No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations
Abstract
Climate change creates new challenges for biodiversity conservation. Species ranges and ecological dynamics are already responding to recent climate shifts, and current reserves will not continue to support all species they were designed to protect. These problems are exacerbated by other global changes. Scholarly articles recommending measures to adapt conservation to climate change have proliferated over the last 22 years. We systematically reviewed this literature to explore what potential solutions it has identified and what consensus and direction it provides to cope with climate change. Several consistent recommendations emerge for action at diverse spatial scales, requiring leadership by diverse actors. Broadly, adaptation requires improved regional institutional coordination, expanded spatial and temporal perspective, incorporation of climate change scenarios into all planning and action, and greater effort to address multiple threats and global change drivers simultaneously in ways that are responsive to and inclusive of human communities. However, in the case of many recommendations the how, by whom, and under what conditions they can be implemented is not specified. We synthesize recommendations with respect to three likely conservation pathways: regional planning; site-scale management; and modification of existing conservation plans. We identify major gaps, including the need for (1) more specific, operational examples of adaptation principles that are consistent with unavoidable uncertainty about the future; (2) a practical adaptation planning process to guide selection and integration of recommendations into existing policies and programs; and (3) greater integration of social science into an endeavor that, although dominated by ecology, increasingly recommends extension beyond reserves and into human-occupied landscapes.
... Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, an important driver of the "6 th mass extinction" we currently face (Heller & Zavaleta 2009, Cafaro 2015, and may become the main threat to biodiversity by 2070 (Newbold 2018, Dasgupta 2021. Species may adapt to climate change to some extent by migrating towards areas that become increasingly suitable under climate change or through phenological adaptations, which refer to temporal adaptations of a species' life cycle events (Bellard et al. 2012). ...
... However, despite these adaptations, current conservation efforts are unlikely to conserve species effectively under climate change (Triviño et al. 2018, Duffield et al. 2021. Hence, ecologists have identified effective conservation strategies taking into account climatic changes and the species' adaptations (see for example the reviews by Heller & Zavaleta (2009), Jones et al. (2016 and Ranius et al. (2022)). ...
... Despite the species' adaptations, current conservation is therefore not sufficient to conserve species effectively in the future (Triviño et al. 2018, Duffield et al. 2021. Over the last decades, ecologists have identified the necessary changes in how to conserve species considering the impacts of climate change on species and the species' adaptations to climatic changes (see for example the reviews by Heller & Zavaleta (2009), Jones et al. (2016 and Ranius et al. (2022)). ...
Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and ecologists have identified necessary adaptation strategies. However, little research has been conducted so far on the economics of climate adaptation for biodiversity conservation. Three challenges arise from an economic perspective: How to (1) assess the impact of climate change on the cost-effectiveness of conservation, (2) consider the increasing uncertainty, and (3) evaluate conservation policy instruments under climate change. Addressing these challenges provides a thus far largely unexplored perspective on the economics of biodiversity conservation. This perspective relies on novel methodologies and provides policy-relevant insights.
In this thesis, these challenges are addressed in eight articles. Chapter 2 presents a novel economic evaluation framework to assess policy instruments for climate adaptation. Specific criteria are developed, their relevance for different strategies is assessed and suitable instruments identified.
Chapters 3 and 4 have a methodological focus as two climate-ecological-economic (CEE) models are developed. Chapter 3 presents an applied model integrating detailed sub-models able to assess the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures. In chapter 4, methods from operations research are developed further to identify optimal time series of reserve networks. In both chapters, cost-effective conservation plans are identified in case study applications.
In chapter 5, CEE modelling is applied to examine the role of uncertainties regarding future climatic conditions. It is found that a trade-off between expected performance and robustness emerges in the case study in the future.
In chapters 6 to 8, CEE modelling is used to assess policy instruments under climate change. Chapter 6 examines an agri-environment scheme: cost-effectiveness requires flexibility in adapting the timing of conservation measures due to species’ adaptations and changes in costs. Chapter 7 examines two versions of land purchase: a “no sale” policy which prohibits sales for ecological reasons and a “sale” policy to enhance spatial flexibility for adaptation. A new trade-off is identified: while “no sale” mainly increases habitat permanence of expanding habitat types, “sale” improves the outcome for increasingly threatened habitat types. Chapter 8 is novel in its comparative analysis of two policy instruments considering spatial and management flexibility in a case study. It is found that in the case study, conservation contracts are more cost-effective than land purchase, but that the relative suitability switches when the conservation agency is able to capture producer rents.
Finally, chapter 9 uses the results of chapters 3 and 5 to develop an innovative teaching tool for students to learn about cost-effective biodiversity conservation under climate change.
... Forest management and policies must take the impacts of climate change into account as forests will have to adapt to changes in climate and increased risk of extreme weather events (Lindner et al., 2010). Adaptive management strategies are required for sustainable management of forests under future climate change in order to ensure the persistence of many species and related ecosystem services (Heller and Zavaleta, 2009). There is an urgent and on-going requirement for scientific research to address knowledge gaps of responses and adaptive capacity of our forests to guide adaptive management (Heller and Zavaleta, 2009;Mori et al., 2013). ...
... Adaptive management strategies are required for sustainable management of forests under future climate change in order to ensure the persistence of many species and related ecosystem services (Heller and Zavaleta, 2009). There is an urgent and on-going requirement for scientific research to address knowledge gaps of responses and adaptive capacity of our forests to guide adaptive management (Heller and Zavaleta, 2009;Mori et al., 2013). ...
... While forest ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change due to the long life span of trees forests have proved resilient to past changes in climate (De Frenne et al., 2013). However today's fragmented and degraded forest ecosystems are more vulnerable, particularly in landscapes where plantation forests dominate and climate change is a major threat to biodiversity over the coming century (Noss, 2001;Heller and Zavaleta, 2009). When faced with a change in their environment beyond their normal tolerance, such as climate change, species and populations can respond in one of two ways, either by adaptive evolution so that the new climate is tolerated, or movement to another area with a more suitable climate (Beever and Belant, 2012). ...
The four year BIOPLAN project ‘Implementation of an assessment and monitoring programme for biodiversity in Irish and British forests’ was the fourth project in the PLANFORBIO research programme. The main objective of this research was to identify ways in which forest policy and management can safeguard the future of forest biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, and inform environmentally sustainable
expansion of Ireland’s forests. This project built on the BIOFOREST project ‘Biodiversity in Irish plantation forests’ (2000 – 2006) and projects in the PLANFORBIO Programme ‘Planning and management tools for biodiversity in a range of Irish forests’, with a view to exploiting data collected thus far and gathering new data to assess forest biodiversity at both stand and landscape scales. BIOPLAN also aimed to establish links with Forest Research (UK) and establish a framework for future forest biodiversity research in Ireland, which is essential to scientifically underpin sustainable development in the forestry sector.
... Thus, green infrastructure promotes landscape-scale and holistic planning approaches that are based on remaining biodiversity and ecosystem-service hot spots and their functional connectivity within a landscape matrix subjected to ongoing climate and land-use changes. In forest landscapes having a legacy of extractive forestry, applying green infrastructure implies that forest patches are restored, matrix quality is improved, and connectedness is strengthened (Dondina et al., 2017;Heller & Zavaleta, 2009). In addition to preserving existing intact forest landscapes and primary forest as connectivity nodes, networks can be re-created within degraded or extensively transformed forest landscapes to secure functional habitats for species to move and spread. ...
... Forest edges, for example, are important transitional biotopes but also hold specific conservation values (Harper et al., 2015) and provide a functional green infrastructure in natural as well as need-to-be-restored anthropic forest landscapes in which clear-cut edges dominate (Esseen et al., 2016). Approaches are required that range from local species occurrence and microsites to habitats, landscapes, and entire regions to attain functional connectivity, i.e., a connectivity that supports the representative traits of species composition, habitat structures, and ecological processes (Heller & Zavaleta, 2009) and that goes beyond the protection of remaining biodiversity key habitats to forest landscape restoration and prestoration (Mansourian, 2018). Nonetheless, pan-national policies and policy implementation instruments and routines are needed to ensure that fragmentation (as a consequence) and connectivity (as a necessity) are accounted for in boreal sustainable forest management and governance. ...
The increasing effects of climate and global change oblige ecosystem-based management to adapt forestry practices to deal with uncertainties. Here we provide an overview to identify the challenges facing the boreal forest under projected future change, including altered natural disturbance regimes, biodiversity loss, increased forest fragmentation, the rapid loss of old-growth forests, and the need to develop novel silvicultural approaches. We specifically address subjects previously lacking from the ecosystem-based management framework, e.g., Indigenous communities, social concerns, ecological restoration, and impacts on aquatic ecosystems. We conclude by providing recommendations for ensuring the successful long-term management of the boreal biome facing climate change.
... 4 organisms (Beier, 2012;Heller & Zavaleta, 2009). However, these connections are not always possible due, for example, to habitat fragmentation (Heller & Zavaleta, 2009) or natural barriers. ...
... 4 organisms (Beier, 2012;Heller & Zavaleta, 2009). However, these connections are not always possible due, for example, to habitat fragmentation (Heller & Zavaleta, 2009) or natural barriers. In addition, natural gene flow is limited for some species, such as those plants that are strictly autogamous. ...
Current climate change may impede species to evolutionary adapt quickly enough to environmental changes, threatening their survival. In keystone populations, it may be necessary to consider the introduction of adaptive alleles through assisted gene flow. Considering that flowering time is a crucial trait in plant response to global warming, the objective of our study was to test the potential benefits and limitations of assisted gene flow for enhancing the evolutionary potential of Lupinus angustifolius L. (Fabaceae) populations through the advancement of flowering time in the context of global warming. Previous studies have shown that southern populations of L. angustifolius flower earlier than northern populations. We collected seeds from four populations in Spain from two different latitudes, and we established them in a common garden environment. To advance the flowering onset of northern populations, we used pollen from southern individuals to pollinate plants from northern populations, creating an F1 gene flow line. In the following season, the F1 gene flow line was self-pollinated to create an F2 self-pollination line. In parallel, individuals from the F1 gene flow line were pollinated again with pollen from northern plants, thus creating a backcross line. We also included a control line resulting from a random selection of individuals in each population in the first generation and their descendants from self-crosses in the second generation. We measured flowering onset, reproductive success and other plant traits in all individuals resulting from these lines. To characterize the effects of the assisted gene flow line at the genomic level, we carried out a gene capture analysis to sequence genes related to reproduction, growth, stress, nitrogen, and alkaloids in individuals from the F1 gene flow line and the control line in the first generation. All gene flow-derived lines flowered significantly earlier than the control line. Furthermore, plants from the F1 gene flow line produced heavier seeds and had a lower shoot growth than the control line. Genomic analyses identified 36 SNPs outliers that were associated to flowering onset, seed weight, and shoot growth. These results highlight that assisted gene flow can increase the evolutionary potential of populations by modifying the values of a specific trait. However, the modification of one trait may affect the values of other plant traits. The characteristics of the populations will have a fundamental effect on the results of assisted gene flow. Therefore, the selection of the donor population is a critical step in this process.
... Ecological connectivity (EC) represents the backbone of biodiversity conservation (Beier 1995, Bennett 1998, Taylor et al., 2006Favilli et al., 2015) by ensuring the ow of organisms and ecological processes across landscapes (Taylor et al. 1993) and counteracting the negative effects of habitat fragmentation and climate change (Heller and Zavaleta, 2009). The Alps and the Dinaric Mountains are exceptionally rich in biodiversity and, although they still show one of the lowest levels of landscape fragmentation in Europe and feature the largest Natura2000 sites as measured by area (EEA, 2011; Lawrence et al., 2021), they are threatened by climate change and habitat loss (Laner et al., 2020). ...
... classic metapopulations, source-sink dynamics, or patchy populations, as in Harrison, 1991) even in the absence of vast intact natural areas. This is possible through long-distance animal movements such as juvenile dispersal, seasonal migrations (DeFries et al., 2007), and geographical range shifts in response to habitat turnover (Van Teeffelen et al., 2012), environmental stochasticity, and climate change (Hannah, 2008;Heller and Zavaleta, 2009;Verboom et al., 2010), if the distance or landscape resistance to movement between habitat fragments is not excessive. ...
The Alps and the Dinaric Mountains are biodiversity hubs and, although they are subjected to heavy human-related pressures, they still show one of the lowest levels of landscape fragmentation in Europe. The DINALPCONNECT project has the aim of identifying the most important geographical areas for ensuring the biological processes and natural movements and the gene flow of wildlife species between the Alps and the Dinaric Mountains.
The current paper presents the results of the implementation of the Continuum Suitability Index (CSI) model in combination with the least-cost path (LCP) – GIS model in the DINALPCONNECT project area in order to detect the macro-regional ecological connectivity network stretching from the Alps to the Dinaric Mountains. The aim is to support regional decision-makers in defining the actions that will ensure both the ecological network and local human-wildlife coexistence as regards the most important linkages.
