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Dimensions in the confluence of futures studies and action research
Abstract
This article puts forward the proposition that the confluence of action research and futures studies can be seen across a number of domains: political, organisational, grassroots, global and individual. While this confluence embodies an heterogeneity of practices, it is their underlying approach, the processes used, which are shared. Identifying both the many distinctive practices in their unique contexts, and their more homogeneous processes is the primary task of this paper. Aspects of this confluence are explored as they relate to social change, empowerment, humanisation, ways of knowing and ethics.
... Finally, making the use of the future an empowerment process requires an action research posture as defined by Ramos (2006) with five characteristics: it aims at improving the human condition, it is participatory, it is heuristic, it is research by participants for participants and it has "a democratic ethos" (p644). Ramos (2006), p. 649) identifies three levels of practice where a confluence between action research and future studies can be observed, namely the "first person" (transpersonal and educational) the "second person" (community and organizational) and the "third person" (inter-organisational and subpolitical). ...
... Finally, making the use of the future an empowerment process requires an action research posture as defined by Ramos (2006) with five characteristics: it aims at improving the human condition, it is participatory, it is heuristic, it is research by participants for participants and it has "a democratic ethos" (p644). Ramos (2006), p. 649) identifies three levels of practice where a confluence between action research and future studies can be observed, namely the "first person" (transpersonal and educational) the "second person" (community and organizational) and the "third person" (inter-organisational and subpolitical). ...
... Reference: (Ramos, 2006) Action research lead by participants for the participants, with a democratic ethos, at the convergence of "first person" and "second person" Anticipatory action learning in the sense that it "is goal-creating, where goals are selected and created during the process and not preordained by an external authority" (Stevenson, 2006: p670). Implementation by trained local resource persons as facilitators and local actors as "doers" ...
... In similar ways as this approach to planning, action research (AR) is concerned with the collaboration between various stakeholders as a way of solving problems. Indeed, strong similarities are evident between AR and foresights [1][2][3][4][5]. There are also similarities between AR and the planning literature that argues for societal democratic, deliberative, and participative approaches to creating knowledge about possible futures, for establishing views and decisions on long-term visions, and for outlining strategies for collective action [6][7][8][9][10][11]. ...
... The article reflects upon and develops the concept of action research (AR) as it relates to regional-foresight practices in connection with regional planning strategies (policies), according to Norway's new Planning and Building Act (PBA, 2008). Both AR and regional foresight are broad terms within a number of domains, and several contributions have sought to show how these are interlinked Ramos (2006). The focus is on how AR and action researchers both contribute to the co-creation of regional and subregional formulation of planning by regional-foresight processes, which are driven by decision-making regional bodies. ...
... Strategic facilitation can also be explained as participation with a forward view. 1 Our approach to strategic facilitation was based on the following goals for the AR. One was the establishment of solid and open communication with the CM's directing forums. ...
... These waves of change are: the renewed embrace by the FS field of the family of practices and principles known collectively as action research; and evolutionary emergence of Integral Futures [1,2]. 2) To explore embodied foresight [3,4] as a model for FS expertise suited to a participatory world, showing the relationship between the unfolding waves of change and this proposed approach to FS expertise. Futures 44 (2012) Action research principles and practices have a long history of application in the futures field, and in recent years have seen a resurgence of interest. ...
... Finally, I will conclude by looking at the nature of expertise in a world that gives rise to the integral perspective and will examine the role of PAR in developing this expertise. The term embodied foresight, introduced previously by Floyd, Burns and Ramos [3] and incorporating earlier views on ethical practice expressed by Ramos [4], will be used to characterise this view of expertise. ...
... While acknowledging the heterogeneity of practices comprising AR, and the wide diversity of theoretical influences, significant commonalities are readily discerned in terms of underlying process and approach [4]. Within the context of these shared characteristics, Ramos also points out the explicitly participatory and democratic nature of AR: there is widely shared desire to seek multiple perspectives and openness to different ways of establishing these [4]. ...
Action research principles and practices have a long history of application in the futures field, and in recent years have seen a resurgence of interest. With the emergence of integral foresight and futures studies, action research takes on increased significance as a pathway to development of expertise in this new domain. This article outlines the essential characteristics of action research, and looks at how action research has influenced futures studies to date. It then explores in more depth the specific congruence between action research practices and the principles of integral foresight and futures studies. An approach to understanding expertise in futures and foresight practice consistent with the integral perspective is explored. This draws on the enactive approach to cognition and leads to a model of expertise described as embodied foresight. Action research is proposed as an important contributor to the development of embodied foresight.
... (Polchar et al., 2020). Dans la section suivante, nous verrons comment ces consid erations d ecoloniales s'articulent avec les cinq caract eristiques de la recherche-action anticipatoire propos ees par Ramos (2006). ...
... 4. C'est «une recherche faite par les participants pour les participants, qui r epond a la question fondamentale de la «recherche au profit de qui»? 5. Elle s'appuie sur «une ethique d emocratique, qui vise a critiquer les relations de pouvoir, a r epondre aux dol eances des groupes marginalis es et a parvenir a l'autonomisation locale face a un pouvoir institutionnalis e enracin e». Ramos (2006) a en outre identifi e plusieurs etudes sur les futurs avec des r ef erences au moins implicites a la recherche-action par des praticiens connus, tels que Bell, Bezold, Dator ou Schultz. Quelques ann ees plus tard, la recherche-action a et e identifi ee comme un type de m ethodes anticipatoires participatives (Gidley et al., 2009). ...
Cet article est en accès libre jusqu'au 31 décembre 2022 sur https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-08-2022-0090/full/html
Objectif
L'objectif visé est de nourrir les réflexions sur la colonisation du futur dans le présent en mettant particulièrement l’accent sur le continent africain. Nous visons à explorer comment la recherche participative, et plus particulièrement la recherche-action anticipatoire, peut contribuer au processus de décolonisation effective.
Conception/méthodologie/approche
Considérant le futur comme un bien public, nous mobilisons une réflexion sur les processus coloniaux qui l’ont transformé, à bien des égards, en bien de club ou en bien privé. Nous faisons ensuite appel aux notions de production participative de connaissances et de recherche-action locale comme moyens de décoloniser le futur et de libérer l'imagination. Nous revisitons ensuite les principes de la recherche-action participative pour atteindre cet objectif et nous examinons les principales caractéristiques d'une recherche-action anticipatoire non coloniale dans le contexte des futurs de l'Afrique.
Résultats
Nous mettons en évidence les défis issus de la relation entre les efforts d'anticipation axés sur la recherche-action, la création d'une intelligence collective et la co-conception ( codesign ), dans le but d'encourager le processus de décolonisation. Cette démarche inclut des principes de conception, établit les bases pour un processus anticipatoire, potentiellement décolonial et envisage une possible réaction du système dominant à l’encontre de ce processus de décolonisation.
Implications/limitations
Il s’agit d’un travail conceptuel, qui ne fournit pas d’éléments testés sur le terrain. Toutefois, nous espérons que cela constituera un apport permettant de concevoir des méthodologies qui préviendront la colonisation du futur lors de la participation à des activités de recherche tournées vers les futurs en Afrique et ailleurs.
Originalité/valeur
Nous proposons une approche intégrale de la colonisation du futur, comme renouvellement d’une question ancienne. Nous articulons également cette démarche autour d’une réflexion sur la nature de ce que pourrait être une recherche-action anticipatoire décoloniale.
... In his analysis of the confluence between action research and futures studies., Ramos (2006: 3) identifies five characteristics of action research that suggest action research is a tool for decolonising research: 1. It generates "practical being and action for human betterment". ...
... It operates with "a democratic ethos, which aims to critique power relations, address grievances of marginalised groups and achieve local empowerment in the face of entrenched institutionalised power". Ramos (2006) identified several futures studies with at least implicit references to action research by known practitioners, such as Bell, Bezold, Dator or Schultz. A few years later, action research was identified as one type of participatory futures methods (Gidley et al., 2009). ...
The Capacity to Decolonise is an IDRC research project at the intersection of futures studies, decolonial theory and participatory action research. The present research document introduces the relevance of 1) adopting a capacity-based approach to futures in a context where the images of the future and the ability to create them remain strongly affected by coloniality, and 2) the clarification of design principles that it entails.
The present document figures in IDRC 2020-2029 research results.
... It requires a participatory position rather than a contemplative one. This first corollary resonates with recent theoretical and methodological efforts by List (2006) and Ramos (2006) to apply the principles of action research to futures studies. Secondly, because the distant future is impossible to predict and only the imminent future can be sensed, there is a premium on the agility of agents in a given situation. ...
... As one anonymous reviewer pointed out, we should beware of the risk of "boxing" in futures studies: whereas some futures thinking resonates well with the Chinese themes developed in this paper, we should emphasize that much also does not. For recent metatheoretical discussions of the complex history and internal epistemological, ontological, and methodological diversity of future studies, see Ahlquist and Rhisiart, 2015;Erik Karlsen et al., 2010;Fuller and Loogma, 2009;Hines and Gold, 2013;Kuosa, 2011;Liebl and Schwarz, 2010;Marien, 2010;Miller, 2011;Morgan, 2011;Nelson, 2010;Öner, 2010;Patokorpi and Ahvenainen, 2009;Ramos, 2006Ramos, , 2010Roth and Kaivo-Oja, 2016;Samet, 2010;Sardar, 2010;Son, 2015;and Van der Helm, 2009. ...
