Article

Risky and Cautious Shifts in Group Decisions: The Influence of Widely Held Values

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Abstract

An extensive series of studies has shown that group decisions on life-situation items involving a risky dimension are significantly different from the average of the initial individual decisions of the members of the group. The present study investigates the possibility that widely held values and individuals' perceptions of their own riskiness relative to “other people like them” are important factors in individual and group decisions on life-situation items. Initial individual decisions on the items are found to be consistent with widely held values as assessed on a separate instrument. Significant differences between individuals' perceptions of their own and others' riskiness are also found. The life-situation items were divided into two types of items, on the bases of widely held values and the subjects' perceptions of their own relative riskiness. For items on which the widely held values favored the risky alternative and on which subjects considered themselves relatively risky, unanimous group decisions were more risky than the average of the initial individual decisons. The group decisions tended to be more cautious on items for which widely held values favored the cautious alternative and on which subjects considered themselves relatively cautious. The results are interpreted as supporting both the Nordhøy-Marquis general values hypothesis and the Brown “value to being relatively risky or relatively cautious” hypothesis.

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... The two constants w i and η i for each agent i are specified in Appendix A and they depend only on the signal structure and initial prior of that agent and her neighbors. The evolution of action profiles a t in (7) If the signal structures are rich enough to allow for sufficiently strong signals (having large absolute log-likelihood ratios), or if the initial priors are sufficiently balanced (dividing the probability mass almost equally between θ 1 and θ 2 ), then any action profiles belonging to {±1} n is realizable as a 0 with positive probability under (6). In particular, any recurrent state of the finite Markov chain over the Boolean cube is reachable with positive probability and the asymptotic behavior can be only determined up to a distribution over the first set of communicating recurrent states that is reached by a t , cf. ...
... This phenomenon arises as agents engage in excessive anti-imitative behavior, compensating for the neighboring priors at every period [44]. It is justified as a case of choice shift toward more extreme opinions [5], [6] or group polarization [7], [8], when like-minded people after interacting with each other and under the influence of their mutually positive feedback become more extreme in their opinions, and less receptive of opposing beliefs. ...
Preprint
We analyze a model of learning and belief formation in networks in which agents follow Bayes rule yet they do not recall their history of past observations and cannot reason about how other agents' beliefs are formed. They do so by making rational inferences about their observations which include a sequence of independent and identically distributed private signals as well as the actions of their neighboring agents at each time. Successive applications of Bayes rule to the entire history of past observations lead to forebodingly complex inferences: due to lack of knowledge about the global network structure, and unavailability of private observations, as well as third party interactions preceding every decision. Such difficulties make Bayesian updating of beliefs an implausible mechanism for social learning. To address these complexities, we consider a Bayesian without Recall model of inference. On the one hand, this model provides a tractable framework for analyzing the behavior of rational agents in social networks. On the other hand, this model also provides a behavioral foundation for the variety of non-Bayesian update rules in the literature. We present the implications of various choices for the structure of the action space and utility functions for such agents and investigate the properties of learning, convergence, and consensus in special cases.
... However, it is not yet clear whether group collaboration reduces the delay discounting and how long this effect would last. Previous studies on group collaboration have found that group collaboration can lead to risky shift; that is, individuals' opinions are often influenced by group collaboration and are usually more risky than previous individual decisions (Kogan & Wallach, 1967;Stoner, 1961Stoner, , 1968Wallach et al., 1962Wallach et al., , 1964. One important reason is that risky behavior is considered more valuable by society (Brown, 1965) and group members choosing risky choices are more influential (Teger & Pruitt, 1967). ...
... Although collaborative intertemporal choices have not been studied intensively, we can draw on previous studies on group collaborative risk decision-making. Previous studies on group collaboration on risk decision-making have found that group collaboration can lead to risky shift; that is, individuals' opinions are often influenced by group collaboration and are usually more risky than previous individual decisions (Kogan & Wallach, 1967;Stoner, 1961Stoner, , 1968Wallach et al., 1962Wallach et al., , 1964. Specifically, the risk-taking level of group decisionmaking is higher than the average risk-taking level of individual decision-making. ...
Article
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... This social comparison allows the group members to adopt more extreme positions, leading to opinion change (Myers & Lamm, 1976). Similarly, the group discussion can inform group members that one of the extreme positions (e.g., risk, gains) has more social value, and group members then assimilate their judgments toward the more valued (dominant) position (e.g., Stoner, 1968). In these situations, group members acquire information about appropriate underlying norms regarding the response alternatives. ...
... There is a surprising dearth of published articles examining mood influences in group judgments of opinion, however, such as in the group polarization paradigm. El-Hajje (1996) reported two studies that examined choice dilemma items associated with risky and cautious shifts (e.g., Stoner, 1968) in which positive, negative, and neutral moods were manipulated. The results were complex and difficult to interpret. ...
Article
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Article
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... Normally subjects erred less than 1% of the time; but in the third case they erred 36.8% of the time [4]. Another relevant study was conducted by James Stoner, who identified the so-called risky shift [45]. In the experiment people were first asked to study twelve different problems and provide their solution; after that, they had to take a final decision together, as a group. ...
Preprint
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... Towards the 2000s, a variety of psychological and social mechanisms were proposed to explain how people proceed with information, form judgments, and make decisions in everyday life. Some renowned examples were subjective probability and subjective utility in prospect theory (Kahneman 1979), the intricate interplay of interpersonal dynamics and group decision-making (Stoner 1968), and the taxonomy of dispositional decision-making styles (Scott and Bruce 1995). Recognizing that JDM's technical terms (e.g., endowment effect and hindsight bias) have been widely used in the popular press and common conversations, Highhouse and colleagues were able to gauge the importance of the psychology of JDM in applied settings. ...
Article
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... Group polarization is easy to reproduce, both in the laboratory 14 , and in everyday life 13,15 . Moscovici and Zavalloni's experiments showed that Stoner'sidea of risky shift 16 was a more specific case of the general tendency for groups to shift to a more extreme version of the initial tendency within the group. It's important to note at the outset that attitudinal extremity (attitudinal extremism) is not the same as support for violent extremism, although the two are often conflated 17 , a point we return to below. ...
Article
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The term polarization is used to describe both the division of a society into opposing groups (political polarization), and a social psychological phenomenon (group polarization) whereby people adopt more extreme positions after discussion. We explain how group polarization underpins the political polarization phenomenon: Social interaction, for example through social media, enables groups to form in such a way that their beliefs about what should be done to change the world—and how this differs from the stance of other groups—become integrated as aspects of a new, shared social identity. This provides a basis for mobilization to collective action.
... However, minority jurors do not exhibit such racial bias against their own ethnic groups. Moreover, since everyone has some type of bias, explicit or not, against groups of which they are not members (Sumner, 1959), and that bias is exacerbated when individuals are grouped with others who share the same bias (Stoner, 1968), extralegal information such as the defendant's race should be mitigated by diversifying the race of the jurors. Therefore, a racially diversified jury ought to promote impartiality. ...
Article
Before a person becomes a juror, they are a venire person who must clear voir dire, the process by which attorneys pare the original pool of potential jurors down to the standard twelve. There is much research that exists supporting the posit that White jurors are harsher toward minority defendants than they are to White defendants (Mitchell, Haw, Pfeifer & Meissner, 2005). Furthermore, group polarization is a common occurrence that has been studied since James Stoner’s paper entitled “Risky and cautious shifts in group decisions: The influence of widely held values” (1968), suggesting that a group (jury) will have more bias as an aggregate than the individual (jurors) will themselves exhibit. Thus, heterogeneity of race in a jury would likely mitigate the potential for racial bias to be a consideration in jury decisions. In fact, in Batson v. Kentucky 476 U.S. 79 (1986), the Supreme Court ruled that race must not be a factor when attorneys consider whether a venire person will or will not eventually become a juror during voir dire. However, recent cross-disciplinary research conducted by Sommers and Norton (2007) has applied experimental social psychology methods to explore this important legal issue. These experiments indicate that a more homogenous jury may still be the outcome of voir dire, regardless of the Batson decision. The paper that follows is a summary of the theoretical basis for an ongoing study.
