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Scenario workshops: A participatory approach to sustainable urban living?
Abstract
Cities have increasingly become a focus for environmental action, and many governments are in the process of devising strategies for sustainable development in urban areas. However, dissatisfaaction with traditional approaches to environmental policy making has led to the rise of interest in involving the public in the process of plan and policy formulation. This paper provides a brief review of the rationale for increasing public participation in policy making, and focuses on one attempt to do this through the use of scenaario workshops. The experience of the UK town of Preston is used to look at the effectiveness of this approach both in bringing about sustainable urban living, and as a truly participatory approach to policy making.
... In environmental policy, economists, physical scientists, and engineers are typically more influential than anthropologists or political scientists, because the former produce quantifiable facts while the latter explore the qualitative effects of environmental policy choices (Ascher and Healy, 1990;Nightingale, 2016). Technical rationality is also often unable to handle uncertainty (Street, 1997); even when 'scientists directly involved in producing knowledge…admit high levels of uncertainty,' (Keeley and Scoones, 2003, 29) decision-makers may admit lower levels in order to enhance their authority, as seen in the case of global climate change science (Shackley and Wynne, 1996). Therefore, the dualisms assumed by the technical-rational model do not often hold and decision-making is an inherently political process subject to manipulation by those with economic or political power (Adams et al., 2003). ...
... Stakeholder engagement processes are those in which stakeholders are active in decision-making and there is a 'joint decision-making approach to problem resolution where power is shared' (Selin and Chevez, 1995, 190), and 'lay input is inherent to, and integrated with, the process' (Petts andBrooks, 2006, 1048). Owing to the wide range of interpretations of these concepts (Reed, 2008) and the development of frameworks internationally (Bruch, 2004), these processes assume a variety of formats, including scenario workshops, citizens juries and round tables, café approach 6 depending on the context and country of implementation (Konisky and Beierle, 2001;Street, 1997). While stakeholder engagement in environmental processes normally consists of consultation or small-scale, in-depth, discussion-based forums in the developed world, developing countries have used more sitespecific and action-oriented approaches, emphasising empowering communities to make their own environmental decisions (Choudhary et al. 2019; Davies et al., 2005;Reed, 2008;). ...
... A research project on focussed on creation of multi-stakeholder platform in Indian city suggests existence of wicked urbanization with an obvious nexus of real-estate developers and land owners (Ely et al. 2020). Despite the evidences from different parts of the world about the possible contestations and group-interest being pursued in the name of consultations and negotiations, these processes has potential to avoid 'intellectual vacuum of closed-door thinking' (Tilleman, 1995, 343) by acknowledging that citizens' familiarity with their local environments can provide a more complete understanding of dynamic environmental systems along with the social issues in which they are embedded (Reed, 2008;Irwin, 1995;Street, 1997, Bruch, 2004Petts and Brooks, 2006;Berghöferet al., 2008). For example, farmers in Zimbabwe 7 became increasingly influential in the 1990s, following the recognition that Agritex's 8 technical approach had failed and farmers had better understandings of environmental processes (Keeley and Scoones, 2003). ...
... Futures workshops are a common, traditional method for creating futures knowledge on certain topics. They involve participatory methods of knowledge creation, which can be modified for many purposes; for example, participatory workshops have been used to generate futures knowledge to plan more sustainable cities with better facilities and policies (Street, 1997). In addition, knowledge created in futures workshops can be utilized to benefit society, meaning that futures knowledge mobility following workshops is vital. ...
... Other studies have identified similar factors that influence the success and experiences of workshops and should be considered when organizing a futures workshop. The structure of the workshop is important (Lauttamäki, 2016;van Vliet et al., 2012), and participant selection has a major influence on workshop success (Bonsu et al., 2017;Burt et al., 2017;Carlsson-Kanyama et al., 2008;Gunnarsson-östling et al., 2012;Lauttamäki, 2016;Nygrén, 2019;Street, 1997). Participants' personal characteristics can influence the workshop flow and output (Burt et al., 2017), since participants' expertise can limit the discussion and creativity if participants' professional backgrounds restrict their acceptance of other perspectives (Lauttamäki, 2016); however, individual characteristics are often unknown beforehand. ...
... Participants' personal characteristics can influence the workshop flow and output (Burt et al., 2017), since participants' expertise can limit the discussion and creativity if participants' professional backgrounds restrict their acceptance of other perspectives (Lauttamäki, 2016); however, individual characteristics are often unknown beforehand. Workshop facilitators can help to prevent such problems, and thus have an important role for workshop success (Eerola & Miles, 2011;Lauttamäki, 2016;Nygrén, 2019;Street, 1997). An active facilitator can guide participants and support their best performance (Wright & Cairns, 2020). ...
Participatory futures workshops are commonly used to create future‐oriented knowledge. It is essential to understand how to manage futures knowledge to benefit from it and utilize it; however, it is unclear how the knowledge creation process is developed in futures workshops and how the created futures knowledge is mobilized by participants. These questions were answered by an empirical study using participant observation and interview methods. The results showed that futures knowledge is socially constructed through several processes, but individually interpreted, and that individual understanding and personal contacts are vital for knowledge mobilization.
... Moreover, scenarios facilitate participatory planning, which consists of target 11.3 of Sustainable Development Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). Thus, it is useful for contemporary urban practitioners, decision-makers, and stakeholders working in multidisciplinary teams within uncertain and disruptive situations [10,11]. ...
... Scenario-based planning approaches and processes have been comprehensively documented by Saritas and Smith [7], Street [10], Ange et al. [32], Dammers et al. [35], Strelkovskii [36], and Stapleton [37]. In general, they consist of a structured method that evaluates trends, defines long-term future outcomes, and aligns complexities and uncertainties affecting a topic, place, or product. ...
With the ongoing development of increasingly complex and uncertain urban contexts, imagining and envisioning future scenarios have become essential competences in the education of urban planners. We applied scenario planning in a postgraduate studio titled Sustainable Urbanism Project that aimed at facilitating students’ learning and improving their ability to craft context-based and future-oriented urban solutions. We believe that this method effectively guided students with multidisciplinary backgrounds to engage with the subject, enhancing their creativity and capability in co-designing sustainable futures. This paper investigates the expectations and challenges faced by students throughout the project process, discussing the applicability of the method and its outcomes, pitfalls, and advantages. The study highlights the reflective role of scenario planning in urban planning studios to guide students in recognising sustainable and unsustainable scenarios for the future. It is important that scenario planning allows students to fully understand the planning process rather than just focusing on generic planning solutions or interventions.
... In recent decades, humanity has witnessed unprecedented urbanization (Zhang et al., 2019b(Zhang et al., , 2019a. Urbanization is defined as the increased concentration of people in cities and the flow of populations from rural to urban areas (Chan & Hu, 2003;Gu et al., 2012;Ochoa et al., 2018;Ren et al., 2018;Street, 1997;Wang et al., 2019;Zhang & Song, 2003). The United Nations (UN) further defines urbanization as "a complex socio-economic process that transforms the built environment, converting formerly rural into urban settlements" (UN, 2019: 3). ...
... However, quality of life problems could be avoided-or could be less harmful-if more effective strategic planning and effort were put into place from the start (Castanho et al., 2021;Street, 1997). Various authors have suggested strategic planning that guides initiatives and activities as a tool to help managers achieve their organization's objectives (Amrollahi & Rowlands, 2018;Brito et al., 2019;Klag & Langley, 2014;Poister & Streib, 2005). ...
Blight is a concept not commonly discussed. However, blight is a problem that exists in the lives of many people, especially if they reside in urban areas. Blight originates whenever properties are neglected, contributing to both a functional and social depreciation process and ultimately leading to uninhabitable dwellings. Despite being blighted, these properties and surrounding neighborhoods often are occupied by families who fail to have sufficient income to afford residences that meet minimum standards or to live in neighborhoods free from drug trafficking and prostitution or other forms of crime. Blight may spread rapidly, thus, experts must, in a timely manner, analyze its causes, which are essential to preventing and mitigating blight problems. The purpose of this study is to seek an understanding of blight and identify its causal factors. The generic methods commonly applied in previous blight research present limitations that this study aims to overcome by using cognitive mapping and the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) technique. This dual methodology provides a more transparent and less restrictive approach for analyzing and complying with the dynamics of cause-and-effect relationships among variables. Group debate involving a panel of specialists in this field identified six causation clusters based on the experts’ experience and knowledge. The resulting framework and its application were validated both by these specialists and the head of the Territorial and Environmental Assessment and Monitoring Division of Cascais City Council Strategic Planning Department, Portugal.
... The concept of sustainability itself has been understood as providing a considerable degree of adaptability, by entailing a progressive, dynamic and mutable ideal of the future of sustainable cities' (Holden & Linnerud, 2007; Kallio, Nordberg, & Ahonen, 2007; Ratcliffe & Krawczyk, 2011). A widely shared agenda that provides adequate conditions for greening the city while advancing transparent governance (Street, 1997) characterises urban sustainability as an ambitious and purposive task (Tonn, 2007). It requires city-wide investments aimed at knowledge sharing and involving people in designing and implementing based on technological leapfrogging and community-based decentralised knowledge. ...
