During this years EGU we presented the critical infrastructure network modelling approach as well as results for a case study in Accra, Ghana in the session " Advancing critical infrastructure modelling in a complex world ".
Flood risk management in Russia To all Russian scientist: I’m working since several years in flood risk management! It is about protecting people against natural disaster! It is about helping people! It is about prevention of destroying villages and cities by floods! My scientific work is in general free of politics and it is good! Unfortunately, this changes after the Russian government, your government, started its so called “special operation”; and it changes after I saw the terrible pictures of BUCHA or MARIUPOL (amongst others)! Please believe me: it is NOT a special operation against military targets, it is an aggressive war against civilians: houses are plundered, WOMEN are RAPED, CHILDREN are KILLED, MEN are EXECUTED by the RUSSIAN army! And yes, some of you may think: just Propaganda! But why a lot of Russians go to jail, because the speak about “WAR”, because they show white signs? Please believe me, I would never use such a strange way to contact you, if I have at least some hope, that the RUSSIAN people (also you) can stop in some way these war crimes! And I want, that you know the truth! To all scientist of countries which are supporting in some way the Russian government (e.g. China, India etc), please keep this also in mind! Thanks a lot! And I hope for peaceful world in near future, because we will have enough to do with climate change, flood risk management, lows flows etc. We will have to work together, not shoot to each other! To all other researchers: maybe you have similar preprints!
In this work we present PROMAIDES (Protection Measures against Inundation Decision support), an open-source, free software package for risk-based evaluation of flood risk mitigation measures. The software package consists of numerous relevant modules for a flood risk analysis in riverine and coastal regions: the HYD-module for a hydrodynamic analysis, the DAM-module for an analysis of consequences (including economical damage, consequences to people and the disruption of critical infrastructure services), the FPL-module for the reliability analysis of dikes and dunes as well as a combining RISK-module and the decision support MADM-module. To support a user-friendly model setup, visualization of input and data results, a connection with the free QGIS-system is established by QGIS-plugins and a PostgreSQL-database as data-management system. A detailed online documentation featuring theory, application and programming is available. A community of users is currently set-up. More information are available here: https://promaides.myjetbrains.com/youtrack/articles/PMID-A-17/Introduction
Rainfall is a complex, spatial and temporally variated process and one of the core inputs for hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling. Most rainfalls are known to be moving storms with varying directions and velocities. Storm movement is known to be an important influence on runoff generation, both affecting peak discharge and the shape of hydrographs. Therefore, exploring the extent rainfall dynamics affect runoff generation and consequently flooded areas, can be an asset in effective flood risk management. In this work, we study how storm movement (e.g. characterized by velocity and direction) can affect surface flow generation, water levels and flooded areas within a catchment. Moreover, the influence of rainfall temporal variability in correlation with storm movement is taken into account. This is achieved by means of numerical-based, spatially explicit surface flow simulations using the tool ProMaIDes (2021), a free software for risk-based evaluation of flood risk mitigation measures. The storm events are generated using a microcanonical random cascade model and further on trajected across the catchment area. The study area is the Kan river catchment located in the province of Tehran (Iran) with a total area of 836 km², which has experienced multiple flooding events in recent years. Due to its semi-arid climate, steep topography with narrow valleys, this area has high potential for flash flood occurrence as a result of high intensity precipitation. The results of this study show a range of possible magnitudes of influence of rainfall movement on the catchment´s runoff response. The resulting flood maps highlight the importance of rainfall velocity and most importantly the direction of the movement in the estimation of flood events as well as their likelihood in catchment area. Moreover, its shown that the magnitude of influence of storm velocity and direction on discharge strongly depends on the location within the river network which it is measured. ProMaIDes (2021): Protection Measures against Inundation Decision support. https://promaides.h2.de
Holistic flood risk management (FRM) aims at minimizing the flood risk (FR) for an entire river basin. To this end, the probability of flooding and its consequences must also be taken into account in the planning of flood risk management measures. If the FR is to be limited by the flooding probability value (e.g., by changing the structural reliability), knowledge of the variability of the limit state is required. As an example, this study quantifies for the first time the variability of the probability of a landside slope failure on homogeneous river levees, using the Monte Carlo simulation. In the slip circle method developed by Krey that is used for this purpose, four geometric and six material input parameters are included as being uncertain, of which four emerge in the result as being relevant influencing variables of the failure probability. These analyses extend our understanding of landward slope failure by the variability of the limit state; the results allow a targeted adjustment of the local failure probability to limit the flood risk. In the future, the methodology presented is to be supplemented by the integration of parameter dependencies and, once in use, expanded to include structured cross-sections or additional failure mechanisms.
