Project

Sustainable Water Resources Management in Africa

Goal: Modelling water resources, land use, socioeconomic factors and climate change in some African countries through a scientific cooperation between Lund University in Sweden and Pan African University in Algeria

Date: 1 January 2016

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Project log

Brian Oduor
added a research item
The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate streamflow in the Cidacos River in Navarra. SWAT could help in predicting future hydrological impacts due to agricultural land use changes, such as the transformation from rainfed to irrigated agriculture. The model's suitability was assessed by carrying out parametrization, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, calibration, validation, and assessing its performance using statistical indicators. Streamflow in the watershed was calibrated and validated between the years 2000-2010 and 2011-2020, respectively, at the Olite gauging station. Uncertainties in the model were analyzed using the p-factor and r-factor, which satisfactory results for both calibration and validation periods. Statistical performance indices provided a good match between the observed and simulated values, which indicated that the SWAT model was very satisfactory for the simulation of stream flow in the watershed.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added a research item
Agriculture is the backbone of Uganda’s economy, with about 24.9% contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) as per the Uganda National Household Survey 2016/17. Agricultural productivity (yield per hectare) is still low due to the high dependence on rain-fed subsistence farming. Climate change is expected to further reduce the yield per hectare. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on maize yield in the Victoria Nile Sub-basin using the AquaCrop model. It further assesses the possible adaptation measures to climate change. The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2–Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) data downloaded from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was used to simulate maize yield in the near future (2021–2040), mid future (2041–2070) and late future (2071–2099). Results show that maize yield is likely to reduce by as high as 1–10%, 2–42% and 1–39% in the near, mid and late futures, respectively, depending on the agro-ecological zone. This decline in maize yield can have a significant impact on regional food security as well as socio-economic well-being since maize is a staple crop. The study also shows that improving soil fertility has no significant impact on maize yield under climate change. However, a combined application of supplementary irrigation and shifting the planting dates is a promising strategy to maintain food security and socio-economic development. This study presents important findings and adaptation strategies that policymakers and other stakeholders such as farmers can implement to abate the effects of climate change on crop production.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added a research item
Water resources face risks due to water use stress and water scarcity. Collective and integrated actions by different institutions and stakeholders are needed to reduce future water risks. This paper aimed to assess the potential for a water stewardship partnership in River Nzoia Basin to reduce future water risks facing the ecosystem, agriculture, and other sectors by quantifying water risks and mapping stakeholders for a water stewardship partnership in the basin. Water risks were quantified using indicators from remote sensing platforms and secondary sources. Stakeholder mapping was conducted using stakeholder analysis, while stakeholders’ views were collected using questionnaires. The results showed that there is a high fluctuation in the vegetation cover and primary productivity in the basin pointing to a degradation and deforestation. It was also noted that there is an increase in the frequency and severity of drought and high evapotranspiration rates in some parts of the basin due to the low vegetation cover. Combining the results indicated an increase in water risk between 2000 and 2014 in different parts of the basin at a different magnitude of risks. The conducted interviews found that the basin lacked a stewardship program. However, there was a potential for a successful stewardship partnership among stakeholders as most of the stakeholders showed their ability to play a role in the stewardship program. The paper showed a need to form a water stewardship program at the basin to tackle drought, deforestation, and land degradation. The proposed water stewardship program should be built on commitment, transparency, and inclusivity.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added a research item
Poor water services in developing countries after national conflict as a result of institutional setups and devastating infrastructures. This study assesses how institutional arrangements have affected the poor water services in Somalia, through thematic analyses. The huge gap in the literature about Somalia highlights the significant need of such research works and the originality of this paper. For this paper, different stakeholders were interviewed from seven zones of the city of Garowe. The results show that public private partnerships (PPP) play a vital role in providing drinking water. The results show that the institutions involved in the water sector in Puntland are not well organized. Roles and responsibilities were unclear, and different governmental institutions criticized each other for deliberately taking over others’ responsibilities, leading to poor and over-priced domestic water quality. Most consumers cannot afford a drinking water supply to their homes, so they are forced to walk long distances and queue for a long time in order to access water. Our analysis shows that it will be difficult for Somalia to achieve Sustainable Development Goal six (SDG 6) (target one) under the current institutional arrangements. Institutional reforms are recommended in the water sector in order to achieve SDG 6 (Target one), and to ensure safe drinking water in Puntland by 2030.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added a research item