... Web-platform for creating brand-new sets of data (or feeding existing ones) (ex. Everyaware project, Mapping for Change) 5 Transparency: advancing effective democratic institutions (Street, 1997; UNEP, 2011) Granting access to meaningful information, data and software (Barsotti, 2009). Increase in open-access knowledge and open-data provided by research, political and administrative institutions (ex. ...
https://ugecviewpoints.wordpress.com/2015/08/19/smart-cities-for-smart-citizens-enabling-urban-transitions-through-crowdsourcing/
... Yönetim ve ekonomi bilimleri tarafından yaygın olarak kullanılan senaryo çözümlemesi, beyin fırtınasına ve seçeneklerin tartışılmasına imkan tanıması nedeniyle planlamada da önemli bir uygulama alanı bulmaktadır. Bir kentin ya da bölgenin vizyonu oluşturulurken ve gelişme stratejileri tanımlanırken katılımcı senaryo çözümlemesine sıklıkla başvurulmaktadır (Street, 1997;Khakee, 1999;Helling, 1998;Chakraborty, 2011). ...
... Senaryo ögelerinin seçimi aşamasında, senaryoyu etkileyebilecek hassas güçlerin ve belirsizliklerin ve hangi senaryo olursa olsun gerçekleşmesi kesin olan bileşenlerin saptanması gerekmektedir (Aplak, Köse ve Burmaoğlu, 2010). Senaryo inşa etme sürecine yalnızca sektördeki uzmanlar ya da yöneticiler katılabileceği gibi çok sayıda birey, grup ya da kuruluşun katılımı da olanaklıdır (Bradfield et al. 2005;Street, 1997;Khakee, 1999). Bood ve Postma (1997, 634) senaryo oluşturma çalışmalarında GZTF çözümlemesinin faydalı bir başlangıç noktası olacağını vurgulamaktadır. ...
Participation of citizens in decisions related to their cities and neighborhoods has been discussed within the framework of participatory democracy since the 1960's. Public participation ensures legitimacy and accountability of the decision maker and improves the quality of decisions. On the other hand, debates continue on the impact of participants on the decision and indicators of successful participation. In this study, the participation process executed in order to support the decision process about the revitalization and renewal of an historic pattern is analysed. The area planned for improvement is located in the historical city centre of canakkale, Fevzipasa Quarter, where Romani population live. The project area (Zafer Square and its vicinity) consists of two little squares, a street that links these squares and a part of the Saricay riverside. Although the project area is parallel to the historical carsi Street, which is used intensively by the city residents and tourists, it is a twilight zone. Zafer Square and its vicinity, which contains monumental and civil architectural samples, reflect the multi-cultural and multi-faith history of the city. This area is like a transition region among settlements where Romani people live with its pedestrianized trade axis. The question as to which function this area should have was investigated by the municipality with a participatory method. Previous participatory experiences about Fevzipasa Quarter and historical urban areas enabled a participatory decision-making process to be pursued in relation to this area and facilitated the participation process. Among strategic decision making methods, SWOT analysis and participatory scenario analysis were used in decision making process. The participation process included focus group meetings held with stakeholders, individual interviews, a questionnaire filled by inhabitants of the quarter and tradesmen, and a workshop organized openly for all citizens. Focus groups were determined to be neighborhood residents and shopkeepers, tourism sector, non-governmental organizations and professional chambers, and government agencies. During the participation process which lasted for 3 months, the organization was managed by Canakkale Municipality and the author of this article undertook the duty of facilitating the meetings. Four development suggestions concerning Zafer Square and its vicinity were identified by participants. The first suggestion proposed that this area should be designed in accordance with the needs of the residents. This approach is expressed by both residents and some representatives of the non-governmental organizations. The second suggestion, made by representatives of tourism sector, it is about developing this area with a complete urban tourism strategy. The third suggestion was to transform this area into a cultural activity ground for the city. The fourth suggestion was to maintain its educational function which existed in the past and which was also adopted in recent times. The output of the participation process and current situation were considered, SWOT analysis was performed and two main development tendencies were detected; to develop and maintain the current "housing and education" or "housing and culture" function. Even though the tourism function is discussed considerably, it includes many uncertainties. The preservation of historical environments and the sustainability of the quarter are identified as the primary components, regardless of scenario. Two scenarios are created (A and B scenarios) with an intuitive logic approach. A scenario aims to preserve the current quarter fabric and increase the environmental quality. A scenario can be put into practice in a short time by Canakkale Municipality. It does not require co-operation with other stakeholders. Also, this scenario will ensure an increase in the interaction of the city and neighborhood in the long term. B scenario adopts a strategy where Zafer Square and its surroundings makes a contribution to the cultural tourism of the city, and hosts many cultural activities. This scenario contains a long-term development strategy and requires the cooperation of the urban actors. It also contains a social program that runs in parallel in order to empower the Romani people socioeconomically. Canakkale Municipality preferred A scenario and have partially put it into practice. The participation process created awareness about the area, and the subjects of preserving historical areas and the empowerment of Romans were re-opened for discussion in the city.
... These methods, often referred to as "scenario planning", are not a recent innovation: they were developed in the 1950s in response to the cold war (Kahn and Wiener, 1967), and have been widely used in the corporate world since the 1980s (Millett, 1988). Scenarios and scenario analyses have subsequently become popular approaches for use by planners in the area of sustainable development, with applications to multi-sector economic policy (Rotmans et al., 2000), nature conservation and ecological services (Peterson et al., 2003;Carpenter et al., 2007), greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000) environmental impact assessment (Duinker and Greig, 2007), the environmental impacts of agriculture (Poux, 2006;Reed et al., 2009), desertification control (Patel et al., 2007), and urban development and planning (Street, 1997). ...
... Although the scenario-workshop method usually involves the mixing of policy makers, business representatives, experts, and citizens (Street, 1997;Andersen and Jaeger, 1999;Lienert et al., 2006;Hatzilacou et al., 2007), we decided to set up separate groups for different groups. We also opted for smaller groups (five to eleven persons) in contrast to the scenario groups described in the literature, where each workshop includes between 25 and 40 persons (Andersen and Jaeger, 1999;Hatzilacou et al., 2007;Patel et al., 2007). ...
We discuss methodological issues related to the development of long term future agricultural water demand scenarios. We present the results of original research which combines the use of scenario workshops with quantitative crop water requirement modeling approaches. Using a Southern France case study, we describe four scenarios, debated with farmers and stakeholders during workshops and evaluated in terms of total water demand. Results suggest that socio-economic evolution could lead to a 40% increase of irrigation water demand. From a methodological perspective, the research highlights the mutual benefits for both policy makers and scientists of involving stakeholders in the development of scenarios, using both qualitative storylines and quantitative modeling tools.
... Wicks and Reason (2009) highlight tensions regarding the different perspectives of sponsors and organisers of (eg, upstream initiatives), on one hand, who focus on "demonstrable progress toward identified policy goals" (page 256), and citizen participants, on the other hand, for whom the "issues of concern [relate] to these policy goals but [are] both broader and more immediate, expressed in terms of their experienced ability to contribute effectively" (page 256). The wider institutional and political context, over which many citizens lack influence, conditions and undermines the achievement of satisfactory processes and outcomes (Conrad et al, 2011;Eady et al, 2008;Goven et al, 2012;Street, 1997). ...
... In contrast to the mission statements of the Beacons [and to adapt the words of Wynne (2006)], the 'real use' and institutionalisation of public and community engagement in the ways discussed above has only promoted 'deceived listening'. This merely serves to continue to mask and distract attention from the marginalisation of citizens in the UK from debates and decisions about science, technology, and the environment (Eady et al, 2008;Street, 1997). Moreover, it fails to build on citizens' knowledge or to develop their potential contribution to research or policy. ...
In this paper I set the emergence of 'coinquiry' approaches to public engagement in the context of the apparent inability of conventional arrangements to contribute effectively to the transition to environmental sustainability. I explicate characteristics of coinquiry, which is distinguished from 'upstream engagement', in so doing developing criteria with which to evaluate its application. Examining documentary sources, I identify and critically review projects funded by the UK Beacons for Public Engagement on the topic of environment and sustainability. The conclusion highlights the factors limiting the capacity of the Beacon initiative-and possibly that of similar national initiatives to be undertaken in the future-to attain stated objectives relating to public engagement with environment and sustainability matters and the practice of coinquiry.
... It seems possible to position backcasting approaches in a family of approaches using normative scenarios and stakeholder participation. For instance, Rotmans et al (2000) report on normative scenarios for sustainable areas in Europe in which stakeholders were involved, while Street (1997) reports on the use of scenario workshops as a participatory approach to sustainable urban living. Concerning the latter, which involved four groups, namely citizens, local policy makers, the private sector and technology experts, the scenario workshop approach included (1) creating visions and (2) looking at ways of turning those into reality. ...
... Examples have already been mentioned (e.g. Street 1997, Rotmans et al 2000. An important emerging one is transition management as proposed by Rotmans et al (2001), which currently has a strong influence on environmental policy in the Netherlands. ...
Radical changes to present production and consumption systems, especially in the developed world, are required to achieve sustainable development. Those changes on a system level are often described as industrial transformations, while terms like system innovations or transitions towards sustainability are also used. These require combinations of technological, cultural, social, institutional and organisational changes, while affecting many stakeholders when diffusing into society, and involving complex processes of social change on the long term. Backcasting has been applied in the Netherlands as a participatory approach to identify and explore system innovations towards sustainability, while also aiming at follow-up and implementation in public research, at companies & public interest groups, and at the government. Backcasting can be defined as first creating a desirable (sustainable) future vision or normative scenario, followed by looking back on how this desirable future could have been achieved, before defining and planning follow-up activities and developing strategies leading towards that desirable future. Though quite some results of backcasting
... Workshops are a powerful tool for achieving stakeholder involvement (Street, 1997), are regularly applied and can easily be combined with a CPS approach. Here, we mention local scenario workshops (Andersen & Jaeger, 1999) e.g. ...
