No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Integrated water and economic modelling of the impacts of water market instruments on the South African economy
Abstract
A static computable general equilibrium model of South Africa is adapted to compare new taxes on water demand by two industries, namely forestry, and irrigated field crops. Comparisons are made with respect to both the short and the long run, in terms of three target variables, namely (i) the environment; (ii) the economy; and (iii) equity. Since the taxes on the two industries do not raise the same amount of revenue, the target variables are calculated per unit of real government revenue raised by the new taxes (also referred to as the marginal excess burdens of the taxes). The model results are robust for moderate values of the water elasticity of demand in the two industries, in both the long and the short run. The tax on irrigated field crops performs better in terms of all three the target variables in the short run. In the long run the tax on irrigated filed crops is better in terms of water saving, but reduces real GDP and the consumption by poor households.
... Energy issues have also been a major area of focus in the growing application of CGEs (see e.g. Alton et al. 2012;Devarajan et al. 2009;Altman et al. 2008;Cameron & Naudé 2008;Van Heerden et al. 2006;Van Heerden et al. 2008;and De Wet & Van Heerden 2003). Furthermore, after the 2008 energy (load-shedding) crisis, energy issues have started receiving much more focus. ...
... It could also be expected that the current economic structure captured in the database may well change profoundly based on a significant gas find. Other parameters used in the model, such as elasticities, are obtained from other econometric studies or by making plausible 'guesstimates' (Van Heerden et al. 2008). ...
... The model used, in conjunction with the above database, is a South African adaptation of the Australian ORANI-G (G = generic) model termed the UPGEM, formally known as the University of Pretoria General Equilibrium Model (see Van Heerden et al. 2008). The UPGEM version used differentiates 39 sectors (including six additional agricultural and six additional energy-related sectors that were not in the original 1998 SAM − see Van Heerden et al. 2006;Van Heerden et al. 2008), 12 household types and four ethnic groups. ...
It has been said that the development of a shale gas industry could be a ‘game changer’ for South Africa. Proponents of shale gas tend to emphasise the benefits, whilst opponents emphasise the environmental costs. This paper is an attempt to inform the policy debate by highlighting both the potential economic benefits and environmental costs. To date, the Econometrix report (published in 2012) provides the only estimate of the economic impacts that may emanate from developing the Karoo’s shale gas. The report uses a Keynesian multiplier model to estimate the impacts. The analysis performed in this paper estimates the economic impacts using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling approach, and the results are compared to the findings of the Econometrix report. In doing so, this paper provides an expanded view of the potential economic impact. Accordingly, this paper provides a number of findings on the estimated economic impact of shale gas extraction – based on the application of an economy-wide impact modelling methodology – which should be of interest to both opponents and proponents of the shale gas industry. By including all possible results, such as a boost in public sector jobs and an analysis of the impact on consumer prices and jobs in other sectors, this paper expands the current understanding of the likely impact of shale gas extraction in the Karoo of South Africa.
... Water is South Africa's (SA's) most important natural resource as the country is water-scarce and considered semi-arid with the mean annual rainfall of approximately 450 mm, well below the global average of 860 mm/a (DWAF 2004;van Heerden et al. 2008;Muller et al. 2009). The protection of freshwater sources is one of the most imperative issues affecting socio-economic development in the future. ...
... is a water-scarce and semi-arid country receiving ±450 mm mean precipitation annually yielding 1 110m 3 of water per person as at 2005(DWAF 2004Calder 2005;van Heerden et al. 2008;Muller et al. 2009). It is not the mean rainfall which makes SA semi-arid but the low rainfall to runoff conversion of 8.6% due to high evaporation rates (Snaddon 2000). ...
... Today the figure stands at 66% (of the SA's mean annual river runoff) and little surface water outside of dams can be used commercially (DEA 2007). A meagre 8.3% of precipitation in SA reaches dam outlets or rivers controlled by relevant authorities as a direct input or as runoff from higher ground (van Heerden et al. 2008). These dams although very necessary for mass storage of water, often alter the regime of the watercourse significantly which has negative impacts on downstream characteristics of the rivers (Noble and Hemens 1978). ...
South Africa is a water-scarce county and requires good quality and quantity of water supply for all aspects of the economy and for consumption by residents. Thus the protection of freshwater resources is one of the, if not the most imperative, issues pertaining to socioeconomic development in the short and long term future. The Mpumalanga Province developed an integrated development plan in which ensuring provision of safe and sustainable water for various uses is a key development goal. Land conservation and fragmentation has taken place over much of the province and many of the current uses have a negative effect on runoff in catchment areas. The aims of this study were to determine the land uses in selected catchments with large dams which provide water for consumption and industry, and to identify the links between different land cover and the condition of rivers in the respective catchments. A spatial meta-analysis was conducted using land cover, river condition and water supply data to determine the proportions of various land uses in each catchment. The catchment land cover results allow for the focus of strategies in future work. There was a moderate positive correlation between natural land cover in catchments and rivers in a healthy condition. Only two of the selected dams showed any potential influence on river condition flowing out of the dams. Twenty eight sub-catchments were identified as being important high water-yield areas, of which only four have a high groundwater recharge and mean annual runoff. These areas should be the main focus of establishing conservation areas for the protection of water resources and freshwater ecosystems, followed by rivers in good condition outside of high water-yield areas. Areas which contain irreplaceable terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity that overlap areas with vital water resources will be an additional benefit to creating a province forging a path of sustainable development. "Whatever happens within a catchment will ultimately affect the river draining it and will bounce back on us, the users and abusers."-Davies and Day (1998: 111)
... In contrast, while the introduction of a water resource tax in South Africa increased tax revenue and saved water consumption in the short term, the tax also reduced agricultural household income and lowered national consumption levels in the long run (van Heerden et al., 2008) [11]. Porcher (2017) studied the relationship between a French water tax and consumer behavior. ...
... This paper provides the following innovations to this research field: First, some scholars have posited that a water resource tax improves water resource utilization efficiency and enhances the technological competitiveness of enterprises (Clinch et al., 2001;Berbel et al., 2019) [9,10]. In contrast, other scholars have posited that a water resource tax reduces the level of national consumption (van Heerden et al., 2008) [11]. Further, other scholars have posited that water resource tax reforms produce insignificant water savings (Porcher, 2017) [12]. ...
Water resources are a fundamental natural and strategic economic resource and are closely related to high-quality economic and societal development. This paper uses the pilot implementation of the water resource tax reform to explore the impact of that reform on the green innovation and total factor productivity of enterprises. The study sample includes data for high water-consuming A-share listed enterprises in Shenzhen and Shanghai, China, from 2007 to 2021; the double-difference method was used for the analysis. Study findings indicate that replacing water resource fees with taxes significantly improves the green innovation level and total factor productivity of enterprises. Green innovation has a significant partial mediating effect between the water resource tax reform and total factor productivity. The water resource tax reform promotes green innovation in enterprises, enhancing total factor productivity. When considering different types of enterprise property rights, the economic effect of the water resource tax reform is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises, compared to state-owned enterprises. This paper provides empirical evidence for expanding the pilot scope of the water resource tax reform.
... On the other hand, the fight against poverty is a major challenge to achieve equitable and sustainable development and water plays an important role here (Heerden, Blignaut & Horridge, 2008) being considered one of the limiting factors for development (Aronson, Blignaut, Milton & Clewell, 2006). When people do not have access to safe drinking water at home or when they do not have access to water as a productive resource, their choices and freedoms are limited by health, poverty and vulnerability problems. ...
... "Poverty eradication is the greatest global challenge facing the world today and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development" (United Nations [UN], 2012, p. 1) and water plays an important role here (FM, 2001;Heerden, Blignaut & Horridge, 2008). Water is considered one of the limiting factors to development (Aronson, Blignaut, Milton & Clewell, 2006), particularly with regards to the lack of access to freshwater and sanitation or access to water as a productive resource (Water Assessment Programme [WWAP], 2015). ...
... The computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework overcomes these limitations by allowing for substitution possibilities in supply and demand systems, and endogenous price determination. Previous CGE applications to water policy reforms in SA however, only focused on quantity allocations (Letsoalo et al., 2007;Juana et al., 2008;Van Heerden et al., 2008;Blignaut & Van Heerden, 2009;Gill & Punt, 2010;Hassan & Thurlow, 2011). Studies that analyse quality dimensions of water management in SA using the CGE framework are, to the best of our knowledge, non-existent. ...
... In water management, studies have analysed the impact of water policies on water use and allocation as well as the associated costs and trade-offs (Hassan & Thurlow, 2011). Other studies have focused on the impacts of water pricing (Letsoalo et al., 2007;Van Heerden et al., 2008;Gill & Punt, 2010), climate change ( Juana et al., 2008) and macroeconomic policies (Blignaut & Van Heerden, 2009) on sectoral water allocations, the environment, household welfare and economic growth. However, the focus has so far been only on managing the quantity of water and, to the best of our knowledge, no effort has so far been made to analyse water quality management dimensions using the CGE framework in SA. ...
A series of pollution control measures have been introduced to protect water quality in the Olifants river basin, the third most water-stressed and most polluted basin in South Africa. This paper employed an environmentally extended computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse the economic and environmental implications of a tax on water pollution in the basin. Implications of increasing the pollution tax rate currently in place for the levels of economic activities and water quality have been simulated under alternative tax revenue recycling schemes. Results of our policy simulations suggest that internalising the cost of water pollution through the tax regime achieves its environmental goals of protecting the aquatic ecosystem, by shifting production away from pollution-intensive sectors. This, however, comes at some costs to the regional economy of the basin. Recycling the tax revenue through income transfers to households or a subsidy to pollution abatement mitigates the adverse economic impacts.
... On the other hand, the fight against poverty is a major challenge to achieve equitable and sustainable development and water plays an important role here (Heerden, Blignaut & Horridge, 2008) being considered one of the limiting factors for development (Aronson, Blignaut, Milton & Clewell, 2006). When people do not have access to safe drinking water at home or when they do not have access to water as a productive resource, their choices and freedoms are limited by health, poverty and vulnerability problems. ...
