Archived project

ADAM: ADaptation And Mitigation strategies supporting European Climate Policy

Goal: ADAM supports the EU in the development of post-2012 global climate policies, the definition of European mitigation policies to reach its 2020 goals, and the emergence of new adaptation policies for Europe with special attention to the role of extreme weather events. The main impact of the ADAM project is to improve the quality and relevance of scientific and stakeholder contributions to the development and evaluation of climate change policy options within the European Commission. This helps the EU to deliver on its current medium-term climate policy objectives and help inform its development of a longer-term climate strategy. The core objectives of ADAM are:
- To assess the extent to which existing climate policies can achieve a socially and economically tolerable transition to a world with a global climate no warmer than 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
- To develop a portfolio of longer-term policy options that could contribute to the EU’s 2°C target and targets for adaptation.
- To develop the requirements for climate change appraisal in different contexts to enhance the emergence of innovative mitigation and adaptation strategies.

EU FP6 funding
Consortium led by University of East Anglia (UK)
Project description at: http://cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/78409_en.html

Date: 1 March 2006 - 31 July 2009

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Project log

Terry Barker
added a research item
Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climatechange can be substantially reduced in the mitigationscenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climatechange impacts.
Ulrich Reiter
added 2 research items
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
Serban Scrieciu
added a project goal
ADAM supports the EU in the development of post-2012 global climate policies, the definition of European mitigation policies to reach its 2020 goals, and the emergence of new adaptation policies for Europe with special attention to the role of extreme weather events. The main impact of the ADAM project is to improve the quality and relevance of scientific and stakeholder contributions to the development and evaluation of climate change policy options within the European Commission. This helps the EU to deliver on its current medium-term climate policy objectives and help inform its development of a longer-term climate strategy. The core objectives of ADAM are:
- To assess the extent to which existing climate policies can achieve a socially and economically tolerable transition to a world with a global climate no warmer than 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
- To develop a portfolio of longer-term policy options that could contribute to the EU’s 2°C target and targets for adaptation.
- To develop the requirements for climate change appraisal in different contexts to enhance the emergence of innovative mitigation and adaptation strategies.
EU FP6 funding
Consortium led by University of East Anglia (UK)
 
