A General Algorithm for Estimating a Markov-Generated Increment-Decrement Life Table with Applications to Marital-Status Patterns
Extant methods of estimating increment-decrement life tables (IDLT's) are based on the assumption that the forces of transition from state to state are constant within each interval of time (age) examined. A general algorithm for estimating the functions of a (k + 1)-state Markovian IDLT is set forth herein, which treats the constant-forces assumption as a special case. Three different kinds of probabilities, called p π, and χ probabilities, are identified, and their properties are discussed. Particular attention is focused on the three-state case in which the survival functions are assumed to be linear within each age interval, and such a model is applied to the analysis of marital dissolution and remarriage using data for females in Sweden, cohort born 1930–34.
Available from: Liming Cai
- "DFLE is a measure of expected value that , by definition , can only be estimated using a life table model . In demography there are two types of life table models for this purpose : the prevalence - based Sullivan method ( Sullivan 1971 ) and the incidence - based MSLT model ( Schoen and Land 1979 ) . Sullivan method combines prevalence of disability with incidence of mortality to estimate DFLE . "
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ABSTRACT: To estimate the cost of an additional disability-free life year for older Americans in 1992–2005.
This study used 1992–2005 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, a longitudinal survey of Medicare beneficiaries with a rotating panel design.
This analysis used multistate life table model to estimate probabilities of transition among a discrete set of health states (nondisabled, disabled, and dead) for two panels of older Americans in 1992 and 2002. Health spending incurred between annual health interviews was estimated by a generalized linear mixed model. Health status, including death, was simulated for each member of the panel using these transition probabilities; the associated health spending was cross-walked to the simulated health changes.
Disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) increased significantly more than life expectancy during the study period. Assuming that 50 percent of the gains in DFLE between 1992 and 2005 were attributable to increases in spending, the average discounted cost per additional disability-free life year was $71,000. There were small differences between gender and racial/ethnic groups.
The cost of an additional disability-free life year was substantially below previous estimates based on mortality trends alone.
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ABSTRACT: As an ordinary life table follows a closed group from birth to the death of its last member, a labor force status life table follows a closed group through life and through the statuses “in the labor force” and “not in the labor force.” Using data from the January 1972 and January 1973 Current Population Surveys, two types of labor force status life tables were calculated for the United States, 1972. One type was a conventional working life table (for males) which started with an ordinary life table and partitioned the life table population into labor force statuses using age-specific proportions in the labor force. The other type was an increment-decrement table, prepared for both males and females, which was calculated so as to be consistent with the rates of labor force accession and separation implied by the data.
Increment-decrement labor force status life tables are generally preferable to conventional working life tables. They reflect the implications of a clearly specified set of behavioral rates, provide detailed measures of the flows between labor force statuses, do not introduce seriously biasing approximations into the calculation of summary measures of labor force experience, and can be applied to female data as easily as male data. In practice, incrementdecrement labor force status life tables can be calculated from current and retrospective data generated by a single labor force survey.
The increment-decrement labor force status life tables for the United States, 1972 reflected the extent to which the labor force participation of males exceeded that of females, but indicated that, on the average, half a woman’s lifetime between the ages of 16 and 65 was spent in the labor force. There were marked differences in the proportions, by age, of males and females in the labor force, with the male pattern rising to a single, flat peak and the female pattern being bimodal. Nonetheless, the two sexes shared similar age patterns in the proportions changing, or not changing, their labor force status.
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