Project

Sun-controlled climate- & sea-level change

Goal: This project aims to establish what, exactly, drives climate- and sea-level change. WHO AM I? A published independent geologist (sedimentologist) with a geology doctorate (University of Oxford 1982-86) and 35 years' worldwide geological consulting experience, I'm now in my 7th year of near-full-time literature research on ALL of the diverse scientific aspects of climate change, including geology, geophysics, archaeology, oceanography, meteorology, glaciology, astrophysics, palaeoclimatology, and 'climate science'. This ResearchGate project comprises about 40 brief and readily understood contributions, mostly 'Technical Notes' (usually 1 to 5 pdf slides, convenient for laptop viewing and projecting) and 1-page conference abstracts, spanning 2016-2022 (click on 'Project Log' above). I generally add a new contribution every few weeks. The reader will notice how my interpretations have evolved over time, as is usual in science. In particular, my 2022 contribution, 'Holocene solar control of global temperature disrupted since 1940s by man-made warming', and subsequent ones, precisely determine the onset and amount of man's contribution to global warming, and demonstrate that the main cause is black carbon (soot) released by combustion of coal and diesel fuel. CO2 is evidently innocent. Dr Roger Higgs, 25th August 2022

Date: 1 November 2015 - 31 December 2025

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Roger Higgs
added 2 research items
ABSTRACT for Geological Society of America Annual Meeting, Denver, October 2022. Submitted 18 July, ACCEPTED 11 August 2022. To view abstract, scroll down or click 'Download'. Poster in preparation (September 2022).
ABSTRACT for Geological Society of America Annual Meeting, Denver, October 2022. Submitted 18 July, ACCEPTED 11 August 2022. To view abstract, scroll down or click 'Download'. Slideshow in preparation (September 2022).
Roger Higgs
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5-page manuscript plus 5 figures. ABSTRACT: Proving the Sun's strong influence on climate change, published graphs of 1) global temperature fluctuations and 2) solar-magnetic output of the last 9,000 years are strikingly alike. Cross-matching of major spikes (decades-long peaks and troughs) reveals a ~150-year temperature lag, ascribed here to ocean thermal inertia. Non-matching spikes are also numerous: cold ones attributable to mega-eruptions ('volcanic winters'); and warm ones probably due to surges in submarine volcanism and/or hydrothermal venting. The graphs clearly decouple in the 20th Century: post-1940 warmth (NASA-HadCRUT charts) is disproportionately high for the corresponding solar output (150 years earlier), implicating either A) a submarine heat surge or B) one or more of three potential global-warming drivers produced by humans burning fossil fuels and wood, i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2), waste heat, and particulate black carbon (BC). Exonerating submarine heating, post-1940 temperature inflections (change points) correlate with abrupt changes in world annual consumption of coal (10-year lag) and oil. Further condemning coal, ~10 years after its usage suddenly doubled in 1974 (First Oil Shock), in 1985 terrestrial air oddly began warming twice as fast as the sea surface (NASA-HadCRUT; contrast previous lockstep). This preferential land warming is not attributable to CO2 as, even in heavily industrial regions, atmospheric CO2 is <0.5% above the global average (now 415 ppm). Nor can rising CO2 explain long temperature hiatuses (1957-75; 1998-2012). Evidently CO2's net 'greenhouse effect' is near zero, possibly negative due to poorly known feedbacks. Thus 'carbon capture' is misconceived. It is also counterproductive, e.g. if CO2 emissions were allowed to grow until 2080 and then slowly decline, atmospheric CO2 would stabiliize at ~750 ppm in ~2140 (IPCC scenario RPC6.0), near the agricultural optimum of ~1000 ppm. Given CO2's innocence, the coal link (above) incriminates BC and/or waste heat. Substituting nuclear power for coal will reduce the BC threat, but not the waste-heat menace. Solar-magnetic output rose an extraordinary 130% from 1901 to 1992, to its highest level in >9,000 years. Corresponding warming ~150 years later (lag) will add to man-made warming, unless world energy usage (proxy for BC and waste heat) stops growing by then. Simply reducing annual energy growth to zero (cf. 5% in 1960, 2% in 2020) would halt anthropogenic global warming within ~10 years (coal lag-time). PLEASE CLICK 'REQUEST FULL TEXT'.
Roger Higgs
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CONFERENCE ABSTRACT ONLY (manuscript in preparation), scroll down to view and/or download. You will notice that the latest draft (6th April 2022) has a revised title. Readers familiar with my ResearchGate contributions over the last 5 years will know that this abstract reverses my earlier interpretation that man-made warming is negligible, based on undeniable correlation between solar output and climate change, omitted in IPCC models. Such is the nature of science. Based on my latest integration of published data, I now interpret mankind to be responsible for post-1940s (World War Two) warming and imminent calamitous sea-level rise. However, the cause is black carbon and waste heat, not CO2 (ironically beneficial), as explained in my contribution of last month (Feb 2022), here on ResearchGate.
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2021-7. For 5 years I have been convinced that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) does not exist (see my previous ResearchGate contributions). Assuming that the global temperature data (surface thermometer, satellite, radiosonde; all controlled by NASA-NOAA-NCDC) have not been manipulated to agree with one another, I WAS WRONG. But the culprits are man-made waste heat and black carbon, not CO2. Did you know that typically 60-70% of a coal-fired power station's energy output is waste heat (thermal pollution), discharged into the air along with black carbon? China has ~1,000 (Daily Mail), and is planning dozens more. Did you know there are more than 1 billion air conditioning units in the world? How many vehicles, aircraft and ships, likewise all belching heat? And steelworks, cement works, factories, home furnaces, etc., ad nauseam. Diesel motors and more than a billion home cooking/heating fires relentlessly spew black carbon. CO2's innocence means that 'carbon capture' is a vast waste of money; in fact counter-productive, as agriculture and silviculture are relatively CO2-starved (atmospheric CO2 concentration, now 415ppm, is still at a geologically ultra-low level). Isn't it ironic that man's large-scale burning of fossil fuels, from about 1850 (start of Industrial Revolution), has inadvertently raised CO2 from 285 to 415ppm, nearer to the optimum ~1000ppm for plant photosynthesis, thereby helping to feed Earth's burgeoning population while simultaneously 'greening' the planet? Reckless 'climate engineering' is unjustifiable, when all that is needed is to reduce energy use (demand), at the local, national and global levels, so that annual growth in energy consumption (proxy for waste-heat and black-carbon emissions), currently 2%, turns negative. A good start to this reduction, and a good example to set, would have been to NOT fly 30,000 people to last month's (November 2021) climate mega-meeting in Glasgow … https://ukcop26.org … which barked up the wrong tree as usual, vilifying life-giving CO2. EVERYBODY can contribute to ending the 'climate crisis', by making simple and painless small 'sacrifices' , e.g. fewer cars, flights, gadgets; reduce home heating, air conditioning, etc.. Meanwhile, transition to fission, solar and wind energy should continue because: (a) air pollution (CO2 is not a 'pollutant’) by vehicles and coal power stations is intolerable; and (b) mere decades of oil and gas remain.
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2021-6. These four PDF slides (15 minutes) prove: (1) our star, the Sun, governs global warming (and cooling); (2) CO2 is irrelevant to climate (but we need much more, to optimise agriculture and forest growth; learn CO2 truths at my https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803); (3) intermittent 'Modern Warming' from 1910 is Sun-driven and less than claimed. This contribution will make for interesting discussion at the imminent United Nations 26th (sic) Climate Change Conference (Glasgow, Oct 31 - Nov 12, 2021), titled 'Uniting the World to Tackle Climate Change" … https://ukcop26.org . How does one 'tackle' solar variations? Please don't get me wrong: we DO need to wean ourselves off fossil fuels and we DO need to abandon motor cars; but let's do it for the RIGHT REASONS, namely REAL pollution, which CO2 certainly is not, being essential for life (photosynthesis) and currently still only just above the 'starvation' limit for plants (see my 'CO2 truths'), unlike practically all of the last 500 million years, much richer in CO2. Pollution is dire: you can literally SEE the air in most cities. Petrol- and diesel VEHICLES produce (besides welcome CO2) nitrogen oxides, diesel smog, and tyre dust, poisoning YOUR air in towns and cities. ELECTRIC CARS are hideously damaging in terms of both mining of materials for batteries and disposal of the same batteries. In electricity-generating power stations, burning COAL emits, besides beneficial CO2, toxic nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, particulates, and ash. OIL and GAS are less polluting, but their growing scarcity (hence price) is problematic. Wind- and solar energy are hopelessly inefficient, non-dependable, land-hungry, and have major disposal issues (landfill, pollution). Nuclear power is the only viable way forward. Be certain: the REAL ENEMY is genuine pollution, not CO2. Wasting $$trillions to 'capture' and store CO2 is monumentally foolish and a criminal waste of public money; money that is urgently needed for REAL emergencies, like the imminent SUN-driven unstoppable sea-level rise, amounting to about 3 metres (sic) by 2120, caused by Antarctic ice collapse as usual … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/351112320
Roger Higgs
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This 500-word abstract (for a 2022 conference, as yet unchosen) proves CO2's non-involvement in global warming and future cooling. The accompanying slideshow (8 slides, 15 minutes) is at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354689928 . The abstract and slideshow were released 19th September 2021, six weeks before the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow on 31st October-12th November 2021 … https://ukcop26.org . As with my other ResearchGate climate contributions … https://www.researchgate.net/project/Climate-and-sea-level-change-by-Sun-not-CO2 … , this one is 'targeted' at fellow scientists and professionals, in the hope that they will quickly grasp CO2's obvious innocence and forward this knowledge to family, friends, colleagues and, especially, politicians, teachers and journalists. If you find what you read here helpful, please don't be afraid to click the 'Recommend' button (not easy to locate). Truth must triumph.
Roger Higgs
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Invited letter to Mr John Kerry, United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate. Released August 1, 2021. 3 pages, 10 minutes. Originally posted online at … https://www.aaeprototype.com/217-environment/man-made-global-warming-organizations-discussing-all-positions/world/2706-recommended-reading-about-co2-and-fossil-fuels-for-decision-makers … scroll to 2nd item listed under 'UK'; contains hotlinks.
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2021-5. Two simple slides (5-minute read). Be appalled. NB, AUGUST 2021: they've shifted it back again (see Slide 3).
Roger Higgs
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Roger Higgs
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Scroll down to read or download this 500-word abstract for a 2022 conference. Conference not yet selected. Manuscript in preparation.
