that most of the visiting tourist are not staying in any destination that long, in this study, the chosen sample group were international tourist to Algarve, Portugal. In relation to process of data gathering for this study, a number of 70 international tourist aged between 30-40 years old were interviewed and asked several questions relating to the Mediterranean climate and its impacts on their loyalty over a particular destination (In this case, Algarve). According to the research, it is found that the key factors that prove the loyalty of international tourists to the Algarve are comfortable temperature, sunny days and humidity.
Bu çalışmada ülkemizin Güney ve Güneybatı sahillerinde yer alan kıyı destinasyonlarındaki turizm konfor şartları araştırılmıştır. Mieczkowski (1985) tarafından geliştirilen ve Turizm İklim İndeksi (TCI) olarak bilinen turizm faaliyetlerine uygun bir konfor ölçeği istasyonların iklim parametrelerine uygulanmıştır. TCI ölçeğinden elde edilen sonuçlar şu şekildedir: 1) Tüm istasyonlarda bahar yükseği turizm konfor modeli görülmüştür. 2)''Zayıf’’ kategoride adlandırılan -TCI değerlerinin tüm aylarda 40 ve altında olduğu- bir istasyona rastlanılmamıştır. 3)''Optimum’ kategoride olan -TCI değerlerinin tüm aylarda 80 ve üzeri olduğu- bir istasyon bulunmamaktadır. 4) İstasyonların genelinde yaz mevsimi turizm konfor değerlerinin en düşük olduğu mevsim olmuştur. Bu durum yaz mevsimindeki sıcaklık artışı ve nem koşullarından kaynaklanmaktadır. 5) Turizm konfor şartlarının kış mevsiminde de yüksek değerlere sahip olması çalışma sahasında turizmin on iki aya yayılmasına olanak sağlamaktadır. 6) İstasyonlar arasında turizm konfor şartlarının en uygun olduğu destinasyon Mayıs ayı ile Marmaris ve Nisan ayı ile Bodrum olmuştur. 7) İstasyonların hiçbirinde TCI değerlerinin 90 ve üzeri olduğu, ''Mükemmel'' kategoride yer alan bir aya rastlanmamıştır. Gerek sürdürülebilir turizm planlamaları uygulamaları, gerekse de iklim değişikliğinin olumsuz etkilerini azaltmak için bu ve benzeri çalışmaların sonuçlarının göz önünde bulundurulması gerekmektedir.
The aim of this article is to model the decisions of tourists and a monopolist firm when weather forecasts are available. Before deciding whether to go on holiday or not, but after the firm has decided and posted its price, tourists can look at weather forecasts. Our results show that the price chosen by the firm and the corresponding equilibrium profit are decreasing as a function of the accuracy of weather forecasts. Consumers, instead, are better off, the more accurate weather forecasts become. Managerial and policy implications are also derived.
Climate change is likely to have a significant effect on snow globally, with most effect where current winter temperatures are close to 0°C, including parts of upland Britain. There is evidence of decreasing trends in observations of snowfall and lying snow in Britain, and climate projections suggest a continuation of this trend. Although river flows in Britain are generally dominated by rainfall rather than snowmelt, some upland catchments have a significant snowmelt contribution. There is evidence of changes in observed and projected river flows in some catchments in Britain, linked to changes in snow, but it can be difficult to distinguish the effects of snow changes from those of other concurrent changes (climatic and non-climatic). Flow regime changes in catchments with widespread and prolonged winter snow cover usually involve increases in winter flow and decreases in spring flow, but the effect on catchments with more transient snow cover is less clear, as is the effect on high flows and water quality. Snow can also affect a number of other factors of socio-economic or environmental importance (e.g. transport and farming). There is some evidence that disruption due to snow may be less frequent in future, but disruption from other types of weather event may increase. The impacts of snow tend to be worse in areas where events occur less frequently, due to unpreparedness, so there is a need to guard against complacency when it comes to future snow events in Britain, which can still be expected despite a likely reduction in frequency. Further modelling of the potential impacts of climate change, including modelling the influence of snow changes as well as other climatic and non-climatic changes, would aid adaptation and encourage mitigation.
