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How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

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Abstract

Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario methodology. This approach has some limitations when it comes to dealing with simultaneous trends and countertrends, and trends or clusters of trends that are not thought of beforehand, especially the methodological requirements of causality and consistency, which might be limiting factors in this respect. This paper indicates alternative ways for scenario construction. It discusses the use of either recombinant scenarios, context scenarios, or inconsistent scenarios and/or combinations of these scenarios. These options explicitly incorporate the notion of ‘paradoxical trend’ as the codriver of future developments into the methodology.

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... These methods and processes serve as both a description of the basic activities, the fundamental structure of a scenario planning project, but also as a normative guide, a prescription of how to develop scenarios. For example, Postma and Liebl (2005) claim that the basic activities of a scenario planning project follow a basic structure which is a variation of the GBN 2x2 matrix process. The descriptions of actual scenario planning projects in the literature, the scenario planning methodology and the GBN 2x2 matrix process are critically examined in detail below. ...
... Authors in the literature typically claim that the 2x2 matrix method is the most frequently used approach to develop scenarios, or "the best overall guide to the process" (Ringland, 1998, p. 81-82) or the 'gold standard' (e.g. Bishop, 2007;Millett, 2007) While there are many different approaches to scenario construction, Postma and Liebl (2005) have shown the predominant approach to be that known as 'Intuitive ...
... The researcher followed the references that Bradfield et al. (2016) cite. Postma and Liebl (2005) claim that "although there is no real standardized process and many differences can be observed between the various approaches within this tradition [Shell tradition], in general, they show some basic structure" (p. 163) and then present a 12 stage variation of essentially the GBN 2x2 matrix approach. ...
Thesis
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The focus of this study is scenario planning, an approach that is widely used by businesses, policy makers and NGOs to explore the future in a systematic manner. Despite the extensive use of scenario planning and more than 50 years of scholarship, the field is still in a preparadigmatic state and scenario planning lacks a theoretical and methodological foundation. This research aims to address this gap by developing a foundation of principles and theory of scenario planning. Focusing on the intuitive logics tradition, the researcher examined the practice of scenario planning, i.e. what scenario planning experts do when exploring the future. The central research question that guides this thesis is: What practices do intuitive logics scenario planning experts enact when exploring the future? The researcher conducted multiple case studies and data were collected in very extensive and in-dept interviews with many of the world leading experts on scenario planning from Royal Dutch Shell and Global Business Network (GBN). This research found that scenario planning experts seek to understand the clients of the scenario planning project, establish the scenario focus, examine the external environment, develop scenario sets, challenge the assumptions and beliefs of the clients, and catalyse conversation and dialogue. The findings of this study are novel and challenge several well-established ideas in the literature. Remarkably, the findings of this study suggest that the term intuitive logics is not an appropriate name for the field and that the GBN 2x2 matrix method is not the ‘standard’ or ‘dominant’ approach. Most importantly, the practice of scenario planning was found to be surprisingly similar among the participants of this study, however, the way it is enacted can also be vastly different among experts and projects. This is important work that matters, especially in our turbulent times. The findings of this study inform and support the practice of scenario planning, contribute credibility and legitimacy to the field, as well as provide a foundation for further field building.
... Scenarios are used as strategic tools that provide or influence interpretation schemes for strategic managers to contribute to decision processes (Postma & Liebl, 2005). Practitioners and scholars describe using scenarios as a way of "rehearsing the future" (Schwartz, 1991, p. 200) or "memorising of the future" (Van der Heijden, 2005, p. 133). ...
... Ramírez (2010) believes that effective scenarios are like "good literature"-that is, they are interpreted by managers in ways that help their minds to visualise their subjects more clearly than the immediate reality around them. Scenarios present several, fundamentally different outlooks on the future of the business environment; each scenario poses different sets of strategic challenges and requisite core capabilities that aid further exploration in decisionmaking (Postma & Liebl, 2005;Schoemaker, 1995). They integrate great volumes of data on various issues, such as global economic growth, political factors, and environmental issues, and illustrate the inter-relationships among key driving forces in interesting and provocative ways (Coates, 2000;Schoemaker, 1995;Wack, 1985). ...
... The implications of scenarios for strategy development includes challenging managers' assumptions, engaging stakeholders, exploring future possibilities, opening up the organisational mind for exploration, and delivering imaginative information (Bradfield, Wright, Burt, Cairns, & Van Der Heijden, 2005;Cornelius, Van de Putte, & Romani, 2005;Harries, 2003;O'Brien & Meadows, 2013;Postma & Liebl, 2005;Ramírez, 2008;Selsky & McCann, 2010). Another major tenet of scenarios is their usefulness for testing the robustness of contemporary strategies and decisions against the set of assumptions contained in the scenarios for opportunities and risks (Harries, 2003;O'Brien & Meadows, 2013). ...
Article
When scenarios are utilised in strategy development exercises, they are typically conducted in workshops that often take a day or more to execute, and require extensive planning to prepare and assemble a group of participants in a single location. In this paper, we explore the application of digital technologies to engage more efficiently a variety of stakeholders from the transportation domain in scenario-based activities. Several participants in the research project were selected to reflect via semi-structured interviews on the online approach and describe their experience. The findings suggest that the application of digital technologies to deliver scenarios and solicit feedback from exercise participants was mostly successful. These results accordingly show that online delivery models offer the potential for deep engagement with a range of scenario stakeholders, thereby making it possible for would-be users of scenarios to include participants who are not in the same geographic location.
... Scenario analysis is an effective tool for (strategic) decision-making in the presence of uncertainty (Postma and Liebl, 2005). Across different disciplines it is a common practice to quantify uncertainty in model output based on a set of formulated scenarios. ...
... Ambiguities over the behaviour of the model output can be reduced and trends can be detected by comparing them under unlike circumstances. Scenario analysis is not intended for generating forecasts; it projects conceivable images of the future development due to the changes in input variables (Postma and Liebl, 2005). In this section, the aim is to nominate a number of functional scenarios and study changes in the outcome. ...
Thesis
Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) with the aim of enhancing mobility and sustainability are gaining momentum across public policy sector. Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) constitute an integral element of ITS. The rapid advances in the realm of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and relevant disciplines have accelerated the development and evolution of CAVs which are believed to thoroughly transform the transportation landscape in coming decades or even years. There are manifold potential benefits (e.g., increased safety and accessibility, convenience, saving time and energy, reducing traffic congestion, etc.) perceived for this disruptive technology. Nevertheless, there is a considerable extent of uncertainties over the safe and secure performance of intelligent self-driving cars in urban environments. These uncertainties can deteriorate the existing driving risks and incur new risks which can undermine the functional safety and technical reliability of those vehicles. The interdependencies between risk factors have neither been yet studied within an integrative framework nor from the sociotechnical perspective. In this study, an interdisciplinary approach was adopted to construct a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in order to capture influential risk factors in urban settings as well as the interdependencies between them, thereby providing estimates for the risk indices under varying and volatile circumstances. This will enable us to estimate the collision risk for intelligent self-driving cars in urban environments and evaluate the impact of risk mitigation actions. Furthermore, such a model can be used to classify the urban districts based on the estimated risks and serve policymakers in allocating resources to maximise the benefits of CAVs and avoid potential safety consequences. Sociotechnical theory as an interdisciplinary approach was adopted to form the foundation of BBN model. The factors were accordingly divided into four blocks and the intersection of these blocks represent collision risk index to quantify the safety risk in urban environments. To identify the risk factors, integrative literature review together with thematic analysis (TA) were used. A new technique was formulated to populate the node probability tables (NPTs) and generate uniform distributions. Afterwards, nine domain experts assigned weights to the identified links between the nodes and influence of the probability distributions. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the influence of the incorporated nodes on the collision risk index. The outcome of the model (i.e., collision risk index) showed the highest sensitivity to traffic control infrastructure, weather conditions and traffic composition, respectively. Six scenarios were also devised to investigate the fluctuations of collision risk index due to variations in input nodes. The results of this research can provide insights for policymakers in contemplating policy choices such as investing in new or upgrading existing infrastructure, introducing new legislations, imposing regulatory requirements, licensing, and technology standardisation.
... For this reason, several approaches in the field of prescriptive AI emerged to support human decision-makers by not only recommending a decision option but also quantifying the predicted outcomes of all available decision options (e.g., expected profit in U.S. dollars). For decades, these approaches have been leveraged in a range of real-world high-stakes decision-making scenarios, such as in medical and healthcare [6,7,44], financial [19], manufacturing [3,27], or strategic management [33] domains. In line with this, large tech companies such as GE 1 , IBM 2 , or Microsoft 3 have been investing in prescriptive AI. ...
... However, the effects of predicted outcomes as explanations have not been studied yet. As predicted outcomes play an important role in scenario analyses and high-stakes decision-making (e. g., medical [6], financial [19], or strategic management [33] domains), we aim to better understand the effects of such explanations on human-AI decision-making. ...
Preprint
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In this work, we empirically examine human-AI decision-making in the presence of explanations based on predicted outcomes. This type of explanation provides a human decision-maker with expected consequences for each decision alternative at inference time - where the predicted outcomes are typically measured in a problem-specific unit (e.g., profit in U.S. dollars). We conducted a pilot study in the context of peer-to-peer lending to assess the effects of providing predicted outcomes as explanations to lay study participants. Our preliminary findings suggest that people's reliance on AI recommendations increases compared to cases where no explanation or feature-based explanations are provided, especially when the AI recommendations are incorrect. This results in a hampered ability to distinguish correct from incorrect AI recommendations, which can ultimately affect decision quality in a negative way.
... Os cenários são veículos para a exploração das causas e resultados da interação entre as forças no ambiente contextual que impulsionam o futuro do desdobramento no contexto da questão focal (BRADFIELD; CAIRNS; WRIGHT, 2015). Em outras palavras, são exposições, realçadas em hipóteses aceitáveis, do que poderá ocorrer, admitindo, com isso, se tomar (PHADNIS; CAPLICE; SHEFFI, 2016) e apoiar decisões estratégicas (POSTMA; LIEBL, 2005), que sejam admissíveis para todos os futuros presumíveis, possibilitando a prospecção de cenários e suas respectivas análises (SOUSA;OLIVEIRA, 2012). ...
