Project

Lean Energy Management

Goal: This research was over the span of more than a decade culminating in the book, Computer-Aided Lean Management for the Energy Industry, Roger N. Anderson, Albert Boulanger, John A. Johnson, Arthur Kressner, PennWell Books, 2008

See: http://leanenergy.org

Updates
0 new
0
Recommendations
0 new
0
Followers
0 new
3
Reads
0 new
50

Project log

Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
Worst Blowout Ever? Coastal wetlands fouled? Seafood safe to eat? Miners killed? Survivors trapped for MONTHS? Drinking water polluted? Pipeline explosions? Refinery fires? Tanker spills? The BP blowout in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has not quite faded from public view, but the ramifications of shaky safety practices will rattle throughout the worldwide energy industry for decades to come. What's going to fix our energy industry? Let's start with the obvious. In our book, Computer-Aided Lean Management, we pointed to three exemplary manufacturing companies to guide the way to the transition to both cheaper and better systems engineering practices. Since publication of the book, Toyota and GE have both fallen on hard times. Only Boeing continues to excel. The lesson is that sustaining Lean Management processes requires constant vigilance to prevent sabotage of the very improvements and efficiencies that were so difficult to win in the first place. After first getting it right, what Toyota and GE did wrong is a powerful lesson for BP and the Energy Industry worldwide. Constant vigilance and challenges to business-as-usual will be required, once we get it right in the first place. The energy industry will require double vigilance as we recover from our bad incentive programs: improper executive bonuses, ill conceived cost cutting, poor merger management, and faulty decision making. My best answer to how we don't fall off the Lean log, assuming we make it in the first place, is to watch the New York Times. The "Grey Lady" is the "Newspaper of Record" for a reason. Subscribe in the morning, then observe every evening how not only the cable TV news, but also mainstream channels repeat what you read that morning in the Times. The Times has not only an editorial culture of self-criticism, but also an independent The Energy Industry can only hope for that kind of self examination, AFTER we have gotten to Lean Management in the first place. To get that far will require extraordinary leadership from the very tops of every major energy company in the world, including government-owned, internationals, and independents. A tall task indeed. Let's start with Lean Manufacturing. As you read in my last blog, we tried to convince BP that Lean Systems Integration was required for billion dollar, deep water oil and gas production in the 1990's. We even brought in Boeing to demonstrate that independent contractors, often welding on dirt manufacturing floors, could not see the big picture that life-of-system design and maintenance requires for superior performance. That money spent upfront creates savings in the long run is a hard lesson to learn.
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
Let's start with the obvious: We build and maintain better systems that drive safer energy practices? Two exemplary Lean management companies referred to in my recent book, Computer-Aided Lean Management, Toyota and Boeing, have fallen on hard times. However, the lessons learned from these prestigious companies fallen on hard times carry important meaning to the energy world. Sustaining safe management and manufacturing processes requires constant vigilance to prevent sabotage of the very improvements and efficiencies that were so difficultly won in the first place. Let's start with Toyota.
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
Roger Anderson's Older Patents, in Oiland Gas and Smart Electric Grid
Roger Anderson Patents Volume 3 consists of Patent Applications in the works that are liensable via Columbia Tech Ventures while they are being evaluated by the Patent office. The subjects of these patent applications derive from DOE funded Stimulus funding for a Smart Electric Grid thru Con Edison.
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
Artificial Intelligence using Cross-Disciplinary Machine Learning Technologies.
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
With the current emphasis of countries around the world on improving internal infrastructure by Smartening the Electric Grid, replacing hydrocarbons with alternative energy sources, repairing aging roads and bridges, and better securing our water systems, I've been thinking a lot about Rick Smalley of Rice University. He discovered the "Buckyball", or Carbon Fullerene, and won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1996. Then, his newly found freedom of thought took him on a crusade to convert the discovery into practical nanotechnologies to solve the world's energy problems. Just as he was building a national consensus, he was struck down by cancer and he died in 2005. In the midst of a global recession, his crusade to produce and transmit enough energy to satisfy the needs of everyone on the planet has been picked up not only by the United States, but the European Union, and particularly in China and Asia. In his "remission years," Rick was convinced that one of the biggest impediments to abundant and cheap energy for all was that there simply were not enough scientists and engineers choosing to work in the energy professions. Many more would be needed to invent the discoveries necessary to keep up with energy growth, let alone produce the abundance that would free the planet from hunger, disease, and yes, he believed, even war. When the oil price collapsed from $25 to $12/barrel at the end of the 1990's, energy industry management slashed their technical and scientific staffs. These cuts were on top of the merger-mania layoffs of the 1980's. They were so extreme that when the companies finally began, belatedly, to hire again in 2005 (when oil passed $40 a barrel), an entire generation of knowledge-workers had been lost, leaving the industry technically shorthanded. Even after that heart-stopping peak in oil price of $147/barrel in July of 2008, energy companies have not been able to keep up with retirements of their graying workforces. Too few new scientists and engineers are entering the energy profession. And that includes electric utilities as well as oil and gas companies. Right up to the day he died, Rick was crying out that the graying and massive retirement wave taking the old, experienced knowledge-base out of the industry, and the failure to hire and train several new generations of the world's "best-and-brightest" could be devastating to the continued development of the energy industry. Back in 1998, I wrote an article called "Oil Production in the 21 st Century" for a special issue of Scientific American on the "End of Cheap Oil." I was feeling optimistic about the technologies for production growth keeping up with international demand in the energy industry. Unfortunately, shortsighted executive decisions to merge many giant oil companies into few and fire more than half of the total workforce were decidedly not logical. Consequently, the technologies that once offered such great promise were developed with hardly a thought given to safe operations for the life of these newly invented assets. Rick would be very sad indeed, but not only because of the worst blowout ever, or the coastal wetlands fouled, or seafood unsafe to eat. He would have connected the blowout to mining catastrophes, fouled drinking
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
Estimates of elemental and mineralogical abundances from geochemical logs are compared to preliminary chemical and modal analyses from cores in the Cajon Pass Scientific Drillhole. Accuracies of log-computed weight percent oxide and mineralogy determinations range from 10 to 30%.
