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Abstract
Unlike other living creatures, humans can adapt to uncertainty. They can form hypotheses about situations marked by uncertainty and can anticipate their actions by planning. They can expect the unexpected and take precautions against it. In numerous experiments, we have investigated the manner in which humans deal with these demands. In these experiments, we used computer simulated scenarios representing, for example, a small town, ecological or economic systems or political systems such as a Third World country. Within these computer-simulated scenarios, the subjects had to look for information, plan actions, form hypotheses, etc.
... Building on the earlier literature (Baumgartner & Jones, 2005;Dörner, 1990;Hallsworth et al., 2018), we have identified four main types of action situations that evaluators can encounter in public policy. These are: (1) noticing policy issue, (2) defining policy problem, (3) choosing a solution, and (4) executing policy solution. ...
... Additionally, they can experience an illusion of similarity, assuming that others have similar views, determination, and understanding of the policy issue. Other challenges at this stage include insufficient goal elaboration (Dörner, 1990 calls it the "repair-shop principle" when an initially diagnosed problem is quickly matched with a solution already available in the system) and falling into myopia by neglecting the side effects and long-term implications of specific policy problems (Smith, 1995). ...
... For instance, the attention of humans usually cannot be directed at many things simultaneously; if an individual's attention is occupied by something, it might not pay attention to something else, anyway how important this other thing objectively is (Broadbent, 1999). The limited amount of attention leads to an over-emphasising of the current, most accessible line of thinking in individuals (Dörner, 1996). Another reason for 'selective perception' is symbolised by the saying 'you can only see, what you know'. ...
... Throughout the history of mankind and by education of each individual, humans have acquired a set of strategies and heuristics that in many occasions are reasonable to employ, when a decision has to be made (Gigerenzer & Todd, 2000). However, as research shows there seem to be situations were these otherwise useful methods of the mind are prone to systematic errors (Dörner, 1996). Such situations are identified above as being complex decision-making in production and operations management. ...
The main purpose of this article is to examine the relationship of theory of constraints with system dynamics in operations management. The paper also aims at the presentation of examples showing how deficient managerial decision-making in operations management can be. The theoretical and literature-based article ends with an investigation of the intersection of the theory of constraints and system dynamics. Supporting indications are gathered from different fields of science, for instance, decision science, psychology, sociology, and biology. Examples of apparently deficient decision-making in production contexts are given. It is shown how the theory of constraints and the broader field of system dynamics offers concepts and methods to mitigate some issues of poor decision-making. The complexity of decision making can be eased in the modern business world with the help of the relationship of theory of constraints with system dynamics.
... We can acknowledge that each school has a legitimate concern, but by itself excludes many other concerns that make up the whole of reality. Taking into consideration only premises that we can agree with and ignoring others, as do many strategists of each of these schools, can create trouble when making decisions (Dorner, 1996), especially strategic decisions. ...
... Also, because of the issues the four main actors' perspective raise, in many cases information is not shared or passed on to the person making decisions (McCall & Kaplan, 1990). When making decisions, strategists need to understand how easily they fail to consider all the premises (Dorner, 1996). ...
Strategic decision makers have a set of beliefs, a worldview, that frame what reality is for them. Using this framework, they set strategic goals which, in turn, form a set of primary actions that define the strategic options of the firm. Therefore, we should be able to recognize various schools of strategy as defined by distinctive sets of beliefs in theory and practice. The paper argues that this is the case and that we should then be able to define at least one possible Christian school of strategy, framed by a Christian set of beliefs. A Christian school of strategy should assist all strategists in achieving their purposes in ways that are lifeenhancing for their organizations.
... Solving complex problems is a key challenge not only for individuals in their private lives but also in their professional lives, and for societies as a whole. Complex problem solving (CPS) refers to solving problems that are complex, dynamic, and non-transparent [1][2][3]; they consist of many interwoven variables; they change over time independently of the decisions people make; and not all aspects are known to the problem solver and decision maker. Similarly, many researchers in the field of business speak of VUCA-world problems, problems in a business environment that are volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous [4,5]. ...
... A situation that cannot be changed or that is experienced as overwhelming is also experienced as a threat. When it is unclear whether planned actions will have the intended consequences, then one often looks for controllable domains of reality in which at least some success can be achieved; for example, blaming others, solving unrelated issues, and denial are common errors in threatening situations [2]. ...
Complex problem solving (CPS) research has focused on cognitive variables, but in recent years, the influential role of emotions and motivation during the CPS process has been highlighted. In the current study, we focus on emotion regulation during CPS. Eighty-three university students worked on a simulated chocolate-producing company. Initially, they completed a survey on emotion regulation and demographics. Then, they were randomly assigned to four conditions where emotions were induced with short video clips: anger, fear, happiness, and trust. A manipulation check assessed the successful priming of emotions. While working individually on the microworld, CPS behavior and performance were saved in log files. We hypothesized that happiness and trust would lead to better performance than fear and anger. We also hypothesized that emotion regulation would be positively related to performance. There were no differences in performance at the beginning and at the end of the simulation among the four emotion groups. Regression analyses showed that emotion-regulation strategies significantly predicted CPS performance. Aggression was positively related to performance. Results show that it is more the regulation of emotions than the emotion per se that influences CPS performance.