The results show that the main core areas (SACA1) of the overall ecological network represent 20% of the total project area. The calculated macro-regional LCP connects 51% of the surface of these areas and reveals great differences in legislation on protected areas between EU and Non-EU countries.
The results show that non-EU countries have the highest shares of SACA1 areas outside protected areas, contributing to important macro-regional connections. The CSI is proving to be a highly adaptable model on the macro-regional level, which can include current and future local issues concerning ecological connections. Therefore, the presented GIS analysis could be a valuable tool enabling regional decision-makers to better manage human and wildlife presence and to identify the best actions for the development of the ecological network.
... The climate is changing and affecting the natural world (IPCC 2007(IPCC , 2013Spittlehouse 2008;Heller & Zavaleta 2009;Rodenhuis et al. 2009;Pojar 2010;Morgan & Daust 2013). The IPCC (2013) 5 th Assessment Report affirms that "warming of the climate system is unequivocal" and that "global water cycle response" varies by region and season, although there is less certainty in the extent of precipitation changes. ...
... • Maintain and/or restore connectivity across the landscape (Heller & Zavaleta 2009). ...
Natural resource practitioners are increasingly making decisions that consider future climates. This article examines the regional patterns of change in temperature and precipitation within British Columbia. Based on a review of the literature, regionally specifictables are provided with examples of conservation-oriented adaptation actions to helpspecies and ecosystems adapt to future conditions.
... Current rapid declines in biodiversity reduce the stability and resilience of ecological systems and services upon which humanity and all other organisms depend (Cardinale et al. 2012). Conserving ecological connectivity, herein referred to as connectivity, can help protect biodiversity and enhance ecosystem resilience by contributing to the maintenance of ecosystem structure and function, allowing for ecosystem reorganization through movement, recolonization of disturbed areas, and the introduction of new genetic material to existing populations (Heller and Zavaleta 2009;Bernhardt and Leslie 2013;Samways and Pryke 2016;Timpane-Padgham et al. 2017). Connectivity is defined as 'the degree to which the landscape facilitates or impedes movement among resource patches' (Taylor et al. 1993: 571) or as 'the ease with which these individuals can move about within the landscape' (Kindlmann and Burel 2008: 880). ...
... The findings of this research indicate that existing EIA legislation is not designed to promote the retention and restoration of connectivity. As connectivity has become increasingly recognized as an important aspect of biodiversity conservation (Heller and Zavaleta 2009;Bernhardt and Leslie 2013;Samways and Pryke 2016;Timpane-Padgham et al. 2017), its exclusion from the EIA process should not be ignored any longer. Projects that included connectivity as a VC scored somewhat better, which suggests that requiring the consideration of connectivity as a VC in the EIA process is a valuable entry point for improving the retention and restoration of connectivity; however, practitioners conducting connectivity analysis must also be provided with guidelines and standards. ...
This study seeks to understand the extent to which ecological connectivity has been considered in EIA in Canada. Several factors that may influence the consideration of connectivity were analyzed in an evaluation of 14 environmental impact statements (EIS) obtained from the Canadian Impact Assessment Registry. Connectivity is largely absent from the EIA process, and even projects that attempted to consider connectivity lacked the rigor required to effectively assess impacts on connectivity. Projects that included connectivity as a valued component performed somewhat better, whereas the assessment of connectivity was not affected by different federal environmental acts (CEAA 1992 vs. CEAA 2012), development sectors, or proponent types. Between sections of the EIS, a significantly greater number of evaluation criteria were met in the scoping section compared to all other sections. Without adequate guidance, connectivity analysis in EIA has been conducted ad hoc, with considerable variation in quality. Including connectivity consideration in EIA legislation would provide a legal framework to address the lack of policies, standards, and assessment guidelines. We provide recommendations for integrating connectivity in EIA in Canada and elsewhere.
... Connectivity, e.g. the degree to which a landscape facilitates or impedes species movement among different patches (Saura and Rubio, 2010), directly affect population viability (Burel and Baudry, 2005). For example, higher landscape connectivity facilitates the movement of individuals, dispersal of seeds and pollen, and maintains gene flow (Heller and Zavaleta 2009;Lander et al., 2010;Aizen et al., 2016), while lower landscape connectivity may lead to reduction in effective population size, genetic bottlenecks, inbreeding depression, and potential population extinctions (Hess, 1996;Fagan, 2002;Lecomte et al., 2004;Benson et al., 2016). Different patches usually play different roles in the persistence of overall connectivity due to their specific characteristics (for example, size, topology, edges and quality), and usually a limited number of patches have a significant contribution in maintaining overall connectivity. ...
... Although small patches can hardly maintain a viable population of native forest species, in the right location, they can function as stepping stones to promote the long-distance movement of those species, thus reducing their potential isolation. The presence of stepping stones not only provides better connectivity among subpopulations , and reduces movement risks across the matrix (Fischer and Lindenmayer, 2002;Le Roux et al., 2018;Prevedello et al., 2018), but also increases habitat reachability, and allows species to colonize new suitable areas (Herrera et al., 2017), which is critical in the face of increasing pressure from climate and land use changes (Heller and Zavaleta, 2009;Saura et al., 2014). We found that the role of small forest patches (<5 ha) in connectivity varied with different dispersal abilities. ...
More in-depth knowledge is required regarding the identification of priority conservation sites (patches) to improve the efficiency of their protection in increasingly fragmented landscapes. Priority site-selection efforts typically focus on large and well-connected patches, while the role of small patches is often ignored and poorly understood. In this paper, we use the forest in Kalajun-Kuerdening, Xinjiang, China, as a case study, to assess the potential role of small patches in landscape connectivity, and to determine which of these sites should be prioritized for conservation/protection. We ranked the patches according to their importance in maintaining overall connectivity. Thirteen patches were classified as critical and fourteen as important patches for landscape connectivity, which we propose should be recognized as priority sites. Based on their contributions to maintain overall connectivity, seven small (<5 ha) patches and fifteen small patch clusters were identified as connectors between large patches, which could be used as stepping stones by some species. Some small patches provide critical habitat and protection for species with small home ranges and short dispersal distances, and thus should be prioritized for conservation and management of landscape connectivity. Our study offers an approach to identify priority sites for biodiversity conservation.
... (1) Nature reserves form the basis of modern conservation systems [27], while climate change creates new challenges for their biodiversity conservation. Species distributions are already responding to recent climate change, which has caused obvious ecological shifts [28]. Range shifts due to climate change may cause species to exceed the current boundaries of nature reserves [29]; thus, current nature reserves will not be suitable for all the species they were designed to protect. ...
Priority conservation areas are the key areas of biodiversity maintenance and ecosystem conservation. Based on a Maxent model, this study predicted the potential distribution of Pseudotsuga sinensis under the current climate and future climate change scenarios in Guizhou province, and then, assessed three kinds of priority conservation area under climate change. The results were as follows: (1) The AUC (Area Under the Curve) values showed excellent prediction accuracy of the model. (2) The areas of the potential habitats of P. sinensis forests under the current climate and future climate change scenarios were 22,062.85 km2 and 18,395.92 km2, respectively. As for their spatial distribution, the potential habitats of P. sinensis forests were distributed in the Bijie, Zunyi, Tongren, Liupanshui and Xingyi regions under the current climate, and in the Kaili region, in addition to the above-mentioned cities, under future climate change scenarios. (3) The total area of priority conservation areas under climate change was 25,350.26 km2. The area of the predicted sustainable potential habitats was 15,075.96 km2, of the vulnerable potential habitats was 7256.59 km2 and of the derivative potential habitats was 3017.71 km2.
... At the same time, the effectiveness of structured FRM and its consequences have been becoming increasingly questioned with the following limitations: First, structural measures have frequently reached their limit to keep pace with changing hydroclimatic risks, requiring massive investment and maintenance to ensure a rising frequency and magnitude of upcoming floods (Palmer et al., 2015). Maintaining a consistent degree of protection with an engineered approach is challenging to meet the pressing need to cope with the increasing frequency of extreme events (Heller & Zavaleta, 2009;Iacob et al., 2014). Second, the failure of the structural measures, such as a dike breach, could potentially cause a destructive impact due to the momentum of the flood wave (Haltas et al., 2016;Ogie et al., 2020) or it could amplify problems in downstream areas (Plate, 2002). ...
Traditional ways of reducing flood risk have encountered limitations in a climate-changing and rapidly urbanizing world. For instance, there has been a demanding requirement for massive investment in order to maintain a consistent level of security as well as increased flood exposure of people and property due to a false sense of security arising from the flood protection infrastructure. Against this background, nature-based solutions (NBS) have gained popularity as a sustainable and alternative way of dealing with diverse societal challenges such as climate change and biodiversity loss. In particular, their ability to reduce flood risks while also offering ecological benefits has recently received global attention. Diverse co-benefits of NBS that favor both humans and nature are viewed as promising a wide endorsement of NBS. However, people’s perceptions of NBS are not always positive. Local resistance to NBS projects as well as decision-makers’ and practitioners’ unwillingness to adopt NBS have been pointed out as a bottleneck to the successful realization and mainstreaming of NBS. In this regard, there has been a growing necessity to investigate people’s perceptions of NBS. Current research has lacked an integrative perspective of both attitudinal and contextual factors that guide perceptions of NBS; it not only lacks empirical evidence, but a few existing ones are rather conflicting without having underlying theories. This has led to the overarching research question of this dissertation, "What shapes people’s perceptions of NBS in the context of flooding?" The dissertation aims to answer the following sub-questions in the three papers that make up this dissertation: 1. What are the topics reflected in the previous literature influencing perceptions of NBS as a means to reduce hydro-meteorological risks? (Paper I) 2. What are the stimulating and hampering attitudinal and contextual factors for mainstreaming NBS for flood risk management? How are NBS conceptualized? (Paper II) 3. How are public attitudes toward the NBS projects shaped? How do risk-and place-related factors shape individual attitudes toward NBS? (Paper III) This dissertation follows an integrative approach of considering “place” and “risk”, as well as the surrounding context, by analyzing attitudinal (i.e., individual) and contextual (i.e., systemic) factors. “Place” is mainly concerned with affective elements (e.g., bond to locality and natural environment) whereas “risk” is related to cognitive elements (e.g., threat appraisal). The surrounding context provides systemic drivers and barriers with the possibility of interfering the influence of place and risk for perceptions of NBS. To empirically address the research questions, the current status of the knowledge about people’s perceptions of NBS for flood risks was investigated by conducting a systematic review (Paper I). Based on these insights, a case study of South Korea was used to demonstrate key contextual and attitudinal factors for mainstreaming NBS through the lens of experts (Paper II). Lastly, by conducting a citizen survey, it investigated the relationship between the previously discussed concepts in Papers I and II using structural equation modeling, focusing on the core concepts, namely risk and place (Paper III). As a result, Paper I identified the key topics relating to people’s perceptions, including the perceived value of co-benefits, perceived effectiveness of risk reduction effectiveness, participation of stakeholders, socio-economic and place-specific conditions, environmental attitude, and uncertainty of NBS. Paper II confirmed Paper I's findings regarding attitudinal factors. In addition, several contextual hampering or stimulating factors were found to be similar to those of any emerging technologies (i.e., path dependence, lack of operational and systemic capacity). Among all, one of the distinctive features in NBS contexts, at least in the South Korean case, is the politicization of NBS, which can lead to polarization of ideas and undermine the decision-making process. Finally, Paper III provides a framework with the core topics (i.e., place and risk) that were considered critical in Paper I and Paper II. This place-based risk appraisal model (PRAM) connects people at risk and places where hazards (i.e., floods) and interventions (i.e., NBS) take place. The empirical analysis shows that, among the place-related variables, nature bonding was a positive predictor of the perceived risk-reduction effectiveness of NBS, and place identity was a negative predictor of supportive attitude. Among the risk-related variables, threat appraisal had a negative effect on perceived risk reduction effectiveness and supportive attitude, while well-communicated information, trust in flood risk management, and perceived co-benefit were positive predictors. This dissertation proves that the place and risk attributes of NBS shape people’s perceptions of NBS. In order to optimize the NBS implementation, it is necessary to consider the meanings and values held in place before project implementation and how these attributes interact with individual and/or community risk profiles and other contextual factors. With the increasing necessity of using NBS to lower flood risks, these results make important suggestions for the future NBS project strategy and NBS governance.
... The main threat to amphibians that have recently undergone a significant decline worldwide is connectivity changes in their habitats (Stuart et al. 2004;Cushman 2006). Preserving and restoring landscape connectivity is a top priority for wildlife protection and an adaptation strategy to protect biodiversity against climate change (Heller and Zavaleta 2009;Lawler 2009). In their corridors, amphibians are dependent on the contexts that contain components such as moisture and water in their structure. ...
