Macro Theory

The Turkish social insurance system has been feverishly debated for years, particularly through its burden on the economy. The most recent reform is an attempt to neutralize the deterioration within the social security system and its effects on the economy. After the recent reform, ‘the way that retirement benefits are calculated’ is changed unfavorably for workers and the minimum age for retirement is increased. In particular, for an agent with 25 years of social security tax payments, the replacement rate is down from 65 percent to 50 percent. On the other hand, retirement age is up from 60 to 65. The aim of this paper is to investigate the macroeconomic effects of these changes using an OLG model. The author’s findings indicate that labor supply, output and capital stock increase when changes above are applied to the benchmark economy calibrated to the Turkish economy data in 2005. A critical change with the current reform is that the marginal benefit of working has become uniform over ages. In a simulation exercise, the marginal retirement benefit in the benchmark economy is changed to be uniform over ages while keeping the size of social security system unchanged. As a result, the benefit of retiring at a later period increases. However, uniform distribution of the marginal benefits itself decreases both the capital stock and output of the economy. Increasing the retirement age, on the other hand, has positive effects on the economy since agents obtain retirement benefits for fewer years and at an older age. Age increase has substantial positive effects on the labor supply, the capital stock, and the output.

After the Great Recession of 2008–2009, advanced economies of the West predominantly went by the Keynesian expansionary policies. Nowadays, though, the monetary policies are diverging. Central banks are diverging on their policies as the global economies continue their significant downward convergence trend. More than 40 central banks have eased their monetary policy in 2015. The ECB, the PBOC and the BOJ are expected to ease further looking forward. Central Banks of many other emerging markets and those of advanced economies such as the USA and the UK are expected to tighten. Uncertainties about the future decrease risk appetite. Capital outflows from emerging markets and fall in trade volumes follow.