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Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies

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... One of the consequences of sea-level rise (SLR), induced by the increasing global average temperature, is the added risk of coastal flooding in low-lying coastal areas [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report stated that global mean sea-level (GMSL) rose by an average of 0.19 m in the last century (1901 to 2010) and estimates an increase up to 0.98 m by 2100. ...
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The increased exposure to coastal flooding in low-lying coastal areas is one of the consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) induced by climate changes. The coastal zone of Guinea-Bissau contains significant areas of low elevation and is home to most of the population and economic activity, making it already vulnerable to coastal flooding, especially during spring tides and storm surges (SS). Coastal flooding will tend to intensify with the expected SLR in the coming decades. This study aimed at quantifying and mapping the area exposed to the coastal flooding hazard using SLR scenarios by the years 2041, 2083, and 2100. The study analyzes and discusses the application of a the simple “bathtub” model coupled with a high-precision global digital elevation models (TanDEM-X DEM) to areas where no other data are available. Therefore, three coastal hazards hot-spots of Guinea-Bissau: Bissau, Bubaque, and Suzana, were used as case study. At each site, the area potentially exposed to coastal flooding was evaluated in a geographic information systems (GIS) environment, by estimating the Total Water Levels for each SLR scenario. For all areas, land exposed to coastal flooding hazard increases significantly and progressively with increasing SLR scenarios. Bissau and Suzana, where housing, infrastructure, and agricultural land are low-lying, presented the greatest flood exposure, while Bubaque, where housing and infrastructure are located in relatively high-lying land and rain-fed agriculture is practiced, present lesser flood exposure. The methodology presented is simple to use but powerful in identifying potentially vulnerable places to coastal flooding hazard, and its results can aid low developed countries to assess their exposure to coastal risks, thus supporting risk awareness and mitigation measures.
... To reverse land degradation, Benin has committed itself to restoring at least 50% (1.25 million ha) of land degraded during the 2000-2010 reference period, to limit the loss of non-degraded land to 5% (398,200 ha), and to reach a 12% (1,364,604 ha) net improvement of vegetation cover by 2030 (Feenstra et al., 1998; Global Mechanism of the UNCCD, 2018). To achieve these ambitious objectives, specific targets have been formulated. ...
Technical Report
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Land degradation neutrality (LDN) is increasingly recognized as an effective mechanism to address land degradation and sustain ecosystems. Although this mechanism could accelerate the achievement of SDGs, we should approach with caution many of the policy measures proposed within countries’ LDN target-setting programmes to avoid violating rights to land and resources. Analysing the case study of a participatory forest management plan (PFMP) to preserve a gazetted forest in Benin, this report reveals how poor implementation of well-designed policy mechanisms could inadvertently produces outcomes that run contrary to expectations. The report stressed that the acceptance and widespread implementation of LDN, especially in those countries suffering most from land degradation impacts, will depend on efforts to ensure social justice by securing communities’ legitimate rights to forest land and resources. This can only be achieved if responsible land governance structures are established, and smallholder farmers supported to actively participate in forest and resource conservation. The report summarized the findings of a collaborative research project by TMG Research and APIC NGO within the framework of Global Soil Week. It benefited from technical support and funding of by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).
... Cette augmentation peut paraître peu impressionnante, mais elle cache des disparités régionales importantes, si certaines zones ont subi peu de réchauffement, d'autres ont déjà enregistré des augmentations de plus de 2°C (Brulebois, 2016). Les pays en voie de développement sont plus vulnérables au changement climatique que les pays développés à cause de la prédominance de l'agriculture à faible capital, des activités économiques affectées par le climat et de leurs climats de base relativement chauds (Smith & Tol, 1998). Globalement, au cours de ces dernières années, le début et la fin des saisons pluvieuses sont devenus de moins en moins prévisibles pour les paysans, ce qui rend aléatoire la planification agricole. ...