... In this context, it becomes imperative to explore the potential relationships between the increase in homophily and the increase in polarization on Twitter as past research in social psychology (Lamm & Myers, 1978;Myers, 1975;Strandberg et al., 2019) has demonstrated that engaging in conversations with like-minded peers on specific issues can result in the adoption of ideas that are either excessively risky or overly cautious, deviating from the average individual's pre-deliberation opinions. Adoption of extreme versions of one's initial opinions due to discussion with like-minded people is commonly referred to as the "risky-shift" phenomenon in social psychology (Stoner, 1968). These concerns about social media platforms in general pushing individuals toward more extreme viewpoints have been raised even before Twitter's popularization (Sunstein, 1999). ...
Article
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The purpose of this research is to enhance our understanding of homophilic behaviors—where individuals prefer to associate with others like themselves—on Twitter, particularly focusing on how these behaviors vary across different political affiliations. While a general increase in homophily is a well-documented phenomenon in social networks, its expression within the diverse political contexts on Twitter remains underexplored. This study seeks to understand how political alignment influences homophily and its possible role in reinforcing extreme viewpoints. In particular, the research examines the patterns of interaction within political communities on French Twitter, delineating between right-wing, left-wing, and centrist groups. The findings reveal a significant pattern: right-wing groups demonstrate a marked increase in homophily over time, suggesting a stronger predilection for in-group interaction when compared with their centrist and left-wing counterparts. In addition, the study monitors the evolution of follower networks among these political clusters, providing insights into the shifting popularity of political parties within each group. By analyzing the social connections within these clusters, the study offers a detailed perspective on the dynamics of political homophily on Twitter and how it evolves, informing our understanding of political communication and group behavior in the digital age.
... Group polarization in this sense occurs "when an initial tendency of individual group members toward a given direction is enhanced following group discussion" (Isenberg, 1986(Isenberg, , p. 1141. The phenomenon was first introduced in the literature on "risky shifts" in decision-making (Stoner, 1968). A wealth of subsequent research (for reviews, see, e.g., Isenberg, 1986;Myers & Lamm, 1976) confirmed that groups frequently came to consensus views (beliefs or attitudes) that were more extreme than the individual group members' predeliberation opinions. ...
Article
Our beliefs are inextricably shaped through communication with others. Furthermore, even conversation we conduct in pairs may itself be taking place across a wider, connected social network. Our communications, and with that our thoughts, are consequently typically those of individuals in collectives. This has fundamental consequences with respect to how our beliefs are shaped. This article examines the role of dependence on our beliefs and seeks to demonstrate its importance with respect to key phenomena involving collectives that have been taken to indicate irrationality. It is argued that (with the benefit of hindsight) these phenomena no longer seem surprising when one considers the multiple dependencies that govern information acquisition and the evaluation of cognitive agents in their normal (i.e., social) context.
... As such, this line of evidence presents the strong importance and meaning of KWY in Japanese society. We do not deny potential negative consequences of KWY such that groups composed of people with high KWY only may cause problems in decision-makings of group think (Janis 1972) or group polarization (Stoner 1968), which interrupt the embracing of diversity. Nonetheless, it is obvious that the benefits of KWY are more prevalent in Japan than the downsides of KWY. ...
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Kuuki-wo-yomu (KWY) holds particular importance in Japanese society. Literally meaning ‘reading the air,’ KWY refers to attitudinal and behavioral patterns that Japanese exhibit in social groups. Noting its conceptual importance, the study intends to theorize KWY. Adopting the contextualization approach, the study explains the emergence and its structure of KWY through a thorough investigation of Japanese society and organization. A three-stage survey was conducted on 158 Japanese employees and analysis of the results indicates that KWY is perceived as an important capability. Specifically, KWY is composed of three subdimensions: (1) perception, comprising the awareness of one’s surroundings, including people, norms and rules, and implicit social contexts; (2) attitude, comprising consideration, conformity, responsibility, and maintenance of harmony; and (3) behavior, comprising flexibility, cooperation, and proactivity. This study’s novel research approach has theoretical and practical implications, and we hope it will foster follow-up studies to develop Japan-grounded behavioral concepts and theories.
... Groups influence people's perceptions and experiences [9]- [11], including their perceptions of robots. For example, groups can "polarize" opinions [12], leading to more extreme responses (positive or negative) than an individual would have of a situation or technology usage [13]. Research on human groups in humanrobot interaction (HRI) is relatively new and has not yet examined the effect of human group polarization on group members' acceptance and trust of food delivery robots. ...
... Por su parte, Latané, (1981) sostiene que la influencia del grupo aumenta con el crecimiento del mismo. James Stoner (1968) argumenta que, en un grupo, las personas tienden a tomar decisiones más arriesgadas, e Irvin Janis (1982) demostró que dentro de los grupos las decisiones disidentes, aunque acertadas, son reprimidas. Así, puede considerarse que los usuarios del sistema piramidal, una vez dentro del mismo, ven favorecida la tendencia a invertir a pesar de la irracionalidad y el riesgo de su decisión, mientras que las voces que advierten sobre esta irracionalidad son acalladas. ...
Article
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Este estudio parte de la certeza de que existe un grado de racionalidad en los individuos que participaron en los esquemas piramidales, que generaron la crisis socioeconómica de 2008 en Colombia. Consideramos que la racionalidad intrínseca de los ciudadanos debe ser evaluada al momento de determinar la responsabilidad de los mismos en el desarrollo de las pirámides; y en particular, en las pérdidas sufridas por ellos mismos. Como hipótesis fuerte, sostenemos que es irracional para los ciudadanos creer en los altos rendimientos ofrecidos por estas sociedades, y con base en esto, proponemos que es improcedente la reclamación de Responsabilidad del Estado. Por el contrario un análisis juicioso de la dinámica de las pirámides devela configurada la causal de exoneración tipificada como culpa exclusiva de la víctima.
... Por su parte, Latané, (1981) sostiene que la influencia del grupo aumenta con el crecimiento del mismo. James Stoner (1968) argumenta que, en un grupo, las personas tienden a tomar decisiones más arriesgadas, e Irvin Janis (1982) demostró que dentro de los grupos las decisiones disidentes, aunque acertadas, son reprimidas. Así, puede considerarse que los usuarios del sistema piramidal, una vez dentro del mismo, ven favorecida la tendencia a invertir a pesar de la irracionalidad y el riesgo de su decisión, mientras que las voces que advierten sobre esta irracionalidad son acalladas. ...
Article
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Las trasformaciones sociales económicas y jurídicas sumadas a los cambios constitucionales que surgen en Colombia en los últimos años, da cuenta de la necesidad que hubo de redefinir el tema del consumo, otorgando una protección especial que tuviera en cuenta las particulares exigencias del entorno en el que se desarrollan estas actividades en el que hay que repensar conceptos como el de autonomía de la voluntad y adquieren mayor importancia el tema de la información. Mediante la ley 1480 de 2011, "se ha intentado establecer entre consumidores y proveedores relaciones más equilibradas, generar un marco de respeto mutuo, aumentar el crecimiento del mercado y beneficiar con su actividad y desarrollo a la comunidad".
... One of the most significant phenomena investigated by the financial literature on how groups take collective decisions is known in social psychology with the expression of "group polarization. " This kind of social influence has been explored by Stoner (1968) his studies, finding that GDM, after group discussion, tends to be riskier than individual DM, a phenomenon that Stoner termed "risky shift. " Therefore, he stated that, if the initial opinions of group members tend to be risky, group decisions would be riskier (Davis, 1973;Myers and Lamm, 1976;Lilienthal and Hutchison, 1979). ...
