Fallout from nuclear tests: Dosimetry in Kazakhstan

Abstract

The populations that appear to have been the most exposed to radioactive fallout as a result of nuclear weapons testing at the Semipalatinsk test site (STS) can be divided into two groups. The first group is located in the areas of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the vicinity of the STS and the second group is located in the Altai krai (i.e. Altai region) of the Russian Federation. The purpose of this paper is to estimate doses for the populations of the Republic of Kazakhstan that resided in the vicinity of the STS at the time when nuclear weapons tests were conducted in the atmosphere. The methodology that was used to estimate doses is based on the radiation measurements that were made after each test. It was developed by joint efforts of the scientists of the Institute of Biophysics and other Institutes of the Ministry of Health of the USSR, biologists and physicists of the STS, as well as of the specialists from other organizations involved in radiation protection problems. That methodology is currently applied to the estimation of doses received by subjects living near the STS, as part of an epidemiological study carried out by the U.S. National Cancer Institute [1].

Full text

Background and aim of the study
The populations that appear to have been the most ex-
posed to radioactive fallout as a result of nuclear weap-
ons testing at the Semipalatinsk test site (STS) can be di-
vided into two groups. The first group is located in the
areas of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the vicinity of the
STS and the second group is located in the Altai krai (i.e.
Altai region) of the Russian Federation. The purpose of
this paper is to estimate doses for the populations of the
Republic of Kazakhstan that resided in the vicinity of the
STS at the time when nuclear weapons tests were con-
ducted in the atmosphere.
The methodology that was used to estimate doses is
based on the radiation measurements that were made af-
ter each test. It was developed by joint efforts of the sci-
entists of the Institute of Biophysics and other Institutes
of the Ministry of Health of the USSR, biologists and
physicists of the STS, as well as of the specialists from
other organizations involved in radiation protection
problems. That methodology is currently applied to the
estimation of doses received by subjects living near the
STS, as part of an epidemiological study carried out by
the U.S. National Cancer Institute [1].
Methodology of dose estimation
The methodology of dose estimation is based on the
coupling of data on radiation exposure of the populations
of the Republic of Kazakhstan and environmental trans-
fer models. The usable data are maintained in the ar-
chives of the Ministry of Defense and of the Ministry of
Health, as well as those of other organizations of the
Russian Federation that took part in nuclear testing oper-
ations at the STS. The most useful data are exposure
rates measured along the trajectories of the radioactive
clouds. The exposure-rate measurements, which were
usually taken aboard low-flying aircraft, were sometimes
supplemented with ground-level monitoring. In the ar-
chives of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federa-
tion, the measurement data of exposure rates are present-
ed in different forms:
1. Original measurements with indication of time, loca-
tion, height above ground surface, and reading of the
instrument, and
2. Maps showing isopleths of exposure rates normalized
to some definite postdetonation time. In addition, the
results of some measurements of radionuclide content
in soil, vegetation, grain crops, milk, and other envi-
ronmental samples are available.
The model used to predict or reconstruct the radiological
conditions after each test, in areas where measurements
were lacking, requires information on test yield, type and
composition of fission material, date and time of explo-
sion, height of radioactive cloud top, height of detona-
tion above ground surface, and average wind speed over
the height of the radioactive cloud [2].
The main parameters characterizing the radiological
conditions at the location of interest are derived by
means of the model:
●
Fallout arrival time, H+t (h)
●
Duration of fallout ∆t (h)
●
Fraction of the activity of the radionuclides in fallout
assigned to the biologically active particles, defined
as those with diameter d≤50 µm, η
d≤50
(unitless)
●
Average concentration of radionuclides in ground air
during the time of radioactive fallout
K. Gordeev · I. Vasilenko · A. Lebedev · Y. Stepanov · S. Shinkarev
State Research Center – Institute of Biophysics
of the Ministry of Health, Moscow, Russian Federation
A. Bouville (
✉
) · N. Luckyanov · S.L. Simon
Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics,
National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health,
Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
e-mail: bouvilla@exchange.nih.gov
L. Anspaugh
Department of Radiology, University of Utah,
Salt Lake City, UT 84108, USA
Radiat Environ Biophys (2002) 41:61–67
DOI 10.1007/s00411-001-0139-y
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTION
K. Gordeev · I. Vasilenko · A. Lebedev · A. Bouville
N. Luckyanov · S. L. Simon · Y. Stepanov
S. Shinkarev · L. Anspaugh
Fallout from nuclear tests: dosimetry in Kazakhstan
Received: 16 October 2001 / Accepted: 10 December 2001 / Published online: 9 March 2002
© Springer-Verlag 2002

●
Radionuclide ground deposition density at time
H+24 h, σ
Σ,24
(Bq m
–2
)
●
Exposure rate at time H+24 h, P
24
(mR h
–1
).