Roger Higgs
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INTRODUCTION. In the abstract book (below, or download) of the 2021 'Climate Change in the Geological Record' conference of the Geological Society of London, please search 'Higgs' for my 500-WORD ABSTRACT. For my ACCOMPANYING POSTER (pdf, 10 slides, 10-minutes) & 60-second VIDEO introducing it (MP4, 2MB), click on 'Linked data''. The conference webpage at https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/05-GSL-Climate-Change says"This symposium is arranged in conjunction with the Geological Society’s scientific statement on climate change". My January 2021 critique of that appallingly flawed December 2020 'scientific statement' is at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350400042 & at https://principia-scientific.com/a-critique-of-geological-society-of-london-scientific-statement … The anti-CO2 bias of the programme is discussed here … https://principia-scientific.com/geological-society-of-london-to-host-heavily-biased-conference/ … Please forward this ResearchGate link to colleagues, friends, family, teachers and politicians. The more people that learn the climate truth the better for society. Please see also my 1st August 2021 invited letter to John Kerry, United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate … https://www.allaboutenergy.net/337-environment/man-made-global-warming-skeptical-of-serious-anthropogenic-global-warming/europe/2707-global-warming-and-cooling-mimic-sun-s-magnetic-activity-not-co2
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2021-3. On 28th Dec 2020, the Journal of the Geological Society published “Geological Society of London Scientific Statement: what the geological record tells us about our present and future climate” by Lear et al.. My critique, here on ResearchGate, also appeared on two websites in January 2021 … Friends of Science … https://blog.friendsofscience.org/2021/01/09/a-critique-of-geological-society-of-london-scientific-statement/ … and Principia Scientific International … https://principia-scientific.com/a-critique-of-geological-society-of-london-scientific-statement/ PLEASE DOWNLOAD the critique for 'live' links.
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2021-2. Any one of these 5 simple slides alone proves that the Sun, not CO2, governs Earth's surface temperature. Collectively the 5 are unassailable. Please understand: like all geologists, I'm a passionate environmentalist; we adore nature. CO2 is not a pollutant; on the contrary … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803 . Genuine pollution (plastics; toxic city air due to vehicle emissions; etc.) is EASILY tackled, e.g. by banning vehicles from cities. And, yes, we do need to transition from fossil fuels, but not because of CO2, instead because they will become too expensive as they grow scarcer. The future is nuclear energy (hopefully fusion, soon), not hopelessly inefficient solar 'parks' and wind 'farms', which moreover wreck vast areas of essential farmland and wildlife habitat. Please consider pressing the 'Recommend' button (blue arrow, on the right). The more scientists denouncing the preposterous belief (sic) in CO2-driven 'Anthropogenic (man-made) Global Warming' (AGW), the more 'civilians' will take notice and start questioning the dogma; maybe even politicians and opinion-moulding journalists.
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2021-1. In 5 minutes you will see that the United Nations IPCC has induced governments to waste $$trillions on needless efforts (‘carbon capture’, underground storage, wind ‘farms’, solar ‘parks’) to ‘tackle’ CO2, a trace gas which is not only irrelevant to climate but, in fact, crucial for increasing crop yields (via rising CO2 ‘fertilisation’ of photosynthesis) to feed 8 billion humans. See also, uploaded 7th January 2021 … https://blog.friendsofscience.org/2021/01/09/a-critique-of-geological-society-of-london-scientific-statement/ … Please consider pressing the 'Recommend' button (blue arrow, on the right). The more scientists denouncing the preposterous 'man-made warming' fallacy (a mere belief, like any other religion), the more 'civilians' will take notice and start thinking for themselves at last; maybe even politicians and opinion-moulding journalists. FOR AN EQUALLY CONVINCING 5-minute visual proof of CO2's innocence, see my next Technical Note 2012-2 (also Jan 2021) … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348689944 … FOR THE FULL FACTS (i.e. truths) on CO2, see my Technical Note 2019-11, updated in Feb 2021, my ResearchGate 'best-seller' (>24,000 viewings) … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803
Roger Higgs
added 4 research items
The 'basic' 11-page version of this document (bullet points only, without sources) is by far my most popular item here on ResearchGate (32,000 viewings to Nov 2021) … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803
Roger Higgs
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INVITED KEYNOTE LECTURE, 9th December 2020, ‘Climate Changes in the Geological Past’ Conference, Polish Geological Institute, online, 9-11 Dec 2020. ALTERNATIVE TITLE of my talk: 'Global warming & imminent 3-metre sea-level rise by Sun’s 1937-2004 super Grand Maximum, not CO2'. DOWNLOAD the self-guiding slideshow (PDF 12MB) by clicking on 'Linked data'; it requires ~15 minutes to grasp the essence and 30-45 minutes for a full understanding. You'll be left in no doubt that the UNITED NATIONS IPCC has misled the public for decades, inducing governments to waste trillions of taxpayer-dollars on needless efforts to reduce and store life-giving CO2, and causing psychological damage ('climate anxiety', CO2 phobia) to an entire generation of humans.
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-11. One single slide, a 2-minute read. Please see my other climate notes here on ResearchGate. WHO AM I? A published geologist, 66 years old, with 30+ years of worldwide geological experience as an INDEPENDENT consultant, I've spent the last 5 years on unpaid (i.e. unbiased) literature research on ALL scientific aspects of Earth's endless climate change, including geology, astrophysics, oceanography & palaeoclimatology, unlike the opportunistic superficial new field of 'climate science', mostly GIGO computer modellers studying only the last 150 years (a mere 30-MILLIONTH of Earth's 4.5-billion-year history), whose careers DEPEND on public belief (sic) that present warming is by man-made CO2 rather than our Sun's 1937-2004 strongest 'Grand Maximum' in 10,000 years.
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-10. These 7 sequential, self-explanatory slides expose the disingenuity of the IPCC, 'Sun deniers'. On the say-so of this geology-ignoring (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331974185) agenda-driven UNITED NATIONS agency, governments around the world have spent trillions of YOUR tax dollars, and plan to spend tens of trillions more, on needless and ineffective efforts to remove life-giving CO2 from our atmosphere. Here's the CO2 truth (25,000 views) … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803_33_bullet_points_prove_global_warming_by_the_Sun_not_CO2_by_a_GEOLOGIST_for_a_change … and a my latest contribution (as of March 2021) … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348689944_Global_Warming_By_Surging_Sun_Not_CO2_5_Slides_5_Minutes
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-9. This 5-minute read proves climate change (including current global warming) is driven by our inconstant star, the Sun; CO2 is irrelevant. Naturally the UNITED NATIONS Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) denies this, due to its grotesque in-built bias, i.e. lack of geologists (of all people; see my https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331974185) and extreme over-representation of 'climate scientists', a new profession of opportunists, largely GIGO computer modellers studying only the last 150 years since reliable thermometer records began (a mere 30-MILLIONTH of Earth history), whose careers DEPEND on public belief that global warming (perfectly natural and, like additional 'plant-food' CO2, hugely beneficial) is man-made and dangerous. This colossal IPCC blunder (or subterfuge?) is catastrophic for global society's wellbeing, and is costing western economies $$trillions in needless efforts to reduce harmless (life-giving) CO2; see my https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341622566. WHO AM I? A 66-years-old published independent geologist with a doctorate in geology (University of Oxford 1982-86) and 35 years' worldwide geological consulting experience, I am now in my 5th year of self-funded (hence impartial) literature research, integrating ALL scientific aspects of climate change, including geology, archaeology, oceanography, meteorology, glaciology, astrophysics, palaeoclimatology and 'climate science'. For previous versions of this contribution see my https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317333344 and https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318722766.
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-8. One single slide, 3 minutes. The UNITED NATIONS Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that CO2 controls Earth's climate and that the Sun has minuscule or zero effect (IPCC 2013 Summary for Policymakers Fig. SPM.5). Do you agree? Glance at my slide. Obviously the IPCC has it precisely backwards: in truth the Sun overwhelmingly controls our climate and CO2 has little or no effect. Conclusion? IPCC is either lying or incompetent. Either way, they've shamelessly instilled absurd 'climate anxiety' into an entire generation of trusting young people and caused governments to waste trillions of taxpayer (that's YOU) dollars supposedly 'tackling' perfectly natural Sun-driven climate change, wrecking precious agricultural and park lands with unneeded and hopelessly inefficient wind 'farms' and solar 'parks', and trying to bury harmless CO2 underground. Yet CO2, source of all life (photosynthesis), is still near its lowest level in 500 million years, only just above plant-starvation level. Before our very eyes, rising CO2 is blessedly greening Earth and raising crop production, giving hope for feeding our 8 billion (rapidly growing) human population. You couldn't make up the farcical predicament to which the self-serving IPCC Sun-deniers have reduced us. Instead of celebrating we pathetically cringe and throw away $$trillions, demolishing power stations, ruining oil companies and national economies, and denying secure affordable energy to billions of impoverished people. For IPCC ineptitude see my https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331974185. CO2 truths: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803. Demolition of 'man-made global warming' in 500 words: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341622566. Three-minute proof of solar control of climate: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343818917.
Roger Higgs
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Extended abstract for a 2021 conference. These 5 pages, costing you only 10-15 minutes, will change your life. WHO AM I? A 66-years-old published independent geologist (sedimentologist) with a doctorate in geology (University of Oxford 1982-86) and 35 years' worldwide geological consulting experience, I'm now in my 5th year of self-funded (hence unbiased) literature research, integrating ALL scientific aspects of climate change, including geology, archaeology, oceanography, meteorology, glaciology, astrophysics, palaeoclimatology, and 'climate science' (opportunistic 'garbage in garbage out' computer modelling of merely the last 170 years since reliable worldwide temperature records began ~1850, in a world that's 26 million times older, 4.5 billion years).
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-7: ''MAN-MADE WARMING' DEMOLISHED IN 500 WORDS (2 pages, plus references), by a geologist, not a movie star, or Prince Charles, or Al Gore; or the agenda-driven BBC, Guardian, Greenpeace, Extinction Rebellion, etc.; nor a 'climate scientist', i.e. computer modeller untrained in geology who looks back a mere 150 years (start of global thermometer coverage) in a world 30 MILLION times older, and whose career DEPENDS on proving 'Anthropogenic Global Warming' (AGW). How DARE all these unqualified people speak publically on a subject (climate) of which they know little or nothing? The arrogance and hubris are breathtaking. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says ongoing warming is due to man's CO2 emissions. The 3 pillars on which they base this claim are unscientific and quickly disproved here (10-minute read). WHO AM I? A 66-years-old published independent geologist (sedimentologist) with a doctorate in geology (University of Oxford 1982-86) and 35 years' worldwide geological consulting experience, I'm now in my 5th year of self-funded (hence unbiased) literature research, integrating ALL scientific aspects of climate change, including geology, archaeology, oceanography, meteorology, glaciology, astrophysics, palaeoclimatology, and 'climate science' (computer modelling, 'Garbage in, garbage out', like coronavirus models). I began this full-time unpaid quest for climate truth in 2015, fully expecting to verify what the IPCC and the media were saying (shouting) about CO2 being a supposed 'pollutant'. How wrong I was. As you will see here, the Emperor has no clothes. The Sun controls our climate. CO2, enabler of all life (photosynthesis), is irrelevant. It's time to stop the trillion-dollar AGW runaway gravy train. There is no 'climate crisis'. On the contrary, there has never been a better time to be alive. CELEBRATE the (slightly) warmer average temperatures while they last (Sun-driven cooling will begin about 2050). Sad controlled Greta needs to go back to school and learn to think for herself. QUESTION EVERYTHING. My fellow scientists (I mean REAL scientists, i.e. impartial seekers of truth, unlike opportunistic 'climate scientists' who will only retain their jobs as long as they can scare society into belief (sic) in AGW), I urge you to stand up and fight for CO2 truth. School teachers ignorant of science are indoctrinating YOUR children and grandchildren with a climate fairy story (instilling 'climate anxiety', now added to virus anxiety), because politicians with little or no science education set the national school curriculum, on the say-so of the IPCC (biased and under-qualified … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331974185), an agency of the equally self-serving and shady United Nations, like the now infamous World Health Organisation. That same IPCC, on the say-so of 'climate scientists', has convinced clueless politicians to wreck landscapes and vital farmland by installing needless and chronically inefficient wind 'farms' and solar 'parks' (deliberately deceptive feel-good names), thereby increasing YOUR taxes and energy bills, based on the CO2 sky-dragon fallacy. Please consider pressing the 'Recommend' button (blue arrow, on the right). The more scientists denouncing the preposterous 'man-made warming' fallacy (a mere belief, like any other religion), the more 'civilians' will take notice and start thinking for themselves at last; maybe even politicians and opinion-moulding journalists.
