Project

EOStat – Services for Earth Observation-based statistical information for agriculture

Goal: The project aims to develop methods for a collection of statistical information about agricultural production and methods for a control of farmers’ activity in Poland using satellite data. CBK PAN is responsible for the following tasks:

- Development of procedures for training/validation data collection
- Development of algorithms for:
- Crop classification based on SAR Sentinel-1 images
- Crop classification based on synergistic use of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images
- Toolboxes development for:
- Automatic downloading and pre-processing of satellite images
- Automatic crop classification
- Aggregation routine of crop classification maps for verification of crop diversification
- Development of a methodology for comprehensive verification of Ecological Focus Areas (EFA) for the requirements of direct support and greening systems

Project is realised in the consortium composed by: IGIK (responsible for the development of methods for crop growth monitoring, yield prediction, detection of critic situations for crop), Kappazeta – development of an approach for monitoring of maintenance of permanent grasslands; and CBK PAN.
Polish Statistics and the Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture act as a Steering Board and the end-users.

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Project log

Edyta Wozniak
added a research item
Crop classification is a crucial prerequisite for the collection of agricultural statistics, efficient crop management, biodiversity control, the design of agricultural policy, and food security. Crops are characterized by significant change during the growing season, and this information can be used to improve classification accuracy. However, capturing variation in vegetation cover requires a reliable source of valid data. Sentinel-1 radar images are a good candidate, as they supply information about Earth’s surface every six days, independent of weather and light conditions. In this paper, we present a method for crop classification based on radar polarimetry. We propose a set of multi-temporal indices derived from time series Sentinel-1 images that aim to characterize crop phenology. A big data, object-oriented classification technique is developed and tested on 16 crop types for the whole of Poland. Our analysis found that overall accuracy varied (regionally) from 86.36 to 89.13% in 2019, and from 85.95 to 89.81% in 2020. F1 scores for individual crops varied from 0.73 to 0.99, and the use of our multi-temporal phenological indices increased F1 scores by about 0.14 compared to calculations using only basic parameters. Results obtained for the whole country demonstrate the efficacy of the method and its resistance to environmental conditions.
Jędrzej S. Bojanowski
added a research item
Timely crop yield forecasts at a national level are substantial to support food policies, to assess agricultural production, and to subsidize regions affected by food shortage. This study presents an operational crop yield forecasting system for Poland that employs freely available satellite and agro-meteorological products provided by the Copernicus programme. The crop yield predictors consist of: (1) Vegetation condition indicators provided daily by Sentinel-3 OLCI (optical) and SLSTR (thermal) imagery, (2) a backward extension of Sentinel-3 data (before 2018) derived from cross-calibrated MODIS data, and (3) air temperature, total precipitation, surface radiation, and soil moisture derived from ERA-5 climate reanalysis generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The crop yield forecasting algorithm is based on thermal time (growing degree days derived from ERA-5 data) to better follow the crop development stage. The recursive feature elimination is used to derive an optimal set of predictors for each administrative unit, which are ultimately employed by the Extreme Gradient Boosting regressor to forecast yields using official yield statistics as a reference. According to intensive leave-one-year-out cross validation for the 2000–2019 period, the relative RMSE for voivodships (NUTS-2) are: 8% for winter wheat, and 13% for winter rapeseed and maize. Respectively, for municipalities (LAU) it equals 14% for winter wheat, 19% for winter rapeseed, and 27% for maize. The system is designed to be easily applicable in other regions and to be easily adaptable to cloud computing environments such as Data and Information Access Services (DIAS) or Amazon AWS, where data sets from the Copernicus programme are directly accessible.
Jędrzej S. Bojanowski
added a research item