Article
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Making investment decisions is usually considered a challenging task for investors because it is a process based on risky, complex, and consequential choices (Shanmuganathan, 2020). When it comes to Investments in human capital (IHC), such as startups fundings, the aspect of decision-making (DM) becomes even more critical since the outcome of the DM process is not completely predictable. Indeed, it has to take into consideration the will, goals, and motivations of each human actor involved: those who invest as well as those who seek investments. We define this specific DM process as multi-actor DM (MADM) since not a group is making decisions but different actors, or groups of different actors, who – starting from non-coinciding objectives – need to reach a mutual agreement and converge toward a common goal for the success of the investment. This review aims to give insights on psychological contributions to the study of complex DM processes that deal with IHC to provide scholars and practitioners with a theoretical framework and a tool for describing the complex socio-ecological systems involved in the DM processes. For this purpose, we discuss in the paper how the third generation of activity theory (Leont’ev, 1974, 1978;Engeström, 1987, 2001) could be used as an appropriate model to explain the specificities of MADM construct, focusing on the particular case of startup funding. Design thinking techniques will be proposed as a methodology to create a bridge between different activity systems.
... Early work by Stoner (1961) coined the term 'the risky shift', suggesting that group choices tend to be riskier than those made by individuals, and this has been supported in more contemporary research (Blakemore & Mills, 2014;Reynolds et al., 2013). There is, however, little understanding of this phenomenon and Stoner himself argued that groups may also produce more cautious decisions dependent on the risk scenario (Stoner, 1968). ...
Article
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Objective: Existing research examining how social forces and alcohol interact to impact risky behaviors has yielded contrasting findings, possibly due to the nature and variety of risk-taking tasks used and the failure to consider the role of emotion. Using a novel risk task, akin to real-world drinking games, this study examines the effect of intoxication and group contexts on risk-taking, considering mediating effects of mood. Method: One hundred thirty-two social drinkers (83 females) consumed an alcoholic (0.8 g/kg) or placebo beverage before participating in the shuffleboard game (designed to mimic real drinking games) either individually (N = 66) or in the presence of two friends (N = 66). Mood was assessed before and after beverage consumption. Results: When controlling for group identity, intoxication (vs. placebo) was associated with significantly higher risk-taking, although there was no impact of group context. No interaction between context and intoxication was observed, and mood did not mediate this relationship. Conclusions: Intoxication increases risk-taking behavior regardless of whether an individual is in a group, or isolated, whereas groups do not appear to enhance risky behavior. Previous evidence of an effect of groups on risk-taking may have been due to a failure to control for the effect of group identity. To reduce risky behaviors, interventions may benefit from targeting alcohol use while considering how preexisting social norms within a friendship group may either mitigate or exacerbate risk. Results affirm the importance of considering both intoxication and group effects on affective states when investigating risk-taking behaviors.
... Spontaneously coordinated collective action continues to be at the center of human sport, artistic performance, and work. Moreover, although the failings of group performance have dominated much of social psychology in the 20th century (e.g., Janis, 1972;Stasser & Titus, 1987;Stoner, 1968), groups regularly outperform individuals on a wide range of problems (Hastie, 1986;Hill, 1982;Kerr & Tindale, 2004;Levine & Moreland, 1998;Wegner, 1987). Indeed, groups outperform even the best individual performances (Krause et al., 2010;Laughlin et al., 2006), suggesting that the superiority of group performance is due to group-level deliberation and pooling of cognitive resources. ...
Article
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Contemporary research on human sociality is heavily influenced by the social identity approach, positioning social categorization as the primary mechanism governing social life. Building on the distinction between agency and identity in the individual self (“I” vs. “Me”), we emphasize the analogous importance of distinguishing collective agency from collective identity (“We” vs. “Us”). While collective identity is anchored in the unique characteristics of group members, collective agency involves the adoption of a shared subjectivity that is directed toward some object of our attention, desire, emotion, belief, or action. These distinct components of the collective self are differentiated in terms of their mental representations, neurocognitive underpinnings, conditions of emergence, mechanisms of social convergence, and functional consequences. Overall, we show that collective agency provides a useful complement to the social categorization approach, with unique implications for multiple domains of human social life, including collective action, responsibility, dignity, violence, dominance, ritual, and morality.
... Spontaneously coordinated collective action continues to be at the center of human sport, artistic performance, and work. Moreover, although the failings of group performance have dominated much of social psychology in the 20th century (e.g., Janis, 1972;Stasser & Titus, 1987;Stoner, 1968), groups regularly outperform individuals on a wide range of problems (Hastie, 1986;Hill, 1982;Kerr & Tindale, 2004;Levine & Moreland, 1998;Wegner, 1987). Indeed, groups outperform even the best individual performances (Krause et al., 2010;Laughlin et al., 2006), suggesting that the superiority of group performance is due to group-level deliberation and pooling of cognitive resources. ...
Preprint
Full-text available
Contemporary research on human sociality is heavily influenced by the social identity approach, positioning social categorization as the primary mechanism governing social life. Building on the distinction between agency and identity in the individual self (“I” versus “Me”), we emphasize the analogous importance of distinguishing collective agency from collective identity (“We” versus “Us”). While collective identity is anchored in the unique characteristics of group members, collective agency involves the adoption of a shared subjectivity that is directed toward some object of our attention, desire, emotion, belief, or action. These distinct components of the collective self are differentiated in terms of their mental representations, neuro-cognitive underpinnings, conditions of emergence, mechanisms of social convergence, and functional consequences. Overall, we show that collective agency provides a useful complement to the social categorization approach, with unique implications for multiple domains of human social life, including collective action, responsibility, dignity, violence, dominance, ritual, and morality.
... Evidence from previous studies also suggests that social norms highly influence individual decisions and behaviors (Stoner, 1968). Gelfand et al. (2011) posit that tight culture is characterized by stricter social norms and less tolerance towards aberrant behaviors, whereas loose culture allows more room for individual discretion. ...
Article
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Small and medium-sized firms, particularly startups, are highly vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic because of their financial instability. Using a sample of listed startups across four countries, we investigate whether a startup's built-up capacity pre-COVID-19 can stimulate corporate immunity to endure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, reflected via stock performance. We find that the increase in the accumulated COVID-19 confirmed cases worsens stock returns and that the negative effect is alleviated if startups are greater in size as well as have low debt, large board size and CEO duality. Moreover, national cultural dimensions significantly moderate the relationship between stock returns and COVID-19. The COVID-19 negative impact is relieved in societies where people are more collectivistic and cooperative, less tolerant towards uncertainty, and more long-term oriented. Overall, our results support the consolidation of corporate capacities and suggest policymakers consider national culture when formulating COVID-19 or similar infectious pandemic strategies.
... The evidence of risky shifts phenomenon has been systemically reported in psychological reviews for some time now, with the earliest one being Stoner (as cited in Aloka, 2020) who researched on the risky shift phenomenon. Other studies by Wallach, Kogan, and Bemin, (1964) and Aloka (2012) adopted the Stoner's (1968) Choice Dilemma Questionnaire (CDQ) to study group polarization. Moreover, Stoner (as cited in Aloka, 2020) later argued that during group deliberations, there is a tendency of individual members to shift their decisions and realign them with the decision that is preferred by the other group members. ...
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The study examined group polarization in decision-making among teacher-members of disciplinary panels based on secondary school affiliations in Kenya. The pre-post with Nonequivalent Control Group design was used. A sample size comprised of 78 teacher-members of disciplinary panels in 10 secondary schools. Group polarization was measured with decision tasks from the Modified Choice Dilemma Questionnaire (Kogan & Wallach, 1964). A multivariate test was used to analyze the data. Findings indicated significant differences in group polarization in decisions among teachers on the bases of school affiliations were reported on the effect of behaviour problem regarding disciplinary tone. This finding implied that school affiliations play an important role in management of students’ behavior problems. The study recommended that schools should provide training for school disciplinary panel members before they take up their roles in student behavior management.
