ArticlePDF Available

The changing structure of the world rice market, 1950-2000

Authors:

Abstract and Figures

The world rice market has been unstable for much of its post-world war II history, with prices volatile and the availability of supplies uncertain. These characteristics, exemplified by the world food crisis of the mid-1970s, influenced domestic price and production policies in a number of Asian countries. However, the structure of the world rice market has evolved and changed during the past 50 years. This paper identifies three distinct phases in the history of the market based on trends in the level and stability of production and the trade orientation of major exporters. The level and stability of production increased steadily over the entire period. Exporters have generally been active in the world market, with the period 1965–1981 being an important exception. Since the mid-1980s, prices have been low and quite stable, and the patterns identified in the paper suggest that prices will remain so in the future. The policy implication is that Asian rice importers can afford to rely more on the world market than was warranted in the past.
Content may be subject to copyright.
Food Policy 27 (2002) 355–370 www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol
The changing structure of the world rice
market, 1950–2000
D. Dawe
International Rice Research Institute, Los Ban
˜os, Laguna, Philippines
Received 1 August 2001; received in revised form 1 June 2002; accepted 28 July 2002
Abstract
The world rice market has been unstable for much of its post-world war II history, with
prices volatile and the availability of supplies uncertain. These characteristics, exemplified by
the world food crisis of the mid-1970s, influenced domestic price and production policies in
a number of Asian countries. However, the structure of the world rice market has evolved
and changed during the past 50 years. This paper identifies three distinct phases in the history
of the market based on trends in the level and stability of production and the trade orientation
of major exporters. The level and stability of production increased steadily over the entire
period. Exporters have generally been active in the world market, with the period 1965–1981
being an important exception. Since the mid-1980s, prices have been low and quite stable,
and the patterns identified in the paper suggest that prices will remain so in the future. The
policy implication is that Asian rice importers can afford to rely more on the world market
than was warranted in the past.
2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Introduction
Nearly 70% of the world’s poor live in Asia (UNDP, 1997), a continent where
rice is by far the dominant staple food. The world rice market has traditionally been
a particularly unstable commodity market (Falcon and Monke, 1979–1980; Monke
and Pearson, 1991; Siamwalla and Haykin, 1983), where the availability of supplies
is uncertain and prices are highly variable. There are several characteristics that made
Present address: DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines. Tel.: +632-845-0563; fax: +632-
891-1292.
E-mail address: d.dawe@cgiar.org (D. Dawe).
0306-9192/02/$ - see front matter 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S0306 -9192(02)00038-6
356 D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
the world rice market more unstable than world markets for other grains such as
wheat and maize: the geographic concentration of rice production, a thin and frag-
mented world market with high transaction costs in trading, low domestic price elas-
ticities of demand, and relatively low world stockholdings (Jayne, 1993).
Price variability on the world rice market has profoundly affected rice policies
throughout Asia via at least two main channels. First, governments pursued policies
such as expansion of irrigation and implementation of fertilizer and credit subsidies
in order to increase domestic rice production and approach or attain self-sufciency,
thus reducing reliance on the world market. Secondly, most rice producing countries
have pursued price stabilization policies in order to mitigate the impact of changing
world prices on domestic prices when some exposure to the world market was too
costly to avoid (Dawe, 2001). However, the world rice market has undergone contin-
ual evolution and change during the past half-century, and it is not the same world
market today that it was in the past. These changes have affected both the level and
the variability of world rice prices.
One notable feature of its evolution has been the low level of world rice prices
from the mid-1980s to the present. The transition to this new period of lower prices
was not gradual, but was instead concentrated within a period of 4 years, 1982
1985. From 1950 to 1981, world rice prices averaged about US$934/ton (constant
year 2001 prices), with no distinct trend over time (Fig. 1). Then, from 1981 to
1985, world prices plunged precipitously, falling by 62% in just 4 years. From 1985
to 1998, prices averaged about US$355/ton, without any distinct time trend during
this latter period. Most recently, prices have plunged once more, falling 48% between
1998 and 2001 to a new low of US$173/ton.
Just as the level of prices has changed considerably during the past 50 years, so
has the variability of prices. Three distinct phases can be identied. From 1950 to
1964, prices were relatively stable, as measured by either the root mean square error
Fig. 1. Ination-adjusted world market rice prices, 19502001, 100Bs, FOB Bangkok. Dashed lines
indicate time trends for 19501981 and 19851998.
357D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
(RMSE) from a regression of real price versus a time trend, or the average absolute
value of the percentage price change from year to year (Table 1). From 1965 to
1981, prices were substantially more variable. This period includes the world food
crisis of 19731975, an event that was important in shaping the attitude of Asian
policymakers toward instability. Finally, from 1985 to 1998, world prices were rela-
tively stable once again. (Price stability in a very short time span is not easy to
measure in a meaningful manner, so the transition period from 1982 to 1984 is
ignored in terms of measuring price variability, as is the recent decline from 1999
to 2001.) The conclusion that rice prices have been more stable during the past 20
years (albeit punctuated with two sharp, and apparently permanent, declines) is con-
sistent with the conclusion in Sarris (2000).
Thus, to summarize, the pre-Green Revolution period from 1950 to 1964 was
characterized by high and stable prices. The Green Revolution period from 1965 to
1981, when modern fertilizer-responsive varieties were adopted in many countries,
was a period of high and unstable prices (19651981).
1
The years 19821984 marked
a short transition to a post-Green Revolution regime of low and stable prices from
1985 to 1998 (see Table 2 for a summary of the characteristics of each period). Most
recently, from 1999 to 2001, prices have plunged once again.
The main objective of this paper is to explain these shifts in the behavior of prices
in terms of technological changes and political disturbances that have affected rice
production and trade. For example, why were prices relatively unstable in the middle
of the past half-century, yet relatively stable at other times? Perhaps more important,
can these factors provide insights into the future of the world rice market in terms
of the level and stability of prices?
Table 1
Stability of world market rice prices
Period Average absolute value of annual RMSE (from regression of real price
price changes (%) vs. time trend) normalized by average
price
19501964 7 0.078
19651981 24 0.341
19851998 11 0.111
Source of raw data: IMF (2002).
1
When the words unstableand instabilityare used in this paper, the meaning is synonymous with
a high level of variability from trend. Similarly, the words stableand stabilityare synonymous with
a low amount of variability from trend.
358 D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
Table 2
Characteristics of the world rice economy, selected periods
Period 19501964 19651981 19851998
Pre-green revolution Green revolution Post-green revolution
Production structure
Level (per capita) Low Medium High
Variability High Medium Low
Trade structure
Number of commercially oriented Many Few Many
exporters
Prices
Level High High Low
Variability Low High Low
Average yield, world (ton ha
1
)1.88 2.42 3.54
Modern variety adoption as percentage of planted area, end of period
Bangladesh 0 22 61
India 0 48 74
Indonesia 0 61 81
Myanmar 0 53 61
Philippines 0 79 89
Thailand 0 13 16
Vietnam 0 17 89
Irrigated area as percentage of planted area, end of period
Bangladesh 5 13 32
India 37 42 50
Myanmar 14 18 30
Philippines 30 48 65
Thailand 26 23 20
Vietnam 41 52
Sources of information or data: production structure, trade structure; prices: discussion in text; yield:
FAOStat on-line electronic database (2002); modern variety adoption, irrigated area: IRRI World Rice
Statistics electronic database (2001); a dash () indicates data not available.