... Here, we mention local scenario workshops (Andersen & Jaeger, 1999) e.g. applied on local sustainable living & cities (Street, 1997;Mayer, 1996;Elle et al, 2000), and in the Netherlands for science forecasting (Tijink, 1999) and stakeholder workshops for sustainable technology applied in different need areas in the STD programme (Weaver et al, 2000). However, in fact workshops must be seen as a part of a participatory process design or full approach comprising more aspects than only a single workshop (as was for instance stressed by Mayer, 1997). ...
With a growing world population and increasing global economic wealth, radical changes to our production and consumption patterns are required to achieve sustainable development. Some claim that we have to improve our environmental efficiency by a Factor 4, which would enable the world to double its wealth while halving its environmental burden. Others stress that we will have to fulfil social needs in 2050 twenty times more environmentally efficiently, i.e. by a Factor 20. Obviously, these will require both technological and cultural changes in complex societal transitions towards sustainability. Solutions will have to be found in technological system innovations in combination with profound change in lifestyle and culture, reducing resource-intensive modes of consumption. In this paper we aim to explore how system innovations could contribute to a sustainable development, how they can be initiated in a multi-actor context and it will be briefly explored how they can be linked to relevant stakeholder and innovation theories. System innovations are very complex and characterised here by: the large number of variables; the large number of actors involved; the combination of different innovations, the soft innovations required (e.g. rules, legislation, paradigms, social structures, perceptions); and, the (system) changes when implementing it in society. We will illustrate it with examples and results from both the STD programme in the Netherlands and, the European project 'Strategies towards the sustainable household (SusHouse)'. However, we will focus on the latter using results from the Nutrition or Shopping, Cooking & Eating function in the Netherlands as an example.
... In Jennifer Gidley's [20] typology for future studies, futures workshops are placed on participatory futures that seeks for transformation through engagement and participation. The aim is often to enable sustainable futures (e.g., [4,13,14,16,59]) with an emphasis on assisting decision-making or empowering individuals [45]. Elise Boulding, who ran a series of visioning workshops for peace building with Warren Ziegler in the 1980s [20], was convinced that participation in workshop has a "psychologically empowering effect" ( [10] p. 36). ...
Futures workshop is a participatory futures research method for producing views on futures and facilitating transformation and empowerment. Since different workshop methods are generally considered to have many advantages, they are widely used in various futures contexts. However, there is little knowledge on how futures participation entails empowerment for thinking and acting on futures. This paper studies participants’ futures thinking and action in relation to their workshop experience. As psychological constructs for engaging with futures, the concepts of human agency and futures consciousness are used for the analysis. The study examines two futures workshops organized in Finland for farmers and stakeholders in the agricultural sector using the futures consciousness scale pre-post survey, an open-ended follow-up survey, and thematic interviews. The results of the study show that although there was no statistically significant change in futures consciousness, the workshop experience is absorbed into participants’ daily reality, provoking their uses of futures. By analyzing quantitative and qualitative data, it is thus concluded that the ways in which futures participation empowers futures thinking and action are not, and should not be held, evident. Therefore, it is proposed that regarding their empowerment assumptions, participatory futures methods should perform deeper self-consideration as anticipatory practice.
... However, corporate foresight studies in the urban realm are limited. The focus has predominantly been on policy and governance, as exemplified by the research of Gouache (2020), Dixon et al. (2018), Street (1997), and Inayatullah (2011). An assessment of city foresight projects by Fernández Güell and López (2016) identified four corporate initiatives, and none were documented academically. ...
Urban living is changing. Citizens explore new lifestyles in practice and envision alternative urban futures. Companies, as significant stakeholders in cities, are building urban infrastructure and serving citizens' needs. To succeed in the future, companies must be able to navigate the complexity and diversity of evolving cities. However, former corporate foresight research on cities is sparse. This participatory corporate foresight study examines city life in 2040 by engaging a group of London citizens with a lead user profile. A qualitative multimethod approach, consisting of online diaries, a futures imagining workshop, and in‐depth interviews, explores citizens' images of the future and lifestyle changes. The lifestyle adjustments experienced during the COVID‐19 pandemic period have acted as a catalyst for novel personal and communal futures. The broad range of visions included both continuity and discontinuity, with a moderately optimistic undertone, and featured communal, infrastructural, ecological, and technological aspects of life. These visions emphasized sustainability in multiple areas of life and demonstrated the dynamic relationship of the past, present, and future. The methodological contribution of this paper lies in its multimethod approach, which enabled an agile collection of textual and audio‐visual datasets in both online and face‐to‐face contexts. This agility is particularly relevant in a corporate foresight context, where companies must balance efficiency, depth, and applicability while operating under resource constraints. The article also extends the lead user approach's use from individual products and services to the city environment and urban lifestyle in general.
... The early involvement of citizens in the participatory process is crucial to developing eye-level communication mechanisms between professionals and local residents, which alternates residents from the role that can only passively accept landscape changes to the active designer of the local environment [14]. The participatory workshop is the most common way for individuals to participate in such a participatory practice [15,16]. Through the joint participatory workshop of multiple subjects (e.g., residents, designers, and local governments), the communication between different urban governance parties in the area can be effectively improved [17]. ...
Public participation is crucial in promoting built environment quality. By using Nancuiping park in China as a case study, this research brings attention to the digital twin park compared to the physical replica in a participatory workshop. Using UAV oblique photography, we created a digital twin model of this park and divided it into six layers to better manage and analyze the environment. Bracing the `bottom-up’ design philosophy, in the workshop, we analyzed existing issues in the park and simulated built environment changes, taking suggestions and comments from participants into account to support the decision-making of the park’s optimization. Our digital twin model and physical replica were assessed through a questionnaire in which 59 participants used 3 defined indicators: usability, interactivity, and scenario simulation and visualization quality. The results suggest that the physical replica is easier to use in the participatory design. However, the digital twin model can provide better interactivity and efficient scene simulation and visualization quality. The statistical analysis of the relationship between participants’ feedback on the two models and their sociodemographics (age, gender, and education background) shows that age is a barrier to promoting digital twins for older participants. Meanwhile, the digital twin’s highly interactive features and high-resolution visualization capability were attractive to the younger and well-educated participants. Our study indicates future directions to improve the urban digital twin by incorporating human feedback into the urban model, thus establishing a two-way interaction between the digital system, the physical environment, and human perceptions.
... Various tools are also available for use in the participatory visioning phase of backcasting [49], enabling the involvement of stakeholders and generating the interactivity between participants and subsequently scenario development [65]. Face-to-face stakeholder workshops have been identified as a powerful tool for achieving stakeholder involvement [66] and constitute the most popular technique in participatory backcasting [64,[67][68][69][70][71][72][73]. As a general format, the approach consists of a group meeting which starts with the presentation of the statement of a problem and is followed by semi-structured group discussions for generating ideas and later, through debate or a voting procedure, for identifying priorities and the consensus decision [74,75]. ...
Backcasting is a well-established methodology particularly suitable for analyzing complex problems where the business-as-usual projection is no longer appropriate, which can be used to effectively address the challenges of climate change mitigation in transport. It is characterised by designing endpoints in the future and working backward from these visions to establish policy pathways that can achieve desired futures. The visioning phase, which involves the construction of a set of scenarios describing alternative futures, is the first phase in backcasting, and engaging different stakeholders during the visioning phase is considered an important aspect in transport studies. This paper aims to demonstrate the findings from a participatory visioning exercise carried out as part of a backcasting study on sustainable transport in the islands of Malta. It is based on a methodological approach that combines social practice theory with stakeholder workshops. The visioning exercise resulted in the development of four different scenarios: the business-as-usual scenario and three alternative scenarios for transport in 2050 in Malta; High-Tech Mobility (with a focus on clean technology); Local Mobility (with more local travel and reducing the need to travel over longer distances); and Green and Active Mobility (where active forms of travel are prioritised over motorised forms of transport). In the alternative scenarios, the elements of mobility practices and other social practices influencing mobility have been reconfigured to allow for low-carbon travel and significantly reducing GHG emissions. The results of this study demonstrate how insights from a theory of social practices approach can be utilized to provide narratives for future visions in transport backcasting studies, and how this approach could open new possibilities for the transition towards more sustainable mobility through the reconfiguration of mobility and other everyday social practices.
... • the cultural sub-system (SC), in which the cultural involution aggravates the physical fragility of the cultural heritage and landscape, determining vulnerabilities in the built environment; • the economic sub-system (SE), in which the stakeholders' vulnerability derived from the economic crisis and the stress of economic exclusion, determine a subsistence economy and generate an impoverishment of the market on both a small and global scale [72][73][74]. ...