... "Poverty eradication is the greatest global challenge facing the world today and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development" (United Nations [UN], 2012, p. 1) and water plays an important role here (FM, 2001;Heerden, Blignaut & Horridge, 2008). Water is considered one of the limiting factors to development (Aronson, Blignaut, Milton & Clewell, 2006), particularly with regards to the lack of access to freshwater and sanitation or access to water as a productive resource (Water Assessment Programme [WWAP], 2015). ...
EDITORIAL
En este número monográfico de la revista THIJ, Tourism and Hospitality International Journal sobre Health and Wellness Tourism. Thermalism and Spa (Special Edition) se recoge 11 artículos científicos seleccionados de los trabajos presentados al I International Forum on Tourism and Heritage 2016 (IFTH16): Water, Heritage and Sustainable Tourism en el Track Health and Wellness Tourism Thermalism, Thalassotherapy and Spa celebrado en la Universidade Portucalense entre los días 5 a 7 de diciembre de 2016 (Porto, Portugal).
Los Directores de la Conferencia el Sr. Abilio Cardoso, Sra. Isabel Vaz de Freitas y Sra. Maria Manuela Barreto Nunes (Universidade Portucalense, Portugal) indican que esta “primera edición de IFTH16 se centra en el agua como un recurso vital ahora y en el futuro y tiene la intención de promover estudios y prácticas a nivel internacional, teniendo en cuenta el uso y la protección de este recurso esencial para la vida. El agua es un elemento cultural y natural presente en todas las sociedades y paisajes que asumen características diferentes en los campos del patrimonio material e inmaterial. Es una presencia importante en todos los territorios y un componente interesante de la economía y las actividades culturales. Se caracteriza por la
diversidad de la acción humana que asegura a las personas y coloca su propia identidad. El mundo
de hoy plantea inquietudes sobre el uso de recursos naturales y culturales y reconoce la importancia del turismo, el movimiento de personas y la visita de espacios para el desarrollo económico de países y regiones”.
En este sentido, el I International Forum on Tourism and Heritage 2016 (IFTH16) nace con el objetivo de “crear un debate efectivo sobre los temas del patrimonio natural y cultural, su protección y preservación, y reflexionar sobre la importancia del turismo como el elemento principal de toda esta dinámica”. Así, se convierte en un foro de encuentro científico de los profesionales e investigadores de esta área del turismo que se reúnen para debatir y presentar sus trabajos de investigación.
Con la edición de este número especial sobre Health and Wellness Tourism. Thermalism and Spa (Special Edition) se pretende aumentar la literatura en este ámbito de estudio recopilando una selección de trabajos de investigación de autores de diferentes países que permiten abordar y dar respuesta a problemas concretos en el ámbito del Turismo de Salud y Bienestar y de los cuales se derivan importantes implicaciones empresariales. Algunos de ellos se han realizado en establecimientos en los que el elemento principal de sus tratamientos y servicios ofertados es el agua: agua minero medicinal (Centros Termales) y agua común (Spas).La selección de trabajos se efectuó en una primera ronda por el Comité Organizador y Científico del Congreso y posteriormente los trabajos fueron sometidos a un proceso de doble evaluación anónima, por
investigadores expertos en el área de estudio.
Por otro lado, el contenido de este monográfico constituyen una importante fuente de conocimiento tanto teórico como práctico, además de un instrumento de trabajo, consulta y reflexión, tanto para el ámbito académico internacional, como para las administraciones públicas, el sector turístico y la industria del turismo de salud y bienestar.
Como editores invitados de esta edición especial de la revista, queremos agradecer la oportunidad concedida por el Consejo Editorial para elaborar la presente edición y en especial al Editor Ejecutivo Nuno Alexandre Pereira Abranca por su apoyo y confianza.
María de la Cruz del Río Rama, Universidad de Vigo
José Álvarez García, Universidad de Extremadura
Editores Invitados
... The nature of the seasonal water market is examined using a theoretical model and empirical evidence from the Victorian market [10]. A static computable general equilibrium model of South Africa is adapted to compare new taxes on water demand by two industries, namely forestry, and irrigated field crops [11]. The integration of an economic trading model with a hydrologic water allocation model is discussed [12]. ...
Water markets even though not perfect and require a lot of effort to establish are considered as a robust tool to address water management issues around the world. However, the existing literature does not provide an optimal water resource management policy. To create a perfect water market, the government needs to identify the potential number of suppliers/ producers and consumers of water against various extraction/ supply/production rates of water, i.e., to identify a supply and a demand curve for number of suppliers/producers of water against each production rate in economy. This article presents a theory which is practically applicable for an optimal dynamical water resource management policy (JEL H20, H23, H27).
... In the second case it would be measured in marginal terms, so that the higher the tax rate, the greater the divergence between loss and revenue. This principle holds true in the case-study here analysed, where the higher the tariffs, the higher the losses, as has been reflected in other works such as Garcia and Reynaud (2004) and van Heerden et al. (2008). A limitation of our model is that it focuses on the agricultural sector (85% of demand), as water for industry and urban use is at a higher level of priority and it is not generally affected by drought protocols. ...
This paper explores the impacts of water pricing as a demand management policy, at a regional level (or basin-sector). To this aim, a hydro-economic model for the Guadalquivir River basin (southern Spain) is proposed here. This basin constitutes a perfect example of a Mediterranean basin subject to frequent and long drought periods, where challenges related to water scarcity are increasing, leading to social conflicts among water users. Moreover, this basin is characterised by a closure state meaning that all available water resources are already allocated among users. In this context, water pricing policy may act as an effective tool to reduce water demand by encouraging changes of behaviour in water users. In particular, those who perform irrigation practices in the agricultural sector. This paper focuses on the irrigation sector since it is the main water user in the basin (87%). Additionally, alternative water-availability scenarios have been used to test the effect of water pricing under drought conditions. The hydro-economic model presented here has been sectorized into four basin sectors with common characteristics (hydro and economic). This enables the analysis of alternative price scenarios in the agricultural sector, in terms of water used, crop patterns and gross margin. Results show that water pricing policy should consider the regional characteristics at the basin-sector scale to gain effectiveness and equity at the river basin scale. Moreover, it has been found that both water availability and the crop pattern at the basin-sector scale have an effect on the reduction of water used (and therefore in gross margin.
... Step one: enabling institutions. Defining the total resource pool available for consumptive use and hydrological factors of use; and evaluating Zarour and Isaac, 1993;Becker and Zeitouni, 1998;Bjornlund and McKay, 2000;Bate, 2002;Bjornlund, 2003;Vasquez, 2008;Grafton et al., 2011;Akram, 2013;Kirsch and Maxwell, 2015;Grafton et al., 2016;Prieto, 2016;Wheeler et al., 2017;Petterini, 2018 Water market performance Qualitative and quantitative McCarl et al., 1999;Neuman and Chapman, 1999;Mahan et al., 2002;Newlin et al., 2002;Zekri and Easter, 2005;Pujol et al., 2006;Bauer, 2010;Culp et al., 2014;Grafton and Horne, 2014;Wheeler, 2014;Wheeler et al., 2014;Bauer, 2015;Leonard et al., 2019 Privatisation and marketisation of the water sector Qualitative Glennon, 2004;Borzutzky and Madden, 2013;Glennon, 2015;Grafton et al., 2016 Water market policy evaluation Qualitative and quantitative Rosegrant et al., 1995;Brennan, 2006;van Heerden et al., 2008;Garrick and Aylward, 2012;Garrick et al., 2013;Jamshidi et al., 2016 Water demand and price analysis Quantitative Zarnikau, 1994;Saleth and Dinar, 2001;Ipe and Bhagwat, 2002;Yoskowitz, 2002;Garcia et al., 2005;Gulyani et al., 2005;Zilberman and Schoengold, 2005;Pullen and Colby, 2008;Wheeler et al., 2008a;Zuo et al., 2019: Schwabe et al., 2020 Farmers' willingness to pay for water or participate in water market Quantitative Saleth and Dinar, 2001;Ranjan and Shogren, 2006;Giannoccaro et al., 2015;Venkatachalam, 2015;Jaghdani and Brümmer, 2016;Wheeler et al., 2009Wheeler et al., , 2010 Human behaviour in water markets Quantitative (experimental) Lefebvre et al., 2012;Broadbent et al., 2014;Hansen et al., 2014;Nauges et al., 2016 Institutional arrangements and transaction costs Qualitative and quantitative Howitt, 1994;Shatanawi and Al-Jayousi, 1995;Nieuwoudt, 2000;Carey et al., 2002;Hadjigeorgalis and Lillywhite, 2004;Zhang et al., 2009;Zhao et al., 2013;Erfani et al., 2014;Breviglieri et al., 2018;Loch et al., 2018 Case studies: ...
... Several studies have used CGE models to examine a wide range of water related issues (e.g. Seung et al. 1998;Seung et al. 2000;Diao and Roe 2003;Gomez et al. 2004;Diao et al. 2005;Feng et al. 2007;Brouwer et al. 2008;Van Heerden et al. 2008). However, CGE analyses of water infrastructure are not that common and their scope is typically confined to national impacts of dam projects. ...
... Within the water policy literature, efficiency losses due to distortive tax systems have been considered in only a few papers. In this regard, the only studies worth mentioning are those by Garcia and Reynaud[27] and van Heerden et al.[28], which both focus on water pricing.J.A. G� omez-Lim� on et al. Water Resources and Economics 32 (2020) 100163 ...
Allocation trade is an instrument that has been widely used to recover water for the environment during periods of scarcity (droughts). This paper proposes a water bank operating within a monopsony-monopoly setting with the dual purpose of reallocating water among farmers and acquiring water for the environment during drought periods. The proposed water bank would be managed by a public agency seeking to maximize economic efficiency generated in purchases and sales of water for agriculture and the efficiency generated by the recovery of water allocations for the environment. An additional, innovative feature of the analysis performed is that it considers the inefficiencies in the economy as a whole caused by public spending on water allocation purchases, measured through the marginal cost of public funds. The potential performance of the proposed water bank is simulated by mathematical programming techniques, taking the Guadalquivir River Basin (Southern Spain) as an empirical case study. The results provide evidence that, in terms of economic efficiency, the proposed institutional arrangement outperforms the instruments currently in place to purchase water allocations.