... A polarização propriamente dita só vai aparecer a partir dos experimentos sobre a mudança arriscada (risky shift) realizados por Stoner (1967Stoner ( , 1968 Martin- Baró (1983Baró ( , 1988Baró ( , 1990a ...
Chapter
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Jodelet, D. (2021). Sobre o espírito do tempo e representações sociais. In A. Roso et al. (Eds.), Mundos sem fronteiras. Representações sociais e práticas psicossociais (pp. 84-108). Florianopolis : Abrapso Editora.
... A justificativa da escolha mais arriscada vincula-se aos valores culturais do grupo, ou seja, o grupo tomará a decisão que esteja de acordo com os valores compartilhados pelos participantes (Stoner, 1968). Outra característica das decisões tomadas em grupo diz respeito à autonomia de indivíduos dentro do grupo, além de sua capacidade limitada de atribuir responsabilidade de quem não faz parte dele (Ambrus, Greiner, & Pathak, 2009). ...
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Este caso para ensino apresenta o desafio do principal executivo de uma empresa com sede na província de Buenos Aires, Argentina, frente à necessidade de viabilizar novas estratégias de negócios diante da crise acarretada pela pandemia da Covid-19. A empresa Compuestos S.A, retratada nesse estudo, atua na cadeia automotiva, mineração e construção civil e, como a maioria das organizações nos diversos segmentos, presencia uma crise pandêmica sem precedentes. O executivo tem como prioridade garantir o pagamento dos salários de seus funcionários, ao mesmo tempo que busca assegurar a viabilidade do negócio, levando em conta as iniciativas do governo argentino, bem como sua visão mercadológica. Trata-se de relato verídico, a partir de dados obtidos por entrevista junto ao executivo da empresa. O caso busca provocar reflexão a respeito de tomada de decisão em tempos de crise, considerando aspectos voláteis próprios de situações como as que se apresentam na pandemia causada pelo novo coronavírus.
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The educability model is a computational model that has been recently proposed to describe the cognitive capability that makes humans unique among existing biological species on Earth in being able to create advanced civilizations. Educability is defined as a capability for acquiring and applying knowledge. It is intended both to describe human capabilities and, equally, as an aspirational description of what can be usefully realized by machines. While the intention is to have a mathematically well-defined computational model, in constructing an instance of the model there are a number of decisions to make. We call these decisions {\it parameters}. In a standard computer, two parameters are the memory capacity and clock rate. There is no universally optimal choice for either one, or even for their ratio. Similarly, in a standard machine learning system, two parameters are the learning algorithm and the dataset used for training. Again, there are no universally optimal choices known for either. An educable system has many more parameters than either of these two kinds of system. This short paper discusses some of the main parameters of educable systems, and the broader implications of their existence.
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Group hate, a phenomenon increasingly prevalent in recent world history, manifests in ethnic hatred, mass killings, terrorism, and war. In this context, psychoanalysis offers a unique perspective, modestly contributing to the understanding of group hate through the analysis of human aggression and defenses against such aggression. Human beings, while requiring a group life to maintain basic security, often fear being immersed and judged by other individuals in the group. This paper delves into three mechanisms, interpellation, group polarization, and projective identification, that individuals employ to defend against such fears. Interpellation, for instance, sheds light on how cultural forces, referred to as ideology, influence personal identity. The latter two mechanisms, group polarization, and projective identification, foster in‐group solidarity and hatred of the out‐group, thereby perpetuating widening splits and cycles of hatred and vengeance between groups. The paper concludes by advocating for the humanization of the hated others, setting aside fantasies of vengeance, and finding areas of compromise as the way forward. A secondary goal of the paper is to address the split within psychoanalysis between intrapsychic and interpersonal concepts.
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Why do human beings exhibit enduring personality differences, and to what extent are these differences shaped by biological and cultural evolution? Despite ongoing efforts, a consensus framework remains elusive. This paper introduces the Diversity Advantage Theory, partially shifting the focus from how personality impacts individuals to its influence within groups. Through an evolutionary lens, connections among personality, collective cognition, and group dynamics are explored, revealing that diversity in personality traits would tend to enhance collective intelligence and foster deliberation, mitigating group biases. The framework proposes that biologically evolved psychological mechanisms underlying personality, including individual niche-finding, adapt and conform to culturally evolving heuristic personality traits. This co-evolution stabilized the Big Few personality traits in western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic (WEIRD) societies, addressing recurring group challenges related to engagement, closure, task, risk, and change. The Diversity Advantage Theory offers a novel explanatory framework for stable personality traits, aligning with biology and testable in contemporary group contexts. At least three novel perspectives are introduced: (1) personality trait dimensions have emerged, in part, to establish normative behavior for functional group processes; (2) normative diversity along trait dimensions enhances collective intelligence; and (3) such diversity should also promote deliberation, mitigate group biases, and improve group decision-making.
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This paper examines the fundamental problem of testimony. Much of what we believe to know we know in good part, or even entirely, through the testimony of others. The problem with testimony is that we often have very little on which to base estimates of the accuracy of our sources. Simulations with otherwise optimal agents examine the impact of this for the accuracy of our beliefs about the world. It is demonstrated both where social networks of information dissemination help and where they hinder. Most importantly, it is shown that both social networks and a common strategy for gauging the accuracy of our sources give rise to polarisation even for entirely accuracy motivated agents. Crucially these two factors interact, amplifying one another’s negative consequences, and this side effect of communication in a social network increases with network size. This suggests a new causal mechanism by which social media may have fostered the increase in polarisation currently observed in many parts of the world.
Chapter
Office work is increasingly collaborative in the 21st century. ‘Information culture' is a broad set of values and behavioural workplace norms pertaining to information management and use. To investigate whether information culture influences use of collaborative information tools, conceptualization and measurement instruments are presented for information culture and measuring effective use. ‘Group adoption' is a behavioural proxy for effective use, and ‘information sharing' and ‘proactive information use' were selected as behavioural proxies for information culture. In a study of an engineering firm, group adoption was correlated with actual use of an information tool and with two tool attitude measures. Group adoption was also correlated with both information culture measures. The findings here suggest new avenues of research into the broader applicability of group adoption, and the ways in which conceptualization and measurement of information culture may be further developed.
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Актуальність дослідження зумовлена потребою виявлення регіональних особливостей національної ідентифікації, що знайшли відображення в уявленнях молоді про майбутнє, зокрема у воєнний час. Розвиток національної ідентичності учнівської та студентської молоді є окремим напрямом державної освітньої політики в Україні. Мета статті полягає у висвітленні концептуальних засад та програми емпіричного дослідження регіональних особливостей національної ідентифікації в уявленнях молоді про майбутнє. Результати. У контексті дослідження національну ідентифікацію розглянуто як усвідомлення людиною своєї належності до політичної нації. Виокремлено показники національної ідентичності в образах майбутнього молоді (сприймання національних і культурних символів; усвідомлення своєї належності до держави; переживання, пов’язані з усвідомленням належності до української політичної нації; спільні цінності та очікування щодо майбутнього; ставлення до мови; уявлення про територіальні межі держави; розуміння історії; геополітичне спрямування; розуміння національної єдності). Визначено параметри оцінювання образу майбутнього молоді: ідеалістичний-реалістичний; суб’єктний-зовнішньозалежний; сутнісний-поверховий; стереотипний-креативний; індивідуальний-колективний; еклектичний-цілісний. У програмі емпіричного дослідження національної ідентифікації молоді в проєктуванні майбутнього передбачено три послідовні етапи та використання таких методів, як-от: глибинне інтерв’ю, метод колажів, психосемантичні методи, методи математичної статистики, сторітелінг, сценарні методи. Перспективи подальших досліджень полягають у вивченні регіональних особливостей національної ідентифікації молоді в проєктуванні майбутнього та визначенні можливих напрямів розвитку державної освітньої політики в контексті євроінтеграції.
