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Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

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Abstract

This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.

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... Studies by Tversky and Kahneman (1974) and Ariely et al. (2003) highlight how anchoring restricts rational decision-making in financial contexts. These cognitive tendencies reveal how psychological factors can overshadow analytical evaluation in investment practices. ...
... Anchoring bias occurs when investors rely too heavily on initial information or a specific reference point when making investment choices. Tversky and Kahneman (1974) ...
... Anchoring bias, another key factor, was also found to significantly influence investment decisions, echoing the findings of Tversky and Kahneman (1974) and Al Rahahleh (2024). ...
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... An Anchoring bias [8], also known as anchoring effect, occurs when an initial information (the anchor) strongly influences proceeding judgements. The effects of anchoring bias have been predominantly found in humans, and more recently studied on the effects of LLMs. ...
... Framing Effect [11], one of the largest know biases in decision making, describes how the way of framing a statement (usually positively or negatively), can impact values or judgements. Traditional theories have held that the framing bias may have stemmed from loss aversion [8] -a tendency to be more heavily impacted by losses than similar gains of the same scale. Suri et al. [9] conducted studies on GPT-3.5 on the impacts of framing biases. ...
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... The following Table 1 provides a succinct overview of the topics and their corresponding authors or citations, encapsulating the breadth of research across cognitive analysis, construction project management, and advances in neuroimaging and decisionmaking. Priming Effects and Cognitive Functions Dijksterhuis & van Knippenberg, 1998;Fitzsimons, et al., 2008;Friedman & Förster, 2000;Kay, et al., 2004;Slepian et al., 2010;Slepian et al., 2015 Cognitive Theories in Decision-Making and Perception Epstein et al., 1996;Evans, 2008;Evans & Stanovich 2013;Keren & Schul, 2009;Todd & Gigerenzer, 2000;Tversky & Kahneman, 1974;Tversky et al., 1982;Von Neumann & Morgenstern, 1947;Vranas, 2000 The Role of Attention and Visualization in Cognition Castle & Buckler, 2009;Duval, 2011;Fabrikant et al., 2010;Hegarty et al., 2010;Hegarty et al., 2016;Padilla et al., 2017;Schmidt 1995;Schirillo & Stone, 2005;Stone et al., 2003;Stone et al., 1997Human Factors Analysis in Construction Chi et al., 2012Hinze et al., 2005;Shappel & Wiegmann, 2000 Cognitive Theories and Models in High-Risk Sectors Ashcraft, 1989;Barnes et al., 2002;Reason, 1990;Flower & Hayes, 1981;Farrow, 1991;Koda 1988 Human Information Processing and Cognitive Load in Construction Kines, 2003;Mohan & Duarte, 2006;Nakayasu et al., 2010;Wickens et al., 2021 Enhancing Construction Safety through Cognitive Systems Engineering Jackson & Harel, 2017;Vicente, 1999;Saurin et al., 2005 Stress and Mental Strain in the Construction Sector Alonso et al., 2015;Abbe et al., 2011;Jebelli, 2019;Campbell, 2006;Haynes & Love, 2004;Castaldo, 2015;Bernston & Cacioppo, 2004;Choi et al., 2015;Seo et al., 2010 Advances in Neuroimaging and Decision-Making Gold & Shadlen, 2007;Romo & Salinas, 2003;Sajda et al., 2009;Smith & Nichols, 2018 The Role of Brain Imaging in Cognitive Studies Bassett & Gazzaniga, 2011;Banville & Falk, 2016;Johnson & Haan, 2015;Sulbaran & Kisi, 2024;, Funahashi, 2017Koren et al., 2020;Williams et al., 2023 Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (fNIRS) Table 1 is created, the next step was to use a thematic analysis and reorganize them to realign with the study's objectives. For example, Table 2 shows a short version of how the contents of the literature were organized under specific themes, with each entry comprising a synthesized topic drawn from the literature review, followed by key references that support the topic. ...