Many cities globally are incorporating the circular economy model into their development strategies to start transitioning as “circular cities” towards the implementation of human-centred development. In many of them, one of the major challenges is represented by the large presence of cultural heritage being in a state of degradation, abandonment and underutilization, which determines waste conditions not only at physical/spatial level but also at economic level (the presence of subsistence economies) and at a social and cultural level (marginalization phenomena and high rates of unemployment). The perspective of circular economy allows rethinking these waste conditions as an opportunity to reactivate virtuous circuits capable of promoting sustainable development focused on human needs. In this perspective, the paper aims to demonstrate both the importance of participatory approaches in guiding circular and human-centred regeneration processes and of identifying evaluation tools capable of integrating the human and ecological dimension with the economic one. With this aim, a circular methodology is proposed and experimented with in Ercolano (Italy) and in the Bronx (New York), in which the adoption of a participatory approach was central in all phases of regeneration processes, from the identification and analysis of vulnerabilities and waste conditions to the definition of a strategy capable of transforming these limitations into opportunities. A first result is the elaboration of a framework of “Human-Centred Indicators” to monitor and support the adoption of the circular economy strategy toward implementing the “human-centred city”.
... Five concepts are pillar of the Scenario Workshop & Adaptation Pathways (SWAP) approach discussed in this study: the Scenario Workshop planning method (Andersen and Jaeger, 1999;Street, 1997), the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2013), the Participatory Action Research (PAR) approach (Kindon et al., 2007), the Vulnerability framework (Fritzsche et al., 2014) and the Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact, Responses (DPSIR) framework (Kristensen, 2004). This combination of methods has been used for the first time for coastal adaptation (Campos et al., 2016;Vizinho et al., 2017a) and its use for agroforestry adaptation planning required revision and additional steps that in this paper and case studies use are described and discussed. ...
Adaptation Pathways is a decision support tool designed to create adaptation policies under different climate change scenarios. This tool has been used successfully in several sectors and contexts such as coastal and river adaptation, urban heat waves, floods and rural livelihoods but its use in natural resource management, has faced several challenges and limitations. In the sector of agroforestry its use has seldom been done or documented and one of the reasons for this may due to some of its specific challenges. In this study, these challenges were addressed when using the Adaptation Pathways for the adaptation planning of three case studies in the semi-arid Alentejo region, a Mediterranean dryland of southern Portugal. This tool was integrated in a participatory approach combined with the Scenario Workshop method, to plan the adaptation of the agriculture and forestry sector of one municipality (Mértola) and two agroforestry farms (221 ha and 1000 ha). The methodology included, for each case study, 20 interviews, two workshops, literature review, expert analysis and the use of indicators of efficacy of adaptation measures, to define tipping points. The adaptation process and the resulting adaptation plans were evaluated by questionnaire and expert review. This combination of methods has supported the choice of effective adaptation measures for the case studies and when combined with several adaptation pathways and a landscape approach it supported the creation of integrated climate change adaptation plans that are now in implementation. We discuss how this combination of methods deals with limitation to Adaptation Pathways identified in the literature, conclude that the method was able to create adaptation plans that are now under implementation and present avenues for future research.
... Acknowledging the versatility of the concept of scenarios and the discussion about definitions and approaches in the literature (Bradfield et al., 2005;Spaniol & Rowland, 2018;Vecchiato & Roveda, 2010), scenarios can generally be defined as fundamentally different futures that are analytically coherent and internally consistent, encompassing concrete and plausible end states, their surroundings, and the wider environments in a concrete and focused narrative (Bishop et al., 2007;Hirschhorn, 1980;Nowack et al., 2011;Ramirez et al., 2008;Schoemaker, 1993;Wright & Goodwin, 2009). Scenarios are a purposeful basis for further inquiry of, and for imaginatively engaging with, the future: they intend to capture and bound the mental mode of decision-makers, highlight predictability and uncertainty, and reduce the risk of being surprised or unprepared. ...
Contemporary infrastructure networks require large investments especially due to aging. Investment opportunities of network-of-networks are often obscured because current scenarios often concern single infrastructure networks. Major barriers to the construction and use of network-of-networks scenarios are institutional fragmentation and the disconnection of scenario-development phases. This paper aims to construct and enhance the use of network-of-networks scenarios through a participatory scenario process. We employed a hybrid-method approach comprising document analysis, Disaggregative Policy Delphi, and a futures-oriented workshop for five large national infrastructure administrations in the Netherlands. This approach yielded twelve key infrastructure developments for which 28 infrastructure experts provided future estimates. We constructed seven scenarios through cluster analysis of experts' quantitative estimates , qualitative direct content analysis of the qualitative data, and a futures table. The scenarios are: Infraconomy; Techno-Pessimism; Safety; Technological; Missed Boat; Hyperloop; and Green. Our results stress the importance of collaboration: desired scenarios are improbable when infrastructure administrations maintain their current sectoral perspective, whereas an inter-sectoral perspective may generate more investment opportunities. However, these network-of-networks investment opportunities do not simply emerge from network-of-networks scenarios; reasons include administrators' prevailing conception that sufficient optimization capacity remains within their own networks, and that no common ground exists that helps to overcome institutional fragmentation.
... A scenario-based workshop (Box 4) is a participatory method in which the attendees engage in discussion, produce a collaborative plan of action, or build a specific product related to drought management (e.g., a list of planning resources, identification of groups to engage in the planning process, etc.). In a workshop, the drought scenario is used to emphasize the relationship between the effects of drought and decision points (Street, 1997). They can also direct attention to vulnerabilities and gaps in policy and provide a forum for exchanging ideas and interacting with planning experts when time and resources are constrained. ...
Contents Acknowledgements.............................................................................. 1 Contents ................................................................................... 2 1.Introduction......................................................................................4 Objectives .............................................................................................................. 4 Format ................................................................................................................ 5 2. Drought and the Benefits of Preparation .................................................. 6 Drought Basics .................................................. 6 The Effects of Drought ................................................................................. 7 Preparing for Drought ............................................................................................... 9 Scenario Planning and Exercises ................................................................... 10
... Scenario workshops are indicated to interdisciplinary and social issues, involving choices on different situations and exchanges among professionals and locals. The urban sustainability is, therefore, a perfect subject for using the scenarios approach, given its transdisciplinary nature and various stakeholders involved (Street, 1997). ...
By integrating social, ecological, and economic perspectives, the assessment of ecosystem services (ES) provides valuable information for better targeting landscape planning and governance. This chapter summarizes different participatory approaches for assessing ES in urban areas of three countries. In Belo Horizonte (Brazil), a conceptual framework for the vacant lots ES assessment is presented as an attempt to integrate landscape, social, and political dimensions. In Leipzig (Germany), a combination of site surveys, interviews, and remote sensing provides a valuable data set that fostered a comparative study between two forms of urban gardening. In Lisbon (Portugal), the study is based on interviews that offer a social insight into the horticultural parks situation, which in turn demands a better dialogue with the municipality. In general, the studies demonstrate the potential benefits of utilizing the ES assessment approaches on urban landscapes, especially for better understanding the interactions between people and nature in urban sites.
... To prevent or alleviate social acceptance problems, governments could involve citizens, communities and stakeholders more in visioning future transition pathways, selecting preferred innovations, and concrete implementation in specific localities. A wide range of public participation and co-creation methods have gained prominence in the last two decades, including referendums, public hearings, participatory foresight exercises, scenario workshops, consensus conferences, citizens' panels and public advisory committees (Street, 1997;Van de Kerkhof and Wieczorek, 2005 ...
‘Sustainability transitions: policy and practice’ identifies policy options for responding to systemic environmental and climate problems in Europe and globally. Drawing on the the growing body of international research into sustainability transitions, as well as interactions with policymakers and EU institutions, the report sets out 10 sets of messages, outlining how governments and other actors can enable systemic change towards long-term sustainability goals. It also highlights the growing links to established EU policy frameworks and identifies how transitions thinking is being operationalised at different scales across Europe.
Focusing in particular on Europe’s food, energy and mobility systems, the report illustrates the importance of promoting diverse innovations — social practices, business models, technologies — that can trigger new ways of living and thinking. It points to the critical need to empower cities as hubs of innovation and networking, to reorient financial flows towards sustainable and transformative innovations, to navigate inevitable surprises and trade-offs, and to ensure socially fair outcomes.
The report also emphasises that achieving sustainability transitions requires that all policy areas and levels of government operate together to harness the creativity and power of citizens, businesses and communities. Environment and climate policy tools remain essential but transforming systems also requires coherent contributions from many other areas, ranging from research and innovation, industry, competition and trade, to employment, education and welfare.
... In order to develop an effective strategy for the SRBH in Malta in line with the overarching aim of this research, contributions from a wide network of local stakeholders were required. Workshops are a robust instrument for attaining the intimate involvement of stakeholders [61] across a range of disciplines. Quist & Vergragt [21] have demonstrated the success of workshops as a participatory method that enables the opinions, attitudes, perceptions and values of diverse groups to be registered, and allows for ideas to be developed harmoniously. ...
Vernacular architecture has great historical, cultural and architectonic value, but also much potential for reducing energy demand. However, the eco-refurbishment of heritage buildings within Mediterranean countries poses particular challenges. The research presented in this paper is part of a wider study aiming to develop an effective framework for the sustainable regeneration of heritage buildings in Malta, using the 17th-century Presidential Palace of San Anton, Attard, as a case study. This paper focuses on the role of education in this field. Through qualitative research, including workshops with stakeholders, a stakeholders focus group and a public questionnaire, the awareness levels, educational background and attitudes of key stakeholders were analysed and assessed, as was the policy framework within which they operate. Interventions were found to be required at all levels. Increased awareness and education, a supportive policy framework, and a shift in the perceptions and attitudes of several key stakeholders were identified as crucial in ensuring that interventions on heritage buildings do not negatively affect their environmental performance, and/or impact their architectural and cultural value. This paper features recommendations outlining a supportive strategy for improving the knowledge base of stakeholders, including students, professionals, the public, policy-makers and operators.
