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Coastal Flooding and Wetland Loss in the 21st Century: Changes Under the SRES Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios
Abstract
This paper considers the implications of a range of global-mean sea-level rise and socio-economic scenarios on: (1) changes in flooding by storm surges; and (2) potential losses of coastal wetlands through the 21st century. These scenarios are derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Four different storylines are analysed: the A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 ‘worlds’. The climate scenarios are derived from the HadCM3 climate model driven by the SRES emission scenarios. The SRES scenarios for global-mean sea-level rise range from 22 cm (B1 world) to 34 cm (A1FI world) by the 2080s, relative to 1990. All other climate factors, including storm characteristics, are assumed to remain constant in the long term. Population and GDP scenarios are downscaled from the SRES regional analyses supplemented with other relevant scenarios for each impact analysis.
... Wetland functions can be overwhelmed in areas of heavy human activities (Mitsch & Gosselink, 2007) and since these activities have always exploited the productivity of wetlands, their overexploitation has become an increasing problem (Ramsar Convention, 2018). Wetlands are under increasing threat (Owino & Ryan, 2007) and despite their importance, globally they are shrinking at a rate faster than other ecosystems, especially in developing countries (Nicholls, 2004) mainly due to human activities (Jacob et al., 2014). Researchers have different estimates for the extent of global wetland depletion. ...
... Researchers have different estimates for the extent of global wetland depletion. Nicholls (2004) estimates it as 50% since 1900, whereas Hu et al. (2017) put the global loss at 33% since 2009. Kingsford et al. (2016) asserts that about 70% of the world's wetlands is already destroyed or impaired and based on existing data in several regions, Davidson (2014) also asserts that not only is 87% of the world's wetlands degraded since 1700 but also these degradations occurred mostly in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. ...
... With an area of about 7-9 million km 2 , accounting for about 4-6% of the land surface, wetlands play a very important role in human life, including about 45% of the natural value of ecosystems (Costanza et al. 1997;Mitsch and Gosselink 2000). Despite the importance of wetlands, about 50% of the world's wetlands have been lost since the 1900s, of which mangrove forests account for the majority (Nicholls 2004). In Vietnam, the area of mangroves has also been significantly reduced, with about 4/5 of the total mangrove area disappearing between 1943and 2003(IUCN, 2012. ...
... Despite the importance of wetlands, about 50% of the world's wetlands have been lost since the 1900s, of which mangrove forests account for the majority (Nicholls 2004). In Vietnam, the area of mangroves has also been significantly reduced, with about 4/5 of the total mangrove area disappearing between 1943and 2003(IUCN, 2012. Therefore, monitoring the current status and assessing seasonal fluctuations in mangrove ecosystems are considered the basis for developing management, monitoring, and conservation measures for them (Pellegrini et al. 2009). ...
Mangroves are estuarine and coastal ecosystems strongly influenced by the local tidal regime and climate, so there is a strong variation between seasons of the year. Assessing seasonal characteristics and fluctuations allows for an understanding of changes in mangrove ecosystems during each period of the year. In this study, we used images collected from the Multispectral Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) to determine the current status and fluctuations between summer and winter of the mangrove area of Dong Rui commune according to five vegetation indicators, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI), and Green Chlorophyll Index (GCI). The results show that the current state of mangroves in the UAV flight area is relatively good, with the value of vegetation indicators at a high level. In the summer, the value of vegetation indicators is stable and higher than in the winter. In low-tide areas, vegetation index values fluctuate higher than in high-tide areas. Based on the results of the analysis of vegetation indicators, the degree of correlation between NDVI and the remaining four values was determined. The results showed that the correlation coefficient was at a high level, with the highest being between NDVI and SAVI with a correlation coefficient of approximately equal to 1, followed by NDVI and EVI with a correlation coefficient above 0.9. We propose that UAV is an effective tool for monitoring and assessing fluctuations, serving the management and conservation of mangrove ecosystems.
... Coastal marshes are among the most important and functional ecosystems on Earth, as they are able to buffer and protect from storm surges and winds (Farber, 1987;Möller et al., 2014;Haddad et al., 2016;Peter Sheng et al., 2022;Temmerman et al., 2023), store carbon (Saintilan et al., 2013;Nahlik and Fennessy, 2016;Rogers et al., 2019), and offer natural habitat to wildlife (Galbraith et al., 2002;Minello et al., 2003). However, it has been estimated that since the 1900s around 50 % of coastal wetlands have been lost (Nicholls, 2004). The resilience of present coastal wetlands is altered by accelerated sea level rise (Cahoon et al., 2006;Spencer et al., 2016;Schuerch et al., 2018), enhanced subsidence due to groundwater and oil extraction (Syvitski et al., 2009), and depleted sediment supply to the coast as a result of extensive river damming (Syvitski et al., 2005). ...
... Values of 65 and 35 m 1/2 s −1 were set for ocean and marsh platform respectively, whereas 45, 55, and 65 m 1/2 s −1 were evaluated for the tidal channels/lakes/bays. The selected values fall within the range adopted by several modeling studies of coastal marshes and deltas (e.g., Edmonds and Slingerland, 2010;Nardin et al., 2013;Stark et al., 2015;Zhang et al., 2019). ...
Coastal marsh survival relies on the ability to increase elevation and offset sea level rise. It is therefore important to realistically model sediment fluxes between marshes, tidal channels, and bays as sediment availability controls accretion. Traditionally, numerical models have been calibrated and validated using in situ measurements at a few locations within the domain of interest. These datasets typically provide temporal information but lack spatial variability. This paper explores the potential of coupling numerical models with high-resolution remote sensing imagery. Products from three sensors from the NASA Delta-X airborne mission are used. Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) provides vertical water level change on the marshland and was used to adjust the bathymetry and calibrate water fluxes over the marsh. AirSWOT yields water surface elevation within bays, lakes, and channels, and was used to calibrate the Chezy bottom friction coefficient. Finally, imagery from AVIRIS-NG provides maps of total suspended solids (TSS) concentration that were used to calibrate sediment parameters of settling velocity and critical shear stress for erosion. Three numerical models were developed at different locations along coastal Louisiana using Delft3D. The coupling enabled a spatial evaluation of model performance that was not possible using simple point measurements. Overall, the study shows that calibration of numerical models and their general performance will greatly benefit from remote sensing.
... Flood damage constitutes about a third economic losses imposed by natural hazards worldwide after earthquake and tsunami (Winsemius etal.2013). The major environmental disasters in Africa are recurrent droughts and floods (Nicholls, 2004). Between 2000 and 2008 East Africa including Ethiopia has experienced many episodes of flooding (OFDA/CRED, 2008). ...
... Importantly, the magnitude of global coastal migration is influenced by the SLR scenarios and the socioeconomic scenarios. The effect of future socioeconomic development influences flood risks in terms of population exposure, their vulnerability to SLR, and their ability to provide protection (Nicholls, 2004;Dada et al., 2023), as reflected here by the total number of migrants. Coastal population projections for the different scenarios are markedly affected by global regions, with higher increases under the SSP3-7.0 ...
Sea-level rise (SLR) through the twenty-first century and beyond is inevitable, threatening coastal areas and their inhabitants unless there is appropriate adaptation. We investigate coastal flooding to 2100 under the full range of IPCC AR6 (2021) SLR scenarios, assuming plausible adaptation. The adaptation selects the most economically robust adaptation option: protection or retreat. People living in unprotected coastal areas that are frequently inundated (below 1-in-1-year flood level) are assumed to migrate, and the land is considered lost. Globally, across the range of SLR and related socioeconomic scenarios, we estimate between 4 million and 72 million people could migrate over the twenty-first century, with a net land loss ranging from 2,800 to 490,000 km². India and Vietnam consistently show the highest absolute migration, while Small Island Developing States are the most affected when considering relative migration and land loss. Protection is the most robust adaptation option under all scenarios for 2.8% of the global coastline, but this safeguards 78% of the global population and 91% of assets in coastal areas. Climate stabilisation (SSP1–1.9 and SSP1–2.6) does not avoid all coastal impacts and costs as sea levels still rise albeit more slowly. The impacts and costs are also sensitive to the socioeconomic scenario: SSP3–7.0 experiences higher migration than SSP5–8.5 despite lower SLR, reflecting a larger population and lower GDP. Our findings can inform national and intergovernmental agencies and organisations on the magnitude of SLR impacts and costs and guide assessments of adaptation policies and strategies.
... The coastal zone, representing the intersection of land and sea, encompasses a unique ecosystem and is abundant in natural resources, including fisheries, minerals, renewable energy sources, and valuable tourism opportunities [1][2][3][4][5]. These resources are vital for human survival and development [6][7][8]. ...