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To ensure the rational use of forest resources while limiting the impacts on climate change, it is important to acquire information on the dynamics of vegetation. Thus, the objective of this study was to analyze the impact of the dynamics of the plant cover on climate change, by evaluating the interannual variability of the plant cover between 1990 and 2020, as well as the factors underlying this variability by taking into account the perception of the inhabitants of the watershed
... Para confrontar estas situaciones proponen la evaluación del riesgo y un manejo integral de la zona costera, con un enfoque regional para lograr una mayor efectividad. C AMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y VULNERABILIDAD COSTERA 6 A raíz de esas y otras propuestas relativas a la evaluación de la vulnerabilidad costera, Feenstra et al. (1998) son algunos de los primeros autores en generar un compendio de métodos para la evaluación del impacto del CC y proponer diversas estrategias de adaptación, incluyendo un apartado específico para la zona costera en el que se plantean diversos escenarios de manejo (Klein y Nicholls 1998). Estos últimos autores categorizan los posibles impactos como pérdida directa de valores económicos, ecológicos, culturales y de subsistencia. ...
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Las evidencias respecto a los efectos del cambio climático, manifestados como un incremento en la vulnerabilidad social y ambiental, que a su vez se interpreta como el nivel de incapacidad de los sistemas socio-ecológicos para afrontar efectos adversos, conducen necesariamente a un esquema de análisis multidisciplinario de los factores que potencian dicha susceptibilidad. En principio se asume que se cuenta con la capacidad para limitar el cambio climático y construir un futuro sostenible, pero que ello requiere de un conocimiento detallado de los determinantes del cambio y del fortalecimiento de las capacidades institucionales, que en conjunto permitan afrontarlo. Dado que este cambio se manifiesta de manera inmediata como variación en la frecuencia e intensidad de los fenómenos meteorológicos, se busca aquí generar una visión amplia, sobre los principales elementos que deben incorporarse en el análisis, así como las escalas espaciales a las que debe realizarse, para generar elementos útiles de jerarquización, toma de decisiones y posible resolución de los problemas centrales, bajo un adecuado esquema de gobernanza.
... There are various methods available to project the impact of climate change and the increasing concentration of atmospheric CO 2 on forest growth. These range from simple experiments and statistical analyses based on historical or regional analogues of temporal and spatial variation in increment to more datademanding biophysical and integrated models (Scholes et al., 1998). Inventorybased methods are commonly applied to assess the forest carbon budget on a national to continental scale. ...
Chapter
This book contains 28 chapters grouped into six sections providing information on forests interact with the other components of the physical and natural world with the human society, and how we could manage forests globally to make the most of their contribution to mitigation of climate change along with the established objective of sustainable management to maximize the full range of economic and non-market benefits which forests provide. Topics covered include: introduction on the interaction between forests and climate change; climate change, forestry and science-policy interface; forestry options for contributing to climate change mitigation; options for adaptation due to impacts of climate change on forests; current and future policy of national and international frameworks; and implications for future forestry and related environmental and development policy.
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High computational requirement of physically based fully distributed hydrological models (PDHM) constrains the use of all available general circulation models (GCMs) to assess climate change impacts. Here, an approach of ensembling GCMs using clustering based on future climatological variables was compared with model democracy while using a PDHM, SHETRAN, forced with 6GCMs. The methodology is applied to hydrologic projections in Netravathi River basin in present to near (2021–2050) and far (2071-2100) future. The results demonstrate that some GCMs project increase (50%, 30%) while others show decrease (10%, 11%) in the far future relative to historic period (1980-2005) for streamflow and sediment load, respectively. The spread in the projection of climatological and hydrological variables from ensembled GCMs was retained as in model democracy whereas actual evapotranspiration showed overestimation relative to individual GCMs in the far future due to limitations of the clustering approach. Hence, it is suggested to employ individual GCMs for hydrological impact studies.