... In G� omez et al. [9], a nest of agricultural water is composed of energy and groundwater, which is combined with a land-capital composite to create a land--capital-agricultural-water composite on the upper layer. In addition, numerous studies deal with irrigation water, such as van Heerden et al. [10]. For instance, the TERM-Water computable general equilibrium (CGE) model applied by Peterson et al. [11] introduces irrigation water at the top level of the nested CES structure, while the TERM-H2O model applied by Dixon et al. [12] introduces water resources at the bottom of the nested CES production structure. ...
This study integrates ecohydrological vegetation and multi-sector multi-region economic growth models to evaluate the impacts of drought on markets and value the economic value of water. The values of several parameters of the agricultural production function are identified by applying leaf area indices that are simulated by the ecohydrological model, AgriCLVDAS. The three-sector three-region closed-economy model with the agricultural production functions of both irrigable and rainfed farmland as well as the stochastic process of precipitation and availability of river water are formulated to analyze the water rent as well as GDP growth in Pakistan under drought stress. According to the characteristics of the closed-economy model, the crop price is increased during drought periods because of the price hike in water (i.e., an increase in the marginal productivity of water, which is double that in high-water periods in Pakistan). The study further presents a way of investigating water resource management policies by applying comparative dynamics.
... Several studies have used CGE models to examine a wide range of water related issues (e.g. Seung et al. 1998;Seung et al. 2000;Diao and Roe 2003;Gomez et al. 2004;Diao et al. 2005;Feng et al. 2007;Brouwer et al. 2008;Van Heerden et al. 2008). However, CGE analyses of water infrastructure are not that common and their scope is typically confined to national impacts of dam projects. ...
This is a chapter of a book entitled "The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Nile Basin: Implications for Transboundary Water Cooperation", which is edited by Zeray Yihdego, Alistair Rieu-Clarke, and Ana Elisa Cascão. It assess the transboundary economic impact t ofthe Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under different climate and hydrological conditions. More specifically, it quantifies the economic benefit the dam generates to the Eastern Nile countries Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.
... Several studies have used CGE models to examine a wide range of water related issues (e.g. Seung et al. 1998;Seung et al. 2000;Diao and Roe 2003;Gomez et al. 2004;Diao et al. 2005;Feng et al. 2007;Brouwer et al. 2008;Van Heerden et al. 2008). However, CGE analyses of water infrastructure are not that common and their scope is typically confined to national impacts of dam projects. ...
... CGE models have been widely used in recent years to address the impacts of climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ( [12][13][14][15][16][17]) and also to address the management of water resources ( [9,[18][19][20][21][22][23][24]). As these models consider the various linkages between economic sectors, they are particularly useful for the evaluation of water-pricing policies, due to the ability of these models to calculate both equilibrium prices and quantities [25]. ...
The benefits of technological improvement are uncertain. The timing of the introduction and take-up of new technologies is difficult to estimate. Technological improvements play a decisive role in water policy. In the context of water policy design, we evaluate the implications of uncertainty in the gradual process of enhancements to the efficiency of irrigation water use, for a better understanding of the extent to which these improvements could mitigate the output losses derived from water constraints. To accomplish this, we address simultaneous sensitivity analyses within a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze different uncertainty scenarios. Our results show that the date on which advanced technology becomes available and enters general use is quite significant. The greater and faster the improvements in irrigation technologies, the better.
... 3 These models are among the few global CGE models with water broken out. Incorporating water into a CGE framework has been more extensively explored in studies undertaken at the country and regional level ( Darwin et al. 1995;Decaluwe et al. 1999;Gómez et al. 2004;Peterson et al. 2005;van Heerden et al. 2008). Most of them still favor the multi-level CES structures. ...
In the decades to come, seawater desalination is expected to be an important source of potable water in water-stressed countries bordering oceans and seas, in particular in regions with fast population growth where further decline of natural freshwater availability is expected due to climate change. Israel, being part of the “thirsty Middle East region”, faces natural water scarcity that was exacerbated by the five-year drought started at 2013. This has led to an ever-growing reliance on alternative water sources, where seawater desalination has been the main source for addressing the shortages. Desalination plants currently provide about a quarter of the potable water supply with plans to expand the desalination capacity. In this chapter, I assess the economic value of seawater desalination which increases the water supply and diminishes the effects of natural freshwater shortages. The analysis employs the Israeli Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model—IGEM, which estimates the benefit of desalination gained by reducing water shortages that cause an economic loss with impact on the entire Israeli economy. IGEM assesses the impact of water shortages on key economic indicators, where the shortage values are equivalent to the amounts of desalinated seawater—current and planned. The different qualities characterizing the five water types, which account for constraints associated with crop salinity-tolerance and food-safety regulations, are reflected in the model by the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) rates between different irrigation water types. The results reveal that the value of desalinated seawater due to its role in diminishing potable water shortages is about $4 per m³—much higher than its direct cost.
... It constitutes of 37 industries and commodities, including 25 within the broader agriculture sector (see Roos et al., 2015). It also features theory and data linked to the demand and supply of taxable water in the economy, similar to that used in the UPGEM model (Blignaut et al., 2008)[4]. The detailed agricultural sector in the model allows for a deeper analysis of how industries and commodities are affected by a drought. ...
The purpose of this paper is to investigate how a drought which initially affects agricultural productivity can ultimately affect an entire economy. The study aims to assess the magnitude of the impact as well as highlight key issues that can inform the implementation of drought mitigation programmes.
Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents the literature on the economic impact of drought and uses a computable general equilibrium model where productivity shocks are applied to the agricultural industries following which the resulting impacts on the rest of the sectors of the economy are obtained.
Findings – The findings show that the key macroeconomic variables, namely, real GDP, industry output, employment, the trade balance and household consumption are negatively affected by the drought shock.
Practical implications – The results point to the fact that in the absence of drought mitigation mechanisms, the occurrence of even a short drought as modelled in this paper can impose substantial socioeconomic losses.
Originality/value – First, a general equilibrium framework which uses climate and economic data when evaluating the social-economic impacts of drought is used. Most studies employ partial equilibrium analysis in analysing drought impacts on specific sectors or crops within a limited geographical area. Others use global or multi-regional models which impose averages on the observed impacts. The current study provides valuable insights into the potential damage which droughts can impose on a single economy. This gives a basis for decision making to support drought mitigation policies and programmes.
... However, in addition to an already expected reduction in water use for irrigation due to the introduction of such a tax, studies that have used CGE models to assess the impacts of this type of water tax have very different results, depending on the tax scheme. When the tax is implemented without any measure of compensation to the households, the result seems to be a reduction of water consumption, accompanied by a reduction in welfare, agricultural commodity production and GDP (NUGENT & SARMA, 2002;HEERDEN, BLIGNAUT & HORRIDGE , 2008). However, when a compensation scheme is implemented together with a water use tax for agricultural purposes, such as a reduction of income, a production or a consumption tax, a double dividend can be reached. ...
This paper develops a CGE model to assess the economic and multidimensional poverty impacts of possible reductions in water availability for agriculture in Brazil. We simulated three scenarios involving exogenously restrictions of water availability for agricultural sectors by 10%, 20% and 30% thus yielding endogenous tariffs or willingness to pay (WTP) for water use in each of the agricultural sectors. Among the various results, the reduction in the total demand for raw water was greater than the reduction for agriculture production, with the former reaching 18,44% under a water restriction of 30%. As for total production, the greater reduction was 0.39% under a water restriction of 30%. Finally, regarding multidimensional poverty, national MPI variation was not statistically significant. Nevertheless, the distribution of impacts among the Federative Units varied significantly, with Amapá and Rondônia suffering increases above 15% , while São Paulo and Distrito Federal had increases of about 2%. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first CGE model that both incorporate endogenous demand for water as part of agricultural production an integrates the CGE model with a micro-simulation module to access the multidimensional poverty.
... However, in addition to an already expected reduction in water use for irrigation due to the introduction of such a tax, studies that have used CGE models to assess the impacts of this type of water tax have very different results, depending on the tax scheme. When the tax is implemented without any measure of compensation to the households, the result seems to be a reduction of water consumption, accompanied by a reduction in welfare, agricultural commodity production and GDP (NUGENT & SARMA, 2002;HEERDEN, BLIGNAUT & HORRIDGE , 2008). However, when a compensation scheme is implemented together with a water use tax for agricultural purposes, such as a reduction of income, a production or a consumption tax, a double dividend can be reached. ...
This paper develops a CGE model to assess the economic impact of possible reductions in water availability on agriculture. To build the model various methodological tools were required. Translog production functions for the agricultural sector and the Water & Sewer sector (WS) were all estimated based on the Brazilian 2006 Agricultural Census and the National Sanitation Information System (NSIS) respectively. The CGE model was calibrated using 2009 national input-output data and incorporating the estimated demand system and production functions parameters previously estimated. We simulated three scenarios involving exogenously restrictions of water availability for agricultural sectors by 10%, 20% and 30% thus yielding endogenous tariffs or willingness to pay (WTP) for water use in each of the agricultural sectors. The revenues of these rates remained under government domain in these three standard scenarios. In addition, two other scenarios were simulated with water restriction of 30%, but with the revenues from these tariffs passed on directly to the families or used to subsidize the WS sector. Among the various results, the reduction in the total demand for raw water was greater than the reduction for agriculture production, with the former reaching 18,44% under a water restriction of 30%. As for total production, the greater reduction was 0.39% under a water restriction of 30%. Tariffs on water use obtained endogenously were much higher than those currently leveled in some regions in Brazil. Conversely to what is presented here, the model can simulate various exogenously raw water tariffs for the two sectors (agricultural and WS) and measure the resulting economic impacts. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first CGE model developed for Brazil that both actually incorporate endogenous demand for water as part of agricultural production and does so by using econometric estimates of the parameters of that demand.
... Todavia, além de uma já esperada redução no uso da água para irrigação por conta da introdução desse imposto, os artigos que usam MEGCs para avaliar os impactos deste tipo de imposto sobre água apresentam resultados muito distintos, a depender do esquema de taxação. Quando o imposto é implementado sem qualquer medida de compensação o resultado parece ser uma redução do consumo da água, acompanhada por uma redução do bemestar, da produção de commodities agrícolas e do PIB (NUGENT & SARMA, 2002;HEERDEN, BLIGNAUT & HORRIDGE, 2008). No entanto, quando um esquema de compensação é implementado paralelamente ao imposto sobre o uso da água para fins agrícolas, como redução do imposto sobre a renda, produção ou consumo, pode-se chegar a um duplo dividendo, ou seja, uma redução no consumo da água acompanhado de aumento do PIB, conforme mostram Kilimani, Heerden & Bohlman (2015) para Uganda, ou até mesmo um triplo dividendo, que inclui uma redução da pobreza (medida pela renda), conforme mostram Letsoalo et al (2007) para a África do Sul. ...