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-6, just two self-explanatory slides. Make a cup of coffee and change your life in 5-10 minutes.
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-5. Appropriately uploaded on May Day, 1st May 2020, these 2 simple slides (plus notes & sources) will convince you in 5 minutes that: (1) the Sun drives climate change (good correlation, for the last 2,000 years and more, between graphs of Sun's output and Earth's temperature, delayed ~100 years by ocean thermal inertia ); (2) the Sun's just-ended Grand Maximum (GM; 1937-2004) will drive an imminent, unstoppable sea-level (SL) rise of about 3 metres (sic), delayed ~30 years by ocean circulation (arrival of 'overwarm' water at Antarctica, triggering a MISI or MICI ice-collapse event), a repeat of the well-documented global 'Romano-British Transgression' SL rise 1,600 years ago (a few decades after the previous GM) and of other GM-driven rises before that, every 500-2,000 years; and (3) the same GM guarantees a few more decades of likewise-delayed (ocean thermal inertia) global warming, perfectly natural and beneficial (fewer deaths by winter cold). IN STARK CONTRAST the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) missed the correlations, dismissed the ocean's influence, and denied any significant solar role in climate- and sea-level change (!), instead making the facile and societally ruinous conclusion that because CO2 increased markedly after 1850 (by man's CO2 emissions) at the same time as global warming occurred (albeit with superimposed, decades-long, up-down 'sawteeth', unlike CO2), then CO2 must be responsible! IPCC has blundered catastrophically. WHO AM I? A 66-years-old published independent geologist (sedimentologist) with a doctorate in geology (University of Oxford 1982-86) and 35 years' worldwide geological consulting experience, I'm now in my 5th year of full-time, self-funded (hence unbiased) literature research, integrating ALL scientific aspects of climate change, including geology, archaeology, oceanography, meteorology, glaciology, astrophysics, palaeoclimatology, and 'climate science' (mainly computer modelling of climate). I began this quest for climate truth in 2015, fully expecting to verify what the IPCC, the media and governments were saying (shouting) about CO2 being a supposed 'pollutant'. How wrong I was. If only the IPCC had bothered to speak to geologists … scroll down to my Technical Notes 2019-10 and 2018-2, here on ResearchGate.
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-4. Hello. I invite you to change your life by spending just 15 minutes (one coffee) examining these seven slides. WHO AM I? A 66-years-old published independent geologist (sedimentologist) with a doctorate in geology (University of Oxford 1982-86) and 35 years' worldwide geological consulting experience, I'm now in my 5th year of full-time, self-funded (hence unbiased) literature research, integrating ALL scientific aspects of climate change, including geology, archaeology, oceanography, meteorology, glaciology, astrophysics, palaeoclimatology, and 'climate science' (mainly computer modelling of climate). I began this quest for climate truth in 2015, fully expecting to verify what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the media and governments were saying (shouting) about CO2 being a supposed 'pollutant'. How wrong I was. In 15 minutes you will know why. I would be surprised if anyone, after carefully reading these 7 slides, still accepts IPCC's claim that our variable Sun is not the main driver of Earth's climate for the last 10,000 years, including the ongoing 'Modern Warming' (since 1800). Man's industrial CO2 emissions from ~1850, the start of the Industrial Revolution, just happen to coincide, by pure chance, with the 1700-1991 largest solar upswing in 10,000 years. The IPCC, by incriminating CO2, has committed the greatest scientific blunder in human history. Please encourage others to read this contribution. IF YOU HAVE ANY DIFFICULTY DOWNLOADING THE PDF, please email me for a copy … rogerhiggs@hotmail.com
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-3. A single slide, aimed at scientists and non-scientists alike, says it all in 2 minutes. For my other brief contributions over the last three years, based on full-time, unpaid (hence impartial) literature research on ALL scientific aspects of climate- and sea-level change (geology, archaeology, palaeoclimatology, oceanography, astrophysics, meteorology, 'climate science', etc.), by an independent geologist (me) with 40 years of global experience before and after my doctorate (Oxford), please click on my Project "Climate- and sea-level change caused by Sun not CO2" and scroll down. Ongoing GlOBAL WARMING (since 1820AD) is entirely natural, driven by the Sun. The Sun’s biggest increase (1700-1991) in 2,000 years matches the strongest warming (1820-2017) in 2,000 years, delayed ~100 years by ocean thermal inertia (slowness of mixing). The delay has varied with time and is now ~75 years. This ‘Modern Warming’ is the recovery from the Little Ice Age, coldest episode of the entire Holocene interglacial period (the last 11,650 years). We are now returning toward temperatures that were not unusual in the 'Holocene Climatic Optimum' (the clue is in the name, "optimum", for humans). Modern Warming will continue until ~2065, corresponding to the Modern Solar Grand Maximum’s 1991 magnetic peak, plus the ~75-year time-lag. Enjoy the slight extra warmth (throughout human history far more people have died of cold than heat). Rejoice at Earth’s continued greening and increasing agricultural productivity thanks to CO2, now rising clear of plant-starvation level but still far below normal levels of the past 500 million years. Cooling will then start ~2065, for at least 29 years, i.e. the 29-year solar decline from 1991 to date (2020). There has never been a better time to be alive than today, in terms of average human longevity and proportion of humanity in poverty. However, there IS bad news: the imminent (in fact underway), unstoppable, Sun-driven sea-level rise of about 3 metres by 2100 (see my other contributions here on ResearchGate, especially this one, uploaded last month … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339875642. Shockingly, idiotically, based entirely on the biased and under-qualified (no geologists! - see my Technical Note 2019-10) IPCC's insistence that life-giving CO2 is a 'pollutant', our governments are throwing $$ trillions away, 'tackling' an imaginary 'climate emergency' and a fictitious CO2 enemy, instead of preparing for this inevitable large sea-level rise, e.g. relocation of the world's entire coastal infrastructure (airports, harbours, military installations, nuclear power stations, businesses, homes, etc., etc.) and hundreds of millions of people to higher ground.
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This 3-page abstract (please scroll down or click 'Download') provides yet more proof of: (1) CO2's innocence (see my "30 simple 'Bullet Points' prove global warming by the Sun, not CO2: by a geologist for a change", Technical Note 2019-11 … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803, >21,000 viewings in 11 months); and (2) an imminent ~3-METRE sea-level rise before 2100, a repeat of the Early Dark Ages ~3m global sea-level rise, and likewise Sun-driven, nothing to do with man's industrial emissions of life-giving CO2, which by pure chance overlapped the modern solar Grand Maximum, an accidental spurious correlation (e.g. my Technical Notes 2019-17, 18 & 19; and 2020-1). THIS ABSTRACT is for an invited keynote lecture at a Polish Geological Institute (Warsaw) 'Climate Change in the Geological Past' conference in March 2020, postponed until November due to coronavirus (email me for the conference programme, rogerhiggs@hotmail.com). The IPCC, by neglecting to consult geologists and archaeologists (my Technical Notes 2018-2, 2019-10), has precipitated the most expensive scientific blunder ever. Trillions of dollars currently being wasted 'tackling' beneficial CO2 should urgently be redirected to preparing for the coming Sun-driven sea-level rise, including (A) relocation of civilian and military ports and airports, nuclear power stations, businesses, homes, etc., and (B) migration of tens of millions of sea-level refugees. Anarchy in many places within 50 years is very likely. FOR MORE on this topic please see my presentation offered to the European Geosciences Union for its May 2020 annual mega-meeting in Vienna (the abstract was rejected for being 'badly written') … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338556345 (uploaded January 2020). The Vienna meeting was cancelled (coronavirus).
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-2. One single slide, designed for specialists AND the general public, by a geologist (me). Change your life in 5 minutes by comparing these 3 simple published graphs, covering the last 2,000 years. Keep in mind that the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is focussed on only the last 150 years, "since records began", meaning reliable THERMOMETER records. However, our Earth is 30 million times older than this (4.5 billion years old). Amazingly, the IPCC does not consult any geologists (see my Technical Notes 2018-2, 2019-10 & 2019-11). Also bear in mind that the IPCC deems both the Sun and our ocean (specifically its vast thermal inertia, i.e. slowness to react to changes in heat input from the sun) unimportant in climate change (yes, really). Yet the Sun's magnetic output, controlling cloudiness (Svensmark theory) and hence the amount of solar warming of the ocean, more than doubled in the 20th century (Lockwood et al. 1999). The corresponding warming effect is delayed about 100 years by ocean thermal inertia (see Graphs 1 and 2 here). In other words, we have several more decades of 'ocean-delayed' solar-driven global warming to come, until eventual cooling begins, due to the Sun's downturn after its 1991 peak of magnetic output. NB THE 300AD SOLAR 'GRAND MAXIMUM' (GM; GRAPH 1), UNSURPASSED UNTIL THE MODERN GM (20TH CENTURY), GAVE RISE TO EXCEPTIONAL WARMTH ABOUT 100 YEARS LATER (~400AD; GRAPH 2), ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID SEA-LEVEL RISE OF ~3 METRES WITHIN 100 YEARS, VARIABLY KNOWN AROUND THE WORLD AS THE 'ROTTNEST', 'ROMANO-BRITISH', 'DUNKIRK II', 'ST FIRMIN', 'GILBERT V' AND 'WULFERT TRANSGRESSION' (e.g. see my Technical Note 2020-1 here on ResearchGate). THUS, DUE TO THE EVEN STRONGER(?) MODERN GM, SEA LEVEL WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY AGAIN RISE ~3 METRES, BEFORE 2100, again largely by an Antarctic ice-collapse event. The coming Sun-driven sea-level rise is entirely natural (cf. Fairbridge 1961), nothing to do with CO2, whose concurrent increase during the solar build-up to the Modern GM was purely accidental (Graphs 1 and 3); prior to this fluke post-1850 coincidence, the CO2 and temperature graphs fail to correlate (in fact they ANTI-correlate for much of the time), proving that CO2 is a non-participant in climate change (and therefore sea-level change).See also my Technical Notes 2020-3 (last 2,000 years in more detail) and 2020-4 (last 10,000 years). Enjoy the continuing warming while it lasts, as we continue to recover from the Little Ice Age (see graph 2), the coldest episode of the entire Holocene interglacial period (the last 11,650 years). We are now thankfully returning to temperatures more typical of the 'Holocene Climatic OPTIMUM' (google it; the clue is in the name), when previous civilisations flourished, only to decline in the next Sun-controlled cold episode. We have all been made fools of by the IPCC. FOR MORE DETAILS, and covering a longer time interval (the last 10,000 years), please see my later Technical Notes 2020-4, 2020-4 & 2020-5 here on ResearchGate, and also 2019-17, all brief and simple, and all in slide format for convenient laptop viewing. Please consider pressing the 'Recommend' button (blue arrow, on the right). The more scientists denouncing the preposterous 'man-made warming' fallacy (a mere belief, like any other religion), the more 'civilians' will take notice and start thinking for themselves at last; maybe even politicians and opinion-moulding journalists.
