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New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in Austria
Abstract
Increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources in heat and electricity production is a nationally and internationally acknowledged aim for sustainable development. In this context, the participatory development and appraisal of energy scenarios can be useful for enabling stakeholders to explore future energy options and for supporting the national policy discourse. The five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, which was developed as part of the ARTEMIS project, examines possible energy futures paths by combining (1) scenario development; (2) multi-criteria evaluation; and (3) a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. Economic, social, environmental and technological impacts as well as revealed social preferences are used for the ranking of the scenarios. Due to the paramount importance of bioenergy in Austria, special emphasis in the scenario development is put on the contribution of biomass. Two main bioenergy issues and their consideration in the ARTEMIS project are explicitly addressed in this paper: the cascadic utilisation of biomass resources and the demand for land area and land area conflicts. Overall, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied in practice and what insights policy-makers can gain from it. We also explore the methodology's limitations, especially regarding the effort required for participatory scenario building and the availability of stakeholders.
... However, the majority of the national studies provided details on how many participants had been involved. None of them gave explicit justification for the number of participants involved, but having twenty-five participants appears to be the typical amount, with a number of studies having this amount [21][22][23][24] and several others having close to it [25][26][27][28]. ...
... A number of other studies used a more formal approach, opting for quantitative methods of data recording in the form of surveys and questionnaires [12,20,24,26,27,29,31,40,[42][43][44][76][77][78][79]. This was generally necessitated by the method being used, although there were a number of different purposes; ranking criteria as a prerequisite for MCDA [12,20,24,29,31,40,42,43,75], ranking options using a Likert scale [25,66,77,79,80], general opinion surveys [26,27,42,[76][77][78][79], data gathering [81] and evaluation [44,76,77]. ...
... A number of other studies used a more formal approach, opting for quantitative methods of data recording in the form of surveys and questionnaires [12,20,24,26,27,29,31,40,[42][43][44][76][77][78][79]. This was generally necessitated by the method being used, although there were a number of different purposes; ranking criteria as a prerequisite for MCDA [12,20,24,29,31,40,42,43,75], ranking options using a Likert scale [25,66,77,79,80], general opinion surveys [26,27,42,[76][77][78][79], data gathering [81] and evaluation [44,76,77]. The means by which the surveys were conducted varied from; face-to-face interactions as part of a workshop [42,66,77,78], or structured interview [12,20,24,29,42,44,75,81], telephone interview [27] and online surveys [12,26,31,40,43,76,77,79]. In a couple of cases the survey was the only form of participation from the public, and the results of the surveys were then discussed in 'expert' workshops [12,79]. ...
This paper presents a systematic review of participatory methods used in energy system modelling and planning. It draws on a compiled database of fifty-nine studies at a local, regional, and national level detailing analysis on full energy systems down to sectors, modes, and single technologies. The initial aim of the paper is to consolidate and present this growing body of literature, providing a clear understanding of which stakeholder groups have been engaged and what methods have been used to link stakeholder engagement with quantitative analysis. On from this, the progress to date in democratising key decision-making processes is discussed, reflecting on the benefits and challenges of a participatory approach, as well as highlighting gaps within the current body of literature. During the review, two differing spatial levels at subnational (cities, municipalities, or regions) and national scale emerged as separate groups for analysis. A clear distinction between the two groups was the motivation for involving stakeholders. At a subnational level, researchers hoping to build local capacity to bring about real-world change engaged with community representatives, whereas national level studies concerned with generating more impactful energy policy measures involved industry, policymaking, and academic experts. One key finding from the review was that only ten out of the fifty-nine studies reviewed noted some form of collaboration with non-academic stakeholders, and moreover 36% of studies involved just a single interaction with participants. This indicates a lack of progress to date in process democratisation within energy system modelling and planning research.
... It became apparent that the discipline of choosing and inviting stakeholders was not an integrated part of the application of scenario methods. Some projects, e.g., MOUNTLAND, did not discuss how stakeholders were chosen at all (Madlener et al., 2007). Nevertheless, our review of articles that addressed the selection process revealed three typical approaches to selecting stakeholders (see Table 2). ...
... The ARTEMIS project asked stakeholders to prioritize among 16 scenarios developed by the research team. The stakeholders' role in this project was to prioritize among scenarios that depicted trends, challenges and technological solutions related to Austrian electricity and heat production from renewable energy sources (Madlener et al., 2007). The stakeholders also contributed criteria for ranking the scenarios (Madlener et al., 2007). ...
... The stakeholders' role in this project was to prioritize among scenarios that depicted trends, challenges and technological solutions related to Austrian electricity and heat production from renewable energy sources (Madlener et al., 2007). The stakeholders also contributed criteria for ranking the scenarios (Madlener et al., 2007). In some model-based scenario projects, the vetting function of the stakeholders included how the scenarios were modelled and the resulting impacts (van Berkel and Verburg 2012;Jessel and Jacobs 2005;Videira et al., 2009;Walz et al., 2007). ...
Stakeholder inclusion is a core element of many scenario planning practices. The literature on this topic is vast and has documented that involving stakeholders in such processes is crucial to secure an impact on actual decision making and produce positive societal outcomes. However, few studies have homed in on more detailed questions about exactly why, how and to what ends engaging diverse stakeholders matters to scenario planning. This study of stakeholder inclusion in scenario planning for policy making reflects on four detailed key arenas. We first investigate the concept of stakeholders and how the scenario planning literature considers them. We explore the different types of relevant actors to include in a participatory scenario process, and we probe which methods are used to identify stakeholders to engage. Second, we investigate the role or function of stakeholders in the scenario planning process and find that stakeholder involvement has specific and detailed functions in particular phases of scenario planning. Third, we explore which methods are used to include stakeholders in scenario planning processes. Finally, in a synthesis across the study, we explore some of the key tensions and open questions related to including stakeholders in scenario planning processes.
... To create energy scenarios, the energy model requires input data regarding future societal developments and their effects on energy demand and supply [105]. The process of scenario development encompasses the following stages [106]: (1) identification of potential future problems, (2) proposition of solutions utilising reference scenarios, (3) comparison of reference scenarios with alternative scenarios, and (4) evaluation of the outcomes. ...
... The scenario development process engages public and multidisciplinary experts, including modellers and non-modellers [106], and collaborates through participatory approaches [107]. One study [26] focuses on the Danish transportation sector as a case study to illustrate how stakeholders contribute to scenario development. ...
The energy system model (ESM) predominantly emphasises techno-economic factors and often overlooks the essential social dimensions that are crucial for successful energy transitions. This review investigates the integration of social aspects into energy system models (ESMs) and explores approaches for incorporating public perspectives. Through a systematic literature review utilising the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses approach (PRISMA), 79 relevant publications were identified. The analysis revealed that while some studies considered socio-economic and socio-environmental elements, these efforts are frequently insufficient to fully comprehend social dynamics. The review highlights the significance of public engagement in ESMs, with 29 studies demonstrating some form of public participation. However, current engagement strategies are often limited to information sharing and consultation, with minimal strong collaboration. This study advocates for the implementation of transparent collaborative approaches in ESMs, including co-creation, active participation, and iterative processes, to enhance the comprehensiveness and societal relevance of models. It also addresses challenges, such as time constraints and the conversion of qualitative inputs into quantitative parameters. The review concludes by calling for further research to develop transparent, iterative frameworks for collaborative approaches in ESMs, emphasising the inclusion of vulnerable population perspectives to ensure equitable energy transitions and more effective, socially acceptable outcomes.
... Nigim et al. [16] utilized DM methods to support neighborhoods in sorting the practicability of renewable community resources. Madlener et al. [17] outlined RE sources' ability to contribute to heating and power generation as a domestic and international goal for ecological sustainability. They analyzed five sustainable prospects for energy in Austria for 2020 using the PROMETHEE methodology as a Technique. ...
... 2. Compute a weighed decision matrix using Equation (12) on the decision matrix for each of the alternatives used in the decision making process, see Table 6. 3. This step involves the use of Equations (13) and (14), for the calculation of positive and negative ideal solution, see Table 7 and Table 8. 4. Equations (15) and (16) are utilized for computation of distance from the positive and negative and ideal solution of each alternative, see Table 9 and Table10. 5. Using Equation (17) for the computation of preference value for every single alternative, see Table 11. 6. ...
The demand for renewable energy has significantly increased over the last decade with increased attention to the preservation of the environment and sustainable, optimal resource management. As traditional sources of energy production are depleting at an alarming rate and causing long-lasting environmental damage, it is essential to explore green and cost-effective methodologies for meeting energy demand. With each country having different geographical, political, social, and natural factors, the problem arises of which renewable energy should be utilized for optimal resource management. This multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) challenge is tackled by applying a dynamic fuzzy hypersoft set-based Method for the evaluation of currently deployed Renewable Energy systems and providing a decision support system for the installation of new ones based on the factors mentioned above for Turkey. As the installation of new renewable energy projects and the evaluation of old ones is significantly influenced by human judgment, it leaves great room for uncertainty primarily because of the psychological factors of the expert. The novel concept of Fuzzy Hypersoft Sets (FHSs) and their Entropy (EN) and TOPSIS-based operations are first discussed with reference to the problem at hand. The presented structure is superior to the ones in the literature by allowing access to data parameters as sub-parametric values while utilizing the versatility of Fuzzy structures to deal with uncertainty. The technique has great potential to serve as a potential decision support system in any setting. For now, hypothetical expert ratings are used to illustrate the working of the dynamic structure along with a sensitivity analysis to investigate the primary criterion weights in sorting. The evaluation of currently deployed renewable energy systems using our methodology revealed an average improvement in system performance compared to traditional methods. Furthermore, the decision support system for the installation of new projects based on geographical, political, social, and natural factors exhibited a potential increase in overall system efficiency. These numeric outcomes highlight the effectiveness and practical applicability of our approach in optimizing resource management and fostering sustainable energy practices.
... However, model-based scenarios are known to rarely represent public perspectives explicitly [20][21][22] and large divergences between model-based scenarios and citizen views could be expected, as studies in Switzerland showed [19,23,24]. Several approaches have been suggested for increasing stakeholder participation in energy system modeling [25] and, specifically, for combining model-based scenarios and citizen preferences for the energy transition in Europe [26][27][28][29][30][31] Many of these studies have been based on workshops with citizens and multi-criteria decision analysis [27,30,31]. Other studies attempted to create model-based scenarios for energy and climate policy in Europe using insights from socio-technical transition studies [28,29], without, though, collecting empirical data on societal preferences. ...
... However, model-based scenarios are known to rarely represent public perspectives explicitly [20][21][22] and large divergences between model-based scenarios and citizen views could be expected, as studies in Switzerland showed [19,23,24]. Several approaches have been suggested for increasing stakeholder participation in energy system modeling [25] and, specifically, for combining model-based scenarios and citizen preferences for the energy transition in Europe [26][27][28][29][30][31] Many of these studies have been based on workshops with citizens and multi-criteria decision analysis [27,30,31]. Other studies attempted to create model-based scenarios for energy and climate policy in Europe using insights from socio-technical transition studies [28,29], without, though, collecting empirical data on societal preferences. ...