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Although studies on group decision-making have greatly contributed to our understanding of group dynamics, it is necessary to further examine the factors that influence group decision-making with conversational agents, such as the agents’ opinions and people’s attitude toward the agents. This study examined the effect of discussion with a group of conversational agents on participants’ decisions. We manipulated the conversational agents’ group opinions and discussion type, and examined individual differences, such as participants’ attitudes toward the agents. In an online experiment, participants read a decision-seeking scenario and responded to the degree of risk they were willing to take. After viewing the opinions of six conversational agents, the participants made a decision again for the same scenario. The results revealed that participants’ decisions shifted toward agents’ opinions regardless of whether they were risky or cautious. Additionally, when the agents’ group opinions were more risk-biased and included a minority opinion, the associations between the degree of a shift to riskier decisions and positive attitude toward the agents were significant. These findings indicate that the agents’ group opinions guided participants toward both risky and cautious decisions and participants’ attitude toward the agents associated with their decision-making, although to a limited extent.
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Duties to address global injustices face a large motivation gap, particularly amongst those populations most capable of bearing the financial burdens of fulfiling them. This motivation gap is explained, at least in part, by the structure of the state system, which facilitates group identification with fellow citizens to a greater extent than with outsiders. This structural feature of the state system gives states little incentive to further the cause of global justice. Yet, given that states are the most powerful actors on the global stage today, a more just global order is likely predicated upon the development of more just states. In light of these realities, in this paper I make the case for an approach to furthering global justice which i call inward internationalisation. Inward internationalisation calls for the initially modest structural transformation of domestic states, so as to make domestic governments and their constituents increasingly sensitive to their international obligations. Inward internationalisation involves states giving a public, formal, and institutionalised voice within their own domestic deliberations to other states' representatives. This serves informational, expressive, and dynamic functions. After outlining these functions, thereby showing the attraction of inward internationalisation, I argue for the strategic accessibility of inward internationalisation as a path to reform, by outlining the dynamics which might cause inward internationalisation to spread as a norm of governance amongst states.
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Consensus-reaching process (CRP) plays an important role in the group decision-making (GDM) process. And CRP is a game between the decision makers (DMs) and the moderator, which involves a series of issues about whether DMs accept the modification suggestions from moderators, how the moderators determine the optimal recommendations and whether compensation is available. To reflect the dynamic interaction between moderators and DMs in CRP, we propose a novel consensus model based on the evolutionary game theory. Specifically, we conduct the strategy stability analysis between DMs and moderators, and prove that there is an evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) with mixed strategies. Then, an ESS-based multi-objective programming consensus model (MOPCM) is developed with the maximum expected utility of DMs and moderators. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm is designed to obtain the Pareto solution set containing suggested opinions, adjusted opinions, and the unit adjustment cost. In addition, we provide decision-making guidance for consensus improvement through sensitivity analysis and demonstrate the significance of the evolutionary game between DMs and moderators on CRP.
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Parrondo’s paradox (inspired by the flashing Brownian ratchet) and Simpson’s paradox (a statistical phenomenon) are two popular paradoxes that have attracted immense interest across many fields ranging from decision theory, evolutionary biology to social dynamics. In this article, we show that risk-taking behaviour through aggregate decision-making on Parrondo’s games can lead to the emergence of Simpson’s paradox. By partitioning the network of individuals according to risk-taking behaviours, we show that it is possible that the trend of capital losses from playing Parrondo’s games reverses when these groups are combined—the signature of Simpson’s paradox. This work reports on the emergence of the double paradox on a scale-free network and a social network, with the potential to uncover such instances in other social settings as well.
Technical Report
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Insbesondere im Handel werden die Potenziale des Internets und verwandter Technologien seit dem Ende der Euphoriephase im Jahr 2000 mit gewisser Skepsis und Zurückhaltung betrachtet. Wiewohl die Erwartungen an eine „neue Ökonomie“ überzogen gewesen sein mögen, ist es durchaus möglich, dass auch die neue Rückbesinnung nicht in angemessener Weise ökonomisch rational und begründbar ist. Zwar lehren die Erfahrungen mit dem Handel im Internet, dass nicht jedes Produkt und jede Dienstleistung für den elektronischen Vertrieb geeignet ist; viele sind es jedoch, wie vorhandene Beispiele erfolgreicher Unternehmen zeigen. Weiterhin beschränken sich die Potenziale des Internets nicht auf den elektronischen Vertrieb. Viele Führungskräfte haben erkannt, dass Prozesse zwischen Unternehmen (B2B-E-Business) und auch innerhalb von Organisationen sich auf der Basis der Internet-Technologie optimieren lassen. Eine gesteigerte Reaktionsgeschwindigkeit, intensivierte Kommunikation und gesenkte administrative Kosten sind nur einige Beispiele für Verbesserungspotenziale, die bereits in beachtenswertem Umfang realisiert werden. Gerade kleine und mittelständische Unternehmen können sich das Internet nutzbar machen, wie sich am Beispiel der elektronischen Beschaffung verdeutlichen lässt: Das E-Commerce-Center Handel fand in der Befragung „Internet im Handel und in ausgewählten Dienstleistungsbereichen 2002“ heraus, dass es vorrangig kleinere Unternehmen sind, die in den letzten Jahren Maßnahmen zur elektronischen Beschaffung über das Internet ergriffen haben. Die Vermutung liegt nahe, dass diese Tendenz darin begründet ist, dass Großunternehmen ihre Beschaffung mithilfe von Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) schon früher optimiert haben, während die kleinen und mittelständischen Betriebe Investitionen in diese Technologie nicht aufwenden konnten, wollten oder mussten. Die geplante und proaktive Integration der vielschichtigen Anwendungsmöglichkeiten des Internets in Geschäftsprozesse bietet den kleineren Betrieben Möglichkeiten zur Optimierung, die vorher unmöglich gewesen wären. Insofern ist festzuhalten, dass es bereits viele Unternehmen gibt, die die Internet- Technologie nutzbringend einsetzen. Ein großer Teil tut dies bislang jedoch nicht. Insbesondere die bisher eher inaktiven Organisationen stehen vor der Frage, ob ihre Zurückhaltung im ökonomischen Sinn gerechtfertigt ist oder ob sich die Investition von Geld und Zeit in die Einführung neuer Technologien und Systeme lohnen würde. Diese grundlegende Entscheidung wird häufig „aus dem Bauch“ heraus getroffen, oder die Frage wird von vornherein nicht explizit gestellt. In den Fällen, in denen die Entscheidung zur Einführung neuer Systeme gefallen ist, schließt sich das Problem an, die