This article provides an analysis of the problematic of foresight in traditional Chinese thought, articulating it with current developments in the epistemology of futures studies, planning theory, and strategic management. It is argued that in Chinese thought the answer to the question " Can the future be predicted? " depends on the forecasting horizon: whereas the immediate future can be sensed and taken advantage of by immersing oneself in the evolving situation, the remote future is fundamentally unpredictable. These dual answers are entrenched in discussions of what constitutes wisdom, opening up productive spaces of encounter between the problematic of foresight and the problematic of wisdom. https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2018.22(3).00A35
... Expert knowledge plays a key role in foresight studies. However, Inayatullah (2002) and Ramos (2002 Ramos ( , 2006) ask for a broader participation in future studies, where as many people as possible are involved in the most meaningful way so that capacity for foresight is not only reserved for " experts " . Action research can be used in foresight studies in order to gain both practitioners and experts knowledge created in a mutual and interactive process. ...
... Some attempts to converge the methodologies of action research and foresight studies have been made; One example being Anticipatory Action Learning (e.g. Inayatullah, 2002; Stevenson, 2002), which has been described as the most successful attempt to bridge the two fields (Ramos, 2006). According to Stevenson (2002) Anticipatory Action Learning is " action research modified for foresight " . ...
In this paper, based on action research in three case projects, we look into the future of demand driven control concepts for companies in commodity supply chains. The paper describes the development of control concepts from its origin of two-bin based systems up to today's advanced computer based concepts. Future control concepts based on access to real-time information is suggested. A clear trend today is that control concepts are becoming more advanced, automated and intelligent, due to the increasing complexity of the manufacturing environment and increasing customer demand for customised products. In future companies need to become faster, more flexible and more responsive, and the possibilities to meet these requirements are given by innovations in ICT and data capturing technologies such as RFID. The change towards sense-and-respond supply chains requires however a deeper transition than just integration of RFID-captured data in existing processes. New demand driven control concepts are needed.
... Grounded in a transcendental realism that discerns 'reality as both a projection of human imagination and a concrete structure' (Evely et al., 2008,Table 2), the cases recognize that socio-ecological systems are complex, adaptive, reflexive and co-evolutionary, and thus that knowledge is contingent (Miller et al., 2008 ). The theoretical framework proposed is informed by resilience thinking , and the embedded conception of cyclical learning (Holling, 1990) is enriched by action-research advances applied to futures studies (Ramos, 2006). Following a post normal science epistemology (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1994 ), the management of uncertainty and the 'extension of research to peer community' are in the iterative learning framework that is proposed. ...
... The two cases provide examples of scepticism, inability and resistance to participation . Critical and flexible participatory action-research requires an ability to constantly reframe the problem depending on the relevant stakeholders involved, a capacity to respond to changing needs and priorities over space and time and the ability to create opportunities for 'exercising agency' (Ramos, 2006). In addition, creating 'shadow' spaces for learning, dialogue and alliances, beyond the institutionalization of participation, may influence a transformation of local conflicts. ...
This paper contributes to the emerging debate on participatory modelling at the core of adaptive action research. We compare and reflect upon lessons learned from two projects in very different bio-physical and socio-economic contexts, the UK and Nicaragua, and outline a shared theoretical and methodological framework to assist researchers and local stakeholders to jointly assess, monitor and adapt to climatic and other changes. We discuss opportunities and obstacles, specifically: (1) incorporating uncertainty and surprises; (2) combining epistemologies; (3) dealing with representativeness and power dynamics; (4) creating opportunities for improving stakeholders' agency; and (5) facilitating dialogue and negotiation by using models as heuristics. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of dealing with unavoidable trade-offs when engaging in participatory and interdisciplinary research in complex and uncertain decision-making contexts. The participatory modelling experiences show that stakeholders' involvement throughout the process, epistemological plurality, flexibility and sensitivity to context-dependent socio-cultural processes need to be considered by researchers who wish to enhance the adaptive capacity of the communities they work with. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.
... Foresight is best used to determine novel business and fresh customer's base (Ramos, 2006). The tools of foresight have amplified the correspondence of business sectors (Godet, 2001(Godet, , 2008. ...
... The foresight towards tomorrow sees through the lens of today (Dator, 1998). The future we are yet to see is principally based on our actions of present (Ramos, 2006). To stay relevant, sustainable and resilient in a fastpaced business environment, it is important to stay innovative to match the pace of change in the business environment (Heijden, 2002;Van de Ven et al., 1999). ...
... Action research builds upon a long-established process-oriented approach to science that aims at "the transformation of power relationships in the direction of greater democracy" (Greenwood, Whyte, and Harkavy 1993). Action research, in general, can be understood as the collaborative production of scientifically and socially relevant knowledge, transformative action, and new social relations through a participatory process (Bradbury and Reason 2003;Dick 2004;Ramos 2006) I was considered an experienced researcher on homework and how and why schools developed no-homework policies or inclusive-homework policies. Therefore, I was engaged by the Moss municipality through an arrangement for the local development of competence, in schools called DEKOMP. ...
... It operates with "a democratic ethos, which aims to critique power relations, address grievances of marginalised groups and achieve local empowerment in the face of entrenched institutionalised power". Ramos (2006) further identified several futures studies with at least implicit references to action research by known practitioners, such as Bell, Bezold, Dator or Schultz. A few years later, action research was identified as one type of participatory futures methods (Gidley et al., 2009). ...
This article is on open access until December 31, 2022 at https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-11-2021-0225/full/html
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to nurture reflections on the colonization of the future in the present with a particular focus on Africa. This paper aims at exploring how participatory research and particularly anticipatory action research can contribute to a decolonising process.
Design/methodology/approach
Considering the future as a public good, this paper develops a reflection on the colonization processes that can turn it into a club or a private good. This paper mobilizes the notions of participatory knowledge production and local action research as a way to decolonize the future and empower imagination. This paper revisits the tenets of participatory action research as a means to achieve this objective and discusses the main features of a non-colonial anticipatory action research in the context of African futures.
Findings
This paper highlights the challenges associated with connecting anticipatory endeavours focusing on action research, the creation of collective intelligence and co-design, with the intention of encouraging the decolonisation process. It includes design principles and anticipates a possible process of counter-decolonization.
Research limitations/implications
This is a conceptual paper, which does not provide field-tested evidence. Yet, the authors hope it serves as an input enabling to design methodologies that will prevent the colonisation of the future when engaging in future-oriented research activities in Africa and elsewhere.
Originality/value
This paper provides an integral approach to the colonisation of the future, as a renewed old question. This paper also connects this process with a reflection on the nature of what could be non-colonizing anticipatory action research.
... We also aim to inspire researchers and changemakers to explore existing participatory futures methodologies to build new narratives in the form of fiction as a way to engage citizens in taking up an active role in their city. Co-developing new narratives, authentic visions, and intelligent strategies allows for a sense of natural ownership and commitment, which can lead to collective foresight with an understanding of shared challenges and a common vision for change, and can call forth commitment and action (Ramos 2006(Ramos , 2017. Furthermore, the integration of experiential methods throughout the co-creation process -using techniques from improvisation, play and meditation, enhances embodied, multi-modal, and holistic explorations of futures (Kuzmanovic and Gaffney 2017). ...
On the 23rd of January 2020, a radio talk show of the future, 20:30 Bruxsels Talks, took place in Brussels. With guests and artists from the year 2030, it discussed how the transition to a climate-proof city had happened since 2019. In this article, we present and frame the development of the show and provide insight into the participative creation process. The radio show exemplifies (a) how future fiction can be used as a tool to evoke change and (b) how the participatory development of futurist fiction can be used as a method to trigger imagination and conversation on what citizens want for our cities. We argue that there is an opportunity for researchers to explore fiction as a method, as a format and as a space. Foresight practitioners who want to create engaging stories may find inspiration in the body of knowledge of arts-based research and the arts.
Note: This article should be read in conjunction with 20:30 Bruxsels Talks: A Script for a Future Fiction Radio Show, in this issue, written by the same author team and published in this volume.
... Through more citizen representation at critical project phases, and through process that enable citizens to shape a project's final products, citizen perspectives are given greater agency in follow up processes that utilize those products (policy-making, urban planning, etc.). This understanding of participation is also reflected in literature in participatory design [30,62] and can be tied to the development of Action Research theory and method [34,54,55,72]. That participatory processes still grapple with issues relating to legitimation [63] (and representation with respect to "future generations" [49]), we view participatory foresight defined in this manner as a means to broaden the scope of possible futures on behalf of those generations while expanding procedural legitimacy in the present. ...