Technical Report
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La neutralité en matière de dégradation des terres (NDT) est de plus en plus reconnue comme un mécanisme efficace pour lutter contre la dégradation des terres et préserver les écosystèmes. Bien que ce mécanisme puisse accélérer la réalisation des ODD, il convient d’aborder avec prudence bon nombre des mesures politiques proposées dans le cadre des programmes de définition des cibles nationales de la NDT, afin de réduire les risques de violation des droits légitimes des communautés à terre et aux ressources forestières. En analysant l’étude de cas d’un plan d’aménagement participatif (PAPF) d’une forêt classée au Bénin, le présent rapport révèle comment une mise en œuvre erronée de mécanismes politiques, pourtant bien conçus, peut produire par inadvertance des résultats contraires aux attentes. Le rapport souligne le fait que l’acceptation et la mise en œuvre généralisée de la NDT, en particulier dans les pays qui souffrent le plus des impacts de la dégradation des terres, dépendront des efforts déployés pour assurer la justice sociale en garantissant les droits légitimes des communautés à la terres et aux ressources forestières. Cet objectif ne peut être atteint que si des structures de gouvernance foncière responsables sont établies et si les petits exploitants agricoles sont soutenus pour participer activement à la conservation des forêts et autres ressources naturelles. Le rapport résume les conclusions d’un projet de recherche collaboratif mené par TMG Research et l’ONG APIC dans le cadre de la Global Soil Week. Il a bénéficié du soutien technique et du financement de la Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) et du ministère fédéral allemand de la coopération économique et du développement (BMZ).
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Climate change and agriculture production in South Kivu, DR Congo The aim of this study was to analyze the link between climate change and agriculture production in South Kivu from 2010 to 2015. The study used a secondary database from the Provincial Inspectorate of Agriculture, Fisheries and Livestock of South Kivu and from Lwiro Research Center. A simple linear regression using the least square method was applied to the data. The analysis and data processing were made by SPSS 20 software. Data analysis reveals that climate change (expressed by temperature and maximum precipitation) has significant negative impacts on agricultural production in South Kivu under the studied period. Political authorities and national or international institutions and organizations in charge of agriculture, nature conservation and ecosystem management should take appropriate steps to prevent climate change and reduce its impact on agricultural production with the aim of ensuring food security and boost the economy of South Kivu.
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Climate change and agriculture production in South Kivu, DR Congo The aim of this study was to analyze the link between climate change and agriculture production in South Kivu from 2010 to 2015. The study used a secondary database from the Provincial Inspectorate of Agriculture, Fisheries and Livestock of South Kivu and from Lwiro Research Center. A simple linear regression using the least square method was applied to the data. The analysis and data processing were made by SPSS 20 software. Data analysis reveals that climate change (expressed by temperature and maximum precipitation) has significant negative impacts on agricultural production in South Kivu under the studied period. Political authorities and national or international institutions and organizations in charge of agriculture, nature conservation and ecosystem management should take appropriate steps to prevent climate change and reduce its impact on agricultural production with the aim of ensuring food security and boost the economy of South Kivu.
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Climate variability and change is one of the greatest threats facing humanity, with far-reaching and devastating impacts on people, ecosystem services, natural resource-base and the natural environment as a whole. This paper aims to evaluate the impact of rainfall variability on agricultural production in Jakiri Sub-Division of the Northwest Region of Cameroon. Previous studies on the impact of climate on agriculture focused on stakeholder signatures to climate change adaptation to the agrarian sector of the Bui Plateau, which revealed that despite the glaring consequences of climate, the Jakiri Council only allocates only 1% of its annual budget for climate action. Data sources for this study included the administration of 211 questionnaires to cover the three agro-ecological zones of Jakiri Sub-Division, rainfall data collected from UNVDA Ndop (lowland zone), National Meteorological Service (mid-altitude zone) and the Oku Wildlife Sanctuary (highland zone). The Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) was used in analysing rainfall data. Results revealed that rainfall is reducing as depicted by the increasing trends in RAI. Farmers also perceived that food crop production has been decreasing. Despite these perceptions, some crops like cassava that is drought tolerant have been increasing. Again, rice production at the Wahsi-Ber Plain has been increasing. This calls for the development and production of more drought-tolerant food crops to ensure sustainable rural livelihoods.
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Equilibrium simulations using the best-available general circulation models to estimate the sensitivity of the climate to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are in broad general agreement that the global annual average surface air temperature would increase 2.5 to 4.5 K. However, at finer spatial scales, the range of changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by different computer models is much broader. Many shortcomings are also apparent in the model simulations of the present climate, indicating that further model improvements are needed to achieve reliable regional and seasonal projections of the future climatic conditions.
