NTUA - Civil Engineering Team for EGU 2017

Integrated modeling of hybrid water-energy systems, comprising conventional and renewable energy sources, pumped-storage facilities and other infrastructures, which aim to serve combined water and energy uses, is a highly challenging problem. On the one hand, such systems are subject to significant uncertainties that span over all associated input processes, physical and anthropogenic (i.e., hydrometeorological drivers and water-energy demands, respectively). On the other hand, the everyday operation of such systems is subject to multiple complexities, due to the conflicting uses, constraints and economic interests. Taking as example a future configuration of the electric system of Ikaria Island, Greece, we demonstrate a stochastic simulation framework, comprising: (a) a synthetic time series generator that reproduces the statistical and stochastic properties (i.e., marginal distributions, auto- and cross-dependencies) of all input processes, at multiple temporal scales; and (b) a simulation module employing the hourly operation of the system, to estimate the associated water, energy and financial fluxes. This scheme is used within two case studies, i.e. the optimal design of key system components, and the real-time operation of a hypothetical energy market, involving different energy providers and associated electricity sources, conventional and renewable.

Here we simulate the electrical energy demand in the remote island of Astypalaia. To this end we obtain information regarding the local socioeconomic conditions and energy demand needs. The available hourly demand load data are analyzed at various time scales (hourly, weekly, daily, seasonal). The cross-correlations between the electricity demand load and the mean daily temperature are computed. An exploratory data analysis including all variables is performed to find hidden relationships. Finally, the demand is simulated. The simulation time series will be used in the development of a framework for planning of a hybrid renewable energy system in Astypalaia.

We simulate the electrical energy demand in the remote island of Astypalaia. To this end we first obtain information regarding the local socioeconomic conditions and energy demand. Secondly, the available hourly demand data are analysed at various time scales (hourly, weekly, daily, seasonal). The cross-correlations between the electrical energy demand and the mean daily temperature as well as other climatic variables for the same time period are computed. Also, we investigate the cross-correlation between those climatic variables and other variables related to renewable energy resources from numerous observations around the globe in order to assess the impact of each one to a hybrid renewable energy system. An exploratory data analysis including all variables is performed with the purpose to find hidden relationships. Finally, the demand is simulated considering all the periodicities found in the analysis. The simulation time series will be used in the development of a framework for planning of a hybrid renewable energy system in Astypalaia.

Non-connected islands to the electric gird are often depending on oil-fueled power plants with high unit cost. A hybrid energy system with renewable resources such as wind and solar plants could reduce this cost and also offer more environmental friendly solutions. However, atmospheric processes are characterized by high uncertainty that does not permit harvesting and utilizing full of their potential. Therefore, a more sophisticated framework that somehow incorporates this uncertainty could improve the performance of the system. In this context, we describe several stochastic and financial aspects of this framework. Particularly, we investigate the cross-correlation between several atmospheric processes and the energy demand, the possibility of mixing renewable resources with the conventional ones and in what degree of reliability, and critical financial subsystems such as weather derivatives. A pilot application of the above framework is also presented for a remote island in the Aegean Sea.