added 4 research items
Staatsverschuldung und Inflation
Theoretical and Empirical Research on the Interdependence between Public Debt and Inflation
In the following study the relation between the public debt and the inflation will be analysed. The transmission from the public debt to the inflation through the money supply and long term interest rate will be shown. Based on these theoretical thoughts the variables public debt, consumer price index, money supply m3 and the long term interest rate will be analysed within a vector error correction model. In the empirical part of this paper we will evaluate the timeperiod from the first quarter in 1991 until the fourth quarter in 2010 for Germany. In a vector error correction model every variable can be taken as endogenous. The variables in the model will be tested for cointegrated relationships and estimated with the Johansen-Approach.
In the paper, the interaction between public debt and inflation including mutual impulse response will be analysed. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again the focus on the consequences of public debt in combination with an expansive monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to inflation if the money supply is expansive. The high level of national debt, not only in the Euro-crisis countries, and the strong increase in total assets of the European Central Bank, as a result of the unconventional monetary policy, caused fears on inflating national debt. The transmission from public debt to inflation through money supply and long-term interest rate will be shown in the paper. Based on these theoretical thoughts, the variables public debt, consumer price index, money supply m3 and long-term interest rate will be analysed within a vector error correction model estimated by Johansen approach. In the empirical part of the article, quarterly data for Germany from 1991 by 2010 are to be examined.