Trends in the level and stability of Asian rice production
Trends in the level of per capita production
Trends in the level and stability of Asian rice production go a long way toward
explaining the trends in world rice prices noted above. The most striking example
is that the plunge in world prices from 1982 to 1984 coincided with a sharp increase
in per capita rice production in Asia (Fig. 2). During those 3 years, per capita pro-
duction reached a new level of roughly 160 kg paddy (104 kg milled rice) per capita,
and this level has been approximately maintained ever since. The proximate cause
of the price decline was the achievement of rice self-sufciency by Indonesia in
1984, which in the decade prior to that was by far the worlds largest rice importer.
From 1981 to 1984, rice production in Indonesia increased 16% in a span of just 3
359D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
Fig. 2. Per capita Asian rice production, 19512000. Note: Asia includes the following 17 countries:
Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea (North), Korea (South), Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam.
years, and Indonesias abrupt exit from the world rice market undoubtedly had both
real and psychological effects on world prices. But, rice production surged in many
other countries at this same time, and it was the combined growth in many countries
that allowed world prices to stay at this new low level for the next 15 years, even
when Indonesia returned to the world market in the 1990s. For example, production
in China increased rapidly during this period due to the economic reforms begun in
1978 (Huang and Rozelle, 1996; Zhang and Carter, 1997). India and Vietnam also
saw rapid surges in production during this time. These four countries are some of
the worlds leading rice producers, so the impact on Asian production was substantial
(Table 3). At the same time that Asian rice production surged, the Thai baht was
also devalued by nearly 25% during this time, from about 20.70 at the beginning of
1981 to about 27.10 by the end of 1984. The lower value of the baht raised the
protability of rice production in Thailand and exports surged from an average of
2.4 million ton during 19781980 to 4.4 million ton during 19841986.
Although the magnitude of the surge in per capita production from 1982 to 1984
was unprecedented, per capita production had been increasing steadily during the
previous three decades. Why did these increases not have a similar depressing effect
on world prices? The most likely reason is that Asian countries were much poorer
in this earlier period, which meant that the income elasticity of demand for rice was
still positive (Timmer et al., 1983). Thus, growth in rice production had to keep pace
not only with population growth, but also with income growth. In other words,
increased per capita production was necessary to keep world prices constant in real
terms. As per capita incomes in Asia reached higher levels, however, the income
elasticity of demand for rice declined to zero in many countries, and even became
negative for some. This is reected in declining trends in per capita rice consumption
for Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. In China, Indonesia, and the Philip-
360 D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
Table 3
Leading rice producing countries, selected periods, with average level of production during each period
(in millions of tons of paddy)
Country 19501964 19651981 19851998
China 73.5 120.4 184.8
India 44.8 64.7 111.1
Indonesia 11.3 21.3 45.5
Bangladesh 12.6 17.6 26.1
Vietnam 7.6 10.3 21.3
Thailand 9.3 14.3 20.5
Myanmar 6.4 9.2 15.4
Japan 14.2 16.0 12.9
Brazil 4.2 7.5 9.7
Philippines 3.4 5.8 9.7
Korea 4.0 6.2 7.4
World 215.0 331.0 521.6
As percent of world total (%):
Top 5 73 73 75
Top 10 87 87 88
Sources of raw data: Palacpac (1977) for 19501960, FAOStat on-line electronic database (2002) for
19611998.
pines, per capita consumption has been approximately constant for at least the past
decade. Thus, constant levels of per capita rice production are now sufcient to keep
prices constant in real terms. This is consistent with the IMPACT model of the
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), which projects that world rice
prices will remain constant provided production growth roughly equals population
growth between now and 2020 (Rosegrant et al., 1995).
While trends in per capita rice production explain to some extent the sharp drop
in prices from the early to mid-1980s, this is probably not the whole story. World
market prices for wheat and maize also declined sharply in the 1980s, as did many
other commodity prices. In the case of maize, prices declined substantially even
though world production growth slowed substantially in the 1980s. Pindyck and
Rotemberg (1990) found evidence for excess co-movement of several commodity
prices, even after accounting for the effects of macroeconomic variables, and a simi-
lar phenomenon may occur for rice, wheat, and maize. Yet rice prices declined more
than wheat and maize prices during this period. Comparing the periods 19571981
and 19822000, the average ratio of rice to maize prices was 18% lower in the latter
period, while the ratio of rice to wheat prices declined by 25%. These declines in
the ratios of rice prices to prices for other grains suggest an important role for the
surge in per capita rice production.
Trends in the stability of per capita production
At the same time that the level of per capita production has increased during the
past half-century, it has also become more stable. The magnitude of year to year
361D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
uctuations in per capita production has been markedly lower in the past 15 years
than it was previously (Table 4). Prior to 1985, uctuations in per capita production
of ±3% were relatively common, occurring 22 times in the 29 years from 1952
to 1980. Since then, uctuations of this magnitude have occurred just four times in
20 years. The average absolute value of annual changes in per capita production was
4.4% from 1952 to 1964, 3.7% from 1965 to 1981, and just 1.6% from 1985 to
1998. Other measures show a similar pattern.
This improvement in the stability of per capita production is most likely due to
two major technological inuences, irrigation and pest control. In the initial phases
of the Green Revolution, irrigated area expanded rapidly due to large government
investments (Barker et al., 1985). This growth slowed substantially in the 1980s as
world rice prices declined (Hayami and Kikuchi, 1978). Furthermore, at the same
time that lower rice prices reduced the benets of constructing new irrigation sys-
tems, the cost of irrigation projects began to rise as the easiest areas to irrigate had
already been exploited (Rosegrant and Svendsen, 1993). Despite these factors, how-
ever, the proportion of rice grown under irrigated conditions was higher in the mid-
1990s than in the early 1980s (Huke and Huke, 1997). Part of this increase in the
share of irrigated area in total area was due to the absolute decline in rice area
planted in marginal ecosystems such as deepwater and upland. The area planted to
deepwater and upland rice declined by more than 4 million ha between the early
1980s and mid-1990s, a fall of 25%. Reliable supplies of water have substantially
reduced production uctuations relative to a situation where production relies solely
on the vagaries of rainfall.
Production stability has been further enhanced by the development of modern rice
varieties that have become progressively more resistant to pests and diseases. The
rst modern high yielding semi-dwarf variety, IR8, suffered frequent attacks by dis-
eases and insect pests. IR36 was released in 1976, and this new variety incorporated
resistance to multiple pests and diseases. It was so successful that it is still grown
in many areas today. Other derivative varieties (such as IR64) also incorporated
much of this resistance, and this has proved to be a successful approach for stabiliz-
ing yields (Khush, 1995). Pesticide use has also increased over time, although it is not
clear that use of these chemicals has always been successful in reducing crop losses.