Coastal zones, which serve as transitional areas between land and sea, possess unique ecological values. Sandy coasts, celebrated for their distinctive natural beauty and ideal recreational settings, have garnered significant attention. However, uncontrolled human activities can exacerbate erosion or even trigger more severe erosion along these coasts. This study utilizes unmanned aerial photography and typical beach profile survey data collected from the main areas of Wanmi Beach over the past eight years to quantify annual changes in beach erosion and elucidate the erosion characteristics and their variations across different shore profiles. Additionally, the impact of various types of human activities in different regions is analyzed, revealing the erosion patterns prevalent in the main areas of Wanmi Beach. The findings indicate that the eastern research area (ERA) has been in a continuous state of erosion, primarily due to a reduction in sediment supply in the region, with severe erosion observed on the foreshore of Fengxiang Beach and Wanmi Bathing Beach (WBB). In contrast, the central research area (CRA), particularly around Yangjiao Bay, has experienced significant siltation in recent years, with the highest siltation volume recorded between 2021 and 2023, totaling 90,352.91 m³. Nevertheless, the foreshore areas at both ends of the research area, distant from Yangjiao Bay, have been subject to erosion. The western research area (WRA) is notably impacted by surrounding aquaculture activities, leading to alternating periods of erosion and siltation on the beach surface. Consequently, due to the influence of human activities on different shore profiles, most of Wanmi Beach, except for the area near Yangjiao Bay, is experiencing erosion.
... Urban coastal areas face various risks because of climate change, with sea-level rise (SLR) and flooding posing significant hazards [1]. Sea-level rise increases the risk of flooding in coastal cities, causing infrastructure damage, loss of residential areas, and economic losses [2,3]. Extreme weather events such as storms and hurricanes, combined with rising sea levels, have the potential to create physical, social, and economic problems in coastal cities [4,5]. ...
Projected sea-level rise and floods due to climate change impacts are the hazards threatening urban coastal areas. In the literature on mitigation and adaptation, it is determined that studies in the field of architectural design for the assessment of risks and vulnerabilities to these hazards are not yet at a sufficient level. This study aims to determine the vulnerability indicators of buildings due to architectural design decisions in the urban coastal areas facing the risk of sea-level rise and flood hazards. In this direction, it is argued that the decisions that are taken regarding the building and its environment during the architectural design process can be interpreted as vulnerability indicators in vulnerability assessments of buildings to be made in the context of these hazards. In this context, an indicator-based assessment framework is proposed as a method of examining the vulnerability and climate resilience capacity of design practices in urban coastal areas. The first stage of the research methodology includes the results of a literature review to identify indicators of building vulnerability. In the second stage, these indicators were presented for expert opinions and analyzed with the Delphi method and an assessment framework was created. This assessment framework is designed to serve as a decision-making tool or checklist for decision makers, facilitating the integration of vulnerability indicators into the design, implementation, and retrofitting of buildings in urban coastal areas. Due to its hierarchical, yet flexible, and adaptable structure, it can be used by architects, urban planners, and policy makers in terms of assessing buildings and its environments so that actions for adaptation can be implemented.
... Global climate change impact is highly heterogeneous across different social-eco nomic-system. Nicholls (2004) and Nicholls and Tol (2006) found that development level and population growth are very important factors affecting climate vulnerabilities. The country development level heavily impacts on the general climate adaptation capacity and its exposure sensitivity to climate hazards. ...
... This phenomenon potentially contributes to massive disasters causing fatalities and major economic crises. In general, coastal inundation can occur suddenly because of extreme high-water events associated with storm surges, high tides, and flooding rivers (Nicholls, 2004). The effect of high tides can sometimes be compounded by heavy rainfall, leading to coastal inundation. ...
Integration of land and marine vertical datums is an important aspect of geospatial reference systems. Therefore, this study has been conducted to identify an optimum approach to integrate the marine and land vertical datums. Two hybrid geoid models have been developed and fitted to the the land levelling datum at benchmark and to the tide gauge-benchmark station (TGBM). The differences between the two hybrid geoid models were computed to establish a vertical datum transformation model (VDT). Among the 305 GNSS-levelling points, 295 have been used in the hybridization process and 10 have been used for validation. Based on the comparison, the geoidal differences at the 10 points range from −7.2 to 7.0 cm while the mean and RMSE of differences are 1.3 cm and ± 4 cm, respectively. The second hybrid geoid, which was fitted to local MSL, was developed by directly adding to the offset between the gravimetric geoid and local MSL at nine TGBM stations. The result indicates that the offset derived at Tanjung Gelang is the optimum one with an RMSE of ± 0.045 m. The VDT model developed shows a transformation accuracy of approximately ± 4 cm.
... Again, they are used for scientific experiments (Obiri-Danso et al., 2005), trading, fuel wood harvesting and hunting grounds (Kumi et al., 2015). Consequently, wetlands are under increasing threat (Mafabi, 2000;Owino & Ryan, 2007), and globally, are shrinking in size at a faster rate than other ecosystems, especially in developing countries (Nicholls, 2004) mainly due to the aforementioned human activities and usages (Jacob et al., 2014;Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). ...
... Consequently, an assessment of the relocation strategy is required by predicting the re-suspension and transport of the dredged material after disposal. Behind the background of future socioeconomic challenges, e.g., intensified use of coastal areas and growth of maritime traffic (Nicholls, 2004;Neumann et al., 2015) and climate-induced changes, e.g., sea level rise and increasing flood dominance (Wachler et al., 2020;Jordan et al., 2021;Timmerman et al., 2021), such assessments will only become more important in any harbor or waterways management strategies. In shallow coastal zones like the UNESCO world heritage Wadden Sea, a system of tidal flats and channels, sediment management has a direct impact on its morphology and thus is a crucial part of its present-day and future challenges (Wang et al., 2012;Timmerman et al., 2021). ...
Projections of the effects of fine sediment disposals, relevant for managed estuaries and tidally influenced coastal areas, are typically based on numerical far-field models. For an accurate consideration of the disposal itself, near-field models are often needed. The open source near-field model, PROVER-M, simulates the relevant processes of the physics based, dynamic behavior of disposed fine sediments in coastal waters and is applied in this study. First, new small scale laboratory experiments of instantaneous disposals are presented, documenting the dynamic behavior of fine material disposed in shallow waters. Second, results of the PROVER-M model are shown for disposals in three different settings: (1) a field-scaled study complementary to the laboratory set-up, (2) a parametric study of sequentially varied model input and (3) a far-field model coupling for estimation of the PROVER-M impact. By comparing results of the laboratory experiments to the PROVER-M model, the physical behavior of PROVER-M is successfully validated. The impact of the ambient setting and dredged material parameters is evaluated by the PROVER-M simulations, where the results show non-linear, complex interdependencies of the input parameters on disposal properties in dependence of ambient site conditions and material composition. In this context, limits of the model application are assessed and critically discussed. Finally, an exemplary coupling to a far-field model based on a real set of disposals in the tidally influenced Weser estuary (Germany) illustrates the potential impact of PROVER-M for assessing far-field suspended sediment concentration (SSC), with increased maximum SSC values of up to 10%.
... Combined with this phenomenon, climate change can also exacerbate ongoing pressures on coastal communities, such as increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events (Phillips & Crisp, 2010;Rangel-Buitrago & Anfuso, 2013), which can cause coastal flooding (Mcgranahan et al., 2007;Nicholls, 2004), induce sedimentary budget alterations (Esteves & Finkl, 1998), and result in underground water salinization (Su & Hock, 2016). Due to the projections for SLR, which can reach approximately 1 m in 2100 globally, the potential risks imposed on coastal communities and natural habitats are particularly significant in low-elevation areas (Hsiao et al., 2021;Li et al., 2020;Schuerch et al., 2018). ...
Salt marshes act as natural barriers that reduce wave energy during storm events and help protect coastal communities located in low-lying areas. This ecosystem can be an important asset for climate adaptation due to its particular capability of vertically accrete to adjust to long-term changes in water levels. Therefore, understanding marsh protection benefits thresholds in the face of sea-level rise (SLR) is important for planning future climate adaptation. In this context, the main goal of this manuscript is to examine how the storm protection benefits provided by salt marshes might evolve under SLR projections with different probability levels and emission pathways. In this study, a modeling framework that employs marsh migration predictions from the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) as parameterization into a hydrodynamic and wave model (ADCIRC + SWAN) was utilized to explicitly represent wave attenuation by vegetation under storm surge conditions. SLAMM predictions indicate that the SLR scenario, a combination of probability level and emission pathways, plays a substantial role in determining future marsh migration or marsh area loss. For example, results based on the 50% probability, stabilized emissions scenario show an increase of 45% in the marsh area on Maryland’s Lower Eastern Shore by 2100, whereas Dorchester County alone could experience a 75% reduction in total salt marsh areas by 2100 under the 1% probability, growing emissions scenario. ADCIRC + SWAN results using SLAMM land cover and elevation outputs indicate that distinct temporal thresholds emerge where marsh extent sharply decreases and wave heights increase, especially after 2050, and exacerbates further after 2080. These findings can be utilized for guiding environmental policies and to aid informed decisions and actions in response to SLR-driven environmental changes.
... Intensification of agricultural practices and rapid urbanization have led to a loss of about 35% of natural wetlands since the 1970s on a global scale (Hu et al., 2017), while constructed wetlands have increased by 233%. The changing climate has its impact as well, due to the decrease in fresh water available and the rise in sea level, 1% of Ramsar inland wetlands and 20% of coastal wetlands are expected to be lost in future (Nicholls, 2004, Cizkova et al., 2013, Moomaw et al., 2018, Xi et al., 2021. ...