Whenever possible, the values of exposure rate, P
24
, and
of radionuclide ground deposition density at time
H+24 h, σ
Σ,24
, were derived from the available measure-
ments of exposure rate in the location of interest or in its
vicinity [3, 4, 5, 6].
The next step in the dosimetry calculation is to take
into account the lifestyle and dietary habits of the popu-
lation groups living at the location of interest:
●
Age-dependent number of hours spent outdoors, used
to derive the effective doses from external irradiation,
and
●
Type of milk consumed and age-dependent milk con-
sumption rates, used to derive the thyroid doses from
internal irradiation.
For the purpose of determining those tests most likely to
have affected the local population, dosimetric calcula-
tions were used to classify the 111 atmospheric tests ac-
cording to whether the estimated effective dose to an
adult living off-site at the point of maximum exposure
rate during the year following the nuclear explosion
would exceed 5 mSv. Eleven events were found to satisfy
that criterion and thus to contribute substantially to radia-
tion exposure. They were conducted on 29 August 1949,
24 September 1951, 12 August 1953, 5 May 1954,
30 October 1954, 29 July 1955, 2 August 1955, 16 March
1956, 24 August 1956, 22 August 1957, and 7 August
1962. Important characteristics of those tests are present-
ed in Table 1, while the airmass trajectories of the corre-
sponding radioactive clouds are shown in Fig. 1.
Estimation of doses for population groups
in Kazakhstan
Settlements of interest: location and population habits
On the basis of the analysis of the radiological condi-
tions in the Semipalatinsk Oblast as a result of nuclear
testing and after taking into account the opinion of the
specialists of local medical facilities, eight settlements
(see Table 2) were selected by the U.S. National Cancer
Institute for the purpose of an epidemiological study [1].
62
Table 1 Characteristics of the 11 most significant events conducted at the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS)
Characteristics Events
Event number [1] 1 2 4 13 18 19 20 26 28 41
b
148
Date (dd.mm.yy) 29.08.49 24.09.51 12.08.53 05.10.54 30.10.54 29.07.55 02.08.55 16.03.56 24.08.56 22.08.57 07.08.62
Local time 7:00 13:10 7:30 9:00 10:00 8:00 9:00 11:00 6:15 12:30 9:00
of explosion
Height above 30 30 30 0 55 2.5 2.5 0.4 93 1880 0
ground (m)
Total yield, q, kt 22 38 400
a
4.0 10 1.3 12 14 27 520 9.9
Maximum height 9 11.6 16 5 10.2 5.1 6.2 8.5 12 18.8 5.7
of radioactive
cloud (H
max
, km)
Average wind 47 26.4 64.6 43.3 32.9 42 36.6 39 71.2 29 10
speed
a
Estimated value assuming that the total yield of thermonuclear
event 4 was partly due to fission of
238
U (75% of total energy) and
to fusion of light nuclei (25% of total energy).
b
Explosion was at high altitude. Radioactive fallout occurred at
distances of 37–260 km from the experimental field of the STS.