Este trabalho desenvolve um modelo de EGC para avaliar os impactos econômicos de possíveis reduções na disponibilidade de água na agricultura. Para construir o modelo, foram necessárias várias ferramentas metodológicas. As funções de produção translog para o setor agrícola e o setor de Água e Esgoto (AE) foram todas estimadas com base no Censo Agropecuário de 2006 e no Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento (SNIS), respectivamente. O MEGC foi calibrado usando dados nacionais de insumo-produto de 2009 e incorporando os parâmetros estimados do sistema de demanda e funções de produção. Simulamos três cenários envolvendo restrições exógenas de disponibilidade de água para setores agrícolas de 10%, 20% e 30%, gerando assim tarifas endógenas ou disposição para pagar (DAP) pelo uso da água em cada um dos setores agrícolas. As receitas dessas taxas permaneceram sob domínio do governo nesses três cenários-padrão. Além disso, dois outros cenários foram simulados com restrição hídrica de 30%, mas com as receitas dessas tarifas repassadas diretamente às famílias ou na forma de uma subsídio para o setor AE. Entre os vários resultados, a redução na demanda total por água bruta (água azul) foi maior que a redução na produção agrícola, chegando a 18,44%. Quanto à produção total, a maior redução foi de 0,39%. Sobre as tarifas de uso de água obtidas endogenamente, elas foram muito superiores às praticadas atualmente em algumas regiões do Brasil. Inversamente ao que é apresentado aqui, o modelo pode simular várias tarifas exógenas de água bruta para os dois setores (agrícola e AE) e medir os impactos econômicos resultantes. Pelo que sabemos, este é o primeiro modelo EGC desenvolvido para o Brasil que realmente incorpora a demanda endógena de água na produção agrícola e faz isso usando estimativas econométricas dos parâmetros dessa demanda.
... Water demand price elasticity, W,i , is reported in many empirical studies. For example, van Heerden et al. (2008) provide water demand elasticities for various sectors in a CGE model of South Africa. For the agricultural sector, in various countries, Bernardo et al. (1987); Booker and Young (1994); Moore and Hedges (1963); Nieswiadomy (1985); Scheierling et al. (2004) among many find find values ranging from -0.14 to -1. ...
This paper uses the water allocation economy in Israel as a proxy for imputing the value of agricultural amenities. A general equilibrium model is developed, and incorporates agricultural amenities as byproducts of agricultural production, water trade channels, and multiple water types. The premise is that until a decade ago, water policy in Israel was interlinked with agricultural land-use policy. Integrating a Monte-Carlo analysis, the model searches for a baseline minimum value of agricultural amenity that makes household, in the counterfactual scenario, indifferent between the administrative and market mechanisms. The minimum imputed value is around 109% agricultural output. The intuition is that the gains in economic welfare, from improved water use efficiency, are offset by the losses in social welfare due to a reduction in available agricultural amenities.
... Van Heerden et al. (2008), por exemplo, utilizaram um modelo estático de equilíbrio geral computável para comparar taxas sobre a demanda de água em dois setores, silvicultura e culturas irrigadas, na África do Sul. Berritella et al. (2007) investigaram o papel da água como fator de produção e a sua escassez no contexto do comércio internacional usando um modelo global. ...
O problema da escassez de água no Brasil tem se intensificado nos últimos anos. Não diferente está a situação da região metropolitana de Belo Horizonte (RMBH) que presenciou a mais severa escassez hídrica de sua história em 2015. Este estudo estima o impacto econômico de restrições na oferta de água utilizando um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável inter-regional para os municípios da RMBH.Busca-se compreender a importância da água como insumo produtivo e no consumo das famílias, e como a limitação de seu uso afeta as decisões econômicas dos setores e das famílias. Os resultados indicam que para um corte de 1% no consumo total de água na RMBH seria necessária uma elevação média de tarifas de 7,3%. O efeito total sobre o uso de água mostra-se bastante inelástico, uma vez que a redução de consumo é 1/7 da elevação dos preços.
... Furthermore, in some regions climate is complex due to the interaction between weather systems and steep topography (Ragettli et al., 2014). This means that developing hydrological models with high temporal and spatial resolutions (see Table 2), is often not possible, and the modeller is forced to spatially and temporally aggregate the available data more than would usually be considered appropriate in hydrological modelling (van Heerden et al., 2008;Davidson et al., 2010;Harou et al., 2009). ...
Joint research between economists and hydrologists increasingly contributes to optimising the economic value gained from water, while safeguarding its social and environmental values. The application of hydro-economic analysis to mining regions, however, is limited. This paper examines why this is the case and how to confront it. The paper focuses on identifying and describing features of large-scale mines and mine regions that are challenging to analyse such as: magnitude of capital involved, timescale and remoteness of projects, inherent environmental risks, and strong negative perceptions about mining's impacts on water. These characteristics may limit the applicability of established hydro-economic concepts and methods, thus risk-based metrics are discussed as complementary tools. We also contend that further research and development in water-related ecosystem services should be a priority, in order to better quantify trade-offs between the economic benefits of water use by mining and competing users, including environmental flows. Case studies of mining regions in Chile, Madagascar and Sweden are summarised to illustrate some of the issues raised. While data limitations are an obstacle, new and extended case studies are required to explore how the challenges may be addressed.
... Whilst the distinct modelling of water in CGE modelling has been done extensively at national or riverbasin levels (Dixon et al. 2011;van Heerden et al. 2008;Luckmann et al. 2014;Strzepek et al. 2008;Hassan et al. 2008;Letsoalo et al. 2007), for global scale analyses this has materialised in only a few instances and only for crop production -GTAP-W (Calzadilla et al. 2011a), GTAP-BIO-W (Taheripour et al. 2013). The difficulty of representing freshwater as a distinct factor of production at a global level stems from the heterogeneity or even the absence of water valuation across world regions. ...
... A C C E P T E D ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT 14 4. Discussion ...
The article explores the implications of income and population growth over crop output and the consequent changes in freshwater requirements for irrigation. We use three alternative patterns of global socio-economic development (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5) in conjunction with expected technological change coming from inherent yield improvements. Compared to other projections of blue water uses in crop production, the research provides a new perspective by using a multi-regional macro-economic approach. Freshwater requirements are calculated using a global Computable General Equilibrium framework with the induced pressure over renewable freshwater resources measured through the Irrigation Withdrawals to Availability (IWA) indicator. The RESCU-Water model employed distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated crop production. The model database also introduces an improved accounting method to derive the value of irrigation freshwater as a separate factor of production. The results show a positive relationship between socio-economic development and irrigation water use in most areas. Water-challenged regions continue to increase the pressure they exert over their renewable freshwater resources. Higher growth scenarios (SSP1 and SSP5) exacerbate these trends, leading to a more pronounced expansion of global blue water withdrawals. The obtained growth in freshwater requirements hints at continued unsustainable withdrawals in many regions and provides further evidence to support the SDG target 6.4 referring to the need for improved water-use efficiency.
... Such analyses allow for enhanced work on virtual water flows and dynamics, particularly with regard to their responses to changes in water supply conditions and trade policies (Berritella et al. 2007). CGE models also very relevant for analyzing the economywide impacts of infrastructural development (Strzepek et al. 2008), technology improvements (Kaliba et al. 2007), or water pricing or institutional reform (Diao and Roe 2000;Van Heerden et al. 2008;Hassan and Thurlow 2011). ...
Increasing demand for water coupled with reduced water availability in many regions of the world is leading to growing water scarcity and calls for implementation of a range of technological, institutional, and economic solutions.Water-economy models (WEMs), which integrate the complex interrelationships between hydrologic and economic systems, are effective tools for analyzing these issues and for providing appropriate solutions across varied spatial and temporal scales. These models can be powerful tools for examining potential future changes in water resources systems, including the effects of climate change, socioeconomic changes, and infrastructural and policy responses to water resource management challenges. In this paper, the WEM models used to answer water economy questions are classified into two general categories on the basis of their structure: network-based (simulation or optimization) hydroeconomic models, and economywide (inputoutput or computable general equilibrium) models. This paper highlights the primary differences in the applications and interpretations obtained using these approaches, analyzes the distribution of questions that differentWEMs have been used to answer, and discusses previous work and efforts to integrate across model types. Findings suggest that additional efforts are needed to more realistically account for the range and complexity of linking water systems and society, particularly regarding ecology and water quality, and the food and energy sectors. Additionally, the broader economic impacts of water-related processes, for example those related to interregional trade dynamics, the distribution of income, and migration, should be investigated further. In effect, because of the inherent complexity in the economic dynamics underlying many water systems, such tools can challenge intuition and provide critical insights that are relevant to more effective management of transboundary water resources and related sectors.
... The country's arid climate, combined with the predominance of shallow soils with limited irrigation potential, and relatively high population of rural subsistence farmers, places much of the country at risk of land degradation. Agriculture contributes to about 10% of employment and only about 13% of the country can be used for crop production due to aridity (van Heerden et al., 2008). There are 320 dams in South Africa, with about 50% of total water consumed going to irrigating crops ( Scholes and Biggs, 2004). ...
Land degradation response actions need motivated stakeholders and investments to improve land management. In this study we present methods to prioritise locations for degradation mitigation investments based on stakeholder preferences for ecosystem services. We combine participatory and spatial modelling approaches and apply these for Zambia, South Africa, and Tanzania to: i) prioritise ecosystem services in each country; ii) to map the supply of these ecosystem services in each country, and; iii) prioritise areas important for investment for the continuous delivery of these ecosystem services based on their vulnerability to land degradation. We interviewed 31 stakeholders from governmental and non-governmental organizations to select the most important ecosystem services per county. Stakeholders were also asked to indicate on national maps the hotspots of these ecosystem services and locations with a high degradation risk. We then assessed the supply of the stakeholder-selected ecosystem services and land degradation risk using GIS-based spatial models. We found that for each country the spatial extent and magnitude of ecosystem services supply and land degradation based on GIS data coincides with stakeholder knowledge in some locations. In the context of supporting national level policy to achieve land degradation neutrality as proposed by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification we argue that the correct representation, the level of acceptance, and use of modelled outputs to support decisions will be greater when model outputs are corroborated by stake-holder knowledge. Ecosystem services that are identified as " important " by diverse stakeholder groups have a broader level of awareness and could therefore drive motivations, commitments, and actions towards improved land management, contributing to land degradation neutrality.