Background:
Temperature, as one of the effective environmental stimuli in many aspects of species life and ecosystems, can affect amphibians in many ways. Knowing and predicting temperature change and its possible effects on the habitat suitability and movements of amphibians have led many researchers to use climate change scenarios and species distribution models (SDMs). One of the important remote-sensing products that received less attention of conservation biologists is the land surface temperature (LST). Due to the small difference between LST and air temperature, this component can be used to investigate and monitor the daily and seasonal changes of habitats. This study aims to investigate the seasonal trend of LST in the habitat suitability and connectivity of the critically endangered newt (Neurergus derjugini) in its small distribution range, using the MODIS LST time series (2003 to 2021) and with the help of SDMs, Mann–Kendall (MK) and Pettitt non-parametric tests.
Results:
In the last decade, the increasing trend of LST versus its decreasing trends is obvious. Based on MK and Pettitt tests, in the winter and spring, with the decrease in latitude of 35.45° and increase in longitude of 46.14°, the core populations which are located in the southeast have experienced an increase in temperature. Considering the period time of breeding and overwintering, the continuity of winter and spring can be effective on the survival of adult newts as well as larvae in the microclimate. Linkages with the highest current flow between core populations in the winter and summer are the most likely to be vulnerable. At the level of habitat, the increase in LST is proportional to the trend of thermal landscape changes, and all seasons have had an increase in LST, but in winter and summer, the largest area of the habitat has been involved. By continuing the current trend, many high-altitude southern habitats in Iran will be endangered, and the species will be at risk of local extinction.
Conclusion:
The increasing trend of temperature in all seasons such as winter will affect many adaptations of the species and these effects are mostly evident in the southern parts of its distribution range therefore, captive breeding and reintroduction are recommended for the populations of these areas.
... Maintaining this strictly preservationist value (i.e., prohibiting human establishment near nature, solely focusing on pristine habitat preservation) is therefore of limited benefit to sloths and other wildlife in the Anthropocene. As urban expansion approaches a tipping point, a paradigm shift is essential [174,175]. Continued global change is inevitable and preserving habitats is crucial, but it must involve additional and complementary approaches [10,31,33,42,43,[176][177][178]. ...
Human-introduced predators, primarily the domestic dog (Canis lupus familiaris), and human-modified landscapes conjointly threaten wildlife across Costa Rica. For arboreal species, including the two-fingered sloth (Choloepus hoffmani), the impact of domestic dogs is amplified in areas of habitat fragmentation. In efforts to navigate discontinuous canopies associated with urban development and human encroachment, C. hoffmani is forced to utilize terrestrial locomotion. This unnatural behavior leaves sloths increasingly vulnerable to predation by domestic dogs, which occupy altered landscapes in high densities. In this report, we detail the ante and postmortem findings associated with C. hoffmani following an extensive attack by three large-breed dogs. The patient sustained severe and fatal polytraumatic injuries targeting the abdominothoracic region. Gross lesions were not readily evident, obscured by unique anatomical characteristics of the species. This report aims to highlight the threat imposed by dogs to sloths and the severity of injuries, with considerations for clinical management in light of C. hoffmani morphology. We review the scope of domestic dog–wildlife conflict in Costa Rica, and propose collaborative mitigation strategies including habitat preservation, domestic dog population control, installation of wildlife corridors, policy initiatives, and dog owner education and public outreach.
... It is vital to consider the spatial distribution of environmental and socio-economic advantages to plan and adopt adaptation programs in land governance (e.g., emphasizing areas for the protection of species within endangered ecosystems, culturally important sites, agricultural areas with high value, and SLM) and mechanisms that challenge their persistence now and in the future [137]. In order to increase SLM compatibility and improve the good performance in land management, intelligent planning methods (e.g., spatial data analysis and GIS) are being used [138,139]. The aim of common smart planning approaches is to maximize the distribution of actions and land uses to accomplish environmental and socio-economic targets, including comprehensive conservation planning [134,[140][141][142][143][144][145] and integrated landscape design. ...
Global environmental governance (GEG) is one of the world’s major attempts to address climate change issues through mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite a significant improvement in GEG’s structural, human, and financial capital, the global commons are decaying at an unprecedented pace. Among the global commons, land has the largest share in GEG. Land use change, which is rooted in increasing populations and urbanization, has a significant role in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As a response, land governance and, consequently, good land governance, have arisen as normative concepts emerging from a series of success factors (notably economic development, environmental conservation, and social justice) to achieve greater sustainability. However, global land governance has shown little success in helping GEG due to the lack of intellectual and flexible thinking over governing the land sector. Consequently, reforming land governance “in a smart way” is one of the most critical actions that could contribute to achieving GEG goals. Hence, we propose a smart land governance (SLG) system that will be well addressed, understood, and modeled in a systemic and dynamic way. A smart system may be smart enough to adapt to different contexts and intellectual responses in a timely fashion. Accordingly, SLG is able to promote shared growth and solve many land sector problems by considering all principles of good land governance. Therefore, in order to enhance adaptive land governance systems, efficient land administration and management are required. This study’s outcomes will raise the comprehension of the problems of land management, providing an excellent framework to help land planners and policy-makers, as well as the development of strategic principles with respect to the principal multidimensional components of SLG.
... The growing threats to biodiversity from climate change call for a far more wideranging approach to conservation. Climate warming may lead to the migration of sensitive flora and fauna out of protected boundaries and fragmentation of protected habitats [79]. The NTSP and the nature reserve system, which integrates ecological as well as agricultural and productive spaces in one comprehensive plan that includes rigorous monitoring measures and considers the best use of each type of space, provides a worthwhile framework for biodiversity conservation. ...
Facing the serious challenge of human pressure on biodiversity conservation, a growing interest has been aroused in adaptive pathways for conservation law and regulations. Unlike studies that discuss improvement pathways based on well-established systems in the developed world, building up a scientific, effective regulatory system is the major challenge faced in China. We analyzed the evolution of protection regulations and divided them into three main stages. In the first two stages, conservation regulations followed a parallel core logic of national reform and development, resulting in rules that were too stringent or served only departmental interests. In the third stage, the reform of territorial spatial planning incorporated various PAs, reconciling ecological protection with the needs of agriculture and urbanization for land use. We attribute the success of the third stage to a more comprehensive policy and legal framework that integrates the system of protected areas and spatial planning, making conservation rules more scientific and enforceable. Several suggestions to enhance current reforms are then proposed. This study also provides international insight into limiting the impact of human activities on protected areas through scientifically integrated spatial planning and strict use controls.
... The effectiveness of PAs in mitigating the effects of climate change on biodiversity is partly attributable to their ability to provide high-quality habitats and reduce other anthropogenic pressures (Thomas and Gillingham, 2015), such as habitat loss and degradation (Geldmann et al., 2013;Leberger et al., 2020). Therefore, it is imperativealthough rarely done (but see Verniest et al., 2022) to explicitly consider these two anthropogenic pressures by anticipating their future intensity and distribution when identifying potential new PAs (Heller and Zavaleta, 2009;Pörtner et al., 2021), especially since we will need to designate many new PAs to meet ambitious targets of protecting 30 % of land by 2030 within the Kunming-Montreal global biodiversity framework (CBD, 2022). ...
Thermal adjustment of waterbird communities to climate warming is crucial but hampered by natural habitat conversion, increasing their climatic debt. As it is, in contrast, facilitated in protected areas, assessing the adequacy of the current protected areas network with respect to future climate and land-use changes and identifying priority sites to protect is of major importance. In this study, we assess the thermal adjustment limitations that non-breeding waterbird communities might experience by the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean region to highlight priorities for wetland protection. Priorities were set by combining the exposure of waterbird communities to natural habitat conversion and climate warming with their thermal specialization. The latter was calculated using winter abundance data of 151 species from 2932 sites of the International Waterbird Census in 21 Mediterranean countries. Exposure was assessed using future projections of temperature and land-use under four CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We found that strictly protected areas are located in wetlands whose waterbird communities, without protection, would likely experience high limitations in thermal adjustment in the coming decades. This highlights that the location of existing protected areas may effectively support the thermal adjustment of waterbird communities to future climate warming. However, 490 sites considered at risk lack protection, including 32 sites of international importance for waterbirds, stressing the need to strengthen the protected areas network in these sites in priority. Our study provides important guidance for conservation planning in the Mediterranean region to support waterbird responses to climate change.
... It is widely predicted that places with suitable climate will soon lie outside the current range of many species [1][2][3] , and in consequence, that their survival over the next 100 years depends on how rapidly populations can move 4 . Many organisms are thought to face insurmountable range-shift barriers, leading to the conclusion that the only viable option to prevent extinctions is thus to translocate them to places where the climate is suitable 5 , or create habitat corridors that allow them to get there of their own accord 6 . However, the expectation that species will have to undergo major range shifts to avoid range loss is founded on the assumption of strong and smooth geographic gradients in climate. ...
The expectation that places with suitable climate will lie outside the current range of many species has shaped 21st century conservation policy and led to predictions of numerous extinctions. We show that the magnitude of range shifts is often overestimated because the climate data typically used do not reflect the microclimatic conditions that many organisms experience. We model the historic (1977–1995) distributions of 302 plant taxa using both macro- and microclimate data and project these distributions forward to present day (2002–2020). Whereas macroclimate models predicted major range shifts (mean: 9.2 km per decade), microclimate models predicted localised shifts into favourable microclimate (mean: 88 m per decade) that more closely match observed patterns of establishment and extinction. In consequence, improving protecting of refugial populations within species’ existing geographic range is likely to be more effective for many species than assisted translocations and overhaul of protected area networks.
... The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) points out that the global climate is obviously warming [5]. With global warming, species distribution, population size and genetic diversity will change [6], which will lead to plant migration, endangerment and even extinction [7][8][9][10][11][12]. Therefore, we should study the response of the plant distribution pattern to climate change and understand the climate demand of organisms and its relationship with the species geographical distribution. ...
Pinus densiflora is an important evergreen coniferous species with both economic and ecological value. It is an endemic species in East Asia. Global climate warming greatly interferes with species survival. This study explored the impact of climate change on the distribution of this species and the relationship between its geographical distribution and climate demand, so as to provide a theoretical basis for the protection of P. densiflora under the background of global warming. This research used 565 valid data points and 19 typical climatic environmental factors distributed in China, Japan, and South Korea. The potential distribution area of P. densiflora in East Asia under the last glacial maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene, the current situation and two scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) in the future (2050s and 2070s) was simulated by the MaxEnt model. The species distribution model toolbox in ArcGIS software was used to analyze the potential distribution range and change of P. densiflora. The contribution rates, jackknife test and environmental variable response curves were used to assess the importance of key climate factors. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model accuracy. The MaxEnt model had an excellent simulation effect (AUC = 0.982). The forecast showed that the Korean Peninsula and Japan were highly suitable areas for P. densiflora, and the area had little change. Moreover, during the LGM, there was no large-scale retreat to the south, and it was likely to survive in situ in mountain shelters. The results suggested that Japan may be the origin of P. densiflora rather than the Shandong Peninsula of China. The distribution area of P. densiflora in the mid-Holocene and future scenarios was reduced compared with the current distribution, and the reduction of future distribution was greater, indicating that climate warming will have certain negative impacts on the distribution of P. densiflora in the future. The precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), temperature seasonality (Bio4), mean annual temperature (Bio1) and mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) had the greatest impact on the distribution area of P. densiflora.
... Preserving and enhancing the natural movement of organisms is critical to mitigating the current biodiversity crisis (Tilman et al., 2017) and is a key strategy for promoting species adaptations to climate change (Heller and Zavaleta, 2009), with well-connected landscapes facilitating gene flow, migration, dispersal, and range shifts (McRae and Beier, 2007;Littlefield et al., 2019). In the United States, private agricultural lands may play an important role in facilitating such ecological flows by providing linkages between areas of high-quality habitat (Kremen and Merenlender, 2018;Garibaldi et al., 2021). ...
... These drivers collectively exacerbate the problem by impeding species movement, or ecological connectivity, which is necessary to allow individuals to access food and water, establish new territories, supplement existing populations, avoid predators, and to find breeding partners (Hilty et al. 2020). In addition, reduced connectivity will inhibit species' ability to shift ranges and adapt to climate change effects (Thomas et al. 2004;Heller & Zavaleta 2009;Hannah 2011). Consequently, Parties to the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS; 2020), a multilateral environment agreement under the United Nations, reaffirmed that maintaining and restoring ecological connectivity is one of their top priorities. ...
Maintaining and restoring ecological connectivity is considered a global imperative to help reverse the decline of biodiversity. To be successful, practitioners need to be guided by connectivity modeling research that is rigorous and reliable for the task at hand. However, the methods and workflows within this rapidly growing field are diverse and few have been rigorously scrutinized. We propose three procedural steps that should be consistently undertaken and reported on in connectivity modeling studies in order to improve rigour and utility: (1) describe the type of connectivity being modeled, (2) assess the uncertainty and sensitivity of model parameters, and (3) validate the model outputs, ideally with independent data. We reviewed the literature to determine the extent to which studies included these three steps. We focused on studies that generated novel landscape connectivity outputs using circuit theory. Among 181 studies meeting our search criteria, 39% communicated the type of connectivity being modeled and 18% conducted some form of sensitivity or uncertainty analysis (or both). Only 19% of studies attempted to validate their connectivity model outputs and only 7% used fully independent data. Our findings highlight a clear need and opportunity to improve the rigour, reliability, and utility of connectivity modeling research. At a minimum, researchers should be transparent about which, if any, of these three steps were undertaken. This will help practitioners make more informed decisions and ensure limited resources for connectivity conservation and restoration are allocated appropriately.