Timely crop yield forecasts at national level are substantial to support food policies, to assess agricultural production and to subsidize regions affected by food shortage. This study presents an operational crop yield forecasting system for Poland that employs freely available satellite and agro-meteorological products provided by the Copernicus programme. The crop yield predictors consist of: (1) vegetation condition indicators provided daily by Sentinel-3 OLCI (optical) and SLSTR (thermal) imagery, (2) a backward extension of Sentinel-3 data (before 2018) derived from cross-calibrated MODIS data, (3) air temperature, total precipitation, surface radiation, and soil moisture derived from ERA-5 climate reanalysis generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The crop yield forecasting algorithm is based on thermal time (growing degree days derived from ERA-5 data) to better follow the crop development stage. The recursive feature elimination is used to derive an optimal set of predictors for each administrative unit, which are ultimately employed by the Extreme Gradient Boosting regressor to forecast yields using official yield statistics as a reference. According to intensive leave-one-year-out cross validation for 2000–2019 period, the relative RMSE for NUTS-2 units are: 8% for winter wheat, and 13% for winter rapeseed and maize. Respectively, for the LAU units it equals 14% for winter wheat, 19% for winter rapeseed, and 27% for maize. The system is designed to be easily applicable in other regions and to be easily adaptable to cloud computing environments (such as DIAS or Amazon AWS), where data sets from the Copernicus programme are directly accessible.
Jan Pawel Musial
added a research item
Radiometers such as the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) mounted aboard a series of NOAA and MetOp (Meteorological Operational) polar-orbiting satellites provide 4-decade-long global climate data records (CDRs) of cloud fractional cover. Generation of such long datasets requires combining data from consecutive satellite platforms. A varying number of satellites operating simultaneously in the morning and afternoon orbits, together with satellite orbital drift, cause the uneven sampling of the cloudiness diurnal cycle along a course of a CDR. This in turn leads to significant biases, spurious trends, and inhomogeneities in the data records of climate variables featuring the distinct diurnal cycle (such as clouds). To quantify the uncertainty and magnitude of spurious trends in the AVHRR-based cloudiness CDRs, we sampled the 30 min reference CM SAF (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites – EUMETSAT – Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring) Cloud Fractional Cover dataset derived from Meteosat First and Second Generation (COMET) at times of the NOAA and MetOp satellite overpasses. The sampled cloud fractional cover (CFC) time series were aggregated to monthly means and compared with the reference COMET dataset covering the Meteosat disc (up to 60 deg N, S, W, and E). For individual NOAA and MetOp satellites the errors in mean monthly CFC reach ±10 % (bias) and ±7 % per decade (spurious trends). For the combined data record consisting of several NOAA and MetOp satellites, the CFC bias is 3 %, and the spurious trends are 1 % per decade. This study proves that before 2002 the AVHRR-derived CFC CDRs do not comply with the GCOS (Global Climate Observing System) temporal stability requirement of 1 % CFC per decade just due to the satellite orbital-drift effect. After this date the requirement is fulfilled due to the numerous NOAA and MetOp satellites operating simultaneously. Yet, the time series starting in 2003 is shorter than 30 years, which makes it difficult to draw reliable conclusions about long-term changes in CFC. We expect that the error estimates provided in this study will allow for a correct interpretation of the AVHRR-based CFC CDRs and ultimately will contribute to the development of a novel satellite orbital-drift correction methodology widely accepted by the AVHRR-based CDR providers.
Edyta Wozniak
added a project goal
The project aims to develop methods for a collection of statistical information about agricultural production and methods for a control of farmers’ activity in Poland using satellite data. CBK PAN is responsible for the following tasks:
- Development of procedures for training/validation data collection
- Development of algorithms for:
- Crop classification based on SAR Sentinel-1 images
- Crop classification based on synergistic use of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images
- Toolboxes development for:
- Automatic downloading and pre-processing of satellite images
- Automatic crop classification
- Aggregation routine of crop classification maps for verification of crop diversification
- Development of a methodology for comprehensive verification of Ecological Focus Areas (EFA) for the requirements of direct support and greening systems
Project is realised in the consortium composed by: IGIK (responsible for the development of methods for crop growth monitoring, yield prediction, detection of critic situations for crop), Kappazeta – development of an approach for monitoring of maintenance of permanent grasslands; and CBK PAN.
Polish Statistics and the Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture act as a Steering Board and the end-users.