With the European Green Deal, the European Union (EU27) aims to achieve an ambitious decarbonization of its electricity supply, while actively involving its citizens. Scenarios from energy and electricity sector models seek to inform this transition, although it is unclear to what extent these scenarios are aligned with the views of the citizens. In this study, four multi-organization, multi-model ensembles of existing electricity supply scenarios have been compiled for France, Germany, Poland, and the whole EU27 in 2035, leading to 612 scenarios in total. These scenarios were then compared with 601 preferred scenarios elicited from French, German, and Polish citizens in a survey with an interactive scenario tool. Results show that model-based and citizens’ preferred scenarios converged only on having moderate shares of onshore and offshore wind power and low shares of biomass and waste incineration. In contrast to the majority of model-based scenarios, most Polish and German citizens preferred a deeper decarbonization for their national electricity supply, while French citizens preferred a deeper denuclearization. Additionally, most citizens of all three countries used significant shares of solar photovoltaics and low shares of fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, hence diverging from model-based scenarios. Similar patterns were found for the EU27 scenarios: many model-based scenarios included large shares of nuclear power, natural gas, and coal, while surveyed citizens preferred scenarios dominated by diverse renewable sources. European modelers should now quantify these missing scenarios so that the EU27 energy transition can be informed by modeling that is in line with citizens’ perspectives.
... They used the Spearman correlation coefficient for the assessment. A lot of works are devoted to the choice of criteria weighting [39][40][41][42][43][44]. MCDM methods use both weighting criteria: the equal weights and the rank-order weights. ...
... In the study, equal weights of criteria were adopted i.e., w j = 1 n , n j=1 w j = 1. Many authors attach different weights to the criteria, perceiving it as an improvement in inference [39][40][41]. There are also those who believe that adopting equal weights of criteria may be the best solution according to the medical principle of primum non nocere [42][43][44]. ...
One of the basic objectives of the European Union’s energy policy is to obtain and use energy in a sustainable way. Multiple-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods, in particular linear ordering based on the synthetic variable procedure, are used for comparative analyses of the level of energy sustainability. Despite many studies, the problem of choosing the optimal ordering method is still not fully resolved. This paper presents an original procedure that facilitates the selection of an effective method of the linear ordering of multi-feature objects for the evaluation of sustainable energy development of regions. What is understood as the effective ordering of regions is not only the effective ranking of objects but also their effective clustering. In order to obtain the best results of linear ordering, the authors put forward a multi-stage optimization of the selection of the method of ordering and normalization of diagnostic variables. Analysis of variance was used for the assessment of the object ranking quality, while for the assessment of the object clustering quality, an innovative approach was presented based on the analysis of the empirical distribution of the frequency of occurrence of the distance between objects. The linear ordering method, selected on the basis of the procedure proposed in the paper, was used to assess the energy sustainability of Polish regions. The calculations and analyses were carried out using the set of indicators developed by the authors. They characterize the sustainable energy development of regions in the social, economic, and environmental dimensions.
... Doukas et al. (2006) [62] applied PROMETHEE II to evaluate the sustainable technologies for electricity generation, according to the environmental, social, economic, and technological dimension of sustainable development. Madlener et al. (2007) [63] used PROMETHEE algorithm to assess five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, examined possible energy futures paths by combining scenario development; multi-criteria evaluation; and a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. ...
... Doukas et al. (2006) [62] applied PROMETHEE II to evaluate the sustainable technologies for electricity generation, according to the environmental, social, economic, and technological dimension of sustainable development. Madlener et al. (2007) [63] used PROMETHEE algorithm to assess five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, examined possible energy futures paths by combining scenario development; multi-criteria evaluation; and a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. ...
The European Union (EU) aims to prepare its strategy and infrastructure for further decarbonisation of its energy system in the longer term towards 2050. Recent political discussions and research interest focus on ways to accelerate the development and deployment of low-carbon technologies with respect to the targets set for 2030 and 2050. However, the diverse options available that are to be implemented, are policy sensitive and need careful comparative assessment. This paper presents a multi-criteria approach based on an extension of the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment of Evaluations (PROMETHEE) method for group decision-making that incorporates fuzzy set theory in order to evaluate alternative transformation pathways for achieving a sustainable energy system in EU. This assessment aims at providing a direction towards a most preferable pathway concept that should be taken into account by a future model-based analysis of the necessary transformation of our energy sector. The results obtained could support policymakers in drawing effective recommendations based on the findings. The added value of this analysis to policymakers is its contribution to plan climate and energy strategies towards a low-carbon transition pathway by using the information of this approach and prioritizing uncertainties through an environmental and energy perspective.
... Few studies have investigated the public preferences for low-to zero-carbon electricity 53 portfolios because they typically include substantial shares of fossil fuels and only several low-54 carbon alternatives, such as solar, wind, or nuclear power 13, 15-17 . 55 4 No fundamental change, such as the low-carbon transition, can occur without unintended 56 environmental consequences [18][19][20][21] . A solid understanding of the public preferences for low-carbon 57 transition pathways should thus account for the multi-dimensional impacts of this transition as 58 well. ...
... Technical expert communities sometimes assume that, if the 70 public was aware that all low-carbon technologies have negative environmental, health and 71 economic impacts, more negatively viewed technologies would become more acceptable. There 72 is evidence that multi-dimensional information about the pros and cons of low-carbon 73 technologies can induce making trade-offs 17,18,20,23,32,33 , but this has not been extensively tested. 74 ...
Low-carbon transition is gaining momentum, but relatively little is known about the public preferences for low- and zero-carbon electricity portfolios given their environmental, health, and economic impacts. Decision science literature argues that conventional opinion surveys are limited for making strategic decisions because the elicited opinions may be distorted by misconceptions and awareness gaps that prevail in the public. We created an informed citizen panel (N=46) in Switzerland using technology factsheets, an interactive web-tool Riskmeter, and group discussions. We measured the evolution of the panel’s knowledge and preferences from initial (uninformed) to informed and longer-term views four weeks after. In terms of energy transition, our elicited technology and portfolio preferences show strong support for the low-carbon electricity sector transition, especially relying on hydropower, solar power, electricity savings and efficiency, and other renewable sources. As these informed preferences are structurally different from the futures considered by many energy experts, we argue that these preferences should also inform the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050’s implementation. In terms of methodologies in decision science, our factsheets, Riskmeter, and group discussions all proved effective in forming the preferences and improving knowledge, but we also intriguingly found that in a longer run the participants tended to revert back to their initial opinions. The latter finding opens up multiple new research questions on the longer-term effectiveness of informational tools and stability of informed preferences.
... In summary, there is a sort of communication channel between social and technological systems through which they exchange information on uses and needs [59,72,73,64,74,75,70]. This channel is partly formed by the research system [76,77,58]. In fact, the research system is increasingly focusing on energy issues, i.e. with calculations of local renewable energy potential or technological advance. ...
... siting), especially for the electrical part. The complexity of an energy system is recognized ( [76]: p. 6061) considering the interrelation between actors, processes, and networks and a new methodological approach is needed for overcoming it and including social and technological viewpoints. This paper proposes the background for an analysis of the characteristics of a territory and the dimensions and sub-dimensions that address choices, actions, and reactions of people to low carbon energy system features. ...
Local population actions determine the level of renewability of local energy systems in the context of energy transition goals. Local population makes energy choices based on the availability of different territorial resources and limits, i.e. natural or environmental, technological, and social ones. The aim of this research is to identify the main dimensions and aspects of territory that can address its change towards energy transition. Indeed, energy system is not only technology matter. Socio-energy and territorial approaches (Osti, 2010; Jessop et al., 2008 [2]) underline the importance of features and relationships between the territorial systems: natural, technological, economic, legislative, social, and cultural ones. This research identifies substantial, procedural, and relational dimensions or characteristics of territorial energy systems based on the Conflict Management Triangle (European Forest Institute, 1996).
1084 journal papers have been selected based on specific criteria, allowing 168 papers to be analyzed using NVIVO11plus®. Following the qualitative and quantitative method applied for the systematized literature review, 15 dimensions and 41 sub-dimensions related to local population choices about energy transition have been selected. This is a scientific attempt to use a content analysis software (NVIVO11plus) in this scientific domain.
... Thin-ship strip theory [4][5][6] Slender-ship approximation [7] Fourier-Kochin flow method [8,9] Strip theory [10][11][12][13] keeping response [61], using multi-objective genetic algorithms optimization to optimize the vessel's body [62]. The Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment of Evaluations (PRO-METHEE) that is used in this study has particular application in decision making, and is used in a wide variety of decision scenarios, including portfolio and stock selection problems [63][64][65], environmental issues [66][67][68], energy management [69,70] and shipping industry [71][72][73][74][75]. ...
Ship design involves optimizing the hull in order to enhance safety, economic efficiency, and technical efficiency. Despite the long-term research on this problem and a number of significant conclusions, some of its content still needs to be improved. In this study, block and midship coefficients are incorporated to optimize the ship’s hull. The considered ship was a patrol vessel. The seakeeping analysis was performed employing strip theory. The hull form was generated using a fuzzy model. Though the body lines generated by the midship coefficient (CM) and block coefficient (CB) varied indecently, the other geometric parameters remained the same. Multi-objective optimization was used to optimize CB and CM. According to the results of this study, these coefficients have a significant impact on the pitch motion of the patrol vessel as well as the motion sickness index. Heave and roll motions, as well as the added resistance, were not significantly influenced by the coefficients of CM and CB. However, increasing the hull form parameters increases the maximum Response Amplitude Operator (RAO) of heave and roll motions. The frequency of occurrence of the maximum roll RAO was in direct relation with CB and CM. These coefficients, however, had no meaningful impact on the occurrence frequency of other motion indices. In the end, the CB and CM coefficients were selected based on the vessel’s seakeeping performance. These findings might be used by shipbuilders to construct the vessel with more efficient seakeeping performance.
... The PROMETHEE is one of the most effective outranking methods in solving MADM problems, which has numerously been used in energy applications. [95][96][97][98][99] The PROMETHEE I partially ranks the alternatives, while the PROMETHEE II as a developed version determines the explicit priorities between alternatives. 100,101 It utilizes the outranking principle to rank the alternatives and performs a pair-wise comparison of alternatives in order to rank them with respect to a comprehensive evaluation criteria namely, net outranking flow (NOF). ...
Optimal thermo-economic integration of renewable energy sources with multi-generation energy systems is a prime research topic today. The present study proposes a multi-criteria evaluation method of such integration, based on combined heating and power (CHP), and combined cooling and power (CCP) scenarios, for three different solar intensities. Three novel solar-driven tri-generation systems are selected. They include different organic Rankine cycle (ORC) architectures and a Kalina cycle system (KCS) and a double-effect absorption refrigeration cycle as bottoming cycles. Evaluation of the tri-generation systems, both with and without the KCS system, indicates a performance improvement of up to 23% in various thermoeconomic characteristics when the KCS system is present. Selection of the suitable tri-generation system for each condition and optimization of the working fluid are carried out based on a multi-attribute decision-making method. P-xylene is found as the optimal organic working fluid for ORC and ORC (ORC integrated with internal heat exchanger) based systems, and benzene for the regenerative ORC-based system in both CHP and CCP scenarios. Multi-criteria analysis shows that ORC-based system outperforms other systems with net outranking flow of 0.44 (0.39) for CHP (CCP) application. The optimal configuration gives 95.6 M$ and 1.99 years for net present value and dynamic payback period, and 83.03% and 34.55% for energy and exergy efficiencies, respectively.