... Notably, a substantial portion of the world's population resides in coastal areas, with approximately 44% living within a distance of 150 km from a coastline (Syvitski et al. 2005). However, coastal regions are increasingly vulnerable to marine geohazards under the influence of combined human and natural factors (Pilkey et al. 1993;Nicholls 2004;Letortu et al. 2012;Masselink 2014;Chaumillon et al. 2017). This particularly applies to densely populated and highly urbanized lowlands that are designated as high-risk areas for coastal hazards (IPCC 2001). ...
Coastal regions are often exposed to marine floods, usually generated by storm surge events. Each year, they are responsible for major losses in terms of lives and economic infrastructures. Numerical models are crucial to understand, assess, and forecast these consequences, especially in the absence of direct observations of these hazardous events. The present study evaluates the impact of the two storms of January 7, 2014, and February 28, 2017, on the coast of El Jadida (Morocco), using Iber software on a high-resolution topo-bathymetric digital elevation model with wind, wave and tide as forcing parameters. It also predicts the effect of the same storms under future sea level rise projections for 2050 and 2100 under the RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The simulations reveal a total flood area (TFA) of 1.1 and 1.3 km² for the storms of 2014 and 2017, respectively. The maximum run-up was equal to 6.4 m, as a result of the 2017 storm. The impact of storms similar to the 2017 event will be more dangerous for the coast of El Jadida under future sea level rise. For the RCP 2.6 (optimistic scenario), the TFA will reach 1.7 km² associated with a run-up of 7.6 m in 2100. For the same period, the TFA and run-up under the RCP 8.5 scenario (pessimistic) are equal to 2 km² and 7.7 m, respectively. The obtained flood hazard maps show that several economic infrastructures, such as commercial parks, hotels and coffee shops are located in areas at risk of coastal inundation. These results underscore the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate future flooding risks along the coast of El Jadida.
... Global climate change impact is highly heterogeneous across different social-eco nomic-system. Nicholls (2004) and Nicholls and Tol (2006) found that development level and population growth are very important factors affecting climate vulnerabilities. The country development level heavily impacts on the general climate adaptation capacity and its exposure sensitivity to climate hazards. ...
This research aims to explore the fiscal and public finance viability on climate physical risk externalities cost for building social-economic-environmental sustainability. It analyzes climate physical risk impact on the real business cycle to change the macroeconomic output functions, its regressive cyclic impact alters tax revenue income and public expenditure function; This research also analyzes that the climate physical risk escalates social-economic inequality and change fiscal-financial policy functions, illustrates how the climate damage cost and adaptation cost distorts fiscal-finance cyclical and structural equilibrium function. This research uses binary and multinomial logistic regression analysis, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method (DSGE) and Bayesian estimation model. Based on the climate disaster compensation scenarios, damage cost and adaptation cost, analyzing the increased public expenditure and reduced revenue income, demonstrates how climate physical risk externalities generate binary regression to financial fiscal equilibrium, trigger structural and cyclical public budgetary deficit and fiscal cliff. This research explores counterfactual balancing measures to compensate the fiscal deficit from climate physical risk: effectively allocating resources and conducting the financial fiscal intervention, building greening fiscal financial system for creating climate fiscal space.
... Coastal floods caused by severe storm surges are highly dangerous and economically destructive to coastal regions [8,9]. An estimated 200 million people worldwide are currently at risk of coastal flooding [10], and their number is expected to increase in the 21st century [11]. ...
Urbanization and climate change are two major challenges of the 21st century, and the effects of climate change, combined with the urbanization of coastal areas, increase the frequency of coastal flooding and the area exposed to it, resulting in increased risk of flooding and larger numbers of people and properties being vulnerable. An urban growth modeling system was used to simulate future growth scenarios along the coast of the Vendée region in western France, and the potential exposure to flooding with each scenario was evaluated. The model used was an Artificial Neural Network combined with a Markov Chain, using data obtained by the remote sensing and geographic information system techniques to predict three future urban growth scenarios: business as usual, environmental protection, and strategic urban planning. High-risk flood areas and future sea level projections from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were then used to assess future flood risk under each growth scenario in the study area. According to the results, the different growth scenarios are associated with different development patterns, and the strategic urban planning scenario significantly reduces the risk of flooding compared to the other two scenarios. However, the rise in sea level considerably expands the areas vulnerable to flooding. Finally, the methodology adopted can be used to prepare for the impact of climate change and develop strategies to mitigate the risk of flooding in the future.
... Typhoon storm surges are characterized by intense atmospheric disturbances, which can induce abnormal water level rise in coastal areas, when combined with other factors, such as climate changeinduced rising sea levels. They pose significant threats due to their ferocity, speed, and destructive power (Nicholls, 2004;Mcgranahan et al., 2007), which have been responsible for the most damage in marine disasters (Berz and Islam, 2016;OIbert, A. I et al., 2017). The damages caused by storm surges, including dike breaches, inundation of farmland, loss of fisheries, housing collapses, and destruction of fishing vessels, have a profound impact on the daily lives of coastal residents and the local ecological environment. ...
In the context of global climate warming and rising sea levels, the frequency of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea region has shown a significant upward trend in recent years. Consequently, the coastal areas of the South China Sea are increasingly vulnerable to storm surge disasters induced by typhoon, posing severe challenges to disaster prevention and mitigation in affected cities. Therefore, establishing a multi-indicator assessment system for typhoon storm surges is crucial to provide scientific references for effective defense measures against disasters in the region. This study examines 25 sets of typhoon storm surge data from the South China Sea spanning the years 1989–2020. A comprehensive assessment system was constructed to evaluate the damages caused by storm surges by incorporating the maximum wind speed of typhoons. To reduce redundancy among multiple indicators in the assessment system and enhance the stability and operational efficiency of the storm surge-induced disaster loss model, the entropy method and bootstrap toolbox were employed to process post-disaster data. Furthermore, the genetic simulated annealing algorithm was utilized to optimize a backpropagation neural network intelligent model (GSA-BP), enabling pre-assessment of the risks associated with storm surge disasters induced by typhoon and related economic losses. The results indicate that the GSA-BP model outperforms the genetic algorithm optimized BP model (GA-BP) and the simulated annealing algorithm-optimized BP model (SA-BP) in terms of predicting direct economic losses caused by storm surges. The GSA-BP model exhibits higher prediction accuracy, shorter computation time, and faster convergence speed. It offers a new approach to predicting storm surge losses in coastal cities along the South China Sea.
... Natural Disaster has the potential to impair conflict, displace people, and destroy livelihoods, set-back development and the fight against poverty for millions of people across the world. It is estimated that over 20 million people in the Mekong Delta and 20 million in Bangladesh could be forced to move as their homes are affected by saltwater incursion from rising sea levels (Nicholls, 2004).As climate change creates new risks, better analysis and adaptation is needed to understand and minimize a new level of uncertainty. ...
More than 60% of the cropped area depends on rains brought about by the summer monsoon (80% of the total rainfall), which is a major cropping season in the country. Climate risks brought about by weather events such as late onset of rains, long dry spells during the monsoon season, early withdrawal of monsoon, heavy rainfall episodes, deficient winter rainfall, cold waves in December-January, and hailstorms and thunderstorms during March-May affect agriculture operations. This paper reviews the literature regarding climate-induced DRM and develops a policy framework for the agriculture sector. Nepal's plan, policy, strategy, and program do not consider DRM too much and are mostly engaged in response and recovery, ignoring preparedness. Only 4% of the budget is spent on preparedness, and 96% of the budget is spent on response and recovery (MOHA, 2018). Additionally, government investment in agriculture is only around 3–4% of the total budgetary resources. Agriculture production could increase if climate-induced risks are managed effectively using currently available tools and practices, such as integrating early forecasting into the management of agricultural operations.
... They are of paramount importance for maintaining ecosystem stability and preserving biodiversity [4][5][6]. Since 1900 AD, influenced by hydrometeorological natural factors and human activities, global wetland area has decreased by 50%, as a result, monitoring wetland dynamics and exploring the causes of wetland dynamic changes have become essential aspects of wetland research [7,8]. ...
