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EU Climate Policy Analyses

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Emil Dimanchev
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The EU is divided over whether to make changes to its climate targets following the Paris Agreement. According to the European Commission, the EU’s target to cut emissions by at least 40 percent by 2030, approved prior to the Paris COP, is in line with the Paris Agreement. This is because, the Commission states, the 40 percent target places the EU on track for an 80 percent reduction by 2050, which the EU has defined as its domestic contribution to the 2°C goal. However, we find that the 40 percent target keeps the EU off track towards its 80 percent target. Moreover, we note that the post-2020 EU ETS legislation proposed by the Commission puts off efforts to reduce emissions and relies on uncertain technological improvements to help the EU deliver its 80 percent target. These findings call into question the credibility of EU’s plan to deliver on its contribution to the 2°C goal.