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The structure of superstitious action – A further analysis of fresh evidence
Abstract
Wiseman and Watt’s short scales of positive and negative superstitions have attracted attention in the literature. Using a representative survey of the Australian state of Queensland, the six scale items were applied to 1243 respondents. Initial investigation using Cronbach’s alpha showed that one of the scales did not function properly. A factor analysis suggested that a four-item and a two-item scale best fitted the data. A Rasch analysis of all the items confirmed this, and showed that the conventional five-category response format was not appropriate, and that three categories fit the data better. The main conclusion is that the results do not support the Wiseman–Watt theory of three positive and three negative superstitions. It does not seem advisable to use these scales without substantial reformulation and re-testing.
... In the history of philosophical thought, this concept has been explored under various titles and from different perspectives (2). Researchers in the field of personality have focused their attention on theoretical and empirical study and measurement of individuals' irrational beliefs about happiness (3,4). Although a number of studies have been conducted in this area, yet each of them has explored merely one dimension of the subject. ...
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The chapter begins by exploring belief and behaviour, how they are distinguishable and yet interrelated. Examples of both superstitious beliefs and behaviours are proffered, based on them being described as such in the literature. However, whether a belief or behaviour is deemed superstitious will largely depend upon the disciplinary, epistemological and ontological lens of the scholar and their own cultural and social experience. In other words, superstition is a construction. The chapter explores some classifications of superstitions, for example, in terms of whether they are positive or negative, passive or proactive. It also discusses a variety of constructs relevant to, and associated with superstition, such as; popular epistemically unwarranted beliefs (PEUB)/epistemically suspect beliefs (ESB) , Pseudo-Profound Bullshit (PPB) /Pseudoscientific Beliefs, Conspiracy Theories/Beliefs and magical realism. The chapter concludes with an argument to interrogate beliefs and behaviours to establish whether they are based on superstition or not, by drawing upon an analytical, critical and methodological approach. Doing so reveals whether a source can be relied upon in decision making or whether it appears to rest upon superstition or other unwarranted beliefs.
Based on “laws” of contagion and similarity, it is understood that people tend to believe that meanings associated with one object may be transferred onto another, and the meanings of the first may “contaminate” the second. The perceived contamination may influence the individual’s way of interacting with the object. We aimed to produce a rich description of individual differences that predict intuitive judgments in response to scenarios involving activation of contagion heuristics. Adolescents and adults in Germany completed a survey and provided rated responses to hypothetical scenarios. They also gave open-ended remarks on one scenario: whether they would wear a sweater that had belonged to Adolf Hitler if they were cold. Content analysis produced a composite description of reflections with insights into historical consciousness in contemporary Germany. Also examined was the extent to which quantitative responses were related to demographics, personality characteristics, supernatural beliefs, and responses to other scenarios.
The overconfidence effect is a cognitive bias in which individuals' subjective confidence in their judgements is greater than their actual performance. Extending beyond a range of contributing factors in the emergence of the overconfidence bias, the present research examines whether superstition, an under-explored yet important factor, can influence people's perceived level of confidence. Drawing on previous findings regarding the consequences of superstitions, we propose that activating the good-luck-related superstitions can increase overconfidence in one's judgment. Specifically, Experiments 1 and 2 show that Chinese Han student and non-student participants, who were activated by different types of superstitions, displayed a higher level of overconfidence than those in the absence of superstition. Experiment 3 fully replicated the causal effect of superstition beliefs on the heightened overconfidence bias in a traditional population of Chinese Qiang people. Moreover, Experiments 1 through 3 consistently show that self-efficacy mediates the relationship between superstition and overconfidence. Taken together, these findings suggest that superstition strengthens people's belief in their own performance ability, which in turn boosts overconfidence.
This study aims to investigate common superstition beliefs, superstition beliefs in its relationship with suggestibility, locus of control and some demographic variables (gender- academic specialization – academic achievement) among Cairo University students. The study sample consists of (820) males and females from University students, the number of males is (399), with an average age of (20, 70) years, and a standard deviation of (1, 62) years, whereas (420) females, with an average age of (20, 64) years, and a standard deviation of (1, 36) years. This sample was selected from seven colleges: three theoretical and four practical colleges, distributed on (second- third- fourth –fifth) years of study. Three scales have been applied to the sample: scale of superstitions beliefs, suggestibility scale and locus of control scale with consideration of the psychometric features for these scales.