Table 2 Location of the settle-
ments of interest in Kazakhstan
Settlement Location
Latitude Longitude Distance from the experimental field
of the STS (km)
Northeastern group
Dolon 50°40′ 79°18′ 106
Bolshaya Vladimirovka 50°53′ 79°29′ 127
Kanonerka 50°43′ 79°42′ 135
Novopokrovka 50°40′ 80°28′ 186
Korostelevskii 51°3′ 81°0′ 233
Southern group
Kaynar 49°12′ 77°23′ 139
Sarzhal 49°36′ 78°23′ 112
Kara-Aul 48°57′ 79°15′ 191

The locations of the eight settlements, which are be-
lieved to include those sites in which the highest levels
of exposure occurred, as well as other sites where radia-
tion exposure was very low, are given in Table 2 and are
shown in Fig. 1.
The eight settlements listed in Table 2 can be divided
into two groups: northeastern and southern, differentiat-
ed according to the prevalent nationality of the inhabit-
ants, the northeastern group being mainly of Russian
descent, and the southern group being mainly of Kazakh
descent. Lifestyle and dietary parameters that impact the
dose estimates were collected or estimated for the two
population groups. With respect to external irradiation,
the lifestyle parameters that are important are the aver-
age time spent outdoors and the type of residence. With
respect to internal irradiation of the thyroid, the con-
sumption rate of cow’s milk is the most important die-
tary parameter.
The northeastern group of settlements is located in the
northern part of the Semipalatinsk Oblast on the northern
bank of the Irtysh river, close to the Altai region of Rus-
sia. Five settlements are in this group: Dolon, Bolshaya
Vladimirovka, Kanonerka, Novopokrovka, and Koroste-
levskii. The populations of those villages are primarily
Russian and have specific life-style and dietary habits of
that nationality. In addition, there is a small percentage
of Germans, whose life-style and diet are close to those
of Russians. They typically lived in wooden houses that
afforded little protection from the gamma radiation emit-
ted from the radioactive cloud or from the activity de-
posited on the ground. For Russian settlements, the ratio
of the outdoor and indoor exposure rates is taken to be 1
for the gamma radiation emitted from the radioactive
cloud and 3 for the activity deposited on the ground.
Also, the residents of Russian settlements typically
drank cow’s milk. Age-dependent values of the average
time spent outdoors and of consumption rate of cow’s
milk for the inhabitants of Russian settlements are pro-
vided in Table 3.
The other (southern) group of settlements is located
in the steppe part of northern Kazakhstan and includes
Kaynar, Sarzhal, and Kara-Aul, typical villages with
primarily Kazakh populations and with life-style and
dietary habits typical of that population. One of the
main differences between Russian and Kazakhs is that
the Kazakhs drank horse’s milk instead of cow’s milk.
In addition, they usually lived in adobe (mud) houses,
which afforded more protection from outdoor gamma
radiation than the wooden houses inhabited by the Rus-
sians. For Kazakh settlements, the ratio of the outdoor
and indoor exposure rates is derived from measure-
ments to be 2.5 for the gamma radiation emitted from
the radioactive cloud and 13 for the activity deposited
on the ground. Age-dependent values of the average
time spent outdoors and of consumption rate of horse’s
milk for the inhabitants of Kazakh settlements are
listed in Table 3.
63
Fig. 1 Trajectories of the radioactive clouds related to the most
important tests and location of some of the settlements of interest
(Altai Krai=Altai region)

Radiological conditions in the settlements of interest
The first step of the dosimetry modeling was to charac-
terize the fallout radiation field in the settlements of in-
terest for each test that contributed to the radiation expo-
sure there. The methodology that was used for that pur-
pose is described in [2]. The characteristics of fallout
(time of arrival, duration of fallout, fraction of the activi-
ty of the radionuclides in fallout assigned to the biologi-
cally active particles with diameter d≤50 µm, average ac-
tivity concentration in ground-level air during the radio-
active fallout, ground deposition density at time H+24 h,
and external gamma-exposure rate at H+24 h) were mea-
sured or estimated for each settlement and each signifi-
cant test. The results are presented in Table 4.