Unterstützung der Belegschaft zu sichern. Wenn schon Führungskräfte oftmals vor Neuerungen zurückschrecken, trifft dies für Mitarbeiter noch häufiger zu, denn diese sind meist mit der Umsetzung betraut und müssen mit und in den neuen Systemen arbeiten. Diese Grundüberlegungen sollen verdeutlichen, dass von rein ökonomischen Überlegungen abweichende Erkenntnisse in die Entscheidungsfindung bezüglich der Einführung neuer Systeme einbezogen werden müssen. Die Berücksichtigung von Aspekten des menschlichen Verhaltens, der Einstellungsbildung und der Wahrnehmung ist vonnöten, um eine tatsächlich ökonomisch sinnvolle Entscheidung für oder gegen neue Systeme treffen zu können. Die vorliegende Arbeit verfolgt das Ziel, Entscheidungsträgern diejenigen möglichen Ursachen für nicht rationale Handlungsweisen in Bezug auf Veränderungen aufzuzeigen, die auf dem „Faktor Mensch“ beruhen. Dabei wird nicht explizit auf bestimmte Systeme oder Technologien eingegangen, sondern insgesamt die Veränderung in und von Organisationen untersucht. Die Tendenz, solche Veränderungen zu vermeiden und zu verhindern, lässt sich treffend, wenn auch etwas unhandlich, mit dem Begriff „organisatorischer Konservatismus“ umschreiben. Dieser in der Literatur zu Organisationsveränderungen verwendete Term bringt zum Ausdruck, dass Neuerungen und Variationen häufig nicht deshalb nicht durchgeführt werden, weil sie nicht sinnvoll wären, sondern weil es eine menschliche und organisatorische Tendenz gibt, am Vorhandenen und Althergebrachten festzuhalten. Der Begriff des organisatorischen Konservatismus wird in der vorliegenden Arbeit verwendet, um die breite Anwendbarkeit der dargestellten Konzepte zum Ausdruck zu bringen. So lassen sich die Erkenntnisse erstens auf verschiedene Arten von Veränderungen beziehen, zweitens auf verschiedene Formen von Organisationen: Sowohl kleine, mittelständische und große Unternehmen als auch öffentliche Verwaltungen oder gar Vereine können vom organisatorischen Konservatismus betroffen sein. Wer sich mit Gründen für mangelnde Veränderungsbereitschaft beschäftigt, wird schnell eine sehr große Anzahl von möglichen Erklärungen finden, die noch dazu aus unterschiedlichen wissenschaftlichen Perspektiven stammen. Um der Fülle möglicher Faktoren Herr zu werden, wird im Folgenden das Konzept der „eingeschränkten VIIRationalität“ zur Auswahl und Systematisierung verwendet. Explizit nicht betrachtet werden insofern diejenigen Veränderungshemmnisse, die als rational und ökonomisch begründbar eingestuft werden können. Der Anwender der hier vorgestellten Konzepte sollte im Einzelfall entscheiden, ob dieser Bezugsrahmen für die konkrete Veränderungssituation ausreichend ist. Am Institut für Handelsforschung, dem die Geschäftsführung des ECC Handel obliegt, erfolgte schon früher eine Untersuchung von Innovationshemmnissen in Bezug auf das Internet. Beispielsweise stellte Hudetz in seiner Dissertation „Prozessinnovationen im Großhandel“ aus dem Jahr 2000 empirisch gestützt die wesentlichen Gründe für das Ausbleiben von Neuerungen dar. Die Vorgehensweise in der vorliegenden Arbeit ist insofern anders, als dass eine breite empirische Untersuchung nicht zugrunde gelegt wird; stattdessen werden die vorhandenen Konzepte und Thesen zur Veränderungsbereitschaft in Organisationen theoriegeleitet dargestellt. Dennoch mangelt es der Arbeit nicht an praxisrelevanter Fundierung, denn sie entstand aufgrund von Überlegungen zur Einführung eines Intranet-basierten Wissensmanagementsystems bei einem Unternehmen der freien Wirtschaft. Ein solches System, sei es nun in seinem technischen oder in seinem organisatorischen Sinn begriffen, stellt eine besondere Herausforderung an das Veränderungsmanagement dar. Dem Übergang von einem oft in Organisationen anzutreffenden „Geheimnisprinzip“ hin zu einer Kultur der Wissensteilung stehen oft scheinbar unlösbare Hemmnisse entgegen. Der Begriff „System“, der im Titel dieser Untersuchung als Betrachtungsgegenstand enthalten ist, wird im Folgenden allerdings sehr weit ausgelegt und ist insofern nicht auf Wissensmanagement beschränkt. Stattdessen sollten die vorgestellten Ansätze sich auf all jene Systeme übertragen lassen, die das Ergebnis des Organisierens sind. Befragungen und Beobachtungen der Mitglieder einer Organisation waren erste Ansatzpunkte zur Auswahl und Darstellung der Gründe für Veränderungshemmnisse in dieser Arbeit. Der vorliegende Bezugsrahmen geht jedoch in seiner Anwendbarkeit über die Konstellationen in einer einzigen Organisation bei Weitem hinaus.
Chapter
Teamarbeit ist eine weit verbreitete Form der Zusammenarbeit in Organisationen, deren Beliebtheit stetig wächst. Dabei werden Begriffe wie (Arbeits)Gruppen und Teams oft synonym verwendet. Doch gerade ein Team ist mehr als die (mitunter nur räumliche) Verbindung von Einzelpersonen und mehr als die Vernetzung ihrer individuellen Fähigkeiten und Fertigkeiten. Teams stellen eine besondere Form der Gruppe dar, die sich insbesondere durch spezifische Aufgaben-, Ziel- und Leistungsorientierung auszeichnen. Auch Leitungskräfte versprechen sich durch Teamarbeit vielfältige Vorteile, so z. B. im Bereich der kompetenzorientierten Arbeitsteilung und Flexibilität, der besseren Steuerung und gegenseitigen Unterstützung sowie der Stärkung von Kooperation, Kommunikation, Kreativität. Damit sollen auch Erfolge im Umgang mit Komplexität, steigender Veränderungsgeschwindigkeit sowie der Förderung von Innovationen erzielt werden. Empirische Forschungsergebnisse zeigen Vorteile von Teamarbeit auf, weisen jedoch zugleich auf einige Problemfelder hin. Denn die Annahme, dass Teams automatisch mehr als die Summe ihrer Einzelteile sind, ist nicht eindeutig belegt. In Teams entstehen Reibungsverluste, u. a. durch notwendige und nicht immer gut funktionierende Abstimmungsprozesse, unterschiedliche bzw. unklaren Ziele, Rollen- und Aufgabenverständnisse oder den Rückzug von Teammitgliedern sowie unzureichender Teamführung. Teams können auch sehr erfolgreich sein, was jedoch nicht selbstverständlich ist und nachhaltig gepflegt werden muss. Neben gemeinsam geteilten Zielen, wirksamer Kommunikation, psychologischer Sicherheit und Teamzusammenhalt, sind vor allem eine gute Teamführung, teamförderliche Rahmenbedingungen sowie bestimmte Eigenschaften der Teammitglieder wichtig für den nachhaltigen Teamerfolg. Das Feld der Teamentwicklung bietet hierzu Gestaltungsansätze im Bereich der Umwelt von Teams, der Arbeitsaufgabe bzw. der Zielsteuerung und insbesondere Aspekte, die das Team selbst wie die Führungskraft betreffen. Wie im individuellen Führungskontext gilt auch hier: humaner Erfolg ist die Basis von Teamerfolg. Für die Führungskraft ist entscheidend, eine angemessene Balance zu finden zwischen integrierendem Coach, Moderator*in und Autonomieunterstützer*in auf der einen Seite und zielorientiertem Teamleader auf der anderen Seite, um die vereinbarten Ziele innerhalb der Organisation zu erreichen und zugleich einen guten, resilienten Teamspirit zu entwickeln bzw. zu erhalten.
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Using inappropriate criteria in contractor’s selection can lead to the failure of a construction project. This study aims to provide an optimal solution for contractor selection using multi-criteria. The criteria were obtained from previous research and concluded in the Focus Group Discussion. The analytical method used is Fuzzy-AHP, involving 14 experts who are registered contractors in the Company who have good performance and the contractor selection process involves a Tender Committee consisting of 5 appointed employees. The conclusion of this study shows that the criteria and weights that can be used for contractor selection are 35% bid, 22% technical ability, 13% financial ability, 11% reputation, 10% management ability and the last safety management with a weight of 9%. Each criterion has sub-criteria indicators with a total of 41 sub-criteria. Result of the consistency ratio below 10%. The conclusion contractor selection analysis using multi-criteria can screen the best contractor.
