Article

# New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in Austria

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## Abstract

Increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources in heat and electricity production is a nationally and internationally acknowledged aim for sustainable development. In this context, the participatory development and appraisal of energy scenarios can be useful for enabling stakeholders to explore future energy options and for supporting the national policy discourse. The five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, which was developed as part of the ARTEMIS project, examines possible energy futures paths by combining (1) scenario development; (2) multi-criteria evaluation; and (3) a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. Economic, social, environmental and technological impacts as well as revealed social preferences are used for the ranking of the scenarios. Due to the paramount importance of bioenergy in Austria, special emphasis in the scenario development is put on the contribution of biomass. Two main bioenergy issues and their consideration in the ARTEMIS project are explicitly addressed in this paper: the cascadic utilisation of biomass resources and the demand for land area and land area conflicts. Overall, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied in practice and what insights policy-makers can gain from it. We also explore the methodology's limitations, especially regarding the effort required for participatory scenario building and the availability of stakeholders.

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... It became apparent that the discipline of choosing and inviting stakeholders was not an integrated part of the application of scenario methods. Some projects, e.g., MOUNTLAND, did not discuss how stakeholders were chosen at all (Madlener et al., 2007). Nevertheless, our review of articles that addressed the selection process revealed three typical approaches to selecting stakeholders (see Table 2). ...
... The ARTEMIS project asked stakeholders to prioritize among 16 scenarios developed by the research team. The stakeholders' role in this project was to prioritize among scenarios that depicted trends, challenges and technological solutions related to Austrian electricity and heat production from renewable energy sources (Madlener et al., 2007). The stakeholders also contributed criteria for ranking the scenarios (Madlener et al., 2007). ...
... The stakeholders' role in this project was to prioritize among scenarios that depicted trends, challenges and technological solutions related to Austrian electricity and heat production from renewable energy sources (Madlener et al., 2007). The stakeholders also contributed criteria for ranking the scenarios (Madlener et al., 2007). In some model-based scenario projects, the vetting function of the stakeholders included how the scenarios were modelled and the resulting impacts (van Berkel and Verburg 2012;Jessel and Jacobs 2005;Videira et al., 2009;Walz et al., 2007). ...
Article
Stakeholder inclusion is a core element of many scenario planning practices. The literature on this topic is vast and has documented that involving stakeholders in such processes is crucial to secure an impact on actual decision making and produce positive societal outcomes. However, few studies have homed in on more detailed questions about exactly why, how and to what ends engaging diverse stakeholders matters to scenario planning. This study of stakeholder inclusion in scenario planning for policy making reflects on four detailed key arenas. We first investigate the concept of stakeholders and how the scenario planning literature considers them. We explore the different types of relevant actors to include in a participatory scenario process, and we probe which methods are used to identify stakeholders to engage. Second, we investigate the role or function of stakeholders in the scenario planning process and find that stakeholder involvement has specific and detailed functions in particular phases of scenario planning. Third, we explore which methods are used to include stakeholders in scenario planning processes. Finally, in a synthesis across the study, we explore some of the key tensions and open questions related to including stakeholders in scenario planning processes.
... However, the majority of the national studies provided details on how many participants had been involved. None of them gave explicit justification for the number of participants involved, but having twenty-five participants appears to be the typical amount, with a number of studies having this amount [21][22][23][24] and several others having close to it [25][26][27][28]. ...
... A number of other studies used a more formal approach, opting for quantitative methods of data recording in the form of surveys and questionnaires [12,20,24,26,27,29,31,40,[42][43][44][76][77][78][79]. This was generally necessitated by the method being used, although there were a number of different purposes; ranking criteria as a prerequisite for MCDA [12,20,24,29,31,40,42,43,75], ranking options using a Likert scale [25,66,77,79,80], general opinion surveys [26,27,42,[76][77][78][79], data gathering [81] and evaluation [44,76,77]. ...
... A number of other studies used a more formal approach, opting for quantitative methods of data recording in the form of surveys and questionnaires [12,20,24,26,27,29,31,40,[42][43][44][76][77][78][79]. This was generally necessitated by the method being used, although there were a number of different purposes; ranking criteria as a prerequisite for MCDA [12,20,24,29,31,40,42,43,75], ranking options using a Likert scale [25,66,77,79,80], general opinion surveys [26,27,42,[76][77][78][79], data gathering [81] and evaluation [44,76,77]. The means by which the surveys were conducted varied from; face-to-face interactions as part of a workshop [42,66,77,78], or structured interview [12,20,24,29,42,44,75,81], telephone interview [27] and online surveys [12,26,31,40,43,76,77,79]. In a couple of cases the survey was the only form of participation from the public, and the results of the surveys were then discussed in 'expert' workshops [12,79]. ...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents a systematic review of participatory methods used in energy system modelling and planning. It draws on a compiled database of fifty-nine studies at a local, regional, and national level detailing analysis on full energy systems down to sectors, modes, and single technologies. The initial aim of the paper is to consolidate and present this growing body of literature, providing a clear understanding of which stakeholder groups have been engaged and what methods have been used to link stakeholder engagement with quantitative analysis. On from this, the progress to date in democratising key decision-making processes is discussed, reflecting on the benefits and challenges of a participatory approach, as well as highlighting gaps within the current body of literature. During the review, two differing spatial levels at subnational (cities, municipalities, or regions) and national scale emerged as separate groups for analysis. A clear distinction between the two groups was the motivation for involving stakeholders. At a subnational level, researchers hoping to build local capacity to bring about real-world change engaged with community representatives, whereas national level studies concerned with generating more impactful energy policy measures involved industry, policymaking, and academic experts. One key finding from the review was that only ten out of the fifty-nine studies reviewed noted some form of collaboration with non-academic stakeholders, and moreover 36% of studies involved just a single interaction with participants. This indicates a lack of progress to date in process democratisation within energy system modelling and planning research.
... Doukas et al. (2006) [62] applied PROMETHEE II to evaluate the sustainable technologies for electricity generation, according to the environmental, social, economic, and technological dimension of sustainable development. Madlener et al. (2007) [63] used PROMETHEE algorithm to assess five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, examined possible energy futures paths by combining scenario development; multi-criteria evaluation; and a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. ...
... Doukas et al. (2006) [62] applied PROMETHEE II to evaluate the sustainable technologies for electricity generation, according to the environmental, social, economic, and technological dimension of sustainable development. Madlener et al. (2007) [63] used PROMETHEE algorithm to assess five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, examined possible energy futures paths by combining scenario development; multi-criteria evaluation; and a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. ...
Article
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The European Union (EU) aims to prepare its strategy and infrastructure for further decarbonisation of its energy system in the longer term towards 2050. Recent political discussions and research interest focus on ways to accelerate the development and deployment of low-carbon technologies with respect to the targets set for 2030 and 2050. However, the diverse options available that are to be implemented, are policy sensitive and need careful comparative assessment. This paper presents a multi-criteria approach based on an extension of the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment of Evaluations (PROMETHEE) method for group decision-making that incorporates fuzzy set theory in order to evaluate alternative transformation pathways for achieving a sustainable energy system in EU. This assessment aims at providing a direction towards a most preferable pathway concept that should be taken into account by a future model-based analysis of the necessary transformation of our energy sector. The results obtained could support policymakers in drawing effective recommendations based on the findings. The added value of this analysis to policymakers is its contribution to plan climate and energy strategies towards a low-carbon transition pathway by using the information of this approach and prioritizing uncertainties through an environmental and energy perspective.
... In the past decade, FCM has been widely used as a tool for collective decision making [5], exploring complex behavioral systems and scenario building [6]- [8], and the study of stakeholder conflicts [9]- [11] in different fields, including medical [12]- [16], robotics [17], [18], and social and environmental research [19]- [21]. ...
... In the past decade, FCM has been widely used as a tool for collective decision making [5], exploring complex behavioral systems and scenario building [6]- [8], in different fields, including medical [12]- [16], robotics [17], [18], social and environmental research [19]- [21]. Most of these FCM studies build on data from interviews and workshops with experts and stakeholders that are specifically created for the purpose of the modeling study. ...
Article
Full-text available
Abstract—Cognitive mapping was introduced as a method to model complex systems that reflects how experts or stakeholders understand cause-and-effect relationships. Later, fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) combined cognitive mapping with artificial neural networks (ANN), resulting in the unique capacity to capture and use qualitative data to perform quantitative analysis and study system behavior in response to changes of system elements. However, when it comes to building FCM models from qualitative data, particularly from secondary data sources, guidance for modelers is scarce. This article introduces a step by step guideline for building FCM that not only deals with causal relationships but also offers techniques to adjust the inconsistencies, and tune the granularities through parent-child relationships. It also proposes two techniques, isolated graph analysis, and receiver-only-concept analysis to investigate the completeness of the final FCM and hypothesize new connections to fill the gaps.
... They used the Spearman correlation coefficient for the assessment. A lot of works are devoted to the choice of criteria weighting [39][40][41][42][43][44]. MCDM methods use both weighting criteria: the equal weights and the rank-order weights. ...
... In the study, equal weights of criteria were adopted i.e., w j = 1 n , n j=1 w j = 1. Many authors attach different weights to the criteria, perceiving it as an improvement in inference [39][40][41]. There are also those who believe that adopting equal weights of criteria may be the best solution according to the medical principle of primum non nocere [42][43][44]. ...
Article
Full-text available
One of the basic objectives of the European Union’s energy policy is to obtain and use energy in a sustainable way. Multiple-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods, in particular linear ordering based on the synthetic variable procedure, are used for comparative analyses of the level of energy sustainability. Despite many studies, the problem of choosing the optimal ordering method is still not fully resolved. This paper presents an original procedure that facilitates the selection of an effective method of the linear ordering of multi-feature objects for the evaluation of sustainable energy development of regions. What is understood as the effective ordering of regions is not only the effective ranking of objects but also their effective clustering. In order to obtain the best results of linear ordering, the authors put forward a multi-stage optimization of the selection of the method of ordering and normalization of diagnostic variables. Analysis of variance was used for the assessment of the object ranking quality, while for the assessment of the object clustering quality, an innovative approach was presented based on the analysis of the empirical distribution of the frequency of occurrence of the distance between objects. The linear ordering method, selected on the basis of the procedure proposed in the paper, was used to assess the energy sustainability of Polish regions. The calculations and analyses were carried out using the set of indicators developed by the authors. They characterize the sustainable energy development of regions in the social, economic, and environmental dimensions.
