The Impact of Alternative Lookback Periods and Sources of Information on Charlson Comorbidity Adjustment in Medicare Claims

University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States
Medical Care (Impact Factor: 3.23). 12/1999; 37(11):1128-39. DOI: 10.1097/00005650-199911000-00005
Source: PubMed


The Charlson Score is a particularly popular form of comorbidity adjustment in claims data analysis. However, the effects of certain implementation decisions have not been empirically examined.
To determine the effects of alternative data sources and lookback periods on the performance of Charlson scores in the prediction of mortality following hospitalization.
A representative sample of 1,387 elderly patients hospitalized in 1993, drawn from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS). Three years of linked Medicare claims and survey instruments were available for all patients, as was 2-year mortality follow-up.
Nested Cox regression and comparisons of areas under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate ability to predict mortality.
Compared with a 1-year lookback involving solely inpatient claims, statistically and empirically significant improvements in the prediction of mortality are obtained by incorporating alternative sources of data (particularly 2 years of inpatient data and 1 year of outpatient and auxiliary claims), but only if indices derived from distinct sources of data are entered into the regression distinctly. The area under the ROC curve for 1-year mortality predication increases from 0.702 to 0.741 (P = 0.002). Furthermore, these improvements in explanatory power obtained whether one also controls for Charlson scores based on self-reported health history and/or secondary diagnoses from the claim for the index hospitalization itself. Finally, claims-based comorbidity adjustment performs comparably to survey-derived adjustment, with areas under the ROC curve of 0.702 and 0.704, respectively.
The widespread practice of comorbidity adjustment in pre-existing administrative data sources can be improved by taking more complete advantage of existing administrative data sources.

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    • "Two additional studies have compared chart review vs. administrative data-derived CCIs [48] [49]. One study, evaluating the Quan CCI, found that kappa agreement ranged greatly (from 0.02 to 0.47) according to the comorbidity identified [44]. Another study [49], evaluating a study-specific administrative data CCI using ICD-10 codes, found CCI scores derived from the two sources to be well correlated (r 5 0.88, P ! "
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    • "The other method involves linking multiple hospitalisation records belonging to the same patient and determining whether a smoking diagnosis is present on any of these records. This is referred to as using a lookback period [7], with lookback periods of 1 year [8] and 5 years [9]–[11] variously used to identify smoking. "
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    • "Specificity for these conditions is also very high and ranges from 99 percent to 100 percent (Romano and Mark 1994). The properties of claims in the more global assessment of overall morbidity burden have also been validated (Zhang, Iwashyna, and Christakis 1999). For certain results, there is one further proviso, namely, that neither member of the couple be a member of a staff-model HMO. "
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