... Especially for large research and software development projects a common understanding and base knowledge of the challenges ahead is very beneficial. To cement such an understanding, hosting one or multiple workshops is an efficient way of sharing knowledge between stakeholders and to define strategic aims and scenarios of a project (Street 1997). Such workshops can contain (but are not limited to) the following phases: Knowledge acquisition, analysis, and creation. ...
Global trends like urbanization, digitization, and climate change enforce and accelerate the change of personal mobility. New mobility services and growing transportation networks give travelers more choices. Combining traditional mobility services, like trains, with emerging services, like electric carsharing, enables fast, low-priced and environmental friendly journeys. Because of the high complexity of such intermodal itineraries compared to traditional travel, planning and conducting these requires assistance.In this work we describe how an information system providing the required information for intermodal traveling can be constructed. To do so, a revised distributed system architecture and interfaces between the components are required as well as strategies to combine public transportation and sharing services into intermodal itineraries. Based on these findings we show how to give personalized, intermodal route recommendations to travelers to simplify travel planning. Using a combination of content-based and context-aware recommender algorithms we sort a set of intermodal itinerary provided by intermodal travel information systems based on the travelers preferences. The evaluation showed that a personalized travel planning is preferred over a traditional departure timebased travel itinerary sorting. Furthermore, we concluded that a short self-assessment can replace a lengthy training of the recommendation model, to give personalized recommendations to new users. A deep learning recommender rendered a lower recommendation quality compared to a plain recommender model.An intermodal journeys usually includes multiple transfers between diverse mobility services, rendering the journey complex. To assist the traveler while on his or her way, we introduce the intermodal mobility assistance, applying the principle of cascading information. The cascading information principle denotes that only currently relevant information should be conveyed to the user, and by that, simplifying the information processing. This is especially helpful in situations where the traveler is distracted by, e.g., walking. Intermodal implies that not only various public transportation systems are covered but also walking directions and modern mobility schemes like carsharing. The traveler is assisted on the respective device he or she is using at a specific moment. This could be a smartphone during a bus travel, a wearable device while walking, or even a car while using a carsharing service. Evaluations of the respective prototypes show that the approach indeed simplifies traveling and therefore is feasible. In addition we show how to effectively support the traveler in situations when the initial plan cannot be continued because of delays or disruptions in the travel chain. Furthermore, we discuss on how to design and evaluate mobile travel information systems in meaningful ways.
... In addition to adopting techniques from other fields and disciplines (notably systems theory), those in the land planning community have also contributed to the theory and practice of scenario development (Steinitz and Rogers, 1970;Ozbekhan, 1977;Hirschhorn, 1980). Examples to illustrate the range of application include considerations of: sustainable urban living (Street, 1997), possible contexts for implementing federal environmental policies (U.S. EPA, 1975), the planning of a rural watershed (Hulse et al., 2000), farming practices under different patterns of land fragmentation (van Dijk, 2003), and the envisioning futures for the city of Chicago, the region of central Texas, and the state of Utah (Fregonese Calthorpe, 2003). ...
Any alteration of the natural processes occurring on a piece of land will have expected as well as unanticipated effects, and those effects have little regard for arbitrary human boundaries. Consequently, it is not enough for land managers to consider only how they might maintain the parcels for which they are responsible; they must also anticipate how changes to neighboring lands might impact their properties. Land Use Scenarios: Environmental Consequences of Development demonstrates how the success of local decision making is largely determined by factors that are difficult to control or forecast. It shows the importance of geographic vulnerability analysis, which takes into consideration possible scenarios about how, where, and when future patterns of land use might develop. It points to the consideration of critical uncertainties-those aspects of the future, that while difficult to predict, may have a profound impact on pending decisions. Detailing research supported by the United States Marine Corps, the text presents a study of the region of Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton and Air Station Miramar in California. While this area remains largely un-built, but extensively used, ongoing regional growth is having dramatic impact on the land and must be factored into any decision making. This research- • Provides a better understanding of the potential consequences of urban development on native flora and fauna • Describes theoretical concerns prompted by scenario-based projections • Gives an overview of the history of scenario-based techniques for urban and regional planning • Helps define measures for maintaining undeveloped lands in rapidly developing areas In publishing this research, the investigators provide information regarding issues of urban development and possible environmental consequences to stakeholders and jurisdictions whose actions may influence the future of the region. More broadly, the book will aid managers and stakeholders from other areas to engage spatial contingencies toward the goal of developing more resilient landscapes.
... Urbanization generally refers to both the process of population concentration in urban areas and the transformation of rural areas into urban areas (Street, 1997;UN, 2010), and it has become the driving engine for development in 21st century, particularly in those developing countries. The world is in the midst of the largest wave of urbanization in history (Hodson, 2016). ...
... Psychologists and economists study how specific interventions and experiences can affect people's intentions, preferences and subsequent behaviors (Callen, Isaqzadeh, Long, & Sprenger, 2014;Kim & Lee, 2014;Norton, 2017;Prediger, Vollan, & Herrmann, 2014;Sheeran, Klein, & Rothman, 2017;Voors et al., 2012;Webb & Sheeram, 2006). It is also reported that people's preferences and behaviors can be affected by simple circumstantial events or whims, especially when they face unfamiliar situations (see, e.g., List, 2002;Webb & Sheeram, 2006). ...
Brain scientists have established that projecting future events can influence the functioning of human brains and possibly current decisions \citep{a:Schultz:97,a:Gilbert:07,a:Gerlach:14,a:Szpunara:14}. We design and institute a deliberative experiment to test whether the acquisition and experience of intergenerational retrospective viewpoints as one way of projecting future events affect individual preferences for policies. To this end, we employ a case-method approach for forest management policies in Kochi prefecture, Japan, because these environmental issues extend over multiple generations. We prepare two treatments of non-retrospective and retrospective settings where subjects are asked to read through case-method material on forest management and reveal preferences for policies at the individual and group levels through deliberative discussions. Subjects in the retrospective treatment experience a series of procedures to acquire intergenerational retrospective viewpoints, while those in the non-retrospective treatment do not. The results reveal that the acquisition and experience of intergenerational retrospective viewpoints affect individual preferences for forest policies in that the most favored policies chosen by subjects in the retrospective treatment differ from those in the non-retrospective treatment. Subjects in the retrospective treatment tend to choose the policies that fundamentally change the status quo, while those in the non-retrospective treatment show the opposite tendency. Overall, this result suggests that acquiring intergenerational retrospective viewpoints as part of projecting the future could possibly affect ways of thinking and preferences for possible betterment of the future.
... However, the following research gap can be identified: most research falls short on elaborating which participatory methods are particularly suitable for the development of storylines and narratives by stakeholders. Some articles describe the implementation of one specific type of participatory workshop in detail (Street, 1997), but no systematic comparison of different participatory methods has been undertaken up to now. Therefore, there is a lack of evidence about how single participatory methods impact scenario generation (both positively and negatively). ...
Energy scenarios are a tool for exploring possible future developments or states of energy systems. However, traditional energy scenarios mainly concentrate on technological feasibility and economic impacts and lack consideration of social feasibility. Participatory methods, meaning the involvement of external scientists and stakeholders in the scenario development process, can integrate different types of knowledge, perspectives, and values to improve energy scenario development. This paper reports on an approach which is deduced from the strengths and weaknesses of current research applying participatory methods to generate qualitative scenarios. Three different participatory methods - envisioning storylines, futures wheel, and evaluation of narratives - are combined in order to balance the strengths and weaknesses of each of them to create transparent, plausible qualitative scenarios without predisposition. At these three workshops, a total of 25 external and eleven internal participants discussed future developments of the German energy transformation (Energiewende). The paper examines whether this approach overcomes the limitations of current approaches and is ultimately suitable for improving energy scenarios. The findings suggest that a combination of different participatory methods and also a variety of participants help to overcome bias, explore different future pathways in depth, and distinguish between certain and uncertain developments.
Link to access the full paper until February 8, 2018: https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1WFWc_wSRGVeI
... Examples of these methods are Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA), Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) assessments, System Dynamics models (SD), Material Flux Analysis (MFA), Life-Cycle Analysis (LCA), and Biological Potential Analysis (BEPA). Most of these methods are used frequently by think tanks, sustainable planning groups (Street 1997), transdisciplinary project teams, and international panels such as the IPCC. There have been 97 planning teams in these 21 largescale studies including approximately 1300 master students and faculty members working in 97 (i.e., 21 steering and 76 operating) planning groups in the above-mentioned largescale studies. ...
