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Abstract
This article considers the likely trends in population size, age structure and potential support ratios in the United Kingdom over the coming century. The extent to which these trends could be modified by changes in fertility or migration levels is examined. The findings of a recent United Nations report on 'Replacement Migration' are also considered in the light of the Government Actuary's official population projections for the United Kingdom' together with new projection scenarios prepared specially for this article.
... The level of replacement migration in the UN study required to maintain the support ratio would generate unimaginably high immigration. In the United Kingdom, the average annual inflow of 1.2 million immigrants 'required' for this purpose would double the population in 50 years, and then more than double it again by the end of the century (Shaw 2001) and so on ad infinitum. Thus, the UK population would exceed 100 million even by 2030, 200 million by 2070 and 300 million by 2090. ...
... To explore these demographic prospects with respect to the United Kingdom, a number of projections have been made by the UK GAD over the unusually long range of 100 years, up to 2001 (Shaw 2001;Coleman 2000). These have repeated the UN 'targets' exercise, using more realistic assumptions. ...
... Lond. B (2002) fertility thereby determine annual 'requirements' for immigrants (see Shaw 2001). The difficult stop-go immigration policy required to achieve this end in practice was first shown more than a decade ago (Blanchet 1989), and those conclusions have stood the test of time. ...
This paper considers international migration in the context of population ageing. In many Western countries, the search for appropriate responses to manage future population ageing and population decline has directed attention to international migration. It seems reasonable to believe that international migrants, mostly of young working age, can supply population deficits created by low birth rates, protect European society and economy from the economic costs of elderly dependency, and provide a workforce to care for the elderly. Particular prominence has been given to this option through the publicity attendant on a report from the UN Population Division in 2000 on 'replacement migration', which has been widely reported and widely misunderstood. Although immigration can prevent population decline, it is already well known that it can only prevent population ageing at unprecedented, unsustainable and increasing levels of inflow, which would generate rapid population growth and eventually displace the original population from its majority position. This paper reviews these arguments in the context of the causes and inevitability of population ageing, with examples mostly based on UK data. It discusses various options available in response to population ageing through workforce, productivity, pensions reform and other means. It concludes that there can be no 'solution' to population ageing, which is to a considerable degree unavoidable. However, if the demographic regime of the United Kingdom continues to be relatively benign, future population ageing can be managed with tolerable inconvenience without recourse to increased immigration for 'demographic' purposes. At present (2001), net immigration to the United Kingdom is already running at record levels and is now the main engine behind UK population and household growth. By itself, population stabilization, or even mild reduction, is probably to be welcomed in the United Kingdom, although the issue has attracted little attention since the 1970s.
... In less than 100 years the UK population increased by 51% (Hicks & Allen, 1999). It is also noted that the UK population is growing older (Hicks and Allen 1999;Shaw 2001;Gomes & Higginson 2008). During 1901 the proportion of the population over 50 was just 15%; in 1951 it increased to 25% and 31% by 1991 (Shaw, 2001). ...
... It is also noted that the UK population is growing older (Hicks and Allen 1999;Shaw 2001;Gomes & Higginson 2008). During 1901 the proportion of the population over 50 was just 15%; in 1951 it increased to 25% and 31% by 1991 (Shaw, 2001). ...
This research assessed the concept of future-proofing (FP) as a proactive initiative for enterprise asset management is an urgent need against uncertainty, particularly in healthcare due to unforeseeable demographic shifts and rapid advances in medical technology. Building information modelling (BIM) is a data-driven initiative but a rigorous analysis will indicate that a synergy exists. A multiphase design methodology was adopted to cover as much breadth and depth around the synergies that exist between future-proofing and BIM both in terms of delivery (supply chain) and in an enterprise context (organisational structures). In the first phase, an exploratory survey was conducted. The exploratory data were gathered to include responses of industry experts. The findings provide valuable insights regarding the integration of flexibility and design standardisation and whether this integration can improve change-readiness in designing future-proof healthcare facilities. Then, a first round of primary and secondary case study data were gathered from a major public asset owner organisation. The findings focused on the governance of BIM and FP in an enterprise context. As such three agendas emerged, namely government, strategic management and, due to the opportunities that BIM brings, information management. Then, a second round of primary qualitative data were collected and a series of interviews were conducted. The interviews targeted the opinion of leading industry experts across all phases of a project. At this phase the aim was to develop a classification ontology of the interactions between FP and BIM during project delivery. Finally, the findings were triangulated. As such, a reference model was developed, concentrating on the functional and organisational aspects of the core business of a service organisation. Finally, the three types of findings were connected to give a deployment plan for future-proofing asset management taking into account adoption of innovation which service providers can use to manage their assets across an enterprise.