... Originalmente, aplicar certa causalidade e estrutura de consistência, na qual os atributos dos elementos de cenário escolhidos poderiam assumir (exclusivos) valores diferentes, estão inequivocamente relacionados uns com os outros na construção de cenários. Nisso, um cenário representa uma combinação de valores alternativos de algumas incertezas (POSTMA; LIEBL, 2005). ...
... Scenario analysis is not aimed to obtain forecasts but advocates the creation of the future development of the external environment. In doing so, scenarios highlight crucial uncertainties, with impact on the strategic decisions managers have to make (Postma & Liebl, 2005). For this intensive case study mainly desk research, open and (un)structured interviews are used. ...
... As I have highlighted in the previous chapter, scenarios are good to test uncertainties. The starting point for scenario analyses is the current state of the process followed by observing future developments (Postma & Liebl, 2005). In the following two sections I will discuss the used scenarios. ...
Thesis
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Problem statement The current processes from departments are not explainable from the source data. All processing is currently in siloed systems with data interpretations. These interpretations are difficult and complex. This results in unclear transparency of the data. IT architecture needs the extraction of data points, but current systems cannot deliver these data points, as all processing is mainly manual.
... The practice of performing scenarios analysis with the help of material flow analysis to assess current waste management methods is described as a decision-making tool that allows to simulate the effect of future changes. Scenario analysis strives to provide comparative visions of the future developments in a system (Postma & Liebl, 2005). ...
Chapter
Inappropriate waste management practices have resulted into pollution of the environment in urban areas in India. The pollution from heavy metals requires attention owing to the toxicity of these metals for human beings. The study analyses the management of solid waste in Hanumangarh district, a region in the state of Rajasthan, India and the consequent flow of two heavy metals, Lead and Chromium. For this purpose, the status quo for the management of solid waste has been compared with two alternatives scenarios. The analysis has been performed using the techniques of material flow analysis. The material flow analysis has been employed to model the waste flows as well as the flows of the heavy metals (Cr and Pb). The results indicate the major flows of Pb and Cr in the system and, the points of action for achieving the waste management goals more closely than the current system.
... While global city-making often emphasises iconic spaces aimed at the professional class, the call to 'reclaim control' has emerged as a counter to fortify local belongings. Such a call is usually spearheaded by agents concerned about identity; these include heritage interest-groups, history-conscious citizens, cultural workers and even tourists who want to experience 'local authenticity' (Postma and Liebl, 2005). ...
Article
As the capital of Indonesia, Jakarta suffers rising pressure on land availability due to its rapid economic and population growth. To sustain its growth, The Indonesian government planned a giant sea-wall land reclamation project as a primary solution in the North of Jakarta, named Jakarta Coastal Defense Strategy (JCDS) or also known at the national level as the National Capital Integrated Coastal Development (NCICD). The project mainly intended to provide new territory for residential and commercial area as well as protection against rising sea level. This paper aims to analyse the impact of the JCDS development in terms of Jakarta’s economic, social and environmental indicators. The research employed system dynamics model to overview several plausible policy scenarios. The result shows trade-offs on different sustainable indicators based on corresponding scenarios which are beneficial for policy discussion.
... The rapid pace and quantity of new information that continuously emerged during the first wave of the pandemic left little time for sustained strategies. As many have stated, each scenario is not considered an end in itself, but rather serves to highlight crucial uncertainties, and through the active engagement in scenario planning (that results in multiple scenarios) the quality of executive decision making can be improved (O'Brien and Meadows, 2013;Postma and Liebl, 2005;Wilson, 2000;Wright et al., 2018). Repetitive revisits to previously published scenarios help any resulting strategies keep pace with rapidly emerging knowledge and changing landscapes. ...
Article
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Hundreds of scenarios were developed across the world in 2020, aimed at generating forward-looking conversations, better understanding for COVID-19 transmission rates, trialling economic outcomes, and stress-testing existing systems in light of the developing pandemic. In response, Cairns & Wright (2020) questioned the value of these mass-produced scenarios created retroactively to existing crises. We address their concerns by evaluating 213 COVID-19 scenarios developed in the first wave of the pandemic. We use two yardsticks as guiding maps against which we plot each scenario's profile and test for values of high-quality process and content. Our analyses reveal various points of high and low qualities, in both process and content. Though most reported processes fell towards lower quality standards, and content largely carried generic applications, the prolific levels of exploratory narratives reflected a mixture of high and low-quality values. Together, our papers develop and reinforce the message that scenario interventions, especially in times of crisis, should reflect more proactive efforts and ensure powerful stakeholders, decision-makers, and affected community members are included in the development of scenarios.
... In fact, some researchers have pointed to the lack of research generally on the issue of how to improve scenario generation (e.g., Isaksen, 1998;Wicke, Dhami, Onkal, & Belton, 2019). Given their value as inputs into futures, foresight, forecasting, planning and decision-making processes (e.g., Chang et al., 2016;Mellers et al., 2014;Onkal, Sayım, & Gönül, 2013;Wicke et al., 2019;Wright & Goodwin, 1999, generating scenarios that facilitate anticipation is a promising avenue for research (Andreescu, Gheorghiu, Zulean, & Curaj, 2013;Börjeson et al., 2006;Postma & Liebl, 2005). ...
Article
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The intelligence analysis domain is a critical area for futures work. Indeed, intelligence analysts’ judgments of security threats are based on considerations of how futures may unfold, and as such play a vital role in informing policy- and decision-making. In this domain, futures are typically considered using qualitative scenario generation techniques such as the cone of plausibility (CoP). We empirically examined the quality of scenarios generated using this technique on five criteria: completeness, context (otherwise known as ‘relevance/pertinence’), plausibility, coherence, and order effects (i.e., ‘transparency’). Participants were trained to use the CoP and then asked to generate scenarios that might follow within six months of the Turkish government banning Syrian refugees from entering the country. On average, participants generated three scenarios, and these could be characterized as baseline, best case, and worst case. All scenarios were significantly more likely to be of high quality on the ‘coherence’ criterion compared to the other criteria. Scenario quality was independent of scenario type. However, scenarios generated first were significantly more likely to be of high quality on the context and order effects criteria compared to those generated afterwards. We discuss the implications of these findings for the use of the CoP as well as other qualitative scenario generation techniques in futures studies.
... Consequently, this study has tried to pay due and particular attention to identification of criteria that could provide an appropriate and adequate basis for designing strategic action and operations frameworks that would trigger and catalyse the emergence of mechanisms and structures for effective dialogue. The interplay of intersecting diverse interests has implications for the development of integrated and harmonious societies, a fact that may explain what appears to be an inexorable current trend towards emergence of holistic and effective leadership styles, better geared to the engendering of sustainable governance and transformative management practices (Pralahad & Bettis, 1986;Postma & Liebl, 2005; Thiemann, April & Blass, 2006). The thesis underscores the imperative to gain in-depth understanding of the nature, diversity and dynamics of intersections of stakeholders and interest groups (Bohm, Factor & Garrett, 1991;Wachira, 2005). ...
... The founders of intuitive logics consider plausible prospective futures instead of preferred probable future situations, using a sequence of steps (Bradfield et al., 2015;Postma & Liebl, 2005;Ramírez & Selin, 2014;Rowland & Spaniol, 2017) (Figure 1). The research team represented a thorough knowledge of midwifery practice, education, research, management, perspectives, and roles, indicating their suitability to perform this study. ...
Article
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BACKGROUND:Midwifery across the world is facing changes and uncertainties. By recognizing plausible future options, a contemporary and strategic scope of midwifery practice and education can be established. The city of Antwerp, Belgium, was the indicative case for this study. Key drivers were identified to serve as input for scenarios. METHOD:Structuration theory and intuitive logics scenario planning methods were used to structure contextual midwifery scenarios. RESULTS:Six certain and six uncertain variables were identified. A two-dimensional framework showed these factors: (a) maternity care services and organization and (b) the society of child-bearing women and their families. Three scenarios described the plausible future of midwifery: (a) midwife-led care monitoring maternal health needs, (b) midwife-led holistic care, and (c) midwife/general practitioner–led integrated maternity care. CONCLUSION:All of the scenarios show the direction of change with a strategic focus, the importance of midwifery authenticity, and digital adaptability in maternity services. Also, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic cannot be ignored in future midwifery
... This aligns with the conventional financial valuation sensitivity/scenario analysis technique that determines the most integral assumptions/drivers within a model and establishes a range for them to determine how the altered assumptions influence the results. Although the process of implementing SP is defined differently, a general development process is derivable [25]. The Stanford Research Institute (1996) suggests a SP process comprising six key components: (1) a focus or decision area; (2) key decision factors; (3) external forces/drivers; (4) axes of uncertainty; (5) scenario writing; and (6) scenario implications. ...
Article
This paper reports an integrated model for evaluating an early-stage third-party mobile application developer. By combining qualitative analyses, including Business Model Canvas (BMC), strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats analysis, and scenario planning, as well as quantitative analysis based on financial modeling and valuation, this study not only demonstrates the viability of the proposed integrated model through a case analysis but also provides meaningful insights into the target company being investigated. The results indicate that the third-party app market competition/failure rate is the key factor for determining whether the target company must reduce its selling, general, and administrative expenses or expanding its customer segments to survive.
... Por lo que para Postmaa (2005), los escenarios surgen como una forma de vislumbrar el porvenir, usando y combinando diversas imágenes. Se trata de maneras convenientes de "ensayar el futuro". ...
