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The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset - A new era in climate change research

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A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published so far. Though initially aimed at the IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. Never before has such an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state-of-the-art climate model output, and thus represents a new era in climate change research. As a direct consequence, these ongoing studies are increasing the body of knowledge regarding the understanding of how the climate system currently works, and how it may change in the future.
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T he history of climate change
modeling was first characterized
in the 1980s by a number of
distinct groups developing, running,
and analyzing model output from their
own models with little opportunity
for anyone outside of those groups to
have access to the model data. This
was partly a consequence of relatively
primitive computer networking and
data transfer capabilities, along with
the daunting task of collecting and
storing such large amounts X
BY GERALD A. MEEHL, CURT COVEY, THOMAS DELWORTH,
MOJIB LAT IF, BRYANT MCAVANE Y, JOHN F. B. MITCHELL,
RONALD J. STOUFF ER, AND KARL E. TAYL OR
Open access to
an unprecedented,
comprehensive coordinated
set of global coupled climate
model experiments for twentieth
and twenty-first century climate
and other experiments is changing
the way researchers and
students analyze and learn
about climate.
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THE WCRP CMIP3
MULTIMODEL
DATASET
A New Era in Climate Change Research
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|
of model data (Meehl 1995). Starting in the mid-
1990s, a World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP) committee [now named the WCRP/Climate
Vari abilit y a nd P re dic tability (CL IVAR) Work ing
Group on Coupled Models (WGCM)] organized the
first global coupled climate model intercomparison
exercise whereby modeling groups performed control
runs and idealized 1% yr–1 CO2 increase experiments
(Meehl et al. 1997). A subset of model data was then
collected and archived at the Program for Climate
Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and
made available to researchers outside the modeling
groups. Subsequently there were several additional
phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP), termed CMIP2 and CMIP2+ (Meehl et al.
2000, 2005b; Covey et al. 2003). The latter marked
the first time that every field from each model com-
ponent (atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice) from
the control and 1% CO2 increase experiments was
collected and made available for analysis. However,
only output from the control runs and 1% CO2 ex-
periments were collected because those represented
the most scientifically straightforward response of
the climate system to an unambiguous change in
external forcing. Limitations in data transfer and
storage still restricted the collection of output from
the early climate change scenario experiments [e.g.,
experiments using the IS92a scenario as described
in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Second Assessment Report; Kattenberg et al.
1996]. It was recognized that such an exercise would
ce rta in ly be us eful at s ome s tag e to o pen up t he ou tput
of state-of-the-art climate change scenario experi-
ments for analysis by the wider community.
During t he lead-up to the IPCC Third Assessment
Report (TAR) in the late 1990s, a set of emission
scenarios for twenty-first-century climate was
produced and documented in the Special Report on
Em ission Scena rio s (ty pic ally refe rred to as the SRE S
emission scenarios; Nakicenovic et al. 2000). The
climate modeling community was asked to perform
experiments with these scenarios for assessment
in the TAR. The late date and the large number of
scenarios (numbering about 30 at the time) dictated
that only two (A2 and B2) could be run by a limited
number of groups that had the wherewithal to per-
form such experiments with the associated consider-
able computing requirements on such short notice.
There was litt le time to analyze these data, and only a
few fields were collected and assessed by the authors of
the TAR to illustrate possible future climate changes
(Cubasch et al. 2001; Giorgi et al. 2001). Subsequently,
output from some of these experiments was collected
by the IPCC Data Distribution Centre in Hamburg,
Germany (http://cera-www.dkrz.de/IPCC_DDC/),
and made available to the climate change impacts
community. But, this still amounted to only a few
models and experiments, and was aimed at a limited
segment of the climate science community.
As planning for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4) commenced in 2003, the climate modeling
community, as represented at the international level
by WGCM, recognized that this process had to be
better organized and carefully coordinated. Not only
must there be more lead time for the modeling groups
to be able to marshal improved model versions and
the requisite computing resources to participate, but
there should also be time and capability for the model
data to be analyzed by a larger group of researchers.
In this way, it was desired that more studies based on
these model experiments could be performed by more
scientists in time for the AR4, thus providing a better
assessment of the state of human knowledge on climate
variability and climate change from the models.