... This 26 percent figure assumes considerable recovery in both birth rates and survival in the UN projections, optimistic assumptions not shared in those prepared by Andreev et al. (1997). In the case of Britain, official national projections, which take actual, higher migration into account, reach more favorable conclusions than the United Nations (Coleman 2000;Shaw 2001), but UN data will be used here for the sake of consistency. ...
... But even with replacement-level fertility, PSR in Europe would still fall from about 4 today to under 3 in 2050. To preserve current PSR, the TFR would need to rise to about 3.5, thereby increasing population size although less spectacularly than the immigration option would do (Calot and Sardon 1999;Shaw 2001). There are, therefore, no demographic solutions to population aging, although both processes can ameliorate it. ...
... The average of the experts' assessment of net migration in 2030 was 199,000, slightly higher than the GAD 190,000. But the estimates ranged between 100,000 and 250,000 (Shaw, 2008). Efforts should concentrate on projecting the separate and often unconnected streams that constitute overall migration. ...
... The level of 'replacement migration' in the UN (2000) study required to maintain the UK support ratio at the present level of 4.15 to mid-century would need an average annual inflow of 1.2m immigrants. According to calculations by GAD, the UK population would accordingly reach 100m by 2030, 200m by 2070, 300m by 2090, and so on ad infinitum (see Shaw, 2001). The general answer to these questions has been known for many years, both in theory and from empirical studies (Lesthaeghe et al., 1988;Wattelar and Roumans, 1988;Blanchet, 1989;Calot, 1983;Kuijsten, 1995;van Imhoff and Keilman, 1996). ...
This article is concerned with the economic effects of immigration. The emphasis is on Britain, but extensive material is also provided on other countries. Since 1997 a new British immigration policy has displaced previous policy aims, which were focused on minimizing settlement. Large-scale immigration is now seen as essential for Britain's economic well-being, and measures have been introduced to increase inflows. The benefits claimed include fiscal advantages, increased prosperity, a ready supply of labor, and improvements to the age structure. Fears that large-scale immigration might damage the interests of unskilled workers are discounted. This article examines these claims. It concludes that the economic consequences of large-scale immigration are mostly minor, negative, or transient, that the interests of more vulnerable sections of the domestic population may well be damaged, and that any economic benefits are unlikely to bear comparison with immigration's probable substantial and permanent demographic and environmental impact. Our claims are in line with those from other developed countries. Copyright 2004 The Population Council, Inc..
... Looking to the future, the UK has an ageing population (Shaw, 2001) and this is transforming the ratio of older adults to those in middle age; in 1984, 15% of the United Kingdom population was aged over 65. By 2009, this had risen to 16%, and by 2034 is expected to reach 23% (ONS, 2010). ...