... The Bigot curve gives the information about the air-drying of our bricks ( Figure 11); this test shows the evolution of two characteristic phases of the drying process: shrinkage as a function of weight loss and the successive stabilization phases (Boussen et al., 2016). The control of the drying parameters offers many options to determine the optimal drying time and energy consumption (Madlener et al., 2007). It was found that the obtained bricks are homogeneous and present acceptable results. ...
This scientific paper presents a comprehensive study of the physical and chemical properties of a clay sample collected from Meknes region of Morocco. X-ray diffraction analysis revealed the presence of kaolinite, muscovite, and quartz minerals in the clay sample. X-ray fluorescence analysis showed that the sample contained a significant amount of aluminum and silica. The Atterberg limit test indicated that the clay has a high plasticity index and is classified as a clay of low to medium plasticity. The ATG_DSC analysis revealed that the sample underwent multiple endothermic reactions, including dehydration, dehydroxylation, and decarbonation, at different temperature ranges. Shrinkage and weight loss experiments showed that the clay exhibited high shrinkage and weight loss upon drying. SEM-EDX analysis provided information on the microstructure and elemental composition of the clay sample. The water absorption test revealed that the clay has a low water absorption capacity. The three-point flexural test showed that the clay bricks had high flexural strength, which makes it suitable for use in high-stress applications. Overall, the results suggest that the clay sample can be used in a variety of applications, including building materials, ceramics, and other industrial uses.
... In practice, terms such as scenario creation, scenario planning, and scenario analysis may be used interchangeably. This is despite the fact that scenarios may be qualitative, quantitative, or a combination of the two [59]. Developed scenarios can be helpful for the following purposes: (i) supporting research (for example, by providing assistance with critical investigations or examinations); (ii) promoting public discussion, learning, and debate (for example, by identifying key issues of concern to the community at large); and (iii) engaging political discussion or participation in order to conduct policy analysis (e.g., determining effective measures to support flood victims) [102,110]. ...
... While preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) uses the outranking technique, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) uses the technique of relative weights (Brans & Vincke, 1985;Dağdeviren, 2008;Macharis et al., 2004). PROMETHEE has been used frequently to select projects, alternative energy planning options (Goumas & Lygerou, 2000;Madlener et al., 2007), location planning for warehouses (Fontana & Cavalcante, 2014), selection of lean manufacturing systems (Anand & Kodali, 2008), equipment selection (Dağdeviren, 2008), comparison of building product designs (Le Téno & Mareschal, 1998) or simply for clustering exercises (Figueira et al., 2004). However, PROMTEHEE in sports studies has not been put to use perhaps due to the recency of the method. ...
The article identifies measurable attributes to find the consistency in pitch ratings which are otherwise subjective decisions made by referees for international test match cricket. To do so, the article uses statistics related to test matches, one-days and T20s played among all test playing nations between March 2017 and March 2019 (53 tests, 142 T20s and 172 one-day matches: the next two seasons ending May 2020/2021 were hit by COVID-19 and hence excluded). To measure the consistency of pitch ratings (very good, good, above average, average, below average and poor), measurable attributes like runs/day, wickets/day, runs/over, runs/wicket and overs/wicket were identified. To rank pitch ratings using these attributes, the multi-criteria decision-making technique—PROMETHEE II was used. We found that the referee pitch ratings are largely consistent and the attributes developed can be utilized to further analyse future judgements regarding pitch ratings. Further, six-pitch ratings can be clustered into two distinct groups that are significantly different from each other. The article is among the first to analyse sports pitch ratings by using team performance-based statistics. This study paves the way for similar studies and development of newer statistical flow-based attributes.
... As a result, energy policies are designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on oil imports [5] and should focus on developing sustainable energy sources [6]. One of the energy policies is the biodiesel blending mandate. ...
... PROMETHEE II applications have compared energy scenarios and focused on the ranking and evaluation of energy generation or exploitation alternatives at the regional and national levels. Madlener et al. considered five renewable energy scenarios for Austria [29]. The methodology investigates potential future energy pathways by combining scenario development, multi-criteria evaluation based on PROMETHEE II, and a national-level participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts [30]. ...
A resilient, diversified, and efficient energy system, comprising multiple energy carriers and high-efficiency infrastructure, is the way to decarbonise the European economy in line with the Paris Agreement, the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and the various recovery plans after the COVID-19 pandemic period. To achieve these goals, a key role is played by the private construction sector, which can reduce economic and environmental impacts and accelerate the green transition. Nevertheless, while traditionally decision-making problems in large urban transformations were supported by economic assessment based on Life Cycle Thinking and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) approaches, these are now obsolete. Indeed, the sustainable neighbourhood paradigm requires the assessment of different aspects, considering both economic and extra-economic criteria, as well as different points of view, involving all stakeholders. In this context, the paper proposes a multi-stage assessment procedure that first investigates the energy performance, through a dynamic simulation model, and then the socioeconomic performance of regeneration operations at the neighbourhood scale, through a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The model based on the proposed Preference Ranking Organisation Method for Enrichment Evaluations II (PROMETHEE II) aims to support local decision-makers (DMs) in choosing which retrofit operations 2 to implement and finance. The methodology was applied to a real-world case study in Turin (Italy), where various sustainable measures were ranked using multiple criteria to determine the best transformation scenario.
... Also, different combinations and pathways are discussed in the literature: The electricity sector can be connected to the heat (cf. [27][28][29][30][31]) and mobility (see for example [32][33][34][35][36][37]) sector or both (cf. [8,38] Fig. 2 illustrates the effects on a systemic level using an energy flow chart as introduced in Section 2.1. ...
While progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is notable in many national power sectors, other sectors such as transportation and often heating are lagging behind. One strategy to propagate greenhouse gas emission reductions from the power sector to other sectors is sector coupling. Against this backdrop, we ask the following two questions: (1) To what extent does demand for(useful and final) energy match the supply of renewable energy sources in the dimensions of time and space? (2) What impacts of sector coupling pathways on future infrastructure requirements can be derived from applying spatio-temporal analyses? For our analyses, we assume a scenario with 95% greenhouse gas emission reductions for Germany as a case study targeted by the government for 2050. We choose a consumer-driven approach, analyzing the energy value chain backward from consumption to supply for the different sector coupling technologies. From useful energy consumption, we derive final energy demand patterns in high temporal, sectoral, and regional resolution. We then evaluate implications for different placement strategies of renewable energy expansion. The key contributions of our study are twofold: Firstly, we introduce a generalizable and transferable consumer-driven method for holistic analyses of energy systems with high degrees of sector coupling. Secondly, we provide policy recommendations from our results regarding effective and efficient strategies for integrating renewable energy sources into present energy systems.
... During the realization of semi-structured interviews, interviewees were asked to rank the low-carbon goals indicated in Table 1 in ascending order (from the most important to the least important) and comment on them. To facilitate comparisons among different stakeholder's rankings, we used a quantitative preference ranking method called the "Revised Simos" procedure (Figueira & Roy, 2002), which allows obtaining ordinal weights which indicate the importance that each interviewee attach to the items analyzed in the ranking in a scale from 0 (not important) to 1 (very important) (Garmendia & Gamboa, 2012;Kowalski, Stagl, Madlener, & Omann, 2009;Madlener, Kowalski, & Stagl, 2007). The rankings obtained were then discussed with each interviewee and the conversation audio-recorded. ...
Governments and civil society are increasingly aware that the decarbonization of energy systems needs to be aligned with justice principles of recognition, distribution, and process. This paper establishes a conceptual linkage between “sustainable development”, “low‐carbon energy transitions” and “energy justice” and examines social priorities to address peoples' competing priorities associated with low‐carbon energy interventions. By analyzing a renewable energy project in Vietnam as a case study, the paper shows that linking social priorities to energy justice provides a useful contribution for energy policy makers toward a better understanding of the multidimensional and complex aspects of low‐carbon energy transitions, and how different segments of society prioritize and perceive them for the achievement of socially just energy decisions.
... The analysis of these works allowed us to identify that they cover different approaches within MIS, as presented in the "Purpose" column. As examples, Bovea and Pérez-Belis (2012), Patel et al. (2012) and Nielsen et al. (2016) carried out studies to evaluate the product development process; Zeng et al. (2007) and Chan and Chan (2004) developed studies to selection of projects, suppliers or resources; Doukas et al. (2007) and Madlener et al. (2007) presented research for sustainable innovation management decision with studies of new energy possibilities. ...
Sustainable innovation has gained prominence in recent years, due to the demands imposed by global competition, social pressures and the needs of consumers and the environment. Decision-making processes about sustainable innovation are complex and often require auxiliary instruments to reduce uncertainties. Multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods can be a useful tool to make these kinds of decisions more assertive. This article presents the main discussions and theoretical approaches through bibliometrics on the application of MCDA methods in the context of sustainable innovations. We used the R package Bibliometrix library to organize the data of the publications and perform the processing for the generated analyzes. The bibliometric analysis provided an overview about the use of MCDA in sustainable innovations (MIS) and it presents citation analysis; identification of central authors through co-citation analysis; main topics, conceptual structure and thematic evolution of the literature by co-word analysis. As main results, we identified the main trends in MIS: there has been a substantial increase in publications on this theme, and the most explored focuses are “product development, production and distribution” and “environmental or social impact assessment” and there is an opportunity to further explore the focuses of “evaluation or selection of projects, suppliers or resources”, “product life cycle management or assessment” and “definition of decision criteria and standards for sustainable innovation performance”. In addition, several MCDA tools have been successfully used for studies of sustainable innovations, demonstrating that there is no preferable method to use for a given focus.
... In a few cases, social, socio-technical, or distributive indicators (which often have to be analyzed in a non-model-based way) are addressed [21,27,28]. Studies either use numeric calculation models for indicator analyses [20,[29][30][31] or qualitative, expert-, or stakeholderbased procedures [22,32,33], whereas combined approaches hardly exist. ...
Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.
... In this endeavor, citizens often face substantial impediments in their efforts to be gain influence in energy policymaking. In order to overcome such limitations, participatory energy planning is becoming increasingly common [62,63]. However, long-term engagement of citizens was difficult to replicate in a Thailand-wide exercise. ...
Public participation is an increasingly common pathway for democratizing policymaking, but it is often executed in only symbolic and perfunctory ways. To reach its full potential as a method for empowering society in the policymaking process, public participation should foremost be viewed as legitimate by participants. This article empirically examines public participation through three types of legitimacy – representative, process, and influence – that give the exercise democratic effect. The case context, energy policy in northern Thailand as part of the country’s regional energy development plan, is an instructive example of public participation that has been newly introduced into a policy system characterized by top-down centralization. This study documents the degree to which a ‘design thinking’ approach for participatory mechanisms helps produce policy input that reflects the concerns and ambitions of local stakeholders. The findings offer lessons for how legitimacy can be a pathway for public participation to support energy democracy.
... We can use thermodynamics to assess how effectively and efficiently a renewable DE system works. Technical criteria, such as technical maturity, safety, reliability and self-sufficiency, should be primarily considered in the evaluation (Mamlook et al., 2001;Yu et al., 2006;Madlener et al., 2007;Chatzimouratidis and Pilavachi, 2008;Wang et al., 2009;Twidell and Weir, 2015). ...
