Project

Immigrant German Election Study II: A Local Panel Study of Immigrant-Origin Voters during the Electoral Campaign of the 2021 Bundestag Election

Goal: IMGES II focuses on effects of election campaigns among Germans with and without migration background. For the first time, we are able to analyse how immigrant-origin voters react to the election campaigns with their electoral & campaign behaviour and how they respond to group-specific actions by parties, candidates, and political organisations as well as to media content.

Date: 1 March 2021 - 29 February 2024

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Project log

Achim Goerres
added an update
I am giving a presentation on our joint findings Sabrina Jasmin Mayer Jonas Elis Dennis Spies on German voters of Turkish descnet in German
Landeszentrale für politische Bildung
Zentrum für Türkeistudien Essen
Essen is a major city in the shadow of Duisburg.
Find the slides here
 
Sabrina Jasmin Mayer
added a research item
This brief in German summarises the descriptive findings from the Immigrant German Election Study II (IMGES II). The study is a panel election survey between March and November 2021 in Duisburg, Germany. It traces the campaign experiences of four random samples of German citizens: of Turkish descent, Russian German, of any other immigrant background and those of no immigrant origin.
Achim Goerres
added an update
Achim Goerres will give a presentation about first results at the internal gesis colloquium (joint work with Sabrina Jasmin Mayer Dennis C. Spies Jonas Elis )
on 07 April 2022
The Experiences of Immigrant-Origin Voters in the 2021 Bundestag Campaign:
Evidence from the Panel Survey of the Immigrant German Election Study II in Duisburg
Some mentioned relevant findings
  1. Gaps in political interest and participation still visible between native and immigrant-origin voters, but small.
  2. The campaign activated all groups across the board.
  3. The core dynamic of the electoral campaign, rising star Scholz, declining Laschet, visible across all groups.
  4. Overall patterns of persistent differences, but very similar dynamics across time.
 
Achim Goerres
added an update
Jonas Elis gave a presentation about the effectiveness of in-person canvassing at a workshop organised at the Federal Office for Statistics Wiesbaden
Find the paper here
 
Achim Goerres
added an update
We received the full three-panel survey data on 20 January and can finally work with them. This has been the hardest ride of our professional lives:
losing a collaborator and close friend Dennis Spies
collecting interviews during a pandemic and partial lockdown
Jonas Elis and Achim Goerres are giving the presentation of first results on 26 January in German at 1200-1300 Duisburg time on Zoom.
It is a public presentation open to anyone. Login details can be found here
 
Achim Goerres
added an update
Achim Goerres will give a presentation on his joint paper with Jonas Elis Sabrina Jasmin Mayer and Dennis C. Spies remotely at the DEZIM Institute Berlin on 22 September at 1330 to 1500 Berlin time
Integration and Transnational Political Interest among Immigrant-Origin Voters:
An Analysis of Germans from Turkey and their Children in the Immigrant German Election Study 2017
Login details for participants can be found here
The slides are attached to this update.
 
Achim Goerres
added an update
We have produced the first version of a new paper
Integration and Transnational Political Interest among Immigrant-Origin Voters:
An Analysis of Germans from Turkey and their Children in the Immigrant German Election Study 2017
Accessible at the Social Science Research Network
Like all remaining work from the Immigrant German Election Study, we dedicate this to Dennis Spies who passed away on 19 June 2021.
 
Achim Goerres
added an update
With deep sadness, Sabrina Jasmin Mayer Jonas Elis and I have to announce that our Co-PI, co-author, mentor and friend Dennis C. Spies passed away unexpectedly on Saturday, 19 June 2021.
Prof Dennis Christopher Spies was a full professor of political economy at Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf. After having obtained a PhD and Habilitation from the University of Cologne and having worked as assistant professor there, he became associate professor at the University of Southern Denmark at Odense for a year and then took up a prestigious Heisenberg professorship, co-funded by the German Research Foundation, in Düsseldorf in 2020.
Dennis had three main topics of expertise: comparative party politics in Europe, especially Populist and Radical Right Parties (e.g. Spies/Franzmann 2011), the nexus between immigration and welfare state in advanced industrial economies (e.g. Spies 2018) and the voting behaviour of immigrant-origin citizens in Germany (e.g. Spies/Mayer/Goerres 2020). Dennis was particularly strong at synthesising theoretical work from different traditions, translating empirical findings into clear text and framing the overall argument. Thereby, he was well equipped to collaborate successfully with a multitude of scholars.
Dennis Spies was the first of his family to go to university. He grew up in the German Lower Rhineland in Willich, the only child of a kindergarten teacher and a bar owner. Throughout his adult life, he maintained an admirably broad network of friends from all walks of life and could communicate well with anyone, regardless of social status. At his farewell party in Cologne in 2019, scientists, students, gym and bar acquaintances, childhood friends and former co-students mingled merrily.
With taking up the professorship in Düsseldorf in 2020, Dennis had accomplished his dream to become a tenured professor close to his parents while being able to live in his beloved Cologne, a city where he lived for almost 20 years.
Dennis Christopher Spies passed away unexpectedly on 19 June 2021 aged 40. He will be greatly missed by his family and friends as well as by all of his collaborators, colleagues and students.
References
  • Spies, Dennis C. /Franzmann, Simon T. (2011): A Two-Dimensional Approach to the Political Opportunity Structure of Extreme Right Parties in Western Europe, West European Politics, 34:5, 1044-1069, DOI: 10.1080/01402382.2011.591096
  • Spies, Dennis C, (2018): Immigration and Welfare State Retrenchment: Why the US Experience is not Reflected in Western Europe, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Spies, Dennis C. /Mayer, Sabrina J. /Goerres, Achim (2020): What are we missing? Explaining Immigrant-Origin Voter Turnout with Standard and Immigrant-Specific Theories, Electoral Studies, 102103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2019.102103
 