Thesis
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Resumen El contexto de crisis ambiental enmarca una tendencia creciente de búsqueda de alternativas de carácter sustentable como una propuesta-solución desde el enfoque transdisciplinario del diseño. El objetivo del presente trabajo consiste en la planeación de una estrategia de ecodesarrollo de biocomposites, utilizando lirio acuático (eicchornia crassipes) como materia prima. El planteamiento estará inscrito dentro de un programa de investigación colectiva cuyo objetivo ulterior es el desarrollo comunitario integral sustentable de San Gregorio Atlapulco, Ciudad de México. Teóricamente se realiza un abordaje desde el pensamiento complejo y el paradigma de la sustentabilidad, que deriva en una visión del diseño como actividad integral-sustentable, desde la perspectiva del desarrollo de nuevos materiales, apelando a movimientos como el activismo material y el ecodiseño. Se llevó a cabo una experimentación de tipo exploratorio sobre biobases y tratamientos sustentables para la fibra de lirio acuático con el fin de establecer las formulaciones óptimas para la elaboración de biocomposites. A partir de ello se obtuvieron siete biocomposites con diferentes propiedades, los cuales se pueden emplear con diversos procesos para la producción de objetos de diseño sustentables. Con ello se realizó el planteamiento de un escenario prospectivo para trabajar estos procesos en comunidad de manera sustentable. Palabras clave: biocomposites, ecomateriales, sustentabilidad, lirio acuático, estrategia, ecodesarrollo. Abstract The context of environmental crisis frames a growing trend of search for alternatives of a sustainable nature as a proposal-solution from the transdisciplinary approach of design. The objective of this work consists in planning an eco-development strategy for biocomposite materials using water hyacinth (eicchornia crassipes) as raw material. The approach will be part of a collective research program whose further objective is the integral sustainable community development of San Gregorio Atlapulco. Theoretically, an approach is made from complex thinking and the sustainability paradigm, resulting in a vision of design as an integral-sustainable activity, from the perspective of the formulation of new materials, appealing to movements like material activism and the ecodesign. An exploratory experimentation for biobases and sustainable treatments for the water hyacinth fiber was carried out to establish the optimal formulations for the elaboration of biocomposites. From this, seven biocomposites with different properties were obtained, which can be used with various processes for manufacturing sustainable design objects. With this, a prospective scenario was proposed to work these processes in the community in a sustainable way. Keywords: biocomposites, ecomaterials, sustainability, water hyacinth, strategy, eco-development.
... Scenario analysis is an important tool to support strategic decisionmakers (Postma and Liebl, 2005). Besides, it allows to evaluate how variations in input data affect results, helping farmers to determine actions that could be done in practice to improve the sustainability of aquaculture systems (Häyhä et al., 2011;Li et al., 2011). ...
Article
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Aquaponics is a food production system that aims higher sustainability by integrating advantages gained from aquaculture and hydroponic production. Aquaponics aims to mimic the biological process that happens in the natural environment in a controlled production system. As it can be applied to small scales, aquaponics is considered an important alternative for urban regions, which have low availability of agricultural land and water resources. Furthermore, the advantage is that it is located close to final consumers. Aquaponics has been labeled as an environmentally friendly food production system, but its demand for energy and materials cast doubt on its sustainability. A systemic understanding of aquaponics production systems is needed to determine the magnitude and balance between its potentialities and constraints, in which emergy synthesis appears as a powerful tool for this purpose. This study applies emergy synthesis to assess the sustainability of two different (scale and marketable products) urban aquaponics farms in Brazil, but differently from other emergy studies, ecosystem services and disservices are included in the analysis as an attempt to represent the system performance holistically. Results show that the type of materials used in aquaponics infrastructures has the highest influence on total emergy demand. Surprisingly, electricity and fish feed showed a low influence on the total emergy, reinforcing the idea that aquaponics systems have a more efficiency feeding management than traditional aquaculture systems. Besides producing vegetables and fish, the inclusion of ecosystem services highlights the importance of aquaponics for educational and tourism purposes. Finally, the obtained indicators from modeling scenarios revealed that replacing the water source and some materials deserves priority attention to increase the sustainability of urban aquaponics farms.
... Scenarios are descriptions of alternative visions that put the focus on processes and decision-points and that reflect different perspectives on past, present and future developments (Rotmans et al. 2000). Scenario techniques aid to overcome knowledge and experiential limitations by elucidating multiple realistic futures, which becomes extremely useful in times of uncertainty and complexity (Postma & Liebl, 2005;Stojanović et al., 2014). Therefore, scenarios describe dynamic processes, representing sequences of events over a period of time. ...
Technical Report
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This handbook outlines the methodology for the development of alternative policy scenarios and illustrates it with examples on how the policy scenario workshop methodology was implemented in five clusters of social innovations: (i) Holistic, shared, and persistent mobility planning; (ii) Island renaissance based on renewable energy production; (iii) Energy efficiency in district regeneration; (iv) Urban mobility with superblocks; and (v) Co-ordinated, tailored, and inclusive energy efficiency schemes for fighting fuel poverty.
... The articles refer mainly to more general topics related to scenario planning, such as in a review or an introduction (O'Brien, 2004) to the general idea of scenario planning. Furthermore, they address how scenario analysis can be applied in organizations (Chermack, 2001), how they can be improved (Postma & Liebl, 2005), what their challenges (Bradfield, 2008) and issues (O'Brien, 2004) are in general, and why the scenario technique is helpful (Van der Heijden, 2000). Some articles report on individual companies' experiences with using or having applied the scenario technique, such as British Airways (Moyer, 1996). ...
Article
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Business and management research on scenarios has been highly productive over the decades but led to a complex literature that is hard to oversee. To organize the field and identify distinguishable research clusters, we conducted a co-citation analysis focusing on the long-term history of research. We compare our findings with a previously published bibliographic coupling focusing on the more recent research to trace its development over time. Our study revealed six research clusters: (1) Planning the Future with Scenarios, (2) Scenario Planning in Strategic Management , (3) Reinforcing the Scenario Technique, (4) Integration of Scenario Planning and MCDA, (5) Combination of Different Methods, and (6) Decision Making through Stochastic Programming, whereas the bibliographic coupling generated 11 clusters. Some former research clusters were divided into separate new clusters, while others were united. Additionally, completely new clusters emerged. Future research on scenarios is expected (1) to further differentiate into strategy and operations, (2) to be based on "behavioral futures" or "behavioral foresight" as a new research stream, (3) to advance the scenario technique methodically and include new specific scenario generation methods, and (4) to put forth new application areas. K E Y W O R D S bibliometric analysis, business research, co-citation analysis, management, scenario
... on how the future might look like and describing how the company is going to react to those changes. This analysis allows to think of critical uncertainties, develop possible scenarios and evaluate related impacts and responses (Postma & Liebl, 2005). It can be operationalised in the following five steps: ...
Technical Report
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In this managerial toolbox we present a selection of methods for diagnosing and facilitating change and business model innovation towards circularity in organisations and business ecosystems. The selection resulted from a combination of factors considering theoretical investigation and practical managerial experience, which aim to provide tools that are theoretically sound, easy to use, and suitable for bring about organisational changes particularly towards higher degrees of circularity. The main aim is to help organisations move away from "management of unsustainability" lock-in, and transitions towards more sustainable configurations, a shift from "doing things better" to "doing better things". We have selected 15 diagnosis methods, 9 methods for facilitating organisations or being used by organisations, and 9 methods for facilitating business ecosystems creation and development or for business ecosystem leaders to use. Not one of them is individually more effective than the other ones. It is recommended that their selection is a task that should be carefully planned and executed preferably with the support of change management experts who would coach companies in identifying their "root problem" of an unsustainable system they are in and carefully combine the methods that are the most suitable for their specific organisation and context.
... On their part, Mantufar et al. [19] considered simulation a tool used to respond to questions about an uncertain future, sharing the idea that if the problem can be imagined, then it can be simulated. A scenario represents the creation of a set of actions that gives, as a result, a history to test business plans or projects, thus, supporting strategic decision-makers facing uncertainties that may happen [20,21]. Similarly, Vergara et al. [22] agreed in their work, that a scenario is the description of a potential or possible future, including the detail of how to reach it and explore the effect of several events jointly. ...
Article
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This study was performed in a regional product marketing company located in Ciudad Obregón, Sonora, México, where a problem was detected in empirical decision-making due to their recent incorporation into the market. Thus, the objective of this study is the shelf-product production link, where the interest is in knowing the behavior of the main variables that influence the system. System dynamics methodology follows six steps: (1) Map the process under study with the value stream map (VSM); (2) Create a causal diagram; (3) Elaborate the Forrester diagram and equations; (4) Validate the current model; (5) Simulate scenarios; (6) Create the graphical user interface. The main results were the design of the scenarios starting from a robust system dynamics model, three scenarios, and the graphical interface. For this purpose, Stella Architect Software was used as it has special attributes to create a graphical user interface. Furthermore, all the elements of the VSM were added under the Lean Startup approach. Significantly, the inadequate management of the materials was detected, which is why the recommendation was to separate the packaging of dry and cold products to care for food innocuousness and the cold chain. Likewise, processing time decreased, reducing material transfer, which was detected by applying a future VSM based on the Lean Startup methodology. The technological solution in this study is a contribution based on social sciences and mathematics (nonlinear equations) using dynamics simulation to observe the complexity of system behavior.
... In the resolution stage, emergency management leads to the different accident scenarios. Once referred human factors in pipeline risk assessment, the term "scenario" is not only related to the sense of the possible states of nature [42], but also includes the alternative strategies of DM based on the method of constructivism scenario analysis [43]. ...
Article
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This paper proposes a non-weighted maximal approach of multi-attribute risk assessment for production accidents, which comes from the Chinese practice of risk management rather than the theoretical weighted multi-attribute approach. In the Chinese practice of risk management in production accidents, the non-weighted maximal approach is described the maximum function among multiple criteria, which include fatalities, serious injuries, direct economic loss, and environment pollutions. The approach comes from the Chinese government official achievement assessment system with the characteristics of “one ticket veto system for production safety”, and has applied to ex ante assessing likelihood of the accident, and ex post holding the responsible for accidents. At last, applying the case of the Chinese Qingdao oil pipeline accident, the maximal approach is compared with the FN curve criterion, the ALARP principle and the ELECTRE TRI method. The results show that the maximal approach of production safety accident criterion pays more attention to the risk density or risk consequences, which follows the “cask principle” and is much more useful controlling the risk when targeting the vulnerable links of engineering systems.