The statistical analysis leads to the following results:
First: regarding the common superstition beliefs and its domains, there are some common superstitious detected in the total sample, represented in superstitious about optimism, pessimism and future prediction, Also, in superstitions about both taboos and statutes, as well as superstitions about magic and supernatural events are shared by the entire sample. Factorial analysis results exposed the regularity of superstition in (8) for males and (7) for females, which means that superstition phenomenon are regulated in correlative system.
Second: with regard to the results about the relationship between superstition beliefs and two personality traits, there is a significant positive correlation between superstition beliefs and the degree of suggestibility, i.e whenever the degree of suggestibility increases, the belief in superstitions increases. Moreover, we could find significant positive correlation between superstition beliefs and external locus of control; if the event is beyond the control of the individual, the belief in superstition increases.
Third: regarding the findings about the relationship between superstition beliefs and some demographic variables which are (gender- academic specialization – level of academic achievement), it is found that there are higher levels of female belief in superstitions than males, Also the students in theoretical specialization believed more in superstition, compared to students of practical specialization specializations. However, there are no differences in superstitious beliefs between students of both higher and lower academic achievement.
Finally, the study introduced a number of recommendations for future studies in this topic.
Keywords: Superstition beliefs, Suggestibility, Locus of control, External locus of control, Internal locus of control
Research on the dimensionality and measurement of luck beliefs has yet to produce a clear conceptual and metrical consensus. This research theorizes a bidimensional model of luck beliefs that is tested through a series of studies (total n = 1205) validating the new Belief in Luck and Luckiness Scale. Unlike existing conceptualizations and measures, this new model is applicable to both believers and non-believers in luck, and reveals belief in luck and personal luckiness to be discrete, uncorrelated, and respectively unidimensional constructs.
For many researchers the Rasch model provides a very practical solution to data
analysis in the social sciences. This volume contends that Rasch measurement is
"the model of choice" because it is the closest to realizing the sort of objective
fundamental measurement so long revered in the physical sciences. Trevor Bond
has worked with leading Rasch theoreticians for more than 15 years, advising
developmentalists and teachers on how to conduct and interpret Rasch analyses of
their own data. After each of his many research presentations, Dr. Bond was asked
to recommend a suitable text for those who wish to learn more about Rasch
analysis. Unfortunately, the books published to date require a significant knowledge
of statistics and are not easily accessible to many practicing researchers. This lack
of a suitable introductory text is the driving force behind this book.
The goals of this authored volume are:
• to present an accessible overview of the basic properties and principles of
Rasch analysis, that does not require a sophisticated statistical background;
• to demonstrate how Rasch analysis can be applied to a number of generic
problems encountered by psychologists and educators; and
• to prepare readers for performing their own analyses and interpreting the
results.
This book is ideal for researchers in the human sciences interested in learning how
to implement the Rasch model with their own data.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Dr. Trevor G. Bond is a senior faculty member of the School of Education at James
Cook University in Australia. Since his introduction to Rasch Analysis in 1985, Dr.
Bond has worked with some of the world's leading Rasch theoreticians in order to
bridge the gap between the possibilities of the model and its use in empirical
research.
Dr. Christine M. Fox is an Associate Professor at The University of Toledo where
she teaches a variety of educational research and statistics courses. She received
her Ph.D. in Evaluation and Measurement from Kent State University.
This Chapter explains the Rasch model for ordered response categories by demonstrating the latent response structure and process compatible with the model. This is necessary because there is some confusion in the interpretation of the parameters and the possible response process characterized by the model. The confusion arises from two main sources. First, the model has the initially counterintuitive properties that (i) the values of the estimates of the thresholds defining the boundaries between the categories on the latent continuum can be reversed relative to their natural order, and (ii) that adjacent categories cannot be combined in the sense that their probabilities can be summed to form a new category. Second, two identical models at the level of a single person responding to a single item, the so called rating and partial credit models, have been portrayed as being different in the response structure and response process compatible with the model. This Chapter studies the structure and process compatible with the Rasch model, in which subtle and unusual distinctions need to be made between the values and structure of response probabilities and between compatible and determined relationships. The Chapter demonstrates that the response process compatible with the model is one of classification in which a response in any category implies a latent response at every threshold. The Chapter concludes with an example of a response process that is compatible with the model and one that is incompatible.