The urgency of current social challenges is driving new approaches to framing and funding research, development, and innovation. The “mission-oriented” approach framing the EU’s New Horizons funding program is the latest institutional response to the pressing needs of large system transformations we are facing. We view the likely targets of mission-oriented programs as dynamic entities requiring both adaptive, inclusive responses, and anticipatory exploration. We demonstrate how participatory foresight methods provide an essential forum and process for the expression of plural, socio-technological imaginaries. As citizens and other stakeholder groups have demonstrated their myriad capacities to contribute to research and innovation agenda-setting processes in future-oriented citizen dialogs, we argue that such methods are the essential compliment to the mission-oriented framework coming into play. Participatory foresight engages citizens in critical thinking and creative activities to articulate the evolution of socio-technological issues over an extended time horizon, seeking diverse perspectives on what goals and priorities will come to define “missions.” Utilizing outputs from two recent projects, we argue that participatory foresight methods can play an essential role in bridging citizen needs with policy requirements, and will increase the reflexivity of innovation systems that invest the needed time and resources into exploring the depth of multi-actor interests and intersections. Finally, we outline possible impact pathways demonstrating how these “bottom-up” contributions could be integrated into the development of challenge-led innovation priorities.
... What this underlines for futures researchers is the importance of participatory and democratic approaches towards futures projects. Building on the early work of researchers such as Jungk and Müllert (1987) and Masini (1993), foresight and futures practice have a long history of developing participatory and inclusive methodologies, from action research, to more ethnographic work with small communities, to large-scale web-based projects, to design fiction and speculative research (e.g., Duggan, Lindley, & McNicol, 2017;Gidley, Fien, Smith, Thomsen, & Smith, 2009;Helm, 2007;Kaltenborn, Thomassen, & Linnell, 2012;Loveridge & Street, 2005;Raford, 2015;Ramos, 2006;Shaw et al., 2009). A central tenet of futures practice is that the participation of people with an interest in the futures under examination makes the final outcomes stronger, and that, conversely, the lack of such participation diminishes their quality. ...
There is widespread recognition within futures studies that it is vital to engage with the past when thinking about the future. The disciplines of futures studies and history have much in common: historians have often been concerned with the future, and researchers in futures studies and foresight have noted the importance of working with history. Green (2012) suggests that ‘thinking with history’ is a valuable approach for futures researchers. In this paper, however, I argue that ‘thinking with heritage’ offers another approach towards engaging with the past, and one that is better suited to some kinds of futures work. I distinguish between two kinds of future narrative. ‘Instrumental futures’ (Michael, 2000) are concerned with using ideas of the future to further unexamined present-day interests: they are abstract and exchangeable, being removed from any particular social context. In contrast, ‘lived futures’, following Adam and Groves (2007), are concerned with particular places and groups, depending not just on future imaginaries at large in society but also the material and affective aspects of the social relations within which these groups are embedded. I suggest that futures research that aims to have a positive social impact should concern itself with recognising and developing lived futures over instrumental futures, and that thinking with heritage – engaging with the past through the interests and values of particular groups – is well-suited to supporting this. The argument draws on the different ways in which time is represented in these different ways of engaging with pasts and futures. Instrumental futures, in common with historicised accounts of the past, make use of a universal ‘empty time’ to sequence events or project extrapolations forward. Lived futures, alongside heritage, work with a ‘thick present’ in which past, present and future are interwoven through particular subjectivities. For futures researchers with an interest in further understanding and developing futures that are connected to the cares and interests of particular communities, I suggest that engaging with these communities’ heritage would be a practical way of ensuring that their work remains meaningful.
... A recent example of using Delphi in IS to evaluate the risks of social media is presented in Di Gangi et al. (2018). Another perspective of "futures as tools" can be found in its relation with research methods that are widely used in the IS field, for example, action research (Ramos 2006), or ethnography (Olla and Choudrie 2009). ...
This paper argues in favor of a deeper understanding of the importance of futures in information systems (IS) research and proposes an initial set of guidelines for the inclusion, in IS publications, of an optional section devoted to the discussion of futures. The proposal was inspired by reflections on the nature of disruptive innovations and was grounded on a cross disciplinary literature review in the areas of IS, management, and computer science. The proposal includes examples of preferable futures and a discussion of their exploration. The anticipation of sustainable futures has the potential to (1) enrich the debate in IS research, (2) contribute to the development of preferable futures, and (3) create knowledge bases of scenarios and trajectories for such development. As far as theory is concerned, the paper advances the incorporation of futures in IS research. For the practice of the discipline, the paper proposes an additional dimension for the publication of impactful research that takes into account the needs of today's managers, namely those who deal with uncertain environments.
... In this regard, Futures Studies (FS) and scenario analysis promise to offer unique perspective. As a strategy discipline, FS is frequently used to delineate arriving at ideal futures through back casting (Robinson, 1990, Slaughter R. A., 1997, Cook, Inayatullah, Burgman, Sutherland, & and Wintle, 2014, as a way of providing strategic direction, as well as principal learning and insight (Ramos, 2006, Inayatullah, 2006 Here, scenario analysis would also yield a different and unique outcome compared to a descriptive model, because it not only considers the relevant factors at play, but also does it in a future context. In this sense, FS may offer a unique perspective on business development. ...
The study which comprises of futures studies and scenario analysis, aims to investigate the future scenario of entrepreneurship responsible for significant GDP growth (Greater than 10%) in South Africa. Focusing on aspects such as: social and culture, leadership, management and organization, labour and skills, economics, trade and politics, markets, technology, and infrastructure and environment. It investigates and reflects on whether Successful Entrepreneurship (SE) is indeed possible, what needs to change to attain SE, what is overlooked when it comes to business development, and what is obstructing SE.
The research was conducted using qualitative research methods focusing on professionals close to entrepreneurship. Rather than focus groups or Delphi studies, the insights of entrepreneurship professionals were gathered using semi-structured interviews.
The study found that majority of respondents believe that successful entrepreneurship is indeed possible, but it would require a concerted and collaborative effort from all stakeholders, primarily the Public, Private sector and entrepreneurial experts to ensure that the right focus is provided, critical issues and challenges realistically elevated to everyone’s attention and practical, simple solutions created and aligned on with the backing of the right technology, policies and regulation.
... The BC use cases analyzed in this study were developed using the qualitative anticipatory action learning (AAL) method [17]- [19]. AAL is a future-oriented, crossdisciplinary, practical deployment-oriented method, utilized in particular to address the management of disruptions in the business environment [20], organizational collaborative learning [21], and in developing future scenarios [22] [23]. The use cases assessed in this research paper were created in scenario workshops coordinated by the BOND project [15] in 2017. ...
Before the implementation of a solution, it is cost efficient and practical to be able to evaluate and analyze the expected value of use cases. Especially, this is emphasized in blockchain use cases, which typically have a wide business ecosystem and possibly disruptive business models. This paper presents two blockchain use case value evaluations and results. The IoT use cases were selected from two different industry segments: telecommunications-oriented 5G network slice brokering and the energy industry-related internal electricity allocation in a housing society. The use case value was assessed by applying a resource configuration framework and 4C – commerce, context, content and connection – business model typology against blockchain and smart contracts characteristics and capabilities. The results derived from the data collected from the expert workshops proved the expected value of the use cases, and in general, the feasibility of blockchain technology for facilitating various value-creating resource configuration processes was shown. Furthermore, the resource configuration framework proved to be a valuable theoretical approach for analyzing and developing also the blockchain-enabled novel use cases and business models. According to the findings, further development of the framework is proposed with an introduced novel decentralized resource configuration prototype that can replace predominant platform-based business models.
... CLA attempts to create understanding by bringing these four areas together and unpacking them. Action learning: Ramos (2006) notes that action learning (AL) is a learning process carried out by asking a group of contributors questions; it is not a collection of expert opinions. Images of the future are created in a collaborative setting. ...
... 178) in farming communities in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. They outline three programs that demonstrate a process of local engagement with the involved actors, using an action research (Ramos, 2006;Stevenson, 2006) approach. However, while local actions were noted as having been implemented in response to the exercises, the article states that, "it is too early for a thorough assessment of evidence of these local organizations as key players in a societal change shaped by the understanding of future The approach termed "critical scenario method" (CSM) (Cairns, Śliwa, & Wright, 2010;Wright & Cairns, 2011) is designed to require consideration of the impacts of each of a set of scenarios on the "broad" (Freeman & Reed, 1983) stakeholder constituency. ...
In this article, we consider prospects for long‐term impact from scenario projects, specifically for sustained positive change. We outline scenario methods intended to actively engage scenario development team members who will be directly impacted by the “focal issue” of the scenario exercise, in particular those who are remote and by and large excluded from the central decision‐making processes of the powerful. We consider possibilities for building capacity for them to envisage and enact alternative futures for themselves and their communities. However, we see a need to consider how current powerful actors might respond to the wishes and actions of less powerful stakeholders, positing that the potential for action by these less powerful groups may be disrupted by the rationality of the more powerful, where any intended action is against the latter's interests. We argue that understanding and appreciating issues of power and rationality are central to how such participatory approaches might elicit coordinated and articulated action in response to positive scenarios. We discuss this issue by reference to contemporary interpretations of Aristotelian phronēsis, or “practical wisdom.” We outline steps involved in enacting an augmented scenario model that responds to this critique.
... The cases confirm the usefulness of applying action research in complex futures processes (see Ramos 2006;Stevenson 2002 andList 2006). They also link to design-driven futures work pursued by academics and consultants. ...