Coping with the multitude of information, relationships, and dynamics of the biotic and abiotic environment is a fundamental prerequisite for the survival of any organismic system. This paper discusses what contribution the Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism (TPF) of Egon Brunswik (1903–1955), which was originally developed for visual perception (including certain cognitive processes) and later for judgment, may provide today. The present paper elaborates that the principles of TPF go beyond the common weighting and regression analysis-based model of information processing that has been associated with the Brunswikian Lens Model. We argue that Brunswik’s TPF rather provides basic principles of how organisms interact with complex environmental systems when processing cues (instead of information) and thus are able to produce evolutionarily stable representations of and judgments about the environment. TPF was formulated with no references to physiological processes. The present paper aims to demonstrate how well these principles correspond with current biophysical and neurophysiological findings, models, and simulations of sensation. We then discuss in what ways planning groups may be seen as organisms and how groups resemble and differ from (biological) organisms on the level of the individual and below. Based on this, we suggest how the principles of TPF can be used to describe planning groups’ activities when constructing planning variants or scenarios for sustainable transitioning. We illustrate the ways in which (under ideal constraints that may be provided in ideal transdisciplinary processes) planning groups follow principles such as vicarious mediation. Here, we reflect on the ways decision theoretic tools (such as Formative Scenario Analysis and Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis) can serve to construct robust (i.e., “evolutionarily stable”) orientations for the future. It is difficult to validate big theories such as TPF. Thus, special attention is paid to the question of how strategies of validation (according to normal scientific principles) for different principles and TPF as such can be developed. We conclude that (in the context of sustainable transitioning) TPF can be utilized from a descriptive, prescriptive, and normative perspective. All three perspectives call for different strategies of validation.
... The second half of the twentieth and start of the twenty-first centuries have seen rates of urbanization that are unprecedented in human history, primarily in the developing world [1,2]. More than half of the world's population, 3.5 billion people, now live in urban areas, whereas, in 1800, the figure was only about 3% [3]. ...
The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of a policy aimed at the removal of a greenbelt on future urban growth. The SLEUTH model was applied to the Seoul Metropolitan Area, South Korea, to predict urban growth under three different greenbelt removal scenarios. The accuracy of the model was verified using historical data with ROC and Kappa statistics of 82.6 and 76.3%, indicating reasonable accuracy. In the scenarios, suburban development grew in proportion to the degree of reduction of the greenbelt. In two of the scenarios, suburban cities in the inner part of the greenbelt were integrated into the metropolitan area. In scenario 3, a complete removal of the greenbelt resulted in the highest rate of projected urban development. The Seoul Metropolitan Area is under continuous developmental pressure, and the sacrifice of a certain amount of protected land to satisfy this demand may be inevitable. Accordingly, effective urban growth management is necessary to promote ecofriendly and sustainable development in formerly protected areas and to strengthen protection in the areas that will remain protected. The model outputs will be used by the government and policy makers to devise a more flexible and sustainable urban growth management policy.
... Scenario workshops are indicated to interdisciplinary and social issues, involving choices on different situations and exchanges among professionals and locals. The urban sustainability is, therefore, a perfect subject for using the scenarios approach, given its transdisciplinary nature and various stakeholders involved (Street, 1997). ...
By integrating social, ecological and economic perspectives the assessment of Ecosystem Services (ES) provides valuable information for better targeting landscape planning and governance. In this chapter, it is summarized different participatory approaches for assessing ES in urban areas of three countries. In Belo Horizonte, Brazil, a conceptual framework for the vacant lots ES assessment is presented as an attempt to integrate landscape, social and political dimensions. In Leipzig, Germany, a combination of site surveys, interviews, and remote sensing, provides a valuable data set that fostered a comparative study between two forms of urban gardening. In Lisbon, Portugal, the study based on interviews offers a social insight into the horticultural parks situation, which demands a better dialogue with the municipality. In general, the studies demonstrate the potential benefits of utilizing the ES assessment approaches on urban landscapes, especially for better understanding the interactions between people and nature in urban sites.
... Nous proposons donc une recherche qui va au contraire chercher à clarifier les paradoxes de ce modèle, en réintroduisant dans l'analyse les rapports de pouvoir et le caractère stratégique du comportement des acteurs et des organisations. Pour ce faire nous proposons de nous appuyer sur une prospective environnementale de territoire (Mermet & Poux, 2002 ;Poux, 2005;Street, 1997). Celle-ci consiste à élaborer des scénarios d'évolution possible du territoire concerné afin d'explorer les tendances lourdes en cours, les inflexions données par certains projets, les germes de changement et les marges de manoeuvre possibles, en s'intéressant tant aux évolutions démographiques, sociologiques, économiques, qu'écologiques ou même climatiques. ...
... In other words, dilemmas offer the potential to provide spaces for deliberation and the creativity of exploiting the opposites (Höijer et al., 2006), since they enable the vetting of ideas and avoid one-sided views on options. Exploiting dilemmas requires comprehending their origin and escaping from the limitations of binary, polarized categories (Storey & Salaman, 2010). Understanding dilemmas helps to deal with complex issues, creating awareness about solutions that realize the potential of various coexisting and often conflicting demands. ...
Dilemmas are pervasive in decision making. Although they offer the potential of reflecting on issues at stake from different perspectives, dilemmas often lead to paralysis for those encountering them. This study presents a three dimensional collaboration tool specifically developed to surface dilemmas in a multi-actor context. The assumption is that revealing and debating dilemmas encourage finding solutions that bridge the apparently competing demands that resulted in dilemmas in the first place. Our tool, called the ‘dilemma cube’, is based on cognitive mapping principles and allows a diversity of participants to share their interpreted actions, effects, and connections among different issues at stake. We tested our tool in a collaborative workshop for a multifunctional land use project in the Netherlands. Our results show that the ‘dilemma cube’ guided participants to share their interpretations about the project, revealing the interdependence of issues at stake. Revealing the socially-constructed nature of dilemmas in multi-actor contexts is the stepping stone to explore strategies that stimulate deliberation, and realize the opportunities of exploiting opposites in light of dilemmas.
... Simultaneously, their evolution can be seen as well as searching for new applications for them. Making use of the scenario approach is becoming more and more popular for shaping sustainable development of municipalities (Street 1997, Camagni 1992, Kok et al 2006, Brown 2002. Amongst the most important arguments for using the scenario methods at the local level, the following should be mentioned: ...
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the usefulness of applying scenario methods in shaping the processes of development in municipalities, in which special determinants for development are related to the occurrence of especially significant natural values, i.e. municipalities with the Natura 2000 protected areas. The article presents the methodology and scenarios of economic activities development in municipalities located in Natura 2000 protected areas. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest analiza przydatności metod scenariuszowych w procesie kształtowania kierunków rozwoju gmin, w których czynnikami determinującymi są szczegóne walory przyrodnicze, np. gmin położonych na obszarach Natura 2000. Opracowanie prezentuje metodologię budowania scenariuszy rozwoju oraz przykłady scenariuszy rozwojowych gmin z obszarami Natura 2000.
... This implies the need to include relevant stakeholders in the policy design process, which will actually reduce the need for such activities after the adoption of a certain policy instrument. Traditional approaches to policy making which are based solely on expert opinions need to be replaced by a full scale participatory approach, as it is the only approach that takes into account social (and cultural) dimension of the problem and leads to achieving understanding and practical action [25]. ...
The concept of energy efficiency market as basis for energy efficiency policy making enables better understanding of the overall environment where policy needs to be implemented. Based on the market assessment, policy makers are faced with the challenge of designing policy instrument that will release identified brakes to energy efficiency. Following the market assessment, the framework for design of policy instruments and measures needs to be established. It uses a theory-based approach to provide the insight in the supposed operation of an instrument or measure and integrates the evaluation of impacts already in the design phase. In this paper, the authors categorized policy instruments in several categories and additionally described which side of the market they address and in which typical development stages of the market development their application is the most needed. For every step in the process, indicators are defined and success or failure “values” of these indicators determined. This approach can give clear picture to the policy makers what needs to be monitored and evaluated ex post . This ex post evaluation will enhance the knowledge of instrument's operation. In this paper, the authors established a detailed theory (theory-based approach) on how the instrument is supposed to work. Although this theory-based approach is known and utilized in project management, it is not mainstreamed in energy efficiency policy.
... "Sustainable cities ensure continuity in change with a harmony of socioeconomic, environmental and energy concerns" (Street, 1997) Yazar (2006 also emphasized this harmony and added that the city adopting a development approach which prevents the depletion of natural resources after their usage over their carrying capacities are also defined as sustainable cities (Yazar, 2006). Additionally, sustainable urban development refers to urban development which human needs are met equally and efficiently and also ensures the maintenance of this situation and environment for current and future generations living in the urban boundaries. ...
... Therefore, a large variety of stakeholders, representing diverse social interests, should be involved in planning activities from the onset [25,26], including businesses, political institutions, national governments, and households. Previous research on dynamic market systems has highlighted a variety of different participatory approaches that can be used to assess future activity: Delphi panels [27,28], scenario planning [29], stakeholder analysis [30], and participatory workshops [31,32]. Thus, effective coordination of these forms of analysis would enable successful transitions from current mobility systems to more advanced systems, by predicting numerous challenges for multiple actors. ...
... Several methods for stakeholder involvement in scenario development have been proposed (e.g. [20]). Within earth sciences, participatory scenario development is recently gaining importance. ...
... The backcasting approach is not the only that combines normative futures and stakeholder involvement for working on sustainable development. For instance, Rotmans et al (2000) report on an approach on normative scenarios for sustainable areas in Europe in which stakeholders were involved, while Street (1997) reports on the use of scenario workshops as a participatory approach to sustainable urban living. Concerning the latter, which involved four groups, namely citizens, local policy makers, the private sector and technology experts, the scenario workshop approach included (1) creating visions and (2) looking at ways of turning those into reality. ...