Energy development concerns not only the development of renewable energies but also the shift from centralised to clean, decentralised power generation. The development of decentralised energy (DE) is a core part of the energy and economic strategies being adopted around the world that drives the progress toward a highly sustainable future. This paper reviews the concepts, development status, trends, benefits and challenges of DE systems and analyses the existing models and methods for assessing the performance of these systems. A hierarchical decision model for evaluating the performance of DE systems is also constructed based on the framework of multiple criteria decision analysis, which considers the identification, definition and assessment grade of decision criteria. The evidential reasoning approach is applied to aggregate assessment information in a case study of the implementation of an intelligent decision system. Sensitivity and trade-off analyses are also conducted to show how the proposed model can be used to support decision making in DE systems.
... Instead of trying to predict the future, scenarios are possible descriptions of what the future might look like. Scenario development (or "analysis" or scenario planning) is a systematic method to creatively think about dynamic, complex and uncertain futures, and identify strategies to prepare for a range of possible outcomes [16,17]. The scenarios could focus on identifying "favorable futures" in which people wish to work or "unfavorable futures" that people might want to avoid or at least be prepared to face them. ...
Preparing a plan for reaction to a grave emergency is a significant first stage in disaster management. A group of experts can do such preparation. Best results are obtained with group members having diverse backgrounds and access to different relevant data. The output of this stage should be a plan as comprehensive as possible, taking into account various perspectives. The group can organize itself as a collaborative decision-making team with a process cycle involving modeling the process, defining the objectives of the decision outcome, gathering data, generating options and evaluating them according to the defined objectives. The meeting participants may have their own evidences concerning people’s location at the beginning of the emergency and assumptions about people’s reactions once it occurs. Geographical information is typically crucial for the plan, because the plan must be based on the location of the safe areas, the distances to move people, the connecting roads or other evacuation links, the ease of movement of the rescue personnel, and other geography-based considerations. The paper deals with this scenario and it introduces a computer tool intended to support the experts to prepare the plan by incorporating the various viewpoints and data. The group participants should be able to generate, visualize and compare the outcomes of their contributions. The proposal is complemented with an example of use: it is a real case simulation in the event of a tsunami following an earthquake at a certain urban location.
... Additionally, the concept of including electric vehicles (EV) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) was discussed by Lund and Kempton in [18], where they identified that including EV and V2G to the system allows the inclusion of more wind electricity without surplus production, and thus reduces the carbon emissions. Descriptive renewable-focused energy scenarios developed in quantitative and qualitative terms for Austria was suggested by Madlener et al. in [19]. ...
Sector coupling is one of the emerging topics in recent energy and climate change policy discussions. It can play a significant role in creating the pathway of a renewable-based energy system in the European energy sector. The North Sea region is very likely to play a key role in the transition to a sustainable energy system. Although different energy modelling approaches allow a versatile use, they lead to the problem of an unclear understanding of specific aspects of sector coupling, and the relevance of existing tools and techniques to model and analyze such a system. This paper is aimed at providing a comprehensive understanding of sector coupling and its incorporation in energy system models. Following a thorough literature review on sector coupling and energy system modelling, the paper outlines an approach to select an appropriate tool based on the specific rationales of the research. The paper also presents the open energy modelling framework, ‘Oemof’, as an open model tool to address the complex challenges of energy systems. The conclusions from the literature review provide a detailed understanding of the concept of sector coupling and indicate that it can be advantageous from the viewpoints of decarbonization, flexibility, network optimization, and system efficiency. To solve the coupling barriers, diversified techno-socio-economic circumstances should be taken into account through the use of model collaboration. It is also demonstrated how a list of appropriate tools for model collaboration can be picked up methodologically from an available wide range of models. Finally, ‘Oemof’ is hypothesized as a progressive tool to design a sector-coupled and renewable-based energy system in the North Sea region.
... Additionally, the concept of including electric vehicles (EV) and Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) was discussed by Lund and Kempton in [18], where they identified that including EV and V2G to the system allows the inclusion of more wind electricity without surplus production, and thus reduces the carbon emissions. Descriptive renewable-focused energy scenarios developed in quantitative and qualitative terms for Austria was suggested by Madlener et al. in [19]. ...
Sector coupling is one of the emerging topics in recent energy and climate change policy discussions. It can play a significant role in creating the pathway of a renewable-based energy system in the European energy sector. The North Sea region is very likely to play a key role in the transition to a sustainable energy system. Though different energy modelling approaches allow a versatile use, they lead to the problem of an unclear understanding of specific aspects of sector coupling, and the relevance of existing tools and techniques to model and analyze such a system. This paper is aimed at providing a comprehensive understanding of sector coupling and its incorporation in energy system models. Followed by a thorough literature review on sector coupling and energy system modelling, the paper outlines an approach to select an appropriate tool based on the specific rationales of the research. The paper also presents ‘Oemof’ as an open model tool to address the complex challenges of energy systems. The conclusions from the literature review provide a detailed understanding of the concept of sector coupling and indicate that it can be advantageous from the viewpoints of decarbonization, flexibility, network optimization, and system efficiency. To solve the coupling barriers, diversified techno-socio-economic circumstances should be taken into account through the use of model collaboration. It is also demonstrated how a list of appropriate tools for model collaboration can be picked up methodologically from an available wide range of models. Finally, ‘Oemof’ is hypothesized as a progressive tool to design a sector-coupled and renewable-based energy system in the North Sea region.
... However, the interconnectedness in the energy systems implies that multiple technologies need to be combined into mixes or portfolios. Some authors investigated citizen preferences for full mixes, including realistic resource or technical limitations [7][8][9][31][32][33][34]. While multiple studies found high citizen support for low-carbon alternatives, very few studies focused on low-and zero-carbon mixes [9,35]. The formation of citizen preferences for full technology mixes relies on balancing the pros and cons of multiple technologies, and previous research showed that citizens can make informed trade-offs when presented with the information and decision support [7,9,20,33,34,36]. ...
For a successful transition to low-carbon electricity supply, public support is essential. Citizen preferences are best understood in the process of informed citizen panels, where citizens are informed about the pros and cons of various electricity technologies and spend time reflecting on the trade-offs. We investigated how information about electricity technologies and their sustainability impacts can change citizens’ preferences and affect for the complete Swiss electricity mix 2035. The citizens received information as factsheets and, during workshops, discussed in groups and built their preferred electricity mix using an interactive tool. The informed citizen panel (N = 33) in the Swiss city of Geneva showed high support for domestic renewable technologies and end-use efficiency, as well as low support for net electricity import, natural gas, and nuclear power. Preferences and affect for unfamiliar technologies changed after receiving information and remained stable even in the longer term four weeks after. Preferences and affect for already familiar technologies, like hydropower, barely changed. The same procedure in the two Swiss cities of Geneva and Zurich (N = 46) enabled the identification of robust support for renewable technologies and efficiency with only minor context-specific differences.
... Internal scenarios comprise only key factors from the decision field and thus can be influenced. In energy scenarios, internal scenarios can be alternative power system configurations, such as decentral or central (see, e.g., Madlener et al., 2007;Browne et al. (2010); Diakoulaki and Karangelis (2007) External scenarios comprise only key factors from outside of the decision field and thus cannot be influenced. For example, in a power system, power supply and demand always need to be balanced. ...
The transition from the current electricity system to a renewable electricity supply poses immense economic, technological, and policy challenges. Energy system models represent the complexity of interactions in combined processes from extraction of primary energy to the use of the final energy to supply services and goods. While these models were originally focused on energy security and costs, climate change, as the most pressing environmental concern as well as sustainability in general require the consideration of a broader range of decision-relevant aspects. In this context, scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making can complement energy system analysis in the development and evaluation of energy scenarios. Therefore, we propose a combination of these three methods and illustrate it in a case study that investigates the transition of the electricity sector in Lower Saxony, Germany, to energy from renewable sources. The results of our case study show that the integration of multi-criteria analysis allows for better Problem structuring by focusing on relevant alternatives, external uncertainties, and evaluation criteria. The integration of scenario planning allows for a systematic investigation of external uncertainties. Thereby, the fallacy of investigating particular assumptions for uncertain parameters, which are however not consistent with the assumptions in the scenario, can be avoided. Finally, combining the methods allows for a more balanced and objective evaluation of alternative energy systems in terms of multiple criteria, which can be used to inform discussions among stakeholders and may thus increase acceptance.
... Cetinay [38] used optimization method in the determining the wind energy potential and optimal wind farm located in Turkey. Madlener, et al. [39] defined the contribution of renewable energy sources in heat and electricity generation as a national and international scope for sustainable growth. They used PROMETHEE technique as a MCDM method and assessed five renewable energy situations in Austria for 2020. ...
In Turkey, current energy generations are not sufficient for the existing energy needs and besides, energy demand is expected to increase by 4–6 percent annually until 2023. Therefore, the government aims to increase the ratio of renewable energy resources (RES) in total installed capacity to 30 percent by 2023. By this date, total energy investments are expected to be approximately $110 billion. Turkey is the fastest growing energy market among the OECD countries. Therefore, Turkey is an attractive market for energy companies and investors. At this stage, site selection and deciding appropriate RES are the most important feasibility parameters for investment. In this study, “Site Selection in Turkey” issue for RES (solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, biomass) is evaluated by the ELECTRE which is one of the Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. In addition, the reasons for choosing this method are explained according to the literature. The study emphasizes the importance of energy generation from renewable and sustainable sources and is concerned with improving the position of the country. The Turkish government offers many purchasing guarantees and high incentives, especially in the renewable energy sector. As a result of the analysis, the most suitable energy sources are presented according to the geography and energy potential of the regions. The study aims to inform energy firms and everyone related with RES about Turkey’s RES opportunities.
... The transition towards a sustainable renewable energy supply calls for multi-criteria decision support to assess relevant technologies, since sustainability evaluations are often characterized by goal conflicts (Munda 2008;Madlener et al. 2007). Energy fuels are required for the provision of heat, electricity, and mobility (Martín-Gamboa et al. 2017;Strantzali and Aravossis 2016;Mardani et al. 2017), and numerous, alter-native pathways exist to provide such fuels (Bohanec et al. 2017). ...
Investment and policy decisions in the context of sustainable development are classic application areas for multi-criteria decision analysis. Ranking various pathways, i.e. conversion routes, for biomass use in the energy sector is particularly challenging. Depending on how ecological, economic, and social criteria are weighed, a multi-criteria decision analysis can lead to significantly contrasting recommendations. In this paper, we present a decision support for eleven energy pathways using decision criteria drawn from all three sustainability dimensions—ecological, economic, and social. For the graphical presentation of the relatively large number of pathways and criteria weightings, we introduce a novel visualization approach that combines the results of both PROMETHEE I and II. This visualization approach permits stakeholders to quickly and intuitively gather insights about the result structure and the consequences of different input parameters, for instance different criteria weightings.
A R T I C L E I N F O Keywords: Decarbonization Liquid air energy storage Variable renewable energy Petrochemical industry Stochastic scenario Generative AI Explainable AI A B S T R A C T In alignment with climate change mitigation plans, renewable and sustainable energy integration into the industrial sector should be investigated for decarbonization purposes by 2050. This study aims to examine the feasibility of decarbonization of mega-scale industrial parks with two emerging technologies; first, an integrated energy system involving an air separation unit (ASU) and a liquid air energy storage (LAES)-based power generation system (ALPG) with the assistance of a large-scale liquified natural gas (LNG) plant and second, the green electricity predicted by various renewable energy (VRE) scenarios using an AI-driven generative model concerning techno-economic and environmental analyses. Firstly, the electricity demand of mega-scale petrochemical industrial complexes was allocated, and remote sensing data of VRE (wind and solar) were collected in South Korea. Then, the ALPG was modeled to consider the actual operation of an LNG plant near target complexes. Subsequently, the CC-informed VRE scenario generation model (CC-VRES) based on an adversarial autoencoder (AAE) algorithm was developed to generate VRE scenarios considering the CC effects. Finally, techno-economic and environmental assessments were conducted to target the mega-DIP by 2050. The results showed that the levelized cost of electricity of the proposed ALPG was 150 $/MWh, which is enough to supply the required sustainable electricity, considering the Korean energy plan and CC effects in the CC-VRES model. Therefore, the excess VRE can be used to decarbonize the target industrial parks; it is anticipated that 26,084 GW h/yr of renewable and sustainable electricity will be generated and cover the total electricity demand of Yeosu and Ulsan target complexes while reducing 13,943-kilo t CO 2 eq./yr through 2050.
