COVID19 vaccines increase COVID19 spread

Data from the Israeli Health Ministry dashboard, accessed 8VIII2022 Y-axis, blue-daily confirmed cases, green-daily cumulated percentage of the population with updated vaccination status, meaning less than 6 months since last injection when more than 1 injection. X-axis, date in May-August 2022. Cases decrease in parallel with cumulative percentage of Israelis with updated vaccination status, which means that for those with more than 1 injection, the last dose must be since a most 6 months.

The 1st panel are the daily new confirmed worldwide COVID19 cases since early 2020 until May 11 2022, COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info). Mass vaccination inducing leaky non-sterilizing short-term variant specific immune reactions causes repeated, increasing pandemic waves. The 2nd panel is its mirror image which reminds what a natural pandemic to a new disease would look like. Naïve populations whose immune systems never met the new virus have high initial infection rates which decay over time thanks to building individual and population immunity.

The Danish Statens Serum Institut published on December 13 2021 the "COVID-19 rapport om Omikronvarianten". In Table 4 on page 6, it shows numbers of infections by omicron vs other variants in 4 vaccination categories, no injection, 1 injection, 2 injections, and 3 injections. Their graphical representation is below. It is most likely that all vaccination categories have the same probability of exposure to omicron, yet risks of developing an infection as compared to other variants increase with numbers of injections. Omicron apparently has low virulence, which would enable the vaccinated to develop natural immunity at low risks despite vaccination. Natural immunity is for now more efficient and general against more variants, and more long-lived than injection-induced immunity. However, this is at the condition that injections do not cause longterm immunodeficiency. The linear pattern in the above figure is not encouraging, because the effect of the different injections on being infected by a new variant, omicron, is independent of the time since that injection occurred. The time since the 3d injection is on average much shorter than the time since the 2nd injection, however effects on omicron infection rates increase linearly with injection number. In that sense, an exponential increase of percentages of omicron infections would be better news, as it would indicate waning effects of injections on the versatility of the immune system. Longterm effects of injections seem cumulative. These include the decrease in versatility of the immune system as shown by omicron statistics in the above figure, and likely associated autoimmune effects, and other effects on fertility, and oncogenicity.

Daily Israeli COVID19 case numbers are parallel for vaccinate and unvaccinated individuals. The summer 2021 increase in severe cases occurred first among the vaccinated, the increase among the unvaccinated occurred about 1 week later. This suggests that more pathologically aggressive viral forms evolved among the vaccinated and secondarily infected the unvaccinated. Percentages of severe and fatal cases are greater among the vaccinated (with 2 or 3 injections) than among the unvaccinated.

Country fertility rates for 2021 are inversely proportional to female vaccination rates in these countries. The association remains statistically significant after accounting for various plausible confounding effects, such as country GD per capita and 2019 fertility.

1. Infection rates between 1st and 2nd Pfizer injections are twice those before the 1st dose, and symptoms are systematically more frequently more severe for the infected and injected during the injection period than the un-injected. 2. Several months after injections, percentages of severe cases are also greater for the injected than for those who were not injected. 3. A new wave of COVID19 deaths started in July and coincides with the start of the 3d injection rollout in Israel. 4. Percentages of fully "vaccinated" COVID19 cases per age class correspond to percentages of fully "vaccinated" for that age class.

Daily August 2021 Israeli COVID19 cases almost double those of 2020 despite massive vaccination

In Israel, the late spring wave in 2021 is delayed by 3-4 weeks but slopes of the 2020 and 2021 late spring wave are very similar.

The dynamics of daily new COVID19 cases in April 2020 compared to April 2021, postvaccination

Vaccination on day T increases daily Israeli COVID19 cases on day T+9

Weekly COVID19 vaccination in total populations (ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations) increases weekly total mortality (euromomo.eu) of children 0-14 years old in January-October 2021 (unvaccinated at that period) from 23 European countries. Above 14 years, results indicate vaccine protection after week 5, which ends after about 20 weeks after vaccination, followed by adverse vaccine effects as shown by positive associations between vaccination and mortality beyond 20+ weeks after 1st injection. These population-level results match previous individual-level results. In those below 15 years, which are unvaccinated, adverse effects start 3-4 weeks after adult vaccination and gradually increase until 18 weeks after adult vaccination. A second wave of positive associations between adult vaccination and child mortality occurs between weeks 27-35 after adult vaccination. At the level of the whole population of children below 15 in these 23 countries, a weekly 1% increase in vaccination of adults results in 29 additional deaths of children, an 15% increase in the average weekly children death rate. Comparing health of unvaccinated children with no, one and both parents vaccinated could test whether vaccine shedding accounts for indirect vaccine effects affecting unvaccinated children, without vaccinating children. Direct adverse vaccination effects are probably stronger than indirect effects, predicting strong or extreme direct postvaccination adverse reactions in the young. Direct vaccine effects probably mask indirect adverse vaccine effects in adult populations.

Since June 10, the R value of Israeli COVID19 confirmed positive cases reached 2. This means that on average, each infected person contaminates 2 other persons. This high contagiousness evolved within the first 10 days of June. Together with the increased COVID19 mortality of 9.8% observed until June 12, this forebears a catastrophic outbreak with high mortality. My interpretation is that these putative new viral strains are selected by vaccination and are vaccine resistant. If the increase in contagiousness is not a statistical artefact, the extreme health situation should break out within 1-2 months. Most other countries should reach the current situation in Israel in 1-2 months, so that the extreme outbreak would occur there in 3-4 months, during autumn, which might make the situation at that time even more extreme. It is unclear whether these new strands will affect differentially vaccinated vs unvaccinated. The hypothesis that vaccination weakens the immune system and channels it towards specific reactions, suggest the vaccinated should be more affected.

Postvaccination Israeli COVID19 death rates increase abruptly since March 2021. In May-June 2021, the increase is age-specific to age classes 30-70. This observation is most compatible with interactions between vaccination, the disease and the human immune system, but does not totally preclude the possibility of a more complex scenario including vaccine escape of vaccine-resistant viral strands selected by vaccination.

For each state, numbers of vaccinations were correlated with ulterior numbers of new COVID19 cases in that state.

Correlation analyses between vaccinations and infections and deaths.

All data sources analysed consistently show COVID19 death rates for the unvaccinated Israeli around 5 promil. Death rates post-Pfizer vaccine 1 st dose are several times greater than 5 promil, besides 2 promil COVID19 deaths for data collected from 20XII2020-1II2021 by Dagan et al on 596618 vaccinated/unvaccinated individuals. We considered total Israeli COVID19 deaths for that period from other sources, numbers of vaccinated and unvaccinated Israeli on 1II2021, and that unvaccinated COVID19 death rates reported in Dagan et al are correct because consistent with other datasources. Dagan et al COVID19 deaths for the vaccinated are underreported and must be 3.3 times greater, resulting in 15.755 promil deaths within the first 44 days after first dose. This suggests biased sampling and possibly fraudulent case exclusions to promote the Pfizer vaccine.

Israeli COVID19 death rates skyrocket from 0.89% in March 2021 to 2.8% in April 2021. COVID19 death rates in India were 0.52% and 0.74% in March and April, respectively. Over 60% of the Israeli population is vaccinated, suggesting that increased death rates are due to vaccination.

Correlations between daily vaccination numbers and daily COVID19 new case numbers

Correlations between daily vaccination numbers and daily COVID19 new case numbers