Several key tourism authors highlight the growing need for both stakeholder collaboration and community involvement in tourism development. The Highland resort of Aviemore suffered a period of dilapidation in the 1990's which saw a dramatic fall in reinvestment and visitor numbers. The beginning of the 21st century has seen levels of investment including the establishment of the Macdonald Aviemore Highland Resort however there have been reports of a level of conflict between this resort and the residents of Aviemore. This chapter investigates the levels of stakeholder conflict in Aviemore and the impact that this has or may have on the destination. The chapter also examines the level of stakeholder collaboration in its development and the general levels of development of Aviemore. Semi-structured interviews were used with 10 key stakeholder groups in Aviemore including public sector authorities, private sector businesses and with the Aviemore Highland Resort. A further 23 short survey interviews were conducted with residents of Aviemore which aimed to investigate opinions and attitudes towards the Aviemore Highland Resort. The results indicated that in regards to the development of Aviemore, there have been considerable levels of rejuvenation since the 1990's and the forecasted decline in skiing is not believed to be of a great threat to tourism in the area. However results into the development of the Aviemore Highland Resort supported the previously mentioned report of the resort-community conflict. This was said to be a result of the resort's poor public relations with the community and a lack of involvement in decision making. The chapter makes recommendations for the application of stakeholder collaboration theory as a way of implementing stakeholder involvement and to improve the resort-community relationship.
Global temperatures rose by over 0.5°C during the 20th century and current estimates suggest that they will continue to rise at between 0.2 and 0.3°C per decade during the course of the 21st century. This increasing trend towards warmer temperatures could have major consequences for the tourism industry, which is heavily dependent on present climatic and environmental conditions. The ecosystems of many international holiday destinations are potentially vulnerable to climate change. This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change for ten international tourist destinations. The most serious impacts will result from the effects of sea-level rise on small island states. Other impacts likely to affect tourism include coral bleaching, outbreaks of fire, changed migration patterns of animals and birds, flooding, the spread of vector-borne diseases and shorter skiing seasons. Without appropriate adaptive measures, climate change could produce a shift in the comparative attractiveness of tourist destina...
Climate change is the single most important global environmental and development issue facing the world today and has emerged as a major topic in tourism studies. Climate change is already affecting the tourism industry and is anticipated to have profound implications for tourism in the twenty-first century, including consumer holiday choices, the geographic patterns of tourism demand, the competitiveness and sustainability of destinations and the contribution of tourism to international development.
The snow covered mountains of the Australian Alps are nationally and internationally important due to their conservation significance, ecosystem services and economic values. Predicted increases in temperature and decreasing precipitation due to climate change will result in dramatic changes in the region with snow cover already declining (approximately 30% since 1954). While the Australian Alps are of high conservation value with most subalpine and alpine areas conserved in a series of protected areas, the area is used by a number of different stakeholders. In or adjacent to, the protected areas there are currently 10 ski resorts, with winter visitation to the resorts worth AU10 billion/annum for actual water and products from industries reliant on water supplies from the Alps catchment). This is an important social limit that was not recognised by stakeholders who were more focussed on local or regional limits.
While several conflicts have arisen and/or are likely to arise among stakeholder groups in relation to the flow-on effects of various adaptation strategies, there is also a great potential for collaboration in relation to other adaptation strategies in the region.
Recommendations
Based on the results of this study we recommend:
1) Identifying a common goal or vision for the future of the Australian Alps in relation to the state of the environment that is acceptable to all stakeholders.
2) Due to increasing recognition of the need to adapt to future climate change regardless of mitigation actions and success, greater emphasis on research that specifically addresses the information needs of stakeholders is needed. This includes a detailed investigation of the information requirements of each stakeholder group and collaborative partnerships that can be generated to both collect data and use the information in feasible, successful management strategies and actions.