Table 4
Stability of Asian per capita rice production
Period Average absolute value of RMSE (from regression of per capita
annual changes (%) production vs. time trend)
normalized by average per capita
production
19511964 4.4 0.047
19651981 3.7 0.025
19851998 1.6 0.020
Sources of raw data: FAO (2002) for 19611998, Palacpac (1977) for 19511960. Time periods do not
correspond exactly to those in Table 1 because of incomplete data on production for 1950.
362 D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
To summarize, both the level and the stability of per capita rice production in
Asia have increased substantially over time, and these developments would appear
to explain why world prices have been so low and stable for the past 15 years. Yet,
this cannot be the whole story. Why were world rice prices relatively stable from
1950 to 1964 in spite of very unstable production?
The fall and rise of commercially oriented rice exporters
An active world market: 19501964
For most of the 20th century, the major rice exporters in the world market have
been the nations of mainland Southeast Asia: Thailand, Burma, Cambodia, and South
(or southern) Vietnam. During the 1950s, Burma and Thailand dominated world rice
exports, with Cambodia also being an important player (Table 5). More important,
exports were a large share of domestic production for all of these countries (Fig. 3).
From 1950 to 1963, the average share of exports in domestic production was 40%
in Burma, 32% in Cambodia, and 24% in Thailand. South Vietnam was also a net
exporter in the 1950s, but its total exports were roughly only one-third of Cambod-
ias, and its share of exports in domestic production was also quite low.
During this period, agriculture dominated the economy of these poor countries,
and rice dominated the agricultural sector. Furthermore, because a large share of
production was exported to world markets, these countries needed to be commer-
cially oriented and participate actively in the world rice market as reliable suppliers.
2
Not only was rice an important share of the economy, but it was also a key source
of foreign exchange earnings and government revenue. For example, in Thailand
taxes on rice exports consistently accounted for more than 10% of all government
revenue in the years 19501965, and the share occasionally reached more than 25%
(Siamwalla, 1975). Thus, whenever there was a shortfall in Asian rice production,
one or more of these countries would typically step in to ll the breach and prevent
world prices from spiraling out of control. For example, there were large declines
in per capita production in 1954 and 1957 (due to a major La Nin
˜a event in
1954/1955 and a major El Nin
˜o event in 1957/1958; NOAA, 2000). To meet the
shortfall in 1954, Burma stepped into the market and exported a then record of 1.7
million tons, followed by another record of 2.0 million tons in 1955. In these 2
years, its share of exports in domestic production surged to 49%, relative to an
average of just 33% in the preceding 3 years.
In 1957, Asian per capita production fell by 4%. Aggravating matters, production
dropped sharply in the two major exporters, by 15% in Burma and 33% in Thailand.
Nevertheless, these two countries responded. Exports from Burma fell compared to
2
The phrase commercial orientationmay have different meanings and may be difcult to measure.
For the purposes of this paper, a commercially oriented rice exporter is dened as an exporter with a
relatively high ratio of exports to domestic production, as this indicates that a relatively high level of
attention must be given to marketing supplies to international customers.
363D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
Table 5
Leading rice exporting and importing countries, selected periods, with average annual level of
exports/imports during each period (in millions of tons of milled rice)
Country 19501964 Country 19651981 Country 19851998
Exports
Myanmar 1.52 USA 2.03 Thailand 5.12
Thailand 1.38 Thailand 1.75 USA 2.55
USA 0.80 China 1.62 Vietnam 1.60
China 0.69 Myanmar 0.59 India 1.42
Cambodia 0.47 Pakistan 0.58 Pakistan 1.29
Egypt 0.22 Italy 0.34 China 1.10
Italy 0.19 Egypt 0.32 Italy 0.61
Vietnam 0.16 Japan 0.30 Australia 0.47
Pakistan 0.12 Australia 0.18 Uruguay 0.39
Brazil 0.06 North Korea 0.17 Myanmar 0.29
World 6.05 World 9.23 World 16.72
As percent of world total (%):
Top 5 80 71 72
Top 10 93 85 89
Imports
Indonesia 0.70 Indonesia 1.02 Iran 0.77
Japan 0.66 Vietnam 0.62 Indonesia 0.75
India 0.58 South Korea 0.51 Brazil 0.68
Malaysia and 0.53 India 0.42 Saudi Arabia 0.47
Singapore
Sri Lanka 0.47 USSR 0.40 China 0.47
Hong Kong 0.31 Hong Kong 0.36 USSR/CIS 0.47
East Pakistan 0.25 Sri Lanka 0.35 Iraq 0.46
Cuba 0.20 Bangladesh 0.31 Philippines 0.42
West Germany 0.13 Malaysia 0.29 Malaysia 0.40
Philippines 0.11 Singapore 0.24 Senegal 0.40
World 6.10 World 9.30 World 16.05
As percent of world total (%):
Top 5 48 32 20
Top 10 65 49 33
Sources of raw data: Palacpac (1977) for 19501960, FAOStat on-line electronic database (2002) for
19611998. World exports and imports are not equal in any particular year in original data sources. USSR
is not included in 19501964 imports because of data availability constraints.
the record high of the previous year, but they still reached 43% of domestic pro-
duction in spite of the production shortfall. Thailand enacted quantitative restrictions
at this time (Siamwalla, 1975), but they were not very severe in their effect as exports
hit a near record of 1.5 million tons, with 40% of production being sent to the world
market. As a result of exports from these two countries, world prices barely budged
from the mid- to late 1950s.
Another major shortfall in per capita production occurred from 1959 to 1961, but
this was primarily due to the policies of the Great Leap Forward in China that led
to a dramatic collapse of production. Because of Chinas isolation at that time, it
364 D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
Fig. 3. Ratio of exports to domestic production, 19502000: Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Viet-
nam.
did not enter world markets to try and make up the decit with increased imports.
Again, world prices did not increase substantially.
Exit of the exporters: 19651981
The situation had changed considerably by the mid-1960s, when a major El Nin
˜o
event led to a sharp fall of 6% in per capita Asian production in 1965. By this time,
Burma, the leading rice exporter in the 1950s, was well into a period of sharp decline
due to the restrictive policies of General Ne Win, who had seized power in a coup
in 1962. Exports were falling, and by 1967, they had declined to just 11% of domestic
production (Fig. 3) as world prices surged 30%. The proportion of Cambodias pro-
duction that found its way onto world markets was also in a period of decline (Fig.
3). South Vietnam banned exports in 1965, and it did not return to the world market
as an exporter until the late 1980s. Perhaps more surprisingly, even Thailand was
becoming less commercially oriented. By 1967, revenue from rice export taxes had
fallen to just 6% of total government revenues, and this declined to just 1% by 1971
(Siamwalla, 1975). Since the government was no longer so reliant on export tax
revenue, it had more exibility to constrain exports in the interests of domestic price
stabilization. As a result, during the world price spike in 1967, Thailand raised its
rice premium (a form of export tax) to levels more than double than that of its
previous high.