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
THE SOLUTION Di-BOSS is the next-generation Digital Building Operating System Solution that optimizes energy consumption to save streams to proactively recommend real-time system adjust-THE EXPERIENCE systems specialists at Selex ES, elite research scientist and THE REQUIREMENT With today's energy prices and focus on conservation and sustainability, intelligent building operators need systems that provide reliable, real-time data to make effective decisions. More than that, they need systems programmed with logical, machine learning algorithms that insightfully analyze continuous streams of data, respond with sound, proactive recommendations, and learn for the next round. tenants to positively impact the 60% of energy consumption they control: In short, a Digital Building Operating System.
Roger N. Anderson
added 16 research items
On August 2-3, the Arizona Solar Summit 2011 brought together industry leaders, major landowners, research institutions, and federal, state, and local government representatives to discuss policies, projects, and collaborations necessary to significantly advance the solar energy industry on a regional and national scale. This report summarizes the Solar Summit. Solar Summit Vision: By building and maintaining world-class market, industry, policy, and research capabilities, Arizona is the global leader in solar energy and the birthplace of America's solar industry. Solar Summit Purpose: To engage participants and move forward with collaborations that advance toward this vision in meaningful ways. The Solar Summit promotes linking and leveraging resources among individuals and organizations to expand productive investment in Arizona's solar industry Solar Summit Process: During the summit, three workshop panels-Solar Industry Cluster, Utility of the Future and Solar Energy Policy-explored different dimensions of Arizona's leadership in the solar energy industry. Summit participants identified strategic collaborations designed to mobilize ideas, resources, and actions to strengthen Arizona's solar energy capabilities as a global innovator. At the end of the Summit, over forty attendees signed up for one or more of the following 14 areas of potential collaboration: Arizona Solar Industry Cluster Workshop Collaborations Identified 1. Solar finance and investor education 2. Economic development organizations, universities, companies focused on multiple supply chains for internal and external growth 3. Develop talent to move into cluster especially by universities 4. Market development-AZ as test bed of new ideas, transmission, sustainable market development 5. Build the narrative 6. University technology research collaborations and strategic capacity building Utility of the Future Workshop Collaborations Identified 1. Transmission financing and siting 2. Education/university assistance on rate modernization 3. Ownership of EE/RE by utilities-revenue generation
The success of the Summit will depend entirely on the contributions of the participants. To ensure that we maximize the opportunities to leverage the collective knowledge of the group, we ask that you complete the enclosed Workbook Part 1 and deliver it at Registration on August 2. Your early views and ideas will inform the work ahead. Please also take a minute now to review all of the material in the enclosed binder:  Summit Info o Agenda o List of Attendees o Rules of Engagement o Instructions for polling using mobile phones  Bios of speakers and discussion leaders  Participant Workbook  Solar Facts  Materials For additional reference material, please visit www.solarsummit.wordpress.com. There you will find materials and links to reports that may be useful as background information for the workshop discussions. Extra space is left in the enclosed binder for storage of the materials you find most appropriate. (The binder also has room enough for materials created in the work that will follow the Summit, as we define that work on August 2-3.)
Water use for thermoelectric power generation has been a growing concern in recent years. The large amount of water consumed for power generation, combined with the trend for greater demand promises to increase consumption in future years. We evaluate water use in various electric power generation technologies, compare water use for power generation with other uses, and examine alternate sources of water for power generation.
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
The majority of helicopters in use are for crew transport only. Heavy lift helicopters in this segment are generally used for offshore transport of greater than 100 miles.