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2020-1, based on 500-WORD ABSTRACT, SUBMITTED JANUARY 2020, FOR EUROPEAN GEOSCIENCES UNION (EGU) GENERAL ASSEMBLY, VIENNA, MAY 2020 (click 'Linked data'). This abstract had little chance of acceptance, given the EGU's close alignment with the CO2-denigrating United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) … https://www.egu.eu/news/438/egus-reaction-to-ipcc-report-on-global-warming-of-15oc/ MY ACCOMPANYING 10-SLIDE PRESENTATION, designed for scientists and non-scientists alike, is based on my 4 years (to date) of full-time UNPAID (therefore unbiased) literature research on ALL aspects of climate- and sea-level change (geology, geophysics, archaeology, glaciology, oceanography, meteorology, astrophysics, etc.), backed by >30 years as an INDEPENDENT (impartial) global geological consultant since my 1982-86 doctorate in geology (University of Oxford). These 10 slides take no more than 20-30 minutes to fully absorb. You will then understand why the trillions of dollars being wasted by our governments needlessly and ineffectually 'tackling' harmless CO2 should immediately be redirected to preparing for the imminent unstoppable SUN-DRIVEN metre-scale sea-level rise, i.e. planning for the migration of hundreds of millions of coast-dwelling 'sea-level refugees' in the coming decades, and for the relocation of society's entire coastal infrastructure (harbours, airports, nuclear power stations, factories, businesses, homes, etc.). ABSTRACT REJECTED 17-2-20, 17 days after the 31-1-20 official notification date. "Reason: The abstract is badly written and …there is a major mis-conception of the use of a local sea-level change ("Dunkirk II") as a global sea-level indicator." MY RESPONSE 18-2-18: "I wish to comment on your decision … on behalf of the European Geosciences Union (EGU), Europe's largest geology-geophysics society, to reject my attached abstract … I reject both of the reasons given, namely … Badly written? The abstract is DENSELY written, to include as much information as possible, given the EGU's restrictive 500-word limit and the EGU's abstract format which excludes paragraphs … This does not mean that the abstract is badly written; in fact the English is impeccable. Regardless, a badly written abstract is no justification for rejection: it's the science that counts … Major mis-conception (sic)? … On the contrary, my abstract clearly says that the widely and diversely documented c.350-450AD solar-driven global sea-level rise of 2 to 3 metres has various local names. Quoting my abstract: This rise … is Godwin's (1943) 'Romano-British transgression' (RBT), aka Dunkirk II (Low Countries, explaining ~410-450AD Frisian-Anglo-Saxon exodus to Britain), St Firmin (France), Gilbert V (Pacific) and Wulfert (USA). Thus it is your reviewer, rather than me, who is under a misconception. Please be aware that, prior to submission … my abstract was peer-reviewed by two professional geologists of more than 30-years experience each, one of them world-renowned for his studies of Holocene sea levels, and the other a well-known leading authority on plate tectonics … I put it to you that the (delayed) rejection of my abstract amounts to deliberate suppression of the politically incorrect view that the coming sea-level rise (a repetition of the c.350-450AD one) has nothing to do with CO2. This is anathema to the EGU, with its strong support for the IPCC … Moreover, by rejecting the abstract, the EGU is depriving its membership, and the scientific community at large, of the opportunity to judge for themselves the validity of my interpretations of an exhaustive literature review revealing sound multi-disciplinary evidence for an imminent sea-level crisis worse than the IPCC's worst-case scenario (which they incorrectly blame on CO2 instead of the recently ended solar Grand Maximum of 1937-2004)." EGU REPLY 20-2-20: "Your abstract … was not clear and it did not meet basic standards of scientific quality. Specific feedback regarding the science follows: The mis-conception of the author on sea-level change indicators is linked to the evident ignorance of the difference between local and global sea-level changes … The local data put forward by the author are indicative of relative sea-level change and should be corrected for local land mass altitudinal changes (land isostasy). … When put in a global context, this shows rates on the order of 10 cm, not several meters, at a global scale. … With best regards … Dr Susanne Buiter, EGU Programme Committee Chair GA2020." Does EGU REALLY think that someone with 45 years of global experience in sedimentary geology and BSc, MSc & DPhil degrees in sedimentology could possibly be 'ignorant' of the difference between relative- & absolute sea level? Another supreme irony: the EGU, a society for geologists (and other geoscientists), with about 20,000 members worldwide, strongly endorses the climate beliefs (sic) of IPCC, an organisation that ignores geologists … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331974185_IPCC_next_assessment_report_AR6_due_2022_-_784_authors_but_again_no_geologists
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-19. This 13-slide presentation, designed for scientists and non-scientists alike, is based on my 4 years (to date) of full-time unpaid (therefore unbiased) literature research on ALL aspects of climate- and sea-level change (e.g. geology, geophysics, archaeology, glaciology, oceanography, meteorology, astrophysics), backed by >30 years as an INDEPENDENT geological consultant since my 1982-86 doctorate in geology (University of Oxford). These 12 slides take no more than 30 minutes to fully absorb. By the end, you will know that the United Nations INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) IS GUILTY OF TWO COLOSSAL SCIENTIFIC BLUNDERS, the most expensive mistakes of all time, costing society trillions of wasted dollars ‘tackling’ innocent CO2. IPCC's two errors (among others) are: i) dismissal of overwhelming global geological & archaeological evidence for several 1- to 3-metre sea-level rises between 1,000 & 6,000 years ago. IPCC instead claims the 30 centimetre rise since 1800 is unique in >2,000 years & therefore must be man-made (CO2); and ii) failure to notice the multi-decade time lag between changes in solar output & corresponding changes in global warming/cooling, caused by our vast ocean's thermal inertia (slowness to react to heat input). Please forward the link to colleagues, friends and family. We urgently need to get the truth about life-giving CO2, and about the imminent (before 2100) unstoppable ~3-metre sea-level rise (driven not by CO2, of course, but by the sun's just-ended 'Grand Maximum' event of 1937-2004, dismissed as unimportant by IPCC), into schools, universities, governments and the media. For a private presentation of these findings, please email me (rogerhiggs@hotmail.com). For CO2 TRUTHS see my Technical Note 2019-11, here on ResearchGate, entitled '27 bullet points prove global warming by the sun, not CO2: by a GEOLOGIST for a change' (nearly 17,000 viewings since uploading in April 2019).
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-18. This 4-page discussion (10-15 minutes) will open your eyes to IPCC methods, including their near-complete lack of geological input, such that IPCC chronically lacks time-perspective beyond 150 years ago, "since records began" (i.e. start of reliable thermometer & sea-level tide-gauge measurements ~1850), a mere 30-millionth (sic) of Earth's 4-5-billion-year history. See also see my Technical Note 2019-10 here on ResearchGate … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331974185_IPCC_next_assessment_report_AR6_due_2022_-_784_authors_but_again_no_geologists
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-17. This supersedes Notes 2018-6 (with 5,000 reads), 2018-4 (14,000) & 2019-2. CHANGE YOUR LIFE IN 15 MINUTES by listening to a geologist (the IPCC has none) rather than journalists, politicians, school teachers and 'activists', most of whom mean well but are misinformed. These 8 SIMPLE SLIDES prove the Sun, not CO2, drives climate change. Earth's warmings (and coolings) lag ~75 years* behind changes in the sun's magnetic output (which controls cloudiness; google Svensmark). This time-lag, which I previously estimated as 25 years* (Technical Note 2018-4), is due to our vast ocean's 'memory' (thermal inertia), ignored by IPCC (set up by the UN to prove man-made warming). So, even though the Sun is now declining since its 1991 peak magnetic output, global warming will continue until c.2065 (75-year lag). Then cooling will occur for at least 28 years (corresponding to the solar decline from 1991 to present day 2019). By pure chance MAN'S INDUSTRIAL CO2 EMISSIONS began (about 1850) during a solar upswing (ending the Little Ice Age, luckily for us). The simultaneous rise in CO2 and global temperature is a 'false correlation', like the increasing price of beer or shortness of skirts. GREENPEACE and EXTINCTION REBELLION protesting global warming is as ridiculous as demanding the government 'do something' about gravity, or the distance to Mars. The Sun's latest Grand Maximum event 1937-2004 (the first in more than 1,000 years) climaxed in 1991, therefore GLOBAL WARMING WILL END AROUND 2075 (75-year lag, above). Earth will be between 0.5 and 1 degree centigrade warmer than now (see Slide 1 graph 2). That's excellent, because FAR more people die of cold than heat. THERE IS NO 'CLIMATE EMERGENCY'. Think for yourselves. Demand proof of what you are told by under-informed sources (BBC, Guardian, etc.), especially those that are intrinsically biased (IPCC etc.). Stop complaining. Be happy. There has never been a better time to be alive. Life expectancy is the longest ever. CO2, vital for all life, is innocent. Instead of demonstrating, VOTE for any political party that recognises man does not control climate. If you must demonstrate, choose REAL PROBLEMS like plastic waste, toxic city air (vehicle emissions of soot and nitrogen oxides) and overpopulation. *SEE TECHNICAL NOTES 2019-19 & 2020-5 FOR REVISED LAG TIME, ~60 YEARS.
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ABSTRACT ONLY. Submitted 26th Sept 2019, for American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Annual Conference, Houston, June 2020. REJECTED 9th Dec 2019. No full manuscript yet. For illustrations of some of the archaeological examples mentioned here, see my Technical Note 2019-16 here on ResearchGate.
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HAS THIS WEBPAGE BEEN BLOCKED IN CHINA? How come it's had only 46 viewings in 12 months, compared to 22,000 viewings of the English version in 16 months? For the English version, please see my Technical Note 2019-11 here on ResearchGate: '33 simple bullet points prove global warming by the sun, not CO2: by a GEOLOGIST for a change' … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-16, a single self-explanatory slide as usual. Here I show that, in my opinion, Dr Mörner is mistaken, and that the coming sea-level rise (in fact already underway; see my very brief Technical Notes 2019-4 to 7) will reach 3 to 5 metres before 2100. At least Mörner and I agree on CO2's innocence. However, today (6th June 2019) the BBC, parroting IPCC's insistence that CO2 is the Antichrist (easily disproven; see my Technical Note 2019-11), says 'Chancellor Philip Hammond has warned Theresa May less money will be available for schools, policing and the NHS - if she pushes ahead with plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by the year 2050. In a letter, Mr Hammond tells the prime minister that the proposals would cost the UK more than £1tn. The paper says Mrs May still intends to introduce the legislation in Parliament by next week, hoping it will become "one of her most important legacies" as she prepares to leave Downing Street'. That's another trillion pounds … for nothing. That's quite the legacy Mrs May: police force decimated; all Brexit promises broken; and now to destroy the economy.