Wetland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are pivotal for global ecology and regional sustainability, contributing significantly to terrestrial ecosystems by regulating runoff, mitigating floods, and enhancing water quality. This study investigates the dynamic changes in wetland ecosystems within the Chaidamu Basin and their response to drought, aiming to foster sustainable wetland utilization in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Using Landsat TM/ETM/OLI data on the Google Earth Engine platform, we employed a random forest method for annual long-term land cover classification. Meteorological drought conditions were assessed using SPEI3, SPEI6, SPEI9, and SPEI12, derived from monthly precipitation and evapotranspiration data. Pearson correlation analysis examined the relationship between wetland changes and various SPEI scales. The BFASAT method evaluated the impact of SPEI12 trends on wetlands, while cross-wavelet analysis explored teleconnections between SPEI12 and atmospheric circulation factors. Our findings revealed that the land cover dataset of the Chaidamu Basin (1990-2020) exhibited diverse categories with high classification accuracy (OA: 90.27%, Kappa: 88.34%). Wetlands, including lake, glacier, and marsh types, exhibited a noticeable increasing trend. Wetland expansion occurred during specific periods (1990-1997, 1998-2007, 2008-2020), featuring extensive conversions between wetland and other types, notably from other types to wetlands. Spatially, lake and marsh wetlands predominated in the low-latitude basin, while glacier wetlands were situated at higher altitudes. The study identified significant negative correlations between SPEI at various scales and total wetland area and types, with SPEI12 exhibiting the most substantial effect between September and December (r <-0.75) on wetlands. SPEI12 displayed a decreasing trend with non-stationarity and distinct breakpoints in 1996, 2002, and 2011, indicating heightened drought severity. Atmospheric circulation indices (ENSO, NAO, PDO, AO, WP) exhibited varying resonance with SPEI12, with NAO, PDO, AO, and WP demonstrating longer resonance times and pronounced responses.The continuous growth of wetlands amidst increasing aridification emphasizes the need for thoughtful wetland development to establish a sustainable "forest-lake-grass-field-river" ecological community. These findings underscore the significance of comprehending wetland changes and drought dynamics for effective ecological management in the Chaidamu Basin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
... Although some studies have evaluated coastal flooding risks using future SLR projections on a global scale (e.g. Nicholls 2004;Nicholls et al 1999;Balica et al 2012;Spencer et al 2016;Kulp and Strauss 2019), regional details necessary for understanding potential future flooding patterns are not captured in average global projections, potentially yielding different responses compared to regional-scale predictions (e.g. Aucelli et al 2017;Shaltout et al 2015;Vousdoukas et al 2016a;Zanetti et al 2016;Gusmão et al 2010). ...
In recent years, extensive research has been conducted on various aspects of climate change, with particular attention given to the sea level rise (SLR) as a significant consequence of global warming. Although a general trend of positive SLR exists worldwide, regional variations in SLR rates are observed. This study aims to investigate the potential impact of SLR projected by a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 model, under a 4.5 W m-2 radiative forcing stabilization scenario by 2100, on coastal flooding along the Brazilian Coast. To achieve this, an ocean numerical downscaling approach was employed using multiple nested grids with the Regional Ocean Modeling System, with a specific focus on the Guanabara Bay region. Guanabara Bay is a vital water body that receives substantial water discharges from the densely populated Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area. Two experiments were conducted simulating the present (1995–2005) and future conditions (2090–2100), and the projected changes were evaluated. The results reveal a projected SLR of 0.69 m at Fiscal Island by the end of the century, anticipating potential loss of remaining mangrove areas and the expansion and persistence of coastal flooding in important tourist destinations within the Rio de Janeiro Municipality. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the potential impacts of SLR on coastal flooding in the Brazilian Coast, emphasizing the importance of considering regional variations in SLR rates for effective coastal management and adaptation strategies.
... In the coming decades, regions closer to the equator are expected to see reduced crop yields due to more frequent and severe droughts (Lu et al., 2019). Conversely, areas farther from the equator are likely to experience warmer and wetter climate changes (Milly et al., 2002), potentially leading to increased flooding events and higher sea levels in high latitudes, posing a dramatical threat to coastal residents (Nicholls, 2004). Therefore, it is crucial to focus on sea level fluctuations in high-latitude coastal areas. ...
It is crucial to assess the nodal modulation for tides in high-latitude coast areas within the context of global warming. In this paper, five stations (Maloy, Rorvik, Andenes, Vardo, and Honningsvag) along the Norwegian coast are selected to analyze the nodal modulation using the S_TIDE toolbox, which is developed from the enhanced harmonic analysis method. Three criterions are proposed to determine the optimal number of independent points (IPs), a parameter in S_TIDE toolbox, and the decision steps are elaborated in detail. The optimal number of IPs is evaluated by comparing the primary and the hindcasts tidal amplitudes. The amplitudes of 18.61-year cycle and 4.42-year cycle show noticeable temporal and spatial variations, which can be attributed to the changes of sea levels, local topography, and the active and robust mesoscale activity in the Norwegian Sea. Moreover, the temporal and spatial variations in nodal modulation are quantitatively demonstrated at the Rorvik and Vardo stations, highlighting the importance of nodal modulation in assessing tides over interdecadal periods.
... Globally, approximately 60% of marine ecosystems are degraded or used in an unsustainable manner [1]. Mangrove forests have declined by 35% over the past 20 years, leading to a significant increase in the ecological vulnerability of coastal areas and causing huge economic losses [2][3][4]. Although mangrove ecosystems cover a much smaller area than terrestrial forests, they play a crucial role in addressing the global climate crisis, nurturing ...
Mangrove forests are significant blue carbon pools on the Earth with strong carbon sequestration capacity and play an important role in combating climate change. To improve the capacity of regional carbon sinks, China has implemented a Special Action Plan for Mangrove Protection and Restoration (2020–2025). In this context, based on the MaxEnt model, this study analyzed the important environmental factors affecting the distribution of mangrove forests, combined with the planning objectives and carbon density parameters of different regions; assessed the habitat suitability areas of China’s mangrove forests; and predicted their future carbon stock potential. The results showed the following: (1) Elevation was the most important factor affecting the overall distribution of mangrove forests in China, and the optimal elevation of mangrove distribution was 0.52 m. (2) The most suitable areas of mangrove forests in China were mainly distributed in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong, which had great potential for carbon stock. Danzhou Bay and Hongpai Harbor in Hainan, Lianzhou Bay in Guangxi, and the Huangmao Sea in Guangdong are potential areas for habitat suitability but are not yet under high levels of protection. (3) Achieving the goals of this action plan was expected to increase carbon stocks by 4.13 Tg C. Other suitable areas not included in this plan could still increase carbon stocks by 7.99 Tg C in the long term. The study could provide a scientific basis for siting mangrove restoration areas and developing efficient management policies.
... The IPCC Institute (2007) predicts that sea levels in Indonesia will rise 100 cm due to increased sea water temperature from 1.3 C to 4.6 C in 2100. This is evidenced by the increasing expansion of coastal areas inundated by tidal floods (floods) which results in the coastal environment being damaged and destroying coastal protection structures [17]. ...
Most of Indonesia's territory is geographically located in the coastal area. One of the areas located in the coastal area is the city of Meulaboh, West Aceh Regency. The coastal area of Meulaboh often experiences tidal flooding, especially the coastal area of Gampong Pasir and has a quite severe impact compared to other areas on the coast of Meulaboh. Based on this background, this study aims to identify community adaptation to the tidal flood event based on community responses in the coastal area and identify efforts to mitigate the impact of tidal floods that have been carried out by the community and the government. The analytical methods used are descriptive quantitative and qualitative analysis methods, as well as cross-tabulation analysis related to community adaptation variables, which include community characteristics, the impact of tidal floods on the residential environment, identification of tidal flood conditions and efforts to mitigate the impact of tidal floods, carried out by the community and the government. The results showed that the people of the coastal area of Meulaboh were able to make efforts to deal with tidal floods in the form of repairing road networks, residential houses, drainage channels, places of worship (mosques), village offices, and clean water and sanitation systems. The government's efforts to deal with tidal floods are carried out by making barriers to protect the coast through tetrapod. These results are important to take future action to deal with tidal floods.
... Rising sea levels and extreme events threaten indigenous groups that inhabit low-lying island nations. The results from various assessments of impacts of climate change on human population show that sea-level rise could increase flooding, particularly on the coasts of Eastern Africa (18). Also, higher temperatures and reduced snow, ice, etc, threaten the wellbeing of inhabitants of mountainous and polar areas. ...
This paper focused on the impact of climate change on human population and environmental health in Sub-Saharan Africa. Africa is among the most vulnerable continents to climate change has a result of human's explorative activities. Throughout this region there are spatial and temporal discrepancies in temperature and precipitation trends; with dread impacts on human population, its sustainability and environmental health. The effects of climate change are warming temperatures, fluctuations in precipitation, harsh weather events, rising sea levels, population migration and displacement of coastal communities. These impacts threaten human population, population distribution and settlement, health, water quality and supply, agriculture and our ecosystems. Climate change impacts our health in a number of ways by: reducing the availability of safe food and drinking water; damaging roads and bridges, disrupting access to communication, utility, and health care services; increasing emission of greenhouse gases from human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil) for energy and transportation; risk of respiratory, cardiovascular and vector borne disease; and increasing mental health problems like as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). For effective management of this risk, it requires the integration of mitigation and adaptation strategies in the management of ecosystem, agriculture and human health population in Africa.
... According to the results of the biodiversity survey of the research team in the wetland area of the Dong Rui commune, the level of species diversity here is relatively large when compared to other wetland areas in northern Vietnam, such as the Cat Ba mangrove forest, Phu Long -Gia Luan mangrove forest, and Hai Phong Province (Pham et al. 2017;Thinh et al. 2008). In Xuan Thuy National Park (Nam Dinh Province), the wetland ecosystem is considered the most diverse in northern Vietnam, and the biodiversity level of the species composition of the Dong Rui commune wetland area is equivalent to over 1500 species of organisms (Huan 2021;Nhan et al. 2015). ...