... After establishing the improved stochastic LCC analysis model, scenario designing is conducted to obtain the impact of EPIs on construction equipment replacement. Designing scenarios for analysis is especially effective in dealing with the impact of stochastic factors, which can be used to support strategic decision-makers (Postma and Liebl, 2005). This study creates several scenarios that include different EPIs. ...
Article
Both contractors and governments are eager for a model that can assist them to examine the impact of environmental policy instruments (EPIs) on construction equipment replacement from a stochastic perspective. Therefore, this study introduces an improved stochastic life cycle cost (LCC) analysis model and designs eight scenarios in which different EPIs are considered for such examination. The limitation of the traditional LCC analysis model has been examined. The effectiveness of the improved LCC analysis model is demonstrated with its application in a 2002 Sterling LT9500 dump truck in the US market. The results show that: (1) The traditional LCC analysis model is not robust due to failing to consider costs incurred by EPIs and a lack of stochastic perspective. (2) Mandatory administration policy instruments (EPIA) can promote earlier replacement of construction equipment, but EPIA can put a heavy financial burden on contractors. (3) When economic incentive policy instruments such as grants or subsidies programs (EPIBGS) and tax credits programs (EPIBT) are not lucrative enough, it is very hard to involve contractors in these programs, which will hardly motivate them to replace their construction equipment earlier. (4) A combination of EPIA, EPIBGS and EPIBT can work better, which can motive contractors to earlier replace existing equipment, and reduce the financial burden of contractors to some extent.
... Each scenario presents a different set of strategic objectives and core capabilities that achieve the most thorough exploration of the process of decision making (Postma and Liebl, 2005;Schoemaker, 1995). ...
Article
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The energy and its entire related infrastructure are the main drivers for a economic development and for ensuring a good level of employment. As part of a global study about international energy sector, we evaluate here the impact of technological changes on the state of the energy infrastructure. This study includes a detailed analysis of the global challenges facing the energy industry. We propose scenarios for the development of a modernized energy infrastructure with an assessment of the entire energy system. Our evaluation indicators are chosen in terms of the reliability of the energy infrastructure, of its quality, of the accidents that may happen and of the consequent environmental risks. This study is particularly adapted for forecasting the necessary measures (of technical nature, of governance kind) that have to be implemented to reduce the acceleration of the infrastructure deterioration rate. Our results reveal that the use of digital and information technologies has many positive impacts on the development and on the control of an efficient consumption of energy. In addition, our predictions, due to the further modernization of the energy sector, can contribute and help in the creation of preconditions that will be highly stimulating and profitable to the growth of investments in the energy infrastructure.
... The popular models which have been studied in the decision-making literature for selecting the desired option can be reviewed in four main categories: (1) classical models and tools in the field of strategic planning such as QSPM and SWOT [6][7][8][9]; (2) scenario planning models [10][11][12][13]; (3) multi-criteria decision-making models [14][15][16][17]; and (4) robustness analysis (RA) models [18][19][20][21]. Considering the previously mentioned challenges as the criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of different models, we can present a more reasonable model in the decision-making process to select the desired option. ...
Article
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Purpose: We focus on a fuzzy-weighted approach to the robustness analysis based on experts' opinions for selecting a reasonable strategy in a special decision-making problem. Design/methodology/approach: We deal with environmental uncertainty by reviewing performance of the strategies among the alternative futures, to answer some complexities of the strategy selection problem by considering the desired number of scenarios, indicators and options as well as collecting experts' judgments in an appropriate time. Weights of the indicators determining the situations of future scenarios are considered as triangular fuzzy numbers. Also, we use the well-known Dolan-Moré performance profile in order to more precisely investigate the strategies situations, especially when their robustness levels are close to each other. Findings: According to the results, concerning environmental situations as well as the possible future of the automotive industry of Iran, the defensive strategy is a robust decision. Among the sub-strategies related to the main strategy defensive, retrenchment and divestiture strategies have a higher robustness level. Originality/value: Using matrix modeling, it is possible to overcome some of the weaknesses of the classical robustness analysis related to reviewing few scenarios, indicators and options as well as the time-consuming process of collecting the experts' opinions.
... This understanding can be found in every conventional approach to risk management, in scenario analysis and in likelihood-impact analysis. In scenario analysis, the explicit purpose is to identify possible uncertain futures and translate them into manageable risks -to make the future present (Bradfield et al. 2005;Postma and Liebl 2005). ...
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This chapter tells the story of how the concepts of risk and security increasingly merge ini Security StudIes and how contemporary security practices of resilience arid precaution write and rewrite classical notions of risk.
... 14 Other scholars engage in a similar debate over 'backcasting' as opposed to forecasting; viewing the future in the image of our present normative stance (see Robinson 2003;Masini 2006). What these approaches all have in common is their stance against pre-mediation, acknowledging that 13 It is generally agreed that for a scenario to work as a decision-making tool, the imaginary futures need to appear logical and possible (Bradfield 2005;Postma and Liebl 2005). In the previous chapter, I mapped out the key conceptual understandings of innovation in today's teaching on the subject and how these concepts reflect three distinct philosophical understandings of knowledge, society and the future. ...
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To teach for innovation is a key ambition for current reforms of higher education and professional training. It represents an ambition to reorganise our educations and our teaching to prepare us for of an uncertain future. But how, this book asks, can we prepare for the unknown? Teaching for Innovation takes the reader through the variety of approaches to innovation in higher education and shows how different pedagogical and didactic principles come to define different visions of the future. Petersen shows how different pedagogical choices have become powerful tools that ‘secretly’ define and prescribe future social, political and economic needs. In the final part of the book, she presents three ways in which teachers and managers can work with innovation in their daily teaching. In preparing students for a world of uncertainty, Petersen argues that we should engage the student’s imagination to ‘go visiting’ different realities, to acknowledge pluralism, and to critically engage preferable futures. The book speaks to professionals and teachers alike and combines the virtues of a textbook and a research monograph. It makes visible how the many choices teachers and university managers make every day entails political visions that will shape coming generations of students.
... The open-source codebase adheres to gold-standard software engineering methods (fully tested, fully documented) and is openly available from the Policy Options for Digital Infrastructure Strategies (PODIS) repository: https://github.com/edwardoughton/podis Figure 2 Quantifying broadband universal service strategies using data analytics methods A scenario-based approach is used to assess the research questions, as is common in the literature to test 'what if' questions (Paltsev, 2017;Postma and Liebl, 2005;Swart et al., 2004) for infrastructure decisions (Hall et al., 2016a(Hall et al., , 2016bThoung et al., 2016), including digital infrastructure roll-out (E.J. . This involves using a standard regulatory approach for making telecom policy decisions by modeling a representative 'Hypothetical Mobile Network Operator', based on a Long-Run Incremental Cost modeling approach (Ofcom, 2018). ...
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Internet access is essential for economic development and helping to deliver the Sustainable Development Goals, especially as even basic broadband can revolutionize available economic opportunities. Yet, more than one billion people still live without internet access. Governments must make strategic choices to connect these citizens, but currently have few independent, transparent and scientifically reproducible assessments to rely on. This paper develops open-source software to test broadband universal service strategies which meet the 10 Mbps target being considered by the UN Broadband Commission. The private and government costs of different infrastructure decisions are quantified in six East and West African countries (C\^ote D`Ivoire, Mali, Senegal, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda). The results provide strong evidence that `leapfrogging` straight to 4G in unconnected areas is the least-cost option for providing broadband universal service, with savings between 13-51% over 3G. The results also demonstrate how the extraction of spectrum and tax revenues in unviable markets provide no net benefit, as for every $1 taken in revenue, a $1 infrastructure subsidy is required from government to achieve broadband universal service. Importantly, the use of a Shared Rural Network in unviable locations provides impressive cost savings (up to 78%), while retaining the benefits of dynamic infrastructure competition in viable urban and suburban areas. This paper provides evidence to design national and international policies aimed at broadband universal service.
... "Area B" affects most of the territory of the city of Milan. 11 Scenario is used according to the definition by Postma and Liebl (2005): "as tools for perceiving, framing minds, and thinking of managers and decision support in the context of strategic decision making"(p. 172). ...
Article
The spread of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and the diffusion of the digital sharing mobility service are conditions capable of producing significant impacts on the urban environment and mobility practices. Literature mainly focuses on the technical, safety, regulatory and commercial aspects of Electric Vehicles; less attention has been paid to the contextual conditions (settlements, endowments, mobility practices), individual preferences, lifestyle and attitudinal factors, able to guarantee an efficient and fair diffusion of electric mobility in terms of use of the energy and urban resources, as well as access to urban opportunities. Based on this, the paper investigates the spatial pattern of potential demand for electric vehicles in the Milan Urban Region (North Italy), and its relevance in defining diversified and site-based EV policies for promoting a fair transition towards low carbon mobility. For analysing the relationships between electric mobility, local socioeconomic and settlement features and mobility practices, a multicriteria analysis has been carried out, processing variables that describe the contextual conditions and the propensity towards the adoption of EVs. The empirical application offers four scenarios for identifying different intensities, modes and speeds in the diffusion of EVs, in order to orient policy-making processes to support a sustainable mobility transition.
... Outra contribuição que este estudo traz para a literatura científica da área é trazer em pauta um alargado e robusto número de estratégias que poderão viabilizar contribuições importantes para as IESs e seus respectivos programas de pós-graduação stricto sensu da área de administração, contabilidade e turismo em cenários de incertezas (Postma & Liebl, 2005;Maggs & Chelin, 2013) e desafios em decorrência da competitividade (Heinzen & Marinho, 2019), perseguindo e alçando a posteriori melhores níveis de performance organizacional (Fernandes, Fleury & Mills, 2006). ...