This review is the first to combine the findings of commercial reports and academic research into the motivations of sports volunteers with general theory understanding volunteers and volunteering. This provides a broader understanding of volunteering in sport. It provides a useful resource for anyone in the planning, management and delivery of sports volunteering and a stepping stone for further research. Volunteering and sports participation are both extremely popular activities for English adults. Volunteering in support of sports teams, clubs and other organisations is one of the most commonly undertaken types of volunteering in England. Within 'sports volunteering' exists an extremely wide range of roles — coach, captain, secretary, chairman, treasurer, administrator, fundraiser, washing the kit, transporting children, and a range of other more niche and sport-specific activities. Volunteering is best understood as a process through which volunteers move, not necessarily in a linear or a constant way, over the course of their lives. This variation over time can be understood as a consequence of particular values, circumstances and experience. Similarly, people move through different types of sports participation in response to personal circumstances and experience. The processes of moving though volunteering in sport and participating in sport run in parallel because the two are usually connected. The sport volunteering roles identified above — which involve different demands of time and skills — are motivated by different factors at different stages of people's lives. Sports volunteering and participation can be understood as a consequence of different forms of social capital. Thus promoting volunteering is best understand as facilitating a developmental progression through roles, rather than as targeting market segments with particular potential. Theory helps us understand changes in the nature of volunteering over people's lives. A distinction between unpaid work, activism and serious leisure as different forms of volunteering can be applied to the different roles that people take within sports. For young people with professional aspirations, either within sport or more broadly, volunteering as unpaid work enables them to develop skills and demonstrate competence which will be of economic value to them. For slightly older volunteers, volunteering offers the opportunity to support the sport they love and to give back to their team or club or to support their children's interests — a form of mutual aid or 'activism'. For older volunteers, who may have stopped participating in the sport 'on the field' but want to stay involved, taking on new roles offers the opportunity to explore new opportunities and learn new skills — a form of 'serious leisure'. Each of these different roles has different rewards and motivations. v Motvatons of Sport Volunteers n England This review of literature on sports volunteering applies these insights. The review, along with consultation with key individuals across the world, identified the following themes which structure this report: • Descriptive statistics on volunteers, including who volunteers in sport, what they do and how the nature of sports volunteering changes between roles.
... Since the European populations started to decline, there have been many studies about the role that immigration can play to reverse or just slow this process. Some researchers showed that population size could only be maintained by the possible replacement of the original population by the immigrant one (Steinmann and Jaeger, 2000;Coleman, 2000;Shaw, 2001). However, some previous work (among the others Lestheaghe, Page and Surkyn, 1988;Wattelaar and Roumans, 1996;van Imhoff and Keilman, 1996) had already shown that only extensive and increasing levels of immigration could preserve the age structures and the potential support ratios of developed populations, necessitating the population to grow to an exceptional size, almost without limit (Coleman and Rowthorn, 2004, p. 594). ...
... General Registrar forScotland 2004), though these figures remain well below the rate at which the population would replace itself. In addition to this, age-specific mortality amongst those aged 75 years and over has shown considerable decline over the past two decades(GROS 2004).Shaw (2001) makes various projections for the United Kingdom as a whole, and concludes that an ageing population is now inevitable. Projections suggest that over the next 25 years, the proportion of the Scottish population over 75 years of age will increase by 41 percent, whilst those under 15 years will decline by 19 percent(GROS 2002). Thus, at t ...
... The purpose of this work was to explore the needs of older users of e-mail in terms of the types of user interface which they require. The number of older people in society is growing as significant demographic changes occur [15]. In an inclusive society, it is essential that older people should be able to access and use new electronic communication media, including internet applications such as e-mail. ...
The work introduced here concerns the user interface requirements of older users of e-mail. The main goal is to understand better the e-mail needs of older people, and to form a foundation for further developments in simplified and rationalised e-mail interfaces. The approach involved working closely with older computer users to establish their essential requirements, attempting thus to reduce complication and excess functionality in the interface, with the intention that users should find the system easy to learn and use. Requirements were established through interviews and consultation, and once the necessary functionality was identified, prototype interfaces were developed from which older volunteers selected preferred forms. A simulated e-mail system was then built around these preferred forms. Trials with older participants indicated that the design was popular, and gave insights and outcomes, which helped form the agenda for a major project on e-mail for older people
... The level of 'replacement migration' in the UN (2000) study required to maintain the UK support ratio at the present level of 4.15 to mid-century would need an average annual net inflow of 1.2m immigrants. According to calculations by GAD, the UK population would accordingly reach 100m by 2030, 200m by 2070, 300m by 2090, and so on ad infinitum (see Shaw, 2001). ...