This article proposes that creativity and criticality not only can but should be entangled and elevated in participatory futuring engagements. Selected concepts from creativity theory and critical futures studies are applied to develop a set of futuring games through action research. We claim that participatory processes designed to entangle and elevate creativity and criticality produce more novel and varied ideas that better fit the purposes of futures studies. This article offers four arguments for combining creativity and criticality in participatory futuring engagements. First, due to complexity and uncertainty, the future is ultimately unknowable and requires tools to probe the unknown. Second, novelty is difficult to achieve in practice while creativity and criticality can help overcome these challenges. Third, discontinuities are the main sources of futures that are most radically different from the present and will have the biggest impact. Fourth, creativity and criticality support the rigorous imagining required for exploring and discovering new possible futures. This article analyzes three experimentations in entangling and elevating creativity and criticality in game-based futuring, stemming from Causal Layered Analysis. Based on these examples, we demonstrate that creativity and criticality, when combined, help people break through the limitations of current understanding, reveal approaching tipping points, and find the “unvisited cavities” through rhizomatic knowledge creation. However, there remain challenges in evaluating how well various participatory designs support creativity and criticality in practice. Context-sensitive evaluation tools and open sharing of outcomes are needed to develop participation design principles capable of supporting creativity and criticality in participatory futuring.
... For example, future gaming of Futures might be enhanced by improved sensory or brain stimulation for creating a "futures" file of a remembered activity that has not taken place. These scenarios might be incorporated into future online games (Ramos 2006), such as the Foresight Engine (Dunagan 2012), or even role-play (Fuller and Loogma 2009) allowing earlier forecasting of disruption and possible causal factors (Rhemann 2017). Augmented predictive algorithms may add AI to human decision making, such as with self-driving cars allowing predictive information being represented in augmented reality settings or direct stimulation of the brain regions responsible for activities (Pezzulo et al. 2016). ...
Strides in Neuroscience, coupled with Futures Studies, have the potential to complement one another in exploring how the brain thinks about the future and how we might anticipate disruption. This article explores disruption through anticipatory thinking and the lenses of both Futures and Neuroscience in bringing a cross-disciplinary approach to understanding how we think about futures and how Futures and Neuroscience might join forces to create broader insights and adapt futurist toolsets leading to better foresight models and data collection methods.
... Action learning Ramos (2006) points out that the action research approach is an exercise of agency -in consciously shaping the futures we want to live in. These emerging practices embody the "future as principle of present action", and bring together these two versions of social change. ...
This study investigates how entrepreneurs and innovators engage the future, and it reflects on how strategic foresight (also called futures studies) can contribute to innovation and entrepreneurship. The literature emphasizes the importance of planning for the future, but not much attention has been given to how entrepreneurs view, forecast and incorporate the future, and how this influences their innovation and creativity.
The study found that entrepreneurs are disconnected from the future, and do not take it seriously. The future is mostly left to unfold, and it appears as a surprise. Entrepreneurs use simple methods to engage the future, and their understanding of it is vague. There is a lack of leadership and coordination around the future, and very little intervention around the future.
Entrepreneurs recognize a general connection between the future and innovation, but they fail to see the relationship between innovation and futures studies. Futures studies are central to innovation, especially radical innovation, but entrepreneurs do not exploit it. Incremental innovation is predominant, and this leads to the conclusion that entrepreneurship is dysfunctional, to the extent that radical innovation is an important part of entrepreneurship and futures shaping. The study essentially surfaces a number of obscure philosophical positions regarding the relationship between entrepreneurship, innovation and the future.
... The 2012 IPCC report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation discusses how the dynamic notion of adaptation calls for learning as an iterative process in order to build resilience and enhance adaptive capacity now, rather than targeting adaptation in the distant future. Action research and learning provide a powerful complement to resilience thinking, as they focus explicitly on iterative or cyclical learning through reflection of successes and failures in experimental action, transfer of knowledge between learning cycles, and the next learning loop that will lead to new types of action(List 2006;Ramos 2006). Critical reflection is paramount to triple-loop learning; it also constitutes the key pillar of double-loop learning, or the questioning of what works and why that is fundamental to shifts in reasoning and behavior(Kolb and Fry 1975;Argyris and Schön 1978;Keen, Brown, and Dyball 2005) Allowing time for reflection in this iterative learning process is important because it provides the necessary space to develop and test theories and strategies under ever-changing conditions. ...
... This research approach builds around an interactive, collaborative process that relies strongly on conversation among and empowerment of a variety of participants, from multiple perspectives, involved in the research project. Conversation allows meaning from a range of different worldviews to be shared and negotiated for studying, theorizing, and otherwise engaging the future for helping to create it [54]. ...
Spectrum scarcity forces mobile network operators (MNOs) providing mobile broadband services to develop new business models that address spectrum sharing. It engages MNOs into coopetitive relationship with incumbents. Licensed Shared Access (LSA) concept complements traditional licensing and helps MNOs to access new spectrum bands on a shared basis. This paper discusses spectrum sharing with LSA from business perspective. It describes how coopetition and business model are linked conceptually, and identifies the influence of coopetition on future business models in LSA. We develop business models for dominant and challenger MNOs in traditional licensing and future with LSA. The results indicate that coopetition and business model concepts are linked via value co-creation and value co-capture. LSA offers different business opportunities to dominant and challenger MNOs. Offering, value proposition, customer segments and differentiation in business models become critical in mobile broadband.
... Toward a Sustainable and Resilient Future action, transfer of knowledge between learning cycles, and the next learning loop that will lead to new types of action (List, 2006;Ramos, 2006). Referring to the learning processes described in Section 1.4.2, ...
Executive Summary
Actions that range from incremental steps to transformational changes are essential for reducing risk from weather and climate extremes (high agreement, robust evidence). [8.6, 8.7] Incremental steps aim to improve efficiency within existing technological, governance, and value systems, whereas transformation may involve alterations of fundamental attributes of those systems. The balance between incremental and transformational approaches depends on evolving risk profiles and underlying social and ecological conditions. Disaster risk, climate change impacts, and capacity to cope and adapt are unevenly distributed. Vulnerability is often concentrated in poorer countries or groups, although the wealthy can also be vulnerable to extreme events. Where vulnerability is high and adaptive capacity relatively low, changes in extreme climate and weather events can make it difficult for systems to adapt sustainably without transformational changes. Such transformations, where they are required, are facilitated through increased emphasis on adaptive management, learning, innovation, and leadership.
Evidence indicates that disaster risk management and adaptation policy can be integrated, reinforcing, and supportive – but this requires careful coordination that reaches across domains of policy and practice (high agreement, medium evidence). [8.2, 8.3, 8.5, 8.7] Including disaster risk management in resilient and sustainable development pathways is facilitated through integrated, systemic approaches that enhance capacity to cope with, adapt to, and shape unfolding processes of change, while taking into consideration multiple stressors, different prioritized values, and competing policy goals.
... Action research dates back to the early 20 th century (e.g. the work of John Dewey or Kurt Lewin), only later becoming known as mode-2 knowledge production and transdisciplinarity (Levin and Greenwood 2008). In general, action research can be understood as the collaborative production of scientifically and socially relevant knowledge, transformative action and new social relations through a participatory process (Reason and Bradbury 2008;Dick 2004;Bradbury and Reason 2003;Ramos 2006;Chandler and Torbert 2003). A rich research tradition, it has not been substantively linked to sustainability science (a start is being made by Miller 2013; Wiek et al. 2012a;van Kerkhoff 2013). ...
In sustainability science, the tension between more descriptive–analytical and more process-oriented
approaches is receiving increasing attention. The latter entails a number of roles for researchers, which have largely been neglected in the literature. Based on the rich tradition of action research and on a specific process-oriented approach to sustainability transitions (transition management), we establish an in-depth understanding of the activities and roles of researchers. This is done by specifying ideal-type roles that researchers take when dealing with key issues in creating and maintaining space for societal learning—a core activity in process-oriented approaches. These roles are change agent, knowledge broker, reflective scientist, self-reflexive scientist and process facilitator. To better understand these ideal-type roles,
we use them as a heuristic to explore a case of transition management in Rotterdam. In the analysis, we discuss the implications of this set of ideal-type roles for the selfreflexivity of researchers, role conflicts and potentials, and for the changing role of the researcher and of science in general.
... In cooperation with the county-municipality, the authors contributed in facilitating the process, while at the same time having the objectives to analyse and learn from the process. Thus, we took upon us the role of action-researchers, which represents both a strength and a challenge for the analyses (Macewan, 2008;Ramos, 2006;Saether, 2007). On the one hand, it is strength, as the study was a reciprocal process of learning between planners and researchers, being equal partners respecting each other's knowledge. ...
This article argues that regional planning is dominated by two conflicting discourses that have different principles of involvement: the discourse of partnerships and the discourse of broad participation. These discourses and principles are not easy to reconcile in practice. On the basis of studies in the literature and a comprehensive case study, this article discusses how these conflicting discourses in regional planning challenge democratic norms, and how this problem is dealt with by the regional political leadership. The article shows that the use of meta-governance strategies and broad arenas of participation might be used in this respect, for example, by constantly having a focus on maintaining democratic anchorage when partnerships are used in regional planning processes.
... Others encourage VAs geared towards social learning over risk and VAs alone (Yuen et al., 2012), collaborative knowledge production built into VAs (Romieu, Welle, Schneiderbauer, Pelling, & Vinchon, 2010;Weichselgartner & Kasperson, 2010), and future thinking, for instance through participatory scenario building or Climate and Development theatre, to prompt reflections on values, visions and tradeoffs (Tschakert & Dietrich, 2010). At the core of such learning is what Ramos (2006) calls an 'exercise of agency'. ...