THE INITIATION OF THE WCRP CMIP3
MULTIMODEL DATASET. In consulating with
the IPCC Working Group 1 cochairs, in late 2003
WGCM embarked on a process to coordinate a set
of experiments covering many aspects of climate
variability and change that could be performed by as
many modeling groups as possible with state-of-the-
art global coupled climate models [sometimes referred
to as atmosphere–ocean general circulation models
(AOGCMs)]. The model data were then collected and
made available for analysis (Meehl et al. 2004, 2005b).
However, a crucial part of this effort was to archive
AFFILIATIONS : MEEHL—National Center for Atmospheric
Research,* Boulder, Colorado; COVE Y AND TAYL OR—Program
for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Livermore,
California; DELWORTH AND STOU FFERGeophysical Fluid Dynamics
Labor atory, Princeton, New Jersey; LAT IF Leibniz-Institut fuer
Meereswissenschaften, Kiel, Germany; MCAVAN EYBureau of
Meteorology, Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia; MITCHELL
Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
*The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by
the National Science Foundation
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Gerald A. Meehl, National Center
for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307
E-mail: meehl @ncar.ucar.edu
The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the
table of contents.
DOI:10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383
In fin al form 19 March 2007
©2007 American Meteorological Society
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SEPTEMBER 2007AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |
and actually organize the data so that they were readily
available to the international climate science com-
munity for analysis. PCMDI agreed to take on this
considerable challenge, which was destined to be the
third phase of CMIP, or CMIP3. PCMDI’s role proved
to be crucial in CMIP3, the largest international global
coupled climate model experiment and multimodel
analysis effort ever attempted.
The list of experiments included the following
(single realizations were acceptable, but modeling
groups were encouraged to run multimember
ensembles):
1) Twentieth-century simulation to year 2000 (prefer-
able starting from pre-industrial conditions in the
late 1800s) with anthropogenic and natural forc-
ings as modeling groups deemed appropriate;
2) Climate change experiment: Twenty-first-century
simulation with SRES B1 (low forcing, i.e., CO2
concentration about 550 ppm by 2100) from 2000
to 2100;
3) Climate change experiment: Twenty-first-century
climate change simulation with SRES A1B
(medium forcing, i.e., CO2 concentration of about
700 ppm by 2100) from 2000 to 2100;
4) Climate change experiment: Twenty-first-century
simulation with SR ES A2 (high forcing, i.e., CO2
concentration about 820 ppm by 2100) from 2000
to 2100;
5) Climate change commitment experiment: Fix
all concentrations at year 2000 values and run to
2100 (CO2 ~ 360 ppm);
6) Climate change commitment experiment: Fix all
concentrat ions at ye ar 210 0 va lues for B1 a nd run
to 2200 (CO2 ~ 550 ppm);
7) Climate change commitment experiment: Fix all
concentrations at year 2100 values for A1B and
run to 2200 (CO2 ~ 700 ppm);
8) Idealized forcing and stabilization experiment:
1% yr–1 CO2 increase to doubling at year 70 with
corresponding control run, and an additional
150 yr with CO2 fixed at 2 × CO2;
9) Idealized forcing and stabilization run: 1% yr–1
CO2 increase run to quadrupling with an addi-
tional 150 yr with CO2 fixed at 4 × CO2,
10) 100-yr (minimum) control run with all forcings
held constant encompassing same time period as
in 1 above;
11) Climate sensitivity experiment: Instantaneously
double CO2 and run to equilibrium with atmo-
sphere coupled to a nondynamic slab ocean [also
as input to the Cloud Forcing Model Intercom-
parison Project (CFMIP)];
12) Extend one A1B and B1 climate change commit-
ment experiment simulation to 2300.
A fundamental part of the earlier phases of CMIP
(described above) was the idealized 1% yr–1 CO2
increase experiments, so those were also retained
in the CMIP3 list above as standard calibration
runs to better intercompare the coupled models
responses. These experiments were also necessary
to calculate the transient climate response (TCR),
defined as the globally averaged surface air tem-
perature increase at the time of CO2 doubling in
a 1% yr–1 compound CO2 increase experiment, a
standard metric to assess the coupled transient
response. Equilibrium climate sensitivity, another
standard metric for comparing model responses,
was also obtained from the atmosphere coupled to
the nondynamic slab ocean equilibrium 2 × CO2
experiment.