As each day passes by the world’s NT requirements increase due to increasing population and technological advancements. Currently, traditional technologies are inadequate to support the requirement. It is vital to investigate cost-effective and suitable green environmental technologies as a response. Future connectivity(5G, 6G), programming, artificial intelligence and new technologies might be a resolution to this resource crisis in this setting. Now, choosing amongst the most suitable option present itself as a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) challenge in which a judgment must be made in terms of a wide variety of characteristics. In this paper, the extended MCDM strategies are proposed to optimizing new technologies implementation. The novelty of the Fuzzy Hypersoft (FHS) set is discussed, which can deal with uncertainties, vagueness, and unclear data. This framework is more flexible than the structures found in literature as it can deal with the information where the attributes can be further sub-partitioned into attribute values for a better understanding. It may not always be possible to analyze these criteria using precise figures; instead, an assessment must be made using human and expert judgments for a more adaptable and sensitive review. The adaptive MCDM design with fuzzy edges incorporates Entropy (EN), Similarity Measure (SIM), and TOPSIS techniques rely on FHS. The conveyed frameworks are better for probing NT issues because they analyze a more expansive range of attributes, which can handle a component with multiple different sub-attribute values. Expert ratings are used to demonstrate a practical application to highlight the relevance of the proposed approach. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is done to investigate the impact of primary criterion weights in sorting.
With the fast increase in technological development and society's needs, using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) as a solution to tackle problems faced during a project's life cycle in different engineering fields gains interest. The use of artificial intelligence gave new opportunities to deal with problems faced during the optimization of unknown or known solutions and methods. Even more, the application of optimized solutions can be developed or modified by using different optimization approaches and methods. This paper proposes a model for the project selection process for non-profit organizations that have a limited budget and social factors strictly related to the selection process. This method is based on MCDM and takes into consideration criterion weights and experts' evaluation of projects according to the selection criteria using the hygiene method consisting of two stages, fuzzy logic, and TOPSIS.
Optimal hybrid renewable microgrids Sustainable development Techno-econo-socio-environmental model Water-energy-carbon nexus A B S T R A C T Combined technological, economic, sociological, and environmental (TESE) models can play a unique role in leveraging renewable energies and supporting sustainable development. Yet, a multi-aspect TESE model has never been used in Korea to adapt to climate change through sustainable energy policies. This comprehensive TESE study addresses several sustainability challenges in the Korean energy sector. First, demand electricity is predicted using four deep and stacked neural networks to develop a smart demand-based model. Second, optimal hybrid renewable microgrids (HRMGs) are simulated at 17 sites to evaluate five renewable energy sources in three scenarios. Third, hybrid assessment results are clustered using a K-means algorithm to generate hybrid renewable energy maps for South Korea. Fourth, the TESE model is analyzed with more than 13 variables using a cascading multi-criteria decision-making approach to prorate a budget and develop a prioritized roadmap for a sustainable 2030 in Korea. Fifth, a stochastic linear mathematical model is developed to propose a sustainable energy policy that considers the water-energy-carbon nexus. The results show that a convolutional neural network can efficiently predict sequential demand electricity (R 2 = 98.79%), with respective biogas, solar, hy-drostatic, wind, and hydrokinetic energy fractions of 45.7%, 34.5%, 14%, 5.78%, and 0.01% under optimal conditions in Korea. The present free market-based policies are recommended to be revised in favor of domestic production of renewable energy facilities if new jobs can be created for more than 83/ton CO 2-eq in Korea.
Sustainable electricity generation is at the pole position for global
sustainable development. The purpose of this research is to develop a
systematic framework for assessing sustainability of different electricity generation technologies, and present its application on Pakistan, which is a region with research gaps. Hydro and oil with a sustainability impact score of 0.59 and 0.39, respectively, were identified as the top and bottom sustainability performers. Gas, solar PV, wind, and coal scored 0.54, 0.52, 0.52, and 0.42, respectively. Gas is suggested as a bridging fuel for transition to a 100% renewable energy scenario by 2050. Contributions include formulation of a holistic electric generation sustainability assessment approach, and a sustainable transition pathway for Pakistan region to guide future policy making.
Renewable energy sources (RESs) have become increasingly significant in optimising the energy structure, protecting the ecological environment, and achieving sustainable economic and social developments. The residential sector is one of the major energy consumption industries. Choosing an appropriate RES technology for a residential building can be regarded as a multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) problem, and the preferences of inhabitants regarding the renewable energy alternatives of a residential building should be considered. However, the previous literature on MCGDM did not consider the social relationships between experts. To address these challenges, we propose a cognitive fuzzy social participatory allocation network (SPAN) method considering the empathetic preferences (EPs) of experts. The cognitive fuzzy set is used by experts to depict fuzzy and uncertain information. Given that the traditional SPAN method is easily influenced by personal self-evaluations when aggregating evaluation information, we incorporate the traditional SPAN method with the EPs of experts to make the decision results more objective. A case study concerning the evaluation of RES technologies is presented to verify the practicability of the proposed model. The method is efficient, since the economic, environmental, technological, and social factors regarding the selection of RES technologies for residential buildings are included.
Sustainable development demands no depletion of energy resources that have lower environmental impact, that are available at reasonable costs and that do not have negative social impacts. Because of the multi-dimensionality of this sustainable goal multi – criteria methods have become popular in sustainable decision-making processes. In this paper, we have developed a model for decision makers to rank small hydropower projects according to multiple criteria. The proposed model ranks projects based on technical, economic, social, and environmental criteria. The model is supported by two multi-criteria decision analysis methods: PROMETHEE (to rank projects) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (to determine the weights of main criteria). It is observed that the most important criteria are found to be the investment safety, legal obstacles and the amount of flow and the flow pattern. The proposed model is successfully tested on the example of 24 small hydropower plants. Highest ranked projects are those were criterion “annual production” was the highest and with the lowest scores in environmental aspect criteria. The presented model can give objective standpoint to decision makers, energy policies designers and energy planners.
Land use, woodland and forestry policy continues to evolve in response to unfolding economic, social and environmental challenges and opportunities. Concerns about integration across the stakeholder landscape impacting delivery and implementation of policy are common. Competing public and private sector stakeholder goals, narratives and actions are problematic. Developing insights from a recent case study, we uncover fragmentation in narratives, tensions in priorities, and misunderstandings at multiple levels between stakeholders. We identify the corrective influence of ‘dissociative jolts’ to trigger stakeholder's self-realisation of the extent of their unintentionally diverse interpretations of policy. These ‘dissociative jolts’ moments triggered open discussion, debate and reflexive questioning by the participants, enabling them to constructively contest their differences. In doing so, the participants were able to challenge and deconstruct their assumptions, reconstruct and develop new, shared understanding without trauma or denial. The structured mechanisms and formalisms of the intuitive-logics scenario planning approach provided a psychologically safe space with openness and equality of input to surface, explore, question and defragment stakeholder assumptions and narratives. The outcome of this defragmentation process was the collective recognition of failure, if the situation did not change, the dissolution of observed tensions conflicts and dilemmas, and the negotiated agreement for future action by the diverse stakeholder group.
This study performs a model-based multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for supporting policy makers in Greece, in designing energy-efficiency policies through the selection of the most effective measures, towards sustainable development. The impact assessment of energy-efficiency measures is based on their macroeconomic, environmental and social implications. Such an evaluation of a quite large number of energy-efficiency measures, regarding both the building and the transport sector and based also on the combination of PROMETHEE and SIMOS methods while performing a sensitivity analysis, is not available in the international literature. The analysis deploys three energy-efficiency co-benefits, derived from energy models and input-output analysis, as well as the cost-effectiveness and the technical feasibility of each measure. This combination of MCDA with input-output analysis is another innovation of the study. The final ranking revealed that, generally, measures in buildings are more effective than those in transportation, while significant differentiations between residential and commercial buildings emerged.
The paper presents an agent‐based modeling and simulation approach to model the forest fuel supply chain for heating purposes (i.e., heating plants). The paper focuses on the simulation of the processes of timber harvesting by forest enterprises and the competition of heating plants for the limited resource of wood chips. In particular, the work identifies different stakeholders having an adaptive behavior—with respect to the overall market conditions and timber prices. The agent‐based model developed here—called SimFoMa—uses three types of agents—forest enterprises, heating plants, and traders. The agents are interacting in an environment that has rich information on the forests and road network. The SimFoMa model is applied to a test area, the province of Carinthia, Austria. We defined six different simulation scenarios that cover different market situations—from increasing timber prices, volatile market conditions, or decreasing market conditions—and evaluated the harvest patterns, transport distances and the forest itself. The paper utilizes the agent‐based modeling methodology to model the agent's adaptive behavior of the forest fuel supply chain and to model the competition of heating plants for forest fuels. To evaluate this phenomena we mainly analyze transport distances of the simulation runs. For the test area of Carinthia, the experiments show that the behavior of small forest owners influences the supply of forest fuels. Timber prices not meeting the expectations of small forest owners might not motivate them to produce timber and forest fuels. On the long run the overall forest fuel supply does not meet the demand in the test area Carinthia—hence it relies on biomass imports. Furthermore, we witnessed increasing transport distances from harvest site to heating plant.
Recommendations for Resource Managers
• The results of the spatial Agent‐based simulation of the forest fuel market with agents competing for the limited resource forest biomass show that transport distances for forest fuels can vary and may increase over time. Hence, the planning of the forest fuels supply and the respective transport distances is crucial to reduce the carbon footprint of the timber for heating purposes.
• As small forest owners produce timber on a more irregular basis (based on the price in the market), the motivation of small forest owners is crucial for the steady supply of biomass for heating purposes—for the case of Carinthia.
• In the long run it is not possible to fulfill the demand of biomass for heating purposes for Carinthia, without imports of timber. Again, crucial is the motivation of small forest owners to produce timber.
The current financial and economic crisis, as well as the wider socioeconomic and environmental pressures, including climate change among others, put seriously into question the traditional development patterns. This is particularly true for the local and regional authorities, who face a number of challenges as regards growth, jobs and sustainability. These pressures create high expectations for coordinated actions and holistic interventions to address comprehensively the problems toward a competitive economy. In this context, this Chapter describes the main issues of the decision making in local energy planning. The policy context and relevant initiatives are outlined. A detailed review of existing methodologies for local energy planning, as well as standard techniques and methods (participatory approach, aspiration level, multi-criteria decision support, robustness analysis, indicator-based assessment frameworks) are presented. The need to support the local and regional authorities in the decision-making process for the development, implementation and monitoring of their Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plans, especially within the framework of the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy (a first-of-its-kind global initiative of cities and towns) is highlighted.