In a second step, the concentrations of
131
I and of
133
I
in the type of milk predominantly consumed in each of
the eight settlements were estimated using the methodol-
ogy described in [2]. In these calculations, it is assumed
that dairy animals were on pasture during a time period
of a few weeks after each test and that only milk of local
origin was consumed. Under those conditions, the contri-
butions of other foodstuffs e.g., leafy vegetables or meat,
to the thyroid doses from internal irradiation are minor;
hence, they have not been considered in this paper. Esti-
mates of radioiodine concentrations in milk in each of
the villages following the most important tests are pre-
sented in Table 5.
64
Table 3 Age-dependent values
of the average time spent out-
doors and of the consumption
rate of milk by inhabitants of
Kazakh and of Russian settle-
ments
Lifestyle and dietary parameters Age (years)
13416≥18
Kazakh settlements
Time spent outdoors (h per day) 4 5 6 12 16
Consumption rate of horse’s milk (l per day) 0.25 0.35 0.5 0.7 0.7
Russian settlements
Time spent outdoors (h per day) 3 5 8 8 16
Consumption rate of cow’s milk (l per day) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7
Table 4 Characteristics of fallout in the eight settlements considered in Kazakhstan for the most significant tests
Settlement Event Time of Duration Biologically Average Ground Exposure rate
a
arrival of fallout active activity deposition at H+24 h, P
24
Date Number of fallout ∆t, h fraction concentration density at time mR h
–1
H+t, h of fallout in ground- H+24 h, σ
Σ,24
η
d≤50
level air Bq m
–2
during fallout
Dolon 29.08.49 1 2.4 2.0 0.03 5.5 10
8
4.3·10
9
1150
29.07.55 19 3.1 2.1 0.3 2.0·10
5
1.9·10
6
0.5
07.08.62 148 10.5 7.6 1.0 1.2·10
5
3.7·10
6
1.0
Bolshaya 29.08.49 1 2.9 2.3 0.05 4.5·10
5
4.1·10
6
1.1
Vladimirovka 29.07.55 19 4.0 2.7 0.54 2.2·10
5
2.6·10
6
0.7
07.08.62 148 13 9.3 1.0 1.1·10
5
4.1·10
6
1.1
Kanonerka 29.08.49 1 3.0 2.4 0.06 9.7·10
7
9.3·10
8
250
29.07.55 19 4.2 2.8 0.58 1.8·10
5
2.2·10
6
0.6
07.08.62 148 13.2 9.4 1.0 9.1·10
4
3.7·10
6
1.0
Novopokrovka 29.08.49 1 4.0 3.1 0.13 7.0·10
4
8.5·10
5
0.23
07.08.62 148 17.3 12.3 1.0 7.1·10
4
4.1·10
6
1.1
Korostelevskii 29.08.49 1 5.1 3.4 0.25 8.0·10
6
1.2·10
8
32.7
Kaynar 24.09.51 2 5.2 4.2 0.14 1.7·10
7
2.6·10
8
71.3
05.10.54 13 3.7 2.6 0.48 1.4·10
5
1.5·10
6
0.4
Sarzhal 12.08.53 4 1.7 1.7 0.003 5.1·10
8
3·10
9c
950/807
b
Kara-Aul 12.08.53 4 2.9 2.7 0.01 1.8·10
8
1.8·10
9c
777/466
b
a
For reasons of convenience, exposure rates are reported in
mR h
–1
. The SI unit for exposure is the Coulomb per kilogram
(1 R=2.58 10
–4
C kg
–1
).
b
The first value is the estimated total exposure rate from fission
debris and neutron-activated products (P
Σ,24
), while the second in-
cludes only that part of the exposure rate that is determined by fis-
sion debris (P
fission,24
).
c
Ground deposition density, σ
Σfission,24
, was calculated on the basis
of P
fission,24
.

Initial results
External effective doses and internal thyroid doses
for the residents of the settlements of interest
in the Republic of Kazakhstan
Using the data on the radiological conditions and on the
lifestyle and dietary habits of the population in the settle-
ments, effective doses from external irradiation and thy-
roid doses from internal irradiation have been estimated.
Both the external and the internal doses are age-depen-
dent. Doses were calculated for people who were adults
at the time of the tests (i.e., born before 1930), as well as
for 1-year-old children at the time of the first test (i.e.,
born in 1948).