... Few studies have investigated the public preferences for low-to zero-carbon electricity 53 portfolios because they typically include substantial shares of fossil fuels and only several low-54 carbon alternatives, such as solar, wind, or nuclear power 13, 15-17 . 55 4 No fundamental change, such as the low-carbon transition, can occur without unintended 56 environmental consequences [18][19][20][21] . A solid understanding of the public preferences for low-carbon 57 transition pathways should thus account for the multi-dimensional impacts of this transition as 58 well. ...
... Technical expert communities sometimes assume that, if the 70 public was aware that all low-carbon technologies have negative environmental, health and 71 economic impacts, more negatively viewed technologies would become more acceptable. There 72 is evidence that multi-dimensional information about the pros and cons of low-carbon 73 technologies can induce making trade-offs 17,18,20,23,32,33 , but this has not been extensively tested. 74 ...
Article
Full-text available
Low-carbon transition is gaining momentum, but relatively little is known about the public preferences for low- and zero-carbon electricity portfolios given their environmental, health, and economic impacts. Decision science literature argues that conventional opinion surveys are limited for making strategic decisions because the elicited opinions may be distorted by misconceptions and awareness gaps that prevail in the public. We created an informed citizen panel (N=46) in Switzerland using technology factsheets, an interactive web-tool Riskmeter, and group discussions. We measured the evolution of the panel’s knowledge and preferences from initial (uninformed) to informed and longer-term views four weeks after. In terms of energy transition, our elicited technology and portfolio preferences show strong support for the low-carbon electricity sector transition, especially relying on hydropower, solar power, electricity savings and efficiency, and other renewable sources. As these informed preferences are structurally different from the futures considered by many energy experts, we argue that these preferences should also inform the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050’s implementation. In terms of methodologies in decision science, our factsheets, Riskmeter, and group discussions all proved effective in forming the preferences and improving knowledge, but we also intriguingly found that in a longer run the participants tended to revert back to their initial opinions. The latter finding opens up multiple new research questions on the longer-term effectiveness of informational tools and stability of informed preferences.
... In summary, there is a sort of communication channel between social and technological systems through which they exchange information on uses and needs [59,72,73,64,74,75,70]. This channel is partly formed by the research system [76,77,58]. In fact, the research system is increasingly focusing on energy issues, i.e. with calculations of local renewable energy potential or technological advance. ...
... siting), especially for the electrical part. The complexity of an energy system is recognized ( [76]: p. 6061) considering the interrelation between actors, processes, and networks and a new methodological approach is needed for overcoming it and including social and technological viewpoints. This paper proposes the background for an analysis of the characteristics of a territory and the dimensions and sub-dimensions that address choices, actions, and reactions of people to low carbon energy system features. ...
Article
Local population actions determine the level of renewability of local energy systems in the context of energy transition goals. Local population makes energy choices based on the availability of different territorial resources and limits, i.e. natural or environmental, technological, and social ones. The aim of this research is to identify the main dimensions and aspects of territory that can address its change towards energy transition. Indeed, energy system is not only technology matter. Socio-energy and territorial approaches (Osti, 2010; Jessop et al., 2008 [2]) underline the importance of features and relationships between the territorial systems: natural, technological, economic, legislative, social, and cultural ones. This research identifies substantial, procedural, and relational dimensions or characteristics of territorial energy systems based on the Conflict Management Triangle (European Forest Institute, 1996). 1084 journal papers have been selected based on specific criteria, allowing 168 papers to be analyzed using NVIVO11plus®. Following the qualitative and quantitative method applied for the systematized literature review, 15 dimensions and 41 sub-dimensions related to local population choices about energy transition have been selected. This is a scientific attempt to use a content analysis software (NVIVO11plus) in this scientific domain.
... In the past decade, FCM has been widely used as a tool for collective decision making [5], exploring complex behavioral systems and scenario building [6]- [8], and the study of stakeholder conflicts [9]- [11] in different fields, including medical [12]- [16], robotics [17], [18], and social and environmental research [19]- [21]. ...
... In the past decade, FCM has been widely used as a tool for collective decision making [5], exploring complex behavioral systems and scenario building [6]- [8], in different fields, including medical [12]- [16], robotics [17], [18], social and environmental research [19]- [21]. Most of these FCM studies build on data from interviews and workshops with experts and stakeholders that are specifically created for the purpose of the modeling study. ...
... Some other studies focus on supplying specific sectors with power from renewables in high penetrations. Case studies in which the power and heat sectors are coupled are listed by Madlener et al. [47], Mason et al. [48], Henning and Palzer [49], Nastasi and Lo Basso [50] and Palzer and Henning [51]. Examples for linking the power and transport sectors in such a way can be found by Robinius [52], Samsatli et al. [53], Garmsiri et al. [54], Rogge et al. [55], Qadrdan et al. [56], Teng et al. [57] and Kim and Moon [58]. ...
... In these studies, the intermittent behavior and spatial distribution of RESs is considered, to varying degrees. Studies that analyze renewable potential by comparing the average produced energy to its overall demand do not specifically consider temporal and spatial aspects [38,43,47,58]. Others take the intermittent behavior of renewables into account by including energy storage options, but they do not explicitly consider changes in the energy transport infrastructure. ...
Article
Full-text available
The usage of renewable energy sources (RESs) to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction goals requires a holistic transformation across all sectors. Due to the fluctuating nature of RESs, it is necessary to install more wind and photovoltaics (PVs) generation in terms of nominal power than would otherwise be required in order to ensure that the power demand can always be met. In a near fully RES-based energy system, there will be times when there is an inadequate conventional load to meet the overcapacity of RESs, which will lead to demand regularly being exceeded and thereby a surplus. One approach to making productive use of this surplus, which would lead to a holistic transformation of all sectors, is "sector coupling" (SC). This paper describes the general principles behind this concept and develops a working definition intended to be of utility to the international scientific community. Furthermore, a literature review provides an overview of relevant scientific papers on the topic. Due to the challenge of distinguishing between papers with or without SC, the approach adopted here takes the German context as a case study that can be applied to future reviews with an international focus. Finally, to evaluate the potential of SC, an analysis of the linking of the power and transport sectors on a worldwide, EU and German level has been conducted and is outlined here.
... Sustainability has attracted increased attention in recent years. In the energy supply sector in Europe in particular, sustainable energy production is one of the priorities of politics and administrations (Madlener, Kowalski & Stagl, 2007;IEA, 2003aIEA, , 2003b. This is in accordance with the planned reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, as announced as a political goal in the Kyoto Protocol (Grubb, Vrolijk & Brack, 1997). ...
... Most papers dealing with the effects of renewable energy resources in Austria do not consider the spatio-temporal dimension and the inherent dynamics of a forest fuels market (e.g. Arbeitsplattform Wald und Holz in Kärnten, 2009;Schwarzbauer & Stern, 2010;Madlener et al., 2007). In order to simulate the dynamics of the forest fuels market and consider space and time, this paper uses methods from agent-based modelling and simulation (ABM). ...
Article
Full-text available
Sustainability and renewable resources are attracting increased attention in the energy supply sector. This paper elaborates on the application of agent-based modelling methods to simulate forest fuel markets and supply chains. More precisely, it aims to simulate the market for wood chips for heating purposes, based on a sustainable forest growth and yield model, in conjunction with cognitive agents that act in the market. In the agent-based model, three types of agents are defined: forest owners (supply), biomass heating plant (demand), and 'traders', connecting supply and demand. Forest enterprises can decide on forest operations based on the state of the forest fuel market – e.g. considering the price for wood chips. Each biomass heating plant has an associated 'trader' that tries to fulfil the demand for forest biomass while minimizing the transport distances and the cost for the wood chips. The paper discusses the results of a simulation scenario in the Province of Carinthia, Austria. The simulation results are analysed with respect to space and time concerning biomass transport distance, transport patterns and remaining biomass stock.
... Additionally, the concept of including electric vehicles (EV) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) was discussed by Lund and Kempton in [18], where they identified that including EV and V2G to the system allows the inclusion of more wind electricity without surplus production, and thus reduces the carbon emissions. Descriptive renewable-focused energy scenarios developed in quantitative and qualitative terms for Austria was suggested by Madlener et al. in [19]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Sector coupling is one of the emerging topics in recent energy and climate change policy discussions. It can play a significant role in creating the pathway of a renewable-based energy system in the European energy sector. The North Sea region is very likely to play a key role in the transition to a sustainable energy system. Although different energy modelling approaches allow a versatile use, they lead to the problem of an unclear understanding of specific aspects of sector coupling, and the relevance of existing tools and techniques to model and analyze such a system. This paper is aimed at providing a comprehensive understanding of sector coupling and its incorporation in energy system models. Following a thorough literature review on sector coupling and energy system modelling, the paper outlines an approach to select an appropriate tool based on the specific rationales of the research. The paper also presents the open energy modelling framework, ‘Oemof’, as an open model tool to address the complex challenges of energy systems. The conclusions from the literature review provide a detailed understanding of the concept of sector coupling and indicate that it can be advantageous from the viewpoints of decarbonization, flexibility, network optimization, and system efficiency. To solve the coupling barriers, diversified techno-socio-economic circumstances should be taken into account through the use of model collaboration. It is also demonstrated how a list of appropriate tools for model collaboration can be picked up methodologically from an available wide range of models. Finally, ‘Oemof’ is hypothesized as a progressive tool to design a sector-coupled and renewable-based energy system in the North Sea region.
... However, for the energy related problems, the MCDA methods with the outranking approach, in particular the family of ELECTRE methods (ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalit edescribed in detail in Appendix A -Annex I), are very popular (Govindan and Jepsen, 2016). That is why, literature reports the application of MCDA using the ELECTRE III methods at the regional level (Beccali et al., 2003) and national level (Madlener et al., 2007) for sustainability and renewable energy deployment purposes. Further, it is also used in the energy planning of generation power plants and multi-source energy grids, as in the comparison of energy performance of different types of buildings (Govindan and Jepsen, 2016). ...