Studies on luck and chance have developed models, which tend to demonstrate two kinds of people: those who perceive chance as a personality trait and those as a random event. In other respects, studies on counterfactual thinking have shown that people construct a belief about their capacities to identify favourable occasions when they can succeed. In this case, people consider that opportunity is a kind of irrational belief like chance and luck. According to these conceptualisations, an instrument was constructed including positive and negative perceptions of fortune, luck and opportunity. In total, 195 students completed this instrument. Principal component and confirmatory factor analyses revealed the predicted four components marked by luck, good fortune, bad fortune and opportunity. Finally, it appeared that these four perceptions confirmed previous studies concerning relations between self-esteem, anxiety and achievement motivation and irrational beliefs in chance.
Superstitions are typically seen as inconsequential creations of irrational minds. Nevertheless, many people rely on superstitious thoughts and practices in their daily routines in order to gain good luck. To date, little is known about the consequences and potential benefits of such superstitions. The present research closes this gap by demonstrating performance benefits of superstitions and identifying their underlying psychological mechanisms. Specifically, Experiments 1 through 4 show that activating good-luck-related superstitions via a common saying or action (e.g., "break a leg," keeping one's fingers crossed) or a lucky charm improves subsequent performance in golfing, motor dexterity, memory, and anagram games. Furthermore, Experiments 3 and 4 demonstrate that these performance benefits are produced by changes in perceived self-efficacy. Activating a superstition boosts participants' confidence in mastering upcoming tasks, which in turn improves performance. Finally, Experiment 4 shows that increased task persistence constitutes one means by which self-efficacy, enhanced by superstition, improves performance.
A sample of 279 13- to 16-year-old adolescents completed the Short-form Revised Junior Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (JEPQR-S) and a six-item Index of Paranormal Belief. The data demonstrate that neuroticism is fundamental to individual differences in paranormal belief, while paranormal belief is independent of extraversion and psychoticism.
Traditional Western superstitious beliefs, such as black cats and the number 13 bringing bad luck, may not be applicable to different cultures. This study develops a Chinese Superstitious Belief Scale by conducting two studies with 363 and 395 participants, respectively. Exploratory factor analysis was used to construct the scale and then structural equation modeling was applied to verify its reliability and validity. The scale contains six dimensions, Homonym, Traditional customs, Power of crystal, Horoscope, Feng-shui, and Luck for gambling. Findings are helpful for understanding the difference between Chinese superstitions and the traditional Western superstitions and permits subsequent development of sociopsychological theories on correlates and effects of Chinese superstitions.
The current study evaluated the psychometric properties of Wiseman and Watt's (2004) negative and positive superstitious belief items. The original items were compared with a modified, reworded set of items which emphasized each item's relation with either good or bad luck, and standard psychometric analyses were done. Modifying the items did not improve their psychometric properties; there was a negligible effect on Cronbach alpha, and Positive Item 3 continued to perform poorly. Confirmatory factor analysis, using the maximum likelihood method, suggested that a two-factor solution was preferable to a one-factor solution for both the original and modified items and that the problematic item should be discounted. It was concluded that the items require development and refinement before firm conclusions can be made about the factorial structure of superstitious belief. These results should also be tested further using Rasch methods.
The purpose of this article was to verify whether beliefs about chance are multi or unidimensional constructs. Traditionally, authors who assessed beliefs about chance postulated that individuals who perceive themselves as unlucky usually believe that chance is random and are less confident as well as more anxious. Curiously, it appears that sometimes these individuals act as if they were motivated to avoid negative consequences. In order to better understand these puzzling findings, two studies were performed to compare three instruments intended to assess beliefs about chance and to verify their causal properties. In total, 285 students filled out a battery of instruments, including chance questionnaires (LOC, BIGL and MBIC) and personality traits. Overall, results showed that luck, through perceived controllability, seems to be related to volitional control, whereas chance, which is more stable and less controllable than luck, can be associated with cognitive distortions. The implications of these results are discussed.
A rating response mechanism for ordered categories, which is related to the traditional threshold formulation but distinctively different from it, is formulated. In addition to the subject and item parameters two other sets of parameters, which can be interpreted in terms of thresholds on a latent continuum and discriminations at the thresholds, are obtained. These parameters are identified with the category coefficients and the scoring function of the Rasch model for polychotomous responses in which the latent trait is assumed uni-dimensional. In the case where the threshold discriminations are equal, the scoring of successive categories by the familiar assignment of successive integers is justified. In the case where distances between thresholds are also equal, a simple pattern of category coefficients is shown to follow.