3) Identifying methods to best raise awareness of the regional and national significance of the Australian Alps in both the general public and stakeholders involved with the management of the region.
4) Increase mitigation of climate change to minimise the severity of the negative physical, ecological, social and economic impacts of climate change including in the Australian Alps. Adaptations strategies for the Australian Alps will only delay and/or have a minor effect on the severity of the impacts of climate change in the region.
5) Formally identify, promote and fund collaborative stakeholder partnerships.
Der Tourismus bildet einen wesentlichen Bestandteil der österreichischen Wirtschaft, insbesondere der Wintertourismus gewinnt dabei nach wie vor an Bedeutung. Die Verletzbarkeit, die sich aus dieser ausgeprägten wirtschaftlichen Abhängigkeit mancher Regionen vom Tourismus ergibt, wird durch wetterbedingte und klimatische Einflüsse zunehmend verstärkt. Kurzfristige Wetterschwankungen und Klimaänderungen sowie deren Einfluss auf den Tourismus stehen daher im Fokus dieser grundlegenden Forschungsarbeit für alle Gemeinden Österreichs. Mit Hilfe der Analyse von Klimaänderungsszenarien sowie der wetter- und klimabedingten Vulnerabilität der regionalen Wirtschaft wird dieser Zusammenhang erstmals systematisch und flächendeckend thematisiert.
Die detaillierten Untersuchungsergebnisse für repräsentative Schigebiete in den unterschiedlichen Klimazonen und Höhenlagen geben Auskunft darüber, welche Beschneiungstechnologien künftig wie viele Schifahrtage für den Tourismus garantieren werden können. Im Hinblick auf die weitere Konkretisierung geeigneter Anpassungsstrategien ermöglicht die profunde regionalwirtschaftliche Analyse neben den Überlegungen zu den technischen Maßnahmen aber auch Aussagen über die notwendige Verbreiterung der regionalen Einkommensquellen und die Steigerung der Flexibilität des sozioökonomischen Systems.
Climate change and the tourism sustainable development are important challenges for tourism future trends of many countries, including the French West Indies. Therefore, this study provides an evaluation of the likely economic effects of climate change on tourism sector in Guadeloupe and Martinique, and identifies four reasons why these countries should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) Guadeloupe and Martinique are island destinations very sensitive to climate change; (b) their intrinsic vulnerability and their infrastructure to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); (c) the high dependence of their tourist industry on carbon-based fuels; and (d) up to date, no economic evaluation of climate change on tourism sector in Guadeloupe and Martinique is provided. Therefore, this study attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors on the economy of the French West Indies. There are four main objectives in this study. The first is to examine the factors that influence the demand and supply tourism in Guadeloupe and Martinique. The second is to forecast the impact of climate change to tourism arrivals until 2050 under two scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) - A2: pessimistic scenario and B2: optimistic scenario-. Third is to evaluate and forecast the cost of climate change to the tourism sector until 2100. The fourth is to recommend to authorities the adaptation and mitigation strategies that can be undertaken by the tourism sector to French West Indies to address climate change.Following Harvey (1990), a Basic Structural Model (BSM) and a General structural Model (GSM), are employed to model tourist arrivals to Martinique. A tourism climatic index (TCI) conceptualized by Mieczkowski (1985) is used in this model to capture the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will probably decline, and therefore, negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Tourism losses due to climate change are projected in 2100 to 45 millions euros in Guadeloupe, or 0.7% of its GDP, and to 60 millions euros in Martinique, or 0,8% of its GDP.