Article
The development of more sustainable energy systems is at the top of political agendas around the world. Sustainability is inherently a multi-criteria concept, thus it is appropriate to use multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). This methodology facilitates the intricate decision process by which decision makers must go through to agree on robust long-term alternatives for the sustainable development of existing municipal energy systems taking economic/financial, technical, social and environmental criteria into account. This work presents a methodology to help local authorities with the development of an Energy Action Plan (EAP) towards more sustainable municipal energy systems and, simultaneously, ease the related decision process, by using MCDA. The developed methodology was applied to the municipality of Odemira, Portugal. After several interactions with stakeholders, a set of 16 actions was chosen. Once applied the ELECTRE III method, public lighting, the conversion of the swimming pool water heaters for biomass fueled, the matching of bus and train schedules and the installation of solar photovoltaic systems on the municipal exposition park were the best-ranked actions to be adopted. Also, up to 3 kton of carbon dioxide emissions can be avoided per year if the EAP is implemented, being observed higher benefits at the residential and services sectors. The decision of implementing these actions now stands with the municipality, which should start by implementing the most preferred actions first, and then proceed with the implementation of the subsequent actions, according to financial and human resources availability.
... Safety to workers, society and people's life and environment must be assured while planning and developing an energy system. Safety in energy system can be evaluated based on their effect to persons, society or environment [94][95][96]43] Economical Attributes Particles matter: Particulate Matter is an air-borne particle mainly released from coal, oil, biomass and PV power plant. They are harmful and may cause various diseases including wheezing to asthma, migraine, cancer and heart attacks. ...
Article
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Fossil based oil, gas and coal reserves will exhaust in few decades and the accelerated demand for conventional energy have forced planners and policy makers to look for alternate sources of Energy. Renewable energies option serves as a solutions for a sustainable, environmentally friendly and long-term cost effective sources of energies to meet our ever increasing needs of energy. Renewable energy sites selection can be viewed as a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem. MCDM is a complex Decision Making (DM) tools as it involves both quantitative and qualitative criteria. In recent years, several MCDM techniques and approaches have been suggested to solve energy planning problems. The main objective of this paper is to systematically review MCDM techniques and approaches in sustainable and renewable energy planning problems. A review of more than 100 published papers based on MCDM analysis is studied and presented in this paper. Findings of this review paper confirm that MCDM techniques can assist stakeholders and decision makers in unravelling some of the uncertainties inherent in renewable energy decision making. Classification of methodology used, criteria selection and application area are summarized and presented.
... The transition towards a sustainable renewable energy supply calls for multi-criteria decision support to assess relevant technologies, since sustainability evaluations are often characterized by goal conflicts (Munda 2008;Madlener et al. 2007). Energy fuels are required for the provision of heat, electricity, and mobility (Martín-Gamboa et al. 2017;Strantzali and Aravossis 2016;Mardani et al. 2017), and numerous, alter-native pathways exist to provide such fuels (Bohanec et al. 2017). ...
Article
Full-text available
Investment and policy decisions in the context of sustainable development are classic application areas for multi-criteria decision analysis. Ranking various pathways, i.e. conversion routes, for biomass use in the energy sector is particularly challenging. Depending on how ecological, economic, and social criteria are weighed, a multi-criteria decision analysis can lead to significantly contrasting recommendations. In this paper, we present a decision support for eleven energy pathways using decision criteria drawn from all three sustainability dimensions—ecological, economic, and social. For the graphical presentation of the relatively large number of pathways and criteria weightings, we introduce a novel visualization approach that combines the results of both PROMETHEE I and II. This visualization approach permits stakeholders to quickly and intuitively gather insights about the result structure and the consequences of different input parameters, for instance different criteria weightings.
... (Kowalski et al., 2009) integrate scenario planning and MCDM and apply this to energy systems planning in Austria. However, they do not differentiate between decision alternatives and external uncertainties: They use the scenarios from scenario planning directly as decision alternatives (see also (Madlener et al., 2007)). This approach is consistent with the scenario concept "exploration of future conditions or environments", in the sense that the decision alternatives are defined by a range of possible outcomes. ...
Conference Paper
To reshape energy systems towards renewable energy resources, decision makers need to decide today on how to make the transition. Energy scenarios are widely used to guide decision making in this context. While considerable effort has been put into developing energy scenarios, researchers have pointed out three requirements for energy scenarios that are not fulfilled satisfactorily yet: The development and evaluation of energy scenarios should (1) incorporate the concept of sustainability, (2) provide decision support in a transparent way and (3) be replicable for other researchers. To meet these requirements, we combine different methodological approaches: story-and-simulation (SAS) scenarios, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM), information modeling and co-simulation. We show in this paper how the combination of these methods can lead to an integrated approach for sustainability evaluation of energy scenarios with automated information exchange. Our approach consists of a sustainability evaluation process (SEP) and an information model for modeling dependencies. The objectives are to guide decisions towards sustainable development of the energy sector and to make the scenario and decision support processes more transparent for both decision makers and researchers.
... Cetinay [38] used optimization method in the determining the wind energy potential and optimal wind farm located in Turkey. Madlener, et al. [39] defined the contribution of renewable energy sources in heat and electricity generation as a national and international scope for sustainable growth. They used PROMETHEE technique as a MCDM method and assessed five renewable energy situations in Austria for 2020. ...
Article
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In Turkey, current energy generations are not sufficient for the existing energy needs and besides, energy demand is expected to increase by 4–6 percent annually until 2023. Therefore, the government aims to increase the ratio of renewable energy resources (RES) in total installed capacity to 30 percent by 2023. By this date, total energy investments are expected to be approximately \$110 billion. Turkey is the fastest growing energy market among the OECD countries. Therefore, Turkey is an attractive market for energy companies and investors. At this stage, site selection and deciding appropriate RES are the most important feasibility parameters for investment. In this study, “Site Selection in Turkey” issue for RES (solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, biomass) is evaluated by the ELECTRE which is one of the Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. In addition, the reasons for choosing this method are explained according to the literature. The study emphasizes the importance of energy generation from renewable and sustainable sources and is concerned with improving the position of the country. The Turkish government offers many purchasing guarantees and high incentives, especially in the renewable energy sector. As a result of the analysis, the most suitable energy sources are presented according to the geography and energy potential of the regions. The study aims to inform energy firms and everyone related with RES about Turkey’s RES opportunities.
... Internal scenarios comprise only key factors from the decision field and thus can be influenced. In energy scenarios, internal scenarios can be alternative power system configurations, such as decentral or central (see, e.g., Madlener et al., 2007;Browne et al. (2010); Diakoulaki and Karangelis (2007) External scenarios comprise only key factors from outside of the decision field and thus cannot be influenced. For example, in a power system, power supply and demand always need to be balanced. ...
Article
The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance.
... However, the interconnectedness in the energy systems implies that multiple technologies need to be combined into mixes or portfolios. Some authors investigated citizen preferences for full mixes, including realistic resource or technical limitations [7][8][9][31][32][33][34]. While multiple studies found high citizen support for low-carbon alternatives, very few studies focused on low-and zero-carbon mixes [9,35]. The formation of citizen preferences for full technology mixes relies on balancing the pros and cons of multiple technologies, and previous research showed that citizens can make informed trade-offs when presented with the information and decision support [7,9,20,33,34,36]. ...
Article
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For a successful transition to low-carbon electricity supply, public support is essential. Citizen preferences are best understood in the process of informed citizen panels, where citizens are informed about the pros and cons of various electricity technologies and spend time reflecting on the trade-offs. We investigated how information about electricity technologies and their sustainability impacts can change citizens’ preferences and affect for the complete Swiss electricity mix 2035. The citizens received information as factsheets and, during workshops, discussed in groups and built their preferred electricity mix using an interactive tool. The informed citizen panel (N = 33) in the Swiss city of Geneva showed high support for domestic renewable technologies and end-use efficiency, as well as low support for net electricity import, natural gas, and nuclear power. Preferences and affect for unfamiliar technologies changed after receiving information and remained stable even in the longer term four weeks after. Preferences and affect for already familiar technologies, like hydropower, barely changed. The same procedure in the two Swiss cities of Geneva and Zurich (N = 46) enabled the identification of robust support for renewable technologies and efficiency with only minor context-specific differences.
... Additionally, the concept of including electric vehicles (EV) and Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) was discussed by Lund and Kempton in [18], where they identified that including EV and V2G to the system allows the inclusion of more wind electricity without surplus production, and thus reduces the carbon emissions. Descriptive renewable-focused energy scenarios developed in quantitative and qualitative terms for Austria was suggested by Madlener et al. in [19]. ...
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Sector coupling is one of the emerging topics in recent energy and climate change policy discussions. It can play a significant role in creating the pathway of a renewable-based energy system in the European energy sector. The North Sea region is very likely to play a key role in the transition to a sustainable energy system. Though different energy modelling approaches allow a versatile use, they lead to the problem of an unclear understanding of specific aspects of sector coupling, and the relevance of existing tools and techniques to model and analyze such a system. This paper is aimed at providing a comprehensive understanding of sector coupling and its incorporation in energy system models. Followed by a thorough literature review on sector coupling and energy system modelling, the paper outlines an approach to select an appropriate tool based on the specific rationales of the research. The paper also presents ‘Oemof’ as an open model tool to address the complex challenges of energy systems. The conclusions from the literature review provide a detailed understanding of the concept of sector coupling and indicate that it can be advantageous from the viewpoints of decarbonization, flexibility, network optimization, and system efficiency. To solve the coupling barriers, diversified techno-socio-economic circumstances should be taken into account through the use of model collaboration. It is also demonstrated how a list of appropriate tools for model collaboration can be picked up methodologically from an available wide range of models. Finally, ‘Oemof’ is hypothesized as a progressive tool to design a sector-coupled and renewable-based energy system in the North Sea region.
... PROMETHEE II applications have compared energy scenarios and focused on the ranking and evaluation of energy generation or exploitation alternatives at the regional and national levels. Madlener et al. considered five renewable energy scenarios for Austria [29]. The methodology investigates potential future energy pathways by combining scenario development, multi-criteria evaluation based on PROMETHEE II, and a national-level participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts [30]. ...