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O objetivo deste estudo foi identificar as estratégias mais prováveis pelos Programas de Stricto Sensu das Instituições de Ensino Superior do Brasil da área de Administração Pública e de Empresas, Ciências Contábeis e Turismo frente cenário otimista prospectado para o período de 2019 a 2030, embasada pela metodologia sugerida por Blanning e Reinig (1998). Usou-se também a estatística descritiva e análise de agrupamento, mediante análise de conglomerados. Os resultados basilares mostram que, quanto à utilização média das estratégias e quanto ao uso extremo das estratégias, a estratégia “fomentar a qualidade das teses e das dissertações” ficou em destaque no cenário otimista. Enfocando-se agora as estratégias por cenários sob a ótica dos clusters, para o cenário otimista, as estratégias que ficaram em evidência foram: “buscar empréstimos para expansão por meio de instituições financeiras nacionais” e “participar de fusão ou aquisição de IES”. Este estudo contribui para melhor entender e compreender a importância dos cenários prospectados no ensino superior brasileiro, em especial no stricto sensu, trazendo como destaque algumas estratégias, que, de acordo com diferentes finalidades, podem assessorar estes programas em suas respectivas perpetuidades e na criação de vantagem competitiva no mercado em que atuam no Brasil.
... Mietzner and Reger (2005) give an overview of concepts and their respective strengths and weaknesses. Scenarios are never forecasts or predictionsthey can only work with current existing knowledge (Postma and Liebl, 2005). Scenario analysis and scenario planning are two technical terms often used interchangeably, but according to Moriarty (2012) "analysis" refers more to the actual construction of sets of possible futures, whereas "planning" refers to practical implications for the industry. ...
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Purpose – This paper aims to focus on the development of a vision for the Lake Constance region, Germany, as an e-destination, i.e. a destination where tourism mobility would be predominantly electric in the future. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses a scenario analysis based on factor analysis in addition to empirical data collected in 2016 and 2017 based on surveys and interviews with tourists and stakeholders. Findings – The scenarios contain the optimistic, pessimistic and realistic models, including one scenario called e-destination, i.e. a projection of the future where tourism mobility consists predominantly of electro-mobility (e-mobility). This specific scenario is supported by the results of the empirical data. Research limitations/implications – As the study focusses on e-mobility only, it leaves out other forms of mobility e.g. pedestrian or cycling mobility that also contribute to CO2 reduction. The sampling methods are not strictly randomised, but the tendencies they show are clear and supporting each other. Practical implications – According to the tourists and stakeholders interviewed, it is quite likely that the region will become an e-destination in the future, but only with government support. Social implications – The attitude-behaviour-gap was discussed as a possible explanation of tourists’ behaviour in the study. Originality/value – Studies on e-mobility in tourism are rare. (As far as the author knows) this paper presents the first analysis of the future of e-mobility in tourism using a German lake as a destination. Thus, it adds to the existing body of knowledge different possible projections of the future regarding e-mobility in a tourism destination. Keywords Scenario analysis, Sustainable tourism, e-mobility, Lake Constance region, Mobility turn, Tourism mobility Paper type Research paper
... A key aim of scenario building is to extend thinking in terms of length of time-beyond five to ten years into the future-and breadth-across a range of possible futures (Duinker and Greig, 2007). Scenario analysis is most useful when uncertainties start to dominate over predetermined processes (Postma and Liebl, 2005). In this study, we apply simulation modelling to examine the implications of an expanding bioeconomy through policy-relevant scenarios. ...
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This study adds to the scientific literature dealing with the climate change mitigation implications of wood substitution. Its main scientific contribution rests with the modelling approach. By fully integrating forest resource and wood-product markets modelling in quantitative scenario analysis, we account for international trade in wood products as well as impacts on EU forests and forest-based sector employment of an increased EU uptake of wood-based construction and/or biochemicals and biofuels. Our results confirm the crucial role of the sawmilling industry in the forest-based bioeconomy. Thus, boosting wood-based construction in the EU would be most effective in increasing EU production and employment-in logging and solid wood-products manufacturing, but also in sectors using sawmilling byproducts as feedstock. Vertical integration in wood-based biorefineries should thus be advantageous. The positive EU climate-change mitigation effects of increased carbon storage in harvested wood products (HWP) and material substitution from increased wood construction are more than offset by reduced net forests carbon sinks by 2030, due to increased EU harvests. Further, increased EU imports, resulting in lower consumption of sawnwood outside the EU, would reduce extra-EU long-life HWP carbon storage and substitution of GHG-intensive materials, highlighting the need for concerted international climate change mitigation.
... The research was qualitative regarding the strategy, in terms of the purpose it was applied, in terms of method it was descriptive and from the exploratory and survey branch, and regarding the time of data collection it was multi-sectional. In order to create a scenario, it is necessary to identify and designate key uncertainties by observing factors with high impact and high unpredictability so that we can create a matrix, 15 and based on steps 4 and 5 of the Schwartz model, a two-by-two matrix will be formed to introduce four scenarios in four houses. The Schwartz model encompasses eight main steps: 1) clarifying the main focus of the scenarios (the main question), 2) reviewing past changes to identify driving trends and forces in progress, 3) identifying future changes and driving forces of known changes, 4) identifying key uncertainties, 5) creating a logical framework based on identified uncertainties, 6) fertilizing main features and developing narratives for each scenario, 7) identifying the themes for each of the scenarios of the organization, and 8) defining indicators and guidance signs. ...
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BACKGROUND: Futures studies is a managerial tool which is also regarded as a soft knowledge to gather the information on what may happen in the future or what is more likely to happen mainly to reduce risk factors. This study aims to identify the favorable future and the most probable occurring scenarios concerning the demands in the healthcare services and medical treatments in Sanandaj City, Iran. METHODS: In this study, environmental monitoring, Delphi method, and scenario planning were utilized. To determine the drivers of content and the periphery, we used a non-structured questionnaire. A total of 12 experts in the field of medicine, management, sociology, psychology, and economics as well as health care management participated in the study. RESULTS: In the present study, in order to calculate the scenario planning and relative data analysis, we reflected on the morphology between the key factors that influenced the health care. Two important uncertainties were identified: the quality of service by suppliers and the level of attitudinal knowledge of the clients. In addition, using a cross (matrix) method, we were able to identify four passable future scenarios. CONCLUSION: Based on the findings and results of this study, Apple Health Scenario, where two uncertainties of suppliers' services of a qualitative increase status, and the increasing level of knowledge and attitude of health applicants, have the best conditions. Consequently, a favorable future will be required for health services, health and medical treatment and other future prospects will not be desirable for this matter.
... The author conducts experiments to test the effect of scenario planning on confidence and beliefs. Postma and Liebl (2005) who account for the ninth place with 10.9 citations per year on average, address methodological shortcomings of the scenario technique which V. Tiberius, et al. Journal of Business Research 121 (2020) 235-242 stem from contradictory, paradoxical, and overlooked trends. ...
Article
The scenario technique is widely used to cope with uncertainties plan for alternate future situations. The extensive research led to a scattered literature landscape. To organize the field quantitatively, we conduct bib-liometric performance analyses and a bibliographic coupling analysis. Results show an increased interest in scenario research since 2009 and clear distinctions between strategic and operational as well as methodological and applied research. Future research can be expected to further enhance the method towards robust decision making and to combine it with methods searching for most likely scenarios, such as prediction markets, crowdsourcing, and superforecasting. Additionally, cognitive and behavioral aspects of using the scenario technique might draw further attention. The scenario technique is expected to be applied across all industries and will probably play an increasing role in currently underrepresented business functions such as marketing and innovation.
... However, the scenarios generated with the consistencymatrix approach have a higher consistency as indirect interdependencies between projections are considered, too [14]. Additionally, there is a tendency to systematically exclude combinations of future projections that appear logically impossible or inconsistent, even if they are not, due to the ever-increasing complexity and neglected underlying causalities between key factors [61,62]. This is more likely to happen if the catalog-based approach is used, as complexity cannot be not reduced to a single evaluation of a pair of future projections, rather the suitability of a future projection for a partly synthesized scenario, i.e. a set of future projections, needs to be evaluated. ...
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The development of robust products, meaning products that are successful regardless of changes in the future, requires an assessment of possible futures. This makes it possible to adapt to negative and unexpected conditions or circumstances. For this reason, future scenarios are developed that reflect possible futures based on influencing factors and their alternative developments on the product or system. For each factor, multidimensional future projections can be found, which are then evaluated for consistency. Up to now, scenarios have been created using the scenario management approach, which is based on consistency assessment of future projections pairs of key factors, or morphological methods (e.g. field anomaly relaxation). Both approaches are based at least in part on a plausibility check. On the one hand this leads to a high expenditure of time in scenario management, and on the other hand morphological methods consider a limited number of factors, which reduces the future space and thus limits informative value of the scenarios. In this research contribution, an explorative approach to deriving future scenarios is proposed that integrates morphological elements into scenario management. This significantly reduces the time required to generate future scenarios without having to reduce the number of considered key factors. First, the proposed approach is described with a process model. Second, the proposed form of scenario generation, the catalog-based scenario generation, is compared with the previously used approach to scenario generation with regard to advantages and disadvantages. Finally, the suitability for PGE - product generation engineering projects is evaluated, in particular regarding replicability, comprehensibility, effort and the completeness of the described future space. This is done by conducting three structured expert interviews and two case studies. Thereby, scenarios are created with both approaches. The criteria to evaluate the approaches are defined by a panel of experts on PGE.
... Expected Future Effects ○ R&D investment is essentially an act of referring to the value of the future and investing in the present. ○ An approach is needed that allows establishment of a scenario with consideration of uncertainties (Clarke and Baker 2011;Postma and Liebl 2005). ○ Prospective data on future technology must be acquired through a transparent and fair process (Clarke and Baker 2011). . ...