Mangroves are one of the most important types of wetlands in coastal areas and perform many different functions. Assessing the structure and function of mangroves is a premise for the management, monitoring and development of this most diverse and vulnerable ecosystem. In this study, the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) Phantom 4 Multispectral was used to analyse the structure of a mangrove forest area of approximately 50 hectares in Dong Rui commune, Tien Yen district, Quang Ninh Province – one of the most diverse wetland ecosystems in northern Vietnam. Based on the visual classification method combined with the results of field taxonomic sampling, a mangrove tree classification map was established for UAV with three species, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, Rhizophora stylosa, and Kandelia obovata, achieving an overall accuracy = 86.28%, corresponding to a Kappa coefficient =0.84. From the images obtained from the UAV, we estimated and developed maps and assessed the difference in tree height and four vegetation indices, including the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and green chlorophyll index (GCI), for three mangrove plant species in the flying area. Bruguiera gymnorrhiza and Rhizophora stylosa reach an average height of 4 to 5 m and are distributed mainly in high tide areas. Meanwhile, Kandelia obovata has a lower height (ranging from 2 to 4 m), distributed in low-tide areas, near frequent flows. This study confirms the superiority of UAV with red edge and near-infrared wave bands in classifying and studying mangrove structures in small-scale areas.
... Coastal ecosystems are highly efficient carbon sinks. Wetland vegetation sequesters carbon in living biomass and through high rates of organic and mineral carbon accretion in sediments, which persist for long periods of time (Chambers et al. 2001;Nellemann et al. 2009;McLeod et al. 2011). Further, carbon storage may serve as a proxy for other ecosystem services that are essential in sustaining wetlands against global climate change. ...
Looming above the coastal wetlands at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB), a reminder of the close proximity between these protective ecosystems and NASA’s important facilities and infrastructure.
... As mudanças climáticas podem ser uma grande ameaça às AUs (Salimi et al., 2021), e podem resultar em uma perda esperada de 20% das AUs costeiras nas décadas futuras (Nicholls, 2004;Rapinel et al., 2023). Em escala global, Ilyas et al. (2019) destacam o relacionamento entre os episódios de acoplamento de El Niño e La Niña com as variações globais de inundação, de diferentes classes de lagos globais e AUs. ...
Os pulsos de inundação são responsáveis pelos processos e conectividades ecológicos em Áreas Úmidas, e um dos principais processos hidrogeomorfológicos ocorrentes nestes ecossistemas. O Parque Nacional da Lagoa do Peixe, situado na área costeira do extremo sul do Brasil, tem banhados, lagoas e marismas característicos das Áreas Úmidas. Os pulsos de inundação são previsíveis, polimodais, dependentes do regime de precipitação e sofrem influência de eventos associados à variabilidade climática (El Niño Oscilação Sul e Modo Anular do Hemisfério Sul). O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a variação espaço-temporal dos pulsos de inundação das Áreas Úmidas do Parque Nacional da Lagoa do Peixe, a partir da variabilidade da precipitação e dados de sensoriamento remoto. Para isso estruturamos o trabalho em duas etapas: (i) escolha das imagens de satélite e identificação dos pulsos de inundação, entre 1987 e 2023, contemplando eventos de El Niño, La Niña e Neutro, e (ii) mapeamento das áreas alagadas utilizando imagens de Índice de Diferença de Água Normalizada Modificado. Os resultados mostram a influência de El Niño Oscilação Sul e Modo Anular do Hemisfério Sul nos pulsos de inundação, com maiores áreas alagadas na primavera (2013, 2015, 1998, 1987), em ano de El Niño e em ano Neutro. Em eventos de estiagem, associados a La Niña (2023), normalmente no verão, ocorre a quase total ausência de lâmina de água no sistema lagunar.
Urbanization can significantly transform land-cover patterns and modify lacustrine landscapes within urban lake watersheds over relatively short periods. These transformations are characterized by the expansion of urban areas into previously natural cover types, potentially leading to adverse outcomes such as lake shrinkage. Taking Dianchi Lake as an example, we applied the entropy method to determine the weights of 8 land-use types in a fuzzy synthetic evaluation, thereby the Comprehensive Index of City Urbanization (CICU) from 1988 to 2013. Comparing the comprehensive evaluation values with changes in the Dianchi Lake area revealed distinct correlations before and after 2000. Results indicated that moderate urban expansion in Kunming between 1988 and 2000 may have positively influenced the water levels of Dianchi Lake. Conversely, accelerated urbanization post-2000 led to substantial alterations in land-cover patterns and hydrological models, contributing to the shrinkage of Dianchi Lake. The CICU can be used for the analysis of human impacts on lake shrinkage and can thus provide a mathematical model for better understanding the water quantity balance of urban lakes.
In the past 20 years, the ecological risks arising from climate change have attracted increasing attention. Understanding its research progress and the evolution of hot topics is paramount. However, efficient, in-depth, and robust analysis of massive and complex unstructured literature is difficult. This study employs a novel approach integrating data mining, bibliometrics, and systematic review to analyze 9,122 interdisciplinary publications from 2000 to 2023. Our findings reveal a consistent annual increase in publications, with a marked acceleration post-2015. The United States and China have emerged as leading contributors to this field. Over time, the theme has traversed three pivotal hotspots and above 100 hot words. We have summarized research progress from early to late stages into nine aspects: (1) species and population responses; (2) ecosystem impacts; (3) social-ecological system risks; (4) land use/cover change interactions; (5) ecological processes; (6) ecosystem services; (7) sustainable development goals; (8) ecosystem conservation, management, and adaptation; and (9) ecological risk assessment and major models. Additionally, we summarized international policies and efforts to combat climate risks, research gaps, and potential directions for future progress: establish the unified and comparable regional risk assessment framework; strengthen research on ecological processes, multiple sources of pressure, and composite risks; enhance research on the space-time and flow of risks; establish high-precision basic datasets; and improve communication and cooperation among multiple stakeholders. This study provides a systematic and comprehensive review of climate change's ecological risks, which may inspire researchers interested in this field.
Wetland loss and degradation is a major global issue in which its detailed estimation of spatio-temporal distribution will be a key for understanding the dynamics and subsequent impact assessment studies. This study aimed to estimate the spatio-temporal distributions of wetland loss, analyze its geographical characteristics, and quantify the likelihood of loss occurrence for existing wetlands in the lower Mekong River Basin in Cambodia. Using the global surface water detection datasets, the spatiotemporal distribution of wetland loss with high resolution (30m) over the entire study area (140km×210km) during 1984–2021 was estimated. Statistically significant differences were found in the distance from urban areas and distance from river channels for the existing wetlands and lost wetlands as of 2021, in which the lost wetlands tend to locate closer to urban areas. Subsequent Land Use/Land Cover after the wetland loss was found to be mainly croplands (72.2%) in the study area. Though our estimate overall agrees with the recent global-scale estimate, our estimate resulted in notable ratio of rangelands (11.3%), which represents the unique characteristics of floodplain wetlands in the lower Mekong River Basin. The Random Forest and Light GBM algorithms-based wetland loss prediction models resulted in good statistical evaluation metrics. In both models, the distance from river channels was found to be the most important feature for classifying existing wetlands and lost wetlands. Application of the developed models successfully provided the map of likelihood of wetland loss for existing wetlands in the study area.
Risk-informed life-cycle engineering provides a viable approach for addressing the challenges posed by climate change for developing appropriate design and management criteria for structures and infrastructure systems. The basic mathematical formulations are first presented and followed by a discussion of important factors that must be considered during the life-cycle analysis of structures and infrastructure systems. The input for the time-variant reliability analysis consists of probabilistic models for climatic loads and member capacities both of which are affected by changes in weather patterns. The chapter reviews the following topics that constitute important components of climate-focused life-cycle engineering: infrastructure interdependencies and multi-hazard effects under climate change; and effective optimization techniques for life-cycle management of new and existing structures in a changing climate. It also reviews strategies for infrastructure management subject to climate change illustrated through the management of transportation systems as an example case.
Marine-terminating glaciers of Kalaallit Nunaat (Greenland) have undergone accelerated mass loss since the 1990s, with a substantial portion due to the effects of dynamic ice loss. Conventional assessments of dynamic mass loss, however, often ignore the influence of terminus advance or retreat on the timing of mass loss. Here we construct and analyze a decade (2013–2023) of monthly ice flux driven both by temporal variability in ice flow (i.e., discharge) and terminus position change collectively called terminus ablation — for 49 marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland. We calculate terminus ablation rates using open-source datasets, including terminus position, ice surface elevation, ice thickness, and glacier speed, to facilitate the continuation of the terminus ablation time series as more data become available. For the majority of glaciers, we observe coincident seasonal variations in terminus position and discharge that produce a pronounced summer peak in terminus ablation. However, for 8 glaciers we find that the terminus ablation has more erratic seasonal variability compared to discharge. At regional scales, the magnitude of seasonal oscillations in terminus ablation are much larger than discharge: for the northwest and central west sectors, where the fraction of outlet glaciers included in our estimates is greatest, the average difference between the annual maximum and minimum in terminus ablation are ∼51Gt/yr and ∼25Gt/yr, respectively, compared to only ∼5Gt/yr for discharge. While our terminus ablation time series do not include every outlet glacier, they suggest that terminus position change is the dominant contributor to Greenland glacier dynamic mass loss at seasonal time scales, in contrast with the relatively small influence of terminus change on decadal-scale mass loss. Since seasonality in mass loss can influence the fate of freshwater fluxes and can affect areas where seasonal accuracy is essential, such as downstream ecosystem, fjord productivity and ocean circulation, it is essential that future estimates of Greenland mass loss account for seasonal terminus position change.
