Project

Climate change mitigation: modelling economic policies

Goal: Using large-scale empirical modelling to assess the mix of policies at the national and international levles to mitigate the emissions of GHGs effectively, efficiently and equitably.

Date: 1 October 1989

Updates
0 new
1
Recommendations
0 new
0
Followers
0 new
6
Reads
0 new
31

Project log

Terry Barker
added 2 research items
The way forward is in international agreement to establish a global carbon market, with the ultimate aim of decarbonising the global economy. A good starting point is a scheme covering international activities such as aviation and shipping, with a cap-and-trade scheme to achieve zero net emissions by 2050, and auctioning of revenues to support low-carbon alternatives to fossil fuels in developing countries through a greatly expanded clean development mechanism. Such a scheme, if well managed, could provide a strong, rising and predictable carbon price to provide the signal for more general national and international action.
This article assesses the feasibility of a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 using a large-scale Post Keynesian simulation model of the global energy-environment-economy system. The main policy to achieve the target is a carbon price rising to 100/tCO2 by 2050, attained through auctioned CO2 permits for the energy sector, and carbon taxes for the rest of the economy. This policy induces technological change. However, this price is insufficient, and global CO2 would be only about 15% below 2000 levels by 2050. In order to achieve the target, additional policies have been modelled in a portfolio, with the auction and tax revenues partly recycled to support investment in low-GHG technologies in energy, manufacturing and transportation, and `no-regrets' options for buildings. This direct support supplements the effects of the increases in carbon prices, so that the accelerated adoption of new technologies leads to lower unit costs. In addition the 100/tCO2 price is reached earlier, by 2030, strengthening the price signal. In a low-carbon society, as modelled, GDP is slightly above the baseline as a consequence of more rapid development induced by more investment and increased technological change.
Terry Barker
added an update
I have reviewed and sorted them, adding full text where available.
 
Terry Barker
added a project goal
Using large-scale empirical modelling to assess the mix of policies at the national and international levles to mitigate the emissions of GHGs effectively, efficiently and equitably.
 
Terry Barker
added 25 research items