An extensive list of fields was requested to be
supplied to PCMDI by the modeling groups. The
volume of model data was so large that, in the
international context, conventional online data
transfer mechanisms became impractical. Therefore,
modeling groups were sent hard disks and asked
to copy their model data onto the disks in netCDF
format and then mail the disks to PCMDI where the
model data were downloaded and cataloged.
To provide an idea of the model outputs that were
collected, we summarize here in general terms the
types of model variables furnished by the modeling
groups. For a full list of fields that were requested
with detailed descriptions of the variables, see
www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/standard_output.html.
High-priority f ields are as follows (a few examples
of each are given in parentheses; note there were
additional low-priority fields requested as well that
are not listed here):
Mon thly mea n 2D a tmo sphe re or lan d su rfa ce d ata
(e.g., surface temperature, precipitation, sea level
pressure, soil moisture);
Time-independent 2D land surface data (e.g.,
orography, land area fraction);
Monthly mean 3D atmosphere data (e.g., air
temperature, winds, geopotential heights);
Monthly mean 1D ocean data (e.g., northward
ocean heat transport);
Monthly mean 2D ocean data (e.g., ocean meridi-
onal overturning streamfunction);
Monthly mean 0D or 2D ocean or sea ice data (e.g.,
sea surface height, sea level, sea ice fraction, sea ice
thickness);
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Time-independent 2D ocean data (e.g., ocean
bottom topography);
Monthly mean 3D ocean data (e.g., temperature,
salinity, ocean currents);
Daily mean 2D atmosphere data (e.g., surface
air temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure,
winds, surface energy balance components);
Daily mean 3D atmosphere data (e.g., air tempera-
ture, winds);
Three hourly 2D atmosphere data (e.g., surface
air temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure,
winds, surface energy balance components);
Extremes indexes (calculated from daily data,
five temperature-related indices, five precipita-
tion-related indices), from Frich et al. (2002, their
Table 1).
The modeling groups proceeded to complete as many
of the experi ments as they could manage during 2004.
By early 2005, a total of 16 modeling groups from 11
countries participated with 23 models. Considerable
resources (human and computing) were devoted to
this project. PCMDI collected and archived more
than 30 TB of model data by that time (www-pcmdi.
llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php). Subsequently, another
modeling group has contributed data to CMIP3, so
that the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset now
consists of 17 modeling groups from 12 countries
and 24 models. Figure 1a shows the current break-
down of models and experiments in the WCRP
CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and Fig. 1b indicates the
ensemble members that were submitted by the groups
for each experiment. As shown in Fig. 1, monthly
means were generally collected, with some daily
data and even some 6-hourly data generated to drive
regional models and for other applications.
ORGANIZATION OF THE ANALYSIS
PHASE OF CMIP3. The WGCM Climate Simula-
tion Panel (G. Meehl, chair, C. Covey, T. Delworth,
M. Latif, B. McAvaney, J. Mitchell, and R. Stouffer)
coordinated the collection of the model data, and
then undertook organizing the analysis phase in
2004 when sufficient model data had been archived
to allow the initiation of analysis projects. Several
announcements were made first by e-mail, and then
in generally read publications that would reach the
climate science community (e.g., Meehl et al. 2004).
Since the schedule would be tight for analyses to
be done and submitted for publication in time to
be assessed for the AR4, it was decided to hold a
workshop in early 2005 where preliminary results
from the analyses could be presented. By late 2004
nearly 300 scientists had registered to have access
to the multimodel dataset, but it was unclear how
many would actually have completed enough work
to present results at the workshop.
Meanwhile, to encourage participation of
U.S. scientist s, the U.S. Climate Variabilit y and
Predictability program (CLIVAR) made a significant
contribution by coordinating the Coupled Model
Evaluation Project (CMEP) that resulted in
multiagency funding for 21 analysis projects (www.
usclivar.org/CMEP_awards.html).