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At Finca La Selva, Costa Rica, the long-tailed hermit Phaethornis superciliosus has a long breeding season (December or January through August or September) during which flowers are abundant, followed by a severe but predictable season of flower scarcity in late October-November, during which most of the annual mortality normally occurs. In 1973, the third of a 4-yr population study of marked lek males, an unusual drought caused a severe flower shortage at the height of the breeding season. During the latter part of the breeding season lek activity of males was reduced, successful breeding by females was drastically curtailed, and masses of both sexes dropped to levels lower than those of the lean season. Interrupted molt, an indicator of energy stress normally seen only in a minority of breeding females, was observed in 25% of adult males, and 50% of females, in 1973. Survivorship of lek males through the breeding season dropped from 90% in normal years to c60%, and the total lek population at the start of the 1974 breeding season was 1/3 lower than before the droughts in 1973; the cohort of yearling males was most strongly affected. Recovery of numbers and age structure of the lek male population to pre-1973 levels required 3-4 yr. A simple model of the reproductive output of female P. superciliosus, assuming no sexual differences in survivorship, suggests that a female breeding only in the prime breeding season (roughly February-July, when >80% of fledglings are normally produced) will no more than replace herself in the population; breeding throughout 8-9 mo will permit her to increase her reproductive output by up to 10%, which agrees well with the 3+ yr required by the (male) population to recover from the drought. -from Author
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Wetland management is often confronted with controversy concerning the dependence of living resources on wetland habitats. The competing economic, aesthetic and recreational interests frequently disagree about the importance to living resources of incremental changes or modifications of wetland habitats. In a previous essay (Boesch and Turner, 1984) we discussed evidence of a relationship between the extent of wetland habitats and the yields of fishery species dependent on coastal bays and estuaries and reviewed the role wetlands may play in providing food and protection from predators. However, documentation of the effect on fishery stocks of loss or modification of wetland habitats has been poor. In this paper we assemble and examine accumulating evidence of this relationship, focusing primarily on penaeid shrimp stocks.
Article
A computer-based system (CLIMPACTS) is being developed for New Zealand that combines models and datasets to enable integrated assessments of the effects of climate change on New Zealand's environment. First, it draws on a global model for providing time-dependent projections of global temperature change from 1990 to 2100, as a result of emissions of greenhouse gases. The projections are then used to scale regional patterns of climate change, as derived from GCMs and palaeoclimatic data, to give locally relevant scenarios of changes in primary climate variables for New Zealand on a 0.05⚬ latitude × 0.05⚬ longitude grid. The changes in climate are used to perturb reference (1951-80) climate data. The perturbed climate is then used to drive a number of sectoral impact models relevant to New Zealand. Preliminary development has been with derived variables, namely degreedays (or thermal time) and potential evapotranspiration, which provide a first-order indication of how ecosystems may be affected in New Zealand by climate change. Concurrent developments include customizing of and/or developing models for wheat, temperate and sub-tropical grasslands, fruit crops and natural vegetation, to be integrated within the CLIMPACTS framework.
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Climate change scenarios due to human activity in East Asia and China by 2050 have been estimated by means of a simple global social-economic-climate-impact model combined with seven general circulation models (GCMs). These climate change scenarios show that annual mean temperatures might increase by about 1.4⚬ C, and annual total precipitation might increase by about 4% over the whole of China in comparison with the present climate. The change in precipitation might be much smaller than that of temperature. The potential impacts of human activity-induced climate change on natural vegetation in China were estimated using the vegetation-climate model developed particularly for Chinese vegetation types and different climate change scenarios derived from seven GCMs for 2050. All scenarios suggest a large change in natural vegetation, although details of predicted types vary between the scenarios. These will be a northward shift of vegetation types, with an increase in the areal extent of tropical rain forests and decrease of cold temperate coniferous forest and tundra. China has a high population. During the historic development of several thousand years large areas of forest and grassland have been converted into arable lands; at present agriculture is a very important element of vegetation cover. Consequently, considering all these changes and situations, especially in combination with the probable negative balance between precipitation and evapotraspiration (that is, increase of moisture stress) the possible influences of climate change on Chinese agriculture are assessed briefly in this paper. As a result of the above-described analyses it is extremely difficult to draw general conclusions of the potential implications of climate change for Chinese vegetation because of scientific uncertainties both of investigation of climate change and of its vegetation response.