It is well documented that women have generally higher morbidity rates than men. In line with this women are also more absent from work due to sickness. This paper considers one popular explanation of the morbidity difference in general and of the difference in sickness absence in particular, viz. that women to a greater extent than men are exposed to the 'double burden' of combining paid work with family obligations. We discuss theories of role overload and role conflict, which both assume that the combination of multiple roles may have negative health effects, as well theories of role enhancement, which assume positive health effects of multiple roles. Using two large Norwegian data sets, the relationship between the number of and the age of children on the one hand and sickness absence on the other is examined separately for men and women and for a number of theoretically interesting subpopulations of women defined in terms of marital status (also taking account of unmarried cohabitation), level of education, and working hours. Generally speaking the association between children and sickness absence is weak, particularly for married people of both genders. To the extent that married persons with children are more absent than married persons without children, this is largely due to respiratory conditions. The relationship between children and sickness absence is somewhat stronger for single, never married mothers, but not for single mothers who have been previously married or for women living in unmarried cohabitation. The findings thus provide little support for either role overload/conflict or role enhancement theories. The possibility that these effects are both present and counterbalancing each other or that they are confounded with uncontrolled selection effects can not, however, be ruled out.
... One of the explanations for the debate on long-term care funding is the projected continuing growth in the numbers of older people. The Government Actuary's Department (GAD) projects that the number of people in the UK aged 65 and over will rise from 9.3 million in 2000 to 15.9 million in 2051, an increase of 71 per cent (Shaw 2001). The number of very elderly people (aged 85 and over) will rise even more rapidly, from around 1.2 million today to around 3.2 million in fifty years' time. ...
The long-term care funding system continues to attract much debate in the UK. We produce projections of state and private long-term care expenditure and analyse the distributional impact of state-financed care, through innovative linking of macro- and micro-simulation models. Variant assumptions about life expectancy, dependency and care costs are examined and the impact of universal state-financed (‘free’) personal care, based on need but not ability to pay, is investigated. We find that future long-term care expenditure is subject to considerable uncertainty and is particularly sensitive to assumed future trends in real input costs. On a central set of assumptions, free personal care would, by 2051, increase public spending on long-term care from 1.1 per cent of GDP to 1.3 per cent, or more if it generated an increase in demand. Among the care-home population aged 85 or over, the immediate beneficiaries of free personal care would be those with relatively high incomes.
The purpose of this final empirical chapter is to examine the administrative context and the policymaking process itself as an explanation for policy change. The new institutionalist approach claims it is apolitical institutions that form immigration policy according to the interests of the state. Through processes of normalisation and socialisation, certain ideas, objectives and policy framings become embedded in these institutions. The chapter adopts an instituionalist lens by examining departmental cultures, policy framings and institutional changes to policymaking practices and assesses whether such institutional changes can explain the policy shift. The chapter takes a disaggregated view of the state and particularly focuses on how the ideas of the modernised Labour Party were filtered through departmental agendas and changes to policymaking practices.
This chapter explores changes in the age structure of the UK population over the last three decades. The ways in which the age profile of the population might change in the future are also discussed. Mid-year population estimates for 2004 are compared with those for selected years back to 1971, using changes in the median age and in the population age structure. Country patterns within the UK are examined, and this chapter includes a comparison with changes that have occurred in the age structure of Japan, where the population is ageing rapidly. As well as age distribution, this chapter analyses the changing distribution of the UK population by legal marital status.
Population aging is the 21st century's dominant demographic phenomenon. Declining fertility, increasing longevity, and the progression of large-sized cohorts to the older ages are causing elder shares to rise throughout the world. The phenomenon of population aging, which is unprecedented in human history, brings with it sweeping changes in population needs and capacities, with potentially significant implications for employment, savings, consumption, economic growth, asset values, and fiscal balance. This chapter provides a broad overview of the global demography of aging. It reviews patterns, trends, and projections involving various indicators of population aging and their demographic antecedents and sequelae. The chapter also reviews theories economists use to explain the behavioral changes driving the most prominent demographic shifts. Finally, it discusses the changing nature of aging, the future of longevity, and associated policy implications, highlighting some key research issues that require further examination.