Article
While recent international negotiations about combating climate change have led governments around the world to invest in R&D in the energy sector, funds allocated to R&D investment have remained limited during global economic downturns and dependent on national economic conditions. A systematic approach and strategic budget allocation are required to achieve various national energy policy targets. In this study, we describe the optimal investment portfolio for achieving energy policy targets in Korea based on three budget allocation criteria: past investment performance, expected future effects and additional investment risk. We outline the analytic hierarchical process by which policy target priorities are set, developing a market allocation model to analyse expected future effects and a system dynamics model to calculate the investment volume. The systematic approach suggested in this study can increase the efficiency of budget spending by helping governments make investment decisions based on clear criteria and the results of our quantitative analysis regarding government investment in R&D.
... Os cenários são veículos para a exploração das causas e resultados da interação entre as forças no ambiente contextual que impulsionam o futuro do desdobramento no contexto da questão focal (Bradfield, Cairns & Wright, 2015). Em outras palavras, são exposições, realçadas em hipóteses aceitáveis, do que poderá ocorrer, admitindo, com isso, se tomar (Phadnis, Caplice & Sheffi, 2016) e apoiar decisões estratégicas (Postma & Liebl, 2005), que sejam admissíveis para todos os futuros presumíveis, possibilitando a prospecção de cenários e suas respectivas análises (Sousa, Forte & Oliveira, 2012). ...
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Purpose of the study: List the mean in the scale of utilization of the strategies of the Stricto Sensu Programs of the Higher Education Institutions of Brazil in the Public Administration and Business, Accounting and Tourism area in the scenarios surveyed for the period from 2019 to 2030. Methodology / approach: The scenario methodology suggested by Blanning and Reinig. Originality / Relevance: The postgraduate course presents itself as a necessary source of knowledge creation to meet the emerging demands of companies and society, so the choice to study the higher education sector, highlighting the Stricto Sensu Programs of public and private institutions of Brazil, is due to the relevance that this sector has for Brazil. It is relevant to reflect on the current conditions and contributions and the desirable future scenario for these postgraduates. Main results: As for the use of strategies by scenario, the strategy "to promote the quality of theses and dissertations" was highlighted in the optimistic and realistic scenarios; looking at the pessimistic scenario, the strategy that was in relevance was the reduction of costs.Theoretical / methodological contributions: It is to bring into the agenda strategies that can make important contributions to the institutions and their respective graduate programs in scenarios of uncertainties and challenges due to competitiveness.Social / management contributions: The social insertion is an important criterion for the integration and cooperation of already existing stricto sensu postgraduate programs, mature and or legitimized, with other programs and centers of study of Brazil, contributing emphatically to the promotion of new professionals , especially in the less favored regions of Brazil.
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Desertification, as a complex process, is a serious threat to the environment in many parts of the world, especially in arid regions. With accurate knowledge of the factors influencing the spread of desertification and appropriate management strategies, the impacts of this process can be controlled or reduced. The aim of the current study was to identify and assess indicators and indices of desertification for the assessment and mapping of sensitive areas of the Kavir-e-Namak basin in Khorasan Razavi province, to desertification. In this study, an assessment model of sensitive areas to desertification (ESAs or MEDALUS), available data based on field studies in 2021, was used. At first, five criteria including soil, climate, vegetation, erosion and human activities were identified as the main criteria for desertification. Then, on the basis of the opinions of over 40 natural resource experts, the indices of each criterion were classified, weighted and assessed. The quality of each criterion was determined by the calculation of the geometric average of the indices. Finally, the map of areas sensitive to desertification in the study area was produced using GIS. The identification of management strategies was conducted using the Delphi approach and distributing a two-cycle questionnaire based on scenario planning and future studies. The results showed that among the criteria for desertification in the study area, climatic criteria, human activities, soil and erosion with values of 1.54, 1.53, 1.51 and 1.50, respectively, are the most important criteria followed by the vegetation criterion with a value of 1.45 as a next effective criterion of desertification. Results indicate that 12% of the study area are in the fragile class, and approximately 88% in the moderate to severe critical class. Based on scenario planning and method of futures studies, the best and worst scenarios in four different categories including adaptive management and organizational cohesion, economic and social empowerment of local communities, educational development, culture and advertising, and participatory implementation of natural resource projects as comprehensive management strategies were developed.
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Based on (post)structuralist approaches more in general and the work of Roland Barthes in particular, images of the future are examined as contemporary language-based constructions. Language is thereby understood as fundamentally differential, conventional and prefigurative. It sets a frame of thought that also shapes images of the future. Using Barthes' concept of doxa as a dominant discourse that sets itself as 'natural', plausibility is understood as alignment with such a dominant frame of thought. Accordingly, plausible images of the future perpetuate the respective frame of thought. By means of Barthes' text-analytical procedures, methodological options for distancing oneself from frames of thought are developed in order to facilitate thinking different futures. (Thesis in German)
Article
This paper proposes a multi-data driven hybrid learning method for weekly photovoltaic (PV) power scenario forecast that is coordinately driven by weather forecasts and historical PV power output data. Patterns of historical data and weather forecast information are simultaneously captured to ensure the quality of the generated scenarios. By combining bicubic interpolation and bidirectional long-short term memory (BiLSTM), a super resolution algorithm is first presented to enhance the time resolution of weather forecast data from three hours to one hour and increase the precision of weather forecasting. A weather process-based weekly PV power classification strategy is proposed to capture the coupling relationships between meteorological elements, continuous weather changes and weekly PV power. A gated recurrent unit (GRU)-convolutional neural network (CNN)-based scenario forecast method is developed to generate weekly PV power scenarios. Evaluation indices are presented to comprehensively assess the quality of the generated weekly scenarios of PV power. Finally, the PV power, weather observation and weather forecast data collected from five PV plants located in Northeast Asia are used to verify the effectiveness and correctness of the proposed method.
Thesis
Wesentliche Einflussfaktoren auf Krankenhäuser werden immer multidimensionaler, verflochtener und verändern sich teilweise so schnell, dass bereits etablierte Prognoseverfahren an ihre Grenzen stoßen. Somit steigen die Anforderungen im Rahmen der strategischen Krankenhausplanung und verschärfen das inhärente Planungsproblem kontinuierlich. Daher ist es notwendig eine ganzheitliche Zukunftsplanung für Krankenhäuser zu etablieren und somit Unsicherheiten im Strategieplanungsprozess so weit wie möglich zu reduzieren. Das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es zu beantworten, wie eine ganzheitliche Planung in Krankenhäusern, im Rahmen einer Szenarioanalyse, erfolgreich etabliert werden kann. Wahrscheinliche Zukunftsereignisse sollen skizziert und deren Auswirkungen auf das System Krankenhaus quantifiziert werden können, um Handlungsmöglichkeiten abzuleiten. Dazu wird folgende Forschungsfrage gestellt: Wie kann das tatsächlich existierende Planungsproblem in Krankenhäusern, unter Berücksichtigung der Komplexitätszusammenhänge, durch einen Ansatz einer ganzheitlichen Planung, im Rahmen einer Szenarioanalyse vereinfacht werden? Um diese Frage zu beantworten, wurde unter Einsatz von extrapolierenden Verfahren ein Grundmodell erstellt, welches eine Szenarioanalyse zur Ausrichtung von Krankenhäusern unter Berücksichtigung relevanter Einflussfaktoren abbildet. Hierzu wurden statistische Diagnosedaten des Bundes, des Landes, eines Beispielkrankenhauses sowie Bevölkerungsentwicklungsdaten und DRG-Kostendaten eingebunden. Im Ergebnis der Arbeit kann eruiert werden, dass die entwickelte Szenarioanalyse einen neuen branchenspezifischen Planungsansatz darstellt, als geeignetes strategisches Managementinstrument für Krankenhäuser eingesetzt und als Entscheidungsgrundlage genutzt werden kann. Die Szenarioanalyse zeigt ceteris paribus, dass die regional-demographischen Bevölkerungsschichtungen des Beispiellandkreises erheblichen Einfluss auf die prospektive Entwicklung der Beispielklinik haben, stärker als im Bundes- oder Landesdiagnosetrend. Durch die Variation realer Einflussfaktoren sind Auswirkungen sofort quantifizierbar. Ein weiterführender Einsatz in überregionalen Krankenhauskonzernen sowie in den landesspezifischen Krankenhausplanungsbehörden würde zu einer prospektiv signifikant erhöhten Planungsgenauigkeit führen.
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Environmental changes caused by climate change in Alaska pose a serious threat to the food, energy and water systems that support the culturally diverse communities statewide. The fishing industry, watershed managers and other stakeholders struggle with understanding and predicting the rates, magnitude and location of changes occurring in their regions primarily because of the significant range of uncertainty inherent in these changes. With the guidance of stakeholders, we demonstrate a scenario analysis methodology to elucidate the interactions among various components and uncertainties within the food, energy and water systems of the Kenai River Watershed. Alternative scenario analysis provided stakeholders with a venue and process to consider plausible futures in which rates of change in critical uncertainties were modeled to elucidate potential responses. Critical uncertainties ranged from climatic impacts on freshwater systems, to new energy development proposals, to changes in sport and personal use fisheries. Working together, stakeholders developed narratives that reflected different combinations of future uncertainty to guide potential management actions now and in the future. Five scenarios were developed by stakeholders that capture the complex interactions in the Kenai River Watershed as a social–ecological system. This process provides a way for managers and stakeholders to plan for the future in a richer way than extrapolating trends for obvious drivers of change. We present this framework as a platform for integrating climate, landscape and cultural change data into actionable decisions, crafted by stakeholders, to improve future food, energy and water resource management at the watershed scale.