Results from analyses of the multimodel data-
set were presented by 125 scientists from all over
the world at the workshop that was convened and
or gan ized b y U.S . CL IVAR and WGCM and hos ted by
the International Pacific Research Center (University
of Hawaii) on 1–4 March 2005 (http://ipcc-wgl.ucar.
edu/meeting/CMSAW/). These results were intended
to feed directly into the AR4 process. To be assessed
as par t of t he A R4, it was intend ed t hat p apers shou ld
be submitted to peer-reviewed journals by late
spring 2004. Many of the participants at the Hawaii
workshop, as well as a number of others, ended up
submitting nearly 200 papers for assessment. This
was judged to be a considerable success, given the
tight time frame and the fact that most scientists
performed these analyses without additional funding
or resources over and above what they already had in
place (the exception being the CMEP investigators).
Si nce t hen , add iti onal pa pers have b een prepared and
submitted, and from those submitted papers over 200
have already appeared in the peer-reviewed literature,
with many more either in the review process or in
preparation (www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/subproject_
publications.php).
EXAMPLES OF RESULTS FROM ANALY-
SES OF THE WCRP CMIP3 MULTIMODEL
DATASET. Though it is beyond the scope of this
short summary article to provide a comprehensive
review of all the analyses published to date, we
choose here to select a few illustrative examples to
provide an idea of the types of analyses that have
been performed. Figure 2 shows globally averaged
surface air temperature time series from the experi-
ments compiled directly from the archived model
data (www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php).
The numbers in the figure indicate how many
models completed each phase of the experiments in
ti me to be assesse d in the IPCC AR4 (the nu mber of
ensemble members for each experiment and model
is shown separately in Fig. 1b). The shading is ±one
standard deviation of the intermodel variability.
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This figure depicts the largest number of AOGCMs
that have ever b een assemble d to s imulat e twent iet h-
and twenty-first-century climate and climate change
commitment. Results show that the widely quoted
observed twentieth-century warming of about 0.6°C
(e.g., Trenberth et al. 2007) is well simulated by the
FIG. 1. (a) Summar y of climate model experiments per formed with AOGCMs in the multimodel archive.
Colored fields indicate that some but not necessarily all variables of the specific data type (separated by
climate system component and time interval) have been archived at PCMDI. Where different shadings
are given in the legend, the color indicates whether single or multiple ensemble members are available.
(b) Number of ensemble members performed for each experiment and each scenario. Details on the
scenarios, variables, and models can be found at the PCMDI Web page (www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc /about _
ipcc.php). Note that some of the ensemble members using the CCSM3 were run on the Earth Simulator
in Japan in collaboration with the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI).
1388 SEPTEMBER 2007
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models. For the twenty-first century (computed
as the difference of mean temperature for years
2090–99 minus 1980–99), the models show an aver-
age warming of 1.8°, 2.8°, and 3.4°C for the low (B1),
medium (A1B), a nd high (A2) forcing scenarios,
respectively. For the commitment experiments, by
2100 the climate system warms by about an addi-
tional 0.6°C after concentrations are stabilized in
2000 while, for the other two commitment experi-
ments, by 2200 there is about another half-degree
warming over and above what occurred by 2100 in
B1 and A1B, respectively.
The availability of such a large number of models
provides considerable opportunity to explore model
simulation capability of va rious aspects of twentieth-
century climate (e.g., see publications listed at www.
usclivar.org/CMEP_awards.html). One example in
Fig. 3 shows the first and second EOFs of Antarctic
sea ice concentration from observations (Figs. 3a,b),
and also for a number of models’ simulations of
sea ice concentration. [Note that EOFs depict the
principal spatial patterns of variability (see, e.g.,
Kutzbach 1967)]. Though each model has its own
characteristic sea ice variability pattern, all show a
dipole with negative values in the Atlantic sector,
and positive values in the Pacific sector (Holland
and Raphael 2006). This type of quantification of
model simu lat ion c apabil ity of w hat we ha ve alre ady
observed provides a baseline for the degree of confi-
dence we can place in the models and how they may
simulate future changes. In this case, the overall
agreement in the basic pattern of variability between
the models and the observations builds confidence
that sea ice variability in a future warmer climate
can be usefully studied.
The CMIP3 multimodel dataset has also been
used to help understand climate changes that have
already been observed during the twentieth century.
For example, model results for the twentieth century
have been analyzed, in concert with additional single
forcing datasets from some of the models, to show
that the signature from large volcanic eruptions, such
as Krakatoa in the late nineteenth century, persist
and are manifested by reduced ocean heat content
for decades after the event. This offsets, to a certain
extent, the positive radiative forcing and associated
warming that would otherwise have occurred due to
increasing greenhouse gases in the early twentieth
century (e.g., Delworth et al. 2005; Gleckler et al.
