Project

Risk benefit analyses of COVID vaccination stratified by age

Goal: For a medical treatment to be ethical, the benefits of the treatment need to outweigh the risks of no treatment, or the risks of an alternative treatment. A treatment's risk-benefit ratio can vary widely depending on the population or individual and the disease in question. This is especially true for COVID-19, where the risks of hospitalization and death resulting from an infection decrease substantially as a function of age. For example, a 25 year old has at least 100 fold less risk of death if infected (0.01%) than a 75 year old (>1%).

Risk-benefit ratio analyses of vaccination against COVID-19 require accurate and reliable estimates of their risks, stratified by age. However, existing surveillance studies and safety assessments are either underpowered or are not designed to reliably estimate the rate of severe adverse and life-threatening events in reaction to the vaccine. Moreover, the underlying data used for these studies are usually not accessible or made available to outside researchers. This makes reanalysis, inspection and replication of their results by others difficult, if not impossible. This limits the transparency, and hence reliability and rigor of these studies, especially since oftentimes the authors of the studies are funded by or receive support from the vaccine companies.

In this project, we use large and publicly available datasets to obtain reliable and valid estimates of the risks (and benefits) of COVID vaccines. We have a preprint manuscript in preparation on vaccination and (non-COVID) mortality risk (see References tab).

We are looking for collaborators or volunteer research assistants who would like to help with various aspects of the project, including publishing the manuscript. If you are you interested, and have great communication, organization, and writing skills, and/or experience with data science, please message me and attach a brief resume or CV and description of what you hope to learn and contribute.

Date: 13 August 2021

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Project log

Spiro Pantazatos
added a research item
Capsule As CDC's ACIP met to discuss the use of booster and new variant doses, we show that key vaccine efficacy and safefy data were again withheld from that could have better guided their discussion. We discuss continuing and unanswered safety concerns, particularly with regard to the gene therapy nature of the Covid-19 vaccines. In the face of public "vaccine fatigue", the lack of a plan that can rapidly respond to new variant surges, is evident. We reintroduce the subject of repurposed rugs and summarize our findings from re-analyses of pivotal studies in this regard. Lastly, we provide data concerning associations of vaccine and booster use with all cause mortality from both European (Euromomo.eu) and US (CDC) sources Contents
Spiro Pantazatos
added a project goal
For a medical treatment to be ethical, the benefits of the treatment need to outweigh the risks of no treatment, or the risks of an alternative treatment. A treatment's risk-benefit ratio can vary widely depending on the population or individual and the disease in question. This is especially true for COVID-19, where the risks of hospitalization and death resulting from an infection decrease substantially as a function of age. For example, a 25 year old has at least 100 fold less risk of death if infected (0.01%) than a 75 year old (>1%).
Risk-benefit ratio analyses of vaccination against COVID-19 require accurate and reliable estimates of their risks, stratified by age. However, existing surveillance studies and safety assessments are either underpowered or are not designed to reliably estimate the rate of severe adverse and life-threatening events in reaction to the vaccine. Moreover, the underlying data used for these studies are usually not accessible or made available to outside researchers. This makes reanalysis, inspection and replication of their results by others difficult, if not impossible. This limits the transparency, and hence reliability and rigor of these studies, especially since oftentimes the authors of the studies are funded by or receive support from the vaccine companies.
In this project, we use large and publicly available datasets to obtain reliable and valid estimates of the risks (and benefits) of COVID vaccines. We have a preprint manuscript in preparation on vaccination and (non-COVID) mortality risk (see References tab).
We are looking for collaborators or volunteer research assistants who would like to help with various aspects of the project, including publishing the manuscript. If you are you interested, and have great communication, organization, and writing skills, and/or experience with data science, please message me and attach a brief resume or CV and description of what you hope to learn and contribute.
 
Spiro Pantazatos
added a research item
Accurate estimates of COVID vaccine-induced severe adverse event and death rates are critical for risk-benefit ratio analyses of vaccination and boosters against SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in different age groups. However, existing surveillance studies are not designed to reliably estimate life-threatening event or vaccine-induced fatality rates (VFR). Here, regional variation in vaccination rates was used to predict all-cause mortality and non-COVID deaths in subsequent time periods using two independent, publicly available datasets from the US and Europe (month-and week-level resolutions, respectively). Vaccination correlated negatively with mortality 6-20 weeks post-injection, while vaccination predicted all-cause mortality 0-5 weeks post-injection in almost all age groups and with an age-related temporal pattern consistent with the US vaccine rollout. Results from fitted regression slopes (p<0.05 FDR corrected) suggest a US national average VFR of 0.04% and higher VFR with age (VFR=0.004% in ages 0-17 increasing to 0.06% in ages >75 years), and 146K to 187K vaccine-associated US deaths between February and August, 2021. Notably, adult vaccination increased ulterior mortality of unvaccinated young (<18, US; <15, Europe). Comparing our estimate with the CDC-reported VFR (0.002%) suggests VAERS deaths are underreported by a factor of 20, consistent with known VAERS under-ascertainment bias. Comparing our age-stratified VFRs with published age-stratified coronavirus infection fatality rates (IFR) suggests the risks of COVID vaccines and boosters outweigh the benefits in children, young adults and older adults with low occupational risk or previous coronavirus exposure. We discuss implications for public health policies related to boosters, school and workplace mandates, and the urgent need to identify, develop and disseminate diagnostics and treatments for life-altering vaccine injuries.