In most developed countries, total fertility reached below-replacement level and stopped changing notably. Contrary to the almost stationary fertility level, the mean age of childbearing (MAC) is increasing markedly, reflecting a more general ‘postponement transition’ that may correspond to fundamental shifts for society (Lee and Goldstein, 2003, Billari, 2005). The postponement of childbearing,
... [Show full abstract] however, includes changes in fertility at all reproductive ages, which are more complicated than the increase of MAC. Using the idea of the Lee-Carter (1992) method that deals with mortality, we show that the changes in the age pattern of fertility can be well described by a single variable, which leads to simple ways of projection. We discuss some application issues using the data from Italy, and describe a condition under which the model is expected to work well for other countries.