... Chen et al., 2017;Clevenger et al., 2020;Wang et al., 2021;Zhu & Mostafavi, 2017 Role of Cognitive Analysis and Modeling Investigation into cognitive analysis and modeling techniques such as COGNET for understanding human-computer interaction and decision-making processes in construction. Kunz et al., 2004;Todd & Gigerenzer, 2000;Tversky et al., 1982;Tversky & Kahneman, 1974;Von Neumann & Morgenstern, 1947 Impact of Neuroimaging on Decision-Making Assessment of how neuroimaging technologies like fNIRS contribute to understanding the neural basis of decision-making processes. Gold & Shadlen, 2007;Heekeren et al., 2008;Romo & Salinas, 2003;Sajda et al., 2009;Smith & Nichols, 2018 Application of Cognitive Systems Engineering Application of Cognitive Systems Engineering principles to improve safety management and task allocation in construction, emphasizing a holistic view of worker-system interaction. ...
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While substantial advances have been made in Cognitive Science and Neuroimaging, a notable gap remains in assessing cognitive status within the construction sector. This paper aims to demonstrate the considerable benefits of interdisciplinary approaches in enhancing project management effectiveness and outcomes by examining the complex interplay between cognitive processes, decision-making, and project management. Key findings indicate that cognitive status plays a critical role in the performance of construction workers, underscoring the necessity of prioritizing cognitive well-being in project strategies. Furthermore, the review highlights a deficiency in objective tools for evaluating cognitive status and proposes the adoption of neuroimaging technologies as a solution. By integrating neuroscientific insights with management practices, leaders can enhance training, team dynamics, and risk assessment, ultimately improving decision-making and productivity in construction project management.
... This is also what an MBA course on decision making would typically cover. Only occasionally we come across classes on heuristics and biases (Kahneman et al., 1982;Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), decision traps (Hammond et al., 1998), and perhaps of superficial mentions of intuition and emotions, usually limited to what Simon (1987) said on the topic. ...
Conference Paper
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How we see decisions has changed significantly over the past few decades. However, what has not changed is that any decision requires knowledge, and this knowledge needs to be validated. In a traditional view, choice is preceded by intelligence and design, more recently, it has been argued that choice is often the first step, followed by intelligence and design to provide an explanation to the stakeholders. We introduce a process of knowledge validation for decision making, useful in both types of decision situations. In this paper we suggest a process of knowledge validation for decision making that comprises three facets: consistency, relevance, and applicability. The increased transparency of the validation process, however, does not enable competitors to copy knowledge, as due to the personal nature of knowledge and decisions only the stakeholders will be able to make sense of the consistent, relevant and applicable knowledge.
... In the 1970s, social scientists tended to view humans as rational beings, and attributed deviations from rational behavior to the byproduct of emotions. Nobel Prize winner in Economics Daniel Kahneman and his colleague Amos Tversky (1974) challenged that notion by documenting normal peoples' systematic errors in thinking and traced these errors to "the design of the machinery of cognition rather than to the corruption of thought by emotion (Kahneman, 2011, pg. 8)." ...
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Background: Mindfulness, giving our full attention to what we are doing in the present moment, is perhaps best understood as training for the brain. When we are mindful, we are actively engaged with our thoughts, feelings, and sensations. Purpose: The purpose of this article is to introduce the concept of “mindful evaluation” as a way to cultivate our reflexivity and self-awareness to improve our evaluation practice. Mindful evaluation is an invitation to be more intentional and reflexive about our ontological, epistemological, and methodological assumptions in general as well as for each evaluation we undertake. Setting: Mindfulness has been gaining popularity both with the general public and a variety of professional disciplines thanks in large part to the growing body of research on its efficacy. As disciplines such as healthcare, economics, and education are incorporating the benefits of mindfulness in their work, we explore how we too might use the principles of mindfulness in evaluation and evaluation practice. Intervention: This article did not require an intervention. Research Design: Not applicable Data Collection and Analysis: Not applicable Findings: We present simple steps for incorporating the principles of mindfulness to how we approach evaluation.
... A C C E P T E D countermeasure to limit potential anchoring and confirmation bias [19]. After the participants had completed both instruments, they were instructed to use the prepaid return envelope to post these back to the researcher. ...