... One response has been to redouble efforts to model the future and to plan accordingly [31]. This can manifest as trying to sequence what parts of a con-servation area network solution set should be implemented first (e.g., [32]), or as predicting climate change outcomes and planning accordingly [33]. Our observations are that this strategy is important, but it is very data intensive, complex, and may face diminishing returns. ...
Spatial conservation prioritization does not necessarily lead to effective conservation plans, and good plans do not necessarily lead to action. These “science-action” gaps are pernicious and need to be narrowed, especially if the international goal of conserving 30% of the planet by 2030 is to be realized. We present the Earthwise Framework, a flexible and customizable spatial decision support system (SDSS) architecture and social process to address the challenges of these science-action gaps. Utilizing case study experience from regions within California, South Africa, and British Columbia, we outline the framework and provide the Little Karoo, South Africa SDSS data, code and results to illustrate five design strategies of the framework. The first is to employ an “open science” strategy for collaborative conservation planning and action. Another is that marginal value functions allow for the continuous accounting of element (e.g., habitat) representation in prioritization algorithms, allowing for an SDSS that is more automated and saves valuable time for stakeholders and scientists. Thirdly, we program connectivity modeling integrated within the SDSS, with an algorithm that not only automatically calculates all the least cost corridors of a region, but prioritizes among them and removes the ones that do not make ecological sense. Fourth, we highlight innovations in multi-criteria decision analysis that allow for both cost-efficient plan development, like representative solution sets, but also land-use planning requirements, like site specific valuation, in what appears to be a more transparent, understandable, and usable manner than traditional approaches. Finally, strategic attention to communicating uncertainty is also advocated. The Earthwise Framework is an open science endeavor that can be implemented via a variety of software tools and languages, has several frontiers for further research and development, and shows promise in finding a better way to meet the needs of both humans and biodiversity.
... Adaptation is critical at this time because climatic changes are putting biodiversity and ecosystems at risk. Proactive management solutions and conservation objectives are required to address several threats at the same time; involving institutional cooperation, and climate change scenarios in planning [75,76]. ...
Even though oil, gas, and coal resources might be unavailable after 2040, 2042, and 2112, respectively; 81.7% of the energy is produced from fossil fuels. Experts have established that this level of non-renewable resource use is unsustainable, ecologically unsafe, and critically changing climate patterns. Whereas climate change and biodiversity loss have subjected mankind to significant systemic risks, policymakers have recommended a switch from fossil fuel-based to a biobased economy and reconnecting humans with the biosphere as a way to mitigate these risks. A circular bioeconomy has been suggested as an efficient approach to utilize environmentally safe ecosystem services for socio-ecological development and transformation towards sustainability. The circular bioeconomy provides significant opportunities to achieve 17 SDGs and 134 targets of the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030, and address numerous national and international challenges caused by climate action. In this review, we have highlighted links between circular bioeconomy and internationally agreed SDG targets [particularly SDG 13 (climate action)]; and assessed ecosystem services in a circular biobased economy. A critical synthesis vis-à-vis climate action through circular bioeconomy to assure the sustainability of bioeconomy programmes is herein presented.
... Landscape connectivity is critical for species movement and gene flow through dispersal and migratory movements (Noss et al., 2012) and reductions in connectivity have been found to be a strong driver of species extinctions (Hooftman et al., 2016;Thompson et al., 2017). Maintaining or restoring landscape connectivity is cited as one of the most important biodiversity adaptation strategies, particularly in the face of climate change as species ranges shift to track suitable climates (Heller & Zavaleta, 2009;Schloss et al., 2022). ...
Actions to protect against biodiversity loss and climate change will require a framework that addresses synergies between these interrelated issues. In this study, we present methods for identifying areas important for the implementation of nature-based climate solutions and biodiversity conservation by intersecting high-resolution spatial data for carbon storage and landscape connectivity. We explored the spatial congruence of carbon and connectivity in Ontario, Canada and examined effectiveness of current protected areas coverage. We found a weak positive relationship between carbon stocks and landscape connectivity; however, our maps revealed large hotspots, with high values of both indices, throughout the boreal forest and northern peatlands and smaller, isolated hotspots, in the settled landscapes of the south. Location of hotspots varied depending on whether we considered forest or soil carbon. Further, our results show that current protected and conserved areas in Ontario only cover 13% of landscapes with the highest values for both carbon storage and connectivity. Protection or restoration of areas that maximize the co-benefits of carbon storage and connectivity would make significant contributions toward ambitious national targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and conserve biodiversity.
... In the landscape-scale paradigm, there is often greater emphasis on connectivity and spatial configuration of habitat (Heller andZavaleta 2009, Wimberly et al. 2018) and a pre-disposition towards conserving larger and more connected patches (Wintle et al. 2019). However, prior to the widespread adoption of landscape-scale conservation, locallevel in situ approaches aiming to improve quality within individual habitat patches were the main focus for habitat specialist species, though primarily with the intention of increasing site-abundance as opposed to metapopulation viability. ...
Landscape‐scale approaches are increasingly advocated for species conservation but ensuring landscape level persistence by enlarging the size of patches or increasing their physical connectivity is often impractical. Here, we test how such barriers can be overcome by management of habitat at the local (site‐based) level, using a rare butterfly as an exemplar. We used four surveys of the entire UK distribution of the Lulworth skipper Thymelicus acteon over 40 years to test how local habitat influences population density and colonization/extinction dynamics, and parameterized, validated and applied a metapopulation model to simulate effects of varying local habitat quality on regional persistence. We found the total number of populations in four distribution snapshots between 1978 and 2017 varied between 59 and 84, and from 1997 to 2017 34% of local populations showed turnover (colonization or extinction). Population density was closely linked to vegetation characteristics indicative of management, namely height and food plant frequency, both of which changed through time. Simulating effects of habitat quality on metapopulation dynamics 40 years into the future suggests coordinated changes to two key components of quality (vegetation height and food plant frequency) would increase patch occupancy above the range observed in the past 40 years (50–80%). In contrast, deterioration of either component below threshold levels leads to metapopulation retraction to core sub‐networks of patches, or eventual extirpation. Our results indicate that changes to habitat quality can overcome constraints imposed by habitat patch area and spatial location on relative rates of colonization and local extinction, demonstrating the sensitivity of regional dynamics to targeted in situ management. Local habitat management therefore plays a key role in landscape‐scale conservation. Monitoring of population density, and the monitoring and management of local (site‐level) habitat quality, therefore represent effective and important components of conservation strategies in fragmented landscapes.
... Connectivity is important for numerous ecological processes, including gene flow, migrations, and species range shifts, and is therefore often key for promoting ecological resilience under climate change (Heller & Zavaleta, 2009). Such processes operate over a range of spatial and temporal scales from local to continental and transient to macroevolutionary (Armstrong et al., 2021;Littlefield et al., 2019). ...
Maintaining regional‐scale freshwater connectivity is challenging due to the dendritic, easily fragmented structure of freshwater networks, but is essential for promoting ecological resilience under climate change. Although the importance of stream network connectivity has been recognized, lake‐stream network connectivity has largely been ignored. Furthermore, protected areas are generally not designed to maintain or encompass entire freshwater networks. We applied a coarse‐filter approach to identify potential freshwater corridors for diverse taxa by calculating connectivity scores for 385 lake‐stream networks across the conterminous United States based on network size, structure, resistance to fragmentation, and dam prevalence. We also identified 2080 disproportionately important lakes for maintaining intact networks (i.e., hubs; 2% of all network lakes) and analyzed the protection status of hubs and potential freshwater corridors. Just 3% of networks received high connectivity scores based on their large size and structure (medians of 1303 lakes, 498.6 km north–south stream distance), but these also contained a median of 454 dams. In contrast, undammed networks (17% of networks) were considerably smaller (medians of six lakes, 7.2 km north–south stream distance), indicating that the functional connectivity of the largest potential freshwater corridors in the conterminous United States currently may be diminished compared with smaller, undammed networks. Network lakes and hubs were protected at similar rates nationally across different levels of protection (8%–18% and 6%–20%, respectively), but were generally more protected in the western United States. Our results indicate that conterminous United States protection of major freshwater corridors and the hubs that maintain them generally fell short of the international conservation goal of protecting an ecologically representative, well‐connected set of fresh waters (≥17%) by 2020 (Aichi Target 11). Conservation planning efforts might consider focusing on restoring natural hydrologic connectivity at or near hubs, particularly in larger networks, less protected, or biodiverse regions, to support freshwater biodiversity conservation under climate change.
... One of the vitally important benefits of retaining connectivity by reducing the impact of habitat fragmentation is that it increases the ability of species to spread to new regions, thus reducing the likelihood of extinction [41]. A strategy often suggested to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity is to increase ecological connectivity [42] creating opportunities for organisms to flow across landscapes [29]. The effectiveness of connectivity enhancement for species persistence in a changing climate will raise after increasing the size, quality, and number of protected areas along climatic gradients [41,43]. ...
Habitats have been undergoing significant changes due to environmental processes and human impact that lead into habitat fragmentation and connectivity loss. To improve quality habitats and maintain ecological connectivity, elements that improve the connectivity of habitats need to be identified. To meet this goal, finding optimal pathways locations plays a key role for designing corridors for biodiversity conservation. Conducted in the Castilla y León region of Spain, this paper aims to determine optimal pathways and to enhance the connectivity of protected areas. To this end, three different scenarios were developed including the Natura 2000 network and their sur-roundings (Natura 2000, Level 0, and Level 1). We used Restoration Planner (RP) available in GuidosToolbox to analyze the network and detect pairwise optimum restoration pathways between the five largest network objects. Our results demonstrate that connector density varies across the region for each scenario. There was also a large variability in the length of connectors. Connectors were found mainly distributed around the center and northwestern part of Castilla y León. This paper also suggests that proposed new restoration pathways should increase in the study area. Thus, the findings can be used effectively for extensive planning and interpretation in biodiversity conservation.
... The higher magnitude of land-use instability outside wilderness areas than within is likely detrimental to species undergoing range shifts. Therefore, there is a need to employ a mix of proactive and reactive strategies, 37 including conservation efforts across landscapes surrounding key biodiversity areas. 38 The finding that most nations with small, structurally disconnected, and exposed wilderness areas are developing economies reiterates the need for support mechanisms in managing risks from climate change. ...
Earth’s wilderness areas are reservoirs of genetic information and carbon storage systems, and are vital to
reducing extinction risks. Retaining the conservation value of these areas is fundamental to achieving global
biodiversity conservation goals; however, climate and land-use risk can undermine their ability to provide
these functions. The extent to which wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by these drivers has not pre�viously been quantified. Using climate and land-use change during baseline (1971–2005) and future (2016–
2050) periods, we estimate that these stressors within wilderness areas will increase by ca. 60% and 39%,
respectively, under a scenario of high emission and land-use change (SSP5-RCP8.5). Nearly half (49%) of
all wilderness areas could experience substantial climate change by 2050 under this scenario, potentially limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. Notable climate (>5 km year-1) and land-use (>0.25 km year-1) changes are expected to occur more rapidly in the unprotected wilderness, including the edges of the Amazonian wilderness, Northern Russia, and Central Africa, which support unique assemblages of species and are critical for the preservation of biodiversity. However, an alternative scenario of sustainable development (SSP1-RCP2.6) would attenuate the projected climate velocity and land-use instability by 54% and 6%,
respectively. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving the remaining intact natural ecosystems
can help fortify these bastions of biodiversity.
... Accounting for connectivity within and between realms is not only effective for species conservation, but additionally, reduces considerably the overall economic costs of protected areas (Margules & Pressey, 2000;Beger et al., 2010;Adams et al., 2014). Moreover, in the face of climate change, it is suggested that increasing connectivity among protected areas will reduce species extinction risk (Heller & Zavaleta, 2009;Keeley et al., 2018). The significance of connectivity is acknowledged at a political level too. ...
In the past years, efforts have been made to include connectivity metrics in conservation planning in order to promote and enhance well-connected systems of protected areas. Connectivity is particularly important for species that rely on more than one realm during their daily or life cycle (multi-realm species). However, conservation plans for the protection of multi-realm species usually involve a single realm, excluding other realms from the prioritization process. Here, we demonstrate an example of cross-realm conservation planning application for the island of Cyprus by taking into account the terrestrial and marine realms and their interface (i.e. coast). Operating within a data-poor context, we use functional connectivity metrics to identify priority areas for the conservation of six multi-realm species, by setting conservation targets simultaneously for the terrestrial and marine realms. MARXAN decision-support tool was used for the identification of the priority areas.