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
Details of DARPA and the Internet Development History 2012
For the purposes of this study, we have segmented the value chain in terms of systems, air frame, and aircraft systems.
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
Universal One Method to Access All Data Sources Locate User Does Not Need to Know Data Location/Format Grouping Powerful Query Capability, Construct Any Group of Components, Parameters, etc. Views Superimpose Data or View in Different Ways Drill-Down Links to Related Information to Slice and Dice Data Monitor Performance, Availability, Reliability Analysis Statistics, Trend Analysis, and Failure Prediction Automate Automated Data Collection, Analysis, and Status Display Activities Schedule Schedule Activities for Off-Peak Hours Reports Drop Results Into Periodic Status Reports
Roger N. Anderson
added 3 research items
The new energy requirements that will be necessary in the next years will demand a change in the current paradigm for the electricity grids. The need for integrating a higher level of renewable resources, the imminent electric vehicles, and the possibility of actively control all the devices connected to the grid, are some examples of these new challenges. This report, begins justifying the need for this new energy model, continues describing a suitable architecture in order to build a secure and energy sustainable city from the standpoint of electrical distribution and ends presenting a demonstration project of such technology in the nice city of Malaga currently under development by ENDESA.
Review of Energy and NanoTech �� ��������� � ������� �������� ���research at Rice University Baker Institute 2005
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
we have named the Downstate Regional Energy Technology Accelerator (DRETA). DRETA will be a virtual incubator with the primary objective of creating and fostering more – and more successful – clean energy start-ups based on promising technology emerging from all of Downstate New York’s outstanding research institutions. DRETA will do this by directly supporting start-up efforts both pre-launch and post-launch, and bringing these technology ventures towards successful commercialization. Our overarching goal will be to help drive new businesses, job creation, and application of clean energy technologies across New York State.
Speakers • Tim Angus, CEO, REGEN Energy • HG Chissell, SVP, Viridity Energy • Ron Ambrosio, CTO, Smarter Energy Research, IBM • Roger Anderson, Center for Computational Learning Systems, Columbia University
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
Tracking Machine Learning along these cross disciplinary paths….Tesla meets Metcalfe and Kandel.
Leverage Social media, Business Intelligence, Learning models and Visualization to reliably predict outcomes, explain causal relationships between actions and outcomes, and support decision making by management. Specifically optimize targeting of advertising campaigns, nature of advertising campaigns, use of specials, coupons, package deals, etc. to maximize key performance indicators, timing of actions, varying margins to find optimal profit points, etc.
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
Benefits: Energy Reduction (electricity/steam/gas) Pre-Start Energy Storage and Usage Optimal Start-Up Timing Comfort Steering Control/Action Ramp-Down Savings as occupants leave the building Baseload Reduction for Tenants Coordinated Demand Response with Utility Targeted Energy Hedging and Renegotiation Planning Capital Expense (CAPEX) Optimization Benchmarking Optimal Capital Allocations Timing and Magnitude of expenditures Operating Expense (OPEX) Reduction Preventive Maintenance Vendor Management Overtime Management Revenue Increases Tenants Retention/Attraction Lease negotiation Sustainability Correction of LEEDS/Energy Star Certifications
Putting the Smart in Smart Cities, Buildings & Grids: Approximate Dynamic Programing (ADP) & Machine Learning
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
Key Messages Boeing is pursuing four initiatives to accelerate long-term growth and productivity gains across the enterprise: Lean+ is the foundational initiative and the key to success with the others: Internal Services Productivity, Global Sourcing and Development Process Excellence. Lean+ is the one overarching continuous improvement approach at Boeing. It fosters a culture where good ideas can flourish, then be shared and replicated across the value stream – from our supplier partners to our customers. Employees across the company have long focused on eliminating waste in products and services. What’s new about Lean+ is how it aligns and integrates Boeing’s continuous improvement efforts so we have a one-company approach. It’s not an add-on. It needs to be embedded in the way we think about, talk about and do our daily work. Lean+ uses and promotes a common language, and common processes, training and tools, to accelerate improvement and provide employees access to the best of Boeing. Lean+ leverages the company’s greatest strength: its people -- and the knowledge and skills they bring to the workplace. Lean+ helps us meet our customer’s ongoing need for quality and value so Boeing can continue to grow and thrive in a highly competitive global marketplace.