2006).
Another way that the CMIP3 multimodel dataset
has been useful in interpreting observed climate
variability and trends over the latter part of the
twentieth century is demonstrated in a comparison
of different time scales of tropospheric and surface
temperature variability from the multimodel simu-
lations of twentieth-century climate to observed
quantities from satellites, radiosondes, and surface
weather stations (Santer et al. 2005). Figures 4a
and 4b show the relationship of variability on the
monthly time scale between globally averaged
surface temperature (x axis) and weighted estimates
of tropospheric temperature variability (y axis). The
colored symbols are results from 49 separate realiza-
tion s from 19 AO GCMs from t he mul timodel data set
for twentieth-century climate that included combi-
nations of anthropogenic and natural forcings. The
black symbols denote different observed radiosonde
and satellite datasets paired with two observed
surface temperature datasets. Figures 4c and 4d are
the same as Figs. 4a and 4b, but for trends from 1979
to 1999 in the models and observations. Note that in
all panels, the observations fall along a regression
line relating the model results, with the location of a
particular model realization on that regression line
depending mostly on simulated El Niño amplitude
in the models. The regression line lies above the
black line (which has a slope of 1.0), indicating that
FIG. 2. Multimodel means of surface warming for the
twent y-first centur y for the scenarios A2 , A1B, and B1,
and corresponding twentieth-century simulations. Values
beyond 2100 are for the climate change commitment
experiments that stabilized concentrations at year
2100 values for B1 and A1B. Linear trends from the
corresponding control runs have been removed from
these time series. Lines show the multimodel means,
and shading denotes the ± 1 std dev intermodel range.
Discontinuities between different periods have no physi-
cal meaning due to the fact that the number of models
run for a given scenario is different for each period and
scenario, as indicated by the numbers given for each
phase and scenario in the bottom part of the panel.
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there is enhancement of the magnitude of tem-
perature variability in the troposphere compared
to the surface in both the models and observations.
However, Figs. 4c and 4d show the relationship
among trends has less agreement between models
and observations. Therefore, either there are dif-
ferent physics operating at monthly and trend
time scales in the observations (whereby there can
somehow be good agreement on the monthly time
scale and less agreement on the trend time scale), or
this result points to the difficulties of constructing
accurate small trends with disparate observed data
with associated discontinuities in observing systems
over time.
Regarding changes of future climate a question
that is frequently asked is, What will El Niño do in
the future? Several ana lyses of the multimodel dataset
have been performed to address that question (e.g.,
Guilyardi 2006; Meehl et al. 2006; Merryfield 2006),
and Fig. 5 summarizes results from one such study
by van Oldenborgh et al. (2005). This figure attempts
to address the question of what future amplitude of
El Niño events could be in a future warmer climate
depicted in the multimodel dataset. Figure 5 clearly
shows a wide range of possible future behaviors
across the various models, agreeing with the other
studies cited above that there is no clear indication
from the models regarding future changes in El Niño
amplitude. This model dependence is the result of
several factors, not least of which is that no two
observed El Niño events are alike, and that different
models capture various aspects of the mechanisms
thought to produce El Niño events.
In several of the El Niño studies cited above, the
authors attempted to subselect models that more
faithfully simulated various metrics that applied to
FIG. 3. (a) First two EOFs from observed winter sea ice concentration (1979–99) scaled by the std dev
of the corresponding PC time series. Contour interval is 5%, 0 contour omitted, and negative values
are shaded. (b) First EOF of winter sea ice concentration from AOGCM simulations of the twentieth
centur y from 1960 to 1999 using linearly detrended data (Holland and Rafael 2006) .
FIG. 5. Relative change in
El Niño magnitude (first
EOF of detrended month-
ly SST in the region 10°S–
10° N, 12E–9W) in the
CMIP3 multimodel dataset.
The more reliable models,
as defined by their ability to
simulate several different
El Niño metrics in the current
climate, are dark red (after
van Oldenborgh et al. 2005).