Four scenarios were developed to evaluate the impacts of including connectivity in the prioritization process and the effectiveness of the existing coastal/marine protected areas in the achievement of the conservation targets set for the species. All scenarios considered land and sea anthropogenic uses as surrogate costs to influence the prioritization process.
Our findings show an increase in the area of the reserve network and, therefore, the cost, when connectivity is included, whilst reducing the total boundary length. Furthermore, the current reserve network fails to achieve conservation targets, particularly for the marine part, which has a substantially smaller protection coverage than the terrestrial part.
We conclude that focus should be given in the expansion of the current coastal/marine reserve network following a cross-realm conservation approach. This approach is not only relevant for the conservation of multi-realm species, but also for islandscapes, in particular, where the interdependence between the hinterland and the coast is larger and therefore the magnitude of the impacts generated in one realm and affects the other.
... This process requires critical inquiry and interdisciplinary scholarship. Ecological connectivity is a key element for safeguarding biodiversity and an essential component of climate change adaptation (Heller and Zavaleta 2009;Samways and Pryke 2016;Timpane-Padgham et al. 2017). Connectivity refers to 'the degree to which the landscape facilitates or impedes movement among resource patches' (Taylor et al. 1993: 571) or 'the ease with which these individuals can move about within the landscape' (Kindlmann and Burel 2008: 880), but it also includes the movement or flow of abiotic factors such as nutrients and water. ...
... During the 1890s land,Council, 2008 ). Today less than 10% of indigenous vegetation remains from pre-1700Environmental change and climate change are key issues for biodiversity conservation throughout the world( Heller and Zavaleta, 2009 ). As discussed earlier, the BCSC is confronting several impacts of climate change and is considering long-term adaptation and mitigation interventions to manage these changes. ...
Coastal climate impact can affect coastal areas in a variety of ways, such as flooding, storm surges, reduction in beach sands and increased beach erosion. While each of these can have major impacts on the operation of coastal drainage systems, this thesis focuses on coastal and riverine
... Many scholars have pinpointed how biodiversity is responding to climate change. Scholars have analyzed climate change impact on ecosystems (Agrawal 1998;Folke, and Carpenter, et al. 2004;Saunders, and Easley, et al. 2007;Millar, and Stephenson, et al. 2007;Hobbs, and Cramer 2008;Frelich, and Reich 2009;Galatowitsch, and Frelich, et al. 2009) to species ( Parmesan 2006 ;Heller and Zavaleta 2009 ;Hannah 2008 ;Inkley, and Anderson, et al. 2004;Hoegh-Guldberg, and Hughes, et al. 2008). Scholar have also analyzed the climate change and invasive species ( Dukes and Mooney 1999 ; Brain et Bradley, and Blumenthal, et al. 2009;Hellmann, and Byers, et al. 2008;Mainka, and Howard 2010;Botkin 2001 ;Bentz, and Regniere, et al. 2010), climate change and fire (Flannigan, and Stocks, et al. 2000;Whitlock, and Shafer, et al. 2003;Fulé 2008 ;Noss 2001 ;Bachelet, and Lenihan, et al. 2000); climate change and water (Strayer, and Dudgeon 2010).;Heino, ...
... As climate and other global changes rapidly modify the context in which restoration and conservation measures are implemented, it is important to consider how the effects of management interventions will change. Specifically, testing scenarios to generate actionable recommendations (Heller & Zavaleta, 2009) will increase our ability to efficiently and effectively manage systems for biodiversity. Here we provide a model for understanding interactions between potential future climate conditions and common grassland management actions, which reveals that the timing of and type of managed disturbance (prescribed fire and mowing) and changes in snow depth lead to immediate and dramatic impacts on soil temperature dynamics. ...
Restoring ecosystems in a changing climate requires understanding how management interventions interact with climate conditions. In tallgrass prairies, disturbance through fire, mowing, or grazing is a critical force in maintaining herbaceous plant diversity. However, unlike historical fire regimes that occurred throughout the growing season, management actions like prescribed fire and mowing are commonly limited to the spring or fall seasons. Warming winters are resulting in less snow, causing overwintering plants to experience reduced insulation from snow and these more extreme winter conditions may be exacerbated or ameliorated depending on the timing of management actions. Understanding this novel interaction between the timing of management actions and snow depth is critical for managing and restoring grassland ecosystems. Here, we applied experimental management treatments (spring and fall burn and fall mow) in combination with snow depth manipulations to test whether the type and timing of commonly implemented disturbances interact with snow depth to affect restored prairie plant diversity and composition. Overall, snow manipulations and management actions influenced soil temperature while only management actions influenced spring thaw timing. Burning in the fall, which removes litter prior to winter resulted in colder soils and earlier spring thaw timing. However, plant communities were mostly resistant to these effects. Instead, plants responded to management actions such that burning and mowing, regardless of timing, increased plant diversity and spring burning increased flowering structure cover while reducing weedy cool season grass cover. Together these results suggest that grassland plant communities are resistant to winter climate change over the short term and that burning or mowing is critical to promoting plant diversity in tallgrass prairies.
... However, the governance procedures combine different perspectives and functional information in the aspect of ambiguity and examine potential trade-offs connected with those perspectives (Hagerman and Pelai 2018). Actionable strategies for biodiversity conservation and management with changing climate depend on specific ecological and geographic information (Heller and Zavaleta 2009). International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) 1994 recommended various measures to ensure sustainability. ...
Global forests are the hub of many economic, social, and environmental goods and services that influence the contentment of forest-dependent rural communities, regional and national economies, and achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The extent of the forest area continues to decline at an average rate of 4.7 million hectares per year globally. Around 1.6 billion people directly depend on forest resources for their basic requirements. Forests are recognized for reducing food insecurity, addressing poverty alleviation, and enhancing agricultural and environmental sustainability sustenance of rural people across the world. In addition to the increasing population pressure, forests are also experiencing repercussions from fire, diseases and pests, invasive alien species, developmental projects, improper forest governance, and climate change. To address these issues and conserve the forests and their resources, international fora developed numerous conservation strategies as well as global forest goals. The participation of local communities is also critical in this regard, and market prices for timber and timber products must be nondiscriminatory. The maintenance of the sustainability of forests and other natural resources is possible only through participatory and collaborative forest governance.
... Expected increases in temperature are likely to be associated with increased mortality [1]. Furthermore, the environmental impacts of climate change on biodiversity, crop production, and animal habitats pose a serious threat to the planet as we know it [2][3][4]. ...
Aviation is one of the sectors affecting climate change, and concerns have been raised over the increase in the number of flights all over the world. To reduce the climate impact, efforts have been dedicated to introducing biofuel blends as alternatives to fossil fuels. Here, we report environmentally relevant data on the emission factors of biofuel/fossil fuel blends (from 13 to 17% v/v). Moreover, in vitro direct exposure of human bronchial epithelial cells to the emissions was studied to determine their potential intrinsic hazard and to outline relevant lung doses. The results show that the tested biofuel blends do not reduce the emissions of particles and other chemical species compared to the fossil fuel. The blends do reduce the elemental carbon (less than 40%) and total volatile organic compounds (less than 30%) compared to fossil fuel emissions. The toxicological outcomes show an increase in oxidative cellular response after only 40 min of exposure, with biofuels causing a lower response compared to fossil fuels, and lung-deposited doses show differences among the fuels tested. The data reported provide evidence of the possibility to reduce the climate impact of the aviation sector and contribute to the risk assessment of biofuels for aviation.
... Although it is crucial to anticipate the relocation of current climatic conditions of KBAs, we believe that using this study to designate PAs in current KBAs would be more effective and less hazardous than designating PAs in sites that are expected to have future climatic conditions analog to current KBAs (i.e., KBA refuges, Heller & Zavaleta, 2009). Indeed, protecting KBA refuges would not reduce the values of local exposure metrics (LC and LA) as they are computed only from KBA cells (Figure 2). ...
Identifying sites that are both important for biodiversity and likely to be heavily affected by anthropogenic pressures in the future is crucial to settle priorities in the implementation of conservation measures, such as the designation of new protected areas. Although assessing the exposure of terrestrial Key Biodiversity Areas to global change would support such identification, it has never been performed to our knowledge. In addition, previous exposure assessments have been limited to few metrics of climate change and have not considered other global change components. Here, we assess the extent to which terrestrial (including inland water) Key Biodiversity Areas are exposed to future climate change and land-use modifications in 29 countries of the Mediterranean region, and identify countries where additional protection efforts are most needed. To this end, we calculated two local and two regional exposure metrics using projections of climate and land-use for late 21st century under four scenarios that were used in the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). These four exposure metrics were subsequently combined into an exposure index ranking sites from least to most exposed to climate and land-use
changes. We highlight that the most exposed non-protected Key Biodiversity Areas are located in countries where the protection of this network is lowest (i.e., high number and percentage of non-protected sites). We also found that Key Biodiversity Areas were overall more exposed than the rest of the study zone and that the sites most in need of conservation actions were similar across future scenarios. Our study reinforces the pressing necessity to strengthen and extend conservation measures in Mediterranean Key Biodiversity Areas, especially in Middle-East and Maghreb countries whose Key Biodiversity Areas are both at risk to be strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures and insufficiently protected.
... Climate change represents one of the main threats to biodiversity (Heller and Zavaleta, 2009;IPBES, 2019) and its effects are appearing more rapidly and with greater impacts at high latitudes (Fabry et al., 2009;IPCC, 2022). When studying the effects of climate change in marine ecosystems, the roles of temperatures and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are invariably linked (Enzor et al., 2013). ...
To predict the potential impacts of climate change on marine organisms, it is critical to understand how multiple stressors constrain the physiology and distribution of species. We evaluated the effects of seasonal changes in seawater temperature and near-future ocean acidification (OA) on organismal and sub-organismal traits associated with the thermal performance of Eleginops maclovinus, a sub-Antarctic notothenioid species with economic importance to sport and artisanal fisheries in southern South America. Juveniles were exposed to mean winter and summer sea surface temperatures (4 and 10 °C) at present-day and near-future pCO2 levels (~500 and 1800 μatm). After a month, the Critical Thermal maximum and minimum (CTmax, CTmin) of fish were measured using the Critical Thermal Methodology and the aerobic scope of fish was measured based on the difference between their maximal and standard rates determined from intermittent flow respirometry. Lipid peroxidation and the antioxidant capacity were also quantified to estimate the oxidative damage potentially caused to gill and liver tissue. Although CTmax and CTmin were higher in individuals acclimated to summer versus winter temperatures, the increase in CTmax was minimal in juveniles exposed to the near-future compared to present-day pCO2 levels (there was a significant interaction between temperature and pCO2 on CTmax). The reduction in the thermal tolerance range under summer temperatures and near-future OA conditions was associated with a reduction in the aerobic scope observed at the elevated pCO2 level. Moreover, an oxidative stress condition was detected in the gill and liver tissues. Thus, chronic exposure to OA and the current summer temperatures pose limits to the thermal performance of juvenile E. maclovinus at the organismal and sub-organismal levels, making this species vulnerable to projected climate-driven warming.
Protected Areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. Here, we collated distributional data for >14,000 (~70% of) species of amphibians and reptiles (herpetofauna) to perform a global assessment of the conserva- tion effectiveness of PAs using species distribution models. Our analyses reveal that >91% of herpetofauna species are currently distributed in PAs, and that this proportion will remain unaltered under future climate change. Indeed, loss of species’ distributional ranges will be lower inside PAs than outside them. Therefore, the proportion of effectively protected species is predicted to increase. However, over 7.8% of species currently occur outside PAs, and large spatial conservation gaps remain, mainly across tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, and across non-high-income countries. We also predict that more than 300 amphibian and 500 reptile species may go extinct under climate change over the course of the ongoing century. Our study highlights the importance of PAs in providing herpetofauna with refuge from climate change, and suggests ways to optimize PAs to better conserve biodiversity worldwide.
Climate change adaptation (CCA) has become a priority issue on the scientifc and management agenda around the relationship between sustainable development and climate change (CC), both globally and in the Andes. However, this is a very broad topic and there is no updated analysis of the knowledge needs regarding CCA in the Andes, which would allow the identifcation of priority areas of work to face the most urgent challenges imposed by global environmental change. Thus, CONDESAN in the framework of the A@A and the PBA (fnanced by the SDC), proposed
to carry out an analysis of the knowledge gaps and work priorities regarding CCA in the Andes, as an input to guide knowledge management efforts in this area, and as a contribution to guide decision making processes, as well as programmes for
the implementation of adaptation measures in the region.
The analysis was based on a comprehensive review of the scientifc literature, previous analyses of knowledge gaps and research agendas available globally and in the Andes, and a consultation process with more than 40 experts and decision-makers (with an emphasis on stakeholders linked to the IAM). The document first presents a review of the policy and conceptual framework in relation to CCA, including a review of the evolution of the issue globally and in the Andes. This is followed by a synthesis of the state of knowledge and gaps identifed around: (1) the
knowledge base on CC, vulnerability and impacts on Andean socioecosystems; and, (2) knowledge gaps for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies and policies. Given the wide range of issues related to this topic, we subdivided the analysis into the following areas of work: public policies and institutional framework;
water resources and glaciers; ecosystem-based adaptation; production systems; socio-economic, cultural and health aspects; and other sectors (energy, industry, infrastructure).