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
•Parametric 3D Solids •Dimensional Management •Virtual Manufacturing •Model Based Definition (Int/Ext) • Single Source of Product Data •Virtual Collaboration
CALM decision support system developed at Con Edison • Near term value for DEP – Virtual SCADA using AMR build out - Pilot • Long term value for both Con Edison and NYCDEP
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
We have developed a Machine Learning Energy Tuning System (MLS) for owners who manage a portfolio of large energy consuming facilities such as microgrids (e.g., Columbia’s Morningside Heights and Manhattanville campuses, Luke Air Force Base), commercial and residential skyscrapers (Rudin Management in Manhattan), electric vehicle fleets (Fedex Express and UPS) and large construction projects (Turner Construction, Lend Lease). The MLS is patented and is being deployed as part of a DOE Smart Grid Demonstration Project at Con Edison in New York City (U.S. Patent 7,395,252 and others pending. In order to tune successfully, the MLS must contain modules for 1) data acquisition of the energy consumption and environmental footprint of each individual building within the portfolio, 2) automate metrics and measure against a baseline of improvement that must be determined in advance, 3). Use machine learning models such as Support Vector Machines and Martingale Boosting to continually learn from the past performance of each building in the facility, so that 4) tuning of the energy consumption can be optimized using Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) that learns from building history and advanced weather diagnostics to 5) predict future energy consumption for all buildings within the portfolio, so that 6) cost benefit can be verified and 7) a feedback loop established so that real option economic models can maintain the facility on the efficient frontier of energy efficiency.
Unique ability to combine deep power technology capabilities with long history serving DoD and MoD customers to improve energy surety and efficiency of defense installations
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
Executive Summary In response to the NYSERDA PON, we propose creating a proof-of concept center, the Downstate Regional Energy Technology Accelerator (DRETA). DRETA will be a virtual incubator with the primary objective of creating and fostering more-and more successful-clean energy start-ups based on promising technology emerging from all of Downstate New York's outstanding research institutions. DRETA will do this by directly supporting start-up efforts both pre-launch and post-launch, bringing these technology ventures towards successful commercialization. Our overarching goal will be to help drive new businesses, job creation, and application of clean energy technologies across New York State. Our secondary objective is to create a sustainable regional innovation ecosystem and community to support sustainable energy efficiency entrepreneurship across New York State. For example, student teams would be involved throughout in technical and business supporting roles, to help train the next generation of scientists and entrepreneurs; educational events and "boot camps" fostering clean energy entrepreneurship would be made available to the community at large; and connections facilitating entrepreneurship and job creation would be made among researchers, industry, start-ups, and investors. By doing so, in addition to the potential success of projects and ventures that receive direct funding, the energy efficiency
Roger N. Anderson
added 3 research items
Our Martingale Stochastic Controller for Control Center Operations embodiment's purpose is for remote sub-sea decisions in a real time control e-Field setting affecting the form and timing of gas, oil, and water production in the ultra deepwater based on reinforcement learning. The policies this Stochastic Controller generates are termed in finance theory “martingales.” That is, the decisions are always in-the-money with respect to both profitability and engineering efficiency. The controller achieves lower level control objectives at the same time that it is maximizes the expected value of discounted cash flows under reservoir, technical, and market uncertainties. The Martingale Stochastic Controller makes it possible to implement Real Options as well as regulatory, supervisory, and scheduling control, operational and capacity planning functions necessary to conduct remote technical and business operations. A key element to a reinforcement learning based controller is the ability to simulate the processes being controlled.
17 Patents Licensed to FNM, split 50/50 between Rudin and Columbia
FM Data Collection, 15 Years, 30M+ SF Maps, Floor Plans, Occupancy, Equipment Existing Building Surveys - “XBS Program” Brown Field Floor Plans - 15K SF / Day Project Database Services - “PDS Program” Integrate A/E/C Projects w/ Data Collection
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
Main impact of a blackout on a commercial building: people stuck in elevators/don’t know where elevators are. If we had know that there was going to be a blackout, even a few tens of seconds in advance we could have stopped elevators at closest floor. Create interoperability between building system and ConEd. Then we began thinking about other optimizations that could be achieved by receiving live data feeds from the grid and from the building... Interoperability within a building or portfolio of buildings. Load reduction. Occupancy sensing. Comfort monitoring.
CCLS, will support the American side of the FNM Greenhouse Project in the spring and summer of 2013. Our mission will be to teach outstanding young FNM engineers how to think out of their comfort-zones of initial skill sets, and how to innovatively create new business concepts that cross disciplines within the global footprint of FNM. The program would nurture their entrepreneurial talents and focus their creation of business plans that might result in breakout products and new businesses for FNM in the near future. We will teach the new computational skills required to automatically scan the new "Big Data" of the future to analyze, interpret and forecast better solutions to business problems across the wide spectrum of FNM companies and products.
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
We propose to design a real time intelligent system for dynamic smart building energy management and deliver a plan for future costs and timing of implementation of the system. The proposal will focus on studying Columbia University Middle East Research Center as our demonstration and testing facilities.