Eine kurze Analyse zu den Hochwasserereignissen 2021 in Deutschland; außerdem ein paar Gedanken dazu, wie die Forschung die Praxis unterstützen kann.
Flood risk management and an associated flood risk analysis are well established within the European Union: Flood hazard maps, flood risk maps and flood risk management plans have been required by law since 2007. Nevertheless, from a scientific point of view there is potential for improvement: New holistic flood risk analysis tools, rain generators for generating an extended range of hazards and the failure analysis of critical infrastructure during floods are currently under development. Paper itself is in German!
Das Hochwasserrisikomanagement und die damit verbundene Hochwasserrisikoanalyse ist im europäischen Raum weit fortgeschritten: Hochwassergefahren- und Hochwasserrisikokarten sowie Managementpläne sind seit 2007 gesetzlich vorgeschrieben. Trotzdem gibt es aus Sicht der Wissenschaft Verbesserungspotenzial: neue umfassende Werkzeuge zur Hochwasserrisikoanalyse, Niederschlagsgeneratoren für ein erweitertes Spektrum der zu berücksichtigenden Gefährdungen sowie die Analyse des Ausfalls von kritischen Infrastrukturen bei Hochwasser werden aktuell entwickelt.
First part: Some information about the tragic flood event 2021 in Germany (from an observer perspective) Second part: some idea how we can do it better (from a research point of view)
We present here some new research topics within flood risk management. Focus is on tools, rain generators and critical infrastructures . It is a mix of German and English.
Mit diesem Poster wird ein Vorschlag formuliert, wie kritische Infrastrukturen in das Hochwasserrisikomanagment aufgenommen werden können.
Precipitation time series with high spatial and temporal resolutions are the driving force for hydrodynamic modelling of floods. Spatially-uniform precipitation correlated to a certain return period which typically is derived based on point rainfall records have been used for flood risk evaluation. This is mainly due to reasons such as limited observed data, low-density measuring networks or merely the inherent simplicity of using spatially-uniform rain storms in flood simulations. While the use of such rainfalls is convenient, spatially-uniform design storms tend to neglect the impact of rain spatial variability on the hydrological response of the hydrological catchment. Additionally, extreme storm events with high temporal and spatial variability are predicted to occur more often as a result of climate change. In this work, we study the extent spatially explicit precipitation can affect flooded areas, water levels and surface flow generation in catchment areas in flood modelling. Moreover, the influence of rainfall spatial resolution is also taken into account. This is achieved by means of physically-based, spatially explicit surface flow simulations using the tool ProMaIDes (2021), a free software for risk-based evaluation of flood risk mitigation measures. Precipitation data is generated based on the Poisson distribution and furthermore spatially interpolated in different resolutions using interpolation methods such as the Inversed Distance Squared method and Kriging. Our study area is the Kan river catchment located in the province of Tehran (Iran) with a total area of 836 km², which has experienced multiple flooding events in recent years. Due to its semi-arid climate and steep topography, the area has high potential for flash flood occurrence as a result of high intensity precipitation. The results of this study show a range of possible magnitudes of influence of rainfall spatial variability on the catchment´s runoff response. The resulting flood maps highlight the importance of rainfall spatial-temporal variability in the estimation of flood likelihood in urban catchment areas. Moreover, the flood maps resulting from spatially explicit rain signals provide a more comprehensive assessment of flooding in contrast to the spatially-uniform rainfall events, which allows for better flood risk mitigation decisions.
This poster is used for a 2 minute pitch at the vEGU 2021. https://vimeo.com/546488950
This presentation was given in the surrounding of the EGU and accepted through the submission of following abstract: In flood risk analysis it is a key principle to predetermine consequences of flooding to assets, people and infrastructures. Damages to critical infrastructures are not restricted to the flooded area. The effects of directly affected objects cascades to other infrastructures, which are not directly affected by a flood. Modelling critical infrastructure networks is one possible answer to the question ‘how to include indirect and direct impacts to critical infrastructures?’. Critical infrastructures are connected in very complex networks. The modelling of those networks has been a basis for different purposes (Ouyang, 2014). Thus, it is a challenge to determine the right method to model a critical infrastructure network. For this example, a network-based and topology-based method will be applied (Pant et al., 2018). The basic model elements are points, connectors and polygons which are utilized to resemble the critical infrastructure network characteristics. The objective of this model is to complement the state-of-the-art flood risk analysis with a quantitative analysis of critical infrastructure damages and disruptions for people and infrastructures. These results deliver an extended basis to differentiate the flood risk assessment and to derive measures for flood risk mitigation strategies. From a technical point of view, a critical infrastructure damage analysis will be integrated into the tool ProMaIDes (Bachmann, 2020), a free software for a risk-based evaluation of flood risk mitigation measures. The data on critical infrastructure cascades and their potential linkages is scars but necessary for an actionable modelling. The CIrcle method from Deltares delivers a method for a workshop that has proven to deliver applicable datasets for identifying and connecting infrastructures on basis of cascading effects (de Bruijn et al., 2019). The data gained from CIrcle workshops will be one compound for the critical infrastructure network model. Acknowledgment: This work is part of the BMBF-IKARIM funded project PARADes (Participatory assessment of flood related disaster prevention and development of an adapted coping system in Ghana).