Vulnerability assessments (VAs) are the dominant method to establish who and what is vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. Researchers and practitioners typically use VAs to measure material vulnerability in terms of unbalanced sets of assets and institutional vulnerability regarding socially differentiated access to rights and decision-making processes. However, as scholarship on vulnerability and adaptation aligns in a better manner with development and sustainability priorities and focuses more explicitly on interrelations between climate and global change, creative complementary approaches to understanding vulnerability are needed, both conceptually and methodologically. This article discusses the generational shifts of climate change VAs over the last 25 years, their achievements and blind spots. We note declining attention to broad structural and relational drivers of vulnerability and inequality, and an inadequate understanding of vulnerability dynamics which hampers forward-looking change processes. To remedy these blind spots, and based on the reflections on building adaptive capacity coupled with emergent debates on societal transformation, we propose a comprehensive framework for Inequality and Transformation Analyses. The framework, fusing previously fractured approaches, combines assessments of structural and relational drivers of inequalities and marginalization as well as possible solution spaces with reflective and relational opportunities for anticipatory learning and transformative change. It contributes to alternative framings for a more relational research agenda on social-ecological vulnerability and adaptation.
... This certainly challenges the organisational implementation of pro-active transformation. In response to this problem, rather recent approaches set forth to integrate futures studies with action research (Ramos 2006) in order to adopt and advance approaches of scenario planning for the context of system management and climate change adaptation (e.g. Biggs et al. 2007;Tschakert and Dietrich 2010). ...
Resilience theory has gained considerable prominence with regard to the management of social-ecological systems and more recently
climate change adaptation. Yet, how resilience is precisely understood, how its institutionalisation works and how organisations
can operationalise principles for achieving resilience often remains vague. Therefore, the paper explores how institutional
and organisational theory can enhance the understanding on resilience. Linking organisational institutionalism to resilience
theory, the paper analyses in particular how resilience thinking can diffuse and translate into organisational action, and
which challenges and barriers may exist. Empirical research on formal urban climate change adaptation in Vietnam is used to
explore the important role of distinctive institutional features in a given culture, region or sector for shaping this process.
It is argued that such context-specific institutional framework conditions are often underemphasised, thereby, hampering the
transferability as well as operationalisation and implementation of resilience propositions. Relevant aspects include epistemological,
ontological and normative dimensions. Linking the case study to neoinstitutional theory, recommendations are developed for
increasing the intercultural transferability of resilience thinking into organisational practices.
... By articulating an 'integrative foresight' I want to provide an explicit space in which to discuss what holism in futures means from my perspective. First, it is the practical marriage of action research traditions with futures inquiry [69]. The AR tradition provides the theoretical principles as well as a rich pool of practical examples and case studies that offer a general direction for what this means. ...
This article takes up the question of the various movements toward holism in futures inquiry. The Ken Wilber inspired integral futures, developed by Richard Slaughter and others, and put forth as the most comprehensive approach to-date, is critiqued and assessed. While Wilber's integral and the variant it has inspired in futures represent significant innovations, it also contains the tendency to un-necessarily close down, lock out or to sub-ordinate alternative conceptions of holism, what I term ‘Wilber-ism’. Wilber's ‘theory of everything’ and integral futures are analysed, re-assessed and re-situated in the context of the alternative approaches to holism that exist. What emerges is a rich view of potential genealogies and ontogenies as movements toward holism. One variant from the action research tradition, which I call ‘integrative foresight’, is put forward as an example of an alternative. The article concludes by proposing a process of dynamic dialogue between diverse conceptions of holism, which can at once honour the great diversity of approaches, while likewise continuing the journey of creating shared meaning and common understandings of the complex contexts in which futures inquiry works.
... A recent issue of the journal is devoted to action research and futures studies. José Ramos (2006a) is editor of the special edition, and also compares action research and futures studies (Ramos, 2006b). Sohail Inayatullah (2006) writes on anticipatory action research, a practical integration of the two disciplines. ...
This review of recent action research books covers the period from about mid-2004 to mid-2006, complementing an earlier review (Dick, 2004). After noting some important recent additions to the action research literature, I address the literature on several different applications of action research including education, community, participatory development, and organizations. There are briefer sections on other topics. Action research journals and special issues of other journals are also identified. Finally, I identify some themes and trends in the action research literature.
... Methodologically, an expression and understanding of the inter-action between knowledge and action and how one is shaped by the other in particular contexts is significant. This issue is wider than the use of anticipatory action learning methods (Ramos 2006) (Inayatullah 2006, .p658) but such methods are useful as a way of examining the relationship. ...
1 Summary Foresight is a broad term that covers different ways to think about the future. The COST Action 22: Foresight Methodologies - Exploring New Ways to Explore the Future was initiated in 2002 with the main objective to develop certain aspects of foresight methodology so as to ensure their systematic use and optimisation of benefits. This paper will discuss the general themes that have arisen from the Action. Foresight is a professional practice that supports significant decisions, and as such it needs to be more assured of its claims to knowledge (methodology). Foresight is practiced across many domains and is not the preserve of specialised 'futurists', or indeed of foresight specialists. However, the disciplines of foresight are not well articulated or disseminated across domains, leading to re-inventions and practice that does not make best use of experience in other domains. The maintenance of a 'futures' elite will not serve the cause of society in producing and responding to forward looks. While the above implies the necessity for evaluation and dissemination of foresight practice, this Action chose to focus on the modernisation of foresight methodology. The main finding in this respect was that foresight methodology lacks reflexivity. Reflexivity is a relatively modern epistemological position in the social sciences. Its position is, simply, that social knowledge, including the interpretation and use of scientific knowledge, is created through the interactions between people (discourses, language, social action etc.), and this process gives rise to changes in self-identify, interpretation of meaning, practice and anticipations of the future. The methodological development of foresight in COST A22 is firstly to empower the actors within the Action to make explicit, and reflect on, their implicit methodologies; secondly to begin to critique current practice from this perspective and thirdly, to begin to design foresight practice with greater reflexivity. The characterisation of a social constructionist approach was the aphorism, "from oracles to dialogue", used in the final conference, and indicating a move from 'given' expert-predicted futures to one in which futures are nurtured through the dialogue between "stakeholders", i.e. those with a stake in the future of the particular issue under study.
Purpose: Since futures studies was faced by the challenge of being established as a discipline, and many of futurists insisted on the necessity of this matter for futures studies, this research is to analyses disciplinary possibility of futures studies. Also, it is to determine its position between academic disciplines. Method: At first part of this research, analysing of satisfying disciplinary criteria by futures studies from epistemological, social, and organisaional approaches was used. At second part, position of futures studies between academic disciplines was determined through applying well-known disciplines categories. Findings: The results showed that futures studies include particular object of inquiry; body of accumulated specialist knowledge; specialized theories and concepts; various practical methods; scientific paradigms; shared discourse, language, peers, identity; and application in action. It was identified that futures studies due to its disciplinary capabilities, can be considered as a discipline and in disciplines categories, it is an applied and soft discipline and is posited in the broader domain of applied social sciences. Conclusion: While futures studies satisfies disciplinary criteria, it needs to be developed in two areas: first one is development of its philosophical and epistemological foundations, so that it exits from its baseless situation; second one is its academic development at different higher education levels so that to reach its real position in academy.
1. INTRODUCTION
The global economy has been shifted from an industrialized economy into knowledge economies (Drucker, 1993). Surviving and well-established enterprises for business models becoming compete in a so-called VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) belong with hyper-competition triggered by the ongoing growth enabled throughout information technology (Stewart et al., 2016:241). Unpredictable, triggered by the borderless digitalization in most sectors and unanticipated trends like the (COVID-19) crisis threatens institutions existentially where adapting to these economic environment climates through existing agility decides the organization's future (Semke and Tiberius, 2020).
In this regard, a study performed by Francescato and Aber (2015) reported that empowerment would provide the capacity to thrive potential, access information, access resources, encourage growth and creativity. Accordingly, its currency between practitioners can be highlighted by a CEO's opinions, who noted that “no vision, no strategy can be implemented without qualified and empowered staff” (Argyris, 1998:98). Besides, a paucity of studies has concentrated on foresight (Semke & Tiberius, 2020), which stated remain opaque. Therefore, to bridge this gap in research, the present study was conducted to investigate the effect of empowerment strategy on organizational foresight; hence, the findings outline that empowerment and foresight aimed to renew organizations to overcome future trends.
Accordingly, there are numerous arguments on why organizational foresight should be taken into consideration extensively. Foresight and foresight approaches are well-known fields and have been practically implemented for a long time. Interestingly, organizational foresight as a theory is very recent and emphasizes incorporating these forward-looking approaches into strategic decision-making. In this manner, organizational foresights give insights into firms’ operational environment such as opportunities, barriers, identify, creativity, and bring new competitive space. The existing literature is notwithstanding fragmented and not sufficiently completed. Hence, the academic area is poorly structured (Iden et al., 2016:88). Therefore, numerous scholars and researchers suggest conducting further studies on foresight, as Amstéus (2011) recommends conducting a descriptive survey study on foresight with its dimensions in various contexts, such as in the field of organizational foresight. Consequently, to close this gap, the current study will address this issue through adopting descriptive methods and selecting empowerment strategy as an effective tool for organizational foresight, as Fayol (1949:43) stated, "if foresight is not the whole of management at least it is an essential part of it."