Article
Objectives The assessment of the spatial characteristics of pain, such as location and extent, is essential in the clinical evaluation of pain syndromes, especially when managing patient’s with chronic musculoskeletal pain. This study evaluated the convergent validity of pain drawings (PDs) and anatomical checklists (ACLs) in measuring pain location (PL) and pain extent (PE) in individuals with chronic musculoskeletal pain. Methods Twenty volunteers participated, each completing a PD and an ACL in a randomized order following standardized training. PDs were digitized and analyzed using a custom algorithm on a web platform. PL was categorized across 45 anatomical areas. PE was assessed using a region-weighted approach by means of the Margolis rating scale and a pixel-based method. Statistical analyses included Spearman’s rho and the Jaccard Index to compare the obtained PD metrics. Results A strong correlation was found between a PDs and ACLs for PE (Spearman’s rho=0.823), suggesting similar capabilities in quantifying the spatial distribution of pain. However, a significant discrepancy in PL measurements, with a mean Jaccard Index of 0.54, indicated poor agreement between methods. Discussion These results highlight the non-interchangeability of these instruments for PL identification and underscore the importance of each tool’s unique advantages and limitations. The study also highlighted the potential benefits of incorporating innovative pain metrics into current health questionnaires to enhance their clinimetric properties. These findings advocate for continued research with larger and more diverse patient cohorts to further validate PDs and ACLs and to explore additional psychometric properties for pain assessment.
... • Use of the availability heuristic (Blount and Larrick, 2000). (Tversky (1982) suggests that the probability of some type of event is in part judged based on the ability of the person to recall events of that type from memory, thus suggesting that factors like recency may incorrectly influence judgments of probability.) • Attribution errors. ...
... Incorporating foundational psychological research, the seminal work of Tversky et al. (1982) on heuristics and biases provides a strong theoretical underpinning for understanding how cognitive biases influence decision-making. Their studies on anchoring, availability, and representativeness heuristics laid the groundwork for contemporary discussions on bias detection in AI. ...
Preprint
Cognitive biases, systematic deviations from rationality in judgment, pose significant challenges in generating objective content. This paper introduces a novel approach for real-time cognitive bias detection in user-generated text using large language models (LLMs) and advanced prompt engineering techniques. The proposed system analyzes textual data to identify common cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, circular reasoning, and hidden assumption. By designing tailored prompts, the system effectively leverages LLMs' capabilities to both recognize and mitigate these biases, improving the quality of human-generated content (e.g., news, media, reports). Experimental results demonstrate the high accuracy of our approach in identifying cognitive biases, offering a valuable tool for enhancing content objectivity and reducing the risks of biased decision-making.
... From an anchoring perspective, once a higher regular price on the left triggers the "price implies quality" heuristic, consumers adjust their subsequent willingness to pay and internal reference price upward, effectively reinforcing the influence of the first price seen (Epley and Gilovich, 2010). In other words, the initial perception of quality catalyzes a cascading effect on broader price evaluations, guiding how consumers judge the fairness and overall value of the offer (Kahneman et al., 1982;Xia et al., 2004). ...
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This study examines the impact of display locations of regular and sale prices on reference price estimation, drawing on anchoring and adjustment theory and the left-to-right directionality in reading habits. It focuses on how the spatial positioning of the regular price relative to the discount price affects perceived quality and subsequently shapes reference price judgments. Conducted across both offline and online settings using varied product stimuli, three laboratory studies using comparative price advertisements that presented both prices on the same page consistently demonstrate that placing the regular price to the left of the discount price results in higher reference price estimations. The findings also confirmed that perceived product quality mediates the proposed effect. This research offers new insights into how the spatial placement of pricing information significantly affects consumer perception and decision-making, contributing to consumer psychology.
... Indeed, a focal organisation enjoy (or suffer) the legitimacy (or the illegitimacy) from other organisations with similar characteristics, classes and social categories (Durand and Vergne, 2015;Kostova and Zaheer, 1999;Shi et al., 2022). The spillover effect is caused by bounded rationality, cognitive limitations in information processing, and resource constraints of social actors (Kahneman et al., 1982). Perceiving legitimacy by social actors outside a focal firm is often an exhaustive social cognition process through which they need to comprehensively judge and assess a firm in various aspects discussed above (Choi and Shepherd, 2005). ...
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This study uses the legitimacy theory as the theoretical lens to investigate how and under what circumstances home-country technological legitimacy affects the performance of crowdfunding campaigns in emerging markets. A dataset of 758 technology crowdfunding campaigns from Kickstarter was analysed. Our findings reveal that higher home-country technological legitimacy (measured by the Global Innovation Index) affects crowd-funding performance (measured by the ratio of funds raised to the pledged goal). We also find that positive psychological capital language (optimism, insistence, and tenacity) plays a crucial moderating role in strengthening this relationship. This study extends the legitimacy theory by demonstrating that country-level technological legitimacy is an external signal that shapes backer perceptions and funding decisions. Our results highlight the importance of campaign narratives in overcoming institutional voids and enhancing entrepre-neurial success in global crowdfunding initiatives. These insights offer practical implications for entrepreneurs, policymakers, and investors seeking to navigate the complex dynamics of crowdfunding in emerging economies.