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A resilient, diversified, and efficient energy system, comprising multiple energy carriers and high-efficiency infrastructure, is the way to decarbonise the European economy in line with the Paris Agreement, the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and the various recovery plans after the COVID-19 pandemic period. To achieve these goals, a key role is played by the private construction sector, which can reduce economic and environmental impacts and accelerate the green transition. Nevertheless, while traditionally decision-making problems in large urban transformations were supported by economic assessment based on Life Cycle Thinking and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) approaches, these are now obsolete. Indeed, the sustainable neighbourhood paradigm requires the assessment of different aspects, considering both economic and extra-economic criteria, as well as different points of view, involving all stakeholders. In this context, the paper proposes a multi-stage assessment procedure that first investigates the energy performance, through a dynamic simulation model, and then the socioeconomic performance of regeneration operations at the neighbourhood scale, through a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The model based on the proposed Preference Ranking Organisation Method for Enrichment Evaluations II (PROMETHEE II) aims to support local decision-makers (DMs) in choosing which retrofit operations 2 to implement and finance. The methodology was applied to a real-world case study in Turin (Italy), where various sustainable measures were ranked using multiple criteria to determine the best transformation scenario.
... Instead of trying to predict the future, scenarios are possible descriptions of what the future might look like. Scenario development (or "analysis" or scenario planning) is a systematic method to creatively think about dynamic, complex and uncertain futures, and identify strategies to prepare for a range of possible outcomes [16,17]. The scenarios could focus on identifying "favorable futures" in which people wish to work or "unfavorable futures" that people might want to avoid or at least be prepared to face them. ...
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Preparing a plan for reaction to a grave emergency is a significant first stage in disaster management. A group of experts can do such preparation. Best results are obtained with group members having diverse backgrounds and access to different relevant data. The output of this stage should be a plan as comprehensive as possible, taking into account various perspectives. The group can organize itself as a collaborative decision-making team with a process cycle involving modeling the process, defining the objectives of the decision outcome, gathering data, generating options and evaluating them according to the defined objectives. The meeting participants may have their own evidences concerning people’s location at the beginning of the emergency and assumptions about people’s reactions once it occurs. Geographical information is typically crucial for the plan, because the plan must be based on the location of the safe areas, the distances to move people, the connecting roads or other evacuation links, the ease of movement of the rescue personnel, and other geography-based considerations. The paper deals with this scenario and it introduces a computer tool intended to support the experts to prepare the plan by incorporating the various viewpoints and data. The group participants should be able to generate, visualize and compare the outcomes of their contributions. The proposal is complemented with an example of use: it is a real case simulation in the event of a tsunami following an earthquake at a certain urban location.
... We can use thermodynamics to assess how effectively and efficiently a renewable DE system works. Technical criteria, such as technical maturity, safety, reliability and self-sufficiency, should be primarily considered in the evaluation (Mamlook et al., 2001;Yu et al., 2006;Madlener et al., 2007;Chatzimouratidis and Pilavachi, 2008;Wang et al., 2009;Twidell and Weir, 2015). ...
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Energy development concerns not only the development of renewable energies but also the shift from centralised to clean, decentralised power generation. The development of decentralised energy (DE) is a core part of the energy and economic strategies being adopted around the world that drives the progress toward a highly sustainable future. This paper reviews the concepts, development status, trends, benefits and challenges of DE systems and analyses the existing models and methods for assessing the performance of these systems. A hierarchical decision model for evaluating the performance of DE systems is also constructed based on the framework of multiple criteria decision analysis, which considers the identification, definition and assessment grade of decision criteria. The evidential reasoning approach is applied to aggregate assessment information in a case study of the implementation of an intelligent decision system. Sensitivity and trade-off analyses are also conducted to show how the proposed model can be used to support decision making in DE systems.
... Also, different combinations and pathways are discussed in the literature: The electricity sector can be connected to the heat (cf. [27][28][29][30][31]) and mobility (see for example [32][33][34][35][36][37]) sector or both (cf. [8,38] Fig. 2 illustrates the effects on a systemic level using an energy flow chart as introduced in Section 2.1. ...
Article
While progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is notable in many national power sectors, other sectors such as transportation and often heating are lagging behind. One strategy to propagate greenhouse gas emission reductions from the power sector to other sectors is sector coupling. Against this backdrop, we ask the following two questions: (1) To what extent does demand for(useful and final) energy match the supply of renewable energy sources in the dimensions of time and space? (2) What impacts of sector coupling pathways on future infrastructure requirements can be derived from applying spatio-temporal analyses? For our analyses, we assume a scenario with 95% greenhouse gas emission reductions for Germany as a case study targeted by the government for 2050. We choose a consumer-driven approach, analyzing the energy value chain backward from consumption to supply for the different sector coupling technologies. From useful energy consumption, we derive final energy demand patterns in high temporal, sectoral, and regional resolution. We then evaluate implications for different placement strategies of renewable energy expansion. The key contributions of our study are twofold: Firstly, we introduce a generalizable and transferable consumer-driven method for holistic analyses of energy systems with high degrees of sector coupling. Secondly, we provide policy recommendations from our results regarding effective and efficient strategies for integrating renewable energy sources into present energy systems.
... During the realization of semi-structured interviews, interviewees were asked to rank the low-carbon goals indicated in Table 1 in ascending order (from the most important to the least important) and comment on them. To facilitate comparisons among different stakeholder's rankings, we used a quantitative preference ranking method called the "Revised Simos" procedure (Figueira & Roy, 2002), which allows obtaining ordinal weights which indicate the importance that each interviewee attach to the items analyzed in the ranking in a scale from 0 (not important) to 1 (very important) (Garmendia & Gamboa, 2012;Kowalski, Stagl, Madlener, & Omann, 2009;Madlener, Kowalski, & Stagl, 2007). The rankings obtained were then discussed with each interviewee and the conversation audio-recorded. ...
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Governments and civil society are increasingly aware that the decarbonization of energy systems needs to be aligned with justice principles of recognition, distribution, and process. This paper establishes a conceptual linkage between “sustainable development”, “low‐carbon energy transitions” and “energy justice” and examines social priorities to address peoples' competing priorities associated with low‐carbon energy interventions. By analyzing a renewable energy project in Vietnam as a case study, the paper shows that linking social priorities to energy justice provides a useful contribution for energy policy makers toward a better understanding of the multidimensional and complex aspects of low‐carbon energy transitions, and how different segments of society prioritize and perceive them for the achievement of socially just energy decisions.
... The analysis of these works allowed us to identify that they cover different approaches within MIS, as presented in the "Purpose" column. As examples, Bovea and Pérez-Belis (2012), Patel et al. (2012) and Nielsen et al. (2016) carried out studies to evaluate the product development process; Zeng et al. (2007) and Chan and Chan (2004) developed studies to selection of projects, suppliers or resources; Doukas et al. (2007) and Madlener et al. (2007) presented research for sustainable innovation management decision with studies of new energy possibilities. ...
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Sustainable innovation has gained prominence in recent years, due to the demands imposed by global competition, social pressures and the needs of consumers and the environment. Decision-making processes about sustainable innovation are complex and often require auxiliary instruments to reduce uncertainties. Multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods can be a useful tool to make these kinds of decisions more assertive. This article presents the main discussions and theoretical approaches through bibliometrics on the application of MCDA methods in the context of sustainable innovations. We used the R package Bibliometrix library to organize the data of the publications and perform the processing for the generated analyzes. The bibliometric analysis provided an overview about the use of MCDA in sustainable innovations (MIS) and it presents citation analysis; identification of central authors through co-citation analysis; main topics, conceptual structure and thematic evolution of the literature by co-word analysis. As main results, we identified the main trends in MIS: there has been a substantial increase in publications on this theme, and the most explored focuses are “product development, production and distribution” and “environmental or social impact assessment” and there is an opportunity to further explore the focuses of “evaluation or selection of projects, suppliers or resources”, “product life cycle management or assessment” and “definition of decision criteria and standards for sustainable innovation performance”. In addition, several MCDA tools have been successfully used for studies of sustainable innovations, demonstrating that there is no preferable method to use for a given focus.
... In a few cases, social, socio-technical, or distributive indicators (which often have to be analyzed in a non-model-based way) are addressed [21,27,28]. Studies either use numeric calculation models for indicator analyses [20,[29][30][31] or qualitative, expert-, or stakeholderbased procedures [22,32,33], whereas combined approaches hardly exist. ...
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Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.
... In this endeavor, citizens often face substantial impediments in their efforts to be gain influence in energy policymaking. In order to overcome such limitations, participatory energy planning is becoming increasingly common [62,63]. However, long-term engagement of citizens was difficult to replicate in a Thailand-wide exercise. ...
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Public participation is an increasingly common pathway for democratizing policymaking, but it is often executed in only symbolic and perfunctory ways. To reach its full potential as a method for empowering society in the policymaking process, public participation should foremost be viewed as legitimate by participants. This article empirically examines public participation through three types of legitimacy – representative, process, and influence – that give the exercise democratic effect. The case context, energy policy in northern Thailand as part of the country’s regional energy development plan, is an instructive example of public participation that has been newly introduced into a policy system characterized by top-down centralization. This study documents the degree to which a ‘design thinking’ approach for participatory mechanisms helps produce policy input that reflects the concerns and ambitions of local stakeholders. The findings offer lessons for how legitimacy can be a pathway for public participation to support energy democracy.
... Based on the experience gained in the project ''ARTEMIS'' (see Kowalski et al., 2006Kowalski et al., , 2009Madlener et al., 2007, www.projec t-artemis.net), scenarios until 2020 were defined to specify how an increased share of renewable energy could look like. ...
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This study performs a model-based multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for supporting policy makers in Greece, in designing energy-efficiency policies through the selection of the most effective measures, towards sustainable development. The impact assessment of energy-efficiency measures is based on their macroeconomic, environmental and social implications. Such an evaluation of a quite large number of energy-efficiency measures, regarding both the building and the transport sector and based also on the combination of PROMETHEE and SIMOS methods while performing a sensitivity analysis, is not available in the international literature. The analysis deploys three energy-efficiency co-benefits, derived from energy models and input-output analysis, as well as the cost-effectiveness and the technical feasibility of each measure. This combination of MCDA with input-output analysis is another innovation of the study. The final ranking revealed that, generally, measures in buildings are more effective than those in transportation, while significant differentiations between residential and commercial buildings emerged.