Local independence in the Rasch model can be violated in two generic ways that are generally not distinguished clearly in the literature. In this paper we distinguish between a violation of unidimensionality, which we call trait dependence, and a specific violation of statistical independence, which we call response dependence, both of which violate local independence. Distinct algebraic formulations for trait and response dependence are developed as violations of the dichotomous Rasch model, data are simulated with varying degrees of dependence according to these formulations, and then analysed according to the Rasch model assuming no violations. Relative to the case of no violation it is shown that trait and response dependence result in opposite effects on the unit of scale as manifested in the range and standard deviation of the scale and the standard deviation of person locations. In the case of trait dependence the scale is reduced; in the case of response dependence it is increased. Again, relative to the case of no violation, the two violations also have opposite effects on the person separation index (analogous to Cronbach's alpha reliability index of traditional test theory in value and construction): it decreases for data with trait dependence; it increases for data with response dependence. A standard way of accounting for dependence is to combine the dependent items into a higher-order polytomous item. This typically results in a decreased person separation index index and Cronbach's alpha, compared with analysing items as discrete, independent items. This occurs irrespective of the kind of dependence in the data, and so further contributes to the two violations not being distinguished clearly. In an attempt to begin to distinguish between them statistically this paper articulates the opposite effects of these two violations in the dichotomous Rasch model.
Beliefs about control have been postulated to be important to anxiety and mood disorders. In particular, the phenomenology of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) suggests that it may be an exemplar of an anxiety disorder where control issues related to the self (behavior and thoughts) and world (the external environment) are particularly important. However, only beliefs concerning the need to control thoughts have been incorporated into contemporary theories of OCD. This article summarizes the theoretical and empirical research relevant to control-related beliefs in OCD. It is suggested that discrepancies between an individual's desired level of control and their perceived level of control could contribute to OCD symptoms, and exacerbate the tendency for individuals with OCD to engage in magical ideation and superstitious rituals. Overall, this review demonstrates how consideration of control cognitions could enhance our understanding of OCD and further improve its treatment.
Article
Many quantities of interest in medicine, such as anxiety or degree of handicap, are impossible to measure explicitly. Instead, we ask a series of questions and combine the answers into a single numerical value. Often this is done by simply adding a score from each answer. For example, the mini-HAQ is a measure of impairment developed for patients with cervical myelopathy.1 This has 10 items (table 1)) recording the degree of difficulty experienced in carrying out daily activities. Each item is scored from 1 (no difficulty) to 4 (can't do). The scores on the 10 items are summed to give the mini-HAQ score.
View this table:View PopupView InlineTable 1
Mini-HAQ scale in 249 severely impaired subjects
When items are used to form a scale they need to have internal consistency. The items should all measure the same thing, so they should be correlated with one another. A useful coefficient for assessing internal consistency is Cronbach's alpha.2 The formula is:
[This figure is not available.]
where k is the number of items, si2 is the variance of the ith item and sT2 is the variance of the total score formed by summing all the items. If the items are not simply added to make the score, but first multiplied by weighting coefficients, we multiply the item by its coefficient before calculating the variance si2. Clearly, we must have at least two items-that is k >1, or will be undefined.
The coefficient works because the variance of the sum of a group of independent variables is the sum of their variances. If the variables are positively correlated, the variance of the sum will be increased. If the items making up the score are all identical and so perfectly correlated, all the si2 will be equal and sT2 = k2 si2, so that si2/sT2 = 1/k and = 1. On the other hand, if the items are all independent, then sT2 = si2 and = 0. Thus will be 1 if the items are all the same and 0 if none is related to another.
For the mini-HAQ example, the standard deviations of each item and the total score are shown in the table. We have si2 = 11.16, sT2 = 77.44, and k = 10. Putting these into the equation, we have
[This figure is not available.]
which indicates a high degree of consistency.
For scales which are used as research tools to compare groups, may be less than in the clinical situation, when the value of the scale for an individual is of interest. For comparing groups, values of 0.7 to 0.8 are regarded as satisfactory. For the clinical application, much higher values of are needed. The minimum is 0.90, and =0.95, as here, is desirable.
In a recent example, McKinley et al devised a questionnaire to measure patient satisfaction with calls made by general practitioners out of hours.3 This included eight separate scores, which they interpreted as measuring constructs such as satisfaction with communication and management, satisfaction with doctor's attitude, etc. They quoted for each score, ranging from 0.61 to 0.88. They conclude that the questionnaire has satisfactory internal validity, as five of the eight scores had >0.7. In this issue Bosma et al report similar values, from 0.67 to 0.84, for assessments of three characteristics of the work environment.4
Cronbach's alpha has a direct interpretation. The items in our test are only some of the many possible items which could be used to make the total score. If we were to choose two random samples of k of these possible items, we would have two different scores each made up of k items. The expected correlation between these scores is .