This comprehensive text focuses on the social contexts of ageing, looking at the diversity of ageing and older people, and at different factors that are important to experiences of old age and ageing. It includes key chapters on: theoretical and methodological bases for the study of ageing demographic context of the 'ageing' population health and illness family and social networks formal and informal care and other services for older people. Providing an invaluable introduction to the major issues involved in the study of ageing, this book is essential reading for students of sociology, gerontology, social policy, health and social care, and professionals working with older people.
IntroductionThe Biopsychosocial ModelReproductive BehaviourInfertilityMiscarriage and AbortionPregnancy and the PuerperiumResearch in Reproductive Health PsychologyConclusion
References
In response to the aging and decline of Europe's population, some have suggested that mass immigration is a solution to the problems that these trends present. This article describes the European migration debate; considers data pertinent to European demography and immigration; and recommends reform of the welfare state as a better long-term strategy by which to address the aging and decline of Europe's population.
This paper presents a comparative analysis of the likely future effects of immigration on the ethnic or foreign-origin composition of the developed world, using projections from various European countries, with new projections for the United Kingdom. On conservative assumptions, the foreign-origin proportions are projected to rise to between about 20% and 30% by mid-century with almost linear rates of change. Variant migration assumptions are more important than fertility assumptions in determining this outcome. Interethnic unions, incorporated only rarely in such projections, moderate the growth of immigrant populations of immigrant origin while generating complex rapidly growing heterogeneous mixed origin populations which may eventually defy categorisation. Given the dependence of this ethnic change upon immigration, it is not inevitable, but most official projections show no end to the process up to mid-century. Further continuation of ethnic transformation into the longer term might be regarded as a 'third demographic transition'.
Aims To measure the criterion validity of the AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorders Screening Test) and SMAST-G (Short Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test-Geriatric Version) in older people in primary care against Royal College of Psychiatrists' criteria for 'at risk' drinking, and to compare older 'at risk' drinkers in primary care with normal drinkers.Method Surgery attendees in primary care in South East London aged over 65 years completed a questionnaire including the AUDIT and SMAST-G, and questions about alcohol consumption. Age, sex, marital status and ethnicity were recorded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was carried out on the AUDIT and SMAST-G questionnaires against drinking in excess of Royal College guidelines. Those drinking above and below Royal College guidelines were compared.Results A total of 500 participants completed questionnaires; 33 (6.6%) admitted drinking above Royal College guidelines: 23 (4.6%) were AUDIT positive and 52 (10.4%) SMAST-G positive. 'At risk' drinking was associated with being male, younger and not being widowed. The area under the curves was 0.96 for the AUDIT and 0.83 for the SMAST-G, indicating significantly better criterion validity for the former. Best cut-off points for men (5/6) and women (3/4) were lower than for younger people.Conclusions The AUDIT performed significantly better than the SMAST-G against UK Royal College of Psychiatrists' guidelines on safe levels of alcohol consumption in this sample of 500 primary care attendees aged over 65 years. Although the AUDIT was not designed specifically as a screening questionnaire for 'at risk' drinking in older people, our study suggests that it performs well in older adult populations using different cut-off points for men and women.
A multiprofessional research project examined in detail the factors that affect the adaptability of existing housing and explored issues relating to the introduction of assistive technology into the existing homes of older people in order to provide them with the opportunity to ‘stay put’. The research reported here investigated the feasibility of adapting the existing stock of social housing and the resulting costs and outcomes of introducing assistive technology.
This paper outlines that part of the project that examined in detail the adaptability of 82 properties representing a variety of property types to accommodate the needs of seven notional users, characterising the most common range of impairments of older people. The factors that affect a property's adaptability include property type and specific design and construction features. The implications for housing providers, clients and occupational therapists are discussed.