Our earth has given many ecosystems that will heal themselves from the degradations. One of those ecosystems is the wetland, which is a precious natural sponge, naturally purifying and replenishing the water, head off from the flood, and mainly giving tremendous biodiversity to the flora and fauna. However, human activities are degrading the wetlands and polluting them indiscriminately with solid wastes and domestic and industrial wastewater discharge. With the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, nations around the world have acknowledged the critical benefits of wetland restoration and development. In this review article, we contributed to address the general wetland policies in the world, both nationally (India) and regionally (Tamil Nadu). In this paper, we will be discussing the reviews on the characteristics of wetland ecosystems, indices of biodiversity, risks to the wetland's restoration tactics, its main obstacle, and the financial advantages of wetlands. After clearly analyzing 226 previous research and review articles, a clear coherence between the explored hypothesis of wetland restoration mechanisms and the resulting economic and social benefits was arrived. Our findings indicate that effective restoration not only enhances ecosystem services but also leads to significant economic gains and improved community well-being. This alignment underscores the importance of investing in wetland restoration for sustainable development.
Wetland ecosystems in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau are pivotal for global ecology and regional sustainability. This study investigates the dynamic changes in wetland ecosystems within the Chaidamu Basin and their response to drought, aiming to foster sustainable wetland utilization in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Using Landsat TM/ETM/OLI data on the Google Earth Engine platform, we employed a random forest (RF) method for annual long-term land cover classification. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices (SPEI3, SPEI6, SPEI9, and SPEI12) on different time scales were used to assess meteorological drought conditions. We employed a Pearson correlation analysis to examine the relationship between wetland changes and various SPEI scales. The BFASAT method was used to evaluate the impact of SPEI12 trends on the wetlands, while a cross-wavelet analysis explored teleconnections between SPEI12 and atmospheric circulation factors. Our conclusion is as follows: The wetlands, including lake, glacier, and marsh wetlands, exhibited a noticeable increasing trend. Wetland expansion occurred during specific periods (1990–1997, 1998–2007, and 2008–2020), featuring extensive conversions between wetlands and other types, notably the conversion from other types to wetlands. Spatially, lake and marsh wetlands predominated in the low-latitude basin, while glacier wetlands were situated at higher altitudes. There were significant negative correlations between the SPEI at various scales and the total wetland area and types. SPEI12 displayed a decreasing trend with non-stationarity and distinct breakpoints in 1996, 2002, and 2011, indicating heightened drought severity. Atmospheric circulation indices (ENSO, NAO, PDO, AO, and WP) exhibited varying degrees of resonance with SPEI12, with NAO, PDO, AO, and WP demonstrating longer resonance times and pronounced responses. These findings underscore the significance of comprehending wetland changes and drought dynamics for effective ecological management in the Chaidamu Basin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.
The European project WASA (Waves and Storms in the North Atlantic) has been set up to verify or disprove hypotheses of a worsening storm and wave climate in the northeast Atlantic and its adjacent seas in the present century. Its main conclusion is that the storm and wave climate in most of the northeast Atlantic and in the North Sea has undergone significant variations on timescales of decades; it has indeed roughened in recent decades, but the present intensity of the storm and wave climate seems to be comparable with that at the beginning of this century. Part of this
variability is found to be related to the North Atlantic oscillation.
An analysis of a high-resolution climate change experiment, mimicking global warming due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, results in a weak increase of storm activity and (extreme) wave heights in the Bay of Biscay and in the North Sea, while storm action and waves slightly decrease along the Norwegian coast and in most of the remaining North Atlantic area. A weak increase in storm surges in the southern and eastern part of the North Sea is expected. These projected anthropogenic changes at the time of CO2 doubling fall well within the limits of variability observed in the past.
A major methodical obstacle for the assessment of changes in the intensity of storm and wave events are inhomogeneities in the observational record, both in terms of local observations and of analyzed products (such as weather maps), which usually produce an artificial increase of extreme winds. This occurs because older analyses were based on fewer observations and with more limited conceptual and numerical models of the dynamical processes than more recent analyses. Therefore the assessment of changes in storminess is based on local observations of air pressure and high-frequency variance at tide gauges. Data of this sort is available for 100 yr and sometimes more. The assessment of changes in the wave climate is achieved using a two-step procedure; first a state-of-the-art wave model is integrated with 40 yr of wind analysis; the results are assumed to be reasonably homogeneous in the area south of 70°N and east of 20°W; then a regression is built that relates monthly mean air pressure distributions to intramonthly percentiles of wave heights at selected locations with the help of the 40-yr simulated data; finally, observed monthly mean air pressure fields from the beginning of this century are fed into the regression model to derive best guesses of wave statistics throughout the century.
It has been speculated that future global warming will change the
frequency and severity of tropical and extratropical storms. The U.S.
east coast is heavily impacted by such storms, so it is important to
determine their natural temporal variability for the last century during
which global warming has been relatively small. Storm surge data
obtained from hourly tide gauge records provide a unique quantitative
measure of storm duration and intensity, unlike qualitative estimates
based on eyewitness reports or meteorological hindcasts. To demonstrate
the potential of storm surge data for climate analysis, the authors have
evaluated 10 very long records of water level anomalies. An analysis of
the hourly tide gauge records along the U.S. east coast shows a
considerable interdecadal variation but no discernible long-term trend
in the number and intensity of moderate and severe coastal storms during
this century. However, sea level rise over the last century has
exacerbated the damage to fixed structures from modern storms that would
have been relatively minor a century ago.
Recent improvements in mapping of global population distribution makes it possible to estimate the number and distribution of people near coasts with greater accuracy than previously possible, and hence consider the potential exposure of these populations to coastal hazards. In this paper, we combine the updated Gridded Population of the World (GPW2) population distribution estimate for 1990 and lighted settlement imagery with a global digital elevation model (DEM) and a high resolution vector coastline. This produces bivariate distributions of population, lighted settlements and land area as functions of elevation and coastal proximity. The near-coastal population within 100 km of a shoreline and 100 m of sea level was estimated as 1.2 × 109 people with average densities nearly 3 times higher than the global average density. Within the near coastal-zone, the average population density diminishes more rapidly with elevation than with distance, while the opposite is true of lighted settlements. Lighted settlements are concentrated within 5 km of coastlines worldwide, whereas average population densities are higher at elevations below 20 m throughout the 100 km width of the near-coastal zone. Presently most of the near-coastal population live in relatively densely-populated rural areas and small to medium cities, rather than in large cities. A range of improvements are required to define a better baseline and scenarios for policy analysis. Improving the resolution of the underlying population data is a priority.
Future global and regional sea-level changes have been calculated using two versions (HadCM2 and HadCM3) of the Hadley Center coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model forced by the IS92a scenario for emissions of greenhouse gases. HadCM3 is a newly developed model which does not require flux adjustment to maintain a stable climatology. Global-average sea-level rise from 1990 to 2100 is predicted to be 0.48 m in HadCM2 and 0.44 m in HadCM3, 60% resulting from thermal expansion of sea-water and the rest from loss of mass of glaciers and small ice-caps. Sea-level rise is smaller in HadCM3 principally because the radiative forcing is slightly less, giving reduced ocean heat uptake and thermal expansion. However, the heat penetrates less deeply in HadCM3; consequently the surface warming is nearly the same. There is marked geographical variation of sea-level change, which is generally similar in the two models; local values range between zero and twice the global average.
Understanding the broad-scale ramifications of accelerated sea level rise requires maps of the land that could be inundated or eroded. Producing such maps requires a combination of elevation information and models of shoreline erosion, wetland accretion, and other coastal processes. Assessments of coastal areas in the United States that combine all of these factors have focused on relatively small areas, usually 25 to 30 kilometers wide. In many cases, the results are as sensitive to uncertainty regarding geological processes as to the rate of sea level rise. This paper presents maps illustrating the elevations of lands close to sea level. Although elevation contours do not necessarily coincide with future shorelines, the former is more transparent and less dependent on subjective modeling. Several methods are available for inferring elevations given limited data. This paper uses the USGS 1-degree digital elevation series and NOAA shoreline data to illustrate the land below the 1.5- and 3.5-meter contours for areas the size of entire U.S. states or larger. The maps imply that approximately 58,000 square kilometers of land along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts lie below the 1.5-meter contour. Louisiana, Florida, Texas, and North Carolina account for more than 80 percent of the low land. Outside of those four states, the largest vulnerable populated region is the land along the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay stretching from Dorchester County, Maryland to Accomac County, Virginia.