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De Brexit, in gelijk welke vorm dan ook, heeft, nog voor hij ingang vindt, al een impact op de handelsstromen tussen het continent en het Verenigd Koninkrijk. Deze studie onderzocht voor verschillende scenario's de impact op de autotrafiek van de haven van Zeebrugge. Het is de grootste autohaven van Europa, in eenheden, en de trafiek met Groot-Brittannië bedraagt 46% van het volume. In het geval van een hard-Brexit valt de handel terug op WTO-regels en zouden de kosten voor een auto met een waarde van € 23.000 stijgen met € 2.744 en zouden de uitvoer en invoer van nieuwe auto's dalen met respectievelijk 442.261 en 216.617 eenheden of 30% en 20%. Indien er een overeenkomst wordt gesloten in de vorm van douane-unie of een handelsovereenkomst naar Canadees model zullen de effecten kleiner zijn. Trefwoorden: Brexit, vrijhandelsakkoord, Zeebrugge
Article
The identification of future trends and the anticipation of market changes have become determinant to the competitiveness of organizations. Scenario planning is a useful tool in dealing with change and uncertainty. The present study aims at developing a tourism scenario, based on heuristic logic approach and the opinions of key stakeholders and actors for Hormozgan province in southern Iran. This study tried to recognize the main factors affecting the tourism industry in Hormozgan province by interviewing experts and determining the significance and uncertainty of the factors as well as key factors influencing the future of tourism using the matrix of influence and dependency to illustrate four possible scenarios for tourism in Hormozgan province in the 10-year horizon, these scenarios can be useful and efficient for managers, decision makers, and stakeholders in tourism.
Chapter
The circular economy represents a significant market opportunity for innovative technologies concerned with the recycling and valorisation of textile waste. In order to render our textile production and consumption systems more sustainable, we need to develop new technologies but also new business models that valorise the growing fractions of lower-quality textile waste, thus diverting textile materials from landfill and incineration. This chapter draws on the EU H2020-project Resyntex, which has developed chemical recycling technologies capable of accepting mixed textile fibres to produce marketable chemical feedstocks. Premised on the principle of an ‘industrial symbiosis’, this technology processes waste fibres into secondary raw materials to be used in the construction, transport and packaging industries. To identify the possible routes to commercialisation for this textile recycling technology, a strategic investment decision-making (SID) perspective was adopted, assessing a wide range of interrelated market, financial and stakeholder perspectives. The engagement of stakeholders throughout the value chain played a crucial role in designing new concepts of industrial symbiosis and demonstrating possible revenue streams that could emerge from valorising textile waste. The outcomes of the research can be used to make effective strategic decisions around which products and processes are feasible and commercially viable at industrial scale, in a circular economy system for waste textile fibres.
Article
We propose a new scenario archetypes method generated by extracting a set of archetypal images of the future from a sample of 140 science fiction films set in the future using a grounded theory analytical procedure. Six archetypes emerged from the data, and were named Growth & Decay, Threats & New Hopes, Wasteworlds, The Powers that Be, Disarray, and Inversion. The archetypes in part overlap with and confirm previous research, and in part are novel. They all involve stresspoint critical conditions in the external environment. We explain why the six archetypes, as a foresight framework, is more transformational and nuanced than previously developed scenario archetypes frameworks, making it particularly suited to the current necessity to think the unthinkable more systematically. We explain how the six archetypes framework can be used as predetermined images of the future to create domain specific scenarios, making organizations more resilient to critical, disruptive futures. We finally present and discuss a case study of the application of the method to create scenarios of post-Covid-19 futures of work.
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While this study identifies the most important key indicators that influence the banking industry, it also attempts to provide a forecast for the Iranian banking industry in the future. Scenario planning and cross-impact matrix are used in this study. Among all the identified factors, 29 key factors influencing the future of the industry were selected through a fuzzy analytical hierarchical process and then the impact of each of these factors was determined through analysis of the cross-impact matrix. The cross-impact balance was then used to write scenarios. Accordingly, of all combined scenarios, the most likely strong scenarios were clustered into five general categories using K-mode clustering. Finally, four scenarios were identified, including optimism for the bank, banking industry development, inflationary conditions and sanctions. It was therefore possible to define action plans for each of the scenarios.
Book
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Most futurists would agree that long term forecasts (35-200 years) are very difficult and many have been discouraged by the failure of the much-heralded Club of Rome Limits to Growth forecasts of the early 70s and the unexpected and sudden end of the Cold War in the early 90s. To celebrate the World's Columbian Exposition in Chicago in 1893 74 noted commentators from many fields were asked to predict what American life would be like in the 1990s. One commentator wrote that by the 1990s most businesses would communicate by means of electric transmissions while another suggested that rising productivity would result in a maximum three-hour workday. This contrast illustrates the central challenge of long term forecasting—any single description or model of the future is almost certain to prove wrong. However a diverse set of future visions may capture something important about the future that will actually transpire but we cannot identify the accurate scenarios at the time we make our forecast. This was the starting point for the Long Term Policy Analysis (LTPA) project of the RAND Pardee Center. The latter's mission is to develop methods to enhance the overall future quality and condition of human life by improving long-range global policy and forecasting methods. The RAND methods consider large ensembles (hundreds to millions) of scenarios; seek robust not optimal strategies; achieve robustness through adaptive strategies and design software and analytic methods for the interactive exploration of the multiplicity of plausible futures. The authors illustrate this approach in detail using the example of global sustainable development. The RAND approach differs from others first in use of computer software to generate many scenarios. Second, it does not seek optimal strategies to achieve somebody's long term expectations but rather near term strategies that are robust in the sense that they perform reasonably well compared to the alternatives across a wide range of plausible scenarios and value systems. Furthermore LTPA strategies must adapt or evolve over time in response to new information so as to shape options available to future generations.
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Shell developed a number of new methodologies to make scenario planning more meaningful to line managers. It also took steps to integrate the learning that takes place at the SBU level into the Group Planning System.
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briefly describe the scenario concept, what technical methods exist for constructing scenarios, and what types of scenarios are to be distinguished / propose a conceptual framework for understanding the cognitive processes involved in the intuitive generation of scenarios / description of retrieval and inference processes based on mental models of causal knowledge (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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Among the many tools a manager can use for strategic planning, scenario planning stands out for its ability to capture a whole range of possibilities in rich detail. By identifying basic trends and uncertainties, a manager can construct a series of scenarios that will help to compensate for the usual errors in decision making—overconfidence and tunnel vision. Through case studies of Interpublic, an international advertising agency, and Anglo-American Corporation in South Africa, the author describes how to build scenarios in a step-by-step process and how to use the resulting stories to plan a company's future. INSETS: They believed it.;Three scenarios for the advertising industry.. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Article
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This contribution discusses centralization vs. decentralization in healthcare strategic decision making, focusing on long-range planning of facilities for radiotherapy. The radiotherapy case illustrates that more centralized, comprehensive, and systematic planning and strategic decisions making may be necessary to account for inputs of various parties and decision-making levels in this area. The expertise required cannot generally be found at a local or even regional level. It requires initiatives from coordinating healthcare institutions such as the Health Council and other professional organizations.
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The subject of this paper is long range planning or policy development for healthcare in the Netherlands. Especially the co-ordinating function of planning will be discussed. In healthcare different actors or stakeholders are involved. Each of these actors may have their own interests, expectations, goals, and knowledge. The main goal of this paper is to discuss the alleged centralisation versus decentralisation dichotomy in healthcare strategic decision making and planning. The development of facilities for radiotherapy is used as an exemplary case for this explorative research. The radiotherapy case illustrates that a more centralised, comprehensive, and systemic way of planning and strategic decision making might be necessary to take into account and balance the different developments, which are relevant for this specific problem field, at the macro level. This kind of strategic process involves inputs from medical specialists and other experts with various disciplinary backgrounds. All relevant knowledge regarding facts and trends on demographic, social, epidemiological, technological, and therapeutic factors, and also those concerning the basic disciplines (such as biology) should be collected and analysed to obtain the insights needed. This expertise can not be found on a local or even regional level. It requires initiatives from co-ordinating boards like the Health Council, but also professional bodies play an important role, next to initiatives from influential and respected individuals.
Article
Modern strategic planning systems increasingly confront two difficulties: strategic information about impending threats and opportunities is perceived too late to permit timely and effective response; and the corporate planning cycle is too long to permit timely response to fast-developing events. In response to the first difficulty, the author develops a technique for early identification of early strategic signals and a method for matching the firm's response to the quality of information. In response to the second problem, a real time planning system, called strategic issue management, is developed.
Article
This article examines how scenarios can be more than a futures studies tool, and looks at the necessary epistemological, methodological, and ethical criteria for such scenarios. The aims that guide scenarios and, hence, those that can spring from a human and social perspective are considered. In the authors' view, scenarios tend to broaden mental frontiers because they are multidisciplinary, multidimensional, and drawn from different experiences, “ways of knowing” and personalities. An overview of the various ways of planning and developing scenarios is presented on the basis of the recent literature on the subject. The overview is followed by a presentation of the basic procedures culled from the authors' own international experience. The need for adaptation and the recognition of differences, such as regional variations, are also highlighted. Common characteristics are described with some illustrative cases, for example, the futures-thinking exercise undertaken by a major religious order. Indeed, the cases reveal how the scenario-building procedure may be adapted to different contexts given its flexibility. The essential message is that the effective use of scenarios requires humility, adaptability, and persistence.
Article
Scenario-making is a common method for anticipating technological and other kinds of futures. This article discusses scenario-making from a methodological point of view. How do we cope with contingency, that is, the problem of not knowing what developmental trajectories in the present will turn out to determine future events? Two distinctions are suggested as tools for analyzing scenario-making strategies. The first concerns the analytical lenses, or epistemic approaches in our terminology, with which the future is understood. The second deals with the degree of variance in the future development. We divide the epistemic approaches to the future into conventional and unconventional scenarios, and the degree of variance in the future development into trend- and event-based scenarios. We argue that both unconventional and event-based scenarios have been neglected as tools for coping with contingency. A case study — the technological system of fish farming in southwestern Finland — is used to demonstrate the difference that unconventional and event-based scenarios can make for representations of the future.