The thyroid doses from internal irradiation were cal-
culated for:
●
Inhalation intake of
131
I,
133
I, and
135
I, and
●
Ingestion intake with milk of
131
I and
133
I.
The values of the thyroid dose coefficients were taken
from [7].
The estimated doses, assuming that no countermea-
sures were taken, are presented in Table 6. In fact, coun-
termeasures were only taken for test no. 4, which oc-
curred on 12 August 1953, and affected only the popula-
tions of Sarzhal and of Kara-Aul:
●
The residents of Sarzhal and their cattle were evacua-
ted to non-exposed areas before the detonation of
event 4 occurred. Those residents returned to Sarzhal
16 days after the event.
●
The residents of Kara-Aul were hurriedly evacuated a
few hours after the arrival of the radioactive cloud in
their settlement. However, out of the 1,620 residents
of Kara-Aul, 191 adults were left behind in order to
guard the properties of the residents. Those residents
were also evacuated at a later time. All residents re-
turned to Kara-Aul 10 days after the event. Table 6
also presents dose estimates for the evacuated resi-
dents of Sarzhal and Kara-Aul.
This method was also used by Gordeev [8] to calculate
thyroid doses for inhabitants of other settlements in
Semipalatinsk oblast. For example, thyroid doses for
1-year-old children were estimated to be 25.7 mGy for
residents of Semipalatinsk city, while for Znamenka,
thyroid doses for 1-year-olds were estimated to be
380 mGy for Kazakh children and 160 mGy for Russian
children [8].
Problems, limitations and potential solutions
1. The dose estimates presented in this paper should be
considered as preliminary reconstructions. Efforts are
under way to assess their validity and improve them
where possible. On-going activities include a detailed
comparison of the environmental transfer models
used in Russia and in the U.S., as well as the estima-
tion of external doses from EPR measurements in
teeth taken from local residents and thermolumines-
cence measurements in bricks obtained from local
buildings.
2. The upper ranges of estimated doses are about 1 Sv
(effective doses) from external irradiation and about
2 Gy (thyroid doses) from internal irradiation. How-
ever, there is not yet validation of these estimates by
physical measurements.
3. Effective doses from external irradiation are expected
to be reliable where based on measurements of expo-
sure rates after each test. The limiting factor, howev-
65
Table 5 Estimation of peak ac-
tivity concentrations of radio-
iodines in locally produced and
consumed milk
Settlement Event Peak activity concentration in milk, Bq l
–1
Date Number Cow Horse
131
I
133
I
131
I
133
I
Dolon 29.08.49 1 78,000 290,000 – –
29.07.55 19 360 1,300 – –
07.08.62 148 4,550 11,000 – –
Bolshaya 29.08.49 1 130 460 – –
Vladimirovka 29.07.55 19 1,000 3,500 – –
07.08.62 148 5,300 12,000 – –
Kanonerka 29.08.49 1 34,000 120,000 – –
29.07.55 19 930 3,250 – –
07.08.62 148 4,800 10,000 – –
Novopokrovka 29.08.49 1 73 250 – –
07.08.62 148 5,600 9,900 – –
Korostelevskii 29.08.49 1 22,000 72,000 – –
Kaynar 24.09.51 2 – – 160,000 510,000
05.10.54 13 – – 4,500 15,000
Sarzhal 12.08.53 4 – – 23,000 87,000
Kara-Aul 12.08.53 4 – – 110,000 380,000

er, is the sparseness of such data. Uncertainty of ex-
ternal doses to residents is mainly due to lack of
knowledge about the number of hours spent outdoors
each day among different age groups.
4. Thyroid doses from internal irradiation due to the
consumption of milk contaminated with
131
I and
133
I
are difficult to estimate reliably because they cannot
be confirmed by any present-day measurement. More-
over, the dose estimates depend on highly uncertain
parameters, including the fraction of fallout debris in-
tercepted by plants, the solubility of fallout of differ-
ent particles sizes and at different locations, transfer
coefficients for different types of dairy animals, and
the origin and amount of milk consumed by each per-
son.