Context Both anthropogenic change and environmental variability cause spatiotemporal fluctuations in the availability of habitat on a landscape. Land acquisition and restoration for conservation also facilitates dynamic habitat accessibility. Accounting for these spatiotemporal dynamics is critical to the success of conservation planning to increase landscape connectivity.
Objectives We aimed to forecast the individual and interactive effects of anthropogenic change, environmental variability, and conservation action on landscape connectivity over time. In doing so, we sought to evaluate the capacity of conservation actions intended to enhance connectivity to keep pace with global change.
Methods We used a landscape change model to simulate strategies for the expansion of protected area networks on a ~1.5 million ha landscape in North Carolina. We forecasted spatiotemporal changes (2020-2100) to complex habitat networks across multiple scenarios of climate and land-use change, using graph theory to assess the variance in connectivity between conservation strategies and among global change futures.
Results Both climate and land-use change reduced the influence of conservation on landscape connectivity, but through different mechanisms. Climate change increased available longleaf pine habitat, improving overall landscape connectivity and camouflaging connectivity improvements from conservation. Land-use change reduced the connectivity improvements facilitated by conservation as the cost of movement between habitat patches increased.
Conclusion Rather than acting synergistically with land-use change, climate change negated the connectivity declines from land-use change in the study area. More broadly, our approach to forecast landscape-level responses to climate change, land-use change, and management can support the identification of conservation strategies that are more robust to global change, better enhancing landscape connectivity.
Context
Maintenance of connectivity is a commonly recommended strategy for species management and conservation as habitat loss and fragmentation continues. Therefore, functional connectivity modeling is needed for species over large geographic areas. However, sex-specific functional connectivity is rarely considered, even though the results of such an analysis have the potential to influence applied management practices.
Objectives
We use a large (n = 1902) genetic dataset to identify population level and sex-specific functional connectivity for cougars in Washington, USA.
Methods
We conducted a landscape genetics analysis that pseudo-optimized resistance surfaces for the full sample of cougars as well as for male and female groups. We then modeled connectivity across the top performing resistance surfaces with resistant kernels.
Results
The top resistance surface for females had higher resistance and lower connectivity than the males and had more spatial variability. However, we also observed greater resistance to movement and a lack of connectivity for males in and around the Olympic Peninsula. The resistance surface and connectivity models for all cougars contained both the broad features of the male models and the more heterogeneous features of the female models, indicating the importance of both local and regional dispersal and breeding.
Conclusions
In species with sex-specific differences in movement and dispersal, accounting for these differences can be important for understanding functional connectivity. For cougars in Washington, this revealed depressed connectivity for males on the Olympic Peninsula which may indicate a more immediate management concern for the future of this population than previously thought.
Kentsel ekolojik ağ yapısının bağlantılılık analizleri kapsamında incelenmesi ve ekolojik altyapının somut olarak ortaya konulması yapılacak planlama çalışmalarında önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Kent ve çevresinde sürdürülebilir gelişimin desteklenmesi ve iklim değişikliğine karşı direncin sağlanması açısından habitat bağlantılılığının değerlendirilmesi peyzajın ekolojik akışındaki sürekliliği sağlamak açısından önemlidir. Adana ili ve çevresinde artan kentleşme eğilimi ile kendini gösteren Arazi Örtüsü/Arazi Kullanım (AÖAK) değişiklikleri sonucu peyzaj deseninde birtakım değişiklikler meydana gelmiştir. Bu kapsamda habitat bağlantılılığın somut bir şekilde ele alınması, güncel veya potansiyel habitat parçalanmalarının izlenmesi için çizge teorisi temelli peyzaj metrikleri analizi yaklaşımı ile Adana ili ve çevresi örneğinde yapılan bir çalışma sunulmuştur. Çalışmanın ana materyalini oluşturan Arazi Örtüsü/Arazi Kullanım (AÖAK) haritası 2022 yılına ait Sentinel 2A görüntüsü kullanılarak Google Earth Engine (GEE)'de Obje Tabanlı Sınıflama yöntemi ile elde edilmiştir. Akarsular, Ormanlık Alanlar ve Kentsel yeşil alanlar kapsamında peyzaj bağlantılılığı GRAPHAB 2.8 yazılımı ile CC (Connectivity correlation), F (Flux), IIC (Integral index of connectivity) ve PC (Probability of connectivity) gibi ilgili indekslerle analiz edilmiştir. Yapılan bu çalışma ile habitat bağlantılılığının arttırılması ile kent ekosisteminin yapısını güçlendirecek daha ayrıntılı çalışmalara altlık hazırlamak amaçlanmıştır.
Human activities are linked to increasing pollution of water, air, and land. This pollution of the environment creates harmful effects on the organisms inhabiting the ecosystem within such localities. The increasing global population with the pressures of immigration to urban centers has created a frightening increase of urban population globally, rising from 751 million in 1950 to 4.5 billion in 2018. The pressure to feed this populace, provide goods and services to meet human needs has birthed unprecedented rise in commerce and industries of different kinds, making the cities of the world to contribute 60% to total global greenhouses gases emissions thereby polluting the air. The resultant greenhouse gases induced depleting effects on the ozone layer, have facilitated climate change with its attendant harmful characteristics, on the environment, ecosystems, and ultimately man. Greenhouse gases and other air pollutants are the central theme of climate change. This chapter has examined the impacts of air pollution on human health on short- and long-terms basis as well as on the environment such as acid rains, decreases/increases in rainfall and its impacts on crops cultivation, migratory pattern of birds, incidences of diseases vectors, flooding and drought with attendant ecological consequences on humans, crops, animals breeding and growth, and social-economic services. Changes in climatic conditions have been shown to affect animals and plants, while also tampering with income of farmers, while scarcity of water is shown to create conflicts between farmers and herders in rural communities, thereby creating social-political tensions in several demographics. The long-term impacts lie in the biodiversity loss, which distorts ecological dynamics in a manner that threatens humans, ecosystems/environment and ultimately the earth we all share. From this understanding, strategies to stem biodiversity loss and move toward cleaner ambient air were discussed and recommended.
Understanding population connectivity and its effect on patterns of adaptation and plasticity is important for development of climate adaptation strategies to manage species under a changing climate. Local adaptation is a balance between selection pressure and gene flow and provides species with fitness benefits under current conditions. Management strategies to respond to predicted shifts in climate may be able to leverage local adaptation to assist with species persistence. In this study we examine the genomic diversity, gene flow and associations between genomic and environmental variation in Taxandria linearifolia across its distribution in the Warren River Catchment. Gene flow was restricted between populations in the drier hotter upper catchment compared to those residing in the cooler wetter regions of the catchment, potentially limiting the flow of genes adapted to predicted future climates. Using two separate methods to search for candidate loci, we found the highest number of correlations between loci and the environmental variable of mean moisture content of the coldest quarter, supporting the hypothesis that floodplain species are linked with water availability. These research findings indicate that species restricted to wet environments and having traits facilitating high gene flow, can show signals of adaptation when gene flow is disrupted, and populations are isolated. This development of adaptation in isolated populations makes assisted migration of dry adapted genotypes to other populations an effective strategy for facilitating long term persistence under changing climates.
Confronted with the complex environmental crises of the Anthropocene, scientists have moved towards an interdisciplinary approach to address challenges that are both social and ecological. Several arenas are now calling for co-production of new transdisciplinary knowledge by combining Indigenous knowledge and science. This book revisits epistemological debates on the notion of co-production and assesses the relevant methods, principles and values that enable communities to co-produce. It explores the factors that determine how indigenous-scientific knowledge can be rooted in equity, mutual respect and shared benefits. Resilience through Knowledge Co-Production includes several collective papers co-authored by Indigenous experts and scientists, with case studies involving Indigenous communities from the Arctic, Pacific islands, the Amazon, the Sahel and high altitude areas. Offering guidance to indigenous peoples, scientists, decision-makers and NGOs, this book moves towards a decolonised co-production of knowledge that unites indigenous knowledge and science to address global environmental crises.
The successful conservation of bird species relies upon our understanding of their habitat use and requirements. In the coming decades the importance of such knowledge will only grow as climate change, the development of new energy sources and the needs of a growing human population intensify the, already significant, pressure on the habitats that birds depend on. Drawing on valuable recent advances in our understanding of bird-habitat relationships, this book provides the first major review of avian habitat selection in over twenty years. It offers a synthesis of concepts, patterns and issues that will interest students, researchers and conservation practitioners. Spatial scales ranging from landscape to habitat patch are covered, and examples of responses to habitat change are examined. European landscapes are the main focus, but the book has far wider significance to similar habitats worldwide, with examples and relevant material also drawn from North America and Australia.
The successful conservation of bird species relies upon our understanding of their habitat use and requirements. In the coming decades the importance of such knowledge will only grow as climate change, the development of new energy sources and the needs of a growing human population intensify the, already significant, pressure on the habitats that birds depend on. Drawing on valuable recent advances in our understanding of bird-habitat relationships, this book provides the first major review of avian habitat selection in over twenty years. It offers a synthesis of concepts, patterns and issues that will interest students, researchers and conservation practitioners. Spatial scales ranging from landscape to habitat patch are covered, and examples of responses to habitat change are examined. European landscapes are the main focus, but the book has far wider significance to similar habitats worldwide, with examples and relevant material also drawn from North America and Australia.
The successful conservation of bird species relies upon our understanding of their habitat use and requirements. In the coming decades the importance of such knowledge will only grow as climate change, the development of new energy sources and the needs of a growing human population intensify the, already significant, pressure on the habitats that birds depend on. Drawing on valuable recent advances in our understanding of bird-habitat relationships, this book provides the first major review of avian habitat selection in over twenty years. It offers a synthesis of concepts, patterns and issues that will interest students, researchers and conservation practitioners. Spatial scales ranging from landscape to habitat patch are covered, and examples of responses to habitat change are examined. European landscapes are the main focus, but the book has far wider significance to similar habitats worldwide, with examples and relevant material also drawn from North America and Australia.
Depending on management practices, agricultural lands can either pose substantial barriers to the movement of native species or can support landscape connectivity by linking areas of high-quality habitat. Balancing connectivity and sustainable food production on agricultural lands is critical to conservation in the conterminous United States (CONUS) where agriculture makes up close to half of total land area. However, limited guidance exists on where to target conservation resources to maximize benefits for native species and food security.
To quantify the potential contribution of agricultural lands to the movement of organisms, we developed a novel method for estimating agricultural management intensity (based on remotely sensed temporal variation in vegetation cover on croplands and pastures) and incorporated these estimates into a CONUS-wide, circuit-theory based model of ecological flow connectivity. We then combined our connectivity results with data on the productivity, versatility, and resilience of agricultural lands (PVR) to identify conservation opportunities that support both biodiversity and food production.
The highest levels of connectivity on agricultural lands occurred on relatively unmodified rangelands and on cropland and pasture in close proximity to large amounts of natural land cover.
Mapping connectivity and PVR across CONUS revealed 10.2 Mha of agricultural lands (2.7%) with high value for both connectivity and food production, as well as large amounts of agricultural land (>140 Mha in total) with high value for either cultivation or supporting biodiversity (e.g., through ecological restoration).
Drawing on these findings, we provide recommendations on the types of conservation approaches most suitable for a given agricultural system and link these recommendations to specific government incentive programs. To help facilitate conservation planning based on our results, we have developed an interactive web application, allowing users to visualize the spatial data developed here within their regions of interest.
Should wilderness be understood as primarily untrammeled or primarily natural? In this paper, we examine the conceptual and philosophical roots of untrammeled and natural in the context of the 1964 Wilderness Act and show how in some situations tension can arise between them, leading to a stewardship dilemma and subsequent debate over the future conservation role of wilderness. After showing that this debate is ultimately rooted in a false dichotomy, we offer a conceptual framework that presents managers with the tools necessary to shepherd the wilderness idea through the changing environmental realities of the Anthropocene, and continue to allow wilderness to be both a cornerstone and touchstone for conservation in the 21st century.
The potential effects of global climate change on marine protected areas do not appear to have been addressed in the literature. This paper examines the literature on protected areas, conservation biology, marine ecology, oceanography, and climate change, and reviews some of the relevant differences between marine and terrestrial environments. Frameworks and classifications systems used in protected area design are discussed. Finally, a framework that summarizes some of the important oceanographic processes and their links to the food chain are reviewed. Species abundance and distribution are expected to change as a result of global climate change, potentially compromising the efficacy of marine protected areas as biodiversity conservation tools. This review suggests the need for further interdisciplinary research and the use of linked models; an increase in marine protected areas for biodiversity conservation and as research sites for teasing apart fishing effects from climate effects; a temporally responsive approach to siting new marine protected areas, shifting their locations if necessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integrated management approaches to address the competing uses of the oceans and boundary-less threats such as global climate change and pollution.