By the early 1970s, the world market was even more unsettled. The proximate
cause of the world food crisis of 19731975 was a severe El Nin
˜o in 19721973,
followed by major La Nin
˜a events in 19731974 and 19751976. But this situation
was exacerbated considerably by the behavior of the traditional commercial rice
exporters. Thailands exports fell to just 10% of domestic production from 1973 to
1975, reaching their lowest point in the post-war period, and it banned exports com-
365D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
pletely for a few months in 1973 (Slayton, 1999). By this time, Cambodia had joined
South Vietnam and completely exited the market, while Burma was also out for all
practical purposes (Fig. 3). The situation was so difcult for countries wishing to
import rice that the experience of this period continues to shape policies and attitudes
in the region to the present day.
Re-emergence of market stabilizers: 19852000
By the middle to late 1980s, this situation had changed considerably for the better.
Thailands commercial orientation has increased steadily since the world food crisis,
with exports now typically accounting for 40% of domestic production. Vietnam has
re-entered the world rice market, with exports accounting for approximately 20% of
domestic production during the past 5 years. The presence of Thailand and Vietnam
as commercially oriented rice exporters was a major factor in stabilizing the world
market in 1998 in the face of a major El Nin
˜o event that led to a fall in per capita
Asian rice production. Thai exports surged to a record of 6.4 million tons, while
exports from Vietnam jumped to 3.8 million tons. The devaluation of the Thai baht
played an important role in spurring exports, but Fig. 3 shows that Thailand is also
now much more commercially oriented compared to the mid-1970s. This is reected
in current Thai policy, which now allows free trade in rice even if the consequence
is increased domestic prices (i.e. export taxes have been abolished). During the recent
nancial crisis, domestic rice prices in Thailand rose by more than 50% in real terms
between November 1997 and January 1998. Despite this rapid rise, the government
allowed domestic prices to track world prices one for one. This is an important policy
change that adds considerably to the stability of the world market.
Myanmar and Cambodia are yet to return to the world market to play a major
role. Especially in Myanmar, more liberal domestic policies would increase domestic
production and exports substantially. Nevertheless, other exporters have emerged to
complement Thailand and Vietnam. The share of exports in production in Pakistan
has steadily increased during the past two decades, and is now typically 40%. China
and India have also emerged as important exporters in recent years. Although the
vast majority of rice production in the worlds two largest countries is consumed
domestically, both have proved able to export large quantities in recent years. India
was the worlds second largest exporter (behind only Thailand) in 1996 and 1998,
exporting more than 5 million tons in 1998. China exported more than 3.5 million
tons in 1998. The apparent willingness of these countries to supply world markets
lends added stability in times of crisis.
3
The renewed presence of several commercially oriented rice exporters is reected
in the share of world rice production that is traded on world markets. Between 1961
and 1993, world trade uctuated between 3.5 and 5% of world production (on aver-
age, it was 4.3%). Since 1994, however, the ratio has exceeded 5% every single
3
Although the US is also a major exporter, most US rice is too expensive to enter the Asian trade
on a purely commercial basis.
366 D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
year, and the share traded has averaged 6.1%. This does not make the world rice
market as heavily traded as world wheat and maize markets, but it still represents
an important increase. Furthermore, although the world rice market is less heavily
traded than other grain markets, world rice prices are now more stable than world
wheat and maize prices, in contrast to earlier periods (Table 6). Thus, while world
market price stability has improved for all three major grains, it has improved most
for rice.
Whither the world rice market?
The recent plunge in world prices
What does the future hold for the world rice market, in terms of the level and
stability of prices? In terms of levels, prices have declined substantially in the past
3 years. From 1998 to 2001, the price of 100Bs (the highest quality rice of those
that are widely traded) fell 48% in real terms. The price of 25% brokens, a quality
roughly equivalent to what is eaten by average consumers in major importing coun-
tries such as Indonesia and Philippines, declined by a similar amount.
The magnitude of this decline is nearly equivalent to the precipitous decline that
occurred from the early to mid-1980s, and the reasons behind it are similar as well.
First, after importing 6 million ton in 1998, Indonesia greatly reduced its exposure
to the world market in succeeding years. The reasons were different this time (a
recovery in production from the El Nin
˜o drought, a depreciation of the exchange
rate, and a tariff on rice as opposed to a production surge caused by new technology
and infrastructure), but the consequences were the same: lower world prices. Second,
the Thai baht was devalued during the Asian nancial crisis. Third, rice production
has surged recently in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, and India. From 1995 to 1999
(just 4 years), production surged 30, 26, 30, and 15% in these four large countries,
respectively. Much of this recent surge was underpinned by public and private invest-
Table 6
Comparative stability of world grain markets
Commodity 19571964 19651981 19851998
Average absolute value of annual percentage price changes (%)
Maize 5 12 15
Wheat 4 16 15
Rice 7 24 11
RMSE (from regression of real price vs. time trend) normalized by average price
Maize 0.068 0.222 0.155
Wheat 0.066 0.284 0.147
Rice 0.065 0.341 0.111
Source of raw data: IMF (2002). Time periods do not correspond exactly to those in Table 1 because
shorter time-series of prices are available for wheat and maize than for rice.
367D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
ments in water control. For example, the proportion of irrigated area in Bangladesh
was just 25% in the early 1990s, but it is now more than half due to the expansion
of private sector shallow tubewell irrigation. Vietnam has recently invested heavily
in constructing sluice gates to control salinization and new canal systems to increase
rice area in the Mekong Delta.
A simple structural model of world rice prices
The similarity of events surrounding the two large price declines of the past 20
years suggests the possibility of isolating the contributions of each factor through
the use of a multiple regression model (Table 7). The model was estimated in both
levels and rst differences. The results were similar for both, but only the results
for the level specication are presented.
4
The price series used was for 25% brokens
because this is the most common quality imported by the two main Asian developing
country importers, Indonesia and Philippines. (Similar results were also obtained
with the price series for 100Bs, the highest grade of indica rice on the world market.)
The time period covered by the analysis was 19842000. Earlier data were not used
because the structure of the world market was different before 1984, as argued above.
Explanatory variables included 1 and 2 year lags of per capita production, a 1
year lag of the logarithm of the nominal Thai baht versus US$ exchange rate, and
Indonesian imports. (A measure of the real exchange rate of the baht versus the US$
was also used, with similar results. Time trends were included in both the level and
rst difference specications, but were not signicant.) Since population growth is
the main source of demand growth in the Asian rice economy, production was nor-
malized by population, i.e. per capita rice production was used as the independent
Table 7
Coefcient estimates from structural model of real world rice prices
Variable Coefcient estimate Standard error t-Statistic p-Value
Constant 3331 411 8.11 0.00
PCP(-1) 6.73 2.31 2.91 0.01
PCP(-2) 7.47 2.20 3.40 0.01
lnBahtUS$(-1) 222 64 3.45 0.01
IndonImports 8.56 5.33 1.61 0.13
Estimation uses annual data from 1984 to 2000 (FAO, 2002; IMF, 2002; USDA, 2000). Dependent vari-
able is real price (25% brokens). PCP is per capita rice production for an aggregate of 17 large Asian
countries (see note to Fig. 2). lnBahtUS$ is the natural logarithm of the Thai baht/US$ exchange rate.