In this regard, throughout the observing to the actuality of the higher educational institutions at the Duhok Governorate, particularly within the University of Duhok (UoD), reveals that they have foresight issues in the organizational matter due to justifications beyond the will of the organizations along with limited applying of empowerment strategy and foresight activities at the University. On the other side, it's necessary to empower educational institutions over faculties and universities due to the enormous importance of practical implementation. Besides, empowerment is also the contemporary strategy for increasing managers' and academics staff's foresight practices, as better empowering principles that will be reflected in anticipating the accurate future of educational organizations. As a result, the study problem can formulate through the following key questions: “Is there a significant relationship between empowerment strategy and organizational foresight (at the targeted sample's faculties)?” and “Is there a significant impact of empowerment strategy on organizational foresight (at the targeted sample's faculties)?”
In the light of the problem statement and questions, the study objectives are firstly to identify the nature of the relationship between empowerment strategy and organizational foresight at the faculties of the targeted sample. Secondly; to evaluate the impact of empowerment strategy on organizational foresight at the faculties of the targeted sample.
Il s’agit de la synthèse d’une thèse de prospective qui a pour titre original « Knowing and Governing Super-Wicked Problems: A Social Analysis of Low-Carbon Scenarios ». Celle-ci a été réalisée entre octobre 2014 et avril 2019 sous la direction du Prof. Tom Bauler au sein du Centre d’Études du Développement Durable de l’Université libre de Bruxelles grâce à un financement du Fonds national de la recherche scientifique (FRS-FNRS).
Cette synthèse a été soumise le 15 juillet 2022 dans le cadre de l’appel à candidatures de l'édition 2022 du Prix de thèses francophones de prospective organisé par la Fondation 2100 et l’Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie.
The heuristic versatility of foresight is increasingly positioning this anticipatory instrument as a key resource to promote more responsible research and innovation practices. In a context where foresight’s multiple heuristic potential is sometimes wrapped up in a promissory rhetoric that could lead to its being taken for granted, this article underlines the need to understand the emergence of these heuristics as being dependent on how foresight’s dynamics unfold. By acknowledging the existence of more “open” or “closed” forms of foresight (which in turn can articulate more “open” or “closed” anticipations), the article argues that the degree of “openness/closure” of foresight activities is constituted during the ex-ante, ex-dure and ex-post processes, and according to the relations underlying their constructive dynamics. The main conclusion reached is that a pre-condition for foresight practices to become “instruments for” responsible innovation is to make them “subjects of” responsibility simultaneously. This involves monitoring the socio-epistemic relations whereby foresight practices are designed and executed, as well as monitoring how their emergent heuristics are translated into action.
آیندهپژوه ی حوزهای است که موضوعات گوناگونی را در بر م یگیرد و علی رغم تفاوتهای متعددی که
با اقدامپژوه ی دارد، م یتوان در برخی زمینههای سیاسی، سازمانی، فردی، جهان ی مشترکاتی بین این دو
مشاهده نمو د. در این راستا پس از بررسی نقاط اشتراک و افتراق آیندهپژوه ی و اقدامپژوه ی، مطالعات انجام
شده در این زمینه بازبینی شده و تلاق ی آیند هپژوه ی و اقدامپژوه ی مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. بر این اساس
با ارزیابی فرایندهای بنیادین موجود در حوزه تلاق ی آیندهپژوه ی و اقدامپژوه ی، جنبههای این تلاق ی در قالب
توجه بر تغییر اجتماعی، توانمندسازی، گرایش بهسوی کل افراد و انسانی شدن، رو شهای کسب اطلاع و
اخلاق معرفی م یشوند و در نتیجه تبیین م یشود اگرچه آیند هپژوهی و اقدامپژوه ی هستی شناسی خاص خود
را دارند و منحصر به فرد م یباشند، د ر عین حال این دو نشاندهند ه دورهها ی مختلف در یک سفر مشتر ک
هستند .
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate how futures concepts may further existing regenerative sustainability thinking.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper reviews existing regenerative fields, including regenerative design, regenerative development and regenerative sustainability as alternatives to conventional sustainability practice. It considers futures concepts that may deepen regenerative thinking and practice to develop a regenerative futures conceptual model.
Findings
This paper demonstrates how regenerative fields and futures studies have the capacity to reciprocally inform one another and builds upon this relationship through the development of a regenerative futures conceptual model.
Originality/value
This paper makes a number of theoretical contributions. First, it demonstrates how regenerative fields and futures thinking may reciprocally inform one another and, subsequently, enrich regenerative practice. Second, by drawing from futures thinking, it questions and ultimately lengthens notions of reality and time from a regenerative perspective. Finally, through the proposal of a regenerative futures conceptual model, it offers an alternative lens to analyse human behaviours and their associated impacts. In this way, it introduces a theoretical model that is focused on deep individual and collective transformation and a starting point for future research and refinement.
Blockchain technologies can be used to develop a lot of applications which are similar to the internet. The information recorded on a blockchain can take on any form, whether it is denoting a transfer of money, ownership, a transaction, someone's identity, an agreement between two parties, or even how much electricity a light bulb has used. It can be done by getting conformation from several devices, such as a computer, on the network. No one can remove or alter the data without the knowledge and permission of those who made that record, as well as the wider community. Rather than keeping information in one central point, as is done by traditional recording methods, multiple copies of the same data are stored in different locations and on different devices on the network, such as computers or printers, which is called a peer‐to‐peer network. If one point of storage is damaged or lost, multiple copies remain safe and secure elsewhere, and if one piece of information is changed without the agreement of the rightful owners, there are countless other examples in existence where the information is true, making the false record obsolete.
Blockchain owes its name to the manner in which it works and how data is stored, which means the information is packed into blocks which link to form a chain with similar blocks. Normally, each block contains the data it is recording. It will also include a digital signature linked to the account that made the recording and a unique identifying link, in the form of a hash (think of it as a digital fingerprint), to the previous block in the chain. It is this link that makes it impossible for any of the information to be altered or for a block to be inserted between two existing blocks. In order to do so, all following blocks would need to be edited too. As a result, each block strengthens the previous block and the security of the entire blockchain because it means more blocks would need to be changed to tamper with any information. When combined, all of these create an unquestionable storage of information, one that cannot be disputed or declared to be untrue.
The field of Futures Studies has been sculpted for 2500 years. Heraclitus, Plato, Aristotle, Parmenides, from ancient times, in addition to Jacques Bernoulli, Von Clausewitz and Von Moltke and many other authors have an invaluable intellectual contribution to the development of the field of Future Studies. The developments during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries showed multiples authors with differential theoretical and empirical proposals, but they shared the notion of collective construction of the future and the social action as key issues in the field. However, at the present time the field of Futures Studies must introduce new epistemological and ontological elements to understand the new phenomena that should be studied. Therefore, this chapter hopes to help the reader recognize the conductive threads and milestones that have shaped and will give a new shape to the field of Future Studies.
Purpose
This article raises a question of how to assess the effectiveness of foresight activity. Among the various assessments of foresight activity, we explore how to develop and assess an individual's abilities in relation to foresight activity. More specifically, we suggest a possible metric for assessing how foresight activity can help individuals cultivate self-efficacy toward postulated futures. This article proposes that researchers and practitioners working in foresight can leverage the concept of self-efficacy toward futures to develop a method of evaluating foresight activities on an individual level.
Design/methodology/approach
In order to assess the concept of self-efficacy toward futures, this research identifies the factors that could create a possible metric of self-efficacy with respect to various futures on an individual level. For this study, citizens living in Korea participated in a futures studies program, where we measured and analyzed to what extent participatory foresight activities could help these individuals perceive their own self-efficacy toward futures. The changes in the participants’ attitudes were measured by conducting the survey before and after the program.
Findings
Based on the literature review and a survey, we crafted a potential self-efficacy in relation to a scale of futures, which consists of four subscales: (1) an ability to shape new meanings, (2) an ability to challenge the status quo, (3) an ability to make a decision and put it into action, and (4) an ability to learn something new by cooperating with others. These abilities are believed to be relevant elements to prepare for, adapt to, and evolve with social changes. This article also utilizes the possible metric to assess the effectiveness of foresight activity in Korea and argues that foresight activity helps Korean individuals perceive self-efficacy towards postulated futures.
Originality/value
Researchers attempted to answer the question of what foresight activities are generally useful to laypersons. We propose that perceiving self-efficacy toward futures is one of the efficacies that foresight pursues. Our endeavor to create a metric to assess the effectiveness of foresight attempts to identify which capabilities can be developed through participation in foresight activities.
This paper presents the theory and practice of the Futures Action Model (FAM). FAM has been in development for over a decade, in a number of contexts and iterations. It is a creative methodology that uses a variety of concepts and tools to guide participants through the conception and modeling of enterprises, services, social innovations and projects in the context of emerging futures. It is used to generate strategic options that people can utilise to build opportunities for value creation as they move into the future. This paper details examples in its development, and provides theoretical and practical guidelines for educators and business facilitators to use the FAM system in their own workplaces.