The development of great dams and hydropower plants increases power supply and access. However, the process is considered a threat to livelihoods, ecosystem and biodiversity because in most cases it brings about human displacement and natural resources degradation. This paper seeks to assess the development of the Bujagali Hydropower Plant in Uganda (BHP) and its compliance with IWRM principles based on water knowledges, societal values, and inter-disciplinary approach. The paper develops a set of strategic interventions for the dam and the BHP based on SWOT analysis, XLRM framework, Multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary development approach, and sustainable management. These measures are deemed socially and ecologically acceptable by all stakeholders including the cultural and historical institutions, societal actor groups, including mega-hydraulic bureaucracies, the private sectors and national politicians. The results show that project developers should always carry out Environment and Social Impact Assessments (ESIA); develop timely ‘Resettlement Action Plan’; carry out informed consultation and participation; promote transparency; and communicate project’s risks, potential impacts
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added a research item
Water shortages across the globe have increased due to climate change among other factors with negative impacts expected at the river basin level. Anticipating these impacts will help experts act in a timely manner to avoid a future water crisis. As part of addressing the future water shortage impacts on the Togolese community, this paper assessed water security in the context of the global environmental change in the Oti River Basin taking Oti Nord sub-basin (ONSB) as a case study. Key informants’ interviews were done with staff from governmental institutions, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), community-based organizations, and private operators. The Improved Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model (IFCEM) was used for assessing water security (WS). A basin level WS evaluation system including five subcomponents (external environment security, water resources security, water-society security, water economic security, and water-environment security) and 23 indicators related to climate, socio-economy, water availability, and consumption were constructed. The results showed that the water level is very insecure in the sub-basin for the assessed years (2010, 2015, and 2025) with the year 2025 being the worst (expected a decrease of water security by 20% and 1% in 2025 compared to the years 2015 and 2010, respectively). This insecurity is found to be the result of many factors including technical, institutional, juridical, environmental, socio-cultural, hydrogeological, and demographical factors. However, managerial factors such as institutional instability, the inadequacies in water and related sector evolution, and the absence of de-centralized water management structures, the non-operationalization of management organs/financial instruments, and culture (i.e. taboos and bylaws) are found to be key to the study area. The paper concluded that the operationalization of management organs/financial instruments may enable the application of adopted water policies and regulations, which may lead to a sound and coordinated management of the available water resources since this will enable the government’s self-investment in clean water provision, data acquisition (potential water available and the estimation of economic driven potential water needs, which are key for any sound development), and a stimulated joined effort from the existing institutions. In addition, the establishment of a sound waste management system and awareness raising, and educative activities regarding water pollution will be of great benefit for this cause.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added a research item
The Mkoji sub-catchment is the most populated sub-catchment in the uppermost part of the Rufiji basin in Tanzania, with critical users downstream, and it is vulnerable to water shortages. Despite the efforts made by governmental and non-governmental organizations in forming and supporting water user associations, little is known about their role on water resource management in the country. This study aimed to investigate the role of water user associations on the restoration of decreased environmental flow and degraded aquatic ecosystems in Tanzania, taking the Mkoji sub-catchment as a case study. Six water user associations were assessed, focusing on their strategies and influence on restoration, land use, ecosystem degradation, and their role in climate change mitigation strategies. Data were collected from various sources using interviews, focus group discussions and questionnaires. The Spearman correlation test was used to seek the relationship between the flow and the aquatic ecosystem. Statistical results showed that there was no correlation between the flow and rainfall, and there was a correlation between freshwater ecosystems and the flow. The results showed that 89% of the sample population accepted the decrease of the flow while 75% accepted the decrease of the fish catch in the freshwater ecosystem of the study. Based on the results obtained, the paper concluded that water user associations are doing a great job in management and restoration while politics, funding, and water permits were the main obstacles. Therefore, the government should play a role in restoring the ecosystem, bridging the gaps between farmers and animal keepers, land use planning, and developing aquaculture.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added a research item