Asset Tracking Supply-Chain Management After Cost Cuts, What Happens? Minimize Cycle-Time across Enterprise
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
Today, the Department of Defense (DOD) is beset by budgetary problems, hampered by worn- out equipment, faced with sky- rocketing personnel costs, and spread thin in short- and long-term obligations that span the globe. One business process change that will improve force effectiveness, reduce mission risk resulting from high fuel and logistics demand, and, by fortunate coincidence, help mend budgets is implementation of energy metrics for operational systems.
Presentation by Albert Boulanger atARPA-E Conference on New Machine Learning Products for Energy Solutions. Many opportunities for ML in R&D of new energy sources and design energy systems, and in addition, the big win is a data science/ML approach to the whole lifecycle of a technology, especially with large CAPEX projects Example: Building Information Models (BIMs) developed for design but increasingly used throughout lifecycle of buildings with ML used in Design and Operate: Integrated Systems Model (ISM), GE’s digital twin. Planning becomes real-time and merges with operate. Financial Evaluation: Real Options using Reinforcement Learning.
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
1. ENERGY SECURITY 2. ENERGY ECONOMIC AFFORDABILITY 3. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY ENERGY EFFICIENCY/CONSERVATION IS A READILY AVAILABLE SOLUTION ISSUES TO OVERCOME • • Fragmentation along the tech / info dimension • Policies harmonized at local and global level • Constructive Dialogue Between Stakeholders • Continuous review of technical solutions • Tackles multiple issues at once • Measurable & Short-term results • Social engagement & behaviors • Mismatch: bearers of costs vs savings beneficiaries Multi-domain knowledge needed WHAT IT TAKES PARTNERSHIPS, ‘Eco-system’ of players • INTEROPERABILITY, Open real time data • MACHINE LEARNING & CYBER PROTECTION
Roger N. Anderson
added 7 research items
Major reason to visit meter clerk was to find out why customer gets orders late – must have paper work done at meter clerk, Sherlock events at clerk have to do with meter installation timing, whether it is functioning correctly. New business will often issue date as the time they got the order. Meter not turned on for several days to weeks.
PROBLEM: Often the Disconnect Order is from an Disgruntled Husband or Wife in the midst of a Divorce, calling to disconnect electricity on waring Spouse….
Final bill or activation bills that needs rebilling due to bad system pro-rations. This occurs because the system is looking at the usage for the same time last year rather than the last month or two to see spikes or dips in consumption. Note: Not always WFMs off the bat, but the rebilling needed can then cause a WFM because not all CSRs complete their own orders.
Roger N. Anderson
added 4 research items
The enclosed white paper provides a framework to guide development of power and energy capabilities which support Army requirements in the near, mid and long-term. The document projects operational needs; identifies important performance attributes; assesses relevant technology opportunities; recommends priorities for future investment; and describes an implementation approach linking ongoing initiatives and plans with a coordinated path forward.
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
Equipment Distribution Systems Background Single Car Allocation Optimization Railcar Equipment Request Internet Tool Glint EDO Plan Overrides Intranet & Metrics
Medium-to-long term: Line capacity planning Short-to-medium term: Maintenance and improvement of the merchandise (carload) operating plan Short-term: Strengthening the tactical change process (new tools under development) Universal: Performance monitoring
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
A review of the interdependency relationship between: o Gas pipeline operations and planning, and o Electric generation operations and planning
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
To change state of refrigerant from vapor to liquid in most commercial units water is used as a transfer medium. Water evaporation (latent heat of evaporation= 970 BTU/lb ) is major factor in this process The evaporation rate is approximately 3 GPM per 100 tons of refrigeration. In very hot days 90deg+ Our evaporation is equal to 8,000 t = 9gpm*80= 720 gpm or 96 cf/min Last year our total evaporation was 8,407,390 cf
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
High confidence. Measured expectations. This year’s U.S. CEO Outlook finds CEOs ardently pursuing growth and technology-driven disruption, buoyed by high confidence in the U.S. economy and their own growth prospects. What’s changed since last year? The need for disruption has intensified further, and technology has emerged as the only driver of transformation for a majority of U.S. CEOs. Cybersecurity risk this year makes it back to the top of the list of risks, but it is no longer seen as a matter of implementing the basic blocking and tackling activities. CEOs now realize that full preparedness requires longer- term sustainability using Artificial Intelligence continuously.
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
• QuestionsAbouttheMarket Temporary or structural factors? Hubbert Curve? Speculative Bubble? • Isitaspeculativebubble? Rise of commodity investments Outline • TheBigChange Oil and other energy prices have moved substantially higher Interplay between Opec and investors It started one way, but now reflects something structural • Ifit’snot(only)speculation,itmustreflect structural factors
Addressing the challenge of global climate change will require a significant reduction in annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States and throughout the world—by 2050. This will require a fundamental shift from an economy predominantly based on fossil fuels to one based on efficiently managed low-carbon energy sources and technologies that capture and store carbon from fossil fuels. Such a transition could also have other benefits, including increased energy security, improved public health, and increased economic development. But the transition will not be easy, as significant technological challenges, social and economic concerns, and political constraints exist.