5. Intakes via consumption of foodstuffs other than milk
are likely to provide small contributions to the inter-
nal thyroid dose.
66
Table 6 Estimates of effective
doses from external irradiation
and of thyroid doses from inter-
nal irradiation for the average
residents of the settlements of
interest in the Republic of
Kazakhstan
Event Year of External Internal thyroid dose (mGy) Total
birth effective effective
Date Number dose (mSv) Inhalation Ingestion Total dose (mSv)
Dolon
29.08.49 1 ≤1930 1240 10 1050 1100 1300
1948 890 26 2000 2000 990
29.07.55 19 ≤1930 0.7 0.06 3.5 3.6 0.9
1948 0.4 0.2 9.3 9.5 0.9
7.08.62 148 ≤1930 1.1 1.9 33 35 2.8
1948 0.8 3.6 56 60 3.8
Bolshaya Vladimirovka
29.08.49 1 ≤1930 1.1 0.02 1.7 1.7 1.2
1948 0.8 0.05 3.2 3.2 1.0
29.07.55 19 ≤1930 0.9 0.2 9.3 9.5 1.4
1948 0.55 0.6 25 25 1.8
07.08.62 148 ≤1930 1.2 2.6 37 39.5 3.2
1948 0.9 4.9 64 68.5 4.3
Kanonerka
29.08.49 1 ≤1930 250 5.8 440 450 270
1948 190 15 840 855 230
29.07.55 19 ≤1930 0.8 0.2 8.5 8.7 1.2
1948 0.5 0.5 23 23 1.6
07.08.62 148 ≤1930 1.1 2.4 33 35 2.8
1948 0.8 4.4 57 61 3.9
Novopokrovka
29.08.49 1 ≤1930 0.2 0.02 0.9 0.9 0.25
1948 0.2 0.04 1.7 1.8 0.25
07.08.62 148 ≤1930 1.1 3.5 37 41 3.1
1948 0.8 6.5 65 71 4.3
Korostelevskii
29.08.49 1 ≤1930 28 6.2 260 270 41
1948 23 15 510 520 49
Kaynar
24.09.51 2 ≤1930 52 7.1 1300 1300 120
1948 26 18 2200 2200 140
05.10.54 13 ≤1930 0.5 0.1 25 25 1.7
1948 0.2 0.3 76 76.5 4.0
Sarzhal
12.08.53 4 ≤1930
a
1310 0.3 130 130 1300
1948
a
440 0.6 280 280 450
≤1930
b
210 – 12 12 210
1948
b
83 – 31 31 84
Kara-Aul
12.08.53 4 ≤1930
a
690 1.2 520 520 720
1948
a
220 2.5 1100 1100 280
≤1930
b
110 0.4 63 64 110
1948
b
37 0.9 150 150 44
≤1930
c
150 0.4 63 64 150
a
Estimates of the doses that
the residents of Sarzhal and
Kara-Aul would have received
if they had not been evacuated.
b
Estimates of actual doses to
the residents of Sarzhal and
Kara-Aul, taking their evacua-
tion into account.
c
Estimates of doses to the 191
residents who were evacuated
from Kara-Aul at a later date.

Future plans
The dose estimates presented in this paper relate to un-
specified residents of the settlements that are considered.
In order to estimate the thyroid doses to the specific indi-
viduals who are members of the epidemiological study
undertaken by NCI, account should be taken of the resi-
dence histories of those individuals, as well as of their
personal life-style and dietary habits, especially with re-
gard to the type and amount of milk consumed. This ef-
fort is under way.
It is also important to note that it would be highly de-
sirable to confirm the validity of the dose estimates pre-
sented in this paper. It is for that purpose that it is
planned to conduct a detailed comparison of the environ-
mental transfer models used in Russia and in the U.S.
and that EPR measurements in teeth taken from local
residents and thermoluminescence measurements in bricks
obtained from local buildings are being envisaged.
Acknowledgements This study was funded by the U.S. National
Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics
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