... A mesma informação pode ser usada para construir perspectivas de duas ideias opostas que apelam para a subjetividade da interpretação individual desencadeando diferentes percepções e consequentes comportamentos ao julgar reivindicações, como indicado em [7][8][9]. Ao omitir o contexto original em que as imagens foram capturadas e ao omitir ou modificar detalhes sobre a pesquisa, o conteúdo tem o potencial de enganar o leitor, distorcendo ou ignorando o significado pretendido e o objetivo das imagens e das pesquisas. Esse tipo de ação coloca em xeque o potencial de democratização da mídia social, promovendo comportamentos de ceticismo e ultraje. ...
Research
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Este ensaio filosófico entrelaça as perspectivas de Feenberg e Heidegger com as de Engenharia de Software para argumentar a necessidade de uma visão transdisciplinar no desenvolvimento socialmente responsável de artefatos tecnológicos que promovem a comunicação social dentro das mídias sociais digitais. Apesar de argumentos que se contrapões, os dois pensadores investigam as ideias de técnica e tecnologia como fenômenos sociais com potencial transformador. Nesse sentido, argumentarei que os impactos negativos de um artefato tecnológico são inversamente proporcionais ao conhecimento "do mundo do usuário alvo" pelos projetistas. Conhecimento que reflete as variações de significado dos mesmos valores sociais entre usuário e projetista e que são considerados de modo transparente, subjetivo e inseparável em seus projetos. De uma maneira discuto a perspectiva de responsabilidade dos projetistas quanto ao uso, empregado pelos usuários, das mídias sociais como artefatos tecnológicos projetados. É possível lidar com as diferentes formas com que um usuário se apropria desses artefatos tecnológicos? Ao discutir esta questão, o ensaio reforça as perspectivas de Feenberg para desenvolvimento de uma "consciência de responsabilidade" nos projetos de artefatos tecnológicos de comunicação. Introdução A computação móvel, as mídias sociais e os aplicativos para comunicação conectaram pessoas e disponibilizaram todo tipo de informações como nunca antes. Ao impulsionar o acesso a informações e interações sociais, aplicativos como o Facebook e o WhatsApp tornaram-se fundamentais para promover a alfabetização e a educação digitais, inclusive em países onde as desigualdades sociais e econômicas ainda são proeminentes. No entanto, se, por um lado, as mídias sociais e os aplicativos (artefatos tecnológicos) contribuíram para democratizar o acesso à tecnologia da informação e comunicação (TIC), por outro, estão favorecendo a desinformação, catalisando mudanças sociais e culturais, às vezes com consequências difíceis e indesejáveis. Caracterizo desinformação como informação intencionalmente criada para desencadear, desencaminhar ou gerar erros de decisão, manipular os sistemas de crenças dos indivíduos e enganar os seres humanos [1]. A desinformação on-line é usada para manipulações cognitivas dos usuários, em esquemas de engenharia social e de exploração de fatores humanos pra golpes no ambiente virtual, para persuadir os indivíduos a cair em ataques direcionados como a instalação de vírus, e na criação e disseminação de "falsas notícias" e engodos [2]. Alguns eventos atuais demonstram as dimensões sinistras dos impactos reais da disseminação da desinformação em ambientes virtuais. Por exemplo, o movimento anti-vacinas que, propagando desinformações em mídias sociais online, reduziu os resultados dos programas de
... The first stream of research largely comprises psychological explanations identifying a pattern of overreaction thinking, which systematically deviates from concepts of rational choice. This research mainly centers on how systematic cognitive biases in human decision-making (Kahneman 2011;Kahneman et al. 1982) inform anomalies in individual and collective behavior (Tversky & Kahneman 1974;Lichtenstein et al. 1978;Slovic 2007;Kahneman & Tversky 1973;Sunstein 2002;Sunstein & Zeckhauser 2010;Lichtenstein et al. 1982;Moore & Healy 2008;Patt & Zeckhauser 2000;Jones & Baumgartner 2005;Baumgartner et al. 2009). Its conceptual structure consists of micro-foundations (e.g., bounded rationality)-key elements of human cognitive processes-which can thereafter be explicitly linked to collective activities in governments and other societal level systems. ...