The research identified the unique expertise of occupational therapists, spanning the areas of housing, older people and assistive technology, and it introduced methods and tools that can help to determine best housing outcomes as well as cost implications. It is crucial that the profession is proactive in contributing to the development of housing policies that address the needs of an ageing population effectively.
This article considers the range of needs which would be met by having available projections of the population by ethnic group, and, in particular, the rôle these projections would usefully play in informing current and future policy issues. The article first identifies and lists the main uses, and potential users, of such projections and gives an appraisal of the likely applications in each context. Some of the challenges involved in using the main datasources--the census and surveys--for making such projections are then addressed; the article considers what is measured by asking questions on ethnicity, and discusses the implications of ethnicity being self-assessed--two important considerations which affect the potential usefulness of ethnic projections. Finally, details are given of a co-operative project involving a multi-disciplinary team of academic experts to explore the feasibility of making such projections.
There are increasing concerns about the future availability of informal care for older people, particularly care by their children. This article explores past trends in the provision of informal care by children/children-in-law to their older parents/parents-in-law between 1985 and 1995 in Great Britain, using successive General Household Survey data. The article suggests that, during this period, there was a decline in co-resident intergenerational care and that this was associated with a decline in highly intensive intergenerational care. The article explores possible factors underlying these trends, in particular, demographic changes and changes in patterns of formal care for older people.
Men and women in Great Britain are increasingly involved in a variety of economic and social roles, particularly during their mid-life period. This article examines the changes in role occupancy across four birth cohorts passing throughout mid-life over the period 1985-2000. Data from the General Household Survey is used to investigate the occupancy of four key roles: 'partner', 'parent', 'carer' and 'paid worker', analyzing separate and multiple role occupancies and level of commitment to a particular role. The implications of the findings for health and employment policies is also discussed.
Changes in the ages at which women give birth to their children mean that fertility measured at a particular point in time (period) may not be a good representation of the ultimate fertility of those women. The common measure of period fertility is the total fertility rate, which in 2001 has fallen to the lowest level since records began in England and Wales. This article presents various methods that have been proposed to adjust period fertility data to take account of changes in the timing of childbearing, applied to England and Wales data. The article concludes that while these adjustment methods provide useful insights, for example, that the total fertility rate has underestimated period quantum fertility since the 1970s, the measures produced are difficult to interpret. This is in part because the concept they are trying to measure, period quantum is itself imprecise. The adjustments do not necessarily provide a reliable indicator of underlying cohort fertility.
Interest has been growing steadily in understanding the impact of the inherent uncertainty in the national population projections. As a result, the Government Acturay's Department has recently produced the most extensive set of official variant projections ever published in the United Kingdom. These include 'standard' variants based on alternative high and low assumptions for future fertility, life expectancy and net migration and also a number of 'special case scenarios.' All of these variants have been produced at both UK and individual country level. This article describes the full range of variant projections available from the 2000-based national projections and summaries some of the key results for both the UK and the individual countries.
The ONS produces mid-year population estimates annually, which are based on updating from the most recent census. Therefore, whenever results become available from a census, a new base is created for the population estimates. This has implications for historic series, which need to be revised to be consistent with both the past and the most recent census. This article describes the methodology that will be used for this rebasing of the mid-year population estimates following the availability of results from the 2001 Census. Census results also provide a unique opportunity to assess the accuracy of the population estimates that are based on the previous census and this article also describes the approach that will be taken to the assessment of accuracy.
This article describes new 2001-based national population projections which were carried out following the publication in September 2002 of the first results of the 2001 Census. These "interim" projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, take preliminary account of the results of the Census which showed that the base population used in previous projections was overestimated. The interim projections also incorporate a reduced assumption of net international migration to the United Kingdom, informed by the first results of the 2001 Census and taking account of more recent migration information. The population of the United Kingdom is now projected to increase from an estimated 58.8 million in 2001 to reach 63.2 million by 2026. The projected population at 2026 is about 1.8 million (2.8 per cent) lower than in the previous (2000-based) projections.