Achim Goerres
added an update
Since 24 March 2021, we have been recruiting randomly selected German voters in the city of Duisburg for a three-panel telephone survey.
Today (24 May), we published a preprint research note about the measures we took to increase the response rate during Covid-19 field operations.
Goerres/Elis/Mayer/Spies
How to Increase Survey Response and Manage the Postal and Face-to-Face Field Work of Participant Recruitment during the Covid-19 Pandemic:
A Note with Preliminary Evidence from Immigrant-Origin and Native Voters in a German Metropolis in Spring 2021
This note presents preliminary evidence from a postal and face-to-face recruitment field for a telephone survey during the Covid-19 pandemic. Drawn from the city register of Duisburg, a metropolis of 500,000 inhabitants, voters eligible for the September 2021 Bundestag elections are the target population. They are stratified into four groups by onomastic classification: native Germans, Germans of Turkish Descent, Germans with a (Post-) Soviet background and Germans of any other immigrant origin. This note presents ten measures of optimising the recruitment of individuals from these four groups under the constraints of an all-encompassing high-incidence pandemic with distance measures and curfews in place, with closed shops and schools and reduced other care facilities. In addition, the report puts forward statistical analyses of some measures applied in an experimental design and estimates the overall and per-person-recruited costs.
Overall, the pandemic forced us to make drastic changes to research design and field organisation and to invest much more time and money than planned. Especially overburdened postal deliveries and restrictive policies for public places made the endeavour most difficult. So far, the ongoing fieldwork has produced a response rate of 8.2 % (only individuals willing to participate in telephone interview) with 11.0 % as a likely expected outcome. One individual recruited to take part in the telephone panel survey costs an estimated 53-71 €.
Early-bird incentives produced a positive response (meaning the willingness to partake in the survey) of 5.5 % compared to 4.0 % among those without early-bird incentives. The most effective measure to boost overall positive response among initial non-responders was in-person canvassing with unconditional incentive (21.3 %) instead of postal reminders (9.9 %). Canvassing a smaller group of people in person proved to be as costly as reminding a larger group of people in writing: we estimated costs of 60-61 € per additionally recruited survey participants through either channel.
 
Achim Goerres
added an update
  1. Can campaigns facilitate or hinder the political integration of immigrant-origin Germans, or both for different sub-groups?
  2. Are Germans of immigrant origin more likely to decide their vote late because of lower levels of party identification? Are they more susceptible to campaign dynamics because of that?
  3. Does the higher heterogeneity of personal networks among immigrant-origin Germans increase cross-pressures, thus decreasing their turnout?
  4. What do the dynamics of the campaign among native and immigrant origin voters in a metropolis tell us about modern electoral democracy?
 
Sabrina Jasmin Mayer
added an update
Finally we received the acceptance of funding by the DFG for IMGES II, the successor to the First Migrant Election Study which can be found here: http://bit.ly/imges_rg.
In this project we include for the first time a dynamic perspective by repeatedly surveying individuals from one local context during one electoral campaign as part of the 2021 Bundestag election. In particular, we focus on two questions: how immigrant-origin voters react to the election campaigns with their electoral behaviour (turnout and vote choice) and campaign behaviour (talking about the campaign, trying to convince others, volunteering, etc.), and how they respond to group-specific actions by parties, candidates, and political organisations as well as to media content.
We will conduct a panel study in the city of Duisburg with random samples of (1) Germans with a post-Soviet background, (2) Germans with a Turkish background and (3) Germans with no migration background (as a comparison group), during the campaign for the German federal election of 2021. Respondents will be surveyed in three major waves over a 6-month period. In addition, we will collect additional local- and national-level contextual data and will merge these data with the survey data.
 
Sabrina Jasmin Mayer
added a project goal
IMGES II focuses on effects of election campaigns among Germans with and without migration background. For the first time, we are able to analyse how immigrant-origin voters react to the election campaigns with their electoral & campaign behaviour and how they respond to group-specific actions by parties, candidates, and political organisations as well as to media content.