The failing ecosystem services in Thika-Chania catchment is manifested in the deterioration of water quality, sedimentation of reservoirs, and subsequent increase in water treatment costs due to high turbidity. The services can be restored by implementing relevant soil and water conservation practices to enhance flow regulation and control sediment yield. The impacts of contour farming and filter strips on water and sediment yield were evaluated using Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT), Texas A&M University, USA. Sediment calibration and validation was achieved using data obtained from a bathymetric survey. Model parameters were adjusted to simulate the conservation impacts of contour farming and filter strips. Results indicated the average annual sediment yield as 22 t/ha at the outlet of the catchment and average annual surface runoff of 202 mm. The simulation results showed that filter strips of 5 m width would reduce the average annual sediment yield from the catchment by 54%. The efficacy of filter strips in reducing sediment yield was observed to increase with increasing filter width. Three-meter filter strips and contour farming reduced the average annual sediment yield at catchment outlet by 46% and 36%, respectively. It was concluded that the implementation of contour farming and filters strips reduced sediments by 63% from the base value. Water yield at the sub-basin level was only influenced by contour farming. The total water yield at the catchment outlet experienced no significant change.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added a research item
The change in land use has increased flood risk in Tunisia. This paper evaluates the impact of such changes on the Mellegue River basin in Tunisia. The semi-distributed (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) HBV-Light hydrological model and remote sensing for two different periods were used in the evaluation. ArcGIS software was used to generate land use/cover maps. The accuracy of the classified maps was assessed using a contingency matrix. The results show that the forest area decreased by 5% from 1988 to 2003 due to anthropogenic activities. As well, the irrigated land increased by 4% due to development of advanced agricultural techniques and governmental support to increase agricultural yield. Model calibration and validation us-ing GAP optimization for land use in 1988 and 2003 gave an efficiency of 0.38 and 0.33, respectively. The validation results slightly decreased compared to the calibration step. The paper showed that deforestation was the main factor of increasing the runoff from 1988 to 2003.
Brian Oduor
added 2 research items
Despite their imperative role in water resources management, distributed hydrological models like SWAT require calibration that can be challenging due to uncertainties of parameters involved. Prior to modelling of hydrological processes, these parameters and their uncertainty range need to be identified. The objective of this study was to conduct uncertainty analysis of hydrological processes and to calibrate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for stream flow and sediment yield modelling in Thika River catchment. Sequential Uncertainty Fitting program (SUFI-2) was used to conduct sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Stream flow was calibrated and validated between the years 1998 to 2013 for gauging stations 4CB05 and 4CB04. Manual sediments calibration was achieved by constraining the MUSLE parameters using the bathymetric survey data. Two uncertainty indices, p and r factor, were obtained as 0.72 and 0.65, 0.65 and 0.45 during calibration and validation, respectively. Statistical performance indicators showed a good match between the observed and simulated values which indicated that the model was well calibrated for simulation of stream flow and sediments yield in the catchment.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added a research item
Land use change has a significant impact on the ecosystem. In this paper the effects of land use change on the physicochemical properties of the soil in Rulindo District, Rwanda have been studied. Three different land use types were selected; forestland, cattle farmland and cultivated land. A randomised complete block research design was used to carry out this research. Nine soil samples were collected and then analysed. The distributed samples were analysed in the Soil Laboratory of University of Rwanda-Busogo campus, while the undisturbed samples were analysed in-situ. Eight physicochemical properties were measured: pH, Organic Matter (OM), available nitrogen, available phosphorus, exchangeable potassium, soil bulk density, moisture content and porosity. The results showed that changing land use from forest or farm to cultivated land reduced the organic matter, available nitrogen, soil moisture and porosity while bulk density and pH were significantly increasing. On the other hand, the exchangeable potassium and exchangeable phosphorus did not change significantly for the both land use changes. Hence, the reduction of forestland and farmland are highly sensible to erosion and will decline soil fertility. The paper proposed few steps and recommendations to be the base for a new sustainable land use management in Rwanda.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added a research item
The competing water uses within the Mara River Basin MRB has increased water demand, which has affected the Mara river. In this paper, water resources and demands were modelled using Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP), by which different methods and strategies were assessed to mitigate the overuse practices from the Mara river. For this, water uses and resources in the basin were quantified and mapped in regard to their current and future statuses taking 2010 as a reference year for the simulation’ scenarios up to 2045. The Parameter Estimation Tool (PEST) was used to calibrate the model. The results showed that the total water demand within the basin under the reference scenario was 4.91 BCM, the demand dropped to 4.1 BCM under the ¨Demand Management Strategy DMS scenario and to 3.5 BCM under the Enhanced Policy Implementation and DMS scenario. The results also showed that the proposed DMS could increase water sustainability by reducing water demands at the basin.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added a research item