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Risk aversion is a universal characteristic of humans. This is demonstrated by simple experiments showing, for example, that people will overwhelmingly choose a sure 3000overan803000 over an 80% chance of 4000. This is despite the fact that the expected value of the risky option is 3200demonstratingthatpeoplewillpaytoavoidrisk.TheSwissmathematicianDanielBernoulli(1738/1954)anticipatedthisoverthreecenturiesago,whenheobservedthatthepsychologicalvalueofgoingfrom3200—demonstrating that people will pay to avoid risk. The Swiss mathematician Daniel Bernoulli (1738/1954) anticipated this over three centuries ago, when he observed that the psychological value of going from 3000 to 4000doesnotcomparetothejoyassociatedwithgoingfrom4000 does not compare to the joy associated with going from 0 to $1000.¹ A general predisposition toward risk aversion does not, however, preclude the existence of individual differences in trait risk-taking (Frey et al., 2017). Men generally take more risks than do women (Byrnes et al., 1999, Frey et al., 2020), and older people take fewer risks than do younger ones (Frey et al., 2020, Josef et al., 2016). There is also considerable variability from person to person in financial, recreational, ethical, and social risk-taking behaviors (Weber et al., 2002). Variability in self-reported risk propensity has been assessed using a variety of measures (e.g., Goldberg et al., 2006, Jackson, 1994, Krueger et al., 2012, Meertens and Lion, 2008; Weber et al., 2002; Zhang et al., 2019), and is associated with important academic, work, and life outcomes (Dohmen et al., 2011, Mishra et al., 2017; O’Neill & Hastings, 2011; Stewart and Roth, 2001, Zhang et al., 2019). Nevertheless, as we will discuss below, a general appetite for risk has only recently been recognized as a personality trait (rather than as a situation-specific attitude). Our goal in this meta-analysis is to further establish risk propensity as a distinct construct that has utility in prediction over and above the five-factor model (FFM) of personality (Ashton et al., 1998, Paunonen and Jackson, 2000). Demonstrating divergence from the “Big Five” has served as a sort of litmus test for the legitimacy and utility of novel personality constructs (e.g., Lipnevich et al., 2017; O’Boyle et al., 2015). Moreover, Paunonen and Jackson (2000) noted that identifying theoretically meaningful classes of behavior requires showing: (1) that they are not correlated highly with the Big Five, and (2) that these dimensions account for criterion variance over and above that explained by the Big Five (See Bainbridge et al., 2022, for an extended treatment of this issue). As such, our meta-analysis investigated whether risk propensity is a construct distinct from the FFM, and whether it provides incremental prediction of outcomes such as entrepreneurship, workplace deviance, health compliance, and investment decisions. Establishing the legitimacy and utility of risk propensity is especially important given earlier arguments against the consideration of risk propensity as a personality construct (e.g., Figner and Weber, 2011, Fox and Tannenbaum, 2011, Wang et al., 2009). In the following sections, we provide as background early issues surrounding the measurement of risk propensity, especially regarding: (1) distinguishing risk propensity from related constructs, (2) differentiating self-reported risk propensity from risk-taking attitude inferred from experimental tasks, and (3) distinguishing general risk propensity from domain-specific risk tendency. We then review research examining risk propensity’s standing relative to the FFM, risk propensity’s relative utility in prediction, and how our meta-analysis will shed light on these questions.
Chapter
There are various losses in the process of working together as a group. On the other hand, even individuals with limited knowledge can operate complex systems using information obtained from the environment and others. Groups also communicate and pay attention to shared information, yet because of their wisdom, they make various errors.
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The importance of understanding the systematic differences between group and individual decisions has been well recognized in the literature. However, the vast majority of empirical evidence on this issue is derived from laboratory experiments, and hence does not reflect professional incentives and career concerns, both of which may play a crucial role. To fill this gap, I exploit a unique regulatory change that exogenously decreased the number of presiding arbitrators from three to one for a specific class of cases in the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority arbitration and an original data set of arbitration awards. The findings indicate that panels of three arbitrators render more extreme “all or nothing” awards compared to sole arbitrators. An arbitrator fixed effects model confirms that this tendency is also present within arbitrators, thus ruling out that the effect is driven by differential selection of arbitrators into panels. Rather, evidence suggests that groups provide individual arbitrators with a “shield of anonymity” which mitigates their concerns about adverse reputational effects of extreme decisions.
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Recently, concerns have been raised on the adverse impacts of social media on people's subjective well-being. Using a large and representative sample of Chinese individuals, we explore the effects of social media browsing and social media communication on users' life satisfaction. The results show that while social media browsing has a strong negative impact on users' subjective well-being, there is no significant impact generated by social media communication. The relative income and social comparison are the main drivers of the result. The negative impact of social media browsing is more pronounced for low-income people than for high-income people. We do not find support for other possible mechanisms like information cocoons of information fragmentation.
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Aside from money, what works best to incentivize teams? Using a randomized field experiment, I test whether fixed-wage workers respond better to private rank incentives or public recognition, and whether image motivation crowds out intrinsic motivation. School-feeding teams in 450 South-African schools were randomly assigned to receiving (i) private feedback through rank information, (ii) public recognition through symbolic award, (iii) both feedback and award, or (iv) no intervention. The analysis yields two main findings. First, private feedback raises performance more than public recognition are more effective when offered separately, receiving feedback on performance boosts effort more than public recognition. Second, image motivation crowds out intrinsic motivation, especially for low-ability teams. This suggests that providing performance feedback can be an effective policy for leveraging intrinsic motivation and improving service delivery, more so than mechanisms leveraging image motivation.
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VARIED EXPOSURE TO GROUP DISCUSSION (LIVE VS. TAPED) TO EXAMINE THE EFFECT OF PHYSICAL PRESENCE OF OTHERS ON INCREASED RISK TAKING IN GROUPS. 160 SS, EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED BY EXPOSURE AND 2 CONDITIONS OF JUDGMENT, PREDICTED THE BEHAVIOR OF PERSONS (S HIMSELF OR HYPOTHETICAL) IN CONFLICT ABOUT STEALING. 16 ITEMS, EACH VARYING THE EXPECTANCY AND REINFORCEMENT VALUE OF GAIN OR CENSURE, WERE JUDGED. EXPOSURE TO LIVE DISCUSSION, BUT NOT TO THE SAME DISCUSSION ON TAPE, PRODUCED THE INCREASED RISK, THUS SUPPORTING A GROUP STRUCTURE HYPOTHESIS. HOWEVER, LIVE DISCUSSION APPARENTLY ALSO PRODUCED A SHIFT IN THE SOCIAL VALUE OF THE RISK.
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RESULTS OF A 2 * 2 FACTORIAL EXPERIMENT WITH 180 MALE COLLEGE STUDENTS REPLICATED PREVIOUS FINDINGS CONCERNING THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES OF GROUP DISCUSSION AND FAMILIARIZATION UPON SHIFTS IN RISK-TAKING DISPOSITIONS AND REVEALED A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE VARIABLES, INDICATING THAT GROUP DISCUSSION PRODUCES RISK-TAKING SHIFTS AMONG UNFAMILIARIZED SS BUT HAS NO EFFECT UPON FAMILIARIZED SS. PREDICTIONS CONCERNING THIS INTERACTION BASED UPON PREVIOUSLY ELABORATED EXPLANATIONS OF THE RISKY SHIFT EFFECT IN TERMS OF GROUP PROCESSES (RESPONSIBILITY DIFFUSION AND INTERPERSONAL INFLUENCE) WERE UNCONFIRMED. THE OBSERVED RISKY SHIFTS CAN BE INTERPRETED IN TERMS OF A PROCESS OF INCREASED COMPREHENSION, WHICH IS THEORIZED TO BE THE OUTCOME OF INTERPOLATED FAMILIARIZATION OR DISCUSSION PROCEDURES.
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This study reports evidence supporting the following propositions: (a) Group discussion and consensus concerning decisions that involve actual risks and payoffs lead to greater risk taking than occurs in the absence of such discussion and consensus. (b) The mechanism that underlies this group-induced shift toward greater risk taking consists of a diffusion or spreading of responsibility. Using risks and payoffs based on monetary gain and loss for problem solving performance, the above propositions received strong confirmation for male college Ss. The results of various experimental manipulations provided positive support for viewing diffusion of responsibility as the causal factor at work.