The selection among renewable energy alternatives is a fuzzy multicriteria problem with many conflicting criteria under uncertainty. In many decision-making problems, the Decision Makers (DM) define their preference in linguistic form since it is relatively difficult to provide exact numerical values during the evaluation of alternatives. Therefore, in many studies, fuzzy logic is successfully used to model this kind of uncertainty. In this chapter, the authors try to capture this uncertainty by using interval type-2 fuzzy sets and hesitant fuzzy sets. They propose a fuzzy multicriteria method for the evaluation of renewable energy alternatives, in which the priority weights of the criteria are determined by interval type-2 fuzzy AHP, and the alternatives are ranked using hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS. A case study is also given.
Discussions on the energy transition preceded the question of how to solve conflicts on the construction of the corresponding infrastructure. These conflicts regularly turn into wicked problems. To see how such conflicts might be solved in a participatory, democratic and sustainable fashion, we analysed six cases on wind power projects in the region of Lower Austria for their participatory qualities. Most of them turned out not to have met criteria of contemporary democratic theory. Our conclusion is that in order to live up to these demands, discussion processes have to be much more open, inclusive and discursive than they are.
This paper presents an evaluation of four energy transition scenarios under consideration of multiple stakeholder opinions. We construct a multi-criteria group decision model that applies Value-Focused Thinking to construct a holistic objective system and uses Multi-Attribute Utility Theory to evaluate the energy transition scenarios. Although the individual scenario evaluations show that the opinions of the stakeholders towards a sustainable energy transition differ largely, we are able to identify three main strands of opinions among the considered stakeholders. By bundling the stakeholder interests by employing a k-means clustering technique, we derive detailed policy recommendations for a sustainable energy transition. For the case of Germany, these are to reduce GHG and pollutant emissions and at the same time enable citizens’ participation, limit the visual impact on landscapes, and ensuring internationally comparable energy-related political frameworks for the economy. For the case of a sustainable energy transition in Germany, we find that the stakeholders considered prefer either the highly ambitious Climate Protection scenario (Scenario B) or the Pan-European scenario (Scenario C). The main novelties of the study are that stakeholders are included in every step of the decision-making process and that very comprehensive energy transition scenarios, comprising the electricity, transport, heat, and industry sectors, are considered.
For decades, energy has prevailed as a critical policymaking concern at national and international levels.
Today, energy systems, the global markets and their trends are more complex, and it is crucial for any
nation or organization which seeks to grow its share in the energy markets to develop insights about
potential future trends and changes. Although Iran has one the largest natural gas reserves in the world,
it currently contributes little to international market supply and recently has targeted the enhancement
of its role in the market. To achieve this, it must carefully consider the complexity of existing global
energy markets and how they are likely to evolve in the future. Here, we develop and discuss a novel
scenario synthesizing model to address the inherent uncertainty of the energy future. The model starts
with a structured environmental analysis step to establish the meaningful driving forces and other influences
on the natural gas global markets. The influences identified are then categorized under four
classes: critical uncertainties, driving forces, descriptive, and neutral (which are removed from the
study). Applying a simulation-based method, a layered scenario development model is constructed to
develop plausible scenarios for two feature classes: critical uncertainties and driving forces. The developed
scenarios are then combined to generate possible scenario streams. A third layer simulation is
applied to generate final plausible scenarios. As a final step, scenarios are clustered to define relatively
independent scenario streams, and each is discussed using descriptive features.
Keywords:
Natural gas export
Scenario development
Scenario simulation
Global energy market
Iran
Energy policy making is a complex, multidisciplinary process that usually requires the assessment of a large number of factors. Consequently, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, which is a sub-discipline of Operational Research, has long been employed as an approach to addressing problems of this domain. This paper aims to explore how the preference disaggregation-aggregation paradigm, which infers a preference model from given global preferences on a set of reference alternatives, can support decision making in energy policy design and implementation. In this direction, a detailed literature review of multicriteria analysis applications in this domain is conducted, in which a knowledge gap regarding preference disaggregation approaches can be observed. The UTASTAR model is, then, described in detail and implemented in an energy policy application regarding the potential development of clean electricity projects through the cooperation between European Union member states and 22 neighbouring countries with which the Union has already established ties towards economic and energy market integration. The results of the study show that European countries outside the Union feature better potential for hosting clean energy projects compared to Middle East and North African countries; finally, the analysis suggests that UTASTAR can also provide concrete insight into the criteria weighting dynamics, as inferred by the global preferences of the decision makers.
This paper presents an evaluation of the provision of Ecosystem Services (ES). The analysis is based on the design of a framework suitable to be translated into a multi-criteria evaluation process, followed by empirical testing. It focuses on the different categories of ES and applies a set of non-overlapping indicators available from existing statistical sources. The framework is applied in a traditional cultural landscape, the Province of Ferrara, situated in the Emilia-Romagna region of Italy. To develop an applicable framework, we have chosen a set of ES indicators from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. According to the results and based on the indicators used in each category, the provision of cultural and provisioning services is high in all of the municipalities, while there is greater diversity in the provision of regulating and supporting services. A key challenge in our analysis was related to the lack of information on the actual provision of ES at the municipality level, which led to a significant use of proxy indicators. Use of improved datasets, explicit consideration of policy scenarios and accounting for local priorities about ES provision have been identified as the most relevant avenues for future research in this area.
Renewable energy is essential for the world economy and the current and future generations’ welfare, and it contributes in a balanced way to attain the general goal of energy security and environmental protection. However, there are also challenges and barriers to the deployment of renewable energy generation, distribution and consumption, including technical, economic, cultural and financial challenges. In order to understand and overcome the challenges and barriers of promoting the growth of renewable energy, it is important to model, analyse and assess the cost-effectiveness, and societal and environmental impact of various renewable energy solutions systemically. This chapter aims to review relevant performance modelling, impact assessment and decision analysis techniques for renewable energy systems.
Energy consumption increases all over the world as a result of industrialization in recent years. In this context, it has become important to meet increasing energy demand. It is significant to find alternative energy sources because of limited nonrenewable energy sources such as coal, petroleum, and natural gas. At this point, renewable energy sources have an important role to meet energy requirement. As a result, decision and policy making for energy is completely critical issue for countries. Various technical, economic, environmental, and social criteria are used to solve energy policy and decision-making problems such as evaluation of energy projects, selection among energy alternatives, power plant site selection, and determining energy policy. Multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) methods are used as effective tools to help decision makers while solving energy problems. There are a large number of studies including articles, conference papers, and book chapters, which examine energy problems by using MCDM methods in the literature. Therefore, analyzing these studies according to different features such as publication year, MCDM method, document type, statistical analyses, country, and published journal can be beneficial for leading researchers who study in energy decision-making field. In this study, published papers, which use traditional MCDM methods to handle energy problems, are examined systematically. By the way, it is aimed to lead to researchers regarding MCDM methods which are utilized in energy applications. It also conducted some statistical analyses to obtain trends between years and MCDM methods. Besides, recent developments in energy field are presented through this comprehensive literature review.
This chapter presents a review of multi criteria decision models used in the energy sector and demonstrates application through the case of geothermal energy. The case is taken from Oregon which is located in teh pacific northwest region of the US. Experts are used to determine the criteria what is important for this application and the region.
An iterative procedure is suggested to evaluate and improve the energy system design. The procedure considers the information deriving from complementary evaluation approaches, each applied within its appropriate time-space window of interest: (a) Process-related, local-scale methods (Energy, Exergy and Thermoeconomic analyses); (b) Environmental assessment methods (Impact Assessment, Emergy Synthesis); (c) Economic methods (Micro- and Macro-Economic and Externality Evaluations). Process-related methods are applied first, in order to provide local-scale performance indicators able to suggest optimization procedures from a user-side point of view. Environmental evaluation approaches are then used to judge the overall environmental quality of the design, in the largest regional and biosphere scales. Finally, micro- and macro-economic evaluation approaches are applied in order to ascertain the soundness of the proposed solution as far as the economic return on the investment as well as global benefits to the Society are concerned. New choices for the design configuration and parameters may be suggested by implementing the iterative procedure. A cogeneration system working in a town of Northern Italy is used as a case study: starting from the present configuration of the plant, modifications are suggested and evaluated, thus identifying the way for improving the performance under various viewpoints. A proposal for plant transformation from Steam Cycle to Combined Cycle is suggested, capable of increasing the plant electric power from 136 to 332MWe, increasing the energy efficiency from 60 to 63%, increasing the exergy efficiency from 37 to 49%, and decreasing the overall demand for environmental support (transformity) from 1.84×105 to 1.27×105seJ/J. The paper points out several benefits and bottlenecks of the existing plant and of the proposed solutions.
Work in Progress 1. Motivation und zentrale Fragestellung Um eine nachhaltige Energieversorgung zu gewährleisten, ist die österreichische Energiepolitik neben der Energieeffizienz auch auf die kontinuierliche Steigerung erneuerbarer Energieträger gerichtet. Die aktive Berücksichtigung erneuerbarer Energietechnologien in politischen Strategien (z.B. in der österreichischen Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie und der österreichischen Klimastrategie) weist auf ihre wichtige Rolle zur Erreichung einer nachhaltigen Energieversorgung als auch auf ihr Potential zur Eindämmung von Treibhausgasen hin. Daher hat die österreichische Bundesregierung das ehrgeizige Vorhaben formuliert, den Anteil der erneuerbaren Energieträger von 23 % im Jahr 2004 auf 45 % im Jahr 2020 zu verdoppeln (BMLFUW, 2006). Im Zuge dieser angestrebten Verdopplung ist es wichtig, die erwarteten Auswirkungen der verschiedenen erneuerbaren Energietechnologien (z.B. feste Biomasse, Biogas, Windenergie, Solarthermie, Photovoltaik) auf Umwelt, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft quantitativ abzuschätzen. Das EdZ-Projekt "Erneuerbare Energie in Österreich: Modellierung möglicher Entwicklungsszenarien bis 2020" widmet sich dieser Quantifizierung, indem verschiedene erneuerbare Energieszenarien entwickelt und mit einem integrierten Wirtschafts-Energie-Umwelt-Modell (E3-Modell) simuliert werden. Die Analyse fokussiert auf die Wärme-und Strombereitstellung, der Transportsektor wird nicht berücksichtigt. In diesem Beitrag stellen wir zunächst das Simulationsmodell vor. Danach beschreiben wir in ihren Grundzügen die erneuerbaren Energieszenarien, die in einem partizipativen Prozess entwickelt wurden. Mit einem Ausblick auf die weiteren Projektschritte und Schlussfolgerungen schließen wir unsere Ausführungen.
Based on an interdisciplinary perspective the role of wood as a carbon sink, as a multi-purpose material, and as a renewable
energy source for the net reduction of greenhouse gases is discussed. We synthesize aspects from engineering, natural and
social sciences to better understand the role of wood substitution in CO2 mitigation. We also formulate some recommendations on filling knowledge gaps that could be useful for policy making regarding
how wood substitution could be further expanded. There are sufficient wood resources to substantially increase the use of
wood for material and energy purposes. However, a number of factors hinder a wider use of wood for energy and material purposes.
Furthermore, an analysis of wood substitution is a very complex issue, since the substitution influencing factors are to be
found along the entire wood supply chain and involve several industries, socio-economic and cultural aspects, traditions,
price dynamics, and structural and technical change. To improve the knowledge about wood as a substitute for other resources
and the implications, it would be helpful to better integrate research from different disciplines on the subject and to cover
different scales from a project to an economy-wide level.