Article
Scenarios are stories that depict some future event. We reviewed the research in which scenarios were created either by researchers or by research participants with or without structured guidelines. Regardless of how scenarios are created, they have been shown to alter people’s expectations about the depicted events. Evidence suggests that the ease with which a scenario is imagined or constructed, or the plausibility of a scenario, upwardly biases beliefs that the depicted event could occur. In some instances, attitudes or behaviors consistent with the altered expectancies have been observed. For example, persons who imagined subscribing to cable television were more likely to have favorable attitudes toward cable television and to subscribe than those receiving standard sales information, and mental health clinic clients who imagined remaining in therapy for at least four sessions were less likely to drop out prematurely than clients who simply received information on remaining in therapy. Practitioners who wish to alter clients’ expectancies regarding specific events can provide scenarios that (a) depict the occurrence of an event using concrete examples (not abstract information), (b) contain representative events, (c) contain easily recalled supporting evidence, (d) contain events linked by causal connections, (e) ask clients to project themselves into the situation, (f) require clients to describe how they acted and felt in the situation, (g) use plausible elements in the story, (h) include reasons why the events occur, (i) require clients to explain the outcomes, (j) take into account clients’ experiences with the topic, and (k) avoid causing reactance or boomerang effects in clients who might resent blatant influence attempts. We make additional recommendations concerning the situation in which clients are exposed to scenarios and the use of multiple scenarios.
Article
This article outlines a scenario planning process for building successful World Wide Web related businesses. In addition to outlining five tips for Internet content providers, the article describes four alternative scenarios for the future of the Internet and identifies the 16 most relevant drivers of those scenarios. The scenarios—written as though it is the year 2000—describe alternative views of how the Internet will be used in the future, which technologies will emerge and which business models will be successful. They describe different environments businesses should prepare for. The drivers are the specific issues that will cause the scenarios to emerge. The five tips are: follow the people; the old Internet is not the new one; be radical; be robust; focus on niches.
Article
Scenarios were not used for strategic decision-making until some time after their introduction. Structured approaches which fully use scenarios for strategy development have only emerged in the last few years. This paper describes such an approach as practised in Shell Nederland and focuses on the business environment with reference to the norms and values. A second paper dealing with the values in more details will appear in the next issue.
Article
By incorporating senior management's scenarios—alternative stories about the competition, markets, capital investments, new technologies—into the planning process, executives can test and build a consensus on the implicit and explicit mental models of their business.
Article
Scenario-making is a common method for anticipating technological and other kinds of futures. This article discusses scenario-making from a methodological point of view. How do we cope with contingency, that is, the problem of not knowing what developmental trajectories in the present will turn out to determine future events? Two distinctions are suggested as tools for analyzing scenario-making strategies. The first concerns the analytical lenses, or epistemic approaches in our terminology, with which the future is understood. The second deals with the degree of variance in the future development. We divide the epistemic approaches to the future into conventional and unconventional scenarios, and the degree of variance in the future development into trend- and event-based scenarios. We argue that both unconventional and event-based scenarios have been neglected as tools for coping with contingency. A case study — the technological system of fish farming in southwestern Finland — is used to demonstrate the difference that unconventional and event-based scenarios can make for representations of the future.
Article
The paper presents a systematic approach for early identification and fast response to important trends and events which impact on the firm. Two versions of such an approach are described: a strong signal and a weak signal strategic issue management system. Strategic issue management, which responds to signals in “real time”, is compared to periodic strategic planning, and criteria for choice among the three are proposed.
Article
Since the 1960s, tremendous emphasis has been placed on developing more sophisticated forecasting techniques which can process large quantities of historical data and produce extrapolations for predicting the future. These techniques, however, have failed in a number of respects including their ability to consider systematically quantitative variables, predict turning points, provide an internal communications tool, and serve as a link between forecasting planning and decision making. This paper discusses a relatively new approach to forecasting, called scenario analysis, and recommends further research to develop this technique. A scenario is a narrative description of a consistent set of factors which define in a probabilistic sense alternative sets of future business conditions. Scenario analysis addresses many of the weaknesses of traditional extrapolative forecasts mentioned above. Several techniques are discussed including intuitive logics (SRI International and Royal Dutch Shell), trend-impact analysis (the Future Group), and cross-impact analysis (INTERAX and BASICS).
Article
Since the oil shocks upset the business world in the 1970s, the use of multiple scenario analysis has been increasingly propagated as an approach to deal effectively with the many long-run uncertainties that surround business organisations. Since its introduction, the scenario approach has undergone some considerable changes and it is now claimed fulfils a diverse range of functions. Newly-added functions include the stretching of managers' mental models and the triggering and acceleration of processes of organisational learning. Although these functions currently get most of the attention in academic and management journals in recent years, a satisfying explanation of how scenarios fulfil these functions is still missing in the scenario literature. The scenario methodology seems to tell only part of the story suggesting that construing and using scenarios ‘simply’ consists of sequentially completing several distinct phases. If multiple scenario analysis really is able to fulfil the wide range of functions ascribed to it another, more dynamic process has to be hidden behind the rather static phase model. The scenario literature does not give any insight into this latter process. This article aims to increase the understanding of multiple scenario analysis by unravelling some of the mysteries surrounding it. For this purpose, the role of scenarios in strategic management is studied from a cognitive perspective. It appears that scenarios can deal effectively with several bottlenecks that potentially hinder organisational learning on a strategic level in organisations.
Article
321 pages, figures, bibliographie Scenarios deals with how managers can set out and negotiate a successful course into the future for the organization in the face of significant uncertainty. Uncertainties about the future are often felt to be uncomfortable and th us "swept under the table" by collapsing them into a single line forecast. This is tantamount to abdication of managerial responsibility. At worst it means a wild jump in the dark. Facing up to uncertainty changes the perspective on the future completely. The secret of success moves from "finding the best strategy" to "finding the best process". Thinking about scenarios - the different plausible future environments that can be imagined - is the key to thinking the process through and to keep thinking about it as the plans for the future unfold. Scenario planning is dynamic. The focus of attention needs to be on the ongoing "strategie conversation", penetrating both the formai and informai exchange of views through whieh the strategie understanding develops - and actions result. Scenarios deals first with the principles of organizational learning and then moves on to describe practieal and down·to·earth ways in whieh the organization can develop its skill in conducting an ongoing scenario·based strategy process. The methods described are based on many years of practical experience of managers in both large and small organizations; and they are grounded in solid logic.
Article
Transl. of: "Prospective et planification stratégique", Paris, Economica, 1985. Incl. bibl.
Article
421 p., fig., ref. bib. : 5 p.1/2 The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight. But, as this book shows, there are methods for coping with unpredictability. The scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Case studies including ICL, British Airways and United Distillers highlight the fact that those who feel scenario planning too 'futurist' to take seriously should take another look at its usefulness in wrestling with the pace of change.
Article
The Smith & Hawken story: the process of scenario-building -- The scenario-building animal -- Uncovering the decision -- Information-Hunting and -Gathering -- Creating scenario building blocks -- Anatomy of a new driving force: the Global Teenager -- Composing a plot -- The world in 2005: three scenarios -- Rehearsing the future -- Epilogue: to my newborn son -- Afterword: the value of a strategic conversation -- Appendix: steps to developing scenarios -- Endnotes -- Scenario planning: select biography
Article
This paper discusses the emergence and development of complex societal problems. Several models and theories from the social sciences are used to analyse them in terms of content and recognition by the media, the public and political decision-makers. These descriptions—which conceptualize societal problems as highly politicized issues and conflicts between stakeholders—have important implications for handling this sort of problem in an OR consulting process, eg in community OR. As complex societal problems behave like moving targets, the consequences for the formulation of appropriate models in such a context are also elaborated.
Article
(This partially reprinted article originally appeared in Psychological Review, 1956, Vol 63, 81–97. The following abstract of the original article appeared in PA, Vol 31:2914.) A variety of researches are examined from the standpoint of information theory. It is shown that the unaided observer is severely limited in terms of the amount of information he can receive, process, and remember. However, it is shown that by the use of various techniques, e.g., use of several stimulus dimensions, recoding, and various mnemonic devices, this informational bottleneck can be broken. 20 references. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Article
A variety of researches are examined from the standpoint of information theory. It is shown that the unaided observer is severely limited in terms of the amount of information he can receive, process, and remember. However, it is shown that by the use of various techniques, e.g., use of several stimulus dimensions, recoding, and various mnemonic devices, this informational bottleneck can be broken. 20 references. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).
Eine Mu ¨nchner Bank verspricht in einem Werbeprospekt ‘‘Jedem das Seine
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  • Reklame
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Anonymous, Reklame mit Nazi–Spruch: Eine Mu ¨nchner Bank verspricht in einem Werbeprospekt ‘‘Jedem das Seine’’, Abendzeitung 5 (2001 January) 4.
Patrolling frontiers: the articulation of the popular Dancing in Spite of Myself: Essays on Popular Culture
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Principles of Forecasting
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J. Scott Armstrong, Principles of Forecasting, Kluwer Academic Publishing, Boston, 2001.
Wettbewerbsanalyse und Strategieentwicklung fü den Markteintritt in die V. R. China—Eine Szenario-Studie fü den Geschä Dental der Degussa-Hü AG, Diploma thesis
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D. Pabelick, Wettbewerbsanalyse und Strategieentwicklung fü den Markteintritt in die V. R. China—Eine Szenario-Studie fü den Geschä Dental der Degussa-Hü AG, Diploma thesis, Witten/Herdecke University. Witten, 2000.
Methodologie und Ideologie, Band I; Suhrkamp
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Eine Mü Bank verspricht in einem Werbeprospekt ''Jedem das Seine
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Anonymous, Reklame mit Nazi – Spruch: Eine Mü Bank verspricht in einem Werbeprospekt ''Jedem das Seine'', Abendzeitung 5 (2001 January) 4.
Eine Art Oktoberfest mit Kü, In welcher Gesellschaft leben wir eigentlich? Panel discussion with C
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Rethinking trends—and how to link them to scenarios, Paper presented at SMS-Conference
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F. Liebl, Rethinking trends—and how to link them to scenarios, Paper presented at SMS-Conference, San Francisco, 2001.
Reklame mit Nazi – Spruch: Eine Münchner Bank verspricht in einem Werbeprospekt ''Jedem das Seine
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