... Relatedly, the intentional component in disproportionate policy was arguably the most critical innovation in this theorizing process. Initially, I steered the discussion away from unintentional psychological explanations, such as overconfidence (Tversky & Kahneman 1974;Kahneman 2011;Kahneman et al. 1982), and institutional explanations, such as inertia (Peters et al. 2017). Additionally, I diverged from non-intentional explanations, which focus on policies that political executives never meant to implement but are executed nonetheless-whether knowingly or unknowingly (Rhodes 2000;Hood & Peters 2004;Margetts et al. 2010). ...
... Allí aparecen cuestiones como las Heurísticas y Experiencia, los tomadores de decisiones utilizan atajos mentales, o heurísticas, basados en experiencias previas para tomar decisiones rápidas en contextos inciertos. Sin embargo, estas heurísticas a veces introducen sesgos, como el exceso de confianza o el anclaje 101 . La búsqueda del equilibrio entre "datos e intuición". ...
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El Futuro de la Toma de Decisiones sigue planteando enormes desafíos. Algunas tendencias y desafíos que moldearán el panorama de la toma de decisiones siguen estado imprecisamente definidas unas se irán esclareciendo y otras nuevas surgirán, aunque por supuesto que queda lo impactarán los avances de las Inteligencia Artificial y otras innovaciones tecnológicas. Por más avances que se han logrado los desafíos de equilibrar el riesgo y la oportunidad, integrar perspectivas diversas y anticiparse a lo desconocido, forma parte de una asignatura pendiente. En el futuro, la capacidad de adaptar principios y procesos a nuevas realidades será el rasgo definitorio de los tomadores de decisiones efectivos. Lo que muestra este trabajo de recopilación de que la toma de decisiones en un mundo cambiante que requiere adaptabilidad, innovación y conciencia ética. La integración de enfoques basados en datos, los instintos y la intuición humana permite adoptar decisiones robustas y sensibles al contexto, equilibrando las capacidades tecnológicas con los valores humanos. Mediante clases interactivas, estudios de caso y actividades grupales, la metodología propuesta garantiza una comprensión integral del panorama en evolución de la toma de decisiones. Esa recopilación de aportes relacionados con la toma de decisiones explora desde aspectos conceptuales a aspectos instrumentales de la toma de decisiones. Hemos acudido a todas las fuentes de referencia a nuestra disposición pero hemos usado como orientación principal de las consultas realizadas a sistemas de Inteligencia Artificial, que hemos complementado con aportes de nuestros trabajos previos. Se trata de un nuevo estudio exploratorio, que complementa y expande lo que ya hemos estudiado.
... While the literature on social evaluations commonly assumes that evaluators draw on one particular judgment input (Bitektine, 2011;Tost, 2011), in practice evaluators typically utilize a diverse array of cognitively available judgment inputs to address their primary and secondary functional questions about the organization and enhance judgment robustness. However, the reliance on these different types of inputs can vary significantly depending on the context, as not all inputs may be available or they may vary in cognitive salience or recency (Kahneman, Slovic & Tversky, 1982). For instance, first-hand judgment inputs might be lacking if the evaluator has no personal experience or access to the organization, or lacks motivation to seek information. ...
... Supposition is a bridge between these realms, creating a conceptual space where potentialities and possibilities converge. A review of existing literature underscores the multifaceted nature of supposition: Kahneman & Tversky, (1982) explore how suppositional reasoning aids in assessing probabilities, though often influenced by cognitive biases. Roese & Olson, (1995) highlight counterfactual thinking, a process akin to supposition, which involves imagining alternative outcomes to past events and its adaptive value for learning and decision-making. ...
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This article introduces Homo Putans, the “supposing human,” as a novel philosophical framework for understanding human existence. Supposing, distinct from mere thinking or imagination, involves hesitation, doubt, and a creative engagement with possibilities. It is characterized by its ability to confront ambiguity and construct meaning in the face of uncertainty. The proposed concept, “supposing,” is examined as both a cognitive and philosophical act that bridges the gap between uncertainty and understanding. Drawing on historical and contemporary philosophical traditions, including Hans Vaihinger’s Philosophy of As If and phenomenological insights from Husserl and Brentano, the study situates supposing as a significant process in human cognition and meaning-making. While rooted in philosophical inquiry, the article also considers conceptual alignments with cognitive science to explore how supposing shapes perception and decision-making. By thriving in ambiguity, supposing is framed as an act of constructing potential realities and engaging with the unknown.