Clean water scarcity becomes a critical issue in many parts of Ethiopia due to the high population growth, water pollution, and climate change. The high annual rainfall rates make rainwater harvesting one of the best options to mitigate water scarcity. This study was conducted to analyze the economic feasibility of water harvesting for individual houses in Dessie-town. The results show that the harvested water from a 60 m2 roof can cover all non-potable water needs or can cultivate a small garden, 50 m2, with some needed crops. Cultivating tomatoes and onions can increase the annual household’s income by 5 %.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added 2 research items
Soil and water conservation measures are widely practiced in Kenya to tackle the degradation of the ecosystems and to improve land productivity. Local government and NGOs have developed programs and campaigns about soil and water conservation measures. The aim of this study is to assess the need for soil and water conservation measures in ThikaChania catchment by conducting a household survey using QuickTap Survey software. A total of 200 respondents were successfully interviewed and results analyzed in SPSS program. GIS tools were also used to do a classification of slopes in the study area. Results indicate that more than 90% of the people in the catchment area are farmers. In the recent years, 50% of the respondents have noted a decline in the vegetation. During the rain seasons, the intensity of color in the local rivers due to sediments have been observed to increase by 75% of the respondent while 9% said there was no change. More than 70% of the respondents indicated that the water levels have been on the declining trend especially during the low flows. Terraces and grass strips were the common soil and water conservation measures although some of them were severely degraded. We concluded that there is an immediate need to implement soil and water conservation measures in the catchment to enhance and restore the optimum functioning of the ecosystems. Capacity building and frequent extension services are needed to increase awareness on the impacts of the respective conservation methods. Incentives programs need to be established to encourage more farmers to participate in conserving and protecting their lands from degradation.
Background and Objective: Climate change poses a threat for agriculture and development in Rwanda. The agricultural sector in Rwanda is the engine of economic growth and modernization. This study examines the role of community based organizations (CBOs) in transferring climate change information to farmers’ communities in Rwanda. Materials and Methods: Three districts (Kirehe, Rwamagana and Ngoma) were studied and two active CBOs (RWIRRI and RADO) were selected for data collection. A total of 100 farmer households were interviewed. A focus group discussion of fifteen participants was conducted in the community. Results: The results showed that the CBOs played a good role in increasing farmers’ awareness related to climate change and adaptation strategies. CBOs had built a capacity in the local communities regarding improved agricultural methods, climate variability and climate change effects. The adaptation strategies could improve the livelihood conditions of the communities. Conclusion: CBOs had played a role in increasing farmers’ awareness and had built their capacity regarding to climate change and crops productivity.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added 2 research items
The rapid population growth increases water demand and affects water allocation systems as well as water resources management plans to satisfy the basic water needs for both human and nature. This has called upon the adoption of the integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach which promotes the coordination and management of water, land and related resources to maximize the economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the ecosystem. Water management and the implementation of IWRM approach cannot be achieved without proper working institutions that can coordinate and manage the implementation strategies. The aim of this paper is to establish a national water resources management authority in Rwanda that will manage and coordinate the national water resources in a sustainable way taking the water resources management bodies in Rwanda, in comparison with the Kenyan water resources management bodies as a good example. An extensive review was conducted using governmental documents, and key institutional elements were analyzed by evaluating their performance in comparing with the Kenyan institutions. The paper revealed that Rwandan water resources management is a fragmented way and the level of control is sophisticated without taking into consideration the management of water resources at a catchment level, which affects the coordination, management and the implementation of water policies. The results show that most of the water laws and policies in Rwanda should be changed and establish the Rwandan water resources management Authority that has the power to control and coordinate the water resources implementation policies.
Clean water scarcity becomes a critical issue in many parts of Ethiopia due to the high population growth, water pollution, and climate change. The high annual rainfall rates make rainwater harvesting one of the best options to mitigate water scarcity. This study was conducted to analyze the economic feasibility of water harvesting for individual houses in Dessie-town. The results show that the harvested water from a 60 m2 roof can cover all non-potable water needs or can cultivate a small garden, 50 m2, with some needed crops. Cultivating tomatoes and onions can increase the annual household’s income by 5 %.
Khaldoon A. Mourad
added a project goal
Modelling water resources, land use, socioeconomic factors and climate change in some African countries through a scientific cooperation between Lund University in Sweden and Pan African University in Algeria