1390 SEPTEMBER 2007
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FIG. 4. (a), (b) Information is provided on amplification of the monthly time scale surface temperature
variability in two weighted tropospheric temperature products as defined in Santer et al. (2005). (c),
(d) Same as in (a), (b), but depicting the relation between decadal time-scale trends at the surface
and in the troposphere. The colored symbols in each panel indicate realizations from 49 ensemble
members for twentieth-century climate simulations from 19 AOGCMs from the multimodel archive.
The fitted regression lines (in red) are based on model data only. The black lines denote a slope of
1.0. Values above the black lines indicate tropospheric enhancement, and values below the black
line indicate tropospheric damping of surface temperature changes. Black symbols indicate results
from separate radiosonde and satellite MSU data paired with two surface temperature datasets.
The blue shading in (c) and (d) defines the region of simultaneous surface warming and tropospheric
cooling. Results are for the deep Tropics (20°N to 20°S), and are more fully described in Santer et al.
(2005).
FIG. 6. Evolution of the Atlantic MOC as defined by
the maximum overturning at 24°N for the period
1900–2100 using 21 realizations of the response to
the A1B emissions scenario from nine AOGCMs. The
MOC simulations with a skill score larger than one are
solid lines; those from models with a smaller skill score
are dashed. The weighted ensemble mean is shown by
the thick black curve together with the weighted std
dev (thin black lines) . Observational estimates of the
circulation at 24°N [15.75 ± 1.6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s–1);
Ganachaud and Wunsch 2000 ; Lumpkin and Speer
2003] at the end of the last centur y are shown as the
red cross centered at year 1989. (top) The weighted
(solid) and unweighted (dashed) std devs (from
Schmittner et al. 2005).
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SEPTEMBER 2007AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |
observed El Niño phenomena. In another variation
on that technique, Schmittner et al. (2005) studied
possible future changes of the ocean meridional over-
turning circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic by more
heavily weighting models that accurately simulated
certain hydrographic properties and observation-
based circulation estimates (Fig. 6). Using 28 simula-
tions from 9 different AOGCMs from the multimodel
dataset, S chm itt ner et a l. (2005) were able to come u p
with a best estimate of projected MOC behavior using
the weighted model results. Their results indicate a
gradual projected reduction in the amplitude of the
MOC over the course of the twenty-first century
for the A1B emission scenario, finally amounting
to a weakening of 25% (±25%) by the year 2100. No
model shows a sudden shutdown of the MOC during
the twenty-first century. These results agree with an
assessment of a larger number of models from the
WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset in the IPCC AR4
(Meehl et al. 2007).
As noted above, modeling groups were asked to
calculate and submit 10 indexes of extreme weather
and climate events outlined by Frich et al. (2002).
Five of the indexes related to temperature, and five
to precipitation. In all, nine of the modeling groups
completed those calculations. Tebaldi et al. (2006)
analyzed results from those data, and Fig. 7 shows
results from two of the precipitation indices in terms
of global averages and geographical changes for the
end of the twenty-first century for the A1B scenario
from nine models. Precipitation intensity increases
almost everywhere (for a given event more precipita-
tion occurs in the future), but dry days (number of
days in between precipitation events) also increase
in some areas. This seems counterintuitive, but in
some regions, particularly where circulation and
other climate changes are associated with reduced
average precipitation (e.g., Meehl et al. 2005a), there
is a longer time period between precipitation events,
but when it does rain it rains harder.
Finally, the sheer number of AOGCMs contrib-
uting to the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset has
allowed some of the f irst calculations of probabilistic
climate change information. For example, using
the techniques outlined in Furrer et al. (2007b),
Figs. 8a and 8b from Furrer et al. (2007a) show, for
21 models from the multimodel dataset for the A1B
scenario, seasonal [December–February (DJF) and
June–August (JJA)] values of temperature increases
with an 80% chance of occurrence by the end of the
twenty-first century. Conversely, Figs. 8c and 8d
show contours of probabilities of the occurrence of at
least a 2°C warming for the two seasons. The results
in Fig. 8 were obtained using a technique employed
in Furrer et al. (2007a) wherein probability density
func tions (PDFs) of temperat ure cha nge at each grid
point are computed from the multimodel dataset.
This is done by first calculating the temperature
differences from each member of the multimodel
ensemble, averaged for A1B for 2080–99 minus
1980–99 for DJF and JJA, and regressing those
differences upon basis functions, that is, a series of
fields that are chosen as starting points to explain
the possible common large-scale patterns of the
climate change signal. A statistical model is then
formulated through a hierarchical Bayes framework,
and a Markov chain Monte Carlo calculation then
estimates the true coefficients of the regression and
the uncertainty around them, plus estimates of the
errors.