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We present a framework for integrating GCTE's research programme based on three interacting axes-time, space and applicability. We use the contributed papers from the First GCTE Science Conference to undertake an initial integration of GCTE-type research using this three-axis structure. We assess where progress in being made, where progress is likely to be made in the near future, and where critical gaps exist which require a major effort to eliminate. Elevated CO2 research is one of the most mature areas within GCTE, and provides scope for initial integration along all three axes. Soils, being key to the functioning of all terrestrial ecosystems, provide another excellent opportunity to integrate research along all three axes. A major obstacle to further integration is our lack of understanding of landscape-scale processes, particularly disturbances, and our ability to simulate global change impacts on them. GCTE's Focus 2, Change in Ecosystem Structure, is perhaps best placed to attack many of the gaps that prevent this further integration along space and time scales, and is now entering a rapid development phase; the other Foci also have a major role to play. Integration specifically along the applicability axis is being developed in some areas but requires an enhanced effort to achieve its potential to increase scientific efficiency and effectiveness. The emerging field of global ecology, i.e. ecology at very large space and time scales, is progressing rapidly on the basis of linkages to more traditional ecological research at smaller scales, but requires further interaction with work along the applicability axis.
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Aerial point sampling (APS) is an aerial survey method for quantifying land use patterns specifically among African smallholders where the tiny size of the fields, the incidence of intercropping, and the highly varied cropping calendar, all reduce the effectiveness of more conventional survey methods. In an APS survey, vertical sample 35 mm colour diapositives are taken at intervals along flight lines at an image scale of 1:7000. The colour slides are analysed by downward projection on to a desk-top dot grid at an interpretation scale of 1:700. Crop areas are given by the proportion of dots falling into a crop class, expressed as a per cent which is equivalent to hectares per square kilometre. Densities of objects such as houses are found by dividing the numbers counted by the area analysed on the photograph. Ancillary data, sucha as climate, landform, soils or population density can be easily integrated into the data set since the position of each photograph is known with considerable accuracy. Statistics are rapidly produced in sectorial or cross sectorial form for any set of reporting units.
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It is hypothesized that the principal features of higher plant distributions at continental scales are determined by the macroclimate. Bioclimate data have been computed on a 50 km grid across Europe. Along with published maps of higher plant distributions based upon the same grid, these data have been used to derive climate response surfaces that model the relationship between a species' distribution and the present climate. Eight species representative of a variety of phytogeographic patterns have been investigated. The results support the hypothesis that the European distributions of all eight species are principally determined by macroclimate and illustrate the nature of the climatic constraints upon each species. Simulated future distributions in equilibrium with 2× CO2 climate scenarios derived from two alternative GCMs show that all of the species are likely to experience major shifts in their potential range if such climatic changes take place. Some species may suffer substantial range and population reductions and others may face the threat of extinction. The rate of the forecast climate changes is such that few, if any, species may be able to maintain their ranges in equilibrium with the changing climate. In consequence, the transient impacts upon ecosystems will be varied but often may lead to a period of dominance by opportunist, early-successional species. Our simulations of potential ranges take no account of such factors as photoperiod or the direct effects of CO2, both of which may substantially alter the realized future equilibrium.
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Moose (Alces alces) were common in all parts of mainland Nova Scotia before 1940. Densities then declined, owing to "moose sickness," coincident with increased deer abundance. However, moose populations remain high on the uplands of the northeastern mainland. In an effort to explain this density pattern, populations were studied on representative areas in the highlands and adjoining low-lands. Adjacent units of winter range of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and moose were little different as to geology, soils, vegetation, and winter temperatures. Deer move off the uplands in winter, probably because of greater depth of snow; moose stay on the uplands the year around. This separation of moose and deer occurs when the incidence of "moose sickness" appears highest in other parts of Nova Scotia.