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-15. Change your life. Make a pot of coffee and read these three self-explanatory slides. It'll take 20 minutes. The United Nations IPCC is 'out of its depth' (pun intended).
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-14. One single self-explanatory slide, as usual. In a world of CONSTANT climate change by a combination of Earth's orbital variations, volcanism and solar fluctuations, and certainly NOT by CO2 (ask any geologist; see also my Technical Notes 2019-2 & 11 to 13, here on ResearchGate), why would anyone expect sea level to be static? In fact sea level is rising; and the rate is accelerating (Technical Notes 2019-1 & 3 to 8).
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-13. Self-explanatory single slide. For more on the evident 25-year lag-time (due to 'ocean memory', neglected by IPCC) between changes in solar-magnetic output and corresponding changes in Earth's average surface temperature, please see my Technical Notes 2018-4, 2018-6 and 2019-2, here on ResearchGate. Please see numerous other 2018 & 2019 contributions, likewise mostly single slides, not only on the innocence of CO2 but also on the imminent metre-scale sea-level rise resulting from the sun's recently ended 'Grand Maximum' (c. 1937-2004). NOTE ADDED 3RD NOVEMBER 2019 … see my Technical Notes 2019-17 & 19 for revised correlations indicating the time-lag is c.80 years rather than 25.
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-12 is a single self-explanatory slide. NB Long-term (millennia) Holocene temperature is “obliquity-led, because eccentricity is low at present, and therefore precession is weak” (Ellis 2018), i.e. Earth’s long-term (5,000-100,000yrs) temperature driver is Milankovitch orbital variations (see Graph 3, declining obliquity). Superimposed higher-frequency (centuries) temperature oscillations are due to solar fluctuations. Solar 'Grand Maxima' match global-warming events & sea-level peaks (both lagging decades behind due to ocean thermal inertia) since at least 2000BC, proving that post-1850 industrial CO2’s coincidence with ‘Modern Warming’ is pure chance (‘spurious correlation’). Although thermometer-measured global mean temperatures of the decade 2000-09 were "warmer than during ~75% of the Holocene”, they did not exceed proxy peak Holocene values (Marcott et al. 2013). From ~4,000BC to 1300AD, solar Grand Maxima were frequent (Graph 1) and, therefore, so were metre-scale sea-level oscillations (Graph 6). Fluctuating sea level was simply THE NORM for people of those times, spanning several Holocene civilisations and the entire Dark Ages. Nobody drowned by sea-level rise: rates of rise were never even close to being life-threatening (e.g. 3m rise in 100yr is an average of 3cm/yr). In great contrast, during the last 1,000 years, a period of abnormal solar quiescence (Graph 1, after 1000AD), there were NO solar Grand Maxima … until the just-ended Modern Grand Maximum (Graph 1) of 1937-2004. For the currently accelerating rate of sea-level rise, which will total ~3 metres by 2100 (i.e. worse than IPCC's 'worst-case' scenario but, of course, nothing to do with CO2), see my Technical Notes 2019-3 to -7, 2019-15, 2019-17 and 2020-1. GOVERNMENTS, YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-11, updated November 2021. Firstly, please be aware that ALL GEOLOGISTS ARE ENVIRONMENTALISTS; we adore nature and abhor pollution. Welcome. You're one of >30,000 people to visit since I posted this item in April 2019. After reading these 33 simple 'bullet points', you will know that: (1) harmless CO2 is certainly not a 'pollutant' (as if!); and (2) it's lunacy to waste trillions of taxpayer dollars on 'carbon capture and storage' (CCS) that is both needless (CO2's small greenhouse effect is negated by feedbacks omitted in 'climate models') and undesirable (man's CO2 additions have made Earth greener, stimulating vital crop yields and forest growth). Nevertheless WE DO NEED TO TRANSITION AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS (i.e. oil, gas, coal; NB I'm a geology consultant for oil companies), but not due to life-giving CO2, instead because they will become too expensive as they grow scarcer. THE SOLUTION IS SIMPLE: (A) freeze fossil-fuel usage at current levels (no new fossil-fuel-burning power stations or industry); (B) ban petrol & diesel vehicles & the REAL pollution they emit (nitrous oxides, unburnt diesel, tyre dust, etc.) immediately in cities & towns; (C) rapidly expand nuclear power (it produces ZERO air pollution; ample barren locations exist for radioactive-waste storage) while we … (D) urgently accelerate development of clean nuclear FUSION. We also must BAN PLASTIC food and drink containers (produced from oil & gas; again YOU drive the demand). PLEASE SHARE THESE 'BULLET POINTS', which collectively prove CO2 did not cause the 'Modern Global Warming'. I have assembled these 33 unquestionable FACTS (as opposed to INTERPRETATIONS, always open to question) during my 6 years, to date (Oct 2021), of self-funded (thus unbiased) full-time literature research on ALL the scientific disciplines relevant to climate- and sea-level change (i.e. geology, geophysics, archaeology, astrophysics, meteorology, oceanography, physics, chemistry, etc.), backed by 30 years as a geological consultant, preceded by a doctorate (Oxford 1982-86), MSc (Calgary) and BSc (London), all in geology. Contrast the IPCC's 2013-14 report and upcoming 2022 report, each with more than 700 authors, NONE (or perhaps 1) of them a geologist (see my 1-page Technical Note 2019-10 here on ResearchGate). We urgently need to get the truth about CO2 out to the public and especially into schools and universities, to end the brainwashing of YOUR children and grandchildren with the 'CO2 is a pollutant' fallacy. The money squandered needlessly and ineffectually 'tackling' beneficial(!) CO2 should instead be spent alleviating GENUINE problems faced by world society, including overpopulation, poverty, famine, REAL pollution (auto emissions, chemical spills, plastics, sewage, etc, etc), and an imminent major SUN-driven sea-level rise (see below). If YOUR child's school is indoctrinating him/her with the belief (sic) that CO2 is humanity's enemy, then unless you complain you are complicit. See especially Bullet 24 if you live near sea level: a big rise (2 to 3 METRES) is indeed coming, in fact possibly already began, driven by the Sun, not CO2, and ENDING by 2100. For literature SOURCES, please click on 'Linked data'. For a GERMAN TRANSLATION of an earlier version of the first 25 of these 28 bullet points, see … https://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/2019/06/18/25-punkte-die-beweisen-dass-co2-keine-globale-erwaermung-verursacht-diesmal-von-einem-geologen/ For a CHINESE TRANSLATION, see … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334823689
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-10. One single slide, a 5-minute read. One arguable exception to my claim of no geologists in IPCC's writing team for its upcoming report is a widely respected lecturer at Northern Arizona University, in its School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability (a name that hints at a possible predisposition to blame global warming on man's CO2 emissions). After careful google research, I conclude that this person is only loosely definable as a geologist, of a highly specialised kind. Googling his name along with the word 'geologist' in May 2019 yielded no returns in which that string of words is used. The individual is classified on one website as a paleolimnologist and glacial geomorphologist; elsewhere he describes himself as a "professor of climatology and glacial geology". The professor specialises in only the last few thousand years of Earth's 4.5-billion-year history. He is co-author of a special volume on the climate of just the last 2,000 years, published March 2019.
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-2. See the downloadable single slide below and be outraged at IPCC's failure to include any geologists, of all people, among the 838 (sic) authors of its Fifth Assessment Report (2013-14). Why have we geologists remained silent for so long, allowing this to happen? The facile and fallacious 'man-made-global-warming' story has gone essentially unchallenged for much too long. IT'S TIME FOR GEOLOGISTS TO STAND UP AND BE COUNTED. Please copy the slide and show it in your next lecture. Governments, acting on the grossly underqualified (no geologists!) IPCC's appallingly flawed advice, are irresponsibly wasting trillions of dollars trying to minimally reduce BENEFICIAL CO2 ('plant food') that has nothing to do with climate change (CO2 is a PRODUCT, not cause, of ocean warming). If my meticulously researched predictions are right (see my other contributions here on ResearchGate), these $$trillions will be sorely needed to move populations and infrastructure (factories, ports, airports, nuclear power plants, etc) out of cities and nations that will be largely under water within 30-50 years due to an imminent natural SOLAR-DRIVEN sea-level rise of about 3 METRES that will be societally catastrophic (massive human migrations; likely anarchy, wars & global banking collapse). The last time such a large sea-level rise occurred was the Dark Ages. We'll know within 3 years: if I'm right, by January 2021 the current trivial rate of sea-level rise (3mm/year) will have tripled (1cm/yr) at the very least. Let's all dearly hope I'm wrong; but after 30 years as a consultant making impartial geological predictions for oil companies, I've never been more confident in a forecast. FOR AN UPDATE ON IPCC please see my Technical Note 2019-10: they've done it again, no geologists among 784 authors of their upcoming (due 2022) Sixth Assessment Report … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331974185
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-9. One slide only. For detailed evidence of currently accelerating global sea-level rise, from various locations around the world, see my related Technical Notes 2019-3 to 8 (scroll down here on ResearchGate). Full manuscript in preparation. To arrange a technical presentation at your premises, please email rogerhiggs@geoclastica.com
GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-8. Two slides only. Please scroll down or click 'Download'. Oddly there are still scientists who deny that sea-level is rising and/or that the rate of rise is accelerating, e.g. Mörner (see my related & equally brief Technical Notes 2019-3 to 2019-7). As explained in several other 2018 & 2019 technical notes, the sea-level rise in progress is likely to reach about 3 metres (sic) before 2100, and is driven by the sun, not CO2.