... Potencialmente o mais famoso deles foi liderado por Amos Tversky e Daniel Kahneman, cujo trabalho conferiu a este o único prêmio Nobel já recebido por um(a) psicólogo(a). Seu programa de pesquisa, intitulado "Heurísticas e Vieses", parte da noção que os seres humanos falham em tomar decisões racionais devido às suas heurísticas e vieses (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). Kahneman e Frederick (2002) desenvolveram uma teoria de processamento duplo na tentativa de explicar como se dá o raciocínio humano em relação às heurísticas, vieses e o raciocínio normativo esperado. ...
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Lino, D., & Roazzi, A. (2025). Tomada de Decisão Investigativa e a Entrevista com Suspeitos. In P. I. C. Gomide, & A. G. C. Calixto (Eds.), Direito e Psicologia Forense: Tomada de Decisão baseada no Direito e na Psicologia (pp. 94-115). Curitiba: Presidência do TJPR. ISBN: 978-65-982510-8-6 Retrieved from: https://tinyurl.com/pakf8sm9 // Resumo: No curso de uma investigação, os investigadores devem tomar diversas decisões, como qual linha investigativa ter prioridade, quais pessoas entrevistar, e quando indiciar um suspeito. Esse processo decisório é central para a celeridade e sucesso da investigação. Entretanto, existem pouquíssimos trabalhos empíricos no Brasil que estudaram esse fenômeno e como ele pode influenciar no resultado investigativo. Sabe-se também, através de casos reais e estudos empíricos, que falhas na tomada de decisão investigativa levam investigadores a realizarem interrogatórios de forma inadequada e prejudicial, podendo resultar em erros de justiça como a prisão de inocentes. O presente capítulo se dedica a apresentar o que é a tomada de decisão investigativa, quais são suas potenciais fontes de falha, com atenção especial ao viés de confirmação, como isto pode influenciar no interrogatório de suspeitos, assim como quais as soluções e saídas para evitar erros de justiças advindos de falhas nesse processo cognitivo dos investigadores. Palavras-chave: Entrevista investigativa; Mentalidade investigativa; Viés de confirmação; Visão de túnel.
... Daniel Kahneman's work around cognitive biases is a good example to elucidate the modeling differences between CPT and QPT. His experiments and follow-on studies have repeatedly demonstrated the phenomenon of the anchoring effects of information [56,57]. Anchoring effects are introduced by decision makers taking into account an informational cue that can steer judgment towards an appropriate signal [58]. ...
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Artificial intelligence is set to incorporate additional decision space that has traditionally been the purview of humans. However, AI systems that support decision making also entail the rationalization of AI outputs by humans. Yet, incongruencies between AI and human rationalization processes may introduce uncertainties in human decision making, which require new conceptualizations to improve the predictability of these interactions. The application of quantum probability theory (QPT) to human cognition is on the ascent and warrants potential consideration to human–AI decision making to improve these outcomes. This perspective paper explores how QPT may be applied to human–AI interactions and contributes by integrating these concepts into human-in-the-loop decision making. To capture this and offer a more comprehensive conceptualization, we use human-in-the-loop constructs to explicate how recent applications of QPT can ameliorate the models of interaction by providing a novel way to capture these behaviors. Followed by a summary of the challenges posed by human-in-the-loop systems, we discuss newer theories that advance models of the cognitive system by using quantum probability formalisms. We conclude by outlining areas of promising future research in human–AI decision making in which the proposed methods may apply.
... Indeed, there is a notable asymmetry in the information available, with much more data on past and present events than on future ones. As a result, voters tend to prioritize current issues over future concerns when communicating with policy-makers [109]. The second is the fragility of long-term political commitments. ...