In this study we examine the anthropogenically forced climate response over the historical period, 1860 to present, and projected response to 2100, using updated emissions scenarios and an improved coupled model (HadCM3) that does not use flux adjustments. We concentrate on four new Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) namely (A1FI, A2, B2, B1) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report, considered more self-consistent in their socio-economic and emissions structure, and therefore more policy relevant, than older scenarios like IS92a. We include an interactive model representation of the anthropogenic sulfur cycle and both direct and indirect forcings from sulfate aerosols, but omit the second indirect forcing effect through cloud lifetimes. The modelled first indirect forcing effect through cloud droplet size is near the centre of the IPCC uncertainty range. We also model variations in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone. Greenhouse gas-forced climate change response in B2 resembles patterns in IS92a but is smaller. Sulfate aerosol and ozone forcing substantially modulates the response, cooling the land, particularly northern mid-latitudes, and altering the monsoon structure. By 2100, global mean warming in SRES scenarios ranges from 2.6 to 5.3 K above 1900 and precipitation rises by 1%/K through the twenty first century (1.4%/K omitting aerosol changes). Large-scale patterns of response broadly resemble those in an earlier model (HadCM2), but with important regional differences, particularly in the tropics. Some divergence in future response occurs across scenarios for the regions considered, but marked drying in the mid-USA and southern Europe and significantly wetter conditions for South Asia, in June-July-August, are robust and significant.
Adaptation is defined as the planned or unplanned, reactive or anticipatory, successful or unsuccessful response of a system to a change in its environment. This paper examines the current status of adaptation to sea-level rise and climate change in the context of European coasts. Adaptation can greatly reduce the impact of sea-level rise (and other coastal changes), although it requires adjustment of coastal management policies to changing circumstances. Consequently, adaptation is a social, political, and economic process, rather than just a technical exercise, as it is often conceived. The Synthesis and Upscaling of sea-level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Studies project has shown that adaptation to sea-level rise is widely divergent among European countries. Crudely, four groups of countries were identified:
1. Those that do not worry about accelerated sea-level rise and should not as their coasts are not susceptible
2. Those that do not worry as they have more urgent problems
3. Those that do not worry but probably should
4. Those that do worry and have started to adapt
At the European Union level, while coastal management is a focus, this effort is mainly targeted at today’s problems. Hence, this paper suggests the need for a concerted effort to address adaptation in coastal zones across Europe. Sharing of experience among countries would facilitate this process.
The European project WASA (Waves and Storms in the North Atlantic) has been set up to verify or disprove hypotheses of a worsening storm and wave climate in the northeast Atlantic and its adjacent seas in the present century. Its main conclusion is that the storm and wave climate in most of the northeast Atlantic and in the North Sea has undergone significant variations on timescales of decades; it has indeed roughened in recent decades, but the present intensity of the storm and wave climate seems to be comparable with that at the beginning of this century. Part of this variability is found to be related to the North Atlantic oscillation.
An analysis of a high-resolution climate change experiment, mimicking global warming due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, results in a weak increase of storm activity and (extreme) wave heights in the Bay of Biscay and in the North Sea, while storm action and waves slightly decrease along the Norwegian coast and in most of the remaining North Atlantic area. A weak increase in storm surges in the southern and eastern part of the North Sea is expected. These projected anthropogenic changes at the time of CO2 doubling fall well within the limits of variability observed in the past.
A major methodical obstacle for the assessment of changes in the intensity of storm and wave events are inhomogeneities in the observational record, both in terms of local observations and of analyzed products (such as weather maps), which usually produce an artificial increase of extreme winds. This occurs because older analyses were based on fewer observations and with more limited conceptual and numerical models of the dynamical processes than more recent analyses. Therefore the assessment of changes in storminess is based on local observations of air pressure and high-frequency variance at tide gauges. Data of this sort is available for 100 yr and sometimes more. The assessment of changes in the wave climate is achieved using a two-step procedure; first a state-of-the-art wave model is integrated with 40 yr of wind analysis; the results are assumed to be reasonably homogeneous in the area south of 70°N and east of 20°W; then a regression is built that relates monthly mean air pressure distributions to intramonthly percentiles of wave heights at selected locations with the help of the 40-yr simulated data; finally, observed monthly mean air pressure fields from the beginning of this century are fed into the regression model to derive best guesses of wave statistics throughout the century.
The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:
ID - 18
This paper reports the main results of an assessment of the global-scale implications of the stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 750 ppm (by 2250) and 550 ppm (by 2150), in relationto a scenario of unmitigated emissions. The climate change scenarios were derived from simulation experiments conducted with the HadCM2 global climate model and forced with the IPCC IS92a, S750 and S550 emissions scenarios. The simulated changes in climate were applied to an observed global baseline climatology, and applied with impacts models to estimate impacts on natural vegetation, water resources, coastal flood risk and wetland loss, crop yield and food security, and malaria. The studies used a single set of population and socio-economic scenarios about the future that are similar to those adopted in the IS92a emissions scenario.An emissions pathway which stabilises CO2 concentrations at 750 ppmby the 2230s delays the 2050 temperature increase under unmitigated emissions by around 50 years. The loss of tropical forest and grassland which occurs by the 2050s under unmitigated emissions is delayed to the 22nd century, and the switch from carbon sink to carbon source is delayed from the 2050s to the 2170s. Coastal wetland loss is slowed. Stabilisation at 750 ppm generally has relatively little effect on the impacts of climate change on water resource stress, and populations at risk of hunger or falciparum malaria until the 2080s.A pathway which stabilises CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm by the 2170s delays the 2050 temperature increase under unmitigated emissions by around 100 years. There is no substantial loss of tropical forest or grassland, even by the 2230s, although the terrestrial carbon store ceases to act as a net carbon sink by around 2170 (this time because the vegetation has reached a new equilibrium with the atmosphere). Coastal wetland loss is slowed considerably, and the increase in coastal flood risk is considerably lower than under unmitigated emissions. CO2 stabilisation at 550 ppm reduces substantially water resource stress, relative to unmitigated emissions, but has relatively little impact on populations at risk of falciparum malaria, and may even cause more people to be at risk of hunger. While this study shows that mitigation avoids many impacts, particularly in the longer-term (beyond the 2080s), stabilisation at 550 ppm appears to be necessary to avoid or significantly reduce most of the projected impacts in the unmitigated case.
A frequently predicted consequence of global climate change is an increased effect of coastal hazards on the world's human population. The impact of coastal hazards depends on the proximity of human population to the coastal zone. Recently compiled population estimates are combined with a new continental digital elevation model in an attempt to quantify the global distribution of human population and occupied land area with respect to elevation and coastal proximity. The limited spatial resolution of the census data allows one to quantify some of the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of population. This provides a lower bound on the uncertainty in the resulting distributions but does not account for uncertainty in the census data or elevation data. Long-term records of relative sea level rise, tidal heights, and storm surge heights can be combined with global sea level rise estimates for a variety of climate change scenarios to estimate the approximate magnitude of vertical changes in local sea level. It is verified that large numbers of people live at low elevations near coasts but the uncertainties are too large to provide meaningful estimates of the number of people who reside in so-called “coastal zones” worldwide. The principal conclusion is that both the spatial distribution and the resolution of global data must be significantly improved before realistic quantitative assessments of the global impact of coastal hazards can be made.
Time-dependent global mean temperautre changes in response to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are estimated, along with past and future contributions to mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of land-based ice. Possible modelling strategies are reviewed first. The overall range of projected temperature change over 1990-2100 is 1-7°C. For sea level, the 1990-2100 changes lie in the range 3-124cm. Mid-value estimates based on IPCC forcing scenario B are 2.5°C and 46cm. -from Authors
Rapid urbanization is projected to produce 20 coastal megacities (population exceeding 8 million) by 2010. This is mainly a developing world phenomenon: in 1990, there were seven coastal megacities in Asia (excluding those in Japan) and two in South America, rising by 2010 to 12 in Asia (including Istanbul), three in South America and one in Africa.All coastal locations, including megacities, are at risk to the impacts of accelerated global sea-level rise and other coastal implications of climate change, such as changing storm frequency. Further, many of the coastal megacities are built on geologically young sedimentary strata that are prone to subsidence given excessive groundwater withdrawal. At least eight of the projected 20 coastal megacities have experienced a local orrelative rise in sea level which often greatly exceeds any likely global sea-level rise scenario for the next century.The implications of climate change for each coastal megacity vary significantly, so each city requires independent assessment. In contrast to historical precedent, a proactive perspective towards coastal hazards and changing levels of risk with time is recommended. Low-cost measures to maintain or increase future flexibility of response to climate change need to be identified and implemented as part of an integrated approach to coastal management.