This chapter examines the consequences of a 25% increase in raw water tariffs for irrigation in Tunisia using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This model is intended as a methodological tool to simulate the socio-economic impact of the water management policies adopted by Tunisia, in particular the tariff policy. This approach aims to address the challenges of climate change that Tunisia, like many other countries, is facing, as well as the ever-increasing demand for water. The CGE model that the authors have developed has an essential feature in the specification of the agricultural production technology. The findings show reduction in the availability of irrigation water, which is diverted to non-agricultural uses. However, the demand for recycled wastewater is increasing significantly, highlighting its crucial future potential, especially with the planned adoption of tertiary treatment technology. The findings extend to other sectors of the Tunisian economy, particularly the agro-food industry, which is similarly affected by the strong correlation with the agricultural sector.
Water plays a central role in several socioeconomic and environmental nexuses. Faced with various anthropogenic pressures that act as water scarcity drivers and knowing that the unavailability of water can be a limiting factor for economic development, there is an urgent need for the design and evaluation of economic instruments that help in the management of water resources. This article presents a proposal and assessment for a Pigouvian water charge instrument. The instrument suggests imposing a charge based on the amount of water consumed, targeting the agriculture, livestock, forest extraction, and aquaculture sectors. The revenue generated from this charge could be utilized to fund reforestation initiatives and support government expenditures, thereby creating both environmental and economic advantages. Based on a calibrated static computable general equilibrium economic model for the Brazilian Mantiqueira region, it was possible to estimate that a water charge policy at a rate of R 0.026/m ³ ) could lead to an increase in the Brazilian GDP in the benchmark year by US$ 10.7 million. Economic benefits could also be verified at the regional level, especially in those areas where there are water‐intensive economic activities. On the environmental side, the water charge could incentivize actions capable of recovering approximately 80 km ² of natural areas.
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the macroeconomic impacts of water scarcity and water (in)security in South Africa. The CGE model which includes a detailed representation of water resources (surface water, groundwater, wastewater, and seawater) has been calibrated with an updated social accounting matrix enabling to conduct policy simulations up to 2030. With the 17% expected increase of water scarcity (population growth, climate change, and poor management of water resources), the CGE model predicts a decrease of South African GDP by −0.44% in 2030. The long-term impact of water scarcity varies from one sector to another, the most negatively impacted sectors being those related to water. Due to water scarcity, unemployment will increase in the short term by 0.76%. In the long term (2030), unemployment is however expected to recover its baseline level. The increase in water scarcity is also predicted to have a negative impact on household welfare, household consumption being reduced by −0.47% in 2030. A particular concern for policy-makers might be that low-income households are expected to be more impacted by water scarcity than high-income households. Some policies may mitigate the negative impacts of water scarcity, the most promising ones being to promote water saving and to decrease non-revenue water.
This paper explores the impacts of water pricing as a demand management policy, at a regional level (or basin-sector). To this aim, a hydro-economic model for the Guadalquivir River basin (southern Spain) is proposed here. This basin constitutes a perfect example of a Mediterranean basin subject to frequent and long drought periods, where challenges related to water scarcity are increasing, leading to social conflicts among water users. Moreover, this basin is characterised by a closure state meaning that all available water resources are already allocated among users. In this context, water pricing policy may act as an effective tool to reduce water demand by encouraging changes of behaviour in water users. In particular, those who perform irrigation practices in the agricultural sector. This paper focuses on the irrigation sector since it is the main water user in the basin (87%). Additionally, alternative water-availability scenarios have been used to test the effect of water pricing under drought conditions. The hydro-economic model presented here has been sectorized into four basin sectors with common characteristics (hydro and economic). This enables the analysis of alternative price scenarios in the agricultural sector, in terms of water used, crop patterns and gross margin. Results show that water pricing policy should consider the regional characteristics at the basin-sector scale to gain effectiveness and equity at the river basin scale. Moreover, it has been found that both water availability and the crop pattern at the basin-sector scale have an effect on the reduction of water used (and therefore in gross margin.
As the increasingly scarce resources of production factors, water and land resources have a global and strategic impact on national economic growth. Under the circumstance of increasingly tight water resource constraints, it is an urgent scientific problem to analyze the damping effect of water resources on grain production, and to achieve a “win-win situation” that ensures the stable growth of grain production capacity and the cost saving and efficiency enhancement of water resources. From the perspective of contradictions between supply and demand of water and land resources in Haihe basin, the paper builds the damping coefficient function of water and land resources on economic development basing on the data from 2001 to 2017. The results show that the damping coefficients of the water and land resources in Haihe basin from 2001 to 2017 range from negative 15.79%–36.50%. The water and land resources have become more and more restrictive to the economy. The damping coefficients of water and land resources in Haihe basin fluctuated from 0.0437 in 2001 to 0.0359 in 2011, and the economic growth rate also changed from 14.2425% in 2001 to 18.68% in 2011. This is because of the advancement of science and technology that encourages people to make full use of the substitution effect of resources, to reduce resource consumption to mitigate the constraints brought by water and land resources, and ensure the steady growth of the economy. In 2012, the damping coefficient decreased to the minimum at negative 0.0733, and it's well known that the substitution effect of resource factor has a certain limit, so that technological innovation is needed to balance the constraints caused by resources in this case.
Water, food and energy are three interconnected fundamental needs. Climate change potentially hinders the security of all of them, acting as a threat multiplier. Accordingly, this paper addresses the consequences of two climate scenarios in the 2030 horizon: specifically, it addresses the highest and lowest representative concentration pathway (RCP), 8.5 and 2.6; the relative changes in freshwater availability; and their sectorial and macroeconomic impacts. Furthermore, it addresses the importance of developing the simulations through a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE), which, uncommonly, explicitly considers the water endowment as a factor for both the irrigated agriculture and the energy sector. The results highlight that both the activation of the water–energy link and climate-induced freshwater availability changes have significant impacts on the simulation outcomes, even in the short-term horizon of 2030. Moreover, it reveals that water scarcity issues are expected to arise in the Middle East, leading to significant food security issues, as well as to significant consequences for the behaviour of the energy sector. Indeed, while we would expect that dependency on a scarce resource would lead to security issues, the Middle East energy sector appears to not straightforwardly behave as a resource attractor, likely due to its economic relevance both within the region and internationally.
Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is increasingly important due to water scarcity, population growth, climate change, and deterioration of resource quality. IWRM requires analytical tools such as automated models and interactive systems, which may be difficult to implement, particularly in developing countries. This paper reviews existing basin-level models and decision support systems (DSSs) for public water allocation, provides application examples, and systematically reviews the literature on concepts arising from the definition of IWRM. Two environmental concepts considered in this review, water quantity-quality management and sustainability , were the most frequently used in revised allocation models, most of these in spatial decision support systems (SDSS). These automated systems presented, in most cases, three advantages: a well-developed friendly interface enabling application of more than one model, allowance for different decision criteria and restrictions together with the analysis of scenarios/sensitivity, and tight coupling and connection to spatial databases. This greatly facilitates and enhances their use by decision makers and stakeholders, favoring an environmentally sustainable management of water resources. Findings showed few models that combined the requirement of sustainable management maximizing economic well-being together with equality. Overall, most of the tools developed are prescriptive (optimiza-tion), nonlinear and deterministic models, which were not available through any DSS. In addition, allocation modeling that considers aspects of quantity-quality combined with economic optimization was almost entirely developed in the last decade of the analyzed period. Implementation of IWRM needs a process with participation of all the stakeholders involved, supported by hydrological and economic models integrated and available through DSS.
The paper analyses how the Water-Energy-Food Nexus is treated in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, discussing their design, importance and possible ways of improvement. The analysis of their structure is critical for evaluating their potential efficiency in understanding the Nexus, which will be particularly effective for gauging the importance of the topic, the reciprocal dependency of its elements and the expected macroeconomic, demographic and climatic pressures that will act on its components. General equilibrium models can be useful devices to this end, as they are specifically built to track interdependencies and transmission effects across sectors and countries. Nevertheless, the review showed that most CGEs in the literature struggle to represent the competing water uses across sectors and, in particular, those concerning the energy sector. Therefore, it highlights the need to resolve this issue as a necessary step toward improving future research.
We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the macroeconomic impacts of water scarcity and water (in)security in South Africa. The water-CGE model which includes a detailed representation of water flows (surface water, groundwater, wastewater, and seawater) has been calibrated with an updated social accounting matrix enabling to conduct policy simulations up to 2030. We show that water scarcity will have an impact on the South African economy. With an increase of water scarcity by 17%, the CGE model predicts a decrease of South African GDP by -0.34% in 2030. The long-term impact of water scarcity varies from one sector to another, with the most negatively impacted sectors being those related to water (loss of GDP up to -2.48%). Due to the increase of water scarcity, the unemployment rate is expected to be 0.1% higher in 2020 which represents a loss of 18,000 jobs compared to the baseline year (2013). The 17% increase in water scarcity is also expected to have a negative impact on household welfare: by 2030, household consumption may decrease by -0.26%. Some policies can mitigate the negative impacts of water scarcity, the most promising one being to promote water saving.
This paper presents a detailed technical description of features added to the standard ORANI model to construct a CGE for Sri Lanka, namely, ORANI- SL. The model distinguishes between rain-fed and irrigated agricultural land and introduces water as a production factor. In addition, the new production structure offers the option of substitution between rain-fed and irrigated agricultural lands. The paper also describes the model's database and the steps of the data transformation process from the latest available input-output table of Sri Lanka to the ORANI-SL database, which is necessary for model simulation. The new model could be used to analyse the economy wide impacts of climate change in Sri Lanka, study the economic implications of increased irrigation capacity or sustainable water usage in Sri Lanka, and evaluate the efficacy of various other adaptive strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change. In addition this model can be easily adapted to another country.