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Background Problems such as climate change, environmental pollution, nuclear disposal and unsustainable production and consumption share a common feature: they pose long-term challenges because of their complex nature, potentially severe consequences, and the demanding problem-solving paths. These challenges may have long-lasting impacts on both present and future generations and, therefore, require to be addressed through a long-term governance perspective, i.e., coherent and consistent policy-making across sectors, institutions, and temporal scales. Dealing with these challenges is a core task of policy-making in modern societies, which requires problem-solving skills and capabilities. In this context, we identify long-term governance traces in the literature, illustrate the case of energy transition towards renewable energy systems as a long-term governance case, and elaborate on the scope and definition of long-term governance and its research. Main text We elaborate an analytical framework for long-term governance (LTG), based on five building blocks: the ‘environment’, which details the policy-making arena; the ‘policy issues’, which elaborates on the problems to be dealt with by LTG; the ‘key challenges and driving force’, revealing LTG mechanisms; the ‘key strategies’, in which promising approaches for LTG are identified; and the ‘policy cycle’, where governance impacts on different policy phases are discussed. In essence, we understand long-term governance at its core as a reflexive policy-making process to address significant enduring and persistent problems within a strategy-based decision-making arena to best prepare for, navigate through, and experiment with a changing environment. Conclusions The framework does not describe specific processes or individual cases in detail. Instead, it should be understood as an illustration of long-term governance characteristics at a more general level. Such a framework may help to structure the field of long-term policy-making, guide future research on conceptual, comparative, and empirical in-depth studies, and may provide orientation and action knowledge for making our governance system sustainable. Stimulating and broadening research on long-term issues seems indispensable, given the existence of several ‘grand challenges’ that require successful long-term governance.
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This research paper aims to understand the factors influencing consumers' adoption of sustainable fashion like upcycled products using the Behavioural Reasoning Theory (BRT). The BRT was used to investigate the relationship between the value of openness to change, Attitude, and reasons for and against to buy upcycled fashion products. A total of 323 completed questionnaires were collected, and a response rate of 63.3% was recorded. The results of the CFA showed that the proposed measurement model appears to be satisfactory and provides an excellent fit. The structural equation modelling (SEM) was utilised in the research in order to prove the proposed hypothesis. The findings of this study that environment concern, pride and knowledge about sustainable option can positively contribute to the fashion industry's sustainability goals. Study will also assist in recognizing the reasons against upcycle buying in identify barriers to purchase, such as cost, accessibility, or lack of awareness.
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ABSTRACT This paper introduces a framework for football player valuations, integrating Damodaran's valuation typologies and providing a decision framework for selecting the typology. Purpose/Rationale It aims to refine Damodaran's valuation typologies of intrinsic, relative, real options and probabilistic methods to football valuations, highlighting current limitations of using proxies and addressing the conflation between price and value. Design/Approach/Methodology The paper employs a conceptual analysis of a literature review, aiming to determine valuation typologies in the literature and their limitations, aligning the literature to the established typologies of Damodaran and provides a framework for using different valuation types. Findings While intrinsic valuations are robust in theory, their practical application faces challenges. Relative valuations are more pragmatic and contingent on standardised metrics. Real options and probabilistic approaches present potential for future research. Practical Implications The framework guides researchers and practitioners when to apply different valuation typologies within sport finance, offering insights for conducting comprehensive player valuations. Research Contribution This paper unifies existing valuation methods into a cohesive framework, filling methodological gaps and suggesting areas for further research in football player valuations. Originality/Value The paper's originality lies in integrating Damodaran's approaches with sports finance, offering valuable insights for both academic research and practical applications.
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Despite the ecological and socio‐economic benefits of nature‐based solutions (NbS), the application of ecological principles to the design of seawalls (termed ‘seawall eco‐engineering’) to mitigate their impacts remains low. We investigated stakeholder perspectives of, support for and willingness to pay (WTP) for seawall eco‐engineering in one of the most diverse and urbanised harbours in the world, Sydney Harbour, in Australia. Using a series of workshops and surveys targeting the general public, Local Government, built environment and natural environment professionals, we identified and ranked perceived risks and benefits of eco‐engineering seawalls, the most common infrastructure in the Harbour. Additionally, WTP for seawall eco‐engineering was investigated using an existing, large‐scale eco‐engineering project. Overall, workshop participants rated benefits of seawall eco‐engineering to be almost double the risks. The key perceived benefits were increased habitat/biodiversity, improved water quality and enhanced environmental stewardship/awareness. Key perceived risks were potential damage to infrastructure and use of greenwashing to facilitate new development. Across all stakeholder groups, participants were very supportive of statements regarding the benefits of eco‐engineered seawalls and the need for eco‐engineering principles to be included in the design of new seawalls. Despite strong support for seawall eco‐engineering, WTP was estimated at one third of the actual cost and was, in part, attributable to a lack of a shared evidence base from successful projects, and unclear guidance and policy around implementation. Synthesis and applications: Our results showed that establishing rigorous monitoring and evaluation programs that facilitate cost–benefit analyses are critical to enhancing WTP for and uptake of eco‐engineering projects. Furthermore, more cost‐effective technologies and shared funding models may overcome existing financial impediments. We also found integrative legislation may be key to increased implementation of such NbS, given that existing policies were viewed as unsupportive. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.