IndonImports is net rice imports by Indonesia. Number of observations=17; R
2
0.86; adjusted R
2
0.81; DW statistic=1.31.
4
DickeyFuller tests indicate that the null hypothesis of a unit root for real prices cannot be rejected,
but weighted symmetric (t) tests indicate that real prices are I(0). Since ttests dominate DickeyFuller
tests in terms of power (Pantula et al., 1994), the level specication is reported in the text.
368 D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
variable. This normalization keeps the demand curve xed and allows estimation
without resorting to a system of simultaneous equations. Net trade in rice for Asia
is a very small percentage of total production.
Thailand is the worlds largest exporter and Indonesia the worlds largest rice
importer, justifying the use of important economic variables from these two coun-
tries. Policy and structural differences between the two countries account for the
different manner in which the Indonesia and Thailand variables enter the model.
First, Indonesian imports were hypothesized to have a contemporaneous effect on
world prices, while the value of the Thai baht was hypothesized to affect the world
price with a 1-year lag. This is because import demand can increase world prices
in a very short term, while changes in production incentives for Thai farmers trans-
mitted through the exchange rate require time before farmers can adjust planting
decisions. Also, during the past 20 years, private sector rice exports from Thailand
have been largely unrestricted. Thus, export quantities are endogenous to world
prices and it is necessary to use the value of the Thai baht instead of exports in
order to have the independent variable be exogenous. On the other hand, net Indone-
sian imports are used because import and export decisions were under monopoly
control of the Indonesian government until very recently and were made in response
to domestic needs, not the level of the world price. Thus, Indonesian imports are
effectively exogenous to world prices.
All estimated coefcients are of the expected sign and have relatively low p-
values, although the coefcient on Indonesian imports is not statistically signicant
at conventional levels. Furthermore, the model captures turning points in prices over
the interval quite well. The magnitude of the coefcient estimate for the variable
measuring net Indonesian imports implies that an increase in Indonesian imports of
1 million tons is associated with an increase in world prices of US$8.56 per ton,
other things being equal. The magnitude of the coefcient on the value of the Thai
baht implies that a depreciation of the baht by 10% in year tis associated with a
decline in world prices of US$22 per ton in year (t1). The coefcients on the
two lags of per capita production imply that an increase in per capita production of
1 kg paddy per capita in year tis associated with a decline in prices of US$6.73
per ton in year (t1) and a further US$7.47 per ton in year (t2). (Current per
capita production is approximately 165 kg paddy per capita.)
The future of the world rice market and policy implications
If this model is at least approximately true, it would imply that prices will remain
in the neighborhood of their current low levels for the medium term, barring a large
fall in per capita rice production, a major appreciation of the Thai baht, or Indonesia
becoming an important exporter. The latter two alternatives seem unlikely, and there
are no concrete signs of per capita production falling from current near record levels.
The one possible countervailing factor is the long-term slowdown in yield growth
that has occurred throughout Asia. This phenomenon has been most pronounced in
countries like Indonesia and Philippines that were among the rst to embrace the
modern varieties of the Green Revolution (Otsuka, 2000). In both of these countries,
369D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
rice yields are no higher today than they were 10 years ago. If yield growth continues
to decelerate throughout Asia, and does so faster than population growth, then per
capita production will probably begin to decline and this may cause rice prices to rise.
Furthermore, it seems likely that world prices will generally remain stable in the
near future, just as they have during the past 15 years. The improvement in stability
has come about due to the greater importance of irrigation in rice production, the
improved pest and disease resistance of modern varieties, and the re-emergence and
strengthening of the commercial orientation of major rice exporting nations. None
of these trends are likely to be reversed. Although the growth of irrigation is slowing
in Asia, the share of irrigated land in total rice area is still increasing (albeit slowly).
Plant breeders continue to improve the insect and disease resistance of modern var-
ieties, and biotechnology holds out hope for even more improvements in this area.
Finally, as the world economy moves toward freer trade and increasing integration,
it is unlikely that Thailand and Vietnam will turn their back on the world rice market.
And with appropriate changes in policies, Myanmar and Cambodia may emerge to
become important stabilizing forces once again sometime in the next decade.
Reduced price variability does not necessarily mean that the effects of instability
are now entirely negligible. Price uctuations still cause serious problems for many
poor Asians, and the resultant effects on producer and consumer welfare can have
political repercussions. And, even if the world rice market is relatively quiet in the
future, increased nancial market liberalization may lead to greater exchange rate
uctuations in the future (Stiglitz, 2000). Under free trade, changes in exchange rates
translate to changes in domestic rice prices just as much as changes in world rice
prices, and Asian governments will need to formulate cost-effective policies to deal
with these issues (Dawe, 2001). Nevertheless, it seems likely that the combination
of low and stable prices on the international market will continue for the medium
term. This suggests that there is less risk if rice importing countries decide to rely
on the world market more heavily than they have in the past.
Acknowledgements
I thank C. Peter Timmer and Scott Pearson for many helpful suggestions. The
standard disclaimer applies.
References
Barker, R., Herdt, R.W., Rose, B., 1985. The Rice Economy of Asia. Resources for the Future, Wash-
ington, DC.
Dawe, D., 2001. How far down the path to free trade? The importance of rice price stabilization in
developing Asia. Food Policy 26 (2), 163175.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), 2002. Electronic on-line database. Avail-
able from http://www.fao.org.
Falcon, W.C., Monke, E., 1979-1980. International trade in rice. Food Research Institute Studies 17 (3),
271306.
370 D. Dawe / Food Policy 27 (2002) 355370
Hayami, Y., Kikuchi, M., 1978. Investment inducements to public infrastructure: irrigation in the Philip-
pines. The Review of Economics and Statistics 6 (1), 7077.
Huang, J., Rozelle, S., 1996. Technological change: rediscovering the engine of productivity growth in
Chinas rural economy. Journal of Development Economics 49, 337369.
Huke, R.E., Huke, E.H., 1997. Rice area by type of culture: South, Southeast and East Asia. International
Rice Research Institute, Manila, Philippines.
IMF (International Monetary Fund) 2002. International nancial statistics CD-ROM Database. Wash-
ington, DC.
Jayne, T., 1993. Sources and effects of instability in the world rice market, MSU International Develop-
ment Paper No. 13. Department of Agricultural Economics and Department of Economics, Michigan
State University, p.104.
Khush, G.S., 1995. Modern varieties: their real contribution to food supply and equity. GeoJournal 35
(3), 275284.