... In his paper The Logic of Failure [82] Dorner give an example of how computer simulation can show experts and students how not understanding many subtle interactions can cause catastrophic failures in complex systems. A 2004 study by de Freitas and Levene, validated in consultation with experts, comprised a consultation exercise with tutors and learners who use games and simulations regularly in the learning practice. ...
Education is a major force for economic and social wellbeing. Despite high aspirations, education at all levels can be expensive and ineffective. Three Grand Challenges are identified: (1) enable people to learn orders of magnitude more effectively, (2) enable people to learn at orders of magnitude less cost, and (3) demonstrate success by exemplary interdisciplinary education in complex systems science. A ten year `man-on-the-moon' project is proposed in which FuturICT's unique combination of Complexity, Social and Computing Sciences could provide an urgently needed transdisciplinary language for making sense of educational systems. In close dialogue with educational theory and practice, and grounded in the emerging data science and learning analytics paradigms, this will translate into practical tools (both analytical and computational) for researchers, practitioners and leaders; generative principles for resilient educational ecosystems; and innovation for radically scalable, yet personalised, learner engagement and assessment. The proposed {\em Education Accelerator} will serve as a `wind tunnel' for testing these ideas in the context of real educational programmes, with an international virtual campus delivering complex systems education exploiting the new understanding of complex, social, computationally enhanced organisational structure developed within FuturICT.
... In current public policy, literature myopia is identified as one of the shortcomings of performance measurement systems. The decision-makers' insufficient ideas about the system's behavior in time, with its delayed sideeffects is often the reason for policy failures (Dörner, 1990). Recent evaluation literature started to explore approaches and methods for advocating a long-term perspective for policy evaluation and going beyond the typical short-term perspective that programs and evaluators usually operate with (Fross et al., 2021). ...
This chapter addresses the challenge of persuading decision-makers to attentively consider evaluators' insights by exploring effective communication strategies. Drawing inspiration from Chinese pre-imperial political discourse, specifically the Warring States Period (453–221 BCE), we investigate how these ancient techniques can inform contemporary communication in the post-truth era. The chapter is structured into three sections. The first section justifies the selection of the Warring States Period and key texts: Zhanguoce, Zhuangzi, and the Lüshi Chunqiu, and outlines our text analysis approach. We identify three primary communication strategies from these texts. The concluding section links these strategies to contemporary literature on decision-making biases, suggesting their potential to overcome cognitive barriers and improve evaluators' influence.
Although the sharing economy in tourism has garnered much positive attention, perennial ethical gray areas have been ignored. Drawing upon the ecological systems theory, we investigate the influence of different systemic factors, classified as individual differences and environmental context, on the ethical behavior of travelers (i.e., reporting malfunctions in a bike‐sharing context and saving water/electricity in a peer‐to‐peer accommodation context). PLS‐SEM and fsQCA are applied to analyze and examine proposed hypotheses. The results complement the factor configuration differences between the two behaviors. Moreover, this study provides new insights into the regulatory guidelines for shared service operators in the tourism industry.
The paper emphasizes the need to consider negative aspects of creativity, especially in design, where it can have significant societal impacts. It calls for a more comprehensive view of creativity that includes both positive and negative effects and proposes a research approach to assess the potential negative consequences of creative work.
This article deals with the issue of creativity and its understanding in various national cultures. The study aims to explore the resources of the scientific literature in terms of identifying different approaches to creativity and answering the question of how individual cultures differentiate approaches to creativity in the arts sector. The study is a review of the scientific literature on the subject. Databases such as SCOPUS and Web of Science were used. The study allowed identification of a consistently growing trend in relation to publications referring to the idea of creativity in all areas of science. When it comes to the nationality of the authors, Americans still dominate, although in recent years a higher growth rate can be observed in the case of scientists from China. The social sciences are still the leading field which represents the highest part of literature undertaking the creativity issue. A comparable situation was confirmed for creativity in the art sector. A clear trend has been observed in the international literature consisting of the division into approaches to creativity typical of Eastern culture and Western culture. This division is somewhat blurred with the processes of globalisation. It seems that art is the sector in which national culture has a special influence. The examples presented give an overview of how different these approaches and interpretations can be. Several research questions have been formulated which may be the subject of research attention in further studies.
Die rolle heuristischen wissens beim umgang mit einem komplexen system -oder -sind manager bessere manager?
- H Schaub
- S Strohschneider
Schaub, H. & Strohschneider, S. 1989 Die rolle heuristischen wissens beim umgang mit einem komplexen system
-oder -sind manager bessere manager? Forsch. Lehr. Psychol. 11. Memorandum 68.