Bioenergy is considered to be an attractive option mainly due to driving forces of an environmental nature (e.g. climate change and sustainability issues). This is particularly the case for energy crops, which show higher productivity per land unit than their conventional counterparts. In addition, by comparison, such crops are more homogeneous in terms of their physical and chemical characteristics than residual resources that are often described as the biomass resource of the future. However, despite the long-term research and the considerable efforts to promote them, implementation is still rather slow across Europe. In this paper, two perennial energy crops, cardoon and giant reed, are evaluated in Rodopi, northern Greece, as alternative land use, through comparative financial appraisal with the main conventional crops.Based on the output of this analysis, the breakeven for the two energy crops is defined and an economic and socio-economic evaluation of a biomass district heating system is conducted.Results prove that energy crops can be attractive alternatives if they are properly integrated into existing agricultural activities and complement the current cropping options. As such, they provide raw material for local heat applications, thus resulting in increased income for the region and an increase in the number of jobs.
It is clear that the future is not simplysomething already predetermined that we must acceptblindly: rather, it is open and to a large extent determinedby the course of actions we decide to take. For thisreason, we need to look at the future and its uncertaintiesin an articulated fashion, developing specific tools toconsider both how the future might unfold if we do notact and how we might like the future to unfold if actionwere to be taken.As demonstrated on valuable intellectual exercise forlooking into an uncertain future involves the developmentof “scenarios” intended as logical and plausibleconjectures about how fundamental drivers will affectglobal societies, economics, resource use and theenvironment. The literature review shows a multiplicity ofscenarios, conducted as different scales ranging from thenational to the global scale, with different time horizonsand with a focus on different strategic issues.Exploratory scenarios help prepare for events that,without representing a straight-line continuation of pasttrends, are plausible and entirely possible. Exploratoryscenarios can help a lot to accelerate and calibrate theresponse to new developments, as well as providing astrategic framework technology development policy.Normative scenario has, as its goal, the evolution of adesirable future rather than a future inexorably imposedupon us by the inertia of system. Building a normativescenario requires the creators to clearly define thedesirable characteristics of their future, and to expressthis future in terms of measurable targets.The use of such a scenario process lies as much in theissues it requires us to comfort as the precise details isgenerates. The future will not look exactly like the oneenvisioned: other priorities will intercede and nationalconditions and circumstances will dictate the specifics ofthe energy policies that may be adopted. But such aprocess of interacting around scenarios can providevaluable guidance as to what we must do – collectivelyand individually – to achieve the set policy goals.
Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP), the aggregate impact of land use on biomass available each year in ecosystems, is a prominent measure of the human domination of the biosphere. We present a comprehensive assessment of global HANPP based on vegetation modeling, agricultural and forestry statistics, and geographical information systems data on land use, land cover, and soil degradation that localizes human impact on ecosystems. We found an aggregate global HANPP value of 15.6 Pg C/yr or 23.8% of potential net primary productivity, of which 53% was contributed by harvest, 40% by land-use-induced productivity changes, and 7% by human-induced fires. This is a remarkable impact on the biosphere caused by just one species. We present maps quantifying human-induced changes in trophic energy flows in ecosystems that illustrate spatial patterns in the human domination of ecosystems, thus emphasizing land use as a pervasive factor of global importance. Land use transforms earth's terrestrial surface, resulting in changes in biogeochemical cycles and in the ability of ecosystems to deliver services critical to human well being. The results suggest that large-scale schemes to substitute biomass for fossil fuels should be viewed cautiously because massive additional pressures on ecosystems might result from increased biomass harvest.
• biomass
• global environmental change
• human impact
• biosphere
• land use
Although wind energy has the green image, the location of windfarms is always a source of local conflicts. Opposition may depend on the extensive land use of windfarms, their possible impacts on tourism or their visual impact, as well as NIMBY (Never In My Back-Yard) behavior. On the other hand, some social actors are normally in favor of wind parks because they perceive them as a possibility of development or simply a source of income. In these situations, the management of the energy policy process involves many layers and kinds of decisions, and requires the construction of a dialogue process among many social actors, individual and collective, formal and informal, local and non-local. This implies that the political and social framework must find a place in evaluation exercises. This is the objective of social multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE). In this article, SMCE is proposed as a general framework for dealing with the problem of wind park location. The major strength of SMCE is the possibility of integrating both socio-economic and technical dimensions inside a coherent framework. A real-world case study is used as an illustrative example.
Erneuerbare Energien stellen eine wesentliche Möglichkeit zur Sicherstellung einer nachhaltigen und umweltfreundlichen Energieversorgung dar. Über die zukünftige energiewirtschaftliche Bedeutung einzelner Technologien zur Nutzbarmachung des regenerativen Energieangebots in Österreich bestehen allerdings oft unterschiedliche Meinungen. Das Ziel dieses Buches ist es deshalb, Informationen zur Analyse und Bewertung dieser Technologien zusammenzustellen, um so die notwendigen Grundlagen für zukünftige Entscheidungen über die weitergehende Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien in Österreich bereitzustellen. Es werden hier erstmals alle in Österreich nutzbaren Möglichkeiten regenerativer Energien auf der Basis der gleichen methodischen Vorgehensweise anhand der wesentlichen energiewirtschaftlichen Kriterien (d. h. Potenziale, Kosten, Umwelteffekte) analysiert und vergleichend gegenübergestellt. Das Buch bietet dabei sowohl dem Leser ohne Vorkenntnisse als auch dem Fachmann mit fundierten Kenntnissen im Bereich der erneuerbaren Energien eine Vielzahl neuer Aspekte, die erstmalig in dieser Kompaktheit und Vollständigkeit für Österreich vorliegen.
The human appropriation of net primary production (NPP) significantly alters the energy flow of ecosystems. The NPP-appropriation, defined as the difference between the NPP of the hypothetical undisturbed vegetation and the amount of biomass currently available in ecological cycles, is investigated for the 99 political districts of Austria (1990). Calculations are based on data for land-use, forestry, yield, and climate. Total aboveground NPP of the actual vegetation was found to be 7% less than that of the potential natural vegetation. Additionally, 34% of potential production is harvested, resulting in a total reduction of ecologically available aboveground NPP of 41%. Since this could have significant ecological effects, e.g. on biodiversity, it is of potential interest for strategies of sustainable development, indicators for stresses on the environment, and the environmental effects of increased utilization of biomass.
The PROMETHEE Methods are particularly appropriate to treat multicriteria problems of the following type: (1.1) for which A is a finite set of possible alternatives and fj(x), j = 1, 2,…,k a set of k evaluation criteria.
Earths resources are consumed by one of its 5-30 million species homo sapiens or man at a rate disproportionately greater than any other species. Mans impact on the biosphere is measured in terms of net primary production (NPP). NPP is the amount of energy remaining after the respiration of primary producers (mostly plants) is subtracted from the total amount of biologically fixed energy (mostly solar). Human output is determined by 1) the direct NPP used for food fuel fiber or timber which yields a low estimate 2) all NPP of cropland devoted to human activity and 3) both 1) and 2) and land conversion for cities or pastures as well as conversion which results in desertification and overuse of lands. This last output determination yields a high estimate. Calculations are made for global NPP and each of the 3 estimates of low intermediate and high human output. Data are based on estimates by Ajtay et al. Armentano and Loucks and Houghton et al. and on the Food and Agriculture Organizations (FAO) summaries. Petagram (Pg) is used to calculate organic matter; this is equivalent to 10 to the 15th power grams or 10 to the 9th power metric tons. Carbon has been converted to organic matter by multiplying by 2.2. Matter in kilocalories has been converted to organic matter by dividing by 5. Intermediate or conservative estimates have been included. The standard of biomass is 1244 Pg and an annual NPP to 132.1. The NPP of marine and freshwater ecosystems is considered to be 92.4 Pg which is a low estimate. The low calculation of human (5 billion persons) consumption of plants at a caloric intake of 2500 kilocalories/person/day is .91 Pg of organic matter which equals .76 Pg of vegetable matter. The global production of human food is 1/7 Pg for grains and for human and livestock fed or .85 Pg of dry grain material and .3 Pg in nongrain dry material with dry grain material and .3 Pg in nongrain dry material with a subtraction of 20% for water content. 34% or .39 Pg is lost to waste and spoilage. Consumption by livestock forest usage and aquatic ecosystems is computed. The overall estimate for human use if 7.2 Pg of organic matter/year or 3% of total NPP/year. The intermediate figures take into account cropland pastureland forest use and conversion; the overall estimate of human use is 42.6 Pg of NPP/year of 19.0% (42.6/224.5) of NPP (30.7% on land and 2.2% on seas). The high estimate yields human use of 58.1 Pg/year on land or 40% (58.1/149.6) of potential land productivity or 25% (60.1/149.8 + 92.4) of land and water NPP. The remaining 60% of land is also affected by humans. The figures reflect the current patterns of exploitation distribution and consumption of a much larger population. These patterns amount to using >50% of NPP of land; there must be limits to growth.
This paper reports an innovative foresighting study which constructed a set of hydrogen futures and pathways to them, in order to inform the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy. Combining backcasting and multi-criteria appraisal the authors developed a participatory expert stakeholder-led methodology to build and appraise a set of visions, which sought to acknowledge the diversity of possible hydrogen futures and contested claims as to their sustainability. A set of transition scenarios were then developed exploring the dynamics and governance of the large-scale socio-technical changes that would be required for the emergence of the different visions. While aspects of this project have been reported elsewhere, this paper seeks to: (1) locate the work with respect to broader developments in the fields of foresight, expectations and socio-technical transitions to sustainability; (2) provide a description of the UKSHEC sustainable futures methodology; and (3) reflect on key insights for research and practice.
Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques are gaining popularity in sustainable energy management. The techniques provide solutions to the problems involving conflicting and multiple objectives. Several methods based on weighted averages, priority setting, outranking, fuzzy principles and their combinations are employed for energy planning decisions. A review of more than 90 published papers is presented here to analyze the applicability of various methods discussed. A classification on application areas and the year of application is presented to highlight the trends. It is observed that Analytical Hierarchy Process is the most popular technique followed by outranking techniques PROMETHEE and ELECTRE. Validation of results with multiple methods, development of interactive decision support systems and application of fuzzy methods to tackle uncertainties in the data is observed in the published literature.
In recent years, the threat of global climate change, high fuel import dependence, and rapidly rising electricity demand levels have intensified the quest for more sustainable energy systems. This in turn has increased the need for policy makers to promote electricity generation from renewable energy sources. Guaranteed prices coupled with a buy-back obligation for electricity fed into the grid is a popular renewables promotion instrument, especially in Europe. More recently, driven mainly by electricity market liberalisation efforts, quota targets for the share of renewables in combination with tradable ‘green’ certificates (TGC) have received considerable attention. TGC offer a greater theoretical potential for economic efficiency gains, due to price competition and the greater flexibility assigned to the obliged parties. While guaranteed prices and TGC schemes support the operation of renewable energy technology systems, bidding schemes for renewable energy generation capacity are used to raise economic efficiency on the plant construction side. All of these policy instruments suffer from the shortcoming that they do not explicitly account for the often widely varying environmental, social and economic impacts of the technologies concerned. In this paper, we propose a methodology for the design of renewable energy policy instruments that is based on integrated assessment. In particular, we argue that using participatory multicriteria evaluation as part of the design of renewable energy promotion policies would make it possible: (1) to differentiate the level of promotion in a systematic and transparent manner according to their socio-ecological economic impact, and (2) to explicitly account for the preferences of stakeholders. A further problem of existing TGC and bidding schemes is that diversity of supply could be severely diminished, if few low-cost technologies were allowed to dominate the renewable energy market. To ensure a certain diversity of technologies, our scheme suggests the use of different technology bands for technologies that are relatively homogeneous with respect to their maturity.