Monke, E., Pearson, S., 1991. The international rice market. In: Pearson, S., Falcon, W., Heytens, P.,
Monke, E., Naylor, R. (Eds.), Rice Policy in Indonesia. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) web site, 2000.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/enso.meiindex.html.
Otsuka, K., 2000. Role of agricultural research in poverty reduction: lessons from the Asian experience.
Food Policy 25, 447462.
Palacpac, A., 1977. World Rice Statistics. International Rice Research Institute Department of Agricultural
Economics, p.140.
Pantula, S.G., Gonzalez-Farias, G., Fuller, W.A., 1994. A comparison of unit-root test criteria. Journal
of Business and Economic Statistics 10, 449459.
Pindyck, R.S., Rotemberg, J.J., 1990. The excess co-movement of commodity prices. Economic Journal
100 (December), 11731189.
Rosegrant, M.W., Sombilla, M.A., Perez, N., 1995. Global Food Projections to 2020: implications for
investment. Food, Agriculture and the Environment Discussion Paper No. 5. International Food Policy
Research Institute, Washington, DC.
Rosegrant, M.W., Svendsen, M., 1993. Asian food production in the 1990s: irrigation investment and
management policy. Food Policy 18 (2), 1332.
Sarris, A.H., 2000. World cereal price instability and a market based instrument for LDC food import
risk management. Food Policy 25 (2), 189209.
Siamwalla, A., 1975. A history of rice policies in Thailand. Food Research Institute Studies 14 (3),
233249.
Siamwalla, A., Haykin, S., 1983. The world rice market: structure, conduct, and performance. Research
Report 39, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, p. 79.
Slayton, T., 1999. The outlook for the rice trade in the new millennium. In: Paper presented at the Fourth
Asia International Rice Conference, Cebu, Philippines, August.
Stiglitz, J.E., 2000. Capital market liberalization, economic growth, and instability. World Development
28 (6), 10751086.
Timmer, C.P., Falcon, W.P., Pearson, S.R., 1983. Food Policy Analysis. Johns Hopkins University Press,
Baltimore, MD Published for the World Bank.
UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), 1997. Human Development Report. Oxford University
Press, New York.
USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), 2000. Daily market quotations from GAIN (Global
Agricultural Information Network) report.
Zhang, B., Carter, C.A., 1997. Reforms, the weather and productivity growth in Chinas grain sector.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79 (4), 12661277.
... In response, the 6th National Congress of the Communist Party in 1986 implemented comprehensive, synchronized, and radical reforms (Huong & Fry, 2004). Within ten years, Vietnam had emerged from the crisis and became a rice-exporting nation by 1996 (Dawe, 2002). The next phase of development required a shift toward industrialization and modernization, with education identified as a top national priority. ...
Article
Full-text available
This study evaluates the progress of Vietnam’s educational reform, initiated under Resolution No. 29-NQ/TW in 2013, which aimed to align the nation’s education system with socio-economic objectives such as industrialization, modernization, and global integration. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative and qualitative analyses, the research examines achievements, challenges, and limitations across key areas such as learner-centered education, digital transformation, teacher development, and internationalization. Significant progress has been observed, including the universalization of preschool education, improvements in teacher qualifications, and the integration of digital tools, positioning Vietnam as a regional leader in education. However, challenges remain, including insufficient preparation of financial and human resources, inconsistent policy implementation, and the lack of a cohesive educational philosophy. Persistent inequities, outdated teaching methodologies, and limited alignment with labor market demands further constrain reform efforts. The findings emphasize the importance of targeted investments in teacher training, infrastructure, and governance, alongside fostering stronger international partnerships. This study highlights Vietnam’s potential to establish a globally competitive education system and provides actionable recommendations for addressing systemic barriers. The results contribute to global discussions on educational reform in developing nations, offering lessons for sustainable and equitable transformation.
... They cannot cover their living costs with the net income from paddy selling. They are facing very difficult conditions, that is why they cannot enlarge their paddy-cultivated land [10][11][12][13]. Moreover, in the absence of the farmer's agriculture cooperatives, farmers have to go through different traders to sell paddy [14]. ...
Article
Aim: The study examines the evolution of the indigenous paddy/rice marketing system in Bangladesh. Study Design: Descriptive-quantitative and qualitative. Place and Duration of Study: For the research study, a simple random sampling procedure was used in two districts of Bangladesh, Brahmanbaria and Habiganj. The survey was conducted from February to March 2022. Methodology: In total, 113 farmers and 43 different paddy and rice traders’ data were collected from two villages in Brahmanbaria. In addition, data was also collected from 179 farmers in six villages and 23 different types of paddy and rice traders in Habiganj district. The data was tabulated and entered in SPSS 18 and MS Excel to calculate descriptive statistics. Results: The study revealed that in the indigenous paddy/rice marketing channel, Faria and LPA/Bepari were both very active actors. Over time, Faria’s business vanished in the 2nd stage, and LPA/Bepari has become the dominant actor, as about 64.3% of paddy is traded through them. In the 3rd stage, LPA/Bepari’s business has decreased, and LPB/Paddy Aratdar has become a dominant actor as about 68.9% of paddy is traded through them. In the 3rd stage, Paddy Aratdar cum Wholesaler has vanished from the paddy/rice marketing channel. Due to intense competition among paddy and rice traders, changes in their functions and marketing power in the paddy and rice markets, the development of infrastructure, and the enlarging of farmers’ facility conditions are the main reasons for the change. Conclusion: Therefore, infrastructure and farmer facility condition enhancement need to be extended for future paddy/rice marketing structure improvement.
... Pakistan is the world's 10th largest producer of rice, and its exports make up more than 8% of the world's total rice trade (Irshad et al., 2018). The country produces an average of 6 million tons of rice each year, contributing to foreign exchange earnings (Dawe, 2002). On the other hand, wheat contributes around 37% of the total food energy intake in Pakistan (Javed et al., 2016). ...
Article
Full-text available
Cadmium (Cd) accumulates in the vegetative tissues of rice and wheat crops, posing a serious threat in the food chain. A long-term field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of rice husk biochar (RHB), farm manure (FM), press mud (PrM), and poultry manure (PM) on the growth, yield, and economics of wheat and rice crops grown with sewage water. The results showed that RHB increased wheat plant height (27, 66, 70%), spike-length (33, 99, 56%), straw yield (21, 51, 49%), and grain yield (42, 63, 65%) in year-1, year-2, and year-3, than respective controls. For rice crop, RHB showed the maximum increase in plant height (64, 92, 96%), spike length (55, 95, 90%), straw yield (34, 53, 55%), and grain yield (46, 66, 69%) each year (2019–2021), compared to their respective controls. The Cd immobilization was increased by the application of RHB while other treatments followed FM > PrM > PM > control in each year of wheat and rice crops. For year-1, benefit-cost ratio remained maximum with the application of FM while for the 2nd and 3rd years in sequence, RHB proved more economical than other treatments and consistently produced wheat and rice with lower Cd concentration than FM, PrM, and PM in grains. This long-term experiment suggested that the application of organic amendments consistently increased biomass of rice and wheat and decreased the Cd concentration in tissues. The RHB remained more effective compared with FM, PrM, and PM in terms of yield, low Cd accumulation and economics of rice and wheat crops.