Weighting by the relative agreement among the
models [such as that used in another technique that
produces probabilistic climate change information
by region by Tebaldi et al. (2004)] is not assumed in
this method. By recombining the coefficients with
the basis functions, an estimate is derived of the true
FIG. 7. Changes in extremes based on multimodel simulations from nine global coupled climate mod-
els, from Tebaldi et al. (2006). (a) Globally averaged changes in precipitation intensity (defined as the
annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days) for a low (B1), middle (A1B), and high
(A2) forcing scenarios. (b) Changes of spatial patterns of precipitation intensity based on simulations
between two 20-yr means (2080–99 minus 1980–99) for the A1B scenario. (c) Globally averaged changes
in dry days (defined as the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days). (d) Changes of spatial
patterns of dry days based on simulations between two 20-yr means (2080 –99 minus 1980–99) for the
A1B scenario. Solid lines in (a) and (c) are the 10-yr smoothed multimodel ensemble means; the envelope
indicates the ensemble mean standard deviation. Stippling in (b) and (d) denote areas where at least 5
of the 9 models concur in determining that the change is statistically significant. Extremes indices are
calculated following Frich et al. (2002) and are shown for land points only. Each model’s time series has
been centered around its 1980–99 average and normalized (rescaled) by its std dev computed (after
detrending) over the period 1960–2099 ; then the models were aggregated into an ensemble average,
both at the global average and at the grid-box level (units are std devs).
1392 SEPTEMBER 2007
|
climate change field and of the uncertainty around
it. Probability density functions of the temperature
change are then derived for each grid point over the
entire globe, and represent the joint probability of a
given warming at each grid point.
This and the other studies shown above are only
a few examples of the many more published results
from the analyses of the multimodel dataset that
can be seen online at www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/
subproject_publications.php.
CONCLUSIONS. An unprecedented interna-
tional effort to run a coordinated set of twentieth- and
twenty-first-century climate simulations, as well as
several climate change commitment experiments, was
organized by the WCRP/CLIVAR WGCM for assess-
ment in the IPCC AR4. Model data were collected,
archived, and made available to the international
climate science community by PCMDI. This is the
first time such a large set of AOGCM climate change
simulations has been made openly available for
analysis. As such, it represents a new era in climate
science research whereby researchers and students can
obtain permission to access and analyze the AOGCM
data. Such an open process has allowed hundreds
of scientists from around the world, many students,
FIG. 8. Probabilistic climate change results from 21 AOGCMs, 2080–99 compared to 1980–99, for the A1B
scenario, converted to a common 5° lat–lon grid: (a) DJF and (b) JJA values of temperature increase with an
80% chance of occurrence by the end of the twenty-first century. Also shown are contours of probabilities of
the occurrence of at least a 2°C warming for (c) DJF and (d) JJA (Furrer et al. 2007a).
1393
SEPTEMBER 2007AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |
and researchers from developing countries, who had
never before had such an opportunity, to analyze the
model data and make significant contributions not
only to the IPCC AR4, but to human knowledge of the
workings of climate variability and climate change.
This unique and valuable multimodel dataset will be
maintained at PCMDI and overseen by the WGCM
Climate Simulation Panel for at least the next several
years. It will serve as a resource for climate science
that promises to change the way students, developing
country scientists, and experienced climate scientists
perform analyses and learn about the climate system.
For instructions regarding how to obtain access the
multimodel dataset, see www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/
about_ipcc.php.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We acknowled ge the
internat ional modeling groups for providing their data for
analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and
Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving
the model data, the WCRP/CLIVAR Working Group on
Coupled Models (WGCM), a nd their Coupled Model Inter-
compari son Project (CMIP) and Cl imate Simulation Pa nels
for organi zing the model data a nalysis act ivity, and the IPC C
WG1 TSU for technical support. The CMI P3 Mult i-Model
Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laborator y
is supported by the Office of Science, U.S. Department
of Energy. Portions of this study were supported by the
Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy,
Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC02-97ER62402, and
the National Science Foundation. The National Center
for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National
Science Foundation.
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