... Araştırmacılar sürdürülebilirliği değişik bakış açılarına göre farklı biçimlerde tanımlamışlardır. Street (1997)'e göre sürdürülebilirlik devamlılığı ve değişimi ortaya koymak için, sosyo-ekonomik endişelerin enerji ve çevre ile ilgili endişelerle uyumlu hale getirilmesi olarak tanımlanırken, Harris (2000) sürdürülebilirliği tüketimden elde edilen yararın maksimizasyonu ile refahın artırılması olarak tanımlamıştır. Wheeler (2000)'e göre ise sürdürülebilirlik, insan sağlığının ve ekolojik sistemin uzun vadeli gelişimidir. ...
... The authors have found that CoD is effective at creating a sense of trust between Native American communities that have been historically traumatized when it comes to working with outsiders because the Co-Design workshops create an environment where tribal members not only express their needs, but also actively utilize their local knowledge to co-design solutions to meet those needs. In terms of creating participatory workshops and methodologies, Street (1987) [35] and Fraser et al. (2006) [36] found that community members involved in workshops gained a better understanding of the concerns across their community. Moreover, the community participants felt that they were more empowered to actively address the concerns facing their community when a larger and more complete list of indicators for environment impact assessment (EIA) were generated by both community members and experts in participatory workshops. ...
This paper describes the co-design methodology created by the authors to partner with communities that have historical trauma associated with working with outsiders on projects that involved substantial use of engineering and science—renewable energy technologies, for example—that have not integrated their value system or has been historically denied to them. As a case study, we present the lessons learned from a partnership with the Pinoleville Pomo Nation (PPN) of Ukiah, CA and UC Berkeley’s Community Assessment of Renewable Energy and Sustainability (CARES) team to develop sustainable housing that utilizes sustainability best practices and renewable energy technology as well as reflect the long-standing culture and traditions of the PPN. We also present the Pomo-inspired housing design created by this partnership and illustrate how Native American nations can partner with universities and other academic organizations to utilize engineering expertise to co-design solutions that address the needs of the tribes.
... Wikileaks (Coleman, 2014)), and that have made government data protection vulnerable to the collective hacking of web activists. At the same time, citizen groups have become less vulnerable because transparency induces self-correcting behaviour, empowers advocacy, and requires consistency, quality and inclusion (Sharma, Kankanhalli, & Taher, 2013). ...
... Nous proposons donc une recherche qui va au contraire chercher à clarifier les paradoxes de ce modèle, en réintroduisant dans l'analyse les rapports de pouvoir et le caractère stratégique du comportement des acteurs et des organisations. Pour ce faire nous proposons de nous appuyer sur une prospective environnementale de territoire (Mermet & Poux, 2002 ;Poux, 2005;Street, 1997). Celle-ci consiste à élaborer des scénarios d'évolution possible du territoire concerné afin d'explorer les tendances lourdes en cours, les inflexions données par certains projets, les germes de changement et les marges de manoeuvre possibles, en s'intéressant tant aux évolutions démographiques, sociologiques, économiques, qu'écologiques ou même climatiques. ...
On désigne aujourd’hui communément sous le terme d’arganeraie un ensemble territorial assez vaste, situé dans le sud ouest marocain, entre l’Atlantique, les dernières montagnes de l’Atlas et les portes du Sahara. Ce territoire s’étend sur près d’un million d’hectares et doit son nom à la présence d’un arbre dont les caractéristiques attirent depuis près de deux décennies chercheurs, développeurs et entrepreneurs de tout poil : l’Arganier (Argania spinosa (L.)). Il assure en effet une variété de biens et services remarquables qui peuvent expliquer en partie cet intérêt : formation d’écosystèmes uniques au monde (seule station mondiale d’arganier), participation importante aux systèmes de production paysans locaux et potentialités de valorisation économique des noix d’argan à travers l’essor international du commerce d’huile d’argan, à fins cosmétiques ou alimentaires. Ce territoire fait donc se croiser et se recroiser enjeux économiques, environnementaux et sociaux.
Des enjeux sociaux d’une part, caractérisés par une pauvreté rurale importante et des indicateurs de développement humain très faibles. Les 4 provinces concernées par la présence de l’écosystème arganeraie se classent ainsi parmi les plus pauvres du royaume, et ce quel que soit l’indicateur considéré (Banque Mondiale, 2004). La région est aussi très faiblement urbanisée et l’essentiel de l’économie rurale repose sur l’exploitation familiale et la complémentarité entre différents ateliers de production : élevage caprin, céréaliculture en sec, exploitation des arganiers. Chacun de ces ateliers dépend de manière plus ou moins forte de l’exploitation de l’arganeraie : fourrage foliaire et parcours sous forêt pour les caprins, labour sous forêt pour la céréaliculture en sec, production de noix et de bois de feu par les arbres (Bourbouze & El Aïch, 2005).
C’est autour de cette dépendance des systèmes de production locaux à l’arganier que se cristallisent en second lieu les enjeux environnementaux. Cette exploitation intensive des arbres mènerait en effet à une dégradation importante de l’écosystème (PNUD, 2003), dont la préservation est présentée comme un enjeu majeur pour au moins deux raisons :
- L’écosystème assure un rempart contre les processus de désertification arrivant du Sud ;
- Il représente la seule station mondiale d’arganier et possède de ce fait même une forte valeur d’existence .
Enfin, la valorisation relativement récente (un peu moins d’une vingtaine d’années) de l’huile d’argan et le succès grandissant de sa commercialisation à l’échelle internationale placent l’ensemble de la zone productrice au centre d’enjeux économiques importants .
Pour tenter d’intégrer la diversité des acteurs et les enjeux qu’ils défendent dans une vision plus globale du territoire, une Réserve de Biosphère a été créée en 1998, sous la tutelle de l’UNESCO.
Au cours des dernières années, la possibilité d’embrasser l’ensemble de ces enjeux par une politique unique de valorisation de la ressource « huile d’argan » a été promue et intégrée par de nombreux acteurs. L’équation est simple, au moins d’un point de vue conceptuel : valoriser sur les marchés internationaux une ressource telle que l’huile d’argan permettrait, par les retombées économiques que cela engendre, d’élever le niveau de vie des populations et de réduire leur dépendance à l’écosystème arganier dans son ensemble ; il en résulterait une diminution de la pression exercée sur les arbres et donc indirectement la possibilité de préserver l’écosystème par des mesures restrictives aux conséquences sociales devenues moindres. L’intérêt économique de la ressource « arganier » constituerait de plus une incitation forte à leur protection par les populations elle mêmes, qui en percevraient les dividendes.
Ce « modèle de développement durable » a l’avantage de rassembler l’ensemble des parties prenantes autour d’une même idée fédératrice : Haut Commissariat aux Eaux et Forêts et à la Lutte Contre la Désertification (en charge de la protection des écosystèmes), projets de développement financés par l’aide publique au développement (Union Européenne, coopération Allemande), entreprises privées de transformation et commercialisation de l’huile d’argan (Absim, etc.). Il est par ailleurs largement encouragé au niveau international, en particulier dans le cadre de la mise en œuvre de la convention sur la diversité biologique (CBD).
Pour autant, sa validité semble pouvoir être discutée au regard de premiers résultats portant d’une part sur les faibles retombées locales du développement de la filière huile d’argan et de l’autre sur le lien entre fonctionnement des systèmes de production et dégradation de l’arganeraie. En effet, les analyses économiques menées par (Lybbert, 2007, Lybbert & al., 2002) montrent que les retombées économiques de la commercialisation à l’échelle internationale sont plus que minimes pour les populations locales. Les nombreuses coopératives féminines créées sous l’impulsion de l’aide publique au développement ont cependant tenté d’infléchir le processus et de permettre à une part plus importante de la plus value de rester sur place. Le principe est relativement simple : permettre aux femmes – car ce sont traditionnellement elles qui sont en charge de la transformation des noix en huile – de s’assurer un revenu décent et éviter que la plus value s’échappe hors de la zone de production, même si les modalités de fonctionnement diffèrent grandement d’une coopérative à l’autre. Dans tous les cas, si les coopératives permettent effectivement d’assurer un meilleur revenu aux femmes que lorsqu’elles travaillent pour une entreprise privée, l’essentiel de la plus value réalisée au long de la filière ne reste pas dans la zone de production et est réalisée à l’aval de la filière (Guyon, 2008).
Par ailleurs, d’un point de vue environnemental, la logique défendue par ce « modèle » peut elle aussi être questionnée. Il postule que la diminution de la dépendance des systèmes de production locaux à l’écosystème « arganeraie » permettrait de limiter sa dégradation, l’action des paysans en étant la principale cause. Or, à l’échelle de l’ensemble de l’aire de répartition de l’arganeraie, les principales pertes nettes (c'est-à-dire la disparition pure et simple des arganiers) se localisent dans la province d’Agadir. Les défrichements y sont la cause non des pratiques paysannes mais bien de l’urbanisation non contrôlée et principalement liée au développement du tourisme de masse autour d’Agadir, et de l’extension des cultures maraîchères sous serre destinées à alimenter le marché européen hivernal en légumes (PNUD, 2003). Par comparaison, la zone de Smimou, caractérisée par une faible urbanisation et une prédominance de l’élevage caprin dans les systèmes de production, a subi au cours des 25 dernières années une perte probablement inférieur à 2 arbres / 1000 ha (Demoulin, 2008).
D’autres études menées à l’échelle des peuplements et à l’aide d’indicateurs de qualité des écosystèmes montrent que les fonctionnalités écologiques des peuplements d’arganiers gérés et exploités par les paysans sont souvent meilleures que celles des peuplements collectifs sous tutelle de l’administration forestière (Tarrier & Benzyane, 2003).