... Other Factors Include: Trends in the world market: The dynamics of the world market may have an impact on rice prices. Local rice prices can be impacted by changes in domestic supply and demand, export limitations by major rice-producing nations, and shifts in world commodities prices [21]. Changes in currency rates; these changes can alter the price of imported rice, which can have an impact on domestic pricing. ...
Article
This review paper aimed to provide a short note of the causes behind price increases in rice. Several causes might be intricately linked. The following are some typical causes of price increases for rice. With strong literature support, these causes include a) climate and weather conditions, b) customer demand, c) fertilization, d) diseases and pests, e) costs associated with transportation and distribution, and other factors. In order to keep rice prices stable and ensure that the populace has access to food, government regulations and actions might be extremely important.
... Fourth, we found the contributions to others (To) and from others (From) is stronger in both the extreme quantiles than that of the middle (See Tables 2a-2b), which is consistent with another research involving other asset classes ( [48][49][50]). Fifth, Rice, Orange, Chicken, Tea & Groundnut Oil were net receivers in extreme quantiles (0.1 & 0.9) (Fig. 3), Rice has been proven as an unstable market, with an uncertain supply and highly volatile prices, therefore it is intuitively an absorber of external shocks [51]. The pass-through price elasticity of chicken has been relatively high, therefore making it an eligible commodity as a shock-receiver [52]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Agri commodities have been investigated in the past to determine their inter-relationships. However, no study has checked their risk spillover/connectedness for six decades using extreme quantiles. Various shocks (positive/negative) often pose challenges to these commodities over the past six decades. Such shocks’ impact is usually observed in extreme quantiles or tails. Therefore, we have investigated fourteen agri commodities (namely Coffee, Cocoa, Soyabean, Wheat, Sugar, Orange, Chicken, Beef, Maize, Tea, Coconut Oil, Groundnut Oil, Palm Oil & Rice) from January 1, 1960 to June 1, 2022 (covering 62 years on a monthly basis), deploying Quantile VAR or QVAR as suggested by [1](extended [2,3] calibration). We found that the risk spillover/connectedness never came down for these Agri commodities. It is always at a higher level (more than 55%) proving that agri commodities remain vulnerable to various shocks throughout. Spillover looks symmetric as both the extreme tails enjoy about 92–93% connectedness levels, whereas the median is below 60%. Rice, Orange Juice, Chicken, Tea and Groundnut Oil were consistent net receivers across such a long-time frame, whereas Palm Oil, Soyabeans, Maize and Wheat were net emitters all through. Further, we found decreasing complexity (network connectedness reduction) with increased quantiles. Since these findings are over such an extended period, policy decisions can be made based on them.
... Processing has proven to be crucial to the sustainability of the RVC. Inefficiencies in milled rice production for Nigeria only increased economic pressures by allowing for international rice market price shocks to be transferred to the domestic economy (Dawe, 2002). Ebonyi State is one of the major States making significant contribution towards Nigeria Africa's attainment to self-sufficiency in rice production. ...
Article
Full-text available
The paper examined adaptation strategies used by rice processors in Ebonyi State to manage climate risks. The paper used random sampling technique to select respondents and questionnaire was used to collect data from the respondents. Cross-sectional data collected from 98 rice processors were analysed using descriptive statistics and multivariate probit regression model. The results indicated that majority of the rice processors perceived prolonged dry season and increased rainfall intensity as the main climate risks in the state. Livelihood diversification, storing of paddy, and reliance on climate information were the major adaptation strategies used by the rice processors to manage the climate risks. The main determinants of climate change adaptation strategies of rice processors were education, membership of cooperative societies, income, training on rice processing and climate risk management, experience of climate hazards, and ownership of assets. The processors faced various barriers to adoption which are mainly related to capital needs, competition from foreign brands, access to basic infrastructure and roads and information, high cost of labour. It is recommended that government support be given to the rice producing communities in terms of basic infrastructure and policies to protect the industry. Also, regular workshops/trainings should be held to train processors on best climate risk management practices and encourage registration of processor cooperatives/relevant associations.
... As a result, increased production costs increase domestic food prices. Dawe (2002), estimated that 10% U.S. dollar against of Thai baht results in 22$/mt decrease in global rice prices. ...
Article
Full-text available
The study attempts to add significant outcomes to the U.S. food prices literature by performing a dynamic regression model and a frequency domain causality test to explore the causality and relationships between U.S. food prices, energy prices, economic policy uncertainty, and the value of the U.S. dollar. It is shown that dollar price negatively affects the food price index at both high and low volatility periods. Furthermore, it is presented that there is a permanent long-run causal relationship running from the dollar index to the food price index. The results indicated that there is a significant positive relationship between the energy price index and the food price index. Moreover, energy is found to be a long-run and permanent cause of the food price index. The effect of uncertainty has not been sufficiently explored in the food pricing field, the outcome of this study reveals that uncertainty increases the food price index at high volatility times. Besides, uncertainty is shown to be the long-run and permanent cause of the food price index.
Article
The burgeoning frequency and intensity of varied global exogenous shocks such as climate variability, economic slowdowns, conflicts, scarcity, changing demand pattern, loss of Agricultural land, new age diseases etc have undermined the food security and diets around the world. There is a growing consensus of nutrition transition paving its way towards convergence of global diets. Our study aims to investigate the significant changes in the global dietary pattern with the plausible reasons for the underlying changes. We analysed data for 14 Agri-commodities across 171 countries for a period of 63 years (1960–2023) from the Pink Sheet of World Bank Commodity details. We have divided the time period into six sub-samples each a decade apart. We have employed the Time Varying VAR method to study the frequency of shock emitting events to determine the significant dietary changes. Our results suggest the periodicity in shock emitting pattern of the Agri-commodities. All the sub-samples exhibit extreme spillover effect throughout. This underscores the fundamental vulnerability of the Agri-commodities, as far too many uncorrelated events impact the Agri-commodity ecosystem. The results highlight the importance of the ‘3R Strategy’ (suggested by the University of Oxford) consisting resist, recover & reorient for achieving stability in the overall food systems against climate change (region wise & for some cases country specific) as well as the measures of sustainable intensification to ensure soil efficiency and economic viability simultaneously. We found, Indonesia (an exporter of Palm Oil) and Brazil (an exporter of Groundnut Oil & Chicken) have reoriented themselves, whereas China (for Groundnut Oil), India (for Palm Oil) & Sub-Saharan Africa (for Chicken) have resisted the changes and on path of recovery. The pattern of dominating Agri commodities is evident, as the exporters are ‘reorienting’ whereas the importers are ‘resisting & recovering’.