This paper presents business models for mobile network operators (MNOs) in the new Licensed Shared Access (LSA) concept. The LSA concept allows spectrum sharing between an incumbent spectrum user and an LSA licensee under the supervision of the regulator with rules and conditions that guarantee predictable quality of service (QoS) levels to all involved spectrum users. This paper summarizes the LSA concept and its application to the mobile broadband where an MNO shares spectrum from another type of incumbent spectrum user such as military or programme making and special events (PMSE) services which corresponds to the industry driven Authorised Shared Access (ASA) concept. The paper highlights the importance of developing viable business models for the new spectrum sharing concepts as they need to provide clear benefits to the key stakeholders to be adopted in real life. The paper depicts the evolution path of business model theories and focuses on a recent action-oriented business modeling approach. This approach is applied to the mobile broadband using the LSA concept to derive business models for MNOs for accessing new LSA bands. Separate business models are derived for dominating and challenger MNOs whose market shares and amounts of exclusive spectrum license differ significantly and will face different business opportunities arising from LSA. To assess the transformation coming with the LSA concept, business models are first developed for the current situation with exclusively licensed spectrum bands. New business models are then developed for the introduction of the new shared LSA bands. The developed business models indicate that the dominating MNOs could benefit significantly from the new LSA bands which would enable dynamic traffic management to offer different service levels to different customer segments. For challenger MNOs, the LSA concept could offer the opportunity to challenge the dominating MNOs and win their customers by offering tailored services- to a wider customer base using the new LSA spectrum resources. Moreover, it could significantly re-shape the business ecosystem around the mobile broadband by opening the door to non-MNO entrants.
Using the Six Pillars foresight workshop process, forty-five Asian political, policy and activist leaders explored the futures of democratic governance. Organized and funded by Oxfam and the Rockefeller Foundation, the organizing hypothesis was that without a change in the nature of governance in Asia, poverty could not truly be uprooted. Changes in governance needed to be imagined and created from the ground up, not just imposed by the past or the elite. Five visions with accompanying causal layered analysis were developed by participants. Generally, these visions focused on more inclusion not just at the level of voting, but in terms of the participatory creation of alternative futures of culture, technology, economy and polity.
The 50-year change interval for the police operation is in progress. Taking a macro-historical view and thinking by analogy, this writer foresees that the futures of the problem will be influenced by the revolution currently taking place in management and technology. Employing theories from futures studies, the scientific inquiry that is interdisciplinary in nature, the holistic forecast of its outlooks in action becomes attainable.
The corporate foresight—future studies in business—is gaining importance globally. However, research to date has largely focused on the multinational companies (MNC) and yet revealed little about the implementation of corporate foresight in the regional subsidiaries of MNCs in emerging markets. An action research in the regional subsidiary of an MNC in Turkey was carried out to address this gap. Seven major findings/challenges were recorded during the action research: (1) changing mental models about the future, (2) controlled two-tier structure, (3) customisation of methodologies, (4) thorough examination of information sources, (5) external participation, (6) changing the primary dimension of the company and (7) sharing with other regional subsidiaries and corporate headquarters. These findings were categorised under a new framework—Knowledge–People–System–Organisation (KPSO) framework for managing the corporate foresight process at MNCs in emerging markets. The balanced distribution of the findings in this new framework shows that it could be used for further theory development in the area of corporate foresight and implemented in further corporate foresight exercises.
Executive Summary
Actions that range from incremental steps to transformational changes are essential for reducing risk from
weather and climate extremes (high agreement, robust evidence). [8.6, 8.7] Incremental steps aim to improve efficiency within existing technological, governance, and value systems, whereas transformation may involve alterations of fundamental attributes of those systems. The balance between incremental and transformational approaches depends on evolving risk profiles and underlying social and ecological conditions. Disaster risk, climate change impacts, and capacity to cope and adapt are unevenly distributed. Vulnerability is often concentrated in poorer countries or groups, although the wealthy can also be vulnerable to extreme events. Where vulnerability is high and adaptive capacity relatively low, changes in extreme climate and weather events can make it difficult for systems to adapt sustainably without transformational changes. Such transformations, where they are required, are facilitated through increased emphasis on adaptive management, learning, innovation, and leadership.
Evidence indicates that disaster risk management and adaptation policy can be integrated, reinforcing,
and supportive – but this requires careful coordination that reaches across domains of policy and practice
(high agreement, medium evidence). [8.2, 8.3, 8.5, 8.7] Including disaster risk management in resilient and
sustainable development pathways is facilitated through integrated, systemic approaches that enhance capacity to cope with, adapt to, and shape unfolding processes of change, while taking into consideration multiple stressors, different prioritized values, and competing policy goals.
Development planning and post-disaster recovery have often prioritized strategic economic sectors and
infrastructure over livelihoods and well-being in poor and marginalized communities. This can generate
missed opportunities for building local capacity and integrating local development visions into longer-term
strategies for disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change (high agreement, robust evidence).
[8.4.1, 8.5.2] A key constraint that limits pathways to post-disaster resilience is the time-bound nature of reconstruction funding. The degradation of ecosystems providing essential services also limits options for future risk management and adaptation actions locally.
Learning processes are central in shaping the capacities and outcomes of resilience in disaster risk
management, climate change adaptation, and sustainable development (high agreement, robust evidence).
[8.6.3, 8.7] An iterative process of monitoring, research, evaluation, learning, and innovation can reduce disaster risks and promote adaptive management in the context of extremes. Technological innovation and access may help achieve resilience, especially when combined with capacity development anchored in local contexts.
Progress toward resilient and sustainable development in the context of changing climate extremes can
benefit from questioning assumptions and paradigms, and stimulating innovation to encourage new
patterns of response (medium agreement, robust evidence). [8.2.5, 8.6.3, 8.7] Successfully addressing disaster risk, climate change, and other stressors often involves embracing broad participation in strategy development, the capacity to combine multiple perspectives, and contrasting ways of organizing social relations.
Multi-hazard risk management approaches provide opportunities to reduce complex and compound hazards
in rural and urban contexts (high agreement, robust evidence). [8.2.5, 8.5.2, 8.7] Considering multiple types of hazards reduces the likelihood that risk reduction efforts targeted at one type of hazard will increase exposure and vulnerability from other hazards, both in the present and future. Building adaptation into multi-hazard risk management involves consideration of current climate variability and projected changes in climate extremes, which pose different challenges to affected human and natural systems than changes in the means. Where changes in extremes cause greater stresses on human and natural systems, direct impacts may be more unpredictable, increasing associated adaptation challenges.
The most effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction actions are those that offer development benefits
in the relative near term, as well as reductions in vulnerability over the longer term (high agreement, medium evidence). [8.2.1, 8.3.1, 8.3.2, 8.5.1, 8.6.1] There are tradeoffs between current decisions and long-term
goals linked to diverse values, interests, and priorities for the future. Short-term and long-term perspectives on both disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change thus can be difficult to reconcile. Such reconciliation involves overcoming the disconnect between local risk management practices and national institutional and legal frameworks, policy, and planning. Resilience thinking offers some tools for reconciling short- and long-term responses, including integrating different types of knowledge, an emphasis on inclusive governance, and principles of adaptive management. However, limits to resilience are faced when thresholds or tipping points associated with social and/or natural systems are exceeded.
Building a strong foundation for integrating disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change
includes making transparent the values and interests that underpin development, including who wins and
loses from current policies and practices, and the implications for human security (high agreement, medium
evidence). [8.2.3, 8.2.4, 8.4.2, 8.4.3, 8.6.1.2] Both disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change share challenges related to (1) reassessing and potentially transforming the goals, functions, and structure of institutions and governance arrangements; (2) creating synergies across temporal and spatial scales; and (3) increasing access to information, technology, resources, and capacity. These challenges are particularly demanding in countries and localities with the highest climate-related risks and weak capacities to manage those risks. Countries with significant capacity and strong risk management records also benefit from addressing these challenges.
Social, economic, and environmental sustainability can be enhanced by disaster risk management and
adaptation approaches. A prerequisite for sustainability is addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability,
including the structural inequalities that create and sustain poverty and constrain access to resources
(medium agreement, robust evidence). [8.6.2, 8.7] This involves integrating disaster risk management in other social and economic policy domains, as well as a long-term commitment to managing risk.
The interactions among climate change mitigation, adaptation, and disaster risk management will have a
major influence on resilient and sustainable pathways (high agreement, low evidence). [8.2.5, 8.5.2, 8.7]
Interactions between the goals of mitigation and adaptation in particular will play out locally, but have global
consequences.
There are many approaches and pathways to a sustainable and resilient future. Multiple approaches and
development pathways can increase resilience to climate extremes (medium agreement, medium evidence). [8.2.3, 8.4.1, 8.6.1, 8.7] Choices and outcomes for adaptive actions to climate extremes must reflect divergent capacities and resources and multiple interacting processes. Actions are framed by tradeoffs between competing prioritized values and objectives, and different visions of development that can change over time. Iterative, reflexive approaches allow development pathways to integrate risk management so that diverse policy solutions can be considered, as risk and its measurement, perception, and understanding evolve over time. Choices made today can reduce or exacerbate current or future vulnerability, and facilitate or constrain future responses.