Depending on the location different coastal flood protection structures are used on the North and Baltic Sea. In addition to sea dikes there are flood protection walls and dunes, which are essential elements of flood protection. The coastal flood defense line is interrupted through punctual construction as coupure, sea sluices, sea locks and barrages. A coastal defense system often consists of a dike in combination with other coastal protection elements like summer dike, coastal protection forest or a second dike line. The development of an application-oriented damage or risk-analysis is necessary to determine the flood risk. Therefore, the knowledge of relevant failure mechanisms of various flood protection structures is needed. (in German)
Zur Lösung wasserbaulicher Fragestellungen stellen Modelle ein wesentliches Werkzeug dar. Es stehen dem Anwender verschiedene Arten der Modellbildung zur Verfügung, welche unterschiedliche Vor- und Nachteile aufweisen. Die Kombination verschiedener Modellarten wird als hybride Modellierung bezeichnet. Aufgrund von Synergien durch eine solche hybride Modellierung kann die Qualität der Aussagen verbessert werden. Im Rahmen dieses Artikels werden der Aufbau und das Potential einer voll gekoppelten hybriden Modellierung zwischen einem detaillierten physikalischen Modell und einem großräumigen numerischen Modell anhand einer praktischen Anwendung gezeigt.
Zur Beantwortungen wasserbaulicher Fragestellungen stellen Modelle ein wesentliches Werkzeug dar. Die Kombination verschiedener Modellarten wird als hybride Modellierung bezeichnet. Aufgrund von Synergien durch eine hybride Modellierung kann die Qualität der Aussagen verbessert werden. Aufbau und Potenzial einer gekoppelten hybriden Modellierung werden anhand einer praktischen Anwendung gezeigt.
This presentation summarizes a few thoughts about a risk based evaluation of flood plain management as a flood risk mitigation measure.
Modern flood risk mitigation strategies consist of various types of measures. These types affect a flood event in very different ways and they can be located in different places of a catchment. For example, afforestation in a catchment has an effect to the discharge generation, widening of a river effects the water level, strengthening of dikes (flood defence line) avoid flood spreading or flood adapted construction helps to mitigate damages in the hinterland. Reduction of flood risk in the system (catchment) due to implementing a measure provides a powerful quantitative value to evaluate the performance of a measure. It allows also a quantitative, objective ranking of measures, even if they are of a different type. However, the requirements to the flood risk analysis are high: hydrological analysis (catchment), statistical analysis (hydrodynamic boundaries), hydrodynamic analysis (river, flood plain), reliability analysis (flood defence line) and analysis of consequences (hinterland) are required and must be combined in a risk analysis approach. A step from local-based risk analysis approaches to system-based approaches is essential. Such system-based approaches open up new possibilities to evaluate types of measures, such as dike height reduction. Analysed with a local-based risk analysis, they would show always a negative effect. We applied a system-based risk approach (PROMAIDES) at the Emscher-river – a strong dike-protected river with high damage potential located in the Ruhr area (Germany) - and analysed the effect of dike height reduction measures to the system. Results of this study will be presented and the added value of a system-based approach discussed.
In this presentation I summarized in quite provocative way 6 theses how a future flood risk analysis / management should look like in practice. Some of these theses are state of research but the practice is in general still far away from it. The presentation is in German.
The modular-designed decision support system PROMAIDES is a tool for computer-based support in the selection of flood protection measures. This presentation summarizes the theory (diffusive wave approach) of the hydrodynamic module and shows performance and quality tests for several model set-ups.