Serban Scrieciu
added 4 research items
ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems – i.e., adaptation – as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind’s perturbation to global climate to a desirable level – i.e., mitigation. Our work package Mitigation 1 (M1) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The longer-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. Our analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector ana-lysed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renew-ables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). We start from the policy framework developed for mitigation of climate change by the EU and the Member States which can be summarised by the following broad options of climate mitigation policy: • Introduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trading, • Increase of energy efficiency, • Focus on renewable energies, • Set standards and norms that drive technological development, • Include all sectors and all greenhouse gases in the mitigation efforts, and • Establish policies to directly stimulate low carbon technologies. This framework is followed as well in our analysis throughout this deliverable: our assessment is that it would provide a suitable framework to drastically reduce the GHG emissions in Europe by 2050. The details of technologies and policy measures to fit into this framework and to complete the picture of climate policy are presented in this report on a sector-by-sector base for the residential sector, services sector, manufacturing sector, transport sector and energy conversion sector. This comprehensive sectoral analysis is then fed into a macro-economic model to assess the impacts on growth and employment of the proposed climate policy programme. Finally, the potential impacts of the economic crisis on the climate policy programme are discussed.
This study gives a synthesis of a model comparison assessing the technological feasibility and economic consequences of achieving greenhouse gas concentration targets that are sufficiently low to keep the increase in global mean temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. All five global energy-environment-economy models show that achieving low greenhouse gas concentration targets is technically feasible and economically viable. The ranking of the importance of individual technology options is robust across models. For the lowest stabilization target (400 ppm CO2 eq), the use of bio-energy in combination with CCS plays a crucial role, and biomass potential dominates the cost of reaching this target. Without CCS or the considerable extension of renewables the 400 ppm CO2 eq target is not achievable. Across the models, estimated aggregate costs up to 2100 are below 0.8% global GDP for 550 ppm CO2 eq stabilization and below 2.5% for the 400 ppm CO2 eq pathway.
The literature on climate stabilization modeling largely refers to either energy-system or inter-temporal computable general equilibrium/optimal growth models. We contribute with a different perspective by deploying a large-scale macro-econometric hybrid simulation model of the global energy- environment-economy (E3MG) adopting a “New Economics” approach. We use E3MG to assess the implications of a low-stabilization target of 400ppm CO2 equivalent by 2100, assuming both fiscal instruments and regulation. We assert that if governments adopt more stringent climate targets for rapid and early decarbonization, such actions are likely to induce more investment and increased technological change in favor of low-carbon alternatives. Contrary to the conventional view on the economics of climate change, a transition towards a low-carbon society as modeled with E3MG leads to macroeconomic benefits, especially in conditions of unemployment, with GDP slightly above a reference scenario, depending on use of tax or auction revenues. In addition, more stringent action can lead to higher benefits.
Martin Jakob
added 2 research items
To estimate the impact of climate change on the tertiary sector on the European level, its energy demand is modeled for 29 European (EU27+2) countries for two different scenarios, namely a base case scenario with past climate conditions and warmer climate (WC) with T increase between about 1.5°C and 3°C, depending on country and month. A bottom-up model was used that differentiates for each of the countries between five main sectors, namely finance, retail, education, health, hotels and restaurants, and a residual sector. Main drivers of the model, namely the amount of heated and cooled floor area and the specific energy demand for different types of energy services, are on the one hand derived from historical data and from projections from the literature, and on the other hand estimated by dynamic building simulation model runs. For two different climate scenarios, the specific energy demand is simulated for representative building types of different European locations. The simulations differentiate between the main types of energy services, namely lighting, ventilation, cooling, heating and other thermal applications, and reveal the impact of climate change to the energy demand. Due to the warmer climate, non-electricity fuel energy demand which is dominated by space heating in most sub-sectors, is reduced by 16% in 2050, and electricity demand is increased by 7% (by about 300 PJ). As such, the impact of warmer climate is lower than the "regular" electricity demand increase between 2005 and 2050 due to cooling which is estimated to about 500 PJ in the base case (from 310 to 830 PJ).
So far, in most European countries, the amount of energy required for heating is greater by far than the energy used for space cooling on a national basis – even in the service sector. But due to higher internal loads, the proliferation of fashionable glass facades, thermal insulation, and rising standards of comfort, the cooled floor area is steadily increasing. Events like the extraordinary hot summer of 2003 are accelerating this trend and steadily rising mean annual temperatures (1.3°C during the 20th century in Switzerland) are increasing the specific energy demand for space cooling. In this paper, we provide evidence regarding the increasing relevance of thermal discomfort in terms of overheating, due to both building retrofits and climate change. Further, possible changes in heating and cooling energy demand over the next 30 years are explored for two climate variants: mean annual temperatures remaining constant and a second case in which temperatures increase until 2035 by +1°C in winter and +2°C in summer. Te possible impacts on the CO2 emissions in different European locations are evaluated considering the CO2 intensity of the heating fuels, the market penetration of electric heating, and the CO2 intensity of electricity production. For much of Europe, increases in cooling energy demand due to global warming will be outweighed by reductions in the need for heating energy. Depending on the generation mix in particular countries, the net effect on CO2 emissions may be an increase even where overall demand for delivered energy is reduced. Strategies and measures in the building sector to minimize possible negative impacts of climate change on en-ergy demand for heating and cooling are discussed.
Martin Jakob
added 3 research items
This report elaborates two 2-degree scenarios (450 ppm and 400ppm) for Europe until 2050. The research is embedded into a larger framework of a global analysis of climate mitigation policy carried out by the European ADAM project. Our analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis of all GHG emitting sectors in Europe with the objective to carry out a model-based integrated assessment. Depending on the sector analysed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewable sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). We start from the policy framework developed for mitigation of climate change by the EU and the Member States which can be summarised by the following broad options of climate mitigation policy: • Introduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trading, • Increase of energy efficiency, • Focus on renewable energies, • Set standards and norms that drive technological development, • Include all sectors and all greenhouse gases in the mitigation efforts, and • Establish policies to directly stimulate low carbon technologies. This framework is followed as well in our analysis throughout this report: our assessment is that it would provide a suitable framework to drastically reduce the GHG emissions in Europe by 2050. The details of technologies and policy measures to fit into this framework and to complete the picture of climate policy are presented in this report on a sector-by-sector base for the residential sector, services sector, manufacturing sector, transport sector and energy conversion sector. This comprehensive sectoral analysis is then fed into a macro-economic model to assess the impacts on growth and employment of the proposed climate policy programme. Finally, the potential impacts of the economic crisis on the climate policy programme are discussed.