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
The idea behind this proposal is to build a stochastic controller based on reinforcement learning where the policies it generates are martingales (i.e. always in-the-money). The controller will achieve lower level control objectives and at the same time be in the money. Thus it implements real options as well as: Regulatory Control Supervisory Control Scheduling Operation Planning Capacity Planning functions necessary to conduct remote technical and business operations. We foresee application of this in resource exploitation applications in remote frontiers such as oil and gas exploitation the ultradeep waters, subsurface gas hydrate exploitation, and longer-term remote resource exploitation on other bodies or our solar system.
To better understand the potential impacts of its recommendations, the National Commission on Energy Policy assessed the energy, economic, and environmental impacts of a subset of its major policy proposals: the greenhouse-gas emissions-trading program; accelerated development and deployment of advanced energy technologies; and strengthened fuel-economy standards for light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty tractor-trailer trucks.
Roger N. Anderson
added 7 research items
Energy Management Objectives: Avoid high Utility Tariffs associated with Demand Billing Utilize Thyristor rectifier substations to limit power demand Monitor, predict and control power demand using a Machine Learning Central Processing System, BECAUSE: Power utility imposes demand billing for each substation LRT Systems have Low Demand Factor Heavily loaded during rush-hour Lightly loaded during non rush-hour No-load at night
Increase the Resiliency, Security and Supportability of our Urban Infrastructure while decreasing the environmental footprint.
Currently, supervisors in the field are dissatisfied with the inconvenience they experience as a result of inconsistent wireless connectivity. Often these professionals encounter disruption of connection bandwidth when traveling to remote and rural locations. With the mobile damage assessment system, supervisors will interact with the process server running on their local laptop, irrespective of connectivity. The process server independently and asynchronously contacts the host server, obtaining and using a connection whenever possible. For the supervisors, full interactivity is maintained, and they are alleviated from having to worry about connectivity. Field-extended Processes The Damage Assessment application employs the same process server and GUI platform on the remote device in the field as is employed at the server end. Communication between the two is via web services, in the same way that information flows between process pools within the application. Thus, it becomes possible for the organization to seamlessly extend process flows to the field, designing processes that include field activities as easily as home-office activities. Automated post-assessment activities (follow up) Rather than merely log damage assessment information into a repository, damage assessments initiate an entire damage assessment process. The process server allows for highly complex behaviors, including interaction with users, extent systems, and timing events, that can vary according to the situation. Multiple follow up activities (e.g. repair for gas and electric) along with long-term follow up activities (re-inspection) can be initiated, tracked automatically, and re-unified (for example, submitting an insurance claim including all related costs) all without human intervention. Automated pre-assessment activities (research) In many cases it is desirable to insure that checks are performed as matter of course, at the time of damage assessment. Specifically, while a supervisor is out checking a broken pole, the computer should be checking all previous reports to see if there were other damage incidents on the same pole, as a matter of standard policy. Rather than having to train supervisors how to perform such checks and then counting on them to do so, the process system allows for these types of pre-assessment activities to be performed automatically by the process server, which also automatically advises the supervisor if the results merit his/her attention.
Roger N. Anderson
added 3 research items
Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell The fundamental component of the fuel cell consists of two electrodes, the anode and the cathode, separated by a polymer membrane electrolyte. Each of the electrodes is coated on one side with a thin platinum catalyst layer. The electrodes, catalyst and membrane together form the membrane electrode assembly. Hydrogen fuel dissociates into free electrons and protons (positive hydrogen ions) in the presence of the platinum catalyst at the anode. The free electrons are conducted in the form of usable electric current through the external circuit. The protons migrate through the membrane electrolyte to the cathode. At the cathode, oxygen from air, electrons from the external circuit and protons combine to form pure water and heat. Individual fuel cells produce about 0.6 Volt and are combined into a fuel cell stack to provide the amount of electrical power required.
Energy transported as electrical energy over wire, rather than by transport of mass (coal, oil, gas) Vast electrical power grid on continental scale interconnecting ~ 200 million asynchronous. “local” storage and generation sites, entire system continually innovated by free enterprise “Local” = house, block, community, business, town, … Local storage = batteries, flywheels, hydrogen, etc. Local generation = reverse of local storage + local solar and geo Local “buy low, sell high” to electrical power grid Local optimization of days of storage capacity & quality of local power Electrical grid does not need to be very reliable Mass Primary Power input to grid via HV DC transmission lines from existing plants plus remote (up to 2000 mile) sources on TW scale, including vast solar farms in deserts, wind, NIMBY nuclear, clean coal, stranded gas, wave, hydro, space-based solar (SPS and LPS) Hydrogen is transportation fuel
Presents Primary Power Mix as of 1998, and then Future Constraints Imposed by Sustainability, then Theoretical and Practical Energy Potential of Various Renewables, and Challenges to Exploit these Renewables Economically on the Needed Scale. A good turn of the century perspective.
