Project

Research Polar Fields

Goal: Polar Field Strength = Solar Flux

Date: 1 January 2015

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Project log

Patrick Geryl
added a research item
We found the theory to calculate sunspots in the period 2013-2018. Major problems remain. However, sometimes it is possible to make a correct prediction. The timing and complexity of AR 2975 validates our model. You can follow everything on: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/forum/29-space-weather/
Patrick Geryl
added 2 research items
In our previous article we found a relationship between the adjusted solar flux and the start of sunspot cycles. We used the 13 month smoothed average for it. Building further on this we found a surprising proof that sunspots and the adjusted solar flux are even more related. If we replace the standard smoothing formula with a 365 days smoothed average, some at first sight unbelievable coincidences turn up in the cycle 24-25 transition. The lows from NOAA SN and 2 high resolution SN data series fall on the same day as the low of the adjusted solar flux, while the ISN is quite close.
Patrick Geryl
added a research item
After analyzing the lowest adjusted 10.7cm solar flux values, we find that the adjusted flux for October 2019 is low enough to give the start of Solar Cycle 25 between August 2019 and January 2020. Further findings point to November-December 2019 as the starting date for Solar Cycle 25, while the 2K high resolution sunspot number points to December 2019.
Patrick Geryl
added a project goal
Polar Field Strength = Solar Flux
 
Patrick Geryl
added an update
We found that the unfiltered magnetic polar field strength is in fact the 10.7 cm radio flux and the same as the sunspot cycle
 
Patrick Geryl
added a research item
It is known that the solar radio flux is strongly correlated to the sunspot cycle and that the flux is nearly the same at every minimum. If 64 sfu is taken as the baseline for all cycles, then we can calculate the proxy sunspot number from the flux, and vice versa. Furthermore, we find that the fitted adjusted flux divided by the fitted sunspot number gives a strong marker for the start of Solar Cycle 25 in October 2019. The high resolution 2K (based on 2048x2048 pixels SDO images) sunspot number currently indicates a start in June 2019.