The results ofnumerical simulation of storm waves near the northeastern coast ofthe Black Sea using different wind forcing (CFSR reanalysis, GFS forecast, and WRF reanalysis and forecast) are presented. The wave modeling is based on the SWAN spectral wave model and the high-resolution unstructured grid for the Tsemes Bay. The quality estimates of wave simulation results for various wind forcing are provided by comparing the model results with the instrumental data on wind waves in the Tsemes Bay. It is shown that the forecast of the maximum wave height for some storms using the WRF wind forcing is more accurate than that based on the GFS forcing.
A 182 m ice core was recovered from a borehole drilled into bedrock on the western plateau of Mt. Elbrus (43°20´53.9'' N, 42°25´36.0'' E; 5115 m a.s.l.) in the Caucasus, Russia, in 2009. This is the first ice core in the region that represents a paleoclimate record that is practically undisturbed by seasonal melting. Relatively high snow accumulation rates at the drilling site enabled the analysis of the intraseasonal variability in climate proxies. Borehole temperatures ranged from −17 °C at 10 m depth to −2.4 °C at 182 m. A detailed radio-echo sounding survey showed that the glacier thickness ranged from 45 m near the marginal zone of the plateau up to 255 m at the glacier center. The ice core has been analyzed for stable isotopes (δ18O and δD), major ions (K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, NH4+, SO42-, NO3-, Cl-, F-), succinic acid (HOOCCH2COOH), and tritium content. The mean annual net accumulation rate of 1455 mm w.e. for the last 140 years was estimated from distinct annual oscillations of δ18O, δD, succinic acid, and NH4+. Annual layer counting also helped date the ice core, agreeing with the absolute markers of the tritium 1963 bomb horizon located at the core depth of 50.7 m w.e. and the sulfate peak of the Katmai eruption (1912) at 87.7 m w.e. According to mathematical modeling results, the ice age at the maximum glacier depth is predicted to be ~ 660 years BP. The 2009 borehole is located downstream from this point, resulting in an estimated basal ice age of less than 350–400 years BP at the drilling site. The glaciological and initial chemical analyses from the Elbrus ice core help reconstruct the atmospheric history of the European region.
Based on the data of numerical simulations of the wind wave parameters, the wave energy resources of the Baltic Sea were estimated. Calculations of the wave parameters were performed using the SWAN spectral model and the wind data of NCEP/CFSR (CFS2) reanalysis from 1979 to 2015. The simulations were realised using a rectangular grid with a spatial resolution of 0.05°. The maps of the average annual wave energy flux for the period 1979–2015 were plotted. The maximum values of which reach 6–6.5 kW/m and appear in the Baltic Proper and in the South-Eastern Baltic. For the Kaliningrad Region, the wave energy flux is 3–4 kW/m. The analysis of the seasonal and interannual variability of the wave energy flux for two points located in the open sea and in the coastal zone of the South-Eastern Baltic was carried out. Seasonal variability of the wave energy flux is very high: the energy flux in the winter months is several times greater than in the summer period. The average long-term probability of exceedance of the wave energy for several thresholds was calculated. The probability of exceedance of the wave energy with a threshold 1 kW/m in the Baltic Proper is 55–60%.
The paper estimates the seasonal and interannual variability of the wave energy flow for the Barents Sea, where the autonomous power supply of objects on the coast, in the shelf zone and in the open ocean can be most in demand. Numerical calculations of the wind wave parameters were carried out using the wind wave spectral model WaveWatch-III developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and wind data at an altitude of 10 m from NCEP / CFSR reanalysis, which covers the period 1979-2010. The model takes into account the influence of ice, as well as the dissipation of wave energy when approaching the shore, which is of considerable importance in connection with the choice of the object of research (open and coastal areas of the Barents Sea). The calculations were carried out on an original non-structural grid, the spatial resolution of which varies from 15 km in open water areas to 500 m in the coastal zone. The primary results of the simulation are the heights of significant waves and the transfer of wave energy for each node of grid (the time step is 3 hours, the coverage period is 30 years).The results are presented in the form of diagrams of the interannual and intra-annual variability of the wave energy flow, as well as the distribution maps of the flow probability of occurrence. The paper estimates that the flow of wave energy varies in the open part of the sea from 2-5 kW / m in the summer months to 60-100 kW / m in winter; near the coast of the Kola Peninsula, the maximum values of the wave energy flux in the winter months are 20 kW / m; the average multi-year probability of occurrence of wave energy flow (more than 1 kW / m) in the open part of the Barents Sea exceeds 80-90% in all seasons of the year; in the coastal part of the sea, its intra-annual variability is high, in the summer the probability is reduced to 60%.
Wave energy calculated for coastal zones of the Black and Barents Seas with using SWAN and WaveWatch3 wave models. NCEP CFSR wind forcing with spatial resolution 0.3° was used. The special unstructured numerical mesh with high resolution in coastal zone (200-500 m) used. The maps of average annual wave enegrgy flux was provided for period 1979-2010. The maps of probability for wave energy made for coastal zones. Probability when the wave enegrgy flux higher 1 kW/m for the coastal zone of the Barents Sea is 70-80% and for the Black Sea – 10-20%.
The results of wind wave hindcast for the Caspian Sea for the period of 1979–2017 are presented. The WAVEWATCH III wave model and wind forcing from the NCEP/CFSR reanalysis are used. The modeling is performed on the unstructured grid with the spacing to 1 km in the coastal zone. Mean and extreme values of wave height, length, and period are provided. It is shown that the maximum height of 3% probability waves is 11.7 m. The interannual variability of wave parameters is analyzed. No unambiguous trend towards increase or decrease in the storm activity was revealed over the hindcasting period.
The seasonal variability of wave energy potential in the Black Sea is analyzed using data of a wind wave hindcast. Wave parameters were calculated using the SWAN model and wind data from the NCEP/CFSR reanalysis data for the period between 1979 and 2010 and NCEP/CFSv2 reanalysis for the period from 2011 till 2016. The calculations were performed on an unstructured mesh with spatial resolution varying from 12 km offshore till 200–500 m in coastal areas. The maps of mean annual energy flux distribution for the period 1979-2016 were obtained. The probability of average monthly wave energy for several criteria is calculated. The average annual distribution of the wave energy flux in the Black Sea varies from 3-4 kW/m in the western part of the sea to 1.5-3 kW/m in the eastern part. The average annual energy probability over 1 kW/m over the entire period is 50% for the western part of the sea. The largest energy probability over 1 kW/m is observed in December and January and is 70% for the western part of the sea. In May and June, minimal energy probability is observed.