Article
Full-text available
Objectifs : Le riz africain a été utilisé pendant longtemps dans les systèmes d'amélioration variétale. Malheureusement, il est en voie de disparition. Cette revue analytique vise principalement à faire une synthèse des travaux réalisés sur le riz africain afin de définir des perspectives de recherche pour sa valorisation. Méthodologie et résultats : Elle est réalisée à partir d'une documentation axée sur la pertinence des articles. Une centaine d'articles scientifiques parus dans des revues indexées et/ou à facteur d'impact à diffusion internationale ont été exploités. Les résultats montrent que le riz en générale a une grande importance socio-économique et alimentaire. Les potentialités agronomiques et génétiques du riz africain font de lui un important patrimoine agricole pour faire face aux défis de l'agriculture en Afrique et à l'amélioration variétale. Ses performances avec les contraintes liées à sa compétitivité suscitent un élan de recherche en vue de sa valorisation. Conclusion et applications des résultats : Le riz africain constitue un véritable réservoir de gènes de résistance ou de tolérance à de nombreux stress environnementaux et présente également une diversité variétale lui permettant de s'adapter à plusieurs types d'habitat. Il ressort de cette revue analytique qu'une perspective de recherche axée sur l'exploitation des atouts du riz africain permettrait de booster la production rizicole en Afrique et de limiter sa dépendance en riz importé. Ce plan de recherche offrira une visibilité au riz africain et contribuera à la souveraineté alimentaire en Afrique. Gnacadja et al., J. Appl. Biosci. 2018 Revue analytique des performances agronomiques, nutritionnelles et perspectives de valorisation du riz africain (Oryza glaberrima) 12212 African rice (Oryza glaberrima), alternative for imported rice ? Analytical review of agronomic and nutritional performance and prospects for valorization ABSTRACT Objectives : For a long time African rice (Oryza glaberrima) was used in rice varietal improvement technical systems. Unfortunately, the African species is on the brink of extinction. This analytical review aims at summarising the work done about African rice in order to define research perspectives for its valorisation. Méthodology and results : It is based on documentary research focuses on the relevance of the articles. In total, some 100 scientific articles appeared in indexed journals and / or with an international impact factor have been exploited. The results show rice, generally has socio economic and food importance. The agronomic performance of African rice (Oryza glaberrima) makes it an important agricultural heritage for the challenges of agriculture in Africa and varietal improvement. Its genetic potential and its competitiveness constraints arouses research prospects for its valorisation. Conclusions and application of findings : African rice is a reservoir of genes for resistance or tolerance to many environmental stresses and it also has varietal diversity allowing to adapt to several soil types. From the analysis of its results, a scientific research perspective focusing on the full exploitation of the assets of African rice would boost rice production in Africa and limit its dependence on imported rice. This research plan will provide visibility to African rice on a global scale and in the balance of food sovereignty in Africa.
Article
We use disaggregate county-level production data to study the effects of economic reform on China's grain production between 1980 and 1990. China's grain production area is divided into five regions based on geographic, agronomic, and meteorological criteria. Regional grain production functions are estimated, and weather is explicitly modeled. The institutional impact of economic reform was found to explain about 38% of the production growth from 1980 to 1985. This is lower than the estimates reported in many previous studies. Regional differences in efficiency gains from economic reform and in the effects of weather on grain production are found to be significant.
Article
Green revolution technology, centered on high-yielding varieties, has revolutionized rice production since the late 1960''s. These varieties are characterized by higher yield potential, better grain quality, shorter growth duration, multiple resistance to diseases and insects and tolerance to problem soils. High yielding varieties are now planted to 70% of the world''s rice lands. Most countries in the Asian rice belt have become self sufficient in rice and some have exportable surpluses. The real prices of rice have declined in most countries. This price decline has benefitted the urban poor and rural landless. Labor requirement has also increased from higher intensity of cropping and resulted in growth of income of the rural landless workers. Availability of rice varieties with multiple resistance reduced the need for application of agrochemicals and facilitated the adoption of integrated pest management practices. The population of rice consumers is increasing at the rate of 2% annually. However the rate of growth of rice production has slowed to 1.2%. To reverse this trend, rice plant types with higher yield potential are being developed.
Article
International trade agreements are pushing the world in the direction of free trade. But price stabilization, which is inconsistent with completely free trade, remains important in developing Asia because of the large share of rice in economic output. A policy of pure price stabilization for rice, without consistent protection (either subsidization or taxation), can help to create the macroeconomic stability that is essential for sustained rapid economic growth by increasing the quantity and efficiency of investment throughout the economy. Pure price stabilization can also generate significant equity gains by protecting poor consumers and farmers from sharp fluctuations in prices. While domestic commodity price stabilization schemes have a checkered history around the world, the experience of Asian countries in stabilizing rice prices offers more scope for optimism. Asian governments have been generally successful in stabilizing rice prices, and there are several instances where this has been accomplished without sustained protection of either consumers or farmers. However, there is room for improved stabilization mechanisms that would lower the costs of intervention.
Article
The poor spend much of their income on food, depend primarily on labour earnings, and tend to reside in marginal agricultural areas. To reduce poverty, agricultural research should aim to ensure adequate food supplies by developing yield-increasing technologies, to increase labour demand by developing labour-using technologies and to develop technologies suitable for marginal areas. This article seeks to identify “appropriate” technologies that agricultural research should generate for poverty reduction. The identification is based on a review of the experience of the Green Revolution in rice production in Asia and an assessment of the changing structure of income sources among rural households in the Philippines.
Article
This paper focuses on measuring the relative importance of the role of technology versus that of institutional innovation in China's rural economy. A six-equation rice sector model explaining provincial-level technology adoption, yield, and factor demand are econometrically estimated using data from China's 13 rice growing provinces for the period 1975–1990. Growth decomposition analysis identifies technology adoption as the most important determinant of rice yield growth during 1978–1984, accounting for nearly 40 percent the change; institutional reform accounted for 35 percent of the growth. In 1985–1990, technology accounts for all of the increase in rice yields. The study demonstrates earlier studies may have over-estimated the impact of decollectivization.
Article
This paper reviews briefly the arguments for capital market liberalization, and identifies their theoretical and empirical weaknesses. This provides the foundations for the argument for intervention in short-term capital flows. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the various ways in which such interventions may be implemented.
Article
The paper reviews the types of responses of low income food deficit country (LIFDC) agents to food related shocks. It suggests that LIFDCs would probably benefit from internationally provided insurance. The paper then argues that the world cereal markets do not appear to have become more unstable despite recent liberalisation and declines in world stocks. The paper proposes the institution of a fund aimed at providing option like contracts to the LIFDCs, to insure that they would not incur excessive food import costs in times of need. The premiums of such contract could be subsidised by developed countries, as part of their overall aid. While such a fund would not provide full insurance against excessive food import bills, it would go part of the way toward such a goal. Simulations of the proposal suggest that the cost to developed and developing countries alike would seem to be smaller than the cost of current arrangements, and the benefits would seem larger.