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Over the course of three to four decades, most well-established companies lose their dominating position in the market or fail entirely. Their failure occurs even though they have resources for sensing shifting market trends, skills and assets to develop next-generation technologies, and the financial means to fill skill gaps and afford risky investments. Nevertheless, incumbents obviously find it very difficult to invest in innovation that takes attention and resources away from a highly successful core business. A solution to this “innovator’s dilemma” is the concept of “organizational ambidexterity”, which has garnered considerable attention among researchers in organization and innovation. According to empirical findings and emergent theory, companies can improve their financial performance and ensure their long-term survival by balancing their innovation activities, so that they are equally focused on exploratory (discontinuous) and exploitative (incremental, continuous) innovations. But how can such a balance be achieved? The literature on the organizational theory and related fields (product innovation, knowledge management, creativity, etc.) identifies more than 300 contributing factors to innovation and ambidexterity: many are interdependent so that their impacts compound or cancel each other. Moreover, for many factors, there is limited empirical data and the size of impacts is unknown. To understand which managerial actions lead to ambidexterity, this dissertation develops a novel approach to the study and analysis of complex casual systems with high uncertainty: exploratory fuzzy cognitive mapping. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) is a semi-quantitative system modeling and simulation technique. It is used to represent qualitative information about complex systems as networks of casual relationships that can be studied computationally. Exploratory modeling and analysis (EMA) is a new approach to modeling and simulation of complex systems when there is high uncertainty about the structural properties of the system. This work is the first to combine both approaches. The work makes several contributions: First, it shows that only a small fraction of management interventions will actually lead to ambidexterity while most will, at best, improve one type of innovation at the expense of the other. Second, it provides a simulation tool to management researchers and practitioners that allows them to test ideas for improving ambidexterity against a model that reflects our current collective knowledge about innovation. And third, it develops a range of techniques (and software code) for exploratory FCM modeling, such as methods for transforming qualitative data to FCM, for exploratory simulation of large and complex FCM models, and for data visualization. They can be utilized to study other similarly complex and uncertain systems.
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Increase in use of renewable energy such as solar and wind has created challenges in balancing load. Renewable energy intermittency can be addressed with different solutions and technologies. Using Electric Energy Storage (EES) has been an approach which has been studied extensively in the recent years. This paper reviews the storage technologies leveraging both technical papers on technologies as well as other reviews of such technologies done by other researchers. The contribution of this paper is in two areas. First the use of a case study demonstrates how different approaches can address different challenges. Second contribution is the review of evaluation factors and methods of such technologies resulting in a proposed framework.
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Discussions on the energy transition preceded the question of how to solve conflicts on the construction of the corresponding infrastructure. These conflicts regularly turn into wicked problems. To see how such conflicts might be solved in a participatory, democratic and sustainable fashion, we analysed six cases on wind power projects in the region of Lower Austria for their participatory qualities. Most of them turned out not to have met criteria of contemporary democratic theory. Our conclusion is that in order to live up to these demands, discussion processes have to be much more open, inclusive and discursive than they are.
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Renewable energy sources (RESs) have become increasingly significant in optimising the energy structure, protecting the ecological environment, and achieving sustainable economic and social developments. The residential sector is one of the major energy consumption industries. Choosing an appropriate RES technology for a residential building can be regarded as a multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) problem, and the preferences of inhabitants regarding the renewable energy alternatives of a residential building should be considered. However, the previous literature on MCGDM did not consider the social relationships between experts. To address these challenges, we propose a cognitive fuzzy social participatory allocation network (SPAN) method considering the empathetic preferences (EPs) of experts. The cognitive fuzzy set is used by experts to depict fuzzy and uncertain information. Given that the traditional SPAN method is easily influenced by personal self-evaluations when aggregating evaluation information, we incorporate the traditional SPAN method with the EPs of experts to make the decision results more objective. A case study concerning the evaluation of RES technologies is presented to verify the practicability of the proposed model. The method is efficient, since the economic, environmental, technological, and social factors regarding the selection of RES technologies for residential buildings are included.
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In today's competitive dynamic world/markets, providing a desirable framework for exploring future perspectives is a crucial challenge to support robust decision making and proper policy making process. This research proposes a novel framework that develops plausible future energy scenarios through the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique. As a new method in scenario planning, FCM attempts to present a set of rational, reliable and credible scenarios together with analyzing dynamic behaviors of parameters. The integrated approach encompasses STEEP analysis to identify parameters, Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) to determine key drivers, Morphological analysis for scenario selection, and FCM to develop semi- quantitative scenarios. The new proposed scenario development approach brings the benefits of both quantitative and qualitative analysis together, which is not limited to the investigation of few pre-defined scenario drivers. As a research case, the proposed methodology was examined to detect plausible trends for Iran's oil production in the post-sanction era. The implemented FCM simulations indicated that in three scenarios oil production rises, as growth would be significant for the first two. The fourth projection is the most pessimistic future that can be imagined in the post-sanction era where the country faces massive investment backlogs.
Chapter
The selection among renewable energy alternatives is a fuzzy multicriteria problem with many conflicting criteria under uncertainty. In many decision-making problems, the Decision Makers (DM) define their preference in linguistic form since it is relatively difficult to provide exact numerical values during the evaluation of alternatives. Therefore, in many studies, fuzzy logic is successfully used to model this kind of uncertainty. In this chapter, the authors try to capture this uncertainty by using interval type-2 fuzzy sets and hesitant fuzzy sets. They propose a fuzzy multicriteria method for the evaluation of renewable energy alternatives, in which the priority weights of the criteria are determined by interval type-2 fuzzy AHP, and the alternatives are ranked using hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS. A case study is also given.
Chapter
The current financial and economic crisis, as well as the wider socioeconomic and environmental pressures, including climate change among others, put seriously into question the traditional development patterns. This is particularly true for the local and regional authorities, who face a number of challenges as regards growth, jobs and sustainability. These pressures create high expectations for coordinated actions and holistic interventions to address comprehensively the problems toward a competitive economy. In this context, this Chapter describes the main issues of the decision making in local energy planning. The policy context and relevant initiatives are outlined. A detailed review of existing methodologies for local energy planning, as well as standard techniques and methods (participatory approach, aspiration level, multi-criteria decision support, robustness analysis, indicator-based assessment frameworks) are presented. The need to support the local and regional authorities in the decision-making process for the development, implementation and monitoring of their Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plans, especially within the framework of the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy (a first-of-its-kind global initiative of cities and towns) is highlighted.
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Sustainable development demands no depletion of energy resources that have lower environmental impact, that are available at reasonable costs and that do not have negative social impacts. Because of the multi-dimensionality of this sustainable goal multi – criteria methods have become popular in sustainable decision-making processes. In this paper, we have developed a model for decision makers to rank small hydropower projects according to multiple criteria. The proposed model ranks projects based on technical, economic, social, and environmental criteria. The model is supported by two multi-criteria decision analysis methods: PROMETHEE (to rank projects) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (to determine the weights of main criteria). It is observed that the most important criteria are found to be the investment safety, legal obstacles and the amount of flow and the flow pattern. The proposed model is successfully tested on the example of 24 small hydropower plants. Highest ranked projects are those were criterion “annual production” was the highest and with the lowest scores in environmental aspect criteria. The presented model can give objective standpoint to decision makers, energy policies designers and energy planners.
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For decades, energy has prevailed as a critical policymaking concern at national and international levels. Today, energy systems, the global markets and their trends are more complex, and it is crucial for any nation or organization which seeks to grow its share in the energy markets to develop insights about potential future trends and changes. Although Iran has one the largest natural gas reserves in the world, it currently contributes little to international market supply and recently has targeted the enhancement of its role in the market. To achieve this, it must carefully consider the complexity of existing global energy markets and how they are likely to evolve in the future. Here, we develop and discuss a novel scenario synthesizing model to address the inherent uncertainty of the energy future. The model starts with a structured environmental analysis step to establish the meaningful driving forces and other influences on the natural gas global markets. The influences identified are then categorized under four classes: critical uncertainties, driving forces, descriptive, and neutral (which are removed from the study). Applying a simulation-based method, a layered scenario development model is constructed to develop plausible scenarios for two feature classes: critical uncertainties and driving forces. The developed scenarios are then combined to generate possible scenario streams. A third layer simulation is applied to generate final plausible scenarios. As a final step, scenarios are clustered to define relatively independent scenario streams, and each is discussed using descriptive features. Keywords: Natural gas export Scenario development Scenario simulation Global energy market Iran
Article
Purpose The aim of this paper is to introduce a newly developed multi-criteria analysis for the comparison of two grid expansion alternatives, conventional and voltage-regulated distribution transformer. The case study comprises environmental, economic, technical and social aspects. Design/methodology/approach The newly developed method decision condition Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (DC-PROMETHEE) combines scenario planning with the multi-attribute decision-making method PROMETHEE. DC-PROMETHEE supports the decision-maker to evaluate the total potential of an alternative considering a large number of decision conditions. The calculated performance indicator supports the decision-maker to select the best alternative. Findings The voltage-regulated distribution transformer shows a high overall potential in the present case study. This leads to the recommendation to the investigated distribution system operator to include the voltage-regulated distribution transformers as a grid expansion measure. Practical implications The DC-PROMETHEE can be applied to other distribution system operators by considering their individual grid topology and preferences. Other fields of application are infrastructure investments in the service area, in which expansion alternatives are evaluated in a large number of decision conditions. Examples include telecommunication, gas supply, water supply, sewage and rail networks. Originality/value This paper develops the DC-PROMETHEE approach. The DC-PROMETHEE enables the multi-criteria evaluation of a few alternatives in a large number of decision conditions.
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Sustainable electricity generation is at the pole position for global sustainable development. The purpose of this research is to develop a systematic framework for assessing sustainability of different electricity generation technologies, and present its application on Pakistan, which is a region with research gaps. Hydro and oil with a sustainability impact score of 0.59 and 0.39, respectively, were identified as the top and bottom sustainability performers. Gas, solar PV, wind, and coal scored 0.54, 0.52, 0.52, and 0.42, respectively. Gas is suggested as a bridging fuel for transition to a 100% renewable energy scenario by 2050. Contributions include formulation of a holistic electric generation sustainability assessment approach, and a sustainable transition pathway for Pakistan region to guide future policy making.