Analyzing river basins as coupled human and hydrological systems is important to advance our understanding of hydrological processes, and to provide insights into policy design for water resources management. However, assessing spatially heterogeneous and temporally dynamic characteristics of human-hydrological interactions remains a challenge, and relevant research has been limited by the lack of computationally tractable models that can integrate water management policies, human activities, and hydrological conditions with sufficient temporal and spatial details. In this study, we propose a modeling framework that tightly couples (1) an agent-based model for farmers’ decision-making on water use influenced by collective water management policies, and (2) a distributed hydrological model for simulating integrated groundwater-surface water processes with high spatial and temporal resolutions. We apply the modeling framework to the Heihe River Basin, a large semi-arid river basin with intensive agriculture in China. Through various policy portfolio analyses, the model has identified several unique spatial-temporal characteristics of human-hydrological interactions. These include (1) nonlinear relationships between water policies, farmers’ decisions on water use, and hydrological conditions, (2) spatially heterogeneous impacts of water policies on farmers’ conjunctive groundwater and surface water use, and (3) location-dependent temporal patterns regarding water policies’ influences on hydrological processes. It is found that regional hydrogeological conditions (e.g., depth to water table, distance to rivers) are key factors to influence human-hydrological interactions. The modeling results could advance our understanding of the role of human activities in hydrological cycles, and yield insights into the design of location-based policies for river basin management.
This paper presents a framework to systematically compare the contributions to uncertainty in hydro-economic simulated outputs from the uncertainty surrounding input parameters employed by the hydrologic and economic models independently. We consider an illustrative case study example. An integrated modeling framework is adopted, involving a surface-water/groundwater nitrate-transport model, and a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium model. Environmental uncertainty contributions are determined by optimizing nitrate-loading under ecologically-relevant constraint uncertainty at varying risk stances—the results of which are mapped to economic outputs. Economic uncertainty contributions are quantified through Monte-Carlo sampling of variables associated with social-accounting matrices and substitution and transformation elasticities. Results indicate that, at the study-area scale, the environmental contribution to Gross-Regional Product uncertainty is generally larger compared to that of economic uncertainty. Nevertheless, the reliability of hydro-economic outputs is shown to be highly dependent on environmental and economic sources of uncertainty. On the basis of our case study findings, we recommend that commensurate effort be focused toward enhanced assimilation of observation data in both types of models to reduce their respective uncertainties.
We survey the emerging research area of sustainability economics through a quantitative full-text analysis of peer-reviewed journal publications from 1987 to 2013. To identify relevant contributions, we draw on existing definitions of sustainability economics for a keyword-based identification strategy: a combined focus on (a) the human-nature relationship, (b) the long-term uncertain future, (c) normative orientation towards sustainability, and (d) economic analysis. Our analysis of a random subsample of 343 relevant papers reveals that (i) sustainability economics is a rapidly developing research area; (ii) while theoretical contributions shaped the area in earlier years, applied work now constitutes the largest share of contributions; (iii) the research landscape can be clustered into eleven research clusters. These range from participatory governance of social-ecological systems associated with the work of Elinor Ostrom to questions of intertemporal allocation and distribution applied to climate economics associated with the work of William Nordhaus; (iv) the research area is broad in scope and heterogeneous, and there is relatively little interaction between important clusters; (v) relevant contributions are published in more than 100 journals. Ten journals publish half of all contributions, led by Ecological Economics, and 40% appear in non-economics journals, underscoring the importance of interdisciplinary dialogue.
/////////****** https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:5n-36093 ******////////
The Aral Sea basin (ASB) of Central Asia is facing a water crisis due to the increasing demand for water resources. The shrinkage of the Aral Sea, which is primarily caused by the expansion of irrigated agriculture along the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, is a main contributor to the water-related challenges in the region. In light of this, improving the efficiency of the internal water resources utilization in the ASB is advisable. Three main options have been explored in the study to address water mismanagement in the ASB, which include economic restructuring, market-based water allocation institutions, and irrigation technology and hydro-infrastructural system improvements. The first option involves prioritizing economic activities that have high growth impacts and low water consumption requirements. The second option, market-based water allocation, aims to reallocate water among users to gain the highest basin-wide benefits. The third option focuses on enhancing the efficiency of irrigation systems and constructing water reservoirs to regulate the river flow. The study employs various methods, such as environmental input-output assessment and (aggregated and disaggregated) hydro-economic models, to analyze the potential impacts of these options on water uses and economic performance. The results suggest that shifting from water-intensive sectors, such as agriculture, to less water-demanding activities can significantly reduce water demand. Market-based water allocation systems can generate economic benefits, particularly in conditions of water scarcity. Additionally, cooperation is key prerequisite for enhancing basin-wide benefits from irrigation efficiency improvements and water reservoir developments. However, it is essential to carefully evaluate the potential risks and costs associated with the reservoir constructions, such as flooding, geopolitical tensions and non-cooperative water release regimes. Overall, effective collaboration among riparian countries, along with institutional reforms and technological advancements, is crucial to address the water crisis in the ASB.
This chapter provides background information useful for a quantitative global assessment of the impact of water scarcity
on growth using a Computable General Equilibrium
(CGE
) model. It provides a detailed review of the literature on water, water scarcity
, sectoral activity and economic growth
, and identifies the possibilities and bottlenecks in incorporating water use into a CGE
framework. It covers water use in agriculture, energy production, households, industry and services. Finally, it discusses water supply and allocation. There are ample opportunities for conserving water across its various uses. Economic incentives would hasten water efficiency
gains.KeywordsWater useWater scarcityEconomic growthCGE modeling
مدیریت سازگار و مشارکتی منابع آب، مهمترین راهکار برای حفظ این منبع محدود در شرایط بحرانی حاضر میباشد. برقراری تعادل بین عرضه و تقاضای آب از طریق سازوکار قیمت، باعث افزایش بهرهوری مصرف آب میگردد و بهترین روش برای قیمتگذاری، تنظیم قیمت بوسیله مصرفکننده در ساختار بازار میباشد.
در این مطالعه با بررسی بازارهای آب جهان و ایران، شرایط لازم برای تشکیل بازار، اقدامات انجام شده و نتایج حاصل و همچنین پیامدهای تشکیل بازار مورد مطالعه قرار گرفته است. هدف اصلی تحقیق حاضر تحلیل و شناخت بازار آب در منطقه مورد بررسی و ارائه راهکارهایی برای بهبود بازار آب موجود میباشد. در این راستا بازار محلی آب موجود در شهرستان اسکو مورد مطالعه قرار گرفته است. با بررسی بازارهای آب در سطح ملی و بینالمللی، بازار آب اسکو با بازارهای مطالعه شده مقایسه شده است. بعد از شناسایی وجود بازار در منطقه، به تحلیل و ارزیابی بهرهبرداران بهعنوان رکن اصلی بازار، نحوه انجام مبادلات، شیوه قیمتگذاری و نحوه اطلاعرسانی پرداخته شده است. بر اساس تجربیات مطالعه شده، شرایط لازم برای برقراری بازارهای آب و ویژگیهای بازارهای رقابتی عنوان شده است و این شرایط در بازار اسکو مورد مطالعه قرار گرفته است.
عمده منبع تأمین آب کشاورزی در منطقه اسکو منابع آب زیرزمینی میباشد و نحوه تخصیص و صدور مجوز بهرهبرداری از چاههای زیرزمینی بر اساس مالکیت زمین و الگوی کشت میباشد. لذا پروانه بهرهبرداری از چاه به همراه سند مالکیت زمین صادر میشود و کشاورزان در صورت تمایل، بصورت غیر رسمی به مبادله آب میپردازند. بر طبق نتایج این تحقیق، مبادلات آب در شهرستان اسکو به سه صورت موقت، سالانه و دائمی انجام میشوند، ولی اکثر مبادلات صورت گرفته، بصورت موقت میباشند. در سال مورد مطالعه (1393-1392)، قیمت میانگین هر مترمکعب آب در مبادلات موقت در حدود 1825ریال بوده است.
بر اساس نتایج این تحقیق جهت تقویت، ساماندهی و گسترش بازار آب موجود در منطقه اسکو مهمترین اقدامات لازم عبارتند از: به رسمیت شناختن تجارت آب و رفع محدودیتهای قانونی موجود در این زمینه، تعریف قانونی حقآبه ها، سرمایهگذاری در زیرساختهای لازم برای ثبت معاملات، تدوین سازوکارهایی برای آگاهی کامل مشارکتکنندگان در بازار و ایجاد زیرساختهای مناسب انتقال آب برای تسهیل مبادلات آبی در این منطقه.
A cobrança pelo uso da água bruta no Brasil foi introduzida pela Lei nº 9.433,
de 08 de janeiro de 1997, como um instrumento econômico de gestão dos
recursos hídricos brasileiros, com o intuito de induzir os agentes usuários ao
uso racional da água, reconhecer o valor econômico da água e obter recursos
financeiros. A Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio São Francisco implementou o seu
sistema de cobrança pelo uso da água em julho de 2010, não passando por
nenhuma modificação ou melhoria desde então. Nesta pesquisa, apresentase
uma análise desse sistema de cobrança, identificando os aspectos
passíveis de aperfeiçoamento e a simulando as modificações propostas para
a Região Hidrográfica do Submédio São Francisco. Os resultados indicaram
que é necessário rever os valores de cobrança adotados atualmente.
Os Preços Públicos Unitários (PPUs) apresentam defasagem acumulada
em torno de 50%, mediante as taxas inflacionárias brasileiras. Os aspectos
quantitativo, qualitativo e de proteção a situações emergenciais, atualmente
existentes na metodologia de cobrança, não se mostram suficientes para
auxiliar na sustentabilidade hídrica da bacia. Entre as alterações sugeridas
para o sistema de cobrança estão a consideração de situações de escassez
hídrica, de prioridade no uso, de tratamento dos efluentes e de tecnologia
de irrigação. Tais alterações revelam-se eficazes ao reduzir/aumentar
consideravelmente os valores a serem pagos pelos usuários, podendo,
assim, induzir ações preventivas e de redução dos desperdícios.
In previous chapters we have described applied general equilibrium analysis in practical terms. In this chapter we begin by presenting a succinct explanation of the history of general equilibrium and the theoretical underpinnings of this type of analysis and models. We then move on to report on actual empirical applications to give the reader a flavor of the potential of AGE modeling.