Roger N. Anderson
added 5 research items
Stabilizing future atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) levels at less than a doubling of pre-industrial levels will be a Herculean task, requiring a continuous flow of new carbon-free power 2-3 times greater than today's energy supply to sustain economic development for a global population approaching 10 billion by the mid 21st Century. The sun and wind are the two largest sustainable sources of carbon-free power, but in spite of dramatic cost declines for solar and wind technologies, they remain more costly today than electric generation from fossil fuels, especially in the case of photovoltaics (solar cells). The costs of solar and wind power are partially offset by their potential benefits as distributed electricity generation sources. However, even if future development reduces their cost substantially, widespread deployment of solar and wind power in the future will face the fundamental difficulty that they are intermittent, requiring demand flexibility, backup power sources, and very likely enough electricity storage for days to perhaps a week. Energy Storage Technologies Electricity is not usually stored per se. Energy storage technologies instead convert electricity to other energy forms (gravitational, pneumatic, kinetic, chemical), with a characteristic turnaround efficiency usually driven by the simplicity or complexity of conversion and reconversion between electricity and the stored energy form. For example, it can be 90-95% efficient to convert electricity to kinetic energy and back again by speeding up or slowing down a spinning flywheel. Storing electricity by compressing and later re-expanding air is usually less efficient (75%), since rapid compression heats up a gas, increasing its pressure, making further compression difficult. The electric energy lost in energy storage drives up the overall cost of generating reliable electricity from wind or solar power. Another cost of energy storage is the capital investment required for the energy storage system. These costs are driven by the weight of material or volume of containment vessels needed to store a given amount of energy, termed energy density (kWh/kg or kWh/liter), again characteristic of each energy storage form. Pumped hydroelectric and compressed air energy storage (CAES) are currently economic for utilities when relying on natural geologic formations and the cheapest, most abundant substances (i.e. elevated water and compressed air). In these situations the cost of energy storage capacity can be very low (<$5/kWh 1) Unfortunately the scale and location-specific nature of energy storage in natural formations is likely to render it of limited benefit to small scale distributed renewables. Available pumped hydro and CAES capacities could prove small in relation to the overall amount of future global renewable 1 There can sometimes be confusion between the capital cost of electricity storage capacity (given throughout this paper in $/kWh of storage capacity) and the cost of electric power delivered from storage, usually given in $/kWh or cents/kWh). Generally, the cost of storage capacity ranges from ~ $5-500 $/kWh, and is amortized over many (i.e. thousands) charge-discharge cycles to determine its contribution to the price of electricity delivered from storage.
A Renewables Intensive Energy Future Renewable energy technologies have experienced dramatic technical and economic advances over the past several decades, and now stand at a point where they are already contributing significantly to energy and electricity production in a number of states, provinces, and nations. Over the next five decades solar and wind energy could provide well over one third of electricity demand, with biomass meeting another 20% (Herzog, et al., 2001). Combining this potential growth with nuclear systems that currently provide 20% of U. S. electricity, and with an acceleration of the current 1-2% annual rate of decarbonization and efficiency improvements, our energy system could look very different in 2050 than it does today. In sum, these technologies-all largely available today, or in the near term-could readily provide a total of 70% or more of electricity from carbon-free sources-even for a future requiring significantly more energy than the current global supply capacity of ~10 TW demand. A commitment to energy R&D efforts, distributed energy capacity, energy storage and market-support policies could make this future a reality. This process would be greatly facilitated if economic and accounting practices were to evolve to value the full social and environmental costs of energy, services (Kammen and Pacca, 2004). This vision of an economically, politically, and environmentally sustainable energy future depends critically on a commitment to improving market access today, for low-carbon energy technologies today to facilitate the dramatic growth of this sector. The central message of this paper is that this transition will be require continued research and development, but it can be achieved as an evolution from our current energy system. To accomplish this the markets, solar, wind, and biomass energy must be dramatically expanded, and power transmission and storage systems must be overhauled to permit distributed energy management to interface with regional grids. This transformation, while entirely possible, will take a level of leadership and energy integration that we have realized to date only in brief fits and starts. A commitment will be needed to national energy security, and to international leadership in clean energy technology development and deployment. Technological and Market Outlook for Distributed Renewable Energy Systems Wind energy is the world's fastest growing energy source on a percentage basis, at 32%/year growth for the past five years. Globally there was over $7 billion in wind energy investment in
Prosperity for everyone on Earth by 2050 will require a sustainable source of electricity equivalent to 3 to 5 times the commercial power currently produced. Because of the low average incomes in developing countries, however, this energy must be provided at one-tenth the present total cost per kilowatt-hour. Solar-power sta- tions constructed on the moon from common lunar materials could provide the clean, safe, low-cost commercial electric energy needed on Earth.