A potential consequence of climate change is an alteration of the frequency of extreme coastal storm surge events. It is
these extreme events which, from an impacts point of view, will be of more concern than the slow inundation of coastal areas
by century scale changes in mean sea level. In this study, a 35 km resolution storm surge model of the North west European
continental shelf region has been driven by winds and pressures from the Hadley Centre nested regional climate model. Simulations
of both present day and future climate (the end of the twentyfirst century) have been performed. The results suggest that,
in addition to the effect of rising mean sea level, at many locations around the United Kingdom coastline future changes in
local meteorology will lead to further significant changes in the return periods of extreme storm surge events. At most sites,
this meteorologically forced change represents a reduction in return period.
Simultaneous measurements of vertical accretion and change in surface elevation relative to a shallow (3–5 m) subsurface datum were made in selected coastal salt marshes of Louisiana, Florida, and North Carolina to quantitatively test Kaye and Barghoorn's contention that vertical accretion is not a good surrogate for surface elevation change because of autocompaction of the substrate. Rates of subsidence of the upper 3–5 m of marsh substrate were calculated for each marsh as the difference between vertical accretion and elevation change measured with feldspar marker horizons and a sedimentation-erosion table. Surface elevation change was significantly lower than vertical accretion at each site after 2 years, indicating a significant amount of shallow subsidence had occurred, ranging from 0.45 to 4.90 cm. The highest rate of shallow subsidence occurred in the Mississippi delta. Results confirm Kaye and Barghoorn's contention that vertical accretion is not generally a good surrogate for elevation change because of processes occurring in the upper few meters of the substrate, including not only compaction but also apparently shrink-swell from water storage and/or plant production-decomposition at some sites. Indeed, surface elevation change was completely decoupled from vertical accretion at the Florida site. The assumption of a 1:1 relationship between vertical accretion and surface elevation change is too simplistic a generalization of the complex interactions between accretionary and substrate processes. Consequently, the potential for coastal marsh submergence should be expressed as an elevation deficit based on direct measures of surface elevation change rather than accretion deficits. These findings also indicate the need for greater understanding of the influence of subsurface and small-scale hydrologic processes on marsh surface elevation.
We describe a set of global climate change scenarios that have been used in a series of studies investigating the global impacts of climate change on several environmental systems and resources — ecosystems, food security, water resources, malaria and coastal flooding. These scenarios derive from modelling experiments completed by the Hadley Centre over the last four years using successive versions of their coupled ocean–atmosphere global climate model. The scenarios benefit from ensemble simulations (made using HadCM2) and from an un-flux-corrected experiment (made using HadCM3), but consider only the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The effects of associated changes in sulphate aerosol concentrations are not considered. The scenarios are presented for three future time periods — 30-year means centred on the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080s — and are expressed with respect to the mean 1961–1990 climate. A global land observed climatology at 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution is used to describe current climate. Other scenario variables — atmospheric CO2 concentrations, global-mean sea-level rise and non-climatic assumptions relating to population and economy — are also provided. We discuss the limitations of the created scenarios and in particular draw attention to sources of uncertainty that we have not fully sampled.
Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question “how much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?” This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising.
This paper describes the way in which the socio-economic projections in the SRES scenarios were applied in a global-scale assessment of the impacts of climate change on food security, water stresses, coastal flood risk and wetland loss, exposure to malaria risk and terrestrial ecosystems. There are two key issues: (i) downscaling from the world-region level of the original scenarios to the scale of analysis (0.5°×0.5°), and (ii) elaborating the SRES narrative storylines to quantify other indicators affecting the impact of climate change. National estimates of population and GDP were derived by assuming that each country changed at the regional rate, and population was downscaled to the 0.5°×0.5° scale assuming that everywhere in a country changed at the same rate. SRES scenarios for future cropland extent were applied to current baseline data, assuming everywhere within a region changed at the same rate. The narrative storylines were used to construct scenarios of future adaptation to the coastal flood risk and malaria risk. The paper compares the SRES scenarios with other global-scale scenarios, and identifies sources of uncertainty. It concludes by recommending three refinements to the use of the SRES scenarios in global and regional-scale impact assessment: (i) improved disaggregation to finer spatial resolutions, using both “downscaled narrative storylines” and new technical procedures, (ii) explicit consideration of uncertainty in the population, GDP and land cover characterisations of each storyline, and (iii) use of a wider range of future socio-economic scenarios than provided by SRES if the aim of an impact assessment is to estimate the range of possible future impacts.
To develop improved estimates of (1) flooding due to storm surges, and (2) wetland losses due to accelerated sea-level rise, the work of Hoozemans et al. (1993) is extended to a dynamic analysis. It considers the effects of several simultaneously changing factors, including: (1) global sea-level rise and subsidence; (2) increasing coastal population; and (3) improving standards of flood defence (using GNP/capita as an “ability-to-pay” parameter). The global sea-level rise scenarios are derived from two General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments of the Hadley Centre: (1) the HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and (2) the more recent HadCM3 greenhouse gas only experiment. In all cases there is a global rise in sea level of about 38 cm from 1990 to the 2080s. No other climate change is considered. Relative to an evolving reference scenario without sea-level rise, this analysis suggests that the number of people flooded by storm surge in a typical year will be more than five times higher due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Many of these people will experience annual or more frequent flooding, suggesting that the increase in flood frequency will be more than nuisance level and some response (increased protection, migration, etc.) will be required. In absolute terms, the areas most vulnerable to flooding are the southern Mediterranean, Africa, and most particularly, South and South-east Asia where there is a concentration of low-lying populated deltas. However, the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean islands and the Pacific Ocean small islands may experience the largest relative increase in flood risk. By the 2080s, sea-level rise could cause the loss of up to 22% of the world's coastal wetlands. When combined with other losses due to direct human action, up to 70% of the world's coastal wetlands could be lost by the 2080s, although there is considerable uncertainty. Therefore, sea-level rise would reinforce other adverse trends of wetland loss. The largest losses due to sea-level rise will be around the Mediterranean and Baltic and to a lesser extent on the Atlantic coast of Central and North America and the smaller islands of the Caribbean. Collectively, these results show that a relatively small global rise in sea level could have significant adverse impacts if there is no adaptive response. Given the “commitment to sea-level rise” irrespective of any realistic future emissions policy, there is a need to start strategic planning of appropriate responses now. Given that coastal flooding and wetland loss are already important problems, such planning could have immediate benefits.
This paper offers a practically motivated method for evaluating systems’ abilities to handle external stress. The method is designed to assess the potential contributions of various adaptation options to improving systems’ coping capacities by focusing attention directly on the underlying determinants of adaptive capacity. The method should be sufficiently flexible to accommodate diverse applications whose contexts are location specific and path dependent without imposing the straightjacket constraints of a “one size fits all” cookbook approach. Nonetheless, the method should produce unitless indicators that can be employed to judge the relative vulnerabilities of diverse systems to multiple stresses and to their potential interactions. An artificial application is employed to describe the development of the method and to illustrate how it might be applied. Some empirical evidence is offered to underscore the significance of the determinants of adaptive capacity in determining vulnerability; these are the determinants upon which the method is constructed. The method is, finally, applied directly to expert judgments of six different adaptations that could reduce vulnerability in the Netherlands to increased flooding along the Rhine River.
An analysis of the flood implications of the IPCC Second Assessment global sea-level rise scenarios
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Strategies for adaption to sea level rise
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IPCC CZMS, 1990. Strategies for adaption to sea level rise. Report of the Coastal Zone Management Subgroup. IPCC Working Group III, Rijkswaterstaat, The Netherlands.
Land–ocean interactions in the coastal zone: Science Plan. IGBP Report No. 25. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme A Global Vulnerability Analysis: Vulnerability Assessment for Population
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Adger, N., Kelly, P.M., Ninh, N.H. (Eds.), 2001. Living with Environmental Change. Routledge, London, 366pp.
Small Island States Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
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Nurse, L., Sem, G., Hay, J.E., Suarez, A.G., Wong, P.P., Briguglio, L., Ragoonaden, S., 2001. Small Island States. In: McCarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J., White, K.S. (Eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 843–875.
Coastal zone and marine ecosystems Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
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McLean, R., Tsyban, A., Burkett, V., Codignotto, J.O., Forbes, D.L., Mimura, N., Beamish, R.J., Ittekkot, V., 2001. Coastal zone and marine ecosystems. In: McCarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J., White, K.S. (Eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 343–380.
Floods: Physical Processes and Human Impacts Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
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Global warming: implications for the Thames Barrier and Associated Defenses
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Dixon, M.J., Tawn, J.A., 1997. Spatial Analyses for the UK Coast. Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Internal Document No. 112., Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Birkenhead, Merseyside, UK.
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Nicholls, R.J., Wilson, T., 2001. Chapter five. Integrated impacts on coastal areas and river flooding. In: Holman I.P., Loveland P.J. (Eds.), Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England (RegIS). Final Report of MAFF project no. CC0337. (downloadable at www.ukcip.org.uk).
Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
- B Smit
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Smit, B., Pilifosova, O., Burton, I., Challenger, B., Huq, S., Klein,
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context of sustainable development and equity. In: McCarthy, J.J.,
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Living with Environmental Change
- N Adger
- P M Kelly