Sala, O. E. et al. Global biodiversity scenarios for the Year 2100. Science

Department of Ecology and Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas vinculadas a la Agricultura, Faculty of Agronomy, University of Buenos Aires, Avenida San Martín 4453, Buenos Aires 1417, Argentina.
Science (Impact Factor: 33.61). 04/2000; 287(5459):1770-4. DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5459.1770
Source: PubMed


Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon
dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified
a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major
sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate
change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic
exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional
change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems
are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes
in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent
one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

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    • "However , tropical Asia suffers serious forest loss and fragmentation due to land use and land cover changes, e.g., plantations displacing natural forests (Aziz et al. 2010; Sodhi et al. 2010). Natural vegetation cover loss, forest fragmentation, and associated land-use and land-cover changes are the main processes causing global environmental change (Turner et al. 1995) and are responsible for the loss of biodiversity worldwide (Soule 1991; Sala et al. 2000). Forest fragmentation has become increasing important for global change researches (Gibbs et al. 2010). "
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    ABSTRACT: Hainan, the largest tropical island in China,belongs to the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. The Changhua watershed is a center of endemism for plants and birds and the cradle of Hainan’s main rivers. However, this area has experienced recent and ongoing deforestation and habitat fragmentation. To quantify habitat loss and fragmentation of natural forests, as well as the land-cover changes in the Changhua watershed, we analyzed Landsat images obtained in 1988, 1995, and 2005. Land-cover dynamics analysis showed that natural forests increased in area (97,909 to 104,023 ha) from 1988 to 1995 but decreased rapidly to 76,306 ha over the next decade. Rubber plantations increased steadily throughout the study period while pulp plantations rapidly expanded after 1995. Similar patterns of land coverchange were observed in protected areas, indicating a lack of enforcement. Natural forests conversion to rubber and pulp plantations has a general negative effect on biodiversity, primarily through habitat fragmentation. The fragmentation analysis showed that natural forests area was reduced and patch number increased, while patch size and connectivity decreased. These land cover changes threatened local biodiversity, especially island endemic species. Both natural forests losses and fragmentation should be stopped by strict enforcement to prevent further damage. Preserving the remaining natural forests and enforcing the status of protected areas should be a management priority to maximize the watershed’s biodiversity conservation value.
    Full-text · Article · Nov 2015 · Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
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    • "This decline is particularly marked in lakes that suffer from multiple human disturbances such as habitat fragmentation and loss, hydrologic alteration, climate change, overexploitation and pollution that are responsible from a marked extinction trend (Dudgeon et al., 2006; Sala et al., 2000). In addition to extinctions, human-induced exotic species introductions are also listed as one of the most detrimental anthropogenic activities (Dudgeon et al., 2006; Sala et al., 2000). Exotic species can threaten aquatic biodiversity and influence ecological process (Clarkson et al., 2005; Jeschke et al., 2014; Volta et al., 2013). "
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    ABSTRACT: The introduction of exotic species and the extirpation of native species that occurred during the past two centuries have strongly modified the structure of most plant and animal assemblages across the globe. Such a biotic change is particularly marked in isolated environments such as islands or isolated lakes. Most studies reported drastic changes between before and after human disturbances, but the dynamics of change in assemblage structure through the invasion and extirpation processes are rarely reported. Here we measured the aquatic ecosystem degradation through exotic species introduction and native species extirpation experienced by Lake Erhai (China) during the last 50 years using structural, functional and taxonomic distinctness biodiversity indices. Structural diversity (species richness) did not varied monotonically along the temporal gradient, due to an opposite trend between exotic species increase and a concomitant decline of native species richness. Functional diversity displayed unclear ascending trends driven by the introduction of exotic species having distinct functional traits than natives. Taxonomic distinctness indices exhibited an increase of the average taxonomic distinctness (Δ+), but a decrease of the variation in taxonomic distinctness (Λ+) through time. Structural, functional and distinctness indices providing complementary information on ecosystem degradation, we here proposed a new multifaceted degradation index integrating these three facets of biodiversity. Such an index provided an accurate representation of the faunistic changes experienced by Lake Erhai and might constitute a comprehensive way to measure ecosystem degradation through exotic fish species introductions and native fish species extirpations.
    Full-text · Article · Nov 2015 · Ecological Indicators
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    • "Invasive alien species are considered to be one of the greatest current threats to natural systems and species diversity (Sala et al. 2000). It's estimated that they increasingly cost the European Union (EU) more than 12 billion euros per year, resulting in regulation that came into force on 1 January 2015 (Sundseth 2014). "

    Full-text · Dataset · Aug 2015
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