The book consists of five parts. Part 1 looks at the main trends in the world over the next 50 yr and their likely environmental consequences. Chapter 2 looks at the nature of sustainable development: whether it is compatible with economic growth, the idea of carrying capacity and the limitations of market economics. Part 2 looks at patterns of thought and action deeply ingrained within the Western industrial model of development. Sources are examined to help us understand the relationship of individuals with industrial societies, and that of humankind with nature and its embodiment in our economic systems. This section also looks at the political assumptions of Westernisation and "market-friendly' policies, and their implications for the management of sustainable development. Part 3 turns to the present organisation of world business and finance, the emerging global culture of industrial consumption and consumerism, and the implications of these for sustainable development. In Chapter 6, these "top-down' economic arrangements are contrasted with growing need for "bottom-up' local participation, both to fulfil democratic aspirations and for effectiveness in developing and implementing policy in environmental management. Part 4 turns to the potential of innovative management approaches to contribute to sustainable development. Chapter 7 reviews the main institutional and organisational constraints on "integrated' environmental management. Chapter 8 considers management in conditions of endemic turbulence and uncertainty, and the potential role of networks in environmental management, including policy, issue, professional and producer networks. Chapter 9 describes the assumptions and methods of working in action-centred networks. Part 5 comprises four case studies in environmental management, which illustrate the action-centred network approach in the industrialised and developing worlds. -from Authors
How can dystopian futures help provide the motivation to change the ways we operate day to day? Futures Beyond Dystopia takes the view that the dominant trends in the world suggest a long-term decline into unliveable Dystopian futures. The human prospect is therefore very challenging, yet the perception of dangers and dysfunctions is the first step towards dealing with them. The motivation to avoid future dangers is matched by the human need to create plans and move forward. These twin motivations can be very powerful and help to stimulate the fields of Futures Studies and Applied Foresight. This analysis of current Futures practice is split into six sections: The Case Against Hegemony Expanding and Deepening a Futures Frame Futures Studies and the Integral Agenda Social Learning through Applied Foresight Strategies and Outlooks The Dialectic of Foresight and Experience. This fascinating book will stimulate anyone involved in Futures work around the world and will challenge practitioners and others to re-examine many of their assumptions, methodologies and practices.
In this article the various epistemological premises embedded in planning and futures studies1 are examined. While many planners and futurists might locate themselves in separate discursive spaces, from the perspective developed in this article the similarities in their epistemic basis are more similar than different. Thus, the focus of this effort is on planning and futures studies generally; and specifically, the various perspectives on how the future is planned for: namely, the predictive-empirical, the cultural—interpretative, and the critical—post-structural are articulated.
In our chapter in the first edition of this Handbook (see record
1994-98625-005), we presented two tables that summarized our positions, first, on the axiomatic nature of paradigms (the paradigms we considered at that time were positivism, postpositivism, critical theory, and constructivism, p. 109, Table 6.1); and second, on the issues we believed were most fundamental to differentiating the four paradigms (p. 112, Table 6.2). These tables are reproduced here as a way of reminding our readers of our previous statements. The axioms defined the ontological, epistemological, and methodological bases for both established and emergent paradigms. The issues most often in contention that we examined were inquiry aim, nature of knowledge, the way knowledge is accumulated, goodness (rigor and validity) or quality criteria, values, ethics, voice, training, accommodation, and hegemony. An examination of these two tables will reacquaint the reader with our original Handbook treatment. Since publication of that chapter, at least one set of authors, J. Heron and P. Reason, have elaborated on our tables to include the participatory/cooperative paradigm (Heron, 1996; Heron & Reason, 1997, pp. 289-290). Thus, in addition to the paradigms of positivism, postpositivism, critical theory, and constructivism, we add the participatory paradigm in the present chapter (this is an excellent example, we might add, of the hermeneutic elaboration so embedded in our own view, constructivism). Our aim here is to extend the analysis further by building on Heron and Reason's additions and by rearranging the issues to reflect current thought. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Causal layered analysis is offered as a new futures research method. It utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview and myth/metaphor. The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing.
Futures studies is likely to evolve through changes in five areas. They are: (1) forecasting to anticipatory action learning; (2) reductionist to complex; (3) horizontal to vertical; (4) from short-term empiricist research to the return of long-term history, including grand narratives; and (5) scenario development to moral futures.
Organisational future sense: action learning and futures
- Burke
R. Burke, Organisational future sense: action learning and futures, Journal of Futures Studies 7 (2) (2002).
Causal layered analysis and deep participation
- Ramos
J. Ramos, Causal layered analysis and deep participation, in: S. Inayatullah (Ed.), The Causal Layered Analysis
Reader, Tamkang University, Taiwan, 2004.
CLA: post-structuralism as method: post-structuralism as method
- Inayatullah
S. Inayatullah, CLA: post-structuralism as method: post-structuralism as method, Futures 30 (8) (1998) 815-830.
Silences shadows, reflections on futures Who Cares? And How? Futures of Caring Societies, World Futures Studies Federation
- W Schultz
W. Schultz, Silences shadows, reflections on futures, in: J. Dator, M. Roulstone (Eds.), Who Cares? And How? Futures of Caring Societies, World Futures Studies Federation, Honolulu, 1988.
New learning curve sends planners back to the future
- J Macken
J. Macken, New learning curve sends planners back to the future, Australian Financial Review-Weekend,
December 31-January 3, 1999, pp. 2-3.
Global Issues and Futures For Planners: The Heuristic Model
- Cole
S. Cole, Global Issues and Futures For Planners: The Heuristic Model, in: J. Dator (Ed.), Advancing Futures,
Praeger Publishers, Westport CT, 2002.
Anticipatory Democracy: People in the Politics of the Future, Random House
- C Bezold
C. Bezold, Anticipatory Democracy: People in the Politics of the Future, Random House, NY, U.S.A., 1978.
From Critique to Cultural Recovery: Critical Futures Studies and Causal Layered Analysis, Australian Foresight Institute
- J Ramos
J. Ramos, From Critique to Cultural Recovery: Critical Futures Studies and Causal Layered Analysis, Australian
Foresight Institute, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia, 2003.
Foundations of Futures Studies, I, Transaction Publishers
- W Bell
W. Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, I, Transaction Publishers, New Jersey, 1997.
Futures for the Third Millennium: Enabling the Forward View
- R Slaughter
R. Slaughter, Futures for the Third Millennium: Enabling the Forward View, Prospect, New South Wales, 1999.
Interview with Zia Sardar
- Z Sardar
Z. Sardar, Interview with Zia Sardar, Melbourne, Australia, 2003.
Foresight innovation, and social entrepreneurship: pathways to sustainability Regional Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research
- J Ramos
- A O Connor
J. Ramos, A. O'Connor, Foresight innovation, and social entrepreneurship: pathways to sustainability, in: M. Gillin, F. LaPira, Yencken (Eds.), Regional Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research 2004: Papers of the First Annual Regional Entrepreneurship Exchange, Swinburne University of Technology & Babson College, 2005.
Teaching about global issues: the need for holistic learning, in: Lessons for the Future: the Missing Dimension in Education
- D Hicks
D. Hicks, Teaching about global issues: the need for holistic learning, in: Lessons for the Future: the Missing
Dimension in Education, Routledge Falmer, London, 2002 (Chapter 10).
Futures Tools and Techniques, DDM/Futures Study Centre
- R Slaughter
R. Slaughter, Futures Tools and Techniques, DDM/Futures Study Centre, Melbourne, 1995.
Questioning the Future: Future Studies, Action Learning and Organisational Transformation
- S Inayatullah
S. Inayatullah, Questioning the Future: Future Studies, Action Learning and Organisational Transformation, first
ed., Tamkang University, Taipei, Taiwan, 2002.
Univator Initiative, Research-In-Action Symposium
- Y Wadsworth
Y. Wadsworth (Ed.), Univator Initiative, Research-In-Action Symposium, ALARPM Inc. Swinburne University of
Technology, 2002.
The Evolving Self: A Psychology for the Third Millennium
- M Csikszentmihali
M. Csikszentmihali, The Evolving Self: A Psychology for the Third Millennium, HarperCollins, NY, 1993.
- S Janoff
- M R Weisbord
S. Janoff, M.R. Weisbord, Future Search, Berrett-Koehler, San Francisco, 1995.
Foresight, innovation, and social entrepreneurship: pathways to sustainability
- Ramos
J. Ramos, A. O'Connor, Foresight innovation, and social entrepreneurship: pathways to sustainability, in: M. Gillin,
F. LaPira, Yencken (Eds.), Regional Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research 2004: Papers of the First Annual
Regional Entrepreneurship Exchange, Swinburne University of Technology & Babson College, 2005.
- W Schultz
W. Schultz, Silences shadows, reflections on futures, in: J. Dator, M. Roulstone (Eds.), Who Cares? And How?
Futures of Caring Societies, World Futures Studies Federation, Honolulu, 1988.
- P Senge
- O Scharmer
P. Senge, O. Scharmer, Community Action Research. Handbook of Action Research, Sage Publications, London,
2001.
Recovering the Future
- S Slaughter
S. Slaughter, Recovering the Future, Monash University, Clayton Australia, 1988.
Deconstructing and reconstructing the future: predictive, cultural and critical epistemologies
- Inayatullah
Teaching about global issues: the need for holistic learning
- Hicks
Silences, shadows, reflections on futures
- Schultz