Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: a Ricardian approach. Glob Planet Chang

Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA), Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa
Global and Planetary Change (Impact Factor: 2.77). 07/2005; 47(2):143-152. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.10.009


This study employed a Ricardian model to measure the impact of climate change on South Africa's field crops and analysed potential future impacts of further changes in the climate. A regression of farm net revenue on climate, soil and other socio-economic variables was conducted to capture farmer-adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on agricultural data for seven field crops (maize, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and soybean), climate and edaphic data across 300 districts in South Africa. Results indicate that production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Temperature rise positively affects net revenue whereas the effect of reduction in rainfall is negative. The study also highlights the importance of season and location in dealing with climate change showing that the spatial distribution of climate change impact and consequently needed adaptations will not be uniform across the different agro-ecological regions of South Africa. Results of simulations of climate change scenarios indicate many impacts that would induce (or require) very distinct shifts in farming practices and patterns in different regions. Those include major shifts in crop calendars and growing seasons, switching between crops to the possibility of complete disappearance of some field crops from some region.

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    • "Therefore, it is essential need to appraise the possible influences of climate change on rice productivity to assure food security and economic growth. The influences of climate change on agriculture have been studied on developing countries earlier (Lansigan et al., 2000;Chang, 2002;Gbetibouo and Hassan, 2005;Kurukulasuriya and Ajwad, 2007;Kabubo-Mariara and Karanja, 2007;Haim et al., 2008;Sanghi and Mendelsohn, 2008;Deressa and Hassan, 2009;Moula, 2009;and Wang et al., 2009). From those studies, it is revealed that the crop yield is more prone to climate change in developing countries. "

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    • "This model takes into account the direct impact of climate on yield and the indirect substitution of inputs, activities or any potential adaptation to different climate. Due to the lower cost of such analysis, Ricardian models have been largely used to estimate the cost of climate change in the developing world (Deressa, 2006; Gbetibouo & Hassan, 2005; Kurukulasuriya & Ajwad, 2007; Liu, Li, Fischer, & Sun, 2004; Mano & Nhemachena, 2007; Molua & Lambi, 2007; Seo & Mendelsohn, 2008b; Seo, Mendelsohn, Dinar, Hassan, & Kurukulasuriya, 2009). Indeed, the developing world is often highlighted to suffer the most from climate change. "
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    ABSTRACT: We apply the Ricardian approach to analyse the economic impact of climate change on agriculture using the 2007World Bank Tajikistan Living Standards Survey. The study analyses data of 2557 farm households in 166 villages across the 10 agroecological country zones. In general, the results indicated that increasing temperature and precipitation will both be damaging to Tajikistan agriculture and consequently to the net revenue (NR) of farmers in the medium and long term. Regressing NR on climate parameters, household and soil variables showed that these variables have a significant impact on the farmers’ NR per hectare. We examined the impact of the current climate on farmers’ NR per hectare, and how that is affected by future climate scenarios: one +2.9°C warming and one 4.6°C warming scenarios. Although the analysis did not incorporate variables such as the carbon fertilization effect, the role of technology or the change in prices in the future, significant information for policy-making can be extracted. Tajikistan has very diverse regions in terms of geography, population density and socio-economic situation; our results will help policy-makers to anticipate the adaptation effort needed in different locations of the country.
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    • "Igualmente, el clima mundial ha cambiado desde la época preindustrial, donde la temperatura se ha incrementado en un 0.3 a 0.6ºC (Chakraborty, Tiedemann, & Teng, 2000), mientras que el IPPC predice con el actual escenario de emisiones, la temperatura media mundial podría aumentar entre 0.9 y 3.5ºC para el año 2100, sin embargo, hay muchas incertidumbres que influyen en estas predicciones (Chakraborty et al., 2000; González & Velasco, 2008; IPCC, 2007). Para Andrade (2008) tres décadas de datos globales no son suficientes para entender a cabalidad variaciones más lentas en el clima de la Tierra, sin que esto signifique, que como humanidad no conozcamos lo suficiente para establecer ciertas conclusiones del análisis de los cambios medios de anomalías de temperatura y precipitación asociadas a desviaciones extremas, que producen un aumento de temperatura y precipitación, esto es producto del calentamiento global del planeta (Gbetibouo & Hassan, 2005; IPCC, 2007). "
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    ABSTRACT: El cambio climático viene alterando las condiciones del clima local; siendo los parámetros más sensibles las temperaturas extremas y las precipitaciones pluviales; por ende se investiga los efectos del cambio climático en la agricultura de la cuenca Ramis evaluando el comportamiento de las variables climáticas y su consecuencia en la actividad agrícola del altiplano peruano. Se trabajó con las series históricas de temperaturas extremas y precipitaciones pluviales de 46 años de las diez estaciones meteorológicas seleccionados en base a longitud de las series, estaciones con datos faltantes y la consistencia, posteriormente se sistematizó, corrigió y completó en base del análisis de homogeneidad, luego se determinó las tendencias con las pruebas no paramétricas y paramétricas con 0.01, 0.05 y 0.10 niveles de significancia y análogamente la información de rendimientos de los cultivos. Las temperaturas máximas tienden a incrementar en 0.04ºC anualmente, las medias muestran un incremento anual de 0.025ºC con evidencia leve y las mínimas no muestran cambios significativos; mientras que las precipitaciones pluviales tienden a disminuir, y estos generan impactos significativos en los cultivos. Finalmente, que el cambio climático viene afectando a los parámetros de temperaturas y precipitaciones, y esto influye negativamente en el rendimiento de los cultivos en el ámbito de estudio así coinciden varios investigadores.
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