South Africa faces escalating freshwater problems and will experience prolonged water deficits within the next 25 to 30 years if current patterns of water use continue unchanged. The level of conventional water resources utilization in the country is very high and new approaches are necessary to stretch the limited water supplies available to meet projected demands for water. Significant research into new technologies and sources of supply has been carried out in South Africa and abroad during the past few decades. This has resulted in the development and evaluation of a number of innovative concepts and methodologies, as well as novel adaptations to existing approaches. These concepts and methodologies include: integration of surface water transfers into a national water grid, transfers of untapped surface water resources from countries located to the north of South Africa, exploitation of deep groundwater and the use of aquifers for storage of surplus water, atmospheric water (fog and cloud) harvesting, iceberg water utilization, desalination and direct use of sea water. Some of these options are still theoretical and unproven, while others have reached different stages of practical testing and implementation. Information on these alternatives for water supply is widely scattered over many different sources. This paper reviews the available information and examines some of these unconventional sources and options for future water supply in terms of their technical aspects, potential applications, likely impacts, approximate costs, and regional relevance in terms of alleviating predicted water shortages.
South Africa faces escalating freshwater problems and will experience prolonged water deficits within the next 25 to30 years if current patterns of water use continue unchanged. The level of conventional water resources utilization in the country is very high and new approaches are necessary to stretch the limited water supplies available to meet projected demands for water. Significant research into new technologies and sources of supply has been carried out in South Africa and abroad during the past few decades. This has resulted in the development and evaluation of a number of innovative concepts and methodologies, as well as novel adaptations to existing approaches. These concepts and methodologies include: integration of surface water transfers into a national water grid, transfers of untapped surface water resources from countries located to the north of South Africa, exploitation of deep groundwater and the use of aquifers for storage of surplus water, atmospheric water (fog and cloud) harvesting, iceberg water utilization, desalination and direct use of sea water. Some of these options are still theoretical and unproven, while others have reached different stages of practical testing and implementation. Information on these alternatives for water supply is widely scattered over many different sources. This paper reviews the available information and examines some of these unconventional sources and options for future water supply in terms of their technical aspects, potential applications, likely impacts, approximate costs, and regional relevance in terms of alleviating predicted water shortages.
Increasing competition for water across sectors increases the importance of the river basin as the appropriate unit of analysis to address the challenges facing water resources management; and modeling at this scale can provide essential information for policy makers in their resource allocation decisions. This paper introduces an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that accounts for the interactions between water allocation, farmer input choice, agricultural productivity, non-agricultural water demand, and resource degradation in order to estimate the social and economic gains from improvement in the allocation and efficiency of water use. The model is applied to the Maipo river basin in Chile. Economic benefits to water use are evaluated for different demand management instruments, including markets in tradable water rights, based on production and benefit functions with respect to water for the agricultural and urban-industrial sectors.
A CGE model of South Africa is used to find the potential for a double or triple dividend if the revenues raised from an energy-related environmental tax are recycled to households and industry through lowering existing taxes. Four environmental taxes and three revenue-recycling schemes are compared. The environmental taxes are (i) a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, (ii) a fuel tax, (iii) a tax on electricity use, and (iv) an energy tax. The four taxes are constructed such that they have a comparable effect on emissions. The revenue is recycled through either (i) a direct tax break on both labour and capital, (ii) an indirect tax break to all households, or (iii) a reduction in the price of food. A triple dividend is found Ð decreasing emissions, increasing GDP, and decreasing poverty Ð when any one of the environmental taxes is recycled through a reduction in food prices.
This paper focuses on the linkages between water and trade policies, using Morocco as a case. This country is typical of many in that policy protects its import competing agricultural and industrial sectors while water in irrigated agriculture is priced below its marginal value product. Changing water policy without correcting for these other distortions leads to a more inefficient allocation of water. On the other hand, reforming trade policy alone can make farmers growing crops protected pre-reform worse off. Using an intertemporal, applied general equilibrium model, we find that trade reform actually creates an opportunity to pursue water policy reform. Creating a water user-rights market post trade reform not only compensates for the decline in farmers’ profits caused by the trade reform, but also raises the efficiency of water allocation and hence benefits the economy as a whole.
The impacts of the widespread invasions by alien plants in South Africa are increasingly recognised. Most of the past concern has been about the impacts on conservation areas, other areas of natural vegetation and on agricultural productivity. The potential impact of invading alien woody plants on water resources was known to be serious but there has been no information available to evaluate the significance of these water losses across the whole country. This paper reports on the results of a preliminary survey aimed at obtaining an overview of the extent, impacts and implications of alien plant invasions at a national and regional level for South Africa and Lesotho. Data on the extent and location of the invaded areas were obtained from a variety of sources including detailed field mapping, mainly at a 1:250 000 scale with some at 1:50 000 and 1:10 000, and generalised information on species and densities. The density class of each species in each polygon was mapped and used to derive the condensed areas (the equivalent area with a canopy cover of 100%). Each of the invading species was classified as a tall shrub, medium tree or tall tree - based on growth form and likely water use - and its biomass was estimated from a function based on vegetation age. The incremental water use (i.e. the additional water use compared with the natural vegetation) was calculated using the following equation: Water use (mm) = 0.0238 x biomass (g/m (2)) which was derived from catchment studies. Alien plants, mainly trees and woody shrubs, have invaded an estimated 10.1 million ha of South Africa and Lesotho, an area larger than the province of KwaZulu-Natal. The equivalent condensed area is 1.7 million ha which is greater than the area of Gauteng Province. The Western Cape is the most heavily invaded at about a third of the total area, followed by Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and Northern Province. The catchments of the Berg and Breede Rivers are the most heavily invaded followed by the George-Tsitsikamma region, Port Elizabeth coastal region and the Drakensberg escarpment in Mpumalanga. The total incremental water use of invading alien plants is estimated at 3 300 million m(3); of water per year, equivalent to about 75% of the virgin MAR of the Vaal River system. About a third of the estimated total water use, by volume, is accounted for by alien invaders in the Western Cape, followed by KwaZulu-Natal (17%), the Eastern Cape (17%) and Mpumalanga (14%). The greatest reduction as a percentage of MAR was found in the arid Northern Cape (17%), followed by the Western Cape (15%) and Gauteng (10%). For primary catchments, the greatest percentage reductions were in the Namaqualand coast (catchment F, 91%) followed by the Eastern Cape Coast (P, 42%) and the south-western Cape (G, 31%). The extent and density of the invasions and thus the impact on water resources could increase significantly in the next 5 to 10 years, resulting in the loss of much, or possibly even all, of the available water in certain catchment areas. Alien plant control is expensive but it has been shown that control programmes are cost-effective compared with alternative water supply schemes. This preliminary assessment needs to be interpreted with caution because the results are based on a data set that contains some important uncertainties. The water-use estimates also involve some critical assumptions. Nevertheless, the scale of the invasions, the magnitudes of the impacts and the rapid expansion we are observing are such that a national control programme is essential if the country's water resources are to be protected.
The South African government is exploring ways to address water scarcity problems by introducing a water resource management charge on the quantity of water used in sectors such as irrigated agriculture, mining and forestry. It is expected that a more efficient water allocation, lower use and a positive impact on poverty can be achieved. This paper reports on the validity of these claims by applying a computable general equilibrium model to analyse the triple dividend of water consumption charges in South Africa: reduced water use, more rapid economic growth, and a more equal income distribution. It is shown that the appropriate, budget-neutral combination of water charges, particularly on irrigated agriculture and coal mining, and reduced indirect taxes, particularly on food, would yield triple dividends.
The implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) has increased policy and decision-maker demand for integrated hydro-economic data, information and indicators at the level of river basins. In order to meet this increasing demand, a new integrated hydro-economic accounting system has been developed, called National Accounting Matrix including Water Accounts for River Basins (NAMWARiB). NAMWARiB provides information about the interactions between the physical water system and the economy at national and river basin scale. The main objective of this paper is to present and discuss the use and usefulness of the newly developed river basin information system for the implementation of the European WFD based upon the currently available time series data.
Increasing competition for water across sectors increases the importance of the river basin as the appropriate unit of analysis to address the challenges facing water resources management; and modeling at this scale can provide essential information for policymakers in their resource allocation decisions. This paper introduces an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that accounts for the interactions between water allocation, farmer input choice, agricultural productivity, nonagricultural water demand, and resource degradation in order to estimate the social and economic gains from improvement in the allocation and efficiency of water use. The model is applied to the Maipo River Basin in Chile. Economic benefits to water use are evaluated for different demand management instruments, including markets in tradable water rights, based on production and benefit functions with respect to water for the agricultural and urban-industrial sectors.
Abstract A CGE model of South Africa is used to find the potential for a ‘double or triple dividend’, if the revenues raised from an energy related environmental tax are recycled into households and industry through lowering existing taxes. Four environmental taxes and three revenue-recycling schemes are compared. The environmental taxes are (i) a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, (ii) a fuel tax, (iii) a tax on electricity use, and (iv) an energy tax. The four taxes are constructed such that they have a comparable effect on emissions. The revenue is recycled through either (i) a direct tax break on both labour and capital, (ii) an indirect tax break to all households, or (iii) a reduction in the price of food. A triple dividend is found when any one of the environmental taxes is recycled through a reduction in food prices. PREM Working Paper:,05/02 Keywords:,CO2, Poverty, Double-dividend,CGE, Environmental tax
This study considers water use by Canadian manufacturing firms. The estimation of water demands is based on a detailed cross-sectional survey of establishment-level observations on water prices, quantities, and expenditures. Industrial water use is modeled as having four components: intake, treatment prior to use, recirculation, and discharge. Average values for the estimated own-price elasticity for water intake range from -0.1534 to -0.5885. Water recirculation is found to be a substitute for both water intake and water discharge. This confirms that expanding the use of economic incentives (e.g., effluent fees) may be effective in encouraging firms to reduce their water use while increasing in-plant recirculation.