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Land use, woodland and forestry policy continues to evolve in response to unfolding economic, social and environmental challenges and opportunities. Concerns about integration across the stakeholder landscape impacting delivery and implementation of policy are common. Competing public and private sector stakeholder goals, narratives and actions are problematic. Developing insights from a recent case study, we uncover fragmentation in narratives, tensions in priorities, and misunderstandings at multiple levels between stakeholders. We identify the corrective influence of ‘dissociative jolts’ to trigger stakeholder's self-realisation of the extent of their unintentionally diverse interpretations of policy. These ‘dissociative jolts’ moments triggered open discussion, debate and reflexive questioning by the participants, enabling them to constructively contest their differences. In doing so, the participants were able to challenge and deconstruct their assumptions, reconstruct and develop new, shared understanding without trauma or denial. The structured mechanisms and formalisms of the intuitive-logics scenario planning approach provided a psychologically safe space with openness and equality of input to surface, explore, question and defragment stakeholder assumptions and narratives. The outcome of this defragmentation process was the collective recognition of failure, if the situation did not change, the dissolution of observed tensions conflicts and dilemmas, and the negotiated agreement for future action by the diverse stakeholder group.
Article
This paper presents an evaluation of four energy transition scenarios under consideration of multiple stakeholder opinions. We construct a multi-criteria group decision model that applies Value-Focused Thinking to construct a holistic objective system and uses Multi-Attribute Utility Theory to evaluate the energy transition scenarios. Although the individual scenario evaluations show that the opinions of the stakeholders towards a sustainable energy transition differ largely, we are able to identify three main strands of opinions among the considered stakeholders. By bundling the stakeholder interests by employing a k-means clustering technique, we derive detailed policy recommendations for a sustainable energy transition. For the case of Germany, these are to reduce GHG and pollutant emissions and at the same time enable citizens’ participation, limit the visual impact on landscapes, and ensuring internationally comparable energy-related political frameworks for the economy. For the case of a sustainable energy transition in Germany, we find that the stakeholders considered prefer either the highly ambitious Climate Protection scenario (Scenario B) or the Pan-European scenario (Scenario C). The main novelties of the study are that stakeholders are included in every step of the decision-making process and that very comprehensive energy transition scenarios, comprising the electricity, transport, heat, and industry sectors, are considered.
Article
Energy consumption increases all over the world as a result of industrialization in recent years. In this context, it has become important to meet increasing energy demand. It is significant to find alternative energy sources because of limited nonrenewable energy sources such as coal, petroleum, and natural gas. At this point, renewable energy sources have an important role to meet energy requirement. As a result, decision and policy making for energy is completely critical issue for countries. Various technical, economic, environmental, and social criteria are used to solve energy policy and decision-making problems such as evaluation of energy projects, selection among energy alternatives, power plant site selection, and determining energy policy. Multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) methods are used as effective tools to help decision makers while solving energy problems. There are a large number of studies including articles, conference papers, and book chapters, which examine energy problems by using MCDM methods in the literature. Therefore, analyzing these studies according to different features such as publication year, MCDM method, document type, statistical analyses, country, and published journal can be beneficial for leading researchers who study in energy decision-making field. In this study, published papers, which use traditional MCDM methods to handle energy problems, are examined systematically. By the way, it is aimed to lead to researchers regarding MCDM methods which are utilized in energy applications. It also conducted some statistical analyses to obtain trends between years and MCDM methods. Besides, recent developments in energy field are presented through this comprehensive literature review.
Chapter
Renewable energy is essential for the world economy and the current and future generations’ welfare, and it contributes in a balanced way to attain the general goal of energy security and environmental protection. However, there are also challenges and barriers to the deployment of renewable energy generation, distribution and consumption, including technical, economic, cultural and financial challenges. In order to understand and overcome the challenges and barriers of promoting the growth of renewable energy, it is important to model, analyse and assess the cost-effectiveness, and societal and environmental impact of various renewable energy solutions systemically. This chapter aims to review relevant performance modelling, impact assessment and decision analysis techniques for renewable energy systems.
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This paper presents an evaluation of the provision of Ecosystem Services (ES). The analysis is based on the design of a framework suitable to be translated into a multi-criteria evaluation process, followed by empirical testing. It focuses on the different categories of ES and applies a set of non-overlapping indicators available from existing statistical sources. The framework is applied in a traditional cultural landscape, the Province of Ferrara, situated in the Emilia-Romagna region of Italy. To develop an applicable framework, we have chosen a set of ES indicators from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. According to the results and based on the indicators used in each category, the provision of cultural and provisioning services is high in all of the municipalities, while there is greater diversity in the provision of regulating and supporting services. A key challenge in our analysis was related to the lack of information on the actual provision of ES at the municipality level, which led to a significant use of proxy indicators. Use of improved datasets, explicit consideration of policy scenarios and accounting for local priorities about ES provision have been identified as the most relevant avenues for future research in this area.
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The paper presents an agent‐based modeling and simulation approach to model the forest fuel supply chain for heating purposes (i.e., heating plants). The paper focuses on the simulation of the processes of timber harvesting by forest enterprises and the competition of heating plants for the limited resource of wood chips. In particular, the work identifies different stakeholders having an adaptive behavior—with respect to the overall market conditions and timber prices. The agent‐based model developed here—called SimFoMa—uses three types of agents—forest enterprises, heating plants, and traders. The agents are interacting in an environment that has rich information on the forests and road network. The SimFoMa model is applied to a test area, the province of Carinthia, Austria. We defined six different simulation scenarios that cover different market situations—from increasing timber prices, volatile market conditions, or decreasing market conditions—and evaluated the harvest patterns, transport distances and the forest itself. The paper utilizes the agent‐based modeling methodology to model the agent's adaptive behavior of the forest fuel supply chain and to model the competition of heating plants for forest fuels. To evaluate this phenomena we mainly analyze transport distances of the simulation runs. For the test area of Carinthia, the experiments show that the behavior of small forest owners influences the supply of forest fuels. Timber prices not meeting the expectations of small forest owners might not motivate them to produce timber and forest fuels. On the long run the overall forest fuel supply does not meet the demand in the test area Carinthia—hence it relies on biomass imports. Furthermore, we witnessed increasing transport distances from harvest site to heating plant. Recommendations for Resource Managers • The results of the spatial Agent‐based simulation of the forest fuel market with agents competing for the limited resource forest biomass show that transport distances for forest fuels can vary and may increase over time. Hence, the planning of the forest fuels supply and the respective transport distances is crucial to reduce the carbon footprint of the timber for heating purposes. • As small forest owners produce timber on a more irregular basis (based on the price in the market), the motivation of small forest owners is crucial for the steady supply of biomass for heating purposes—for the case of Carinthia. • In the long run it is not possible to fulfill the demand of biomass for heating purposes for Carinthia, without imports of timber. Again, crucial is the motivation of small forest owners to produce timber.
Chapter
Energy policy making is a complex, multidisciplinary process that usually requires the assessment of a large number of factors. Consequently, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, which is a sub-discipline of Operational Research, has long been employed as an approach to addressing problems of this domain. This paper aims to explore how the preference disaggregation-aggregation paradigm, which infers a preference model from given global preferences on a set of reference alternatives, can support decision making in energy policy design and implementation. In this direction, a detailed literature review of multicriteria analysis applications in this domain is conducted, in which a knowledge gap regarding preference disaggregation approaches can be observed. The UTASTAR model is, then, described in detail and implemented in an energy policy application regarding the potential development of clean electricity projects through the cooperation between European Union member states and 22 neighbouring countries with which the Union has already established ties towards economic and energy market integration. The results of the study show that European countries outside the Union feature better potential for hosting clean energy projects compared to Middle East and North African countries; finally, the analysis suggests that UTASTAR can also provide concrete insight into the criteria weighting dynamics, as inferred by the global preferences of the decision makers.
Chapter
This chapter presents a review of multi criteria decision models used in the energy sector and demonstrates application through the case of geothermal energy. The case is taken from Oregon which is located in teh pacific northwest region of the US. Experts are used to determine the criteria what is important for this application and the region.
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An iterative procedure is suggested to evaluate and improve the energy system design. The procedure considers the information deriving from complementary evaluation approaches, each applied within its appropriate time-space window of interest: (a) Process-related, local-scale methods (Energy, Exergy and Thermoeconomic analyses); (b) Environmental assessment methods (Impact Assessment, Emergy Synthesis); (c) Economic methods (Micro- and Macro-Economic and Externality Evaluations). Process-related methods are applied first, in order to provide local-scale performance indicators able to suggest optimization procedures from a user-side point of view. Environmental evaluation approaches are then used to judge the overall environmental quality of the design, in the largest regional and biosphere scales. Finally, micro- and macro-economic evaluation approaches are applied in order to ascertain the soundness of the proposed solution as far as the economic return on the investment as well as global benefits to the Society are concerned. New choices for the design configuration and parameters may be suggested by implementing the iterative procedure. A cogeneration system working in a town of Northern Italy is used as a case study: starting from the present configuration of the plant, modifications are suggested and evaluated, thus identifying the way for improving the performance under various viewpoints. A proposal for plant transformation from Steam Cycle to Combined Cycle is suggested, capable of increasing the plant electric power from 136 to 332MWe, increasing the energy efficiency from 60 to 63%, increasing the exergy efficiency from 37 to 49%, and decreasing the overall demand for environmental support (transformity) from 1.84×105 to 1.27×105seJ/J. The paper points out several benefits and bottlenecks of the existing plant and of the proposed solutions.