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In the study by Chen et al. (2023) [01], the large language model GPT demonstrated economic rationality comparable to or exceeding the average human level in tasks such as budget allocation and risk preference. Building on this finding, this paper further incorporates specialized agents, such as biotechnology experts and economists, for a horizontal comparison to explore whether specialization can enhance or maintain economic rationality equivalent to that of GPT in similar decision-making scenarios. The results indicate that when agents invest more effort in specialized fields, their decision-making behavior is more prone to 'rationality shift,' specifically manifested as increased violations of GARP (Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference), decreased CCEI (Critical Cost Efficiency Index), and more significant decision deviations under high-risk conditions. In contrast, GPT and more generalized basic agents maintain a more stable and consistent level of rationality across multiple tasks. This study reveals the inherent conflict between specialization and economic rationality, providing new insights for constructing AI decision-making systems that balance specialization and generalization across various scenarios.
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This essential reference work explores the role of finance in delivering sustainability within and outside the European Union. With sustainability affecting core elements of company, banking and capital markets law, this handbook investigates the latest regulatory strategies for protecting the environment, delivering a fairer society and improving governance. Each chapter is written by a leading scholar who provides a solid theoretical approach to the topic while focussing on recent developments. Looking beyond the European Union, the book also covers relevant developments in the United States, the United Kingdom and other major jurisdictions. Thorough and comprehensive, this volume is a crucial resource for scholars, policymakers and practitioners who aim for a greener world, a more equitable society and better-managed corporations.
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Objective This study explored if the patient-experience and the affect heuristic influenced improvements in painful symptoms, in response to open label placebo injections in patients with knee OA. It furthermore explored if other cognitive biases or heuristics were involved in the response to open-label placebo. Method A mixed method study in a pre-specified knee OA cohort. The influence of patient-experience, and the affect heuristic, on change in painful symptoms in response to an open-label placebo injection, were assessed using a questionnaire and multivariate linear regression. The group concept mapping method was used to characterise the expectations and hopes regarding the effect of an open-label placebo injection in non-responders and responders, defined as the lower- and upper quartile of the ΔVAS pain scores. Results 103 participants received the questionnaire, and 60 finalised questionnaires were included in the analysis showing that the reduction in pain was associated with the patient-experience and that the affect heuristic acted as an effect modifier. Three workshops were held for non-responders (n = 13) and responders (n = 15) each generating respectively 113 and 119 statements. It was found that the two groups reported different expectations and hopes for the open label placebo injections. Conclusions The patient-experience influenced the response to an open label placebo injection in patients with knee OA, and this influence was moderated by the strength of the affect heuristic. Furthermore, non-responders and responders reported different hopes and expectation towards the open label placebo injection indicating the presence of the optimism bias in the responder group.
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Large group collaborative teaching approaches are rapidly gaining popularity in undergraduate medical education. The case-based collaborative Learning (CBCL) pedagogy was instituted for pre-clerkship teaching at Harvard Medical School in 2015 with subsequent implementation at other medical schools. CBCL emphasizes inductive reasoning, integrates basic and clinical sciences, stimulates curiosity, and fosters teamwork. Given the ongoing educational evolution, guidance on designing and facilitating collaborative learning sessions, such as CBCL may benefit faculty in their instructional design efforts. This perspective article describes strategies to create effective collaborative sessions using CBCL as an example. We reviewed the literature and summarized ten years of experience in CBCL teaching through the lens of contemporary theories of teaching and learning. The recommendations are organized into three main domains: Instructional Design, Facilitation, and Professional Transformation, each aligned with the theoretical principles of CBCL. The recommendations provide a conceptual model to assist faculty in designing engaging and effective class materials and support students’ professional transformation during collaborative learning sessions.
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