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With the emphasis placed upon possible aversive consequences of risk taking (actual physical pain coupled with monetary loss), group consensus achieved through discussion was displaced in the risky direction relative to the average of the group members' prior individual decisions. Subsequent private decisions also exhibited this shift toward greater risk taking. These results were explained in terms of a process of responsibility diffusion. This interpretation was further reinforced by the findings observed for other experimental conditions, which effectively ruled out the alternative possibilities that greater risk taking ensued from its social desirability in a male sample or derived from affiliative propensities in a context where group members expected to experience aversive consequences in the company of like-minded others.
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The recent finding that group decisions are more risky than individual decisions was confirmed. Significant relationships were found between this risk-taking behavior, both individually and as group behavior, with the dimensions of Neuroticism and Extroversion. Ss scoring high on Extroversion are riskier than other Ss in their initial scores. Shifts in the risky direction are a function of a group process, in which Ss scoring high on Neuroticism do not shift in the risky direction, whereas there is some emphasis for average scorers to shift most; low scorers take an intermediate position. With regard to Extroversion, the same pattern was observed; high and low scorers shift little if at all, and average scorers tend to shift most in the risky direction. A more detailed analysis of shift patterns indicates that Ss scoring high on Extroversion are the individuals doing the influencing; that Ss scoring high on Neuroticism are the least influential, and that Ss scoring average on Neuroticism are the most influenced. The results are consistent with previous conceptions of the traits of Neuroticism and Extroversion.
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The abstract for this document is available on CSA Illumina.To view the Abstract, click the Abstract button above the document title.
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Does group interaction lead to greater conservatism or to greater risk taking in decisions than would obtain were the decisions arrived at individually.–or is there an averaging effect? This question was investigated with a procedure in which the protagonist in each of 12 everyday life situations must choose between two courses of action, one of which involves considerably more risk than the other but also is much more rewarding if successful. The S must decide on the lowest level of probability for the success of the risky alternative that he would deem sufficient to warrant its choice. A total of 218 liberal arts university students participated in the study. In the experimental condition, the S s first arrived at individual decisions concerning each of the 12 situations; then, they were brought together in discussion groups of six with the request that they reach a group consensus on each decision; and afterward, they were asked to make all their decisions privately once again. Some S s also made private decisions yet another time two to six weeks later. The group members' judgments of one another's relative degrees of influence and of popularity within the group also were obtained. There were 14 all‐male and 14 all‐female groups. In the control condition, S s made their decisions individually each of two times with one week intervening, under instructions the second time that encouraged them to change rather than simply to recall their earlier decisions. It was found that (1) group decisions exhibit greater risk taking than appears in pre‐discussion individual decisions; (2) post‐discussion private decisions exhibit the same increase in risk taking as occurs in the group decisions; (3) the increase in risk taking resulting from the discussion process is still maintained after a subsequent period of two to six weeks has elapsed; (4) no shift in risk taking level occurs over time in the absence of the discussion process; and (5) degree of risk taking in pre‐discussion individual decisions and degree of judged influence within the group are positively related. Two interpretations of these findings were suggested, either or both of which may apply: (1) the knowledge that one's decisions are being made jointly with others leads to a diffusion of personal responsiblity, the outcome of which is an increased willingness to take risks; (2) high risk takers are more likely to take the initiative in social situations, with the result that they become more influential in the group.
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Several studies have shown that, when group and individual decisions involving risk are compared, groups decide on the greater risk. This experiment examines the hypothesis that the norms relevant to group decisions favor the risky alternatives and help produce these results. Two experimental problems designed to induce norms which would produce no difference between individual and group decisions, two problems in which the norms were throught to favor more conservative group decisions, and three control items are presented to 22 groups, with procedures replicating previous studies. As predicted, the relationship between group and individual decisions varies with the manipulation; and group decisions are riskier than individual decisions only on the control items. Data are also presented which suggest that the most influential group members tend to personally support the normatively strongest position. The nature of the relevant norms must be taken into account to understand the relationship between group and individual decisions involving risk.
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To determine the relative contribution of group interaction and information exchange to the risky-shift effect, female undergraduates were assigned either to interacting or to listening groups. Tape recordings of discussions of risk dilemmas were derived from the interacting groups. These taped discussions comprised the stimulus material for the listening groups. Thus, information was held fairly constant for interacting-listening pairs. Individual levels of risk taking measured prior to and after group discussion were used to assess the magnitude of the risky-shift effect. Although both group types manifested significant risky shifts, the interacting groups significantly exceeded the listening groups in extent of shift. We concluded that informational processes alone could not fully account for the risky-shift phenomenon.
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What situational elements can account for the enhanced risk taking typical of group relative to individual decision making? The three elements investigated were provision of information about the risk-taking levels favored by peers, with the implication of judgmental comparison; group discussion, with the affective involvement it can generate; and achievement of consensus, with its possible centering of commitment upon the group. The Ss were 360 undergraduates, 180 of each sex, randomly assigned within sex to one of three experimental conditions, all involving five-person groups. The group members in the respective conditions reached decisions concerning matters of risk through discussion to a consensus, through achievement of consensus without discussion, or through discussion without the requirement of consensus. For both male and female groups, discussion with or without consensus produced substantial shifts toward greater risk taking, while consensus without discussion yielded an averaging effect. Hence, the occurrence of group discussion is both necessary and sufficient for generating the risky shift effect.
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Previous research has shown that after discussing risk-taking problems, group members advocate riskier solutions to them than they did before the discussion. Such an increase may be due either to group processes occurring during the discussion (e.g., responsibility diffusion, interpersonal influence, etc.) or simply to increased familiarization with the problems. In the present experiment, the effects of group discussion and private study of the problems were compared. In both cases riskiness increased to a roughly equal extent, but no such increase followed private study of irrelevant materials. It is suggested that increased familiarization with the problems led to reduced cautiousness in dealing with them, which in turn led to the increase in riskiness.
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In a partial replication of an earlier study by Wallach and Kogan, group risk taking was examined under conditions of discussion and information exchange. Group size was also manipulated. Unlike the earlier findings, a risky shift occurred in the information exchange condition, where the subjects only revealed to one another the contents of their prior decisions. A stronger risky shift was found when discussion was permitted. Risky shift was more pronounced the larger the size of the group. The extent of risky shift on a decision problem was found to be positively related to the initial level of risk on that problem. The results appear to support Brown's “value of risk” theory of group risk taking more closely than any other theory.
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Research Program on the Management of Science and Technology.
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Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Industrial Management, 1962. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 64-66).
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Abstract: leaves [iii]-iv. Thesis (M.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1961. Includes bibliographical references (leaf 67). Microfilm.
Familiarization, group discussion, and risk taking Group decision making under risk of aversive consequences. JozLrnal of Perso?zality and Social Psychology
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NORDH#Y, F. Group interaction in decision-making under risk. Unpublished Master's thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Industrial Management, 1962. RABOW, J., FOWLER, F. J., BRADFORD, D. L., HOFELLER, M. A., AND SHIB~YA, Y. The role of social norms and leadership in risk-taking. Sociometry, 1966, 29, 16-27.
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Leadership attitudes and decisions involving risk A comparison of individual and group decisions involving risk. Un-published Master's thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of In-dustrial Management Components of group risk taking
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RIM, Y. Personality and group derisions involving risk. Psychological Record, 1964, 14, 3745. RIM, Y. Leadership attitudes and decisions involving risk. Personnel Pswhology, 1965, 18, 423430. STONER, J. A. F. A comparison of individual and group decisions involving risk. Un-published Master's thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of In-dustrial Management, 1961. TEQER, A. I., AND PRUITT, D. G. Components of group risk taking. Jo~(rnal of Kr-perimental Social Psychology, 1967,3, 189-205.
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The valid use of simulation results
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Effects of uncertainty on individual and group risk taking
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Hubbard, J. H., Effects of uncertainty on individual and group risk taking, unpublished Master's thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Industrial Management, 1963.
Risk taking as a function of the situation, the person, and the group
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Kogan, N. and M. A. Wallach, Risk taking as a function of the situation, the person, and the group, in G. Mandler New Directions in Psychology -III, Holt, Rinehart and Winston, New York, 1967a.