Few studies have investigated the ability of national conservation networks to adapt to changes in underlying environmental drivers (such as precipitation) and their consequences for factors such as human density and species richness patterns. In this article, the South African avifauna is used as the basis for such analysis to ascertain the likely extent of current, and future, anthropogenic impacts on priority conservation areas. We show that human population pressure is high in or around most of these priority areas and is likely to increase, given the magnitude of post-climate change estimated from predicted changes in precipitation and relationships between species richness, human densities, and rainfall. Although additional conservation areas, such as the Important Bird Area (IBA) network, are likely to introduce valuable flexibility to conservation management, only limited options are available for such expansions, and the conservation value of these areas is likely to be compromised by changing climate. Ultimately, a more integrated conservation approach is needed for effective conservation policies. Such an approach should confer adequate protection on current reserves and emphasize sustainable utilization of non-reserve areas.
Evidence is mounting that evolutionary change can occur rapidly and may be an important means by which species escape extinction in the face of global change. Consequently, biologists need to incorporate evolutionary thinking into management decisions in conservation and restoration ecology. Here, we review the genetic and demographic properties that influence the ability of populations to adapt to rapidly changing selective pressures. To illustrate how evolutionary thinking can influence conservation and restoration strategies, we compare the potential of two California plant communities (vernal pools and blue oak woodlands) to evolve in response to global change. We then suggest ways in which restoration biologists can manipulate the genetic architecture of target populations to increase their ability to adapt to changing conditions. While there may not be any universal rules regarding the adaptive potential of species, an understanding of the various processes involved in microevolution will increase the short- and long-term success of conservation and restoration efforts.
Applied historical ecology is the use of historical knowledge in the management of ecosystems. Historical perspectives increase our understanding of the dynamic nature of landscapes and provide a frame of reference for assessing modern patterns and processes. Historical records, however, are often too brief or fragmentary to be useful, or they are not obtainable for the process or structure of interest. Even where long historical time series can be assembled, selection of appropriate reference conditions may be complicated by the past influence of humans and the many potential reference conditions encompassed by nonequilibrium dynamics. These complications, however, do not lessen the value of history; rather they underscore the need for multiple, comparative histories from many locations for evaluating both cultural and natural causes of variability, as well as for characterizing the overall dynamical properties of ecosystems. Historical knowledge may not simplify the task of setting management goals and making decisions, but 20th century trends, such as increasingly severe wildfires, suggest that disregarding history can be perilous. We describe examples from our research in the southwestern United States to illustrate
Abstract Concern for climate change has not yet been integrated in protocols for reserve selection. However if climate changes as projected, there is a possibility that current reserve-selection methods might provide solutions that are inadequate to ensure species' long-term persistence within reserves. We assessed, for the first time, the ability of existing reserve-selection methods to secure species in a climate-change context. Six methods using a different combination of criteria (representation, suitability and reserve clustering) are compared. The assessment is carried out using European distributions of 1200 plant species and considering two extreme scenarios of response to climate change: no dispersal and universal dispersal. With our data, 6–11% of species modelled would be potentially lost from selected reserves in a 50-year period. Measured uncertainties varied in 6% being 1–3% attributed to dispersal assumptions and 2–5% to the choice of reserve-selection method. Suitability approaches to reserve selection performed best, while reserve clustering performed poorly. We also found that 5% of species modelled would lose their entire climatic envelope in the studied area; 2% of the species modelled would have nonoverlapping distributions; 93% of the species modelled would maintain varying levels of overlapping distributions. We conclude there are opportunities to minimize species' extinctions within reserves but new approaches are needed to account for impacts of climate change on species; especially for those projected to have temporally nonoverlapping distributions.
If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO_2 concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.
Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1-minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas, using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km2 )a tall times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate-change models and the species' habitat-suitability and dispersal models.
Range shifts due to climate change may cause species to move out of protected areas. Climate change could therefore result in species range dynamics that reduce the relevance of current fixed protected areas in future conservation strategies. Here, we apply species distribution modeling and conservation planning tools in three regions (Mexico, the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, and Western Europe) to examine the need for additional protected areas in light of anticipated species range shifts caused by climate change. We set species representation targets and assessed the area required to meet those targets in the present and in the future, under a moderate climate change scenario. Our findings indicate that protected areas can be an important conservation strategy in such a scenario, and that early action may be both more effective and less costly than inaction or delayed action. According to our projections, costs may vary among regions and none of the three areas studied will fully meet all conservation targets, even under a moderate climate change scenario. This suggests that limiting climate change is an essential complement to adding protected areas for conservation of biodiversity.
Neither the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) nor the Kyoto Protocol include a satisfying mechanism for reducing the substantial emissions from deforestation which are responsible for about a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions. It is acknowledged that planting forests, for example through afforestation and reforestation in the Clean Development Mechanism, clearly provides an opportunity to sequester carbon in vegetation and soils. However, it takes decades to restore carbon stocks that have been lost as a result of land-use changes. Reducing the rate of deforestation is the only effective way to reduce carbon losses from forest ecosystems. As negotiations on a post-Kyoto agreement have already started the authors argue that a complete and fair post-Kyoto regime will have to expand existing regulations by creating a framework to encompass all land-use and forest-related changes in carbon stocks. Developing countries administer the majority of the world's environmental resources and provide a vital global public good by maintaining environmental assets. However, with increasing pressure on development and the use of resources, developing countries can hardly be expected to provide these services free. Therefore, they will have to be integrated into a more comprehensive incentive framework which also rewards forestry conservation, sustainable forest management and afforestation. The authors discuss how an incentive system for the protection of forests can be included in a future climate regime. Different design choices are considered and two recent approaches to reward developing countries that avoid further deforestation are compared: the ‘compensated reduction of deforestation’ approach and the Carbon Stock Approach.
The intensity of human pressure on marine systems has led to a push for stronger marine conservation efforts. Recently, marine reserves have become one highly advocated form of marine conservation, and the number of newly designated reserves has increased dramatically. Reserves will be essential for conservation efforts because they can provide unique protection for critical areas, they can provide a spatial escape for intensely exploited species, and they can potentially act as buffers against some management miscalculations and unforeseen or unusual conditions. Reserve design and effectiveness can be dramatically improved by better use of existing scientific understanding. Reserves are insufficient protection alone, however, because they are not isolated from all critical impacts. Communities residing within marine reserves are strongly influenced by the highly variable conditions of the water masses that continuously flow through them. To a much greater degree than in terrestrial systems, the scales of fundamental processes, such as population replenishment, are often much larger than reserves can encompass. Further, they offer no protection from some important threats, such as contamination by chemicals. Therefore, without adequate protection of species and ecosystems outside reserves, effectiveness of reserves will be severely compromised. We outline conditions under which reserves are likely to be effective, provide some guidelines for increasing their conservation potential, and suggest some research priorities to fill critical information gaps. We strongly support vastly increasing the number and size of marine reserves; at the same time, strong conservation efforts outside reserves must complement this effort. To date, most reserve design and site selection have involved little scientific justification. They must begin to do so to increase the likelihood of attaining conservation objectives.
During the past decade, our understanding of the potential risks that climate change poses to ecosystem function and natural-area protection has increased. Simulation studies of expected changes in species ranges and changes in ecosystem dynamics have indicated that rapidly changing climatic conditions could significantly thwart natural-area protection efforts at a global scale. In response to this potential threat, prescriptive policy and management recommendations have begun to emerge. These management responses include general guidelines for selecting new protected habitats, preemptive actions such as the development of connective corridor systems between protected areas, and active habitat management interventions. At present, many suggested natural-area management responses are only vaguely defined and have yet to be fully tested. To be effective, management responses must now be rigorously assessed with focused and practical ecological analysis. In this overview I examine the current state of research on the risks posed to natural-area protection bY climate change and the feasibility of suggested management responses. Examples of potential impacts on global nature-reserve systems, the composition of landscape boundaries of natural ecosystems, and latitudinal differences in expected ecosystem response are presented to illustrate the complexity of potential habitat changes. Examples of potential nature-reserve impacts are provided to demonstrate that the spatial variation presented in climate-change scenarios significantly affects the distribution of climatic impacts on areas of biodiversity protection. An assessment of the composition of landscape boundaries of natural vegetation areas is used to demonstrate the urgent need for analysis of ecosystem dynamics in human-dominated landscapes. Changes in potential vegetation zones at different latitudes are presented to identify limitations in the use of generic rules of altitudinal species response applied globally. Ecological researchers can advance our understanding of ecosystem responses to climate change by conducting well-defined sensitivity analyses at site-specific or sub-regional scales; the current lack of fine-scale climate models need not delay such research. Direct extrapolation of observed species distributions in relation to present climate as a means for projecting future responses is inappropriate; such projections must include consideration of physiological tolerances, competition, and dispersal mechanisms. Understanding local disturbance regimes is fundamental to understanding changes in ecosystem properties and stability. How landscape fragmentation interacts with population mobility and dynamics must be defined in order to better characterize ecosystem controls. Finally, management interventions must be critically evaluated with regard to ecological viability and benefits vs. COSTS.
Abstract. Spatial and temporal variation in the breeding of Masked Lapwings (Vanellus miles) in Australia were examined using data from Birds Australia’s Nest Record Scheme (NRS; 1957–2002), the Atlas of Australian Birds (1998–2006), and climatic data (1952–2006). Breeding in north-western Australia was concentrated in summer, while in other regions the peak of breeding occurred during spring. Breeding success varied between regions and years but was generally highest in Tasmania. Clutch-size (mean 3.57 eggs ± 0.033 s.e., n = 549 clutches) did not vary regionally or temporally. In the northeast, breeding became earlier over time (~1.9 days per year, NRS), while in the south-east, breeding became later (~0.9 days per year); in other regions temporal trends were not evident. Only Tasmania showed a significant temporal change in breeding success (decrease of ~1.5% per year). All regions experienced warming climates, and annual rainfall increased in north-western regions and decreased in eastern regions. There were weak or no relationships between the amount or success of breeding, clutch-size and the climatic variables considered (with the possible exception of Tasmania), suggesting either that data limitations precluded us from detecting subtle effects or that Masked Lapwings have been little influenced or are resilient to changes in climate over most of their range.
Biodiversity should be protected in more ecosystem and landscape reserves. It is a reasonable management objective on timber lands. Maintaining biodiversity is important because we cannot always identify which individual species are critical to ecosystem sustainability, nor which species may be useful to mankind in future. Many wild species can provide useful natural products and genetic material, and can serve as ecological indicators. Diversity reduces pest and disease problems, and encourages recovery from disturbance. Uncertainty exists with regard to climate change and future socioeconomic values. It is therefore prudent to maximize flexibility by promoting a wide array of species and potential products. Suggestions are offered on how to promote biodiversity in multiple-use forests. -from Authors
conservation dollars to address this crisis has had a profound influence on the planning methods and conservation strate-gies of governmental and nongovernmental organizations. For example, World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Conservation International have pinpointed priority ecoregions and bio-diversity "hotspots," respectively, that represent some of the most significant remaining regions for conserving the world's biological diversity (Olson and Dinerstein 1998, Myers et al. 2000). Both The Nature Conservancy (TNC) (Master et al. 1998) and World Wildlife Fund (Abell et al. 2000) have set con-servation priorities at the scale of large watersheds for fresh-water ecosystems in the United States. The National Gap Analysis Program (GAP) of the US Geological Survey's Bio-logical Resources Division is using biological survey data, remote sensing, and geographic information systems (GIS) technology at the state level to identify those native species and ecosystems that are not adequately represented in existing con-servation lands, in other words, the aim of the program is to detect conservation "gaps" (Jennings 2000). Some state governments in the United States are also developing their own biodiversity conservation plans (e. g., Kautz and Cox 2001).
In the past decade, a growing number of studies have modeled the effects of climate change on large numbers of species across diverse focal regions. Many common points emerge from these studies, but it can be difficult to understand the consequences for conservation when data for large numbers of species are summarized. Here we use an in-depth example, the multispecies modeling effort that has been conducted for the proteas of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to illustrate lessons learned in this and other multispecies modeling efforts. Modeling shows that a substantial number of species may lose all suitable range and many may lose all representation in protected areas as a result of climate change, while a much larger number may experience major loss in the amount of their range that is protected. The spatial distribution of protected areas, particularly between lowlands and uplands, is an important determinant of the likely conservation consequences of climate change.