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ABSTRACT ONLY (scroll down or click 'Download'). Submitted 27th Feb 2019 for PALSEA (PALeo Constraints on SEA Level Rise) annual meeting, 21-23 July 2019, Dublin, Ireland. REJECTED 14th March. Here's my reply to the rejection letter from a member of the 'PALSEA leadership' (PALSEA is a working group within PAGES and INQUA): "Hi Natasha. Thank you for your email below. I'm disappointed to have this abstract rejected … You mention …>>>We received a large number of very high quality abstracts which the PALSEA leadership has reviewed for fit with the meeting, in particular identifying those which offer methodological developments to improve our understanding of ice sheet and sea level change<<< Surely a very large overlooked archive of beautifully documented, exquisitely dated sea-level information from British archaeological methods, gathered during my three-year ongoing literature synthesis, does exactly that? This archive gives wonderful and unequivocal support to traditional geological methods that have long indicated oscillatory Holocene eustatic sea-level behaviour (e.g. Fairbridge 1961 and dozens of later authors), with multiple Holocene 1-4m highstands worldwide. The combined archaeology/geology is, of course, fatal for the IPCC's contention that sea-level has not varied more than 25cm (sic) since at least 2,000 BP, on which they base their claim that the 30cm rise measured (tide gauges) since AD1800 is unprecedented ("medium confidence" only!) and therefore must be man's fault (CO2 emissions). I believe that PALSEA has missed a great opportunity here, given its own recognition (2019 conference flyer) that … "Sea-level rise due to polar ice sheet decay in a warming world is one of the most important, and most uncertain aspects associated with climate change." … Kind regards, Roger." NOTABLY, one of the four-person Organising Committee of the conference is PALSEA co-leader and Boston College (USA) assistant professor Dr Jeremy Shakun (2010 PhD thesis 'Analyzing large climate data sets …'), enthusiastic believer in man-made global warming and co-author of the influential/controversial 2013 article 'A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years' (Marcott et al., 'Science' journal). Shakun's Boston College webpage entitled Global Warming says: "it is ‘extremely likely’ that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have caused most of the global warming since 1950". Shakun misleadingly states: "the sun’s output has been essentially flat over the 40-year satellite record (no change)" and therefore cannot explain "recent warming", when in fact solar magnetic flux, controlling Earth's cloudiness (Svensmark), thus affecting temperature, greatly increased by a factor of 1.4 from 1964 to 1995, and by 2.3 from 1901 to 1995 (Lockwood et al. 1999), in the first solar Grand Maximum since 500AD or even earlier (Usoskin et al. 2014). Shakun continues: "CO2’s warming tendency is long-established physics that was first discovered in 1859" (citing a 2011 webpage by the notoriously inaccurate BBC about the celebrated 19th century experiments by John Tyndall said to demonstrate the so-called greenhouse effect). Again misleadingly, Shakun states: "CO2 has more than overpowered the recent deep solar minimum". Here's the PALSEA conference webpage … https://palseagroup.weebly.com/2019-meeting.html
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-7. This accompanies my Technical Notes 2019-4, 5 & 6 (all here on ResearchGate), each just a single page of simple sea-level charts. Collectively these Technical Notes show identical sea-level behaviour (i.e. accelerating rise) at widely spaced localities around the globe (New York City; atolls of the Maldives, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, all with negligible subsidence [<0.1mm/y] except NYC [c.1.5mm/y], i.e. the rise is global, not just local). Marshall Islands sea level was recently addressed by two authors (published jointly in the past): 1) geologist Mörner 2013 https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/31/the-marshall-islands-and-their-sea-level-changes/ and 2) mechanical engineer Parker 2013 in 'Environmental Science An Indian Journal', online, vol. 8, issue 11, p. 425-428. Both implied Marshall Islanders have little to fear from sea-level rise which, they claim, is not accelerating. I strongly disagree. See my 1-page Technical Note below. I challenge readers to look at the sea-level graphs presented here (1. global tide gauges, 2. global satellite-radar, 3 & 4. Marshall Islands tide gauges at two separate atolls), and in Notes 2019-4 to 6, and tell me that sea-level-rise is not accelerating. In a string of papers assuring atoll-dwellers around the globe that rising sea level is no threat (see all four Notes), Dr Mörner insists his "observational facts" outweigh these sea-level charts (in fact he accuses NOAA of "manipulating" the satellite chart). However, in reality his "observational facts" are merely his own INTERPRETATIONS (a far cry from "facts") of geological (sedimentological) and geomorphological shore-related features (perched terraces, notches, etc.), imprecisely dated (radiocarbon accuracy +/- 50 years at best; one or two better dates from archaeology), often badly eroded, and of inexactly known elevation relative to the formative high- or low- or mean-tide level or storm-wave reach. So Mörner is wrong: sea-level rise is accelerating. How high will the sea continue to rise? Geologists and archaeologists have proven that metre-scale oscillations occurred: (A) in the last interglacial period (MIS5e, spanning c. 125,000 to 100,000 years ago), occasionally reaching more than 10m above present-day level, and at times 4-7m in the current Holocene interglacial (the last c.10,000 years), drowning the world's atolls; and (B) sea-level rises were RAPID, including a c.3-metre rise in less than 100 years in both interglacials. What caused these rises (and falls)? This was LONG before man's industrial CO2 emissions (began c.1850). Instead we can 'blame' the sun. Copious geological and archaeological evidence proves a c.350-450AD (early Dark Ages) rapid (30-100 years?) sea-level rise of c.3m, reaching c.1.5m above today's sea level, following a Roman-age solar 'Grand Maximum', which I propose caused Antarctica's ice-sheet rim to collapse (thus raising world sea level) by impingement of 'overwarmed' ocean water, its arrival delayed a few decades by ocean 'conveyor-belt' circulation. The sun's ONLY later comparable Grand Maximum just ended (1937-2003). Accordingly, Antarctica's ice edge is about to fall apart again: indeed ice shelves are melting, grounding lines retreating, and glaciers accelerating. Another c.3-metre sea-level rise is predictable, imminent and unstoppable. In fact it is arguably already beginning - see steepening of NASA sea-level charts (Graphs 1A, B in my Technical Note below). AS BEFORE (DARK AGES), THE COMING RISE IS SOLAR-DRIVEN, NOTHING TO DO WITH CO2 (I agree with Dr Mörner on CO2's innocence). I further predict: (1) evacuation of almost all atoll inhabitants globally will need to start no later than 2040, and possibly 2030; and (2) in the Marshall Islands, the US military's Kwajalein missile test range and Enewetak nuclear dump (1940s-50s bomb tests) WILL drown in the next 50-80 years. I visited Majuro Atoll in the Marshall Islands in December 2018. For a private slideshow of all of the above, and of my Majuro observations, please email me. I am now preparing a full manuscript; potential publishers are invited to get in touch. FOR UPDATES ON THE IMMINENT ~3-METRE SEA-LEVEL RISE, PLEASE SEE MY TECHNICAL NOTES 2019-19, 2020-5 & 2020-6.
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-6. This accompanies my Technical Notes 2019-4, 5 & 7 (all here on ResearchGate), each just a single page of simple sea-level charts. Collectively these Technical Notes show identical sea-level behaviour (accelerating rise) at widely spaced localities around the globe (New York City, Maldives atolls, Kiribati atolls, Marshall Islands atolls, all with negligible subsidence [<0.1mm/y] except NYC [c.1.5mm/y], i.e. the rise is global, not just local). CONTACT ME for half-day presentation of the global evidence for a rapid (30-100 years?) sea-level rise of about 3 metres c.350-450AD (early Dark Ages), after a Roman-age 'Grand Maximum' of the sun caused collapse of Antarctica's ice-sheet rim by impingement of extra-warm ocean water, delayed a few decades by ocean 'conveyor-belt' circulation. The sun's ONLY later comparable Grand Maximum just ended (1937-2003) and, accordingly, Antarctica's ice edge is about to fall apart again (ice shelves are melting, grounding lines retreating, and glaciers accelerating). The clock is ticking. Another ~3-metre sea-level rise is predictable, imminent and unstoppable. In fact it is arguably already beginning - see steepening of NASA sea-level chart … https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ Once again this is solar-driven, nothing to do with CO2. FOR UPDATES ON THE IMMINENT ~3-METRE SEA-LEVEL RISE, PLEASE SEE MY TECHNICAL NOTES 2019-19, 2020-5 & 2020-6.
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-5. This accompanies my Technical Notes 2019-4, 6 & 7 (all here on ResearchGate), each just a single page of simple sea-level charts. Collectively these Technical Notes show identical sea-level behaviour (accelerating rise) at widely spaced localities around the globe (New York City, Maldives atolls, Kiribati atolls, Marshall Islands atolls, all with negligible subsidence [<0.1mm/y] except NYC [c.1.5mm/y], i.e. the rise is global, not just local). CONTACT ME for half-day presentation of the global evidence for a rapid (30-100 years?) sea-level rise of about 3 metres c.350-450AD (early Dark Ages), after a Roman-age 'Grand Maximum' of the sun caused collapse of Antarctica's ice-sheet rim by impingement of extra-warm ocean water, delayed a few decades by ocean 'conveyor-belt' circulation. The sun's ONLY later comparable Grand Maximum just ended (1937-2004) and, accordingly, Antarctica's edge is NOW falling apart again. The clock is ticking. Another c.3-metre sea-level rise is predictable, imminent and unstoppable. In fact it is arguably already beginning - see steepening of NASA sea-level chart … https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ Once again this is solar-driven, nothing to do with CO2. FOR UPDATES ON THE IMMINENT ~3-METRE SEA-LEVEL RISE, PLEASE SEE MY TECHNICAL NOTES 2019-19, 2020-5 & 2020-6.
Roger Higgs
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-4. This accompanies my Technical Notes 2019-5, 6 & 7 (all here on ResearchGate), each just a single page of simple sea-level charts. Collectively these Technical Notes show identical sea-level behaviour (accelerating rise) at widely spaced localities around the globe (New York City, Maldives atolls, Kiribati atolls, Marshall Islands atolls, all with negligible subsidence [<0.1mm/y] except NYC [c.1.5mm/y], i.e. the rise is global, not just local). CONTACT ME for half-day presentation of the global evidence for a rapid (30-100 years?) sea-level rise of about 3 metres c.350-450AD (early Dark Ages), after a Roman-age 'Grand Maximum' of the sun caused collapse of Antarctica's ice-sheet rim by impingement of extra-warm ocean water, delayed a few decades by ocean 'conveyor-belt' circulation. The sun's ONLY later comparable Grand Maximum just ended (1937-2003) and, accordingly, Antarctic's edge is NOW falling apart again. The clock is ticking. Another c.3-metre sea-level rise is predictable, imminent and unstoppable. In fact it is arguably already beginning - see steepening of NASA sea-level chart … https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ YET AGAIN, THIS IS SOLAR-DRIVEN, NOTHING TO DO WITH CO2.
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-3. One single slide - please scroll down or click 'Download'. Like all of my 2016-19 notes here on ResearchGate, this one is based on my three years (continuing) of self-funded (thus impartial) nearly-full-time literature research on ALL scientific disciplines relevant to climate- and sea-level change (i.e. geology, geophysics, archaeology, astrophysics, meteorology, oceanography, physics, chemistry, etc, etc.), backed by 30 years as an independent (thus unbiased) international consulting geologist, preceded by a doctorate in geology (Oxford 1982-86). A full manuscript is in preparation. See also my related Technical Notes 2019-4 to 7, each just a single page, and each dealing with clearly accelerating sea-level rise in four different place (New York City, Maldives atolls, Kiribati atolls, Marshall Islands atolls).
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-2 (update of Technical Note 2018-1). Please scroll down or click 'Download' to see this item, a single self-explanatory slide that reinforces my contention that global warming and sea-level rise are driven by the sun, not CO2 (see my other brief contributions here on ResearchGate). The illustrated correlations show that changes in Earth's temperature and sea level lag behind changes in solar-magnetic output. The lag is 25 and 45 years, respectively, caused by our giant ocean's thermal inertia and 'conveyor-belt' circulation ('ocean memory'), both ignored in IPCC's climate models. Due to these differing lags, Earth is now experiencing an unexpected combination of FALLING temperature (solar-magnetic output is falling from its 1991 extreme peak (28 years ago; highest value for >1,000 years, see my Technical Note 2018-4, slide 1) and RISING sea level (i.e. 1991 magnetic peak was less than 45 years ago) - see the lower two charts in the diagram. For an expanded view of the solar-magnetic/Earth-temperature correlation for the last 23 years (1995-2018), see my Technical Note 2018-6. We urgently need to get the truth into schools and universities, to correct the 30 years of misinformation (demonisation of CO2) force-fed to our youngsters.