Le modèle de développement durable proposé, faisant de la valorisation économique de l’huile d’argan un levier à la fois du développement socio-économique de la région et de la protection des écosystèmes, souffre donc d’un certain simplisme au regard de la situation étudiée. Nous proposons donc une recherche qui va au contraire chercher à clarifier les paradoxes de ce modèle, en réintroduisant dans l’analyse les rapports de pouvoir et le caractère stratégique du comportement des acteurs et des organisations. Pour ce faire nous proposons de nous appuyer sur une prospective environnementale de territoire (Mermet & Poux, 2002 ; Poux, 2005; Street, 1997). Celle-ci consiste à élaborer des scénarios d’évolution possible du territoire concerné afin d’explorer les tendances lourdes en cours, les inflexions données par certains projets, les germes de changement et les marges de manœuvre possibles, en s’intéressant tant aux évolutions démographiques, sociologiques, économiques, qu’écologiques ou même climatiques.
... Further, a distinguishing attribute of the method and scenarios proposed in this paper is the aim to simplify and facilitate decision-making based on the integration of both expert work and public surveys. Further, the scenario generation allows and uses iterative runs as a way to address both (i) the need for policy-action continuity and (ii) successive updates in expert knowledge or/and public priorities as identifiable, e.g., via 'scenario workshops' [57]. By definition these scenarios fall into the category of 'action-based scenarios' [37], because they always have in mind that decisions must be taken. ...
This paper explores an innovative policymaking tool known as “Open Studios”. This is a participatory, multi-disciplinary two-day workshop which allows open discussion, interaction, and solution development between end users, researchers, and experts in a field. Taking into consideration issues on accessibility, equity, and scarcity of green spaces in urban centres, we developed and applied a new model of community building which is bottom-up, locally managed, and adaptable to the needs of its users: the “Ecosystems of Care”. We present the main features of this new way of organizing and structuring green urban areas, as well as our observations from two pilot projects which were created to understand the feasibility and applicability of this idea. We conclude by reflecting on our lessons learned from these applied experiments, the potential of Ecosystems of Care for improving the wellbeing of the population and look at issues related to their replicability and long-term sustainability.
In this module, I describe a set of generalized models that are borne in practice and further consolidated by abstract analysis and by being confronted with the extant literature and other practical experiences.
As an introduction, Brunswick Lens Model of, cognition based neurointegral, decision making was the first attempt (with application of non-determinist, probabilistic processes) towards computational a probabilistic advance to neurointegral decision making (cognito conduct of human beings with cues or indicators / variables) through use of linear regression. The fundamental argument of this replicate is that a restricted set of pointers (use of assortment of indications) can be mapped aligned with a neurointegral decision objective (ultimate neurointegral decisions) all the way through a weighting design. Aim of this paper is to reflect upon heterodoxies and disruption neuromanagement preferred Brunswik-oriented neurointegral decision making process that marks commitment to obdurate intention. The aim is to decipher an interdisciplinary-oriented neurointegral peep into dynamics of challenges in neuromanagement preferred Brunswik-oriented neurointegral decision pathways that establish a parallel connecting risk-oriented pattern with preferred Brunswik-oriented neurointegral decision-making performing as moderator. Scope was to include students in a study to decode the absorption quotient of Students in a classroom with reference to ergonomics and related factors. Study attempts to examine the contrast between unswerving, univocal, realistic arch in a multifaceted process of unambiguous conciliation. Methodology adopted is an eye tracking experiment (with cues or indicators / variables) of students to gauge cognito-ocular indices and attention during discourse of knowledge transaction. Results indicate that Lens Model of Brunswik (1956), descriptive conceptualization of the human decision process, does influence cognition and attention through; information in decision situation, actual decision made and optimal or correct decision which should have been made in that persnickety condition. Recommendations include eye tracking of all Students before commencing a course of Instruction in a Subject / Class.
New types of human capacities will be needed to achieve sustainable futures within our planet's limited boundaries. The capability of futures thinking, i.e., futures literacy is among the required proficiencies. This research explores how engaging in futures studies methods develops the futures literacy of upcoming city developers. Four student test groups, with altogether 373 participants, took part in futures studies lectures and workshop activities in two countries. This study considers the ability to participate as the first step towards empowerment. Following participation, the three levels of futures literacy (Awareness - Discovery – Choice), should be reached. Finally, futures literacy brings with it the possibility to participate, closing this loop of empowerment. The study finds that the employed futures activities delivered these levels and loop of empowerment within the test groups students. This paper provides a practical framework of concepts with which the futures methods can be used as a systematic, participatory approach to explore futures and drivers of change, with a link to action. The findings are equally useful for higher education teachers, attempting to engage students in action and practising city developers aiming for a higher level of empowerment in their communities.
Developed societies have for long been engaged in finding ways to increase, deepen, and strengthen their social capital levels as a means to sustain institutional quality and their overall growth potential. However, this is a multifaceted and complex task, especially when linked to urban sustainability. Analysis of social capital as a spatial phenomenon is rather limited, despite the commonly held view that locally embedded associations, partnerships, and initiatives can foster community empowerment and regeneration by building and sustaining well-functioning communities. To that extent, social capital is inexorably linked to the territorial capital that regions and localities might mobilize toward addressing the wider social, economic, environmental, and developmental challenges that they face. Within this context, the present study analyzes the civic engagement pattern of urban residents in Greece and tests for the effect of soft social capital constructs such as social trust, social altruism, equality, tolerance, and humanitarianism, upon this pattern. Analysis is based on microlevel data drawn from the European Social Value surveys round 4 (2008) and round 5 (2010). Results show that, while controlling for the sociodemographic and economic profile of respondents, the onset of the economic crisis in the country has negatively affected the social capital scores of both urban and nonurban residents, with urban residents showing higher levels of civic engagement compared to nonurban residents.
Cities are the most complex dynamic systems in a continuous state of change. Urban conditions are very different from city to city, and their development is becoming a critical challenge. In developing countries, unplanned and unregulated urban growth is inviting risk in urban areas due to increased vulnerability. The urbanization is projected to increase multifold, and there would be a large-scale shift of rural population to urban areas and consequent growth of urban conglomerates. Therefore, urban disaster risk reduction will pose a challenge to the policy makers, administrators, and other stakeholders. Insufficient participation of key stakeholders in planning and management due to weak governance is one of the significant urban risk drivers. Planning, management, and regeneration based on CCA/DRR principles and governance are important aspects for resilient and sustainable development in the urban areas.
This HDR deals with economic approaches of groundwater management. The document describes a scientific career path made in applied research centres. My work is adressing public policy issues and it is firmly rooted into physical and human realities of numerouys case studies. It deals with four main issues: 1) the analysis of conflicts over water management at the watershed level; 2) the design of economic instruments for regulating water use; 3) economic assessment of groundwater protection policies against pollution; and 4) modeling and simulation of long term evolution of the water resources - users complex system, in a context of global change. These issues are addressed using concept and tolls from neoclassical microeconomics, public economics, public economicsand environmental economics.
The notion of developing sustainable communities is generally accepted as a way to reduce the negative environmental impacts associated with human activities, increase the health of citizens, and increase the economic vitality of communities within a country. In order to further the development of sustainable communities, federal and local governments have placed significant attention upon designing sustainability and renewable energy technologies, such as photovoltaic (solar) and grey water recycling systems to reduce (1) fossil fuel based energy consumption, (2) water consumption, and (3) climate changing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated anthropogenic activities. The Pinoleville Pomo Nation (PPN) of Ukiah, CA, is an example of a Native American government and community that has embarked upon an infrastructure development program to design and build culturally appropriate, sustainable housing for its members. This paper describes the co-design methodology created by the authors to partner with communities that have historical trauma associated with working with outsiders on projects that involved substantial usage of engineering and scientific artifacts, renewable energy technologies for example, that have not integrated their value system or has been historically denied to them. As a case study, we present the lessons learned from a partnership with the Pinoleville Pomo Nation and UC Berkeley’s Community Assessment of Renewable Energy and Sustainability (CARES) team to develop sustainable housing that utilizes sustainability best practices and renewable energy technologies as well as reflect the long-standing culture and traditions of the PPN. We also present the Pomo-inspired housing design created by this partnership and illustrate how Native American nations can partner with universities and other academic organizations to utilize engineering expertise to co-design solutions that address the needs of the tribes. As a result of this partnership, the Pomo-inspired house design was utilized to secure federal funding to create housing that will aid the PPN in their tribal sovereignty, economic self-sufficiency, and environmental harmony goals.
While environmental change and policy responses to environmental threat have attracted considerable attention from government and industry over the past decade, conventional approaches have tended to be individualistic, naturalistic and government-led in orientation. This article considers a perspective on ‘sustainable development’ which emphasizes citizen-led initiatives. In particular, the possibilities for ‘bridging the gap’ between innovation processes and the implementation of technology are discussed. Three European case-studies are presented of a constructive and citizen-led ‘social management’ of environmental change—urban ecology, wind energy and science shops. Conclusions are then reached about the policy and theoretical significance of these social experiments.
Urbanization spreading
- Wilken
Approaches to environmental auditing in local authorities: key factors in an effective audit
- Penney
Technology on Trial: Public Participation in Decision Making Related to Science and Technology
- OECD
The Public Understanding of Science
- The Royal Society
The Common Inheritance: A Summary of the White Paper on the Environment
- British