Australian snowfields are small with a short and variable season and are very sensitive to changes in climate. The effects of possible greenhouse-induced climate changes are studied by two models based on snowcourse and climate station data. The models are applied to the ski resorts at Perisher, Hotham and mt Selwyn and indicate the mean duration of their snow season would fall from about 130, 135 and 81 days to about 60, 60 and 15 days, respectively, if average winter temperatures rose by 2°C and precipitation fell by 20%. The area suitable for cross-country skiing in New South Wales would fall from about 1400 to 270km2. If the climate changes occurred in the opposite sense, the snow season would increase to about 180, 190 and 140 days, respectively, and the cross country skiing area in New South Wales would rise to 4000km2. -Author
Spatial and temporal variations in the Scottish climate are determined, to a large extent, by the controlling influence of the circumpolar westerly component of the global atmospheric circulation. Smaller-scale variations are related to proximity to coasts, the nature of sur-face cover such as urban or afforested areas, and topography. Observations from eight Scottish climatological stations were extracted from the Monthly Weather Report of the Meteorological Office for the period 1964 to 1993 in order to identify any recent trends in climate. The general conclusions reached are that there has been (i) a decrease in direct solar radiation in western Scotland, with some indication of an increase in the east, (ii) an increase in air temperature in winter and spring, (iii) an increase in precipitation during the winter months in north-west Scotland with slight decreases in the east, and (iv) some evidence of an increase in the frequency and strength of westerly winds. These are consistent with an increasing influence of middle-latitude westerlies during the winter half-year which may possibly be linked to larger-scale climate changes resulting from global warming.
The objective of this study is to analyse theme park visitors' behaviour among the Scots in order to assist the development of strategic and tactical plans. The attitudinal data, collected through a questionnaire, included three sets of variables — consumers' choice criteria, informational sources, and importance of park attributes. The results indicate that fun rides, little waiting, and good climate/environment were the most important choice criteria. Friends and family members played a critical role in providing information, while television and radio advertising were also revealed as important sources of information.
The Northern Ireland summer of 1985
- N L Betts
Betts, N. L. (1985). The Northern Ireland summer of 1985. Journal of Meteorology (ºK), 10(104), 357—360.
An index of Scottish summers. ¼eather, 35, 39—42. Climate Change Impacts Review Group ¹he potential effects of climate change in the ºnited Kingdom. London: HMSO. Climate Change Impacts Review Group Review of the potential effects of climate change in the ºnited Kingdom
- R H Blair
Blair, R. H. (1980). An index of Scottish summers. ¼eather, 35, 39—42. Climate Change Impacts Review Group. (1991). ¹he potential effects of climate change in the ºnited Kingdom. London: HMSO. Climate Change Impacts Review Group. (1996). Review of the potential effects of climate change in the ºnited Kingdom. London: HMSO.
Characterising winters: An index for use in applied meteorology
- S J Harrison
- D J Harrison
Harrison, S. J., & Harrison, D. J. (1991). Characterising winters: An index for use in applied meteorology. Journal of Meteorology (ºK), 16(164), 329—333.
¼eather information for tourism and outdoor recreation
- S J Harrison
- K Smith
Harrison, S. J., Smith, K. (1988). ¼eather information for tourism and outdoor recreation. Report CHº/03/88. University of Stirling.
Tourism and the Scottish weather
- B Hay
Hay, B. (1989). Tourism and the Scottish weather. In Harrison, S. J., Smith, K. (Eds.), ¼eather sensitivity and services in Scotland. Edin-burgh: Scottish Academic Press.
The winter of 1962—63 in the UK — climatological survey. Meteorological Magazine The influence of weather and climate on recreation and tourism
- H C Shellard
Shellard, H. C. (1968). The winter of 1962—63 in the UK — climatological survey. Meteorological Magazine, 97, 129—141. Smith, K. (1993). The influence of weather and climate on recreation and tourism. ¼eather, 48, 398—404.
Cold winter of 1995—96 analysed using Harrison's Index The variability of days of air frost in Great Britain 1957—83
- G Spellman
- —273 S J ¼eather
- Harrison
Spellman, G. (1996). Cold winter of 1995—96 analysed using Harrison's Index. Journal of Meteorology (ºK), 21(211), 301—303. Tout, D. G. (1987). The variability of days of air frost in Great Britain 1957—83. ¼eather, 268—273. S.J. Harrison et al. / Tourism Management 20 (1999) 203–211