Mangroves, the only woody halophytes living at the confluence of land and sea, have been heavily used traditionally for food, timber, fuel and medicine, and presently occupy about 181 000 km2 of tropical and subtropical coastline. Over the past 50 years, approximately one-third of the world's mangrove forests have been lost, but most data show very variable loss rates and there is considerable margin of error in most estimates. Mangroves are a valuable ecological and economic resource, being important nursery grounds and breeding sites for birds, fish, crustaceans, shellfish, reptiles and mammals; a renewable source of wood; accumulation sites for sediment, contaminants, carbon and nutrients; and offer protection against coastal erosion. The destruction of mangroves is usually positively related to human population density. Major reasons for destruction are urban development, aquaculture, mining and overexploitation for timber, fish, crustaceans and shellfish. Over the next 25 years, unrestricted clear felling, aquaculture, and overexploitation of fisheries will be the greatest threats, with lesser problems being alteration of hydrology, pollution and global warming. Loss of biodiversity is, and will continue to be, a severe problem as even pristine mangroves are species-poor compared with other tropical ecosystems. The future is not entirely bleak. The number of rehabilitation and restoration projects is increasing worldwide with some countries showing increases in mangrove area. The intensity of coastal aquaculture appears to have levelled off in some parts of the world. Some commercial projects and economic models indicate that mangroves can be used as a sustainable resource, especially for wood. The brightest note is that the rate of population growth is projected to slow during the next 50 years, with a gradual decline thereafter to the end of the century. Mangrove forests will continue to be exploited at current rates to 2025, unless they are seen as a valuable resource to be managed on a sustainable basis. After 2025, the future of mangroves will depend on technological and ecological advances in multi-species silviculture, genetics, and forestry modelling, but the greatest hope for their future is for a reduction in human population growth.
The responsiveness of South African fauna to climate change events is poorly documented and not routinely incorporated into regional conservation planning. We model the likely range alterations of a representative suite of 179 animal species to climate change brought about by the doubling of CO2 concentrations. This scenario is expected to cause a mean temperature increase of 2 °C. We applied a multivariate climate envelope approach and evaluated model performance using the most comprehensive bird data set. The results were encouraging, although model performance was inconsistent in the eastern coastal area of the country. The levels of climate change induced impacts on species ranges varied from little impact to local extinction. Some 17% of species expanded their ranges, 78% displayed range contraction (4–98%), 3% showed no response and 2% became locally extinct. The majority of range shifts (41%) were in an easterly direction, reflecting the east–west aridity gradient across the country. Species losses were highest in the west. Substantially smaller westward shifts were present in some eastern species. This may reflect a response to the strong altitudinal gradient in this region, or may be a model artifact. Species range change (composite measure reflecting range contraction and displacement) identified selected species that could act as climate change indicator taxa. Red-data and vulnerable species showed similar responses but were more likely to display range change (58% vs. 43% for all species). Predictions suggest that the flagship, Kruger National Park conservation area may loose up to 66% of the species included in this analysis. This highlights the extent of the predicted range shifts, and indicates why conflicts between conservation and other land uses are likely to escalate under conditions of climate change.
Climate change and its interactions with human modification of the biosphere will result in major changes in species and ecosystem distributions, dynamics, and interactions. Here, we discuss major categories of management responses to climate change impacts on biodiversity. Adaptation or adjustment of natural or human systems are explored, including common conservation strategies, protected areas, and landscape and seascape connectivity. Ecosystem-based adaptation is defined and explored, to highlight the benefits of conserving ecosystems for the inherent services they provide to humans. Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD +) policy have great potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from clearing of forests in subtropical and tropical countries. Implementation and financing this policy has been a challenge with many recommendations for improvement and successful implementation and is a topic that is being refined in international dialoges. The detrimental impacts of deforestation through land use changes for biofuel production are very significant, and biofuels have a long payback period and release between 17 and 420 times more emissions upfront. Conservation needs to be concerned with both the direct impacts of climate change on biodiversity, but also the indirect effects (positive) of REDD and the negative indirect effects of biofuels production.
Understanding the natural world around us requires knowledge of its component parts. From an ecological function perspective,
these parts are species. Partitioning the world of living things into distinguishable, universally recognized species, each with a unique sci
entific name, is difficult, especially when one considers the numerous kinds of microscopic organisms that make up most of the planet's
biodiversity. Biosystematics is the study of the origin of biological diversity and the evolutionary relationships among species and
higher-level groups (laxa). Taxonomy is the theory and practice of identifying, describing, naming and classifying organisms.
Despite the emergence of national and international issues and programs concerning conservation of biodiversity, climate change and
invasive alien organisms, all of which demand significant taxonomic input and require an increased investment in systematics,
Canada's investment in this discipline has not risen to meet the challenge. Since the mid-1970s the number of taxonomists employed
by the federal government has been reduced by about one half. Canada must do more than maintain the inadequate status quo by increas
ing its investment in systematics in order to meet our nation's obligations, both domestically and internationally.
Summary • Climate change is recognized as a major threat to the survival of species and integrity of ecosystems world-wide. Although considerable research has focused on climate impacts, relatively little work to date has been conducted on the practical application of strategies for adapting to climate change. Adaptation strategies should aim to increase the flexibility in management of vulnerable ecosystems, enhance the inherent adaptability of species and ecosystem processes, and reduce trends in environmental and social pressures that increase vulnerability to climate variability. • Knowledge of the specific attributes of climate change likely to impact on species or habitats is central to any adaptive management strategy. Temperature is not the only climate variable likely to change as a result of anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. In some regions changes in precipitation, relative humidity, radiation, wind speed and/or potential evapotranspiration may be more marked than for temperature. • Uncertainty exists in the response of species and ecosystems to a given climate scenario. While climate will have a direct impact on the performance of many species, for others impacts will be indirect and result from changes in the spatiotemporal availability of natural resources. In addition, mutualistic and antagonistic interactions among species will mediate both the indirect and direct effects of climate change. • Approaches to predict species’ responses to climate change have tended to address either changes in abundance with time or in spatial distribution. While correlative models may provide a good indication of climate change impacts on abundance, greater understanding is generated by models incorporating aspects of life history, intra- and interspecific competition and predation. Models are especially sensitive to the uncertainty inherent in future climate predictions, the complexity of species’ interactions and the difficulties in parameterizing dispersal functions. Model outputs that have not been appropriately validated with real data should be treated with caution. • Synthesis and applications. While climate impacts may be severe, they are often exacerbated by current management practices, such as the construction of sea defences, flood management and fire exclusion. In many cases adaptation approaches geared to safeguard economic interests run contrary to options for biodiversity conservation. Increased environmental variability implies lower sustainable harvest rates and increased risks of population collapse. Climate change may significantly reduce habitat suitability and may threaten species with limited dispersal ability. In these cases, well-planned species translocations may prove a better option than management attempts to increase landscape connectivity. Mathematical models, long-term population studies, natural experiments and the exploitation of natural environmental gradients provide a sound basis for further understanding the consequences of climate change. Journal of Applied Ecology (2005) 42, 784 –794 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2005.01082.x
The steep environmental gradients of mountains result in the juxtaposition of diverse vegetation associations with narrow ecotones because life zones are compressed. Variation in geologic substrate, landforms, and soils, in combination with steep environmental gradients, create habitat diversity across spatial scales from 10<sup>6</sup> ha to <10 m<sup>2</sup>. This leads to higher biodiversity in a smaller space than in landscapes with less topographic variation. Mountains are often considered to be refuges for biological diversity at the regional scale, although variation in landscape features creates refuges at a fine scale as well. Mountains should also be considered a source of biological diversity, because they provide the germplasm for migration into lowland areas following glacial recession. Many taxa are distributed over a broad range of elevations and habitats, which maximizes the potential to respond to environmental perturbations. Reorganization of species distribution and abundance as a result of climatic change may be impacted considerably by human-caused fragmentation of landscape features, especially at lower elevations. This paper uses palaeoecological and biogeographical data to investigate the spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics of a steep maritime range, the Olympic Mountains (USA). The role of resource management in protecting vegetation in a fragmented landscape is discussed, with emphasis on how to address uncertainties such as climatic change.
The definition of desertification accepted in the ad hoc conference held by UNEP in Nairobi in 1977 and confirmed at the Earth Summit on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 is: ‘arid, semi-arid and dry-subhumid land degradation’. There is no global long-term trend in any rainfall change over the period of instrumental record (c. 150 years), but there has been an increase of 0·5°C in global temperature over the past 100 years. This increase seems partly due to urbanization, as there is no evidence of it resulting from atmospheric pollution by CO2and other warming gases (SO2, NO2, CH4, CFH etc.). On the other hand, the thermal increase is uneven, increasing with latitudes above 40° N and S. The increase is only slight or non-existent in subtropical and inter-tropical latitudes where most arid and semi-arid lands lie. This, incidently, is consistent with Global Circulation Models (GCM) — derived scenarios. The study of tree-rings, lake level fluctuations and pollen analysis confirm the existence of climatic fluctuations, but with no long-term trends over the past 2000 years.
The response and feedbacks of forest systems to global environmental change, including the ecosystems of West Africa, are expected to be profound. A comparative assessment of current and future forest distribution in Cameroon and Ghana in response to land-use change and global climate change was completed. From 1970 to 1990, the forest area of Cameroon and Ghana declined dramatically due to harvesting and degradation, averaging 0.6 and 1.3% each year, respectively. The areal distribution of West African forest systems is projected to shift 5 to 15%, based on 4 General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios and the Holdridge Life Zone Classification System. Loss of forest habitat due to destruction, degradation and climate change is projected to increase animal and plant species loss. Adaptation of evergreen and deciduous forest systems to global environmental change poses many challenges for Cameroon and Ghana. Application of low-input, indigenous resource management options, which have been practiced on a sustained basis for centuries, may be a feasible adaptation goal.
According to projections by the United Nations, 60% of the world’s population will reside in urban areas by 2030. Studies of the ecology of cities and ecology in cities will therefore assume increasing relevance as urban communities seek to protect and/or enhance their ecological resources. Presently, the most serious threats to wildlife include the degradation and/or loss of habitats, the introduction and spread of problem species, water pollution, unsympathetic management, and the encroachment of inappropriate development. Climate change could add to these problems through competition from exotic species, the spread of disease and pests, increased summer drought stress for wetlands and woodland, and sea-level rise threatening rare coastal habitats. Earlier springs, longer frost-free seasons, and reduced snowfall could further affect the dates of egg-laying, as well as the emergence, first flowering and health of leafing or flowering plants. Small birds and naturalized species could thrive in the warmer winters associated with the combined effect of regional climate change and enhanced urban heat island. This article reviews the range of climate-related threats to biodiversity in the aquatic, intertidal and terrestrial habitats of urban areas. London is used as a case study to illustrate potential impacts, and to contend that ‘green spaces’ in cities could be used by planners to counter climate-related threats to biodiversity, as well as to improve flood control and air quality, and reduce urban heat island effects.
Much less attention has been paid in recent years to the threats to coastal and marine biodiversity, compared to biodiversity in more terrestrial habitats. The tremendous biodiversity at risk and the severity and magnitude of the pressures being exerted on coastal habitats suggest the need for much greater attention to be focused here by both the policy and scientific communities. The threats to coastal biodiversity are numerous and include air and water pollution; over exploitation and harvesting; the introduction of exotic species; the dramatic loss of habitat due to urbanization, agricultural expansion, and other land use changes; and the potentially serious effects of global climate change. These threats suggest the need for swift action at a number of jurisdictional and governmental levels. Major components of such an effort are identified and described. These include the need for comprehensive management approaches, the expansion of parks and protected areas, restoration and mitigation, multinational and international initiatives, and efforts to promote sustainable development and sustainable lifestyles. Suggestions for future research are also provided.
A spatially explicit model (MIGRATE) was used to investigate the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on the ability of species to migrate in response to climate change. Illustrative simulations were run using parameters that represent the reproductive and dispersal characteristics of the wind-dispersed tree Tilia cordata (small-leaved lime). Hierarchically structured landscapes with different patch sizes and overall habitat suitability levels were generated at a 1-km resolution for a 200 x 800 km area. Simulated migration rates slowed markedly when habitat availability fell below ~25% of the landscape area, especially in landscapes composed of fewer larger patches. The implication of these results for the management of landscapes for species conservation is discussed.
This special issue is dedicated to research on climate change in Africa. This research has, until recently, taken a back seat to more pressing applied research on natural resource manage- ment. As countries of the world position themselves with respect to climate change, it is important for African nations to better understand the likely impacts of climate change on their environment, peo- ples and economies. African researchers are now starting to address global change research issues, and this special issue provides a sample of recent research on climate change. Climate change must be an integral part of the long-term sustainable development agenda for African nations. Coping with and adapting to climate change requires a strong scientific understanding integrated with socioeconomic and policy considerations. At this time, international efforts are developing the cli- mate change research agendas needed to develop this basic understanding and explore ways to inte- grate physical and social processes within a modeling framework. The immediate focus is on under- taking regional scale analyses and coupled models suited to the African physical and socioeconomic environment. This paper summarizes the rationale for this special issue, identifies the key issues addressed in the contributions and provides a concise research framework for further work on Africa. One of the primary goals of this framework is to develop regional integrated assessment models for Africa. These models are a necessary step towards strengthening the analysis of impacts and help make the necessary connection between science understanding, resource management and public policy. Integrated assessments will also help incorporate climate change analysis and prediction in sustainable development schemes.