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-1 (just a single figure; scroll down and/or click 'Download'). Australian blogs 'Eyes on Browne' and 'JoNova' in 2014 and 2015 incorrectly and irresponsibly dismissed the dire sea-level predicament of Kiribati, a Pacific Ocean atoll typical of atolls around the world (e.g. Marshall Islands, Maldives), all of which have average elevations less than 3m above sea level and few of which exceed 5m anywhere on the atoll. JoNova simultaneously made offensive remarks about then-president of Kiribati Anote Tong's motives in imploring global governments for assistance. This contribution presents the science and fully vindicates the former president. Sea level in Kiribati and worldwide is rising >3mm/year, essentially the same rate as average WORLD sea level charted by NASA, measured by satellites (note atoll subsidence is negligible, <0.1mm/year), and >3 times the "insignificant" and "unscary" 1mm/sec claimed at Kiribati by the bloggers (I wonder if they are even qualified to comment on sea-level science); moreover it's accelerating, as is global sea level. Time is running out for Kiribati and the world’s other atolls. I predict the rate of rise will jump 10-20x when Antarctic glacier collapse starts, possibly as soon as 2030, for a total rise of about 3 METRES in 50-80 years (as occurred in the Dark Ages), driven by the sun not CO2 ……… see my previous contribution here on ResearchGate 'Dark Ages 3-metre sea-level rise (by Antarctic glacier collapse?) followed rare solar Grand Maximum (GM), so the only later GM (1937-2003) portends ANOTHER ~3M SEA-LEVEL RISE BY 2100: CO2 blameless'.
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This project aims to establish what, exactly, drives climate- and sea-level change. WHO AM I? A published independent geologist (sedimentologist) with a geology doctorate (University of Oxford 1982-86) and 35 years' worldwide geological consulting experience, I'm now in my 7th year of near-full-time literature research on ALL of the diverse scientific aspects of climate change, including geology, geophysics, archaeology, oceanography, meteorology, glaciology, astrophysics, palaeoclimatology, and 'climate science'. This ResearchGate project comprises about 40 brief and readily understood contributions, mostly 'Technical Notes' (usually 1 to 5 pdf slides, convenient for laptop viewing and projecting) and 1-page conference abstracts, spanning 2016-2022 (click on 'Project Log' above). I generally add a new contribution every few weeks. The reader will notice how my interpretations have evolved over time, as is usual in science. In particular, my 2022 contribution, 'Holocene solar control of global temperature disrupted since 1940s by man-made warming', and subsequent ones, precisely determine the onset and amount of man's contribution to global warming, and demonstrate that the main cause is black carbon (soot) released by combustion of coal and diesel fuel. CO2 is evidently innocent. Dr Roger Higgs, 25th August 2022
 
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TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-10. Abstract submitted January 2019 for 'EUROPEAN GEOSCIENCES UNION' General Assembly, Vienna, April 2019. REJECTED 1ST FEB 2019. The 150-word downloadable abstract below summarises my conclusions and predictions resulting from three years (continuing) self-funded (thus impartial) intensive literature research on ALL the scientific disciplines relevant to climate- and sea-level change (i.e. geology, geophysics, archaeology, astrophysics, meteorology, oceanography, physics, chemistry, etc, etc.), backed by a doctorate in geology (Oxford 1982-86) followed by 30 years as a independent (thus unbiased) published international consulting geologist. NOTE ADDED 1ST FEB 2019: whoever rejected this abstract is brave, choosing not to alert the world to the sea-level calamity that will almost certainly befall us shortly. I hope for their sake that my hypothesis turns out to be wrong, as the consequences for humanity if I'm right are staggering. We'll know soon … e.g. see this later contribution … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330634781 Or perhaps my mistake was to add "CO2 blameless" to the title. I note that EGU is far from impartial in the debate (the science is FAR from settled) over whether man's CO2 emissions can possibly affect climate, a belief (sic) rejected by many of the world's leading scientists. A 9th October 2018 press release titled "EGU’s reaction to IPCC report on Global Warming of 1.5°C" says: "European Geosciences Union (EGU) President Jonathan Bamber said: “EGU concurs with, and supports, the findings of the SR15 that action to curb the most dangerous consequences of human-induced climate change is urgent, of the utmost importance and the window of opportunity extremely limited.” Olaf Eisen, President of the EGU Cryospheric Sciences Division, said: “With IPCC AR4 [Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change] 2007 it was evident that humanity still had the opportunity to avoid, or turn back in the mid-term, climate change. It is now clear that we lost more than 10 years already and the question is about how disastrous will it be in the end.” Annica Ekman, President of the EGU Atmospheric Sciences Division, noted: “If anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue at the same rate, we will most likely reach a warming of 1.5°C as early as 2030 and no later than 2052. Global emissions of greenhouse gases have to approach zero already in 2050 to avoid the most harmful consequences.” Didier Roche, President of the EGU Climate: Past, Present and Future Division, highlighted the differences between the two global warming limits included in the Paris climate agreement as analysed in detail in SR15: “You might think that 1.5°C versus 2°C is a small difference. But for nearly every component of the climate system, the SR15 report shows that limiting the warming to 1.5°C will make our life and our children’s life easier when it comes to mitigation and adaptation. A matter where clear and ambitious decisions are needed.” " Clearly these scientists fervently believe the new religion (the never-proven 'CO2 greenhouse effect') that CO2 is humanity's enemy and that the sun's fluctuations, proven by astrophysicists and known by geologists to have affected Earth's climate and sea level in the geological past, are irrelevant to Earth's unexceptional (on a time-scale of millennia) warming since 1900, despite the fact that a solar Grand Maximum (1937-2003) has just ended, the only one since the Dark Ages. Yet the professions of these four influential people are: geographer; glaciologist; meteorologist; and a palaeoclimate modeller. None of them is a geologist or astrophysicist, professions that are likewise drastically underrepresented among IPCC report authors (e.g. IPCC 2013/14 Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group I Contribution 'Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis', 255 authors, zero geologists.
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-6. SUPERSEDED BY TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-17 (please scroll up). Original introduction …This half-page contribution (scroll down or click 'Download') strongly suggests that the 'man-made-global-warming' idea (belief) is a fallacy whose time is nearly over. My conclusions and predictions are based on three years (continuing) of self-funded (i.e. impartial) literature research on ALL the scientific disciplines relevant to climate- and sea-level change (i.e. geology, geophysics, archaeology, astrophysics, meteorology, oceanography, physics, chemistry, etc, etc.), backed by 30 years as an independent (thus unbiased) international geology consultant, preceded by a doctorate in geology (Oxford 1982-86). This contribution shows that since at least 1995 Earth's average temperature apparently correlates with the sun's magnetic output, but lags behind it by about 25 years [note added 4th Oct 2019: new correlations indicate 85 years] due to our enormous ocean's thermal inertia (ignored in IPCC's models). For further evidence, even more convincing, SEE MY TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-4 (June 2018), especially: SLIDE 2 showing that the same correlation between solar output and average world temperature extends even further back, to the 1880 start of reliable temperature measurements (by thermometer); and SLIDE 1 showing the same correlation applies going back at least 2,000 years, based on temperature PROXIES, mainly tree rings (the plotted sample interval of 30 years cannot resolve 25-year time lag). See also Technical Note 2019-2, released a few days ago, showing the correlation between (1) solar-magnetic output, (2) Earth's temperature (lag 25 years), and also (3) SEA LEVEL (lag 45 years) for 1900 to 2018. For my prediction of an imminent unstoppable sea-level rise of about 3m, starting any day now and ending by 2100, driven by (but again lagging behind) the recently ended solar Grand Maximum (1937-2003) and nothing to do with CO2, see several other very brief 2018-19 contributions here on my ResearchGate site, most recently … https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330141953
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-9. SCROLL DOWN OR DOWNLOAD. 400-WORD ABSTRACT ONLY. FULL MANUSCRIPT IN PREPARATION. Here's another contribution from my 3-years, to date, of unpaid (impartial) full-time literature review on all of the diverse disciplines (geology, archaeology, climatology, oceanography, astrophysics, meteorology, etc) relevant to climate change and sea-level rise. As shown here, our Holocene climate- and sea-level oscillations are primarily (if not entirely) driven by the sun and volcanic eruptions, not CO2. The solar-driven interplanetary magnetic field, regulating Earth's arriving cosmic rays governing cloudiness and therefore temperature (Svensmark model) and thus sea level (melting glaciers), more than doubled from 1901 (Lockwood et al. 1999, "A doubling …", Nature v.399, p. 437-439) to the 1996 peak of the Modern Solar Grand Maximum (1963-2003; unmatched since the 300AD grand maximum responsible for the Roman-Saxon c.3m sea-level rise). Besides all this, does it really sound intuitively reasonable to you that the fundamental driver of Earth's climate is a trace gas making up just 1/2500th (one two-thousand-five-hundredth; 400ppm) of our atmosphere? This idea, never proven, is still no more than a belief, albeit a wildly popular one, even among many scientists, apart from geologists.