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Work in Progress 1. Motivation und zentrale Fragestellung Um eine nachhaltige Energieversorgung zu gewährleisten, ist die österreichische Energiepolitik neben der Energieeffizienz auch auf die kontinuierliche Steigerung erneuerbarer Energieträger gerichtet. Die aktive Berücksichtigung erneuerbarer Energietechnologien in politischen Strategien (z.B. in der österreichischen Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie und der österreichischen Klimastrategie) weist auf ihre wichtige Rolle zur Erreichung einer nachhaltigen Energieversorgung als auch auf ihr Potential zur Eindämmung von Treibhausgasen hin. Daher hat die österreichische Bundesregierung das ehrgeizige Vorhaben formuliert, den Anteil der erneuerbaren Energieträger von 23 % im Jahr 2004 auf 45 % im Jahr 2020 zu verdoppeln (BMLFUW, 2006). Im Zuge dieser angestrebten Verdopplung ist es wichtig, die erwarteten Auswirkungen der verschiedenen erneuerbaren Energietechnologien (z.B. feste Biomasse, Biogas, Windenergie, Solarthermie, Photovoltaik) auf Umwelt, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft quantitativ abzuschätzen. Das EdZ-Projekt "Erneuerbare Energie in Österreich: Modellierung möglicher Entwicklungsszenarien bis 2020" widmet sich dieser Quantifizierung, indem verschiedene erneuerbare Energieszenarien entwickelt und mit einem integrierten Wirtschafts-Energie-Umwelt-Modell (E3-Modell) simuliert werden. Die Analyse fokussiert auf die Wärme-und Strombereitstellung, der Transportsektor wird nicht berücksichtigt. In diesem Beitrag stellen wir zunächst das Simulationsmodell vor. Danach beschreiben wir in ihren Grundzügen die erneuerbaren Energieszenarien, die in einem partizipativen Prozess entwickelt wurden. Mit einem Ausblick auf die weiteren Projektschritte und Schlussfolgerungen schließen wir unsere Ausführungen.
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Based on an interdisciplinary perspective the role of wood as a carbon sink, as a multi-purpose material, and as a renewable energy source for the net reduction of greenhouse gases is discussed. We synthesize aspects from engineering, natural and social sciences to better understand the role of wood substitution in CO2 mitigation. We also formulate some recommendations on filling knowledge gaps that could be useful for policy making regarding how wood substitution could be further expanded. There are sufficient wood resources to substantially increase the use of wood for material and energy purposes. However, a number of factors hinder a wider use of wood for energy and material purposes. Furthermore, an analysis of wood substitution is a very complex issue, since the substitution influencing factors are to be found along the entire wood supply chain and involve several industries, socio-economic and cultural aspects, traditions, price dynamics, and structural and technical change. To improve the knowledge about wood as a substitute for other resources and the implications, it would be helpful to better integrate research from different disciplines on the subject and to cover different scales from a project to an economy-wide level.
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Book
Erneuerbare Energien stellen eine wesentliche Möglichkeit zur Sicherstellung einer nachhaltigen und umweltfreundlichen Energieversorgung dar. Über die zukünftige energiewirtschaftliche Bedeutung einzelner Technologien zur Nutzbarmachung des regenerativen Energieangebots in Österreich bestehen allerdings oft unterschiedliche Meinungen. Das Ziel dieses Buches ist es deshalb, Informationen zur Analyse und Bewertung dieser Technologien zusammenzustellen, um so die notwendigen Grundlagen für zukünftige Entscheidungen über die weitergehende Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien in Österreich bereitzustellen. Es werden hier erstmals alle in Österreich nutzbaren Möglichkeiten regenerativer Energien auf der Basis der gleichen methodischen Vorgehensweise anhand der wesentlichen energiewirtschaftlichen Kriterien (d. h. Potenziale, Kosten, Umwelteffekte) analysiert und vergleichend gegenübergestellt. Das Buch bietet dabei sowohl dem Leser ohne Vorkenntnisse als auch dem Fachmann mit fundierten Kenntnissen im Bereich der erneuerbaren Energien eine Vielzahl neuer Aspekte, die erstmalig in dieser Kompaktheit und Vollständigkeit für Österreich vorliegen.
Article
The human appropriation of net primary production (NPP) significantly alters the energy flow of ecosystems. The NPP-appropriation, defined as the difference between the NPP of the hypothetical undisturbed vegetation and the amount of biomass currently available in ecological cycles, is investigated for the 99 political districts of Austria (1990). Calculations are based on data for land-use, forestry, yield, and climate. Total aboveground NPP of the actual vegetation was found to be 7% less than that of the potential natural vegetation. Additionally, 34% of potential production is harvested, resulting in a total reduction of ecologically available aboveground NPP of 41%. Since this could have significant ecological effects, e.g. on biodiversity, it is of potential interest for strategies of sustainable development, indicators for stresses on the environment, and the environmental effects of increased utilization of biomass.
Chapter
The PROMETHEE Methods are particularly appropriate to treat multicriteria problems of the following type:$$Max\,\left\{ {{f_1}(x),{f_2}(x),...,{f_j}(x),...,{f_k}(x)|x \in A} \right\}$$ (1.1) for which A is a finite set of possible alternatives and fj(x), j = 1, 2,…,k a set of k evaluation criteria.
Article
Earths resources are consumed by one of its 5-30 million species homo sapiens or man at a rate disproportionately greater than any other species. Mans impact on the biosphere is measured in terms of net primary production (NPP). NPP is the amount of energy remaining after the respiration of primary producers (mostly plants) is subtracted from the total amount of biologically fixed energy (mostly solar). Human output is determined by 1) the direct NPP used for food fuel fiber or timber which yields a low estimate 2) all NPP of cropland devoted to human activity and 3) both 1) and 2) and land conversion for cities or pastures as well as conversion which results in desertification and overuse of lands. This last output determination yields a high estimate. Calculations are made for global NPP and each of the 3 estimates of low intermediate and high human output. Data are based on estimates by Ajtay et al. Armentano and Loucks and Houghton et al. and on the Food and Agriculture Organizations (FAO) summaries. Petagram (Pg) is used to calculate organic matter; this is equivalent to 10 to the 15th power grams or 10 to the 9th power metric tons. Carbon has been converted to organic matter by multiplying by 2.2. Matter in kilocalories has been converted to organic matter by dividing by 5. Intermediate or conservative estimates have been included. The standard of biomass is 1244 Pg and an annual NPP to 132.1. The NPP of marine and freshwater ecosystems is considered to be 92.4 Pg which is a low estimate. The low calculation of human (5 billion persons) consumption of plants at a caloric intake of 2500 kilocalories/person/day is .91 Pg of organic matter which equals .76 Pg of vegetable matter. The global production of human food is 1/7 Pg for grains and for human and livestock fed or .85 Pg of dry grain material and .3 Pg in nongrain dry material with dry grain material and .3 Pg in nongrain dry material with a subtraction of 20% for water content. 34% or .39 Pg is lost to waste and spoilage. Consumption by livestock forest usage and aquatic ecosystems is computed. The overall estimate for human use if 7.2 Pg of organic matter/year or 3% of total NPP/year. The intermediate figures take into account cropland pastureland forest use and conversion; the overall estimate of human use is 42.6 Pg of NPP/year of 19.0% (42.6/224.5) of NPP (30.7% on land and 2.2% on seas). The high estimate yields human use of 58.1 Pg/year on land or 40% (58.1/149.6) of potential land productivity or 25% (60.1/149.8 + 92.4) of land and water NPP. The remaining 60% of land is also affected by humans. The figures reflect the current patterns of exploitation distribution and consumption of a much larger population. These patterns amount to using >50% of NPP of land; there must be limits to growth.
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This paper reports an innovative foresighting study which constructed a set of hydrogen futures and pathways to them, in order to inform the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy. Combining backcasting and multi-criteria appraisal the authors developed a participatory expert stakeholder-led methodology to build and appraise a set of visions, which sought to acknowledge the diversity of possible hydrogen futures and contested claims as to their sustainability. A set of transition scenarios were then developed exploring the dynamics and governance of the large-scale socio-technical changes that would be required for the emergence of the different visions. While aspects of this project have been reported elsewhere, this paper seeks to: (1) locate the work with respect to broader developments in the fields of foresight, expectations and socio-technical transitions to sustainability; (2) provide a description of the UKSHEC sustainable futures methodology; and (3) reflect on key insights for research and practice.
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Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques are gaining popularity in sustainable energy management. The techniques provide solutions to the problems involving conflicting and multiple objectives. Several methods based on weighted averages, priority setting, outranking, fuzzy principles and their combinations are employed for energy planning decisions. A review of more than 90 published papers is presented here to analyze the applicability of various methods discussed. A classification on application areas and the year of application is presented to highlight the trends. It is observed that Analytical Hierarchy Process is the most popular technique followed by outranking techniques PROMETHEE and ELECTRE. Validation of results with multiple methods, development of interactive decision support systems and application of fuzzy methods to tackle uncertainties in the data is observed in the published literature.
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In recent years, the threat of global climate change, high fuel import dependence, and rapidly rising electricity demand levels have intensified the quest for more sustainable energy systems. This in turn has increased the need for policy makers to promote electricity generation from renewable energy sources. Guaranteed prices coupled with a buy-back obligation for electricity fed into the grid is a popular renewables promotion instrument, especially in Europe. More recently, driven mainly by electricity market liberalisation efforts, quota targets for the share of renewables in combination with tradable ‘green’ certificates (TGC) have received considerable attention. TGC offer a greater theoretical potential for economic efficiency gains, due to price competition and the greater flexibility assigned to the obliged parties. While guaranteed prices and TGC schemes support the operation of renewable energy technology systems, bidding schemes for renewable energy generation capacity are used to raise economic efficiency on the plant construction side. All of these policy instruments suffer from the shortcoming that they do not explicitly account for the often widely varying environmental, social and economic impacts of the technologies concerned. In this paper, we propose a methodology for the design of renewable energy policy instruments that is based on integrated assessment. In particular, we argue that using participatory multicriteria evaluation as part of the design of renewable energy promotion policies would make it possible: (1) to differentiate the level of promotion in a systematic and transparent manner according to their socio-ecological economic impact, and (2) to explicitly account for the preferences of stakeholders. A further problem of existing TGC and bidding schemes is that diversity of supply could be severely diminished, if few low-cost technologies were allowed to dominate the renewable energy market. To ensure a certain diversity of technologies, our scheme suggests the use of different technology bands for technologies that are relatively homogeneous with respect to their maturity.
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In this paper, we evaluate the relations between land-use and socio-economic metabolism and particularly, socio-economic biomass flows, by constructing four scenarios for Austria in 2020. The scenarios were established using a biomass-flow model for Austria which was developed for this analysis. The model distinguishes between 15 different kinds of land use and relates demand for biomass in Austria to biomass production in Austria, considering imports and exports as well as biomass conversions in industrial processing and in livestock. We discuss four scenarios: (1) a trend scenario, based upon an extrapolation of current trends; (2) a scenario assuming the far-reaching liberalization of agricultural markets; (3) a scenario in which biomass utilization for energy and industry is maximized; and (4) a scenario based upon the approach of “cascade utilization” of biomass. We find that increasing the use of biomass as an energy source might have considerable unwanted ecological effects including, among others, a reduction in the functioning of forests as a terrestrial carbon sink.