This paper focuses on policy interventions for improving irrigation water allocation decisions by including both macro and micro considerations in a unified analytical CGE framework. The approach is demonstrated, using the case of Morocco, by analyzing selected policy (top-down and bottom-up) interventions and external shocks that affect the water sector. Both direct and indirect effects of these interventions are identified. The top-down (macro-to-micro) links are of a trade reform type. The bottom-up (micro-to-macro) links pertain to changes in farm water assignments and the possibility of water trading. We find that water productivity is strongly influenced by these policies, with the general equilibrium (indirect) effects modifying and sometimes reversing the partial equilibrium (direct) effects. We also find that the impacts of the two reforms we assessed are different, with trade reform having an absolute impact of a higher magnitude than the water reform. Finally, we show that the sequence of introducing the policy reforms matters. We also demonstrate the usefulness of our model approach in the case of the Water Directive Framework and the Common Agricultural Policy, both applied in EU countries in an antagonistic manner.
Sustainable irrigation water management should simultaneously achieve two objectives: sustaining irrigated agriculture for food security and preserving the associated natural environment. A stable relationship should be maintained between these two objectives now and in the future, while potential conflicts between these objectives should be mitigated through appropriate irrigation practices. The Aral Sea region in Central Asia is such a region that is most famous for its conflict between sustaining irrigated agriculture and preserving the environment. The current status of irrigation water management in the Aral Sea region demonstrates the Aral Sea disaster as a prime example for unsustainable irrigation development. This paper presents an integrated modeling framework for sustainable irrigation management analysis and applies it to analyze irrigation water management in the Aral Sea region. Based on the modeling outputs, alternative futures of the irrigation practice in the region are explored and it is found that to maintain current irrigation practices will lead to worsening environmental and economic consequences. Investments in infrastructure improvements (about annualized US per ton as an economic incentive may help address environmental problems, while having only a small effect on irrigation profit.
Science real and relevant: 2nd CSIR Biennial Conference, CSIR International Convention Centre Pretoria, 17 & 18 November 2008 The paper discusses geographic reality; water availability and water security as well as the challenges and opportunities facing water resource managers and the importance of good governance
Water problems are typically studied at the level of the river catchment. About 70% of all water is used for agriculture, and agricultural products are traded internationally. A full understanding of water use is impossible without understanding the international market for food and related products, such as textiles. The water embedded in commodities is called virtual water. Based on a general equilibrium model, we offer a method for investigating the role of water resources and water scarcity in the context of international trade. We run five alternative scenarios, analyzing the effects of water scarcity due to reduced availability of groundwater. This can be a consequence of physical constraints, and of policies curbing water demand. Four scenarios are based on a "market solution", where water owners can capitalize their water rent or taxes are recycled. In the fifth "non-market" scenario, this is not the case; supply restrictions imply productivity losses. Restrictions in water supply would shift trade patterns of agriculture and virtual water. These shifts are larger if the restriction is larger, and if the use of water in production is more rigid. Welfare losses are substantially larger in the non-market situation. Water-constrained agricultural producers lose, but unconstrained agricultural produces gain; industry gains as well. As a result, there are regional winners and losers from water supply constraints. Because of the current distortions of agricultural markets, water supply constraints could improve allocative efficiency; this welfare gain may more than offset the welfare losses due to the resource constraint.
Environmental impacts of the forestry sector in South Africa with specific reference to water resources
- DBSA
DBSA, 2000. Environmental impacts of the forestry sector in South Africa with specific reference to water resources. CSIR Report: ENV-P-C 99016
Global Terrestrial Observing System: Regional Implementation Plan for Southern Africa
- R Scholes
Scholes, R., 2001. Global Terrestrial Observing System: Regional Implementation Plan for Southern Africa. GTOS-21.
Hydropolitics in the Developing World: A Southern African Perspective
- A R Turton
- R Henwood
Turton, A.R., Henwood, R. (Eds.) Hydropolitics in the Developing World: A Southern African Perspective. African Water Issues Research Unit (AWIRU) and International Water Management Institute (IWMI), 24 pp.
Water demand management and social adaptive capacity: A South African case study
- P J Ashton
- B Haasbroek
Ashton, P.J., Haasbroek, B., 2002. Water demand management and social adaptive capacity: A South African case study. In:
Unconventional water supply options in South Africa: possible solutions or intractable problems?
- V Smakhtin
- P J Ashton
- A Batchelor
- R Meyer
- J P Maree
- M Murray
- B Barta
- N Bauer
- D Terblanche
- J Olivier
Smakhtin, V., Ashton, P.J., Batchelor, A., Meyer, R., Maree, J.P., Murray, M., Barta, B., Bauer, N., Terblanche, D., Olivier, J., 2001. Unconventional water supply options in South Africa: possible solutions or intractable problems? Water International 26 (3), 314–334.
Estimation of the residential price elasticity of demand for water by means of a contingent valuation approach
- Veck
Veck, G.A., Bill, M.R., 2000. Estimation of the residential price elasticity of demand for water by means of a contingent valuation approach. Water Research Commission Report No: 790/1/00..
The dangerous spiral: near-future risks for water-related eco-conflicts
- Falkenmark
Falkenmark, M., 1994. The dangerous spiral: near-future risks for water-related eco-conflicts. Proceedings of the ICRC Symposium Water and War: Symposium on Water in Armed Conflicts, International Committee of the Red Cross, Montreux, Switzerland, 21–23 November. 16 pp.
Triple dividends of water consumption charges in South Africa Water Resources Research. 43, W05412. National Treasury A Framework for Considering Market-based Instruments to Support Environmental Fiscal Reform in South Africa. National Treasury Selling Forest Environmental Services
- A Letsoalo
- J Blignaut
- T Wet
- M Wit
- S Hess
- R S J Tol
- J H Van Heerden
Letsoalo, A., Blignaut, J., de Wet, T., de Wit, M., Hess, S., Tol, R.S.J., Van Heerden, J.H., 2007. Triple dividends of water consumption charges in South Africa. Water Resources Research. 43, W05412. National Treasury, 2006. A Framework for Considering Market-based Instruments to Support Environmental Fiscal Reform in South Africa. National Treasury, Pretoria. Pagiola, S., Bishop, J., Landell-Mills, N., 2002. Selling Forest Environmental Services. Earthscan. Rehdanz, K., Berrittella, M., Roson, R., Tol, R.S.J., 2005. Water scarcity and world trade: a computable general Equilibrium approach. paper presented at the 8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, 2005 Lübeck, Germany.
Without water: the economics of supplying water to 5 million more Australians. Water for a Healthy Country Flagship report
- M Young
- W Proctor
- E Qureshi
- G Wittwer
Young, M., Proctor, W., Qureshi, E., Wittwer, G., 2006. Without water: the economics of supplying water to 5 million more Australians. Water for a Healthy Country Flagship report. CSIRO and Monash University. Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. 57 pp.
ORANI-G: a generic single-country computable general equilibrium model. Edition prepared for the Practical GE Modelling Course
- M Horridge
Horridge, M., 2002. ORANI-G: a generic single-country computable general equilibrium model. Edition prepared for the Practical GE Modelling Course, June 17–21, 2002.
Impact on demand for water upon entering WTO—a Taiwanese case study. paper presented at the 5th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
- C Chou
- S Hsu
- P Li
Chou, C., Hsu, S., Li, P., 2002. Impact on demand for water upon entering WTO—a Taiwanese case study. paper presented at the 5th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Taipei, Taiwan. Conningarth Consulting, 2002. Disaggregated Social Accounting Matrix for South Africa. Conningarth, Pretoria. Unpublished research report.
South African Land-cover Database project, Data Users Manual Final Report (Phases 1, 2 and 3)
- M W Thompson
Thompson, M.W., 1999. South African Land-cover Database project, Data Users Manual Final Report (Phases 1, 2 and 3).
Towards internalising the cost of water pollution
- Grosskopf
Grosskopf, M., 2004. Towards internalising the cost of water pollution. In: Blignaut, J., De Wit, M. (Eds.), Sustainable options. UCT Press, Cape Town.
Triple dividends of water consumption charges in South Africa A Framework for Considering Market-based Instruments to Support Environmental Fiscal Reform in South Africa
- A Letsoalo
- J Blignaut
- T De Wet
- M De Wit
- S Hess
- R S J Tol
- J H Van Heerden
Letsoalo, A., Blignaut, J., de Wet, T., de Wit, M., Hess, S., Tol, R.S.J., Van Heerden, J.H., 2007.
Triple dividends of water consumption charges in South Africa. Water Resources
Research. 43, W05412.
National Treasury, 2006. A Framework for Considering Market-based Instruments to Support
Environmental Fiscal Reform in South Africa. National Treasury, Pretoria.
Social Accounting Matrix for South Africa
Statistics South Africa (SSA), 2001. Social Accounting Matrix for South Africa. Statistics South
Africa, Pretoria.
Water scarcity and world trade: a computable general Equilibrium approach, paper presented at the 8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
- K Rehdanz
- M Berrittella
- R Roson
- R S J Tol
Rehdanz, K., Berrittella, M., Roson, R., Tol, R.S.J., 2005. Water scarcity and world trade: a
computable general Equilibrium approach, paper presented at the 8th Annual Conference
on Global Economic Analysis, 2005 Liibeck, Germany.
Macroeconomic closure in applied general equilibrium modelling: experience from ORANI and agenda for further research
- R Cooper
- K Mclaren
- A Powell
Cooper, R., McLaren, K., Powell, A., 1985. Macroeconomic closure in applied general equilibrium
modelling: experience from ORANI and agenda for further research. In: Piggot, J.,
Whalley, J. (Eds.), New Developments in Applied General Equilibrium Analysis.
Cambridge University Press.
Valuing a city's water: the case of Tshwane. Dissertation for masters degree
- N A King
King, N.A., 2002. Valuing a city's water: the case of Tshwane. Dissertation for masters
degree, obtained from the University of Pretoria.
Silver bullet or fools' gold? A global review of markets for forest environmental services and their impacts on the poor. London, Instruments for Sustainable Private Sector Forestry Series
- N Landell-Mills
- It Porras
Landell-Mills, N., Porras, IT., 2002. Silver bullet or fools' gold? A global review of markets for
forest environmental services and their impacts on the poor. London, Instruments for
Sustainable Private Sector Forestry Series. International Institute for Environment and
Development.
Macroeconomic closure in applied general equilibrium modelling: experience from ORANI and agenda for further research
- Cooper
Impact on demand for water upon entering WTO—a Taiwanese case study
- Chou
Water resource accounts for South Africa
- CSIR
ORANI-G: a generic single-country computable general equilibrium model
- Horridge
Silver bullet or fools' gold? A global review of markets for forest environmental services and their impacts on the poor
- Landell-Mills