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GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-8. 400-word abstract, submitted 31-10-18 to the European Climate Change Adaptation (ECCA) conference in Lisbon, May 2019. ABSTRACT REJECTED 21-1-19. For some of the copious evidence on which my predictions are based, see my Sept 2018 "Imminent sea-level disaster …" two-page abstract here on ResearchGate (Technical Note 2018-7). A full paper is in preparation. Later this month (November 2018) I shall be visiting two atolls, to experience these unique and marvellous places before the coming solar-driven sea-level rise renders them uninhabitable (as predicted by the IPCC, though they blame man's CO2 emissions rather than the sun). Google "Pine Island Glacier" for the latest startling news from Antarctica (I've been there too). TO ARRANGE A PRIVATE 2-HOUR SLIDESHOW AT YOUR PREMISES, EMAIL rogerhiggs@geoclastica.com
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TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-7. Two-page abstract only, for a 2019 conference. To view, please scroll down or click "Download'. FULL MANUSCRIPT IN PREPARATION. To arrange a private lecture at your premises, email rogerhiggs@hotmail.com
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TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-5. This brief (3 slides) and simple presentation proves that, for the last 2,000 years, solar magnetic output is the main control on Earth's surface temperature, with a time lag of ~25 years, i.e. any change in temperature is felt 25 years after the corresponding solar change (Slides 2, 3). The correlation, both long-term (Slide 2, 0-2000AD) and short (Slide 3, 1880-2018), is visually strong despite the many uncertainties like imprecise dating (e.g. dendrochronology, radiocarbon], proxy values, averaging, and occasional overprint by 'volcanic winters' (e.g. ~1600AD on Slide 2). The 25-year time lag is attributable to ocean thermal inertia (scroll down to my Technical Note 2018-4 here on ResearchGate). This obvious Sun-Earth correlation (Slides 2, 3) confirms that CO2 has little or no effect on global temperatures (Technical Notes 2018-1, 3 & 4). That's good news. Nevertheless there is still VERY bad news: abundant and diverse geological (worldwide) and archaeological (European) evidence indicates that a Dark Ages temperature peak ~580AD (unmatched until, arguably, the last 20 years; Slide 2), clearly correlating with a c.520AD probable solar Grand Maximum (unmatched until the even-stronger Modern Grand Maximum, 1957-2003; Slide 2), caused a rapid (years or decades) ~5m sea-level rise in the 5th or 6th Century (google Godwin's Romano-British Transgression) due to over-warmed ocean water inducing runaway Antarctic glacier-snout collapse, a process as yet unwitnessed by any human (scroll down to my April 2018 contribution "Catastrophic ..."). Thus I predict another ~5m rapid (years-decades) solar-driven sea-level rise, beginning any time between today(!) and 2045, caused by the Modern Grand Maximum, but lagging behind it by a few decades due to combined ocean thermal inertia and 'conveyor-belt' ocean circulation. Yet $$trillions are being spent trying to minimally reduce blameless(?) CO2. If I am correct, these $$trillions will soon be sorely needed for evacuating low-lying populations (much of Miami, Mumbai, Shanghai, Bangladesh, Holland, etc; and all atolls worldwide) and for decommissioning/relocating coastal infrastructure (homes, businesses, factories, seaports, airports, nuclear power plants, etc). IF I'M RIGHT (LET'S HOPE NOT), GLOBAL FINANCIAL COLLAPSE AND ANARCHY ARE DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES, CERTAINLY BY 2050 AND POSSIBLY BEFORE 2030. To arrange a full presentation at your premises, please email rogerhiggs@hotmail.com
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TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-4. SUPERSEDED BY TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-17 (please scroll up). Original introduction … These five slides prove four vital points. (A) Global warming and cooling are driven by the sun (Slide 2), specifically by the solar-sourced Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Slides 3, 4), which regulates incoming cosmic rays (Slide 4), in turn governing cloudiness and thus global temperature (the breathtakingly elegant Svensmark Theory). (B) Global temperature oscillations are shown here to lag 25 years behind the causative solar-magnetic fluctuations (Slides 3, 4). This 25-year lag is due to ocean thermal inertia (google it; NB remarkable agreement with the 15-20-year lag estimated theoretically by Wetherald et al. 2001 and Abdussamatov et al. 2012), discounted by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (C) The idea that CO2, currently constituting just 1/2,500th (400ppm) of the atmosphere (a geo-historically very low value, near plant-starvation level), is causing, through mankind’s CO2 additions, 'anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW), is highly doubtful. (D) Global warming is arguably over. It peaked in 2016, 25 years (see lag time, above) after the 1991 solar magnetic peak (Slides 3, 4). Our Earth is now cooling (Slide 4, bottom graph; slide 5, top graph). NOTE ADDED OCTOBER 2019: My latest correlations indicate that the 25-year lag by ocean thermal inertia (see above) is in fact 85 years (Technical Note 2019-17). Thus global warming, by the sun, has only temporarily 'ended'. Longer-term warming (in the usual solar-type 'sawtooth' style, i.e. interrupted by pauses and coolings of 3-10 years; contrast CO2's continual rise) will therefore continue until about 2075.
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TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-3. Look at the three charts in the accompanying figure. Among the three variables, (1) solar output, (2) global temperature and (3) CO2, what controls what? All three charts show an overall rise since at least 1850. At shorter time scales (decades), the 'saw-tooth' ups and downs of the sun's output (Chart 1) closely match those shown by global temperature (Chart 2) and indicate a 20-year temperature lag. THUS THE SUN DRIVES GLOBAL TEMPERATURE; the lag is attributable to global oceanic thermal inertia (scroll down to my previous item here on ResearchGate, entitled "Catastrophic ..."). However, the IPCC's global-warming models discount both the inconstant sun and the ceaseless overturning of Earth's giant ocean, instead blaming man's industrial-CO2 emissions. Next, look at Chart 3, CO2: its ups and downs are far less pronounced than the others, and there's no obvious lag. The well-known "Global Warming Hiatus" (Wiki), 1998-2013, coincides with a solar downturn (see the figure) but not with any CO2 downturn (google-images CO2 Hawaii). Moreover in the last interglacial (due, like the ongoing Holocene one, to Earth's orbital characteristics maximising received solar irradiance), global temperature was higher than now, yet CO2 peaked lower (about 300ppm), the reverse of what IPCC would predict.
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TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-1 (NB Superseded by Technical Notes 2018-4 and 2019-2, with revised time-lags). This 1-page note outlines a very simple hypothesis explaining Earth's temperature- and sea-level variations in terms of the sun's well-known fluctuations (amplified by Svensmark's cloud/cosmic ray link), delayed by ocean circulation. The accompanying diagram (Fig. 1) shows published graphs of (1) solar activity from both ice-core Be10 (blue) and group sunspot counts (Hoyt; red), (2) measured global sea level and (3) measured global temperature. By cross-matching the three graphs, it is evident that fluctuations in sea level (by polar ice melting) and global temperature since ~1800AD correlate well with solar-activity variations, but lag behind the sun by 40 and 80 years respectively. I attribute these previously unknown lags to 'conveyor-belt' ocean circulation ('ocean memory'; see my two most recent posts here on ResearchGate, both dated March 2018). This correlation supports published claims by many scientists that the sun, not mankind's CO2 emissions, is the driver of ongoing global warming and sea-level rise (see my other 2017-18 ResearchGate contributions, likewise brief and simple). In other words, CO2 is IRRELEVANT TO GLOBAL WARMING. In fact CO2 is a PRODUCT (exsolved from the warming ocean), not cause, of global warming, as already shown by polar ice cores, in which CO2 lags ~200 years behind proxy temperature. Mankind's industrial CO2 emissions, beginning ~1850 and rising ever since, do indeed parallel rising global temperature, but only by pure chance (probability 1 in 2, i.e. the opposite was equally likely). We now face an imminent (before 2035) catastrophic sea-level rise, a repeat of the overlooked 5th Century 'Dark Ages Rise' of about 5 metres, likewise nothing to do with CO2 (1,400 years too early). A full manuscript is in preparation. Please email me to arrange a PPT lecture. rogerhiggs@hotmail.com
Roger Higgs
added 2 research items
Latest update 11th October 2018. The accompanying brief article (10 pages, 2 figures; full manuscript in preparation) is based on my near-full-time, unpaid (thus unbiased) literature research since November 2015 on the diverse disciplines encompassed by climate change and sea-level rise, e.g. geophysics, glaciology, climatology, oceanography, astrophysics, and especially history and geology. Earlier versions of my startling conclusions and predictions have been presented at three major geological conferences so far: IGC Cape Town 2016; GSA Denver 2016; EGU Vienna 2017 (abstracts available here on ResearchGate); also in several informal lectures to UK societies (Café Scientifique; Old Cornwall Society; University of the Third Age). Media organisations invited (by me) to attend my presentations but not responding: BBC, Daily Mail, Denver Post, New York Times, Western Morning News. Others alerted to this article but not answering: Los Angeles Times, UK Government (Attorney General's Office), Washington Post. If I'm right, TIME IS VERY SHORT: unimaginable social disruption (abandonment of coastal regions and islands lower than 5m; massive human migrations; likely anarchy and global banking collapse) could begin within 10 years. Hopefully I'll be proven wrong (such is science); but after 30 years as a consultant making disinterested geological predictions for oil companies, I've never felt more confident in any of my forecasts. Please forward this link to colleagues, friends and families. To book a 2-hour slideshow, email rogerhiggs@hotmail.com
Roger Higgs
added a research item
This Technical Note 2017-4 is a single self-explanatory downloadable figure (below). This figure accompanies my abstract submitted for the Geological Society of America's Annual Meeting in Seattle, October 2017 (see next entry in my ResearchGate 'Contributions' list).
Roger Higgs
added a research item
Abstract submitted 1 Aug 2017, for presentation at the GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA (GSA) Annual Meeting, Seattle, Oct 2017. For two key diagrams from this presentation, please see Technical Notes 2017-3 and 4 (the previous two items in my ResearchGate list). Readers will quickly see that (1) man-made climate change is a fallacy and (2) metre-scale sea level rise within the next 30 years is unstoppable. ABSTRACT REJECTED BY GSA 23rd Aug 2017: a brave decision by the Technical Program Manager, given the phenomenally high stakes, i.e. delay in moving the populations and infrastructure (e.g. ports, airports) of low-lying cities and nations (Bangladesh, Holland, Miami, Shanghai, etc.), and sea-level nuclear power stations. What if I’m right? We’ll know within 3 years, by which time I predict the current 3mm/yr rise will have doubled at the very least. To arrange a private presentation, anywhere in the world, please email me. rogerhiggs@hotmail.com
Roger Higgs
added a research item
This Technical Note 2017-3, an update of Technical Note 2017-1, is the same self-explanatory downloadable figure (below), with improved clarity, and additionally showing the generally accepted limits of the 'Medieval Warm Period' (which in fact began centuries earlier) and 'Little Ice Age'. It is obvious from this figure that global average temperature fluctuations since at least 0 AD are controlled by the sun's variable output, with a decades-long temperature lag due to ocean 'conveyor-belt' circulation (neglected by IPCC). Mankind and CO2 are NOT responsible for marked post-1900 warming, which is clearly solar-driven (see red line in the Usoskin et al. [2014] solar activity curve at the bottom of the diagram), again with a clear lag of nearly a century due to 'ocean memory'. This figure accompanies my abstract submitted for the Geological Society of America Annual Meeting in Seattle, October 2017 (see the entry after next in my ResearchGate 'Contributions' list). NOTE ADDED 23 AUG 2020: for an update of this contribution, see my Technical Note 2020-9, uploaded today.
Roger Higgs
added a research item
GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2017-2. This single downloadable slide is self-explanatory. 'A picture is worth 1,000 words.' Please see also, here on ResearchGate, my Technical Notes 2017-1, 3 and 4; and the abstracts of my presentations on this topic at three major geological conferences (Cape Town August 2016; Denver September 2016; Vienna April 2017). This work is based on my two-year (to June 2017), full-time, unfunded (i.e. impartial) review of ALL the relevant literature (geological, palaeoclimatological, archaeological, oceanographic, astronomical, etc.), preceded by 30 years as an INDEPENDENT geologist consulting for oil companies and national geological institutes since my doctorate (DPhil Oxford, sedimentary geology, 1982-86). ADDENDUM, Aug 8 2017: I've just found another depiction of the CO2-temperature anti-correlation, by Javier, dated 30-4-17, here ... https://judithcurry.com/2017/04/30/nature-unbound-iii-holocene-climate-variability-part-a/ (see Figure 38 and the paragraph preceding it).
Roger Higgs
added a research item
This Technical Note 2017-1 is a single self-explanatory downloadable figure (below). The infamous "hockey stick" turns out to be correct. Change your life by looking at the diagram; it also proves that present warmth is driven by the sun (of course), and has nothing to do with mankind or CO2. If everybody interested in the debate about so-called Anthropogenic Global Warming would just spend 3 minutes looking at this figure, the debate would be over. Please see also, here on ResearchGate, my Technical Note 2017-2 and the abstracts of my presentations on this topic at three major geological conferences (Cape Town August 2016; Denver September 2016; Vienna April 2017). This work is based on my two-year (so far), full-time, unfunded (i.e. impartial) review of the geological, archaeological, oceanographic and astronomical literature, preceded by 30 years as an INDEPENDENT geologist consulting for oil companies and national geological institutes since my doctorate (DPhil Oxford, sedimentary geology, 1982-86). NOTE ADDED 23 AUG 2020: for an update of this contribution, see my Technical Note 2020-9, uploaded today.
Roger Higgs
added a research item
Abstract of my talk given at Geological Society of America (GSA) annual conference, Denver, September 2016.