Article
In a decision aiding context, knowing the preferences of the Decision Maker (DM) and determining weights of criteria are very hard questions. Several methods can be used to give an appropriate value to the weights of criteria. J. Simos proposed a very simple procedure, using a set of cards, allowing to determine indirectly numerical values for weights. The purpose of this paper is first to explain why the above method needs to be revised, and second, the revised version we propose. This new version takes into account a new kind of information from the DM and changes certain computing rules of the former method. A software has been implemented based on the revised Simos' procedure whose main features are presented in this paper. The new method has been applied to different real-life cases (public transportation problems, water resources problems, environment problems, etc); it proved to be successful.
Article
This paper analyses the combined use of scenario building and participatory multi-criteria analysis (PMCA) in the context of renewable energy from a methodological point of view. Scenarios have been applied increasingly in decision-making about long-term consequences by projecting different possible pathways into the future. Scenario analysis accounts for a higher degree of complexity inherent in systems than the study of individual projects or technologies. MCA is a widely used appraisal method, which assesses options on the basis of a multi-dimensional criteria framework and calculates rankings of options. In our study, five renewable energy scenarios for Austria for 2020 were appraised against 17 sustainability criteria. A similar process was undertaken on the local level, where four renewable energy scenarios were developed and evaluated against 15 criteria. On both levels, the scenario development consisted of two stages: first an exploratory stage with stakeholder engagement and second a modelling stage with forecasting-type scenarios. Thus, the scenarios consist of a narrative part (storyline) and a modeled quantitative part. The preferences of national and local energy stakeholders were included in the form of criteria weights derived from interviews and participatory group processes, respectively. Especially in the case of renewable energy promotion in Austria, the paper systematically analyses the potentials and limitations of the methodology (1) for capturing the complexity of decision-making about the long-term consequences of changes in socio-economic and biophysical systems and (2) for appraising energy futures. The paper concludes that assessing scenarios with PMCA is resource intense, but this methodology captures successfully the context of technology deployment and allows decision-making based on a robust and democratic process, which addresses uncertainties, acknowledges multiple legitimate perspectives and encourages social learning.
Article
In this study, nine different electricity generation scenarios have been compared from a sustainability standpoint using an appropriate MCDA (Multicriteria Decision Aid) method. These scenarios consist of selected combinations of generation technologies and policy measures. A set of eleven criteria has been established to evaluate the performances of the scenarios along the three main "axes" of sustainability economy, ecology and society. A group of ten stakeholder representatives was formed to accompany the study. They participated in the scenario selection, the criteria definition and the fixing of their relative importance. For this last – always critical – process, a new approach has been devised and tested successfully. The results of the study show that the members of the accompanying stakeholder group privilege the scenario promoting (in a limited way) the use of renewable energies, with accompanying demand-side management measures and no anticipated retirement of the existing nuclear power.
Integrierte Nachhaltigkeitsbewertung von Energieszenarien
• L Bohunovsky
• I Omann
• M Bruckner
• S Stagl
Bohunovsky, L., Madlener, R., Omann, I., Bruckner, M. and Stagl, S., 2007. Integrierte Nachhaltig-keitsbewertung von Energieszenarien, Ökologisches Wirtschaften, Heft 2 (April): 47-50
Renewable Energy Market and Policy Trends in IEA Countries
• Iea
IEA, 2004. Renewable Energy. Market and Policy Trends in IEA Countries. IEA/OECD, Paris
Verordnung des Bundesministers für Wirtschaft und Arbeit, mit der Preise für die Abnahme elektrischer Energie aus Ökostromanlagen auf Grund von Verträ- gen festgesetzt werden, zu deren Abschluss die Ökostromabwicklungsstelle in den Kalender-jahren 2006 und 2007 verpflichtet ist
• Green
• Electricity
Green Electricity Ordinance, 2006. Verordnung des Bundesministers für Wirtschaft und Arbeit, mit der Preise für die Abnahme elektrischer Energie aus Ökostromanlagen auf Grund von Verträ- gen festgesetzt werden, zu deren Abschluss die Ökostromabwicklungsstelle in den Kalender-jahren 2006 und 2007 verpflichtet ist (Ökostromverordnung 2006). BGBl. II Nr. 401/2006 vom 24. Oktober 2006
Verordnung des Bundesministers fu¨ und Arbeit, mit der Preise fu¨ Abnahme elektrischer Energie aus O ¨ kostromanlagen auf Grund von Vertra¨ festgesetzt werden
• Green Electricity
• Ordinance
Green Electricity Ordinance, 2006. Verordnung des Bundesministers fu¨ und Arbeit, mit der Preise fu¨ Abnahme elektrischer Energie aus O ¨ kostromanlagen auf Grund von Vertra¨ festgesetzt werden, zu deren Abschluss die O ¨ kostromabwicklungsstelle in den Kalenderjahren 2006 und 2007 verpflichtet ist (O ¨ kostromverordnung 2006). BGBl. II Nr. 401/2006 vom 24. Oktober 2006.
Energieszenarien für Österreich bis 2020
• K Kratena
• M Wüger
Kratena, K., Wu¨, M., 2005. Energieszenarien fu¨ sterreich bis 2020. Monograph No. 93, Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Vienna, July.
forthcoming. Socio-economic impacts of energy crops for heat generation in Northern Greece, Energy Policy (this issue) Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning—a review
• C Panoutsou
• S D Pohekar
• M Ramachandran
Panoutsou, C., forthcoming. Socio-economic impacts of energy crops for heat generation in Northern Greece, Energy Policy (this issue) Pohekar, S.D., Ramachandran, M., 2004. Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning—a review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 8 (4), 365–381.
Strategien zur weiteren Forcierung erneuerbarer Energieträger in Österreich unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des EU-Weissbuches für erneuerbare Energien und der Campaign for Take-off
• R Haas
• M Berger
• L Kranzl
Haas, R., Berger, M., Kranzl, L., 2001. Strategien zur weiteren Forcierung erneuerbarer Energietra¨ in O ¨ sterreich unter besonderer Beru¨ -tigung des EU-Weissbuches fu¨fuë Energien und der Campaign for Take-off, Studie der TU Wien im Auftrag des BMWA und BMLFUW, Juli.
Shell global scenarios to 2025. The future business environment: trends, trade-offs and choices
• Shell
• R In
Shell, 2005. Shell global scenarios to 2025. The future business environment: trends, trade-offs and choices, June. ARTICLE IN PRESS R. Madlener et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 6060–6074 6073
Nachhaltige Entwicklung integrativ betrach-tet
• J Kopfmuï
• V Brandl
• J Jo¨
• M Paetau
• G Banse
• R Coenen
• A Grunwald
Kopfmuï, J., Brandl, V., Jo¨, J., Paetau, M., Banse, G., Coenen, R., Grunwald, A., 2001. Nachhaltige Entwicklung integrativ betrach-tet. edition Sigma, Konstitutive Elemente, Regeln, Indikatoren, Berlin.
Anwendung einer multikriteriellen Entscheidungshilfe für die Beurteilung nachhaltiger Energie-Technologien in Deutschland
• K Kowalski
Kowalski, K., 2002. Anwendung einer multikriteriellen Entscheidungshilfe fu¨ Beurteilung nachhaltiger Energie-Technologien in Deutschland. Master's Thesis, University of Vienna, Vienna.
Energieszenarien bis 2020
• K Kratena
• S Schleicher
Kratena, K., Schleicher, S., 2001. Energieszenarien bis 2020, Studie des O ¨ sterreichischen Instituts fu¨ (WIFO) im Auf-trag des BMWA und BMLFUW. O ¨ sterreichisches Institut fu¨, Wien, April.
Erneuerbare Energien in O ¨ sterreich
• J Neubarth
• M Kaltschmitt
Neubarth, J., Kaltschmitt, M. (Hrsg.), 2000. Erneuerbare Energien in O ¨ sterreich. Systemtechnik, Potenziale, Wirtschaftlichkeit, Umweltas-pekte. Springer, Wien/New York.
Erneuerbare Energie in O ¨ sterreich: Modellierung mo¨ Entwick-lungsszenarien bis 2020 Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems (GEMIS) Version 4.1 for Austria Biofuels in the transport sector in Austria in 2004. Summary of information from the Republic of Austria in accordance with Article
• A Stocker
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• M I Wolter
Stocker, A., GrossmannStocker, A., Grossmann, A., Madlener, R., Wolter, M.I., 2007. Erneuerbare Energie in O ¨ sterreich: Modellierung mo¨ Entwick-lungsszenarien bis 2020. Proceedings of the 5th International Energy Economics Conference at the Vienna University of Technology (IEWT 2007), 16–18 February 2007. UBA, 2004a. Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems (GEMIS) Version 4.1 for Austria. Umweltbundesamt, Wien. UBA, 2004b. Biofuels in the transport sector in Austria in 2004. Summary of information from the Republic of Austria in accordance with Article 4(1) of Directive 2003/30/EC for the reporting year 2003. Federal Environmental Agency on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, the Environment and Water Management, Vienna, June.
absolute (PJ) -Scenario A 17
• Article In
• Heat
ARTICLE IN PRESS Heat, absolute (PJ) -Scenario A 17.8 0.4 12.3 149.9 3.6
total Sewage gas CHP Geothermal, Electr. Electricity, increase rel. to BAU (GWh) -Scenario B Small hydropower
• Chp Biogas
• Chp Biomass
• Biomass Electr
Biogas CHP, total Biomass CHP, total Biomass Electr., total Sewage gas CHP Geothermal, Electr. Electricity, increase rel. to BAU (GWh) -Scenario B Small hydropower (<10 MW)
Summary of Scenarios A--E: additional electricity from renewables, in absolute terms and relative to BAU
Fig. 4. Summary of Scenarios A--E: additional electricity from renewables, in absolute terms and relative to BAU 2002 (in GWh)
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Summary of scenarios A--E: heat energy from renewables, in absolute terms and relative to BAU
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Fig. 3. Summary of scenarios A--E: heat energy from renewables, in absolute terms and relative to BAU 2002 (in PJ) Electricity, absolute (GWh) -Scenario A 6'800
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