Small area analysis of sociodemographic change over time is often impeded by the changing configuration of census zones for each decennial UK census. Approaches for matching zone configurations exist, but these typically require population estimation techniques, which inevitably involve some error. Because of the postcode-based geographical zoning system used in Scottish censuses, it is possible to create a local-area geography which is consistent for recent censuses. Here we present a methodology used to create three sets of consistent areas through time (CATTs) that can be used for analysing comparable small area data output from the 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.
Replacement fertility is a term commonly used by demographers when referring to levels of childbearing and yet is rarely explained. It is normally presented as being around 2.1 children per woman. Continued below replacement fertility in developed countries and fertility falling in developing countries has given the concept of replacement fertility a higher profile. This article explains how replacement level is calculated and explores the concept further. Past replacement fertility levels are calculated for England and Wales. A possible alternative definition of replacement is also presented. Simple projection scenarios are used to show the effect on population of below replacement fertility, and also of postponement of fertility. The importance and implications of below replacement fertility are discussed.
This article is an update of a similar article published in Population Trends 104 and complements the article on European-wide issues in population statistics, published in Population Trends 118. The main areas of demography are covered, namely population change, population composition, fertility and mortality. Eurostat are currently working on a new set of population projections which should be available shortly, but were not completed when this article was drafted.
For women, delayed conception and recurrent pregnant loss are just a few of the health implications associated with a caffeine-rich diet (Mol. Hum. Reprod., 11, 357). At present there is a deficit of prospective research measuring current habitual intakes of caffeine in UK women. The purpose of the current study was to collect up-to-date baseline data to assess caffeine intake and knowledge in a group of women (aged 16-45 years).
Seventy Caucasian subjects (mean age 30.4 +/- 8.7 years) were recruited from business offices within the Manchester area. Each participant completed a 3-day food diary and lifestyle questionnaire.
The mean intake of caffeine was 173.95 mg day(-1) (+/-128.39 mg day(-1)). Eighteen per cent of subjects exceeded caffeine guidelines and consumed 300 mg caffeine or more each day. Subjects consuming over 300 mg day(-1) were more likely to be older (P = 0.016) and smokers (P = 0.000). Individuals given previous advice about caffeine and health, had lower intakes (P = 0.002).
Many women are unaware of health perturbations associated with caffeine consumption. A diet abundant in caffeine may result in delayed conception, infertility and increased risk of osteoporosis, cardiovascular disease and cancer later in life. Such information needs to be conveyed to the public sector. Future research is also required to devise specific caffeine guidelines, particularly safe upper limits.
Sumario: Introduction: ageing and the social sciences -- The demography of ageing -- Income, wealth and health in later life -- Work and retirement -- Public pensions, Government expenditure and intergenerational transfers -- Ageing and the macroeconomy -- Ageing and public policy.
This article presents the results of Eurostat's latest population projections for the 15 countries of the European Union. Under the Eurostat baseline scenario, the EU population will continue to grow slowly until around the year 2025 before starting to decline. The number of young people will continue to fall, while the number of older people will increase. To greater or lesser extents, all EU countries will experience declining population growth and an ageing population.
The 1998-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.2 million in 1998 to over 63.5 million by 2021. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2036 and then gradually start to fall. The population will become gradually older with the median age expected to rise from 36.9 years in 1998 to nearly 42 years by 2021. In 1998, there were 1.4 million (13 per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of pensionable age. However, by 2008, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.
This article is adapted from a paper given by the author at an expert group meeting convened by the Population Division of the United Nations in New York in October 2000 which considered 'policy responses to population ageing and decline' in selected countries.
"The purpose of the present paper is to seek to elucidate the effects of recent and future population development upon the economic welfare of the Danish population as a whole, but especially of the elderly." It is shown that the proportion of the elderly in the total population has increased from 10 percent in 1900 to 20 percent in 1984 and is likely to increase to 21 percent in 2000 and 30 percent in 2025. The consequent increase in the dependency burden on those of working age is examined. The need for greater economic efficiency, higher fertility, and increased labor force participation by the elderly in order for the country to respond to this challenge is noted. (summary in FRE, ITA)
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