Several islands in the northfrisian part of the UNESCO - World Natural Heritage Wadden Sea are exposed to extreme storm surges due to climate change and sea level rise. Existing coastal protection measures in this area do not consider the future sea state and are mainly based on tradition and expert knowledge. The two projects HoRisK and ZukunftHallig (supported by the German Coastal Engineering Research Council) focus on this area and implement the requirements defined in the Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risk. The main objects of the projects are the design and evaluation of new coastal protection techniques for the investigation area. With numerical simulations hydrological parameters are investigated in order to design new coastal protection- and management strategies. The decision support system PROMAIDES (Protection Measure against Inundation Decision Support) developed at the Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management of the RWTH Aachen University analyzes the effects and reliability of new coastal protection techniques and evaluates inundation areas and economic damages for different hydrological boundary conditions. As a result flood risk and hazard maps are shown in this work. Furthermore sensitivity analyses expose possible variations in future storm surges and illustrate the difference in significant wave heights for varying wind climates. This risk based approach of both projects is a suitable way to ensure life for further generations on these islands under sustainable ecological und economic conditions. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the KFKI (German Coastal Engineering Research Council) and the German Federal Ministery of Education and Research (BMBF) (Project No. 03KIS094 and 03KIS078)
River-flood protection measures are often planned and coordinated on the basis of flood-risk analyses, e.g. in the context of flood action plans (LAWA 1999). In these plans, scenario-based approaches are widely used, with their focus on defined levels of protection in the river basin. However, this approach does not capture the full spectrum of complex risk patterns. The REISE-project aims at developing a decision support system, which will contribute to improved flood protection concepts that are adapted to the risk domain by integrating economic, ecological, and psycho-social consequences as well as cost aspects. In the following, the scientific concept of the REISE project is presented.
Moderne Hochwasserschutzstrategien /-konzepte basieren auf der Integration und der Kombination von Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen mit unterschiedlichen Wirkungsweisen auf den Hochwasserschutz. Das Spektrum reicht von Maßnahmen des natürlichen Rückhalts über den technischen Hochwasserschutz bis hin zur Hochwasservorsorge. Die Wirkung der Maßnahmenarten erstreckt sich über unterschiedliche Bereiche im Einzugsgebiet. Um die Effektivität dieser unterschiedlichen Maßnahmen vergleichbar zu machen, ist ein einheitliches Kriterium notwendig. Das computerbasierte Entscheidungsunterstützungssystems ProMaIDes (Protection Measure against Inundation Decision Support) nutzt das integrative Hochwasserrisiko als Basis zur Bewertung des vorhandenen Hochwasserschutzes. Der Effekt von Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen auf das integrative Hochwasserrisiko dient als Entscheidungskriterium zur Priorisierung der Maßnahmen und kann damit wesentlich den Entscheidungsprozess im Rahmen der Entwicklung von Hochwasserschutzkonzepten unterstützen.
Modern flood protection strategies / -concepts are based on the integration and combination of flood protection measures with different effects on flood protection. Natural retention, technical flood protection or flood prevention are different types of flood protection measures. The effect of these types of measures extends over different areas in the catchment. In order to make the effectiveness comparable a single criterion is required. The computer-based decision support system ProMalDes (Protection Measure against Inundation Decision Support) uses the integrated flood risk as a basis for the assessment of existing flood protection. The decision criterion bases upon the effect of flood protection measures on the integrated flood risks. Thus, it supports significantly the decision-making process in the development of flood protection concepts.
Flood risk analysis is a fundamental element in the evaluation of existing flood protection (EU 2007). The spatial scale refers to the catchment. Hydrological and geomorphological characteristics of the catchment are to be considered as well as existing flood protection structures. The currently applied approaches to flood risk analysis only partially manage to meet all these demands. Any failures of flood protection structures are generally not being taken account of. This paper presents an approach to flood risk analysis on a catchment area scale taking account of the reliability of flood protection structures, thus allowing for a more detailed flood risk modelling.
The modular-designed decision support system PROMAIDES is a tool for computer-based support in the selection of flood protection measures. The effectiveness of a protective measure is evaluated using risk-based criteria. Additionally, the cost criteria (COST module) which evaluate the cost directly caused by the implementation of such a measure are taken into account. PROMAIDES includes a modul for a model-based flood risk analysis which comprises three basic analyses: - Reliability analysis (FPL module): The probability of the failure of flood defence structures, such as dikes or flood walls, is quantified. -Hydrodynamic analysis (HYD module): The flood event is transformed into hydraulic variables, such as water levels or flow velocities, taking into account the morphological characteristics of the river and the hinterland. -Consequence analysis (DAM module): The hydraulic variables of a flood event across areas of specific land use are converted into consequences for the people, assets and goods located in these affected areas of the hinterland. The task of the risk analysis (RISK module) is to combine the results of the named basic analyses into an integrated flood risk for the analysed system. In order to effectively support the design and selection of flood protection measures, the PROMAIDES software package is supplemented with a graphical user interface and a database interface besides the mathematical algorithms which prioritise flood protection measures, based on multiple attribute decision methods (MADM module).