In this paper, we evaluate the relations between land-use and socio-economic metabolism and particularly, socio-economic biomass flows, by constructing four scenarios for Austria in 2020. The scenarios were established using a biomass-flow model for Austria which was developed for this analysis. The model distinguishes between 15 different kinds of land use and relates demand for biomass in Austria to biomass production in Austria, considering imports and exports as well as biomass conversions in industrial processing and in livestock. We discuss four scenarios: (1) a trend scenario, based upon an extrapolation of current trends; (2) a scenario assuming the far-reaching liberalization of agricultural markets; (3) a scenario in which biomass utilization for energy and industry is maximized; and (4) a scenario based upon the approach of “cascade utilization” of biomass. We find that increasing the use of biomass as an energy source might have considerable unwanted ecological effects including, among others, a reduction in the functioning of forests as a terrestrial carbon sink.
In a decision aiding context, knowing the preferences of the Decision Maker (DM) and determining weights of criteria are very hard questions. Several methods can be used to give an appropriate value to the weights of criteria. J. Simos proposed a very simple procedure, using a set of cards, allowing to determine indirectly numerical values for weights. The purpose of this paper is first to explain why the above method needs to be revised, and second, the revised version we propose. This new version takes into account a new kind of information from the DM and changes certain computing rules of the former method. A software has been implemented based on the revised Simos' procedure whose main features are presented in this paper. The new method has been applied to different real-life cases (public transportation problems, water resources problems, environment problems, etc); it proved to be successful.
This paper analyses the combined use of scenario building and participatory multi-criteria analysis (PMCA) in the context of renewable energy from a methodological point of view. Scenarios have been applied increasingly in decision-making about long-term consequences by projecting different possible pathways into the future. Scenario analysis accounts for a higher degree of complexity inherent in systems than the study of individual projects or technologies. MCA is a widely used appraisal method, which assesses options on the basis of a multi-dimensional criteria framework and calculates rankings of options. In our study, five renewable energy scenarios for Austria for 2020 were appraised against 17 sustainability criteria. A similar process was undertaken on the local level, where four renewable energy scenarios were developed and evaluated against 15 criteria. On both levels, the scenario development consisted of two stages: first an exploratory stage with stakeholder engagement and second a modelling stage with forecasting-type scenarios. Thus, the scenarios consist of a narrative part (storyline) and a modeled quantitative part. The preferences of national and local energy stakeholders were included in the form of criteria weights derived from interviews and participatory group processes, respectively. Especially in the case of renewable energy promotion in Austria, the paper systematically analyses the potentials and limitations of the methodology (1) for capturing the complexity of decision-making about the long-term consequences of changes in socio-economic and biophysical systems and (2) for appraising energy futures. The paper concludes that assessing scenarios with PMCA is resource intense, but this methodology captures successfully the context of technology deployment and allows decision-making based on a robust and democratic process, which addresses uncertainties, acknowledges multiple legitimate perspectives and encourages social learning.
In this study, nine different electricity generation scenarios have been compared from a sustainability standpoint using an appropriate MCDA (Multicriteria Decision Aid) method. These scenarios consist of selected combinations of generation technologies and policy measures. A set of eleven criteria has been established to evaluate the performances of the scenarios along the three main "axes" of sustainability economy, ecology and society. A group of ten stakeholder representatives was formed to accompany the study. They participated in the scenario selection, the criteria definition and the fixing of their relative importance. For this last – always critical – process, a new approach has been devised and tested successfully. The results of the study show that the members of the accompanying stakeholder group privilege the scenario promoting (in a limited way) the use of renewable energies, with accompanying demand-side management measures and no anticipated retirement of the existing nuclear power.
Integrierte Nachhaltigkeitsbewertung von Energieszenarien
- L Bohunovsky
- R Madlener
- I Omann
- M Bruckner
- S Stagl
Bohunovsky, L., Madlener, R., Omann, I., Bruckner, M. and Stagl, S., 2007. Integrierte Nachhaltig-keitsbewertung von Energieszenarien, Ökologisches Wirtschaften, Heft 2 (April): 47-50
Renewable Energy Market and Policy Trends in IEA Countries
- Iea
IEA, 2004. Renewable Energy. Market and Policy Trends in IEA Countries. IEA/OECD, Paris
Verordnung des Bundesministers für Wirtschaft und Arbeit, mit der Preise für die Abnahme elektrischer Energie aus Ökostromanlagen auf Grund von Verträ- gen festgesetzt werden, zu deren Abschluss die Ökostromabwicklungsstelle in den Kalender-jahren 2006 und 2007 verpflichtet ist
- Green
- Electricity
Green Electricity Ordinance, 2006. Verordnung des Bundesministers für Wirtschaft und Arbeit, mit der Preise für die Abnahme elektrischer Energie aus Ökostromanlagen auf Grund von Verträ- gen festgesetzt werden, zu deren Abschluss die Ökostromabwicklungsstelle in den Kalender-jahren 2006 und 2007 verpflichtet ist (Ökostromverordnung 2006). BGBl. II Nr. 401/2006 vom 24. Oktober 2006
Verordnung des Bundesministers fu¨ und Arbeit, mit der Preise fu¨ Abnahme elektrischer Energie aus O ¨ kostromanlagen auf Grund von Vertra¨ festgesetzt werden
- Green Electricity
- Ordinance
Green Electricity Ordinance, 2006. Verordnung des Bundesministers fu¨ und Arbeit, mit der Preise fu¨ Abnahme elektrischer Energie aus O ¨ kostromanlagen auf Grund von Vertra¨ festgesetzt werden, zu deren Abschluss die O ¨ kostromabwicklungsstelle in den Kalenderjahren 2006 und 2007 verpflichtet ist (O ¨ kostromverordnung 2006). BGBl. II Nr. 401/2006 vom 24. Oktober 2006.
Energieszenarien für Österreich bis 2020
- K Kratena
- M Wüger
Kratena, K., Wu¨, M., 2005. Energieszenarien fu¨ sterreich bis 2020. Monograph No. 93, Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Vienna, July.
forthcoming. Socio-economic impacts of energy crops for heat generation in Northern Greece, Energy Policy (this issue) Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning—a review
- C Panoutsou
- S D Pohekar
- M Ramachandran
Panoutsou, C., forthcoming. Socio-economic impacts of energy crops for heat generation in Northern Greece, Energy Policy (this issue) Pohekar, S.D., Ramachandran, M., 2004. Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning—a review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 8 (4), 365–381.
Strategien zur weiteren Forcierung erneuerbarer Energieträger in Österreich unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des EU-Weissbuches für erneuerbare Energien und der Campaign for Take-off
- R Haas
- M Berger
- L Kranzl
Haas, R., Berger, M., Kranzl, L., 2001. Strategien zur weiteren Forcierung erneuerbarer Energietra¨ in O ¨ sterreich unter besonderer Beru¨ -tigung des EU-Weissbuches fu¨fuë Energien und der Campaign for Take-off, Studie der TU Wien im Auftrag des BMWA und BMLFUW, Juli.
Shell global scenarios to 2025. The future business environment: trends, trade-offs and choices
- Shell
- R In
- Madlener
Shell, 2005. Shell global scenarios to 2025. The future business environment: trends, trade-offs and choices, June. ARTICLE IN PRESS R. Madlener et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 6060–6074 6073
Nachhaltige Entwicklung integrativ betrach-tet
- J Kopfmuï
- V Brandl
- J Jo¨
- M Paetau
- G Banse
- R Coenen
- A Grunwald
Kopfmuï, J., Brandl, V., Jo¨, J., Paetau, M., Banse, G., Coenen, R., Grunwald, A., 2001. Nachhaltige Entwicklung integrativ betrach-tet. edition Sigma, Konstitutive Elemente, Regeln, Indikatoren, Berlin.
Anwendung einer multikriteriellen Entscheidungshilfe für die Beurteilung nachhaltiger Energie-Technologien in Deutschland
- K Kowalski
Kowalski, K., 2002. Anwendung einer multikriteriellen Entscheidungshilfe fu¨ Beurteilung nachhaltiger Energie-Technologien in Deutschland. Master's Thesis, University of Vienna, Vienna.
Energieszenarien bis 2020
- K Kratena
- S Schleicher
Kratena, K., Schleicher, S., 2001. Energieszenarien bis 2020, Studie des O ¨ sterreichischen Instituts fu¨ (WIFO) im Auf-trag des BMWA und BMLFUW. O ¨ sterreichisches Institut fu¨, Wien, April.
Erneuerbare Energien in O ¨ sterreich
- J Neubarth
- M Kaltschmitt
Neubarth, J., Kaltschmitt, M. (Hrsg.), 2000. Erneuerbare Energien in O ¨ sterreich. Systemtechnik, Potenziale, Wirtschaftlichkeit, Umweltas-pekte. Springer, Wien/New York.
Erneuerbare Energie in O ¨ sterreich: Modellierung mo¨ Entwick-lungsszenarien bis 2020 Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems (GEMIS) Version 4.1 for Austria Biofuels in the transport sector in Austria in 2004. Summary of information from the Republic of Austria in accordance with Article
- A Stocker
- A Grossmannstocker
- A Grossmann
- R Madlener
- M I Wolter
Stocker, A., GrossmannStocker, A., Grossmann, A., Madlener, R., Wolter, M.I., 2007. Erneuerbare Energie in O ¨ sterreich: Modellierung mo¨ Entwick-lungsszenarien bis 2020. Proceedings of the 5th International Energy Economics Conference at the Vienna University of Technology (IEWT 2007), 16–18 February 2007. UBA, 2004a. Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems (GEMIS) Version 4.1 for Austria. Umweltbundesamt, Wien. UBA, 2004b. Biofuels in the transport sector in Austria in 2004. Summary of information from the Republic of Austria in accordance with Article 4(1) of Directive 2003/30/EC for the reporting year 2003. Federal Environmental Agency on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, the Environment and Water Management, Vienna, June.
absolute (PJ) -Scenario A 17
- Article In
- Heat
ARTICLE IN PRESS Heat, absolute (PJ) -Scenario A 17.8 0.4 12.3 149.9 3.6
total Sewage gas CHP Geothermal, Electr. Electricity, increase rel. to BAU (GWh) -Scenario B Small hydropower
- Chp Biogas
- Chp Biomass
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Biogas CHP, total
Biomass CHP, total
Biomass Electr., total
Sewage gas CHP
Geothermal, Electr.
Electricity, increase rel. to BAU (GWh) -Scenario B
Small hydropower (<10 MW)
Summary of Scenarios A--E: additional electricity from renewables, in absolute terms and relative to BAU
Fig. 4. Summary of Scenarios A--E: additional electricity from renewables, in absolute terms and relative to BAU
2002 (in GWh)
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Summary of scenarios A--E: heat energy from renewables, in absolute terms and relative to BAU
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Fig. 3. Summary of scenarios A--E: heat energy from renewables, in absolute terms and relative to BAU 2002 (in
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Electricity, absolute (GWh) -Scenario A
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