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
The gas industry and federal government face tremendous challenges to deliver the supply required by the increasingly gas-dependent electricity demand in the United States of the 21 st century. The U.S. will be hard pressed to build the large number of Liquid Natural Gas terminals that provide the only significant alternative to North American supply increases. Huge new reserves of gas must be brought to market to offset the natural exponential decline in known gas production from within the borders of the United States that coincides with this demand increase. We must explore, discover, appraise, develop, and exploit the vast new gas reserves discovered in waters deeper than 1500 meters in the ultra-deepwater Gulf of Mexico if we are to have any hope of meeting this demand increase. If we fail, gas will have to be rationed between heating and power, particularly in the Northeast, a choice for which no one will want to be responsible. Figure 1. Filling the ever increasing gap between U.S. supply and demand (Source EAI/DOE) will require voluminous production of hydrocarbons from the ultra-deepwater Gulf of Mexico, as well as from deep continental supplies, coal bed methane, and new Alaskan, Canadian, and Mexican pipelines. Each year's discoveries are tracked to show their depletion over time in the inlay above (each color is the decline in production from wells drilled that year and tracked for the rest of their productive life).
Roger N. Anderson
added 10 research items
Conversion to lean energy management will be required to insure economic development in ultradeep-water regions. Software-controlled lean systems integration will drive innovation toward breakthrough cost and cycle-time savings. This move will utilize commercial off the shelf (COTS) software widely used in the communications, chemical processing, aerospace, automotive , and other high-tech manufacturing industries, but not yet used for lean management in the upstream energy industry.
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items
NextView moves beyond the commodity-based approach of commercial imagery acquisition and seeks to assure access, priority tasking rights, volume (area coverage) and broad licensing terms from the next series of high-resolution U.S. commercial imagery satellites.
Roger N. Anderson
added 4 research items
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
MAIN CONCLUSION: Wind & solar are fastest-growing renewable power sources, but unlikely to grow from present ~ 1% of supply to 10% by 2025 and >30% by 2050 without major incentives, R & D and demonstration of enabling technologies. There are no known show-stoppers.
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
A system, comprising: at least one dynamic contingency avoidance and mitigation system (DCAMS) control console, wherein the at least one DCAMS console is configured to display a predictive load resource management output indicative of a simulation modeling of at least one integrated Demand Response (iDR) action which is related to implementing at least one resource-related activity over at least one distribution grid for at least one resource, wherein the at least one resource-related activity is at least one of: at least one resource curtailment activity and at least one resource supply activity.
Roger N. Anderson
added 5 research items
The 4D Business Control System of the future that we envisage automatically ranks, guides, and warns by the use of "hotlists" customized to incentives for people with critical roles in the organization. Hotlist content is packaged on the web so actions are one click away. Hotlists are based on light weight, peer-to-peer web services, and they utilize task management, rule-based decision-making, decision trees, neural network agents and "credit-mapping" based on a “Suitability Matrix” to provide the action generator for the 4D BCS.
People, processes and manufacturing must be wired together to produce such efficiencies and profitability. The image below represents our vision of a next generation of 4D Business Control Simulator (BCS) for the energy industry. Oil and Power segments of the energy industry have well developed command- and-control centers, but they are not built for post 9/11 threat assessment.
A new “Lean Management” paradigm shift is required to move from the “silo-ed” project-by-project design and execution prevalent in the energy industry now to the systems integration approach envisaged for the Trust Fund R&D program. This proposal first details how such paradigm shifts to Lean Management have been accomplished by the automotive and aerospace industries, but not before they “hard-wired” their process design and execution with “Knowledge Management Software Tools”.
Roger N. Anderson
added 3 research items
MY VITA as of June 1, 2020, with newest Patent Numbers issued for 5 new Continuation Patents.
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
Introducing DRETA – Objectives of the Columbia Proof-of-Concept Center In response to the NYSERDA PON, we propose creating a proof-of concept center, the Downstate Regional Energy Technology Accelerator (DRETA). DRETA will be a virtual incubator with the primary objective of creating and fostering more – and more successful – clean energy start-ups based on promising technology emerging from all of Downstate New York’s outstanding research institutions. DRETA will do this by directly supporting start-up efforts both pre-launch and post-launch, bringing these technology ventures towards successful commercialization. Our overarching goal will be to help drive new businesses, job creation, and application of clean energy technologies across New York State.
Roger N. Anderson
added a research item
Lean Management at Boeing allowed the X-45 Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle to go from initial design to full flight in 54 weeks. See the accompanying Article"Visualization of the Advanced Digital Enterprise" by Wayne Esser and Roger Anderson.
Roger N. Anderson
added 2 research items