References1.↵Casey ATH, Crockard HA, Bland JM, Stevens J, Moskovich R, Ransford AO.Development of a functional scoring system for rheumatoid arthritis patients with cervical myelopathy Ann Rheum Dis (in press).2.↵Cronbach LJ.Coefficient alpha and the internal structure of tests.Psychometrika1951; 16:297–333.3.↵McKinley RK, Manku Scott T, Hastings AM, French DP, Baker R.Reliability and validity of a new measure of patient satisfaction with out of hours primary medical care in the United Kingdom: development of a patient questionnaire.BMJ1997; 314:193–8.OpenUrlFREE Full Text4.↵Bosma H, Marmot MG, Hemingway H, Nicholson AC, Brunner E, Stansfield SA.Low job control and risk of coronary heart disease in Whitehall II (prospective cohort) study.BMJ1997; 314:558–65.
A large body of research has attempted to develop theories about the function and origin of superstitious beliefs on the basis of the psychological correlates of such beliefs. Most of this work has measured superstitious belief using the Paranormal Belief Scale (PBS). However, this scale refers solely to negative superstitions (e.g., breaking a mirror will cause bad luck) and omits items referring to positive superstitions (e.g., carrying a lucky charm will bring good luck). The two studies reported here found significant interactions between belief in negative and positive superstitions, and several individual difference measures. These findings have important implications for theory development, demonstrate that the PBS is an incomplete measure of superstitious belief, and highlight the need for future measures to include items referring to positive superstitions.
Many published papers include large numbers of significance tests. These may be difficult to interpret because if we go on testing long enough we will inevitably find something which is “significant.” We must beware of attaching too much importance to a lone significant result among a mass of non-significant ones. It may be the one in 20 which we expect by chance alone.
Lee et al simulated a clinical trial of the treatment of coronary artery disease by allocating 1073 patient records from past cases into two “treatment” groups at random.1 They then analysed the outcome as if it were a genuine trial of two treatments. The analysis was quite detailed and thorough. As we would expect, it failed to show any significant difference in survival between those patients allocated to the two treatments. Patients were then subdivided by two variables which affect prognosis, the number of diseased coronary vessels and whether the left ventricular contraction pattern was normal or abnormal. A significant difference in survival between the two “treatment” groups was found in those patients with three diseased vessels (the maximum) and abnormal ventricular contraction. As this would be the subset of patients with the worst prognosis, the finding would be easy to account for by saying that the superior “treatment” …
The purpose of this research is twofold. First is to extend the work of Smith (1992, 1996) and Smith and Miao (1991, 1994) in comparing item fit statistics and principal component analysis as tools for assessing the unidimensionality requirement of Rasch models. Second is to demonstrate methods to explore how violations of the unidimensionality requirement influence person measurement. For the first study, rating scale data were simulated to represent varying degrees of multidimensionality and the proportion of items contributing to each component. The second study used responses to a 24 item Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder scale obtained from 317 college undergraduates. The simulation study reveals both an iterative item fit approach and principal component analysis of standardized residuals are effective in detecting items simulated to contribute to multidimensionality. The methods presented in Study 2 demonstrate the potential impact of multidimensionality on norm and criterion-reference person measure interpretations. The results provide researchers with quantitative information to help assist with the qualitative judgment as to whether the impact of multidimensionality is severe enough to warrant removing items from the analysis.
Keep your fingers crossed! How superstition improves performance
- L Damisch
- B Stoberock
- T Mussweiler
Damisch, L., Stoberock, B. & Mussweiler, T. (2010). Keep your fingers crossed! How
superstition improves performance. Psychological Science, 20, 1-7.
Probabilistic Models for Some Intelligence and Achievement Tests. Copenhagen: Danish Institute for Educational Research
- G Rasch
Rasch, G. (1960). Probabilistic Models for Some Intelligence and Achievement Tests.
Copenhagen: Danish Institute for Educational Research. (Expanded edition 1980).
Chicago: MESA Press.
Queensland Social Survey
- C Hanley
- K Mummery
Hanley, C. & Mummery, K. (2008). Queensland Social Survey 2008. Final Sampling
Report. Rockhampton: Central Queensland University.
Applying the Rasch Model (second edn) Toledo
- T G Bond
- C M Fox
Bond, T. G. and Fox, C. M. (2007) Applying the Rasch Model (second edn) Toledo,
University of Toledo.